THURSDAY : UPDATE

I am going to reproduce my full daily email notes on the blog today shortly. 

Please take a few minutes to read them in full, results do not matter short term, content does.

This is one day's notes, it costs very little to receive the email every morning directly to your inbox, if you find the information of use and IMO you would be stupid not to and if that is the case, why are you even looking at the blog ? Then please contact me on...... gowi8@ btinternet.com ......and I will get back to you with further details of how to take the next step.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY: ILIE MAKES MY DAY !

Wimbledon has gone INCREDIBLY well so far and I also have a couple of really nice long term positions on the championship ( see below).

Three from four yesterday and two nice bets in prospect today, along with a MLS selection, all of which are odds against quotes, which is just the way I like it.

However, highlight for me at this, or any other recent Wimbledon, was the sight of Ilie Nastase in the Royal Box in a dinner jacket, complete with military piping and medals. The ever colourful Romanian also saluted anyone who caught his eye, including Boris Becker who was sat nearby..... absolutely fantastic and made my day !

The photo is brilliant, everone around him trying to look busy !

I have to take my pleasures anywhere I can get them , when my beloved Bees are in the off season !

Wimbledon can only get better for me personally, if it a) stops raining and b) either Agnieszka Radwanska or Victoria Azarenka wins the final .

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY : WIMBLEDON : A LOOK AHEAD

We are now down to the last 16 in both main draws at Wimbledon and the Ladies Singles looks like this ....

SHARAPOVA  3.50- LISICKI 70.0

CLIJSTERS  16.0-KERBER 38.0

RADWANSKA 17.0 - GIORGI 290.0

KIRILENKO 230.0- PENG 300.0

WILLIAMS 4.60- SHEVDOVA 110.0

SCHIAVONE 240.0- KVITOVA 6.40

PASZEK 29.0 - VINCI 250.0

IVANOVIC 90.0- AZARENKA 8.0

I have some strong and maybe surprising ideas for the Championships this week, but will save the first of those for tommorow's email, for now, I just want to take a brief look at how the overall tournament looks.

Alongside each player are their top available outright quotes, that is virtually a 100% book, but for our purposes, is just a guide.

We are on Azarenka at up to 10.0 and I hope that some of you may have paired that with a little of the circa 70.0 highlighted about Radwanska ( see below).The draw has opened up nicely for her and both have a  favourite's chance of making the last four.

Masha still has a very difficult draw, having to face Lisicki and then either Clijsters or Kerber, just to make the semis, I said she was way too short at the offset and have seen little to change my mind, of course, she could win, but that is very different from being even a fair price and her odds from day 1, have been a bit of a joke.

Three Italian women in the last 16, Vinci and Schiavone have been playing here a long time, but neither has ever got past R3 previously, having said that, Vinci is making very few unforced errors ( 8 per match) and Schiavone did not have quite as gruelling a French Open as usual. Giorgi is interesting, she won through qualifying and has yet to drop a set in six matches .

I have spotted something about one of these three that I am pretty excited about and will share it with you in the morning email.

Serena - Kvitova in the quarters would be something to behold...... REST OF THE EMAIL IS RESTRICTED


WIMBLEDON : LADIES SINGLES OUTRIGHT ( sent to subscribers Sunday June 24th)

I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.

The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.

Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.

Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !

The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final her as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, at the very bottom of the draw, things look quite good for Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka and she should be able to ease her way into the second week. She has reached the last eight in two of the last three years, losing to the eventual champion both times, Serena in 09 and Kvitova last year. Actually she has lost to the Czech player in each of the last two years, but took the champion, who was in imperious form, to three sets and arrives here this time with the additional confidence of not only being a grand slam winner, but having thrashed Sharapova 3&0 in that final.

Azarenka is 38-5 for the year, but 26-1 on fast courts, Roland Garros was a disappointment to her, but I feel that much of that is down to the fact that now she expects to win, or go very deep in all the majors. She took time out afterwards and went home to Minsk, I would prefer that she had at least played some grass court tennis, but the Belarus superstar knows her body well and has tended to return fresher and ready to do herself justice from these self enforced breaks. She is still prone to losing it sometimes, but these concerns are offset by her outright odds of 9.0 +, which are almost double what I made her , my price being around 5.0 .

She added Amelie Mauresmo to her team as a consultant in April, this was on a week to week basis and whilst I am not certain that they will be in London together, it would seem odd in the extreme to add a Wimbledon champion to your camp through Roland Garros and then let the arrangement drop for the All England Championships. However, even if that was the case, I feel sure that the astute Mauresmo would already have passed on some useful information, if the pair are together, it would be a huge plus, extra bonus would be that Mauresmo is a very calmimg influence too.

Azarenka took Kvitova close last year, despite making a very sluggish start to their semi and in the quarters she gace Paszek a bit of a thumping, she had eight break points against the huge serving champion, which she didn't make the most of and played to a high level right through her six matches, averaging just eight unforced errors per start, I expect her to go well and love the price, she can be vunerable early, but the draw has been kinder to her than most and we have to bet. 1.25 units Victoria Azarenka outright 9.0 +... there is some 9.8 on the exchanges and 10.0 in a place.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY : A LOOK BACK AT WIMBLEDON

Pretty spot on with the tennis yesterday, Zheng took Serena all the way, Petra Kvitova won easily and the "saver" position at big odds in the Querrey-Cilic marathon ( there was plenty of 7.0 around). meant that we didn't have to sit through marathon 32 game last set on the edge of our seats ! ( see below)

WIMBLEDON : ( sent to subscribers SAT 30/06)

JIE ZHENG- SERENA WILLIAMS

VARVARA LEPCHENKO- PETRA KVITOVA

SAM QUERREY-MARIN CILIC

Three matches to discuss fairly briefly.

The Chinese player can play a little on grass and made the semis here in 2008, where she lost to Serena 6-2 7-6. That day Williams served incredible well, 14 aces , 87% of points won on first serve and yet still Zheng found a way to get competitive in the second set and almost took it into a third.

Serena has not played anyone of note so far, but has lost an average of 5.5 games, despite hardly losing a point on serve against Melinda Czink and it is unlikely even she can reach those serving heights again today, especially with the wind getting up. Zheng is battle hardened with this her 11th match on the surface in the last three weeks. I definitely think she can take six games and like her getting a 6.5 game handicap start. Sometimes Williams can get distracted and dispite winning easily, she has looked a little "down" at times during the early rounds, anyway, this one to be closer than expected for me.

I expect the opposite in other Women's singles and for Kvitova to win the battle of the two lefties with a degree of ease.

