FRIDAY: THE HAVES AND THE HAVE NOTS

FRIDAY OCTOBER 19th

Sport Recife won for us yesterday, that's five in a row and five from six for the current week. Good result in San Francisco overnight, with the 49ers winning a defensive battle with the Seahawks 13-6, that takes them back to the top of the NFC West and the quick turnaround this week means they now have an 11 day break ahead of the key divisional game with the Cardinals, which is a big plus and they then have their bye week, before two home games at Candlestick Park, the schedule has been kind in that aspect, but they need to beat Arizona as that would give them a stranglehold on the division.

Next email will be at 16.00 today with a main focus on tomorrow's J-League notes and I might also include an early preview for one of the Football League matches.

Ligue 2 takes centre stage as usual on a Friday evening and I have previewed three matches, putting up four selections.

ANGERS - MONACO

Top of the table clash in Anjou, all credit to the hosts that they have been able to remain competitive and keep pace with the big spending visitors on a playing budget of around one quarter of that available to Claudio Ranieri, but it is only a matter of time before Monaco start to open up a gap at the top. The problem is that they do not have to play at 100% to get results and motivation has been a problem at times, I do not see that as an issue this evening and after  consecutive home draws against teams who should not be able to live with them on a going day, they should be keen to get back on track and motivated against a promotion "rival". After the last international break, Monaco were a little sluggish, so this time round arranged a friendly, making a trip to Genoa to play Sampdoria on Monday LINK, they lost that 2-0 , but there was quite a bit to take from the performance, as much as you can from a friendly anyway and they will progress from that.

Angers are without suspended defender Matar Fall (10-0-0), they have lost just four of the last 24 matches he has played and the Senegalese right back is pretty much the first name on the team sheet and he has missed just one match since early March, his team lost that and were unbeaten in four before and seven after, so this has to be seen as the biggest possible loss. They have several long term injuries and knocks, so numbers and options are already a little limited at the back. In Claudiu Keseru they have an inform striker, battling with Ibrahima Toure of Monaco for top goalscorer honours, the pair are tied on nine, but long term readers might remember how highly I rate Toure and I have no doubt who will come out on top in that battle this season.

I suspect we might well see the best of the visitors tonight and their best is far too good for Ligue 2, hopefully they got those defensive slips out of their system on Monday and with the draw no bet option, I am very keen on them this evening. 1.5 units Monaco level ball 1.90 + asian line.
Angers : Malicki, Letellier - Manceau, Hénin, Boyer, Diallo, Ravet, Auriac, Frikèche, El-Jadeyaoui, Gomez, Doré, Keserü, Couturier, Diers, N'Same.

Monaco : Subasic, Sourzac, Caillan - Kagelmacher, Adriano, Wolf, Kurzawa, Dirar, Mendy, Ndinga, Ferreira Carrasco, Touré, Germain, Ocampos, Appiah, Poulsen, Barazite, Coulibaly, Raggi, Bajrami.

NIORT- LE HAVRE

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Niort : Roche, Elissalde - Letzelter, Konaté, Bong, Bernard, Ricaud, Gastien, Hébras, Diaw, Glombard, Durak, Gonzalez, Roye, Ouedraogo, Khalis. 

 

Le Havre : Boucher, Placide - Louvion, Genton, Touré, Le Marchand, Nouri, Zola, Mesloub, Bonnet, Riviere, Koïta, Malfleury, Rivierez, François, Fontaine, Mahrez.

NIMES- LE MANS

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Nîmes : Merville, Al-Shaïbani - Parpeix, Poulain, Boche, Sbaï, Haddou, Bouby, Ogounbiyi, Gragnic, Benezet, Koné, Thibault, Ripart, Amewou, Piocelle. 

 

Le Mans : Janot, Beunardeau - Cuffault, Doumbia, Kassai, Buaillon, Kanté, Zito, Thomas, Maurice, Belfort, Baby, Thomert, Ekeng-Ekeng, Derouard, Mendes.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

GOD OF RAIN .....

I am not a big fan of these international matches, I love the major tournaments, the World Cup, Euro's, African Cup of Nations and Copa America, but the qualification matches leave me cold and the break in domestic football that comes along with them is incredibly frustrating. In Europe, the September and October qualification matches come just when the major leagues are getting going and teams starting, or looking to find some consistency and then we break ! Not really sure what the alternative is, but at least we can forget about them now until 2013. We have 14 full rounds of EPL football between now and New Year, when we break for the FA Cup, so hallelujah !

Of course being a Brentford supporter I should be used to frustration by now, one season outside the bottom two divisions in my lifetime ,they should never have been relegated that year btw and it still hurts twenty years later ! Coasting at Christmas, they somehow found a way to get into trouble, then looked like they had got out of the mire before eight minutes of injury time at home to Notts County and again before that most miserable of days at Ashton Gate, on reflection, sorry, I cannot put myself through this again ! So will leave that story there.

