OMG ...........part 3

On to France, where it is also the final round today.

Metz are poor, they are relegated with only 5 wins all season. However, they are at home to PSG who are fielding a complete "b" team and following on from a 4-2 home defeat by Ajaccio last week, the team from the capital can hardly be feared. Odds of 2-1 may look huge by close of play tonight and must be considered value.

Marseille go to Bordeaux knowing that only a win will help their Champions League dreams, we can take a chance at the odds on offer.
Bordeaux may be without as many as 9 players, either rested or unavailable and have nothing to play for, sounds great doesn't it ? Only negative is that Marseille have not won in the wine centre for almost 30 years, still, everything must change.

For the reasons stated earlier I expect goals in the less competitive fixtures, French football is very low scoring in general but recent years have still seen goals increase as the season is winding down. A trend that has continued this year.

3.5 points Metz 3.00 general
3.5 points Marseille 2.60 general
2 points Lyon-Le Mans over 2.5 goals 1.92 asian line
2 points Monaco-Nancy over 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line
3 points Troyes-Nice over 2.25 goals 1.90 asian line

One final post shortly.

Good Luck.

OMG ...........part 2

Wow ! Two unbelievable fixtures in the Bundesliga today.

Wolfsburg-Kaiserslautern, loser is relegated, draw will be enough for the Wolves. Kaiser come into the fixture in better form and showing more fight, came close to beating champions Bayern last week. In a similar game two weeks ago Wolfsburg could have secured their future and lost 3-0 at home to Mainz. Not for the faint of heart, the visitors for me.

Hamburg-Werder Bremen, same scenario at the other end of the spectrum, winner has automatic entry to Champions League group stage and all the riches that brings. Loser must qualify, once again draw is enough for the home team.Let me make this clear, Bremen are without question the second best team in Germany regardless of the result today.
A goalkeeping error robbed them of a CL quarter-final place and they outplayed champions elect, Barcelona for long periods in an earlier group match.

They have rediscovered their scoring boots, scoring eleven goals in last two starts and boast a recent 3-0 victory over Bayern Munich. Hamburg are struggling and have only beaten relegated Cologne in last three matches. Going to strongly favour the visitors, especially on the asian line (level ball) where we have stakes refunded if the match is a draw, the result Hamburg are looking for.

Last round in Bundesliga ALWAYS produces goals, of course line makers know this too and we have to go "over 3", but I am confident that the two selections will.Last three starts of Nurnberg and Hertha have averaged exactly 5 goals, Hannover and Bayer have gone "over" 7/8 meetings.

5 points Bremen level ball 1.96 asian line
3 points Kaiserslautern 2.875 general
2.5 points over 3 goals Nurnberg-Hertha 1.82 asian line
2.5 points over 3 goals Hannover-Leverkusen 1.84 asian line

More to follow.

Good Luck.

OMG .......what a day !

Today threatens to be VERY expensive, I have sooooo much information and sooooo many ideas, it is hard to know where to start. Just going to plough through it in 2-3 blogs over the next couple of hours.

Firstly, not so happy about the golf, joint leader in the US is Adam Scott, noted as coming into form last week and in Europe, Paul Casey, flagged as a certain future winner recently, is three strokes clear at the half way stage. Both were available at 18-1 and I don't have a penny on !

Lets start in Spain for today`s selections. . Today, Alaves must beat neighbours Depotivo La Coruna to have any chance of avoiding relegation, I think they will do so. They also need unmotivated Sociedad to avoid defeat at Espanol, as an extra incentive the Alaves board have offered 30,000 euros per man to their Basque neighbours to get a result . This is common in Spain and not illegal, nothing wrong in offering another team money to win, to lose is another matter !

I expect the games where teams have nothing to play for today to produce goals.Clubs want to leave the fans with positive memories for the summer and the final round tends to produce open,attractive football , with plenty of goals. Taking two "overs" in Spain, my main selection being the fixure in Villareal, visitors Racing have gone "over" in 5 of last 6 and this fixture has averaged 5.25 goals over the last 4 seasons, all "over".

4 points Alaves 2.30 william hill
4 points Villareal-Racing over 2.75 goals 2.06 asian line
3 points Celta-Getafe over 2.5 goals 2.06 asian line

More shortly.

Good Luck.

