WEDNESDAY NOTES ....

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 14TH

Wins for Oldham Athletic and Internazionale at very nice odds, steadied the ship after a poor weekend and after taking Monday "off", that was a promising way to start the new week.

Four selections today, including two very strong ideas in the Europa League.

Going to start with the Thursday morning ( for those of us in Europe) kick off between Al-Sadd this year's AFC Champions League winners and Barcelona, far and away the best club side in world football, in the "semi final" of the Club World Cup, which this year returns to Japan after the UAE played host the last two years.

Barce need no introduction, so let's start with a few words about Al- Sadd, they are certainly no lightweights, or shrinking violets and have a big physical presence, being renamed "Al Badd" by the South Korean media after a hugely controversial, which is a bit of an understatement, two legged semi final with Suwon Samsung Bluewings in the AFC Champions League. They then had to return to Korea for the final, with all the baggage and media attention hanging over them from the earlier game and showed huge courage to beat Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors on penalties, in front of a very noisy and huge home crowd. The South Korean clubs had dominated the competition in recent seasons, something we discussed earlier in the year and for Al-Sadd to beat not one, but two of them, including the domestic champions in the final on home soil, tells you all you need to know about the mental fortitude of the team from Qatar. They are match fit after beating Espérance in the "quarter finals" and have a lot of experience in their ranks with Kader Keita ( 60 caps Ivory Coast), Marmadou Niang ( 50 games for Senegal) and Nadir Belhadj ( 50 + appearances for Algeria) all well known to european audiences, Lee Jung-Soo has played over 50 times for South Korea and all the others are Qatari internationals.

Of course, they have not met the like of Barcelona before and if the Catalan giants put their best foot forward, they can probably win this with ease. They have taken a squad of 23 players to Japan, all the big names are there and we are sure to see each in action, if not in this game, then in the final against Santos or Kashiwa Reysol. Barce got the result they craved in Madrid at the weekend and that will have hugely lifted the mood on the very long flight over, all were given one "day off ", but like their training day, with it came a lot of calls from the media and PR work. We talked about this in the summer, when Barce went to the US, there is huge demand on them, as a club and world champions to "get out there" and be seen and they take these responsibilities seriously, it has a big payback of course, especially in huge still untapped markets like Asia and the USA, but it is time consuming.

When Barce last played in this competition in 2009, they opened with a 3-1 win over Atlante of Mexico, their opponents led for over half an hour and it was only half way through the second half that they really got on top and then they relaxed and eased off a little. Messi only played the final 35 minutes btw. This whole competition is a PR event, of course, Barcelona will want to win and we could see the best of them in the final if they face Santos, but it doesn't really help anyone if they come an embarrass the "minnows", especially with Qatar ( at least at the moment) due to host a World Cup and looking to raise their profile at every opportunity. That is kind of a cynical view I guess, but even if that is not the case and Barcelona look to score as many as possible, after their biggest game of the season on saturday, a 14 hour flight and a couple of days with jet lag and the media following them everywhere, I think they will struggle to notch four against such a professional, physical opponent, far more used to the surroundings and I have to take Al- Sadd and that huge handicap start. Al-Sadd +3 goals 2.19 asian line.

There are three bets that I like in the Europa League, I am not going to spend a huge amount of time talking about the matches, they are all ......... rest of the notes are restricted.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

The weather is going to play a huge role in the UK domestic games today, there is heavy rain and more importantly high winds all over England, they battered Scotland at the weekend and have now moved South and even in the South East, which normally misses out on the worst of this kind of weather, it is very nasty and certainly not condusive to playing football.

The FA Cup ties at Yeovil, Walsall, Grimsby and especially Oldham, which is regarded as the coldest and most exposed ground in the country, at least to lower league football fans and is not called " Ice Station Zebra" without good reason, are likely to be very hard hit, but probably more of that later in the day.

For most neutrals, Chelsea's win over Manchester City was a good result for the title race and it puts Roberto Mancini and his team under increased pressure ahead of the visit from the Gunners on Sunday. That pressure will be cranked up, if Manchester United win at QPR and/or Chelsea at Wigan on saturday. Three points for United would take them back to the top of the table and give City players something to ponder when they go for their saturday night curry !

I really hope that happens, not just because as an "old school" Brentford fan, I still consider QPR as my club's real rival, but I really want to see how City react under real pressure. Very interesting weekend in prospect.

The photagraph is of Boundary Park , Oldham in high summer, which is "kind" of a joke, but if you have spent a midweek night there in December-February, you will not be laughing ! I do admit to being a "southern softie" though and keep my shirt on at all times whilst watching the beautiful game !

Back later.

SUNDAY MORNING BLUES ....

I did not have a good day at all yesterday, poor results and frozen to the core watching a game where I was on the away team and had to sit surrounded by delirious home supporters !

I would like to say that I was unlucky, but that was not really the case, Scunthorpe United led for an hour and had two chances late to win the game before that late, late Carlisle winner, but it would have been an injustice and it has to go down as "one of those days".

Brentford won at Griffin Park, which is rare this season and always cause for celebration, at least in my household ! The Bees are now in the top six, but trail the five clubs above them by six points and you can argue that they are the five biggest, or five of the six biggest clubs in the division, so Brentford are going to have to cling on to their coattails for the time being and try to put some pressure on them in the New Year, when I do expect the Bees to improve......... All I want for Christmas is a kindly Championship side to lend us a promising young striker !

Back later.

SATURDAY ..... THE HOLIDAY SEASON STARTS HERE ....

I discussed seven of today's matches in my daily notes, putting up three selections and one is reproduced below. This is an important stage of the season for so many teams, the crowded holiday fixtures are fast approaching and they are always regarded as key for every club, but I feel these matches just before are of , at least, equal importance, as they set the tone for the busy fortnight ahead, when there is little time to do anything other than play and recover.

Manchester City will get a real examination of their title aspirations in the next eight days, going to Stamford Bridge on Monday and then hosting the Gunners next Sunday. If they slip up, Tottenham Hotspur might be one the biggest beneficiaries and continue their run towards the top with an "easy" run of fixtures in the next month. I highlighted their mid season fixture list a few weeks back and suggested that 2.50 to claim a top four spot looked big and a price that you could definitely trade out for a profit short term and they are now a general 1.40 .

Aside from hosting Chelsea in 12 days time, seven of their next eight fixtures come against teams outside the top 7, with an average league position of 13th, so if you favour them to win at the Britannia Stadium tomorrow, the 18-1 for them to win the title could also halve very quickly, however hard it might be to envisage them as eventual champions.

In La Liga tonight we have El Clasico with Real Madrid hosting Barcelona, a match half the world will be watching. The boot is on the other foot this time round, with Barce not daring to lose this match, in recent seasons it has been Real coming into the game in that situation and seemingly unable to play their normal game. This time round the hosts will still have a lead ( game in hand) at the top of the table, regardless of what happens tonight and that takes off much of the pressure IMO, last season, even at the Bernabeu, Jose Mourinho was too cautious to really go after Barce, but he learned from the numerous meetings since that frightful 5-0 loss in November 2010 and in six h2h games this year, they been very competitive in all bar one. I hope JM throws off the shackles tonight and goes for it, Barcelona have looked vunerable on the road this season and their only two domestic wins have come at Gijon and Granada, both by the minimal margin. However, we all know that they if the visitors have "one of those nights" then no team can live them. This is one game I am happy to watch without a financial interest, but if you pushed me to pick, it would have to be Real off level ball.

