Below are my notes for the first three days of Wimbledon, about half of you received the Monday email on Sunday afternoon, so I have no problems reproducing it here. Some of the notes still have value and are worthwhile reading.
MONDAY JUNE 20TH
I am leaving the Irish football alone today, but will definitely return to it at the end of this week with the next round of matches.
Only Wimbledon in this email, I am going to the Championships twice this week, got a "free" ticket for today and with the family on wednesday, so am hoping to get plenty of ideas to see us through the fortnight.
I am more interested in the Ladies Singles, so will get the Mens event out of the way first. It is very difficult to see beyond the big four and quotes of circa 3.25 for a repeat of all meeting in the semi-finals, like they did in Paris might seem skinny, but are perfectly valid, with very few real dangerous floaters in the draw, Tomas Berdych made the final last year and is the most likely to cause an upset, he is in the same quarter as Rafael Nadal and with Kohlschreiber, Del Potro and a couple of others potentially likely to do some damage, the French Open champion has definitely the worst of the draw. Having said that, Berdych is not in the same shape coming into this event. Jo Wilfred Tsonga is in Roger Federer's section, Soderling in with Djokovic and Roddick in the same quarter as Murray, but that is about it. No upsets here for me and at least three, quite possibly four of the big names making their predicted mark.
Rain forecast today, but centre court play will not be interupted and one match there, between Radek Stepanek and Fernando Verdasco is of interest. Stepanek leads the series 3-2 and won their only meeting on the surface here in 2006 in five close sets. The 32 year old Stepanek is in the twilight of a pretty solid career and in decent form, posting grass court wins over Tsonga and Ljubicic in recent weeks and taking a set off Rafa at Queens Club. Verdasco is gritty and has had a whole series of big serving battles with Ancic, Karlovic ( twice), Stepanek and Roddick on grass. Really hard to split these two, Stepanek looks a shade big at 2.50 but the spaniard is better on the surface than he is given credit for and beat Nalbandian and Mahut at Queens before losing to Roddick and the US player was not the same one who lost tamely to Murray in the final that day ! I like this to go to a minimum four sets and am strongly in the "over" camp, only Unibet have posted as I type, 1.87 "over" 39.5 games, which I am very keen on, if similar is available elsewhere that would have to be a double stake 2 unit selection. WON
Onto the Ladies, Venus and Serena Williams have won nine of the last eleven titles between them and at least one of them seems sure to put in a big run again, but they have played very little tennis ( almost none) in the last 12 months and it would be a sorry indictment of the women's game were either to win, but it could happen ! However, Serena is fast approaching 30 and Venus was 31 last Friday and this year, at least for the time being I have to look elsewhere.
Let's take a run through the quarters, starting from the top, world number one Caroline Wozniacki is not my favourite player as you might have guessed and I normally look to oppose her in the bigger events, against the better players. In her favour, she has won at Eastbourne in the past and did take a Girls Singles title at Wimbledon in 2006. Also there are no real dangers in her 16, so a chance to really play herself in, however, I do not think she is up to winning a grand slam at present and in the bottom half of her section are Sam Stosur, who was very disappointing at Roland Garros and Maria Sharapova who was not ! The Russian superstar, the biggest earner in woman's sport, changed coaches and racquets earlier this year and remodelled her service action, all changes have gone well and she was a shock winner in Rome without dropping a set and semi finalist at RG, for a player who turns about as fast as an oil tanker, they were fantastic performances and will have given her great confidence coming into an event which suits her game much better and which she has won previously.She withdrew from Birmingham, so no warm up event, but that might be just as well after the rigours of the clay court season, she starts against Ana Chakvetadze whom she leads 7-0 all in straight sets, so that should get her nicely primed, but at a top priced 2.375, it is hard to put her up as a selection to win the quarter, there is not much value in that skinny quote, but she would be my pick.
Quarter 2 has a whole host of dangerous players in it, Li Na , Serena, Ivanovic, Radwanska, Marion Bartoli and several others, it is a very tough section. Given her lack of tennis, Serena is a very short price to come out top and at circa 9.0 Bartoli, who loves the surface and added a grass court title at Eastbourne last week to her CV, which is even more impressive considering her big run in Paris, is a far more attractive quote and could give Williams big problems in the fourth round.
The third section is arguably the most interesting including the resurgent Jelena Dokic back inside the top 50 for the first time in years following a final appearance in Holland on grass last week meeting Francesca Schiavone, who is not comfortable on the surface in the opening round. Dokic was a semi finalist here as an 18 yo and the previous year,as a 17 yo qualifier beat world number one Martina Hingis 6-2 6-0 in what many consider the biggest tennis upset of all time. That is a long time ago of course, but she is still three year younger than the italian and clearly happier on grass. Schiavone admitted to being very flat and lacking in energy at Eastbourne and I think she will struggle to get her intensity back in the damp conditions in London at present.Dokic leads the h2h 3-0 including a win in Kuala Lumpur this year and at 2.25 + to beat the number six seed, is a very tempting bet and my second selection of the opening day. LOST in three close sets
Also in this group of 32 are Andrea Petkovic who is having a great year and whilst she has no real history here, she has gone deepish in the other three slams and could be dangerous, the lower half is packed full of potential, with last year's quarter finalist Kaia Kanepi who won seven matches in this tournament after coming through qualifying, the hugely gifted Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who is a certain future slam winner IMO, Daniela Hantuchova and another big talent in Victoria Azarenka. Pavlyuchenkova is a player I want to keep on my side, it is a shame we didn't see more of her at Eastbourne, she lost early to Jovanovski who was battle hardened after coming through qualification and the Russian was sluggish, but is "really looking forward to Wimbledon". This is a learning section, if pushed AP at cica 9.0 + would be my choice, we might never see quotes like that to win a section in a slam again after this year and at 50-1 she is a dark horse who could go well, but will be vunerable in the opening round or two.
Talking of dark horses, I might have found one in Vitalia Diatchenko who meets Hantuchova today and is available at 7.50 + to win the match. The 20 yo Russian has come through qualification without losing a set so will be at home on grass and has recently moved to Ireland for training, so will be used to the rain and signed two sponsorship deals, which is good news for a player no one has heard of. You know that I like Hantuchova and she has both won and lost when we wanted her to recently, which is great, but consistency is not her strong point and she might not be 100% fit today, she had to withdraw last week with an abdomen injury and said this ...."It happened at 3-0 in the first set. I was running for a wide backhand and felt a sharp pain, and it was just getting worse and worse from then. I'll hope for some magic and get as much treatment as I can. I'm seeing the doctor now and as soon as I go to Wimbledon I'll work with the physios. I'll try to do something to be able to be ready for Monday.
Such massive odds are surely worth a try under the circumstances. Diatchenko took the first set and lost the second in a tie break
Last up is the fourth quarter, which has Venus , Jelena Jankovic and Mad Vera in the bottom half and apart from Svetlana Kuznetsova, who disappointed big time at Roland Garros, only last year's semi finalist Petra Kvitova in the top section. Kvitova did us a good favour last week and is more and more at home on grass, she has a lot of ranking points to defend, so will be desperate to go deep again and looks a better player this time round. I would only be concerened if she had to play a Venus Williams who had dispelled all fitness doubts and the american has a lot of tough hurdles to overcome before the quarters and I feel that at circa 3.50 Kvitova can repeat and make the last four once again.
Finally, Pinnacle Sports have a big looking 2.18 for Sharapova to go further than Serena Williams, I much prefer the section the Russian player is in and would make her odds on to win this bet, despite being Serena's biggest fan.
Good Luck.
TUESDAY JUNE 21ST
No highlighted selection for me today, but I do have two matches to discuss, where I feel both outsiders are a little big.
Angelique Kerber - Laura Robson
Two left handed players is going to make for a very interesting match up. I am at Wimbledon today and just saw Robson and was shocked, she has sprouted up and must be six foot, maybe a little taller. One journalist told me that this growth spurt, as much as some early season injury problems was why her career had stalled. Robson won Junior Wimbledon in 2008 when she was the youngest girl in the tournament, a tremendous achievement, she also played two Australian Open finals as a Junior, but probably turned pro too soon and her ATP career has yet to take off. However, she is still only 17 years old and has time on her side, last week she sacked her french coach after serving 13 double faults in a defeat in Holland, which must have been a fun conversation !
Robson has a big serve, which is a dangerous weapon here if she can keep the df's at bay and an all round game perfect for modern day grass court play, the two met in a challenger on an indoor hardcourt when Robson was just 14 and the German won a really close three set battle, this is a match, a fit, confident Robson would win with a degree of comfort IMO on this surface, but she is far from that. However, the crowd will be behind her and if she can come close to the level which almost saw her eliminate Jelena Jankovic here last year, she can go close and at circa 2.625 she is certainly the only one I could bet in this match, but she does have problems. ROBSON WON
Sanja Mirza - Virginie Razzano
Mirza has a few grass court wins under her belt, but despite being a huge star in India, is pretty much a journeywoman player, who tends to beat whom she should beat and loses when she meets a higher ranked player, she is also becoming more and more a doubles specialist. She has played a lot of clay court tennis recently ( by her normal standards) and has complained about coming to terms with grass for such a short season under the circumstances, she lost twice to Tamira Paszek on grass in teh last fortnight and she is no force on the surface and Razzano would win this IMO if her head was in the right place. However, her fiancee died recently from a brain tumour and despite continuing to play, it is hard to know how long it will take her to get over such a traumatic experience. In 2009 the frenchwoman made the final in Eastbourne and the 4th round here, beating Bartoli , Dementieva and the older Radwanska sister in the process, an impressive bunch of scalps on any surface, but especially grass. She got her ranking as low as 16 after that, which shows her potential and at 2.50 +.. 2.625 in a place she looks big, but who knows what her mental state will be. RAZZANO WON
Robson and Razzano probably need to stay in touch with their opponent early, if they do, a return to the scene of her biggest triumph and a chance to lose herself for a couple of hours respectively, might bring out the best in them.
Wednesday looks a much better betting day.
Good Luck.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 22ND
Wimbledon tennis has been pretty good so far, Jelena Dokic was well on top for most of her game against Francesca Sciavone and I would be keen to bet her again today, if they were to replay that match this afternoon. Diatchenko, who was a massive 8.0 + took the first set and only lost the second in a very close tie break, the Russian youngster had a huge 19 break points in that match and I would not rush to back Daniela Hantuchova until she has 100% proved her well being. Virginie Razzano won and the Stepanek-Verdasco match up went "over" with ease, so we have been pretty much spot on across the board so far, with not too much luck. The Laura Robson match has been held over until today.
Not much to take my fancy on the Ladies today, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova won her first round match but it was a bit laboured, she faces a tough second round match with Nadia Petrova today, if Nastia had one more match on the surface under her belt I would be very tempted to take the -3 games with Pinnacle Sport for her to cover the handicap at circa 2.0, but as I explained in my pre tournament notes, she will be vunerable through the opening round or two, after which I expect her to be strong. Having said that, Petrova at 29 yo is not getting any better and lost to a clearly out of sorts Samantha Stosur in straight sets at Eastbourne in the first round. I would not put any of you off taking a little on this handicap bet, but I will take a watching brief, we will know a lot more about Nastia on grass after today, but whatever happpens, we will make money on her on hardcourts this summer.
I like the "over" games in the Rainer Schuettler - Feliciano Lopez match. Schuettler is very much in the twilight of his career at 35 years old, but made the semis here as recently as 2008, he had a straight sets win over the seeded Thomaz Belluci in the first round, making few errors and serving well, especially on second serve, he is very shrewd and had good tactics really going after the brazilian on second serve returns. Lopez is a two time quarter finalist here and sereved really well at Queens, he dropped only five points on first serve and gave up no break points in his first round defeat of Berrer, so this match will be all about the serve and I feel we will see plenty of free points. Lopez's last six matches on the surface have seen every first set go to 10 + games, with four going to at least 12 games, something similar is surely on the cards today and will set up the "over" bet nicely. The two have met once previously at the All England Club, way back in 2002 when they played out a four set 42 game match, their most recent outdoor fast court meeting ( last year) also went the distance in three close sets. Lopez should progress, but in four sets at least.... 1.5 units "over" 39 games 1.847 Pinnacle. WON
Good Luck.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Sunday, June 19, 2011
UPDATE ....
Please check your inbox if you are on my occasional mailing list, about half of you have just been sent my notes for the opening day at Wimbledon, which includes selections at odds of 2.25 and 1.87 ( double stake) and suggestions at odds of 7.50, 9.0 ( twice), 2.18, 3.50 and 51.0 !
It runs to some 1700 words and is an entertaining read if I do say so myself.
Good Luck.
It runs to some 1700 words and is an entertaining read if I do say so myself.
Good Luck.
SUNDAY ....
I have been a big supporter of Granada in the last six weeks or so and wrote my first blog post about them early last month ( see link), they were still available to win the playoffs at circa 3.50 a little over a week ago and got the job completed with a 1-1 draw at Elche last night. That means La Liga next season and visits from Barcelona and Real Madrid for a team that were playing 4th tier football just five years ago and I hope that some of you got involved and won a little money.
A few basic words about today's action .....
The Concacaf Gold Cup continues tonight, the USA have failed to impress so far, but almost always play Mexico in the final regardless of what happens en route, they also have a fantastic record against Jamaica who are admittedly playing well, never having lost in 17 previous meetings. However, the US have been priced very short and a word of caution, both Landon Donavan and Clint Dempsey were allowed to leave camp and attend weddings yesterday, flying back late last night and we are not talking short distances, the game is in Washington and the weddings were in California and Texas respectively, that is a lot of air miles for a one day trip, regardless of whether you are flying in a private jet or not !
US Open Golf: Rory McIlroy is playing out of his skin and is getting expensive to oppose. I do not like to "chase" money, but I have to go against him again today, he holds an eight shot lead going into the last 18 holes and will be delighted to win the tournament, which would be his first major, by half that margin, or even less. He blew a huge lead at Augusta and I don't care how well he is playing and he is, he would not be normal if he wasn't really worried about a repeat and I feel he will be very conservative today. YE Yang was very solid yesterday but little dropped for him putting wise, he is still in second place and if you did not take the 5.0 yesterday for him without McIlroy, I would suggest getting involved today in that market, he is circa 5.20 ( one unit) on the exchanges and that is a good price for someone who virtually admitted he is only playing for second spot. Other "contenders" like Lee Westwood are loathe to give up on the win and might be forced to gamble a little too much on a dangerous golf course.
