THE SECOND MOST FAMOUS CJ TO HAVE A BIG AFTERNOON IN DETROIT ....

NFL :

The traditional Thanksgiving Day games, with the Lions and Cowboys always hosting on the big day. Three selections for us at odds of 2.08, 4.50 and 7.50, starting in Detroit .

HOUSTON TEXANS@ DETROIT LIONS

Detroit are 1-7 on Thanksgiving since moving to Ford Field.

Houston are the number one ranked team currently in the AFC with a 9-1 record, but are 1-1 in non conference games, having lost 42-24 to Green Bay of the NFC North, the same division as the Lions. They edged past another in the Chicago Bears just two weeks ago in the match where Jay Cutler got injured and left the field at the half , we saw how poor the Bears were without him on Monday. On Sunday, the Texans had a massive shootout with Jacksonville, allowing the Jaguars backup quarterback Chad Henne to pick apart the Texans’ highly regarded (by some) defense, with 458 yards and four touchdown passes, posting 37 points. Houston found a way to finally stop Henne late in the game and won by six points, but the quick turnaround in games, means very little time to work on those defensive shortcomings and now they face the Lions, who have the #2 ranked offense in the NFL.

Lions quarter back Matthew Stafford is a much better passer than Henne and is looking to bounce back after a bad day against Green Bay, where he had a low completion rate, but his team pushed the Pack all the way, not all the misplaced pases were his fault and on another day, they could/should have won that game. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson leads the league in yards receiving and in receptions of at least 20 yards , with the Lions having given up completed passes of 39, 63,67 and 81 yards against the Jags and with top cornerback Johnathan Joseph nursing a sore hamstring and having sat out practice on Monday and Tuesday, he will be salivating at the thought of this game, infront of a massive television audience. Fellow wide receiver Titus Young was benched for this game by coach Jim Schwartz for "unacceptable behavior", I do not see this as a negative, it sends a message to the rest of the team and Young has not played well enough to get away with those kind of antics. Texans also have other issues, mainly with their defensive line and I fancy a bit of an upset here and Detroit to break that Thanksgiving hoodoo.I favour the Lions +3 points 2.08 Pinnacle Sports for 1.25 units

WASHINGTON REDSKINS@DALLAS COWBOYS

 

Redskins are 1-6 on Thanksgiving, losing all six in Dallas and .....

 

Good Luck.

 

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

EUROPA LEAGUE .........

FC BASEL- SPORTING LISBON

I like the odds about the home win here. Portugese teams always give the competition huge respect, but Sporting have only a small chance to progress and are going to have to depart from their normal game plan and open up here , looking for the win and Basel are far better suited to an open game IMO. I suspect that Sporting having beaten Braga las week, will be giving their trip to Moreiense on Monday greater importance, as they have to get in touch with the top three at the very least, a midtable campaign is just not acceptable and they currently trail Braga by seven points, the top two by 13 ! That victory last week would have been welcome relief for coach Franky Vercauteren, the "Little Prince" took charge at the end of last month and that was his first win, I can see that he would like to keep the momentum up, but his priority has to surely be the league. Hosts have finally kick started their season and have won their last five starts, getting themselves to within touching distance of the top in the Super League and with a chance of progression in Europe, three points tonight would leave matters firmly in their own hand. They have to play Thun away on Sunday, but the hosts have collected just one point from six starts and Basel have not lost there in nine visits, so I think they can focus on Sporting just for now. Their new coach Murat Yakin had a far more immediate impact at the helm than Vercauteren, he made his name as a player on some famous european nights here at St.Jakob-Park and would love to bring a big name here in the later stages of the competition. Visitors arrive without suspended midfielder Stijn Schaars.1.25 units FC Basel -0.5 ball 2.11 asian line.

Sporting: Rui Patrício, Marcelo Boeck, Victor Golas, Xandão, Marcos Rojo, Tiago Ilori, Cédric Soares, Emiliano Insúa, Daniel Pranjic, Médios: Elias, André Martins, Adrien Silva, Gelson Fernandes, Rinaudo, André Carrillo, Diego Capel, Ricky van Wolfswinkel, Valentín Viola, Zakaria Labyad and Betinho

 

Good Luck.

TACHE TASTIC !

I am not sure what cheered me up most this midweek, the mighty Bees winning 1-0 at Swindon or Michael Owen on Sky Sports !

I know that this is in aid of a good cause, but there should be a camapign to get Owen to keep the facial hair beyond Movember, he looks like a 12 yo trying to buy alcohol or cigarettes !

Absolutely fantastic, but I do not know how he can keep a straight face !

Good Luck.

PLAY UP POMPEY ....

LEAGUE 1

PORTSMOUTH-LEYTON ORIENT

I am not a big fan of Orient, they lose a lot of games, 23 already in 2012 and that will get you relegated in almost every season and we are talking about their results over 41 matches, not 46.

