NFL ....... WEEK 13

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - TAMBA BAY BUCCANEERS

Saints must win this game to keep the dream of a Superbowl return alive. It will be pretty much season over, should they lose.

They will take great heart from the 31-6 thumping they gave Carolina last week and perhaps, even greater encouragement from the 23 first downs and 412 yards of offense that Washington posted against TB. Amazingly, Tampa's defense found a way to win them that game, by forcing the Redskins into six turnovers.

Buc's quarterback Jeff Garcia left that game very early and his participation this evening, will be the subject of a gametime decision. They really struggled without him and totalled just 9 first downs, less than 200 yards of offense and completed just 1 of 12, 3rd down attempts.

The Vegas line moved a half point, which around the 3 point line is significant, suggesting that he might not play. Even if he does, it seems fair to assume that he will be less than 100% fit.

I am siding with New Orleans and will post my bet at the current Vegas line of 3.5 points, however, if you can back them at lower odds, just giving up the bare 3 points , that is a far better option. This is still possible with a number of european based bookmakers.

5 points New Orleans -3.5 points 2.01 Pinnacle/ Vegas.

Good Luck.

GERMANY BUNDESLIGA ............

ARMENIA BIELEFELD - BAYERN MUNICH

Bayern seem to have been going through the motions a bit recently and that has got to stop. They now know that Bremen are going to fight them for the Championship, a title that looked theirs for the taking a few weeks ago. Three points are required to take them back to the head of the Bundesliga and at a venue where they have struggled a little in recent years, I think that we will see the real Bayern today. They will only be without Lucio and Jansen and some key, experienced players, will return today. Their very potent strike force will be looking to "fill their boots" against a home team which has conceded 25 goals in just 10 starts, losing 6 of them and has failed to score in 6 of their last 9. I fully expect a big away win this afternoon.

6 points Bayern -1 ball 1.72 asian line.

Good Luck.

THE MAGIC OF THE CUP .............

HARROGATE RAILWAY- MANSFIELD

I am not putting up a selection here, as there are many ways you can approach the match, but I definitely think that you should be getting involved. This is live on television , so there will be plenty of "in running" opportunities. I do feel that the league side might be too strong eventually, but it could take some time. This is why..... the pitch is in a terrible condition, along with a very noticeable slope from side to side and the weather conditions in the UK are dire, with rain and high winds and the forecast for Harrogate at kick off , is very poor. This will be a great leveller, I am considering taking the hosts +3/4 ball @ circa 2.0 and trading out in running , or a lay of the visitors on the exchanges and doing likewise. The half time draw and / or unders , are also alternatives, like I say, there are any number of ways to approach the match.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY PLANS ......

I have quite a bit to pass on today and will be covering football and the NFL on the blog.

Just saw the Euro 2008 draw ..... Holland, Italy, France and Romania all in the same group, now that is what you call "the group of death"..... a chance for Romania to prove how good they are.

Back later.

LEAGUE 2 ...............

ROCHDALE - WREXHAM

Visitors have improved a little under their new coach and I do expect them to be too good to go down, but they can climb off the foot of the table, a little later in the season. Rochdale are a team that regular readers will know that I like, if they win their two games in hand, they will be just a point or so outside the playoff places and that is about where I rank them, definitely top ten.

They have a fully fit squad and the benefits of that were clear to see last week, when the 1-0 scoreline win over Mansfield didn't really tell the full story. They dominated play and created 17 attempts on goal, 9 on target. It has been a similar tale for several matches, Dale play good football and keep the ball for long periods and are averaging 9 attempts on target, which is a big number, over the last 6 starts, including in a trip to Division 1 highflyers Southend. I think that they will have too much class for Wrexham.

6 points Rochdale -1/2 ball 1.90 asian line.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP ....

COVENTRY CITY - SHEFFIELD UNITED

City are at a low ebb. They are almost £40m in debt, a proposed takeover looks set to collapse, they face a 10 points deduction and boss Iain Dowie is threatening to walk out.