In League 1 with the Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United fixture, the visitors sit eleven places and the same number of points ahead of their hosts, but I do not feel that is the a true reflection of their ability and I certainly expect that gap to close, maybe even turn around before the end of the season. Scunny and boss Alan Knill have had a very tough time of things injury wise , they have really struggled for consistency, at times being woeful, like in most of their last five games, at others, like in the four matches before that sequence when they drew at Brentford and MK Dons and played two strong teams Tranmere Rovers ( 4-2) and Huddersfield Town ( 2-2) off the park here at Glanford Park, they should have been the team to end the Terriers record breaking unbeaten run, but missed not one, but two penalties in that game ! Carlisle have not scored in four road starts against League 1 teams, but as two of those came at league leaders Charlton Athletic ( one in the FA Cup), I suppose we can cut them a little slack, but goals are a problem for the visitors and the mood amongst supporters of the club is poor, especially for a club on the playoff fringes and they are hyper critical of boss Greg Abbott and especially his negative tactics and team selection, this is another club desperately trying to add a striker asap, but one operating on a very tight budget.

Scunthorpe have had the most attempts on goal on any League 1 team this season ( 251) and the highest number on target ( 136), they have also been denied by the woodwork a division high eight times, which, when you add in the missed penalties, it doesn't take a genius to work out that they could/should be much higher up the league.They have targeted today as a must win fixture and I believe they will have benefitted from the 13 day break, that has enabled them to clear the treatment room slightly and put in a lot of work on the practice ground. I understand that this has gone really well and coach Knill has focused on his team keeping their shape, something that has been a problem with several youngsters and loanees coming into the squad and also working on pressing when his side lose possession

Jimmy Ryan, Jordan Robertson, Sam Togwell and Andrew Wright all return today, Cliff Byrne is also a possible and the hugely talented Damien Moziaka probably needs one more week on the sidelines, but his return to training has been a huge boost and now at least, there is real competition for starting places.Hosts have three of their next four starts at Glanford Park and this is a real and probably last chance to kick start their season, they have a terrific record in this series and are considered Carlisle's bogey yeam, with a 6-0-1 record here and 6-1-1 in the reverse fixture. I like their chances of adding to that today. I almost forgot, after taking training last saturday morning ( no game remember) Knill then drove personally to London to watch Carlisle play at Charlton in the cup, he could have sent a coach or scout, so that shows how importantly he views this game, either that or he didn't want to go home to his wife ! Scunthorpe United -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

EUROPA LEAGUE COMES TO MANCHESTER ....

We are still coming to terms with Manchester City as a major force in european football and they played in the Europa League last season, so it comes as less of a shock to see them in europe's "other" competition. However, for the red half of Manchester, it is more a case of an embarrassment which has to be endured and an encumbrance which will hang around their necks like a yoke of shame for the rest of the season.

United have played for four months with no protection for their back line , I first raised this and was laughed at for doing so, when United beat Tottenham 3-0 and Arsenal 8-2 early season, but it was clear even then, that it would cause them major problems and a series of recent cleansheets against "weaker" opposition, merely papered over the cracks and long term, this painful elimination from the Champions League might turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as Sir Alex will now surely make a quality holding midfielder ( or two) a priority in the transfer window. Every cloud has a silver lining and United will not have to worry about any new signings being eligible for the Champions League !

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

I only covered three Champions League matches in my daily notes this week, Marseille and Chelsea both won yesterday and I sent my preview of the Dinamo Zagreb- Olympique Lyonnais, out yesterday by email and posted it today on the blog and wrote ....

I make the "over" a solid bet and given Lyon's need for goals and if they can get a couple early, it might increase the pressure on Ajax, allied to the potential mental let down for Dinamo, who go on their winter break after this fixture, the score could really be anything here and over 4.5 goals at circa 7.0 + ( 7.40 on exchanges) and/ or "over" 5.5 goals at 17.0 + ( 17.5 exchanges) might also carry a tiny investment from me, 2-4, 2-5, 1-5 something like that is far from impossible and one of those is available at 200-1. For my main bet, a more cautious 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line.

THE RESULT .....

THE "OVER" 2.5 GOALS 2.03 LANDED INSIDE 47 MINUTES.

THE "OVER" 4.5 GOALS 7.40 LANDED INSIDE 52 MINUTES.

THE "OVER" 5.5 GOALS 17.0 LANDED INSIDE 64 MINUTES.

LYON WON 7-1 !

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

UPDATE .....

Just to advise that because of the Christmas and New Year emails, which you should all have been advised about ( deadline to sign up 09.00 Friday). There will not be any "freebie" emails until after January 9th.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .....

I discussed two Champions League games in my notes yesterday, just two btw, they are reproduced below. Both Marseille and Chelsea won, but it is the OM match that I would like to discuss. This was a golden opportunity to win decent money on a single fixture.

If you read my match preview you will know what each team was looking for and when the Dortmund players and coaching staff went back to the dressing room at half time and saw that Olympiakos were 2-0 up, they knew that any dreams of further progression were over. For Marseille, who had pulled a goal back just before the break to trail 2-1, they knew that a win and only a win would see them claim that all important second spot in the group. How is each team going to approach the second half ? Who has everything to play for and all the motivation in the world ? Which team already has one, maybe both eyes on a vital Bundesliga game at the weekend ? The goals came late for OM, but they came and whenever they come , they count and the visitors were never going to give up trying.

You have to try and think about how matches are likely to play out and much of this, is as much about a mental state of mind , as the physical situation. As I am fond of saying, 90% of all sport is played between the ears and getting a team/player onto the field of play, with the right mental approach is absolutely key.

Most people can't be bothered to do the research, even if you present them with all the facts, they are still too lazy to take a minute or two to read them and think about the match/event. To be blunt, that is idiotic IMO, if you are betting for fun/entertainment then fine, if you do not really care if you win or lose and only regard money spent on sports betting as the same as night out at the pub/ restaurant/ cinema, that is your choice and you are no different from the 96% of the betting public who do likewise.

We are back to that hard work ethic here, to make money sports betting you have to work hard and even if you get some help along the way sometimes ( my daily notes ?), you still have to read them and think about your bets.

I have one Champions League selection for today, which I sent my regular readers yesterday afternoon, it is also reproduced, at the foot of this post. It might win, it may not, to be honest it doesn't overly matter to me personally, as I know that I will win, if not today, then tomorrow, next month, or the one after , long term I always do, because I work harder at it than anyone else I know.

Here endeth the sermon for the day !

Good Luck.

TUESDAY DECEMBER 6TH

I am going to start in the Champions League and the very "odd" fixture between Borussia Dortmund and Olympique Marseille. Hosts have to win by four or more and hope that Arsenal , who have already won the group and travel without several key players and with a massive domestic holiday campaign on the horizon, get something in Greece against Olympiakos, who are desperate for the three points. There is very little chance of that scenario happening and also, IMO, the worst case scenario for Borussia is that the Gunners win and they narrowly defeat OM and find themselves in the Europa League. The Bundesliga title race looks sure to go down to the wire, as will the battle for CL spots for next season and any further european involvement this time round, in anything other than the premier competition will surely be seen as an unwanted distraction. Dortmund are without Bender, Schmelzer, Subotic and both Leitner and Kehl are doubts and coach Jurgen Klopp is going to make a late decision about what kind of starting eleven he puts out.

