Scottish Open

I feel Tim Clark could go very close to winning the Barclays Scottish Open golf at Loch lomond, for the second year running.

He is currently in a tie for 7th place, 5 strokes off the lead and hit 15 GIR yesterday in shooting a 67, which could have been even lower. This is a course that suits accurate iron play and that is the South African's forte. Last year, after round 2, he was in a tie for 6th and 3 shots adrift, so not too much difference.

Last week, he had a very nice warm up for this event, a fast finishing 4th in the Western Open, after shooting a fantastic last round , 66, the low score of the day.

If he can sink a few putts over the weekend and he putted VERY well last week, whoever beats him, will win. The fact that fellow South African , Trevor Immelman, won the Western Open will further spur the diminutive Clark.

He is a very nice price and I find it hard to believe that we will not get a great run for our money. Tim should win his 3rd round 2 ball, opponent, Gregory Havret, has a habit of always having one poor round and his only ever win came 5 years ago. However, the odds of 1.61, are a little skinny, so just the outright for me.

2 points ew Tim Clark 15.0 william hill 1/5 odds 1234 scottish open.

Good Luck

This will have to be quick ......

... not too much time before these matches start.

Richard Gasquet meets Gaston Gaudio in Gstaad later today and I favour the Frenchman, who now lives in Switzerland. Richard has missed much of the european clay court season, but is now fit and playing well, having recently won Nottingham.

Last year only the best of the best defeated him on clay. He won in Napoli, lost in the Monte Carlo semis to Nadal in 3 sets, Federer beat him in the Hamburg final and Nadal,again, at Roland Garros, where Richard is a former junior champion.

Gaudio won the their two previous meetings, but Gasquet was just a boy then, now the 8 years age difference is a plus for my selection.

Want to pass on a word about the Russian player Evgeny Korolev, just 18 yo he is about to break into the top 100, watch out for him. He will pick up some "scalps" over the hard court season, which is his best surface. However, he does have clay court form, wins over Moya, Vicente and Seppi this year and he took Gaudio to 5 sets in the French Open.

Going to chance a tiny bet on him today against Tommy Robredo, who is a bit up and down at present, but Evgeny is definitely one to keep on your short list for the future.

3 points Gasquet to beat Gaudio 1.79 pinnacle.
1 point Korolev to beat Robredo 3.65 betfair.

Good Luck.

UEFA Cup matches today ......

Just going to put a couple of very small bets up. I was going to get heavily involved in the first, but have seen some "line" movement against my selection, as they are from Albania and we have seen some "strange" results from their teams, stakes are reduced.

Tirana, have strengthened their team with a top striker and a couple of other quality signings, remember,we are talking about Albanian level here. They will be disappointed to miss out on the Champions League this year, having won through to the second qualification round of that tournament in each of the past 2 years.

They travel to Croatia to meet Varteks who finished third in the league last season, not quite as impressive as it sounds. Only 11 points clear of relegation, Varteks were 18 points behind the 2nd placed club and 29 adrift of the champions ! The general standard in Croatia has definitely deteriorated.

Having lost 5-6 players since last season, including probably 2-3 of the best, two replacement signings were not registered in time to play today. The coach is unhappy with their pre season form, he admits that Varteks are in bad shape and would be happy with any win over Tirana. Under the circumstances, taking the visitors +1.5 goals seems the obvious choice.

I have been informed by a Swedish friend that Atvidaberg are playing in a stadium 50km from their home and are expecting an extremely low crowd, around 3-400. The visitors, Etzella, from Luxembourg are poor, in 8 previous european encounters their record is 0-0-8, goals 4-26. So they are conceding around 3 per game, which is about what I expect today.

The asian line is set at -2.75 goals, think that is on the money, more or less, but the visitors are hardly prolific, so the goal line of 3.75 has plenty of interest. If we take the under, we will lose half the stake with 4 goals, to lose the whole bet there would have to be 5 scored. Atvidaberg are not in the best shape in Superettan, have only scored 11 in 8 home games and are not at their home ground anyway. Going to side with the under.

2 points Tirana +1.5 2.16 asian line
2.5 points Atvidaberg-Etzella under 3.75 goals 1.80 asian line

Good Luck.

Michelle Wie ......

...... tries for the 5th time to make a cut on the PGA tour today, in the John Deere Classic, which gets under way in Illinois .

The 16 yo from Hawaii is already a multi millionaire from advertising contracts, on the day she turned professional Nike and Sony gave her contracts worth, a reported $10m per year. Nice work if you can get it !

Michelle missed the cut here last year by just two strokes, she might just make it this year but I see no value in the odds offered. However, her 3 ball interests me, there will be plenty of locker room "ribbing" for anyone losing to "The Big Wiesey", so expect Jeff Gove and Daisuke Maruyama to be extra motivated.

Gove is very inconsistent and my selection will be the Japanese golfer, a PGA tour rookie he finished third in qualifying school and is in good form. He has two top 20's in his last 5 outings including a 5th place finish in the Fedex. Good in opening rounds, his average for the last 6 tournaments is 69.5, he finished with a 66 in the Western Open last week, his lowest ever score on tour.

This is a course where driving accuracy is very important, Michelle has been a bit wayward off the tee recently, Maruyama is currently ranked 11th on tour in this category. He will be looking for a good finish here to cement his playing privileges for next season.

Pressure on Michelle and her long driving will have less impact against the men, especially on longer courses, I have to oppose her.