If that is not enough, they are in poor form, the goals have dried up, just 8 in 10 games, 4 of them coming from Mifsud, who is suspended today and another from Jay Tabb, who is very doubtful today. They will miss the two pocket dynamos and it is hard to see where the next goal is coming from.

United have trouble stringing two wins together, a good performance is normally followed by an inept one, but the big win at Charlton shows what they are capable of and their squad should be competing at the top of the Championship.

5 points Sheff Utd -1/4 ball 2.25 asian line.

The photograph is of Jay Tabb when he played for a club that is only £10m in debt.... happy days !

Back Later.

PREMIERSHIP .............

WIGAN - MANCHESTER CITY

Are things finally turning Wigan's way ? Steve Bruce has his feet under the table , Emile Heskey returns and they have very few injury concerns. In addition, they might just be meeting their near neighbours at the right time, as they will be without several players, including Elano, the heart of the team. Wigan have a great record against City, winning the last 4 and have not conceded in the last two. Sven's team home (100%) and away (just one win on day 1), are two very different sides and Bruce might just get a dream start.

5 points Wigan +1/4 ball 1.80 asian line.

Back shortly.

SATURDAY PLANS ......

I am still not sure how Swansea failed to win comfortably last night, the combination of the woodwork and an inspired display by the Horsham keeper, mean a replay, which the League 1 leaders could really do without.

On to today, I have previewed five matches on the email service and also detailed 4 others that I found interesting. Will try to post what I can on the blog, starting in an hour or so, please check back.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ....

ENGLAND ... FA CUP
HORSHAM - SWANSEA CITY

OK, this is the FA Cup and anything can happen and often does, but not tonight ! There is a MASSIVE class difference, some 100 league places between the two sides and next season , there could be at least 5 divisions gap.

Both sides have goalkeeping problems, but Horsham's is particularly bad, with a third choice keeper likely to be between the sticks in the biggest match in the club's history. Swansea's number one, has been passed fit in the last hour to take part, which is a huge relief to Roberto Martinez.

Swansea are top of League 2 and on a fantastic run, with just one defeat in 13, that coming against an inform team, on a day when nothing went right for the Welsh club. They are happy on the road and no side in England ( or Scotland) has won more more games, or scored more goals away from home. Therefore, even a trip into the unknown, which this undoubtedly is, should hold very little fear.

6.5 points Swansea -1.25 goals 1.89 asian line.... now 1.85

FRANCE ... LIGUE 2
CHATEAUROUX- BASTIA SC

I like the "over" here, Bastia are in fine form and are really going for it on the road, their away games have produced a league high 28 goals and their last 5 starts have all contained two or more. They have scored 12 in their last 5 and conceded in each of the last 4. The hosts will have to look for maximum points also, to avoid dropping into real relegation trouble, 4 of their last 5 have produced two or more goals. H2h wise the last 3 have been "over", with a 3.67 average.

6 points "over" 2 goals 1.72 asian line.... now 1.68

Good Luck.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE ....

I put just two matches on the email servicetoday and providing the odds hold up reasonably well, will post both on the blog later this afternoon.

Please check back.

TONIGHT'S FOOTBALL .......

ENGLAND PREMIERSHIP
BLACKBURN ROVERS - ASTON VILLA

Rovers are an impressive outfit and Mark Hughes has done a fantastic job. Lesser sides would have wilted after losing McCarthy so early on Sunday and failing behind twice, especially with Santa Cruz already out, but they showed fantastic spirit and could easily have taken all three points in the end. Both strikers look set to be available tonight , along with David Dunn. Villa seem to struggle against the better teams and I definitely put Blackburn in that category and only the best of the best , have troubled the hosts this season.

5.5 points Blackburn -1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.

ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS - COLCHESTER UNITED

Wolves are playing well at present, but are still finding goals hard to come by. However, they now have a run of 3 home games in 4, which could leave them pressing the top two, with a good run. They should be confident of scoring this evening, the visitors have collected just 3 points from a possible 18 and are without a clean sheet in 14 starts, infact, they have just one in 26 matches ! It is widely reported that the hosts have three key injuries, it is my understanding that at least two and quite possibly all three will be available. 1-0 home win.

