I have no idea how the tennis bet lost today, Ljubicic was 5-2 up in the second set and the match looked set for a decider. Then I had to leave the house, always a disaster, even changing seats is unlucky, let alone leaving the building ! So it was my fault really.
Both football bets on the blog won, as did all four on the email service, the other two were both strong selections, the first won by 3 goals and the second was an "over" bet, which was a winner after 16 minutes !
I have some very strong ideas for tomorrow and will do my best to put something on the blog, so try and take a look.
Good night and good luck !
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
SCOTTISH LEAGUE CUP.....DUNDEE UNITED - HAMILTON
United are very strong at home (6-1-0) where they have conceded just one single goal, a heavily disputed penalty, in the 2-1 win over Rangers at the weekend.
They are naming their strongest available starting eleven and are also determined to win some silverware this season, with this, their best opportunity. Hamilton have a good lead at the top of League 1 and that, for them, should be a priority, especially with a few injury concerns. Most of their best results have come at home, on their artificial surface and there is a substantial class difference.
5.5 points Dundee United -3/4 ball 1.75 asian line.
Good Luck.
ENGLAND..... CARLING CUP
TOTTENHAM - BLACKPOOL
The visitors are tough to break down, but their form has tailed off a little and for Spurs and their new coach, this has become a very important game and competition. Think that they will come out fired up and will want to stamp out the chanting for Jol before it builds up any momemtum.
The visitors have a number of problems and it is not like Spurs have struggled to score at home, only Arsenal and Manchester United have managed more. Ramos is an attacking coach and can win the fans over quickly, with a convincing win.
6 points Spurs -1.5 balls 1.73 asian line.
The visitors are tough to break down, but their form has tailed off a little and for Spurs and their new coach, this has become a very important game and competition. Think that they will come out fired up and will want to stamp out the chanting for Jol before it builds up any momemtum.
The visitors have a number of problems and it is not like Spurs have struggled to score at home, only Arsenal and Manchester United have managed more. Ramos is an attacking coach and can win the fans over quickly, with a convincing win.
6 points Spurs -1.5 balls 1.73 asian line.
Good Luck.
ATP ..PARIS MASTERS ... LJUBICIC- BAGHDATIS
This should be another entertaining match, where "over" looks the best option. Baggy leads the h2h 3-1, winning the only meeting on carpet, but Ljubo took the last, just a couple of weeks ago in Beijing. None have been straight set wins and the last three have all gone the distance, in very close sets. Both have excellent records on the surface and it seems unlikely that either will run away with this. In the recent match in China the stats were as evenly matched as it is possible to be, almost identical, hard to see this not going all the way.
4.5 points "over" 23.5 games 1.84 Pinnacle.
4.5 points "over" 23.5 games 1.84 Pinnacle.
I previewed 4 football matches on the email service and will post one or two of them on the blog, later this afternoon.
Good Luck.
GOOD MORNING !
We have a very busy Wednesday on the sporting front and there is a lot that I am interested in. Not sure exactly what my plans are for posting on the blog, but will update that situation a little later, probably along with a look at today's tennis.
Please check back.
Please check back.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
ENGLISH FA CUP REPLAYS .............
HITCHIN - WEYMOUTH
I have seen the home team play in recent months and they were very poor, they may well have improved a little, but are nowhere close to BSP level. Having said that, they almost won the first game, conceding a late equaliser.
However, that was down to Weymouth's poor display, they took 75 minutes to get going, yet it still took a heroic display from the visiting keeper, to prevent them from completely turning things around. Weymouth are able to field a stronger side tonight and will be especially boosted by the return of Paolo Vernazza. They have been stronger on the road recently in any case, scoring 2 or more in each of their last 5 away fixtures.
6 points Weymouth -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line.... now 1.75, so I would suggest reducing stakes a little.
I have seen the home team play in recent months and they were very poor, they may well have improved a little, but are nowhere close to BSP level. Having said that, they almost won the first game, conceding a late equaliser.
However, that was down to Weymouth's poor display, they took 75 minutes to get going, yet it still took a heroic display from the visiting keeper, to prevent them from completely turning things around. Weymouth are able to field a stronger side tonight and will be especially boosted by the return of Paolo Vernazza. They have been stronger on the road recently in any case, scoring 2 or more in each of their last 5 away fixtures.
6 points Weymouth -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line.... now 1.75, so I would suggest reducing stakes a little.
Good Luck.
FA CUP REPLAYS .....
HALIFAX - EVESHAM
These two drew 0-0 at the weekend and the hosts celebrated as though they had won the cup ! They set out their stall to stop Halifax from scoring and did so .... just.
The visitors created a host of chances, they have much greater quality, which you would expect with 3 leagues between these two and it will be hard for the (very) part time Evesham to raise their game twice in three days. If the first goal comes, I am sure that more will follow, Town do have plenty of striking options, even if they are not firing on all cylinders and given their financial problems, which we talked about earlier this season, need the funds that a cup run would bring. Even a win today is worth £10k, something of a lifeline for clubs at this level.
5.5 points Halifax -1.25 goals 1.93 asian line..... NOW 1.85
Back later.
These two drew 0-0 at the weekend and the hosts celebrated as though they had won the cup ! They set out their stall to stop Halifax from scoring and did so .... just.
The visitors created a host of chances, they have much greater quality, which you would expect with 3 leagues between these two and it will be hard for the (very) part time Evesham to raise their game twice in three days. If the first goal comes, I am sure that more will follow, Town do have plenty of striking options, even if they are not firing on all cylinders and given their financial problems, which we talked about earlier this season, need the funds that a cup run would bring. Even a win today is worth £10k, something of a lifeline for clubs at this level.
5.5 points Halifax -1.25 goals 1.93 asian line..... NOW 1.85
Back later.
Monday, October 29, 2007
DENVER BRONCOS - GREEN BAY PACKERS .... MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
I am going to side with the Broncos, they owe me a win and are desperate for the victory that will put them firmly in the hunt for a division title.
I like Brett Favre, who has given me plenty of entertainment over the years, many years, but he has always struggled against the Broncos, putting up his lowest ever numbers, against any NFL team. He has yet to throw a touchdown pass in Denver, where the Pack always struggle.