Division 1 playoffs .........

.......get underway today. I have seen all four teams play recently and it is fair to say that they are all in indifferent form. Maybe I caught them on a bad day but Huddersfield were very poor, their play was one dimensional and they were completely dominated by a Brentford team playing, for most of the match, with only 10 men.

Brentford are struggling with injuries and a small squad, along with Swansea they seem incapable of keeping a clean sheet at present. Both league meetings between these two finished 2-1 to the home team, over the season, both Swans home games and Bees away fixtures have averaged almost 3 goals per game. Think we can expect both teams to score and a 2-2 scoreline is not out of the question at a big price.

Barnsley have collected more points than the other three in the second half of the season and have been beaten only once at Oakwell in 23 starts, they will be boosted by the return of captain, Paul Reid.
Despite the 6,000 visiting Huddersfield supporters, I see a little value in the Tykes on the asian line where a draw will return half our stake.

Today's selections........

2 points AIK STOCKHOLM level ball 2.20 asian line
3 points SWANSEA-BRENTFORD over 2.5 goals 2.15 asian line
1/2 point 2-2 correct score (swans-bees) 17.0 betfair/ 15.0 general
3 points BARNSLEY -1/4 2.00 asian line

4/5 winners yesterday, 6/9 for the week.

Good Luck.

Bet it's Wednesday ........

3 points Middlesbrough +1/4 1.90 asian
3 points Young Boys (Switz) +1/4 2.04 asian
3 points Peterhead (Scotland) +1/4 1.70 asian
3 points Grays-Halifax over 2.5 goals 2.05 asian line
3 points Goteborg -3/4 1.72 asian

Good Luck.

A game of two halves .......

These playoff games are a law unto theirselves. With the second leg coming so quickly after the first, you would expect results to be a little more predictable, however, time and time again I have seen a team down and out after the first tie, turn things around in the return.

Not saying that Palace will be heading to Cardiff at the end of the month, turning round a 3 goal deficit is probably beyond them, but feel that they will put on more of a show tonight. They have to go for it, Watford seem sure to sit back and Palace will have 3 strikers on for at least half of the game. If they can score first, who knows, once a team get nervous anything can happen.

I expect goals tonight, would not put anyone off taking Palace at the 3.20 available with Centrebet and the exchanges, but think I will take the "overs" on the asian market. This will be my only selection for today, the "over 2.5 " with Redbet and Betfair at circa 2.28 is also perfectly acceptable.


4 points WATFORD-PALACE over 2.25 goals 1.95 asian line

Good Luck.

Monday morning blues ...........

I am fed up this morning.

My beloved Brentford F.C. have blown automatic promotion (only 12 points out of possible 33 in last 11 games ) and are once again heading into the playoffs, this is the 6th time and we are yet to win one ! Finding it hard to work up too much enthusiasm, the club, players and supporters seem shell shocked and worn out. Hope Martin Allen can work some magic before the trip to Wales. Maybe we can slip something into the Swansea players lunch time snacks . Red Army !

Last week was a bit of a struggle but we still managed to make a nice profit, thats 5 winning weeks out of six.

I have three selections for tonight ........

1 point each way Parnassian 10-1 corals 6.50 Windsor (rain has come in time)
3 points AIK- ELFSBORG over 2.5 goals 2.04 asian line
3 points LEEDS UNITED +1/2 1.93 asian line

w/e 07/05/06 profit + 5.46 points
total profit to date + 35.85 points

Good Luck.

4th round scoring ......

Just a couple of lines to explain the golf selections.

Goosen is almost 3 strokes ahead of Furyk for final round scoring this year, starting today just one stroke behind, he looks the likely winner. Furyk looked a little fragile against Baddeley recently.

Adam Scott is almost a full stroke ahead of Micheel and nearly 2.5 ahead of Van Pelt, coming back to form, he looks massively overpriced.

Lucas Glover is a very steady final round scorer and has, on average almost 1.5 strokes in hand of his opponents today.

Golf bets ......

Wachovia Championship
3 points1.40 3 ball GLOVER 2.20 v maruyama/lowery
4 points 1.50 3 ball SCOTT 2.25 v van pelt/micheel
4 points outright GOOSEN 3.00
all with stan james

Sunday bets .......

