An edited version of my daily notes, sent to subscribers overnight is reproduced below. It included four red type selections, two suggestions and a very nice multiple at odds of 35.0.
There was also an early non league selection sent Friday, which is now trading a full quarter goal lower.
I can only post in full one of the red type selections on here, but even the "suggestions" include some useful information. Results do not really matter short term, but the content does and if you want to receive the notes, in full, on a daily basis, for about the cost of a cup of coffee, sent me an email @ gowi8@btinternet.com
SATURDAY APRIL 21ST
I will send a brief update email at 14.00
today .
Six matches to
discuss in this email. Four selections, two suggestions at big odds and a
very juicy looking multiple bet at a massive 34-1 .
Pompey beat Crystal Palace 2-1 on Tuesday and kept alive their slim survival hopes, now they need to see off Derby County and hope that Barnsley manage to take a point off Bristol City and keep the dream alive to the last week of the season. Palace were a little unlucky not to claim a share of the spoils, they hit the woodwork and were wasteful infront of goal. County are a similar level side to Palace, they also arrive with nothing to play for being rooted in midtable, what Pompey would give for that ! Derby arrive on the back of consecutive losses to play off contenders and failed to score in both, but their performance in a wide open game at Cardiff in midweek was much improved and they carved out a number of goalscoring opportunities. Visiting coach Nigel Clough will be without defender Tom Naylor and midfielder Ben Davies (both hamstring) and he has added youngsters Mason Bennett and Will Hughes to the squad,Bennett, who is 15, became Derby County's youngest-ever player when he made his first-team bow in October against Middlesbrough while 16-year-old Hughes came off the bench in the Rams' 3-2 loss at Peterborough United in November. Clough intends to give both some game time at Fratton Park.....
REST OF THE PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS
LEAGUE 1: STEVENAGE BOROUGH - BRENTFORD
Stevenage
found a late winner at home to Carlisle in midweek and that really
opened up the four way race for what looks the sole remaining playoff
spot, that is unless Hudderfield Town or MK Dons do the gentlemanly
thing and lose their last three starts....
 | 4 |  1 | Milton Keynes | 43 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 81 | 45 | +36 | 74 | WWXL | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 44 | 21 | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 37 | 24 |
| 5 |  1 | Huddersfield Town | 43 | 19 | 17 | 7 | 75 | 46 | +29 | 74 | LLLW | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 19 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 43 | 27 |
| 6 |  | Notts County | 43 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 65 | 55 | +10 | 67 | OWWW | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 24 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 31 |
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 2 | Stevenage | 43 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 62 | 41 | +21 | 66 | WWXL | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 19 | |
| 8 | 1 | Carlisle United | 43 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 66 | LLOX | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 37 | 29 | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 32 | |
| 9 | 1 | Brentford | 43 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 58 | 46 | +12 | 64 | OOWW | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 24 | |
Boro
have still to go to Sheffield United next week and Carlisle are at
Sheffield Wednesday this afternoon, Notts County have the easiest run in
on paper and currently in pole position, have to be favourites, but
pressure is a funny thing and it would not surprise me were they to slip
up. Brentford could put themselves in seventh today with a win, possibly even sixth and they
will surely have to go all out for the three points, even coach Uwe
Rosler, who has been accused of being a little too negative at times,
will surely be prepared to throw caution to the wind at some stage.Boro
do not really have a fearsome home record, OK, they have only lost three
times here, but just a 38% win record and only twice this season have
they scored two or more goals and not also conceded two or more. The
Bees are unbeaten in seven, with two draws and have only conceded twice
in
675
minutes, both goals coming
when they were already two up, in a 3-1 win at Preston and 2-1 victory
at MK Dons. They are coming off two 0-0 draws, but were jaded in the
first and facing a fresher opponent and last week, Notts County came
with only a point in mind and the game never got going with a lot of
free kicks and the visitors looking to slow the game down at every
opportunity. We can expect this to be a more open encounter and the Bees
cannot have any excuses after a free midweek, when they have had five
clear days to prepare for one opponent, Boro have had to face two
promotion rivals inside four days and despite their high fitness levels,
might feel the effects of that, the longer this one goes. Brentford
will have big travelling support, they have already sold 1,100 + tickets
and should have closer to 1,400 in the stadium, which is likely to be
25% + of the total attendance. Bees have moved slightly from a 4-5-1
formation on the road, to 4-4-1-1, with Saunders, who is at
the top of his game, playing just behind Donaldinho and this has worked
really well in recent away starts. Last home loss for Boro, came
against Orient who played a very similar formation to the Bees. Close game to call, any value is probably on the straight away win, which looks overpriced at circa 3.40 IMO.