The O's are coming off a 4-1 win at Carlisle United on Saturday and they had a midweek cup game at Gloucester before that, despite the confidence gained from that big win, that is about 20 hours spent on a bus in the last six days and that will take a toll, either tonight, or at home to Preston on Saturday.

Pompey have not scored in six and have a lot of well documented problems, but there is a little light at the end of the tunnel. The takeover deal with the Supporter's Trust looks set to go through before Christmas and would take the club out of administration. On the pitch, they have been creating chances, but the ball has not fallen for them in front of goal and they have hit the woodwork a division high 11 times this season. They signed signed Peterborough winger Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Swindon striker Paul Benson on loans last week, both played in the 1-0 home defeat to Doncaster Rovers and will be more in sync with their team mates tonight.Yesterday they re-signed central defender Ricardo Rocha, the former Portugese international made 76 appearances for Portsmouth, before his contract was terminated because of the financial problems and he will fit seemlessly back into the line up. This is going to give caretaker boss Guy Whittingham, who also has Scott Allan back from a three match suspension,  more options, his team have been on the South Coast for the last ten days, with no travel, just the one match and should strip much the fresher of the two teams. 1.25 units Portsmouth -0.25 ball 2.00.

 

Good Luck.

 

Four matches discussed in today's email, for details on how to read the other three email me at ............ gowi8@btinternet.com

 

 

SUNDAY MORNING .........

SPAIN: LA LIGA

SEVILLA - BETIS

Sevilla have named every available player in the squad, not wishing to give any information away to their neighbour and bitter rival, so only midfielder Piotr Trochowski (6-2-1) is out for sure. Betis were being similarly coy earlier in the week and both coaches are looking to gain every possible advantage. These are very keenly fought derby games with no quarter given and there have been only two wins by more than a single goal in the last decade( 20 meetings), nine of those have ended all square and both teams tend to set out with avoiding defeat as a priority, both teams are coming off losses last time out and I am sure that was down to the derby factor, with so much local attention on the big game. REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

FRANCE: LIGUE 1

BORDEAUX- OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE

Following PSG's failure to beat nine man Rennes last night, the winner of this could go top today, the visitors could do so with a point and I think they would be happy with that, having a dire record in this fixture and being very hard hit with injuries . Hosts are unbeaten at the Chaban-Delmas stadium (2-3-0), but need to start turning some of those draws into wins if they are to mount a serious title challenge, they are 8-5-1 at home and 16-11-4 overall in 2012 where they have been as strong as anyone in the last twelve months, including PSG, infact, the pair will have an identical 17-11-4 record if Bordeaux take maximum points today and I am taking them to do so.

OM started the season on fire, winning their first six starts, just one in five since then, it is the goals against column which is suddenly giving huge cause for concern, they have kept just one cleansheet in nine, conceding two or more in six over that sequence and have developed a nasty habit of conceding late equalisers recently. Today, they will be without their three main strikers in Andre-Pierre Gignac (9-5-0), Loic Remy (8-0-00 and  Jordan Ayew (11-3-1). They have named Florian Raspentino ( 23 yo just 27 minutes of L1 action this season), Billel Omrani( 19 yo, with 3 minutes of one Europa League game to his name) and Fabrice Apruzesse ( 27yo but only played for the B team) as their three attackers, they do have the option to push Andre Ayew up front, but this is far from ideal, with Joey Barton still out.

Hosts have no real problems and boast a tremendous record in this fixture, having not lost at home to OM for over three decades, that run should continue and if Lyon do not win the early game, three points should see Bordeaux top of the pile, which will get the locals very excited.  Bordeaux -0.5 ball.

Bordeaux:  Carrasso, Keita, Chalmé, Henrique, Mariano, Planus, Sané, Trémoulinas, Ben Khalfallah, Jussiê, Nguemo, Obraniak, Plasil, Saivet, Bellion, Diabaté, Gouffran, Maurice-Belay.

Marseille :Mandanda, Sy, Fanni, Abdallah, Nkoulou, Diawara, Mendes, Morel, Mbow,  Kaboré, Cheyrou, Abdullah, Valbuena, Amalfitano, A.Ayew, Raspentino, Omrani, Apruzesse

 

MLS CUP PLAYOFFS:

We look set for an exact repeat of last year's final, with Galaxy hosting Dynamo at the Home Depot Center, as DC United and the Sounders face a very tough task to turn these second legs around.

