SUNDAY ....

Brentford were outplayed by a much better team yesterday, which pains me to write, I have gone into greater detail on my daily notes, but do not want to publish them on here. A slightly less tangoed than normal Phil Brown was showing how to make friends and influence people with plenty of fist pumping at the home crowd and "hysterical" laughter of incredulity at every decision ( not many) that went against his impressive team, all we needed to complete his performance was a song ! But that is probably just me being a sore loser, which I am not, you become accustomed to defeat as a Bees supporter !

In Serie A I have to stick with Juventus who did us a favour last weekend ( see below), for the trip to Siena. Visiting coach Antonio Conte was in charge at Siena last season and knows the players better than anyone, strengths and weaknesses. His team adapted well to his fluid 4-2-4/ 4-4-2 formation last week and saw off a poor Parma side 4-1 and could have added a couple to that tally. This is a happy hunting ground for Juve who have only ever lost here once and have won on six of their last seven visits, keeping cleansheets in four from five. Siena will be pleased with an opening 0-0 draw at Catania when they put in a very disciplined performance, but they will be have to be more expansive today and Juve can exploit that space. Juventus -0.5 ball 1.98 +

In the BMW Golf, Luke Donald shot one of only eight sub 70 rounds and closed to within two shots of Web Simpson.It would be fantastic for our Money List bet if he could edge in front today. Jim Furyk had another solid round and is in a share of 7th place, he is a projected 27th in the FedEx standings so has HUGE incentive to stay inside the top ten and land our double stake bet ( which we need !). There are three interesting two balls today, Robert Allenby- YE Yang, Martin Laird- Mark Wilson and Geoff Ogilvy- Bill Haas, so, in that order.... Yang is in 30th place in the standings, good enough to see him the last man into the Tour Championship, he needs a solid showing and it is worthwhile noting that he has improved his placing both times in the final round when starting inside the top five this season, which shows that he handles pressure extremely well. He beat Allenby by five strokes yesterday and with the Australian down in 58th place, he needs to force his way into the top 3-4 and with six strokes and 15+ players between him and that spot, it seems unlikely in the extreme. If he gambles and goes for it, or simply loses interest, he is unlikely to match the focus of Yang and the Korean looks solid to win the two ball at circa 1.95 Pinnacle. Laird has improved each day and was also one of the eight to shoot in the 60's yesterday, Wilson had a terrible day, shooting a 77, nine strokes worst than the Scottish player, he looks comfortable in 15th, but will be fearful of another horror show, he will also be nervous as he almost got a two stroke penalty which would have meant a 79. It is fair to assume he will operate a safety first approach and look to steady his ship, Laird in 29th will be looking for another 70 or better score and at 1.935 to win his two ball, he also looks a very solid bet with Pinnacle. Geoff Ogilvy is a major winner and a much better golfer than Haas IMO, he would be my value pick to win the tournament at circa 13.5 ( Betfair), although five strokes behind Justin Rose, maybe a better option would be 5.0 + in the market "without" the four shot leader. Haas is well inside the "cut" mark for next week, but having been "bubble boy" last year ( 31st) he could be excused for also being a little cautious, especially if things do not go his way early in the round and the opening holes are proving very difficult. Ogilvy is 26th on the projected Fed Ex standings and has played the closing five holes in a very fine -7 this week, in the last four times he has really been in contention on Sunday he has shot 67-67-66-66 and he seems bound to go well today, Pinnacle look to have made a big error in pricing him at 2.06 to win this two ball.

These three golf matches are all official two balls, which means that every betting company will price them, many with the tie included and several with the tie no bet option like Pinnacle.

I am going to send a follow up email today at 14.30 UK time with a look at tonight's late action ( nothing starting before 18.00).

Good Luck.

In Serie A big spending Juventus entertain Parma, in the first league match in their brand new stadium. Hosts will be very motivated to open with a win and look determined to compete for a Champions League spot this season. New coach and favourite son Antonio Conte has been given pretty much an open cheque book and some 85m euros was spent over the summer. Key signings were... Dutch midfielder Eljero Elia from Hamburger for a fee of €9m, Montenegrin forward Mirko Vucinic from Roma for a fee of €15m, Chilean midfielder Arturo Vidal from Bayer Leverkusen for a fee of €10.5m, Swiss defender Stephan Lichtsteiner from Lazio for a fee of €10m, Forward Alessandro Matri (permanent signing) from Cagliari for a fee of €15.5m; Forward Fabio Quagliarella (permanent signing) from Napoli for a fee of €10.5m, Defender Marco Motta (permanent signing) from Udinese for a fee of €3.8m, Midfielder Simone Pepe (permanent signing) from Udinese for a fee of €7.5m and Midfielder Andrea Pirlo on a free transfer from Milan.
A couple of those were already with the club, but the deals now made permanent, but you get some idea of the level of investment. Expectation is high and they now have enough depth in the squad to compete with the big three ( maybe four) and with no european involvement, I expect excuses not to be challenging with not be entertained. Milos Krasic and Mirko Vucinic have both had knocks, but trained yesterday and are included in the squad ... Juventus: Buffon, Chiellini, Pazienza, Pepe, Marchisio, Del Piero, De Ceglie, Vucinic, Barzagli, Elia, Bonucci, Toni, Pirlo, Vidal, Giaccherini, Lichtsteiner, Krasic, Storari, Matri, Sorensen.
Juve have to stop the goals conceded especially at home, where they allowed 31 ( !) last season, almost double the number they conceded on the road and a total only beaten by relegated teams. Vidal especially should give some protection to the back line and moving to the new stadium will enable them to start from scratch ( with a clean sheet ?).
Parma are operating on a shoestring budget by comparison and have a large number of Juve old boys in their ranks. The team is still relying the goals of 36 yo Hernan Crespo and he, along with playmaker Sebastian Giovinco are the star names in a team, which gives you some idea of the difference in quality and they look set for another season of struggle.Juve are drifting in asia , but are now getting very attractive 1.5 units Juventus -0.75 1.94 asian line.

Contact : stencelwade @btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ...

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 17TH

Racing Club Lens won comfortably enough last night, they raced into a lead inside 25 minutes, which effectively killed the game off and "the best team in Ligue 2", look firmly back on track.

In the BMW Championship, Jim Furyk remains in contention and with a projected "bubble" place of 31st in the FedEx standings, there will surely be no let up in focus from him over the weekend and I expect him to move closer to the leaders today. Luke Donald moved 29 places up the leaderboard with one of the better scores of the day, after one of the worst on Thursday, he trails Webb Simpson by a big looking eight strokes, but will be focused on reducing that as much as possible by tomorrow evening and giving himself a good chance of clinching the Money List next week.

With regard to today, I am interested in ( Joaquin Phoenix doppelganger) Zach Johnson who shot a low round of the day 66 here on saturday last year. Johnson is a projected 34th so needs to move up at least four places over the weekend ( to play next week) and he is a proven Round 3 player, one of the best on tour, ranked 9th this season and first in 2009. He had one terrible hole yesterday, an eight ( !) at the par 5 15th, a hole he birdied on Thursday, that four shot swing was the difference between a share of 15th where he is now, or sole possession of 5th. I was impressed that he fought back and found a birdie before the end of his round which would have seen him leave the course in better spirits and he is mentally very tough. What I am really happy with is that he is putting well, ranked 3rd over the first two days, the rest of his game ( distance aside) is almost always in good shape and he could go very well over the weekend. There is some small money available 3.75/ 3.80 on the exchanges for him to finish top ten, far too little liquidity for me to put him up as a bet, but I like the quote if you find something similar.

Johnson is partnered with Chez Reavie and Jason Dufner ( we are still playing three balls) today. Reavie is secure for next week, being already ranked 9th, but will want to finish as high as possible, but he is not the best Round 3 player out there ( Ranked 130th this year) averaging exactly two strokes per round, which is huge, more than ZJ, he is an inferior player IMO and will surely not be as hungry as "our man". Dufner is ranked 110th this year and a very poor 157th in 2010 for Round 3 scoring and whilst he will be as motivated as Johnson today, coming into the round in a projected 29th place, there is also huge pressure on him, which he doesn't handle too well at the business end of events and he probably feels like a cowboy with the whole Apache nation chasing him across the wide open spaces of the Cog Hill GC. Three balls are not my favourite betting medium, but I like Johnson at a general 2.375 to win this one.

Football all the way now....

I will start with the Brentford- Preston North End game. The Bees conceded a late, late equaliser on Tuesday, but as already discussed, they played very well, much better than in the 5-0 defeat of Leyton Orient and one long term supporter I spoke to afterwards, described it as the best football he has seen them play in a decade.Here are some of the quotes taken from a supporters website ....