I like OM as a side and feel, as I have said many times before, that they are ideally set up to play on the road, where they do not have to make the running. They can afford to lose this game by a narrow margin if Arsenal beat Olympiakos and will also be without a couple of important players, but the difference with them is twofold, one they can win and all other calulations are irrelevant, so at least they are in control of their own destiny and secondly they are a huge price to win (5.0 +) and we can always take a chance, against what might be a leseer motivated opponent at those kind of odds. Marseille to win 5.30 exchanges, there is some 5.50 in places.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea entertain Valencia, the Blues will progress with a win or 0-0 draw, but a 1-1 scoreline will see them lose out and already ten points adrift of Manchester City in the title race, the prospect of Europa League football is going to be very hard to swallow for owner Roman Abramovich and will massively increase pressure on coach Andre Villas-Boas . Chelsea do not do too many 0-0 draws and even if this match was heading that way with 20 minutes to go, Valencia would have to open up and look for a goal, which will open up the game and space at the back for the blues to exploit. I expect AVB to stick to his attacking principles, that is why he was bought to the club, not only to bring success, but to do so with some style. In the reverse fixture at the Mestalla, which finished 1-1, Chelsea were coasting, before gifting the hosts a penalty, they created the better chances ( ten on target, a massive number on the road in europe against quality opposition) and it was an awkward fixture for Juan Mata, who had only left Valencia the previous month. Having come to London, to further his career ( as well as the money), he will be desperate not to lose out to his former club and all the spanish players in the home squad tonight will surely be busting a gut to progress. Chelsea usually step up in these must win fixtures at the Bridge and I take them to win and to do so with a touch of class. Chelsea -0.75 ball 2.0 asian line.

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 7TH

I am going to stick with just the one Champions League match, the tie between Dinamo Zagreb and Olympique Lyonnais. The visitors look to have blown their chance to progress out of the group stage by failing to beat Ajax in France on Matchday 5, now they need to win this, combined with a Real Madrid win in Amsterdam, with a seven goal swing somewhere along the line. That would have been at least a possibility had Real something to play for, but they do not and a handful of their big name players have not even travelled to the Netherlands.

However, a chance is a chance and should Lyon take the lead and then hear from Amsterdam that Madrid are ahead, it will then be "game on ". At the same time that Lyon were toiling against Ajax, Real were thumping Dinamo 6-2 in the Bernabeu, they were 4-0 up inside 20 minutes and could probably have scored eight or more if they had really pushed things, that should at least give Lyon encouragement. Dinamo scored their two goals late on and gave their fans in the stadium something to cheer. If the hosts approach this match in a similar frame of mind, we should at least see some entertaining open football and I think one goal will throw this match wide open, almost regardless of what is happening in the other group game. I make the "over" a solid bet and given Lyon's need for goals and if they can get a couple early, it might increase the pressure on Ajax, allied to the potential mental let down for Dinamo, who go on their winter break after this fixture, the score could really be anything here and over 4.5 goals at circa 7.0 + ( 7.40 on exchanges) and/ or "over" 5.5 goals at 17.0 + ( 17.5 exchanges) might also carry a tiny investment from me, 2-4, 2-5, 1-5 something like that is far from impossible and one of those is available at 200-1. For my main bet, a more cautious 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ...

Osasuna found a late, late winner at home to Betis on Sunday. After dominating much of the first half they went into the break ahead 1-0, but then seemed content to sit on their lead and invited the visitors to take the intiative. Real equalised and spurned a couple of good chances to edge ahead with the hosts defending far too deep, before Osasuna found that dramatic late winner. It was fortunate, but we were due a late goal our way and I will try to remember this match the next time things go against me/us ! Only joking ! Of course, I won't recall this game, it is only the bad beats that gamblers remember !

I am coming off a VERY good week, with some good priced winners and a huge ROI in the last seven days and I am particularly proud of the two NFL winners over the weekend. Many people think that football is my best sport and that is true I suppose, it is my bread and butter and you can see how consistent I have been across all markets on here over the last five years + of posting on the blog. LINK.

However, my best returns, albeit from far fewer bets of course, come from the NFL, WTA and USPGA tours. My strike rate on american football over the last 15 years or so is staggering to be honest. Anyway, I digress, there is kind of a moral to this story.

Every August, once the UK domestic football season has, or is about to start, I turn my attention to the NFL and spend all my "spare" time for two or three weeks focused on that sport. I watch a little pre season, re read my notes from the previous year and watch highlights, read everything I can about what has happened during the off season . This year I did not have time and the situation was further complicated by the "lock out". I told myself that I had a good handle on things and that I would pick everything else up through the opening week or two.

Well, that didn't work out and I was angry with myself, not that I hadn't done the work, I seriously didn't have the time, but because I had tried to bet without doing my homework. I did not back a lot of losers, but they came in a sport where I normally win and the difference between, three or four losers, as opposed to the same number of winners is big at the end of the season. So I stopped for a few weeks, it was tough because I love the games so much, but over those weeks I watched around 40-50 hours of highlights from the opening weeks and worked really hard. What happened ? I returned to NFL betting on Thanksgiving Day and went three from three and have an 83% strike rate since that day, of course, that is a short sample, but it is not a coincidence. There are no shorts cuts in doing this ( sports betting), it is a job like any other, but hard work is almost always rewarded and as the saying goes, "the harder I work, the luckier I get".

Looking at those 5-6 years of stats I linked to earlier, you will see through the first two years I posted circa 1,000 units on the blog, around 500 through the next two and 225 units in 2010. Returns were fantastic over all five years, in 2012 I am probably going to break even from an even lower turnover.

I think it is worthwhile talking about this. With far fewer bets, I will probably have posted just 12% of my turnover from 2007 come the end of this month, variance is always likely to raise it's ugly head. Therefore, whereas four years ago I was posting virtually all of my selections on here, now it is just one in eight or nine and NEVER my strongest picks.

Over the long term and I am talking months and months, not weeks, that shouldn't make a huge amount of difference and I still feel that there is a lot to take from each preview posted. But with regard to results, it is kind of pot luck, I might put up eight selections over the weekend, seven could win, but the one I post on here lose, of course, the exact opposite could also be true.

My personal turnover is little changed from 2007, the only difference is the number of these matches/ events posted on the blog and the reasons behind this have been well documented previously.

I have previewed four matches in my daily notes today, two from the Champions League and a couple from the UK domestic football, with three red type selections and sent out copies to many of you this morning. Therefore, I will not be posting any on the blog today, but will definitely put a couple up before the end of the week. So please check back.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SUNDAY ...

Osasuna entertain Real Betis and I am always happy to back the hosts on home soil at odds against, facing all but the very strongest that La Liga has to offer, this season they are 3-3-0 and last season they were 7-6-1 as late as April, having lost only to Barcelona until then. Very few non top 4 teams have won here in the last three seasons and Betis, who have not win in nine certainly fall far short of that high level. The visitors will be without suspended captain Iriney and their coach Pepe Mel is under intense pressure and has supposedly been told that he is unlikely to remain in the job should Betis lose today. Mel is obviously low on confidence and openly stated that he believes he should be sacked, which is honest, but hardly the type of motivational speak you normally expect. Only Jonathan Pereira has scored for them in the last 561 minutes of football and they have only managed 3 goals in nine starts. Hosts are boosted by the return of several players including Jukka Raitala and Sergio Fernandez , which gives coach Jose Luis Mendilibar far more options today and I expect them to win. Osasuna -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line.