3points CADIZ 4.30 corals
3 points ALAVES 3.75 corals
3 points SOCIEDAD -1/4 2.15 asian
3 points ASCOLI-LAZIO over 2.75 goals 1.93 asian
4 points ARSENAL-WIGAN over 2.75 goals 2.0 asian
2 points BOLTON-BIRMINGHAM over 2.5 goals 2.22 asian
2 points A VILLA- SUNDERLAND over 2.5 goals 2.05 asian
5 points NAVAL 1.60 general
4 points SIEGEN-BURGHAUSEN over 2.75 goals 1.90 asian
4 points PADERBORN-ERZ AUE over 2.75 goals 1.90 asian

May put some golf up shortly.

Good Luck.

T.G.I.F. ........

... because we have plenty of winners........I know......... famous last words.

3 points Sedan 2.05 william hill
4 points Lorient 2.13 level ball asian line

2.5 points each all OVER 2.25 goals asian line
MONTPELLIER-BASTIA 2.05
LE HAVRE-ISTRES 1.90
GUINCAMP-SETE 1.79
CRETIL- GRENOBLE 1.84
CHATEAUROUX-GUEUGNON 1.94

Good Luck.

Lies,damn lies and statistics .......

Not sure if Mark Twain was a golfer, I suspect not, but golf is a game of statistics, total putts, greens in regulation, driving distance etc.

However, on the USPGA website, one stat stands head and shoulders above all others, at least for betting purposes, "scoring average final round".

When the pressure is on and the big bucks are on the line, who can hold their nerve and who will wilt under the strain. Time and time again the same players produce the goods and others disappoint.

Last week Stuart Appleby ran away with the Shell Houston Open, so much so, that by Sunday, bookies were quoting odds "without the favourite". The only leading contender with a proven R4 record was cash cow, Bob Estes. This man is a money earning machine, he earns $1-$2m EVERY year, yet his own mother would struggle to pick him out of a police line up.

In 2005 he was 14th for final day scoring and 11th in 2004, this on a tour consisting of some 200 of the best players in the world. You could virtually guarantee that he would play his usual game, whatever the course threw at him.


Starting just two shots behind the talented, but erratic, Mathias Gronberg and clear of the rest of the field, he was priced at 5/1 and duly obliged.

The final round 2 balls can be a real gold mine, sometimes pairings can match a player ranked top ten, against another ranked at 180. In real terms, this can be as much as a three stroke difference and a true guide as to how they are likely to perform.

Some of these rankings are as you might reasonably expect, Tiger and the ultra consistent Furyk, Toms and Singh almost always appear in the top 20. However, there are some real surprises, Bart Bryant has been top 10 for each of the last two years, Lucas Glover 14th and 17th and little known Taq Ridings, 2nd in 2004 and top 25 last year.

At the other end, Sergio Garcia has barely made the top 100 in either year and former Masters champion Mike Weir was 123rd in 2004 and 160th last year !

This is information to make money from.

Check back on a regular basis for final round betting advice.

Good Luck.

Racing to find winners ...........

The horse racing selections have been going so well, that we simply have to get involved today ...

1 point ew Loch Verdi 3.00 Folkestone
1/2 point ew Karayel 2.30 Folkestone
1/4 point ew Cesc 2.30 Folkestone
1/2 point ew Practically Perfect 2.20 Redcar
1/2 point ew Ruse 3.50 Redcar
1/4 point ew Hollandia 5.45 Huntingdon
1/2 point ew Sea Map 5.45 Huntingdon

Good Luck.

Wednesday update .......

8 out of 11 winners today and a really nice profit on the week so far.

I will publish the promised golf blog tomorrow, in the meantime, one football bet for Thursday .....

4 points Arsenal 1.67 expekt/1.65 general

The gunners have to win to keep the pressure on Spurs in the race for 4th place.

Good Luck.

Wednesday......... selections only

Firstly,three small horse bets.......
1/2 point each way Harlestone Linn 3.40 Nott
1/2 point each way Steady As A Rock 2.20 Pont
1 point each way Mr. Sandicliffe 2.10 Nott

.... and now the soccer
3 points At Bilbao 1.75 unibet
3 points Osasuna 2.16 level asian
3 points Kaiserslautern 1.86 +1/2 asian
3 points Rennes 2.05 unibet
3 points Ahlen-Furth over 2.5 goals 2.09 pinnacle
4 points Cottbus-Dresden over 2.25 goals 1.92 asian
4 points Rostock-Freiburg over 2.5 goals 1.99 asian
3 points Karlsruhe-Brauns over 2.5 goals 1.80 bet365

Good Luck.

