Saturday, January 19, 2008

SATURDAY ....

ENGLAND
CHAMPIONSHIP
WATFORD - CHARLTON ATHLETIC


I hope that Watford can recover from a poor run and get back into the promotion hunt, for the sake of our long term bet, if nothing else. However, at present, they look below the standard required and to my eyes, WBA and Charlton look superior to the rest. Palace have a lot of potential, but are an extremely young team and due a blip soon.

The home side have hardly improved their chances by selling Marlon King to Fulham, they have not won at Vicarage Road since early October and meet a Charlton side close to their best. They trounced Blackpool last week and look to have goals all over the pitch, they rested a handful of players at WBA in a midweek cup tie and were very unfortunate not to win in any case.Few teams would rest players and take the game to the league leaders at the Hawthorns. Iwelumo,Thomas, Semedo, Powell and Fortune, all return to the squad and this team have only lost 3 on the road, where their abundant pace is a huge advantage, all season. I do not see them adding to that tally this evening.

5 points Charlton +1/2 ball 1.70.

PLYMOUTH ARGYLE - SOUTHAMPTON

Something of a fire sale has gone on at Plymouth, with the sales of Hayles, Ebanks-Blake and Goslin, the cream of the Argyle crop. It is hard to see them doing much in the remainder of the season and a mid table finish at best, seems the limit of their ambitions.They have just one win in 5 strats and that was rather fortunate, with a last minute winner against QPR. There home form is not the best, which is strange as clubs have to travel so far, to this most westerly ground, with just 5 wins all season, only Crystal Palace of the top 17 sides in the Championship, have fewer.

Saints are a talented bunch of individuals and still have an eye on the playoffs, defensively they are much stronger now and are finally capable of hanging on to a lead.

5 points Southampton +1/4 ball 1.90 asian line.

DIVISION 1
MANSFIELD TOWN - DARLINGTON

Town have a huge cup tie next week against Middlesbrough, a match that locals are describing as their biggest in the last 20 years ! This is Boro boys !

They would be better concentrating on their precarious league position, but that is easier said than done and no one, will want to miss out on the "big match". Today, they are without two key defenders and two vital strikers are also rated very doubtful. It is hard to see them scoring too many today, they have failed to register any in 3 of their last 6 and meet the division's meanest defence this afternoon.

Darlington have conceded just 15 this season, including 5 in one away game, which means that in the other 11 road matches, 7 of which they won, only 4 were allowed. This big spending club will go third in the table with a win and are desperate to get out of this division.

5 points Darlington -1/4 ball 1.82 asian line.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP
ALDERSHOT- FOREST GREEN ROVERS

The 25/1 pre-season about Aldershot winning the title, which I did suggest was big, is something only available in dreams now and they are looking to protect a 7 point lead at the top of the table, with two "big" clubs breathing down their neck.

I favour them to get the points this afternoon against a FGR side, that has gone off the boil.They have just a single win in six starts, that being one of divisional whipping boys, Droylsden's, two wins this season. Infact,they conceded 7 goals in two games with the basement club in this sequence, 13 in total. In Stuart Fleetwood, they have the country's leading marksman, but he has been the subject of several recent,big money bids from league clubs and would not be human, if he was not more concerned with those.

5 points Aldershot -3/4 ball 2.07 asian line.

FRANCE LIGUE 1
LORIENT - PARIS ST GERMAIN


PSG did us a big favour in midweek and now that Paul le Guen has finally got his team performing at home, I see no let up on the road, where they are as good as anyone. A quick look at the table, will tell you that this is a mid table battle, but these are two teams with vastly different ambitions, for the second half of the season.

Lorient's only aim is survival and are still well aware that they could be dragged into the relegation dogfight. PSG only have eyes upwards and are still looking to claim a european spot, they have a decent run of fixtures ahead and victory today, would really mean that this particular juggernaut was on the move. They will be witout the suspended Mario Yepes for the visit to the Stade du Moustoir, but played 85 minutes and scored 3 goals without reply, after his expulsion in midweek. They already have 7 goals this week and I expect them to add to that tally this evening.

6 points PSG +1/4 ball 1.74 asian line.

Good Luck.

Friday, January 18, 2008

SUPER BRENTFORD, SUPER BEES ..........


