Wimbledon Tennis betting preview : Yaroslava Shvedova- Petra Kvitova

I think we will see a long match here, Yaroslava Shvedova did us a big favour at last year's tournament when

she took Serena Williams to a deciding set . She matched the US superstar pretty much blow for blow on serve, in terms of pace, percentage and points won and with the courts again quicker today, with hot sunny weather forecast she will get plenty of easy points today. Having lost a number of ranking points she earned at Roland Garros in 2012, she will be very keen to try and defend her 4th round run last year here and this is a huge match in terms of her career. Petra Kvitova looked imperious in winning here in 2011 and had make the semis the year previously and quarters last year, but looks way off that level this year. She looked lost at times in defeat against Yanina Wickmayer at Eastbourne, a match she should have won easily and opened with a three set battle against Vesna Dolonc here in Round 1, with her opponent having twice as many break points as the former champion. Hard to see this not being very close and lengthy, Kvitova has won long three set battles here against almost every solid grass court or wily campaigner she has met ( Zheng, Kanepi, Schiavone, Pironkova and Azarenka), only losing to Serena Williams. I see this very similar......1.25 units "over" 22 games 1.95 Pinnacle Sports

Good Luck. 

What have you missed ?

If you are still checking out this blog for free to view betting previews, you should really be going to the .

clubgowi website

Since last posting here on the blog, I have put up detailed match/event previews on the website covering .....

UEFA European U21 Championship: Italy-Netherlands ... Italy won 1-0

The US Open golf final round .... Justin Rose won at odds of 10.0

2014 World Cup qualifier : Jordan-Oman .... which was a loser

MLS: Columbus Crew-Chicago Fire preview .... Fire won 2-1

Today I have just posted a couple of snippets ( no full previews) from today's newsletter, which was sent to subscribers at 10.30 UK time this morning. There are an average of ten newsletters sent out each week carrying a total of around 25 previews. Subscription details can be found on this page of the clubgowi website.

I have taken a while to get going with the MLS matches this season, which is unusual, but we were 3 from 4 at the weekend and very unlucky not to register a cleansweep. Long term readers will remember how well we did last year and if not, here is a reminder.

It feels like we are about to go on a similar "tear up", so, if you are not prepared to take the plunge to sign up as a subscriber, at least keep your eyes open for any FTV content, about 15% of our output is available as free to view.

Good Luck.

Big Wednesday update .....

My wife and youngest daughter are obsessed with surfing, I am happy to sit in the deckchair cinema

watching surfing movies with a beer in hand, but occasionally roll out the Big Wednesday poster when it seems appropriate. Which means when we have a big betting Wednesday planned, rather than my hitting the surf !

I have six previews scheduled for today, have already sent two to subscribers and you can read one of those in the post below, the others four ( all football) will form the follow up newsletter today, which is due to be released at 15.00 UK time.

There is a hugely busy 9-10 days in prospect, with some 30-35 previews planned for this period, so keep your eyes open as one or two might find their way onto the blog, clubgowi website ( which is where you are most likely to find free to view content), or our social media pages. Twitter Facebook.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

Queens Club Tennis preview : Andy Murray-Nicolas Mahut

Queens Club Tennis : Andy Murray-Nicolas Mahut

These two are ranked #2 and #224 respectively in the world, but there is nothing like that between them on grass and Mahut who is very much in the twilight of his career at 31 yo and who has had a dismal year, with six first round defeats in seven tournaments before arriving in London, will be looking for a decent run on one of the grass court events. He is a former finalist here and in his career has six times won five grass court matches in tournaments, three times here at Queens, on what must be his favourite playing surface in tennis. The Frenchman won his opener 2 & 3 over US player Rhyne Williams and in the process bombed down 14 aces, which was as many as we saw from anyone in two sets in Round 1 and there were some really big serves in action, Sam Groth
(with the fastest serve ever to his name @ 263 kph !!!), averaged about the same. So, Mahut is "up there", the win will have given him confidence, which he will need of course, so will his win over Murray in their only previo us meeting on the surface, which came here last year at the same stage 6-3, 6-7, 7-6, as good a returner as Murray is, Mahut still had 13 aces and there will be some easy points for him again today.

Mahut also had a run to the doubles final at Roland Garros, where he and Michael Llodra as an unseeded pairing, lost in a third set tie break to the #1 ranked Bryan brothers. That was fanatstic for both, but just the proof Mahut needed that he can still compete at the top level. Murray has not played since he retired from the Rome Open four weeks ago and although a three time former winner here, he has as many early round defeats and does tend to struggle early with the transition to grass. Of course, the fact that he missed Roland Garros will probably help in that respect, but it is impossible to know if he is 100%. He might certainly want to ease himself in and he will definitely not be taking any chances with Wimbledon so close. The Frenchman is 7.60 to win today, which is much bigger than last year, when Murray arrived from the RG semis, he is no forlorn hope at that tempting price, but I prefer .....

1.25 units Nicolas Mahut +4.5 games 1.98 Pinnacle Sports.

0.75 units Nicolas Mahut +1.5 sets 2.95 Pinnacle Sports.
You can get similar odds to take a set by backing both Mahut to win at circa 7.6 and Murray 2-1 in sets @ 4.50-5.0 .

Good Luck.

GOWI SNIPPETS ....

There is a preview for tonight's football posted on the clubgowi website.

Everyone in the clubgowi database was sent two free previews on Wednesday, which both won at odds of 2.05 and 2.30 +.

All of June's clubgowi newletters, circa 40 in total , containing 100 + match/event previews are available for free, email gowi8@btinternet.com for details.

The clubgowi results page on the website will be updated to May 31st tomorrow.

Today's football ...

Sevilla will be without central defender Federico Fazio (26 apps -3 goals -0 assists ..... 0-1-6 in the last 7 he has missed !) and José Antonio Reyes (26-4-8).

Valencia arrive without influential midfielder Tino Costa (31-1-6), fringe striker Nelson Valdez (28-6-0 .....but only an average of 28 minutes per game) and versatile left sided Andres Guardado (32-1-3)

Columbus Crew will be without hard working Eddie Gaven (10-0-3) on the right flank and striker Dominic Oduro (12-6-0) is a doubt, but  Jairo Arrieta (9-1-3) who was with the Costa Rica national team in midweek returns, as does Gláuber (12-0-1) who missed the match in the Big Apple due to suspension.

Brazil Serie A ... I think a third match against a strong opponent in less than a week will catch up with them today, especially with home coach xxxxxx xxxx indicating he will go with the same starting line up as for Wednesday. He also  spoke yesterday about the fact that it had not been possible to have a proper training session before the weekend and work on what he clearly knew was wrong.

Notes talen from today's clubgowi newsletter, four previews today from a service which previous 25 events per week/ 52 weeks of the year .

Good Luck. 

Saturday .....so far, so good !

I am VERY excited about the Summer, best consecutive months for GOWI in each of

the last three years have been June/July and after this evening, our three main summer league in J-League/ MLS and Campeonato Brasileiro Série A will all be up and running. Long term readers will know how well we have done with these and we were two from two on J-League this morning (see below) with Omiya Ardija winning 3-0 and Yokohama F.Marinos 1-0.  I have put up Omiya three times this season, they have won each time, opposed Marinos twice and backed them today, again getting all three correct. You can switch off, take things easy for next season, clubgowi will be looking to build our bankroll through the next couple of months and also try to pick out some early summer gems like this.

 

Previews below were sent to clubgowi subscribers at 14.55 UK time Friday, 16 hours before kick off.

 

Ventforet Kofu- Omiya Ardija

We have spoken a couple of times about both of these teams already this season, Ventforet did us a favour against Jubilo Iwata, but disappointed against Shimizu S-Pulse and have since lost heavily at Hiroshima, conceding seven goals across the two matches. They are short of options with a number of players carrying knocks and Brazilian striker Hugo ( 12-5-0) suddenly looks out of sorts and the jury is still out on whether he and Paraguayan forward Jose Ortigoza, who has finally forced his way into the starting line up, can play together, they may need time. 

Omiya served us very well over the holiday weekend fixtures at the begining of the month ...

