Croatia meet Australia in Stuttgart tonight, in what is virtually a sudden death playoff for a place in the last 16, a draw will be enough for the Aussies.
Not many shrinking violets on either team and it could get nasty, referee Graham Poll is likely to be the busiest man on the field. Croatia collected more yellow cards in qualification than any other country and with so much at stake and the make up of the teams (Australia have 7 players of Croatian heritage and Croatia, 3 that grew up in Australia) I would not put anyone off "buying"bookings or yellow/red cards. Six seems the minimum number of cards shown now, this COULD go double figures. Surprised if this ends up eleven v eleven.
I think Croatia are very unlucky to just have one point so far, they could easily have four, now they just HAVE to win, or go home. The Australian defence, with the exception of Lucas Neill ,is average at best, they are sure to give up a few chances and it is time for the Croatian strikers to do the business. They are my strong choice.
Have a feeling, call me mad and I am surprised at myself for saying this, that Ronaldo will score tonight, crazy isn't it ? Thought he looked a little fitter against Australia and heard he has impressed in training over recent days for the first time since joining the squad. Coach Parreira has suggested he will start with him tonight,despite the yellow card, if so, I will try a small wager, remember, class is permanent. Think the team will look to get him on the score sheet tonight and the odds are fair, Brazil can relax a little and we may see their true colours.
5 points Croatia level ball 1.78 asian line
2.5 points Ronaldo to score anytime 2.55 expekt, sure to be bigger on betfair later
Good Luck.
Thursday, June 22, 2006
Italy desperate to win the group......
......... of course they have to ensure qualification first, but if they finish second in the group, they will be faced with Brazil and Spain up next. First place may see them with Australia and Switzerland, a very big difference, which will not be lost on the calculating Italians.
Czech Republic created nothing against Ghana and could have lost by more than the 2-0 scoreline, they are without Koller, Lokvenc and Ujfalusi. Baros is likely to play at least some part, but is definitely not 100% fit, do not think he would be risked, if there were other options.
For me this can only be a draw or Italian win, the Czechs look vunerable at the back and if Ghana take the lead, this game could really open up. Going to take Italy -1/4 ball as my main selection for this afternoons two games.
The Ghana- USA tie promises to be a physical affair, they have so far collected 12 yellow and two red cards between them. The Americans have no choice, they have to go for it and hope to get help from the Azzurri, Ghana do make mistakes at the back and will not be allowed as much room to play today. I feel sure that USA will score and get something from this game, they look worthwhile taking on the asian line +1/2, Ghana will settle for the draw if Italy take the lead, which also helps.
4 points Italy -1/4 1.72 asian line
3 points USA +1/2 1.80 asian line
Good Luck.
Czech Republic created nothing against Ghana and could have lost by more than the 2-0 scoreline, they are without Koller, Lokvenc and Ujfalusi. Baros is likely to play at least some part, but is definitely not 100% fit, do not think he would be risked, if there were other options.
For me this can only be a draw or Italian win, the Czechs look vunerable at the back and if Ghana take the lead, this game could really open up. Going to take Italy -1/4 ball as my main selection for this afternoons two games.
The Ghana- USA tie promises to be a physical affair, they have so far collected 12 yellow and two red cards between them. The Americans have no choice, they have to go for it and hope to get help from the Azzurri, Ghana do make mistakes at the back and will not be allowed as much room to play today. I feel sure that USA will score and get something from this game, they look worthwhile taking on the asian line +1/2, Ghana will settle for the draw if Italy take the lead, which also helps.
4 points Italy -1/4 1.72 asian line
3 points USA +1/2 1.80 asian line
Good Luck.
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Argentina- Netherlands
This will decide the group winners, a draw being enough for the south americans. Both teams are resting key players......
Van Basten has confirmed, after all, that he is to rest no fewer than six of his first-choice line-up, with Giovanni van Bronckhorst, John Heitinga, Arjen Robben, Joris Mathijsen, Mark van Bommel and Khalid Boulahrouz all currently within another booking of earning a one-match suspension. "We don't want to take any risks for the next round," said the coach, mindful of the fact that the disciplinary slate is wiped clean at the Round of 16 stage.
Nevertheless, while Argentina’s Jose Pekerman is said to be planning a similar move with his own cautioned quartet of Javier Saviola, Gabriel Heinze, Luis Gonzalez and Hernan Crespo.
Van Basten insists that there is no question of either side going into this match half-heartedly.
I do not feel that these two football purists will simply go through the motions, surely they will want to entertain. To be honest the Argentine "b" team is hardly weaker at all, probably a little stronger. Messi and Tevez on the bench in earlier matches, what an embarrassment of riches !
See this as a glorified "friendly" and no reason why there should not be goals. The "replacement" superstars will be keen to keep their place and Argentina can get maximum points.
3 points over 2 goals 1.75 asian line
2 points Argentina 2.08 general
Good Luck.
Van Basten has confirmed, after all, that he is to rest no fewer than six of his first-choice line-up, with Giovanni van Bronckhorst, John Heitinga, Arjen Robben, Joris Mathijsen, Mark van Bommel and Khalid Boulahrouz all currently within another booking of earning a one-match suspension. "We don't want to take any risks for the next round," said the coach, mindful of the fact that the disciplinary slate is wiped clean at the Round of 16 stage.
Nevertheless, while Argentina’s Jose Pekerman is said to be planning a similar move with his own cautioned quartet of Javier Saviola, Gabriel Heinze, Luis Gonzalez and Hernan Crespo.
Van Basten insists that there is no question of either side going into this match half-heartedly.
I do not feel that these two football purists will simply go through the motions, surely they will want to entertain. To be honest the Argentine "b" team is hardly weaker at all, probably a little stronger. Messi and Tevez on the bench in earlier matches, what an embarrassment of riches !
See this as a glorified "friendly" and no reason why there should not be goals. The "replacement" superstars will be keen to keep their place and Argentina can get maximum points.
3 points over 2 goals 1.75 asian line
2 points Argentina 2.08 general
Good Luck.
Portugal-Mexico
This game worries me, a draw suits both, Portugal will then be group winners and Mexico will qualify. However, Portugal will not want to lose, as it may mean they will meet Argentina instead of Netherlands.
When I see the team news, the europeans are resting Deco, Ronaldo, Costinha, Valente and Pauleta, it really makes me wonder if they have "shaken hands" on this result. Regardless, I could not bet this Portugese side, that do not need the win. This leaves the draw or Mexico, take your choice, I am going to take the +1/4 in asia, but for small stakes.
2 points Mexico +1/4 asian line 1.78
Good Luck.
When I see the team news, the europeans are resting Deco, Ronaldo, Costinha, Valente and Pauleta, it really makes me wonder if they have "shaken hands" on this result. Regardless, I could not bet this Portugese side, that do not need the win. This leaves the draw or Mexico, take your choice, I am going to take the +1/4 in asia, but for small stakes.
2 points Mexico +1/4 asian line 1.78
Good Luck.
Angola-Iran
Hopefully we can keep the good run going, 5/6 winners (one void).
Angola still have a small chance to qualify, but must come out of their shell and go for the win, it looks likely that they will start with Benfica striker, Mantorras and switch to 4-4-2. This should leave more room at the back than in the opening ties, riding their luck at times, goalkeeper Joao Ricardo has been outstanding. Team Coach, Goncalves, said "we will play to win and perhaps we will take a few more risks"
Iran have nothing to play for, but to my eyes have looked the better of these two and certainly have more options up front. They are certainly making the right noises ahead of the game......
Iran coach Branko Ivankovic said on Tuesday his side was determined to win their last match, having lost to Mexico and Portugal"."A win against Angola would mean our World Cup had been a success," the Croat told reporters. "This is the biggest and most beautiful event in sports history and we should be proud to have been a part of it."
Ferydoon ZANDI (IRN) Obviously it's a matter of honour and pride for us now. We'll give it our best shot in our last game and bid the tournament a worthy farewell. We'd like to finish third in the group, but we're well aware Angola will provide tough opposition.
I make Iran favourites to win, at odds against on the level ball asian line we have to get involved, the goal line of "2" also looks attractive, it could really open up in the second half.
3 points Iran level ball 2.13 asian handicap
3 points over 2 goals 1.77 asian line
Good Luck.
Angola still have a small chance to qualify, but must come out of their shell and go for the win, it looks likely that they will start with Benfica striker, Mantorras and switch to 4-4-2. This should leave more room at the back than in the opening ties, riding their luck at times, goalkeeper Joao Ricardo has been outstanding. Team Coach, Goncalves, said "we will play to win and perhaps we will take a few more risks"
Iran have nothing to play for, but to my eyes have looked the better of these two and certainly have more options up front. They are certainly making the right noises ahead of the game......
Iran coach Branko Ivankovic said on Tuesday his side was determined to win their last match, having lost to Mexico and Portugal"."A win against Angola would mean our World Cup had been a success," the Croat told reporters. "This is the biggest and most beautiful event in sports history and we should be proud to have been a part of it."
Ferydoon ZANDI (IRN) Obviously it's a matter of honour and pride for us now. We'll give it our best shot in our last game and bid the tournament a worthy farewell. We'd like to finish third in the group, but we're well aware Angola will provide tough opposition.