5.5 points Wolves -1/2 ball 1.67 general.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY MORNING .....

Another excellent day yesterday, in addition to the two selections posted on the blog, there were two email exclusives which both won. Which means that subscribers are already well over 20 points up on the week and we are only two days in ! Five bets, four winners and one returned stake.

I have previewed four matches today on the email service and will try to post some of those on the blog this afternoon.

Please check back.

FA CUP REPLAY .....

BRENTFORD - LUTON TOWN

Here we have two teams with massive problems off the pitch, unfortunately, Brentford have carried theirs onto the field and were dire, as you might expect, in the 7-0 (!) defeat at Peterborough on Saturday. OK, they were reduced to 10 men and a goal down, inside the first minute, but it was the lack of effort and fight, that left Bees supporters so angry. They were forced to play a very young goalkeeper at the weekend and that would have done his confidence no good at all. Two of the other culprits are unavailable this evening ( maybe they are in hiding)and an already small, young and stretched squad, is going to be severley tested by a Luton side which is at least a division better than even a fit , confident Bees team, which the current squad is plainly not.

There are very likely to be demonstrations against the board and manager tonight and if/when they go a goal down, things could get very ugly at Griffin Park. The stadium where I spent most of my youth, has turned into the Theatre of Nightmares, Brentford fans do not expect much, but lack of effort is unacceptable and we have seen two seasons of that !

6 points Luton level ball 1.70 asian line..... now -1/4 ball 1.89.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ... Matchday 5

LYON - BARCELONA

Defeat for Lyon will leave them on the verge of elimination from the competition, this is a match they simply cannot afford to lose. A point will at least leave matters in their own hands, when they travel to Rangers on Matchday 6, a win would be fantastic,especially if the Scottish giants fail to win in Stuttgart. They will be boosted by the return of Fabio Santos and Cleber Anderson, but Milan Baros remains on the sidelines.

Barclelona do not need a result tonight, they can take care of business in their final home group match and have the derby with Espanol at the weekend, a match with added spice this year, as their "little" neighbours are currently just one place and two points behind them in La Liga. The Catalan side travel without Henry and Oleguer, but Thuram and an out of sorts Ronaldinho return, Puyol is not 100% fit, yet may start. I feel that Lyon will not lose this game and are back to something approaching their best, Barce seem some way off their wonderful top form.

Barcelona squad:
Valdés, Jorquera, Márquez, Puyol, Sylvinho, Milito, Abidal, Thuram, Zambrotta, Touré, Gudjohnsen, Iniesta, Xavi, Marc Crosas, Ezquerro, Bojan, Ronaldinho and Messi.

The OL squad: Vercoutre, Roux - Clerc, C. Anderson, Réveillère, Paillot, Squillaci, Grosso, Belhadj, Bodmer - Toulalan, Källström, Fabio Santos, Juninho, Govou, Ben Arfa, Keita - Benzema, Rémy, Fred.

5 points Lyon level ball 1.84 asian line.... ( given on email @1.93)

Good Luck.

MONDAY UPDATE .....

Following on from the Empoli draw yesterday, I had just one selection for email subscribers today ..........

ENGLAND ....CHAMPIONSHIP
LEICESTER CITY - CARDIFF CITY

Both of these two got excellent results at the weekend and will want to build on them, especially the hosts, who will be playing their first home game under new coach Ian Holloway. The match is a virtual sell out, the supporters are turning out in force to welcome their third manager of the season !

I can see plenty of value in the draw, which is a result both clubs could probably live with.

Leicester already have 8 draws in 16 starts to their name and have a striker crisis at the club this evening, with almost every marksman on the books, either unavailable, or carrying an injury. They are tight defensively though and have conceded only 6 home goals, easily the lowest total in the bottom half of the table.