The pair have met twice already and the defending champion won 1& 2 in Miami and 2&1 at Roland Garros, a surface which doesn't play to her strengths. Now that she is on her beloved grass, it is very hard to see beyond another  very easy win, her smooth as silk swing produces explosive power and she take players to areas of the court they didn't know existed with her acute angles. I was very impressed with her against Baltacha, not just that her awesome serve was already close to full throttle, but she showed a ruthless streak, that we expect from Sharapova , but have all too rarely seen from Kvitova before. She was fighting for every single point, as though it was match point and I cannot see here losing more than five games today, so -6.5 games Kvitova would be my pick.

Querrey and Cilic looks like being a titanic struggle, between two giants who both bomb the ball down.

They have met twice before, both on grass, here in 2009, which was a 55 game five set battle won by Cilic and he also won at Queens just a couple of weeks ago, in a match which also went the distance. It is hard not to see this being similarly close and another five sets would certainly not surprise.

I think the US player has a chance and he looks on the big side at current quotes, he had 28 break points across the two matches, Cilic just 12. He was pretty much the dominant player in the last meeting, especially in the first and second set, which he lost the first after failing to convert any of a host of break points and also getting troubled by a blister on his thumb.

Querrey is very focused to do well here, he missed last year through surgery and has had huge problems getting his ranking back up , he was previously top 20 and only early this year got back into the top 100, he can go top 50 with a win today and that is massive for him, he has been described previously as being as aggressive as a "man walking a dog" and has tried to find a more ruthless side to his game recently. He beat Milos Raonic in the last round taking two of the three tie breaks and Raonic has arguably,  the biggest serve on tour, certainly the most aces. Querrey said afterwards, "Lately, I feel like I have been a little more vocal, little more showing that I just want it because it's been a year. This is definitely my biggest win in a long time. It was a big moment, a big court, and it feels great." He has pledged to be very aggressive today and to go after every point.

I like 1.25 units Querrey to win @ 3.15 + on the exchanges, there is bigger available for lowish liquidity and I am pretty sure he will trade shorter at some stage. How about a small "saver" 0.5 units on Cilic to win 3-2 in sets @ circa 6.0.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY : J - LEAGUE MESSAGE

I have finished those J-League notes earlier than expected, team news and previews of four of tomorrow's matches, I will forward them at exactly 18.00 UK time.

Check your inbox.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY : CAN I HAVE A "P" PLEASE BOB ?

A large number of blog readers got to see my full daily notes yesterday, in addition to the J-League notes (see below), Portugal, Tamira Paszek ( given and held over from Tuesday) and the Sharapova-Pironkova "over" completed a cleansweep of red type selections and there was also a winning "suggestion" at odds of 6.0. All from just six event previews, to be honest, it was about as perfect an email as possible.

There was a definite P theme going on with Portugal, Paszek and Pironkova !

There was also a very special offer to sign up to the service long term, at an incredible rate, a sum so low it would have been possible to win it by investing a few euros on the selections from just that one email .

I also laid out my plans for the rest of the week, two selections today, the remaining Euro 2012 semi-final and one match from Wimbledon, where I have a strong opinion on each and .....

FRIDAY 29/06: 

Email to be sent @ 10.00 UK time   Content: Wimbledon tennis, Irish Premier League, MLS football

SATURDAY 30/06:

 Email #1 to be sent@ 09.00 UK time  Content: J-League football

 

 Email #2 to be sent @ 11.00 UK time Content: Wimbledon tennis, MLS football ( where I have some very strong news)

SUNDAY 01/07:

 

Email to be sent @ 11.00 UK time  Content: Euro 2012 Final, Brazil Serie A, Irish Open Golf Round 4, PGA Tour Golf Round 4.

I have been in pretty good form for three months now and feel very much on top of things at the moment, I will definitely try to post a preview on here over the weekend, obviously not my strongest news, which as always. is only for the email.

In the meantime, good luck !

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY : YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE !

Seattle Sounders were well backed yesterday and ran out 1-0 winners in what was an ill tempered affair, with fists flying at the final whistle.

A LOT of you also got to see a copy of my daily notes today, as I sent out a host of free copies, I wrote this about the morning J-League fixtures.....

J- LEAGUE :

Just a few notes and some team news about the J-League games which kick off at 11.00 UK time today.

FC TOKYO - KASHIWA REYSOL

Injury problems starting to build up for Tokyo,  starting defender Kosuke Ota is out and key midfielders Yohei Kajiyama who left the field injured at the weekend and Maohiro Ishikawa who has missed the last two starts are both big doubts, the pair have 34 starts with five goals ( two of only five squad players with more than a single J-L goal) and seven asists between them are going to be sorely missed if they fail to make it, especially as fringe midfielders Otake and Tanabe and also unavailable.

No such problems for Reysol, infact, they are boosted by the return from supsension of Tatsuya Masushima, the central defender is one of the first names on the team sheet and will be very motivated returning to the club where he started his career.

Both will probably look to win this game in hand as three points would take the hosts up to 3rd and Kashiwa, who are defending champions, possibly into seventh, the visitors look to be cranking up through the gears and have taken 13 points from a possible 15. Tokyo were terrible in a loss to Yokohama after the break, before beating Cerezo Osaka at the weekend, but their opponent had played three times since the return to domestic football and were a little drained. If you see confirmed news pre kick off and Kajiyama and Ishikawa both miss out, I would be very keen on Reysol.

GAMBA OSAKA - NAGOYA GRAMPUS

There are normally goals when these two meet, last 20 h2h matches have averaged 3.75 goals, with both teams on the scoresheet on 38 of the 40 occasions in that sequence, both teams have finally found some goals in recent weeks and this trend looks set to continue. Three points would take Nagoya into the top 4 and Gamba, who have finished top 3 in seven of the last eight seasons, to within one point of safety at the foot of the table, they currently trail Omiya by four points and have a tough sequence of fixtures on the horizon .

For Gamba key right sided defender Akira Kaji remains out, Grampus are still without midfielders Isomura and Nakamura, but that have had only limited playing time this season, Keiji Tamada( 3 goals, 3 assists) missed the last two games and is a doubt along with Danilson the Columbian holding midfielder.

Nagoya would like to win, but even at this stage of the season, it is starting to look vital for Gamba to get something from this one. If Tamada and Danilson miss out for the visitors, the hosts might take all three points, but it won't be with a cleansheet. Goals look very likely.

Kajiyama and Ishikawa both failed to make the line up and Reysol won 1-0, who scored I hear you ask .... Tatsuya Masushima !

Goals came in the Gamba- Grampus match, four in total, three inside the opening 25 minutes .

The info on these three games are not even official selections , the daily notes are a "must have" if you are betting on a regular basis....... come on guys, you know it makes sense, take the plunge, before it is too late !

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

US OPEN CUP ....