3 points Daisuke Maruyama to win his 3 ball (15.44 cet) 2.375 general......... might be bigger on betfair later.

Good Luck.

Not going to ........

........ put this up as a selection, odds are too low for me, but I know that some of you like the short priced picks. The 20 yo Spaniard Nicolas Almagro has come to terms with the tour this year, he is 20-10 on clay and boasts some impressive scalps.

He beat Ferrero, Volandri, and Safin in winning in Valencia, defeated Coria and Ferrero (again) in reaching Barcelona semis, before losing to Nadal in two close sets. Next up he went to Rome and beat Massu, Acasuso and Davydenko , before losing to Federer 7-5 in the third. He has a big forehand and should have too much for today's opponent, Agustin Calleri, who is a good clay courter, but has played very little in europe this year. These are two careers heading in different directions, the Argentine player is almost 30, there should be only one winner today.

Only circa 1.35 available @ Betfair and Pinnacle, but you may want to add it to some multiples, as I said, this will not be classified as a bet. The good run continues, we are 9/11 winners and over 23.5 points profit since Saturday, will have some better priced selections online shortly, please check back.

Good Luck.

Cup full of goals .....

Three Norwegian cup ties tonight, we can expect goals as the competition so far has produced plenty of action.

The first round, which of course involved weaker teams, averaged 5 goals per game. The 13 second round matches have, to date, averaged 4 , 11 of them had 3 + .

The asian goal line for these games is set at "3", which given the nature of the matches, is fair enough. Tippeligaen normally averages 2.80 goals, a little lower this year, Division 1 is always over 3 goals per game on average.

My choice tonight is Stabaek-Sogndal, this fixture has a history of goals, the last six have produced 4+ , with an average of almost 5. Stabaek have gone over in last 4/5 games and will be looking for goals tonight. We get stakes returned with 3 goals.

3 points over 3 goals Stabaek-Sogndal 1.86 asian line

Anything around 1.60 for over 2.5 goals is worth snapping up.

Good Luck.

Gstaad Tennis .......

My first investment today, note that they are "investments" when in form, otherwise they are bets, is for Ramirez-Hidalgo to defeat Feliciano Lopez.

They have never met on the ATP tour, Lopez holds a 3-0 lead in Challenger/Futures meetings, but all were before 2001, so we can disregard them.

Lopez opened with a good win over Volandri, but this was only his third win on clay this year in 10 attempts. You have to go back to 2003 for the last time he had a winning record on the surface. He much prefers hard courts, where his big serve can be seen to it's greatest advantage.

In two previous trips to Gstaad, he has never gone beyond the second round, Feli is likely to be fine tuning his game for the hard court season ahead.

Ramirez-Hidalgo plays almost exclusively on the red stuff and, at the age of 28, is having his best ever year on tour. In 8 years as a pro, he has recorded over 40% of his career wins in the first six months of 2006. He is capable of the odd stinker, losing to Azzaro (ranked287) and Ungur (245) but boasts, wins over Coria (twice, once in Argentina), Gaudio, Safin and Lapentti, all this year.

He reached the quarter finals at Roland Garros and had a good win over Ferrer, en route. On his only previous visit to Gstaad, he made the quarters and will be looking for something similar this time round.

Today, we have the meeting of two men, one who has his objective ahead and the second, who will see this as a major target for the season. I see value in the clay courter, with the greater motivation.

3 points Ramirez-Hidalgo to beat Lopez 1.97 betfair.

Good Luck.

Rain stopped play in Swedish Open.......

Waske leads Bjorkman 6-4 , 3-2 with a break, serving @ 40-40. Not the ideal time to stop !

Update........ after the restart, Bjorkman broke back. The rain returned just after Waske got back on top and play was suspended for the day. It's a hard way to earn a living !

Score ...... Waske leads 6-4. 4-6, 4-2, Bjorkman serving 15-40.

Update #2 Waske wins 6-3 in the third.

He's going home , he's going.......

Bjorkman's going home..... to play in the Swedish Open in Baastad.

Jonas has had a very tough 3-4 weeks on grass and his 34 yo body is sure to be feeling the strain.If he were not Swedish, I am sure that he would by pass this tournament. In 8 previous visits here, he has lost in the first round on six occasions, once in the second and once in the third.

Bjorkman has no love of the red stuff, on clay this year he is 0-3, he had an identical record last year and was 2-5 in 2004. Thats 2-11 last three years and 3-8 overall in Baastad. He is too good a professional not to try, but this smells of a quick exit and go visit grandma.


Today he meets Alexander Waske , the 31 yo German, is, like JB, a doubles specialist and a seasoned pro.

However, he seems a little more at home on clay than the Swede. This year he is 6-10 on the surface, but beat Vicente, twice a finalist on clay recently, at Roland Garros and lost in a 3rd set tie break to the classy Acasuso in the World Team Championship. He beat the Argentine player in Stuttgart last year, when he was 5-6 on clay.

Jonas won their only previous meeting, this was on a hard court and has little bearing on the match today, where I expect Waske to win.

Looking to keep the good run going, we have had 7/9 winners in the last 3 days and over 19 points profit.

4 points Waske to beat Bjorkman 1.80 pinnaccle/ betfair.

Good Luck.

A team to avoid .......

This pains me to write, but I have to pass on some very negative information about Brentford in Division One.