The visitors have drawn 3 of their 7 away and two of their last three visits here. They will also have benefitted from a little extra rest, having played in a lunchtime kick off on Saturday, that might not normally mean so much, but with this game coming so quickly afterwards, it could prove key. All things considered, if pressed, I would side with Cardiff plus the handicap, but feel the straight draw, offers a little more value.

4 points draw 3.45 exchanges. RESULT 0-0

The email service continues to offer fantastic value for money. I will be previewing 5 or 6 matches tomorrow and will cover one or two on the blog.

Good Luck.

ITALY .... SERIE A

CAGLIARI - MILAN

Despite their fantastic away form, with 15 goals in 5 matches, Milan have looked decidedly average at times this year and some of their players may be feeling the effects of the international break and all the travelling that involves. Kaka for example, was playing for Brazil very late on Wednesday night. Cagliari have their first game for new, returning coach Sonetti and are never easy to beat on home soil. He has a full squad to choose from, there will be no away fans in the stadium and Milan will have one eye on their midweek trip to Benfica in the Champions League.

6 points Cagliari +1 goal 1.80 asian line.

EMPOLI - TORINO

Torino are the draw specialists in Serie A, with 4 from 6 on the road and 7 from 12 overall, ending all square. Empoli's have drawn 40% of their home starts and with 3 starters out, may be prepared to take the single point, which could take them out of the bottom 3. Incredibly, they are bottom, but, along with the 4 clubs immediately above them, have 9 points, so one more could take them a long way ! H2h favours the selection with 3 from 4 here and 5 from 9 home and away, ending level.

4 points draw 2.90 general quote.

Good Luck.

TODAY'S EMAIL SELECTIONS .....

..... with some basic reasons

CHAMPIONSHIP
CARDIFF CITY -IPSWICH TOWN

City have played well this season, but not really got the results that their play has deserved. For the first time they have an almost fully fit squad to choose from and just need a little more luck in front of goal. Only WBA and Charlton have created more chances and they meet a Town side that is unbeatable at home, but still looking for an away win on the road, where they have been very leaky, only one team has conceded more and 2.25 goals per game on average, is a lot to overcome.

6 points Cardiff level ball 1.77

SHEFFIELD UNITED- PLYMOUTH ARGYLE

United seem to have turned the corner and are unbeaten in six games, a win will take them onto the edge of the playoff zone and most likely above the visitors who currently sit in 7th spot.Argyle have been left totally devastated by the loss of manager Ian Holloway, it is hard to over estimate the influence he had at the club and they are in something like mourning. They will also be without key central defender Timar, who is suspended and following the recent departure of their star player to QPR, this looks a team to solidly oppose in the coming weeks.

6 points Sheff Utd -1/2 ball 1.80 general.

LEAGUE 1
BRIGHTON - CARLISLE UNITED

You know that I like Brighton at the moment, only Leeds have beaten them in 13 starts and they are playing really well. For United, the goals have suddenly dried up, just one in 4, three of those games coming against lower league opposition. This is pretty much their longest journey of the year and they are missing midfielder Paul Thirwell.Hosts have goals in them and they can take this.

6 points Brighton -1/4 ball 2.00 asian line.

LEAGUE 2
MACCLESFIELD TOWN - DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

We have gone into D&R's shortcomings recently, they are in poor form , not creating much at all and an already thin squad, is short of players. Town are picking up and have two straight wins, both with clean sheets, which is something that the visitors, having conceded 14 in 6 , can only dream of. Hosts are going to run in a few soon, they have hit the woodwork 11 times this season and sooner or later, that luck will change.

6 points Macclesfield -1/2 ball 1.89 asian line.