LEAGUE 1 : CHARLTON ATHLETIC - WYCOMBE WANDERERS
Charlton are promoted, they need
four more points to make mathematically certain of going up as Champions
and six would give them that "magical" total of 100 points for the
season, but they could reach both targets by winning their last two
games after today and still have that last day of the season home
fixture with Hartlepool, with which to put on a show for their
supporters. My point is that they do not have to win today.
The situation is very different
for the visitors, they are three points from safety and the two teams
just above them have very win-able fixtures this afternoon, Leyton
Orient hosting Yeovil Town and Walsall going to Exeter City, who whilst
not quite relegated yet, are in even bigger trouble, five points behind
and with an inferior goal difference to Wycombe. Wanderers need the win,
especially with their two remaining fixtures also very tough looking
games on paper, a visit from Notts County, who will be battling for that
final playoff spot and a trip to Hillsborough to face Wednesday,
currently third in the table, although a glimmer of hope there as the
Owls might have nothing to play for by that stage and could be looking to rest
players ahead of the post season.
I feel Charlton
have ridden their
luck a lot this season, it is hard to call a team fortunate after 43
games when they lead the field by six points and all but two teams by 20
+ , but I have seen them outplayed on at least five occasions and in
each, they have managed to win by a single goal, in two, with virtually
their only attempt on goal in 90 minutes, BUT they have won 28 games and
you can't argue with that, as much as I would like to try ! Anyway,
Notts County and Colchester United have come here and won in the last
5-6 weeks and Rochdale and Bury collected recent points
at the Valley and Walsall came here on Easter Monday, had 16 attempts on
goal and
left feeling "robbed". You could argue that Wanderers are hungrier than
all of those visitors, they do have goals in them, 22 in their last 11
starts and will get chances. They were dismal when they let us down at
Chesterfield recently, but bounced back with two goals against another
releagtion haunted team in Oldham last weekend, only to be denied all
three points by a 90th minute penalty, after they had missed a spot kick
of their own which would have put them 3-1 up. Anyway, win or lose, Wycombe Wanderers look attractively priced at 6.0 to claim the three points they so desperately need.
LEAGUE 1: CHESTERFIELD- ROCHDALE
PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS
LEAGUE 1 : EXETER CITY- WALSALL
PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS
| 18 | | Oldham Athletic | 43 | 13 | 10 | 20 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 49 | XLLL | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 40 | |
| 19 | | Walsall | 43 | 9 | 19 | 15 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 46 | LLWX | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 21 | 26 | |
| 20 | | Leyton Orient | 43 | 12 | 10 | 21 | 43 | 70 | -27 | 46 | LLLL | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 31 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 39 | |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | 21 | | Wycombe Wanderers | 43 | 11 | 10 | 22 | 61 | 80 | -19 | 43 | XLXX | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 34 | 34 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 46 |
| 22 | 1 | Chesterfield | 43 | 9 | 12 | 22 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 39 | WWLL | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 29 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 45 |
| 23 | 1 | Exeter City | 43 | 9 | 11 | 23 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 38 | LWLX | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 42 |
| 24 | | Rochdale | 43 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 44 | 75 | -31 | 38 | WLLX | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 29 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 38 |
LEAGUE 2 : AFC WIMBLEDON - TORQUAY UNITED
 | 1 | | Swindon Town | 43 | 28 | 5 | 10 | 69 | 29 | +40 | 89 | LWWW | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 8 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 21 |
| 2 | 1 | Shrewsbury Town | 43 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 63 | 37 | +26 | 84 | WWWW | 22 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 36 | 12 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 25 |
| 3 | 1 | Crawley Town | 43 | 22 | 14 | 7 | 74 | 50 | +24 | 80 | WXWX | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 47 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 27 | 28 |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | 4 | 2 | Torquay United | 43 | 23 | 11 | 9 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 80 | OXWW | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 22 |
| 5 | | Southend United | 43 | 22 | 8 | 13 | 70 | 48 | +22 | 74 | OWLW | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 18 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 30 |
We are down to four teams battling
for the two remaining automatic promotion spots and with a playoff spot
already assured, there is no point in anyone leaving anything out on
the pitch, there is nothing to lose and everything to gain from going all out for maximum points. Torquay are
the minnows of the bunch, being easily the smallest club near the top of
the table and almost certainly with the lowest playing budget. But they
have performed best of these in 2012, collecting 45 points from 22
starts since the turn of the year, Crawley Town with 31 and Southend
United with two points less, have fallen off the pace slowly, but surely
in the second half of the campaign and are stumbling over the finishing
line, although Crawley might just have found some form just in time, with
seven points from three starts, but with those two wins coming against teams in the
bottom five, they have not beaten much !
