MONDAY, MONDAY .....

Today's email..... which covered, stats for the last nine months on the email service, long term positions, a change in staking plan for 2013, the new website, my beloved Bees, the 49ers and the championship race in the NFC, plus draws, what draws (!) in La Liga. Quite a bit for an email in which there is no "official" selection !

MONDAY DECEMBER 10TH

I am going to send two emails tomorrow, the first at the normal time of 10.00 will cover the Ligue 2 programme, the follow up at 14.00  will include all the other Tuesday fixtures and almost certainly the early Wednesday matches from the Club World Cup .

Lyon, Pescara. the Giants, 49ers and Monterrey all won for us yesterday and we managed to turn a circa 10% profit on the week, which was like bountiful riches after the previous six weeks, we started keeping accurate email statistics from April and were flying high towards the end of October with an incredible ROI of 122% for the seven months, which, considering we are betting almost exclusively on asian lines and are previewing circa 24-25 matches/events per week, were sensational , albeit, unsustainable returns. A blip was always going to come and we have paid for our mid summer fun, we are now running at a ROI of 114% + for the last 36 weeks, across 753 red type bets and over 850 match/event previews. Those are really good figures taken as a whole, the way I view it , is that variance has had it's day now and we should enjoy the best of things in the coming week or two, or three. It just felt to me like things changed last week and I expect to see a few goals go in off backsides and plenty of last minute winners for us, just to even everything back out again.

These figures do not include any of the black type "suggestions" and there have been plenty at huge odds (including 28-1 and 25-1 see foot of the email) and a lot more over the last tough seven weeks at circa 3.0-4.0, so the opportunity was there for everyone to have improved upon those returns, as well as to benefit from the information contained in the actual content, something we discussed recently. We also have strong long term positions with Manchester United, Watford, Cardiff City, Brentford and 49ers, I hope that most of you are on at least one of those and that they can earn us a real bonus later in the season.

I am going to ditch black type suggestions completely from January 1, everything will be red type or nothing, this will mean more lower stake selections . I will also upgrade the maximum stake selection to 3 units, keeping the next highest at 1.75, which is something I should have done sooner. I will go over all this again nearer the time.

The new website is still on schedule and should be up and running in a little over three weeks, this will be a big upgrade overall and there will be additional features for subscribers, if not immediately, then very shortly after the launch. These will be incororated as soon as we feel everything is running smoothly. There will also be some other exciting ( at least for me !) changes happening shortly, which I am hoping will coincide with the website launch.

I do not want to go on too much about this in case any scouts/agents stumble across it, but the potential in the Brentford squad is a little frightening. Nine of the 15 outfield players in the squad for Saturday were aged 21 or younger, they out fought and out played the best (second best ?) footballing side in the division in MK Dons and are only going to get better. The form of Harry Forrester is worrying the life out of me with the transfer window approaching, he is still only 21 and long term readers might recall, I told you he turned down a contract offer from Ajax ( it's true !) to sign for the Bees. He was injury hit for the first season and also became a very young father, so we only saw glimpses of his ability last season, but injury free this time round, he has flourished, is totally unplayable at times and will play at a much higher level, as will at least four of this squad and I do not mean the Championship.

The 49ers remain in second place in the NFC and three wins, or two wins from their remaining games (combined with a loss somewhere along the line for the Packers), would ensure they ended the season ranked at least #2. We have a key weekend approaching with the hungry Giants travelling to meet the #1 ranked Falcons, the Bears hosting the Packers and the Niners travelling to play the Patriots. Good news for us is that New England are playing Houston tonight, so will be coming off a short week. More of all those next Sunday.

I am not overly interested in the matches today and am going to pass and wait for tomorrow, I did look at the La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Real Zaragoza, not least because of the scarcity of draws in Spain, with Primera games running at 18.79 % this season, of course, these are a little lopsided as the big two do not draw many, but at the same stage last season , they were running at almost 27%. In betting terms the average draw was 3.71 after 15 rounds last season and is 5.33 this time round.There are many ways you could view these or use the data, I would suggest that taking the draw out of the equation and opting for the bigger odds whenever possible would be one option. For example, if you liked the home side here, -0.5 ball 2.16 would probably offer better long term returns than -0.25 ball 1.85, if you favoured Zaragoza, the win odds of 3.60 might be better than 1.80 with the half ball handicap option, as with that you are effectively betting both the draw and the away @ 3.60.

These two have actually drawn just one match each this season and neither should have ended all square, Zaragoza's came last time out at Mallorca, where they scored early and were battered after that, with the hosts missing a penalty, before equalising late. Rayo had an early season 0-0 home draw with Sevilla, where they played circa 25 minutes with ten men, so were then playing for the draw and the visitors missed TWO penalties !

Just one cleansheet in ten for the hosts, who have conceded a massive 25 times over that sequence, Zaragoza are 2-1-4 on the road, their four defeats have come at Real Madrid, Barcelona ,Valencia and Sociedad, so not exactly an easy schedule and you could argue that they are 2-1-1 from the only winable fixtures. They have been creating a lot of chances, even averaging over 14 attempts on goal in those losses to the "big 3", they seem certain to get chances tonight and if forced to pick, I would suggest a very minimal bet on the straight away win at that circa 3.60.

Good Luck.

In addition to the red type selections, I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 12-1 LINK 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.

How the email service works, an explanation LINK

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

YOU WAIT ELEVEN MONTHS FOR ONE ......