Into the NFL, we opposed the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day and they lost 27-15 to the Green Bay Packers, there was no shame in losing to the reigning Super Bowl champions, who are unbeaten this campaign, but they continually shot themselves in the foot with a number of costly penalties, one of which came courtesy of their star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who has since been suspended for two games and cannot play tonight, which is little short of a disaster against the very highly ranked New Orleans Saints offense. If that was bad ( and self inficted), they also suffered injuries to several other key players, not only might running back Kevin Smith miss out tonight and if he does play, it will be at less than 100%, but they have a treatment room full of "secondary" players, which means that Drew Brees will be able to almost throw at will to his receivers tonight. The Saints running game has been improving on a week by week basis which will keep the Lions "honest" and buoyed by a very impressive 49-24 defeat of the Giants last week and looking to retain their lead over Atlanta in the division and put some pressure on the 49ers for home field playoff advantage, I cannot see beyond a two touchdown win for New Orleans tonight. 1.5 units New Orleans Saints -9 points 2.03 Pinnacle/ Vegas Line.

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM THIS MORNING'S NOTES .....

SATURDAY DECEMBER 3RD

Very pleasing day yesterday, on the football front, our "suggestion" Olympique Marseille won 2-1 and both red type selections eased home, Racing Club Lens taking the lead inside the first minute and eventually winning 3-0 and the Bastia- Sedan game producing four goals.

The golf continues to go well, Lee Westwood is in a tie for second in the Nedbank Challenge and in a group of seven players who are "getting away" from the other five, he is now trading much lower for a top three place, but it is Tiger Woods who is
the icing on this week's cake at the moment, he leads the Chevron World Challenge by three strokes from KJ Choi and Matt Kuchar after taming the Sherwood course yesterday and is now trading at circa 1.57. The potential seven point payout here is huge as it equates to circa 6 or 7 standard winners and the option to trade out for a huge profit ( at around 1.61) on the exchanges is there, if you wish. Both original previews are reproduced below.

Four football selections in this email one each from the EPL, Ligue 1, Championship and FA Cup and I will also be looking at three ,maybe four of QPR- WBA, Wigan- Arsenal, Blackpool-Reading or West Ham United- Burnley "in running " today, starting with the "pre match notes" at 14.15 UK time and followed by the half time update at 15.50.

OK, straight into the action and I will start with in the EPL and the match up between struggling Blackburn Rovers and Swansea City. The pressure continues to mount on home boss Steve Kean, there will be further protests aimed at both him and also the owners today and after putting all his eggs into this particular basket, by resting several of his "stars" for the Carling Cup quarter final at Cardiff City in midweek, a 2-0 loss in that game, means surely that is last chance time for him today. I do feel that if Rovers are going to win a match, it will have to be today, they travel to Sunderland next, for what will be Martin O 'Neill's home debut after taking charge this week of the North East club and then go to both Liverpool and Manchester United over the holiday, so it looks a case of now or never. They are helped in this cause by the visitors being without defender Angel Rangel and almost certainly striker Danny Graham, with Leroy Lita waiting in the wings to replace him. Kean is also set to be boosted by a few more options today, with the return of Samba, Salgado and Olsson, those along with the players rested in midweek are at least going to freshen up a team which is scoring quite freely and certainly has goals in them, but one which is incapable of keeping a clean sheet. They have not managed one in 17 competitive starts this season and with a severe lack of pace wide at the back, the speedy Nathan Dyer and Scott Sinclair have the potential to make it another long afternoon for the Rovers backline and in midfield they will miss the suspended N'Zonzi. I feel Rovers might do enough to win, but hard to see them doing so without conceding and with Swansea adopting a far more open approach against teams of a similar standing and intent recently( 2-2 A Wolves, 3-1 H Bolton, 1-3 A Norwich and 3-0 H WBA), I have to go with the "over" 2.5 goal option at 2.04 asian handicap.

I appear to have "lost" my notes for the next three games, so am typing these on the "hoof", so please bear with me. In the FA Cup, Gateshead, who did us a big favour in the last round, entertain fellow Conference side Tamworth, in the wide open spaces of the International Stadium. The Tynsiders are looking to reach the 3rd round of the competition for the first time in over 50 years and are very motivated to do so, as you might expect, they have turned into a real cup team in recent seasons and get really up for these fixtures. Locally they have been "bigging" the match up as huge, for not just the club, but the town and they have "massive" support from the local community.

These two clubs met here two months ago and played out a 1-1 draw, but that doesn't tell the full story, Gateshead were totally dominant and leading 1-0 when they lost not one, but both central defenders inside 15 minutes, with one of the replacements giving away the penalty which allowed the visitors to equalise. Home boss Ian Bogie said afterwards "we were so far ahead in terms of ability in the first half that it was like a practice game and we should have been two or three up ".

Reading all this reminded me that I had watched extended highlights of their match here last season which The Heed won 3-1. The hosts ran Tamworth ragged for 90 minutes and made full use of the strange ( by Conference standards) big pitch and surroundings, they scored three, it could have been eight, the visitors had terrible trouble defending crosses as they were getting so stretched by the hosts out wide. The recent match sounds very similar and given the desire for Gateshead to progress and their current form ( they are unbeaten in seven) and dominance in recent h2h meetings, I have to go with the home win. Gateshead -0.5 ball 2.07 asian line.

In the Championship, we have discussed ...... the rest of the email is restricted to subscribers to the daily service, please contact me for details ... stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

BACK AT 14.15

written December 1st

The very prestigeous Nedbank Golf Challenge takes place at the Gary Player Country Club in Sun City and has seemingly attracted the usual quality 12 man field ,including three of the world's top four players, but half the field are without a win this year and/or lack experience, with only defending champion Lee Westwood and Anders Hansen returning from last year . Westwood coasted home by a stunning eight strokes in 2010, with Hansen 15 strokes adrift in a share of 9th place.

Key here is keep the ball in play off the tee and putt well, or at least avoid three putts, so a little course knowledge goes a very long way.

Westwood obviously has a great chance to repeat and his biggest rivals at first glance look to be world number one Luke Donald, number four Martin Kaymer and Masters champion Charl Schwartzel.

Donald's wife has just had their second child, he has not played golf for five weeks and his father died earlier this month, that is a roller coaster of a month, in addition to becoming world number one and winning both Money List's ! The only time he really undeperformed this year has been upon his return following a break and given all that and his decidely average record on the course, I have to let him pass.

Schwartzel is the only local golfer in the event and as such, will have massive support from the galleries, but is coming here following a very disappointing final day in the Omega Mission Hills World Cup, where he and partner Louis Oosthuizen, had a truly terrible sunday, when both played like amateurs and he has previously underperformed here, so, not for me.

Kaymer has very few peers in world golf on a going day and signalled a major return to form with a mindblowing final round of 63 to spreadeagle a world class field including seven of this week's rivals at the WGC-HSBC Champions event in Shanghai in early November and alongside partner Alex Cejka, tied for second in the World Cup on Sunday . However, he has never played here before and I have to feel that lack of experience might cost him this week and two trips to China inside a month, before arriving here, might also take their toll.

That leaves us with Westwood ,he hit 75% of greens and shot 21 birdies last year ,far and away the best in the field as you might imagine, he said that he likes his chances this week and proved his well being with a win in China last month, albeit against a weak field.

It is hard to see him out of contention and I will take him to finish in the top 25% of this 12 man line up. 1.5 units Lee Westwood top 3 finish 1.84 + on the exchanges, up to 1.87 offered.

This week Tiger Woods is hosting his own charitable event the Chevron World Challenge, from the Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California.

The event always attracts a high class field , but there is an argument this year that it is a little weaker than in 2010, with Luke Donald ,Rory McIlroy and several others, opting out. As you might expect, Tiger has a fine record here, winning four times, including three in four years between 2004-2007, he did not play in 08 or 09 , returning last year when he was in much worse shape than he currently appears and he lost out in a playoff to Graeme McDowell, the pair in turn four strokes clear of the field, under the circumstances, that was an incredible performance, even though he blew a big lead on the final day.