I did post a free preview on Facebook yesterday and I hope you all saw it, it wasn't the greatest preview of all time, or all week, but it was a winner inside 51 minutes, which is more use than a stadium roof in Warsaw. At least I felt I really got to know Italian referee Gianluca Rocchi yesterday and how his mind works ( !), I loved the look on Roy Hodgson's face when Rocchi walked straight past him without even a sideways glance following the referee's first televised kick about !

I saw someone had updated his Wikipedia page to read .....

Gianluca Rocchi (born 25 August 1973 in Florence) is an Italian association football referee and God of Rain.

Good Luck. 

TUESDAY : THE PRICE WAS RIGHT .....

Over the last 28 weeks (six months +) I have previewed  over 630 events on the email service and put up 547 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 679.25 units and returns 829.29 units, a ROI of 122.09 % and a profit of 150.04 units.

 

A $100 unit stake would have earned you £15,004 at the rate of just over $535 per week, or $2,322 per month. Nearly all selections were freely available to back on the asian handicap, or for big four figure liquidity on the exchanges and all came with a full preview.

BUT THE SERVICE HAS SO MUCH MORE TO OFFER THAN THAT.  

In addition to the red type selections, I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 12-1 LINK 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.There was another example of these at the weekend, when I gave one of my very rare boxing previews....

BRITISH AND COMMONWEALTH HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

DAVID PRICE - AUDLEY HARRISON

I would say this was one fight too many for Harrison but that was already true several years ago. His last fight of note and there has only been one meaningless bout since then in any case, was against David Haye 23 months ago LINK that was an embarrassment , Harrison landed one punch in three rounds and a large chunk of his purse was withheld for several months whilst the fight was investigated. He is 41 next month and his best and fleeting hey day was a dozen years ago, this is one last pay day for him and I think he will be eager to come out unscathed, against Haye he was much the taller man, but shrunk visible once the fisticuffs started and now he meets a giant of a man in the 2.03m Price, who at age 29, should just be entering his peak years.  Price will also have a madly passionate home crowd cheering him on , he has a 13-0 record ,has won 11 by knockout and his five starts in Liverpool have averaged just 2.2 rounds. He has trained incredibly hard and is taking nothing for granted, speaking of his opponent he said "For him to be under-rated is because he has underachieved and if you watch his fights he has struggled. But he is going to be a big danger to me and I can’t leave anything to chance in the gym. I have been going through the pain barrier everyday but this would be the case no matter who I was fighting. It makes no odds who is in front of me because I have that work ethic.”Price has too much to lose now and simply cannot afford to lose, boxing is all about the money and there is plenty for him to earn in the next couple of years and anything other than a quick win will be seen as a bad result by his team. Harrison has spent more time dancing than fighing in the last couple of years after competing in Strictly Come Dancing in 2011, he lasted six rounds there and I would be amazed if he got as far this evening ! Price can be backed to win inside rounds 1-3 between odds of 3.0 and 3.25 and they look fair quotes and anything over 2.75 offers a little value. One good punch early from Price should end any resistance such as it is likely to be and an early evening for all is on the cards.

I couldn't put it in red type as it was not freely available to all subscribers for high liquidity, but it was possible for anyone who can still bet with european style bookmakers, to get on.  Price won inside 83 seconds of the first round.

Email service details and samples on this LINK

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

Other links....

SIX YEARS BLOG RESULTS 

COUNTRY BY COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

TWITTER 

FACEBOOK 

PRE MATCH NOTES FOR THE "IN RUNNING" GAMES ....

No bets atm, we are looking for a good edge "in play" and information for the future.

SCUNTHORPE UNITED- BRENTFORD 

Morning line : Level ball 2.12- 1.81  2.5 goals 1.99- 1.91........... odds are virtually unchanged through five hours of trading today.

Attempts on goal : 157-134

These two have had the most attempts on goal in League 1 this season, Brentford have been relentless in creating chances since day 1 and have almost 50% more than the division average. United's tally is far less impressive, of course, you knew I was going to say that, but they have a terrible conversion rate of less than one goal for every 19 attempts.

The Bees are good at closing players down and have not conceded a goal from outside the area all season, a lot of their offensive play comes through the centre and this is where United are incredibly vunerable, with 10 of the 11 goals they have conceded from open play,coming down the middle.

I have to give an honourable mention to the hosts for keeping faith with boss Alan Knill, since taking charge in March 2011, United have won just 14 of 65 league starts, a 21.5% strike rate, but he must be living on borrowed time now and the interest rates are getting astronomical !

You all know my thoughts on Brentford and I am not going to go over everything again, but I also like the work ethic at the club, fitness levels are very high and this has paid dividends with 47% of goals (a big number) scored in the final 15 minutes, they are constantly striving to improve and  had a bit of a weakness with regard to how goals were being conceded , the coaching team picked up on this pretty quick and I know they have worked incredibly hard on the training pitch to solve this issue.