ACCRINGTON STANLEY - BRENTFORD FC

Not going to get involved from a betting point of view, I rarely oppose professional teams, after they have suffered very heavy defeats and Accrinton's 8-2 loss at Peterborough in midweek, definitely falls into that category. However, I will update a little news....



The Bees travelled north this morning, so should be nice and fresh for kick off tomorrow, when they are looking for their 5th straight win. Infact, they have won 5 from 7, with the other two results in that sequence, being a draw away at league leaders MK Dons and a loss to Wycombe, where the Bees led and played really well, before being reduced to ten men, which turned the game on it's head. The club is buzzing at the moment and supporters are turning into "believers" once more. New(ish) boss Andy Scott has added new loan signings, Craig Stone from Gillingham, who I know little about and Jordan Parkes, whom Watford hold in very high regard and at just 19, is on the verge of Championship football, to an otherwise unchanged squad. Some real competition for places at Griffin Park right now and in what is a pretty poor division, there is no reason why they cannot continue the improvement.



Good Luck.

LIGUE 2 ....


GUINGAMP - AJACCIO

Sometimes , when looking at a match, everything simply feels right and this is just such a game, doesn't mean that it will win, but I can't help but feel confident.

It is hard to see this turning into a goal fest, Guingamp's home games have produced a ligue low number of goals and Ajaccio's away starts have a similar record, so a good case can be made for "under" and I would not try to put any of you off that bet.

However, I am going for a home win, Ajaccio have been on a good run, but have been riding their luck, in the 0-0 draw with Boulogne last week for example, they conceded an awful lot of goal attempts to their opponents. They are much happier at home and even in a league with few away wins, their total of 6 from the last 30, is way below average.

Guingamp are coming on strong and are unbeaten in 4 and, this is the key to my confidence, they always play much better in the second half of the season, I have come up with amazing stats to back this up. They have a fine home record and have lost just 6 of 39 matches, well below the league average, but if we look at their record in the second half of the last two seasons, they have had an incredible run and are unbeaten in 22 league starts at home. Not sure why this is, their away form normally improves too, just not to the same degree, whatever the reason, we should take advantage of it over the next few weeks and this is a team that I will be following.

6.5 points Guingamp -1/4 ball 1.88 asian line.... now 1.82


Good Luck.

DIVISION 1


HARTLEPOOL UNITED - CHELTENHAM TOWN

A couple of recent home wins and some decent loan signings, have given the visitors a realistic chance of survival this season. Their fate is very dependent on performances at Whaddon Road, where they are tough to beat, on the road, they are 1-1-9 and have managed just 7 goals.

The season has turned into one of disappointment for Hartlepool, after a very promising start , but they remain a classy outfit and this is a pivotal match in their campaign. A win would take them to within 8 points of 6th spot and keep the dream alive, defeat would leave them just 3 points above Town, current in the drop zone, having played a game more. The hosts are too good to get dragged into the relegation dogfight and are due a change of luck.

They have claimed just 3 points from their last 4 starts and could easily have picked up many more, maybe all 12. Last time out at Northampton, they dominated possession (55%) and created 15 attempts on goal, previously, at highflying Carlisle, they had a similar amount of the ball and twice led, before eventually losing. In the last two home starts against top sides Leyton Orient and Leeds, they again took the game to their opponents, had the best of the match and chances, but did not get the run of the ball, performance levels have been very high. There is little wrong with Hartlepool that cannot be put right with a decent win and I feel that will come tomorrow, it it does, we can expect a "run" from Danny Wilson's men. Home win.

6 points Hartlepool -1/2 ball 1.80 general quote.... now 1.72


Good Luck.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS .....WOMEN'S THIRD ROUND


ELENA DEMENTIEVA - SHAHAR PEER

These two have met on three occasions, all were very close and came on different surfaces, the Russian leads the series 2-1 .

However, I feel that the conditions here favour the Israeli, who at 20 years of age, should be coming into her prime. She made significant progress last season, especially here, where she beat Golovin and Kuznetsova, en route to a quarter final with Serena Williams, where she took the eventually champion to 8-6 in a third set decider. Peer was the only top ranked player to push the American in Melbourne last year and will have taken a lot of confidence from that. She is obviously confident on the surface, having also taken the Girl's event here in 2004.