The US Open Cup game tonight between San Jose Earthquakes and the Seattle Sounders looked good ( really good) when I first looked at the fixture last week, hosts are playing at San Francisco's Kezar Stadium (see photograph) which is almost a neutral venue and have not played a home game of any sort in 38 days. They have just completed a four game road trip, which included trips to Colorado and Slt Lake in the last six days, if that was not bad enough, at the weekend, they have what is being hyped up as the biggest game in recent history, when the Western Division leaders host current champions and resurgent LA Galaxy at Stanford Stadium, the match is set to be a 50,000 sell out, only a few tickets remain and is being nationally televised. It is being called the Bay Area sporting event of the summer ( not sure about that !) and gives this Lamar Hunt cup quarter final tonight low priority, we should see plenty of rotation from the "hosts".

No fear of Seattle not taking the competition seriously, not only are they the current holders of the cup, but they have won it three straight years and are looking to make it four in a row. The Sounders are desperate for a victory of any sort after going seven MLS starts without a win, following a very promising start to their campaign during which they won seven of their first nine matches. I would be ultra keen on them tonight getting a 0.25 handicap start in asia, BUT they played at Portland on Sunday night, the Earthquakes in Salt Lake on Saturday, so the benefits of playing a strong line up, are offset by the fact that those players will only have had a single rest day between games.

That, and the fact that confidence is low within the Sounders camp is enough to stop me putting it up as an "official" selection, however, they will come good sooner or later and these cup games have a very different feel from MLS fixtures and the visitors do have players coming back from injury. Michael Gspurning and Adam Johansson are on the verge of recovering from their injuries and Patrick Ianni and Leo Gonzalez are both back, which will strengthen the defense Steve Zakuani is easing back into his first appearance of the season, having already made the squad against Sporting Kansas City last midweek and we might see a couple of these tonight. On the Sounders website , coach Sigi Schmid said  that the team doesn’t need to undergo any sort of overhaul to get back on track.“The pieces are here. We played with quality last year and we played with quality at the beginning of the year this year,”

I have to pass, but if "pushed"could only go with Sounders, as Earthquakes have such a massive game ahead, a fixture which is huge in terms of the whole future development of the franchise.

 

However, I do have two red type selections for today .....THE REST OF TODAY'S NOTES ARE RESTRICTED.

 

Good Luck.

 

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

HAPPY HOUR ! ...... SCROLL DOWN TO BOTTOM OF POST

SUNDAY JUNE 24th

A really big day in prospect, two emails again, in this I will look at tonight's Euro 2012 match between Italy and England and also give my early thoughts on Wimbledon, where I have a big odds selection that I really like and a strong bet from the overnight South American fixtures. The follow up email should be with you by 12.00 UK time and that will include a look at Round 4 of the Travelers Championship and probably one more late night football game, where I am just waiting for some confirmed team news.

EURO 2012: ITALY - ENGLAND

 PREVIEW RESTRICTED

WIMBLEDON : LADIES SINGLES OUTRIGHT

I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.

The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.

Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.

Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !

The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final here as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, ........

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

BRAZIL SERIE A: 


PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Good Luck.

EMAIL #2

I was very pleased with my notes yesterday, aside from the France defeat of course ! The J-League team news was very useful and I will definitely be giving more of this in the coming weeks and we had a cleansweep on the MLS games, not only that, but San Jose scored those two goals and LA Galaxy the three. But I was especially pleased with the Philadelphia Union preview, having been strongly against them last week, it would have been easy to simply write them off this week.

I am passing on the two remaining MLS fixtures this weekend and ...... NOTES RESTRICTED

PGA TOUR

TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP: LEADERBOARD

-12 DAVIS  9th in 2011 with a final round of 66

-12 THATCHER

-10 ROLLINS  2nd in 2011 fr 63

-10 DRISCOLL 5th 2011 fr 67

-10 APPLEBY

-9 HARRINGTON 5th 2010 fr 64

-9 KUCHAR

-9 CLARK

-9 HOFFMAN

-9 CLAXTON

-9 JACOBSON won in 2011 fr 66

-8 four golfers including Bubba Watson won in 2010 fr 66 and 14th in 2010 with a fr 63

-7 four golfers including Webb Simpson 13th 2011 fr 69

19 golfers within five strokes of the lead and the tournament is still wide open.

I do not think I have seen a tournament where so many golfers with good and recent previous form on the course, are in contention on Sunday. I have put those outings alongside each golfer in blue type.

Davis, Thatcher and Driscoll have still to claim that all important first PGA Tour win and nine second place finishes between them, indicates a clear inability to get the job done, until they force their way across the finishing line, I would be loathe to put them up as potential winners.

Appleby is a prolific winner, but will not be improving at 41 yo and has not been in any kind of contention for almost two years, a 21st place finish is the best he has managed in 31 starts and whilst he could win, I prefer to look elsewhere.

Padraig Harrington has shown definite signs of running into form in recent weeks, not least when 4th in the US Open last week, but he has now played three weeks in a row, which is a lot of golf for him and last week was TOUGH! Also, he has played the last six holes in -1 this week, which is six strokes more than Kuchar and Clark and although he looks a winner in waiting, it might not be this week.

Watson ,Simpson and Kuchar are recent winners, but the first two named have a lot of golfers in front of them, Simpson won last week and whilst he holds his form well, the huge media attention as the latest major winner will surely have taken it's toll, Watson has played the last six holes in one over par, most of the leaders are circa -5 or better and it is hard to see him making up four strokes on eleven + golfers all of whom are playing the closing holes better this week.............

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

Good Luck.

To receive full daily notes , delivered to you by email each and everyday ...... contact : gowi8@btinternet.com   HAPPY HOUR(S) TODAY SUNDAY 16.00-20.00 EMAIL FOR DETAILS !

SUNDAY MORNING .....

OK, I lost the "minimal" bet on France yesterday, but got everything else in my notes spot on and I mean everything, my few lines about the J-League were on the money, despite the asian markets moving the other way and not only did I get three from three right with my "official" selections in the MLS (see below.... sent to subscribers 12 hours before kick offs), but also put up San Jose to score two at 3.25 ( they won 2-1) and "suggested", that LA were good for three (they won 3-0) ! My third pick Philadelphia were a home "dog" ( outsider) and they won 4-0 ! At the moment, I am really putting in the hours, hard work always pays off as we all know and with it comes the profits. Email me for details of how to get full access to my daily notes .
 

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

MLS

These clubs are used to clocking up the air miles, a coast to coast game involves an 8,000 km round trip, but I think several of the teams will be feeling drained tonight, on what for some is a third start in a week and coming directly after a break, when some players will also have been away on international duty, both the break and/or international fixtures are a big disruption to schedules and training.

PHILADELPHIA UNION- SPORTING KANSAS CITY

We discussed Philly last week (see below) and I was very keen to oppose them against DC United and the visitors won 1-0 , but it was close and DC coach Ben Olsen said about Union  “They were good. give them a lot of credit. I thought their energy was good, I thought their soccer was better on the night. ... But at the end of the day it’s about winning games.”

