SPANISH SEGUNDA ..... ALMERIA - MALAGA

I really like the "over" here, in what is a virtual friendly.

Almeira are "over" in the last 6, with a 3.3 average in their last 10. Malaga are "over" in their last 4 , with the last 10 averaging 2.60.

This league has produced 10% more goals this season than for the last two years and over the last two weeks, with little to play for, 15 of 22 have provided 3 or more.

5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.80 Expekt/ similar on the exchanges.

Back later.

FRENCH OPEN TENNIS ....

ATP

Federer leads Youzhny 8-0 in the h2h, 17-2 in sets, with only 2 going to tie breaks.

Robredo (87-37 clay)- Volandri (150-75) h2h 3-3 all on dirt, Volandri has won the last 3, no bet for me, but could be very close.

Canas (73-25... 15-5 this season) plays Monaco (100-63 and 20-5 in 2007), Canas should be too strong, he leads h2h 2-0, 4-1 in sets, amazingly 4 of those were 6-0 ! I think he has the measure of his opponent, who cannot be looking forward to this.

Davydenko (101-53) meets Nalbandian (60-25) , h2h 2-5, Nalbandian leads 3-1 on clay and has won the last 4, including all 3 last year, which was the Russian's best ever year on tour, he is not yet in the same shape this time round.

I liked Nalbandian's post match interview after his last game, "my condition was good" and "I wanted to win at any price".... key words for a player who has not always looked the most motivated. In what looks a coinflip, he is a very nice price.

WTA

Safarova (43-20) beat Chakvetadze (25-17) fairly comfortably in Berlin just 3 weeks ago and should follow up.

Kuznetsova (57-21) is looking for revenge over Peer (34-14), the Israeli girl leads the h2h 2-0, both coming this year. Kuzzie feels that Peer is not a clay courter and is very confident of winning. Federer said that she looks in good shape, that should be good enough for anyone. Cannot see Kuznetsova losing today.

Jankovic (64-29) looks in fantastic form and put up some incredible serving stats in the win over Williams, late in the opener, her first serve percentage was 93%. No one can play at that sort of level consistently and we may see a dip today. She meets Bartoli, who will be cheered by her home crowd, the Frenchwoman is improving and took a set from Jankovic here last year. This could easily go to a decider once again and we have a fantastic price.

3.5 points Nalbandian to win 2.42 exchanges

2 points Jankovic NOT to win 2-0 sets 3.66 Pinnacle ... exchanges

3 points double Canas - Kuznetsova circa 1.47- 1.40

Good Luck.

SUNDAY PLANS ........

I have a lot to pass on for the French Open tennis this morning and will post something in 30-45 minutes, no bets for the 11.00 cet matches.

Please check back.

EURO 2008 ....

DENMARK - SWEDEN

Must win game for the hosts, who look the much stronger side to me, at least on paper. One thing is for sure, there will be no "friendly" result this time.

Sweden have gone backwards, both internationally and domestically and they will struggle to hold the very motivated hosts. Denmark have a recent win in Germany and a very unlucky loss in Spain, where they were reduced to 10 men, to their name.

4.5 points Denmark -1/2 ball 2.0 general.

GREECE- HUNGARY

The hosts will be desperate to make amends for the shame of the 4-1 defeat at home to Turkey, which was almost too much for their supporters to bear. No major concerns for Greece.

All is not well in the visitors camp, where star striker Hustzi walked out, after falling out with the coach and I understand that he is not the only one.

4.5 points Greece -1 ball 1.87 asian line.


Good Luck.

SATURDAY PLANS ..........

The French Open Tennis start times were changed this morning, which has thrown my plans off schedule.

So it will be football all the way.

WALES- CZECH REPUBLIC

"Over" for me here, Wales have a weakened defence and a VERY inexperienced young goalkeeper, who , as far as I can see, has played only 3 matches above Division 2 level, but don't quote me on that. They conceded two at home to New Zealand last week and face a far more potent attack here. The hosts have to look for the win and that will leave a lot of space for the visitors to exploit.

In the earlier group defeat 5-1 at home to Slovakia, Wales were lucky to only concede 5, comprehensively outplayed, the scoreline could have been anything. This is a poor Welsh team, led by a coach with outdated ideas.