EPL: ASTON VILLA- STOKE CITY

I am going to take the "London bus" approach with City today and after waiting 11 months for an away win the EPL, I think they might claim another today, following that win at the Hawthorns last weekend.  I wrote ahead of that .... I am rarely very complimentary about City, but whilst that are not very pleasing on the eye, it is impossible to dispute that they are extremely tough to beat. They might only have posted one road away win in 2012, but there have been plenty of draws and they have only lost three times this season. There was something to take from each of those defeats, at Chelsea, they held out for 86 minutes, at Manchester United they led and scored twice and at Norwich City, they were much the better team and lost to a hotly disputed goal. Albion have had a terrific season so far and have had a lot of media attention, but have actually lost one more game than City and looked a little like things were starting to catch up with them in their 3-1 defeat at Swansea City in midweek, where they were run ragged at times. They have kept just one clean sheet in ten starts, to a Southampton team who were really struggling at the time ,and have conceded two or more goals six times in that sequence and suddenly they look defensively fragile and as though they need three goals to win. City have a terrific record here, not losing since 2003 and winning on four of their last five visits.

City's record here is not as good, but they have taken points on three of their last four visits. They have won their last three and lost just once in seven starts, that unfortunate defeat at Norwich, just three goals conceded in that sequence, they will miss Charlie Adam today who is suspended and that is a loss, but Peter Crouch might be ready to return and with key central defender Ron Vlaar ( 13-0-0) again ruled out for Villa , the striker's aerial threat might be key. Goals are still in short supply for Villa and in 30 starts, they have only scored more than a single goal once and not lost the match ( if that makes sense !) 27 times scoring one goal or less. Given how tough City are to break down, they look good with the minimum start, but I will be a little braver and go for the bigger odds and the draw no bet quote. 1.25 units Stoke City level ball 2.26 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

CHAMPIONSHIP: WATFORD - HULL CITY

The visitors are coming off a fine win at Nottingham Forest, but they have been very inconsistent this season and one good performance for them, has tended to be followed by a poor one. They have posted a LWLWLWLW sequence on the road and hopefully, that will continue today. They have been comprehensively outplayed by Burnley and Cardiff City recently and they are very much a work in progress.

We have spoken a lot about Watford both pre season and recently LINK and things are getting a little exciting. They beat Barnsley 4-1 last week, to make it four wins and 18 goals scored in five starts ( they led by two gaols in the other, which ended 2-2) and after the last win, opposition manager Keith Hill, who is very much of the tell it as you find it variety said “there was nothing even about that game,we rode our luck with respect to the first half. We made some horrendous decisions, in and out of possession, so the best team won. I have to congratulate Gianfranco because he has got an excellent side.”

He finished with “There is a possibility that this was the best performance that I’ve seen from an opposition team against us. I thought they were excellent in every department.”

The big squad and rotation policy that Zola has been using means he is always bringing in fresh players and that should serve him especially well today, both teams will have played 9 matches in the last five weeks and this will be City's fourth of six on the road and all at tough venues, Cardiff, Birmingham, Forest and now Watford. Hosts to edge this one and underline their promotion credentials.  1.25 units Watford -0.25 ball 2.00 asian line. 

 

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM FRIDAY'S EMAIL ....

Friday December 7th

No Ligue 2 matches today, they play a full round Monday-Wednesday next week.

There are also no J-League matches tomorrow of course, however, there will still be two emails today, with a follow up at 16.00 UK time covering the Saturday afternoon fixtures. I have six matches, or at least teams, that I am likely to discuss there to some degree or another, not sure how that will translate into actual bets at the moment. I will also update the schedule for the rest of the weekend in that email.

Whilst we do not have Ligue 2, there is a Cup round in France and Laval host Guingamp tonight, plenty of rain there this morning, but this will clear before lunchtime (apparently), but it is going to be fairly windy for the rest of the day, so pretty demanding conditions. These are two teams we have discussed quite a lot this season. The visitors, earlier this week, on Monday when I wrote concerning team news....

The hosts (Guingamp) are not trouble free and are without suspended right-back Jonathan Martins Pereira (14-0-2) who is amongst the first names on the team sheet, multi purpose full back Paul Babiloni (7-0-1) remains sidelined, he has not played since late September, but it is now more of a problem with JMP also out. Central defenders Gregory Cerdan (12-1-0)and  Mamadou Camara (3-0-0), have missed out too and suddenly a shortage of defensive options, but that didn't stop Lorient from winning yesterday ! Top scorer Mustapha Yatabare (15-10-2) is also not on the team sheet (see below) which is a surprise."