Piotr Nowak was actually fired before the game, this lifted the mood and the players responded for interim coach John Hackworth, who said "If we play that way every week, we’re gonna win a lot of games. So, I’m disappointed but I take a lot of positives out of this game." He also answered a few other questions ....

Will you stick with this lineup?“I would. I need time to think about it. I’m very emotionally charged right now as you can imagine, but I’m going to look at the tape tomorrow. My initial thoughts are that they played the way the Union wants to play. The fans want that. The front office, our ownership, they want that kind of energy. And that was fantastic, so we’ll evaluate it, see how our guys are feeling…next Saturday here I expect you’ll see a lot of the same.

Why didn’t we see Gomez? Was it because he was away at WC qualifying?Partly. He got hurt in Dallas. He never fully recovered from that injury with the national team when he was with Panama. He got released yesterday afternoon; he didn’t play. He has not played a game since Dallas, which is quite a long break, so if the game had presented itself and there was an opportunity…but obviously when you get behind, and we had all the momentum, I didn’t think there was a way they would get down near us. I thought either we were going to give up a foul but they got it, and that was that.
 
What were your emotions like before the game?“What a great day all the way around. The fans were fantastic; the players were awesome beforehand. It was a great night for the Philadelphia Union in a lot of ways. And I was excited. I was confident, relaxed…At this point my job becomes managing the game. We prepared…the players need to know what they’re doing and I thought they did, and they went and tried to do that, and so, it was all good."
 

This is about the most positive I have seen any side after a home defeat and it is clear that with Nowak has also gone a big weight off the team, forward Antoine Hoppenot was denied by the woodwork at a key stage and he said “It’s nice to see a positive offensive showing, we always knew we could do it.  We knew we had the skills and players to be a force on offense.  It doesn’t come to a surprise to us and a great show for the fans to see and hopefully next game we will score two or three.”

Plenty to take out of the game and the new coach has had a free midweek and seven days to fully focus on this game. Kansas were at home last week, went to Seattle in midweek and now all the way over to Philly, that is pretty gruelling, key players Matt Besler and Bobby Convey have been moved up to "Questionable", but a place on the bench is the most either can probably expect and they are likely to be given a little longer recovery time. Nagamura is also a doubt and options look limited in midfield. Think a draw is likely here, the only two h2h meetings have ended all square and that is a result which probably both could accept, but I will take 1.25 units Philadelphia +0.25 ball 1.88 asian line, as I smell an upset home win.

LA GALAXY- VANCOUVER WHITE CAPS

Finally LAG have awoken from a very long slumber and claimed two wins in the last seven days and will be looking to complete the hat-trick tonight, the win at Real Salt Lake was impressive as the hosts came into the game on a long unbeaten run. Galaxy's backline is beat up and continues to look vunerable, but keeper Josh Saunders return coincided with the upturn in results, even so, at present, you have to feel they need two, maybe three goals to ensure victory. They will be boosted in that respect by the seven unanswered goals they put past Vancouver in doing the double over them last season and whilst the visitors are much improved, they are very much a home team and have managed only five road goals all season. Robbie Keane has returned from Euro 2012 action and looks set to return to the line up. Hosts have three from four on the road after this and this is a hugely important game in terms of the rest of their season, they have a good record historically in the third of three matches inside a week and I expect them to follow up against a team who despite their high placing, are still very much one in transition. LA Galaxy -0.75 ball 1.91 + asian line, there is some 3.75 for LA to score 3+ which looks attractive, but not freely available.

REAL SALT LAKE- SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

These two both score and concede a lot of goals, averaging 3.25 between them across their last ten starts and the last two h2h meetings have both produced four goals. San Jose have scored nine in their last five on the road and in each of their last ten in all competitions. I was keen on the "over" here, but Real conceded three to LA in midweek, blowing a two goal lead and might be short on confidence after that, which was a bit of a shock to the system after six matches unbeaten in the league, but they also conceded three recently at home to lower league opposition in the cup. Earthquakes have had several huge boosts this week with the return of goalkeeper Jon Busch from suspension, the signing of former Columbus and D.C. United right back Jed Zayner and return from long term injuries of defender Victor Bernardez and midfielder Shea Salinas, they kept four cleansheets in a row with Bernadez in the team and allowed over 1.6 per game in his absence. Let's try two bets..... 1.25 units San Jose +0.5 ball 2.04 asian line and if it is available to you 0.75 units @ 3.25 for SJE to score two or more 3.0 + is good, if not, then you can upgrade the straight asian bet a little.

Good Luck

PHILADELPHIA UNION- DC UNITED

Hosts are up against it here, they have not won in five MLS starts and have conceded five in their last two home starts, against teams with arguably a lesser potent attack than United, who are the league's top scorers and out for a little revenge after Union beat them in a US Cup match just ten days ago ( 2-1 after extra time in Maryland). That was an ill tempered affair, which saw the red cards fly , Ben Olsen the DC coach rounded on his players after that, for what he described as an unacceptable performance. Olsen was probably the greatest player in the club's history and the current crop will be embarrassed that he was so angered by that showing. That have won their last three league starts and scored 20 goals in their last eight starts.They have defender Robbie Russell back tonight and should have their trio of strikers Chris Pontius, Maicon Santos and Dwayne De Rosario with 17 goals between them, all back in the line up. Three points will ensure they stay top of the Eastern Division.

This is a fixture that usually produces a lot of goals. With the last four MLS meetings all seeing at least four, but it is hard to see Union contributing too many this evening. For a start, they have been pretty toothless all season, scoring just eight and tonight they miss their suspended top scoring striker Lionard Pajoy. They have brought in Jorge Perlaza from Portland, but it cwas at the cost of another and perhaps more promising forward and the Colombian's strike rate of six goals in 44 starts is not going to strike fear into too many DC defenders. This is just the latest in some very strange decisions by Union coach Petr Nowak, who for some unknown reason got rid of Sebastien Le Toux, captain Danny Califf, and now Danny Mwanga, he is said to be looking to move overseas and obviously wants to sell the crown jewels before he goes ! The rats are leaving a sinking ship, two teams heading in different directions and the better one has a little revenge on it's mind. 1.5 units DC United level ball 1.98 asian line.

UPDATE ....

OK, the second email has just been sent, 15 minutes late, sorry about that, my typing skills let me down again ! Three match previews and four selections including one at odds of 3.25 that I am hugely keen on, please check your inbox asap.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ....

SATURDAY JUNE 23rd

Only football today, spread across two emails, in this, just a quick look at the Euro 2012 match and some info about the late morning J-League fixtures. The second email is far more interesting, it will contain a more detailed look at tonight's MLS games and at least two selections (still considering a third ) and some strong information.

Sunday looks especially promising, I will be taking a look at the Wimbledon outright markets, the final round of the PGA Tour event, England-Italy and the overnight fixtures from North/ South America, where if the odds hold up, I am extremely keen on one match up in particular.