Get the feeling that GB will come out of their normal game plan, they throw the ball 68% of the time, but that is unlikely to work against the Broncos number 1 ranked pass defense. So they have used their bye week, to try and develope a running game, but that might take longer than an extra seven days ! Just because they want to run the ball, doesn't just make it happen.
Both teams are banged up, but given their home field advantage and greater need, plus the fact that they managed to move the ball consistently against the Steelers number one ranked defence last week, it is the Broncos for me.
4 points Denver -3 points 1.98 Pinnacle/ Vegas.
Good Luck.
MONDAY'S EMAIL ....
These were today's three email selections ......
FRENCH LIGUE 2
NIORT - NANTES
I like the draw here for the brave amongst you, but am going to take the hosts, plus the handicap start. Think that they will be fired up meeting the top team in Ligue 2 and will be eager to get a positive result on home soil. After losing just once in some 40 matches across two seasons, they have four home defeats to their name already this campaign. Of course, as so often happens, their normally suspect away form, has improved ! That is what makes football so much fun !
Nantes have something of a mini crisis and are missing a handful of players, they are short of options in midfield, especially in the creative department.
4.5 points Niort +1/2 ball 2.0 asian line. now 1.86
DENMARK ... AaB- ESBJERG
Hosts are the most inform team in the Premier league with 7 wins in 10 starts and a long unbeaten run. They will join Midtjylland at the top of the table with a win and actually take the lead, with a winning margin of 3 goals or more. This is a massive incentive for any team, but especially in a league where such opportunities are limited. The 3 goal win maybe beyond them, as they are without their top scorer, but I still feel they will not let the three points slip.
H2h wise they have dominated recent meetings, winning the last four at home, three by 2 goals or more and the last seven meetings overall.
They might drift a little, given the team news, so you will have to decide whether to wait and bet later in the day, obviously, I can only put them up at the current quote.
4.5 points AaB -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line. as predicted, line is up to 1.96
ATP MASTERS SERIES PARIS
JUAN-MARTIN DEL POTRO- FELICIANO LOPEZ
Lopez did us a favour recently, but I am deserting him today, in favour of the very promising young Argentine player, del Potro, who only celebrated his 19th birthday last month. He is happy on this indoor carpet, winning almost 70% of his, admittedly limited ATP matches on the surface, including two tough qualifying matches here, which will have left him battle hardened and have proved his well being.
Lopez is only batting at 44% on carpet and will have negative memories of their only previous meeting, which also came indoors, in Memphis, earlier this year. Del Potro won 1&2, he allowed the Spaniard just one break point and returned really well, Lopez struggled to win anything behind his second serve and I do not see him as favourite today.
4.5 points del Potro 2.0 + general quote. won in straight sets 6-3 6-4
Back shortly.
FRENCH LIGUE 2
NIORT - NANTES
I like the draw here for the brave amongst you, but am going to take the hosts, plus the handicap start. Think that they will be fired up meeting the top team in Ligue 2 and will be eager to get a positive result on home soil. After losing just once in some 40 matches across two seasons, they have four home defeats to their name already this campaign. Of course, as so often happens, their normally suspect away form, has improved ! That is what makes football so much fun !
Nantes have something of a mini crisis and are missing a handful of players, they are short of options in midfield, especially in the creative department.
4.5 points Niort +1/2 ball 2.0 asian line. now 1.86
DENMARK ... AaB- ESBJERG
Hosts are the most inform team in the Premier league with 7 wins in 10 starts and a long unbeaten run. They will join Midtjylland at the top of the table with a win and actually take the lead, with a winning margin of 3 goals or more. This is a massive incentive for any team, but especially in a league where such opportunities are limited. The 3 goal win maybe beyond them, as they are without their top scorer, but I still feel they will not let the three points slip.
H2h wise they have dominated recent meetings, winning the last four at home, three by 2 goals or more and the last seven meetings overall.
They might drift a little, given the team news, so you will have to decide whether to wait and bet later in the day, obviously, I can only put them up at the current quote.
4.5 points AaB -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line. as predicted, line is up to 1.96
ATP MASTERS SERIES PARIS
JUAN-MARTIN DEL POTRO- FELICIANO LOPEZ
Lopez did us a favour recently, but I am deserting him today, in favour of the very promising young Argentine player, del Potro, who only celebrated his 19th birthday last month. He is happy on this indoor carpet, winning almost 70% of his, admittedly limited ATP matches on the surface, including two tough qualifying matches here, which will have left him battle hardened and have proved his well being.
Lopez is only batting at 44% on carpet and will have negative memories of their only previous meeting, which also came indoors, in Memphis, earlier this year. Del Potro won 1&2, he allowed the Spaniard just one break point and returned really well, Lopez struggled to win anything behind his second serve and I do not see him as favourite today.
4.5 points del Potro 2.0 + general quote. won in straight sets 6-3 6-4
Back shortly.
MONDAY PLANS AND SUNDAY REVIEW .....
It was nice to restart after the break, with a winning day. All three football selections on the blog won, for an almost 15 points profit and no damage was done on the NFL with one winner, one loser. Even the loser helped me learn something, as I will not be opposing the Patriots again this season, regardless of opponent or circumstances, they are too good !
I have written previews of three matches on the email service today and am likely to post one of those on the blog and also take a look at tonight's NFL game.
Of the eight matches previewed on the service yesterday, six won, one and a half bets lost. The newsletter has continued in excellent form and just before the break, I sent this wager three day's before the fixture....
MLS WEEKEND... DC UNITED- COLOMBUS CREW
This is a friendly, United have already won the Supporters Shield and are extremely likely to rest all their key players ahead of the play offs, giving the youngsters an outing, most of their stars have a lot of games and travel under their belts. No doubt that Colombus will do something similar, now that they cannot reach the post season, but the chance to end their campaign by beating the number one ranked team, might be too much a temptation to pass up.Think we have to chance a little at a huge price.
2 points Columbus Crew straight win 7.50 + general // 8.50 Stan James. won 3-2
This is a friendly, United have already won the Supporters Shield and are extremely likely to rest all their key players ahead of the play offs, giving the youngsters an outing, most of their stars have a lot of games and travel under their belts. No doubt that Colombus will do something similar, now that they cannot reach the post season, but the chance to end their campaign by beating the number one ranked team, might be too much a temptation to pass up.Think we have to chance a little at a huge price.