They beat Istres 1-0, the goal was a little fortunate, as it came from a cross which found it's way into the net, but it was deserved and should have been more emphatic. They are now up to third and will surely give a home match with Arles and trip to Lens next week, greater importance.They, quite rightly, viewed the match on Monday as huge and put a lot of effort into the performance, mentally as well as physically and with the quick turnaround always tough, they are going to be up against it today, especially with another vital league game in just four days time. From Monday's starting line up, Goalkeeper Samassa (16 Ligue 2 starts and 17 goals conceded), young right back Baissama Sanko (5-0-0), midfielder Fatih Atik ( 13-0-2) and Christophe Mandanne (14-2-2) miss out, with Gregory Cerdan and Mustapha Yatabare coming back in (see above), along with back up keeper Vincente Planté. You could argue about whether they are stronger or weaker today, I would say a little weakened and with so many (all highlighted below) having featured in both squads, definitely more jaded than Laval who have had a free seven days to focus on this and who almost certainly have  a cup run as more of a priority than the visitors this season.The hosts are without central defender Pierre Talmont (11-1-0) and striker Ghislain Gimbert (12-2-0), but have five registered centre backs and three experienced options up front. Laval have been playing pretty well for two months, not as well as Guingamp, but tonight they are in better shape and should be the more motivatedof the two, so 1.25 units Laval -0.25 ball 2.19 asian line. The pair have already met in the league, a 1-1 draw in Guingamp two months ago, where Laval led for an hour before conceding a late equaliser in what was a keenly fought encounter, Laval had quite a lot of joy against Jonathan Martins Pereira in that game ( you can get some idea on this very brief LINK) and with the visitors weak on this flank tonight, we are likely to see more of the same.

 

Laval : Balijon, Vanhamel - Belaud, Rose, Falette, M. Traoré, Hamdi, Gonçalvès, Betsch, Gamboa, Lebouc, Do Marcolino, Perrot, Ewolo, Le Baron, Viale.

Guingamp (Today): Planté, Guichard - Argelier, Bellugou, Cerdan, Imbula, Charrier, Mathis, Mo. Diallo, Giresse, Fauré, Mu.Yatabaré, Kerbrat, Delalande, Rouger, Alioui. 

Guingamp  (Monday): Samassa, Guichard - Sankoh, Kerbrat, Bellugou, Imbula, Atik, Diallo, Argelier, Delalande, Mathis, Giresse, Charrier, Rouger, Alioui, Fauré, Mandanne.

Good Luck.

Contact:gowi8@btinternet.com

HAPPY HOUR ..........

TUESDAY DECEMBER 4th

Quite a few interesting matches in the UK, the Champions League less so, with so much already decided, four matches to discuss and all the teams I favour look sure to have the edge in motivation, but we have to do a little thinking between the lines to come to those conclusions......

JOHNSTONE'S PAINT TROPHY:

PORT VALE - BRADFORD CITY

City have had a little longer recovery time, after playing Brentford on Friday night, but the Bees had a lot of possession in that game and the Bantams worked hard. Their reward is an even more crowded fixture list, their December now looks like this, Vale today, Torquay Saturday, Arsenal next midweek, followed by Southend United away on the Saturday after and the Brentford replay on the Tuesday, then the four holiday fixtures.

The JPT match will be the absolute lowest priority of any of those fixtures, they have to get out of L2 this season and already have the glamour tie with the Gunners, so simply do not need any more matches.

Vale were very unlucky to concede twice in injury time against Sheffield United onSsaturday, in a match where they led for an hour. They will be without midfielder Ryan Burge ( 16-2-1), central defender Richard Duffy ( 18-0-3) and top L2 goalscorer Tom Pope (20-19-6), all of whom are suspended, but I suspect a couple of them would have been rested anyway. The hosts also have promotion as a priority of course, but already out of the FA Cup, in the automatic promotion places with a five point advantage over 4th and with no midweek fixtures scheduled for a couple of months, they can afford to give the JPT a shot and would dearly love the additional income a final appearance would bring. Port Vale -0.5 ball 2.09 asian line .

Just two and a half hours left to take advantage of that happy hour offer, which expires at 20.00 this evening, if you did not receive details, email me at gowi8@btinternet.com

But be quick !

DOUGIE AND LENNIE.... THE ODD COUPLE... TO LEAD TROTTERS UP THE CHAMPIONSHIP.....

I have previewed eight matches so far today, including a very strong (1.75 unit selection) for the evening fixtures and will also have a further three previews in the final lunchtime email of the day. I have included the morning J-League notes below as a sample of what the service offers, there was a small profit on the four games and there are also a pair of active picks for this afternoon, although the stronger news overall is vey much for the later games.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

 

 

J-LEAGUE

Final round of maches....

	1		Sanfreece Hiroshima	33	18	7	8	62	34	+28	61	WLWX	17	10	2	5	32	16	16	8	5	3	30	18
	2		Vegalta Sendai	33	15	12	6	57	37	+20	57	LXXX	17	9	6	2	34	17	16	6	6	4	23	20
	3	2	Sagan Tosu	33	15	8	10	48	38	+10	53	WWWW	17	11	3	3	26	12	16	4	5	7	22	26
	4	2	Kashiwa Reysol	33	15	7	11	57	50	+7	52	WWXL	17	6	5	6	28	30	16	9	2	5	29	20
	5	2	Urawa Reds	33	14	10	9	45	42	+3	52	LWLO	16	7	6	3	21	18	17	7	4	6	24	24
	6	2	Nagoya Grampus 8	33	15	7	11	46	45	+1	52	LWWX	17	8	3	6	22	19	16	7	4	5	24	26
	7	1	Yokohama F-Marinos	33	12	14	7	43	33	+10	50	WLWX	16	6	7	3	23	15	17	6	7	4	20	18
	8	1	Kawasaki Frontale	33	14	7	12	49	48	+1	49	WWWX	17	7	2	8	25	26	16	7	5	4	24	22
	9	2	Shimizu S-Pulse	33	14	6	13	39	40	-1	48	LLLW	16	6	6	4	23	21	17	8	0	9	16	19
	10		FC Tokyo	33	13	6	14	41	42	-1	45	XLLW	16	7	1	8	24	20	17	6	5	6	17	22
	11	2	Kashima Antlers	33	11	10	12	48	43	+5	43	WXOL	16	7	3	6	34	21	17	4	7	6	14	22
	12	1	Jubilo Iwata	33	12	7	14	55	52	+3	43	LLLX	16	8	5	3	29	18	17	4	2	11	26	34
	13	1	Omiya Ardija	33	11	10	12	38	45	-7	43	WWOW	17	6	5	6	17	20	16	5	5	6	21	25
	14	2	Cerezo Osaka	33	11	8	14	45	51	-6	41	LLXO	16	6	2	8	24	26	17	5	6	6	21	25
	15		Vissel Kobe	33	11	6	16	41	49	-8	39	LWLX	16	5	3	8	19	20	17	6	3	8	22	29
	16		Gamba Osaka	33	9	11	13	66	63	+3	38	XWXX	17	4	7	6	36	35	16	5	4	7	30	28
	17		Albirex Niigata	33	9	10	14	25	33	-8	37	WLWL	16	2	6	8	11	20	17	7	4	6	14	13
	18		Consadole Sapporo	33	4	2	27	24	84	-60	14	LLLL	17	3	2	12	13	34	16	1	0	15	11	50