EURO 2012 : SPAIN - FRANCE

Spain have been a bit of a disappointment for me at these Championships, they have been slow and a little unimaginative so far and really struggled to break down Italy and Croatia, you do not have to worry too much about width from the Spanish, so a disciplined, two banks of four, with play very compacted has so far proved enough to frustrate them and they do look vunerable on the break. Of course you do not see too much of the ball against them, but you know this going into the game, the introduction of Navas, along with Croatia's need to look for a goal changed the last group game, the Sevilla wide man gave them far more options, but Vicente del Bosque ( yes, that's him in the photo)  is not one for changes and I suspect we will again see two holding players which they do not need, lots of pointless passes, a very slow tempo and a whole host of talented players warming the bench. Fernando Llorente must be wondering what he has to do to get a least a little game time, neither he nor Juan Mata have had one minute on the pitch, they must be jealous of Negredo who has exactly that... one minute and Cazorla and Martinez are two others with very limited playing time.

I am not sure that France can put in the kind of disciplined performance we saw from either Italy or Croatia, they don't really have the mentality for that, at least not for 90 minutes, but they seem sure to make consessions by bringing in another defensive midfielder and they certainly pose more of an attacking threat than either of those two tams. It appears that Spain are worried about Franck Ribery especially and Alvaro Arbeloa looks a really good match up for the Frenchman, who should have plenty of joy cutting inside, providing he sees enough of the ball. We have seen little from Karim Benzema so far, but he also matches up pretty well against Gerard Pique and Sergio Ramos ( whom he knows very well) I expect those three will be seeing plenty of each other this evening. Much has been made of the bust up in the French dressing room after the dismal showing against Sweden, but little about the ongoing conflict between several in the Spanish camp, Pique and Ramos have been "going at it" for sure and there is always some conflict between the Real and Barce camps, a situtation which dictates much of del Bosque's team selections. I think France will score ( France goals -0.75 2.03 in asia) and am quite keen on this match going into extra time, although just one in six draws at the knockout stage of the last three major championships puts me off backing the straight draw. I also get the feeling this might be Benzema's night, but let's keep things simple.... France +0.5 ball 2.14 asian line is my pick for very minimal stakes.

J-LEAGUE

Nagoya Grampus- Jubilo Iwata :

Hosts have a very good record in this fixture 5-3-0 in last eight h2h meetings and could be meeting Iwata at just the right time.

The visitors are without two big talents in midfield and much of their creative threat, Korean Baek Sung Dong is injured, in the last six matches he has started, he has two goals and six assists, his team had scored 19 goals in total and were unbeaten in four, before losing 3-1 at home to Kobe last time out, after he was stretchered off. Hiroki Yamada his fellow midfielder is suspended and he has six goals and four assists in 14 starts. Two huge losses. Jubilo have alreday conceded 14 road goals in seven starts and with their "we will score more goals than you" policy, look up against it today. Hosts have to win this if they are to get into contention at the right end of the table. Opening morning line saw Nagoya at 2.03 they have drifted to circa 2.20, which is a bit of a concern. No bet for me, but I do think that Jubilo will struggle to continue their free scoring ways.

REST OF THE EMAIL IS RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

Good Luck.

Currently, by taking out a subscription to the email service, you can get all the remaining June and July daily notes for free, for details...... contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY .....

There are still 40 days worth of free emails up for grabs.... contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY JUNE 20th( written 09.00)
England won , Zlatan landed our top goalscorer bet ( see below) and the only thing wrong in the email yesterday was that I didn't put Tsvetana Pironkova up as an official selection. Pretty sure that we will be betting at the Aegon International tomorrow, but I am going to leave the tennis for today.

I hope that some of you took the big odds on ........NOTES RESTRICTED .........

................................................................................................... at such huge odds it is a very exciting bet and I do not speak in those terms very often.I do have some other news about their plans, but let's wait until ..... NOTES RESTRICTED

We are down to eight teams in Euro 2012 and they all get a day off from the action today, but we have plenty of other games to interest us and I am going to bet a couple of them.

MLS: HOUSTON DYNAMO - TORONTO FC

We discussed Houston on Saturday, when I wrore ....

This is the big "Texas" derby and the hosts have had the better of meetings in recent years, with a 5-3-1 record in Houston and they currently hold the 19th-century Civil War replica cannon ( !), that these two clubs play for every season, just one scheduled meeting this season, so the cannon is on the line tonight ! This will be the first meeting between the clubs in Houston's brand new home, the BBVA Compass Stadium, they have taken seven points and kept two cleansheets from their three games in the Arena, all matches which like tonight, have been played in front of sell out crowds. Also, the stadium and especially pitch have been laid out to give the hosts every advantage, just us you would expect and hope. The grass is a particular variety of bermuda that they favour and the pitch is very small and a couple of teams have already complained about this, officially it is around 8% smaller than Dallas' home field, but many suspect it is even more compact and the crowd are very much on top of the playing surface making it appear even smaller and more intimidating. Their reasons for this and they have been quite open is that, their most valuable asset Brad Davis who was runner up in the MLS MVP voting last season, to Dwayne De Rosario btw ( see above), is a dead ball specialist, producing fantastic deliveries from corners and free kicks, the reduced field means that he can deliver more of these and to an even greater degree of accuracy.

Dallas are a little beat up David Ferreira,  Bobby Warshaw , Ugo Ihemelu and Brek Shea (three goals) are all out, Ricardo Villar ( two goals) and top scorer Blas Pérez are doubts, Perez played twice for Panama last week and is said to be 50-50 at best, reading between the lines, I am not sure his heart is quite in this one. Anyway, they are short of options in central defence and midfield and could be devoid of most of their goal threat. They might have to go with Sealy and Luna up front, that potent pair have not scored once this season and only twice in 55 MLS outings between both of them !

They beat Dallas 2-1, remain healthy, with just a couple of fringe players out , stay on home soil and that "small" pitch to face woeful Toronto this evening, the visitors flew into Houston directly from Kansas where they lost 2-0 and it looks like most of them headed out on the town, three got into a brawl at a nightclub and were arrested, if that was not humiliating enough, one tried to run away and was easliy chased down by the local police ! Not too much intelligence, or speed shown there, if the Houston PD can catch him, other MLS players should have no problems !

Those three ( Luis Silva, Nick Soolsma and Miguel Aceva) are out pending the investigation and with four already injured/ very doubtful, Toronto, who have lost ten of their eleven starts, conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game on the road and lurch from one crisis to another have very few options tonight, especially for a second tough road game inside four days. Home win. 1.5 units Houston Dynamo -1 ball 1.95 asian line.

The other MLS games tonight do not overly inspire me, but the weekend games do and I always like the third of these three games in a week fixtures, with some weak squads in the MLS.