LINCOLN CITY - NOTTS COUNTY

This is something of a local derby and a must win game for the hosts, who sit bottom of the football league. It is hard to know what is wrong exactly, they have the sanme core squad of players who made the playoffs last year. However, since new coach Peter jackson joined, they have showed signs of improvement, especially in the 1-1 draw with Division 1 big wigs Nottingham Forest. A win today could easily take them off the foot of the table and against, what is likely to be a main relegation rival, Jackson will have his troops well and truely fired up. They have also not had the rub of the green and hit the woodwork 11 times, it is a fine line between victory and defeat sometimes. This is not a terrible team and if they can get a little confidence, can move on up the division. They are boosted by the return of several players today.

5 points Lincoln level ball 1.75 asian line.

ROCHDALE - MANSFIELD TOWN

Rochdale are an upper mid table team in waiting and have a decent squad of players, which has been added to with the signing of two very promising youngsters this week. Their injury situation, which has been dire, has almost completely cleared and with two games in hand over most of the division, have not yet given up dreams of a playoff spot. They will fancy their chances today, against a Town side with just 3 points (no wins ) from a possible 24 on the road and that has a dismal 0-1-5 record at Rochdale.

6 points Rochdale -1/2 ball 2.00 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY....

You will have seen that there was some excellent additional information in the email service yesterday, it is not always about the basic selections. The only actual selection was also a winner and the two early teams for the weekend, are now trading at lower odds.

I previewed six matches today and am considering putting all selections on the blog, along with basic reasons, in an hour or so. Even if I decide against that, there will be something online then.

Please check back.

WEEKEND PLANS ....

I put selections for three weekend matches on the email service , one today and two "early birds" for tomorrow, where I did not expect the odds to last. Cannot put any of those on the blog just now, but I did write some notes on other action this evening so will pass that on ....

Just a few notes about two other games this evening WATERFORD and FINN HARPS play their second leg, with the visitors holding a 3-0 lead, in the race for a Premiership place. I have no doubt that the visitors, who have forgotten how to lose, are the better side and they will be a division higher next season. Waterford are without Flynn and Bermingham, two key players and will throw caution to the wind, they have no other option, against such a well organised team as FH, that could be suicide. Think the visitors might win again , but can't bring myself to make them a selection as they would be happy to lose by a single goal, or even two I guess.

In Portugal, UNIAO LEIRIA host BRAGA and it is impossible to see many goals, Uniao have scored just 2 in 5 home starts and the visitors just 4 in 5 away. But it is the h2h stats that come screaming off the page, in 7 meetings there have not been more than a single goal, with a grand total of five, or an average of .714 goals per game ! Bet 365 have 2.75 less than two goals and the asian line of 1.80 for under 2.25 goals looks safe, but I do not like unders ! I will leave it up to you.

Busy day tomorrow and I expect to have lots to post.

Good Luck.

THANKSGIVING ....

NFL ... DETROIT LIONS- GREEN BAY PACKERS

I like the hosts, who always host a Thanksgiving fixture, plus the points.The Pack gave up almost 400 yards of offense to a Carolina team without shining star Steve Smith and with 44 year old Vinny Testaverde at the helm. The Lions posted very close to that number against the Giants and with both Green Bay cornerbacks carrying injuries, they should have little trouble moving the ball.

The Packers have an impressive looking 9-1 record, but this is very flattering and they must be one of the worst teams to ever start so well. They have only met one team with a winning record, of course, you can do no more than beat what is put in front of you, but the concerns remain.

The Lions traditionally over perform on this day and with this game far more important to them, they look good to win, or at least keep it close.

5 points Detroit +3.5 points 1.90 general.

Good Luck.

EURO 2008 QUALIFICATION ....

SERBIA - POLAND

Serbia can still qualify, they need to win their last two matches and hope that Finland beat an injury hit Portugal side. A slim, but not impossible chance and they have to, at least, accomplish their part. Poland have travelled without many starters and have been seen out celebrating long and hard, after clinching qualification at the weekend. They have a poor record in these games, under similar circumstances, the hosts should be very much fresher after a free weekend and that could/ should be vital on a very heavy pitch.

5.5 points Serbia -3/4 ball 1.80 asian line.

Good Luck.

INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY ....