Of the top ten, Westwood has played the closing holes best of all, being five under for the last five holes, Jason Day is two over and Freddie Jacobsen three over over the same sequence of holes. Westwood is paired with Day and several companies are bound to be betting in running, which could be interesting
Robert Garrigus and Jacobsen are the worst Round 4 players amongst the top ten challengers and are paired together too, this is Garrigus first major and he could be nervous, but probably harbours no dreams of winning this and would be happy with a top 3 place, he is two under for the last five holes, five strokes better than the swede and could also be worthwhile watching "in running", if that option is available. I also think he is decent value to beat Jacobsen in his two ball at 2.25, FJ far too often undoes good early work at the business end of tournaments.
A few basic words about today's action .....
The Concacaf Gold Cup continues tonight, the USA have failed to impress so far, but almost always play Mexico in the final regardless of what happens en route, they also have a fantastic record against Jamaica who are admittedly playing well, never having lost in 17 previous meetings. However, the US have been priced very short and a word of caution, both Landon Donavan and Clint Dempsey were allowed to leave camp and attend weddings yesterday, flying back late last night and we are not talking short distances, the game is in Washington and the weddings were in California and Texas respectively, that is a lot of air miles for a one day trip, regardless of whether you are flying in a private jet or not !
US Open Golf: Rory McIlroy is playing out of his skin and is getting expensive to oppose. I do not like to "chase" money, but I have to go against him again today, he holds an eight shot lead going into the last 18 holes and will be delighted to win the tournament, which would be his first major, by half that margin, or even less. He blew a huge lead at Augusta and I don't care how well he is playing and he is, he would not be normal if he wasn't really worried about a repeat and I feel he will be very conservative today. YE Yang was very solid yesterday but little dropped for him putting wise, he is still in second place and if you did not take the 5.0 yesterday for him without McIlroy, I would suggest getting involved today in that market, he is circa 5.20 ( one unit) on the exchanges and that is a good price for someone who virtually admitted he is only playing for second spot. Other "contenders" like Lee Westwood are loathe to give up on the win and might be forced to gamble a little too much on a dangerous golf course.
Of the top ten, Westwood has played the closing holes best of all, being five under for the last five holes, Jason Day is two over and Freddie Jacobsen three over over the same sequence of holes. Westwood is paired with Day and several companies are bound to be betting in running, which could be interesting
Robert Garrigus and Jacobsen are the worst Round 4 players amongst the top ten challengers and are paired together too, this is Garrigus first major and he could be nervous, but probably harbours no dreams of winning this and would be happy with a top 3 place, he is two under for the last five holes, five strokes better than the swede and could also be worthwhile watching "in running", if that option is available. I also think he is decent value to beat Jacobsen in his two ball at 2.25, FJ far too often undoes good early work at the business end of tournaments.
However, my best bet of the day has to be Yang to beat McIlroy, he is odds against with the tie no bet option and up to 2.625 with the tie ( 1.5 units), you might find bigger later in the day. Unless the Ulsterman picks up a shot or two early , he is surely going to get increasingly cautions through his round and could easily find himself in a position where he is "happy" to finish bogey, bogey, bogey and still ease home, why take too many chances , with such a huge prize on offer ?
Good Luck.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
TUESDAY ....
WTA TOUR EASTBOURNE TENNIS
Some very interesting match ups at this early stage of the tournament and I would like to briefly talk about four of them....
Going to start with Kaia Kanepi verses Francesca Schiavone, grass is not really the italian's surface, she is just about 50-50 lifetime on grass and lost in the first round at both Eastbourne and Wimbledon last year to Cirstea and Dushevina taking just one set in the process. Both are inferior to the tall big serving estonian on the surface and with Schiavone once again coming here after another emotional roller coaster ride at Roland Garros and a very tough fortnight and with no ranking points to defend, in what is a low ranking warm up event, for a tournament she probably feels she has no chance in, quite why the french finalist has been made favourite is something of a mystery. Kanepi won 12 matches on grass last year winning through qualifying at both Birmingham and Wimbledon, losing in the quarter finals in each, she has recently changed coach and is I understand very comfortable with the new arrangement and feels her game has improved. Schiavone holds a 3-1 lifetime h2h lead, but they have never met on the surface and the only recent meeting which game on a fast indoor court, went the distance and to 34 tough games, there should be plenty of "free" service points on offer for Kanepi, who was bombing them down in the early rounds of Roland Garros and all in all she is much better suited to playing on the green stuff.
1.5 units Kaia Kanepi to win 2.10 +
Serena Williams makes her return today and faces Tsvetana Pironkova. Williams has not played since winning Wimbledon last year and is bound to be a little rusty after 12 months at home, her sister also made her long awaited comeback yersterday and took three long sets to dispose of Andrea Petkovic and Venus had "only" been out since January. A fit Serena would blow the bulgarian off court, but might want to ease herself in and play a few games today, the weather forecast is nice and sunny and conditions should be perfect down in Eastbourne. Pironkova is having a terrible year ( 4-16), but made the semi-finals at Wimbledon last year, beating Venus and Bartoli two of the strongest players on tour on grass, both in straight sets enroute and gave up just a combined seven break points in the process, earning 24 herself, with Tsvetana serving at a similar speed and level to Venus which is just about as good as it gets. Obviously she is no mug on the surface and will never get a better opportunity to push possibly the greatest player of all time, definitely the best ever athlete on tour."Over" games look to have been priced pretty low to me.
1.5 units "Over" 20 games 1.90 +
I was terribly impressed with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at Roland Garros, she looks a certain future Grand Slam winner in waiting, whether that will come on grass I do not know, but we will know more after this week and I would love to watch her game with qualifier Bojana Jovanovski this afternoon. The young Serbian will be battle hardened with three rounds of qualification under her belt and should give the ultra talented AP a good run out.
Lucie Safarova must be unhappy to be facing Marion Bartoli at this early stage, the frenchwoman was thrilled by her surprise run to the semi finals in Paris and was originally treating her national open as more of a warm up event for the grass court season, her highlight of the year. Safarova rarely comes to the UK and is 4-7 here on grass, with only one victory of note and that coming against a very young Pavlyuchenkova who is still only 19 btw. Only danger for Bartoli is that her extended run at Roland Garros might have held up her preparation for grass, so I would not rush to take 1.35, but she really ought to win this.
All in all a fine day's action and a lot to learn, hopefully it will be possible to watch most of these and I will try to update my notes tomorrow.
Good Luck.
Some very interesting match ups at this early stage of the tournament and I would like to briefly talk about four of them....
Going to start with Kaia Kanepi verses Francesca Schiavone, grass is not really the italian's surface, she is just about 50-50 lifetime on grass and lost in the first round at both Eastbourne and Wimbledon last year to Cirstea and Dushevina taking just one set in the process. Both are inferior to the tall big serving estonian on the surface and with Schiavone once again coming here after another emotional roller coaster ride at Roland Garros and a very tough fortnight and with no ranking points to defend, in what is a low ranking warm up event, for a tournament she probably feels she has no chance in, quite why the french finalist has been made favourite is something of a mystery. Kanepi won 12 matches on grass last year winning through qualifying at both Birmingham and Wimbledon, losing in the quarter finals in each, she has recently changed coach and is I understand very comfortable with the new arrangement and feels her game has improved. Schiavone holds a 3-1 lifetime h2h lead, but they have never met on the surface and the only recent meeting which game on a fast indoor court, went the distance and to 34 tough games, there should be plenty of "free" service points on offer for Kanepi, who was bombing them down in the early rounds of Roland Garros and all in all she is much better suited to playing on the green stuff.
1.5 units Kaia Kanepi to win 2.10 +
Serena Williams makes her return today and faces Tsvetana Pironkova. Williams has not played since winning Wimbledon last year and is bound to be a little rusty after 12 months at home, her sister also made her long awaited comeback yersterday and took three long sets to dispose of Andrea Petkovic and Venus had "only" been out since January. A fit Serena would blow the bulgarian off court, but might want to ease herself in and play a few games today, the weather forecast is nice and sunny and conditions should be perfect down in Eastbourne. Pironkova is having a terrible year ( 4-16), but made the semi-finals at Wimbledon last year, beating Venus and Bartoli two of the strongest players on tour on grass, both in straight sets enroute and gave up just a combined seven break points in the process, earning 24 herself, with Tsvetana serving at a similar speed and level to Venus which is just about as good as it gets. Obviously she is no mug on the surface and will never get a better opportunity to push possibly the greatest player of all time, definitely the best ever athlete on tour."Over" games look to have been priced pretty low to me.
1.5 units "Over" 20 games 1.90 +
I was terribly impressed with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at Roland Garros, she looks a certain future Grand Slam winner in waiting, whether that will come on grass I do not know, but we will know more after this week and I would love to watch her game with qualifier Bojana Jovanovski this afternoon. The young Serbian will be battle hardened with three rounds of qualification under her belt and should give the ultra talented AP a good run out.
Lucie Safarova must be unhappy to be facing Marion Bartoli at this early stage, the frenchwoman was thrilled by her surprise run to the semi finals in Paris and was originally treating her national open as more of a warm up event for the grass court season, her highlight of the year. Safarova rarely comes to the UK and is 4-7 here on grass, with only one victory of note and that coming against a very young Pavlyuchenkova who is still only 19 btw. Only danger for Bartoli is that her extended run at Roland Garros might have held up her preparation for grass, so I would not rush to take 1.35, but she really ought to win this.
All in all a fine day's action and a lot to learn, hopefully it will be possible to watch most of these and I will try to update my notes tomorrow.
Good Luck.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
TAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY NOTES ....
QUEENS CLUB TENNIS
Two matches to discuss Kevin Anderson - Donald Young and Andy Murray- Xavier Malisse, I think these are ideal for the "new" format, in which I can talk about events/ideas without the pressure of putting up a selection, if these thoughts coincide with your own, then maybe you will want to get involved.
Anderson and Young have met seven times previously, six were on fast courts, although none on grass, Young won the first three and Anderson the last four, five went the distance and at least one set contained a tie break in each. Anderson had a fine opening round win over Karlovic in which he didn't allow his huge serving opponent a single break point, given how quick the courts are here this year, that was very impressive.
Young lost his way and was, perhaps, a victim of too much hype, he was going to be the saviour of US tennis and turned pro at a very young age, too young and has struggled to retain a place in the top 100, however, he is still only 21 years old and a lot of these US players mature a little later than their european and south american counterparts. He was the youngest male to ever win a junior grand slam title and also won the junior championship at Wimbledon in 2007, that comes a something of a shock, as before labouring past Andreas Haider- Maurer in the first round on Monday in 31 games, he was 0-5 on grass in London on the ATP tour. Having said that, a win is a win and he might take heart from both that and a recent defeat of Andy Murray in Indian Wells, his first really big win over a top ranked player.
Anderson should win and is very short odds, but these two know each other well and I don't doubt that Young has more room for improvement, he could keep this close and "over" games or the South African to win in three sets at circa 4.33 ( bigger on the exchanges for tiny stakes) makes some appeal.
Murray is still struggling a little with his injury and with Wimbledon just around the corner, will not take any chances, he was said not to be moving well in practice on Monday, but did play doubles with his brother yesterday, which he would not have done if the ankle was a major concern ( they actually lost to Malisse and his partner in straight sets), he will wear strapping and take some medication before playing this afternoon. Malisse is another player who lost his way and has not always appeared the most committed on tour, but is talented, seems re-dedicated over the last 12 months and has got himself back into the top 50. He is a former Wimbledon semi-finalist and has gone deep here a couple of times, including last year when he beat Novak Djokovic en route to the quarter finals. He is fully capable of taking advantage of any weakness in Murray's game and looks on the big side @ 6.60, I would definitely urge caution if thinking of taking skinny odds about the british number one.
Good Luck.
Two matches to discuss Kevin Anderson - Donald Young and Andy Murray- Xavier Malisse, I think these are ideal for the "new" format, in which I can talk about events/ideas without the pressure of putting up a selection, if these thoughts coincide with your own, then maybe you will want to get involved.
Anderson and Young have met seven times previously, six were on fast courts, although none on grass, Young won the first three and Anderson the last four, five went the distance and at least one set contained a tie break in each. Anderson had a fine opening round win over Karlovic in which he didn't allow his huge serving opponent a single break point, given how quick the courts are here this year, that was very impressive.
Young lost his way and was, perhaps, a victim of too much hype, he was going to be the saviour of US tennis and turned pro at a very young age, too young and has struggled to retain a place in the top 100, however, he is still only 21 years old and a lot of these US players mature a little later than their european and south american counterparts. He was the youngest male to ever win a junior grand slam title and also won the junior championship at Wimbledon in 2007, that comes a something of a shock, as before labouring past Andreas Haider- Maurer in the first round on Monday in 31 games, he was 0-5 on grass in London on the ATP tour. Having said that, a win is a win and he might take heart from both that and a recent defeat of Andy Murray in Indian Wells, his first really big win over a top ranked player.
Anderson should win and is very short odds, but these two know each other well and I don't doubt that Young has more room for improvement, he could keep this close and "over" games or the South African to win in three sets at circa 4.33 ( bigger on the exchanges for tiny stakes) makes some appeal.
Murray is still struggling a little with his injury and with Wimbledon just around the corner, will not take any chances, he was said not to be moving well in practice on Monday, but did play doubles with his brother yesterday, which he would not have done if the ankle was a major concern ( they actually lost to Malisse and his partner in straight sets), he will wear strapping and take some medication before playing this afternoon. Malisse is another player who lost his way and has not always appeared the most committed on tour, but is talented, seems re-dedicated over the last 12 months and has got himself back into the top 50. He is a former Wimbledon semi-finalist and has gone deep here a couple of times, including last year when he beat Novak Djokovic en route to the quarter finals. He is fully capable of taking advantage of any weakness in Murray's game and looks on the big side @ 6.60, I would definitely urge caution if thinking of taking skinny odds about the british number one.