COPA LIBERTADORES: CORINTHIANS- SANTOS

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Good Luck.

EURO 2012 : TOP SWEDISH GOALSCORER

Erik Hamren promised a more attacking and creative style when he took over as coach and we have seem glimpses of that and they certainly look to have more goals in them, at both ends of the pitch. Eventually Zlatan too bought into the concept and announced a return from his self imposed exile from international football in 2010. Hamren promised him the captaincy, freedom and open football. They played a kind of 4-2-3-1 through qualifying with Zlatan upfront, but have recently gone more 4-4-2.

The only real swedish superstar didn't play in the 3-2 win over Netherlands and all the talk about whether Sweden are a better team with or without him resurfaced. This year they have played more with Ibrahimovic in the playmaker role and with Elmander or Toivonen in the more advanced position. This hasn't reduced Zlatan's goal threat, he has scored in the last three matches and has more time on the ball and what is certain, is that he is coming into a major championship with no health issues for the first time in ages and coming off a huge season with 28 goals in 32 Serie A starts. He scored twice in both the 2008 and 2004 finals when he shared striking duties with Henrik Larsson, he looked incredibly sharp in the recent game with Iceland, albeit against weak opposition, but really on top of and enjoying his game, I expect him to have a good ,potentially great, tournament and will be hugely surprised if he doesn't end as top Swedish goalscorer and am delighted to see prices above 3.0 for this. I make him a solid bet. 1.5 units Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top Swedish goalscorer 3.50 + .... there is a little 4.0 around.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

TUESDAY ....

Below are part of my daily notes, sent to subscribers this morning, no official tennis bet today, but I did discuss one match, just one, Pironkova won in straight sets, beating the world number 3 for the loss of only six games. Read the notes, if you were looking for a bet today whilst waiting for Euro 2012, it was surely obvious that odds of 5.50 were way too big. 

I did put up one official bet for tonight in that email and then sent an update mid morning with a bet at 50-1 + (there was some 66-1 around), that looks to offer huge value and which I urged subscribers to back. This is a solid bet, with a very realistic chance of winning.

Seriously, this service is incredible value for a couple of euros per day and there are still over 40 days worth of free emails ( all of June and July) available to anyone taking out a subscription.

 

TUESDAY JUNE 19th

We have a really interesting week ahead with all four Euro 2012 quarter finals, a round of Irish Premier League fixtures, two full rounds of MLS matches , which have been good to us in recent weeks and some South American games, where I have two strong ideas, one in midweek and the other at the weekend. In addition, there is quite a bit of grass court tennis around this week and on Sunday, I will be taking a look at some of the outright markets at Wimbledon, we will also be following, as usual the PGA Tour event. So, something for everyone !

I am going down to Eastbourne to watch the AEGON International (WTA) tennis today, so am hopeful of picking up some info to help us in the next couple of days and/or at Wimbledon, I am very drawn to the Agnieszka Radwanska- Tsvetana Pironkova match today, we were on Pironkova at big odds to beat Venus Williams at Wimbledon last year and she did so for the loss of only five games and then also took the eventual champion Petra Kvitova to three sets and 30 games in the quarter finals. She showed some decent form at Roland Garros beating Yaninia Wickmayer and then pushing Francesca Schiavone all the way and to be honest, I was very surprised by the circa 5.50 for the Bulgarian to win today. However, Radwanska is a player I expect to go really well in the next week or two and she holds a 8-1 h2h record over her opponent, including two wins at the All England Club, the first was really close, the second very comfortable, so I am happy to pass and just watch today, but I cannot agree with the massive odds for the outsider, as I think first time out for both on grass, 3.75 or similar would be closer to the real odds, anyway, no bet for me, but if you wanted to waste a few euros on Pironkova, I would not attempt to stop you !

Today, sees the conclusion of the group matches at Euro 2012 and we will be down to eight after today, I do expect England and France to come through Group D and they would both like to win the section and avoid a semi final with Spain, Italy certainly look the more beatable of the two potential opponents and for the English especially, they would welcome the prospect of a potential semi-final with Germany and an opportunity to exorcise those Bloemfontein demons.  REST OF THE EMAIL IS RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

URGENT....

Please check your inbox immediately, I have just seen something very interesting and found a huge value 50-1 + selection, that I urge you all to back.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY .......

SUNDAY JUNE 17th

The Russia- Greece game was hugely disappointing, if the Russians had come out , shown us 70% of what they had on Matchday 1 and won the group, we would have been in an incredible position on all our outright markets. After that opening performance, it is hard to believe they are on their way home, but Dick Advocaat made some very poor choices across all three games IMO and the only consolation is that if they had found an equaliser last night, they would not have won a quarter final against anyone from Group B playing has they have for the last 135 minutes.

Luckily the day at least ending on a high note with both MLS selections winning ( see below) and it is those results I will try to focus on coming into a very interesting Sunday.

I am betting three football games today, one each from Euro 2012, the MLS and Brazil, with two strong bets, including my biggest individual match bet so far of the championship, available at odds of up to 2.375

I also have some thoughts for the US Open golf, but they are kind of from the school of the blindingly obvious variety.

EURO 2012:

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

MLS : CHICAGO FIRE - NEW YORK RED BULLS

PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

SERIE A: PONTE PRETA - CORINTHIANS

 

Contact : gowi8btinternet.com  

 

Hosts have forward Roger back from suspension, which will help as they still have a handful of long term injuries, they have yet to win this season, but recent performances in draws against Atletico-GO, Flamengo and Figueirens have indicated that that first win is just around the corner and they are not going to get a better chance for a while than tonight, when a distracted Corinthians come calling, especially with tough road trips to highflying Botafogo and leaders Vasco up next. The home coach says he is not worried, infact he is encouraged by the quality shown recently, feeling that defensively they look solid and he expects the goals to follow. Corinthians only have one point this season and that is because at present, they are only interested in their Copa Libertadores campaign. That is the only major title missing from their CV and this is their big chance to claim it, they have effectively rested all players for league games ahead of Copa fixtures and did the same last week ahead of the semi final first leg with Santos in midweek, which they won 1-0, job half done and now they have taken a B squad to face Ponte, the only exception being Emerson, who is suspended for the Santos return game. This is a huge game for the hosts, who have won three of the last four h2h meetings and the least important by far of three matches inside seven days for the visitors. 1.5 units Ponte Petra -0.25 ball 2.13 asian line.  Figueirense

FigueirenseFigueirense

US OPEN GOLF :OUTRIGHT

Jim Furyk winner in 2003 and Graeme McDowell champion in 2010 lead the way at -1 and have a two stroke lead over the field and whilst that can disappear in the blink of an eye on any golf course, let alone one as difficult as the Olympic Club, these two know to get this particular job done and will feel very comfortable in each others company having played together for the first two days.