AUSTRIA - TUNISIA

Austria are poor, but they are in desperate need of a confidence boosting win and to stop the national unrest, a little like England ! We are about to have the 2008 group draw, where they will be one of the top seeds ! This is only because of there role as co hosts, they would not even be competing otherwise.

They have only one recent win to their name, which also came against African opponents, a lucky 3-2 win over the Ivory Coast, where the officials heavily favoured the home side. Something similar could be on the cards this evening and they could have picked an opponent ,coming solely for a pay day. The temperature is set to be around zero at kick off, which will, obviously, favour the hosts and they simply cannot afford another loss.

5.5 points Austria level ball 1.73 asian line.

Good Luck.

EMAIL SELECTIONS .....

IRISH LEAGUE PLAYOFF
FINN HARPS - WATERFORD UNITED

This, unlike the first playoff match, is being played over two legs and I see a big advantage for the home side. Both of these two have terrible records when it comes to this stage of the season, but on home soil, Finn Harps are very impressive. They are unbeaten in 7 home playoff games and have only conceded in one of those. We discussed them in greater detail on Friday, when they did us a big favour, no injuries were picked up and they come here in fantastic form. Waterford ended the season on an unbeaten run of six games, but continue to find goals hard to come by and did not score in their last two starts. They are without 3 players tonight and have not played in 11 days, which, I believe to be a disadvantage at this stage of the season.

5.5 points Finn Harps -1/2 ball 2.03 asian line..... NOW 1.84

ENGLAND FA CUP REPLAYS
GRIMSBY- CARLISLE

Grimsby are in trouble, they sit one point outside the drop zone, having played two more games than Wrexham, the team immediately below them. They face tough games against Barnet and Darlington up next and will have to get their priorities right. With six players out this evening and a JPT area semi final to look forward too, they have bigger battles to fight.

Carlisle are over 40 places above them in the league, created 15 attempts in the first game, despite being decidedly lack lustre and will be hungry to put things right. They have had a free weekend after their match was cancelled due to international call ups and have few injury concerns.

5.5 points Carlisle -1/4 ball 1.72 asian line..... NOW -1/2 1.95

BRIGHTON- CHELTENHAM

Meeting number 3 between these two and we discussed in detail last Wednesday's match, which the home side won 4-1. That was a little flattering to Brighton to be honest, but like in the first game, they created a lot of chances and with a proven goalscorer like Nicky Forster, who lives and breathes goals, they are always going to get on the scoresheet. They have lost just once in 12 starts, to Leeds United, in a game that Brighton dominated. The visitors have a huge home game with Leeds United on Sunday and with 5 senior places missing this evening, look set to struggle yet again.

5.5 points Brighton -1 ball 2.02 asian line..... NOW 1.82

BRISTOL ROVERS - LEYTON ORIENT

I have been waiting for Rovers, who have some classy players, especially Lambert, to finally win at home, which they did at the weekend. On the road they have been fine and for 20-30 minutes in the first game, were strolling around the Orient team and looked the better side, which I think they might well be, despite their respective league positions. The cup brings out the best in Rovers, as do night games at the Memorial Stadium. I really like them with the level ball option.

6 points Bristol Rovers level ball 1.81 asian line.... NOW 1.74

Good Luck.

Win or lose, the more astute amongst you, will realise what an incredible advantage subscribers are getting over the general betting public.

TUESDAY UPDATE ...

I am at a loss as to what to put on the blog, all four email selections have been backed, as normal, but three of them heavily. Which means, of course, that almost all of the value has gone. However, as I didn't post anything yesterday, I feel compelled to put something online today, so will reproduce the email selections as they appeared, along with limited previews. They will be posted in 10-15 minutes, but possibly the last match aside, I could not count the rest as blog selections.

Back shortly.

TUESDAY PLANS ....

I have previewed 4 matches on the email service today and will post what I can on the blog this afternoon.

It is an interesting day, so please check back.

Good Luck.