5.5 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.78 asian line.

Back later.

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE ...... CORK - DERRY

Derry are very lack lustre at present and are probably looking forward to their mid season break. They have drawn 5 from 6, scoring just 4 goals. In the 1-1 home draw with Waterford in midweek, they created almost nothing in a very poor second half showing.

Cork are strong at home, unbeaten since forever, this season they are 3-2-0, with a 5-1 goal difference, it is hard to see the visitors getting much success in front of goal.

H2h shows that Derry are win less in 9 visits with Cork winning 6, the hosts look sound with the -1/4 ball option.

4 points Cork -1/4 1.82 asian line.

Good Luck.

ENGLAND - BRAZIL ....

England will want to win their first full International at the new Wembley stadium, but have a key Euro 2008 qualifier in midweek and will have to adopt a safety first attitude and may field 5 midfielders.

Goals are always a problem for the hosts, I think there is a good chance of a draw here, but if there is to be a winner, it can only be the visitors for me, who have a host of players eager to impress their coach.

Kaka, Ronaldinho and Robinho may enjoy the setting and turn it on.

4 points Brazil level ball 1.90 asian line.

Good Luck.

FRENCH OPEN TENNIS ....

WTA .... JELENA JANKOVIC - VENUS WILLIAMS

These two met recently on a US clay court, Venus took the opener, with Jelena eventually winning in a 3rd set tie break. That has been par for the course for the American recently, start fast and then lose concentration.

Williams says that this is because she gets over confident and it is a problem that she is addressing. In an interview on Wednesday, she says that her game has improved a lot since that match in Charleston. Going on to add that she prefers the truer bounce at RG and that she can raise her game another level.

The h2h is tied at 2-2, but Venus won their only previous meeting on red clay, in Rome.

Wonderful year for Jankovic, who is great fun to watch, she is a lifetime 63-29 on clay, but only 5-4 in Paris.

Williams is widely considered as a fast corter, but is 57-15 on clay and a very nice 33-10 at RG, where VERY interstingly, 6 of the 10 losses have been in 3 sets, so in 43 matches here only 4 have been straight set losses.

I feel the US player has been under valued and that this match should be priced up MUCH closer.

1.5 points Williams to win circa 3.35 Betfair.
LAY 3 points Jankovic 2-0 sets circa 2.26 exchanges// or bet 3.5 points NOT to win 2-0 1.775 Pinnacle.

ATP TOUR .... FERRERO- YOUZHNY

Very briefly, I do not fully understand the odds here. Youzhny is really a fast court player, with some fair recent results on clay, he is 39-32 lifetime and has never gone beyond the 3rd round here.

Ferrero is 95-37 on clay and an amazing 30-6 at RG, some good early season progress was sidetracked by a hand injury, which he has now recovered from and I have to make him quite a strong favourite.

3 points Ferrero to win 1.95 + .

Good Luck.

FRIDAY PLANS .......

I will have a post online in about 45 minutes covering the French Open Tennis.

Quite a busy day today, with at least a couple of football bets to follow later.

Not very happy about the Mickelson saga, he withdrew after 11 holes with a wrist injury, which he now claims he did on Monday, but did not tell anyone. Phil is, or at least was, a massive gambler, wonder how he would feel backing a football team, where the quarterback and the whole defensive line were injured and they didn't tell anyone ?

Back shortly.

USPGA GOLF ..... THE MEMORIAL

Phil Mickelson has employed Butch Harmon as his coach, to help fine tune his game and this has provided instant dividends.

In the three tournaments since they started working together, Big Phil has two third place finishes and a win in the "5th" major, the Players Championship.

He will have one eye on the US Open, which will be his priority for the season, but could hardly be in better shape and although he rarely plays here, his record stands up to fairly close scrutiny, fielding 4th-9th -11th places, in his last 3 starts.

Just cannot see him out of contention and he looks booked for a top 5 finish at least.

3 points Mickelson top 5 finish Memorial Tournament... 3.0 exchanges.

Good Luck.

COPA LIBERTADORES .... GREMIO - SANTOS

All Brazilian tie here and the winner will be a good favourite in the final to supply the 3rd winner from that country, in as many years.