DC UNITED - HOUSTON DYNAMO (1-3) written Friday 16/11

United look to have more of a chance, as they "only" trail by two goals ( remember, no away goal rule in this competition), but as we discussed previously, Houston are the archetypal playoff team, have a tactically astute coach who thrives in the post season and appear to have United's "number" having dominated the series in Texas and scoring freely here in the capital, with two or more goals in four of their last five visits. Much of this was covered ahead of the first leg, when we were firmly in the Houston camp and my notes for that game are reproduced at the foot of this email. Highlights of the first match can be viewed here LINK, United were unlucky and the hosts should have been a man down just before the break, but the referee did not see, what every other person in the stadium saw and Houston dodged a bullet.

Dynamo went to Sporting Kansas City in the last round holding a two goal lead and looked to sit on that lead, they lost that 1-0 and whilst it was job done, they have done a lot of soul searching about how they approached the return leg and midfielder Brad Davis said “hopefully, we learned a little bit of a lesson to try and we will not sit back so much." United are strong at home (12-4-1), where they have scored 37 goals during the regular season, second only to the San Jose Earthquakes, they also had a +20 goal difference at RFK Stadium. They will have no choice but to throw everything at Dynamo and that is going to create space for Houston to exploit on the break.

Hosts have doubts about striker Chris Pontius (31-12-4), Brandon McDonald centreback (33-2-3) and midfielder Marcelo Saragosa (16-1-1), who played 12, 56 and 40 minutes respectively in the first leg, after all left the field injured, also throw star player Dwayne De Rosario (26-7-9 see first leg preview below) into the mix, he did not feature even on the bench, but will surely play some part in the return and you will see that coach Ben Olsen has some huge decisions to make. Keeper Bill Hamid (24-0-0) returns, right winger Andy Najar ( 25-0-4) remains out with a suspension. Nothing to lose now, they have to go for broke and gamble, whatever decisions Olsen makes are going to be at the expense of their defence, at least in terms of protection and I can see this getting very stretched.

For Dynamo everyone is still reporting doubts about several players....
REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

 

If you would like to receive all the GOWI daily notes in full, delivered directly to your inbox and at a very competitive price, send me an email at ...... gowi8@btinternet.com 

and I will forward details by return. 

Good Luck.

FRIDAY EMAIL ....

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16th

Two matches to discuss here and I will have the MLS Cup Playoffs and J-League matches 

( 5 match previews) in the follow up email which will be with you at 16.00 UK time today.

FRANCE : LIGUE 1

LORIENT- LILLE

Hosts are in a bad run, they are without a win in eight and have collected only one point in their last four starts, conceding an eyepopping 16 goals. Lille have a midweek Champions League trip to Belarus to face BATE ahead of them, but given their position in the group and their dismal showings against Bayern, I think that will be given scant consideration and that they will be fully focused on the three points tonight, which could take them up to second ahead of a trip south to play Marseille next week. They are unbeaten in five in the league, winning four and drawing on the road to Bordeaux, who won 4-0 here against Lorient last Sunday, it is very dangerous to compare form against common opponents, as there as so many variables, but it is "out there" now.The visitors have had a full six days to prepare for this, which has been a rare luxury this season and 24 hours longer than Lorient have to recover from the runaround they received. Just two losses for Lille this season, a home defeat to champions elect PSG and away to Rennes, which came just before an important CL match, at a time when they were focused on that competition, now it is all about Ligue 1. They arrive without midfielder Marvin Martin ( 9-0-1) who is suspended. The hosts are without a number of long term missing, plus left winger Maxime Barthelmé (11-1-1),midfielder AlainTraoré (9-4-3) and left back Lucas Mareque (6-0-2), these look key, they are unbeaten in six when Mareque plays, have lost 3 without him, Traoré has scored in each of their three wins, his absence puts a huge amout of pressure on fellow striker Jérémie Aliadière. 1.5 units Lille -0.25 2.03 asian line.

LORIENT: Lecomte, Audard,Pedrinho, Bourillon, Baca, Lautoa, Le Lan, Koné, Romao, Jouffre, Autret, Monnet-Paquet, Reale, Corgnet,Aliadière, Giuly, Sunu, Quercia

LILLE:BALMONT Florent,BASA Marko, BONNART Laurent, BRUNO Gianni, CHEDJOU Aurélien, DEBUCHY Mathieu, DE MELO Tulio, DIGNE Lucas, ELANA Steeve, GUEYE Idrissa, KALOU Salomon, KLONARIDIS Dorian, LANDREAU Mickael, MAVUBA Rio, PAYET Dimitri, PEDRETTI Benoit, ROZEHNAL David, ROUX Nolan,SIDIBE Djibril

REST OF THE EMAIL IS ONLY FOR SUBSCRIBERS...... for details
 contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
 
Good Luck .

TODAY'S EMAIL IN FULL ...... PLAYING AT THE FRIENDS ARENA....

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15th

Amazing day yesterday, someone has put together 12 minutes of Zlatan highlights link, which expain his performance far better than I could.