Incredibly, United have scored six goals (all competitions) in the opening 15 minutes, almost half of their total, three were scored by Leon Clarke (6-5-0) , four of his goals have earned the hosts all eight points they have "amassed" this season. He is bound to come in for special attention today and boss Uwe Rosler is well aware of how they play to his strengths and commented specifically on that this week. We can expect the Bees to play high possession football and look to nullify this early threat, which is pretty much their normal MO in any case and they have only scored once in the opening 15 minutes.

Hosts would have collected 12 points from their first half performances, just six from their second, the visitors are 14 and 17 respectively. United have dropped ten points from winning positions, Brentford just two and the Bees are very good at holding on to a lead at the break, they are 3-0-0 this season and have failed to hold onto a half time lead just a couple of times over the last three campaigns.

The Bees have lost striker Farid El Alagui to a knee injury for a couple of months at least and will bring in a loan signing in the next week or so, all the rest of the squad are fit and available.

Striker Karl Hawley (6-1-1) remains a doubt after he missed last weekend’s match against Stevenage with a knee injury, he did not train Thursday. United have yet to collect a point without him in the line up.

Referee today is Trevor Kettle, he has a reputation as a bit whistle happy, in the last two seasons he has taken charge of 30 matches, given 121 yellow, 9 red cards and awarded 9 penalties. The Bees have a big edge in discipline ,having received just 10 yellow, 0 reds and conceded one penalty this season, the hosts are 20-2-2 and the numbers were similarly lopsided last season with United receiving nine red cards to the well behaved visitor's sole dismissal.

Half time update emailed at 15.50 UK time.

Full team news to follow.....

Brentford: Moore, Forshaw, Craig, Dean, Douglas, Donaldson, Logan, Forrester, Diagouraga, Hayes, Bidwell.
Bench: Lee, O'Connor, Barron, Saunders, Adeyemi, Dallas, Legge.

Scunthorpe United: Slocombe, Ribeiro, Mirfin, Canavan, Newey, Duffy, Gibbons, Prutton, Ryan, Grella, Clarke.

BARNET - PLYMOUTH ARGYLE

Morning Line : Level ball 1.82 - 2.11  2.5 goals 2.03- 1.87 ....... the "under" has been supported slightly, down to 1.82

Attempts on goal : 68-117

No side in the Football League has had fewer attempts on target than Barnet and with just seven goals in L2 this season ( 24 in 30 starts) that tells you something about where their problems lie and their failure to be able to defend set pieces ( 11 goals conceded in this manner, an average of one per match), tells you a little more.

They have upped their profile this week with the signing of Collins John and Edgar Davids as player/coach, John is still only 26 but after making almost a hundred EPL appearances for Fulham, has gone on a very slippery ride, from the Championship, to Belgium, the MLS, then Azerbaijan and Iran, before joinging the fake Bees, he has been training with them for a couple of weeks, but now his international clearance has finally come through. Davids is almost 40, but spent two decades playing for the best in Europe and is a class act, but he has not played in two years and has kept himself fit by playing street soccer ( !) and managing a sunday league team. He lives in North London, so I am sure that for him it is more than a gimmick, but only time will tell what kind of influence he can have on or off the field. It will be a week or two before he is available for selection. If nothing else, it will put a good few hundred on the attendance home and away, if he plays.

Argyle seem to have a little more battle in them, they have collected an average of 1.45 pts after the break and seven points from losing positions, all of which came when they were trailing at the half. Barnet have an average of 0.54 pts per game from the second half and have lost every match in which they have trailed.

Barnet are especially vunerable either side of the break, with 41% of all goals conceded coming in the middle 30 minutes, Argyle have scored 81% in the second half, with four coming directly after the break, which is interesting.

The visitors made their own signing this week with Scott Griffiths joining on loan from Peterborough United, the left back played at Crawley last season and they conceded just six goals, with six cleansheets in his last ten starts, almost all the goals the Pilgrims have conceded this season have come play down the flanks, so this could be a useful addition.

Kindly old Fred Graham is in charge of the whistle, he is far more forgiving than Mr Kettle and has only shown 26 yellow and no red cards in ten matches this season. I am not sure how pleased the hosts will be to see him, he has refereed six of their matches previously and they are yet to win, last season they lost all three ( two here at Underhill) with a 2-8 goal difference and an average of exactly two cards per game.

Half time update emailed at 15.50 UK time.

Barnet (4-4-2): 29 Graham Stack; 2 Barry Fuller, 32 Krystian Pearce, 30 David Stephens, 4 Clovis Kamdjo; 3 Jordan Brown, 19 Jake Hyde, 8 Mark Byrne, 15 Andy Yiadom; 11 Ricky Holmes, 36 Collins John.

Substitutes: 1 Liam O'Brien (gk), 7 Oliver Lee, 10 Jon Nurse, 17 Anthony Edgar, 25 Jamal Lowe, 26 Elliott Johnson, 31 John Oster.