Brief summary....

FC TOKYO- VEGALTA SENDAI

SHIMIZU S-PULSE- OMIYA ARDIJA

are the only matches with nothing at stake.

VISSEL KOBE- SANFREECE HIROSHIMA  .... visitors have already claimed the title and have doubtless spent most of the week celebrating, Vissel will be 100% safe from relegation with a win.

JUBILO IWATA- GAMBA OSAKA....... hosts are safe, Gamba would pass Vissel with a point if Kobe lose, but with Albirex hosting Consadole, that scenario could easily see both relegated, so really, only a win will give Osaka a chance.

CEREZO OSAKA- KAWASAKI FRONTALE...... Cerezo safe with a point, or if either of Vissel or Gamba fail to win, Frontale have nothing to play for.

ALBIREX NIIGATA- CONSADOLE SAPPORO ..... Hosts should win, that would give them 40 points, they would then need both Gamba and Vissel to drop points.

KASHIMA ANTLERS- KASHIWA REYSOL..... Home side have nothing to play for, Reysol could steal the Champions League spot if they win and Sagan do not.

URAWA REDS- NAGOYA GRAMPUS 8 .... Both have an outside chance to clinch third, they first need to win, a draw would end any hopes and then trust that both Sagan and Reysol drop points.

YOKOHAMA F-MARINOS - SAGAN TOSU.... Have a mathematical chance to clinch third, but need to win, for Urawa-Nagoya to draw and Reysol to drop points, not impossible, but unlikely given the scenario going into the games, Sagan will take third if they win regardless of results elsewhere.

The good news is that we know exactly what every team has to do, the bad, is that so do the oddsmakers !

Team news is far less important than normal, motivation is the over riding factor, but we have to bear in mind that it can come and go and results elsewhere can leave a team, who were pumped up at the start, not only with nothing to play for suddenly, but also deflated.

Gamba seem very skinny to me, as results elsewhere could mean they are fighting a lost cause, I could take a chance on bigger odds, but not at these quotes.

I like three teams to win, all seem overpriced, two substantially so and also have a fourth selection at rewarding odds, which is easy to see playing out to our advantage.

Urawa look a decent price to beat Nagoya, in a match that "shouldn't" be a draw, as that will take both out of the equation, of course, if news comes through that Sagan are two up , then motivation for one or other, or both, could lessen and the match fizzle out, but if that were to be the case, I always feel that the home side with the crowd behind them, are still the more likely to be pushing for the win. Also, Nagoya had possession of the remaining ACL spot last week, but not for the first time this season, showed a bit of mental frailty and came up short, losing at home. We have seen that before from them and they are not a team to completely trust. The same is true to some degree also about Urawa, but they have come a long way in the last 12 months, having missed out on relegation by just three points last season. A win today would secure their highest finish in five years and a hat trick of victories here over Nagoya. Home win for me . Urawa Reds -0.5 ball 2.21 asian line.

Vissel Kobe know that three points for Albirex are very likely and that would make a win essential, if they are to survive. They will have striker Ken Tokura (24-6-1) back from suspension and I am sure that it will all guns blazing for the points at some stage. Sanfreece Hiroshima are already champions and will be carrying a hangover into this game, even if the real one has passed, there will still have been interview after interview to deal with this week and media interest in their every move. It is very hard to see them being able to match the intesity of the hosts, who have previous experience of this situation needing a win on the final day in 2010, plus results elsewhere, to survive and won 4-0 on the road, the three goalscorers, Yoshida (2), Park and Ogawa, are all still at the club and two will probably play tomorrow, that will stand them in good stead.1.5 units Vissel Kobe -0.25 ball 2.06 asian line.