Torquay boss Martin Ling has targeted nine points from their remaining games, they might not need three wins, but it is good to know that United feel they do. Much of their fantastic run has to go down to keeping a very settled starting eleven, six of the players have started 44 + games in all competitions and four others have 35 + starts, which is incredible, similar story today, Ling must choose ( his only selection problem) between Ian Morris who returns from suspension and Ryan Jarvis for the starting role alongside Howe and Stevens upfront and as the coach explained "whomever doesn't start will be a superb sub to have". The 4-3-3/ 4-3-2-1 has worked terrifically well for United and they have not looked back since switching from 4-4-2 at the end of October.
Hosts have had a solid enough start to League 2 life after promotion last season, but boss Terry Brown, who has been sick this week and missed training,knows this group of players are not strong enough to mount a promotion challenge, he and his management team are already looking to bring in new recruits for next season and now that survival is guaranteed will be looking to rotate his squad over the last three games and look at all his options. Brown said "some of the players on the periphery who are playing for contracts I would like to give run-outs to. I would like to look at other players, but it is proving more difficult than I envisaged because we do not want to end the season with a run of defeats. I am not saying that because we are playing the youngsters that would definitely happen, it is for them to prove otherwise if they play ". Hosts have not won in four, just once in seven and have underperformed against the better teams, being without a win in 13 starts against top 8 sides. Plenty of United fans making the very long journey up and they have sold their full allocation of tickets for the game, I expect them to be going home in bouyant mood.1.5 units Torquay United -0.5 ball 2.12 asian line.
Sent Friday 13.52 UK time ....
Torquay boss Martin Ling has targeted nine points from their remaining games, they might not need three wins, but it is good to know that United feel they do. Much of their fantastic run has to go down to keeping a very settled starting eleven, six of the players have started 44 + games in all competitions and four others have 35 + starts, which is incredible, similar story today, Ling must choose ( his only selection problem) between Ian Morris who returns from suspension and Ryan Jarvis for the starting role alongside Howe and Stevens upfront and as the coach explained "whomever doesn't start will be a superb sub to have". The 4-3-3/ 4-3-2-1 has worked terrifically well for United and they have not looked back since switching from 4-4-2 at the end of October.
Hosts have had a solid enough start to League 2 life after promotion last season, but boss Terry Brown, who has been sick this week and missed training,knows this group of players are not strong enough to mount a promotion challenge, he and his management team are already looking to bring in new recruits for next season and now that survival is guaranteed will be looking to rotate his squad over the last three games and look at all his options. Brown said "some of the players on the periphery who are playing for contracts I would like to give run-outs to. I would like to look at other players, but it is proving more difficult than I envisaged because we do not want to end the season with a run of defeats. I am not saying that because we are playing the youngsters that would definitely happen, it is for them to prove otherwise if they play ". Hosts have not won in four, just once in seven and have underperformed against the better teams, being without a win in 13 starts against top 8 sides. Plenty of United fans making the very long journey up and they have sold their full allocation of tickets for the game, I expect them to be going home in bouyant mood.1.5 units Torquay United -0.5 ball 2.12 asian line.
Sent Friday 13.52 UK time ....
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH: WOKING- TRURO CITY
Woking -1.25 ball 1.83 asian handicap is likely to disappear quickly and you might even be able to trade out pre kick off / shortly for a profit. Now trading @ -1.5 ball 1.74
REST OF THE NOTES ARE RESTRICTED.
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
No comments:
Post a Comment