Good Luck.
TAKEN FROM TUESDAY NOTES ....
The closest I could come to a bet was the"over" in Panama - Guadelope, the pair met in the competition two years ago at this satge, with Guadelope winning 2-1. There was some very naive defending on both sides that day and whilst Panama were the better team and will doubtless be out for some revenge, they were troubled by the long range shooting and pace of their opponents. Tough group here, with Canada and the US seemingly booked for the next stage, so surely both will come looking for the three points.
SPAIN LIGA ADELANTE PLAY-OFFS
The "Segunda" play-offs get underway tomorrow ( wednesday) when Celta entertain Grenada, Elche travel to Valladoid the next night, with the return legs played over the weekend. Only three points separated these four during the regular season, but I have already thrown my hat firmly into the Granada camp and I remain confident, my original post is reproduced below.
Granada ended the year much stronger than Celta collecting 13 points more in the second half of the campaign and only lost one of six regular season starts against their play-off rivals, that came early season at home to Valladoilid and gained revenge with a 3-2 victory in the return fixture. They drew both meetings with Celta and would doubtless accept that result again in what is sure to be a tight first leg. Hosts have won only nine home games all season the fewest in the top half of the table and conceded 23 home goals, the most amongst the top seven. Eight of those nine wins came in their first 12 starts and they are 1-3-5 on home soil since early February. Feel this is a good fixture for Granada, really like them to win the playoofs and therefore have to be pleased getting a full half ball start at Celta and we have to take some of that !
Granada +0.5 ball 1.87 ( Wednesday)
Good Luck.
SPAIN LIGA ADELANTE PLAY-OFFS
The "Segunda" play-offs get underway tomorrow ( wednesday) when Celta entertain Grenada, Elche travel to Valladoid the next night, with the return legs played over the weekend. Only three points separated these four during the regular season, but I have already thrown my hat firmly into the Granada camp and I remain confident, my original post is reproduced below.
Granada ended the year much stronger than Celta collecting 13 points more in the second half of the campaign and only lost one of six regular season starts against their play-off rivals, that came early season at home to Valladoilid and gained revenge with a 3-2 victory in the return fixture. They drew both meetings with Celta and would doubtless accept that result again in what is sure to be a tight first leg. Hosts have won only nine home games all season the fewest in the top half of the table and conceded 23 home goals, the most amongst the top seven. Eight of those nine wins came in their first 12 starts and they are 1-3-5 on home soil since early February. Feel this is a good fixture for Granada, really like them to win the playoofs and therefore have to be pleased getting a full half ball start at Celta and we have to take some of that !
Granada +0.5 ball 1.87 ( Wednesday)
Good Luck.
Sunday, May 29, 2011
SUNDAY .... IT'S A FUNNY OLD GAME !
Barcelona and Stevenage Borough both got the job done yesterday and whilst it is tough to find too many similarities between the two clubs, neither are a team you want to be chasing the game against, albeit for very different reasons.
Graham Westley has his detractors, quite a lot actually, but all credit to him and his players for getting consecutive promotions and showing what can be achieved with a positive attitude and a lot of hard work.
His team will be in the same division as both Sheffield clubs next season which is incredible given their respective budgets and supporter base. As recently as 2007, both Sheffield United and Charlton Athletic were in the EPL and Borough ended that season upper midtable in the Conference, now they will be facing each other in the league, exciting times at Broadhall Way.
Actually, in 2005-06 the Conference contained Stevenage and Exeter who will both be in the third tier next season, Dagenham who played in League 1 this season and Accrington who came up short in the League 2 semi final and another four in Crawley, Aldershot, Burton and Hereford all set to play in the Football League next season. It is a pretty fine line between League 1 and the Conference in terms of ability, but finances and crowd base usually catches up with the real overachievers eventually and on the flip side, almost always enables the bigger clubs to return to their true position.
It is incredible that teams like the Blades, Wednesday, Norwich City, Leicester City, Southampton, Leeds United and Nottingham have all played in the third tier of english football in the last four years, whilst tiny Wigan have been in the top flight for six, soon to be seven seasons . It's a funny old game !
Good Luck.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
SATURDAY ....
I have not posted on the blog this week, tennis is big for me in the summer months and I have been watching the action from Roland Garros all day every day, which has left little time for anything else.
The weekend's sporting action is, of course, dominated by the Champions League final tonight and is a mouth watering prospect that we are all eagerly anticipating and will doubtless be disappointed by, sorry, but that is normally the way of these things, but hopefully I will be wrong and we will witness a classic.
Elsewhere we see the completion of the Football League playoffs and all the drama they bring, I will preview the first of these below and also include my pre semi final playoff notes for three other leagues, one of these is already decided ( Ayr United) which has paid for the other two positions, but you may find all of interest ahead of the finals and next season. BTW, these were the only three outright playoff positions I took.
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFFS
I saw Reading play at Millwall early season and picked them out that night as a likely promotion contender, it took an extended FA Cup run to really kick start their season, with wins over EPL teams WBA and Everton and holding Manchester City for 74 minutes in the quarter final , giving them the confidence to launch a big end of season push. They lost just one of their final 16 starts and even that came late in the campaign when their chance of automatic promotion had gone, in a match against a desperate Sheffield United, they were coasting at 2-0 and heading for what looked a 4-5 goal victory, when a mad ten minutes cost them a fairly meaningless game. They still collected 35 points in the final third of the season, five more than Swansea, seven greater than playoff semi final opponent Cardiff and a whopping 13 more than Nottingham Forest.
Swansea are a very nice footballing side, but are the only one of the four semi finalists without any recent playoff experience and have struggled on the road, losing more away starts than any others team in the top nine. With two of their potentially three remaining games away from their fortress Liberty Stadium that is a concern and I prefer teams with more of a cutting edge at this stage and like Arsenal, City too often opt for one more sideways pass when a more probing ball would serve them better.
Cardiff had an automatic promotion spot there for the taking earlier in the campaign ,but did regroup and push Norwich hard entering this month, however, they came up short and the 3-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough last week when a win would have put huge pressure on the Canaries, who were playing later that day in a difficult away fixture, convinced me that they do not have the stomach for this battle, boss Dave Jones has looked increasingly rattled over the last month and I do not see him as a calming dressing room influence.
Forest once again lost their way entering the business end of the campaign, but did come on strong at the end of the season to reclaim a post season spot which looked to have slipped from their grasp. I suppose we should give them credit for that, but they have the worst away record of all four contenders, scoring just 26 road goals all season and that is going to put them under immense pressure to get a result tonight at home to Swansea. They have created just 464 attempts on goal all season , an average of four per game less than Swansea and having not got past this stage in three previous attempts, they are not a side I would want to back or trust. So, it is Reading for me.
The Royals have lost only five road starts all season and conceded just 26 goals, they keep the ball well and have plenty of offensive options, especially out wide with McAnuff and Kebe a match for any defenders at this level and have the promising Antonio and Robson- Kanu waiting in the wings, infact, Reading have cover in almost every position and are a very well run club from top to bottom. They have two classy goalkeepers, a much vaunted striker in Shane Long, the evergreen Ian Harte making the Championship team of the season and holding midfielder Mikele Leigertwood who has been sensational ,the Berkshire club are desperate to make his loan deal from QPR permanent whatever division they are playing in next season and should try to make it hapen, Reading are simply a better team when he plays.
The Championship playoffs have tended to be won by the team finishing the season strongest in recent years, with five of the last seven winners namely Crystal Palace 2004 (12th place) , West Ham 2005 (7th), Hull 2008 ( 8th) , Burnley 2009 ( 9th) and Blackpool last year ( 8th) all outside the top six with a dozen games to play. Reading were down in tenth 12 games back, six points off the pace and are looking to frank these very strong form lines.
Cardiff might have the strongest starting eleven, but their backline looks decidely dodgy at times and no team has the options or form that the Royals have coming into the post season and they are my idea of the likeliest winners.
1.5 units Reading to win outright 3.75 + ..... up to 3.90 on the exchages for small money.
LEAGUE 1 PLAY-OFFS
Huddersfield must be feeling a little hard done by, their total of 87 points would have seen them promoted in all but one of the previous ten seasons at this level and to have entered the New Year just one point off the automatic promotion places and go unbeaten for the rest of the season is not just unbelievable, but downright cruel !
They have collected 51 points in the second half of the season, that is 19 more than Bournemouth, which extended over a full camapign would have seen them finish first and 12th respectively in any "normal" season. I expect that difference to be apparent over the two legs and for Town to earn a deserved trip to Manchester for the final which will take place at Old Trafford with Wembley hosting the Champions League final. Bournemouth have shown great team spirit and fight to hang on in there after losing their two best players and coach this season, but the last few months have seen them falter and they were fortunate in the end to hold on to a top six spot.The other semi is a coin flip in my opinon with both teams very evenly matched. However, neither has the defensive capabilities of Town and even Peterborough, with 106 goals this season would not match up with the Terriers front men on a going day. Talented boss Lee Clark has the option to rotate five very good strikers at the club, with players of the calibre of Jordan Rhodes 46 goals in 61 starts and Lee Novak 17 in 38, not always certain of a starting place, Rhodes would walk into the starting eleven of any other third tier team with the exception of Southampton and they are now in the Championship ! Town learned a lot from their two playoff games with Millwall last year and I know that they are very relieved to be opening on the road this time round. Only MK Dons of the other three contenders has any recent playoff experience and that was with a much changed squad and completely different backroom team. Town are potentially a big club with big ambitions and are already planning for next season, with some important contract issues settled in the last week, it is a very different situation at Peterbourough for example where the three best players look on their way out of the club, even if promotion is achieved. Recent experience and form all point to Town, who were the third best team this season by some way and they look very worthy favourites to get the job done this time, btw, they have the "indian sign" on Dons who they are probably hoping to meet in the final, having put seven past them in the two league games this season and four last, winning all four meetings.
1.5 units Huddersfield to win the League 1 playoffs 2.75 ( P Power/ Hills .... should also see this on the exchanges tomorrow ) and 2.80 Unibet.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 PLAYOFFS
FORFAR ATHLETIC - AYR UNITED
I am keen on United to progress through this two legged tie and to go on and book a quick return to the First Division following relegation last season, they had previously gone up through the playoff system in 2009 so know what to expect and look the strongest of the four sides. They are definitely the biggest club, with arguably the best starting eleven, who should be well rested after most were given a day off at the weekend with second place already assured. They took a little while to get a settled side this season, but really started to find the net in the last month or so, beating playoff rivals Forfar 3-1 and Brechin City 3-0, City might claim to have got some revenge on saturday, with a 1-0 victory, but United had nothing to play for and fielded a team mainly made up of youngsters. They also suffered a recent 3-2 loss here in the league, where they led twice and then conceded a late own goal and will be confident of getting a result tonight against a team who were expected to struggle this season after promotion last year, when they were two divisions below United. Hosts will have 18 yo Neil Duffy between the sticks, he is on loan from St Johnstone and has plenty of promise, but has only made five career starts and that is far from ideal in such a big game, against an opponent with goals in them. United also got a massive boost off the pitch this week, when Bodog agreed a sponsorship deal with the club, this is unheard of at this level and could lead to bigger things for the cash strapped club ,with Bodog owner Calvin Ayre having links to the area. I am going to split two units between Ayr with the handicap start tonight and them to win promotion.
Ayr United +0.25 ball 1.86 IBC
Ayr United to win Division 2 Playoffs 3.60 + (Boyle/Hills) ...3.75 Stan James/ Bet Fred.
LEAGUE 2 PLAY-OFF FINAL
STEVENAGE BOROUGH - TORQUAY UNITED
The weekend's sporting action is, of course, dominated by the Champions League final tonight and is a mouth watering prospect that we are all eagerly anticipating and will doubtless be disappointed by, sorry, but that is normally the way of these things, but hopefully I will be wrong and we will witness a classic.
Elsewhere we see the completion of the Football League playoffs and all the drama they bring, I will preview the first of these below and also include my pre semi final playoff notes for three other leagues, one of these is already decided ( Ayr United) which has paid for the other two positions, but you may find all of interest ahead of the finals and next season. BTW, these were the only three outright playoff positions I took.
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFFS
I saw Reading play at Millwall early season and picked them out that night as a likely promotion contender, it took an extended FA Cup run to really kick start their season, with wins over EPL teams WBA and Everton and holding Manchester City for 74 minutes in the quarter final , giving them the confidence to launch a big end of season push. They lost just one of their final 16 starts and even that came late in the campaign when their chance of automatic promotion had gone, in a match against a desperate Sheffield United, they were coasting at 2-0 and heading for what looked a 4-5 goal victory, when a mad ten minutes cost them a fairly meaningless game. They still collected 35 points in the final third of the season, five more than Swansea, seven greater than playoff semi final opponent Cardiff and a whopping 13 more than Nottingham Forest.
Swansea are a very nice footballing side, but are the only one of the four semi finalists without any recent playoff experience and have struggled on the road, losing more away starts than any others team in the top nine. With two of their potentially three remaining games away from their fortress Liberty Stadium that is a concern and I prefer teams with more of a cutting edge at this stage and like Arsenal, City too often opt for one more sideways pass when a more probing ball would serve them better.
Cardiff had an automatic promotion spot there for the taking earlier in the campaign ,but did regroup and push Norwich hard entering this month, however, they came up short and the 3-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough last week when a win would have put huge pressure on the Canaries, who were playing later that day in a difficult away fixture, convinced me that they do not have the stomach for this battle, boss Dave Jones has looked increasingly rattled over the last month and I do not see him as a calming dressing room influence.
Forest once again lost their way entering the business end of the campaign, but did come on strong at the end of the season to reclaim a post season spot which looked to have slipped from their grasp. I suppose we should give them credit for that, but they have the worst away record of all four contenders, scoring just 26 road goals all season and that is going to put them under immense pressure to get a result tonight at home to Swansea. They have created just 464 attempts on goal all season , an average of four per game less than Swansea and having not got past this stage in three previous attempts, they are not a side I would want to back or trust. So, it is Reading for me.