I make Iran favourites to win, at odds against on the level ball asian line we have to get involved, the goal line of "2" also looks attractive, it could really open up in the second half.
3 points Iran level ball 2.13 asian handicap
3 points over 2 goals 1.77 asian line
Good Luck.
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
We never beat Sweden .......
...... but maybe tonight, is the night. I know Sweden need the point to qualify, but they are in anyway if Paraguay do not lose to T&T and i do not think they will. It is one thing to set out a gameplan for 0-0, another when you have to go and win the match.
England will not want to play Germany, so I think defeat is not an option, they will get slated by the media if that happens. Just have a feeling that Paraguay will be ahead and England will perform tonight. Of course I am worried about the draw, so the asian level ball line, albeit at short odds looks the best option. Sweden not to score at around 2.36 on Betfair is also ok.
5 points England dnb asian line 1.63
Good Luck.
England will not want to play Germany, so I think defeat is not an option, they will get slated by the media if that happens. Just have a feeling that Paraguay will be ahead and England will perform tonight. Of course I am worried about the draw, so the asian level ball line, albeit at short odds looks the best option. Sweden not to score at around 2.36 on Betfair is also ok.
5 points England dnb asian line 1.63
Good Luck.
Germany to keep the fans happy .......and avoid England
Germany and Ecuador meet to decide the group winner, think the host nation want it more, but the odds are very skinny.
They do not want to play England, memories of the 5-1 drubbing are still too raw and will want to keep the momentum they have built up, going. The fact that Ballack will start, despite his yellow card, shows how keen they are to win.
Ecuador have several key players on one card and are likely to rest some, if not all, they can ill afford to be without them come the knockout stage.
Think the best way to back Germany is to take them to win the first half, the odds are ok and if they get a lead, they will be able to ease down and rest Ballack.
3 points Germany to win first half 2.04 asian line.
Good Luck.
They do not want to play England, memories of the 5-1 drubbing are still too raw and will want to keep the momentum they have built up, going. The fact that Ballack will start, despite his yellow card, shows how keen they are to win.
Ecuador have several key players on one card and are likely to rest some, if not all, they can ill afford to be without them come the knockout stage.
Think the best way to back Germany is to take them to win the first half, the odds are ok and if they get a lead, they will be able to ease down and rest Ballack.
3 points Germany to win first half 2.04 asian line.
Good Luck.
Monday, June 19, 2006
Friendly International .........Costa Rica-Poland
The first friendly of the World Cup, as both teams are going home after this match. Poland showed more fight against Germany and will want to give their vast army of fans, something to cheer. Costa Rica looked clueless at times in the defeat to Ecuador, Wanchope and Gomez really struggled up front, they have already conceded 7 and look likely to add to this tally.
In 2002 World Cup , Poland were in exactly the same position and in the final game beat USA
3-1, motivated from the start, they scored 2 goals in the opening 5 minutes.
They are likely to change the team around, Sobolewski is suspended and the "youngsters" will be given a chance to impress. Reading interviews with the central american players, their heads are already in CR, bodies to follow shortly.
Poland to win, maybe by a couple.
3 points Poland 1.82 betfair.
Good Luck.
In 2002 World Cup , Poland were in exactly the same position and in the final game beat USA
3-1, motivated from the start, they scored 2 goals in the opening 5 minutes.
They are likely to change the team around, Sobolewski is suspended and the "youngsters" will be given a chance to impress. Reading interviews with the central american players, their heads are already in CR, bodies to follow shortly.
Poland to win, maybe by a couple.
3 points Poland 1.82 betfair.
Good Luck.
Tunisia to keep it tight ...........
My outright selection, Spain, take on Tunisia in Stuttgart tonight. The north africans are still without dos Santos and will try to frustrate their opponents, they very rarely concede multiple goals. The tie with Saudi Arabia was only the 3rd time they have allowed 2 goals in 21 starts.
Tunisia were well on top in the first half in that game, it maybe that they were over confident after the break and got caught out. The second place in this group could well come down to goal difference, therefore, a one goal loss would not be a disaster.
Spain looked good in the opener, but did get all the luck that was going, these things tend to even out, so they may have to settle for a narrow victory.My idea is a one goal win for Spain, but have finally opted for the Carthage Eagles on the handicap.
3 points Tunisia +1.5 goals 1.81 asian line.
Good Luck.
Tunisia were well on top in the first half in that game, it maybe that they were over confident after the break and got caught out. The second place in this group could well come down to goal difference, therefore, a one goal loss would not be a disaster.
Spain looked good in the opener, but did get all the luck that was going, these things tend to even out, so they may have to settle for a narrow victory.My idea is a one goal win for Spain, but have finally opted for the Carthage Eagles on the handicap.
3 points Tunisia +1.5 goals 1.81 asian line.
Good Luck.
The Togo circus rolls on .......
Togo missed their flight to Dortmund yesterday, yet another protest by the players, relating to bonus payments. FIFA stepped in and guaranteed the newly agreed sums and the squad caught a later flight.
The coach is planning to sue a Togo official, who has claimed he is an alcoholic, read elsewhere that he is teetotal ! What a mockery. Today they are without their influential captain, Jean-Paul Abalo ( the defence went to pieces after he was sent off against South Korea) and fellow defender, Assemoassa.
Switzerland are a much better side and should win today, a victory by two clear goals will mean they can qualify with a draw in the final group game. They will be keen to prove that they know more than how to defend and I take them to cover the asian handicap.
4 points Switzerland -1.25 goals 2.12 asian line.
Good Luck.
The coach is planning to sue a Togo official, who has claimed he is an alcoholic, read elsewhere that he is teetotal ! What a mockery. Today they are without their influential captain, Jean-Paul Abalo ( the defence went to pieces after he was sent off against South Korea) and fellow defender, Assemoassa.
Switzerland are a much better side and should win today, a victory by two clear goals will mean they can qualify with a draw in the final group game. They will be keen to prove that they know more than how to defend and I take them to cover the asian handicap.
4 points Switzerland -1.25 goals 2.12 asian line.
Good Luck.
Sunday, June 18, 2006
Final round at Winged Foot .....
Round 4 of the US Open today, on what must be the hardest course most pros have EVER played. The leaders stand at +2, yes, that is over par, if we have normal Sunday tee positions, scoring could go through the roof.
Mickleson is in pole position and is on my short list, alongside Furyk, Singh and Ogilvy. Looking for a little value, I am going to take the Aussie each way, "without" big Phil.
Furyk did not drive the ball too well yesterday and VJ misses too many makeable putts.
Ogilvy is having a fantastic year, currently lies 5th on the money list and already has a win and 2nd place to his name. The victory coming in a very big tournament, the WGC Matchplay, proving that he can handle the pressure, with the eyes of the golfing world upon him .
A steady player, long off the tee, he is one of the very few to have kept a double bogey off his card this week. Think he has the right temperament to deal with whatever the course throws up tonight and is a player ready to move up to the next level.
I expect Ogilvy to go close to winning, but feel that the w/o market is the better option.
2.5 points each way 1/4 123 OGILVY 4.50 w/o MICKLESON Stan James
Good Luck.
Mickleson is in pole position and is on my short list, alongside Furyk, Singh and Ogilvy. Looking for a little value, I am going to take the Aussie each way, "without" big Phil.
Furyk did not drive the ball too well yesterday and VJ misses too many makeable putts.
Ogilvy is having a fantastic year, currently lies 5th on the money list and already has a win and 2nd place to his name. The victory coming in a very big tournament, the WGC Matchplay, proving that he can handle the pressure, with the eyes of the golfing world upon him .
A steady player, long off the tee, he is one of the very few to have kept a double bogey off his card this week. Think he has the right temperament to deal with whatever the course throws up tonight and is a player ready to move up to the next level.
I expect Ogilvy to go close to winning, but feel that the w/o market is the better option.
2.5 points each way 1/4 123 OGILVY 4.50 w/o MICKLESON Stan James
Good Luck.
Man of the match ..................
Interesting statistics for the "Man of the Match" award, which is voted for by the FIFA Technical Study Group. In the 26 matches so far, over 60% have gone to midfielders and, as you would expect, no player on the losing side has yet won.
Brazil are likely to win today, so looking at the odds on offer, we have, 3-1 Ronaldinho, 9/2 Kaka, 7/1 Adriano and 8/1 Ronaldo. It seems to be between these four, Ronaldo might have to score twice to win, on his earlier performance that seems unlikely, but possible. The nature of these awards, suggest that, where possible, they will be spread around, Kaka won it against Croatia, feel that if he puts in a similar performance to one of the others, he may be overlooked this time.
Would not put anyone of a bet on any of these four, but as he will see plenty of the ball ,think I will side with Ronaldinho for a small interest.
2 points Ronaldinho 4.0 man of the match market bet 365
Brazil are likely to win today, so looking at the odds on offer, we have, 3-1 Ronaldinho, 9/2 Kaka, 7/1 Adriano and 8/1 Ronaldo. It seems to be between these four, Ronaldo might have to score twice to win, on his earlier performance that seems unlikely, but possible. The nature of these awards, suggest that, where possible, they will be spread around, Kaka won it against Croatia, feel that if he puts in a similar performance to one of the others, he may be overlooked this time.