Final round pairings have won nine of the last twelve Opens ( 75%) and 65% of all majors in the last five seasons, this pair can be backed at close to evens and that look value as I made them a combined 60% in my 100% book. These are two grinders, which is a compliment on a course like this and it is very hard to see both slipping up and that is what is problably needed for someone to come out of the pack at say +4 or higher ( which includes Tiger).

Furyk played with Tiger yesterday, beat him by five and looked composed, even after a sluggish start, he has a mighty record on Tour posting ten wins and seven runner up spots, on the 17 occasions he has led or tied after 54 holes.

McDowell admits to being a nervous golfer and he probably slept a little fitfully last night ,but he has made big improvements in his mental approach, being a major winner has helped of course. He said he was concerned before his round yesterday, but his "team" got him focused and he shot a bogey free back nine, commented afterwards "I was happy that I got myself emotionally in the right place today, probably for the first time this week, I actually enjoyed the round of golf. It was quite nice out there." Infact, he is -6 for the last six holes this week, no other pro golfer in the top 13 of the field is better than -1, so he could have a huge advantage at the business end of this event. So, keep a close eye on him in the "in play" markets over the closing holes.

The Ulsterman is 3.90 and Furyk 4.10 on the exchanges, which equates to 2.0 for the pair combined and that is my 1.5 unit selection.

Good Luck.
 
Contact : gowi8btinternet.com 

MLS :

PHILADELPHIA UNION- DC UNITED

Hosts are up against it here, they have not won in five MLS starts and have conceded five in their last two home starts, against teams with arguably a lesser potent attack than United, who are the league's top scorers and out for a little revenge after Union beat them in a US Cup match just ten days ago ( 2-1 after extra time in Maryland). That was an ill tempered affair, which saw the red cards fly , Ben Olsen the DC coach rounded on his players after that, for what he described as an unacceptable performance. Olsen was probably the greatest player in the club's history and the current crop will be embarrassed that he was so angered by that showing. That have won their last three league starts and scored 20 goals in their last eight starts.They have defender Robbie Russell back tonight and should have their trio of strikers Chris Pontius, Maicon Santos and Dwayne De Rosario with 17 goals between them, all back in the line up. Three points will ensure they stay top of the Eastern Division.

This is a fixture that usually produces a lot of goals. With the last four MLS meetings all seeing at least four, but it is hard to see Union contributing too many this evening. For a start, they have been pretty toothless all season, scoring just eight and tonight they miss their suspended top scoring striker Lionard Pajoy. They have brought in Jorge Perlaza from Portland, but it cwas at the cost of another and perhaps more promising forward and the Colombian's strike rate of six goals in 44 starts is not going to strike fear into too many DC defenders. This is just the latest in some very strange decisions by Union coach Petr Nowak, who for some unknown reason got rid of Sebastien Le Toux, captain Danny Califf, and now Danny Mwanga, he is said to be looking to move overseas and obviously wants to sell the crown jewels before he goes ! The rats are leaving a sinking ship, two teams heading in different directions and the better one has a little revenge on it's mind. 1.5 units DC United level ball 1.98 asian line.

HOUSTON DYNAMO - FC DALLAS

This is the big "Texas" derby and the hosts have had the better of meetings in recent years, with a 5-3-1 record in Houston and they currently hold the 19th-century Civil War replica cannon ( !), that these two clubs play for every season, just one scheduled meeting this season, so the cannon is on the line tonight ! This will be the first meeting between the clubs in Houston's brand new home, the BBVA Compass Stadium, they have taken seven points and kept two cleansheets from their three games in the Arena, all matches which like tonight, have been played in front of sell out crowds. Also, the stadium and especially pitch have been laid out to give the hosts every advantage, just us you would expect and hope. The grass is a particular variety of bermuda that they favour and the pitch is very small and a couple of teams have already complained about this, officially it is around 8% smaller than Dallas' home field, but many suspect it is even more compact and the crowd are very much on top of the playing surface making it appear even smaller and more intimidating. Their reasons for this and they have been quite open is that, their most valuable asset Brad Davis who was runner up in the MLS MVP voting last season, to Dwayne De Rosario btw ( see above), is a dead ball specialist, producing fantastic deliveries from corners and free kicks, the reduced field means that he can deliver more of these and to an even greater degree of accuracy.

Dallas are a little beat up David Ferreira,  Bobby Warshaw , Ugo Ihemelu and Brek Shea (three goals) are all out, Ricardo Villar ( two goals) and top scorer Blas Pérez are doubts, Perez played twice for Panama last week and is said to be 50-50 at best, reading between the lines, I am not sure his heart is quite in this one. Anyway, they are short of options in central defence and midfield and could be devoid of most of their goal threat. They might have to go with Sealy and Luna up front, that potent pair have not scored once this season and only twice in 55 MLS outings between both of them ! 1.25 units Houston Dynamo -0.5 ball 1.91 asian line.

Contact : gowi8btinternet.com

YOUNG ROY .....

There is a story doing the rounds that Roy Hodgson was born as a 40 yo man, as no one could find a  photograph of him looking any younger.

But here is 29 yo Roy winning the first of seven Allsvenskan titles in 1976. The first two of those came with Halmstad ( bet they played 4-4-2), which, at the time was a little like winning the EPL with Wigan .

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE ......

FRIDAY JUNE 15th

I cannot comment too much on the Italy- Croatia game as I only saw the last twenty minutes and both appeared to settle for the point after the equaliser, but I will watch the first 70 minutes later today. The Irish again conceded early and it was match over from that stage, in a complete mismatch.

I didn't see the start of the opening game, as I was at Queens Club to watch some play from the Aegon Championships, I left before the rain came, but conditions all day were tough, very windy, which I am told didn't really come across on television. I was praying that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was going to come through, as he was really struggling to judge the wind and I wanted to oppose him today, but Ivan Dodig beat him in three close sets and the Croatian, who was clearly in no rush to get off court and watch his country play, handled the conditions much better and now meets Sam Querrey, who won this event in 2010. The American clearly likes it at Queens Club, which suits his big serve, but he has not played much on the surface since, missing much of 2011 after surgery, he had a similarly close battle with Julien Benneteau yesterday. Exchange odds are around 1.45-3.15 in favour of the US player and whilst I would opt for Querrey if forced to choose, I do believe it will be close and that Dodig has a chance, in conditions which are going to be very similar, there is a strong chance of rain and again these swirling winds of around 30km are forecast around the middle of the day. I only saw a few games from Querrey's match, but Dodig appeared to handle the weather better yesterday.