The Royals have lost only five road starts all season and conceded just 26 goals, they keep the ball well and have plenty of offensive options, especially out wide with McAnuff and Kebe a match for any defenders at this level and have the promising Antonio and Robson- Kanu waiting in the wings, infact, Reading have cover in almost every position and are a very well run club from top to bottom. They have two classy goalkeepers, a much vaunted striker in Shane Long, the evergreen Ian Harte making the Championship team of the season and holding midfielder Mikele Leigertwood who has been sensational ,the Berkshire club are desperate to make his loan deal from QPR permanent whatever division they are playing in next season and should try to make it hapen, Reading are simply a better team when he plays.
The Championship playoffs have tended to be won by the team finishing the season strongest in recent years, with five of the last seven winners namely Crystal Palace 2004 (12th place) , West Ham 2005 (7th), Hull 2008 ( 8th) , Burnley 2009 ( 9th) and Blackpool last year ( 8th) all outside the top six with a dozen games to play. Reading were down in tenth 12 games back, six points off the pace and are looking to frank these very strong form lines.
Cardiff might have the strongest starting eleven, but their backline looks decidely dodgy at times and no team has the options or form that the Royals have coming into the post season and they are my idea of the likeliest winners.
1.5 units Reading to win outright 3.75 + ..... up to 3.90 on the exchages for small money.
LEAGUE 1 PLAY-OFFS
Huddersfield must be feeling a little hard done by, their total of 87 points would have seen them promoted in all but one of the previous ten seasons at this level and to have entered the New Year just one point off the automatic promotion places and go unbeaten for the rest of the season is not just unbelievable, but downright cruel !
They have collected 51 points in the second half of the season, that is 19 more than Bournemouth, which extended over a full camapign would have seen them finish first and 12th respectively in any "normal" season. I expect that difference to be apparent over the two legs and for Town to earn a deserved trip to Manchester for the final which will take place at Old Trafford with Wembley hosting the Champions League final. Bournemouth have shown great team spirit and fight to hang on in there after losing their two best players and coach this season, but the last few months have seen them falter and they were fortunate in the end to hold on to a top six spot.The other semi is a coin flip in my opinon with both teams very evenly matched. However, neither has the defensive capabilities of Town and even Peterborough, with 106 goals this season would not match up with the Terriers front men on a going day. Talented boss Lee Clark has the option to rotate five very good strikers at the club, with players of the calibre of Jordan Rhodes 46 goals in 61 starts and Lee Novak 17 in 38, not always certain of a starting place, Rhodes would walk into the starting eleven of any other third tier team with the exception of Southampton and they are now in the Championship ! Town learned a lot from their two playoff games with Millwall last year and I know that they are very relieved to be opening on the road this time round. Only MK Dons of the other three contenders has any recent playoff experience and that was with a much changed squad and completely different backroom team. Town are potentially a big club with big ambitions and are already planning for next season, with some important contract issues settled in the last week, it is a very different situation at Peterbourough for example where the three best players look on their way out of the club, even if promotion is achieved. Recent experience and form all point to Town, who were the third best team this season by some way and they look very worthy favourites to get the job done this time, btw, they have the "indian sign" on Dons who they are probably hoping to meet in the final, having put seven past them in the two league games this season and four last, winning all four meetings.
1.5 units Huddersfield to win the League 1 playoffs 2.75 ( P Power/ Hills .... should also see this on the exchanges tomorrow ) and 2.80 Unibet.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 PLAYOFFS
FORFAR ATHLETIC - AYR UNITED
I am keen on United to progress through this two legged tie and to go on and book a quick return to the First Division following relegation last season, they had previously gone up through the playoff system in 2009 so know what to expect and look the strongest of the four sides. They are definitely the biggest club, with arguably the best starting eleven, who should be well rested after most were given a day off at the weekend with second place already assured. They took a little while to get a settled side this season, but really started to find the net in the last month or so, beating playoff rivals Forfar 3-1 and Brechin City 3-0, City might claim to have got some revenge on saturday, with a 1-0 victory, but United had nothing to play for and fielded a team mainly made up of youngsters. They also suffered a recent 3-2 loss here in the league, where they led twice and then conceded a late own goal and will be confident of getting a result tonight against a team who were expected to struggle this season after promotion last year, when they were two divisions below United. Hosts will have 18 yo Neil Duffy between the sticks, he is on loan from St Johnstone and has plenty of promise, but has only made five career starts and that is far from ideal in such a big game, against an opponent with goals in them. United also got a massive boost off the pitch this week, when Bodog agreed a sponsorship deal with the club, this is unheard of at this level and could lead to bigger things for the cash strapped club ,with Bodog owner Calvin Ayre having links to the area. I am going to split two units between Ayr with the handicap start tonight and them to win promotion.
Ayr United +0.25 ball 1.86 IBC
Ayr United to win Division 2 Playoffs 3.60 + (Boyle/Hills) ...3.75 Stan James/ Bet Fred.
LEAGUE 2 PLAY-OFF FINAL
STEVENAGE BOROUGH - TORQUAY UNITED
I have taken the direct quotes in this preview from the excellent Paul Fletcher blog on the BBC website.
United have come in for support over the last couple of days, that has caused Borough to ease out to odds against with the level ball option and I have to get involved at those odds.
Stevenage boss Graham Westley has made few friends this season with his tactics and win at all costs approach, we touched on this earlier in the season, his side are incredibly fit ( I will explain why later) and play at an extremely high tempo that few teams can match, even Boro cannot keep that up for 90 minutes and once they are ahead will resort to plan B, which is to stay down on the ground following any foul, sometimes for several minutes to enable the players to take on fluids and get new tactics from Westley. It is not pretty to watch and very annoying if you are the opponent, but no one can dispute it works and Boro are operating within the rules if not the spirit of the game. There were seven minutes of added time in the first half ( !) alone at Accrington in the second leg of the semi- final and that was never going to be a pretty spectacle with the visitors leading 2-0 from the home leg.
Westley has a business outside of the game called Aimita which stands for attitude is more important than ability, clearly his life mantra. He is not afraid of hard work and said this week "We always try our hardest to make sure we are better today than yesterday, and will be better tomorrow than today." His team train all day, not a morning session 3-4 days per week like most teams, but all day, five days per week. The team have breakfast together, stretching, running, gym work in the morning, lunch, then a "normal" training session football related and finish with more weight/ fitness work.
Last year this enabled them to march through the Conference which they won by 11 points. The players believe in Westley and his search for perfection and follow his every word to the letter. They took a while to get into their stride in their first season in the Football League and were 18th in mid January, but the heavier pitches and tired legs started to affect the other teams and Boro's fitness regime kicked in and they got stronger and stronger week after week, also boosted by a bit of a FA Cup thumping they administered to EPL side Newcastle United, which also showed that they can play a bit.
Veteran keeper Chris Day talked about the work ethic at the club and how they get stronger ... "There is a method that we work to, although I am not going to give those secrets away. I'm coming up to 36 now and I do wonder what I might have achieved in my career if I had worked like this from the start."
This is also a very tightly knit squad because of the long hours spent together and the team spirit and belief within the club is through the roof. Borough have also played two big FA Trophy finals at Wembley under Westley and whilst they are going to play this at Old Trafford in front of a handful of fans ( about 10,000 tickets had been sold a day or two ago), that big game experience will stand them in good stead.
The support for United is probably because a couple of Boro players are carrying knocks, but that has been the case for weeks and Westley is always likely to give out some misinformation, that is just the way he is. The squad is pretty interchangeable with no real stars and every single player will be prepared to play through the pain barrier for the boss and team mates.
The big open spaces of OT are going to find some of these players out today, but I believe the superior fitness and spirit of the Boro boys will see them home.
United boss Paul Buckle has had to comment on the Bristol Rovers job this week, he has said that he has not agreed to take it (yet), that is probably true, but I know for sure he has had extended talks with Rovers who are a much bigger club and that must be a little disruptive to his team. I have seen a soft underbelly to United away from Plainmoor on occasion and do not like that they have lost 29 points from winning positions this campaign, I feel they lack the mental strength of Stevenage whom I expect to be playing League 1 football next season.
Stevenage level ball 2.02
Good Luck.
Friday, May 20, 2011
FRIDAY ......
FRANCE LIGUE 2 ( Friday .... written Wednesday 21.00)
VANNES - LE MANS
TOURS - ANGERS
Round 36 in Ligue 2 saw a feast of goals, eight of the nine went "over", all contained at least two goals and seven produced four or more. Think that we might well see something similar this evening, especially with some tired, desperate legs on the pitch.
Vannes are four points from safety and will have to go all out for the three on offer tonight which might just keep them safe for another week. Le Mans who did us proud on Monday, have had a little less recovery time, but won with the minimum of fuss and need a win to keep them in the top 3. Anything else and Ajaccio, who host "safe" Istres are likely to climb above them and take promotion matters into their own hands heading into the final weekend of the season. As discussed previously, Le Mans are arguably the best team in the division and with a new stadium to fill and "easy" game next week, this is effectively for a return to the top flight. Away win and a small saver on four or more goals. Vannes have conceded three or more in five of their last eight and scored nine in their last four, including four at Le Havre last week, Le Mans have scored eight in their last three and whoever concedes first tonight is going to throw all caution to the wind.
The other fixture looks ripe to go "over", Tours are mathematically safe from relegation, can play with great freedom and are attack minded in any case, with 8 of their last 9 going "over" and five producing at least four goals. Angers still have a wafer thin chance of promotion, so will come looking for a fourth straight win, just in case the impossible happens, they are "over" in five from seven and the two shared four goals in the reverse fixture.
Le Mans -0.25 ball 2.05 +
0.5 units Vannes - Le Mans "over" 3.5 goals 3.40 + .... 3.50 in places.... not all odds released yet.
1.5 units Tours - Angers "over 2.5 goals 1.95 general quote.
Good Luck.
VANNES - LE MANS
TOURS - ANGERS
Round 36 in Ligue 2 saw a feast of goals, eight of the nine went "over", all contained at least two goals and seven produced four or more. Think that we might well see something similar this evening, especially with some tired, desperate legs on the pitch.
Vannes are four points from safety and will have to go all out for the three on offer tonight which might just keep them safe for another week. Le Mans who did us proud on Monday, have had a little less recovery time, but won with the minimum of fuss and need a win to keep them in the top 3. Anything else and Ajaccio, who host "safe" Istres are likely to climb above them and take promotion matters into their own hands heading into the final weekend of the season. As discussed previously, Le Mans are arguably the best team in the division and with a new stadium to fill and "easy" game next week, this is effectively for a return to the top flight. Away win and a small saver on four or more goals. Vannes have conceded three or more in five of their last eight and scored nine in their last four, including four at Le Havre last week, Le Mans have scored eight in their last three and whoever concedes first tonight is going to throw all caution to the wind.
The other fixture looks ripe to go "over", Tours are mathematically safe from relegation, can play with great freedom and are attack minded in any case, with 8 of their last 9 going "over" and five producing at least four goals. Angers still have a wafer thin chance of promotion, so will come looking for a fourth straight win, just in case the impossible happens, they are "over" in five from seven and the two shared four goals in the reverse fixture.
Le Mans -0.25 ball 2.05 +
0.5 units Vannes - Le Mans "over" 3.5 goals 3.40 + .... 3.50 in places.... not all odds released yet.
1.5 units Tours - Angers "over 2.5 goals 1.95 general quote.
Good Luck.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
WEDNESDAY .......
Regular and long term readers of the blog will be aware that Reading's 3-0 win at Cardiff last night was a very big result for me. I have been touting them as promotion contenders since last Autumn and writing up some outstanding reports for them in my "live"/ "in running" notes, where I focus greatly on the Championship fixtures.
When someone steps up to take a penalty, you can normally tell from their body language and especially the eyes, whether they are likely to score or not. I cannot recall anyone looking as calm or confident as the excellent Shane Long last night when he placed the ball on the spot, it was inconceivable to anyone watching and more importantly him, that the result was going to be anything other than a goal. Reading must be mightily relieved that he signed a one year contract extension in November, otherwise he would have been a free agent at the end of next month. A host of big clubs are monitoring the situation and the assured and talented Long will be an asset to the top flight. He is pretty "robust" too and made 45 league starts for the Royals this season, when he is a "target" for defenders week after week, that says as much about him and his attitude as his 21 league goals.
I have put up three bets for today and all are now trading at significantly lower odds, however, having promised to post something on the blog today, I have previewed one of the games below.
My notes for the Ayr game were written at 19.33 on Monday btw.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 PLAYOFF FINAL FIRST LEG ( Wednesday)
AYR UNITED - BRECHIN CITY
I should have put this bet up Monday morning, as the asian line of -0.25 2.05 was never going to hold up, however, I am still "happy" to bet at the slightly lower odds. We already have an outright bet from last week, reproduced below, otherwise, I would have rated it a stronger investment. As previously discussed, United lost one of the reverse fixtures on the last day of the season, but put out basically a B team and were resting players for the post season, City also won here on the opening day of the campaign, but Ayr were still building a side and only four players who played that day are likely to take any part tomorrow night. The two other games which came when both were fghting for a playoff spot were won by a 5-0 margin by Ayr, with United dominating both and being worthy of even bigger wins in both games. They look to have more goals in them than City, look solid at the back, former Leeds keeper Alan Martin who never quite made it at Elland Road and a settled centre back pairing gives them a far more solid look than they had early season and for the other reasons listed below they should be playing Division 1 football next season and definitely be taking a lead into the second leg.
Ayr United -0.25 ball 1.95 IBC..... currently trading at circa 1.80.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 PLAYOFFS
FORFAR ATHLETIC - AYR UNITED
I am keen on United to progress through this two legged tie and to go on and book a quick return to the First Division following relegation last season, they had previously gone up through the playoff system in 2009 so know what to expect and look the strongest of the four sides. They are definitely the biggest club, with arguably the best starting eleven, who should be well rested after most were given a day off at the weekend with second place already assured. They took a little while to get a settled side this season, but really started to find the net in the last month or so, beating playoff rivals Forfar 3-1 and Brechin City 3-0, City might claim to have got some revenge on saturday, with a 1-0 victory, but United had nothing to play for and fielded a team mainly made up of youngsters. They also suffered a recent 3-2 loss here in the league, where they led twice and then conceded a late own goal and will be confident of getting a result tonight against a team who were expected to struggle this season after promotion last year, when they were two divisions below United. Hosts will have 18 yo Neil Duffy between the sticks, he is on loan from St Johnstone and has plenty of promise, but has only made five career starts and that is far from ideal in such a big game, against an opponent with goals in them. United also got a massive boost off the pitch this week, when Bodog agreed a sponsorship deal with the club, this is unheard of at this level and could lead to bigger things for the cash strapped club ,with Bodog owner Calvin Ayre having links to the area. I am going to split two units between Ayr with the handicap start tonight and them to win promotion.