Would not put anyone of a bet on any of these four, but as he will see plenty of the ball ,think I will side with Ronaldinho for a small interest.
2 points Ronaldinho 4.0 man of the match market bet 365
Big day of sport .........
In addition to the World Cup, we have the final round of the US Open golf and the Stella Artois tennis final at Queens. The remote control will be working overtime.
Going to put several very short posts online today, without too much in depth analysis.
In the early kick off in Germany, a draw is of no value to Japan, they have to go in search of the 3 points. I have to side with a very small bet on the "over", would be happier taking it if Japan had a proven goalscorer, in a country with a population of 130m, you would think they could fine one. Croatia are the likelier winners, but the odds are too short for me.
At Queens, I am surprised to see Hewittt at such big odds, he is a three time winner of this tournament and holds a 6-1 h2h advantage. Blake has been impressive, but this semi-final win was gained over a lack lustre Roddick. He freely admits that grass is his worse surface ( that may be reviewed now), in several visits to Wimbledon, he has never gone beyond the second round. Lleyton is a former winner of that Championship and one of the toughest men to beat on the circuit.
2 points Lleyton Hewitt 2.2 betfair
2 points Croatia -Japan over 2.25 goals 2.0 asian line
Good Luck.
Going to put several very short posts online today, without too much in depth analysis.
In the early kick off in Germany, a draw is of no value to Japan, they have to go in search of the 3 points. I have to side with a very small bet on the "over", would be happier taking it if Japan had a proven goalscorer, in a country with a population of 130m, you would think they could fine one. Croatia are the likelier winners, but the odds are too short for me.
At Queens, I am surprised to see Hewittt at such big odds, he is a three time winner of this tournament and holds a 6-1 h2h advantage. Blake has been impressive, but this semi-final win was gained over a lack lustre Roddick. He freely admits that grass is his worse surface ( that may be reviewed now), in several visits to Wimbledon, he has never gone beyond the second round. Lleyton is a former winner of that Championship and one of the toughest men to beat on the circuit.
2 points Lleyton Hewitt 2.2 betfair
2 points Croatia -Japan over 2.25 goals 2.0 asian line
Good Luck.
Saturday, June 17, 2006
Italy to "go for it" .......
Much will depend on how the Czech Republic get on earlier, but Italy will be desperate to win this group and will have to score a couple tonight. Section E winners are likely to avoid Brazil and the impressive Spain.
They created plenty of chances against Ghana, 18 shots at goal and many other near misses, they are full of attacking options and Totti will be there to load the bullets.
USA will be keen to put on a better show, they looked more dangerous once Eddie Johnson, 7 goals in 8 games, came on and he is likely to play a bigger role tonight. They must look for goals, that will not be easy of course, but the Azzurri conceded in 6 of their 10 qualification matches and in 7 of last 8 friendlies. Feel that USA will score and that the match will go "over", with the 2.25 goal line, we have half stakes returned with 2 goals and I like this bet.
4 points over 2.25 goals 2.03 asian line
They created plenty of chances against Ghana, 18 shots at goal and many other near misses, they are full of attacking options and Totti will be there to load the bullets.
USA will be keen to put on a better show, they looked more dangerous once Eddie Johnson, 7 goals in 8 games, came on and he is likely to play a bigger role tonight. They must look for goals, that will not be easy of course, but the Azzurri conceded in 6 of their 10 qualification matches and in 7 of last 8 friendlies. Feel that USA will score and that the match will go "over", with the 2.25 goal line, we have half stakes returned with 2 goals and I like this bet.
4 points over 2.25 goals 2.03 asian line
Midfield will be crowded ............
......... with players and talent, when Czech Republic meet Ghana in Cologne this evening.
Without Baros and Koller, CR will play with Lokvenc as the lone striker and support him with a five man midfield full of quality. The risk is , that this is where ALL Ghana's strength lies, Muntari, Essien and Appiah form a dynamic and physical combination and the two teams may cancel each other out.
The african team created very little against Italy, they were restricted to long range efforts, mostly from the midfielders. I can see this being a very tactical affair and think it will be hard for Ghana to score, Czech Republic may have to be patient and hope the goals come eventually. They do not want to get into a physical battle as they can ill afford any more injuries.
Think we should take the half time draw, the 2.46 on offer seems more than fair.
3 points half time draw 2.46 betfair
Good Luck.
Without Baros and Koller, CR will play with Lokvenc as the lone striker and support him with a five man midfield full of quality. The risk is , that this is where ALL Ghana's strength lies, Muntari, Essien and Appiah form a dynamic and physical combination and the two teams may cancel each other out.
The african team created very little against Italy, they were restricted to long range efforts, mostly from the midfielders. I can see this being a very tactical affair and think it will be hard for Ghana to score, Czech Republic may have to be patient and hope the goals come eventually. They do not want to get into a physical battle as they can ill afford any more injuries.
Think we should take the half time draw, the 2.46 on offer seems more than fair.
3 points half time draw 2.46 betfair
Good Luck.
Early goals in Germany.......
The early kick offs have produced plenty of goals this World Cup, the eight matches so far are averaging 3.5 per game.
The last 5 Iran fixtures have all gone "over" 3.5 goals, so think we can expect goals today, when they meet group favourites, Portugal. The european side were big scorers in qualification (35 goals) and were heavily criticized by the home media for "stepping off the gas" in the opening tie with Angola, they were happier keeping possession ( almost 60%), than looking for another goal.
The Portugese side have great width and the wingers can stretch the Iran defence, also looks like Deco will return today in the playmaker role. He can boss the midfield, an area where Iran were overrun by Mexico in the first game.
The draw will have little benefit for Iran, if they have any hopes of progression, so they will have to open up at some stage. I will take the "over" and look for Pauleta to get on the scoresheet.
Figo won the "man of the match award" in the first game, feel that these will be spread around, so we can look elsewhere today. This is an official award, voted for by the FIFA technical study group, providing Ronaldo starts, he looks overpriced , his style of play is always likely to impress.
4 points over 2.5 goals 1.95 asian line
1 point Pauleta to score at any time 2.10 betfair
1 point Ronaldo MOM award 8.0 bet 365
Good Luck.
The last 5 Iran fixtures have all gone "over" 3.5 goals, so think we can expect goals today, when they meet group favourites, Portugal. The european side were big scorers in qualification (35 goals) and were heavily criticized by the home media for "stepping off the gas" in the opening tie with Angola, they were happier keeping possession ( almost 60%), than looking for another goal.
The Portugese side have great width and the wingers can stretch the Iran defence, also looks like Deco will return today in the playmaker role. He can boss the midfield, an area where Iran were overrun by Mexico in the first game.
The draw will have little benefit for Iran, if they have any hopes of progression, so they will have to open up at some stage. I will take the "over" and look for Pauleta to get on the scoresheet.
Figo won the "man of the match award" in the first game, feel that these will be spread around, so we can look elsewhere today. This is an official award, voted for by the FIFA technical study group, providing Ronaldo starts, he looks overpriced , his style of play is always likely to impress.
4 points over 2.5 goals 1.95 asian line
1 point Pauleta to score at any time 2.10 betfair
1 point Ronaldo MOM award 8.0 bet 365
Good Luck.
Friday, June 16, 2006
Carnage at Winged Foot
First round of the US Open golf yesterday and what a battering the pros took, only ONE (!) player was under par, 22 finished 10 or more over.
Winner will be a golfer who can keep the ball on the fairway and out of the punishing rough, Jim Furyk is in a group just one off the lead. He won the Open in 2003 and this Mr Reliable of the tour, has the taylormade game for this course. I am going to take a little of the 8.80 on offer.
Serbia and Montenegro will have to be more positive against Argentina, than in their opener, the players were critical of the coach's negative approach in that game and will attack more today.This could play into the south americans hands and with Riquelme pulling the strings, we could see some goals today.
Our favourites, Ivory Coast, will be looking to get back on track with a win today, think they are evenly matched with the Dutch and can win with a little luck in front of goal, odds look fair enough.
Mexico will be looking to secure their place in the next stage with victory over a goal shy looking
Angola, they will not want to need a result in the final match verses Portugal.
2 points Jim Furyk-US Open 8.80 betfair
4 points Argentina-Serbia and Montenegro over 2 goals 1.84 asian line
2 points Ivory Coast 4.70 betfair
4 points Mexico -1 1.92 asian line
Good Luck.
Winner will be a golfer who can keep the ball on the fairway and out of the punishing rough, Jim Furyk is in a group just one off the lead. He won the Open in 2003 and this Mr Reliable of the tour, has the taylormade game for this course. I am going to take a little of the 8.80 on offer.
Serbia and Montenegro will have to be more positive against Argentina, than in their opener, the players were critical of the coach's negative approach in that game and will attack more today.This could play into the south americans hands and with Riquelme pulling the strings, we could see some goals today.
Our favourites, Ivory Coast, will be looking to get back on track with a win today, think they are evenly matched with the Dutch and can win with a little luck in front of goal, odds look fair enough.