Gazelec managed a point despite having two players sent off (!), Northern Ireland should have scored four, but made us wait 96 minutes for one , still, at least it came ! 

There is much to like about Gazelec, they have a real go at teams and a shoot on sight policy, even hitting the woodwork late with nine men, when they were still looking for a winner. The playing surface there is terrible (even worse than the one at the Friends Arena !), goodness knows what it will be like by February. LINK  Because ot that and the style of play of the hosts, few visiting teams are going to enjoy trips here and we will definitely be returning to them later in the season.

No selections or previews today, but there will be two emails on Friday, no Ligue 2 this week, so the first at 10.00 UK time, will cover the other Friday matches and also include a look at the MLS Playoff matches taking place over the weekend, the second at 16.00 will focus solely on the Saturday J-League games.

There are some big changes happening over the next six weeks or so, after six and a half years on blogger, GOWI will be moving to it's own domain and that will give us a lot of additional options and will improve the service to subscribers.There should be a soft launch of the new site in a month or so and you should all be able to get an early look at it, before it is officially open. John, who looks after the social media side of things is overseeing all this, not my clumsy keyboard hands and this will give me more time to focus solely on email content.

Talking of emails, next week I am going to be sending two copies of every email, one in the traditional method and at the same time from an email manager, content will be absolutely identical, so you only need to read one, however, if any of you have time later in the week, I would be keen to know if there are any differences in delivery times between the two, I will ask about this towards the end of next week. Again, this should eventually provide an overall improvement in the product and will tie in with a couple of other new and exciting developments which are a little too early to discuss, but which should all be up and active, by the first week in January.

Exciting times, but the content is key and everything we are doing is designed to improve the overall quality of the service.

I know I go on about this, but to get the most from the service you really have to try and read the emails, there is a lot of useful information contained in the previews, the bottom line (red type) is one thing, a couple of dire recent weeks aside, it has been good for the previous seven months, but you miss out on a lot, by focusing solely on that. I talked about the black type "suggestions" last week and then there is the actual content, which, to my mind, is the most valuable of all. A couple of examples, on October 13th, I wrote the following about Bournemouth ahead of the visit from Leyton Orient ....

Oh My ! They said it couldn't happen but it has, Eddie Howe left Championship club Burnley to rejoin the Cherries currently in the League 1 drop zone. Howe left his heart in Dorset and the pull was too great, he is a Dorset lad from a Dorset family , is married to a local girl , only ever really played for Bournemouth ( two games for Portsmouth) and probably spent every month up North regretting his move and now he is going home. He and assistant Jason Tindall will be greeted like Prodigal Son(s), or the launch of the iPhone 5 for younger readers at Dean Court tomorrow and whilst any impact the pair might have will be minimal, the atmosphere inside the stadium will be incredible and will surely lift the team. They have yet to win at home this season, but have scored in all five and managed a draw in four of them, they went on a big run at exactly this stage last season, collecting 30 points from 14 matches from October until early February and a very similar run is far from impossible. They have spent big in 2012, albeit not entirely wisely, funded by their Russian owner, but Howe should get the best out of them and they have been creating chances, they currently lie third in the attempts on goal table and been averaging over three attempts per game more than Orient, who have recovered after a poor start to their own campaign, but have ridden their luck at times. How they beat Brentford last month will remain a mystery and they posted a similarly fortunate win at Walsall 11 days ago, they work hard but are limited and their defence troubles me, they have already lost 18 times in 2012 and I suspect it might be number 19 today. Hosts have had a tough sequence of matches and entertain league leaders Tranmere Rovers next week, before another very difficult road trip to Notts County, the points are easier today and all three would give them and Howe a real platform to build on.

The hosts won that 2-0, but if you look at the lines I have left in black type above , you will see that I was keen on Howe picking his beloved home town club up by the bootlaces and up the table, since then, they have played seven matches, won six, drew the other on the road at Notts County ( who have lost just 1 in 8) and posted a 19-7 goal difference.

I wrote in glowing terms about the offensive options Tony Mowbray had at his disposal at Middlesbrough in late September and they have gone unbeaten through nine matches in October/November , knocking a PL side out of the cup and scoring two or more in six of their eight league starts, moving up from 12th to second in the Championship.

I watched Crystal Palace play Sheffield Wednesday on September 1st and told you that I was "impressed with them" and felt that "they would kick on from there", with "Bolasie and Zaha both running at teams" and Murray back scoring goals.They were in the bottom three then, but are now top of the Championship and unbeaten (9-3-0) since that day.

At times, I get plenty wrong, but it is normally just the timing that is off and I might opt to follow a team a week or two too early, but the basic reasoning is good and there are a LOT of potential winners in the previews between the headline and the red type, the notes are definitely worth reading, especially with the lesser known teams and it is this which separates GOWI from any other service.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

GOWI UPDATE ....