Ayr United +0.25 ball 1.86 IBC
Ayr United to win Division 2 Playoffs 3.60 + (Boyle/Hills) ...3.75 Stan James/ Bet Fred.
Good Luck.
AYR UNITED - BRECHIN CITY
I should have put this bet up Monday morning, as the asian line of -0.25 2.05 was never going to hold up, however, I am still "happy" to bet at the slightly lower odds. We already have an outright bet from last week, reproduced below, otherwise, I would have rated it a stronger investment. As previously discussed, United lost one of the reverse fixtures on the last day of the season, but put out basically a B team and were resting players for the post season, City also won here on the opening day of the campaign, but Ayr were still building a side and only four players who played that day are likely to take any part tomorrow night. The two other games which came when both were fghting for a playoff spot were won by a 5-0 margin by Ayr, with United dominating both and being worthy of even bigger wins in both games. They look to have more goals in them than City, look solid at the back, former Leeds keeper Alan Martin who never quite made it at Elland Road and a settled centre back pairing gives them a far more solid look than they had early season and for the other reasons listed below they should be playing Division 1 football next season and definitely be taking a lead into the second leg.
Ayr United -0.25 ball 1.95 IBC..... currently trading at circa 1.80.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 PLAYOFFS
FORFAR ATHLETIC - AYR UNITED
I am keen on United to progress through this two legged tie and to go on and book a quick return to the First Division following relegation last season, they had previously gone up through the playoff system in 2009 so know what to expect and look the strongest of the four sides. They are definitely the biggest club, with arguably the best starting eleven, who should be well rested after most were given a day off at the weekend with second place already assured. They took a little while to get a settled side this season, but really started to find the net in the last month or so, beating playoff rivals Forfar 3-1 and Brechin City 3-0, City might claim to have got some revenge on saturday, with a 1-0 victory, but United had nothing to play for and fielded a team mainly made up of youngsters. They also suffered a recent 3-2 loss here in the league, where they led twice and then conceded a late own goal and will be confident of getting a result tonight against a team who were expected to struggle this season after promotion last year, when they were two divisions below United. Hosts will have 18 yo Neil Duffy between the sticks, he is on loan from St Johnstone and has plenty of promise, but has only made five career starts and that is far from ideal in such a big game, against an opponent with goals in them. United also got a massive boost off the pitch this week, when Bodog agreed a sponsorship deal with the club, this is unheard of at this level and could lead to bigger things for the cash strapped club ,with Bodog owner Calvin Ayre having links to the area. I am going to split two units between Ayr with the handicap start tonight and them to win promotion.
Ayr United +0.25 ball 1.86 IBC
Ayr United to win Division 2 Playoffs 3.60 + (Boyle/Hills) ...3.75 Stan James/ Bet Fred.
Good Luck.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
TUESDAY .............
Le Mans won very easily last night ( posted on Friday) and that selection along with the Boulogne "over" more than covered the losses on the Blackburn Rovers- Manchester United game, where we were a little unfortunate. Maybe I should be blaming myself for not being braver and opting for the full time draw in the match at Ewood Park, but it is often easier and better for one's mental health to blame someone else, so it is a toss up between Brett Emerton for daring to score, or Nani for hitting the crossbar with a first half close range header !
Le Mans were actually written in my notes as a double staked selection, my only one of the last seven days, but I had to "disguise" it a little in the blog, but those who received the email will know how keen I was on them and that I felt it was vital to get on as soon as possible. They traded as low as 1.79 through the day, but increased back up to 1.90 before kick off ( maybe higher), not sure why, but the result was never really in doubt and they were 3-0 up by the break.
No blog selections for me today, regular readers will probably know what I think about the Championship playoff game tonight in any case. However, I have just put up three previews for tomorrow and providing the odds hold up, I will post one, maybe two of them here tomorrow.
Still no phone call from Griffin Park btw, I have to go out for an hour or two, hope they have my mobile number !
Good Luck.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
SATURDAY ....
Interesting day today and I have previewed five matches, with selections all priced between 2.10 and 6.50, one of which is previewed below. It feels very odd to have half a round of EPL games taking place BEFORE the FA Cup final and I guess Sir Alex will relish the chance to take the headlines away from Manchester City making their first final appearance in 30 years.
Still no managerial appointment at Brentford, I am available for the job and have been at home all week, but still no call from Griffin Park !
EPL
BLACKBURN ROVERS - MANCHESTER UNITED
United will be champions with a point, that would mean they could relax ahead of their final start of the season and concentrate solely on their Champions League final with Barcelona. I am certain that they will get the deal done this weekend and a draw would be quite useful to Rovers too. That would give them a minimum one point lead and goal difference advantage over both Wigan and Blackpool, of course, they would like the win which would ensure their safety for another season, but one point might do that in any case and at the end of the day, they are playing Manchester United. I definitely think that both will be a little cautious in the opening exchanges and definitely see value in the half time draw, Rovers are something of a specialist in this market, drawing 20 ( 55.55%) of their 36 starts at the break, have only lost five opening periods and have kept 7 clean sheets in their last ten first halves. United also do not go in at the break trailing too often ( as you might expect), just four times all season, their last four have all been 0-0 at the half and they have not scored in the opening 45 minutes in six of their last seven. This is a tradionally tight fixture, with six of the last eleven ending in draws, Rovers have won three and United twice, which is something of a surprise, with only one of the eleven being one by more than a single goal margin. Another close game in prospect and the half time stalemate looks the best value on offer.
Half Time draw 2.20 + ...2.30 Bet 365 ... 2.38 exhanges.
Good Luck.
Still no managerial appointment at Brentford, I am available for the job and have been at home all week, but still no call from Griffin Park !
EPL
BLACKBURN ROVERS - MANCHESTER UNITED
United will be champions with a point, that would mean they could relax ahead of their final start of the season and concentrate solely on their Champions League final with Barcelona. I am certain that they will get the deal done this weekend and a draw would be quite useful to Rovers too. That would give them a minimum one point lead and goal difference advantage over both Wigan and Blackpool, of course, they would like the win which would ensure their safety for another season, but one point might do that in any case and at the end of the day, they are playing Manchester United. I definitely think that both will be a little cautious in the opening exchanges and definitely see value in the half time draw, Rovers are something of a specialist in this market, drawing 20 ( 55.55%) of their 36 starts at the break, have only lost five opening periods and have kept 7 clean sheets in their last ten first halves. United also do not go in at the break trailing too often ( as you might expect), just four times all season, their last four have all been 0-0 at the half and they have not scored in the opening 45 minutes in six of their last seven. This is a tradionally tight fixture, with six of the last eleven ending in draws, Rovers have won three and United twice, which is something of a surprise, with only one of the eleven being one by more than a single goal margin. Another close game in prospect and the half time stalemate looks the best value on offer.
Half Time draw 2.20 + ...2.30 Bet 365 ... 2.38 exhanges.
Good Luck.
Friday, May 13, 2011
STARTING TONIGHT ....
FRANCE
LIGUE 2 ROUND 36
LE MANS- LAVAL ( Monday)
Top 3 teams in Ligue 2 Evian, Dijon and Ajaccio all have 58 points, Le Mans are two points further back in fourth spot, they, along with Dijon play on Monday night.
Whatever happens to Evian and Ajaccio tonight, there is a massive incentive for Le Mans to claim the three points against Laval, it could see them move up into the automatic promotion spot and/or keep the pressure on the others, especially Dijon who kick off 30 minutes later, over the final two weeks of the campaign.
Le Mans have probably the best squad in the division and with a brand new stadium they are desperate to be playing in the top flight next season. They look to have recovered from a mini blip with six points and two clean sheets from their last two starts and should have far too much for a Laval side who have nothing to play for on Monday, have already lost ten times on the road ( only scoring seven goals) and will be focused on their upcoming final game of the campaign where they are trying to go all season unbeaten on home soil. I think odds are likely to tumble here on a quiet monday evening, once the results of the friday action are known and absorbed, so best to get on now.
Le Mans -1 ball 2.02 Sbobet/IBC.
BOULOGNE - CHATEAUROUX ( Friday)
This is effectively a friendly, with hosts mathematically safe and the visitors having reached that all important 44 point mark. Chateauroux have opened up recently, scoring and conceding in their last four, with their last three going "over" and they have either scored or condeded three goals in three of their last five outings. Hard to see them ditching that front foot play and with this being Boulogne's final home start of the campaign where they will be looking to entertain and send their supporters off with some positive mental memories for the summer, this is very likely to produce goals. Four of Boulogne's last five starts have seen four or more goals and something similar looks on the cards his evening.
"over" 2.25 goals 1.93 Sbobet/IBC.
Good Luck.
LIGUE 2 ROUND 36
LE MANS- LAVAL ( Monday)
Top 3 teams in Ligue 2 Evian, Dijon and Ajaccio all have 58 points, Le Mans are two points further back in fourth spot, they, along with Dijon play on Monday night.
Whatever happens to Evian and Ajaccio tonight, there is a massive incentive for Le Mans to claim the three points against Laval, it could see them move up into the automatic promotion spot and/or keep the pressure on the others, especially Dijon who kick off 30 minutes later, over the final two weeks of the campaign.
Le Mans have probably the best squad in the division and with a brand new stadium they are desperate to be playing in the top flight next season. They look to have recovered from a mini blip with six points and two clean sheets from their last two starts and should have far too much for a Laval side who have nothing to play for on Monday, have already lost ten times on the road ( only scoring seven goals) and will be focused on their upcoming final game of the campaign where they are trying to go all season unbeaten on home soil. I think odds are likely to tumble here on a quiet monday evening, once the results of the friday action are known and absorbed, so best to get on now.
Le Mans -1 ball 2.02 Sbobet/IBC.
BOULOGNE - CHATEAUROUX ( Friday)
This is effectively a friendly, with hosts mathematically safe and the visitors having reached that all important 44 point mark. Chateauroux have opened up recently, scoring and conceding in their last four, with their last three going "over" and they have either scored or condeded three goals in three of their last five outings. Hard to see them ditching that front foot play and with this being Boulogne's final home start of the campaign where they will be looking to entertain and send their supporters off with some positive mental memories for the summer, this is very likely to produce goals. Four of Boulogne's last five starts have seen four or more goals and something similar looks on the cards his evening.
"over" 2.25 goals 1.93 Sbobet/IBC.
Good Luck.
FRIDAY ......
Here were my notes sent to around 25 readers of the blog on Wednesday, should you wish to receive the occasional free email, or even go on the waiting list to receive it on a daily basis, send me an email at stencelwade@btinternet.com
WEDNESDAY MAY 5TH
Bit of a mixed bag today with some tennis, plus scottish and spanish football. Tomorrow I will start with my first look at the Football League playoffs ahead of a really huge weekend of sport.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 PLAYOFFS
FORFAR ATHLETIC - AYR UNITED
I am keen on United to progress through this two legged tie and to go on and book a quick return to the First Division following relegation last season, they had previously gone up through the playoff system in 2009 so know what to expect and look the strongest of the four sides. They are definitely the biggest club, with arguably the best starting eleven, who should be well rested after most were given a day off at the weekend with second place already assured. They took a little while to get a settled side this season, but really started to find the net in the last month or so, beating playoff rivals Forfar 3-1 and Brechin City 3-0, City might claim to have got some revenge on saturday, with a 1-0 victory, but United had nothing to play for and fielded a team mainly made up of youngsters. They also suffered a recent 3-2 loss here in the league, where they led twice and then conceded a late own goal and will be confident of getting a result tonight against a team who were expected to struggle this season after promotion last year, when they were two divisions below United. Hosts will have 18 yo Neil Duffy between the sticks, he is on loan from St Johnstone and has plenty of promise, but has only made five career starts and that is far from ideal in such a big game, against an opponent with goals in them. United also got a massive boost off the pitch this week, when Bodog agreed a sponsorship deal with the club, this is unheard of at this level and could lead to bigger things for the cash strapped club ,with Bodog owner Calvin Ayre having links to the area. I am going to split two units between Ayr with the handicap start tonight and them to win promotion.
Ayr United +0.25 ball 1.86 IBC Won 4-1
Ayr United to win Division 2 Playoffs 3.60 + (Boyle/Hills) ...3.75 Stan James/ Bet Fred. .... Now trading as low as 1.91
SPAIN LIGA ADELANTE
GRANADA - SD HUESCA ( Thursday)
I am going to have so much to pass on in the coming months that I will have to start sharing it whenever the opportunity arises, so an early bet for tomorrow and a few words about Granada whom I am keen on to clinch the third promotion place. The top two spots in Segunda come with automatic promotion and they will quite rightly go to Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano, the next four teams, excluding the reserve teams, will playoff for the third spot, so at present that would be Celta, Granada, Elche and Valladolid. With Granada having a six point lead over the nearest potential gatecrasher, three of their remaining five games on home soil and with their last game against a likely "friendly" opponent, they look booked for a post season place.