You are never really sure what you are going to get with Dementieva, other than some appalling serving, but she is a fierce competitor and always gives her best. She has a 19-9 record here in the last 7 years, which looks ok, but she has never gone beyond the 4th round , or beaten a player ranked higher than 27 on these courts, Peer is currently 17.

I suspect that the bookies have the wrong favourite and am certain that Peer will trade lower at some stage "in running". having said that, I expect her to win.

5.5 points Peer to beat Dementieva 2.20 Bet 365/ 2.18 Pinnacle .... similar, or bigger odds should be available on the exchanges.




Good Luck.

THURSDAY NEWS ....

PSG obliged yesterday, looks like Paul le Guen has finally got them firing and the home "bogey" seems to be behind them. They are a massive looking 11 points off a Champions League place, but who knows how far they could go, the next two or three games are key and if PSG could win these, they will have Bordeaux and especially Nancy, looking over their shoulders.

I have previewed two matches on the email service today, both are confident selections and I am planning to put one on the blog later today, as long as the odds hold up.

Please check back.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

WEDNESDAY .......

FRANCE ... LIGUE CUP
PARIS ST GERMAIN - VALENCIENNES

I have to feel that Paul le Guen's side will be keen to get some silverware on board and this is the best chance they will get this season.They finally got the monkey off their back, with a 3-0 win over Lens at the weekend, their first league win on home soil of the season.On the road, they have been showing Champions League form, so the lack of success on home soil , is hard to explain. Anyway, they will want to get a little run going at the Parc des Princes and to that end, PLG has named his strongest squad, see below, with only Digard, who left the field injured in the first half against Lens, missing.

The visitors are having a fantastic season and are pressing for an unlikely CL spot, but that is almost entirely down to their home form, away, they have a 1-3-6 record and have scored just 5 goals, none in the last 3. Player for player ,I feel that they are clearly inferior to PSG, who are looking for a 4th win in 5 starts and will probably get it.

ALONZO Jérôme
ARMAND Sylvain
ARNAUD Loris
BOURILLON Grégory
CAMARA Zoumana
CEARA Marcos
CHANTOME Clément
CLEMENT Jérémy
DIANE Amara
LANDREAU Mickaël
LUYINDULA Peguy
MENDY Bernard
NGOG David
NGOYI Granddi
PAULETA Pedro
ROTHEN Jérôme
SAKHO Mamadou
YEPES Mario

5 points PSG -1/2 ball 1.98 asian line.

Back Later.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

GLENN ROEDER HAS GOT THE CANARIES FLYING ..........


ENGLAND .... FA CUP REPLAY
BURY - NORWICH CITY

I think one of the key elements in finding winners, are individual team's performance levels. Sometimes you can find a team that is playing well and just not getting the run of the ball, they are worth following, especially once the first win comes. On occasion, you find a team in good form, who have been playing better than even those results might suggest, Norwich are such a club. They are unbeaten in 9 and have scored in their last 12 starts, but in recent draws with Charlton and Palace , two top sides that will challenge for a place in the Premiership, City completely outplayed their opponents and got the minimum reward from those games.

Bury's recent form is almost a mirror image, as they are without a win in 9, including some dismal displays, especially in home losses to Wrexham and Dagenham, they have failed to score in 6 of those games. The axe fell yesterday and they dismissed manager Chris Casper and director of football, Keith Alexander, they are without three players, who would all have probably started.

City had 20 attempts on goal in the first game and should not need so many this time round.

5.5 points Norwich -1/2 ball 1.85 general quote... bigger in places.



Good Luck.

TUESDAY UPDATE


Plenty of rain around the UK and several matches have already fallen foul of the weather, including, one of my four email selections for this evening.


I remain in excellent form on the football, over the last three days, I have emailed 13 bets on our main sport, one was void and 9 of the other 12 won. It is my intention to put one of the remaining three matches on the blog shortly.


Details of the email service/newsletter can be found on http://www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com/ .


Back shortly.

Monday, January 14, 2008

FRANCE .... LIGUE 2


STADE BRESTOIS - LE HAVRE

One of the stronger home teams (6-2-1), meet the division's best away side (6-1-2) in an attractive televised monday night fixture. Le Havre are running hot and a win this evening, will take them 8 points clear of the fourth placed club and planning for a season in Ligue 1. As their record suggests, they have been "going for it" on the road, where they have averaged over two goals per start, scoring in all 11 fixtures, also conceding in their last 4. I see no reason for them to suddenly change tactics, that have worked so well and expect them to go looking for goals. The club have received a huge boost in recent days, by re-signing John-Michel Lesage from Auxerre, a proven goal scorer at this level, he played for Le Havre for seven seasons previously.