Omiya did us a big favour on Friday with a very comfortable 2-0 win at Oita Trinita, ahead of which I wrote ... 

At the start of this season, I produced a league table, showing points won not only last season, but in the second half of the campaign and also over the last ten starts. One of the stand out teams was Omiya Ardija, who had collected 20 of their 44 points over the last ten matches, a total only equalled by champions Sanfreece Hiroshima. They have continued in the same vein and after eight rounds are 6-2-0 and top of the table, they have not lost since August 25th, that's 19 starts and an 11-8-0 record, which equates to over 73 points over 34 games and would have seen them win last season's J-League by 9 points plus. So, they have to be seen as worthy leaders.

A 4-0 win at Kashiwa Reysol last week took Omiya top and they will be looking to consolidate their position against newly promoted Oita, who are bottom of the table and 0-3-5, they came up through the playoffs and were the lowest ranked team heading in, collecting 15 points less than the champions. Allowing for changes in the league structure, 3 of the last 4 teams to be promoted with such a low total have been immediately relegated. They might feel hard done by not to have broken their duck in a 0-0 draw with Cerezo Osaka last week, after hitting the woodwork twice through Yasuhito Morishima and Takuya Marutani, but they were largely outplayed and looked especially vunerable on the right flank, something which has been a problem previously. They remain without Yuri Kimura in midfield, he had 9 assists last season and they do not have a like for like replacement.

The visitors could hardly be in better or more confident shape, strikers Zlatan Ljubijankic and Milivoje Novakovic whom we discussed a few weeks back, are in perfect sync with six goals between them and are being kept hungry by Hasegawa and Tomiyama two young strikers eager for a look in, so huge competition up front and no injury problems for Omiya.

They are already used to playing on Friday, with the Reysol match played 24 hours before the other fixtures last week and that extra 24 hours will also serve them well with a home match against the defending champions on Monday. I see a huge incentive for Omiya to go into that game and return home as league leaders and even the tough looking handicap is not a concern , given how freely they are scoring. Left winger Cho Young-Cheol started last season on fire and already has two goals and three assists this campaign, he should be looking forward to this, especially if he saw how much joy Yoichiro Kakitani had last week.

That is now 20 matches unbeaten and they continue to be underestimated by the oddsmakers IMO, they have no injury problems and will not lack in motivation against an admittedly better rested opponent. Sanfreece sat out many starters in midweek (AFC CL) and have had an extra couple of days to prepare solely for this and are themselves unbeaten in six in all competitions. Which includes road draws at Nagoya Grampus, Bunyodkor and Pohang Steelers, all commendable results, defensively they look solid, but this is no longer an easy place to come and I feel the most they can hope for is a draw. There is a good chance of a stalemate, Omiya will retain their lead and Sanfreece will not fall any further off the pace with that result, but with the level ball safeguard, I can only lean one way. Omiya have only conceded nine goals in those 20 starts, it is hard to beat a team you cannot score against and they are not top by chance and were as good as anybody in the top flight over the last quarter of 2012 and not just the first of this.

Since winning those two matches, they lost their long unbeaten record (21 matches) in a 2-1 defeat at Vegalta Sendai, the hosts were deserved winners were 2-0 up at the break and coasting, missing good chances to increase their lead to three, before Omiya found a goal from somewhere and almost an equaliser, missing a couple of chances themselves. That would have been unfair on Sendai, but it is a sign of how tough the league leaders now are to beat. They bounced back immediately with a win over Shonan Bellmare last week and whist they did not defeat much, it was a hugely important win for Omiya. It increased their lead at the top to five points and they will be eager to hold on to that ahead of the mid season break. It is been important that their pair of Slovenian strikers ( see above) have continued to contribute, with 10 goals and five assists between them and with no reported problems , both should start. The clubs have already met in the League Cup with Kofu winning 3-1, that meant little in a competition Omiya have shown scant regard for and they only fielded two regular outfield players in that game. The loss at Sendai aside, Omiya have been incredible on the road, winning eight of the other ten (two draws) and keeping seven clean sheets. Given that the hosts suddenly look vunerable defensively and with the visitors so difficult to score against, I can only lean one way. 1.5 units Omiya Ardija -0.25 ball 1.99 asian line/Ibramarket.Sagan Tosu- Yokohama F.Marinos

Hosts had a fine 5th place finish in J-League last year, only missing an AFC Champions league spot by two points, a terrific effort following promotion a year earlier. That is now a distant memory and in the always difficult second season, they sit just one point above the drop zone, having conceded an eye popping 30 goals, it is difficult to win when you are allowing 2.5 per game and the three they conceded at home to basement club Oita Trinita in the cup in midweek, will not have helped their confidence one little bit. There have been a few odd decisions, like taking off a striker who had just scored ( when you are losing) and replacing him with a left back (!) at Urawa last week where they eventually lost 6-2 and i am not sure they know which way to turn at present. I was not entirely complimentary about Dad's Army/ Marinos a few weeks back and we succesfully opposed them twice ....

A fortnight ago I opposed then leaders Marinos, who were 6-0-0 at the time, with a Albirex team I had been happy to take on a week earlier, writing ....

It is not often I take such a firm stance in opposing a team one week and them back then the very next, but I am fairly keen on Albirex getting the handicap start this week. They have not suddenly improved, as this has more to do with the league leading visitors. Not that they have done too much wrong, infact, they have a 100% record so far this season, but two things about that, they are the first team since 2004 to win their first six starts and that puts them under a lot of pressure, also, last week, at home to Frontale, they looked really vunerable for the first time, needing a 90th minute winner to claim the points. Four very key players in this team are not just the wrong side of 30, but at least mid and in two cases late 30's. No injuries has meant little rotation in these areas and whilst that has been good so far, I feel it might come at a cost somewhere down the line (today ?). The backline is largely unchanged through six games and with an average age of almost 33, might start to be increasingly vunerable, on the one occasion they did look to switch things around resting one, they conceded twice and brought him off the bench late in the game.

They lost that 1-0 and drew at home to Ventforet last week, with still no changes to that back four and key striker 37 yo Marquinhos Araujo (7-6-1) who is very much the focus of their attack, is not 100% to start this week. However, of equal/maybe even a bigger concern to me was that after being in control YFM looked to run out of steam and hand the initiative to Kofu and if not the age, the age combined with the lack of rotation, would be a worry for me if I was a Marinos supporter.

Kashima have lost just once in 12 league starts and that came to Omiya ( who's form lines could hardly be better), they have not lost in three ( only once in seven) visits to Yokohama and I do not see that changing this evening.

They have since regrouped and taken four points from their last two league starts and also shoehorned in a pair of confidence boosting cup wins. Their old limbs can rest up after this week over the mid season break and they will not want the Omiya advanatge at the top of the table to increase any further. Marinos had the meanest defence in J-League last season and have only averaged a goal per game conceded over the last 15 months. Meeting an opponent so low on confidence and one who simply cannot keep a cleansheet should be perfect for them. By the way, they have been mixing up that aged backline a bit recently and gave left back Dutra, who will be 40 in August, the night off in midweek. 1.25 units Yokohama F.Marinos -0.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.

Friday .... The wooden spoon

Hard to believe that Brentford are facing (at least) another season of third tier football, they were one of the

two best teams in League 1, of that, I remain 100% convinced , but they had TWO massive chances to get the job done and came up short.

Is it even possible to be 0-7 in the playoffs ! Do we get to permanently keep the wooden spoon ? If so, can we have a parade ?

What cannot be denied is that the club have made massive strides forward, both on and especially off the pitch, the planning application for the new ground is about to be submitted and everything is geared up for Championship football, we just need one more thing in place and that is not a wooden
spoon !

Very exciting weekend of fooball and I am planning to be active on here, the website and social media  over the next few days, so please check out all the clubgowi pages, of course, the only way to get access to all the output, is by subscribing to the daily newsletter.

Good Luck.

Thursday .....

We were four from four yesterday ( see the clubgowi website)  at odds of 2.08-2.20 + and two were available to non-subscribers.

I have a free copy of today's notes available ( only until 16.00 UK time) on request, just send an email to gowi8@btinternet.com  .