I have watched extended highlights of three recent Granada games and have been very impressed, they would definitely not be out of place in the lower reaches of the top flight and this is a team going places fast. They have had severe financial problems in the recent past but appear to have put those behind them and have some very influential "owners". Effectively ,they are owned by the Pozzo family who also own Udinese and eleven , yes eleven, registered players of the italian club are on the books here, almost all on a season long loan. I am not entirely sure what the idea is here, they are mainly players with Spanish experience, signed by Udinese and then immediately loaned to Granada, although there are also the usual Brazilian, Nigerian and a very talented Chilean in Fabian Orellana who has made 19 appearances for his national team and who is pulling the strings, another who caught the eye was Swiss born/ Spanish player Alex Geijo, who is big, mobile, quick and he has a real eye for goal , scoring 22 in just 30 appearances. Money is tight in Spanish football but no longer a problem for Granada it seems, Giampaolo Pozzo considers the city ripe to support a top flight team and it is a much bigger city than Udine. Since he became involved officially last year, Granada have coasted through Segunda B averaging two points and two goals per game and made the switch to the higher level fairly seemlessly, getting stronger as the season has progressed. There was no let up from the club at the end of last season and they won their last five starts in the regular season and then played four post season games, conceding just a single goal and effectively settling both ties in the first leg.
They should have enough to ease past Huesca, who struggle for goals on the road, but will have to open up a little as they still mathematically have a chance of making the post season themselves, this should give Granada space to exploit . I also think as soon as possible we should try to back them for promotion, odds are around 4.33 now, maybe higher if you shop around, they are not in the playoffs yet, but once they are and everyone starts to research their background a little more, I think much lower quotes will be offered.
Granada -1 ball 2.04 .... won 2-0
TENNIS WTA ROME
MARION BARTOLI - ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES
OK, we are not going to get fat on these odds, but little fish are sweet sometimes and I think this is a value price. Bartoli is not a clay courter she cannot move well on the surface and complains that "the ball comes back too often " on the surface, she usually loses the moment she meets anyone comfortable on the surface and in the past that has included players ranked 400 + in the world. The frenchwoman's father, Walter, who is also her coach, says that Marion uses the clay court season as "a springboard for the grass", "it helps her prepare". She holds a 5-1 lifetime record over her spanish opponent, but is, guess what ( ?) 0-1 on clay, with Garrigues winning in Madrid in this very week last season 6-2 6-0. Garrigues is 71-38 on the dirt in the last four years, posting a winning record every year ( Bartoli has a losing record on clay in three of the last four seasons) and proved her well being with a win in Estoril a fortnight ago, the 9th single title on the surface of her career, plus any number of doubles wins on clay including two French Open titles. She has already won two qualifiers here and beat Patty Schnyder, a much better clay courter than Bartoli with ease in the first round, she really ought to win this with a degree of comfort.
1.5 units Anabel Medina Garrigues 1.67 +1.714 Pinnacle/ 1.70 exchanges. Won in straight sets
Good Luck.
WEDNESDAY MAY 5TH
Bit of a mixed bag today with some tennis, plus scottish and spanish football. Tomorrow I will start with my first look at the Football League playoffs ahead of a really huge weekend of sport.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 PLAYOFFS
FORFAR ATHLETIC - AYR UNITED
I am keen on United to progress through this two legged tie and to go on and book a quick return to the First Division following relegation last season, they had previously gone up through the playoff system in 2009 so know what to expect and look the strongest of the four sides. They are definitely the biggest club, with arguably the best starting eleven, who should be well rested after most were given a day off at the weekend with second place already assured. They took a little while to get a settled side this season, but really started to find the net in the last month or so, beating playoff rivals Forfar 3-1 and Brechin City 3-0, City might claim to have got some revenge on saturday, with a 1-0 victory, but United had nothing to play for and fielded a team mainly made up of youngsters. They also suffered a recent 3-2 loss here in the league, where they led twice and then conceded a late own goal and will be confident of getting a result tonight against a team who were expected to struggle this season after promotion last year, when they were two divisions below United. Hosts will have 18 yo Neil Duffy between the sticks, he is on loan from St Johnstone and has plenty of promise, but has only made five career starts and that is far from ideal in such a big game, against an opponent with goals in them. United also got a massive boost off the pitch this week, when Bodog agreed a sponsorship deal with the club, this is unheard of at this level and could lead to bigger things for the cash strapped club ,with Bodog owner Calvin Ayre having links to the area. I am going to split two units between Ayr with the handicap start tonight and them to win promotion.
Ayr United +0.25 ball 1.86 IBC Won 4-1
Ayr United to win Division 2 Playoffs 3.60 + (Boyle/Hills) ...3.75 Stan James/ Bet Fred. .... Now trading as low as 1.91
SPAIN LIGA ADELANTE
GRANADA - SD HUESCA ( Thursday)
I am going to have so much to pass on in the coming months that I will have to start sharing it whenever the opportunity arises, so an early bet for tomorrow and a few words about Granada whom I am keen on to clinch the third promotion place. The top two spots in Segunda come with automatic promotion and they will quite rightly go to Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano, the next four teams, excluding the reserve teams, will playoff for the third spot, so at present that would be Celta, Granada, Elche and Valladolid. With Granada having a six point lead over the nearest potential gatecrasher, three of their remaining five games on home soil and with their last game against a likely "friendly" opponent, they look booked for a post season place.
I have watched extended highlights of three recent Granada games and have been very impressed, they would definitely not be out of place in the lower reaches of the top flight and this is a team going places fast. They have had severe financial problems in the recent past but appear to have put those behind them and have some very influential "owners". Effectively ,they are owned by the Pozzo family who also own Udinese and eleven , yes eleven, registered players of the italian club are on the books here, almost all on a season long loan. I am not entirely sure what the idea is here, they are mainly players with Spanish experience, signed by Udinese and then immediately loaned to Granada, although there are also the usual Brazilian, Nigerian and a very talented Chilean in Fabian Orellana who has made 19 appearances for his national team and who is pulling the strings, another who caught the eye was Swiss born/ Spanish player Alex Geijo, who is big, mobile, quick and he has a real eye for goal , scoring 22 in just 30 appearances. Money is tight in Spanish football but no longer a problem for Granada it seems, Giampaolo Pozzo considers the city ripe to support a top flight team and it is a much bigger city than Udine. Since he became involved officially last year, Granada have coasted through Segunda B averaging two points and two goals per game and made the switch to the higher level fairly seemlessly, getting stronger as the season has progressed. There was no let up from the club at the end of last season and they won their last five starts in the regular season and then played four post season games, conceding just a single goal and effectively settling both ties in the first leg.
They should have enough to ease past Huesca, who struggle for goals on the road, but will have to open up a little as they still mathematically have a chance of making the post season themselves, this should give Granada space to exploit . I also think as soon as possible we should try to back them for promotion, odds are around 4.33 now, maybe higher if you shop around, they are not in the playoffs yet, but once they are and everyone starts to research their background a little more, I think much lower quotes will be offered.
Granada -1 ball 2.04 .... won 2-0
TENNIS WTA ROME
MARION BARTOLI - ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES
OK, we are not going to get fat on these odds, but little fish are sweet sometimes and I think this is a value price. Bartoli is not a clay courter she cannot move well on the surface and complains that "the ball comes back too often " on the surface, she usually loses the moment she meets anyone comfortable on the surface and in the past that has included players ranked 400 + in the world. The frenchwoman's father, Walter, who is also her coach, says that Marion uses the clay court season as "a springboard for the grass", "it helps her prepare". She holds a 5-1 lifetime record over her spanish opponent, but is, guess what ( ?) 0-1 on clay, with Garrigues winning in Madrid in this very week last season 6-2 6-0. Garrigues is 71-38 on the dirt in the last four years, posting a winning record every year ( Bartoli has a losing record on clay in three of the last four seasons) and proved her well being with a win in Estoril a fortnight ago, the 9th single title on the surface of her career, plus any number of doubles wins on clay including two French Open titles. She has already won two qualifiers here and beat Patty Schnyder, a much better clay courter than Bartoli with ease in the first round, she really ought to win this with a degree of comfort.
1.5 units Anabel Medina Garrigues 1.67 +1.714 Pinnacle/ 1.70 exchanges. Won in straight sets
Good Luck.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
TUESDAY .......
FRANCE LIGUE 2
TOURS - DIJON
I simply refuse to see this match going "under", only Sedan and Evian have scored more than Dijon this season and the club from Burgundy have bulldozed their way into the top three with some fine attacking play scoring twenty in their last ten starts, on the road they tend to "go for it" and their games average 2.65 goals, way above the division mean of 2.12. They are in the promotion driving seat and know that four wins would see them playing top flight football next season for the first time in their history, they will be prepared to battle for every ball and point, but I do not think they will abandon the attacking principles which have served them so well, especially playing a team like Tours. Hosts play a very gung-ho style, only Vannes who are on their way to National have conceded more goals and their fixtures are averaging a league high 3.0 per game. They have conceded 13 in their last five starts, that in itself is bad enough, but as 10 of them came against Boulogne, Chateauroux and at home to Ajacccio and Grenoble, four of the division's low scorers, it should have the Dijon front men salivating at the chances which seem certain to come their way this evening. H2h wise there is absolutely nothing to put us off, wth six of the last seven meetings going over and Dijon being 7-2-0 and unbeaten in nine starts.
"over" 2.5 goals 2.05 + .. 2.10 Paddy P/ Exchanges.
Good Luck.
TOURS - DIJON
I simply refuse to see this match going "under", only Sedan and Evian have scored more than Dijon this season and the club from Burgundy have bulldozed their way into the top three with some fine attacking play scoring twenty in their last ten starts, on the road they tend to "go for it" and their games average 2.65 goals, way above the division mean of 2.12. They are in the promotion driving seat and know that four wins would see them playing top flight football next season for the first time in their history, they will be prepared to battle for every ball and point, but I do not think they will abandon the attacking principles which have served them so well, especially playing a team like Tours. Hosts play a very gung-ho style, only Vannes who are on their way to National have conceded more goals and their fixtures are averaging a league high 3.0 per game. They have conceded 13 in their last five starts, that in itself is bad enough, but as 10 of them came against Boulogne, Chateauroux and at home to Ajacccio and Grenoble, four of the division's low scorers, it should have the Dijon front men salivating at the chances which seem certain to come their way this evening. H2h wise there is absolutely nothing to put us off, wth six of the last seven meetings going over and Dijon being 7-2-0 and unbeaten in nine starts.
"over" 2.5 goals 2.05 + .. 2.10 Paddy P/ Exchanges.
Good Luck.
Monday, May 09, 2011
MONDAY ....
My goodness Arsenal were poor yesterday ! I picked the wrong game for the blog with my other three football selections all making a profit, see below. As I tried to explain last week this is just pot luck, I could have picked the only winner, but found the only loser, that is the problem when I can only carry a small number of my match previews on the blog. Nevermind, we are dealt our hand and have to play it .......... or fold !
SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
QVIDING-FALKENBERG
1.5 units Falkenberg -0.25 ball 1.87. WON 1-0
PORTUGAL SUPERLIGA
ACADEMICA COIMBRA - SPORTING BRAGA
Academica Coimbra +0.25 ball 2.21. DRAW 0-0
ENGLAND EPL
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS - WEST BROMWICH ALBION
Wolverhampton -0.5 ball 2.20 + ... a little 2.25 available. WON 3-1
I have previewed two matches today and have managed to find a double stake selection, which is unusual for a Monday. Not sure if I will be able to post either on the blog, but I will definitely be posting a selection tomorrow, so please check back.
My beloved Brentford ended their season in 11th spot, I suppose after flirting with relegation early season, a mid table finish and Wembley appearance was more then we could have hoped for, but two places lower than last season, with a stronger squad and bigger playing budget has left most supporters feeling a little deflated.
Expectation levels are just so much higher now, not sure that is entirely fair on Matthew Benham and the Bees board, but that is the case, despite the club having a loyal, but low crowd base and only one previous season in the second tier of english football in my very long lifetime !
However,Brentford's home form, just nine wins and 24 goals scored in 23 starts was simply not good enough with the resources they had in a decidedly average League 1. Coach Andy Scott paid with his job earlier this year, I feel Nicky Forster and Mark Warburton did a decent short term job in difficult circumstances, but it looks like the club are going down more of a "name" route and we can expect a new manager to be named very shortly, possibly in the next day or two. Interesting summer in prospect down at Griffin Park the "theatre of sleepless nights".
Good Luck.
SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
QVIDING-FALKENBERG
1.5 units Falkenberg -0.25 ball 1.87. WON 1-0
PORTUGAL SUPERLIGA
ACADEMICA COIMBRA - SPORTING BRAGA
Academica Coimbra +0.25 ball 2.21. DRAW 0-0
ENGLAND EPL
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS - WEST BROMWICH ALBION
Wolverhampton -0.5 ball 2.20 + ... a little 2.25 available. WON 3-1
I have previewed two matches today and have managed to find a double stake selection, which is unusual for a Monday. Not sure if I will be able to post either on the blog, but I will definitely be posting a selection tomorrow, so please check back.
My beloved Brentford ended their season in 11th spot, I suppose after flirting with relegation early season, a mid table finish and Wembley appearance was more then we could have hoped for, but two places lower than last season, with a stronger squad and bigger playing budget has left most supporters feeling a little deflated.
Expectation levels are just so much higher now, not sure that is entirely fair on Matthew Benham and the Bees board, but that is the case, despite the club having a loyal, but low crowd base and only one previous season in the second tier of english football in my very long lifetime !
However,Brentford's home form, just nine wins and 24 goals scored in 23 starts was simply not good enough with the resources they had in a decidedly average League 1. Coach Andy Scott paid with his job earlier this year, I feel Nicky Forster and Mark Warburton did a decent short term job in difficult circumstances, but it looks like the club are going down more of a "name" route and we can expect a new manager to be named very shortly, possibly in the next day or two. Interesting summer in prospect down at Griffin Park the "theatre of sleepless nights".
Good Luck.
Sunday, May 08, 2011
CITY HAVE A DATE WITH DESTINY .....
EPL
STOKE CITY - ARSENAL
Most would normally expect Arsenal to come here with an uneasy feeling in their stomach, there is a little bad feeling between the two clubs following the Ryan Shawcross "tackle" on Aaron Ramsey last year, but the Gunners are not as prepared to roll over any more in these type of fixtures and have posted more road wins than any other EPL side this campaign. Also, with City having the small matter of a FA Cup final appearance at Wembley next weekend and with nothing to play for apart from prize money, it is the home side who might enter this with a little trepidation. Remember, City are the oldest club in the top flight, being founded in 1863 and have never won the league or appeared in the FA Cup final, in terms of history the final is HUGE for them and if they win it, the starting eleven will roll off the tongues of Stoke fans for generations to come, no one wants to miss out on the big day and that might be in the back of all the City players this afternoon.