Mexico will be looking to secure their place in the next stage with victory over a goal shy looking
Angola, they will not want to need a result in the final match verses Portugal.
2 points Jim Furyk-US Open 8.80 betfair
4 points Argentina-Serbia and Montenegro over 2 goals 1.84 asian line
2 points Ivory Coast 4.70 betfair
4 points Mexico -1 1.92 asian line
Good Luck.
Thursday, June 15, 2006
Group B ........matchday 2
Strange day for Peter Crouch , he will have to look up to Dennis Lawrence the Trinidad and Tobago/ Wrexham defender, who is a little taller, if you believe that.
I expect England to win comfortably. Most of the caribbean squad play in the lower reaches of England and Scotland, only Hislop 37 and Yorke 34, have ever played in the Premiership. There are one and a half divisions between the two sets of players, think that will show today.
Sweden seem to have problems, they could not beat 10 man Trinidad and Tobago in the opening fixture and there were tales of trouble in the dressing room afterwards. This is common, but not the first time it has happened to this squad.
Zlatan is not in the best of form, Larsson is used to only 30 minutes nowadays and Freddie Ljungberg is not 100%. Think Paraguay will put on more of a show today and can take at least a point, this should leave everything to play for in the final group games.
3 points England - 1.75 goals 1.83 asian line
3 points Paraguay +1/2 1.91 asian line
Good Luck.
I expect England to win comfortably. Most of the caribbean squad play in the lower reaches of England and Scotland, only Hislop 37 and Yorke 34, have ever played in the Premiership. There are one and a half divisions between the two sets of players, think that will show today.
Sweden seem to have problems, they could not beat 10 man Trinidad and Tobago in the opening fixture and there were tales of trouble in the dressing room afterwards. This is common, but not the first time it has happened to this squad.
Zlatan is not in the best of form, Larsson is used to only 30 minutes nowadays and Freddie Ljungberg is not 100%. Think Paraguay will put on more of a show today and can take at least a point, this should leave everything to play for in the final group games.
3 points England - 1.75 goals 1.83 asian line
3 points Paraguay +1/2 1.91 asian line
Good Luck.
Paulo........ how old are you really ?
Think the bookmakers have over reacted to one fair performance by Ecuador, against an awful Polish side. As poorly as the Poles played, they could have snatched a draw, hitting the woodwork twice.
Coming into the tournament, most of us were convinced that they were useless away from high altitude, now, after one game, they are "odds on" for a match they do not HAVE to win. A draw will still leave them as favourites to progress.
Against Germany, Paulo Wanchope ( is he really only 29?) 45 goals in 7o games, took his chances well, showing a long overdue return to form. The midfield have promised to get forward
quicker and not leave him and fellow striker, Ronald Gomez, so isolated.
I can tell you that Costa Rica are very confident ahead of this fixture ........
“We’re confident and bursting with belief," he said. "The Ecuador game matters most to us, because a win would throw the door to the next round wide open.”
Keeper Jose Porras appeared determined to outdo even Centeno in the optimism stakes, proclaiming a steadfast belief in his side’s ability to upset the well-placed South Americans. “Germany were favourites, but we only lost to two stunning goals," he reflected. "There’s nothing to chose between ourselves and Ecuador. If we can bring all our passion to bear, we could walk off the field with the points.”
Five of the nine h2h meetings have finished all square and so could this one, going to go with CR +1/2. We have two of the three possible results on our side and one, the draw, will suit Ecuador, who look happier defending.
3 points Costa Rica +1/2 1.93 asian line
Good Luck.
Coming into the tournament, most of us were convinced that they were useless away from high altitude, now, after one game, they are "odds on" for a match they do not HAVE to win. A draw will still leave them as favourites to progress.
Against Germany, Paulo Wanchope ( is he really only 29?) 45 goals in 7o games, took his chances well, showing a long overdue return to form. The midfield have promised to get forward
quicker and not leave him and fellow striker, Ronald Gomez, so isolated.
I can tell you that Costa Rica are very confident ahead of this fixture ........
“We’re confident and bursting with belief," he said. "The Ecuador game matters most to us, because a win would throw the door to the next round wide open.”
Keeper Jose Porras appeared determined to outdo even Centeno in the optimism stakes, proclaiming a steadfast belief in his side’s ability to upset the well-placed South Americans. “Germany were favourites, but we only lost to two stunning goals," he reflected. "There’s nothing to chose between ourselves and Ecuador. If we can bring all our passion to bear, we could walk off the field with the points.”
Five of the nine h2h meetings have finished all square and so could this one, going to go with CR +1/2. We have two of the three possible results on our side and one, the draw, will suit Ecuador, who look happier defending.
3 points Costa Rica +1/2 1.93 asian line
Good Luck.
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Raining in Germany ....... goals I hope
Going to be brief today. It will be very hot ( 34 degrees) in Leipzig for the ealy kick off and this must favour my outright selection, Spain.
Unlike the rest of the betting world, I think the goal line is too low, 9 of Ukraine's 12 qualification games had 2+ goals, as did 5 of Spain's last 6 outings, the game could open up, as players tire in the draining conditions.
Too many imponderables in the Saudi-Tunisia tie for me, was leaning towards the african side, before dos Santos was injured. Several very good judges like the Saudi's, so you could take a chance at a big price. I am going to leave it alone, the 8-0 defeat to Germany four years ago worries me.
My main interest is in the late game, despite winning 11 corners and hitting the woodwork twice, Poland were too bad to be true against Ecuador, do not believe they can play so poorly again.
The German defence, or lack of it, is a shambles, their last 6 matches have averaged 5 goals, there HAS to be goals in this game. Going to go big on "over" and a small wager on Poland at a massive quote.
2.5 points over 2 goals Spain-Ukraine 1.92 asian line
4 points over 2.5 goals Germany-Poland 1.86 betfair
1 point over 3.5 goals Germany-Poland 2.98 betfair
1 point Poland 8.40 betfair
Good Luck.
Unlike the rest of the betting world, I think the goal line is too low, 9 of Ukraine's 12 qualification games had 2+ goals, as did 5 of Spain's last 6 outings, the game could open up, as players tire in the draining conditions.
Too many imponderables in the Saudi-Tunisia tie for me, was leaning towards the african side, before dos Santos was injured. Several very good judges like the Saudi's, so you could take a chance at a big price. I am going to leave it alone, the 8-0 defeat to Germany four years ago worries me.
My main interest is in the late game, despite winning 11 corners and hitting the woodwork twice, Poland were too bad to be true against Ecuador, do not believe they can play so poorly again.
The German defence, or lack of it, is a shambles, their last 6 matches have averaged 5 goals, there HAS to be goals in this game. Going to go big on "over" and a small wager on Poland at a massive quote.
2.5 points over 2 goals Spain-Ukraine 1.92 asian line
4 points over 2.5 goals Germany-Poland 1.86 betfair
1 point over 3.5 goals Germany-Poland 2.98 betfair
1 point Poland 8.40 betfair
Good Luck.
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Banker of the World Cup .............
One sure bet tonight............ we will see more crowd footage than for any match so far.
Everyone's second favourite team are on show and that means any number of scantily dressed brazilian females, dancing to a samba beat, whether there is music or not. The television producers love that ! If one station showed the match and another the fans, the viewing figures would be close, when the Samba Stars are in town.
Brazil have more attacking options than any other team in the world, on a "going" day, you cannot stop them. But they do concede and have only 3 clean sheets in 11 starts, both full backs have had tremendous careers, but are ageing and you can get behind them.
Rumours are that Ronaldo is fat (sans change) and has blisters, players have been out "clubbing" and the "b" team beat the first eleven in a full scale training game. I have heard it all before.
Think Brazil will win, but it may take some time, it took 43 minutes for them to breakdown the might of New Zealand in the final warm up fixture. Croatia are very well organised, only conceding five in qualification, where they remained unbeaten, the two defensive midfielders can keep Brazil at bay,for a while . Babic and Srna break very quickly and the pace of the croats can trouble Brazil, particularly if Carlos and Cafu go walkabout too often.
Think Croatia will score, I like the 2-1 scoreline to the champions, will also take a small bet on a ht/ft draw/Brazil split, but my main bet is on the half time draw. Anyway a match to savour and yes, I do mean the football, the beautiful game.
1 point Brazil 2-1 10.5 betfair
1 point draw-brazil 5.2 betfair
3 points ht draw 2.88 betfair .....good price
Good Luck.
Everyone's second favourite team are on show and that means any number of scantily dressed brazilian females, dancing to a samba beat, whether there is music or not. The television producers love that ! If one station showed the match and another the fans, the viewing figures would be close, when the Samba Stars are in town.
Brazil have more attacking options than any other team in the world, on a "going" day, you cannot stop them. But they do concede and have only 3 clean sheets in 11 starts, both full backs have had tremendous careers, but are ageing and you can get behind them.
Rumours are that Ronaldo is fat (sans change) and has blisters, players have been out "clubbing" and the "b" team beat the first eleven in a full scale training game. I have heard it all before.