2 points Columbus Crew straight win 7.50 + general // 8.50 Stan James. won 3-2
This was one part, of one email and a £16 single wager, would have paid for the service for 12 weeks ! Further details can be found on this link or, as always, you are welcome to email me with any questions. I am going to take another 16 subscribers at the current rates.
That concludes the sales pitch for today ! I will post my first selection later this afternoon.
Please check back.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
NFL .... WEEK 8
I am still trying to catch up on things after my break, so can only write a few lines about the two NFL games that I am interested in, apologies for that.
SAN FRANCICO 49 ERS - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Incredibly, the Saints are still in the hunt after losing their first 4 games, infact, if they can find a way to win this, they could soon have a winning record, with two winnable home fixtures up next. They will be without centre Jeff Faine, which is a negative, but meet the worst offense in the NFL, never thought I would be writing that about the 49ers ! SF have yet to score over 20 points and have totalled only 25 in their last 3 starts. Saints to win their third straight.
4.5 points New Orleans 1.84 money line Pinnacle/Vegas.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- WASHINGTON REDSKINS
It is hard to fault the Patriots who have a perfect 7-0 record and have yet to be held below 34 points, winning every game by at least 17 points ! However, they have only met one top 10 ranked defense and they certainly meet one today. I feel that New England will have one eye on next weeks eagerly awaited game with Indianapolis and that over two touchdowns is a massive start to give up, against the well coached Skins.
5 points Washinton + 15.5 points 1.93 Pinnacle/Vegas.
Good Luck.
ITALY SERIE A .....
SIENA - REGGINA
There are very few goals when these two meet. Four of the last 5 here have been drawn, with just one goal in four starts.Home and away, 5 of the last 7 have produced a single goal, or less. They are both draw specialists, with Reggina recording 4 from 8 stalemates and the hosts with a 50% record at home. Both are likely to play with an identical 4-4-1-1 formation, which could easily cancel each other out, especially early on, so the half time draw for me.
4.5 points half time draw 2.00 + , 2.10 Corals.
There are very few goals when these two meet. Four of the last 5 here have been drawn, with just one goal in four starts.Home and away, 5 of the last 7 have produced a single goal, or less. They are both draw specialists, with Reggina recording 4 from 8 stalemates and the hosts with a 50% record at home. Both are likely to play with an identical 4-4-1-1 formation, which could easily cancel each other out, especially early on, so the half time draw for me.
4.5 points half time draw 2.00 + , 2.10 Corals.
Back later.
DIVISION 1 ....
DONCASTER ROVERS- LEYTON ORIENT
I like this Rovers squad, which has a lot of quality, they were conceding far too freely but have addressed that problem, which to be fair, was mainly down to an extensive injury list and problems in central defence. They have kept three consecutive clean sheets and at free flowing Forest last week, restricted their inform hosts to just 4 attempts on goal, only one on target.
This is a big game for them, currently in 15th place in the table and with 3 of the next 4, including the next two, away from the Keepmoat Stadium, the three points which would take them to within two of a playoff spot, are seen as vital.
The visitors could go back to the top with a win, but are not in great shape and have only beaten Port Vale in their last 4 and are really struggling at the back. They have conceded 16 goals in just 6 starts and this season,more than any team in the top 15 , that is simply not table topping form.
These two will almost certainly switch league positions before too long and it is the classy home side for me.
5.5 points Doncaster -1/4 ball 1.74 asian line.
I like this Rovers squad, which has a lot of quality, they were conceding far too freely but have addressed that problem, which to be fair, was mainly down to an extensive injury list and problems in central defence. They have kept three consecutive clean sheets and at free flowing Forest last week, restricted their inform hosts to just 4 attempts on goal, only one on target.
This is a big game for them, currently in 15th place in the table and with 3 of the next 4, including the next two, away from the Keepmoat Stadium, the three points which would take them to within two of a playoff spot, are seen as vital.
The visitors could go back to the top with a win, but are not in great shape and have only beaten Port Vale in their last 4 and are really struggling at the back. They have conceded 16 goals in just 6 starts and this season,more than any team in the top 15 , that is simply not table topping form.
These two will almost certainly switch league positions before too long and it is the classy home side for me.
5.5 points Doncaster -1/4 ball 1.74 asian line.
Good Luck.
ENGLAND PREMIERSHIP
BOLTON - ASTON VILLA
Gary Megson ! I really do not know what is going on at Bolton, but this has not been a popular appointment and the fans are very unhappy with the board, most of this anger is going to be focused on Megson and time is most definitely not on his side. It will be interesting to see if he has the man management skills (unlikely) to handle such as Anelka and Diouf.
Under the circumstances, I feel that he would accept a point today, just to kick start things and that could be enough to take them off the bottom of the table. That might also be a result that Villa could live with after conceding 4 last week and missing two key starters in Carson and Reo-Coker.
History of draws between these two, with 5 of the last 7 meetings ending all square and three with a 2-2 scoreline, which is not out of the question today.
3 points draw 3.30 general quote.
1 point 2-2 correct score 15.0 +, 17.0 in places.
Gary Megson ! I really do not know what is going on at Bolton, but this has not been a popular appointment and the fans are very unhappy with the board, most of this anger is going to be focused on Megson and time is most definitely not on his side. It will be interesting to see if he has the man management skills (unlikely) to handle such as Anelka and Diouf.
Under the circumstances, I feel that he would accept a point today, just to kick start things and that could be enough to take them off the bottom of the table. That might also be a result that Villa could live with after conceding 4 last week and missing two key starters in Carson and Reo-Coker.
History of draws between these two, with 5 of the last 7 meetings ending all square and three with a 2-2 scoreline, which is not out of the question today.
3 points draw 3.30 general quote.
1 point 2-2 correct score 15.0 +, 17.0 in places.
Back shortly.
SUNDAY PLANS ......
Good Morning !
I have returned ! Sent subscribers previews of eight football matches today and will cover several of these and also some NFL action on the blog a little later.
Going to start with a couple of early kick offs, which will be posted around 13.00 UK time.
Please check back.
I have returned ! Sent subscribers previews of eight football matches today and will cover several of these and also some NFL action on the blog a little later.
Going to start with a couple of early kick offs, which will be posted around 13.00 UK time.
Please check back.