ENGLAND .... DIVISION 1

HARTLEPOOL UNITED - BOURNEMOUTH

No surprises here, I am firmly in the home camp. United are a decent side and winning their two matches in hand, will take them into the playoff zone, which is about where I rank them, top 6-8 in the division. The visitors have suffered terribly with injuries and travel without nine players today, through a combination of injury/suspension and international call ups. Most of these are senior players, who would have started, in addition, they are forced to name two players, who, are not fully fit and in an ideal situation, would not even be on the bench.

The players that are available are feeling the effects of a terrible playing schedule that has seen them play in the far North West (Barrow) last weekend, at home, which is as far South as you can get, on Tuesday and then back up to the far North East today. With money very tight, they would not have seen much more than the motorway from the seat of a bus this week and little of their families and the training pitch. They would have completed the best part of 3000km in the last 8 days and anyone that has driven in the UK, will know what an ordeal that can be. They face a cup replay in midweek too !

Hartlepool are playing some nice football and will be well rested for this vital fixture, just cannot see anything other than a home win.

6.5 points Hartlepool -1/2 ball ... 1.60 + general.

Good Luck.

WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION .....

ARGENTINA - BOLIVIA

Argentina have a difficult looking trip to Colombia on Tuesday and there is a very good case for them not pushing too hard this evening, once the points are in the bag. They have already issued a warning along these lines to their supporters. No doubt that the visitors will be trying to shut up shop and keep the scoreline respectable, especially in light of their 5-0 thumping at Uruguay on Day 1. However, Argentina tend to win by one or two and rarely put teams to the sword, in the light of all this, I was debating a small bet on Bolivia. Then 15 minutes ago (written overnight) I got some news that the pitch at Estadio Monumental, which has seen a lot of action recently, is in really terrible condition, which will be a great leveller and will certainly be easier for defenders, so we have to go strongly with the visitors.

6 points Bolivia +2.75 goals 1.80 asian line.

Good Luck.

EURO 2008 QUALIFIER .....

MACEDONIA - CROATIA

Plenty to consider here, like, do Croatia actually want to win the group,or not, we could debate this all day, but one thing is certain, they need a single point to qualify and will not want to travel to London in midweek, still needing it.

These two countries are friendly, we can expect the visitors to start cautiously, the hosts are without their top striker and star player and have limited expectations from the match. The pitch is in poor condition and given all this, the half time draw looks very likely and it is competitively priced .

4.5 points half time draw 2.20 + general... circa 2.30 on the exchanges.


Good Luck.

ENGLAND ... LEAGUE 1

OLDHAM ATHLETIC- PORT VALE

Oldham are finding goals hard to come by, but we can expect that to change shortly. This is a team in a false position in the league and one that is still capable of getting into the playoff race. They have outplayed some of the division's better sides recently including Doncaster, Nottingham Forest and Tranmere, creating a host of chances and dominating possession. They meet a Port Vale side, under a new coach, who has started a very tough training regime. They are undergoing a gruelling programme and are training morning and afternoon, every day, this will reap dividends long term, but players are likely to feel drained to begin with, leaving their best on the training pitch. Home win.

6 points Oldham -1/2 ball 1.90 general quote.

Back later.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP .......

EXETER CITY- BURTON ALBION

Exeter served us well last week and we can stick with the west country lads, I love teams that have goals in them and City have them in abundance at the moment. they have scored 18 in 6 starts and have two top strikers, that early in the season would have started, warming the bench and straining at the leash, to get onto the pitch, these are fantastic options. Burton are going well this season, but have started to struggle defensively and have injury problems in that area today, they have conceded 5 in their last two league starts and 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 6. City remain unbeaten at home and have won 3 of the last 4 h2h meetings, with all victories coming by 2 or more goals.

5 points Exeter -1/4 ball 1.86 asian line.

Good Luck.

IRISH LEAGUE 1 PLAYOFFS ....