Bank holiday selections

Really good weekend results.

3 points Arsenal 1.33 stan james
4 points Lorient 1.45 general
3 points Arezzo 1.66 bet 365
3 points WBA-WHU over 2.5 goals 2.20 bet 365

Results to date.....
w/e 2/4/06 + 7.5 pts
w/e 9/04/06 +1.885 pts
w/e 16/04/06 -4.3 pts
w/e 23/04/06 + 10.6 pts
w/e 30/04/06 + 14.705 pts
Total profit to date + 30.39 pts

Good Luck.

25/1 winner yesterday .........

Pleasing won at the suggested 25-1 yesterday, infact, all 3 horse racing selections were placed, an each way treble at s.p (20-1,50-1,9-1) would have returned over a 261 point profit !

Little to play for in the Championship final round today, my suggestion is that the teams will try and entertain and we can expect goals and have bet accordingly.

I have written a posting about last round betting on golf, I will put it on the blog early this week.
In the meantime, here are my selections for today ......

Open Espana 2 points each way Robert Karlsson 5-1 (1/5 123) ladbrokes/ corals
3 points Brighton-Stoke over 2.25 goals asia 2.295
3 points Crewe-Millwall over 2.5 goals asia 2.02
2 points Preston-Leeds over 2.25 goals asia 2.295
4 points Reading-QPR over 2.5 goals 1.8 stan james
2 points Sheff Utd-C Palace over 2.5 goals 2.10 bet 365
3 points Chievo-Roma over 2.5 goals 1.92

I may add something later for the USPGA tournament in New Orleans.

Good Luck.

The season is reaching a climax .......

So much at stake today, just cannot believe Middlesbrough have to play 3 tough games inside 96 hours.

3 points Everton 3.0 bet 365
2.5 points Oxford 3.40 corals/stan james
3 points Bristol Rovers 2.075 level ball asian
3 points Swansea 2.37 hills
4 points over 2,5 goals Birmingham-Newcastle 2.22 asia
4 points double Arbroath 1.20 -Cowdenbeath 1.40 general

For the first time I am giving 3 small horse bets, all at huge prices, these are three runners from the John Dunlop team, a stable I think is running into form.

1/2 point each way each
Stoop to Conquer 12-1 bet direct 3.40 Ripon
Soufah 20-1 general 4.30 Leicester
Pleasing 25-1 ladbrokes 6.05 Leicester

Good Luck

Money talks ........

Money talks in football, Real Madrid , argubly the richest club in the world, have won the European cup/ Champions League nine times.

Chelsea, with unlimited funds, are about to claim their second Premier League title in a row, 50 years after their only previous success. Manchester United, with their truly massive worldwide earnings in both sponsorship and shirt sales, had earlier dominated the league and are sure to continue to challenge. In an effort to compete, Arsenal have been forced to leave their beloved Highbury, move to the Emirates Stadium and even ditch the famous red and white shirts, at least for one year.

All this is fairly obvious, but in the lower leagues we can use this knowledge to our advantage. Look for "sleeping giants", clubs that have fallen on hard times but retained their supporter base and are showing signs of a revival.Most will eventually get back to their true position.

For example, Sheffield Wednesday, a premiership club in all but name, have managed to stabilize in the Championship and seem set to make a push to join "The Big Show" in the next year or two.

Carlise United, out of the football league twelve months ago, yet still getting gates approaching 10,000, are about to enter Division 1 and who knows what else is possible.

Nottingham Forest, european champions not too long ago, are now languishing in the 3rd tier of english football, but have started to get their act together. Able to spend £700k on a single player (more than the total yearly budget for some teams at this level) and with gates approaching 30,000, it was only a matter of time. If they manage to get into the playoffs this year, they should be strong favourites to win them. The final at Cardiff would see them with a 50,000 following, a huge advantage over Colchester or Brentford who would struggle to take 20% of that figure.

Hull City were struggling to retain their league status only a couple of years aago, now they are established in the Championship. The rightful place for a team from the 6th biggest city in England and who were commanding gates in excess of 20,000 in the lowest league.