Gremio are a team on a mission. Following relegation 3 years ago, they came straight back up and have improved each season and are looking to rediscover former glories.

Interestingly, they won this in 1983 and again, twelve years later in 1995 and in 2007 ? If they do, we have a long wait for 2019 !

The hosts are strong at home, just 3 domestic defeats in 21 starts, with 15 wins. Recent reports have been very good and this fixture is normally won by the home team, it is 10 meetings between the two, since an away win and Santos will probably look for the draw and not be too unhappy with a one goal defeat.

4.5 points Gremio -1/4 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY .... AUSTRIA - SCOTLAND

Austrian football is in a mess, two of their biggest clubs have been declared bankrupt and the national coach, has fallen out with several of his senior and most experienced players.

As a result they will be fielding a defence short on experience this evening. Austria find it almost impossible to keep a clean sheet anyway, conceding in at least 11 in a row, including against such luminaries as Canada, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Liechtenstein and Trinidad & Tobago.

Scotland look to have a few goals in them nowadays and Kris Boyd will fancy his chances against this makeshift defence. Several others have something to prove and are looking to cement a place in the side, including Garry O'Connor, who is being given a second chance, after walking out on the team.

These two met two years ago and shared 4 goals, something similar tonight would not surprise me and I expect an "over".

4.5 points "over" 2.25 goals Austria-Scotland 1.93 asian line.

Good Luck.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP OUTRIGHT .....

Just a quick look at the early outright prices for the 2007-08 Premiership season.

Current best prices are ...

CHELSEA 2.62
MANCHESTER UNITED 2.80
LIVERPOOL 6.50
ARSENAL 10.0

Blog sponsors, Sunderlands, have a stand out 2.80 top quote on United retaining their crown. They also offer 1/2 the odds a place 1.2 , the only other bookmakers offering each-way terms are 1/3rd 1.2.

I am still mulling over my selection, but if you cannot see United out of the top 2, these enhanced place terms mean you have, virtually, a bet to nothing. With the place part paying 1.90.

They are also next biggest @ 6.0 for Liverpool, with the top 2 finish place part, paying 3.50.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY PLANS .....

I have a lot of news to pass on today, looking at making 5-6 posts, not exactly sure how many bets that will translate into.

Want to start with a very small bet for one of the early WTA matches in Roland Garros.

It is very speculative, as it is for a player returning from a long term injury.

Anastasia Myskina has only played one match this season, but has been closing in on a return for several weeks, she had no plans to play RG, but her training has gone so well, that she decided she had no choice.

She meets Megan Shaughnessy and this is the deciding factor to chance a little on the former French Open champion, at a huge price. Shaughnessy has had a poor season, is 6-13 for the year and has lost 6 matches to players ranked outside the top 100.

Myskina has no pressure on her, this is all a bonus and if she plays as well as she has in training, then she has a real chance to beat her out of form opponent.

As I say, this is speculative, but that is why the odds are so big, so let's keep the stakes small.

1.5 points Myskina 2.92 exchanges.

Good Luck

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE ..... SLIGO ROVERS - DROGHEDA UNITED

Drogheda fell behind in the title race with a 2-0 home loss on Friday night. They were very disappointed by that loss, as they created a lot of chances and are looking to bounce back this evening.

They can hardly complain about a visit to Sligo, who have conceded 9 goals in their last 4 starts and 18 all season, a total "beaten" only by basement club, Longford.

Drogheda have won the last 2 meetings between the two, scoring 3 each time and should be looking forward to this.

4 points Drogheda -1/2 ball 1.97 asian line

Good Luck.

FRENCH OPEN TENNIS .... WTA .... TIMEA BACSINSZKY - JIE ZHENG

I have to oppose the Chinese girl.

Zheng came here last season in decent form, with ten wins on clay, including a tournament win in Estoril. It is a different story this year and she has yet to win on red clay, losing in her first match in both Rome and Berlin.

The 17 yo Bacsinszky was the world number one as a 14 yo, is a former junior semi-finalist here and is just coming to terms with the senior game.

She won a challenger event on dirt 5 weeks ago and has breezed through qualifying here, not dropping a set and losing only 11 games in 3 matches.