"Last night’s game was a real joy and if this is the fare we are to be offered this season then it will be a real joy to come to GP. In Donaldson we have the player we have all been crying out for, strong, physical, fast and skilful. Last night’s performance would have to go a long way to be bettered it was the epitome of what a centre forward is all about. Most definitely my Man of the match. The rest of the team all played well and it would be difficult to criticise anyone. Adams had an excellent debut and I can imagine with him as one attacking defender and Logan the other a number of teams will get the fright of their lives. "

"How the score at half time remained goalless mystified everyone, the conversations around the ground all were of the same opinion, this is what football should be about and as similar to last season as a Lada to a Rolls Royce. "

"If we play like that every game, we will be in the top 6, without a doubt, we were a joy to watch. Just need to find that goal to kill off the game, but that will come. "

Most of the time these supporters are ultra critical, so you will have some idea of how well Brentford played. However, a word of warning, I am trying to give you an idea of their potential, they are not the finished product yet, but are getting there and are they are only going to get stronger. They had eight players missing on Tuesday, maybe four would definitely have started and the club desperately needed another striker. This was addressed with the loan signing of David Clarkson from Bristol City and I am assuming he will start alongside Donaldinho ( Clayton Donaldson ) today. When everyone is fit, the squad is going to look awesome by League 1 standards and Uwe Rosler will have his work cut out trying to keep everyone happy.

Preston are unbeaten since the first day of the season and have won their last five starts , they are amongst the title favourites, so this will be a huge test for both clubs . They rotated their squad in midweek, yet won 2-0 at highflying Charlton Athletic, they kept key player Neil Mellor on the bench for that one, so he is bound to be fresh and raring to go today. Bees will be keeping close tabs on him, in matches where he has started Mellor has had an incredible 32% of all Preston's attempts on goal this season and if the home side can keep him quiet, they will stifle a lot of the attacking threat. No "official bet" from me, but Brentford with the draw no bet ( level ball) option at circa 1.83 is the only way I could lean. One day soon all these chances are going to drop for the Bees and the quality of opposition will matter little. Visiting fans will probably not be too happy to see Andy D'Urso in charge, they have lost the last four matches ihe has been in the middle, without scoring a single goal..... same again please !

Now, finally, for some ( red type) bets ....... In the Championship I have to take........... XXXXXX
Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TUESDAY .....

I have previewed five matches today, putting up two strong bets, I cannot post either of those on here, but the other three are below. Huge, huge week in prospect for me and I am contemplating two maximum stake selections, one at 3.75 and another at 11.0. Champions League, Europa League, two rounds of lower league football this week, golf, NFL etc ......... it doesn't get any better than this !

I watched quite a bit of Colchester United's last two starts against Scunthorpe United and Leyton Orient, they collected a point from each, but should have lost both. Scunny played them off the park and even reduced to ten men were the better team, Orient fell behind and were a bit low on confidence being without a win in the league, but dominated the second half and found a late equaliser after hitting the woodwork three times.This is a big game for Brentford, they face a potential title challenger at Griffin Park on saturday and three points tonight will enable them to go into that game in a far more relaxed frame of mind. The Bees are going to change things around tonight and go with a far more adventurous line up. It will definitely be two up front and probably Harry Forrester too, playing in a slightly withdrawn role, which is his preferred position. Blair Adams and Michael Llera should both make their starting debuts, Adams is a very offensive left sided defender who will add to the attacking options, the Bees have chased him for two months and he is seen as the "missing link", the loan is initially for three months. Time for a commanding performance from the Bees, United usually come to GP and look to shut up shop, but seem more expansive under John Ward this year. A game the Bees really ought to win. Brentford -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line.

Going back to Leyton Orient, they finally look to have turned the corner after a terrible start to the season, they lost confidence after a 5-0 thumping at Brentford, but were really not that bad that day and could have gone in at the break ahead ! They did some quite good business in the summer, bringing in experienced players who should have improved them overall, but for whatever reason they have not gelled as a team until recently. Tonight they host Bournemouth who are in freefall, sooner or later selling so many players was going to catch up with them and it has..... big time, losing five league games in a row, conceding 13 goals in total, at least two in each. Last straw for home fans was the 3-0 loss to Chesterfield, previously without a win and they protested afterwards, which ended up with an on pitch slagging match between chairman and supporters. O's have played well in road draws with Chesterfield ( good form line) and Colchester ( where they deserved the win) and finally got a few goals in a 3-2 Carling Cup defeat of Bristol Rovers before that. Last week they added Tottenham Hotspur keeper Ben Alnwick ( one month),Huddersfield Town midfielder Tom Clarke on loan and striker Kevin Lisbie on a short-term deal. All three started at Colchester and the improvement in performance was immediate, dominating very long periods. I take them to get a much needed three points and for the visitors to replace Orient at the foot of the table. Leyton Orient -0.5 2.14 asian line.

With Milan and Barcelona in their group, it is very difficult to see Viktoria Plzen or BATE Borisov sitting back tonight and three points will be seen as essential if either harbour any thoughts of making the knockout stage of the competition. Hosts do have goals in them, that we know and scored 18 in qualification, including nine against FCK and Rosenborg, two teams with a lot of Champions League experience. All of their home games went "over" and they conceded in each, the first goal in the last two, before recording come from behind wins. BATE made the group stage three years ago and that was a real group of death with Juve, Real Madrid and Zenit their opponents, they will be pleased that they are joined in the role of whipping boys by Plzen and with both having achieved their aim ( dream in Plzen's case) of reaching this stage, they should be able to play without too much pressure and look for the win tonight. I do not think the hosts can keep any experienced european team out for 90 minutes, so we should see goals. "over" 2.25 goals 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

SATURDAY NOTES ...... written 20.06 Friday

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 10TH

As regular readers know I am not a big fan of Wycombe Wanderers, they were a little fortunate to have got promotion ahead of Shrewsbury Town last season IMO and do not appear to have got over their defensive woes this campaign. I saw them three times last season and they left some huge gaps at the back on home soil, really struggling to defend against any side with a little pace out wide and able to pass the ball in the final third. I heard that they were poor against Bury who were running them ragged around the penalty area at Adams Park recently and it was the same story against Nottingham Forest when we backed the visitors in the Carling Cup a couple of weeks back. It is not like they are creating too much at the other end of the pitch, with Wanderers having the fewest attempts on goal in League 1, actually they have managed 13 fewer than the next lowest, ten less if we only count those on target and are averaging almost five per game fewer than today's opponents, the mighty Brentford FC .

The Bees have done some very useful loan business this week with the addition of Miguel Llera a central defender from Blackpool and Blair Adams an England U20 international left back from Sunderland whom Brentford have been chasing for months, but he picked up a knock and the Bees had to wait. The pair are very mobile , good technically and look fantastic additions to an already strong squad. We saw the benefits of that last week when they went to Walsall ( 7-3-3 at home in the previous eight months) missing six starters and came away with all three points. Now they have terrific options in almost every position ( maybe a little short up front just now, but that will be addressed this coming week I understand, with a back up striker coming in) and I expect them to beat this average Wycombe team. Bees fans always make this short trip in large numbers and should make up around 30% of the crowd and 90% of the noise. Hopefully Uwe Rosler and team have done their homework, I know they watched them in the JPT Trophy in midweek, but quite a few players were rested, but a look at the Bury and Forest videos and they have been going over them at Griffin Park, should tell them all they need to know. The Bees match up well here and off level ball they have to be my pick. 1.5 units Brentford 1.86 level ball asian line.

I must hold my hands up and admit I thought that Keith Hill would have got more out of Barnsley, the early signs were good and pre season went well, but they have yet to find that form in the regular season, especially up front and they have failed to score in five of their seven starts, posting just one win, which came at Reading where the home side missed two penalties in the first half and keeper Luke Steele was in amazing form, making at least five world class saves. They are without five players today, at least three of whom would have started and Hill once again has limited options. His Leicester City counterpart Sven GE has no such problems and has been signing up all and sundry, making full use of the cheque book of Vichai Raksriaksorn . He added £4m Jermaine Beckford to his striking options during the transfer window and apparently also put in a circa £7m bid for Jelavic from Glasgow Rangers. Having scored nine in their last three starts anyway, including three against promotion rivals Southampton, they will fancy their chances at Oakwell, where the Tykes have already conceded three to the Saints and are yet to claim a point. City have a very tough sequence of games ahead, with their next five matches coming against Brighton, Cardiff, Middlesbrough, Derby and Birmingham, all high flying and / or amongst the promotion favourites, so will be going hell for leather for maximum points today. City did the double over Barnsley last year scoring six in the process and look a little happier on the road at present, away from the pressure of the King Power Stadium, where the level of expectation is huge. David Nugent is sidelined, so Beckford will come straight in and look to get back to his free scoring ways. Big difference in class, hard to see any Barnsley player getting into the City team and the visitors should take the points here. Leicester City -0.5 ball 2.0 + ... there is some 2.05 in places.