Good Luck.

Wednesday update....

Since I last wrote on the blog, I posted a free to view preview on the clubgowi website, which I hope you all

saw, Valencia won that match 4-0.

I have just posted today's newsletter on there in full, there were four previews in total, two were played this morning, but the other two are still "active". Please take a look.

Should any of you wish to have a copy od the daily newsletter delivered to your inbox each morning, click here.

Good Luck.

Tuesday May 7th ..... something you may have missed ......

What a weekend !

A decent profit banked and my beloved Brentford finally booking a place in the League 1 Playoff final . 
Giving themselves another opportunity to clinch a spot in the Championship, something that should not only have been done and dusted ten days ago, but several weeks back.

Needless to say, the Bees couldn't get the job done without causing the maximum amount of anguish and nail biting, but that is their way and I do not doubt that there will be plenty of twists and turns to come at Wembley on May 19th.

However, my main reason for writing today is to try and bring you up to date on anything you might have missed over the last month or two. GOWI is spread across several outlets now and I guess that makes it easier for something to pass you by, so now is the opportunity to correct all that.

You are currently reading the Gambling and Other Wholesome Interests (GOWI) blog, I have been posing here for over seven years, in the olden days, everything was here on Blogger, now apart from a few personal thoughts, it is mainly used to advertise the clubgowi website. Which is where you will be able to view most of the free to view content/ match previews, normally each week around 10% of my output is FTV, the other 90% is kept solely for subscribers to the email service. These are full members of clubgowi and have everything delivered by email to their inbox.

They pay for this quality service, a six months subscription works out at about 17 euros per week, that equates to some ten emails per week, with around 25 full match/event previews and it runs 52 weeks of the year.

You can actually view a fairly recent full week's worth of emails on this link, which is a "sister blog" I use for such things. 

As you will see, all events previewed carry a full write up, usually 300 words plus and often much more.

There is a detailed explanation of how the previews are set out in an article entitled " How Everything Works" which is on the subscription page of the clubgowi website.

The site also includes an informative and extensive results page and whilst I am giving links, we are active on Twitter and you can read about our sponsor on this tab.

We have been hugely successful through the summer months and my/our most profitable consecutive months, in each of the last three years, have been June/July.

The next three months are set to follow suit and I am very excited about how our major summer leagues have already started. In addition, there will be news for the next European football season's right through the summer, last year, in early July, I urged all my subscribers to bet Watford in the Championship each way at 66-1 and for promotion at 14-1, they finished third (odds 17.5) and were within a whisker of automatic promotion. We can still collect on the promotion part if they win the playoffs and remember, we have backed them at 15.0 not the 4.0 they are currently. Just after the season started I also advised a cover bet on Cardiff City to win outright at 13.0, whch they did by eight points with weeks to spare !

Therefore, from only three Championship outright bets, we have the opportunity to win on all three at odds of 13.0 (won), 17.5 (won) and 15.0 ( now 4.0) !

I am already working on next season's "coups" and have been telling subscribers for several months, that I am confident I have two long term "winners" already in the pipeline.

However, for our bread and butter business, almost 95% of our selections are for easy to bet asian handicap markets, which gives everyone a good and equal chance to play, you would never see me give a selection for one european based company ( the Championship bets were all "general" quotes and freely available), as I know no one would be able to "get on". If you are a succesful punter, you can only bet on asian markets regulary, or maybe on the exchanges.

The previews are evolving all the time and many carry information you will not find elsewhere and which often give you "in play" alternatives for matches covered.

There were a few other articles on the clubgowi website you might want to check out, one related to preview content, another to the "smaller bettor and clubgowi" and a third detailing how you could profit even further from the match/event previews. 

Should any of you have questions about the clubgowi subscriber service, co-operation in the future, Ibramarket our sponsor, or anything at all, please feel free to email me at gowi8@btinternet.com and I will get back to you promptly.

Good Luck.

Saturday .....

Swindon Town- Brentford live on Sky, not sure I can continue to handle the pressure, it seems to have been mid-day for about two hours ! I guess the Championship matches which start shortly will help the  next five hours pass a little quicker, I have previewed five of the afternoon matches and you can read two of them on the clubgowi website.

Good Luck.

Monday .... Seventh time lucky !

Well, Saturday turned out to be photo 3 in the end ( see below and right, with the Bees missing a 94th minute penalty, which would have seen Championship football at Griffin Park next season.

I have no wish to comment on the events surrounding the penalty and who should , or should not, have taken it and do not believe boss Uwe Rosler should have openly said anything either. These things are always best done behind closed doors.

Marcello Trotta has come in for unbelievable criticism (that is being polite), he is 19-20 years old, the same age as one of my daughters and if she had come in for the same level of abuse, I do not think I would have been able to control myself.

At the end of the day, no one has died, Brentford still have a chance to go up through the playoffs, I believe that they will be in the Championship at some stage in the next two years, hopefully next month and the club on and off the field has made massive strides over the last 2-3 years. It is no longer run along League 1 lines and will not remain a third tier club for long.

Also, like most football supporters I am a sick addict, Brentford are my drug of choice and whilst I desperately want them to do well,  if I am honest, the buzz I get from following/watching them is only going to be minimally increased in the Championship and is only ever similarly slightly decreased in League 2. Although touch wood, I think the days of fourth tier football are behind us.

Since I started supporting Brentford, they have spent 70% of their time in the third tier and one single season in the second, they have finished second in "League 1" and not been promoted (94-95 the only year just one teeam went up !), relegated five times, lost six times in the playoffs ( a "perfect" record) and won basically sod all.

However, big family occasions aside, almost all the most memorable single events of my life ( good and bad) involve the club and the events of Saturday are just one more. Hopefully Wembley on May 19th will be another, but for very different reasons and we will be able to laugh about "the miss".... OMG what if the playoff final is decided on penalties !

Good Luck.

BTW, that photograph of Rosler and Peter Gilham (Mr Brentford) is a favourite of mine and never fails to cheer me up, it is more amusing if you know Gilham, or have seen him as enthusiastic match day announcer at Griffin Park .

Today's the day ! Hopefully photo 1 or 2 and not 3 !

Betting preview: Championship: Cardiff City- Bolton Wanderers

This should come with a government wealth warning, as I have not been in the best of form for the last week,  but having said that, both Cardiff City (winning 13.0) and Watford each way ( 67.0) secured big Championship paydays for us in the last 7 days, so hard to complain too much, but I will anyway !

There is another preview from this afternoon's action already posted on the clubgowi website.

 Championship: Cardiff City- Bolton Wanderers

Today is going to be party day at Cardiff for home supporters and maybe players, promotion and even the title is secure,so little really to play for. The visitors would clinch a playoff spot with a win, if Nottingham Forest fail to do likewise at Millwall. If Wanderers lose, matters would be outside their control should Forest win.

I have championed Bolton since the change in backroom staff earlier in the season, last time we discussed them was two weeks ago of their visit to Bristol City ...

Regular/ long term readers know that I am a BIG fan of Bolton boss Dougie Freedman and his backroom team, especially his number two, the hugely experienced Lennie Lawrence. Freedman is going to the top of the game as a coach, I suggested to you back in December when they were 17th in the Championship, that he was starting to pull this club up by their bootstraps and that he could get this team into the playoff picture and three points today, is likely to take the Trotters into the post season places. The work that Freedman did at Crystal Palace, both on and off the pitch, was amazing and he is instilling a lot of that same pride and discipline at Wanderers.When he convinced Lawrence to move North to re-join him he said it was "one of the best signings Bolton will ever make"  adding, I'm the driver of this ship, I will drive it through commitment, effort, desire and honesty, Lennie Lawrence will steer it." Great comment !

The visitors have won seven from nine, including against Brighton and Hull and have kept five cleansheets in that sequence. City are bottom of the Championship, eight points from safety with a worse goal difference than most, effectively nine points adrift with 5 rounds the play. They will be relegated, but have to give it a go, so will be all out for maximum points and will be gambling and taken chances against a superior team, knowing deep down, that ultimately it will not be enough anyway, which is a tough situation. Freedman will not underestimate City, but neither will he want anything less than the win and a 4-1 early season loss here for his Palace team, will serve as further motivation . Just three road wins for Wanderers, but I worry less about stats like that and team news at this stage of the season, despite which, the visitors have no new problems and a quality squad to pick from. Away win.