Comfortable on clay, where she has played over 63% of all her matches and boasts a 48-20 record, at odds against she is value.

3 points Bacsinszky 2.16 Pinnacle // 2.14+ exchanges.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF .... DERBY COUNTY - WEST BROMWICH ALBION

I have been quite a fan of WBA this season and feel they are the classier of the two outfits.

However, since the injury to Davies, they have had problems in central defence and, much as I like former Brentford star, Sam Sodje, he can go walkabout at times and get caught out of position at this level. I can see Howard causing plenty of problems for the Albion rearguard.

My feeling is that both will score and that this could go all the way, the draw looks far and away the best bet to me. The pitch is going to be very draining, the amount of rain that has fallen in the last 24-36 hours in the South is just ridiculous.

This match is worth £60m to the winner following the new television deals, this puts a huge amount of pressure on all concerned and under such conditions, teams first priority is not to lose.

If any of you like the yellow/ red card markets and can find a price, Sodje has a suspect temperament. He was sent off at Old Trafford for Reading, a matter of minutes after coming on as sub and was sent off 5 times in one season in non league football, he could always have another rush of blood to the head.

4 points Derby-WBA draw 3.20 + general quote.

Back later.

Good Luck.

FRENCH OPEN TENNIS ....

I think only 7 matches were completed at Roland Garros yesterday and the weather forecast is no better for today.

There is very little more frustrating in the betting world, than watching rain fall on an empty court, knowing that two matches have to be played, before your match even starts.

Therefore, I am going to pass today and wait for the weather to improve.

Back later.

WEEKLY REVIEW ....

We really managed to turn the week around, with 8 winners from 10 selections over the weekend.

Just a tiny profit for the 7 days on the blog, but another winning period, making an amazing, 46 winning weeks out of 60.

WEEK 60 RESULTS

BLOG 18 bets , 10 winners ( 55.55%) profit + 1.23 pts ROI 1.58 % ( 78)

EMAIL SERVICE 27 bets, 17 winners ( 62.96% ) profit + 22.08 pts ROI 17.58% ( 126)

Almost 21 points extra profit for email subscribers, on the service that pays for itself.

Good Night.

IT'S NICE TO BE RIGHT SOMETIMES !

I wrote the following on the blog earlier today and sent the full post to my email subscribers several days ago.


"Totti needs 2 goals to win the European Golden Boot award, the club are determined to get their favourite son, this trophy and will do everything they can to arrange it.



He will score, probably two, the match will be "over", but everyone will know this anyway. I do not know if Messina will be involved in any collusion, but it is not impossible and if they are, it is unlikely they will lose 2-0 with him scoring both, that is going to look very suspicious.



My idea is that there will be goals, maybe lots of them, 3-2 3-3 4-3 4-2 4-4 all of these are possible. If you can find odds for over 4.5, 5.5 or 6.5 goals then they could be great value, or for a cheap alternative, maybe a group of these very high correct scores. I do expect Messina to score a couple too."



RESULT 4-3 .... TOTTI SCORED TWO GOALS.... everything highlighted was correct, 6 "winners " in one match, 4-3 was circa 150-1 on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

LA LIGA ..... RACING SANTANDER- LEVANTE

Racing have the opportunity to do a massive favour to their neighbours Bilbao, Sociedad and even Osasuna, by defeating Levante.

This could benefit them enormously in the coming seasons, their recent form has fallen away, but no team outside the top 5 has won more home games and the quote is very fair.

Levante are without 7 players , two suspended and 5 injured. They were hammered 4-1 at home by Osasuna last week, giving up 54% possession and despite winning at Celta the previous outing, posted some alarming stats, when they conceded 66% possession and allowed 20 attempts at their goal.

4.5 points Santander -1/4 ball 2.06 asian line.

Good Luck.

NETHERLANDS CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLAY-OFF ..... AJAX - AZ

Massive game, with a financial fortune at stake.

AZ won the first leg with an injury time winner, therefore a win and only a win, will do for the hosts.

The visitors have problems, due to a dispute, only 3 (!) supporters will make the trip and on Friday, only 14 squad members, were fit enough to train and a couple of those were carrying knocks.