Friday, October 19, 2007
TAKING A BREAK ................
This will be my final missive for a week, my next post will be on Sunday October 28th, I am going to take a short break.
Aside from Christmas Day, I have blogged and/or emailed on each of the last 365 days and feel a little drained. Hopefully, I will return refreshed and ready to pick some winners .
I have previewed several of today's matches in the posts below.
Good luck in the meantime and speak to all of you next week, put a note in your diary !
LEAGUE 1 ...
CARLISLE UNITED - GILLINGHAM
Gills are quite strong at home, but on the road, oh dear ! They have lost all six away, scoring once and conceding 19. Under the circumstances a long trip to highflying Carlisle is not ideal. The hosts have only failed to score once this season and have notched 8 in the last two home starts.United face a very difficult run of fixtures after this game and after dropping points at Yeovil, in an end to end encounter, despite taking the lead, will really be up for this one. This is the longest trip of the season for the managerless Gills, who have had a touch of the flu at the club this week, until the new boss arrives, this is not the type of fixture they are likely to get a result from.
5 points Carlisle -3/4 ball 1.83 asian line.
CREWE ALEXANDRA- LUTON TOWN
Not going to waste too much time talking about Luton, as I covered them in detail earlier in the week. they ran in 4 goals that night and it could easily have been seven ! Crewe create very little and have totalled just 28 attempts on target, a dismal figure. A second huge boost for Luton this week, with the opening of an impressive new training complex which they own, unusual at this level. An ambitious club going in the opposite direction to Crewe, who have sold one,or more likely, twenty, players too many.
4 points Luton -1/2 ball 2.65 general// 2.75 in places
SWANSEA CITY- HARTLEPOOL UNITED
You are all aware of the very high regard that I hold Swansea and their coach Roberto Martinez, they have gone top of the league, playing good football, scoring a host of goals, with half a team missing. Now almost everyone is fit and they have an abundance of options.Pool are quite a promising side, but maybe just a little below playoff standard, they have given up a lot of chances in their last two league starts and were pushed back and outplayed for long periods, at home to Bristol Rovers last time out. Home win.
5.5 points Swansea -1/2 ball 1.87 asian line.
Good Luck.
Gills are quite strong at home, but on the road, oh dear ! They have lost all six away, scoring once and conceding 19. Under the circumstances a long trip to highflying Carlisle is not ideal. The hosts have only failed to score once this season and have notched 8 in the last two home starts.United face a very difficult run of fixtures after this game and after dropping points at Yeovil, in an end to end encounter, despite taking the lead, will really be up for this one. This is the longest trip of the season for the managerless Gills, who have had a touch of the flu at the club this week, until the new boss arrives, this is not the type of fixture they are likely to get a result from.
5 points Carlisle -3/4 ball 1.83 asian line.
CREWE ALEXANDRA- LUTON TOWN
Not going to waste too much time talking about Luton, as I covered them in detail earlier in the week. they ran in 4 goals that night and it could easily have been seven ! Crewe create very little and have totalled just 28 attempts on target, a dismal figure. A second huge boost for Luton this week, with the opening of an impressive new training complex which they own, unusual at this level. An ambitious club going in the opposite direction to Crewe, who have sold one,or more likely, twenty, players too many.
4 points Luton -1/2 ball 2.65 general// 2.75 in places
SWANSEA CITY- HARTLEPOOL UNITED
You are all aware of the very high regard that I hold Swansea and their coach Roberto Martinez, they have gone top of the league, playing good football, scoring a host of goals, with half a team missing. Now almost everyone is fit and they have an abundance of options.Pool are quite a promising side, but maybe just a little below playoff standard, they have given up a lot of chances in their last two league starts and were pushed back and outplayed for long periods, at home to Bristol Rovers last time out. Home win.
5.5 points Swansea -1/2 ball 1.87 asian line.
Good Luck.
ENGLAND .... CHAMPIONSHIP
SHEFFIELD UNITED- PRESTON NORTH END
We have had crunch time for a lot of teams this week and now it is United's turn, if they are to do anything this season, they had better start with 3 points today, against a PNE side that is poor on the road and were comprehensively outplayed by a decidedly average Ipswich team, last time out, in that game PNE did not have a single attempt on target, save for a very late and dubious penalty. Boss Bryan Robson, has gone back to old club Manchester United and taken defender Phil Bardsley on loan, he goes straight into the team and should help tighten up what has been a leaky defence, with the next two games away from home, this has been targeted as a season defining match.
5.5 points Sheffield United -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line.
Good Luck.
We have had crunch time for a lot of teams this week and now it is United's turn, if they are to do anything this season, they had better start with 3 points today, against a PNE side that is poor on the road and were comprehensively outplayed by a decidedly average Ipswich team, last time out, in that game PNE did not have a single attempt on target, save for a very late and dubious penalty. Boss Bryan Robson, has gone back to old club Manchester United and taken defender Phil Bardsley on loan, he goes straight into the team and should help tighten up what has been a leaky defence, with the next two games away from home, this has been targeted as a season defining match.
5.5 points Sheffield United -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line.
Good Luck.
SCOTTISH LEAGUE 1 ....
ST JOHNSTONE - QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
Saints are finally getting their act together and living up to the pre season hype. They have won 4 in a row and are scoring for fun, with 15 goals in the last five matches. With another improving team Dunfermline, hosting leaders league leaders Hamilton, this is a real chance for the hosts to close in on the top. In Kenny Deuchar and Andy Jackson they have two strikers at the very top of their game, with 13 goals between them in 7 starts. The youthful Jackson signed a contract extension this week, which, with several clubs sniffing around gave a big boost to the team.
Q o/t S have scored only once in 6 visits here, losing 5 with a 17-1 goal difference. They took a defender on loan from Motherwell yesterday and were looking for others, they have one key player out and eight others doubtful for today, most of whom have not trained this week. Strong home win.
6.5 points St Johnstone -1 ball 1.86 asian line.
Saints are finally getting their act together and living up to the pre season hype. They have won 4 in a row and are scoring for fun, with 15 goals in the last five matches. With another improving team Dunfermline, hosting leaders league leaders Hamilton, this is a real chance for the hosts to close in on the top. In Kenny Deuchar and Andy Jackson they have two strikers at the very top of their game, with 13 goals between them in 7 starts. The youthful Jackson signed a contract extension this week, which, with several clubs sniffing around gave a big boost to the team.