Brest have conceded in their last 9 matches and scored and conceded in 5 of their last 7. In this game, with the goal line set at "2", I can only go "over".

5.5 points "over" 2 goals 1.87 asian line.

Good Luck.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

NFL PLAYOFFS .... DALLAS COWBOYS- NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants have been strong on the road this season, losing just once, at Dallas, interestingly enough. Infact, the Cowboys did the double over them, recording a double digit victory in each game, quarterback Tony Romo had great stats, going 35 for 52 passes, 592 yards and 8 touchdowns, 4 to Terrell Owens. Dallas have lost just three all year, against the unbeaten Patriots, no shame in that and verses motivated Washington and Philly teams, when they had little or nothing to play for and chose to rest players.

Owens and centre Andre Gurode have been nursed a little to get fit for this game, both are very likely to start and are important. They will play I am sure, T.O will be important even if less than 100%, his presence will give space for Jason Witten, often overlooked, to do his thing and for Barber to run the ball. Dallas have too many offensive options for the Giants.

New York have some major doubts in key positions and this looks one road game too far to me.

6 points Dallas Cowboys -7 points circa 1.93 Vegas Line.



Good Luck.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS .....


I am taking a low key approach for the first day or two, smell a possible upset in the Men's event, but not sure how to approach this yet. Want to start with a small bet on Ana Ivanovic in the Women's, we have discussed her very professional and focused build up to this season already (see below) and she will be pleased with her start, reaching the semis in Sydney and taking Justin Henin to a third set. We are already 10 points up ( email service) on the young Serbian and I am certain that she will make us a lot of money this year. I am happy that she is on the opposite side of the draw to Henin , who still seems to be struggling with an amazing number of double faults and Serena Williams, who loves it in Melbourne. The each way bet looks very good, but if that is not available to you, a straight win bet at circa 16.0 should offer great hedging opportunities, later in the tournament.

2 points each way Ivanovic 15.0 1/2 odds two places Corals etc OR 3 points win 16.0 + Pinnacle /Exchanges.


Written on 28/12/07 ......

At only just 20 years old, she is still growing (1.85m), getting physically stronger and putting in the hours required to progress. Following a short break, she spent several weeks indoor training in London, with the temperature cranked up very high and was putting in three workout sessions on some days.

Ivanovic has since moved onto Australia, to fully prepare for the new season and adapt to summer conditions, after two weeks there, she should already be fully acclimatized and ready to make a flying start. We have to keep her on our side, especially early on, when few others will be so well tuned.


Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING ....

I have previewed four football matches on the email service today, along with a brief look at the Australian Open tennis and one of tonight's NFL playoff games.

Going to probably cover one of those two events on the blog later today, but none of the football fixtures. However, I will tell you that the heavy rain which forced the postponement of the Rangers Scottish Cup game, is moving down the north west of England, along with high winds and is likely to have a big impact on the matches at Bolton and Hereford. So please take this into account if betting on either of these two games.

Good Luck.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

SATURDAY UPDATE ....


Leicester City obliged and that makes 23 winning selections from 28 on the blog, let's hope that Seattle can keep it close tonight and keep the run going.


Brentford won again, that's four in a row and now just 8 points off the playoffs !


On the email service, four of the five afternoon selections won, the 5th took the lead , but could not hold on. The two french matches covered, are both evening kick offs.


Tomorrow looks like fun, a full(ish) round in Serie A and Spain, some VERY interesting games in England, where I have already found some decent looking bets , plus the NFL playoffs and the start of the Australian Open Tennis Championships. I have not finalised my plans yet, but it is highly unlikely that I will post any football (soccer) bets on the blog on sunday, they will be kept to the newsletter/email service, might well cover one of the other two events on here though. So, if you are interested in either of those, make a note to check back.




Good Luck.


GREEN BAY PACKERS - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


I promised to put this online at 16.00 UK time, so, this will have to be extremly brief, sorry.


Seahawks are a little beat up, but I expect them to keep this close, certainly within 9 points. These two met at Lambeau Field in 2004 in the playoffs and it went into overtime, something similar would not surprise me at all.