They won that 2-1 and have since lost by the odd goal in five at Leicester city and beat Middlesbrough at home. They will be without David Ngog and Jay Spearing today, but any losses should be offset by desire and determination to get something today and Freedman and Lawrence will have his team fired up for the challenge. City will be without Leon Barnett in central defence, he has been recalled by parent club Norwich City, he is set to be replaced by 19 yo Ben Nugent, who has only ever made six first team starts ( 8 in all comps, with just one cleansheet). Just one point seperates these two over the second half of the season and with the draw no bet safety net, Wanderers look the pick. 1.25 units Bolton Wanderers level ball asian line/ Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Friday ...

I am just putting the finishing touches to the first of two Friday newsletters, if you would like to receive a free

copy, just send an email to info@clubgowi.com with the subject title "freebie".

Good Luck.

Results .....

The results page on the clubgowi website has been updated with statistics for seven years of free to view

content, detailed newsletter results and a look how the odds have held up for readers who are not always available to bet first thing in the morning, when the email is sent out to subscribers, in other words, something for everyone and it is definitely worth a look.

I have previewed four matches today, with a selection in each, all at odds against, but to be honest, for me, this week is all about Brentford-Doncaster Rovers and 15.00 on Saturday cannot come quickly enough ! Since I have been following the Bees and that is a very long time, they have had one single season of second tier football and if they win at the weekend, they will have another next season, so you can probably appreciate how big a deal this is, with supporters flying in from all over the world to be at Griffin Park and why not, where else would you want to be !

Good Luck.

 

Sunday update.....

Tough week in terms of new bets, but we had a reasonable Saturday and clawed a little back and are only

"four" points down heading into the Sunday action.

As we won 18+ points last week and Cardiff City at odds of 13.0 secured the Championship title and another 15 points or so of profit yesterday, it is hard to be too upset, especially as Brentford head into the final weekend of the regular season, needing "only" to beat Donaster Rovers to secure promotion to the Championship.... it is going to be a long week until 15.00 next Saturday !

I have previewed five football matches today and put up a bet at circa 100-1, which I feel has a pretty solid chance .

We have already hit good form in J-League this season and are cranking things up in MLS (link) and with Brazilian football (where we were even more successful last season) starting shortly, we can start dreaming about all the summer profits we are likely to make. Nothing is guaranteed, but June-July have been our best consecutive months in each of the last three years.

Good luck with all your bets today.

What a weekend !

I was left mentally drained after the weekend, there was plenty to like almost everywhere you looked, clubgowi subscribers were on Adam Scott to claim the green jacket, but you did not need financial involvement to get sucked into the drama at Augusta. It was easy to feel sorry for Angel Cabrera (afterwards that is !) who could have won at either playoff hole, but the Aussie was a worthy winner and long overdue to win his first major. The spirit with which the extra holes were played, says much about the two men, who behaved like men and golf in general.

including a pulsating last 30 minutes in the Manchester City- Chelsea FA Cup semi-final which the competition deperately needed after the events of Saturday. But two events left me physically ruuning on empty and whilst I was too pumped to sleep much on Sunday night, after the US Masters, but I slept like a baby last night !

However, if it was drama you wanted, Griffin Park on Saturday was the place to be, Brentford were hosting Portsmouth and desperately needed all three points to continue their push for automatic promotion. Pompey followers had snapped up their full allocation of tickets weeks ago, many more found tickets to the home ends and others followed the game from outside the stadium. They know that their club will be playing fourth tier football next season, but were looking for maximum points to try and ensure their points deduction comes this season, and not next and more importantly, to celebrate the completion of a year long deal for Portsmouth supporters to take over ownership of their club. Anyway, all this made for a buoyant, celebratory, nervous and at times intimidating atmosphere and for much of the 90 minutes, all four of these emotions were to the fore at the same time ! Brentford led early, but Portsmouth scored two fantastic goals to take the lead and for ten minutes or so the Bees high tempo dropped, but it was soon back up again , with three very good substitutions from Uwe Rosler. The home players were running on empty after a match on a tough surface on Wednesday night, but their desire, commitment and refusal to lie down found a way back and two goals inside 90 seconds turned the match on it's head. Wild scenes followed, I do not remember a single goal being celebrated at GP like the winner on Saturday and people were still going crazy 4-5 minutes later !

Brentford will have to pick themselves up again today for a hugely important trip to Bramall Lane to face promotion rivals Sheffield United .... Beelieve !

Good Luck.

Saturday update

I asume that you all got got see the Sedan- Gazalec preview on the clubgowi website
yesterday, if not, why not ? Sedan won that 4-1 and whilst the hosts were down to sub 1.90 by the time I posted it on the site, the "over" was still trading at 2.16 and if you want first access to the odds, then sign up to the subscriber service!


If you are checking out the blog/ website/ social media pages, then you are obviously looking for help with your betting, believe me, 2-3 euros per day is cheap, infact, it is expensive not to !

Subscribers have already received two previews today (see below), these were sent at 16.00 UK time yesterday, Ventforet won 3-1, Nagoya 2-0 and it would make your breakfast taste so much better, if you already had those in the bank !

Subscribers received five full match previews for today, they can probably expect seven

tomorrow and we are already far enough ahead on the week to secure a profit even if all of those lose and whilst that is not in my plans, it is a nice safeguard !

Of more interest to me toda,y to be honest, are three points for my beloved Brentford, four wins and they are champions !

Good luck with your betting !


Ventforet Kofu- Kashiwa Reysol
We discussed the visitors last week ahead of their 3-3 home draw with Nagoya Grampus....

Kashiwa Reysol will be on cloud nine after that amazing 6-2 win at Suwon Samsung Bluewings in midweek, with nine Champions League group points in the bag, they can forget about the midweek visit from the South Korean side for the time being and concentrate fully on getting some league points, ahead of a pair of consecutive road games. Left back Wataru Hashimoto remains out injured and they have not kept a cleansheet in the last eight J-League he has missed and both FC Tokyo and Sendai had plenty of joy down this flank in recent wins over Reysol, this is something Grampus can look to exploit.

They drew the home game with Suwon in midweek and are in a very strong position in the Champions League, I feel they will be very focused on the league now for a few weeks and looking to close the gap on Urawa and Yokohama at the top of the table. However, Hashimoto remains out injured and that leaves the visitors vunerable at the back, experienced midfielder Ryoichi Kurisawa is also suspended and they have underperformed without him in the past (he missed the 2-1 loss at Sendai).

Ventforet have had an odd return to the top flight, being unbeaten in three road starts, but losing both home games and failing to score against Nagoya in one of those. However, they are close to full strength and will be really buoyed by a road win in both league and cup in the last 7 days, the 3-1 win at Omiya Ardija in midweek was an especially noteworthy
performance and the goals will have done them a lot of good confidence wise. They will want to win now in front of their own supporters and a drained opponent, missing two key players might be ideal.

However, Kashiwa are full of goals and scored ten in doing the double over Ventforet the season before last. I expect both to score and this match to go over with a degree of comfort. 1.25 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.25 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Nagoya Grampus- Albirex Niigata

Grampus scored three on the road at Kashiwa last week, in my preview I wrote .... The visitors (Nagoya) have won their last two starts and have a good goal scoring record in this fixture, with at least two in six of their last ten visits, with six of the last eight going "over". we have still not seen striker Joshua Kennedy this season and midfielder Jungo Fujimoto (33-2-5 ... last season) is also missing, he has only missed two matches in the last 12 months, but Nagoya did score twice in both. I watched highlights from both their previous road games, a 1-0 loss at Urawa and win by the same margin at Vetforet Kofu, both were much more open than the scoreline suggests and only a combination of the woodwork and some inspired goalkeeping, stopped more goals from being scored. I think we will see that even out here, both to score and "over" will be my selection.