I very much doubt that we will ever see Woods dominate the game again, he is no longer feared by the other golfers and the younger players have only ever seen him struggle on the golf course, so that unbeatable "air" will never return, however, that doesn't mean that he cannot still win plenty of tournaments and you can argue that he is five strokes better here than anywhere else and I doubt any of this field can give him five shots on this golf course. His confidence is returning, he led the Australian Open late in the tournament and eventually finished third and played well tee to green all week in the Presidents Cup, also getting the putter going in the singles, where he took Aaron Baddeley to the cleaners ! He has only ever finished outside the top two here once in nine starts and the 1.88 for a top four finish on the exchanges looks very solid and I would not put anyone off going down that route, but I will be a little braver and take him to win..... 2 units Tiger Woods 4.50 exchanges/ 4.38 Pinnacle Sports.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

In the Championship this evening, Crystal Palace host Derby County in match where they will kick off just about 38 hours after returning from Old Trafford , where they recorded a famous extra time victory over Manchester United. Regardless of the team United put out and they still fielded eight internationals, that was a very hard earned win for Palace, who did a lot of chasing and boss Dougie Freedman will have to rotate his own squad this evening. County lost again at home to Brighton on Tuesday night, but that 24 hours longer recovery time could still prove key, however, having documented Derby's problems ahead of that game I am loathe to pull the trigger on them tonight, despite the fact that it was an improved performance against B&H.

In Ligue 1, Olympique Marseille travel to Caen, ahead of a key Champions League match in Dortmund next midweek, however, in many ways this game is of equal importance and having beaten bitter rivals PSG 3-0 last week, they will not want to undo all that hard work, especially as those points, have got them firmly back in, at leas,t the hunt for CL spots for next season. There has been a clear upturn in performance for OM at least in the Ligue recently and they have targeted four very win-able games in the lead up to Christamas to get them back in the title race and come looking for all three points this evening. They have a good record here ( three wins and a draw in the last four) and this is a fixture which normally produces goals with the last eight h2h meetings averaging 3.88 . The visitors arrive without Remy and Morel, but Andre-Pierre Gignac has apologised to Didier Deschamps after a bust up between the pair and returns to the squad. But it is the return to form of Morgan Amalfitano, who really impressed against PSG and the return last week of Stephane Mbia that give them the energy and flair to dominate the centre of the park and with the hugely experienced Gregory Leca missing out for the hosts and that is a big loss, I expect OM to push on and win this. They have an incredible record with Mbia in the team, only losing three of 43 Ligue 1 starts and his is the first namee you should look for on the team sheet. Caen have already lost three home starts and conceded eight in their last four matches, more look on the cards this evening. Marseille -0.5 ball 2.05 +.

I have a trio of matches to discuss briefly in Ligue 2, leaders Clermont travel to Angers, where they have not won in eight visits (0-3-5), they seem sure to be a little jaded after their top of the table battle with Reims on Monday and it might be difficult to get "up" for another tough game so quickly afterwards, Angers have scored two or more in 6 of the last 7 h2h meetings and might need to do so again to get a result against a team who have got the winning habit. I have seen Angers "over" 1.5 goals at circa 2.60 and if that had been freely available, I would probably have put that up as a selection, especially with Clermont playmaker Alessandrini missing out, but it is not, so I will pass, interesting game though.

Regular readers know that I like ................. the rest of the notes and my main selections of the day,are not available to blog readers, sorry, I am hoping to be able to post a couple of match previews both tomorrow and sunday on here, so please check back.

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

UPDATE ....

I have just sent the NFL update, please check your inbox.

Good Luck.

KING KENNY LOOKING TO KEEP TITLE RACE ALIVE ....

Highlight today is probably the match at Anfield between Liverpool and Manchester City, the visitors could open up a huge seven point lead at the top of the EPL with a win, but it might be tough for them to come out firing after the hugely disappointing loss at Napoli in midweek.

On the back of their last Champions League defeat at Bayern they went to Blackburn Rovers the following weekend and were very sluggish for the opening hour, that might seem strange as they won 4-0, but all the goals came late and Rovers lack of ambition and attacking intent, allowed City to ease their way into the game, they will not have that option today.

Three points for the Reds would signal them as a major player for a Champions League spot and King Kenny will have his troops well and truly fired up this afternoon. Liverpool were the last team to defeat City, back in April since when the visitors are unbeaten in 15, winning their last seven in the EPL, in the CL we have seen another side of them and the home side, who won that earlier meeting 3-0 with all the goals coming early, will have been avidly eyeing up the wide open spaces that Napoli and Bayern found wide at the back of the City defence.

King K, got his tactics spot on at Stamford bridge last week in a 2-1 win, with Bellamy, Rodriguez and Suarez really haressing the Chelsea defenders, he was then not afraid to change things around during the game and made two major tactical changes, the last of which resulted in the late winner. Hosts are unbeaten in nine starts in all competitions and eyecatchingly in eight starts under Mr Liverpool, against City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea, fixtures for which Dalgleish lives for. Interesting to see if he uses Andy Carroll today, who scored two of the goals here in April, he will certainly be an option from the bench. Home win for me . Liverpool -0.25 ball 2.33 + asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY NOTES ..... GIVING THANKS !

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 25TH

Let me start by giving thanks for Thanksgiving Day ! The Green Bay Packers won 27-12, Miami Dolphins comfortably held onto their 7 point handicap advantage and actually led until the last second of the game ( losing 19-20) and the Ravens saw off the 49ers 16-6, it was also fantastic to wake up this morning and find that John Senden had shot a low round of the tournament 64 to move up seventy places and into a share of 4th place (top ten selection) at the Australian PGA.

I have four matches to discuss today, but am personally keeping stakes on the small side, tomorrow and Sunday for that matter look to offer fantastic betting opportunities and I am planning two maximum ( two point selections), so want to keep most of my ammunition for then.

Before we get into today's action, for any poker players amongst you and I know that there are quite a few, Poker Tube have put up footage of the kickboxing match between Lex Veldhuis and Bertrand "Elky" Grospellier LINK , which is actually better than these events usually are, although there was only going to be one winner.

Let's start in Serie A where AS Roma travel to the Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese.The hosts had the chance to go top of the table last weekend, but underperformed in a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Parma, that was their third defeat in six starts in all competitions, although they remain a perfect 5-0-0 here in the league. They have another chance to to lead Serie A tonight, if only for 24 hours, facing a Roma side who are breathing down their neck in the table, one place back, albeit four points adrift, in 5th spot, the visitors will be equally as motivated not to let that gap to the top four increase and are finally starting to perform under Luis Enrique. In their five starts since the rather unlucky derby loss to Lazio, they have won three and suffered two very unfortunate losses, where they pretty much dominated most of the play, I detailed those ahead of the 2-0 win at Novara ( see below). They are without Francesco Totti tonight, but deep down I suspect Enrique is not too disappointed about that, his side seen to play better without Mr Roma nowadays and it is very tough to leave him out, so no decision to make is a "bonus". Roma have a fine record in the stadium, winning on four from six visits in Serie A, with five of those also going "over", they have scored in each of their last ten visits, notching three of more on four occasions.

Hosts like to play 3-5-2 and whilst Antonio Di Natale, who looks to be heading for a third straight domestic golden boot award, claims most of the headlines, it is the wingback pairing of Isla and Armero who work tirelessly up and down the flanks who really make them tick, if Roma can stifle most of this threat and Enrique is starting to see the fruition of the work he has done defensively in recent starts, they can get at the very least a share of the spoils tonight. AS Roma + 0.25 ball 1.97 asian line.