Seattle coach Mike Holmgren knows the Green Bay Packer quarterback Brett Favre, almost as well as he knows himself and might be able to find a chink in his armour. Favre's recent playoff record is not very good, he has lost 6 from 8 and thrown an interception in all but one and 14 in total, in his last five !


Visitors have had no running game to speak of all season and GB have not given up a 100 yards on the ground since Week 3. Time for the forgotten men (Alexander ?) to step up for Seattle, take them and the points.


5 points Seattle +9 points 1.83 Vegas line/ Pinnacle.


Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP .....



LEICESTER CITY - COVENTRY CITY

Local derby, not exactly sure what the pitch is like, as there are flood warnings across the Midlands, but early reports are ok and a dry, sunny day is expected.


Ian Holloway has been as busy as any in the transfer window and has added 7 players to his squad, including dipping his toe into the Hungarian market, where he had fantastic success at Plymouth. He also took classy Matt Oakley, keeper Alnwick from Spurs and two proven strikers in Hayles and Howard, all of whom are set to make their home debuts today.

Key player, Stephen Clemence, also returns to the side and provides yet more options. Leicester have been unlucky in two New Year away defeats, creating more chances than both QPR and Southampton, but not putting them away, their overall performance levels have improved greatly.

The visitors are without skipper, Michael Doyle, they have a poor record against their local rivals, losing on the last 4 visits and without a win in 8, home or away. Recent league performances have been decidely average and they seem to save their best for the cup.

6 points Leicester City -1/4 ball 1.89 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY PLANS ....

Bristol Rovers coasted home last night, that makes 22 winners from the last 27 blog selections !

I have sent previews of eight weekend matches to email subscribers, seven today, five english and two french and one for a sunday game. Looking to put one of these on the blog today, but cannot promise anything at the moment, but will definitely cover the NFL later this afternoon, with four of the remaining eight teams in action this evening.

Please check back.

Friday, January 11, 2008

FRIDAY MORNING .....


I have not been following the "Next Newcastle Manager" market much, but as I write, Happy Harry Redknapp, is trading at circa 1.44 with Betfair, over 90% of the £2.2 m bet, has been for the Pompey boss. Guess that Redknapp owns enough of the south east and is moving in on the north east property market.


I covered five matches on the email service today, three for the weekend and two additional games from this evening's action. Not going to post anything further on the blog, at least selection wise today, just sticking with the Bristol Rovers bet, given in the post below. I will definitely be blogging tomorrow.


Take a close look at the Rovers post, it will give you an idea of the value of the email service, it was given to subscribers two days ago at 1.96, it is now trading at 1.74, win or lose, that is great value. Some 90% of my selections trade at lower odds and getting the best of the quotes makes a massive difference to your bottom line, over the course of a week or two, let alone a whole season. Details can be found here.


Good Luck.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

EARLY BET FOR FRIDAY ......... DIVISION 1


TRANMERE ROVERS-BRISTOL ROVERS

Tranmere have already played on Saturday and last night (tuesday), so this will be their third game in six days, which, coming after the busy Christmas/New Year period, with many game played on heavy pitches, is simply too much. Add to the mix, the fact that they have injury concerns and are conceding far too freely. In the 3-0 defeat at Orient , they also played 40 minutes with 10 men and two players started, clearly not 100% fit. A long journey back to Merseyside, late at night, in terrible driving conditions, will not have helped much either.

Paul Trollope, on the other hand, has his team in good form, well rested, in a focused frame of mind and with a lot of competition for places. I can only go one way and am happy with the odds.

6.5 points Bristol Rovers +1/2 ball 1.96 asian line.... now 1.89.


Good Luck.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

WEDNESDAY PLANS ....

Wycombe won last night, to get the blog back on track, not that we were seriously derailed, as, that makes 21 of the last 26 that have won !

I have written previews of 5 events on the email service today, one tennis match and four football games, one, an early and strong selection for the weekend. Going to try and post something from this selection on here later today, but am not certain yet.

The only way to be sure of getting to read all the GOWI output, is by subscribing to the daily newsletter, details can be found on this link.

Good Luck

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

DIVISION 2 ..........