Ajax have everything in their favour and have the class to win, even without Wesley Sneijder.

4.5 points Ajax -1/2 ball 1.80 + general quote. WON 3-0 + 3.6 points

Good Luck.

SERIE A .... ROMA - MESSINA

Totti needs 2 goals to win the European Golden Boot award, the club are determined to get their favourite son, this trophy and will do everything they can to arrange it.

He will score, probably two, the match will be "over", but everyone will know this anyway. I do not know if Messina will be involved in any collusion, but it is not impossible and if they are, it is unlikely they will lose 2-0 with him scoring both, that is going to look very suspicious.

My idea is that there will be goals, maybe lots of them, 3-2 3-3 4-3 4-2 4-4 all of these are possible. If you can find odds for over 4.5, 5.5 or 6.5 goals then they could be great value, or for a cheap alternative, maybe a group of these very high correct scores. I do expect Messina to score a couple too.

I wrote the above several days ago, on the email service and most of the bigger odds for the "overs" have gone, but I still like the over 4.5 goals option. There are also some massive correct scores around, for example 3-2 ... 34.0 , 4-2 .... 67.0, 3-3 ... 67.0 , this is not a normal game and the odds should be lower.

Messina have a defensive crisis, this should be a 4 goal plus game and fun to watch.

2.5 points "over" 4.5 goals Roma-Messina 2.90 + exchanges. won + 4.6075 pts (after comm)

Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING ...........

We have managed to turn the week around on the blog with six straight winners, let's hope that we can build on that today.

I spent a long time looking at the tennis today, but have decided to wait until tomorrow, where I have at least one very strong selection. So please look in early tomorrow morning, when there will be a post online by 10.00 cet.

Football all the way today, 3-4 bets on the blog, I will post the first in the next hour or so.

Back shortly.

DFB CUP FINAL ..... STUTTGART - NURNBERG

Stuttgart are looking to complete the double and what an achievement that would be !

However, they are facing something of a bogey side in Nurnberg, who did the league double over the Champions,with a 7-1 goal difference, the second of these matches produced almost 30 attempts on goal.

I feel that we will see a few more goals today. There is certainly a history of them, with 5 of the last 7 finals ending "over", with an average of 3.43 per game and no draws.

Both are already qualified for european football next season, so no added pressure there, we could/ should see quite an entertaining, open game.

4 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.72 asian line. Result 2-2 + 2.88 PTS

Good Luck.

This will be the last bet on the blog today. The "fourth" bet, which I sent to email subscribers overnight, has been backed from 1.83 down to 1.63 and so, the true value has now gone.

In addition, a wager given for tomorrow's football has also fallen from 1.89 to 1.73 and the last three email "exclusives", or selections not given on the blog, have all won.

It is not too late to join, there are still a limited number of spots still available, just click this link for details, or the GOWI advert, in the left hand column.

LA LIGA ...... REAL MADRID - DEPORTIVO

These two teams meet in very different form and spirit.

Real have the title destiny in their own hands and have won 5 in a row, scoring 16 goals.

Depor have had a very disappointing season, have nothing to play for, are on a win less run of 5 matches and would like to be on vacation already, their minds are already on the beach.

Tough looking quote, but I am confident that Real will cover it.

5 points Real Madrid -1.5 goals 1.83 asian line.

WON 3-1 + 4.15 PTS

Good Luck.

DIVISION 2 PLAY-OFF FINAL ..... BRISTOL ROVERS - SHREWSBURY TOWN

I have been talking about Rovers potential, for several months now and they are proving that today, by taking 40,000 supporters to Wembley.

This should be tight, the three earlier meetings this season, produced just two goals, each of which earned the Bristol side a victory.

Town are without 3 important players and that swings the advantage to Paul Trollope's men in my book.

Rovers are unbeaten in 9, winning the last 5, have two strikers in tip top form and are the classier outfit, with , in my opinion, 3 players of Championship standard.

Their previous final this season at the Millenium Stadium and general cup exploits, should also serve them well, many of the Town players will never have even played in front of a 5 figure crowd before, let alone a 70,000 one.