Who else can we look out for ? Surely Leeds United will regain their place in the top teir eventually. Swansea with a new stadium and large supporter base seem sure to reach the Championship and sooner rather than later. Likewise, Bristol City, the west country giants, are far too big a club to lie dormant in Division 1 for too much longer. It may also pay to keep an eye on Blackpool, they appear to have new owners and funding and with the ambitious gaming plans for the area, they could be a team on the up.

Of course the same is true in reverse for the smaller clubs, teams like Crewe, Wimbledon and Swindon, that have over achieved in recent years, will, eventually, find their true level.

If we look at this years Football League, the Abramovich billions have secured the title for Chelsea. In the Championship, Reading , with the Madejski millions, fine stadium and large potential catchment area, have walked away with the title. At the other end, the two teams with the smallest crowds, Crewe and Brighton will be playing at a lower level next year.
OK , Forest have not won Division 1 but may yet earn promotion, it took time to adjust and every other team is "up" for a game against them. Carlisle are easily the biggest club in Division 2 and are going up, probably as champions, tiny Torquay are struggling.

You see the pattern, there will always be exceptions, but on the whole it pays to follow the money.


Two selections for today .............
2 points CLERMONT -1/2 goal asian line 2.175
3 points STADE LAVAL 2.25 william hill

both teams need the points to try and preserve their french division 2 status.

Good Luck.

Tuesday Night Specials ........

3 points Forest Green +1/4 ball asian line 2.00
3 points Barnet +1/4 2.05
3 points Aston Villa -1/4 2.02


The first two selections simply cannot afford to lose tonight and I think the asian handicap is the way to go. One or both may have to settle for a point and we will still earn a profit betting this way.
Man City are in freefall and were outplayed in the reverse fixture just a few weeks ago. Think Villa will win, but just in case Mr Pearce gives City the "hairdryer" treatment, we will go -1/4 ball.

Can't find a bet in the Villareal-Arsenal tie, the spanish team will be better rested, suspect it will go to the wire, good luck to the gunners.

It's a Monday and its raining goals ........

hopefully.......

3 points Fulham-Wigan over 2.5 goals 2.18 betfair
1.5 points over 3.5 goals 3.95 betfair

2.5 points Amiens-Sedan draw 2.80 general

Good Luck

Saturday selections

5 points Portsmouth 1.40 general
2 points M K Dons 2.75 general
4.5 points Berwick 2/9 (1.22) general
3 points Kaiserslautern 2.10 general
2.5 points Nottm Forest 2.10 general
2.5 points Sociedad 3.50 general
3 points Celta Viga 1.80 general
3 points Alaves 2.30 paddy power
5.25 points Morecambe 1.57 stan james
1.5 points Swansea 3.20 stan james
0.25 yankee
SWANSEA-MORECAMBE-NOTTN FOREST-MKD stan james

Asian Open Golf ...........

Only time to give my selections today ...........

Outright
2 points each way M A Jiminez 10-1 (1/4 12345) general
2 points top 5 Jiminez 3.25 (min odds) betfair
2 points top 5 Casey 4.50 (min odds) betfair

Today's 3 balls
1.5 points 00.10(bst) Bjorn 2.25 stan james/tote
1 point 00.30 Singh 3.0 ladbrokes
1.5 points 05.00 Dyson 2.625 victor chandler
2.5 points 05.10 Jiminez 1.80 ladbrokes
0.25 yankee all 4 2.20/3.00/2.50/1.80 ladbrokes

Back tomorrow. Good Luck.

Playing tennis with a hangover .......

is not to be advised. After a quiet night in, sharing a takeaway with some friends and half a case of wine, I played my first tennis of the year yesterday. Despite losing heavily and thinking I was going to throw up every 30 seconds, it went better than I could ever have hoped.
Still nursing a bit of a "head" today, so goodness knows how I would have felt without the exercise !

Huddersfield can move into an automatic promotion place with a two goal win tonight, I understand that Andy Booth will not play, but still have to include them against a limited Chesterfield side. Having seen both teams live this season, I can confirm, that this will not be for the faint hearted, both like to get stuck in.