I have previewed five matches on the email service, four of tonight's Ligue 2 matches and tomorrow's AFC Champions League final.  I have posted one of them in the post below and I suspect that John will put up some snippets from the others on our Twitter page either tonight, or definitely tomorrow and/ or a full match preview on the GOWI Facebook page at some stage over the weekend.

There will be two emails on each of Saturday and Sunday and I will be sending at least one to everyone in my database, along with a special offer. If you have written to GOWI before, you are already on the list, if not, then all you need to do is send an email to gowi8@btinternet.com with the subject title GOWI, you do not even have to write a message. How simple is that !

Details of the email servive can be found on the " How Everything Works" page.

Good Luck.

THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE ....

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9th

Next email will be Saturday morning at 10.00 UK time, no J-League matches scheduled.

I am going to start with the Saturday AFC Champions League final, which is a morning kick off for those of us based in Europe. Ulsan Hyundai are hosting the one legged final......

 

MATCH PREVIEW ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS ....contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

FRANCE: LIGUE 1
No weather issues in France tonight and most of the matches look set to be played in pretty good football conditions.

GUINGAMP- TOURS

Tours did us a favour last week, but our reasons for siding with them, had a lot more to do with the Le Mans problems ( more about those later) than any Tours prowess and defensively, the visitors are struggling, especially on the road, where they have already conceded a league high 15 goals. Six of those came in their last two away days, at Laval and Istres, neither are particular known as teams who put others to the sword, Laval could easily have doubled their tally and it is very difficult not to see Giungamp, who have won their last three and who would move into the top three with a win, enjoying themselves offensively tonight. We spoke about the hosts early season and I made quite a big deal about how unlucky they had been and that this was a team much better than results suggested, which has been born out by their rise up the table. Coach Jocelyn Gourvennec has a good mix of youthful talent and experience and his team have goals in them, with only Caen and Monaco scoring more. 

 

However, they have conceded more than any team in the top seven, including ten here on home soil, where they play very openly and games have averaged 3.83 goals per start and there might be some comfort in those stats for Tours, especially given the defensive issues for Guingamp this evening. The hosts are also without right-back Jonathan Martins Pereira (13-0-1), left back Paul Babiloni (7-0-1 only one clean sheet in the six matches he has missed, which came against struggling Sedan) and defensive midfielder Gianelli Imbula (11-0-1), they are very short of options defensively, especially on the left, with Dorian Leveque having missed all season and it is hard to see them keeping a cleansheet. Tours are without suspended striker Ali Gherieni (10-0-1), but scored twice without him last week. Also missing are a host of fringe/ long term injured players, but none which can now be seen as key. Both to score and Guingamp to win, but I think far and away the best value is 1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 1.90 asian line.

Guingamp : Mam. Samassa, Planté - Sankoh, Bellugou, Cerdan, Ma. Camara, Charrier, Mathis, Kerbrat, Giresse, Mandanne, Mu. Yatabaré, Argelier, Atik, R. Alioui, Fauré. 

 

Tours : Leroy, Maubleu - Tritz, Tomas, Schwechlen, Moimbé, Berenguer, Oniangué, Gamiette, Gherieni, Blayac, Bergougnoux, Fontaine, Seguin, Boukaka, Biancardini.

NANTES-CHATEAUROUX

Nantes : Ré. Riou, Zelazny - I. Cissokho, Djilobodji, Cichero, Veigneau, Eudeline, B. Touré, Deaux, Bessat, Veretout, Djordjevic, Madouni, I. Keita, Trébel, Lee. 

Châteauroux : Millieras, Caradec - Nestor, Sambou, Afougou, Neves, Beauvue, Guerriero, De Freitas, Tainmont, Essombé, Jeannot, Foumier, Hautcœur, Orinel, Allart.

ARLES- LAVAL

Arles-Avignon : Butelle, Yattara - Cantini, Abdelhamid, Zarour, Quintin, Ou. N'Diaye, Rocchi, Plessis, Cardy, Savanier, Douniama, Suarez, Soro, Piéroni, Roufosse, Akale

Laval : Balijon, Hautbois - Belaud, Rose, Talmont, Falette, Perrot, Gonçalvès, Ewolo, Gamboa, Do Marcolino, Viale, Betsch, Le Baron, Gimbert, Lebouc.

DIJON - NIMES

Dijon : Reynet, Tchagouni - Bamba, Varrault, 0. Cissé, Souprayen, Paye, Mollet, Bérenguer, Caceres, Guerbert, Tavares, Rémy, Paulle, Malouda, Babit. 