Q o/t S have scored only once in 6 visits here, losing 5 with a 17-1 goal difference. They took a defender on loan from Motherwell yesterday and were looking for others, they have one key player out and eight others doubtful for today, most of whom have not trained this week. Strong home win.
6.5 points St Johnstone -1 ball 1.86 asian line.
Good Luck.
FRANCE LIGUE 2 .............
GUEUGNON - DIJON
Dijon's season has gone off the boil after a strong start, but they have stopped the rot with three consecutive draws and importantly, two clean sheets and the break will have done them a lot of good. they are still only six points off third place and could still have a role to play in the promotion race, but they need to start winning.
A trip to Gueugnon need not overly worry them, the hosts have won just once in five home starts, that being their only win of the current campaign.
Dijon have "owned" Gueugnon in recent years and have not even conceded a single goal in six meetings.
5 points Dijon level ball 2.19 asian line.
LIBOURNE - NIORT
I like the home side here, despite the fact that they have only collected one point from a possible 18 ! Three of those matches came against top 4 sides, including Troyes and Nantes, probably the best two teams in Ligue 2. Defensively they are in a mess, but will no doubt have been working hard to correct those deficiencies, during the international break. Goals at the other end of the pitch have not been a problem, 7 in their last 5, including 2 against Nantes, one of only two teams to score twice verses the league leaders.
Niort are also having a tough time, they have not won in 5 and amazingly, have lost 4 from 5 on home soil, this after losing just once in two seasons at their (former) fortress. This has really knocked them for six and they are playing without confidence. Libourne do not want to be cast any further adrift at the foot of the table and have targeted this as a must win fixture, they might just be meeting the right opponent, at the right time. They can take heart from winning two of the last three h2h meetings.
5 points Libourne -1/4 ball 2.11 asian line.
Dijon's season has gone off the boil after a strong start, but they have stopped the rot with three consecutive draws and importantly, two clean sheets and the break will have done them a lot of good. they are still only six points off third place and could still have a role to play in the promotion race, but they need to start winning.
A trip to Gueugnon need not overly worry them, the hosts have won just once in five home starts, that being their only win of the current campaign.
Dijon have "owned" Gueugnon in recent years and have not even conceded a single goal in six meetings.
5 points Dijon level ball 2.19 asian line.
LIBOURNE - NIORT
I like the home side here, despite the fact that they have only collected one point from a possible 18 ! Three of those matches came against top 4 sides, including Troyes and Nantes, probably the best two teams in Ligue 2. Defensively they are in a mess, but will no doubt have been working hard to correct those deficiencies, during the international break. Goals at the other end of the pitch have not been a problem, 7 in their last 5, including 2 against Nantes, one of only two teams to score twice verses the league leaders.
Niort are also having a tough time, they have not won in 5 and amazingly, have lost 4 from 5 on home soil, this after losing just once in two seasons at their (former) fortress. This has really knocked them for six and they are playing without confidence. Libourne do not want to be cast any further adrift at the foot of the table and have targeted this as a must win fixture, they might just be meeting the right opponent, at the right time. They can take heart from winning two of the last three h2h meetings.
5 points Libourne -1/4 ball 2.11 asian line.
Good Luck.
** private message ** Henry C , if you see this, I have sent you 7 emails in the last 24 hours and you appear not to have received any of them, think the problem is at your end .
Thursday, October 18, 2007
ATP TOUR ... MADRID MASTERS ....
RAFAEL NADAL - ANDY MURRAY
I am siding with Murray, alongside a "saver" on him to take a set. He is playing well and hungry to make the end of season tournament in Shanghai. Stating that his win over Stepanek was "one of the best matches he has ever played on tour", his return of serve was fantastic that day and he played to a similar level, for much of yesterday.
Rafa has just returned from a lay off and this will be only his second start in 6 weeks, following a knee injury. The two have met just once before, at the turn of the year in the Australian Open, the Spanish superstar won in 5 sets, Murray had the greater number of break points, but Nadal served the big points better. The Scot has won a lot of first serve points this week, that may just make the difference this time round.
The courts will get faster day by day here and the ball zips a little through the air at the 600m altitude, which should help my selection, I expect this to be close.
1.5 Nadal to win 2-1 sets 4.05 Pinnacle// Exchanges.
4.5 points Murray to win 2.52 Exchanges.
I am siding with Murray, alongside a "saver" on him to take a set. He is playing well and hungry to make the end of season tournament in Shanghai. Stating that his win over Stepanek was "one of the best matches he has ever played on tour", his return of serve was fantastic that day and he played to a similar level, for much of yesterday.
Rafa has just returned from a lay off and this will be only his second start in 6 weeks, following a knee injury. The two have met just once before, at the turn of the year in the Australian Open, the Spanish superstar won in 5 sets, Murray had the greater number of break points, but Nadal served the big points better. The Scot has won a lot of first serve points this week, that may just make the difference this time round.
The courts will get faster day by day here and the ball zips a little through the air at the 600m altitude, which should help my selection, I expect this to be close.
1.5 Nadal to win 2-1 sets 4.05 Pinnacle// Exchanges.
4.5 points Murray to win 2.52 Exchanges.
Good Luck.
BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP .......
STEVENAGE BOROUGH- BURTON ALBION
Hosts have lost their coach, who resigned yesterday, he has been relentlessly pursued by Gillingham in recent weeks and will, no doubt, be joining them shortly. This has obviously been on everyone's mind at Boro and has affected recent performances, it may take a little longer for them to shake off the air of disappointment over the club. Defensively they have been poor, conceding 12 in 6, with only one clean sheet.
Burton have performed well against all the better teams in the division and have a real chance of promotion this time round. They produced their best display of the season in the 2-0 win over Aldershot at the weekend and were superb in the first half, playing almost "perfect football".
A tough week for Stevenage both on and off the field, will not have been made any easier by 12 hours on a coach to deepest Devon on Sunday and a days less rest. Albion are unbeaten away from home and in 13 starts, it will take an improved performance from Stevenage to end those records.
5 points Burton +1/4 ball 1.90 asian line.