My last match is a "friendly" and I am taking FC Tokyo to end their season with a win. I made them a quarter ball favourite, so the level ball quote forces my hand. Velgata have blown the title, which was there for the taking and couldn't even take matters to the final day, when they knew that Hiroshima would be facing the tougher fixture ( against a team with something to play for) and I am not sure what sort of state psychologically they can be in. They are probably already mentally lying on a beach somewhere, I doubt that they need a meaningless road fixture, when they are going to finish second in J-League, win, lose or draw today. I think we can expect some rotation from them. Hosts recalled striker Kazuma Watanabe to the squad last week, he scored in the draw at Gamba, where they battled for 90 minutes against a motivated opponent and we can expect the same today and for Watanabe to look to follow up, he has developed a reputation as an early season player and needs to get that off his CV. They have not won in three and having lost their last home game, will want to send their supporters off with a positive mental memory for the winter. 1.5 units FC Tokyo level ball 1.95 asian line.

If I was the Sagan coach ( unfortunately for them, I am not !), I think I would be looking to keep things quiet early against Yokohama, with the knowledge that results elsewhere might end any hope Marinos have of third place, that is pretty much Sagan's modus operandi in any case, as they have scored 69% of their goals after the break. With the hosts conceding a very high 54% in the final third (after the 61st minute), there is a big chance of any winner for Sagan, coming late. All matches start at the same time tomorrow, if they come in at the break all square and there is a positive result for either team at Urawa and/or Reysol are leading. Hosts will have very little chance (none ?) of third and Sagan will need to win. I think the HT/FT market offers some value for the draw ht- sagan ft pick at circa 7.50 even up to 8.0 in a place and at 7.0 + pretty much across the board, we could "waste" 0.5 units on that, alternatively, if that is the scenario or pretty close to it at the break, you could look to get involved "in play".

PREMIER LEAGUE:

WEST BROMWICH ALBION- STOKE CITY

I am rarely very complimentary about City, but whilst that are not very pleasing on the eye, it is impossible to dispute that they are extremely tough to beat. They might only have posted one road away win in 2012, but there have been plenty of draws and they have only lost three times this season. There was something to take from each of those defeats, at Chelsea, they held out for 86 minutes, at Manchester United they led and scored twice and at Norwich City, they were much the better team and lost to a hotly disputed goal. Albion have had a terrific season so far and have had a lot of media attention, but have actually lost one more game than City and looked a little like things were starting to catch up with them in their 3-1 defeat at Swansea City in midweek, where they were run ragged at times. They have kept just one clean sheet in ten starts, to a Southampton team who were really struggling at the time ,and have conceded two or more goals six times in that sequence and suddenly they look defensively fragile and as though they need three goals to win. City have a terrific record here, not losing since 2003 and winning on four of their last five visits. There is circa 3.40-3.75 for City to score twice which is a terrific price IMO and I am going to try and take a little of that, but officially, I will stick with  1.25 units Stoke City +0.25 ball 2.20 asian line.

MANCHESTER CITY- EVERTON

RESTRICTED

CHAMPIONSHIP: BOLTON WANDERERS- IPSWICH TOWN

We spoke about Bolton just after Dougie Freedman took charge....

The job that Dougie Freedman did at Crystal Palace was incredible, not just on the pitch, but off it too, where he instilled a lot of pride and discipline into the players and those traits can take both Wanderers and him, a long way.

The hosts were really buoyed by the win over highflying Cardiff City on Saturday, it did come at a cost, with goalscorer David Ngog being red carded and he will miss out tonight, but to come from behind against the league leaders on the new manager's home debut was a dream start and Fredman can take a lot of the credit, with his tactical changes turning the match on it's head.  These are exciting times for Bolton, Freedman is the real deal and they have the squad to make a big promotion push, they might only be up to 17th after the win, but they are just five points off a playoff spot and 5.50 for promotion might very quickly look like a big price, especially if they follow up tonight.

He managed to get his number two from Palace, the hugely experienced Lennie Lawrence to join him and described it as "one of the best signings Bolton will ever make" ,  Adding I'm the driver of this ship, I will drive it through commitment, effort, desire and honesty. Lennie Lawrence will steer it." Great comment !

I doubt that Freedman will make any changes from the starting eleven ( Ngog started on the bench against City), a quick look at that bench gives you some idea (apart from salary), about why DF moved North, alongside Ngog, he had another five players with EPL experience, including Arsenal and England U19 striker Benik Afobe, Jay Spearing who has played in the CL, Marvin Sordell England U21 striker and Martin Petrov and international with 300 top flight games in the EPL, Primera and Bundesliga.  In addition, the hugley talented Stuart Holden is set to resume full training soon, after missing 18 months and that would be like getting a top quality EPL midfielder in on a free transfer.

They drew 0-0 with highflying Leicester City that night and Wanderers are unbeaten ( 2-4-0) under their new management team and have played four top 7 teams in that sequence, they had a nice 2-1 win at Blackburn Rovers in midweek and supporters are finally starting to see the benefirts of the Freedman rotation policy, which means he will always have someone fresh to bring into the line up. We spoke (see above) the options that he has here at Wanderers and he feels it would be foolish not to use them, a third game inside a week is always going to hand them an advantage and I feel that will be very much the case today. Town had a big win over Forest in midweek, but put everything into that, they have lost their last two on the road by a combined 11-0 and have not posted back to back wins since March. 1.5 units Bolton Wanderers -0.75 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY UPDATE ....

I have put a heavily edited copy of today's email,sent to subscribers this morning, in the post below, you might still find a snippet or two of interest. I have just finished my J-League notes for the morning, they include four selections, one at odds of 7.50, that I really like.  Seven match previews for subscribers today, plus the FA Cup and Golf notes, all for a couple of euros. You can still email me at gowi8@btinternet.com and get supcriptions details, not only could you be on the subscriber list for tomorrow, but also get the rest of December completely free too.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY EMAIL ....