Having followed them, man and boy, for more years than I care to mention, their prospects this year look on the dark side of gloomy. Infact, I would settle for gloomy, but even I, am not that much of an optimist.

BFC have lost in the playoffs the last two seasons and because of enormous financial restraints, they are £8-£10m in debt, were forced to slash/not extend (depends who you believe) the playing budget for this season. High profile manager, Martin Allen, could not accept this and walked out, feel sure that he was expecting a flood of offers, but he has ended up at Milton Keynes Dons, a division lower. I will return to them later in the month. Should add that the budget was, already pretty much shoestring and I, unlike some others, wish MA all the best.

Every player is up for sale if the price is right, wish the last part were true, the price is irrelevant, almost every offer is being accepted by the board.

Automatic promotion was virtually in the bag last season until selling DJ Campbell to Birmingham, this, I accept, was necessary, as the money was needed to pay a tax bill.

However, during the close season, we have sold Jay Tabb, one of the most skilful, hard working players in the division and recently awarded a Republic of Ireland squad call up, for a reported £120k.

Next up Michael Turner, was sold to Hull City for £325k, this is cheap for a classy central defender, who has probably had 3 poor games in as many seasons. Apparently a large chunk of this fee is due to his former club, Charlton.

Sam Sodje, a player of immense potential, will be off any day to Reading, Watford or Swansea, depending on which website you read.

These were the three best players and they have been sold for a pittance, for whatever reason, by this I mean length of contract etc. Also gone are Rankin-Grimsby, Hutchinson-Oxford, Pratley, on loan for almost 2 seasons was allowed to leave and Martin Allen has made enquiries about Frampton and O'Connor.

It has been reported that one director said that, if we could reduce the debt by £1m and finish fifth from bottom, this season will have been a success. Not exactly what you want to hear 4 weeks before the first game.

Not all doom and gloom as we have signed Chris Moore (?) from Dagenham and Redbridge, he may turn out to be a super star and that would delight me, but even his transfer was paid for by a supporter winning a Coca Cola sponsored competition.

Providing no one else leaves, the squad currently consists of 17 players, thats 2 goalkeepers, 5 defenders, 2 midfielders (yes,two) and 8 strikers, of these , 4 are aged 18 and have 3 first team appearances between them. The main striker, Lloyd Owusu, is injured and will miss the start of the season.

Saturday saw the first pre season friendly and Brentford were beaten 3-1 by Staines Town of the Ryman Premier league.

New manager Leroy Rosenior has promised to bring in some players, but given the financial plight of the club, these will have to be budget signings. We currently have a 35 yo former player, stand up Paul Smith, on a two week trial, which says it all really.

Attendances, which have risen steadily over 2-3 years are set to plummet, the fans have had enough.

This is going to be one VERY long season, would love to be wrong, but Brentford are a team to oppose and given their recent record , bookmakers are sure to over estimate the Bees. Already seen that Ladbrokes and VC Bet have them at 12-1 to win the league, which is laughable. Look to the relegation market, Bet 365 have done some homework, they are just 6-1, Bet Fred are 10's, that looks a fair price, you may find bigger.

Corals have odds for the first round of matches (August 5) and offer 3.75 Blackpool to win at Griffin Park, home of Brentford, this will look massive value nearer kick off, especially as I see the visitors as big improvers this year.

Good Luck.

Superettan statistics ......

No disrespect to the players and teams involved, but after 4 weeks of the World Cup, we are left with some poor fare for a week or two, however, a winner is a winner, wherever it may come.

I have been looking at Superettan, the second division of Swedish football and have come up with some interesting stats.

This is traditionally a high scoring league, producing goals at a rate of 2.93 per game over the past 5 seasons.

2006 started slowly with the average just over 2.20 after 9 rounds, but the goals have started to flow over recent weeks. The last 5 rounds have produced an average of 3.08 goals per game and 15 of the last 19 matches have gone "over".

This appears to be the trend over the period researched, once we are into June/July the goals start to flow. The Swedes really enjoy their summer, not sure if this is some knock on effect of the "feel good factor", or the teams just starting to gel. Regardless of the reason, we can look for goals in Superettan, where it is 40 matches since a 0-0 scoreline.

I have found two games today where we can play the "overs", first up is Ljungskile-Landskrona, where the visitors away fixtures produce over 3 goals per game and 5/6 of all games have gone "over". Ljungskile have gone over in 4/6 and are without 3 starting defenders.

Next, free scoring Orebro are averaging a total of 3 goals in all home games and are "over" in the last 5/6. The visit of Jonkopings should produce goals.

I was interested in the Norrkoping-Trelleborg match, where the home team are over in 5/6 and h2h have a history of goals, but the visitors have yet to concede in 7 away games, an admirable record. Opted to pass on this one.

This is a division to monitor closely over the coming weeks, as the total goals market looks one we can exploit.

Later today I will post some detailed news about a team in England that have been pressing for promotion the past two years. Bookmakers have priced them among the favourites for this coming season, they SHOULD be one of the market leaders, but for relegation, not promotion. This is a club in disarray.

3 points Ljunskile-Landskrona over 2.5 goals 1.92 betfair.
3 points Orebro-Jonkopings over 2.5 goals 1.77 betfair.

Good Luck.

Stephen Dodd wins the Smurfit European Open golf .....

......... hope someone took the 11-1 advised, Rafa took a set also, 2 for 2 today so far.

Forza Azzurri !