Argyle (4-4-2): 1 Jake Cole; 2 Durrell Berry, 5 Darren Purse (capt), 4 Maxime Blanchard, 33 Scott Griffiths; 32 Alex MacDonald, 6 Conor Hourihane, 8 Luke Young, 7 Paris Cowan-Hall; 10 Rhys Griffiths, 18 Guy Madjo.

Substitutes: 9 Nick Chadwick, 16 Jamie Lowry, 17 Curtis Nelson, 19 Joe Lennox, 20 Rene Gilmartin, 21 Matt Lecointe, 23 Jamie Richards, 27 Andres Gurrieri.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ..... GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS !

THURSDAY OCTOBER 11th

The good news is that all three bets won yesterday , we have had five winners and one half stake loser from six selections this week and it is only Thursday morning for those of us based in Europe. The bad news is that those stats are going to be unchanged tomorrow morning, as I have nothing to pass on today, but never fear, as I have plenty planned for tomorrow and the rest of the weekend.

 

There are two Brazilian and one NFL match today and I was "interested", but the oddsmakers priced all three games very similarly to me and it is better to wait for other opportunities. For example, in the NFL game, I saw the Steelers as a five point favourite and the o/u as 44 and Pinnacle are -6 and 43.5, I do feel this one could bust open and having allowed the Broncos and Raiders to score 65 points in two previous road games, the Titans could put some points on the board against a Steel Curtain which is not shutting away from Heinz Field and if you really, really twisted my arm for a bet, Tennesse to score over 17.5 points with Pinnacle ( Team Totals) would have to be my pick, but that is after a lot of twisting !

 

One of these Wednesday selections (see below) was advertised on Twitter and posted in full on Facebook yesterday afternoon.

 

BRAZIL: SERIE A

FIGUEIRENSE- ATLETICO GOIANIENSE

These two are deep in trouble, 10 and 12 points respectively from safety and as you might expect from the teams currently holding up the rest of Serie A, they have the worst defensive records, having conceded 103 goals between them. Regular readers might well guess where I am going with this one and you would be right, two struggling teams usually means goals and that is what I expect to see tonight. Neither team can settle for a point and the first goal should blow this match wide open and given that, their dire defensive records and extensive injury and suspension problems in key areas at the back, I would be amazed if we did not collect on our "over" bet, but gambling never ceases to amaze and astound me, so don't read too much into that !

Figueirense conceded six at the weekend, twelve in their last three and at least two in seven of their last nine starts. They will be without suspended central defender Sandro (6-0-0), holding midfielders Tulio (23-0-2) and Jackson (18-0-0), "sicknote" otherwise known as striker Sebastian Abreu (6-0-1) is away on international duty, but has featured very rarely in any case and only plays when he feels like it, as far as I can tell. They have a couple of long term injuries too, but a much bigger offensive loss is Caio (26-9-5) altough five of his goals came very early season and he has only scored once in the last month, they do have other forward players who previously knew where the goal was and it is time for one of them to step up and help Aloisio ( 22-9-2).

Atletico have conceded two or more in four of their last five road games, the exception was a 2-1 win at six point league leading Fluminense, their only away win of the year, work that one out ! They are also missing a trio of suspended players in,  striker Ricardo Bueno (11-1-0), center back Gustavo (16-0-0)... they have lost 7 from 16 when he plays, 9 from 12 without him, and left back Eron ( 20-1-3). They are already without a handful on injured players
including midfielder Joilson (19-2-2), but almost all the others are very long term and can no longer be considered important. They played top five team Vasco for well over an hour with ten men at the weekend and even ended with nine on the pitch, so could be a little short energy wise.

The reverse fixture ended in a 3-2 home win, a nervy affair with poor defending and three penalties conceded, something similar on the cards tonight. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 1.94 asian line.

Figueirense: Neto, Wilson, Guti, Edson , João Paulo; Elsinho, Helder, Claudinei, Guilherme Lazaroni, Almir, Coutinho, Diogo,Doriva, Botti, Ronny, Julio Cesar, Willian Pottker , Aloisio.

Good Luck.

 

TUESDAY UPDATE ....OUR BETTING WEEK STARTED IN THE BIG APPLE .....

We started off the new week well with the Jets "only" losing to the Texans by six points, I have not watched the game myself yet (even I have to sleep sometimes !), but it sounded incident packed ( they always are!) and I will enjoy it after typing this post. We are 8 from 10 with our NFL bets and whilst that strike rate is almost certainly unsustainable over the whole season, I have hit similar levels in previous campaigns and there is nothing wrong with at least aiming high .

I have previewed a couple of JPT matches today, I will not be posting either or them on here, but social media guru John, might put up one of them on Facebook, or some snippets from one or both on Twitter, he is much kinder than me ! 

Last week saw the email service again produce very good returns and whilst personally, I think these results are kind of pointless given the nature of the service, many of you seem to feel they are all that matter and so........ 