4.5 points Bristol Rovers -1/4 ball 1.98 asian line. WON 3-1 + 4.41 PTS

Good Luck.

SATURDAY PLANS ..........

Good Morning !

I am going to have at least three more selections online today, maybe even a fourth. Trying to check something out at the moment. Will put the first post online before midday.

Remember, for the next week or so, the French Open tennis will be starting early every day and I expect to make some money, try to look in, first thing in the morning.

Back later.

LA LIGA ..... OSASUNA - SOCIEDAD .... SUNDAY

Basque teams have a friendly rivalry, but if one team is in trouble, it is usual for them to help each other out.

Osasuna are not 100% safe, but are 7 points clear of relegation, with 3 rounds to go and hold the h2h edge, over the other strugglers.

They owe Sociedad big time, in the last game of the 00/01 season, they went to their neighbours needed a win to avoid relegation, they won 1-0 with much of the game, following the goal played in midfield. The home fans were booing, if their own team went near the opposition goal .

I think this is very likely to be an away win.

5 points Sociedad 2.22 + exchanges.

Good Luck.

JAPAN J LEAGUE .... JEF UNITED ICHIHARA - GAMBA OSAKA

Gamba are set to fight out the Championship with Urawa Reds and will need maximum points here. They lead by 2 points and Urawa have an easy looking home fixture this weekend.

United are in poor form, without a win in 6 and have conceded 7, in their last 2 starts.

Gamba have lost just once in 10 and are scoring very freely with 15 in their last 6. The two met here in the cup last month with Gamba earning a narrow 1-0 victory, it should be easier this time .

4.5 points Gamba -1/2 ball 1.80 asian line..... early start tomorrow morning.
WON 2-1 +3.6 PTS




Back later.

LIGUE 2 ..... DIJON - STRASBOURG

I fully expect the home win here, Dijon are without two suspended players, but otherwise have no real problems. They are scoring regularly and could hardly be meeting their opponents at a better time.

Strasbourg secured promotion last week and have nothing to play for today. They were rewarded with a trip to Ibiza, where the team have been all week. It is fair to say that tonight's game has been a very low priority. Home win.

The level ball option has now disappeared, but the odds for the straight win are still very tempting.

4 points Dijon -1/2 ball 2.30 + general quote. WON 3-1 + 5.2 PTS

Good Luck.

NIORT- AJACCIO

I have discussed many times how strong Niort are at home, just the one defeat in two seasons.

They need a win to be safe from relegation, or rely on results from elsewhere and suffer a very nervous 90 minutes.

Ajaccio are 3-3-10 on the road, have nothing to play for and are without 12 players this evening !

Very short odds, but I cannot see any other result.

5.5 points Niort -1/2 ball 1.42 Centrebet / exchanges WON 3-0 + 2.31 PTS

Good Luck.

GOOD MORNING !

We have a little ground to make up on the blog this week and, on the basis that there is no time like the present, think that I have some winners to pass on today, the recovery mission is underway !

I am going to post 4 selections on the site, all are for football and at least 3, will be for this evening's action. The first will be online at around 13.30 cet, please check back.

Good Luck.

SWEDISH SUPERETTEN .... ORGRYTE - HACKEN

I am very sorry, no time to write any preview for this game and trying to type this on the move, much more free time tomorrow and I have a lot of things to cover, so please check back then.

So, we have a Goteborg derby, which is normally won by the away team. Hackens look the classier outfit and I have received a very good word about them, from a reliable source, who watches a lot of football at this level.

4 points Hackens +1/4 ball 1.85 asian line. ( SORRY, this should have read -1/4 ball, as I said I was typing on the move, think today is the first time I have ever done this, in 14 months, apologies) 1-1 DRAW - 2 POINTS

Good Luck.

FINLAND ..... HAKA - MYPA

I like the "over" here. Neither have been exactly free scoring this year, but this is a fixture that always produces goals, 10 of the last 13 have been "over" with an average of 4.23 per start.

The key here is that Mypa have stepped up a level recently and are creating a lot of chances, there are some concerns about the home defence and this should comfortably cover the goal line ...... so 0-0 it is then !

5 points over 2.25 goals Haka-Mypa 1.95 asian line. lost -5 pts

Good luck.