I like the way that Wolverhampton Wanderers have approached the season so far and hope that Mick McCarthy will continue with the attacking policy and look to take the game to teams, especially at Molineux. Today they host Tottenham Hotspur who will be going all out for the win after having plenty of chances early, but ultimately losing easily to both Manchester clubs in their only two starts to date. Spurs will have new boys Scott Parker and Emmanuel Adebayor in the starting line up, but be without Rafael van der Vaart. Spurs suffered in the Manchester City game without a holding midfielder, Nasri and Silva coming in from out wide caused them huge problems, Wolves keep a lot of width, so that should not be a concern today, but Spurs have Parker now in any case. Goals are on the cards here, last year saw six shared in this fixture and ten in total across the two games, both look much stronger going forward at present.... "over" 2.75 goals 2.33 asian line.

I am not going to really discuss the ........... going to leave the rest of the notes for regulars,there were two further selections, including a MAXIMUM double stake bet for this afternoon.

In the Pre Match notes ( sent 14.15), I will be looking at WEST HAM UNITED- PORTSMOUTH, BURNLEY- MIDDLESBROUGH, PETERBOROUGH UNITED- HULL CITY and STOKE CITY - LIVERPOOL.

Good Luck.

contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

FRIDAY ......... TAKEN FROM TODAY'S DAILY NOTES

In the Irish Premier League leaders Shamrock Rovers entertain Sligo who still hold title hopes of their own. Rovers are the best team in Ireland, I have little doubt of that and they believe it too, any doubts were wiped out in the last fortnight with a famous win at Partizan Belgrade in the Europa League and a 6-0 cup win over UCD when they were without nine players ! That has given them an horrendous fixture schedule, but they are not complaining and strengthened the squad in the transfer window adding Rohan Ricketts who has EPL experience and Jim Paterson with over 300 SPL and Championship games under his belt, massive additions to an already strong squad, with a couple of players being closely watched by EPL scouts. Rovers play another key league fixture at St Patrick's on Monday, at home to Rubin Kazan on Thursday and an Irish Cup quarter final next weekend !

They could open up a five point lead at the top tonight and effectively kill off a major rival in the process, the bonus is that will give them some breathing space with the schedule and I think they will be going all guns blazing for the points.They are without 3-4 players tonight and key player Billy Dennehy also looks doubtful, but they have plenty of options and hungry alternatives looking to get in and maybe hold on to a place for the huge games with Rubin and Tottenham this month. Rovers are unbeaten in 13 home starts in this series and are 10-3-2 against Sligo under coach Michael O'Neill, who has the extra incentive of this being his 100th match in charge tonight. Home win. Shamrock Rovers -0.5 ball 2.00 + asian line.

In New York no bet for me, but I do expect Andy Murray to see off John Isner in double quick time. The giant american has yet to take a set off Murray in two meetings and in their Australian Open meeting last year, never looked like breaking the British player's serve. This is Isner's first grand slam quarter final and he is bound to be nervous, Murray will get him running and try to take the pace off the ball, Isner knows that ( see the question from yesterday's post match interview below), but dealing with it is quite another matter. The american really rode his luck at times in his four set defeat of Gilles Simon, with the frenchman breaking serve five times and Isner winning three tie breaks, if Isner gives Murray half as many chances, this will be over very quickly.

Q. Could you elaborate on that as far as the difference in your style and Andy's and the challenge of playing him?

JOHN ISNER: Yeah, you know, I played Andy -- I played him in the Australia Open in 2010, and, you know, he beat me pretty easily, because he -- a lot of times, he -- you know, he did against me that time. He would kind of take the air out of the ball and hit a lot of short angles and got me moving. You know, he kinda just was going body blow after body blow against me out there, because he was just not really hitting the ball that hard but and definitely moving me around. I'm going to have to change a couple things up. You know, he's one of the best returners in the game, so I'm going to have to serve my best. When I do get my chances on the return, I will have to take 'em.

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

SUNDAY UPDATE....

Bit late with my notes today, but the email has just been sent, please check your inbox immediately, selections at 2.02, 2.36 and 2.20.

With regard to the blog, the "over" bet was landed yesterday, but Scunthope United had to settle for a draw, they played for 50 minutes with ten men despite which they dominated, with 20 attempts on goal and have to be rated a very unlucky half stake "loser".

Brentford won 1-0 at Walsall, they have yet to hit their stride this season and have only really played to their potential on one occasion. As they are in fourth , just four points off the top, that is very encouraging for those on at 34.0 to win and 9.0 ( now 4.5) for promotion. The coach has also made a couple of errors IMO, but this is a learning process for him and hopefully, he along with the squad, is going to get stronger the longer the season goes. To win at Walsall with 6-7 players missing augurs well.

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ....

Starting in League 1 , Scunthorpe United did us a favour in midweek with a relatively easy 2-0 defeat of Hartlepool United ( see below) , I think they will have taken a lot of confidence out of that, their first league win of the campaign and now that they have finally kept a cleansheet, I expect them to push on and they are a team I want to keep on the right side of for a couple of weeks. Their forward play has been really good, they are a ball playing side as you would expect from an Alan Knill coached team and they have enjoyed a lot of possession and been creating plenty of goal scoring chances, 44 on target, 39 off target and hitting the woodwork four times, all of which are division high totals.

They are averaging 7.2 attempts per start more than Colchester United which is huge, the visitors form has been very up and down, but one consistent has been their failure to keep a cleansheet, conceding in all seven starts, at an average of 2.14 per game. Hosts were the busier ahead of deadline day signing French midfielder Damien Mozika from Bury ( Knill's fomer club) and taking young Everton reserve defender Shane Duffy on a one-month loan. Duffy is very promising and should do well, United spent a six figure fee for Mozika ( who is very easy to spot on the field... see photo) who attracted interest from several clubs. 1.5 units Scunthorpe United -0.25 ball 1.88 + asian line

In League 2 .... I wrote prior to their match with Crystal Palace ( see below) about the lack of attempts on target that Crawley Town had managed and that they could not keep on scoring at the rate they had and they lost that tie and two subsequent games, scoring just once in the process and that came from the penalty spot. However, now it has swung the other way IMO, they are creating plenty but just not hitting the target and that can also only continue so long, they meet another attack minded team today in Bristol Rovers and one against whom you will get chances and this match should produce goals. Only Dagenham & Redbridge have created more than these two and both are prepared to shoot it out if necessary. Rovers are very offensive minded and have defended shambolically at times this season, they conceded three to Leyton Orient in midweek and the O's had only managed that number in six previous outings this season. I will be amazed if both do not score today and this goal line could easily be covered before the half time break ( that is available at 7.0 with William Hill if you are of an adventurous nature), but I will stick with the traditional quote "Over" 2.5 goals 1.92 + asian line.

Good Luck.

written August 30th......
We discussed Scunthorpe United last week, they are a team slowly getting their act together and there has been plenty to like about their last three starts, not least the 3-2 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday on saturday, which came just 40 hours after a Thursday cup tie against an EPL side. To their great credit they kept plugging away despite going two down early and almost earned a draw, they were camped in the Wednesday half for most of the second period , were denied a penalty ( originally given by the referee) and finished the stronger, which is a testament to their high fitness levels, a throwback to when Southampton boss Nigel Adkins was in charge. They have created more goalscoring chances than anyother Division 1 side and really need a win now to kick start their season and I fancy they will be up for this tonight, Pool have a smallish squad and are without five options this evening. 1.5 units Scunthorpe United -0.25 ball 1.87 +

written August 23rd ....
I will not put this up as an "official bet", as I would like to see some confirmed line ups, but Crystal Palace who are very strong at Selhurst Part look very big to beat big spending Crawley Town. Hosts are 11-5-2 here in the last ten months conceding just 14 goals, considering they looked booked for relegation for much of last season, that was tremendous consistency. They have three wins from four starts this season and led in the single loss, already matching their road tally of wins ( one) for the whole of last season. They have a good mixture of experience and "hungry young players" who are "very exciting going forward" in the words of boss Dougie Freedman, they have a big home game with Blackpool at the weekend, but I would be happy to take some of this 2.29 if I knew they were naming a strong starting eleven, I think oddsmakers have gone too overboard about the visitors and that there will be value in opposing them in the coming weeks if we pick our spots . Some of these stats can be a little misleading, especially early season, but the ten Crawley league goals have come from only 16 attempts on target and that is a ratio which is completely unsustainable.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM MY EARLY SATURDAY NOTES... WRITTEN FRIDAY 15.51

SATURDAY AUGUST 27TH

Next email will be my "pre match notes" at around 14.15 UK time Saturday for the games we are following in the first half tomorrow, with an half time update to follow. The matches covered will be Chelsea- Norwich City, Portsmouth- Cardiff City, Ipswich Town - Leeds United and Brentford - Tranmere Rovers.