Rushden and Southport can both move out of the relegation zone with 3 points tonight and I feel goals in the juicy Champions League tie in Milan. Like all football lovers, yes I love football again, my hopes are on a Barcelona- Arsenal final. Ronaldinho and Henry on the same pitch would be memorable.


2 points Huddersfield 2.22 -1 goal asian line
1.5 points Rushden 3.75 stan james
1 point Southport 4.00 stan james
1.5 points over 2.25 goals Milan-Barcelona 2.19 asian

Good Luck

Easter rolls on......and on ......and on ........

Easter, hot cross buns, eggs, four Sundays in a row, will it ever end ? Thankfully, we have football.

I saw some interesting things in the first Easter fixtures and hopefully, we can use them to our advantage today. Watched the Cardiff-Sheff U game on sky, the welsh team looked like they were dreaming of the beach. They have had a good season after the struggles of last year, but feel they can now be opposed, Crewe have finally found some form (too late) and will be unchanged for the 9th match in a row. So, we have winner number one.

Nottm Forest are in fantastic form, with five wins in a row, a playoff place that looked very unlikely a month ago, is now within their grasp. All the teams above them have lost form and are struggling to win, victory today could well leave them in the top 6. They are a massive club at this level, the crowd today will approach 30,000, something most Championship teams can only dream of, surely they have come too far to mess up now.

Accrington earned promotion to the Football League on Saturday, congratulations to them, they have dominated the Conference this year. However, surely they had a little celebration, can they really be "up" for the game today. Visitors Scarborough are in a perilous position and must look for the three points, I cannot pass up the 5.50 on offer.

Milton Keynes were dead and buried a few weeks ago but have given theirselves a lifeline. They recently played Brentford, who are in line for automatic promotion, the Dons lost 1-0 but played the Bees off the park, missing chance after chance. Today they face Hartlepool, the loser will be almost down, the victor will have renewed hope, it should not be a draw as this will not help either. I can only take the team showing the best current form.

Doncaster Rovers seem to have given up on the season, they are set to give several youngsters an outing today, this means we can take a small chance on visitors Walsall. Rovers are a good side, I have seen them three times this year, but they have had horrendous injury problems, next season they will be real contenders in this league. However, for today, it's the Saddlers.

All other selections are the usual motivational picks.

0.4 points Lucky 15 stan james
Milton Keynes 2.25
Crewe 2.375
Nottm Forest 1.57
Stevenage 1.62

1.5 points Scarborough 5.50 stan james
3.5 points Nottm Forest 4/7 (1.57) stan james/bet 365
1 point Crewe 2.375 stan james
1 point Swindon 3.85 centrebet
1.5 points Milton Keynes 2.30
1 point Forest Green 2.375 stan james
1/2 point Walsall 4.0 paddy power/ stan james
1.5 points Stevenage 1.67 blue square
1 point dbl Stevenage-Nottm Forest 1.62 1.57 stan james

When Saturday comes .........

A change of luck perhaps.

All I can say about the football at the moment is, the golf looks good.

So what do we do ? We reload of course, or, in the words of Denny Crane "lock and load".

2 points Elgin 2.0 tote
1 point Hartlepool 2.50 general
1.5 points Nottm Forest 2.40 365/paddy power
1 point Leyton Orient 3.00 redbet/parbet
2 points Lincoln 1.775 pinnacle

any 2,3,4 from 4 11 bets @ 1/4 point tote
Lincoln 1.67
Elgin 2.0
Hartlepool 2.375
Forest 2.40

Good Luck

Good Friday specials ...........

A few notes about four matches taking place tonight ...........

Metz find theirselves drinking in the last chance saloon, a win and nothing less will do. They travel to Toulose, a team in poor form and waiting for their summer vacation.

A win for York can lift them into a playoff place and Cambridge are without one or two starters.

Yeovil are faced with a very difficult trip to Forest on monday and can almost secure their Division 1 status with a win tonight.

Inter have suffered a week of abuse from their supporters, AC will have one eye on next weeks Champions League tie and can ill afford any injuries. A draw is always likely but a level ball bet on the asian handicap, looks the way to go.

1 point Metz 4.50 stan james France 1
1.5 points York 2.50 general Conference
1.5 points Yeovil 2.20 stan james Division 1
1.5 points Inter 2.37 level ball asian line Serie A

News from Italy ..........