 

Nîmes : Merville, Al-Shaïbani - Sidibé, Poulain, Boche, Parpeix, Bouby, Amewou, Bénezet, Gragnic, Ogounbiyi, Robail, Koné, Haddou, Piocelle, Thibault.

GAZELEC AJACCIO- SEDAN

GFCO Ajaccio : Maury, Rastello - Bocognano, Landre, Romey, Poggi, Y. Touré, Colinet, Laïfa, Davidas, Chevalier, Saadi, Verdier, Filippi, Sinapi, Colloredo, Mandrichi. 

 

Sedan : Perraud, Lembet - K. Boli, Bellaïd, Pogba, Pinteaux, Marcq, Aït Ben Idir, E. Koné, Sliti, Kinkela, Abd. Diaby, Bongongui, Le Bihan, Makhedjouf, Kal. Traoré.

ISTRES- LE MANS

Istres : Petric, Véronèse - Chafik, Chelle, Barillon, D. Moulin, I. Ba, Bru, Fettouhi, De Préville, Akrour, Tardieu, Sainati, Tarasconi, Niangbo, Yahia-Chrif. 

 

Le Mans : Janot, Makaridze - Cuffaut, Ma. Doumbia, Mo. Koné, Buaillon, Ma. Kanté, Zito, F. Thomas, Baby, I. Sylla, Thomert, Kassai, Sanson, Derouard, Belfort.

Good Luck.

Contact:gowi8@btinternet.com

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING..... MILAN OVER THE ZLATAN HANGOVER ?

 

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 6th

There is a follow up email at 17.00 today, which is effectively the first Wednesday email and that will focus mainly on the morning J-League fixtures, but I might also look at couple of tonight's Championship fixtures.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

I am going to start with a quick look at Group C, my first thought is that I wonder how many people would have been injured in the stampede to get on Milan at 2.10 + and xxxx at odds against off xxxx xxxx a couple of months ago ?

Malaga have made the dream start, are yet to concede and one more win, wherever that may come, will see them progress. Having won 3-0 in Belgium, I am sure they will see next month's visit from Anderlecht as their ace in the hole and they might be able to relax a little more this evening, having started very nervously in their home game with Milan. The Spanish side have struggled a little since then, drawing with Espanol and losing at home to Rayo Vallecano on  Saturday, they might have been distracted by this fixture of course, but it was equally likely that new financial problems at the cash stricken club did not help matters, the players were not paid again last month and there was talk locally, that they had lost on "purpose". Either way, it is far from an ideal build up. Milan have been dire this season, but something happened at half time in Palermo last week, 2-0 down at the break, they fought back to snatch a point and followed up with a 5-1 defeat of Chievo, they finally went back to that four man defence in that and the difference was night and day, easily their best performance of the season. Bojan Krkic scored his first goal for the club and this are finally starting to come together for them. A point could be valuable, especially if Zenit do not win the other group game, but a win would make things so much easier and I cannot let these odds pass. Milan had chances in the reverse fixture and might be over the Zlatan "hangover", three points tonight would get the supporters back on their side too. 1.25 units  Milan -0.5 ball 2.14 asian line.

MILAN: Abbiati, Amelia, Gabriel, Abate, Bonera, De Sciglio, Mexes, Yepes, Zapata, Ambrosini, Boateng, Constant, De Jong, Emanuelson, Montolivo, Nocerino, Bojan, El Shaarawy, Pato, Pazzini, Robinho.

PREVIEW AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS TO THE EMAIL SERVICE 

contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

 

It is hard to make a case for Borussia Dortmund winning in the Bernabeu, but they are certainly no shrinking violets and anyone who saw their match at Manchester City knows that only a stunning display from Joe Hart stopped them from scoring 3-4 goals. I see no real point in them sitting back and there will surely be goals in this. Real have yet to keep a cleansheet in three CL starts, conceding two here to City, just as they did in high scoring wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Apoel ( oh happy days ! LINK) last season. If it is available to you, a very small bet on Dortmund to score "over" 1.5 goals at circa 3.40 +, there is some 3.75 around, would give some interest in what seems certain to be a hugely entertaining match. This is definitely a bet we can win big with in the CL before the end of the group games, with either Real or Barcelona.

LEAGUE 1 : 

PREVIEW AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS TO THE EMAIL SERVICE 

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LEAGUE 2 :

 

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Good Luck.

 

 EMAIL #2

 

Championship and J-League matches in this email, including a bet @ odds of 60-1 +.

CHAMPIONSHIP:

BOLTON WANDERERS- LEICESTER CITY

 

The job that Dougie Freedman did at Crystal Palace was incredible, not just on the pitch, but off it too, where he instilled a lot of pride and discipline into the players and those traits can take both Wanderers and him, a long way.