Over the last 27 weeks (six months +) I have previewed  over 610 events on the email service and put up 529 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 657.25 units and returns 801.29 units, a ROI of 121.92 % and a profit of 144.04 units.

 

A £75 unit stake would have earned you £10,803 at the rate of just over £400 per week, or £1,733 per month. Nearly all selections were freely available to back on the asian handicap, or for big four figure liquidity on the exchanges and all came with a full preview.

BUT THE SERVICE HAS SO MUCH MORE TO OFFER THAN THAT.  

In addition to the red type selections, I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 12-1 LINK 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above. 
 

Email service details and samples on this LINK

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

Other links....

SIX YEARS BLOG RESULTS 

COUNTRY BY COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

TWITTER

FACEBOOK 

MONDAY NOTES........

MONDAY OCTOBER 8th

FC Dallas led for an hour, but were unable to hold on to their lead, to be honest, a point was the least Chivas deserved from the match , so no complaints at this end. The NFL went well, the New York Giants covered the spread and the San Franisco 49ers again posted some very big numbers, they totalled a franchise high 621 yards of offense and the split of over 300 yards each through the air and on the ground is a thing of beauty and an offensive coordinator's dream. The defense has allowed just three points in eight quarters of football and the loss to the Vikings has clearly worked as a wake up call and got them refocused. Next three games are tougher, before a bye in Week 9, but I am confident they are playoff bound and wildly pleased with our outright bet ( see below). We are 7 from 9 ( 77.78% ) in the NFL this year and can hopefully inprove upon that tonight.

NFL: NEW YORK JETS - HOUSTON TEXANS

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

 

Good Luck.

 written September 9th.....

I am going to ease into the new season and keep a fairly low profile for the first two weeks, especially with regard to comments, as I want to keep as much information to myself until it is needed.

However, I have to put up my outright bet from the get go and that is the San Francisco 49ers. It is simply impossible to overstate the impact coach Jim Harbaugh has had at the club in just 20 months. Last year was meant to be one of rebuilding, he entered the new season, with a lot of new players , shortened summer practice due to the "lockout"  and taking over a team which had not posted a winning season in nine years. They not not only won, but did so 13 times in the regular season and went to the NFC Championship game losing in overtime (and they should have won), to the New York Giants who went on to win the Super Bowl. That was an incredible achievement.

Harbaugh and the coaching team he brought with him from Stanford believe in teaching, not just telling players to do something, but explaining why, it is all about improvement and attention to details, he is a coach from top to toe, a man born to lead, from a family of leaders. His father and brother are football coaches, another sibling is a Basketball coach. I love these quotes from Trent Dilfer who said "he has done exactly what he did at Stanford, he’s taken guys who thought they were tough and taught them how to be tough. " His offensive genius isn’t necessarily in the modern-day passing game,he and his staff are very good at scheming the running game, Harbaugh is a master of creating matchups in the running game and capitalizing on the play-action" .

The loss to the Giants still hurts quarterback Alex Smith, who said "As much as we all talk about pressing delete on last year ... I don't think that anyone is pressing delete on the taste in our mouth." Smith threw for a career-high 3,150 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, and his five interceptions were tied for the third-fewest in NFL history with a minimum of 400 attempts. He was playing with a wide receiving corps that was considered one of the league's worst, and that unit managed just one reception in the NFC title game loss. That was what ultimately let them down, the existing group will improve quite a bit IMO, but they have added Giants wide receiver Mario Mannigham and running back Brandon Jacobs to the squad and the offense will be far more potent this season. Also 35 yo Randy Moss came out of retirement to sign a one year contract, hard to know what to make of this, but Moss is an all time great receiver and if anyone can get another golden year out of him, then it is Harbaugh and his team. I heard that he has been quick and impressive in training camp and this really could be incredible business, anyway, anything he brings to the Niners is a bonus. As a fomer QB himself knows a good wide receiver when he sees one. The 49 er defense is awesome, it was the best in the NFL last season, giving up just 227 points and not allowing a rushing touchdown through the first 14 games, posting 42 sacks, 23 interceptions, 15 fumble recoveries, a safety, a defensive touchdown and 2 return touchdowns, through the regular season, it was ranked #4 but was clearly #1 for my money.

They come into the season oozing quiet confidence, left tackle Joe Staley said they feel "much further along than we were last year."

Green Bay are all about the offense, they were big Super Bowl favourites last season after going 15-1 through regular season and QB Aaron Rodgers set the NFL single-season record with a 122.5 passer rating and franchise records with 4,643 yards and 45 touchdown passes, his team scoring an average of 35 points per game, the 5th highest in history. However, their defense gave up 4,924 passing yards, the most in NFL history and their pass rush was almost non existent. They have looked out of synch in pre season and the 49ers can put more pressure on Rodgers than he normally sees. If they can stop the run as effectively as last season, it will be easier to deal with even the amazing Packers receivers, it is always easier to defend, when you "know" what a team is going to do.