Tonight Roma play at home to Palermo in the Italian Cup semi-final 2nd leg, Palermo will go to the final with a draw or win. This would earn them a place in europe next year as final opponents Inter, will qualify through their league position.

What makes this match extremely interesting is the weekend league fixture which is, yes you have guessed it, Palermo- Roma, a vital match for Roma in their quest for a Champions League place.

I do not know if a "deal" has been done, but there are plenty of rumours to this effect, or whether one team will be more motivated tonight and less so at the weekend. However, I feel a bet on Palermo tonight is the right call........

3 points the draw 3.25 stan james
1 point Palermo 5.20 general

There was this irishman, frenchman, german, brazilian, and .........

The only Premiership fixture today may not involve many english players (2-3?), but seems very likely to produce goals.

Portsmouth have scored 11 in their last 4 outings and Arsenal have hit the net 10 times, in the same period. Thierry Henry has a wonderful record against Pompey, scoring 8 times in six meetings !

The European Golf Tour reaches China ! So much for that geography o- level.
Paul Casey is a very talented golfer and seems to be coming into form, he won this event last year, albeit at a different course. I think he will be motivated by missing out on the Masters and the chance to upset/abuse a few more americans, it is time he got his career back on track.

On the US tour, Davis Love returns to Hilton Head where he is FIVE times champion. Maybe he is not in the very best of form but must enter calculations. The same comments can also be applied to last years runner up Jim Furyk and I take these two against the field.

1.5 points each way (1/4 12345) CASEY 11/1 tote
1 point each way LOVE 16/1 general
1/2 point each way FURYK 14/1 general
2 x 1/4 point each way doubles

2 points PORTSMOUTH-ARSENAL over 2.5 goals 2.02 betfair
2 points THIERRY HENRY 2.20 blue square
1 point MIDDLESBORO 2.10 general

Good Luck

They call it "the beautiful game" .........

I love football, just not today. It IS the beautiful game, just not today. I could never be sick of football, but I am today. Of course, I do not include my own, beloved team, in these comments.

Saturday was a disaster, two teams leading 2-0 at half time and both contrive to snatch a draw....... COME ON ! How is this possible ?

Thank the Lord, or the gentleman who invented golf and Bobby Jones for designing the Augusta National g.c. for the about turn in fortune. Mickleson won and Goosen tied for 3rd place, ensuring big profits on the golf and a small one for the week, however unlikely that may have seemed Saturday evening.

Profit/Loss on the week + 1.885 pts

Profit/Loss to date + 9.385 pts

You gotta be brave in the state of Georgia ............

Well, the US Masters has gone pretty much as expected so far, the course is playing tough and experience is key.

Fred Couples, 22 straight cuts here, is in contention and Charles Coody, almost 69 years old, shot an amazing 74, a full ten strokes better than Charles Howell, nearly half a century his junior! Hang your head in shame ! To be fair, I understand that young Charles is in the middle of some swing changes, so maybe we can excuse him but definitely a player to avoid at present.

One or two debutants are playing well but have shown inexperience on occasion, notably Oberholser chipping when he should be putting at the 16th.

Light rain is forecast today, which could make conditions a little easier but Sunday promises sun,
if the greens get hard, this could get brutal. I am happy with my selections at the moment, the cream should continue to rise, no freak results here, only the best of the best can hope to win.

All of the earlier soccer selections are teams desperate to win. Mainz and Strasbourg are battling to avoid relegation, the others are fighting for their positions at the other end of the table. All of their opponents have little, or nothing to play for.

Lets hope they can produce a decent profit. Good Luck.

Saturday ......... and business as usual ...PART 1

This will be a very short post with today's selections only, I will write back in an hour with some information and my views on the first two days of the Masters.

1 pt MAINZ 2.10 general quote Bundesliga
1 pt STRASBOURG 1.90 general quote French league 1
1 pt SWANSEA 2.50 stan james England div 1
3 pts QUEENS PARK 1.50 stanjames/bet365/expekt Scotland div 3
2 pts INVERNESS 1.80 general Scottish Premier
1 pt ABERDEEN 2.10 general Scottish Premier
3 pts NORTHAMPTON 1.55 centrebet England div 2
3.5 pts RANGERS 2/7 (1.285) ladbrokes Scottish Premier

Back Soon

US Masters golf ........