Italian strength to win through.........

Feel it may be one game too many for France, the oldest team in the tournament, tonight when they meet the Azzurri in Berlin.

Italy seem to be growing in strength round by round and produced a towering performance in the semi-final win over Germany. They are strong in every position, work tirelessly, have conceded only one own goal in six matches and can take any chances that come their way.

Almost to a man, they have played above themselves, for me, Fabio Cannavaro, who earns his 100th cap today, has been the outstanding player at this World Cup. It will be an injustice, should he not win the Golden Ball award for player of the tournament.

This is an exciting Italian team, the entire side is prepared to get forward, superbly coached by Marcello Lippi, they attack with power and variation. Totti and Pirlo can destroy any team with one pass, Grosso and Zambrotta need no urging to get forward at every opportunity.

France peaked with their wins over Spain and Brazil, in the semi-final win over Portugal they looked a little tired. Italy will not give them a moments peace, Gattuso will be snapping at Zizou's heels every time he gets the ball, Henry will not trick the Italian defence as easily as he did the Portugese.

Of course, a moments magic from Henry, Ribery or Zidane, the biggest French star of all time, playing in his last ever game, could turn the game on it's head.

However, I do not think that France will last the pace, Makele 33, Zidane 34 and Thuram 34, all wonderful players, came out of international retirement for this tournament. This Italian team of superstars with the work ethic and hunger of men that haven't eaten for a week, may make them each feel a little older.

Lippi , the master tactician, probably knows the two key French players, Thuram and Zidane better than his counterpart, having coached both for several years at Juventus. He is sure to have spotted some chinks in their play ....... if they have any !

So for me it's the Paul Newman lookalike to win the coaching plaudits, over the Eddie Jordan doppelganger, Raymond Domenech.

4 points Italy -1/4 2.20 asian line.

Good Luck.

What will be going on in ...........

....... Roger Federer's mind this morning. Bidding to win his 4th straight Wimbledon title, on a centre court he has graced with elegance and flawless ability, he has to face his nemesis in Rafael Nadal.

The young Spaniard leads the h2h 6-1, including the last five. In 3 of the last 4 , all this year, Federer has taken the first set and still lost, he has held several match points and still lost. Seems like whatever Fedex does, Rafa finds a way to win.

Federer is the world number one by a mile, this year, his record is 55-4, all the defeats coming against Nadal, what must that do to his state of mind. What if the unthinkable happens and he loses again, this time on the surface he has dominated like a colossus, where will that leave him ? Rafa has nothing to lose, Roger has everything, en route to the final he has looked imperious and has yet to drop a set, but for him, the tournament starts here.

Nadal is like a Jack Russell terrier, he will never give up. I read an article earlier where the journalist put it thus........ "In Nadal, we have seen the stuff of nightmares and horror films. To win a point, never mind a game, set or match,you have to nail him to the floor, shoot him and burn the body." Fantastic.

Pretty sure that two weeks ago, Federer would have been praying for this match, a chance for revenge, put the upstart back in his place. Well, be careful what you wish for, it may come true.

Nadal has slowly come to terms with grass, "he can't serve", but has not been broken since the second round and Agassi, that master returner, could not manage to even get to deuce against this "poor" serve. Andre claimed that his second serve was impossible to read,that it was biting into the court and moving and kicking a lot. He is not afraid to volley and the amount of topspin on his groundstrokes, keeps the ball low and difficult to deal with.

So here we are, quite possibly the greatest grass court player ever, verses the man with 60 straight wins on clay, who never gives up and is learning to love the green stuff. Compelling stuff, a match to savour, the slower courts help the Spaniard and I feel he can take a set, he COULD win, that seemed inconceivable just days ago.

Going to back Rafa to take a set, easiest way is to "lay" Federer to win 3-0 in sets, most bookmakers will offer some sort of handicap.

Lay 4 points Federer to win 3-0 sets 2.16 betfair.

Good Luck.

Smurfit European Open Leaderboard......

........ after round 3

- 9 Lara
- 8 Wall
- 7 Clarke , Dodd, Khan, Spence
- 6 Casey, Dredge, O'Hara

Wintry conditions at the K Club yesterday, saw scores rise and the field bunch. Massive Irish crowds will be cheering Darren Clarke, who will be hoping to put his off the course problems behind him and record his first European victory for several years.

There would be no more popular winner than the likeable Ulsterman, he admits to being "win rusty" but came close at the end of May in the Nissan Irish Open, finishing third. Darren plays this course well with many good finishes and a victory in 2001.

Weather forecast predicts strong winds today, which will suit DC who is a superb player in poor conditions.There will be plenty of twists and turns today and it may not take much more than -8 to win the tournament. Cigar makers everywhere will be cheering on Darren at the K Club.

We can take a very small saver on Stephen Dodd, who has discovered how to win at a late stage of his career. His first two wins, one in Ireland, came in 2005 at the age of 38. Claims that a sports psycologist has helped him conquer nerves and become a winner. Stephen has a big birthday next weekend (40) and can celebrate in style, with a good finish here.

2.5 points Darren Clarke 5.60 betfair, to win Smurfit European Open.
0.5 points Stephen Dodd 12.0 betfair,to win Smurfit European Open.

Good Luck.

3rd and 4th place play off games.........

... always produce goals, the last 7 have had a minimum of 3. Portugal have played very negatively this World Cup but surely they will be more offensively minded for this, their final outing.