Going to start in the Championship and the Middlesbrough- Coventry City match up. We discussed Boro last week ahead of their home game with Birmingham City ( notes reproduced at the foot of this email), they were a goal down at the break, which came against the run of play, but were strong in the second half and led by a commanding performance by Faris Haroun who came on at the half, they ran in three unanswered goals. Tony Mowbray was keen to keep the momentum up and took a strong squad to highflying and high scoring Peterborough United in a midweek Carling Cup tie and will have been delighted with a 2-0 win, not least by the cleansheet. It also meant that classy Julio Arca who recently re-signed got another 30 minutes under his belt and should be approaching full fitness.

I really like these players Arca, Haroun, Bennett, Emnes all have a real touch of class and Mowbray has instilled a sense of belief in the whole squad, this is personified by being the only league team to twice come back from a goal down this season. They are on a very long unbeaten run and with this their last home start for 28 days ( international break and two really tough road games coming up), they will be desperate for the three points this afternoon. City arrive without a win in five games in all competitions and just a single league point, which came in a 0-0 home draw with another winless team Watford, with the Hornets having far more chances, including 11 shots on target. Money is very tight at the Ricoh Arena and takeover bids for the club have been going on for months, they lost their three classiest players in the summer and replaced them with two lower league "cheap" signings, they desperately need some investment and until it comes, anyone with top six aspirations should be looking to beat City. Boro are averaging 4.75 attempts per game on target more than City which is huge. 1.5 units Middlesbrough -0.75 goals 1.90 asian line.

In Division 1 the Bury- Charlton Athletic fixture features two teams who like to play the correct way and should be attractive to watch. Charlton were very busy in the summer with "new" boss Chris Powell bringing in virtually an entire new squad, this looks to have worked out well, as they have hit the ground running and won their first three starts, before sharing the spoils with Scunthorpe United last week, after leading 2-0 with just 17 minutes left to play. I have just watched extended highlights of that and to be honest, it would have been unjust if Scunny hadn't got something from a game they dominated for significant periods and in which, created the greater number of chances. United boss Alan Knill has got his team playing some nice stuff and very similar to how Bury played under him, which could be key this afternoon. I got very good reports about the slick quick passing football Bury played at Wycombe last week and coach Richie Barker who took over from Knill has been making full use of his contacts in the game and has signed some quality youngsters on loan, including Mark Cullen ( Hull City), Ashley Eastham ( Blackpool) and Kudus Oyenuga ( Tottenham). Cullen, Oyenuga along with the prolic Andy Bishop and Ryan Lowe ( who is on fire atm !) give them a real offensive threat. Athletic will face a similar side to the one that troubled them so much last week and a point here would probably be seen as a good result by Powell. Hosts go to Sheffield United next week, infact, three of their next four starts are on the road and their next home game is the "massive" local derby with Rochdale ( no love lost there), so as tough as this might look on paper, it is about as easy as it will get in the next month. I have to take the home team with the draw no bet option. Bury draw no bet 2.05 + ..... up to 2.10 in a place or two.

Stepping down a division ............the rest of my notes are unavailable....

Good Luck.

written August 21st

I like Tony Mowbray as a manager , he plays very nice football and knows this Championship and more importantly what is required to get out of it, as well as anyone. Money is very tight at Boro, but he has got a talented team together on a shoestring, unearthed a few gems like Marvin Emnes who has scored in every games this season and new signing Belgian international Faris Haroun, who is that most prized of assets, namely a midfielder who can score goals and got them playing a similar style to his wildly successful WBA promotion teams of recent seasons. Middlesbrough use the full width of the pitch and young full back Joe Bennett, who plays in a similar style to Ashley Cole and gets forward at every opportunity plays more like a winger in this very offensive team, he already has an England U21 call up this year and before Mowbray arrived, wanted to go out on loan to get a game, which is some indication of the effect TM has had. Birmingham lost a lot of talent in the summer and this small squad are stretched after a gruelling week travel wise, they were in Madeira late on Thursday and travelled all the way up to the North East yesterday, so a very strange and disruptive week with limited prep time for this tough game. They remain without Jerome, Zigic, King, Mutch and Gomis and are bound to be distracted by their upcoming Europa League match, their first at St Andrews in almost 50 years. Blues have been a little more adventurous on the road under Chris Hughton, which should suit Boro and it is the home win for me. Middlesbrough -0.5 2.05 + .... there is still some 2.10 around in places.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ....

I send out free copies of my daily notes on a semi regular basis to everyone in my database, if you are not already on this list, please send me an email stencelwade@btinternet.com and I will add you immediately. If you have previously received freebie emails, then you are already registered.

Really busy couple of days in prospect ahead of the transfer window closing and I expect some very big late deals to be done.

Brentford signed the striker they have been chasing for the last month or two, with US striker Mike Grella joining from Leeds United yesterday. In turn the Bees have allowed Charlie MacDonald to join MK Dons, he was a crowd favourite at Griffin Park scoring 40 goals in 111 appearances, including 18 in their promotion season. However, he was set to play a supporting role this season and his lack of pace was becoming an issue. I think this is terrific business for Brentford and that Grella will be perfect for the new style Bees, having said that, I wish Charlie M well except when he faces his former club ! The domino effect continued with Dons striker Sam Buldock signing for West Ham and there are proably another 100 deals like this in the pipeline, with teams waiting to get someone in before selling and so on..... Scott Parker/ Luka Modric ?

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

FRIDAY ....

I put up two selections for tonight early this morning, the only one I planned to post on here has been backed from 1.94 into 1.77 so all the real value has gone, but you can find those notes below, along with some minor notes (no official selection) for an Irish Cup game .

The Boulogne selection, like almost every bet I have put up in the last week, has been possible to close out before kick off for a decent profit.

That is great, but it is making it very difficult for me to preview anything on the blog.

I have just ( 15.51) sent out my Saturday notes by email, three full previews and selections ( red type) and a pair of minor suggestions ( black type) and I will try and post one of these on here tomorrow, so please check back.

Good Luck.
Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Going to start with the Amiens- Boulogne fixture, not much distance between these two clubs and an easy and quick journey on the bus for the visitors. Hosts have just returned to the second tier of french football after two seasons in the wilderness of National and are struggling to come to terms with life at the higher level, they are yet to post a win and are bottom of the table after four starts.

Early days yet and they have definitely not been helped by injuries and suspension, but short of numbers again tonight, it might take them a little longer to get going. They are without three starters this evening including the suspended Rafik Saifi and captain Thomas Mienniel, who is absolutely key given the other absences is a big doubt, but has been included in the 18 man squad. Boulogne have opened with four draws and in very similar fashion to last season, when they drew their first six starts on the road, where like many teams in this league they operate a safety first approach, they are without Damour ( suspended) and Lachor tonight, but the very experienced Fabien comes into contention and they seem far better equipped to handle these losses. I have to take Boulogne the draw specialists getting the full half ball handicap start +0.5 ball 1.94.

With regard to the Irish Cup games tonight I do not have any official selections, but the derby game between Drogheda United and Dundalk is sure to be the usual blood and thunder high scoring affair, the pair always produce. The last nine h2h meetings have all produced at least three goals at an average of 3.89 goals per game. Neither will be concerned about the league and will give their all this evening. Hosts are booked for the relegation playoffs, being 13 clear of the automatic relegation spot and 20 adrift or survival and Dundalk can only finish either 5th ( unlikely) or 6th or 7th, so this evening is one of the few remaining highlights. The "over" option looks ok of course, but the quote that really caught my attention was the 4.0 for Drogheda to score "over" 1.5 goals with Bet 365, something they have done in seven of the last eleven h2h games, two of which were cup ties.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY ......

In the post below are my notes for yesterday's action, sent to my regulars at 15.17 on Monday, a full 28 hours + before kick off.

They do not show a profit, the Crystal Palace preview was just a "suggestion" not an official selection, so doesn't count. The two selections showed a loss of 0.63 units, so, in my official stats, the day is a loser.