Think Brazil will win, but it may take some time, it took 43 minutes for them to breakdown the might of New Zealand in the final warm up fixture. Croatia are very well organised, only conceding five in qualification, where they remained unbeaten, the two defensive midfielders can keep Brazil at bay,for a while . Babic and Srna break very quickly and the pace of the croats can trouble Brazil, particularly if Carlos and Cafu go walkabout too often.
Think Croatia will score, I like the 2-1 scoreline to the champions, will also take a small bet on a ht/ft draw/Brazil split, but my main bet is on the half time draw. Anyway a match to savour and yes, I do mean the football, the beautiful game.
1 point Brazil 2-1 10.5 betfair
1 point draw-brazil 5.2 betfair
3 points ht draw 2.88 betfair .....good price
Good Luck.
The Oath Comrades to trouble Les Bleus
The best Swiss team in decades take on France in Stuttgart tonight. They are building towards Euro 2008, which they are co-hosting and have a whole generation of talented youngsters coming to the fore. A fact not lost on Arsene Wenger, who has alredy snapped up two of them and is no doubt looking at several others.
Seven of the squad play in Germany, the most of any visitors to the finals.They were unbeaten in qualification, including two meetings with France, both ending in draws. This is a team inproving with every match and I am confident that they will progress from this section.
France are, as we all know a wonderfully talented team, good to see that Domenech has seen sense and will start with Franck Ribery, who has been outstanding all season. If they all click, then no one will live with them, but this is a big if, despite their abilities, their confidence can be fragile at times. Get the feeling they would not be too unhappy with a draw today, going to side with the Swiss on the "asian" and a little on the half time market.
Not playing on the first game, understand the roof may be on the stadium, which may push the temperatures up even further, it was 38 degrees yesterday for the early kick off, very draining.
Think I have a good bet on the Brazil- Croatia match, at nice odds, will put it online after the SK-Togo contest.
4 points switzerland +3/4 asian line 2.04
1.5 points half time draw France-Switzerland 2.28 betfair....... odds should increase later
Good Luck
Seven of the squad play in Germany, the most of any visitors to the finals.They were unbeaten in qualification, including two meetings with France, both ending in draws. This is a team inproving with every match and I am confident that they will progress from this section.
France are, as we all know a wonderfully talented team, good to see that Domenech has seen sense and will start with Franck Ribery, who has been outstanding all season. If they all click, then no one will live with them, but this is a big if, despite their abilities, their confidence can be fragile at times. Get the feeling they would not be too unhappy with a draw today, going to side with the Swiss on the "asian" and a little on the half time market.
Not playing on the first game, understand the roof may be on the stadium, which may push the temperatures up even further, it was 38 degrees yesterday for the early kick off, very draining.
Think I have a good bet on the Brazil- Croatia match, at nice odds, will put it online after the SK-Togo contest.
4 points switzerland +3/4 asian line 2.04
1.5 points half time draw France-Switzerland 2.28 betfair....... odds should increase later
Good Luck
Monday, June 12, 2006
Czech Republic ...... one tournament too far ?
That may be harsh, but there is little doubt that they have gone backwards since Euro 2004 and I feel they are a team to oppose today.
They struggled in qualification, losing 3 times, no other country lost as many matches and made the finals. Key players have aged together, Nedved, now 33, came out of international retirement and Poborsky, 34, is playing in the Czech second division. Infact, 9 of the squad are over 30. Star names Koller, Nedved, Baros and Rosicky have all struggled with and/or are carrying injuries.
No real superstars in the USA team, Landon Donovan is taking his time fulfilling that role, but they are a settled side, with good team spirit and one or two, especially Beasley, have blistering pace. In the last World Cup they reached the quarter finals and impressed with their fitness, that could be a big asset in Germany, given the conditions. They should be able to exploit the Czech Republic on the counter attack.
USA finished above Mexico in qualification, their only losses coming after passage to Germany was confirmed.
No time to write much about the Italy-Ghana tie, apart from, I think the goal line is too low.
2 points USA 4.60 betfair
lay 2 points Czech Republic 2.04 betfair
2 points over 2 goals Italy-Ghana 1.86
Good Luck.
They struggled in qualification, losing 3 times, no other country lost as many matches and made the finals. Key players have aged together, Nedved, now 33, came out of international retirement and Poborsky, 34, is playing in the Czech second division. Infact, 9 of the squad are over 30. Star names Koller, Nedved, Baros and Rosicky have all struggled with and/or are carrying injuries.
No real superstars in the USA team, Landon Donovan is taking his time fulfilling that role, but they are a settled side, with good team spirit and one or two, especially Beasley, have blistering pace. In the last World Cup they reached the quarter finals and impressed with their fitness, that could be a big asset in Germany, given the conditions. They should be able to exploit the Czech Republic on the counter attack.
USA finished above Mexico in qualification, their only losses coming after passage to Germany was confirmed.
No time to write much about the Italy-Ghana tie, apart from, I think the goal line is too low.
2 points USA 4.60 betfair
lay 2 points Czech Republic 2.04 betfair
2 points over 2 goals Italy-Ghana 1.86
Good Luck.
Only three hours sleep last night ......
....... no, not the beer, or the weather...... the golf. Thank you very much Adam Scott, was so mad after the Barclays Classic, that it took me 5 hours to wind down and get to bed.
Angry with myself that is, pre tournament I kept looking at Vijay Singh, how could he be 25-1,
his form was not terrible, just not up to his normal, very high standard. Last year he was 5-1 for this event, called two "judges" and both said "he could not win" , thank you very much to them too.
Of course, we all miss winners, that is not why I was so miffed (not strong enough a word), no clever clogs here, decides on Sunday that VJ is not value and places a big bet on Scott. The young aussie plays well, has a very short putt to go 2 shots clear on the back 9 and is odds on, across the board. Feeling very smug at this point, not backed a loser (Singh) , had a large winning wager (Scott) and then ...... Adam Scott THREE PUTTS FROM 4 FEET. My granny could have holed any of these putts and she has been dead 25 years ! The rest is history.
Anyway, that is why I am tired today. Three more World Cup matches , going against the tide on all three, seems like EVERONE has the same ideas today and the odds reflect this.
First up is the Australia- Japan tie, these teams will get to know each other very well over the next few years, as Australia is now in Asia, at least for World Cup qualification purposes, in the same way as Kazakstan and Israel are in Europe !
The world and his uncle (very family orientated blog today) seem to expect a low scoring match / draw and "under" is the most popular choice. I agree to a certain extent, but if either have hopes of progression to the next stage, then they should be looking for the win today, with Brazil and Croatia up next. We can take over two goals at 1.90 and I consider that good value, as both have been creating chances in recent outings and are likely to look for a winner. Just have a feeling that this game could really open up and will also take a very small interest on over 3.5 goals.
Will be back later with my views on the later games.
4 points over 2 goals 1.90 asian line
1 point over 3.5 goals 4.90 betfair...... this is like to increase nearer kick off
Good Luck.
Angry with myself that is, pre tournament I kept looking at Vijay Singh, how could he be 25-1,
his form was not terrible, just not up to his normal, very high standard. Last year he was 5-1 for this event, called two "judges" and both said "he could not win" , thank you very much to them too.
Of course, we all miss winners, that is not why I was so miffed (not strong enough a word), no clever clogs here, decides on Sunday that VJ is not value and places a big bet on Scott. The young aussie plays well, has a very short putt to go 2 shots clear on the back 9 and is odds on, across the board. Feeling very smug at this point, not backed a loser (Singh) , had a large winning wager (Scott) and then ...... Adam Scott THREE PUTTS FROM 4 FEET. My granny could have holed any of these putts and she has been dead 25 years ! The rest is history.
Anyway, that is why I am tired today. Three more World Cup matches , going against the tide on all three, seems like EVERONE has the same ideas today and the odds reflect this.
First up is the Australia- Japan tie, these teams will get to know each other very well over the next few years, as Australia is now in Asia, at least for World Cup qualification purposes, in the same way as Kazakstan and Israel are in Europe !
The world and his uncle (very family orientated blog today) seem to expect a low scoring match / draw and "under" is the most popular choice. I agree to a certain extent, but if either have hopes of progression to the next stage, then they should be looking for the win today, with Brazil and Croatia up next. We can take over two goals at 1.90 and I consider that good value, as both have been creating chances in recent outings and are likely to look for a winner. Just have a feeling that this game could really open up and will also take a very small interest on over 3.5 goals.
Will be back later with my views on the later games.
4 points over 2 goals 1.90 asian line
1 point over 3.5 goals 4.90 betfair...... this is like to increase nearer kick off
Good Luck.
Saturday, June 10, 2006
Ivory Coast .......welcome to the World Cup
First ever appearance in the World Cup finals and you start against two time winner Argentina, welcome to the jungle !
I have already backed Ivory Coast to qualify from the "group of death" and to win outright, reasons in my archive "World Cup Preview.......part 1......". They are a team I hold in the highest regard and quite frankly the odds on offer today, simply do not make sense. Of course, Argentina should be favourites, but these odds defy belief, win or lose, they are wrong. Even if Argentina win 4-0, these odds are wrong ! Think I have made that clear.