A few players out for Germany, including Ballack, however it looks like Klose will now be fit. Feel sure that they will want to finish the tournament on a high note and put on a show for the fans, who have been terrific.

Both teams can relax and play without fear, hopefully Portugal will have a change up front, or at least give Pauleta a partner, did he really score 21 goals in France last season ? Klose and Podolski will be looking to add to their goal tally for Germany, maybe there is still life in the "Golden Boot" market.

The "overs"looks good, hard not to see both sides scoring, so nice to see the goal line set at 2.25, which gives half stake returned with 2 goals. Lets have some entertainment !

4 points over 2.25 goals Germany-Portugal 1.95 asian line.

Good Luck.

NK Osijek travel to Cyprus........

....and despite temperatures likely to be in the mid 30's, they are expected to collect the win they need to progress. Following a 2-2 draw in the first leg of this Intertoto Cup tie with Ethnikos Achnas. The Croatian side dominated that game, leading the corner count 9-0 and shots on goal 21-4.

Several bookmakers have already removed this game, so don't delay too long.

3 points Osijek -1/2 1.76 asian line.

Good Luck.

Have to pass on a good word .......

...... for a horse today, we do not get involved very often, but have had some success. This is from a good source, the selection could well be up to group class and is running in a handicap today.

Currently priced around 5/1, the front runner could start a good deal shorter.

2 points ew Signatory 3.30 Haydock 6.0 general 1/4 odds 1234

Good Luck.

Same old question .......

...... today, Amelie Mauresmo has the game to win Wimbledon, but will her nerve hold? Under pressure it looks more like she is trying to serve cannon balls, almost impossible to get one over the net. Henin-Hardenne is in good form and a worthy favourite, but at 1.48 tops, I don't think so.

Not convinced about the Belgian's serve actually, too many double faults and they are increasing, too few second service points won and they are decreasing.

This will be very good in parts and very scrappy in others, with little in between. Amelie WILL get nervous and will need a little luck at key moments, but it is not everyday that you can back the world number one, serving 80% first serves at up to 120mph on grass, with the best volley in the tournament, at 2/1 plus.

HH leads the h2h 5-4, 2-1 on clay, 3-3 on hard courts, this is their first meeting on grass, sure that Justine will have the better night's sleep, but in a big weekend for French sport, Mauresmo can give Les Bleus a boost by becoming the first French woman to win for 80 years.

The odds dictate the bet really, at 3.05 on Betfair, she is the only possible option.

4 points Mauresmo 3.05 betfair.

Good Luck.

Baghdatis- Nadal

This is tough, think the odds on the Cypriot are too big, but feel the Spanish superstar will find a way to win.

They have met only once before, earlier this year in Indian Wells, after a close first set, Nadal "whitewashed" Marcos in the second. Perhaps we should not read too much into this, as the conditions suited Rafa and the Wimbledon courts are much quicker.

I am swaying Baghdatis mainly because he gives up so many break points, in double figures in the first meeting and here against Hewitt and Alan Mackin (who?). He simply will not be able to give Nadal as many opportunities, without paying for them.

This could be a classic, beyond any weather concerns, neither will be afraid of a long match. Four hours is hardly long enough for Rafa and in reaching his first grand slam final in Australia, Marcos had 3 long, 5 set matches against Stepanek, Ljubicic and Nalbandian, three hard men of the tour.

Think this could go all the way, definitely like the "over" 40.5 games, which I feel is faily priced at 2.00 with vc bet. Betfair quote 39.5 games, but there is very little liquidity at present, it may be worthwhile checking this out later, it is scheduled to follow the Federer-Bjorkman match, so no rush.

4 points over 40.5 games Nadal-Baghdatis 2.00 vc bet

Good Luck.

15 yo Urszula Radwanska .......

....... is in the semi-finals of Junior Wimbledon today, the youngest player left in the girls singles, she looks a wonderful prospect.

Along with her big sister, Agnieszka who reached the 4th round of the main event, we are going to see a lot more of the Polish invasion. Agnie won the Junior event last year, what a double that would be, their parents must be beaming.

Jonas into the lion's den ............

Felt sorry for Mario Ancic in the quarters, what more can a man do ? He played incredibly well and would probably have beaten any other player in the world, yet didn't come close to winning even one set. Super Mario hit 7 aces, 24 winners, made only one double fault and 13 unforced errors, he won 72% of first serves , 53% of second and was drubbed.

Fed-ex was awesome, Ancic had to win every point several times, it was the complete performance.

Today the 3 times champion faces 34 yo , Jonas Bjorkman, the doubles specialist is currently
54-1 to win the match, surely the biggest price anyone has ever been in a grand slam semi-final.

They have met three times previously, RF winning all in straight sets, however, in the 7 sets played, 4 have gone to tie breaks, including 2 in the only meeting at Wimbledon, although that was 5 years ago. Federer has yet to drop a set, he will probably win 3-0 today, but at 1.22 max, we are not going to get fat on that, so we will have to look elsewhere for an interest.

Jonas has nothing to lose, not sure that he will ever play in the singles again, but this year has already exceeded his wildest expectations. He has no reason to feel nervous, beyond the fact that no one wants to be demolished in front of millions of viewers.

My best call is that Federer will progress in three, close sets, would not be totally surprised if we had at least one tie break. I am going to take over 30.5 games on Betfair, this is quoted at 2.70 right now, but should be nearer 3.0 later. There is a little money to "lay" at 1.40 + on under (3.50 over) and I am confident that more funds will come in later.