Kennedy and Fujimoto look set to miss out again. Albirex are very goal shy and have only scored 34 goals in their last 44 J-League starts, including three in six this season, they only survived last year by Vissel and Gamba both failing to beat teams with nothing to play for, on the last day of the campaign and seem set to battle relegation for the third year running. they did win 1-0 at Vegalta Sendai last week, but that is a lucky venue for Niigata, this is not, they have won just once in ten visits and that came in a largely meaningless cup game.It is not just a case of Niigata not taking chances, they have too little time on the ball to create many, only having the majority of possession in 7 of their last 40 starts.  Grampus are a team who like to see plenty of the ball, which is probably why they have performed so well in these h2h meetings, that 5-0 loss in Niigata last year aside, which I have to put down as a blip, incredibly enough even in that they had the lion's share of the ball. Last season they had a bit of a soft underbelly and too often let their head's drop, but they look a bit tougher this time round and the point at Kashiwa, where they trailed twice and late winner at Ventforet, hints at a mentally stronger team this year. They were top two in both 2010 (champions) and 2011 and almost snatched a CL spot last season, after being off the pace for most of the campaign. They will expect to challenge for top 3 and to do so, need to win games like this, there is also the small matter of payback for the loss in Niigata last season. 1.25 units Nagoya Grampus -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

The Eagles have not quite landed, but are hovering !

I have not posted much on the blog, Twitter or website this week, but have sent out a few freebie previews

by email and everyone in the database will have got to see the Galatasaray preview ( reproduced in the post below).  Also, 276 of you were sent the preview directly below on February 14th.....one Europa League outright bet on Benfica at 26.0 +... there was 29.0 available, now, eight weeks later they are facing Fenerbahce in the semi-final and trading at 2.75 !

Nine football previews this week so far, seven winners, one push and one loss , today, I have previewed six matches for subscribers, four today and two for the Saturday morning J-League matches... I am a busy boy !

As I have told you many times before, I work hard so that subscribers do not have to, that is what they pay the big bucks for ( 7 euros for the Friday-Sunday previews !!!!!!). Give yourself a Spring treat.

Good Luck.


Europa League: (Written February 14th)

The last ten runnings of the Europa League/ UEFA Cup have seen seven winners from the Iberian Peninsula, five Spanish winners and two Portugese, they also supplied four losing finalists between them and all four semi finalists last year, the other three winners came from Eastern Europe, with two Russian winners and one from the Ukraine.
The Eastern teams are at a disadvantage early, coming off their winter break, but once we are in mid/late March, the pendulum swings the other way and they are fresher and at their peak, when others are beginning to tire.

This says as much about how these countries view the competition than anything else, they always show it respect and want to do well. Italian teams have a terrible record and since it was renamed the Europa League, only one has got past the Round of 32 and they lost in the Round of 16.

There are three Serie A teams left in the competition, Lazio, Napoli and Inter, but all have other major objectives for the season and I would offer a word of caution about all of them, not to say that they cannot win/ progress, just that I doubt that they are overly bothered.

The final is in Amsterdam this year and we can expect Ajax to be very motivated, but they might well have to see off Chelsea in the round of 16..

Atletico Madrid and Levante are the only two Spanish teams remaining and are drawn to face each other in the Round of 16, Atletico are looking to win for the third time in four years and given their league position, 12 points behind Barcelona and 11 clear of the fourth placed team, they already look assured of a Champions League spot for next season and I see no reason why they will not again be fully focused and this looks a decent draw for them, they have to be favourites IMO and 8.0 is a perfectly fair price, although a little skinny for my liking in a 32 runner race.

Despite facing a difficult tie with Bayer Leverkusen and going toe to toe with Porto for the domestic title, Benfica keep catching my eye at 29.0 in the outright market, they would play either Dynamo Kiev or Bordeaux next and I would favour them to beat either. They are unbeaten domestically, 14-4-0 and were a little hard done by in the Champions League. They look committed to this and all the big guns have travelled and they do have some very impressive weapons ....

Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes ,Bruno Varela, Melgarejo, Maxi Pereira, Luisinho, Luisão, Garay, Roderick Miranda , Jardel , André Almeida, Ola John, Enzo Perez, Salvio, Matic, Nicolás Gaitán, Urreta , André Gomes, Rodrigo, Lima, Cardozo.

They can field a starting eleven full of internationals and have a very nice mixture of experience and exciting young talent. Garay, Perez and Gaitan were all in the Argentine squad for the recent friendly in Stockholm, Salvio was in the squad for the previous international and is the youngest of the quartet. They have the class to go deep in this if they wish and the squad they have taken to Germany looks a statement of intent.
Leverkusen host Augsburg on Saturday afternoon, what is it with the Bundesliga ? Give them an extra day for goodness sake ! They are going to make some rotation between the two games of course, boss Sami Hyypiä admitted that and also that "a couple of our players have slight problems", refusing to give fiurther details. Almost four thousand visiting supporters have tickets for the game, which will make for a very good atmosphere, if pushed, I like the visitors with the handicap start, but must admit that +0.25 ball at sub 2.0 is not my favourite quote and if we are taking the outright anyway, I am happy to stick with that. 1 unit Benfica to win Europa League outright 26.0 + , there is bigger in a place or two.

Read the content .....

 I feel a little like the school teacher who after a failed test, continually tells the student to "read the question",

as I am always going on about the value of reading the clubgowi content, as opposed to just the red type selections/ results, but it is true and yesterday was a prime example.

Only a brief preview of the Galatasar- Real Madrid match, but take one minute to read it and if you watched the match you will appreciate how on the ball ,the notes, written  11 hours before kick off ,were.


Champions League: Galatasaray-Real Madrid ( written yesterday)
Real won the first leg 3-0, but Galatasaray showed enough attacking intent in the first half in Madrid to make a famous home win tonight at least a possibility. There is no way that the Spanish giants will not progress, but they will be without Sergio Ramos and Xabi Alonso, with the pair ensuring they picked up yellow cards after the tie was secure, so that they can enter the semi finals with a clean slate, not the first time we have seen these tactics from Real and Jose Mourinho. I think that the visitors might look for an early goal , they have scored in all 16 road games in the competition with "The Special One" at the helm and then switch off, which would allow the hosts to at least save face in front of a hostile and passionate crowd. Unfortunately Galatasaray striker Burak Yilmaz is also suspended, which is a loss, but they still have the firepower to trouble the visitors and Didier Drogba proved his well being with two goals over the weekend, this is very likely to be his swansong at this level of competition and I would not rule out a goal ( or two ?) for him, especially with Real short of options in central defence and vunerable from set pieces. Given that I feel Real will score (hardly a big surprise) and Gala are also without central defender Dany Nounkeu (31-0-0 all comps), the match clearly has goal potential. I see something like 2-3, 3-2 here and am going to opt for Galatasaray to score two or more ( over 1.5 goals), this is on offer at between 2.75 and 3.25 and I would make it a 1 unit pick at the lower odds, 1.5 units at the upper end. Many companies who do not have this option at present, offer it "in play", once the match has kicked off.

What was right ?

Real scored that early goal.

Galatasaray won the match.

Real sat back after the break.

Didier Drogba scored.

The match ended 3-2.

Galatasaray scored two or more goals.


To subscribe to the full service, receive 100 similar match/event previews each month directly to your email inbox and have the newsletter format explained, click here. 



Good Luck.

clubgowi website

There is a free offer on the clubgowi website , but you will need to be quick .

Good Luck.

Friday update ....

I definitely cannot repeat last Friday's nine winners ( see below) as I have only previewed five matches

today,  but one of  those was a very strong (1.75 unit ) selection, so I am hopeful/confident of turning a profit.

There was a free preview on the clubgowi website yesterday , which won and hopefully you all got to see that. Subcribers were given Benfica outright in the Europa League just seven weeks ago, which you can also read about in that article, it was given at 26.0 +, but many are on @ 29.0 (28-1) and with the Eagles now trading at circa 3.75, we have plenty of excitement for our money.  30 euros on that, would basically pay for a full one year subscription in one fell swoop, but I do not have to tell you what incredible value the email service offers.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ROUND UP ....