How often can you back a world class team, at a neutral venue, at 7.50 ?
Pleased that the South Americans will not start with either Messi or Tevez, they are wonderful talents and would have been the first names on my team sheet, injuries aside. Come the next World Cup it will be Messi's face on every magazine cover and not Ronaldinho, but maybe it is 4 years too soon for him.
Having said all this, as we are already so involved, I am only going to suggest a nominal bet on the African side, if you have not played them so far, then bet a little more.
Also think we may see some goals, the ball is definitely "moving" in the air, Argentina have gone "over" in 6 of last 7 starts, IC have scored in 13 of their last 14. Over 2.25 has plenty of interest, half stake returned with 2 goals. Thats it, enjoy the matches today.
1 point Ivory Coast 7.50 general
4 points over 2.25 goals 1.96 asian line
Good Luck.
I have already backed Ivory Coast to qualify from the "group of death" and to win outright, reasons in my archive "World Cup Preview.......part 1......". They are a team I hold in the highest regard and quite frankly the odds on offer today, simply do not make sense. Of course, Argentina should be favourites, but these odds defy belief, win or lose, they are wrong. Even if Argentina win 4-0, these odds are wrong ! Think I have made that clear.
How often can you back a world class team, at a neutral venue, at 7.50 ?
Pleased that the South Americans will not start with either Messi or Tevez, they are wonderful talents and would have been the first names on my team sheet, injuries aside. Come the next World Cup it will be Messi's face on every magazine cover and not Ronaldinho, but maybe it is 4 years too soon for him.
Having said all this, as we are already so involved, I am only going to suggest a nominal bet on the African side, if you have not played them so far, then bet a little more.
Also think we may see some goals, the ball is definitely "moving" in the air, Argentina have gone "over" in 6 of last 7 starts, IC have scored in 13 of their last 14. Over 2.25 has plenty of interest, half stake returned with 2 goals. Thats it, enjoy the matches today.
1 point Ivory Coast 7.50 general
4 points over 2.25 goals 1.96 asian line
Good Luck.
Friday, June 09, 2006
Onwards and Upwards .........
...... in the words of the (former) great Martin Allen, only joking, thanks for everything MA, not sure about your timing though.
Firstly, Svetlana Kuznetsova made the final at Roland Garros and our each way bet at 10-1 looks good, with the place portion at 4.33 already landed. Think a little bet on Henin-Hardene to win 2-1 in sets is advisable, if Kuznetsova takes just one set we will add to our profits and she is very capable of this on a good day.
On day 2 in Germany, Sweden should have too much firepower for Trinidad and Tobago, the caribbean side will have one eye on the England game, which will be their "final". Larsson, Zlatan and co will want to score a few, as this section could well be decided by goals scored, if h2h is level. They scored 30 in qualification, the average of 3 per game being the highest in Europe, Sweden like to hammer the "minnows", 6 and 7 against Malta attest to that.Think that they will cover the handicap.
My friend, Swedish, but not normally a Sweden backer, agrees, he has bet 45,000 euros on them to win by 2+ at odds of 1.80. He has also played 15,000 euros on Ivory Coast to win the cup outright, at around 100 times, the easy way to make a million ! As you know I tipped this bet earlier in the week, hope you didn't bet as much.
Promised to discuss the bookings on the England game, not going to put this down as a selection, but anything around the 1.60 mark for Paraguay to collect the first booking is perfectly acceptable. England are very disciplined in this aspect of play, the south americans much less so, this was alluded to in the earlier article.
I will post again later, with my views on the Argentina-Ivory Coast match, which promises to be a cracker, please check back.
1 point Henin-Hardene 2-1 sets 4.60 betfair
4 points Sweden -1.5 goals 1.76 asian line
Good Luck.
Firstly, Svetlana Kuznetsova made the final at Roland Garros and our each way bet at 10-1 looks good, with the place portion at 4.33 already landed. Think a little bet on Henin-Hardene to win 2-1 in sets is advisable, if Kuznetsova takes just one set we will add to our profits and she is very capable of this on a good day.
On day 2 in Germany, Sweden should have too much firepower for Trinidad and Tobago, the caribbean side will have one eye on the England game, which will be their "final". Larsson, Zlatan and co will want to score a few, as this section could well be decided by goals scored, if h2h is level. They scored 30 in qualification, the average of 3 per game being the highest in Europe, Sweden like to hammer the "minnows", 6 and 7 against Malta attest to that.Think that they will cover the handicap.
My friend, Swedish, but not normally a Sweden backer, agrees, he has bet 45,000 euros on them to win by 2+ at odds of 1.80. He has also played 15,000 euros on Ivory Coast to win the cup outright, at around 100 times, the easy way to make a million ! As you know I tipped this bet earlier in the week, hope you didn't bet as much.
Promised to discuss the bookings on the England game, not going to put this down as a selection, but anything around the 1.60 mark for Paraguay to collect the first booking is perfectly acceptable. England are very disciplined in this aspect of play, the south americans much less so, this was alluded to in the earlier article.
I will post again later, with my views on the Argentina-Ivory Coast match, which promises to be a cracker, please check back.
1 point Henin-Hardene 2-1 sets 4.60 betfair
4 points Sweden -1.5 goals 1.76 asian line
Good Luck.
Carnival time .............
Saturday will be party time across England, the weather is fantastic and the "three lions" start their campaign against Paraguay. Everyone has caught World Cup fever, flags and bunting whichever way you look and even my normally sleepy (until closing time) home town, is putting up a big screen for the annual carnival.
I rate Paraguay quite highly, you can find out why in my previous post "Anibal Lecture To Silence Lions?". My first inclination was to take them +3/4 on the asian line, but have decided to look at other markets for my selection..
England do not score too many goals, overall World Cup record is 68 goals in 50 games, at an average 1.36, if we only count group games that figure is reduced to 1.14 per game. In qualification they only managed 17 in 10 games, ten fewer than the second placed team, Poland.
In recent friendly fixtures, this figure has increased but Sven's attitude to these games has already been well documented. They went in level at half time in 5 of their last 6 qualifying matches, therefore, as the games become more important, the tighter and safer their approach.
They will not panic, or over commit in search of an early goal, Paraguay will be delighted to reach half time level and I think this is where the value lies.
Currently 2.28 on Betfair, this is some 9% above my idea of the true odds, so we should bet strongly.
5 points England-Paraguay HT draw 2.28 betfair.
Good Luck.
I rate Paraguay quite highly, you can find out why in my previous post "Anibal Lecture To Silence Lions?". My first inclination was to take them +3/4 on the asian line, but have decided to look at other markets for my selection..
England do not score too many goals, overall World Cup record is 68 goals in 50 games, at an average 1.36, if we only count group games that figure is reduced to 1.14 per game. In qualification they only managed 17 in 10 games, ten fewer than the second placed team, Poland.
In recent friendly fixtures, this figure has increased but Sven's attitude to these games has already been well documented. They went in level at half time in 5 of their last 6 qualifying matches, therefore, as the games become more important, the tighter and safer their approach.
They will not panic, or over commit in search of an early goal, Paraguay will be delighted to reach half time level and I think this is where the value lies.
Currently 2.28 on Betfair, this is some 9% above my idea of the true odds, so we should bet strongly.
5 points England-Paraguay HT draw 2.28 betfair.
Good Luck.
Thursday, June 08, 2006
Finally ........it's show time !
After what seems like thousands of friendlies and millions of column inches on Rooney`s foot, it is finally here, "the greatest show on earth". So, sit back and enjoy, this is going to be fun.
Guess Germany will find a way to win the opener, but find no interest in the odds on offer. Going to wait a couple of hours and bet on match 2.
Ecuador are in a bit of a mess, the football federation are involved in a US visa scandal, which is set to go to trial. Then this week, promised bonuses for all players were cut, just days before the start of the tournament, guess they were relying on the visa money.
They qualified with 28 points, 23 of them earned at home, in Quito, 2800m above sea level. Since the last World Cup only once have they won on their travels and that was in Bolivia, at even higher altitude ! Goals have been very hard to come by, only 3 in 6 games this year and 4 in the last 9.
Ecuador play a cautious game and have a very experienced defence, De La Cruz, Espinosa and Hurtado have some 270 appearances between them.
Two stats stand out for this match, Ecuador have gone in level at half time in 16 of the last 25 matches and Poland don't do draws. They have played 10 qualification ties, followed by 8 friendlies without a stalemate. Included in that run is a 3-0 win over Ecuador last November, in Spain.
I think Poland are a class above Ecuador , they will have massive support in Germany and will be better suited by the conditions. If we take them on the asian line they are a very respectable 2.10 to win, but if we take the half time draw, full time Poland double result, indicated by the stats, it is a very tempting 5.80.
3 points Poland -1/2 2.10 asian line
1.5 points draw ht- poland ft 5.80 betfair
Good Luck.
Guess Germany will find a way to win the opener, but find no interest in the odds on offer. Going to wait a couple of hours and bet on match 2.
Ecuador are in a bit of a mess, the football federation are involved in a US visa scandal, which is set to go to trial. Then this week, promised bonuses for all players were cut, just days before the start of the tournament, guess they were relying on the visa money.