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 30th

Next email will be sent at 16.00 UK time today and will cover the final round of J-League matches.

As usual, on a Friday at this time of year, the focus is on Ligue 2, but I can start with a few words about the FA Cup second round tie between Bradford City and Brentford. City have played a lot of matches, two more than the Bees in the last month, they have played a midweek match for five straight weeks before this and are distracted by their Capital One Cup game with Arsenal in 11 days time. They are a big club at L2 level and really have to have promotion as a priority, they play a JPT game next midweek too. Reading between the lines, I think they will field a strong team today and rest as many as possible for the Port Vale match. It is very cold in the UK, especially up North with below freezing temperatures forecast for kick off.  Brentford will rotate their squad, but we have talked many times about the keen competition for starting places and they have very good options in almost every position. They are keen to win, boss Uwe Rosler has been "promised" he can use any funds generated from a big third round tie to further strengthen the squad, they have had City watched, highlighted some of their set pieces and have been putting in extra work on the training pitch this week to combat these plays. Unfortunately, I think the odds are just about correct, so no involvement from me, however , I can point out that City have been especially vunerable just before the break, conceding 29% of all their goals between the 30-45th minute, duruing the same period the Bees have yet to concede a single goal.

FRANCE LIGUE 2:

ARLES- LE MANS

Hosts did us a favour last week with their derby win at Istres, when I wrote....

The decision to replace Thierry Laurey as Arles coach with youth academy boss Pierre Mosca was not popular with supporters or players alike, but it is done now and everyone has had 18 days to come to terms with the interim appointment. Mosca started with a 3-0 defeat to Laval, but has had 14 virtually free days to work with the players and get his ideas across and they stopped the rot ( one Ligue 2 win in ten) with a 1-0 road cup win, albeit against lowly opposition, last weekend. He now needs to get something from the derby game with neighbours Istres, where a result will get everyone on his side and he is helped in this endeavour by the return from suspension of defensive midfielder Julien Cardy (14-1-0) and from injury, of winger Chaouki Ben Saada (4-0-0), both are big plusses for the new coach, only one loss (to Monaco) in six when Ben Saada plays.

That win has been described as fortunate in several places, as the home side had a man sent off and we saw little from Arles as an offensive unit until very late, but how do you expect a team who had lost seven in a row to play away to a highflying opponent , come out all guns blazing ? They needed to stop the rot and that was mission accomplished, Mosca changed the squad around and must have been overjoyed with the outcome.....

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Arles-Avignon : Yattara, Roques - Cantini, Quintin, Soro, Abdelhamid, N'Diaye, Plessis, Rodriguez, Cardy, Ben Saada, Douniama, Savanier, Akalé, Pieroni, Suarez.

Le Mans : Janot, Makaridze - Buaillon, Doumbia, Koné, Kassai, Cuffaut, Derouard, Zito, Kanté, Thomas, Sanson, Baby, Thomert, Mendes, Sylla.

Arles have scored 42% of their goals in the last 15 minutes of games.

GFCO AJACCIO- CLERMONT

I think it is ......

 

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

GFC Ajaccio : Maury, Gigliarelli - Filippi, Rachidi, Davidas, Kehiha, Romey, Colinet, Dufau, Chevalier, Sinapi, Seymand, Poggi, Laïfa, Collorédo, Saadi, Touré.

Clermont : Farnolle, Fabre - Avinel, Perrinelle, Saïss, Imorou, Esor, Ekobo, Bayod, Capelle, Dembélé, Salibur, Bockhorni, Fomen, Sylla, Armand.

Hosts have scored 50% of their goals in the last 30 minutes.

Clermont have conceded 48% of their goals and scored 52% in the 30 minutes before the break ( 16th-45th minute)

RACING CLUB LENS- LAVAL

Two teams on the up, we highlighted Laval very early in their upturn as a potential improver and I am pleased with that, they have lost just once in eight, a defeat at Le Mans where they paid the price for a slow start, that was "one of those days" when everything went wrong and we can forget that. They were .....

 

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Lens : Kasraoui, Riou - Bergdich, A.Touré, Yahia, Baal, Coeff, Démont, Le Moigne, Plumain, Nomenjanahary, S.Sow, Valdivia, D.N'Diaye, Pollet, Touzghar.

Laval : Balijon, Vanhamel - Belaud, Perrot, Talmont, Falette, Rose, Gonçalves, Betsch, Gamboa, Ewolo, Hamdi, Troaré, Do Marcolino, Viale, Lebouc.

Lens have conceded 55% of all their goals in the last 30 minutes.

Laval conceded 39% in the last 15 minutes.

I can finish with a few words about XXX XXX at the World Challenge .....

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Good Luck.

CONTACT: gowi8@btinternet.com

THURSDAY ....THE BIGGER PICTURE ....

I swerved the maximum stake bet today, that had more to do with limits than anything else, but have put up three selections at odds of 2.06, 2.07 and 4.0, the last two of which are for the weekend and ranked "very strong" (1.75 units), the other is for this evening.

Thank you for the big response to yesterday's post (see below) and please,still feel free to email me on gowi8@btinternet.com , if you are interested in the email service. If not, there will be two emails on each of the next three days for subscribers, which is probably circa 15 previews, so we will probably be able to post one or two either here on the blog, or on the social media pages, but to get to see the full picture, you really need to subscribe and at less than two euros per email, the cost is hardly prohibitive.