However, if you can read them and think that the content is "losing information" and /or of no value, then I suggest that gambling is not for you and that you find a new hobby or business. It is not always solely about the bottom line, over the long term yes, but not over a few matches and the basic content of the preview is always more important than the tip..... always !

I have had to censor some of the Palace post as it contains some really solid news about Crawley that regulars will be able to use when the time is right.

The information and previews were very good for both Woking and Forest, it matters not that only one won, I would have preferred both, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Both teams traded some 20 clicks lower before kickoff and in asian markets, they are very valuable positions to have and the option to trade out with a guaranteed profit is/was there.

I am not able to post much on the blog nowadays, but you had five years of massive profits on here and there will still be the occasional gem, so please keep checking back and remember, always try to read the full post and not just the money line.

BTW I have just two selections for today, sent out to subscribers yesterday afternoon, odds were 1.87 and 2.25 and they now trade at 1.67 and 1.97, if they both lose are they bad bets ?

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

MY TUESDAY NOTES .....

TUESDAY AUGUST 22ND

I have three matches to discuss today, two Carling Cup and one non league match, I did have a good look at the Champions League fixtures, but have decided to pass.

In the Blue Square South, Eastleigh, who are having a shocking time of things, entertain Woking who are unbeaten after three starts, creating a lot of chances in the process and I do not see much changing this evening.

Hosts are 0-0-3 with a -7 goal difference and got a real tonking from a fairly limited Tonbridge Angels team at the weekend. This followed on from a very long midweek trip to Truro and back in midweek and 14-16 hours minimum on a bus, inside a four day period to get two beatings , must leave confidence and energy levels at a very low ebb, especially as they played 70 minutes with ten men and finished with nine players in the second of these. That means that an already skinny squad with just 8-9 senior players and a whole host of youngsters, is going to be further stretched tonight. When young players lose their confidence, it is very hard to get it back and this squad is really struggling.

Eastleigh had a poor end to last season, conceding a league high 19 home goals in the second half of the campaign and after a huge cost cutting exercise in the summer have carried that form ( and then some !) over to this season. Expectation levels were very low pre season and the coach described his job as "like climbing up Everest in flip flops", he was not helped by having three different assistants in pre season, the first two realising the enormity of the job and leaving to join other clubs !

Woking signed a whole crop of talented former players back to the club and several others who know what is required to get out of this division and are intent to finally return to the Conference. They opened with a fine 5-0 win at Sutton United GOAL HIGHLIGHTS and have since collected four points from two home starts, with a lot of goal scoring chances in each. In Ademola, Binns, Sole, Hammond and Cowan-Hall they have a huge amount of attacking flair and pace going forward and it might well be that they will have more joy on the road, when they have space to exploit. They were 15-3-3 in the second half of last season, which over a full campaign would have seen them win the title by 14 points and having started so well and boosted the squad considerably, they are not going to be too far off first place this time round. I have to make them a solid bet to record another comfortable road win. 1.5 units Woking -0.5 ball 1.96 asian line.

Next up is Wycombe Wanderers- Nottingham Forest. I am not keen on this Wanderers team, I saw them play three times last season and they were second best on each occasion, quite how they got promoted ahead of say Shrewsbury Town was hard to understand, but after 46 games I guess they deserved it. They have been a bit of a yo-yo team between Div 1 and 2 in recent seasons and will want to give priority to survival this season, especially after losing 2-0 at home to Bury at the weekend and losing their long unbeaten ( a lot of draws) record. They face two of the division favourites in Huddersfield Town and Brentford in consecutive matches next and could quickly find themselves in trouble, if they do not pick up something from those two games. This is an attractive fixture for them, but not one that has really attracted much public attention and they will not take any chances with players carrying knocks and there are quite a few. Defensively they leave plenty of gaps at the back and are a little slow to close players down, the quicker Championship visitors should enjoy the space and get a lot of joy going forward.

Forest were not in the 2-2 draw with Leicester City for the first 30 minutes, but there was plenty to like about the way they battled back from two down and whilst they seem sure to rotate a little tonight, what they really need is to build some momentum and a couple of key players urgently need some game time. Whomever starts will want to take advanatge, with Steve McClaren stating his intention to get busy in the transfer market this week, with three "stellar signings" about to be made. At Middlesbrough the coach always took the cup competitions seriously and I see no change in that this evening. Nottingham Forest -0.25 1.87 asian line.

I will not put this up as an "official bet", as I would like to see some confirmed line ups, but Crystal Palace who are very strong at Selhurst Part look very big to beat big spending Crawley Town. Hosts are 11-5-2 here in the last ten months conceding just 14 goals, considering they looked booked for relegation for much of last season, that was tremendous consistency. They have three wins from four starts this season and led in the single loss, already matching their road tally of wins ( one) for the whole of last season. They have a good mixture of experience and "hungry young players" who are "very exciting going forward" in the words of boss Dougie Freedman, they have a big home game with Blackpool at the weekend, but I would be happy to take some of this 2.29 if I knew they were naming a strong starting eleven, I think oddsmakers have gone too overboard about the visitors and that there will be value in opposing them in the coming weeks if we XXXX XXXXX X X XXXXX XXXX .



I am not covering any "in running" games on Tuesday, but will be going to either the Wycombe Wanderers or Maidenhead- Thurrock ( BSS) games ( both are local to me) to try and learn something for the future,so will not be wasting my time !

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

Carlisle United won for us yesterday and to be honest, I have been on fire over the last week.

Nine of my last eleven selection look to have won, I say look to have won as one which I put up as a solid 1.5 unit selection on Thursday, has not quite won yet, but is trading at circa 1.03, so could be traded out for virtually full profit and is a winner in all but name.

I have sent almost 75% of you a free copy of my notes on one day this week, every one of which has made a very good profit and hopefully, those who got an email today will also have some joy.

However, the really big news of the weekend is that Brentford beat Leyton Orient 5-0 and are up to fourth in the table. I know a couple of Orient supporters so this result is of extra value to me and I will be reminding them of the score on a daily basis this week !

Hopefully they will not be reading this, as I have to say that the result was a little flattering to the Bees, with the O's quite possibly the better team in the first half. But Brentford will take a lot of confidence from such a resounding victory and can build on this.

They have not really taken their pre season form into the league games so far, so to have nine points on board already is a real bonus and very encouraging.

Bees boss Uwe Rosler and Peter Gilham are very excited by the result ( see photo ) ! I wish I could explain how funny this photograph is, but you really have to know PG to get full value. So it is reproduced solely for my own amusement !

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ....

Taken from my notes written on Friday @ 16.16 .....the first of these is the Division 1 match between Carlisle United and Bournemouth, the Cherries have done us a favour recently, but they continue to sell players and the situation is getting a little silly now. They lost the cream of the promotion side and then coach Eddie Howe left for Burnley and he has taken another couple of key players with him including star player Danny Ings who signed this week. They sold Pearce, Wiggins, Hollands Stewart and Robinson in the summer, now Ings . If that was not bad enough, after taking in another big transfer fee ( £1m for Ings) the club have come out today and said they cannot afford two first team goalkeepers !

They make the very long journey north today on the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Stevenage, who are very physical and play at a terrific tempo, so far from ideal midweek opponents and Bournemouth will have to start tomorrow without their suspended captain Adam Barrett who is their most experienced defender, with such a young backline he will be sorely missed. A real tough start to the season and a handful of injuries for this already wafer thin squad and 30 minutes with ten men against one of the fittest lower league teams, followed by seven hours on a bus today, leaves them with it all to do today.

United opened with a frightful 3-0 home loss to Notts County, but have avoided defeat in three road games since, they kept cleansheets in the last two with young on loan Newcastle United full back James Tavernier impressing in both . They could do with another striker and I understand a deal might still be done today, regardless of that, I rate them the superior side and feel this is probably a very good time to be facing the Cherries. Host are tight at the back and well organised, but time for them to switch to 4-4-2 at home, instead of the preferred diamond formation and to really go for the win, the lack of goals is a concern, but is offset partly by the quarter ball quote . Carlisle United -0.25 ball 1.97 asian line.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

TUESDAY UPDATE ....

These are basic pre match notes, no selection, just a starting point for my "in running" analysis.
I will send an update at half time by email , along with first half notes and any selections for the second half, within a minute or two of the first 45 minutes ending.

I have a contact at all three games.