They qualified with 28 points, 23 of them earned at home, in Quito, 2800m above sea level. Since the last World Cup only once have they won on their travels and that was in Bolivia, at even higher altitude ! Goals have been very hard to come by, only 3 in 6 games this year and 4 in the last 9.
Ecuador play a cautious game and have a very experienced defence, De La Cruz, Espinosa and Hurtado have some 270 appearances between them.
Two stats stand out for this match, Ecuador have gone in level at half time in 16 of the last 25 matches and Poland don't do draws. They have played 10 qualification ties, followed by 8 friendlies without a stalemate. Included in that run is a 3-0 win over Ecuador last November, in Spain.
I think Poland are a class above Ecuador , they will have massive support in Germany and will be better suited by the conditions. If we take them on the asian line they are a very respectable 2.10 to win, but if we take the half time draw, full time Poland double result, indicated by the stats, it is a very tempting 5.80.
3 points Poland -1/2 2.10 asian line
1.5 points draw ht- poland ft 5.80 betfair
Good Luck.
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Croatia meet Spain ........
..... in Switzerland tonight, both will field strong line ups, Croatia will probably begin with the 11 that will play against Brazil next week.
At this late stage, neither will want to lose, or to pick up any injuries. I see this as a glorified training session, everyone is happy with a draw and that is my selection.
2 points Croatia-Spain draw 3.20 centrebet/ bet and win.
Good Luck.
At this late stage, neither will want to lose, or to pick up any injuries. I see this as a glorified training session, everyone is happy with a draw and that is my selection.
2 points Croatia-Spain draw 3.20 centrebet/ bet and win.
Good Luck.
My idea of the winner ......
.... like everyone else, I have been giving this earnest consideration, for some considerable time.
I like my stats and have decided the winner will be european, not too old (see below,taken from FIFA site), with a strong squad and good draw. My short list is Germany (poor squad), Netherlands (tough group), England ( odds too short) and Spain (my choice).
I know they have a terrible record and always seem to disappoint but they are strong in every position, have a very nice draw and they are unbeaten since forever, well, since Euro 2004 anyway. It will help that 5 of the squad now play in the Premiership and they have developed a little steel, which was previously missing, now when they go a goal behind, they roll up their sleeves and fight.
Up front Torres, Villa and Raul look to have goals in them, defensively they are very sound, only conceding three goals in qualification and have, in Iker Casillas, argubly the best goalkeeper in the world. In midfield the only problem is who to leave out, they have an embarrassment of riches, Alonso, Fabregas, Garcia, Xavi, Reyes, Joaquin, Iniesta, Albelda ... the "b" midfield could start for most countries.
Given so many options, they will be less affected by injury/ suspension than most and this could prove vital as the tournament progresses. At the odds on offer, they are my outright selection.
5 points Spain outright 18.0 betfair
Those who believe in the power of statistics combined with the value of youth can strike from their list of potential 2006 FIFA World Cup Germany™ winners the following teams: Brazil, France, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden, Portugal, Serbia and Montenegro, USA, Australia, Croatia, and Trinidad and Tobago.
The reason? In none of the last ten FIFA World Cup competitions have the winners possessed a squad with an average age of more than 28 – the 'weakness' of all those teams listed above.
I like my stats and have decided the winner will be european, not too old (see below,taken from FIFA site), with a strong squad and good draw. My short list is Germany (poor squad), Netherlands (tough group), England ( odds too short) and Spain (my choice).
I know they have a terrible record and always seem to disappoint but they are strong in every position, have a very nice draw and they are unbeaten since forever, well, since Euro 2004 anyway. It will help that 5 of the squad now play in the Premiership and they have developed a little steel, which was previously missing, now when they go a goal behind, they roll up their sleeves and fight.
Up front Torres, Villa and Raul look to have goals in them, defensively they are very sound, only conceding three goals in qualification and have, in Iker Casillas, argubly the best goalkeeper in the world. In midfield the only problem is who to leave out, they have an embarrassment of riches, Alonso, Fabregas, Garcia, Xavi, Reyes, Joaquin, Iniesta, Albelda ... the "b" midfield could start for most countries.
Given so many options, they will be less affected by injury/ suspension than most and this could prove vital as the tournament progresses. At the odds on offer, they are my outright selection.
5 points Spain outright 18.0 betfair
Those who believe in the power of statistics combined with the value of youth can strike from their list of potential 2006 FIFA World Cup Germany™ winners the following teams: Brazil, France, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden, Portugal, Serbia and Montenegro, USA, Australia, Croatia, and Trinidad and Tobago.
The reason? In none of the last ten FIFA World Cup competitions have the winners possessed a squad with an average age of more than 28 – the 'weakness' of all those teams listed above.
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Anibal Lecture To Silence Lions ?..........
Couldn't resist the headline.
Anibal Ruiz, outspoken coach of Paraguay is not worried about group favourites England, he considers Sweden a much bigger threat. Confidence is not a problem for this guy, he has been talking up his team to anyone who will listen, for months. Maybe it is time to pay attention.
I am loath to dismiss anyone out of hand, but Trinidad and Tobago look very weak, this collection of lower league players and others way beyond their sell by date, do not seem good enough. Of course, this will come back to haunt me, but there you go, we have a group of three.
Looking at the prices to qualify from Group C, England are 1.14, Sweden 1.42 and Paraguay 2.62, should the south americans really be this big ?
They have qualified from the group stage of the last two World Cups, losing to the winners, France, in 1998 after extra time, and to eventual runners up ,Germany, in 2002. They followed this by reaching the Olympic final in 2004, losing to a good Argentine side.
Paraguay have continued to improve, qualifying with a little ease from the Conmebol section, where they took 4 points and kept two clean sheets against Argentina.
They have a good blend of youth and experience, some have suggested that this is an ageing team, but 7 are under 25 and only 4 over 30. Star players Roque Santa Cruz (Bayern) and Nelson Valdez (Dortmund), along with the very promising Julio Dos Santos, all play in the Bundesliga, which will help and all are in their early 20's . In Jose Montiel they have their own Theo Walcott, only 18, he has already played six times and looks set to play in Serie A next season, probably with Udinese.
Paraguay are a physical team, it could be worth looking at a buy in their bookings market, they collected two red and eleven yellow cards in 4 starts in 2002. They will play for a draw in the opening fixture with England and may switch from their normal 4-4-2 to 4-5-1, in an attempt to stifle the midfield.
I will take a small bet on them to qualify, come saturday I will look at the "bookings" and have a strong match selection at value odds.
2 points Paraguay to qualify from Group B 2.62 betfair
Good Luck.
Anibal Ruiz, outspoken coach of Paraguay is not worried about group favourites England, he considers Sweden a much bigger threat. Confidence is not a problem for this guy, he has been talking up his team to anyone who will listen, for months. Maybe it is time to pay attention.
I am loath to dismiss anyone out of hand, but Trinidad and Tobago look very weak, this collection of lower league players and others way beyond their sell by date, do not seem good enough. Of course, this will come back to haunt me, but there you go, we have a group of three.
Looking at the prices to qualify from Group C, England are 1.14, Sweden 1.42 and Paraguay 2.62, should the south americans really be this big ?
They have qualified from the group stage of the last two World Cups, losing to the winners, France, in 1998 after extra time, and to eventual runners up ,Germany, in 2002. They followed this by reaching the Olympic final in 2004, losing to a good Argentine side.
Paraguay have continued to improve, qualifying with a little ease from the Conmebol section, where they took 4 points and kept two clean sheets against Argentina.
They have a good blend of youth and experience, some have suggested that this is an ageing team, but 7 are under 25 and only 4 over 30. Star players Roque Santa Cruz (Bayern) and Nelson Valdez (Dortmund), along with the very promising Julio Dos Santos, all play in the Bundesliga, which will help and all are in their early 20's . In Jose Montiel they have their own Theo Walcott, only 18, he has already played six times and looks set to play in Serie A next season, probably with Udinese.
Paraguay are a physical team, it could be worth looking at a buy in their bookings market, they collected two red and eleven yellow cards in 4 starts in 2002. They will play for a draw in the opening fixture with England and may switch from their normal 4-4-2 to 4-5-1, in an attempt to stifle the midfield.
I will take a small bet on them to qualify, come saturday I will look at the "bookings" and have a strong match selection at value odds.
2 points Paraguay to qualify from Group B 2.62 betfair
Good Luck.
Golden Boot ......
Looking at previous tournaments you need a minimum six goals and to be an out and out striker.
My choice at the 33-1 on offer is Pauleta, his goals to games ratio, for players who have 50+ appearances for their country, is only bettered by Ronaldo.
Portugal are in a group that looks likely to produce goals, they were big scorers in qualification, netting 35 times, including 7 against Russia. Pauleta scored in 8 of these 12 matches, to add to his tally of 46 goals in 82 appearances.
Unless injured, he will start every game as the lone frontman, a system also employed by his club side Paris St-Germain. He finished the season as leading scorer in Ligue 1 with 21 goals, 7 clear of the runner up. This earned him a new, lucrative contract, which ensures he comes here with no distractions.
