Loads to pass on today, the email covered 10 (!) matches, from which subscribers will have to make their selections . I feel that some of my ideas from the UK lower leagues are particulary strong and just hope to get the run of the ball this afternoon !
Will put what I can on the blog, so please check back.
Good Luck.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Friday, September 14, 2007
FRENCH LIGUE 2 ......................
Here are this evening's email service football bets, all have been gambled a little through the day.
NIORT - ANGERS
6 points Niort -1/4 ball 1.75 asian line..... now 1.69
GUEUGNON- CLERMONT
6 points "over" 2 goals 1.83 asian line..... now 1.77
LIBOURNE - BASTIA
6 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.93 asian line..... now 1.85
GRENOBLE - BREST
5 points Grenoble -1/2 ball 1.88 asian line..... now 1.82
Niort are really playing well and have three consecutive wins, the very likely return of vital striker Benoit Leroy, will be a massive boost.Hosts are very strong at home, just two defeats in 42 starts and meeting a team weakened in midfield by the missing Djellabi and Brunel.
I have to take the "over" in Gueugnon, where both teams have defensive problems this evening. Hosts will be boosted by the return of their best striker and Clermont have scored and conceded in both away starts.
Hard not to see goals in Libourne, where both look unsteady at the back and whose games are both producing at the rate of over 2.5 per game. Their two meetings last season averaged 5.5 strikes.
Grenoble are an ambitious club and are building a new stadium, ready for Ligue 1. They are very tight at the back and following a first defeat of the season to Le Havre, in their last home start, will be keen to put things right. That game aside, they have conceded just once in 5 matches. Brest are missing both regular central defenders.
Good Luck.
6 points Niort -1/4 ball 1.75 asian line..... now 1.69
GUEUGNON- CLERMONT
6 points "over" 2 goals 1.83 asian line..... now 1.77
LIBOURNE - BASTIA
6 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.93 asian line..... now 1.85
GRENOBLE - BREST
5 points Grenoble -1/2 ball 1.88 asian line..... now 1.82
Niort are really playing well and have three consecutive wins, the very likely return of vital striker Benoit Leroy, will be a massive boost.Hosts are very strong at home, just two defeats in 42 starts and meeting a team weakened in midfield by the missing Djellabi and Brunel.
I have to take the "over" in Gueugnon, where both teams have defensive problems this evening. Hosts will be boosted by the return of their best striker and Clermont have scored and conceded in both away starts.
Hard not to see goals in Libourne, where both look unsteady at the back and whose games are both producing at the rate of over 2.5 per game. Their two meetings last season averaged 5.5 strikes.
Grenoble are an ambitious club and are building a new stadium, ready for Ligue 1. They are very tight at the back and following a first defeat of the season to Le Havre, in their last home start, will be keen to put things right. That game aside, they have conceded just once in 5 matches. Brest are missing both regular central defenders.
Good Luck.
FIFA WOMEN'S WORLD CUP ....
JAPAN - ARGENTINA
Two very big handicaps to cover this morning, but I feel my selections are up to the job. Argentina were hammered 11-0 by Germany, in an (obviously) terrible performance, they will be keen to bounce back, but looked out of condition and this was not a new experience for them. In 2003 they lost all 3 group matches, conceding an average of 5 goals per game, including a 6-0 defeat to Japan, at this same stage.
Japan were fortunate to get something from the match with England, but are deadly with free kicks around the area and their fitness levels were on a different plane to the south americans and that is not something that Argentina can sort out in a couple of days. Germany are next for Japan so a win today and by as many goals as possible, is their only chance to progress.
4.5 points Japan -2 balls 2.23 asian line
KOREA - NIGERIA
Nigeria got a deserved point against Sweden, but got confidence from their opponents inabilty to put away the many chances that they created early in the encounter and the woodwork helped them too.
I feel that they will be bombarded by the Korean's, who beat them 3-0 in the last WC and have developed a shoot on sight policy. They have a fine short passing game, but work on shooting from distance, something that they have perfected and which was the key to winning the U20 World Championship in Moscow. This is based on their body shape, it is better explained by their coach Kim ... who sees the ability to generate ferocious power in their shots as a function of body type and a matter of adding another dimension to the side's well-known ball movement. "Although short passing is our strong suit and something we take great pride in, shooting well from distance is a tremendous weapon," he said. "Certain cultures and body types are suited to different strengths in football. We Koreans are short and stocky, but with powerful, compact muscles in our legs. For this reason we can generate a lot of power. We will never be the best at heading but this is something we can do very well."