Packers have/ had the NFL's worst defense and go into the start of this season with several young players set to play in key roles.Outside linebacker Nick Perry, the team's first-round draft pick this year, will be a starter, they will also have to go with youth in the secondary to cover for the offseason move of 35-year-old cornerback Charles Woodson to safety. Linebacker Desmond Bishop is out for the season and second-year player Davon House, who made an early bid in training camp to win a starting job at cornerback is injured. Anyway, today is more about the 49ers for me, they do not have to win today, but if they do, the 14-1 will disappear, if they lose narrowly I doubt it will change at all.
So 1.75 units San Francisco to win the Super Bowl 15.0.... 14.0 + is ok.

Edit: 49ers are now down to 6.0

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY, SUNDAY ....

Over the last 12 days, there have been 11 ( just 11) free to view previews, posted either here on the blog, or on the Facebook page, all are listed below. 

Can you spot what they all have in common ?

There is not a prize for the first correct answer !

25/09 1.25 units Middlesbrough level ball 1.88 asian line FACEBOOK WON !

28/09 Angers-Le Mans  1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.00 asian line GOWI WON !

29/09 1.5 units Omiya Ardiya +0.25 ball 1.98 asian line FACEBOOK WON !

29/09 1.25 units Vancouver-Seattle draw 3.30 +... there is some 3.40 around , 3.44 with Pinnacle GOWI WON !

29/09 Reading- Newcastle United1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line FACEBOOK WON !

02/10 1.5 units Dagenham & Redbridge +0.75 ball 1.88 asian line. GOWI WON !

02/10 1.25 units Guangzhou Evergrande -0.75 ball 1.92 asian line FACEBOOK WON !

03/10  1.25 units Vancouver Whitecaps -0.75 asian line 1.91 line FACEBOOK WON !

04/10 One unit PSV -0.5 ball 2.0 + there is plenty of 2.05 even 2.10 in places if you shop around... 2.06/08 on the exchanges GOWI WON !

05/10 1.25 units Le Havre -0.5 ball 2.28 asian line FACEBOOK WON !

06/10 1.5 units Nottingham Forest -0.25 ball 2.06 asian line FACEBOOK WON !

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

TGIF .....

Hugely busy weekend ahead and I have already previewed six matches for subscribers to the email service, three tonight for Ligue 2 and another trio of games from the Saturday morning J-League action.

John, the GOWI social media guru said on Twitter that there have been eight full free to view previews on here and Facebook in the last seven days and all have won ! That sounds like he/we are spoling you , but he has already posted another for tonight's action, so check it out.

Good Luck.

Contact:gowi8@btinternet.com

THURSDAY ....BURNLEY, BURNLEY, IT'S A HELL OF A TOWN !

Dane Richards, New York to Vancouver to Burnley !! Hope he enjoys the nightlife !

Taken from this morning's email service notes.....

.....I did see the City- Dortmund match, it could easily have been 2-2 at the break and only Joe Hart saved his team from a frightful hammering, we will definitely be returning to their matches in the coming weeks.

Vancouver Whitecaps ran out very comfortable winners, there is a link here of seven minutes of highlights, you can get an idea of how quick Dane Richards is for the second goal, he is joining Burnley on January 1st BTW, so look out for him in the Championship in 2013. For Chivas, the coach has well and truly lost the plot, Shalrie Joseph at centreback..... omg !

Two emails tomorrow, the first at 10.00 UK time will cover all the Friday football, centred as always around the Ligue 2 matches and the follow up at 16.00 will preview the Saturday morning J-League action.

I am not getting overly involved in the Europa League matches today, you already know that I am not the greatest fan of the competition, at least until the knockout stages. I do have one bet for the competition and two for the Brazilian matches ( one given yesterday) , but tomorrow and the rest of the weekend is far more interesting.

EUROPA LEAGUE:

PSV EINDHOVEN- NAPOLI

I think that anything over even money offers a little value for the hosts, they will be without Jetro Willems, Mathias Zanka Jørgensen, Orlando Engelaar and Tim Matavz , who were not called up to the squad by PSV head coach Dick Advocaat, but they have a strong group and are treating the match seriously. I always have my doubts about Italian teams in this competition, I know that Napoli beat AIK 4-0 on Matchday 1, but it was with a "B" team and that is how they are going to approach all the cup competitions this season, put out the fringe players and show more motivation in front of their own fans, at least through the early stages and see how things pan out. They are level at the top of Serie A with Juve and four points clear of the pack, this is a tremendous chance to not only qualify for the Champions League, but to really challenge for the Scudetto, which they have not won since 1990. They have a vital match with Udinese on sunday, where they are desperate for three points to take into the international break, as first match after that, is a trip to Turin to meet the Old Lady. They are going to rotate heavily again tonight, PSV are in good form, with 12 goals in their last three and are used to meeting teams most weeks who will sit back and play them on the counter, which is very much the Napoli system, whomever Walter Mazzarri selects. One unit PSV -0.5 ball 2.0 + there is plenty of 2.05 even 2.10 in places if you shop around... 2.06/08 on the exchanges.