The hosts were really buoyed by the win over highflying Cardiff City on Saturday, it did come at a cost, with goalscorer David Ngog being red carded and he will miss out tonight, but to come from behind against the league leaders on the new manager's home debut was a dream start and Fredman can take a lot of the credit, with his tactical changes turning the match on it's head.  These are exciting times for Bolton, Freedman is the real deal and they have the squad to make a big promotion push, they might only be up to 17th after the win, but they are just five points off a playoff spot and 5.50 for promotion might very quickly look like a big price, especially if they follow up tonight.

He managed to get his number two from Palace, the hugely experienced Lennie Lawrence to join him and described it as "one of the best signings Bolton will ever make" ,  Adding I'm the driver of this ship, I will drive it through commitment, effort, desire and honesty. Lennie Lawrence will steer it." Great comment !

I doubt that Freedman will make any changes from the starting eleven ( Ngog started on the bench against City), a quick look at that bench gives you some idea (apart from salary), about why DF moved North, alongside Ngog, he had another five players with EPL experience, including Arsenal and England U19 striker Benik Afobe, Jay Spearing who has played in the CL, Marvin Sordell England U21 striker and Martin Petrov and international with 300 top flight games in the EPL, Primera and Bundesliga.  In addition, the hugley talented Stuart Holden is set to resume full training soon, after missing 18 months and that would be like getting a top quality EPL midfielder in on a free transfer.

City are a bit up and down and I have to admit, to not quite knowing where to rank them at present, they looked very good and then were completely outplayed in turn, away to Birmingham and Watford respectively, but didn't win either and also lost at home to Palace inbetween, with a narrow defeat of Brighton also shoehorned into the mix. They get Ritchie De Laet (11-0-0) back from a ban, but lose another central defender to a red card in Zak Whitbread (5-0-0), RDL will play on the right and will probably mean Liam Moore again moving into the middle, something he did for five matches earlier in the season, but City lost three of those. This is a problem position for City and they desperately need Sean St Ledger back, they have won six from six when he plays, anyway, this is something they should have addressed by now,but they haven't and I expect Wanderers to exploit it. Freedman (sort of) and Lawrence have already beaten City once and can do so again.1.75 units Bolton Wanderers level ball 1.84 asian line.

Edit: After typing this, I saw City signed two youngsters on loan from Manchester United, including central defender Michael Keane, he could play tonight, which might help, but I still favour Bolton.

 

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SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY- BLACKPOOL

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Given my knack of being able to preview games where there always seems to be a red card, I should point out that tonight's referee Andy D’Urso has sent off three players in his last four games.

J-LEAGUE:
VISSEL KOBE- YOKOHAMA F.MARINOS

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Yokohama have only conceded 15% of their goals in the first 30 minutes of play, but scored 33% and conceded 36% in the last 15.

SAGAN TOSU- JUBILO IWATA

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KASHIWA REYSOL- GAMBA OSAKA

Ahead of their last road game, at Frontale, I spoke about Gamba ......
No real problems for either side today and for me, this is all about motivation. Kawasaki Frontale are nine points clear of the drop zone and that buffer gives them a degree of safety and one more win, whenever it comes, should secure their survival and their need today is nowhere near as great as for Gamba. The visitors have had to sit and brood on a very frustrating 2-1 loss at Sendai for two weeks, where they held out for 76 minutes , that came after they were unbeaten in three before that, including a 5-0 win at Urawa. They have plenty of goals in them and are, incredibly, the top scorers in J-League with 55 goals, just shy of two per game, unfortunately, they have conceded exactly the same number ! Already three points from safety , defeat here could leave Gamba, top three in seven of the last eight seasons, facing the humiliation of relegation squarely in the face and they host the league leaders next week. Easier points on offer today IMO , Gamba have been playing better than Frontale for a couple of months and I expect them to get a hugely valuable win today.

They won that 3-2 and followed up with a 1-1 draw at home to the league leaders, Reysol have a small chance for a top 3 spot and a place in the ACL ( doesn't half the J-League), but will need the win and only the win to keep that dream alive, these sorts of games play into the hands of Gamba, who love a shootout and given their dire need for points, being three from safety, I have to side with them and also goals.

Team news is not worth anything here, both will look for the win, both will score and Gamba's need is great. Shame that all the influential Brazilians in this game on both sides are not Italians, they could arrange this nicely, 3-4 to Gamba, something like that, it could be that anyway, or at least 2-3. Both Leandro's are said to be doubts, Leandro Domingues ( 25-9-8) for the hosts and Leandro Montera da Silva (11-11-1), they are obviously hugely important, but I cannot believe we will not see the latter and maybe the former will do his countrymen a favour and sit this one out ! 1.25 units Gamba Osaka -0.25 ball 2.25 asian line  and 0.5 units "over" 4.5 goals @ circa 3.25 +.