I previewed nine matches yesterday, across three emails, four from the Football League, three

from Ligue 2 and two from J-League, putting up ten selections. All are reproduced below in full, nine won and the loser ( Watford) were foiled by an injury time equaliser but I did highlight the potential for late goals in that game), which denied me a ten match cleansweep at odds of circa 1233-1 ( average odds 2.04).

Jubilo Iwata- Sagan Tosu 3-3 WON

Urawa 2-0  WON

Angers 3-2 WON

Laval 2-1 WON

Niort 2-1 WON

Niort- GFCO 2-1 WON

Watford 3-3 LOST

Scunthorpe 2-1 WON

Bradford 2-2 WON

Northampton 1-0 WON

Those previews ran to approx 5,000 words and cost subscribers as little as 2.4 euros , clubgowi newsletter subscription details on this link.


 J-League
Just very brief notes about two games, as I am not keen on the "break" just three games into the new season. We should be able to build up some momentum after this week.

Jubilo Iwata- Sagan Tosu

These two have pretty much carried on this season as they ended the last.

Sagan collected 29 points in the second half of 2012, a total only beaten by champions Sanfreece Hiroshima and are unbeaten this season, albeit with two draws. Goals have also been a feature for them, at both ends of the pitch and their last 20 J-League fixtures have produced 70 goals. Confirmed team news was hard to come by, but it looks like they will be without right winger Shohei Okada and young centre back Tatsuya Sakai.

Jubilo collected just 19 points from their last 17 starts in 2012 and are without a win this time round, going 1-3-8 over their last 12 starts, infact, they have not beaten a "non relegated team since last August, with their last two wins of the year coming against Vissel Kobe and Gamba Osaka. However, two league cup wins last week and seven goals hints at better things to come and the three goals that Ryohei Yamazaki scored might well serve as a wake up call to striker Ryoichi Maeda, who was away with the national team, he has scored just once in 13 starts. Three way competition for starting places up front now, Hidetaka Kanazono also scored twice in the cup and this can only be good for Iwata.

The three h2h meetings last year, all went "over" and averaged 4.33 goals and I expect this to follow suit, given Sagan's free and easy ways and likely greater offensive threat from the hosts. There is circa 3.40 for over 3.5 goals which also appeals, but lets keep things simple..... 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 1.93 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Albirex Niigata - Urawa Reds
I previewed Niigata's last league match a trip to Omiya Ardija .....

Albirex only survived by virtue of other teams failure to win on the last day of last season and have started with two defeats this time round, goals were a problem all year ( just 29 in 34 starts) and they look to have done little to address that situation. Today they will be without keeper Masaaki Higashiguchi ( 79 goals conceded in 73 starts) and will go with Takaya Kurokawa (who concedes at the rate of 0.25 goals per game more), between the sticks. Right winger Seiya Fujita (24-1-0) is suspended, Albirex averaged 1.33 points when he played last season, 0.8 per game without him. Striker Tatsuya Tanaka signed from Urawa , left the pitch injured last week and looks set to miss this match. They lost a few absolutely key defensive players in the off season, Naoki Ishikawa to Sendai, Daisuke Suzuki to Kashiwa and Gotoku Sakai to Stuttgart, all of whom made circa 30 starts last year ,their backline and keeper Higashiguchi kept them in the top flight and things look a bit bleak a t present.

I am still not quite sure how they found an injury time equaliser for a 1-1 draw in that game, but goals are clearly going to continue to be a problem for them again this season. Defensively, they will still be without keeper Masaaki Higashiguchi ( see above) and given the players they let go in the off season, seem incapable of a clean sheet agaisnt anyone, let a team, with the offensive promise of Urawa.

Reds might have one eye on their Champions League match with Jeonbuk Motors in midweek, but are at virtually full strength, are coming off a full 14 day break and will be hungry to get going. They have a terrific record in this series and have not lost in Niigata for six meetings, or home or away in 14 starts. 1.5 units Urawa Reds -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/ Ibramarket.

France: Ligue 2

Chateauroux- Angers

Hosts have been very solid at home all season on their artificial pitch, where they are unbeaten (6-8-0), including a recent win over highflying Guingamp and draw with Monaco, too many draws all round for them of course, they have actually only lost the same number of games as Caen who are currently third, but 15 stalemates tell the story of too little ambition at times. If they had gambled and maybe won 7 and lost 8 of those, they would be putting pressure on the top three, instead of hovvering just three points above the drop zone. I think they have tried to open up a little and have scored five goals in their last four away games, but only collected a single point for their troubles and their only cleansheets in ten starts have come against two goal shy teams in Istres and Arles, although, to be fair, the latter have found a few goals since that game. I feel we will see the home side fully committed to maximum points tonight, with a tough trip to Dijon next, followed by a visit from Nantes, as it would be easy for them to drop points in both and get sucked into real danger.

Angers are in 5th, three points behind both Caen and Guingamp and with those two looking certain to pick up points this weekend, this is a match the visitors dare not lose and should look to win, we have discussed them several times over recent weeks, ahead of a trip to Le Mans I wrote ....

They immediately bounced back with a 1-0 defeat of Gazelec and that says a lot about them, they are tough and will fight, but are a little short on class and tend to come up short against the better teams in Ligue 2, actually, they are a bit of a "flat track bully" with 11 of their 13 wins coming against teams outside the top 9 . One of those was a 4-0 defeat of Le Mans in the reverse fixture, with Claudiu Keserü (24-14-2) scoring all four goals. Doubtless he will be up for this and that the hosts will have tried to come up with a gameplan to stop the prolific Romanian striker. The visitors remain without Gomez and Lemaire and also right sided midfielder Rayan Frikeche (19-3-0), but Zoro, Fall ( suspended last week) and Couturier are back in the squad and overall they look a little stronger and definitely fresher, since we last discussed them. New signing Ayari and Doré are competing for the starting role alongside Keserü, the Tunisian got the nod last week, but was replaced after an hour, with Doré assisting for the winner and competition between the two can only be good for Angers.

They won that 2-0 and then hosted Dijon when I spoke about the extra competion up front ..... Férébory Doré (see above) clearly made a strong case for getting that starting place nod, by scoring both goals, his first since last May and strikers are always worth keeping an eye on when they start scoring, especially when they are hungry to keep their job, but having said that Doré has never been prolific and is more of a provider. Midfielder Rayan Frikeche (19 appearances -3 goals -0 assists) and Diego Gomez (15-1-1) remain sidelined, the are a better team with both especially Gomez, but he has not played in 2013 and they have won their last two without his right sided colleague.

They drew that 3-3 and were unlucky IMO, falling behind against the run of play and actually trailing 3-1 late, but they showed terrific spirit to score two late goals and following up with a 2-2 draw in Monaco, where they led twice. Tonight, all the players discussed above, Kesuru ( 17 goals this season and five in his last five starts), Gomez, Ayari,Doré, Fall, Zoro and Couturier are all available and they now look a team with goals in them. Centre back Fabien Boyer (22-0-0) and holding player Vincent Manceau (23-1-1) miss out, which does leave them looking a little weaker defensively.Hosts remain without midfielder Yohan Hautcoeur (21-1-0) but have no other problems of note.

Angers have won on their last two visits, including on the artificial surface last season and I favour them to win a match, or at least not lose a game where I feel we will see goals. Getting the draw as a safeguard when Chateauroux play is always nice though and I will stick with the visitors and their ability to "beat up" on struggling teams. 1.5 units Angers level ball 2.14 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Châteauroux : Millieras, Milosavljevic - Nestor, Fournier, Neves, Afougou, Sambou, Sartre, Chamed, De Freitas, Orinel, Guerriero, Guidileye, Tainmont, Jeannot, Essombé.
Angers : Malicki, Letellier - Fall, Zoro, Hénin, Couturier, Diallo, Frikeche, Auriac, Ravet, El Jadeyaoui, Gomez, Diers, Keserü, Doré, Ayari.


Laval - Le Mans

Derby of the Pays de la Loire.