MANSFIELD TOWN- WYCOMBE WANDERERS

Town would have had at least a mini celebration after their cup win at Brighton at the weekend and then , probably got carried away with the excitement of the 4th round draw yesterday, when they were rewarded with a home tie with Middlesbrough. They might come down to earth with a bump this evening, they are in poor league form, have won just once in 8 starts, losing six and failing to score in 5.

Mansfield are further hit by injury and suspension, with at least 4 players out, including top scored Michael Boulding, who has notched 12 of their 24 goals this season.

They meet a Wycombe team finally hitting their stride and fully rested after a free weekend, with 4 wins in a 5 match, unbeaten run, including beating Brentford, the Bees only loss in 6 starts, thought that I would get that one in .Wanderers create a lot of chances and have been short, recently, of a proven goals scorer, they have taken Leon Knight from MK Dons this week, he is good at this level .... when he wants to be ! No doubt that he will start very well and all will be fine and dandy for a few weeks, after that, who knows ! However, for now, we are only interested in today , he is lightning quick and if they feed him, he will score. Away win.

6 points Wycombe level ball 1.82 asian line.




Good Luck.

Monday, January 07, 2008

LONG TERM MARKET UPDATE .....


On August 11th 2007, I wrote my preview for the lower league, ante post market in England, there is a link to read the full article at the foot of this post. My only selection in Division 2 was Paul Ince's MK Dons and I suggested .......

2 points win Milton Keynes Dons 9.0 general
5 points promotion 3.0 Tote/ Stan James/Bet 365.

They now sit at the top of the table, some 9 points clear, but having played a game more than their nearest rivals. The purpose for this post, is not to tell you how clever I am, that should be obvious by now, but to point out that they can be laid at 1.40 on the exchanges, should you choose to take a profit, or at least cover your stake.

Whether you should do so, is open to debate, they have played a series of very tough games and now face an easy looking sequence, with 3 of their next 4 at home. Maybe you want to keep a watchful eye on the situation, just remember that a lot can go wrong and very quickly in football, what if they lose their management team ? The potential win for the us is 28 points, but if they collapse.... nothing, infact, we could lose 7 points. It only "costs" 2.8 units to cover our stake and even securing a double digit profit regardless of what happens, by laying them for 20 points, only reduces our profit, if they are champions, by 8 points.

I am not the greatest fan of hedging, my feeling is that you should always do it, or not at all, but it would be remiss of me, not to at least, mention it. It is also a very different situation when you can lay something at big odds on, that you have backed at massive prices. A 20 points lay, means that you win 13 units if they are not promoted, 28 if they go up , but not as champions and 18 if they win the league. Anyway, that particular ball is now firmly in your court.

I will take a look at some of our other, long term positions shortly.

http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2007/08/lower-league-previews.html

Good Luck.

MONDAY ............. ALL GOOD THINGS COME TO AN END

The winning run came to an end yesterday, after 13 straight winners on the blog, Betis and Tampa Bay both lost and put in disappointing performances, which bothers me more than the bare result. Eli Manning finally got the monkey off his back, will no doubt be feeling happy with himself this morning and will be a better player for it..... doesn't help me though !

Still, 20 of the last 25 have won, so I cannot beat myself up too much. Looking ahead, this week promises much, especially tomorrow, when we have a lot of interesting matches, including the next round of the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, which I have long been waiting for and where, we have enjoyed great success this season.

Today, I wrote detailed previews of two matches on the email service, both of which are being shown live on television. How football has changed, to see not one , but two matches live on a quiet Monday, when the top 4 english divisions are not playing, would have been simply unthinkable, just a couple of years ago.

I enjoyed the FA Cup third round, this is still the premier domestic cup competition in the world and you can see how much it means to the players and especially supporters, of the lower league clubs. Sorry to bring everything back to money, but it makes the world go around, some league clubs are operating on a £1m playing budget and a potential £300k windfall from one third round cup tie is massive, you can imagine what it can do for a non league club !

Wish that all clubs would be forced to openly announce their playing budget's at the start of each season, it would be a fantastically useful tool, especially if they had to keep to it ! Never going to happen though and it would only encourage more shenanigans. In Division 2 , I understand that MK Dons budget is almost 3 times that of my beloved Bees, a quick look at the league table, will tell you that money talks, at all levels of the game.

Good Luck.

Sunday, January 06, 2008

NFL WILDCARD GAME ............