Kashiwa are vunerable either side of the break, having conceded 37% of their goals between the 30th-60th minute, only 34% in the final third, which is a very odd split.

Lots of goals as we know when Gamba play, 29 scored and conceded between the 15th and 30th minute and they have conceded 34% in the last 15 minutes in all competitions, which in their case, is a whopping 26 goals !

VEGALTA SENDAI - CEREZO OSAKA

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Vegalta have scored 72% of goals after the break.

 

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oshimaSanfreece Hiroshima

Good Luck.

JUST ANOTHER MANIC MONDAY ......

I hope that most of you took advantage of the free preview yesterday LINK, Houston Dynamo won 2-0 and are now in pole position to knock Sporting Kansas City out of the post season for the second year running.

I have just sent subscribers two previews for tonight's matches and have a massive day planned for tomorrow, with a full Football League programme scheduled, in addition to the Champions League matches and I will also be sending out my match previews for the full round of J-League action, taking place on Wednesday morning !

A very busy start to the new week.

If you wish to receive all my daily notes, including tomorrow's jam packed editions, send an email to me at ... gowi8@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .......THE BIGGER PICTURE

Small profit yesterday, way off the mark with two matches, but to be honest, today is the big day of the week for me. I have already sent subscribers previews of six football matches, one each from Italy, Spain and the EPL and in the follow up email, two from Brazil, where we remain in incredible form this season and another from the MLS playoffs. Two "strong" selections in that second email. I will also be sending subscribers my NFL notes later this afternoon, that is a lot of value for their 2-3 euros per day ! Seriously ..... I am a fool to myself !

If you are interested in getting the full email service notes every day, there is some infornation at the foot of the Ligue 2 post below and details of how everything works on this LINK.

If you are just happy with the odd free preview that is fine and I am sure that either John on the social media pages or myself on here,will post something later today, but remember, you are only getting to see a very small part of a much bigger picture.

Good Luck.

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TGIF .....

FRANCE : LIGUE 2

The weather in France is a bit dismal almost everywhere, with a lot of rain and some high winds around. Worst conditions are set for the middle of the day and by kick off, all of "our" matches should be played in normal November weather, but it will be a little sticky underfoot at most grounds.

CHATEAUROUX - DIJON

Chateauroux are 3-3-0 at home and have only lost twice all season, but a lot of draws for them, seven in total, which is more than they managed in the whole of last season. Central defender Massamba Sambou (8-0-0) returns from suspension, this is timely, as fellow centre back Remi Fournier (10-0-0) misses his third straight game and Chat have conceded in both. No other problems for the hosts and on paper this looks good for them, with the visitors struggling big time.

After a solid start to the season ( unbeaten through their first six), Dijon have not won in six and goals have been a problem since the sale of Benjamin Corgnet to Lorient and this has been compounded by the injuries to strikers Gregory Thil (4-0-1) and Brice Jovial (8-3-2). Right back Abdoulaye Bamba (10-0-0) is suspended and things do not look good for the visitors. However, and there is always an however, I not not entirely trust the hosts and feel they are not as good at home as that record suggests and also that Dijon have a lot more to offer and that it is time for those front men that are getting a run in the team, Kone, Tavares and Caceres to start contributing on a more regular basis. They have a good recent record here scoring three on each of their last two league visits and posting a win on penalties here in the cup back in August, which finished 2-2 in regulation time, with Kone scoring. Dijon have also scored eight in the two most recent reverse fixtures and that will give the club and many of the players, a lot of recent and positive mental memories. I am taking the "over", I expect an improved performance from Dijon and saw a little in the away losses to Nantes and Niort, at least going forward, to offer hope. Just one clean sheet in seven for the hosts and that came in a match where they were looking for 0-0 from the outset, which will not be the case this evening.

1.25 units "Over" 2.25 goals 2.11 asian line.

Châteauroux : Millieras, Caradec - Nestor, Sambou, Afougou, Neves, Beauvue, Guerriero, Hautcœur, Tainmont, Jeannot, Essombé, Fauque, De Freitas, Orinel, Allart. 

 

Dijon : Reynet, Tchagouni - Paulle, Rémy, O. Cissé, Varrault, Souprayen, Baradji, Mollet, Sankharé, Guerbert, Caceres, F. Bérenguer, Tavares, Paye, K. Koné.

 

I really like the Ligue 2 fixtures today, this is one of our best leagues and I have sent subscribers previews of four other games ( five in total) and they will also get a follow up email looking at the overnight action later this afternoon.

 

If you like the GOWI match previews, I really urge you to consider subscribing to the email service, it is not "cheap", but the daily rate is low and it offers terrific value for money and if you are not winning on a regular basis, it will really help your gambling portfolio.

 

Send me an email at gowi@@btinternet.com to get full details of the service and news of a special offer.

Good Luck.