Arenal will all but ensure third place with victory today but can close in on second, maybe even United in first place with the top two facing off at Old Trafford later in the day and that is incentive enough, effectively keeping their season alive.
STOKE CITY - ARSENAL
Most would normally expect Arsenal to come here with an uneasy feeling in their stomach, there is a little bad feeling between the two clubs following the Ryan Shawcross "tackle" on Aaron Ramsey last year, but the Gunners are not as prepared to roll over any more in these type of fixtures and have posted more road wins than any other EPL side this campaign. Also, with City having the small matter of a FA Cup final appearance at Wembley next weekend and with nothing to play for apart from prize money, it is the home side who might enter this with a little trepidation. Remember, City are the oldest club in the top flight, being founded in 1863 and have never won the league or appeared in the FA Cup final, in terms of history the final is HUGE for them and if they win it, the starting eleven will roll off the tongues of Stoke fans for generations to come, no one wants to miss out on the big day and that might be in the back of all the City players this afternoon.
Arenal will all but ensure third place with victory today but can close in on second, maybe even United in first place with the top two facing off at Old Trafford later in the day and that is incentive enough, effectively keeping their season alive.
Arsenal : Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Djourou, Gibbs, Song, Wilshere, Ramsey, Walcott, Arshavin, Van Persie .
Subs: Lehmann, Vermaelen, Rosicky, Squillaci, Eboue, Chamakh, Bendtner.
Arsenal -0.75 ball currently....... 2.20.
Good Luck.
SUNDAY ....
We landed the double stakes bet on the Swansea game yesterday and also got the added bonus of the 3.75 for four or more goals, it was a pleasing day all round, which ended with a winner in Las Vegas overnight when I sent the notes reproduced below for the Pac-Man fight to many of you.
I have been busy today and have put up a selection in Sweden, another in Portugal and two in the EPL, plus a bet at circa 4.50 on the USPGA tour which I am very keen on. Not sure if I will post any previews on the blog today, let's see how the odds hold up in the next couple of hours and I will be back early afternoon.
I have been busy today and have put up a selection in Sweden, another in Portugal and two in the EPL, plus a bet at circa 4.50 on the USPGA tour which I am very keen on. Not sure if I will post any previews on the blog today, let's see how the odds hold up in the next couple of hours and I will be back early afternoon.
Good Luck.
Sent by email yesterday .....
WBO WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
MANNY PACQUIAO- SHANE MOSLEY
Manny Pacquiao transcends the world of boxing, he is national hero and congressman in the Philippines, but that doesn't really do his status justice, he is quite simply the most famous Filipino of all time and that includes Imelda !
Pac-Man started as a Light Flyweight and last fought as a Light Middleweight , that is ten weight divisions, he has won World titles in eight of them, an undisputed title in four, he is a true boxing phenomenon.
He is 52-3-2 lifetime, but has not lost since 2005 when Erik Morales beat him on points, but Manny put that right and stopped Morales in the return bout a few months later and otherwise has not lost in the 2000's during which he has fought mainly the best of the best. His last three fights have gone 12 rounds, with a late TKO decision in the first and taking the last two on points.
Key for Pacquiao is that unlike most boxers at this stage of their career, he is still in love with the sport and lives to fight, it is certainly not for the money, he is mega wealthy and another $20m for tonight, whist useful, is not going to make too much difference to him.
He has moved back down to Welterweight for this fight, which suits him better, but he is still a tiny boxer in this class.
Shane Mosley has had a fine career and in a different era would probably have been even higher rated, but at 39 years old, he has to give seven years to his opponent and his best years are clearly well behind him. Mosley has an impressive 46-6-1 record, but that becomes less impressive when we note that he was 38-0-0 and 8-6-1 for his last 15 fights hints at a very different level. However, he has always fought the cream of the crop and whilst he has not won in 28 months, a first career draw and points loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in his two starts since prove that he is still a worthy opponent. Having said that he never looked like winning either of those fights and I suspect he has lost a little of his punching power.
Still, he is tough, tough, tough and has NEVER been stopped in 54 pro fights, with the six losses all coming on points. In my opinion he will do everything possible to protect that proud record and go the distance again tonight. He is the much bigger man ( 1.75 m against 1.69m although I have my doubts that Pac-Man is even that tall) and with a big ( 1.88cm - 170cm) reach advantage and whilst he has struggled against southpaws ( Manny) in the past, he should have enough to see the fight out and end his career with another honourable defeat. Odds are nice and far and away the best value in the fight.
Manny Pacquiaco to win on Points/ Decision 2.75 + .... 2.875 Bet 365.... up to 2.98 on the exchanges as I type. Pac-Man won by Unanimous Decision
WBO WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
MANNY PACQUIAO- SHANE MOSLEY
Manny Pacquiao transcends the world of boxing, he is national hero and congressman in the Philippines, but that doesn't really do his status justice, he is quite simply the most famous Filipino of all time and that includes Imelda !
Pac-Man started as a Light Flyweight and last fought as a Light Middleweight , that is ten weight divisions, he has won World titles in eight of them, an undisputed title in four, he is a true boxing phenomenon.
He is 52-3-2 lifetime, but has not lost since 2005 when Erik Morales beat him on points, but Manny put that right and stopped Morales in the return bout a few months later and otherwise has not lost in the 2000's during which he has fought mainly the best of the best. His last three fights have gone 12 rounds, with a late TKO decision in the first and taking the last two on points.
Key for Pacquiao is that unlike most boxers at this stage of their career, he is still in love with the sport and lives to fight, it is certainly not for the money, he is mega wealthy and another $20m for tonight, whist useful, is not going to make too much difference to him.
He has moved back down to Welterweight for this fight, which suits him better, but he is still a tiny boxer in this class.
Shane Mosley has had a fine career and in a different era would probably have been even higher rated, but at 39 years old, he has to give seven years to his opponent and his best years are clearly well behind him. Mosley has an impressive 46-6-1 record, but that becomes less impressive when we note that he was 38-0-0 and 8-6-1 for his last 15 fights hints at a very different level. However, he has always fought the cream of the crop and whilst he has not won in 28 months, a first career draw and points loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in his two starts since prove that he is still a worthy opponent. Having said that he never looked like winning either of those fights and I suspect he has lost a little of his punching power.
Still, he is tough, tough, tough and has NEVER been stopped in 54 pro fights, with the six losses all coming on points. In my opinion he will do everything possible to protect that proud record and go the distance again tonight. He is the much bigger man ( 1.75 m against 1.69m although I have my doubts that Pac-Man is even that tall) and with a big ( 1.88cm - 170cm) reach advantage and whilst he has struggled against southpaws ( Manny) in the past, he should have enough to see the fight out and end his career with another honourable defeat. Odds are nice and far and away the best value in the fight.
Manny Pacquiaco to win on Points/ Decision 2.75 + .... 2.875 Bet 365.... up to 2.98 on the exchanges as I type. Pac-Man won by Unanimous Decision
Saturday, May 07, 2011
SATURDAY .... RIP SEVE
I cannot start the day without a few words about Severiano Ballesteros who passed away yesterday aged just 54, following a three year long battle against a brain tumour. This was one scrap he couldn't win, but typical of him, he was still fighting until the very end.
Seve was a one off, a cavalier swashbuckling golfer who was loved by fans of the sport the world over. He almost singlehandledly dragged european golf up by it's cleats and restored self belief that they could compete against the americans. Seve was a giant on the course and no one who ever saw him play at his pomp will forget the thrill, he was simply the most charismatic player to ever pick up a club. RIP Seve.
CHAMPIONSHIP
We have seen quite a big increase in the number of goals in the Championship up 11.5 % from two seasons ago. There are not too many more "overs" just that the games that are going "over" are really going "over", something that we have touched upon in recent weeks.
Today is the last round of games, a day when much is already decided, teams relax, look to entertain and open up, it has something of a pre seson feel about the matches where there is nothing at stake.
In the last fours seasons on this day an average of five matches have produced at least four goals and backing them all blindly would have made you decent returns. However, looking a litle more closely I think it is the relegated teams which provide the key to the day, in the last five years, thirteen teams have come into the final day already relegated, their games have averaged 4.923 goals, only one did not go "over" the 2.5 goal line and nine produced at least five goals. Today we have three Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe, each will want to send their supporters off with a positive memory for the summer and a win if possible, rememeber there are season tickets to be sold for next season and also this is the last time they will be playing second tier football for a while, which should be motivation in itself. Let's look in a little more detail at one of them................
SWANSEA CITY- SHEFFIELD UNITED
Swansea are playoff bound, they could still clinch second spot, depending upon what Cardiff do elsewhere and on the back of two fine wins, will probably now want to carry on that run and form into the post season. United have been playing quite well in recent weeks, scoring 8 in their last three, including three on the road at Reading another top six side and creating any number of chances at home to Barnsley last week, when they should have scored enough to have won a couple of games. Their last four starts have all produced at least four goals and now that they have found some attacking flair, it seems pointless for them to suddenly ditch that approach at this late, late stage. They will atack, Swansea can pass teams to death on a gong day and will enjoy the extra space, definitely think this will go over and I could easily see both scoring two or more, United scored three at Reading inside 50 minutes, you can get 20-1 for them to do the same here in 90, which might be a fun bet if you are so inclined and of an adventurous nature.
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.0 general quote..... these notes were written on Thursday afternoon.... anything above 1.90 is ok, maybe for slightly reduced stakes.
We have seen quite a big increase in the number of goals in the Championship up 11.5 % from two seasons ago. There are not too many more "overs" just that the games that are going "over" are really going "over", something that we have touched upon in recent weeks.
Today is the last round of games, a day when much is already decided, teams relax, look to entertain and open up, it has something of a pre seson feel about the matches where there is nothing at stake.
In the last fours seasons on this day an average of five matches have produced at least four goals and backing them all blindly would have made you decent returns. However, looking a litle more closely I think it is the relegated teams which provide the key to the day, in the last five years, thirteen teams have come into the final day already relegated, their games have averaged 4.923 goals, only one did not go "over" the 2.5 goal line and nine produced at least five goals. Today we have three Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe, each will want to send their supporters off with a positive memory for the summer and a win if possible, rememeber there are season tickets to be sold for next season and also this is the last time they will be playing second tier football for a while, which should be motivation in itself. Let's look in a little more detail at one of them................
SWANSEA CITY- SHEFFIELD UNITED
Swansea are playoff bound, they could still clinch second spot, depending upon what Cardiff do elsewhere and on the back of two fine wins, will probably now want to carry on that run and form into the post season. United have been playing quite well in recent weeks, scoring 8 in their last three, including three on the road at Reading another top six side and creating any number of chances at home to Barnsley last week, when they should have scored enough to have won a couple of games. Their last four starts have all produced at least four goals and now that they have found some attacking flair, it seems pointless for them to suddenly ditch that approach at this late, late stage. They will atack, Swansea can pass teams to death on a gong day and will enjoy the extra space, definitely think this will go over and I could easily see both scoring two or more, United scored three at Reading inside 50 minutes, you can get 20-1 for them to do the same here in 90, which might be a fun bet if you are so inclined and of an adventurous nature.
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.0 general quote..... these notes were written on Thursday afternoon.... anything above 1.90 is ok, maybe for slightly reduced stakes.
0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.60 + ...3.75 William Hill.
Good Luck.
Friday, May 06, 2011
FRANCE LIGUE 2 ...........
ANGERS - VANNES
I am looking to oppose Angers here, they are pretty strong at home where they have a 6-7-3 record, or at least do not lose too often, but since losing their cup semi final to PSG 3-1 here recently, appear to be having a problem with motivation. They have nothing left to play for in the league having already booked the needed 44 points and have not scored in their two Ligue 2 outings since that dream ending loss, they are very short of options across the park today with Riga, Renouard, Dore, Couturier and Auriac all missing this evening. Three of them took part in Angers last win and four started in the win before that, scoring two of the three goals, so important missing players for the hosts.
Vannes are in trouble, four points from safety, which with a dire goal difference is effectively five points and with games fast running out they will have no option but to hunt for maximum points tonight. They do not do draws on the road, where they are 4-0-12 but can take heart from a recent 1-0 win at Boulogne, who are always tough on home soil, that at least proves that they are capable of grinding out a win, which is good to know considering they have conceded a Ligue 2 high 31 goals away from the de la Rabine stadium this season. Normally we would back them at +1/2 ball, that option is of course open to you, but given their road record and need for all three points, I will reduce stakes slightly and opt for the glory and straight win bet.
0.75 units Vannes to win 4.2 + ..... still some 4.40 on offer if you shop around.... Unibet and the exchanges ( 4.60).
I am looking to oppose Angers here, they are pretty strong at home where they have a 6-7-3 record, or at least do not lose too often, but since losing their cup semi final to PSG 3-1 here recently, appear to be having a problem with motivation. They have nothing left to play for in the league having already booked the needed 44 points and have not scored in their two Ligue 2 outings since that dream ending loss, they are very short of options across the park today with Riga, Renouard, Dore, Couturier and Auriac all missing this evening. Three of them took part in Angers last win and four started in the win before that, scoring two of the three goals, so important missing players for the hosts.
Vannes are in trouble, four points from safety, which with a dire goal difference is effectively five points and with games fast running out they will have no option but to hunt for maximum points tonight. They do not do draws on the road, where they are 4-0-12 but can take heart from a recent 1-0 win at Boulogne, who are always tough on home soil, that at least proves that they are capable of grinding out a win, which is good to know considering they have conceded a Ligue 2 high 31 goals away from the de la Rabine stadium this season. Normally we would back them at +1/2 ball, that option is of course open to you, but given their road record and need for all three points, I will reduce stakes slightly and opt for the glory and straight win bet.
0.75 units Vannes to win 4.2 + ..... still some 4.40 on offer if you shop around.... Unibet and the exchanges ( 4.60).
Good Luck.
TGIF ......