The US Masters gets under way today at the lengthened Augusta National course in Georgia.

Changes made since last year mean that the big hitters are likely to be even more favoured than usual. In a reduced field and with a lot of "dead wood" and doubts about Tiger's form and fathers health, this is a tournament to get involved in.

I will start with a few wagers today and update with some observations tomorrow.........

OUTRIGHT
1 point each way (1/4 12345) MICKLESON 6-1 general quote
1 point each way GOOSEN 10-1 general quote

place only Top 5 (Betfair)
3 points Mickleson 2.4
2 points Goosen 3.8
2 points Els 3.5

Today's 3 ball
1 point SINGH 2.0 to beat STENSON and OBERHOLSER Tote/Stan James/Betfair

Good Luck

A hard way to make an easy living .......

Well, the Italian draw saved the week ..... almost.

2006 has not been kind so far, if something can go wrong, it will and has.

PMA, a positive mental attitude is vital either playing or betting sports but, honestly, it is hard sometimes. For example, in the past week or so I have taken "overs" (3 goals or more) on three football matches, ALL were 1-1 within the first 18 minutes of play. That means with 80% of the game remaining, all that is required is one more goal, something that has already happened twice, simple. Of course now there is an invisible shield protecting both goals.Each game reads the same, or close enough, two disallowed goals,two kicked off the line, four hit the bar/post, one missed penalty and goalkeepers are now playing as if their first born's life depended on it.

So now I must try and stay positive when all I really want to do is throw the tv out of the nearest window and watch it smash into tiny pieces. What I REALLY do not need is the phone to ring as the final whisle blows and my sister-in-law, who has never had a bet in her life, to say, in a very pleasant way, "hi","how are things". I know, evil, isn't she ?


Today`s selections follow, all are "motivational " picks...........

1.5 points YORK CITY 2.25 Expekt ......Conference
1.5 points EXETER 2.70 Centrebet ......... Conference
1 point DARLINGTON 3.05 Expekt....... Division 2
5 points COWDENBEATH 1.22 Centrebet.... Scottish div 3

All selections are, as usual, currently quoted at higher odds on the exchanges, Betfair, Redbet etc.

Profit/Loss to date + 7.5 points

Good Luck

Motivational speaking .......

When it comes to sports betting, motivation is the single most important element.

Think about your own working life, compare days when you are enthused and motivated, to those where you are just going through the motions. In the first, time flies, good things happen, on the bad days, time drags and mistakes occur.

When sportsmen are 'up' for an event, especially playing less motivated opponents, they are prepared to 'go that extra yard' and can be backed with confidence.

Look at events/matches from the players/teams viewpoint.

PGA golf, two tournaments to go before the end of the regular tour. You are 135 on the money list, top 125 will earn you your 'card' for next year, the difference between playing for $5-6m per week on the main tour, or for $100/$200K on the Nationwide. To put this into perspective, last year 125th place finisher on the PGA tour earned in excess of $626,000, same placing on the Nationwide, just over $29, 000, probably not enough to cover expenses.
Pressure? Sure, but real motivation to produce the goods. Likewise, the players ranked around the 30 mark, top 30 will get you into the Tour Championship, where 1st place is worth $1.2m and last place is worth six figures, plenty of television coverage and sponsors very happy.

Tennis is exactly the same, every tournament carries ranking points. Ranking position means direct entry into events, which is automatic prize money and not having to pre-qualify, a huge incentive for the 'journeyman' player.

Soccer, you are a professional footballer, albeit an average one. Your team has struggled all season, now with a handful of matches to play, you are bottom of Division 2. What are your prospects? The bottom 2 teams are relegated, this means that you're no longer in the league, you are in the Conference. Maybe your team will go part time, now you are no longer a full time pro, that's allowing for the club not trimming the squad and letting some players go. Now, are you motivated for the rest of the season?

Chester City was in this position on the 29th March, bottom of the entire football league and without a win since, well, forever. However, that night they won away to Boston (odds 4.30) and three days later scored a last minute winner at home to Maccelesfield (2.30). So Saturday evening they are 4 points off the bottom, with 4 teams below them, the players have a spring in their step and maybe a future as a professional footballer.

Look for teams/players that have an extra incentive to win, especially against opponents that are not quite so motivated.