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - NEW YORK GIANTS

I like the Bucs, the Giants struggle to handle quarterback Jeff Garcia's quick release and he has twice knocked them out of the playoffs, including once, when he single handedly dragged the 49ers by the scruff of the neck across the winning line, in what might have been, no time to check, the biggest comeback in playoff history. He also did it last year and is 4-1 lifetime against NYG. His receivers Galloway and Hilliard are coming off big season's and can get a lot of joy against this Giants secondary.


For New York, qb Eli Manning is talented, but throws almost as many interceptions as touchdowns (20-23) and might get nervous infront of this big and noisy crowd, no, he will get nervous. They have key injuries to centre Sean O'Hara and cornerback Sam Madison, neither has trained at all this week, if they do not start,as seems likely at present, then this is a no brainer for me. If they do, they are probably not 100% anyway.

6.5 points Tampa Bay money line 1.71 exchanges.


Good Luck.

LA LIGA ...........


SEVILLE- BETIS

This is not for the squeamish ! There is rarely any quarter given in this most keenly fought and passionate of local derbies and in fifteen meetings, 8 of which have ended all square, no team has ever won by more than a single goal. To my eyes, the home side, who conceded 3 in midweek at home to 3rd level club Denia, are incredibly short priced to win this evening. Since taking over at Betis, Paco Chaparro has overseen a 5 match unbeaten run, with some excellent wins against tough opposition and has restored the confidence of his playing staff. Getting a full ball start, they look an excellent bet.

6 points Betis +1 ball 1.90 asian line..... NOW 1.84.




Good Luck.

JOURNEYMAN STRIKERS .... MORE CLUBS THAN TIGER WOODS


I got distracted by an article in the Sunday Times ,which focused on Burnley's Ade Akinbiyi, who has played for 11 clubs, been transfered 12 times for a total of £15m + and no doubt made a fortune for his agent.


They touched on the cult of the "journeyman striker" , the players that are always in demand, seem to score goals wherever they go, but never stay anywhere too long. Akinbiyi is a prime example I guess, but his transfer fees are far in excess of the norm for this type of player.


Dean Windass is often cited as such , he has kept up a goal every 3 game average, in almost 700 matches, including two yesterday for Hull City. Still going strong at 38, he is something of an amateur in this "club", having only played for nine teams, his eleven transfers totalled under £3m.


Step forward the real leaders of this band of brothers, firstly, Steve ( have boots will travel) Claridge played for 20 clubs, across 24 seasons in the game and might not yet be finished, if someone would only call ! Next up, is the baby of the bunch, Trevor Benjamin, also on the mark, for Hereford yesterday, he might yet turn out to "the daddy", Still only 28 he has played for an amazing 16 clubs, made all the more remarkable as he spent 5 years at each of Cambridge and Leicester. He doesn't just stick to one national side either, having played for England U21 and Jamaica !


Never mind 5 volumes of Wayne Rooney's autobiography, Benjamin's would make a far better read, but then he probably has another decade and goodness knows how many more clubs to play for, before putting pen to paper on anything other than a new contract !


Back later.

THIRTEEN ............ UNLUCKY FOR THE BOOKMAKERS !

Stevenage and Jacksonville both won yesterday, making 13 consecutive winning blog selections since the NFL bet on the New York Giants on 23rd December.


Some fantastic sporting action in the FA Cup and the Wildcard playoff games, but there can be little doubt that the highlight of the day was Brentford's win at Shrewsbury . The Bees are on the move, just one loss in 6 , including three straight wins, after what has gone before, that leaves a warm glow on a cold winter morning !


I am not sure what my plans are for today, still working on the newsletter at the moment, the only way to be certain of seeing all my output, is to subscribe to the email service. A $20 unit stake on all blog selections alone over the holiday period, would have made you well over $1700 profit, one quarter of which, would pay for an email subscription for six months, you do the sums. Details can be found on www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com .

Good Luck.

Saturday, January 05, 2008

NFL WILDCARD GAME ............


PITTSBURGH STEELERS- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jacksonville look to have the Steelers number , they have beaten them in each of the last 3 seasons, twice at Heinz Field, including just three weeks ago.
Jax ran for 224 yards then and Pittsburgh simply could not stop them, a beat up offensive line tonight is very unlikely to fare any better. Visitors are further boosted by the hosts being without Willie Parker, who had 100 yards of rushing himself that day. Jaguars have won 7 in a row against the AFC North and can make it 8 . Steelers confidence is very low and I just do not see how they can halt the Jaguar Juggernaut.