So, the easiest way to collect on this would be one tie break and Jonas to pick up at least 6 games in the other two sets (6-3,6-3).
Of course he could always take a set ! Then we are home and dry. Anything over 2.70 seems like value to me.

In winning Halle, pre Wimbledon, Roger played 14 sets, 8 of which went to a tie breaker. For the more adventurous 7.0 + for Federer to win the first set 7-6, is a fair price, Ladbrokes offer 7.0, others may be bigger, as always, shop around.

3 points over 30.5 games in the Federer-Bjorkman semi 2.70 + betfair
1/2 point Federer to win first set 7-6 ladbrokes 7.0

Good Luck.

Just a note......

... to say the golf 3 ball was void, DiMarco withdrew, so all stakes refunded.

Western Open Golf .........

...... starts today, really like one 3 ball, Jonathan Byrd to beat DiMarco and Geiberger. The huge hitting, two time tour winner has recently returned from injury and has found form straight away, shooting all 4 rounds under par at the Booz Allen on his comeback.

JB likes the course and has averaged 69 in his opening rounds, beating Geiberger by 8 strokes last year and 5 in 2004. DiMarco is only playing in an attempt to find some form, the normally reliable New Yorker has missed 6/11 cuts and has only broken 70 once, in his last 16 rounds.

This is a long (for a par 71) course and this favours our selection, he is currently ranked 15th for driving distance, Geiberger 97th and DiMarco 166th. In reality this means, on driving holes, Byrd could have a 30m advantage.

3 points Byrd to win his 3 ball start 15.03 cet 2.50 victor chandler/ 2.375 general

Clijsters meets Henin-Hardenne..... once more

These two must see more of each others than their families, this being their 22nd meeting, HH leading 11-10, 2-0 on grass and 4-2 in slams, including the last 4.

Last meeting was in Eastbourne, on grass, two weeks ago HH winning in 3 sets. No point in going into great detail about these two, we know them as well as they know each other. No doubt who has the upper hand at the moment and in the bigger tournaments, BUT and it is a BIG BUT, the odds on offer are VERY short for a Henin-Hardenne victory.

In Eastbourne there was a plunge on Clijsters on Betfair and she started favourite, around 1.92, call me a liar for a point or so either way. Today, she is currently 3.25, that is too big. If I had to bet my life on this match, I would take H-H, but sometimes you just KNOW the odds are wrong and these are, win or lose, Clijsters is over priced. Think she has a 40% chance to win.

3 points Clijsters to beat HH 3.25 betfair.

Good Luck.

4th time lucky ?

Amelie Mauresmo plays in her 4th consecutive Wimbledon semi today, she has yet to reach a final. Lets be honest, the problem is her nerves, she admits to getting very nervous in big matches, did not sleep before last year's sf against Lindsay Davenport, where she again threw away a winning position 7-6 4-3 and serving. Amelie has been labeled a "choker", the new Jana Novotna, but even she won Wimbledon in the end.

The French woman looked to have finally erased these demons with a grand slam victory in Australia earlier this year, but the same problems arose in Roland Garros, where the public expectation is so great. She has a fantastic game for grass, huge serve, good ground strokes and is not afraid to come to the net, the best vollyer by far.

Today she faces the only previous winner left in the tournament, Maria Sharapova, the Russian looked majestic in the quarters, but was poor in the previous round making 41 unforced errors.
Since winning Wimbledon, MS has had her own problems "going the final yard", losing in 4 consecutive grand slam semi-finals.

Both women have been dominant on serve, with 82% and 75% of first serve points won, in favour of Mauresmo. Who also leads the h2h 2-0, both wins coming in straight sets on a hard court. She would be favourite with me (1.80) if there were no concerns about her temperament, but there are, which is why we can back her at 2.65, an extra 17% or so, which seems fair. This may look very generous come this evening. We have had rain in the area this morning, it looks brighter now, hope any interruptions are kept to a mimimum.

4 points Mauresmo 2.65 unibet/ similar odds available on betfair.

Good Luck.

Super Mario looking for a repeat.....

Mario Ancic was the last man to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon, winning in straight sets in 2002. They have met three times since and the Croatian has taken only one set. Despite this I am sure that Federer is still looking for revenge and will want to put the record straight.

In the eleven sets the two have played, the world number one is averaging 3 break points per set, the big serving Ancic exactly 2, so he is getting chances on the Federer serve. The "ace"count is, surprisingly, rather similar.

This year at Wimbledon, Mario is producing 5 aces per set, unlikely he can maintain that level today, but may not need to, if he can keep the unforced errors down, he can put pressure on his opponents serve. Think that Federer has too much class and will win through in the end, but Ancic is very capable of taking a set, 3-1 seems a fair call and a saver on an exciting, deciding set finish.

2 points Federer to win 3-1 sets 4.0 betfair
1/2 point Federer to win 3-2 sets 10.5 betfair

Good luck.

The other quarter finals ........

Heard that Nadal cannot serve on grass, well he faced Andre Agassi, one of the all time great returners and AA did not even get to deuce once, on the young Spaniard's serve, so it can't be too shabby. Think he will have too much for Nieminen today, but can find no value in the odds on offer.

Think the Hewitt- Baghdatis match will be fun to watch, but get no "feeling" for betting, if pushed i would side with the Cypriot at the odds, no bet for me.