Portugal's all time leading scorer, recently passing legend Eusebio, Pauleta disappointed in Euro 2004, maybe due to public expectation. However, Scolari kept faith in him and it has been repaid, now, without the hopes of a home nation on his shoulders, he should produce the goods.
Opponents, Iran have been involved in high scoring matches recently, their last four games producing 20 goals. Angola, have conceded goals to Lesotho (fifa ranked 141) and Mauritius (146) and have had a disappointing Cup of Nations, since causing a major shock in qualification, they look the weak link. Even Mexico who are normally watertight have been involved in goals on their travels.
If Portugal build a little confidence, they could go a long way in Germany, they can have few complaints about the group.
3 points Pauleta top Portugal scorer 2.875 general
2 points Golden Boot 34.0 general ...........
NB 40.0 is available on Maltco, for those that have access to this quote, you can lay it off at 6 points less on Betfair, for an instant profit.
Good Luck.
My choice at the 33-1 on offer is Pauleta, his goals to games ratio, for players who have 50+ appearances for their country, is only bettered by Ronaldo.
Portugal are in a group that looks likely to produce goals, they were big scorers in qualification, netting 35 times, including 7 against Russia. Pauleta scored in 8 of these 12 matches, to add to his tally of 46 goals in 82 appearances.
Unless injured, he will start every game as the lone frontman, a system also employed by his club side Paris St-Germain. He finished the season as leading scorer in Ligue 1 with 21 goals, 7 clear of the runner up. This earned him a new, lucrative contract, which ensures he comes here with no distractions.
Portugal's all time leading scorer, recently passing legend Eusebio, Pauleta disappointed in Euro 2004, maybe due to public expectation. However, Scolari kept faith in him and it has been repaid, now, without the hopes of a home nation on his shoulders, he should produce the goods.
Opponents, Iran have been involved in high scoring matches recently, their last four games producing 20 goals. Angola, have conceded goals to Lesotho (fifa ranked 141) and Mauritius (146) and have had a disappointing Cup of Nations, since causing a major shock in qualification, they look the weak link. Even Mexico who are normally watertight have been involved in goals on their travels.
If Portugal build a little confidence, they could go a long way in Germany, they can have few complaints about the group.
3 points Pauleta top Portugal scorer 2.875 general
2 points Golden Boot 34.0 general ...........
NB 40.0 is available on Maltco, for those that have access to this quote, you can lay it off at 6 points less on Betfair, for an instant profit.
Good Luck.
Paris in the spring and our thoughts turn to .......
.......... tennis of course.
French Open has reached the quarter final stage today and I have a view on two matches. Svetlana Kuznetsova is my choice to defeat, in form Dinara Safina, to my mind she should be a strong favourite, yet the bookmakers are finding it hard to seperate them. Kuznetsova is a year younger but has far more experience and importantly, already has a grand slam title under her belt. This is the furthest Safina has ever gone in a grand slam, she was 5-1 down in the final set against Sharapova in the last round and managed to turn it around. That says a lot about her fighting spirit but she was being outplayed to be in that position in the first place. Feel that all the pressure is on her today.
The winner will meet either Venus Williams or Vaidisova in the semis, so this is a golden oppotunity to reach the final. Therefore, will also try a little outright each way bet too, the place odds mean we have 4.33 to reach the final and I make Svetlana odds on, whoever she meets in the semis, so this is value.
Strongly feel that the Hingis- Clijsters match will go the distance, "over" games can be backed, but I prefer to take both to win 2-1 in sets, which gives us odds against. These two match up well, neither will give up and last three meetings have gone to a third set.
2.5 points Kuznetsova 1.99 betfair
1 point each way Kuznetsova 10-1 1/3 1.2. hills/ blue square
2 points Hingis 2-1 sets 4.6 betfair
2.5 points Clijsters 2-1 sets 4.1 betfair
Good Luck.
French Open has reached the quarter final stage today and I have a view on two matches. Svetlana Kuznetsova is my choice to defeat, in form Dinara Safina, to my mind she should be a strong favourite, yet the bookmakers are finding it hard to seperate them. Kuznetsova is a year younger but has far more experience and importantly, already has a grand slam title under her belt. This is the furthest Safina has ever gone in a grand slam, she was 5-1 down in the final set against Sharapova in the last round and managed to turn it around. That says a lot about her fighting spirit but she was being outplayed to be in that position in the first place. Feel that all the pressure is on her today.
The winner will meet either Venus Williams or Vaidisova in the semis, so this is a golden oppotunity to reach the final. Therefore, will also try a little outright each way bet too, the place odds mean we have 4.33 to reach the final and I make Svetlana odds on, whoever she meets in the semis, so this is value.
Strongly feel that the Hingis- Clijsters match will go the distance, "over" games can be backed, but I prefer to take both to win 2-1 in sets, which gives us odds against. These two match up well, neither will give up and last three meetings have gone to a third set.
2.5 points Kuznetsova 1.99 betfair
1 point each way Kuznetsova 10-1 1/3 1.2. hills/ blue square
2 points Hingis 2-1 sets 4.6 betfair
2.5 points Clijsters 2-1 sets 4.1 betfair
Good Luck.
Monday, June 05, 2006
The quiet before the storm ......
Most of the action takes place in Scandinavia today and I think we can keep the good run going, with a couple of winners.
Norwegian Division 1, is producing plenty of goals, average for the season so far is 3.10, up almost o.25 per game, over the same period last year. Two of the biggest contributors meet today, Moss have averaged 4.20 goals in all home fixtures and all Follo away matches to date, have a mean of 4.00. I am confident that they will produce at least 3 goals today and suggest that even the low odds on offer have value.
In Tippeligaen, Start will be looking to rediscover some of the form that took them so close to the championship last year, leading going into the final day, they missed out by one point. That has haunted them this season and they find theirselves languishing in the relegation zone, albeit only 4 points off 3rd place. They travel to Sandefjord today who were in league 1 last year, like many promoted teams they have started well, but their form doesn't stand up to close scrutiny. They have only met the poorer sides at home and are heavily reliant on the goals of Andreas Tegstrom.
If Start are going to make any sort of a showing this year they must get a result today, we can bet them level ball on the asian handicap and I think this is minimal risk.
4 points Moss-Follo over 2.5 goals 1.55 unibet ....... may find higher on the exchanges later
4 points Start level ball 2.02 asian line
Good Luck.
Norwegian Division 1, is producing plenty of goals, average for the season so far is 3.10, up almost o.25 per game, over the same period last year. Two of the biggest contributors meet today, Moss have averaged 4.20 goals in all home fixtures and all Follo away matches to date, have a mean of 4.00. I am confident that they will produce at least 3 goals today and suggest that even the low odds on offer have value.
In Tippeligaen, Start will be looking to rediscover some of the form that took them so close to the championship last year, leading going into the final day, they missed out by one point. That has haunted them this season and they find theirselves languishing in the relegation zone, albeit only 4 points off 3rd place. They travel to Sandefjord today who were in league 1 last year, like many promoted teams they have started well, but their form doesn't stand up to close scrutiny. They have only met the poorer sides at home and are heavily reliant on the goals of Andreas Tegstrom.
If Start are going to make any sort of a showing this year they must get a result today, we can bet them level ball on the asian handicap and I think this is minimal risk.
4 points Moss-Follo over 2.5 goals 1.55 unibet ....... may find higher on the exchanges later
4 points Start level ball 2.02 asian line
Good Luck.
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Ivory Coast to an easy win........
...... hope that is the the headline later today, following their final World Cup warm up in Paris.
Opponents, Slovenia, have massive problems. For the midweek fixture against Trinidad and Tobago, they were without most of their starting defence, those players are still missing, plus two others. Despite having the worse of the first half, Slovenia did run out 3-1 winners, with Ceh man of the match, he is also injured today. But wait, it gets even worse, 3 others are unavailable as they are playing in norwegian league games tomorrow.
Don't leave, it gets worse, or better (!), only 12 players originally travelled to France, 5 others will have joined them late last night, having played vital league games for Gorica and Domzale in Slovenia yesterday!
Les Elephants should have a full strength team, all of the support of the french crowd (13 of the squad play in the domestic league) and should run out easy winners.
4 points Ivory Coast 1.85 general
1.5 points Ivory Coast-Ivory Coast ht/ft 3.0 stan james
Good Luck.
Opponents, Slovenia, have massive problems. For the midweek fixture against Trinidad and Tobago, they were without most of their starting defence, those players are still missing, plus two others. Despite having the worse of the first half, Slovenia did run out 3-1 winners, with Ceh man of the match, he is also injured today. But wait, it gets even worse, 3 others are unavailable as they are playing in norwegian league games tomorrow.
Don't leave, it gets worse, or better (!), only 12 players originally travelled to France, 5 others will have joined them late last night, having played vital league games for Gorica and Domzale in Slovenia yesterday!
Les Elephants should have a full strength team, all of the support of the french crowd (13 of the squad play in the domestic league) and should run out easy winners.
4 points Ivory Coast 1.85 general
1.5 points Ivory Coast-Ivory Coast ht/ft 3.0 stan james
Good Luck.
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