Regular readers know that I have been keen to oppose Le Mans, especially on the road this season, although the last time we looked at them was ahead of their 3-0 home defeat to Nimes two weeks ago .... Le Mans are without Chinese defensive midfielder Jiaqi Zhang (4-1-0 ..... lost one of four when he has played), left back Jason Buaillon (18-0-5) and left winger Olivier Thomert (12-0-1), We have spoken many times about how they had a squad prepared for third tier football and that a last minute reprieve from relegation, left them short of Ligue 2 quality. Lack of options in certain positions is all too apparent ,they look short on the left tonight and having named just four defenders, have added a third choice and inexperienced defender to midfield, where he might be asked to play out of position. All is not well at the club, salaries have been paid late again and they have only won five of their last 21 starts, those wins came against Laval, Gazelec, Chateauroux, Niort and Sedan, all are in the bottom eight and four were in the drop zone when they played Le Mans. They have beaten just one top 7 team all season, a shock 2-0 win at Caen, this is a match we have discussed often and one Le Mans should have lost by 3-4 goals !

Zhang and Buaillon remain out and are joined by striker Fousseyni Cissé (16-4-1) and keeper Jérémie Janot ( 25 starts... they have conceded six goals in the 3.5 games he has been sidelined. They are now in the drop zone, mood at the club is not good and they look a prime relegation candidate unless something changes and quickly.

As I have said before, I suspect I have seen the best of Laval this season and they look too strong to go down (famous last words) IMO. We were firmly on them to beat Sedan here last month in a similar type of game, they won that 3-0 and have played pretty well since, losing narrowly on the road to Caen and collecting points from each of their other fixtures, including a 2-1 win over promotion chasing Guingamp in their last home start. Those results have enabled them to ease one point clear of the drop zone, this and their next two starts are all "six pointers", but dispite being a derby fixture, this looks the easier of the points on offer. They have won the last four h2h matches here, one was in extra time, but there was a 4-1 win in pre season. 1.5 units Laval -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/ Ibramarket.


Laval : Balijon, Hautbois - Belaud, Stosic, Perrot, Ma.Traoré, Falette, Talmont, Ewolo, Betsch, Hamdi, Ou.Traoré, Gonçalves, Do Marcolino, Gimbert, Viale.
Le Mans : Beunardeau, Makaridze - Baby, Cuffaut, Koné, Kassaï, Kanté, Thomas, Sido, Sanson, Omrani, Thomert, Zito, Belfort, Mendes, Sylla.

Niort- GFCO Ajaccio

Niort really have to win this, they are outside the relegation places only on goal difference and travel to play Monaco next week, infact their fixtures for the next month or so are incredibly tough and to give themseleves a fighting chance of survival, they need the three points this evening. Gazelec look doomed, bottom of the table, nine points from safety and with just one win and nine goals on the road all season. They always looked to be fighting a losing battle, with third tier (at best) facilities and a tiny budget and their only win in ten starts ( eight defeats) came against an Istres team who could not score in a brothel and were running on empty after a big cup game a few days earlier and even then, they conceded twice and Istres have only managed one single goal in ten outings since ! In March Niort have taken points from Dijon and Lens and lost 2-1 at Le Havre, where they were very close to claiming a share of the spoils, conceding late and being denied even later by a stunning save, which even then, also needed help from the woodwork.

Visitors will have to try and give themselves a chance and if they could win this, would "only" be six points adrift of Niort, so the hosts are going to get more space to exploit than usual. Gazelec have tightened up a little in recent starts, but might have to ditch the five man defence, at least at some stage tonight and this will get stretched.

Niort remain without Mustafa Durak (15-5-1)and Simon Hebras (21-1-3) , but they have not played in four months/ seven weeks respectively and can no longer be considered key injuries, no new problems for the visitors.

Hosts feel they are well prepared for this having focused solely on GFC for two weeks and confident, with goalkeeper Paul Delecroix describing much of their play against Dijon and Le Havre as "beautiful", he feels the team have upped their level of performance considerably and will soon start to get better results. Niort did the double over GFC in National last season and if both are not to return there, they need the points tonight. They led twice in the reverse fixture, with midfielder Johan Gastien scoring twice, Jimmy Roye scored in both meetings last year and with two goals in his last four starts, both will be further motivated this evening, if that were needed. 1.5 units Niort -0.5 ball 2.02 asian line/ Ibramarket.

On the basis of my "two struggling teams means goals adage" at this stage of the season, I am nowhere near strong enough to pass on this price either which is HUGE in my opinion and a full quarter ball bigger than I made it, so a double bet game for me. 1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.21 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Niort : Delecroix, Roche - Lahaye, Konaté, Pallois, Bernard, Durand (cap.), Gastien, Houla, Roye, Diaw, Sané, Bong, Ricaud, Glombard, Lafourcade.
Ajaccio GFC : M'Bolhi, Maury - Poggi, Filippi, Rachidi, Romey, Y.Touré, Colinet, Seymard, Laïfa, Saadi, Verdier, Maïga, Dufau, Novillo, Colloredo.



Championship: Watford- Burnley
I expect to see a very motivated and relieved home side take to the field at Vicarage Road this afternoon, motivated because three points will take them back up into the automatic promotion spot, at least for 24 hours and relieved because consecutive defeats, in matches they should probably have taken four points from, hasn't come at a greater cost. Their nearest challengers Hull City, Crystal Palace and Leicester City all failed to take full advantage and the only team charging at present are email favourites Nottingham Forest, who have done us several big favours in recent weeks. Key striker Matej Vydra (33-20-8) has had a huge week, being voted npower Championship player of the season and scoring twice for the Czech Republic against Armenia and he will be keen to match himself against another second tier hotshot, in 23 goal Clarets striker, Charlie Austin.

Burnley are ten points off the playoff places now and are actually closer to the drop zone and they might well be just a little more focused on their two home games next week, having not won in front of their own supporters in five starts, all the talk this week at Turf Moor has been about that poor run at home and the match with Forest on Monday, clearly appears to be their biggest game of the holiday weekend. Goals have certainly dried up for them with just four in their last eight and it is easy to see why, 16 of Austin's goals came before the first week in November, the only other player to have had more than 19 attempts on target this season is Martin Paterson and he has not scored since that same first week in November. There is just not a lot of offensive threat from elsewhere and the attacking play is too one dimensional, with everything targeted towards the pair, especially Austin. They had a handful of players away on international duty in midweek and the mood among st these was hardly helped by universally poor results, best of which was a 0-0 draw for Fulham loanee Alexander Kacaniklic with Sweden.

Watford were starting to look a little weary and the 13 day break was perfect, especially for some of the large Italian contingent for whom the Championship schedule was taking a toll, Marco Cassetti spoke about this earlier in the week saying, "the international break has provided a welcome opportunity to regroup and prepare for the final eight games , it's perfect, good timing for recovery, energy, to prepare for the next match in the best way." Nyron Nosworthy returned from international duty with what looks a season ending injury, but he would probably not have started today in any case and the hosts have options, it is also possible that coach Gianfranco Zola might bring in someone today ( Thursday) as cover.They will have Almen Abdi (31-10-8) in midfield, he has nine goals or assists in his last 12 starts and his energy was missed at Barnsley, keeper Manuel Almunia might also return, after missing the last four starts ( no cleansheets) and if both started, it would be a huge boost. I strongly feel that the break has been of more use to Watford, they have good bouncebackability following defeats, despite that slip up at Barnsley and the mood in the home camp is far more upbeat. 1.5 units Watford -0.5 ball 2.03 asian line/ Ibramarket.  Of course, many of us are on Watford at big prices 11.0-15.0 for promotion and if that is the case, you might want to skip this, or scale down your bet.

Watford have scored a high 34% of all their goals between the 60th-75th minute, they have conceded 54% if the final 30 minutes and with Burnley also shipping 50% of all their goals in the final third of games, we could see plenty of late action.