Hosts have lost their coach, who resigned yesterday, he has been relentlessly pursued by Gillingham in recent weeks and will, no doubt, be joining them shortly. This has obviously been on everyone's mind at Boro and has affected recent performances, it may take a little longer for them to shake off the air of disappointment over the club. Defensively they have been poor, conceding 12 in 6, with only one clean sheet.
Burton have performed well against all the better teams in the division and have a real chance of promotion this time round. They produced their best display of the season in the 2-0 win over Aldershot at the weekend and were superb in the first half, playing almost "perfect football".
A tough week for Stevenage both on and off the field, will not have been made any easier by 12 hours on a coach to deepest Devon on Sunday and a days less rest. Albion are unbeaten away from home and in 13 starts, it will take an improved performance from Stevenage to end those records.
5 points Burton +1/4 ball 1.90 asian line.
Good Luck.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
EURO 2008 QUALIFIERS ....
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA - NORWAY
Another host country where all is not well, many of the senior, better and more experienced players have fallen out with the FA and will not play again for the national team . They did put in an improved showing at Greece on Saturday, but had to battle hard, play 30 minutes + with 10 men and are now claiming to be tired. Rahimic and Hrgovic, two key players are suspended today and this team is a far cry from the side that looked so promising a few years ago. Despite these problems, the coach has named an offensive looking line up and they are likely to play 4-3-3, with their defensive frailities, I feel that this will give Norway a lot of scoring opportunities.
Norway are without Carew, but have an able replacement in the in form Thorstein Helsted, who is Tippeligaen's top scorer, with 18 goals. There is an argument to be made for them settling on the draw, but I do not see this being that type of game at all.
4.5 points Norway -1/2 ball 2.075 asian line.
ALBANIA - BULGARIA
Despite some brave words from the Bulgarians, there is no doubt that they are devastated by the Romanian win over the Netherlands, which meant, a major shock aside, they look unlikely to qualify for the finals. That is not to say that they will not give it their best, but it make take a while, for them to shake the disappointment from their legs.
Albania is not an easy place to go and even score let alone win and when they do concede, it is normally late in the game. Therefore , I am going to suggest that we take a little on the half time stalemate. In their last 12 home qualification games, the hosts have gone in level at the break in eight. During this campaign, the home games against Romania, Slovenia and Netherlands were all 0-0 at the half, in fact, it took the Dutch until the 91st minute to score. I expect the water tight Albania defence to hold out for 45 minutes and the match to open up in the second half.
5 points Half time draw 2.20 general.
Another host country where all is not well, many of the senior, better and more experienced players have fallen out with the FA and will not play again for the national team . They did put in an improved showing at Greece on Saturday, but had to battle hard, play 30 minutes + with 10 men and are now claiming to be tired. Rahimic and Hrgovic, two key players are suspended today and this team is a far cry from the side that looked so promising a few years ago. Despite these problems, the coach has named an offensive looking line up and they are likely to play 4-3-3, with their defensive frailities, I feel that this will give Norway a lot of scoring opportunities.
Norway are without Carew, but have an able replacement in the in form Thorstein Helsted, who is Tippeligaen's top scorer, with 18 goals. There is an argument to be made for them settling on the draw, but I do not see this being that type of game at all.
4.5 points Norway -1/2 ball 2.075 asian line.
ALBANIA - BULGARIA
Despite some brave words from the Bulgarians, there is no doubt that they are devastated by the Romanian win over the Netherlands, which meant, a major shock aside, they look unlikely to qualify for the finals. That is not to say that they will not give it their best, but it make take a while, for them to shake the disappointment from their legs.
Albania is not an easy place to go and even score let alone win and when they do concede, it is normally late in the game. Therefore , I am going to suggest that we take a little on the half time stalemate. In their last 12 home qualification games, the hosts have gone in level at the break in eight. During this campaign, the home games against Romania, Slovenia and Netherlands were all 0-0 at the half, in fact, it took the Dutch until the 91st minute to score. I expect the water tight Albania defence to hold out for 45 minutes and the match to open up in the second half.
5 points Half time draw 2.20 general.
My third selection of the day has already come in for significant support and shortened by a full 1/4 ball on the asian line.
Good Luck.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON .........
I previewed four matches on the email today, one for later in the week.
Definitely going to put something on the blog and will probably do it at half time during the Russia-England game, which, really ought to be shown live on the BBC .
Back later.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
TUESDAY ROUND UP .......
Here are today's three email selections, with the previews removed .....
U21 EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFICATION
IRELAND-ENGLAND
5 points England -1/2 ball 1.82 general quote. WON 3-0 all goals coming in the first 26 minutes
BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP
HALIFAX TOWN - GRAYS ATHLETIC
5 points Grays +1/2 ball 1.94 asian line. result 0-0 WINNER
SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
ORGRYTE-NORRKOPING
6 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.71 general OR "over" 2.75 goals 1.87 asian line. WINNER match was "over" inside 16 minutes !
That was another 13+ point profit on the day for subscribers, places at the standard rates are running out, if you are seriously considering joining, you should do so quickly. Details can be found on this link.
Good Luck.
U21 EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFICATION
IRELAND-ENGLAND
5 points England -1/2 ball 1.82 general quote. WON 3-0 all goals coming in the first 26 minutes
BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP
HALIFAX TOWN - GRAYS ATHLETIC
5 points Grays +1/2 ball 1.94 asian line. result 0-0 WINNER
SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
ORGRYTE-NORRKOPING
6 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.71 general OR "over" 2.75 goals 1.87 asian line. WINNER match was "over" inside 16 minutes !
That was another 13+ point profit on the day for subscribers, places at the standard rates are running out, if you are seriously considering joining, you should do so quickly. Details can be found on this link.
Good Luck.
UPDATE ....
Sorry, I will have to keep today's previews solely to subscribers. Hopefully, it will be possible to post something on the blog tomorrow.
Good Luck.
Good Luck.
TUESDAY PLANS ....
Luton ran out easy winners in the end last night, that's 11 from 13 on the blog, since last Monday.
I have previewed three matches on the email service today and am very happy with all of those selections, if possible, one will be posted here late afternoon.
Good Luck.
I have previewed three matches on the email service today and am very happy with all of those selections, if possible, one will be posted here late afternoon.
Good Luck.
Monday, October 15, 2007
LEAGUE 1 ...