LEEDS UNITED - HULL CITY

City got back on track with a win at Ipswich Town where they enjoyed a lot of possession and they are probably happy to be back on the road tonight having gone 8-6-1 in their last 15 league starts away from the KC Stadium. They were unfortunate to draw blank in their opener with Blackpool and have a good mix of experience and young talent. United are in a bit of a mess at present and very short up front with Gradel, Howson, Becchio, Somna and Paynter all unavailable, they signed Andy Keogh on loan yesterday until the end of the year, which does increase their options slightly, but one goal and just 13 attempts in two outings are a far cry from last season's free scoring team and it is compounding by a misfiring defence, with too few players in their natural position.

Line movement: Very little activity today.

Team news : Keogh and Nunez start for United.

PORTSMOUTH - READING

Hard to see too much being decided early in this game. Reading earned points from 58% of the games in which they trailed at the break last season and started in similar vein this campaign coming back from two down at home to Millwall. Portsmouth, as we have discussed many times are very much a second half team, they snatched a late equaliser at Middlesbrough on matchday 1 and only a missed penalty as time expired, stopped them from repeating the feat at home to Brighton on saturday. They deserved at least a point from that and with Jason Pearce back from suspension, Benjani having turned down EPL side Blackburn Rovers to make a return to Pompey and Dave Kitson also likely to be available to some degree, they have far more options tonight. Reading earned a fine win at Leicester City over the weekend and have three points more than Portsmouth in the bag, but both teams have had the same number ( 20) of attempts on goal and whilst this is likely to be another transition year for Pompey, they do retain a touch of class and I was very impressed by their workrate and attitude on saturday. Reading are unbeaten in nine road starts, but have not started the season with three unbeaten starts since 2003.

Line Movement: The "over" 2.25 goal line has been supported 1.90 into 1.80.

Team news: Pompey Kitson starts Benjani on bench.

Pompey: Ashdown; Ben Haim, Halford, Mokoena, Pearce; Lawrence (c), Mullins, Norris, Varney; Kitson, Kanu
Subs: Henderson, Rocha, Ward, Williams, Benjani

Reading: Federici; Griffin, Harte, Khumalo, Pearce; Karacan, Leigertwood, Kebe, McAnuff (c); Hunt, Manset

EXETER CITY - BRENTFORD

This looks likely to be a tough season for City, they have under gone something of a cost cutting regime at St James Park, have lost the prolific Jamie Cureton and are terribly short of striking options at present. They played well enough from box to box at home to MK Dons on saturday, but their lack of firepower was all too apparent and the sixteen attempts on goal they have created this season ( nine less than the Bees) include only a miserly five on target, only Wycombe have had fewer. They also appear a little distracted by the visit of Liverpool in the Carling Cup next week and that is overshadowing their league fixtures at present. Brentford made some odd changes at half time in the 2-0 defeat at Sheffield United, which I covered yesterday, those changes were purely tactical and remain very hard to understand, Rosler felt the Bees were giving the ball away too easily up front apparently. I hope and feel that lessons were learned, if Brentford are to get involved at the business end of this season, this is exactly the sort of match they need and ought to be winning. Interesting to see if Brentford start with Myles Weston, he has done very little in recent starts, but if you believe in "horses for courses" he has given the City defence a torrid time in recent meetings and I doubt they will be looking forward to facing him tonight. Bees scored six in two victories here last season ( league and cup) and also missed two penalties !

Line Movement : Lines vitually unchanged all day.

Team news: Weston and Forrester who chose Brentford over Ajax are on the bench. City still look short of attacking options.

Brentford:- Lee; Logan, Legge, Osborne, Woodman; Saunders, Douglas, Reeves, McGinn; Donaldson, Alexander

Subs:- Moore, Eger, O'Connor, Weston, Forrester

Exeter City:- Krysiak; Tully, Archibald-Henville, Duffy, Golbourne; Sercombe, Dunne, Noble, Shephard; Logan, Bignall

Subs:- Pidgely, Jones, Coles, Bauza, Nichols

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

TUESDAY .....

I eventually previewed four of today's matches overnight and sent out three solid selections. Two have shortened some 17 "clicks" , the third has actually frifted by three as I type, so overall very much on the right side of the early exchanges. I am also following three matches in "running" tonight and writing some pre match notes for these at the moment. It is such a strong betting day that I will post something on here a little nearer kick off, but am unsure exactly what at present. Please check back if you have time/inclination.

Good Luck.

MONDAY .......

Looking back at the three matches I previewed below, the "over" was landed well inside the hour ( 41 attempts on goal !) and Bournemouth beat Wednesday 2-0, but Aldershot lost 1-0 at home to Northampton.

The Shots were caught cold and a goal down inside 50 seconds, they struggled through the first half, but came on strong after the break and had a lot of chances to at least draw level and if that goal had come, I feel they could have gone on to win. They hit the woodwork twice, had any number of attempts blocked, were denied twice by fine saves and had a big shout for a penalty waved away. The Cobblers hardly had an attempt worthy of the name in the last hour and Dean Holdsworth's side will consider themselves hard done by.

An amazing midweek football programme ahead of us, with a full round of english lower league games and some attractive looking Champions and Europa League games. I have already started writing previews of five, maybe six matches for tomorrow alone and have two strong bets lined up, I may post one of these online tomorrow, but if not, please check back towards the end of the week when I am sure to have something of interest.

Good Luck.

Written Saturday 09.15 .....

I have two further selections for today both in League 2, the first will not surprise anyone too much and is for Aldershot Town who host Northampton Town. We have discussed the Shots several times recently and they did us a very big favour in winning at Bradford last weekend ( preview below), three points were great, but the performance was fantastic and very encouraging for boss Dean Holdsworth and his team, fitting reward for all the hard work put in over the summer.

They were very disappointed that their cup tie with West Ham was called off in midweek, but it has given them extended recovery time and also enabled them to get Luke Guttridge fit for today, he is arguably their most important player and will be very motivated facing his former club. Guttridge is very busy in midfield and doesn't give opponents a moments peace, if there was to be any complaints about the win at Bradford it was as the second half wore on, City got too much time on the ball in the middle of the park, that would not have happened if he had played. That is a fully fit squad for Holdsworth and with another fruitful weeks training under their belts, I have to take them at nice looking odds.

The visitors opened with a 0-0 draw at home to a much changed and weakened Accrington Stanley team last week, but put that behind them with a cup win at Ipswich Town on Tuesday evening. It was a second string home side, but even so was a fine win for the Cobblers who are turning into cup specialists, however, it might not be so easy for them to again raise their game today and they might have to do so without two key players in Akinfenwa and Johnson who both face late tests. This is not cut and dried, the visitors are an improving team, but they have struggled for goals and wins in these bread and butter league games and given the edge in fitness I believe Aldershot have and the extra recovery time, which is probably more use now than in two months time when everyone is on a similar level fitness wise, I have to stick with the Shots at these quotes. Aldershot -0.25 2.09 + .

Good Luck.

Let's start with Bradford City - Aldershot Town, which will not surprise too many of you. I wrote this about Shots in pre season ....
It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.

This was very clear at the weekend when they travelled to Farnborough Town, one of the better BSS teams last season who narrowly missed out on promotion and could easily have swapped places with Tamworth. Shots got better and better as the game progressed and ran out 4-0 winners, with newcomers Michael Rankine and especially Bradley Bubb who is lightning quick and scored 40 goals in 88 starts in the BSS impressing. The difference between how these two clubs have started their preseason is further highlighted by the fact that one of the Tamworth players missed the first week of training as he was still on holiday ! Holdsworth would never have stood for that. hard to see anything other than another away win, with Shots fitness advantage surely telling after the break if not before.

Holdsworth has got his team primed for the campaign , they completed a very productive pre season and travel north in great heart. He added two players to the squad last week with the addition of Anthony Pulis and George Montgomery, both of whom will help bring along the youngsters/ less experienced players at the club. Montgomery was part of the Dagenham & Redbridge promotion winning side of two seasons ago and his silky left foot will be a welcome addition.

City are a sleeping giant at this level, but are set to slumber a little longer, with Peter Jackson having a very big job to turn them around. He has started the process, by bringing whole host of new players in, but almost none have experience of this division, this is a work in progress and City a team in transition. Aldershot +0.25 1.90 is my pick.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Written Friday 09.58 ....

Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool played in the Carling Cup last night, with the home side going through the tie on penlaties following extra time.

The Owls will be making a long trip to the South Coast today, to play a League 1 fixture with Bournemouth tomorrow, a match that will kick off just about 40 hours after they finished work yesterday. That is far from ideal, but only Gary Madine started last night and also in the opening league game with Rochdale, having said that, twelve players were involved in both squads to one degree or another and would have warmed up, sat on the bench, been at least mentally involved and will now face five hours on a bus today, with greatly reduced preparation time.