League 1 : Scunthorpe United- Leyton Orient

Orient continue in good form and are unbeaten in seven, but they have failed to impress me this season and I feel they have overachieved with a top ten placing ( currently 9th), they have taken points from a number of games where they have been comprehensively outplayed for long periods, like at Preston last week, where keeper Jamie Jones almost singlehandedly earned them a point and they have more than ridden their luck several times. Yes, I am a little bitter as they took four points from Brentford in games where they would have been fortunate to score nil and I accept that luck can only continue for so long and when they play at their very best, they are a match for anyone, but those periods are few and far between and my argument is that they have got far more from their "dips" than most teams would. They are "only" four points adrift of a playoff spot, but have played between 1-3 games more, than most of the teams they are hoping to pip for a post season spot. This means they will have to gamble for the win and diverge from their normal gameplan on the road, at least at some stage, usually they look to keep things very tight and hit teams on the break. They will be without central defender Scott Cuthbert (18-0-0) today, they have collected 0.41 points per game more when he starts, so that is a loss, especially after losing Ben Chorley in the January window. Baudry and Clarke are an ok central pairing, but there are few other options. This, for me, is also a team with a bit of a soft underbelly, they are fine when things are going their way, but they have collected a League 1 low three points from losing positions this season and only Aldershot Town in the whole of the Football League have managed fewer.

United were read the riot act by coach Brian Laws after their 3-2 home defeat to leaders Doncaster Rovers in a local derby last week, that was their fourth loss in a row and has seen them drop back into the bottom three and having played two games more than Oldham Athletic, the team immediately above them in the table. With a trip to highflying Bournemouth on Monday, this really is must win time if the Iron are going to survive. They do create chances, 443 attempts on goal is the highest of any team in the bottom half of the table, 40 more than Orient and circa 80 more than the other relegation candidates, but too many sloppy goals conceded has cost them dearly. Akpo Sodje, Mike Grella and Karl Hawley are all proven scorers at this level and above, they are capable of firing the goals to keep United up, or at least give them a fighting chance, if the backline can just tighten up a bit. Paul Reid (21-1-1) returned at centre half last week after missing a lot of recent games, h e should be much fitter after a free midweek and United have averaged 1.39 points when he starts, 0.62 when he doesn't, which is 35 points+ difference across the full season. Hosts have a very good record against Orient, losing just once in 12 h2h starts home and away, including a 3-1 win in London earlier in the season, when their opponent had just won eight in a row .Huge game for United and time for a win. 1.25 units Scunthorpe United level ball 1.96 asian line/ Ibramarket.

League 2 : Bradford City- Southend United

Regular readers know that I rate these two amongst the stronger League 2 teams, sometines the table does lie ! Both got majorly distracted by Cup runs and United have had a terrible time with injuries. The visitors expected automatic promotion this season and failure to claim that, cost Paul Sturrock his job recently, Phil Brown has come in this week , with the club looking to make one last attempt to get into the playoffs, With his new team, six points off the pace and just 7 matches remaining and City seven adrift, with eight to play , we can expect both to be going all out for the points this afternoon. A draw will have very little value, if one of thse could win both starts over the weekend, it would really set up a late playoff push.

United are still without left Chris Barker and midfielder Michael Timlin, but Gavin Tomlin (27-12-2), Barry Corr ( 10 goals all comps), Luke Prosser and Ryan Leonard are all  pushing for recalls and that will give Brown increased and talented options. City have no new problems and we have two strong teams surely going all out for the points, Brown favours an offensive 4-3-3, or tended to at Hull City and Preston and United have gone with variations on that recently 4-5-1, which became 4-3-3, so fairly sure we will see that today. Goals for me . 1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 1.95 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Southend have scored 44% of their goals in the 30 minutes after the break, City have both scored and conceded 31% in the final 15 minutes, so don't give up on the "over" too early !
League 2 : Northampton Town - Torquay United

These two both won for us last Saturday and those previews are reproduced at the foot of this email. Town edged home 1-0 with hugely promising Wigan Athletic loanee keeper Lee Nicholls keeping his 14th cleansheet of the campaign. The win came at a cost as key central defender Kelvin Langmead (39-7-2 ) picked up an injury, but boss Aidy Boothroyd has acted quickly and with the support of his board signed Nathan Cameron from Coventry City, a player the coach knows well from his time with the Sky Blues. Cameron is highly thought of by Boothroyd who gave the 21 yo his debut and he has since gone on to make 52 first team appearances, all at the higher level. He looks a good replacement, for what is a big loss. No other problems of note, Town can go second with the win and will be very motivated to claim the points with a trip to Cheltenham Town, who are behind them only on goal difference, on Monday.

United surged into an early 2-0 lead over York, but made things far more difficult for themselves than it needed to be, conceding a second half penalty and red card, which means that Tom Cruise (not him ! .....15-0-1... started last four matches/ 8 points) is suspended. Also , with 46 points they do have a degree of safety now and with perhaps one eye on the remaining three home games, one on Monday, where they can collect the 4-5 points needed to ensure survival. Further, they played a Devon St Luke's Challenge Cup semi-final (!) against Bideford on Tuesday and gave a run out to at least six players who will be in the squad for today, albeit most on the bench. Boss Alan Knill doesn't have a lot of options and has been desperately trying to sign a striker on loan this week. I feel Town will be more up for this today, with United looking to hold something back for Monday, they have won nine in a row at home and kept four consecutive cleansheets, they should be able to make it ten this afternoon. 1.25 units Northampton Town -0.5 ball 1.92 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Good Luck.


Written March 22nd

League 2 : Northampton Town- Oxford United

This is considered a "derby" fixture, with increased interest this season as Town are still hopeful of an automatic promotion spot and United still seeking a playoff place. The visitors have upped their game since getting a few players back for injury in late November, which got them onto the fringe of the top 7, but just two wins in 8 at their Kassam Stadium home where the level of expectation is very high, have cost them and now six points off the pace and having played a game more than most and with just seven rounds left, they can only be looking for the win this afternoon. That is pretty much their style in any case being 8-2-9 on the road, no new injuries for them, but midfielders Lewis Montrose (20-1-2)and Peter Leven (20-4-4) and left back Tony Capaldi (28-0-2) remain out, that trio would all be considered starters, also missing is striker Justin Richards (17-1-0).

We spoke about Town ahead of their trip to Morecambe ..... Town are in very good shape, both team and results wise. After collecting 20 point from their opening 16 starts, they have 41 from their last 21 and arrive here on the back of a 2-0 defeat of Accrington Town, where theyrested 17 goal striker Adebayo Akinfenwa as a precaution, right sided midfielder Chris Hackett (32-6-12) came into the team and scored the opener on Saturday, after similarly being rested and boss Aidy Boothroyd is keen to keep everything fresh and players hungry. The Cobblers have assembled a decent squad, have one of the bigger playing budgets in League 2 and with no injury concerns of note, have a whole host of quality players like striker Jake Robinson and midfielder Luke Guttridge , looking to force their way back into the starting eleven. Town are pushing for a top 3 place and automatic promotion spot, they sit in 4th one point below Burton, but have three teams below them within two points and any failure to win now, is going to have consequences.

They drew that 1-1, so no damage done as we backed them off level ball, but despite only equalising late, they had chances to win, lots of them and incredibly hit the woodwork four times ! They have not played since, so are now sixth, but only four points off a top three spot with a game in hand and six points + clear of the team in eighth, it would be pointless to settle for a draw here. Both teams will surely look for maximum points and the opening goal should see this get stretched, I expect goals but prefer the odds on the home win. 1.5 units Northampton Town -0.25 ball 1.99 asian line/ Ibramarket.

League 2: Torquay United- York City
These two have been in freefall for months, in early November there was little sign of what was to come, United were in the playoff places and newly promoted City a promising 10th spot. The visitors are now in the drop zone having won just once since mid December, the Gulls have at least stalled if not entirely stopped the rot with a 2-1 defeat of Chesterfield in midweek, which came on the back of draws at Dagenham and Southend United, where they played well and perhaps deserved much more. Boss Alan Knill took charge of the team on an interim basis last month and had declared that confidence amongst his players was growing , before the upturn in fortune and now that they have that much needed win, they will be looking to build on it and pull away from the drop zone. Two of their next three starts are tough trips to Northampton ( 14 home wins) and leaders Gillingham, so they know that just two points ahead of York, they could soon replace them at the foot of the table, if they do not collect the win today. 1.25 units Torquay United -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line/Ibramarket.