TUESDAY .....

I sent out three match previews this morning and have included one below, notes were very basic on this game, but I have included some earlier thoughts from last month to provide some background information, which hopefully helps.

Manchester United showed limited ambition in the last 15-20 minutes last night and almost paid the price when Fulham were denied a big penalty shout late on. United concede a penalty at Old Trafford about twice every three seasons and the foul usually has to be committed with a machete or shotgun , or the United player actually catch rather than handle the ball for the spot kick to be awarded. To be fair, United do have a very good disciplinary record, receiving just 36 yellow and one red card all season.

Sevilla again ran out comfortable winners last night and at 2-0 up missed several good chances to increase their advantage, before their third goal came as time expired. They are definitely not out of the european picture yet ,with nine rounds still to play. They have home games with Mallorca and Zaragoza and a road trip to Bilbao up next, a visit to hugely talented Athletic is never easy, but by the time they meet, the hosts will have played Schalke ( Europa League QF) twice and Barcelona all inside eight days. So, a real opportunity for Los Rojiblancos to go on a big run.

CONFERENCE : TAMWORTH - GRIMSBY TOWN
We spoke at some length about Town earlier in the season (see below) and especially about how the management team had got them up and running and they were looking at a promotion, FA Trophy double. They lost out in the FAT and that affected their league form especially defensively, but they have acted quickly resigning Andrew Wright on loan from League 1 Scunthorpe United, he was here earlier in the season and played in the 1-1 draw at promotion rivals Luton Town at the weekend. That steadied the ship and now the Mariners have to look for the win.

They are in 9th spot, but could go to within a point of the playoff spots with three points tonight, they will have played more games than the teams around them, but have a good goal difference and still have to host Southport, the team they have the best chance of catching and so, will effectively, have their fate in their own hands if they win this evening.

Tamworth are in 15th place in the Conference, they are 10 points off 13th place and seven clear of 17th, so they have little to play for, they are probably 1.10 to finish between 13th-17th and the likelyhood is that it will be 15th, so any motivation is minimal and certainly far less than the visitors.

Hosts have scored just once in six outings, with four draws, including a recent 0-0 in the reverse fixture. They fielded seven defenders in that game, Town had 18 attempts on goals and hit the woodwork twice, we can expect Tamworth to open up more tonight in front of their own fans and give Town more space to exploit. 1.5 units Grimsby Town -0.5 ball 2.0 + .... there is some 2.05 around.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 2ND

Next email will be sent Friday morning at the "normal" time which is circa 10.00 UK.

I have two golf bets for this week and a football bet for the weekend, this is my first two unit football bet of the year, two things about that, one, I obviously like it a lot and as I explained last month, there will not be many of these in future and the difference between a 1.5 unit and 2 unit bet is big, as it ticks ALL the boxes and not just most of them, however, two units is my max bet, so there it is. BUT, it is very far from a sure thing, just one I feel offers very good value, odds are close to even money and my idea of the correct quote is nearer to 1.55, but 1.55 shots do lose every day of the week.

FA TROPHY : SATURDAY, BATH CITY - GRIMSBY TOWN

City had shown signs of recovery before losing their last three matches with an 11-0 goals difference, one of those came 6-0 at Grimsby in the league just two weeks ago, that sequence sees them bottom of the Conference, a huge ten points from safety and they face a six pointer with Newport on Tuesday night, in a match where defeat will probably be the end for them. I could say that there will only be focused on that game and if they were 4-5 "only" points adrift, that would probably be the case, but they might feel they have more chance of winning the FAT and getting some glory, than getting out of this relegation hole. However, I doubt it will make too much difference whatever approach they take. Very little has gone their way and they will be without Gethin Jones, Sean Canham and Lewis Hogg, all of whom are suspended today and probably two other key players too in Murray and Burnell, who picked up knocks at the weekend. They like to play 4-3-3 and are happy with that formation, but do not have the options to do so now, so will not only be in poor form and most likely without half a team, but will have to change their style completely too and as one of the few part time teams in the Conference, they have almost no time to work on an alternative system.

If everything is going wrong for City, the reverse is true for the Mariners, who have not lost inside 90 minutes in 20 starts, their only reverse coming after extra time in the FA Cup. They have won 8 from 9 since then, drawing 2-2 at Barrow, who were themselves unbeaten in ten and Town were only denied by an injury time equaliser that day. Not wanting to rest on their laurels they signed Louie Soares from Hayes just before the deadline, the Barbados international has scored 16 goals in 34 starts for a struggling team this season and played 32 games for Southend in League 2 last season. Town further delighted their fans by turning down any approaches for free scoring Liam Hearn, who scored his fourth ( !) hat-trick of the season against Bath last time out. They also collected a huge bonus yesterday, when Ryan Bennett moved from Peterborough United to Norwich, as they have 25% of the profit as a sell on fee, so circa a £625k windfall, massive for a Conference team. It seems that at present everything they touch turns to gold !

Soares will be cup tied for this game, but his signing will keep all the players on their toes and goodness knows how many he and Hearn will score before the end of the season .

Town are a big club at this level, only Luton are bigger and the Mariners have averaged over 500 supproters at every away game, despite only the Lincoln derby game being within a couple of hours driving time. Expect several hundred to make this long trip, they will make up close to half the crowd and despite a playoff place being their main target for the season, that looks well within their grasp now and a Wembley appearance in the Trophy to go along with it would be perfect and they have said from day one that they are up for this competition. Prior too the 6-0 defeat of City last time, they had led 2-0 in three earlier encounters, before being pegged back, so four times led by two in h2h matches, they made no mistake last time and pushed on and with a replay the last thing they want, I expect them to do likewise today and another big win, could easily follow for handicap bettors out there. 2 units Grimsby Town -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com