We discussed Port Vale's offensive problems briefly on Tuesday ( again, see below), when they lost 1-0 to Grimsby Town, as indicated then, I expect that match was given low priority, but the previous three starts were not and it is now heading for 400 minutes since they last hit the back of the net and these runs have a habit of getting under team's skin and are very difficult to shake off. Home boss Micky Adams has been a very busy man since the game against the Mariners and has brought in three players on loan, the Steveage duo of Guy Madjo and Jennison Myrie-Williams, plus Shane O'Connor from Ipswich Town. I am sure that they will do a job for Vale, but they will not have had time to train with the other players, who not only got back from Grimsby ( it is a long cross country journey) in the early hours of Wednesday morning, but were then ordered by Adams to be at training at 09.00 for not a single, but double training session ! I understand he wants to get a point across, but with another match less than 72 hours later and this, their third start in just six days, that seems madness ! If Vale cannot score, Torquay United cannot stop ! They have won five in a row, scoring 15 goals, with three or more in four of those, they are unbeaten in three visits to Vale Park, winning two and scoring two or more in each. Mood inside their camp is sky high and boss Martin Ling has got them buzzing after a slow start to their season. Torquay United level ball 2.0 + asian line.

In Ligue 2 in France, Guingamp could hardly .......the rest of my notes are censored, my two strongest "red type" selections today are for email readers only , sorry .

Good Luck.

Written November 5 :NOVARA- AS ROMA

Roma have slipped down to 13th place in Serie A on the back of two very unlucky defeats, first away to Genoa where they had 68% possession and won the attempts on goal count 17-9 and then at home to Milan (57% and 23-15) where visiting keeper Christian Abbiati was in inspired form and on another night, i Giallorossi would have scored five ! Despite their lowly position, they are only eight points behind leaders Juventus, but cannot afford to lose any further ground to them, or the rest of the chasing pack, therefore, the three points on offer this evening are absolutely essential. Roma coach Luis Enrique says his side are struggling to deal with set plays and have too little pace to trouble top defences, well, the first he should be able to deal with and the second shouldn't be too much of a problem here, as they are not facing one ! Novara are without a cleansheet in ten starts, or a win in six and look booked for a long season of struggle, in this, their first season in the top flight for 55 years. Roma simply have to win this, otherwise Enrique's excuses are going to fall on very deaf ears and with Lazio already in the top three, playing european football and having won the derby game, the maroon half of the Eternal City are not going to be happy. If they play half as well as they did against Genoa they should ease home. 1.5 units AS Roma -0.5 ball 2.05 +

Written November 22 :In the FA Cup replays, League 2 Port Vale travel to Conference side Grimsby Town really struggling for goals, they have not scored in 298 minutes and are missing four offensive players in Mark Richards ( top scorer), Ben Williamson, Lewis Haldane and Andrew Little. The visitors also have big doubts about key players Lee Collins and Doug Loft and coach Micky Adams has already indicated that he has one eye on FRIDAY'S league match against Torquay, that will be their third start in six days and is a more important fixture for the club who desperately crave promotion. Grimsby on a cold midweek night is not the easiest place to go and get a result and Vale will be in for a real battle and might not be up for that. Grimsby Town +0.25 ball 2.0 asian line.

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES .....

A very quiet day in this part of the world, but it is very much the quiet before the storm, as we are back to normal over the weekend and I for one, will be glad to see the back of international football for the time being.

There are two quarter finals of the Copa Bridgestone Sudamaricana tonight, no bet for me, but a few words about the Libertad- LDU Quito fixture. Where the hosts trail 1-0 from the first leg, very few teams come away from the Ecuadorian capital with too much, but the Paraguayan champions will be kicking themselves that they conceded an injury time goal, after giving as good as they got for 90 minutes and having the better of the early chances.

It was even more galling as the goal came courtesy of a mis hit cross which sailed over the stranded keeper. I am a little surprised that Libertad were backed overnight from -0.5 1.97 down to 1.82, that now seems very short against a team with as much international experience and success as LDU, especially given that five of the home squad played for Paraguay at Chile on Monday night, one was on the bench, but four started and the three midfielders ( Aquino, Ayala, Samudio) played all 90 minutes, which was a huge blow to the Libertad coach, who has made his feelings known. Obviously each and everyone of these is a key player for the hosts.

Surprisingly, just two members of the LDU team were called up for Ecuador's home game with Peru, which was played in Quito and neither left the bench, so a clear advantage in that respect to the visitors tonight. These are two strong home teams, but Libertad have been done no favours by their own FA and the scheduling of this competition so close to the International fixtures. As I type, the line is now moving back the other way and the bigger quotes for LDU being taken, which makes much more sense. Anyway, no bet for me.

The NFL scheduler has also given a quick turnaround to the New York Jets and Broncos who meet in Denver tonight. The Jets will probably welcome such a quick return to action after losing what could turn out to be a divisional decider to the Patriots at the Meadowlands on Sunday, they were poor with a capital P in that game, quarterback Mark Sanchez had a very bad day at the office and coach Rex Ryan tried to boost his player's confidence by saying that the team have to give him more protection, instead of overly criticising Sanchez, which is good man management. The Jets now trail the Pats by a game and cannot afford to lose this one. Denver coach John Fox has recently bowed to pressure, benching quarterback Kyle Orton in favour of Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, who has posted three wins from four starts, but don't believe the bottom line, Tebow is far from the finished article and has looked way short of NFL standard at times in those games.

He is a fine athlete and his running skills can get him out of trouble, but that can only go on so long. He threw just 8 passes in the 17-10 win at Kansas over the weekend, completing just two ( admittedly one was for a touchdown), but with the injuries to Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee, the Broncos now have very few options on the ground, so Tebow will have to throw more and that spells DANGER. They tried this two games back in a 45-10 thumping by the Detroit Lions and Tebow spent more time on the ground than on two feet. He completed 18 of 39 attempts, was sacked seven times and turned the ball over seven times. Knowing that he will have to throw more again tonight the Jets must be licking their lips in anticipation and they would be my pick giving up the points, but I am saving my real ammunition for the weeeknd. NY Jets -6 points 2.02 Pinnacle/ Vegas line.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

FROM FRIDAY/SATURDAY NOTES.....

I want to say a few words about the Preston North End- Southend United game. I still feel that when everyone is fit, the hosts are a very good League 1 team, but they have had a terrible time with injuries and to lose Hume, Mellor and Proctor all at the same time has been a disaster, it is hard to play 4-3-3, when your front three are all missing ! North End defend from the front and these three put so much pressure on opponents that the system breaks down when they are absent. Phil Brown is further restricted today as on loan Jonathan Forte has been refused permission to play by Southampton. Confidence is a wonderful thing, but Preston who had it in spades two months ago, have now lost their's and are now without a win inside 90 minutes in nine starts and have conceded 27 goals in their last ten outings. United are full of confidence, riding high at the top of League 2, unbeaten in 12 with eleven wins, including six on the road, the last three without conceding. So, what do I think ? PNE will be much better in a couple of weeks and a team to follow when at least two of the big three are back, for now, United look big at circa 3.75.