This week there will be 11 emails sent to subscribers, the Watford notes two posts down, are just one of  what is likely to be 30 event/ match previews. Not all are that long, but each is a full preview and if you think that there is something of interest in that post, multiply that by 20-30 and then by 182 days, that is what you get for a six month subscription........ even more if you are very quick.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY....THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM ....

If any of you took that 12.0 for Watford to be promoted yesterday, you will have been pleased with the 4-1 win at Sheffield Wednesday and they are already down to circa 9.0.

Not a hugely interesting day today IMO, I have previewed two matches for subscribers, but the real fun this week starts with tomorrow's email. When I am planning to have four selections, two ranked very strong and possibly including just the fourth maximum stake bet of 2012. These are not "bankers" by any means ( I NEVER use that word), but they do fulfill all my criteria ,the other three all won at odds of 2.0 + and I am loathe to mess up that record !

I will have at least two emails for subscribers each day for the rest of the week ( Fri-Sun) and ten emails every seven days is now pretty much the norm and means the service offers even better value for money, if that were possible !

If any of you have ever seriously considered signing up to the email service ( full details are on this link), then now is a very good time to take the plunge. Send me an email at gowi8@btinternet.com , I will send details and do my best to make it as pain free, although not totally cost free, as possible.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

NOTHING'S IM-POZZO-BLE !

Long Term Position Update

I am going to update our overall situation, especially regarding the outstanding long term positions we hold, this week, it is going to be a bit of an epic and I will need two emails to cover everything, but it is worthwhile reading as I believe almost everything I write is, but then, I am biased !

We have had a very good eight months or so on the email service, November has not been kind with two very poor weeks, but they were overdue and still, the entire period has produced a ROI of circa 117% + on red type bets alone, I do not want to get bogged down in these stats, because, as I am tired to saying and you are doubtless sick of hearing, they do not overly matter to me. The black type "suggestions" would have produced even better returns, which are not included and the best value of all, is the actual content.

I write an average of 25-30 previews per week on the email service and in my opinion, some 80% plus of them are very good and most of the rest are OK at worse and almost all will include at least one snippet of useful information, that is probably not freely available elsewhere.

The previews are written to be read, the idea is that you do so and make up your own mind about what, if anything, to bet, there is choice and a degree of substance, most previews are 300-400 words long and the cost of the service is competitive enough that you can be as selective as you wish. There are 10-11 emails most weeks and each costs far less than the Racing Post, which is the main sports betting newspaper in the UK.

This is an important point .... I have a kind of obligation to write about a certain number of matches/events, it is far more of a daily newsletter than a tipping service, there are going to be swings, good and bad, it is like a rollercoaster, we are going to end up in the right place at the finish of the ride, but there will be peaks and troughs along the way, if you decide to bet everything, or all red type selections and not read previews, that is fine, it is your choice, everything is your decision, you will not get as much out of the emails IMO, but it is up to you.

If you do read the emails in full, not only will you get more out of them, but you should quickly be able to tell when I am extra keen on something and this enthusiasm is normally worth following, I have an especially good record with the very long priced picks/suggestions/selections and don't be put off something just because the odds are big, that is a crazy kind of logic. It stands to reason that there will be bets I like much more than others and this is not always indicated by the staking system, which is sometimes restrictive and in the process of being reviewed.

Basically, I write the previews, you make the choice, if you win or lose, you can curse or praise the gambling gods if you wish, but at the end of the day, it is down to you.

I think the service is incredibly good and when the new website starts in early January, it is probably going to get much better, with added options for subscribers.

For the rest of this email(s), I would like to talk about our remaining long term selections, there are not that many, but almost all of our positions are interesting and a couple are incredibly exciting.

Lets start in the Championship, on August 16th I wrote ....

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP: OUTRIGHT

We already have those very early bets ( June 19th) on Watford at big odds 66-1 to win and 14-1 for promotion and they look solid , the Hornets might need time, but the Pozzo family have a blueprint for success and achieved it in double quick time at both Udinese and Granada. They have already begun to ship the players in from the other two clubs, although most are Udinese players anyway and I suspect that this will continue, until they find the right combination/ blend for Watford . Last year Watford finished 11th, just eleven points off the palyoffs, so we are not talking about them needing huge improvement to get involved at the business end. Players like Alex Geijo with 28 goals in 60 Granada starts, Daniel Pudil with Serie A and Champions League experience last season, Almen Abdi ( 33 starts for Udinese last season) etc are going to bring a lot to the Championship and they have been brought in along with some really promising young talent like 19 yo Leo Beleck who scored plenty of goals for the Udinese B team and played 25 matches for AEK in Greece last season. Anyway, the Hornets are now down to 33-1 and 9-1 respectively, we have good value and should get some fun for our money.