FINN HARPS- DUNDALK

Hosts were incredibly unlucky to miss out on automatic promotion, they went on a fantastic unbeaten run and won 14 of their last 15, with one drawn, the draw, which came in their penultimate match, cost them the championship. At least they were able to finish the domestic season with a win, coming into the playoffs with that draw as their last result, would have been a heavy cross to bear.

Now they meet Dundalk, who ended the season in decidely worse form, winning just 9 from 22 and losing six from nine, with just one win on the road. Tonight, the visitors have massive problems, they have 9 players out injured or suspended, including top striker Trevor Vaughan, who has 8 goals in 11 matches and also several other key players. Only 12 outfielders are availble and 4 youth squad players have been added.

The atmosphere will be white hot this evening and the visitors have been allocated very few tickets for their fans. This has to be played to a conclusion, extra time and then penalties, but I do not think we will get that far. Home win.

6 points Finn Harps -1/2 ball 1.71 BETFAIR .

Good Luck.

A-ROD LOOKS UP TO THE TASK.....

ATP MASTERS CUP TENNIS OUTRIGHT
ANDY RODDICK

Andy Roddick is playing his best tennis of the year right now and all the work that he and coach Jimmy Connors have put in on his backhand, is really paying dividends. He is the only player who has so far booked his place in the semi finals and has a "freeroll" aagainst Federer in the final group match. He can play without fear and could knock the world number one, who is feeling the effects of a very long season, out of the tournament.

This is not lost on the big serving american who said in an interview "there's no reason for me to be nervous. I can go out there and let it fly... play aggressive and try to knock him out."
Roddick held match point in their match here last year, this time he looks in better shape, Fed-ex a little worse. You could try a little on him to win the match, I prefer the tournament outright bet and the odds are very decent, he is the only player in Shanghai who looks really up for the tournament.

3 points Roddick outright 7.0 + , 7.50 VC bet/ Bet 365 .... a little 8.0 on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY PLANS .........

There are none ! Sorry, no selections on the blog today, there were two put on the email, but they have both been very heavily backed and the true value has therefore gone.

I will definitely be posting tomorrow, so please check back.

Good Luck.

TODAY'S FOOTBALL .... JOHNSTONE'S PAINT TROPHY

Here is one of the JPT matches that I mentioned last night, the other two have been very heavily backed, with the line falling by a full 0.25 goal, on each selection, so fantastic value for subscribers.

GILLINGHAM - DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

Sometimes it does good for a coach to let rip at his players, give them the Sir Alex "hairdryer" treatment, it certainly worked for Hartlepool at the weekend, when, after suffering the "Wrath of Wilson", they ran in six against Gainsborough.

Well, new Gills boss Mark Stimson has made it VERY clear that he will not stand for another lack lustre performance like that produced at Barnet on saturday. In addition, he signed two new , on loan strikers yesterday, players that have worked under him in the past. The home squad know that each and everyone of them is playing for his place and in some cases, their job.

Dagenham & Redbridge did us a good turn on saturday, but they are not the best of travellers and laboured to that win over Hampton and Richmond, who are several leagues below Gillingham.

The hosts are a different proposition on home soil, where few teams win, since losing in their opening fixture they have not tasted defeat, taking points off top sides Leeds United, Brighton, Doncaster and Leyton Orient.

Following progression in the FA Cup and a winable second round tie, D&R should be giving the league their full attention and have a big home game with Bradford coming up, this evening should be given low priority.

The Gills at Priestfield, where they have lost just 2 in 14 and 10 in 52, should have too much class and personally, I would not wish to face a rabid Stimson twice in four days !

5 points Gillingham -3/4 ball 1.86 asian line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY UPDATE ..........

I am in fantastic form, especially on the english domestic football, where my last nine selections have won ! That's 2/2 today, 2/2 yesterday and 5/5 on saturday ..... I have some very strong ideas for tomorrow and wednesday, in particular for the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, which has been a profitable tournament in the past.

If possible, I will post something on the blog, if not and/or you cannot wait, consider joining the email service and they will be delivered directly to your inbox each and every morning .... full details can be found on this link.


Good Luck.