This is a really big betting weekend for me, I have already put up three double stakes selections for the Championship games, which kick off at lunchtime on Saturday. One is not common, two rare, three on one day........... totally unheard of, so tomorrow is going to exciting and either very profitable or expensive ! I have also found a bet at odds of 32-1 which has a very real chance of success and I will definitely post at least one of these selections on the blog tomorrow morning, provided the quotes hold up reasonably well overnight.
I must say that I enjoyed the two Europa League semi-final games between Porto and Villarreal, despite the second leg being a dead rubber, there was still plenty of entertainment and thrills on offer. The pair also provided 180 minutes of absolutely suicidal defending, going forward few teams are going to be able to compete with Porto in the Champions League next season, with the proviso that they keep their offensive stars in the summer, which is by no means certain, but they will have to tighten up considerably at the back to compete against the very best at the business end of the tournament. Having said that, this is a club that knows how to win the big european club events and they could be a big player next season as well.
Good Luck.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
UPDATE ....
Farnborough won 1-0.
Looking in a little more depth at the five years results posted below. Hard for me to pick any real weak spots, maybe you can find some.
The most bets were (unsurprisingly) played in the Football League/ Non League section where I made a profit every single year and came in at +13.11%. EPL results, which may surprise some of you, were even stronger at +19.52% and Scotland where I was also in the black every year, came in at just a shade under 17%.
Domestic cup games have also made a profit every season and produced 22.14% overall and long term readers will not be too shocked to learn that I "milked" the pre season friendlies with a whopping 41.12 % profit.......... unheard of in asian markets.
So very strong across the board in UK domestic football. However, there is still plenty to look forward to in the summer , not only do we have the pre season games on the horizon but summer leagues in Scandinavia (23.49%), Ireland ( 20.89%) and USA ( 33.77%) to say nothing of Tennis ( 21.7%) and Golf ( 24.24%), all augur incredibly well for the months ahead.
Good Luck.
Looking in a little more depth at the five years results posted below. Hard for me to pick any real weak spots, maybe you can find some.
The most bets were (unsurprisingly) played in the Football League/ Non League section where I made a profit every single year and came in at +13.11%. EPL results, which may surprise some of you, were even stronger at +19.52% and Scotland where I was also in the black every year, came in at just a shade under 17%.
Domestic cup games have also made a profit every season and produced 22.14% overall and long term readers will not be too shocked to learn that I "milked" the pre season friendlies with a whopping 41.12 % profit.......... unheard of in asian markets.
So very strong across the board in UK domestic football. However, there is still plenty to look forward to in the summer , not only do we have the pre season games on the horizon but summer leagues in Scandinavia (23.49%), Ireland ( 20.89%) and USA ( 33.77%) to say nothing of Tennis ( 21.7%) and Golf ( 24.24%), all augur incredibly well for the months ahead.
Good Luck.
CARLSBERG DON'T DO SPORTS BETTING BLOGS ............ IF THEY DID ..............
As many of you know I have been writing the blog for over five years and despite not posting as often in recent months, have written some 3,600 + posts and circa 1.4 million words of content, enough to fill about 15 novels.
My blog output is now just a very small part of my betting portfolio and as such, is going to be increasingly subject to variance. If I am betting 15-20 games in a week and putting maybe one or two on here, there are going to be periods when all the losers, or all the winners are posted, it is kind of pot luck.
Regardless of which, there is still tremendous value in reading the blog IMO and I think that in the coming weeks I will get back to posting a little more, even if they are not all pre match previews.
I am happy to stand corrected, but I believe that over the last five years, no sports betting blog anywhere on the internet has come even close to posting the kind of quality previews and results I have, especially covering this number of events, it is simply impossible ! However big headed that might sound, it is true and I will put the full five year results up online shortly.
Every full year has shown a MASSIVE profit, I am a little behind in 2011 but have posted very little and doubtless will once again be in front come the end of the year should I carry on blogging.
2006 through 2010 the blog made a ROI of between 112.14 % and 137.75% those are astonishing returns and levels of consistency and we are talking about a large number of selections, not one or two hand picked here and there, which make the figures all the more remarkable.
Talking about all my selections for the last 12 months, not just those posted on the blog, I have been a little up and down with more swings that normal. I had a huge summer last year, with fantastic returns right through June, July, August and September, following on from an amazing early year result in the NFL when I posted a season's worth of profits in a few weeks, either side of those,it was not so good. That is very unusual, I would normally expect to be far more consistent and not on a roller coaster ride as regular long term readers will already know, but as I always say, this is gambling and anything can happen !
It is clear that I have an ego, you cannot do what I do without having a fairly high opinion of yourself, it wouldn't work otherwise. My pride has been hurt by a few comments received in the last few months by just a few readers of the blog, I tried to explain that with fewer bets winning/losing runs can always be more extreme, but some people seem to get more fun out of "knocking". No one has to read the blog, or bet anything I post, I am writing it for me, not for you. Having said that, this is the reason I have decided to post the full results today............ if you can point me to a better blog/service elsewhere then please do, I would love to read it ! Not one that has been running a few weeks btw and restarted on another web address after posting poor results on a previous website, like much of the spam I get !
Anyway, take a look at the figures and good luck with all your bets today.
2006 STAKES 991.5 RETURNS 1,154.806 ROI 116.46 %
2007 STAKES 1,187.5 RETURNS 1,331.677 ROI 112.14 %
2008 STAKES 482.5 RETURNS 664.675 ROI 137.75 %
2009 STAKES 548.5 RETURNS 642.43 ROI 117.12 %
2010 STAKES 225.13 RETURNS 259.585 ROI 115.30 %
2011 STAKES 42.5 RETURNS 39.585
TOTALS 3,477.63 RETURNS 4,092.758 ROI 117.69 %
All stakes/ returns have been converted to the current format used, which is basic single stakes, with occasional double or half stake selections.
Selections given for the old format, have been converted at the following rate.... 7 points plus ( double stake) sub 2.5 units ( half stake) and all other selections a basic one unit.
2006
ENGLISH
EPL STAKES 55.0 /RETURNS 64.59
FOOTBALL/ NON LEAGUE 180.0 /185.51
DOMESTIC CUPS 13.5 /10.315
FRIENDLIES 18.5 /28.19
SCOTLAND 37 /39.72
FRANCE 55/ 73.155
GERMANY 50.5 /64.535
ITALY 35.5 /34.405
SPAIN 44.5 /42.075
BELGIUM 1 /1.5
NETHERLANDS 12.5/ 9.53
DENMARK 1 /1.76
SWEDEN 40/ 47.42
IRELAND 5.5 /7.51
NORWAY 17.5/ 21.68
PORTUGAL 7/ 6.22
FINLAND 7 /11.23
EUROPEAN CUPS 71 /73.83
HORSE RACING 14/ 31.9
GOLF 80.5 /119.286
SWITZERLAND 3/ 3.79
ASIA 1 /1.95
SOUTH AMERICA 3 /2.38
RUGBY LEAGUE 2/ 3.70
TENNIS 100.5 /121.39
NFL 16/ 14.99
POKER 4.5 /5.09
ATHLETICS 1/ 3
NBA 1 /1.90
BOXING 2/ 1.75
INTERNATIONALS 111 /120.505
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS 991.5 / 1,154.806 ROI 116.462 %
2007
NFL 39.5 /40.823
NETHERLANDS 24.5 /32.31
ITALY 63.5 /77.023
SPAIN 53 /59.71
NORWAY 8.5 /14.515
EUROPEAN CUPS 66.5 /69.185
SWEDEN 20/ 15.66
GOLF 72/ 61.324
USA 8 /6.11
SCOTLAND 45 /50.459
INTERNATIONALS 73 /101.574
IRELAND 10.5/ 9.20
EPL 51.5 /52.755
FOOTBALL/NON LEAGUE 237 /278.102
DOMESTIC CUPS 43 /53.285
FRIENDLIES 19.5 /28.21
GERMANY 43.5/ 48.965
FRANCE 110.5 /106.568
TENNIS 146 /162.864
AUSTRIA 2 /1.82
ASIA 12/ 14.2
FINLAND 9 /14.21
SOUTH AMERICA 19/ 23.715
DENMARK 1 /0
NBA 6 /5.47
PORTUGAL 1.5 /1.81
SNOOKER 0.5/ 0
POKER 0.5 /0
RUGBY LEAGUE 1 /1.81
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS 1,187.5 / 1,331.677 ROI 112.14 %
2008
EPL 40.5 /56.885
FOOTBALL/NON LEAGUE 118.5 /132.57
DOMESTIC CUPS 22.5 /28.025
FRIENDLIES 2/ 3.72
SCOTLAND 20/ 27.185
NETHERLANDS 12 /15.99
INTERNATIONALS 26 /36.47
ITALY 29/ 72.705
GERMANY 7 /3.16
SPAIN 20.5 /25.66
USA 10.5 /18.605
FRANCE 47 /52.418
EUROPEAN CUPS 44/ 67.39
NFL 28.5/ 42.42
TENNIS 23.5 /40.48
GOLF 13.5 /15.382
IRELAND 5 /6.39
RUSSIA 2.5 /5.62
NORWAY 1 /2.06
SWEDEN 1/ 1.87
AUSTRIA 1/ 1.92
DENMARK 1 /0
SOUTH AMERICA 2/ 0.5
ASIA 1 /0
FINLAND 1 /1
ATHLETICS 2/ 5.25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS 482.5 /664.675 ROI 137.75 %
2009
EPL 50.5 /68.395
FOOTBALL/NON LEAGUE 155/ 187.565
DOMESTIC CUPS 17.5/ 23.295
FRIENDLIES 7 /9.03
SCOTLAND 14/ 17.87
SPAIN 22.5 /27.025
FRANCE 40.5 /38.41
IRELAND 14 /19.18
SWEDEN 5 /11.14
NORWAY 4 /3.035
DENMARK 2 /3.98
ITALY 27.5 /28.42
NETHERLANDS 9 /7.55
SOUTH AMERICA 1/ 0
GERMANY 14/ 7.08
USA 9 /9.02
EUROPEAN CUPS 48.5 /45.225
INTERNATIONALS 19 /19.17
INTERNATIONAL CLUB 8/ 0
CYCLING 1 /3.20
GOLF 34 /51.62
NFL 10 /12.44
TENNIS 35.5/ 49.78
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS 548.5 /642.43 ROI 117.12 %
2010
EPL 30/ 28.69
FOOTBALL/NON LEAGUE 74/ 85.07
DOMESTIC CUPS 12 /16.86
FRIENDLIES 2 /0
INTERNATIONALS 36 /48.405
SCOTLAND 10 /12.17
FINLAND 1 /0
SWEDEN 1 /0
FRANCE 17/ 16.04
NETHERLANDS 2/ 0
GERMANY 2/ 2.17
ITALY 7 /4.80
SPAIN 3/ 5.71
PORTUGAL 1/ 0
IRELAND 2/ 2.45
EUROPEAN CUPS 10/ 15.40
GOLF 5.13 /8.87
CYCLING 1 /1.91
TENNIS 4 /3.99
NFL 5/ 7.05
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS 225.13/ 259.585 ROI 115.30 %
I will reviews these figures, best/worst leagues/sports in a later post. If anyone wants to contact me about the blog, my personal daily notes, or anything related, then please email me on stencelwade@btinternet.com
Good Luck.
TUESDAY ....
A little news below about one of today's lower level games. I will also be posting something which I feel is very important later today/ this evening and would ask you to check back and take a look in the next day or two.
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH PLAYOFF
WOKING - FARNBOROUGH TOWN
I get to see 6-7 games from this division each season and aside from Braintree early season, Farnborough have looked the best team in the BSS, they let a few games slip towards the end of the campaign once their chance of automatic promotion had gone, including a league meeting between these two recently which Woking won 2-1 and rested a few key players to bring them back refreshed for the post season. Two of them, Kezie Ibe and Bradley Bubb had a run out on saturday to get them back in the swing of things and top scorer Bubb showed his well being with a brace of goals.
Town finished second in the division which is a huge advantage in the playoffs, as, after these two legged semi-finals, the highest placed team hosts the one off final. These are two local rivals who know each other well and visiting boss Steve King has been saying for a couple of weeks that it was Woking he wanted to meet in the post season, having "some unfinished business" with them, well, he got his wish !
League meeting here ended 1-1, that would suit Town of course, but I think they will arrive here the fresher, Woking having to battle right to the wire to make it into the playoffs and being without the hugely talented 18 yo midfielder Michael Doughty, who is on loan from QPR and could have played, but choose to go instead and join the Wales U19 squad. He is a very composed presence and was key in the recent league game, when he made the first goal, that will leave a big space to fill in the centre of the park and for me that swings things massively towards Boro. BTW Doughty is not your average young footballer, attending Harrow public school on a scholarship and with his father Nigel owning Nottingham Forest.
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH PLAYOFF
WOKING - FARNBOROUGH TOWN
I get to see 6-7 games from this division each season and aside from Braintree early season, Farnborough have looked the best team in the BSS, they let a few games slip towards the end of the campaign once their chance of automatic promotion had gone, including a league meeting between these two recently which Woking won 2-1 and rested a few key players to bring them back refreshed for the post season. Two of them, Kezie Ibe and Bradley Bubb had a run out on saturday to get them back in the swing of things and top scorer Bubb showed his well being with a brace of goals.
Town finished second in the division which is a huge advantage in the playoffs, as, after these two legged semi-finals, the highest placed team hosts the one off final. These are two local rivals who know each other well and visiting boss Steve King has been saying for a couple of weeks that it was Woking he wanted to meet in the post season, having "some unfinished business" with them, well, he got his wish !
League meeting here ended 1-1, that would suit Town of course, but I think they will arrive here the fresher, Woking having to battle right to the wire to make it into the playoffs and being without the hugely talented 18 yo midfielder Michael Doughty, who is on loan from QPR and could have played, but choose to go instead and join the Wales U19 squad. He is a very composed presence and was key in the recent league game, when he made the first goal, that will leave a big space to fill in the centre of the park and for me that swings things massively towards Boro. BTW Doughty is not your average young footballer, attending Harrow public school on a scholarship and with his father Nigel owning Nottingham Forest.
Getting a quarter ball start is great news, I would make this a level ball game.
Farnborough +0.25 1.96.
Good Luck.
Farnborough +0.25 1.96.
Good Luck.
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