BRAZIL SERIE A:

PORTUGUESA - SPORT RECIFE

Portuguesa are coming off a 1-1 home draw with Atletico MG , they were very fortunate there and their keeper really kept them in the match, he will have a little better protection tonight with the return from suspension of central defender Gustavo (23-0-0) , but his place in the "sin bin" has been taken by holding midfielder Ferdinando ( 18-0-1) and injured midfielder Heverton ( 9-1-0 ...but only joined in July) remains sidelined. Ferdinando falls into my category of  ..... REST OF THE EMAIL IS RESTRICTED 

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

STILL IN CHARGE AT DAGGERS .....

 Four match previews in the daily email today .....

 

TUESDAY OCTOBER 2ND

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE:

MATCH PREVIEW RESTRICTED

LEAGUE 2: PORT VALE- DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE
I have been waiting for Daggers to win a game and they got that breakthrough win at home to Wycombe Wanderers on saturday, they had been buoyed by a 2-2 draw at highflying Rochdale before that , albeit the match turning on a dismissal to a Dale defender and impressed at the weekend cruising home 3-0. The result was worthy of extra note as the visitors were said to be pumped up playing for interim boss Gareth Ainsworth and the mood in the visiting camp was very good, less so at around 17.00 . Dagenham have been creating a lot of chances before their maiden win and 108 attempts sees them top six in League 2 and averaging four per game more than Vale, who are 18 places and 12 points higher in the "real" league table.  It is possible to read too much into these "attempts"stats, but they are a decent starting point if you feel a team has been playing better than bare results might suggest. Vale are a biggish club with potential at this level, but have had some horrendous off the pitch problems in recent seasons and they currently remain in administration, they have done really well so far and recorded an eyecatching 1-0 win at Bradford City over the weekend, who were previously 100% ( 4 from 4 ) on home soil, but that was very much a rearguard action and on another day City could have scored 3-4 goals. Visting boss John Still has been in charge at Victoria Road for eight years and is very well respected with a LOT of contacts in the game, funds are always tight at the club and he uses the loan market to fantastic effect and regularly unearths a few gems from non league football, where has spent almost all his career. Still was finally able to name a full strength team on Saturday ,Billy Bingham was brought back into central midfield which allowed Abu Ogogo to return to his usual right back position and Dwight Gayle was also restored up front and opened the scoring. This was the first time they have not had to play someone out of position and they looked a top ten, as opposed to bottom six team and we should keep them on our side for the time being. 1.5 units Dagenham & Redbridge +0.75 ball 1.88 asian line..... odds just down from 1.94 but I still like this bet, 3.25-3.40 for the draw no bet option is also attractive.

LEAGUE 2 : ROCHDALE- BRADFORD CITY

 

MATCH PREVIEW RESTRICTED

AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: GUANGZHOU EVERGRANDE- AL ITTIHAD

THIS MATCH IS ALREADY OVER ..... GUANGZHOU WON 2-1 , PREVIEW WAS POSTED ON THE GOWI FACEBOOK PAGE A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE KICK OFF. 

This is a very interesting match up between two time winner and vastly experienced Al Ittihad who are looking to secure a fifth AFC Champions League semi-final appearance in eight years and potential big player, but new kid on the block in international terms, Guangzhou Evergrande. The hosts trail 4-2 from the first leg where they led twice and showed plenty, but simply ran out of steam . They were short of some key players for that match and will be boosted today by the return from suspension of key defensive players in centreback Zhang Linpeng and holding midfielder Zhao Xuri, the young duo have 76 starts for the national team between them and are amongst the first names on the team sheet. Also, for the first leg, coach Marcello Lippi ( yes, that one !) felt many of his squad were left jaded after playing for their national team in matches in Sweden and Brazil immediately before the match in Jeddah, flying home to China and then on to Saudi, which is a brutal schedule.He also lost Brazilian striker Muriqui to injury during the game and not a lot went their way that day. Lippi was concerned about the lack of protection his players got in Saudi, something I have seen previously and he said " I think Ittihad had an aggressive attitude and the referee let a lot of plays go, but hopefully at home this won’t happen so much.” The big crowd will put a lot of pressure on the match officials and we might see more decisions go the way of the Chinese side today.We spoke of Guangzhou ahead of their match with FC Tokyo some months back ....

AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE : GUANGZHOU EVERGRANDE - FC TOKYO  ( written 30/05)

We have discussed FC Tokyo twice recently, ahead of their final group game against Ulsan two weeks ago and again on Saturday when they hosted Urawa Reds, they played quite well in Korea, but were fortunate to get a share of the spoils in the second and looked a little weary. They are newly promoted back to the J-League 1 and also competing in the Champions League for the first time, the much higher level of competition and huge distances travelled (they will already have clocked up 27,000 km in the CL alone by tomorrow night) , is going to take it's toll at some stage and I believe we are now seeing the early stages of that. Japanese clubs have done increasingly poorly in this competition in recent years, usually coming up short once we reach the knockout stage, only one has made the last eight in the last two campaigns and they came through an all Japanese last 16 round game and then conceded nine goals in the quarter final, the other four clubs that made the last 16, all lost without scoring a goal. I think we will see Tokyo eliminated today if the hosts put their best foot forward, we talked yesterday about how big home advantage is at this stage and FGT meet a very motivated and ambitious opponent today.

Chinese companies have started to "throw" money at the sport and Guangzhou have received massive investment from the Evergrande Real Estate. They have spent money like water, signing arguably three of the very top domestic players in Gao Lin, Sun Xiang and Zheng Zhi, two of whom have played for big european clubs and with some 200 international appearrances between the trio. They then spent big on the Brazilian trio, Paulao, Muriqui and Cleo, another $10m on Dario Conca the Argentine playmaker from Fluminense , where he was voted Brazilian footballer of the year. They have recently completed the paperwork to sign Lucas Barrios next month, which takes the spending on that international quintet to circa $35m and a similar amount on yearly salaries, Conca is said to be on $200k per week !

The club had fallen on hard times and down to League 1, before the new owners stepped in ,but the first wave of new signings helped them win that easily and last year, their first back in the top flight, they won  Super league by a massive 15 points, they are already top once again after just 12 games, but now desire an international title. To that end, Marcello Lippi has been brought in as coach on a contract worth over 10m euros per year , nice work if you can get it at pensionable age ! The four South American players are waaaay too good to be playing at this level and whilst Conca has been a little too outspoken at times (which got him in trouble with the previous boss, although Lippi wiped that slate and suspension clean) , they have all looked pretty committed to the cause, not just here for a paycheque and unplayable at times, like in the incredible impressive 5-1 win at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors ( they would have comfortably beaten any team in Asia that day). Inconsistency has been a problem at times, especially when they have expected to win against lesser opponents, but Lippi has been brought in to sort that out and they should have enough to see FCT off today, easily if things go well. Original line was higher, but I couldn't put this up on Sunday night for a variety of reasons, so not a max bet, but I really like this, so .

They will be without Muriqui upfront , but Lucas Barrios, Cleo and Dario Conca are all prolific goalscorers and more than capable of taking the chances that will surely come their way. The visitors might be tempted to try and sit on their two goal advantage, to be honest, that would be perfect as they are offensively minded usually and not really set up to play on the back foot. Al Ittihad coach Raul Caneda seems well aware of the huge potential the hosts have and said “We will play against a new giant in football,China is a new giant that is starting to appear and Guangzhou has been the leader of football in China in the last two years, I think the Chinese league in the next year will be the best league in Asia and in four or five years it will be one of the important leagues in the world, so they have a lot of possibilities." Guangzhou captain Zheng Zhi,seemed in confident mood on Sunday saying “We have every chance of going through and reversing the result of the first leg, so I and all the players are confident we will win this match.” I definitely feel they can edge this match and if they show half the slick passing and shoot on sight policy we saw in the 5-1 win in South Korea against Jeonbuk LINK they might still turn this tie around, bonus is that the visitors will be happy to lose by a single goal.1.25 units Guangzhou Evergrande -0.75 ball 1.92 asian line.

Good Luck.

 

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

MONDAY.... THE MORNING AFTER THE NIGHT BEFORE

What an incredible weekend and year of sport, the Ryder Cup was amazing and only second in excitement to Brentford's 96th minute equaliser at Tranmere Rovers !

 

 Last week was hard work, we were behind early but finished really strongly over the weekend and made almost nine points profit over the seven days and that is just from the red type selections. I sent subscribers 12 emails over the seven days , previewing 30 events in detail. Most emails averaged 1600-2000 words and cost a long term subscriber, just over one euro each.

 

Those of you who are only interested in the free to view content did well, with all four available previews winning over the weekend ( see post below).  I doubt that there will be quite so much in terms of free content this week, but please check out the blog and social media sites occasionally, as this might change. 

Over the last 26 weeks (six months) I have previewed  over 585 events on the email service and put up 503 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 625.5 units and returns 762.15 units, a ROI of 121.85 % and a profit of 136.65 units.

 

A $80 unit stake would have earned you almost $ 11,000 at the rate of just over $420 per week, or $1,822 per month. Nearly all selections were freely available to back on the asian handicap, or for big four figure liquidity on the exchanges and come with a full preview.

BUT THE SERVICE HAS SO MUCH MORE TO OFFER THAN THAT.  

In addition to the red type selections, I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 12-1 LINK 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above. 

Email service details and samples on this LINK
 
Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com