I spoke about Cardiff City earlier this week... City have finished top seven in the Championship in each of the last four seasons, losing out in the playoffs in the last three. They have shown terrific bouncebackability each time and are unbeaten on the opening day in each of those campaigns. They have certainly found some form in pre season scoring twelve goals in winning their last four, including a 4-1 thumping of Newcastle United, that was a wonderful performance and the Bluebirds look a much stronger outfit this season, with coach Malky Mackay making seven new signings....Filip Kiss (Slovan Bratislava), Jordan Mutch (Birmingham City), Etien Velikonja (NK Maribor), Kim Bo-Kyung (Cerezo Osaka), Heidar Helguson (Queens Park Rangers), Joe Lewis (Peterborough United) and Craig Bellamy (Liverpool). In Aron Gunnarson they have a young holding midfieder improving with every performance, Peter Whittingham, Mutch,  Bellamy and Bo-Kyung ( who looks an inspired signing) give them a real touch of class, Lewis offers competition for the starting goalkeeping spot and Helguson a real aerial threat, in short, City look the real deal and full of goals, this might well be the season they make it to the promised land of Premier league football. Newcastle boss Alan Pardew said: “They have some very good young players and Bellamy will be a great signing for them. They have a big chance of promotion. The manager is great and I could see them finishing in the top two of the Championship.”

They look far better equipped this year and would be my main pick for the title at circa 12-1 ( 13.0) and if you are on Watford, I would suggest you also take a little on the Bluebirds, as I expect them to go very close.

The earlier notes on Watford were very basic, as we were trying to jump the gun and get on first ...

Sorry, this has to be very quick.

The  Board of Directors, acting on behalf of Watford Football Club, is pleased to confirm that agreement has been reached in principle for the transfer of ownership to the Pozzo family.

Representatives from the family have been in discussions with Watford Football Club and both parties have agreed initial terms.

This is on the official Watford site and has been in the offering for some time, the Pozzo family own Udinese and Granada, they got the Spanish club into the top flight in double quick time and are very shrewd, they sent a lot of promising Udinese players to Spain for long term loans and can be expected to do similar for the Hornets.

Watford finished 11th last year, 11 points off the playoffs and seem sure to go better, with such backing.

They are circa 50-1 to win the Championship and there is even some 66-1 in a place, 12-1 and 14-1 for promotion, none of which is likely to last long, especially if they start to ship players in and those odds are probably too big in any case, so i suggest you take a little.

So, where are we with Cardiff City and Watford ? City are top of the table and are priced as favourites now in most books at a general 3.75.They are 9-0-0 at home and if they had been better able to hold onto a couple of leads on the road, they would be trading at even money now. The Hornets are 11th, ten points off the top, but just two adrift of a playoff spot, they have dropped ten points from winning positions, four of those came against two of the three form teams in the Championship and are worth looking at. Away to Cardiff they led for well over 40 minutes and held out for twenty at 1-1 with nine men, before conceding a last minute winner, they also led for 30m against Middlesbrough, again played a very long time a man short and held out at 1-1 for 30 minutes with ten players. Plenty to take from those, I spoke to someone, a neutral ,who watched the Watford-Leicester City match, the visitors are many peoples idea of the best team in the division, or were until recently and he said that Watford were unplayable for 30-35 minutes. They are a work in progress, it was always going to be like that, we took the huge odds, in case everything clicked and it still might.

Boss Gianfranco Zola said recently his team were "ahead of schedule in their development" and added "I don't know the capabilities of this team. I don't know exactly where we can get to - whether we can get mid-table or the play-offs or whatever. I'm finding out more and more about my team day by day."If you ask me where we can be at the end of the season, I don't know. I'm sure we can do well."

They are currently 33-1 to win the Championship and circa 10-1 to get promotion, a little higher in a place or two and that second quote looks on the big side. Firstly,they have already played a lot of strong teams on the road in Leeds United, Cardiff City , Bolton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers and Crystal Palace. Secondly, the players that they have brought in probably still have improvement in them,  currently a dozen are on loan from Udinese or Granada and Zola has rotated his large squad, so might not even know his best eleven yet. . Also, I wonder what could happen with regard to further and possibly even better loans from the parent club, if Watford made further progress through December, you can also actually play additional "loanees" by making existing deals permanent, which would be a little unethical, if you were later to sell them back, but not against the rules as I understand them. I have no reason to think this will happen, just speculating about what is possible, if that EPL carrot was dangling infront of the Pozzo family and the "parent"club were safe and had nothing to play forin Serie A, which looks highly likely to the case very soon.

Leicester City website: Bright in their movement, smart in possession and watchful in defence, Watford looked a well balanced side and in the lively Forestieri, carried a contstant attcking threat.

We can always take a little chance on big prices, we do not have to be right too often , the rewards are good and they are "cheap" bets, if you are not already on, 12.0 for promotion looks ok and should give you some interest in the coming months, anything further that happens loan or transfer wise, can only be a bonus.

The Premier League notes........REST OF THE NOTES COVERING OUR OUTRIGHT POSITIONS ON THE  EPL, LEAGUE 1, LEAGUE 2 AND NFL ARE AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ....EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING ....

I have previewed five matches today and John has posted one of them in full on the GOWI Facebook page, I have given you the "head up" about the post today, but if you do want to see all the free previews, you will have to check out the social network pages on a regular basis.

I am strong on three of these selections and all the previews are good, they are always good !

My time on Blogger is coming to an end , less than six weeks to go now and it makes me feel a little sad just thinking about it. Close to seven years on here, well over 4,000 posts, a couple of million words, some gibberish, a bit of wisdom, a million + hits, a few misses !

The new website will give us so many more options, that the decision to move is a "no brainer", but that doesn't make leaving any easier !  Anyway, hopefully I can see out the rest of 2012 with some of my best previews on here and Facebook, so check them out !

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com