6.5 points Jacksonville circa 1.70 moneyline.


Good Luck.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP ....


STAFFORD RANGERS- STEVENAGE BOROUGH

Going to stick with Stevenage, who I discussed in detail and selected for the 5-1 win at Altrincham. They meet a side with similar problems today. Hosts have a terrible 1-7-17 record, are 10 points adrift of safety, having played a game more, they have conceded 20 in 10 starts and their only clean sheet in living memory, came against fellow strugglers Northwich.

Boro are desperate to keep leaders Aldershot in sight, ahead of a planned late season charge, they have already won 7 from 11 away, scoring 22 times. Their respective records point to Stevenage scoring twice (at least), as does the Rangers home record, they have managed only 8 goals and 4 points in 12 starts, conceding 24, again, an average of exactly two per game.

Visitors won the reverse fixture 3-1 and did the double last season with a 9-1 goal difference.
Peter Taylor has this side on the move again and they could very well close in on injury hit Aldershot this afternoon.

6.5 points Stevenage -3/4 ball 1.73 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY PLANS ....

I will definitely be posting a football selection on the blog today, looking to make it 12 winners in a row ! Also going to take a look at the NFL playoffs ,which get under way today and where we remain in good form.

Please check back.

Friday, January 04, 2008

NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE ....


FRIDAY MORNING .....

It feels odd not blogging everyday, like I have forgotten to do something !

I had just the one selection on the email service yesterday, which won, so, be assured, I remain in unbelievable form and will be looking to extend the winning run on the blog, which stands at 11 and 18 from the last 21, over the weekend.

Quite a bit of snow around in the northern parts of the UK and it is cold, really cold ! There has been plenty of warning about this weather, so I hope that everyone has taken appropriate precautions and that the football programme will not be unduly affected.

Really looking forward to the NFL playoffs which get underway tomorrow, pretty certain to be covering these on the blog, last three american football selections have won also and in addition to a game or two, I am considering taking a position on the outright market, where there looks a little value.

The only way to receive all the GOWI selections and analysis, each and every morning, delivered directly to your inbox, is by subscribing to the email service, details can be found on www.bestbets4free.blogspot.com .

Good Luck.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

WEDNESDAY UPDATE .........

Aberdeen won,that makes eleven in a row for the blog !

Email subscribers also received an additional selection, which was backed from 1.99 down to 1.75 and won. It is not only the selections on the email service that might help you, in addition to a third preview for this evening's football, I also wrote .....

Elsewhere, I did look at Falkirk, who have only lost to the Old Firm in their last 11 and won 3 scoring 11, they travel to Kilmarnock (just one win in 9) and only Celtic have scored more away goals than Falkirk, who are averaging two per game. Dunfermline,were also an option, unbeaten in 5, winning the last 3, they look rejuvenated as we discussed at the weekend and appear to be heading in the opposite direction to Livingston, who have won just once in 6, conceding 14 times.

These were not selections and I would not claim them as such, but they were the only other teams discussed, both won without conceding a goal and were available at big prices.

Good Luck.

SCOTLAND .... SPL


ABERDEEN - INVERNESS CT

Inverness are a popular choice today with many pundits, they have won 6 from 7 and look to have secured a position of mid table safety.However, they can hardly travel with too much confidence today, having never beaten the Dons in 12 meetings.

The Aberdeen treatment room is still pretty full, but they have coped with this situation for months, lost just once in 7 and have continued to compete in the SPL and Europe. A win today is absolutely vital and has been targeted as such by the club, who are still eyeing up a 3rd place finish. This is their only home SPL game in a 34 day period and they look an all round stronger side to me, I certainly do not see them losing this one. Much has been made of the fact that several players are refusing to sign contract extensions, but if you want away, the best way to attract offers, is by playing well, so I personally do not see this as a negative for the moment.

6 points Aberdeen -1/4 ball 1.86 asian line.

Good luck.

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE .....

Plenty of UK domestic action today, evening start's in England, but it is a Bank Holiday in Scotland, so a reminder that their programme is due to take place this afternoon, all matches being scheduled for a 16.00 cet kick off.

Will post something before these games kick off, so please check back.

Good Luck.