I want to get one saturday selection out of the way early, so let's start today with that and it is the FA Cup tie between Maidenhead United and Aldershot Town, which will not surprise many of you ! We talked about United on Tuesday ( reproduced below, there is a theme going on here !) , when we opposed them with Dover Athletic, the visitors ran out very comfortable 4-1 winners, although the Magpies did put some pressure on in a 15 minute spell in the second half. I missed that having only stayed to watch the opening 45 minutes as I was passing the ground at that time and as I reported the next day, Dover had no problems getting in behind the home defence, which is really leaking goals. I appreciate that they were distracted by this big cup tie, which, after all, was one of my arguments for opposing them in midweek, but they are going to really struggle to keep the lively Aldershot front players at bay and I have to side with the visitors. The Shots will be without suspended goalkeeper Ross Worner, but replacement Jamie Young played in the first six games of the season and also when I saw them in pre season and I did not really notice him, so that is a compliment in itself. The Shots had a good run in the Carling Cup, but their league form suffered leading up to the huge game against Manchester United, but they seemed back on track with three wins in a row and ten goals scored, before the 2-0 loss with ten men at Rotherham last week. That was a bad day at the office, but it was all credit to them and their fitness levels, which are very high and something I touched upon in pre season, that they tried to take the game to the Millers two down and short one man. The pitch at York Road will be a little sticky and maybe even heavy and that should eventually play into the Shots hands, after they have weathered a bit of a storm from a fired up United. It is far from a trip into the unknown for Aldershot, who played here many times in their non league days, or especially for visiting boss Dean Holdsworth who had great joy here recently with his former club Newport County, around half the crowd ( 1,000) will be noisy Shots fans and I expect them to go home happy. Holdsworth is very ambitious and is on the radar of a lot of bigger clubs, he will not want a loss here on his CV so we can expect them to be equally as motivated as the hosts. 1.5 units Aldershot Town -0.75 asian line 2.0 .

I am going to start in the Blue Square South, where Maidenhead United host Dover Athletic, we discussed the visitors on Saturday (see below ) and they found a very late winner, not enough to win our bet, but it at least saved our stake. Athletic struggled to break down a very negative Weston team, who came for a point and were trying to waste time almost from the kick off. They are very unlikely to face a similar approach tonight, with United favouring an open style, especially here at York Road. The hosts are without a league win in two months and were 3-0 down at Eastleigh very early on saturday and not for the first time this season. They finally lost 4-1 and were defensively a bit of a shambles, with at least one of the backline playing out of position. That aside, the Magpies are very distracted by a big home FA Cup tie with Aldershot Town this weekend, they normally play home games in front of 250 people and will have a close to capacity crowd of around 10 times that and none of the players wants to miss out on their biggest game in years, especially with the chance to impress a league scout or two. Athletic are fully focused only on tonight's fixture and should have enough about them to collect the points. I have just been to the United ground ( it is around two miles from my home) to try and get some confirmed team news, but it is like the match tonight is not taking place, with only the Aldershot game receiving any attention. Dover Athletic -0.25 ball 1.90 asian line.

Good Luck.

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND SIR ..... AND MADAM !

LEYTON ORIENT - HARTLEPOOL UNITED

I was originally VERY keen on Orient here, but just heard that Matt Spring and Kevin Lisbie both picked up injuries during last weekend’s 2-0 win at Rochdale and are rated by O’s boss Russell Slade as doubtful for the game. Neither has trained this week and with a growing injury list, the home side are down to the bare bones, they will still be able to put out a decent enough starting eleven, but the bench is very weak and leaves them very few options. This is a shame, as Hartlepool are in a real slump and missing key players of their own, these are very much two clubs heading in opposite directions and I would have loved to have side with the O's at odds against. Six weeks ago the East London club were bottom of the table, with just three points ( all draws) from a possible 30, whilst Pool were flying high and unbeaten in 4th spot, 16 points ahead of Orient. The visitors have since gone 1-0-5 and the hosts 4-2-0, the gap is down to just five points and four league places. This was not entirely unexpected, all season United have been making the most of very few attempts on goal and as I pointed out a couple of months back, sooner or later this was going to catch up with them. United have still only managed a division low 122 attempts on goal, with a paltry 48 on target.

Orient have some history of runs like this, last year they were 23rd with a 2-3-6 record in the first week of October, five months later they were on the playoff fringes, having gone 13-8-2 through the mid season, that equates to 94 points over the full term and would have seen them finish ahead of Southampton who are now on the verge of a return to the EPL. They finally missed out on the playoffs by a single point. I do not know if they "over train" in the off season,which leaves them "leggy" early in the campaign, but I have seen that happen year after year to certain teams, so something might be wrong, anyway, they are not a team I would want to oppose at present, Russell Slade has got them buzzing and playing with huge confidence. I will put this up in black type, but if either Spring or Lisbie made the line up,even the bench, I would make them a firm bet. Leyton Orient -0.5 ball 2.14 asian line.

ATHLETIC BILBAO - BARCELONA OK, we all know that it is definitely not a profitable policy to oppose Barcelona on even a semi-regular basis, but I have to chance a little on Athletic Bilbao at home getting such a huge handicap start. We have discussed Athletic several times recently ( two are reproduced below) and they are now unbeaten in nine starts, including a 1-0 win at Salzburg on Thursday night , where they replaced two of their young stars after taking the lead, with the weekend fixture clearly in mind. Last ten h2h meetings here have ended 1-4-5, with a 10-15 goal difference, which is probably as good as most against the best club side in world football, Barce have only posted one two goal victory in that sequence and three of the last six have ended all square. The Catalan giants have not exactly set La Liga alight on the road domestically, drawing at Valencia and Sociedad and winning by the minimum margin at Gijon and Granada and the 6.50 offered for the draw here is calling me like the song of the sirens.
However, I will play safe and take 1.25 units Athletic Bilbao +1.75 ball asian line 1.95 +, which is really a very attractive price IMO. It will be extremely interesting to see how Iker Munian fares in this, he was an unused substitute in both meetings with Barcelona last season and he will get a closer look at them on Sunday, should be fun !

Good Luck.

Thursday October 27th

One of those was Athletic Bilbao (see below) and I am going to start with their attractive home fixture with Atletico Madrid. They started on fire in the Osasuna game, racing into an early 3-0 lead and coasting home despite the visitors claiming an injury time consolation goal. Bilbao have subsequently continued their recovery with a draw at Mestalla and can move into the top eight with three points this evening. Wildly talented Iker Muniain scored in both matches and looks a player to build a franchise around. Now that coach Marcelo Bielsa has got his team up and running and signing from his hymn sheet, I do not want to rush to oppose Athletic, a top four push is certainly not out of the question, they were sixth last year anyway and it is hard to make a case for Valencia, Sevilla and especially Villarreal being stronger this time round. With a tough November ahead, including a visit from Barcelona and trip to Seville, they should be extra motivated for points tonight and at Gijon over the weekend and this looks a very good time to be playing Atletico, who are another potential rival for a high finish. The capital's second club started the season well enough, but a heavy loss to Barce appears to have knocked their confidence and they have lost their way, they are without a win in six, or a goal from open play in four starts ( they scored against Mallorca from the penalty spot), or of any kind on the road domestically. Star 40m euro striker Radamel Falcao has not been firing and is said to be struggling with gastroenteritis over recent days. Hosts will be without Carlos Gurpegi for several months, but the veteran midfielder has been a fringe player under Bielsa and I do not see this as the loss it would once have been. I have to stick with the hosts Athletic Bilabo -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

Bilbao: Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Amorebieta, San José, David López, Iturraspe, Llorente, De Marcos, Gabilondo, Raúl, Susaeta, Iraola, Muniain, Ander Herrera, Ekiza, Javi Martínez, Ibai , Ruiz and Galarreta.

Atletico: Courtois, Sergio Asenjo, Godín, Antonio López, Filipe Luis, Sìlvio, Álvaro Domínguez, Miranda, Mario Suárez, Salvio, Reyes, Arda Turan, Paulo Assunçao, Gabi, Koke, Diego, Adrián, Falcao and Pizzi.