Going to back Jonas Bjorkman once more, in three meetings with Stepanek, he has yet to drop a set. Looking through the stats for these matches, I noticed something very interesting, in the last two meetings Stepanek never had one break point ! Now the Swede is not the greatest server in the world, averaging one ace per set here, so Radek obviously has trouble reading his serve.

Stepanek has never previously gone beyond the 3rd round and has needed titanic efforts to get through the last 2 rounds in 5 sets.

JB is still involved in two doubles events and they are his bread and butter, but he is never going to have a better chance to reach a singles grand slam semi. At odds against he must be backed. The ease in the weather and the likelyhood that play will be stop/start today, we have had thunderstorms all morning, should help the laid back Bjorkman.

3 points Bjorkman to beat Stepanek 2.60 unibet/expect ... little bigger for small money on betfair.

Good Luck.

"The big man's back in town" .........

You could not write a better script, days before his retirement, in front of a watching world, Zinadine Zidane has returned to form and reminded us all of his unique and immense talent.

This all looked highly improbable two weeks ago, coming off a poor season, he looked a shadow of his former self in the opening games. However, since returning from suspension, his towering presence has spearheaded a French resurgence.

Win or lose from now on, it has been a pleasure to see him play with a smile upon his face. Helped in no small part by Patrick Vieira, who has simultaneously rediscovered his best, they have seen off Spain and Brazil, teams with previously unblemished records.

The turnaround in form is remarkable, the French having gone from no hopers, to world beaters, seemingly overnight. Maybe they suddenly realised that this was it, for many of them this could be the last big tournament, certainly the last World Cup, better to go out with a bang, than a whimper.

Now they face Portugal, who will have Deco and Costinha back from suspension, which will strengthen the midfield, where the match is likely to be decided. The Portugese struggled to create much against the ten men of England, but have more options with Deco pulling the strings. Suspect another negative approach from Portugal, Big Phil is happy to "win ugly", sure that both teams will start cautiously, in fact I will be surprised if the scores are not level at half time. For the sake of the game, it will be better if the French score first, otherwise it will be 10 men behind the ball and hold on.

Think Les Bleus can do enough to win the game in the second half, most of their players are now playing at the top of their game, I like Franck Ribery to score the winner, he is showing why the French public were clamouring for his inclusion.

If you can find "evens" or better on the half time draw, I suggest you take it, cannot see any other outcome, unless something freaky happens in the first 5 minutes. We will have half the players on the pitch, one yellow card away from missing the final and that will also play on their minds in the opening stages. I am going to hunt around for the best price later, for now I will take France and a ht/ft wager.

3 points France -1/2 2.27 asian line
1 point Draw ht-France ft 5.50 betfair

Good luck.

The fault lies elsewhere .......

Stan James have produced a line, under/ over, aces and double faults on today's quarter finals.

Like the look of over 5 df's in the Henin-Hardene-Bremond match, the Belgian surprisingly, has been averaging 4 per round. The big serving French qualifier, has made fewer, but can be expected to be nervous, at such a big stage and now on a show court. The 26yo is in the form of her life, having never previously gone beyond the second round of a grand slam.

Six or more double faults at odds against appeals.

3 points over 5 double faults Henin-Hardene-Bremond 2.10 stan james.

Good Luck.

The Chinese are coming .....

Ladies quarter finals today and some very interesting matches, we have the first ever Chinese player to make this stage of a grand slam, congratulations Na Li, who has some great results this year, interesting to see how she handles the presssure against Kim Clijsters. Looks likely that the Chinese will be battling the Russians for tennis domination in the years to come. They now have 6 players in the top 100 and have only just started.

My main interest is in the Mauresmo-Myskina match, the world number one leads the h2h
7-1, they met at the same stage last year and Mauresmo won in straight sets. However, I expect a much closer game today, neither has dropped a set yet and the frenchwoman has been serving very well, but Myskina's game has come on a pace in recent weeks.

She took Henin-Hardene all the way in the Eastbourne final, losing in a 3rd set tie break. The victor was impressed saying " Anastasia is back to her best, I saw her practice and she has a great game for grass. She tried everything, played a great match and she could have won it.”

Myskina was happy with the way she played too, “It was a great tournament for me and I played really, really good and showed that I can have a great year. I’m hungry, I want to win again and I’m pretty close to my best form. I’ve been working really hard, I’ve got a bigger team around me and everything is good.”

She has changed her coaching set up and looks a calmer, more confident player and she is close to her very best. The Russian will need a good start, Mauresmo's confidence can be shattered if she is not dominating. No doubt that Anastasia is the outsider, I give her a 40% chance of victory, so at the odds on offer she is a must bet.

Think the 2.70 for the Sharapova-Dementieva game to go to three sets is very fair. Maria leads the h2h 4-1, they have one meeting on grass, in Birmingham 2003, which did go to a decider.
Dementieva has improved her serve, but is now inclined to gamble on the second, averaging 8.5 double faults per game. Sharapova struggled against Pennetta yesterday, making 41 unforced errors, anything similar today will see her in big trouble. Suspect the former champion will find a way to win, but like the 3 set option.

3 points Myskina to beat Mauresmo 4.10 betfair
1.5 points Sharapova to win 2-1 sets 4.30 betfair
1 point Dementieva to win 2-1 sets 7.0 betfair

Good Luck.