LUTON TOWN - NORTHAMPTON TOWN
Hosts are almost certainly better, than their league position tells us, the problem is that the players seem to believe that too and have been going onto the pitch, simply expecting to collect three points, without fighting for them. This was well illustrated in the cup tie at Gillingham last midweek, they breezed into a 3-1 half time lead and then sat back and allowed the home side to walk all over them.
Luton boss Kevin Blackwell, went beserk, he has told the entire squad that nobody's place is safe and that 5-6 of them, without naming names, will be on the way out of the club. Like Doncaster yesterday, this is a game that is likely to define Luton's season, a win and a playoff spot is still possible. These two met in the JPT last month and the hosts ran out comfortable 2-0 winners, restricting the visitors to few clear cut chances. Blackwell knows that Northampton score a lot of goals from set pieces and has again, been working hard to combat this in training. Think we might see a much improved display from Luton this evening and even the bigtime charlies on show, will probably be motivated by the television cameras.
5 points Luton -1/2 ball 2.135 asian line.
Hosts are almost certainly better, than their league position tells us, the problem is that the players seem to believe that too and have been going onto the pitch, simply expecting to collect three points, without fighting for them. This was well illustrated in the cup tie at Gillingham last midweek, they breezed into a 3-1 half time lead and then sat back and allowed the home side to walk all over them.
Luton boss Kevin Blackwell, went beserk, he has told the entire squad that nobody's place is safe and that 5-6 of them, without naming names, will be on the way out of the club. Like Doncaster yesterday, this is a game that is likely to define Luton's season, a win and a playoff spot is still possible. These two met in the JPT last month and the hosts ran out comfortable 2-0 winners, restricting the visitors to few clear cut chances. Blackwell knows that Northampton score a lot of goals from set pieces and has again, been working hard to combat this in training. Think we might see a much improved display from Luton this evening and even the bigtime charlies on show, will probably be motivated by the television cameras.
5 points Luton -1/2 ball 2.135 asian line.
Good Luck.
MONDAY PLANS AND WEEKLY REVIEW .....
Both blog selections won yesterday, which made it 10 from 12 for the week, a 83.33% strike rate. I think we were a little unlucky not to register a clean sweep, Bradford were mugged at Morecambe on Friday and Stenson was the only golfer this week to trouble Els and was not behind until over six hours into their match !
However, I am sure that we can find better things to gripe about. Email subscribers were sent four previews today and I will try to put something from those on the blog later.
Several of you have written recently, saying that you would like to subscribe to the email service , but thought that their lowish stakes, could not justify it. Well, the blog alone made close to 40 points profit last week, a 2 euro unit stake would have paid for the service for one month, a $6 unit for three months and a £6 stake for six months ! A three month subscription costs less than £1-50 per day, further details can be found here , or you can email me with any questions.
Good Luck.
However, I am sure that we can find better things to gripe about. Email subscribers were sent four previews today and I will try to put something from those on the blog later.
Several of you have written recently, saying that you would like to subscribe to the email service , but thought that their lowish stakes, could not justify it. Well, the blog alone made close to 40 points profit last week, a 2 euro unit stake would have paid for the service for one month, a $6 unit for three months and a £6 stake for six months ! A three month subscription costs less than £1-50 per day, further details can be found here , or you can email me with any questions.
Good Luck.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
DOMESTIC FOOTBALL ........
DONCASTER ROVERS - HUDDERSFIELD TOWN
Massive game for Rovers. They have been big spenders in this league, at least in the salary stakes and have on paper, a fine squad. Unlucky with both injuries and the run of the ball, but those excuses only go so far and today, is very much, make or break for them. Failure to win will leave them too many points behind, too many good teams , even at this earlystage of the season. They have 3 of their next 4 away from the Keepmoat Stadium, starting with a daunting trip to inform Nottingham Forest. Donny are boosted by the return of Paul Heffernan, who can start alongside James Hayter, this combination is capable of terrorizing League 1 defences.
This is something of a transistion year for the visitors and they have been finding goals very hard to come by. They have lost the last two to Rovers and I expect them to complete an unwanted hat-trick, against a motivated host.
5 points Doncaster -1/2 ball 1.91 general quote.
DIVISION 2
MK DONS - LINCOLN CITY
Dons are another of my favourites and are looking for a 7th straight league win, their 8th in all competitions. They have been very potent at home, averaging 2.25 goals per start. As we discused in midweek, Lincoln are in dire form and conceded another 5 goals against Hartlepool. I expect an improved performance from them today, infront of the TV cameras, but doubt it will be enough.
I love a report of MK from a recent opponents site, which, in a nutshell said, that they are Leon Knight and ten giants, who just come at you in wave after wave. You cannot take a breather by putting the ball out for a throw in , as Jude Sterling lauches it into your area, like it was fired from a cannon, from anywhere inside your own half. This is true, MKD are an extremely tall, fit athletic team, who never give you a moments rest and they can secure a 4 points lead at the top of League 2 with a win today.
Despite this being shown live on television, the hosts have sold a huge number of tickets and are motivated to put on a show, in the first ever televised game from StadiumMK.
5.5 points MK Dons -1 ball 1.87 asian line.... now 1.74
Good Luck.
Massive game for Rovers. They have been big spenders in this league, at least in the salary stakes and have on paper, a fine squad. Unlucky with both injuries and the run of the ball, but those excuses only go so far and today, is very much, make or break for them. Failure to win will leave them too many points behind, too many good teams , even at this earlystage of the season. They have 3 of their next 4 away from the Keepmoat Stadium, starting with a daunting trip to inform Nottingham Forest. Donny are boosted by the return of Paul Heffernan, who can start alongside James Hayter, this combination is capable of terrorizing League 1 defences.
This is something of a transistion year for the visitors and they have been finding goals very hard to come by. They have lost the last two to Rovers and I expect them to complete an unwanted hat-trick, against a motivated host.
5 points Doncaster -1/2 ball 1.91 general quote.
DIVISION 2
MK DONS - LINCOLN CITY
Dons are another of my favourites and are looking for a 7th straight league win, their 8th in all competitions. They have been very potent at home, averaging 2.25 goals per start. As we discused in midweek, Lincoln are in dire form and conceded another 5 goals against Hartlepool. I expect an improved performance from them today, infront of the TV cameras, but doubt it will be enough.