Do not underestimate this time spent on the motorway, Bournemouth made the short journey to London last Friday and ended up stuck in traffic for eight hours, their preparation was so disrupted that they tried to get their match with Charlton delayed. This was refused and they were never in the game, this is a result you can dismiss from your calculations and the Cherries showed much more what they are capable of in a 5-0 rout of Dagenham in midweek, back on home soil where they are far more comfortable and where they collected 62% of all their points last season, the third best record in the division.

The Cherries had a decent pre season, beating Crystal Palace and Cardiff here and might once again have been underestimated by people, the club have to continually sell players to stay afloat, but also continue to unearth some gems, they are short of striking options, but Lyle Taylor snatched from non league football last season scored six in pre season and another two against the Daggers and I have just seen that Ryan Doble, another young striker signed a short term loan from Southampton yesterday, both will be looking to get involved on saturday.

I cannot quite make Bournemouth an official bet, but given the two extra days rest and lack of travel, plus my huge doubts about Owls boss Gary Megson, which are well documented, I think the home side look solid with the level ball/ draw no bet option at or close to 1.80.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Written Friday 16.21 ......

The schedulers have had fun in League 2 with Bristol Rovers making their first home start of the new campaign under new boss Paul Buckle against his former club Torquay United in a West Country derby !

Buckle who I know quite well from his time at Brentford is very driven to succeed at Rovers, they are a much bigger club and if he could get them back up at the first time of asking, it would look very good on his c.v. He has had a very busy summer signing 14 players , including a couple from his former club and both they, he and the one's left behind will all be out to impress. Think there will be plenty of goals in this, visiting boss Martin Ling has seen his team concede six in two starts and it really could have been more, Burton had a host of chances last week and Southampton stopped at four in midweek. Rovers also have concerns at the back, but looked full of goals at Wimbledon last week. I will be amazed if both do not score ( so, 0-0 it is then !), but prefer the "over" option. 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

UPDATE ....

Message to subscribers, please check your inbox tonight, as soon as the Carling Cup games are over I will send my Wednesday notes. These include two double stake ( maximum bets) at odds of circa 2.40 and 2.75, both of which I am supremely confident about, if there was such a thing as treble stake bets then these would qualify, there are also two other solid selections.

contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

MATCHES OFF ...

Tonight's Carling Cup fixtures between West Ham United- Aldershot Town and Charlton Athletic- Reading have been postponed because of the London riots and the England- Netherlands friendly planned for tomorrow night is likely to follow suit.

Not sure why the Crystal Palace- Crawley Town match has yet to be postponed, as Selhurst Park is very close to some of the worst scenes of rioting. Pretty sure that will also be called off shortly.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

These two previews below were included in my Monday notes, which were written and distributed at 17.30 on Sunday evening, both are now trading significantly shorter.

The Carling Cup takes centre stage tomorrow and first up are two teams we discussed at the weekend, Hereford United and, you guessed it...... Brentford !

United lost 1-0 to Southend United and were a little fortunate not to have lost by a bigger margin and as we discussed, they are a short of numbers and at this stage of the campaign, when games take so much out of players, are far less suited to a match three days later than Brentford.

The Bees played some really nice football against Yeovil Town and will doubtless rotate a little, but have a true squad of at least 22 players and can switch 5-6 ( possibly more) without any loss of ability and those coming in will be very hungry to impress the coaching staff. I also feel that Uwe Rosler will want to keep the momentum up, he has yet to taste defeat as manager of the Bees and will also want to progress in a competition which could really raise his personal profile and he is an ambitious figure.

Odds are really good IMO and unlikely to last, I make them at least -0.25 goal shorter. It is not totally impossible that these two could be three divisions apart next season and even as it stands , ability wise Brentford are at least one and a half divisions better at present.

1.5 units Brentford -0.25 2.16 asian line. I also saw a juicy looking 4.75 for the Bees -1 goal ( traditional handicap) with Bet 365 if you are so inclined, but the asian bet for me.

Next up is the Yorkshire derby between Leeds United and Bradford City. The visitors and their long suffering supporters will be up for this, there are not going to be many glory games for them this season, but they were comprehensively outplayed by Aldershot Town at the weeekend on home soil and will be facing a dangerous, wounded opponent.

United were humiliated by their performance at Southampton on saturday evening and were read the riot act by Simon Grayson afterwards and with this match televised, the last thing they need is another loss on national television. Last season United lost their opener, which was also the late televised fixture, but bounced back in midweek and put four unanswered goals past a fourth tier opponent and will be looking for a similar response on Tuesday.

Hosts are formidable at Elland Road and if they can find a little of the form that saw them put three past Newcastle United just ten days ago, they should win with ease.

In a strange way it is a big game for United, as failure to win is going to heap pressure on them, win and they can relax a little, put last week down to a blip and move on. Grayson is bound to change things round a little, but this is a free scoring team who create chances aplenty, especially on home soil and I take them to beat a visitor very much in a transitional stage.

1.25 units Leeds United -1 ball 2.04 asian line.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SUNDAY .....

The mighty Bees started with a 2-0 win over Yeovil Town and put in a very pleasing performance, when it all clicks for them this season they are going to administer a few thumpings and these are exciting times for Brentford supporters. Potential big players in League 1 Charlton and both Sheffield clubs also opened up with comfortable wins and this division looks set to be a corker ! May the best team win, as long as they reside in TW8 !

Early season big game next weekend when the Bees travel to face Sheffield United at Bramall Lane and I am already looking forward to it !

The following formed part of my notes for today ......

In the SPL Glasgow Celtic travel north to face Aberdeen who are missing key players and made a sluggish start to the new season. The visitors have had great success here in recent times, in a fixture which almost always produces goals. Nine of the last ten starts at Pittodrie have gone "over" with eight producing four or more. It doesn't really matter how the home side approach the game, they have tried keeping it tight, packing the midfield and also going toe to toe, but once the first goal goes in, it always develops into a shoot out, invaribly won by the Hoops.

Home fans are very pessimistic about this one, many are staying away in a sulk about the clubs lack of investment, they are short of maybe three starting players and that is when everyone is available and they are without the suspended Ryan Jack today and at least a couple of Clark, Mawene and Fyvie will either miss out or play at less than 100%. It is a sign of how bad things are at Aberdeen that they are desperate to get them on the pitch, despite missing almost all training this week, the 18 yo Fyvie was sat on the sidelines on Friday, yet coach Craig Brown still wants to try and get the youngster involved. This all smacks of desperation and the Dons look fearful of another big defeat. I think Celtic will win with a degree of comfort, but they are a little skinny on the handicap line, there is always a chance that Aberdeen might suddenly be inspired by the television cameras and a match with one of the Old Firm ,come to life and find a goal or even two, which would probably still not be enough as I can see the pace of the Celtic forwards running riot. However, that is just enough to make me lean towards the "over" 3 goal line, a bet that would have lost once and won eight times in the last ten meeting at this stadium. "Over" 3 goals 2.21 asian line.

I am very happy with and excited by our top ten bet on Zach Johnson in the WGC Bridgestone event ( see below). He shot a tied low round of the day 64 yesterday and is in a 9th place overnight, but just four strokes off the lead, Luke Donald also had a great day and was one of the other two to post a 64, which took him to within three of the lead and a victory for him would be huge for our money list bet. Donald is 10.0 to win and Johnson a massive 48.0, amongst the leading contenders these have been the two best Round 4 players on tour this year. With the englishman ranked 3rd with a 69.0 average and Johnson inside the top ten with 69.46. For either to win they would need to go low again, but both know where the winner's circle is nowadays and it would not surprise me if one or both made a big charge this afternoon. We already have a heavy involvement with ZJ, but if you are not on, or wanted to "waste" a few euros at big outright odds, I would look at these two.

Good Luck.

Written Thursday August 4
The USPGA Tour sees the return of Tiger Woods at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational today, it is still odd to see 20-1 + quotes for Woods, especially at a tournament he has dominated in the past, he claims to be in good shape, but we have to see that on a golf course before getting involved. Zach Johnson is probably a little short off the tee to win this week, but should put in another solid finish. Our man, who you all know I believe is a winner in waiting , has been playing solidly for three months with nine solid tournaments is a row, all were Top 30 finishes ( OK one was 32nd), with four top six placings and a sluggish opening round has cost him badly in four starts. He was 33rd here last year, but finished inside the top twenty in the three previous years ( 15-16-11) which is a very solid record on a course which is not ideal. Having said that, neither was the Open Championship and Johnson was 16th there, with no real history in the event. This is a short field event, with half the number of runners we normally see on tour and despite his shortcomings distance wise off the tee, ZJ is probably playing too well to be kept out of the top 20 , therefore it is impossible for me to let the 5.0 + for a top ten finish pass and I have to take a little, he is 5.50 with Pady Power and Bet 365 and over 5 should be available on the exchanges later in the morning.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

WHAT A START !