After 60 matches in 25 days.......

....... we are down to just four teams. First up, the host nation take on Italy in Dortmund, where the Germans have never lost, boasting a superb 13-1-0 record, with a goal difference of 59-7.

Argentina dominated possession (58%) over Germany in the quarter finals and restricted them to just 5 chances. Some very poor decisions by the Argentine coach, allowed the Germans back into the game and he has already paid the ultimate price for his ineptitude.

Germany, without the suspended Torsten Frings, now face a miserly Italian defence which has only conceded once this tournament, an own goal against USA. In Marcelo Lippi, they have a coach who will not make the same errors Mr Pekermann made. Nesta, surprisingly, has a small chance to play, Materazzi definitely returns after his suspension.

Italy "owns" Germany, the two met in Florence in March, the Azzurri had a crushing 4-1 victory, which could have been even more. Milan and Juventus, knocked Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen out of the Champions League this year. In six previous meetings in the premier competitions, Germany have never won, although 5 did finish level in 90 minutes.

Italy are on a long unbeaten run of 23 games, rather than distracting the players, the Serie A "scandal" seems to be motivating them, maybe winning the cup is the only way they will be forgiven. They do seem to be peaking at the right time, Luca Toni has finally found the net, they have probably the best coach, certainly the best defence, Germany's is ranked only 29th in the whole tournament (which seems harsh).

Do not see Italy losing today in 90 minutes, the draw is, of course, a big danger, but see a lot of value in the asian line of +1/4.

The odds for Germany NOT to score also look big to me, 3.25 for Italy to keep a clean sheet is very attractive, have to give that a go.

5 points Italy +1/4 1.96 asian line.
2 points Italy to keep clean sheet 3.25 stan james.

Good Luck.

Jonas to tame the "Beast" ...... yet again

Jonas Bjorkman has a fantastic h2h record against "The Beast of belarus", Max Mirnyi, who he meets for a quarter-final place today. The Swede leads the series 9-1 , winning the last 6, leads 2-0 on grass, including a victory here in 2003. Coming here in his best form for sometime and following a days rest, it is hard to see why he has been made the outsider agianst his giant opponent.

Jonas loves the grass and will see this as a golden opportunity to reach the semis, in the twilight of his career, he is the best bet today.

I watched Hantuchova beat Srebotnik in the last round and was impressed, this was the best I have seen from her in a couple of years. She faces Justine Henin-Hardene today, the pair have not met for 4 years, but the h2h is 2-2 and Daniela's wins came in big tournaments, one in the US Open. Therefore, she comes with few negative memories. It will be tough, very tough to win, but maybe she could take a set, at the best odds available, we get 4.20 for that eventuality and I like those odds.

I MAY put another bet up later, waiting for some confirmation, heard that one player was injured and practise was restricted yesterday.

4 points Bjorkman to beat Mirnyi 2.24 betfair
1.5 points Henin to win 2-1 sets 6.0 stan james
1/2 point Hantuchova to beat Henin 15.0 betfair

Good Luck.

Wimbledon today .........

I like three bets today, but have no time to write any previews, sorry.

3 points Tursonov to beat Ljubicic 2.32 betfair
3 points Safina to beat Ivanovic 1.94 betfair
4 points Penetta to beat Peng 2.00 betfair

Had a really good word about Penetta and had it confirmed by a pro who makes his living betting only Ladies tennis. Safina is in good form, as outlined in an earlier post, Ivanovic has been struggling with her serve , under 47% "first serves in", recorded in both opening matches . The Russian is nearer to 70%. Think Ljubicic's short comings on grass will catch up with him today, this is Tursunov's third good year in a row here and he has yet to drop a set.

Also think the goal line for the Brazil-France match is wrong, both sides have plenty of options up front, Brazil will not want this to develope into a defensive tie, Ronaldinho will be desperate to put in a performance today, saw glimpses late in the Ghana game that the real "Ronny" was still inside that body, somewhere. Goals please and some entertainment.

4 points Brazil-France over 2.25 goals 2.16.

Back to normal tomorrow

Good Luck.

Everyone wants to back Portugal...

Every tipster seems to have gone for Portugal today. I know of three "professionals" who laid England for big money on the asian handicap, as soon as the line was produced, being singularly unimpressed by their performances so far.

You can see where this is going........ Of course I agree to a certain extent, England have hardly set the World Cup alight, but their progress in the tournament, so far, has never been in question. Feel that they must have one, hopefully 2-3, good performances in them.

Gerrard, Beckham and especially Lampard are all "due", in Cole and Rooney they have players capable of turning a match in an instant. The team will be strengthened by the return of Gary Neville, this will help them get forward quickly and hopefully, more often.

Portugal have a good squad, but are severely hit by the absence of Deco and Costinha, looks likely that Figo will move into the centre, a role he can fill, but I prefer him wide. Ronaldo is likely to play, but is, at best, 80% fit. This swings it England's way for me.

Sure that Big Phil Scolari, looking for his 12th straight finals victory, will have some tricks up his sleeve, hope it is not something too physical, 78 fouls, 18 yellow and 2 red cards, testify that they can mix it with the best. They are sure to try and upset Rooney early in the game, will not be surprised to see him booked.

I take England to win this, also think the game may not be the defensive battle everyone expects.

3 points England -1/2 2.16 asian line.
2.5 points over 2 goals 2.16 asian line.

Good Luck.