I love a report of MK from a recent opponents site, which, in a nutshell said, that they are Leon Knight and ten giants, who just come at you in wave after wave. You cannot take a breather by putting the ball out for a throw in , as Jude Sterling lauches it into your area, like it was fired from a cannon, from anywhere inside your own half. This is true, MKD are an extremely tall, fit athletic team, who never give you a moments rest and they can secure a 4 points lead at the top of League 2 with a win today.
Despite this being shown live on television, the hosts have sold a huge number of tickets and are motivated to put on a show, in the first ever televised game from StadiumMK.
5.5 points MK Dons -1 ball 1.87 asian line.... now 1.74
Good Luck.
A GOOD SUNDAY MORNING !
All three football bets on the blog obliged. That makes 8 from 10 winning selections in this week alone, even the non mathematicians amongst us, can make that an 80% strike rate.
That was the icing on the cake for a great 24 hours of sport, England and Scotland completed emphatic wins in Euro 2008 qualification, England saw off France in their own backyard, in an exciting, if not free flowing, Rugby World Cup semi final and Brentford stopped the rot with a point, over mighty Rotherham ! It's all gravy !
I am still fine tuning today's newsletter, but it is looking like 5 previews, all football, with three very confident selections, will try to put what I can on the blog through the day, so make sure that you check back. Very likely to also cover the NFL, where I have an almost 70% success rate.
If you do not want to wait for the selections and to receive all the GOWI offerings each and every day, I am still going to accept another 22 subscribers at the current rates. The newsletter will then be delivered every morning to your computer, for less than the price many of you will have paid for your sunday newspaper, further details can be found here.
Good Luck.
That was the icing on the cake for a great 24 hours of sport, England and Scotland completed emphatic wins in Euro 2008 qualification, England saw off France in their own backyard, in an exciting, if not free flowing, Rugby World Cup semi final and Brentford stopped the rot with a point, over mighty Rotherham ! It's all gravy !
I am still fine tuning today's newsletter, but it is looking like 5 previews, all football, with three very confident selections, will try to put what I can on the blog through the day, so make sure that you check back. Very likely to also cover the NFL, where I have an almost 70% success rate.
If you do not want to wait for the selections and to receive all the GOWI offerings each and every day, I am still going to accept another 22 subscribers at the current rates. The newsletter will then be delivered every morning to your computer, for less than the price many of you will have paid for your sunday newspaper, further details can be found here.
Good Luck.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
US SOCCER .... needs and wants !
LA GALAXY - TORONTO
I sent this on the email service a few days ago and the odds have not held up too badly, there is still some 1.57 around and although that will not make any of us rich, unless we already are, little fish are sweet.
Galaxy are the biggest club in the MLS, or at least the highest profile team, thanks to you know who. They need to make the playoffs and to be honest the playoffs and the MLS need them just as much, maybe even more ! However, that seemed highly unlikely even two weeks ago, when LA's only real chance to play some post season football, was by winning their last 7 fixtures.
They have now won four in a row and you just get the feeling that they will get there by hook or by crook and I certainly do not see, Toronto, the worst away team in the MLS, with a 1-4-9 record, upsetting things. One thing is for sure, these odds are very unlikely to see the day out. Everyone, despite what they might say, wants LAG at the show.
The team spirit is very good at Galaxy now and there is much talk of 2005, when they scrapped into the final playoff place and took the Championship. Toronto are missing three players away on International duty.
6.5 points LA Galaxy -1/2 ball 1.62 Stan James/ Skybet 1.60 Expekt... you might find something similar in early trading on the exchanges.
6.5 points LA Galaxy -1/2 ball 1.62 Stan James/ Skybet 1.60 Expekt... you might find something similar in early trading on the exchanges.
Good Luck.
EURO 2008 ....
ROMANIA - HOLLAND
Think that this will be a very tight affair, the two played out a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture and that would certainly suit the visitors. Both sides have injury problems and the hosts have named a defensive looking line up. That is not to say that they will not try to win at some stage, with a trip to Bulgaria to come, they could really do with maximum points here. But they will not throw caution to the wind and will probably be happy to keep things quiet early. The half time stalemate looks very likely and I feel that the odds are more than fair.
5 points half time draw 2.10 ladbrokes/vc bet/ corals/ exchanges.
Think that this will be a very tight affair, the two played out a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture and that would certainly suit the visitors. Both sides have injury problems and the hosts have named a defensive looking line up. That is not to say that they will not try to win at some stage, with a trip to Bulgaria to come, they could really do with maximum points here. But they will not throw caution to the wind and will probably be happy to keep things quiet early. The half time stalemate looks very likely and I feel that the odds are more than fair.
5 points half time draw 2.10 ladbrokes/vc bet/ corals/ exchanges.
Good Luck.
DOMESTIC FOOTBALL ..........
ENGLAND LEAGUE 1
SOUTHEND -CREWE
Hosts have no injury concerns and a fully fit squad to choose from, they have lost only to leaders Tranmere in 6 starts and meet a Crewe side in poor form. The visitors have won just once in ten matches and are creating very little, a league low total of just 71 attempts, with only 26 on target. Hosts have over double that number and really should win this comfortably.
5 points Southend -3/4 ball 1.85 asian line....
SOUTHEND -CREWE
Hosts have no injury concerns and a fully fit squad to choose from, they have lost only to leaders Tranmere in 6 starts and meet a Crewe side in poor form. The visitors have won just once in ten matches and are creating very little, a league low total of just 71 attempts, with only 26 on target. Hosts have over double that number and really should win this comfortably.
5 points Southend -3/4 ball 1.85 asian line....
Back later.
SATURDAY PLANS ......
I have written previews of six football matches taking place today and will post a couple of them on the blog, starting in an hour or so .
Several of you have emailed me about the golf, scores are updated hole by hole on this link ...
http://scores.europeantour.com/default.sps?pageid=&pagegid={F7D5F510-8449-4E4C-A791-3C92FE9C303F}&eventid=2007086
Back later.
Several of you have emailed me about the golf, scores are updated hole by hole on this link ...
http://scores.europeantour.com/default.sps?pageid=&pagegid={F7D5F510-8449-4E4C-A791-3C92FE9C303F}&eventid=2007086
Back later.
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