The pair have met once before at Wimbledon in 2010, Querrey came into the game as Queens Club champion, so was clearly near the top of his game and won 6-2 5-7 6-3 7-6, the fourth set tie break went to 22 points and so Dodig, who was performing at a much lower level then, came very close to taking the match into a fifth set. The Croatian player stepped up a level after that, forced his way into the top 100 and last year made the final of a grass court event in s'Hertogenbosch, I looked into that and the tournament was played in very similar conditions with lots of delays for rain. I can understand why these conditions suit him, he is hugely focused and hungry and plays every point as though it is his last. He has a big serve, at Wimbledon he was right up there with Querrey's which is considered one of the biggest on tour and there will be plenty of free points for both today. but he can mix it up more than the US player, on serve I mean and he was prepared to adjust to the conditions yesterday, as opposed to Querrey looking to play through them. I like the "over" 23 games @ 2.0 with Pinnacle Sports....there is some over 22.5 games at 1.80 with two or three bookmakers which is a very similar quote. Dodig is a fighter, he has come up through the ranks and will scrap for every point today, example of those battling qualities is that he beat Rafael Nadal, 1–6, 7–6, 7–6 after recovering from 1–6, 1–3, a situation when most would have given up . He sees a big serve well, won a five setter over Ivo Karlovic and was the only player to take a set off Novak Djokovic at last year's Australian Open.

EURO 2012

ENGLAND - SWEDEN

No real holding player for Sweden in the opener and with the suspect defence that we discussed beforehand, they were always going to struggle to keep a cleansheet, this gave Ukraine quite long spells of possession, they broke quickly through Yevhen Konoplyanaka on the left and Andriy Yarmolenko on the opposite flank and the movement of Andriy Voronin and intellegence of Andriy Shevchenko, was the difference between the two teams. Shevchenko got all the plaudits, but Voronin's performance was no less valuable. Despite all this,Sweden were unlucky to lose IMO and Zlatan Ibrahimovic looked what he is, the real class act on show, he could have scored three, should have had two and his clever play dragged Tymoshchuk ( charged with marking Zlatan) all over the pitch, into positions he didn't know existed. Both Ukraine goals came from crosses.....REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

 

FRANCE- UKRAINE

We have already discussed how the Ukraine goals came against Sweden and having seen England also score from a header, I doubt their tactics will change too much. I suspect they will be looking for a point, probably happy to sit back, let France dominate possession and try and break, get those balls into the box and attempt to steal a goal. France’s midfield was good at retaining possession, but took few chances against England, but they were content with a draw and to simple see out the game and the frightening conditions ,especially with two games coming up in quick succession. What they missed was a .... REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED

US OPEN GOLF

Only six of the 156 man field broke par yesterday and only one, leader Michael Thompson ( who he ?), by more than a single stroke, I hope he enjoys his moment in the limelight, as it will not last long !

The top 60 plus ties and any golfer within ten strokes of the lead will make the cut, at present that would be 108 golfers ( !), which would be a logistical nightmare and could potentially be even worse, as Thompson will surely come back to the field.

However, we have some very big names in danger of missing the cut, which is currently set at +6 , including Rory McIlroy ( defending champion) and Zach Johnson at +7, Bubba Watson and Peter Hanson +8 and Luke Donald +9, right on the cusp at +6 are Lucas Glover ( winner in 2009), Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott.

All of these will want to play the weekend and each will feel a little embarrassed by their opening rounds, so expect them all to be very focused today. Also, whilst +7 sounds and indeed is terrible, it is "only" seven strokes behind 7th place and any under par round today, should get you back into, if not exactly contention, then in position to make a run over the weekend.

Some players have a history of doing this, Luke Glover opened with a 76 last year and then shot 69 in Round 2 and in his championship year of 2009, shot 64 on Friday.

The two I would like to discuss are ....... REST OF THE EMAIL IS RESTRICTED

 

Good Luck.

 

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

 

Above is a censored copy of today's notes, the full edition runs to some 1,800 + words and costs less than a cup of coffee, if you found something of interest in the edited previews above, you would probably benefit greatly from reading the full notes on a daily basis. If you sign up, the June and July copies are free, still some 45 + copies, so delaying your decision is just costing you money.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

THURSDAY ....

Two from two again yesterday on the email service and solid news ( no bet) about a third . There are still 47 days worth of free emails up for grabs and some strong selections ( non Euro 2012) planed for the weekend.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY'S NOTES .....

WEDNESDAY JUNE 13th

Let's start today with a look ahead to the rest of the week, obviously main focus is Euro 2012 , where we have two matches each day , we also have Copa Libertadores fixtures and a full round of MLS fixtures at the weekend, where I have a couple of very solid looking selections and I am quite excited about those !

On the PGA Tour, the US Open starts tomorrow and that will be big over the weekend, but I will be letting the first day pass and holding off on any outright bets for the time being. The tournament is being held at the Olympic Club in San Francisco, which has not hosted a tour event of any kind for 14 years and I understand that the rough is not particularly severe, which is unusual for an Open, anyway, I want to see how the course plays over day one and I still expect it to be a very tough test, that should be fun ! Since 1998 the greens have been converted from Poa Annua to Bentgrass and a LOT of trees have been removed from the course and wind might play more of a role this time round. I might well leave the tennis alone this week, the transition from clay to grass is always difficult, but that can also be good for us ,but the weather has been very uncertain, although  it is dry and sunny in the South East today for the first time in a week or more, so I might change my mind about that, going to watch a lot of the action from there today ( Queens Club).

 

EURO 2012 :

PORTUGAL - DENMARK

Portugal had a very defensive mindset for the first hour or so against Germany, they were set up 4-3-3, but very happy to play a containing game and the only attacking threat came from Nani and Ronaldo, with little help from anyone else. To be honest, they defended well and must have felt that the game was there to be won, as they had switched to a 4-2-3-1 before the Germans scored, but it was this transition that ultimately cost them. They played well on the front foot for the last 20 minutes and there was plenty for them to take out of the game, just not the result !

Denmark lost the attempts on goal count 27-5 to Netherlands, but won 1-0, they defended manfully, but very deep for the last quarter of the game. They played a rigid 4-2-3-1, with Nicklas Bendtner a lonely figure up front for much of the time, he is just about the most unlikely Arsene Wenger signing I have ever seen ( !), not the Arsenal type at all, but I digress. The two holding players in front of the back four allowed the Dutch a huge amount of time and space on the ball wide and if they adopt a similar approach tonight, Nani and Ronaldo will be licking their lips in anticipation and surely, they will not be as wasteful as the Dutch frontmen.

The two played in the same qualification group, Denmark came out on top, courtesy of winning the final match in Copenhagen 2-1, the Portugese won 3-1 in Porto and had 30 attempts on goal across the two games, which might not seem a lot looking at Denmark's opener, but they are big numbers between two fairly closely match opponents at this level. The two Portugese wide men scored all four goals and I really expect them to fire their side to victory tonight, we can also expect the Danes to tire a litttle late in this one, they spent a lot of time without the ball in the first game and energy levels must have been low afterwards

REST OF THE PREVIEW AND EMAIL IS RESTRICTED

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com