Written Monday October 17th

In La Liga we have an interesting Basque derby game between Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna, hosts are the big power in the region and after seeing off Sociedad (another local rival) just before the international break, will be keen to follow up and do the double. I suspect they could have done without the break, as that was their first win of the campaign and it followed on from an impressive 2-0 defeat of big spending PSG in the Europa League. New coach Marcelo Bielsa is a real one off and it has taken a little time to get his ideas across, but the benefits are starting to show and we can expect Bilbao to come on very strong in the next couple of months. Bielsa is very meticulous, he personally checks pitch measurements before every away game and has been known to give four hour press conferences ! He favours a high pressing game, with the strikers putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenders, whilst at times this looks a fairly rigid formation, he makes a lot of subtle changes during the course of the game, which sometimes give them five forward players. 18 yo Iker Muniain has been outstanding in the last two seasons and he has been very influential in the last two games, setting up a lot of chances for the front three. Far more options for the coach tonight with the return of big summer signing Ander Herrera from injury and Ekiza to the centre of defence after suspension and this is a young, developing team of huge potential. Fernando Llorente who has found his scoring boots recently, missed training twice last week, but is named in the squad and Bielsa has a habit of sometimes training strikers separately from the rest of the group in any case, so you can never be sure with him, I told you he was a one off ! You always get a tough physical challenge from Athletic and the visitors have really struggled here in recent seasons, not scoring in five visits and losing the last four. Osasuna are not great travellers at the best of times and probably still have nightmares about their recent 8-0 loss at Barcelona, where their goalkeeper was their star performer and they look a little fragile. Goals are always a problem for them, just five this season and only Gijon of the other top ten clubs scored fewer last season, defensively they are very short of numbers with four players out, two of whom (Raitala and Ruben) started in the last league game, when they conceded two at home to struggling Mallorca, the second when the visitors were already reduced to ten men. They have added Roversio to the squad, but he was said to be a big doubt a couple of days ago and including him, every available defensive player has travelled. I like this home win a lot, but am not madly keen on these Monday night home televised favourites, having said that, everything else looks in Athletic's favour and they desperately need a home win in the league, especially ahead of tougher games against Valencia and Atletico. Just one unit Athletic Bilbao -0.5 ball 1.86, but I might press this early in the game if signs are good and 2.0 + becomes available.

Bilbao :Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Amorebieta, San José, David López, Iturraspe, Llorente, De Marcos, Gabilondo, Raúl, Susaeta, Iraola, Gurpegi, Muniain, Ander Herrera, Ekiza, Javi Martínez y Ibai.
Osasuna :Andrés Fernández, Riesgo, Marc Bertrán, Damià, Lolo, Miguel Flaño, Roversio, Sergio, Annunziata, Cejudo, Lamah, Nekounam, Puñal, Raúl García, Timor, Ibrahima, Sola y Nino.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TUESDAY ....

I will send my first half notes by email, along with any selections, within a minute or two of the half time whistle.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST - READING

Overnight line: Forest -0.25 ball 2.07 -1.85 2.25 goals : 1.86- 2.04

Movement :Royals have been shaded into 1.81 and the "over" have drifted slightly.

Confirmed team news: Bit strange as Manset starts and Church drops to the bench, very strong bench for the Royals.Ishmael Miller misses out for Forest and is to have surgery.

Reading: Federici, Cummings, Mills, Pearce, Gorkss, Karacan, Leigertwood, McAnuff, Robson-Kanu, Le Fondre, Manset.
Subs: McCarthy, Harte, Kebe, Hunt, Church

Forest: Camp, Chambers(C), Morgan, Lynch, Cunningham, Gunter, Moussi, McGugan, Majewski, Tudgay, Findley.

Attempts on goal this season :135-147

Forest are 3-7-4 in the first half, conceding a league high 14 goals before the break. They have lost nine points from winning positions and lost four of the seven matches in which they have got in all square at the half.

Reading have yet to win a first half, which is hardly surprising with just the one goal scored before the break, going in with a 0-11-3 record, however, they have only gone on to lose two of those eleven draws.

Hosts lost their first game under new coach Steve Cotterill at the weekend, it will be interesting to see how they bounce back against the Royals who are unbeaten in eight. Hosts will have Guy Moussi back from suspension.

SOUTHAMPTON - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

Overnight line : Saints -1 ball 1.94-1.98 3 goal line : 1.83-2.07

Movement : Huge support for the Saints, down to 1.74 and it was lower earlier in the day, the "over" has been clipped accordingly but only by a minimal margin.

Confirmed team news:

Saints: Davis, Richardson, Fonte, Hooiveld, Harding, Chaplow, Hammond, Schneiderlin, Lallana, Guly, Lambert. Subs: Bialkowski, A. Martin, Cork, De Ridder, Connolly.

Peterborough: Jones, M. Lewis, Bennett, Zakuani, McCann, Rowe, Thompson, Kennedy, Frecklington, Tunnicliffe, Boyd, Taylor. Subs: J. Lewis, Ball, Sinclair, Thompson, Kearns.

Attempts on goal this season : 180 -194 ( Championship high)

Saints as you might expect for the league leaders are strong in the first half, with an 8-4-2 record, eventually winning all eight when leading at the break, they had a similar record last season and clearly not a side against whom you want to be chasing. Perhaps surprisingly, they have drawn a league high eight second half's.

Posh fans have seen a league high 24 goals before the break. Whilst Grant McCann has had the most of their many attempts on goal, close behind are George Boyd, who is also their main provider and Lee Tomlin, Boro play much better when both of these two start.

Visitors are without a cleansheet since I wore short trousers to school and have conceded 14 goals in their last six starts.

Hosts could open up a six point lead at teh top of the table tonight. Lee Tomlin misses out with the second match of his three game suspension.

It all points to Saints, but I have some doubts, but it will be tough for Posh without Tomlin.

WEST HAM UNITED - BRISTOL CITY

Overnight line: West Ham -1.25 ball 1.85-2.05 3 goal line : 2.08 - 1.82

Movement : City popular with the big handicap start, down to 1.93, goal line is unchanged.

Confirmed team news:

West Ham United: Green, O'Brien, Reid, Tomkins, McCartney, Faubert, Noble, Nolan, Sears, Piquionne, Baldock
Subs: Kurucz, Faye, Diop, Hall, Cole

Bristol City: James, Skuse, Fontaine, Nyatanga, McGivern, Cisse, Elliott, Kilkenny, Woolford, Adomah, Maynard
Subs: Gerken, Wilson, Bolasie, Clarkson, Pitman

Attempts on goal this season : 168-156 Almost 59 % of the City goalscoring attempts have come from just three players Adomah, Elliott and Maynard. For the Hammers, only Kevin Nolan (24) has had over 20 attempts and their threat is not so easy to pinpoint.

West Ham are an impressive 7-1-0 when leading at the half and the top two teams in the Championship, clearly know how to finish the job, once they get their noses in front. Hosts are 8-5-1 in the opening 45 mins, conceding a league low three goals in the process. However, they have actually only won three second half periods and one ( home to Portsmouth), which we watched was very fortunate. City have conceded a league high 19 goals after the break and have collect only two points from a possible 18 when going in at the half all square.

Bristol City striker Nicky Maynard scored an injury-time winner to beat Barnsley and give Derek McInnes his first win at the weekend and I am sure they would have liked a home game to build on that, instead a trip to East London and the highflying Hammers, however, Fat Sam's boys have looked vunerable here at times.

Good Luck.