Here are my notes prepared with love and attention and sent out this morning, all four selections won, all with a degree of comfort.

Brentford 2-0, Southend 1-0, Aldershot 2-1 and the Reading game finished 2-2. All of you who took part in the seven day trial, were well aware of my thoughts about Brentford and Aldershot several weeks ago and I hope that some of you took advantage.

Saturday August 6th .... notes sent at 09.18 this morning ...

We already have the Brentford selection ( reproduced at the foot of the email) and I have three other matches to discuss.

In the Championship, two of the potential big players Reading and Millwall ,meet at the Madejski Stadium , I saw both of these play a couple of times last season, including the reverse fixture which was the most open 0-0 draw I have ever seen. It is no exaggeration to say that 4-4 would have been a truer reflection of the game and the two teams went end to end and toe to toe for 90 minutes, both keepers were in inspired form and I lost count of the number of times they saved "one on one's". We made use of this with an "over" bet in the return game, which ended 2-1 to the Royals, all those goals came well inside the first hour and this was another match which could have produced far more.

Hosts were very unlucky not to have made it to the promised land of the EPL and whilst they may suffer something of a hangover from that, early signs , at least in pre season, is that they have already put that behind them. They managed to make the signing of Mikele Leigertwood permanent, what was absolutely vital, as they are a much better team when he plays, MUCH better, he picked up a knock in the last pre season game, but I saw him at the training ground yesterday and am pretty sure he will play. Shane Long is still at the club, at least for for the time being. Millwall finally sold Steve Morison, but have some promising young strikers and also signed the experienced Darius Henderson to replace him, Henderson is a former Royal and always plays well against them, scoring twice for Sheffield United last season against his first league club.With Reading having lost commanding central defender Matt Mills and experienced replacement Ivar Ingimarsson, they might struggle to contain the big front man and this is a match which looks likely to produce goal scoring chances aplenty once again. "

Over" 2.5 goals 2.04 + asian line.

Other two games are in Division 2. Let's start with Bradford City - Aldershot Town, which will not surprise too many of you. I wrote this about Shots in pre season ....

It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.
This was very clear at the weekend when they travelled to Farnborough Town, one of the better BSS teams last season who narrowly missed out on promotion and could easily have swapped places with Tamworth. Shots got better and better as the game progressed and ran out 4-0 winners, with newcomers Michael Rankine and especially Bradley Bubb who is lightning quick and scored 40 goals in 88 starts in the BSS impressing. The difference between how these two clubs have started their preseason is further highlighted by the fact that one of the Tamworth players missed the first week of training as he was still on holiday ! Holdsworth would never have stood for that. hard to see anything other than another away win, with Shots fitness advantage surely telling after the break if not before.

Holdsworth has got his team primed for the campaign , they completed a very productive pre season and travel north in great heart. He added two players to the squad last week with the addition of Anthony Pulis and George Montgomery, both of whom will help bring along the youngsters/ less experienced players at the club. Montgomery was part of the Dagenham & Redbridge promotion winning side of two seasons ago and his silky left foot will be a welcome addition.

City are a sleeping giant at this level, but are set to slumber a little longer, with Peter Jackson having a very big job to turn them around. He has started the process, by bringing whole host of new players in, but almost none have experience of this division, this is a work in progress and City a team in transition. Aldershot +0.25 1.90 is my pick.

Going to finish with some brief notes about Southend United- Hereford United. Paul Sturrock inherited a shocking position at Roots Hall last season, a financial mess and no players ! He signed 17 players inside 24 hours as the season started and his team progressed and evolved through the year, thumped a few good teams, finished mid table and even looked like they might challenge for the playoffs at one stage. There is a terrific team spirit here and Sturrock has enjoyed a far less frantic build up to this season, he has kept Barry Corr with 18 goals in 32 games and added the prolific Neil Harris from Millwall , Jemal Johnson and also Liam Dickinson who scored plenty at this level for Stockport County, before never quite making it at the higher level, he is very pacey and that can serve you well at this level. They are potentially a team with a lot of goals in them, they have yet to click goals wise in pre season, but did play some quality sides and defensively looked really solid, only conceding one in two games against big Championship player Ipswich Town and EPL side Norwich.

Hereford look set to struggle this year, they are going to have to get involved in the loan market, which is their modus operandi and having ended last season poorly, jwith ust two wins in 13 and lacking quality, I have to look to oppose them. They were very good on the road last season, but lost 4-0 here and 3-1 to United in the reverse fixture and it is hard to argue that Southend are now stronger and the Bulls weaker.

Southend -0.5 1.83 + ... there is a little 1.91 in places.

Good Luck.

Written August 3
Going to start my look at the weekend matches by posting a selection for the Brentford- Yeovil Town game. Obviously I have well and truly shown my hand here and we have already taken the up to 34.0 to win Division 1 about the Bees ( now a top 17.0) and especially the 9.0 for promotion ( now circa 5.0), so you know which way I am going with this, but I don't expect this quote to be available come the weekend and suggest we get on now.

Let's start with the visitors, they have a small squad and I know that boss Terry Skiverton is anxious to add 2-3 more names as soon as possible. Town have had a reasonable pre season, but have been over run a little in midfield at times and have a weakness in central defence. I saw the match at Griffin Park between these two in the second half of last season, Town won 2-1, but the Glovers were fortunate to leave London without being arrested for daylight robbery, somehow contriving a way ( two goals on two breakaways) to win a match the Bees dominated.
You all know how I feel about Brentford this season and there is no point in my repeating everything again, but Uwe Rosler has assembled/inherited a very strong squad and the tactically aware German can ( potentially) change 6-7 players without really weakening the starting eleven.

Off the pitch the club is now run in an ultra professional manner, more along the lines of a top Championship club, with a lot of investment in getting things right both on and off the pitch. A large crowd ( by normal standards) is expected on saturday and is likely to be boosted by a number of Manchester City supporters. Rosler was a hero in his time with City and with them in town for the Charity Shield game with United, he has called for those fans in the capital for the weekend to come along. The Bees have sold their most season tickets in many years and drawn record crowds to G.P for pre season games, something big is happening in TW8 and Rosler, his backroom staff, team and even supporters are all fully focused on getting the juggernaut up and running.

They have a real touch of class in midfield and should again dominate Yeovil in the centre of the park, up front established strikers MacDonald and Alexander have been scoring for fun in pre season, but only one will start with Clayton Donaldson ( 28 goals for Crewe last season) booked for one of the starting places and if that will not keep the front men on their toes, another quality striker is set to join shortly. The defence has looked roack solid and only conceded one goal from open play and kept clean sheets against EPL side Stoke city ( full strength) and Championship playoff hopefuls Watford.

They ended pre season at an inform and fit Alderhot Town last week and dominated early proceedings, they then fell behind for the first time under Rosler and that is what I wanted to see,how they would react after such a magic start to the season where everything has gone perfectly, there was no panic and to be honest the Bees ran out very easy winners, the 2-1 scoreline doesn't tell the full story, it was very impressive. No weaknesses for the hosts and the only negative is that Town have been a bit of a bogey team for the Bees in recent seasons, but hey, this is a very different Brentford team.

1.5 units Brentford -0.5 1.89..... aargh !! This has shortened to 1.83 as I type, so will have to downscale this slightly 1.25 units .... very annoying !.

FINALLY, THE PENNY DROPS !

Into August and long after my readers had taken the cream of the odds, the public gamble starts, with the Racing Post tipping them at 20-1, when only 16-1 was really available on August 3rd.

Win or lose, the early odds for Brentford were plainly wrong and held great value and that, as we all know is the name of the game.

I did write a few further notes about the Bees in August, but I want to keep some of those to readers of my daily notes for the time being. However, as an update, 20 yo attacking midfielder Harry Forrester, who has been on trial at Ajax recently and was offered a contract by the Amsterdam giants, turned them down and signed for the Bees ! I am sure there were many other considerations, but for a player to opt for the Bees over mighty Ajax is a sure sign of how far Brentford have come and are going. If not this season, then in the near future.

I have only put up three outright/long term "official" bets in 2011, Uruguay to win the Copa America @ 9.0 and suggested a top up @ 13.5. Brentford and another, albeit much smaller stakes, at a very nice 40-1 in the Championship yesterday.

July was one of my best ever months and I know that, if there is any justice in this world, this is going to be a record breaking season, as I have worked like a dog over the last two months preparing for today and the coming months !

Good Luck.
Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com