Anyone who watched the game against USA where they had an enormous amount of attempts on goal and time after time troubled them from distance, will understand what I mean. The Nigerian goalkeeper is in for a torrid time.
6.5 points Korea -1.5 goals 1.84 asian line
Good Luck.
Two very big handicaps to cover this morning, but I feel my selections are up to the job. Argentina were hammered 11-0 by Germany, in an (obviously) terrible performance, they will be keen to bounce back, but looked out of condition and this was not a new experience for them. In 2003 they lost all 3 group matches, conceding an average of 5 goals per game, including a 6-0 defeat to Japan, at this same stage.
Japan were fortunate to get something from the match with England, but are deadly with free kicks around the area and their fitness levels were on a different plane to the south americans and that is not something that Argentina can sort out in a couple of days. Germany are next for Japan so a win today and by as many goals as possible, is their only chance to progress.
4.5 points Japan -2 balls 2.23 asian line
KOREA - NIGERIA
Nigeria got a deserved point against Sweden, but got confidence from their opponents inabilty to put away the many chances that they created early in the encounter and the woodwork helped them too.
I feel that they will be bombarded by the Korean's, who beat them 3-0 in the last WC and have developed a shoot on sight policy. They have a fine short passing game, but work on shooting from distance, something that they have perfected and which was the key to winning the U20 World Championship in Moscow. This is based on their body shape, it is better explained by their coach Kim ... who sees the ability to generate ferocious power in their shots as a function of body type and a matter of adding another dimension to the side's well-known ball movement. "Although short passing is our strong suit and something we take great pride in, shooting well from distance is a tremendous weapon," he said. "Certain cultures and body types are suited to different strengths in football. We Koreans are short and stocky, but with powerful, compact muscles in our legs. For this reason we can generate a lot of power. We will never be the best at heading but this is something we can do very well."
Anyone who watched the game against USA where they had an enormous amount of attempts on goal and time after time troubled them from distance, will understand what I mean. The Nigerian goalkeeper is in for a torrid time.
6.5 points Korea -1.5 goals 1.84 asian line
Good Luck.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
USA ... MLS ... Cd CHIVAS - LA GALAXY
These two share a stadium, so no home advantage, other than more supporters cheering for the "hosts". Galaxy really need the win if they are to harbour any hopes of a play off spot. H2h wise they hold a big advantage (7-2-2) and have not lost in the last 5 "away" fixtures, winning 3. They finally broke their duck with a 3-1 win over Colorado and will be boosted by the return of Landon Donovan from International duty. Chivas are in good form, but are playing "big brother".
5 points LA Galaxy +3/4 ball 1.82 asian line.
Good Luck.
5 points LA Galaxy +3/4 ball 1.82 asian line.
Good Luck.
THURSDAY PLANS ....
Belgium's failure to hold on to a 2-0 lead, which included twice hitting the woodwork, when holding the two goal advantage, prevented a clean sweep on the blog yesterday.
I have put 4 football selections on the email service today and will try to cover a couple of these on the site. However, I have to go out for a couple of hours, so exactly what, will be determined by time and how the market holds up. To save you keep checking back, it is unlikely that anything will be posted before 17.00 cet.
Good Luck.
I have put 4 football selections on the email service today and will try to cover a couple of these on the site. However, I have to go out for a couple of hours, so exactly what, will be determined by time and how the market holds up. To save you keep checking back, it is unlikely that anything will be posted before 17.00 cet.
Good Luck.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
TURKEY - HUNGARY ....
Hungary are a very young side and improving, but lack experience and struggle on the road, losing at Norway, Greece and Malta, with a 8-1 goal difference. They might easliy freeze in what is sure to be a red hot atmosphere in Istanbul.
Turkey looked to be coasting to qualification, when they won 4-1 in Greece. However, since then, just 2 points from home games with Norway and Bosnia, plus an away trip to Malta, have left them in shock and in desperate need of a convincing performance this evening. Goals are not a problem, they are averaging 2.57 per game, but a leaky defence, is a concern. This attack minded team should have no problem taking the lead and their young opponents head's might then drop, as they did in a heavy defeat in Oslo, where Turkey have still to go.
This is a huge game for Turkey , which they have to win.
6 points Turkey -1.25 goals 1.72 asian line.
Turkey looked to be coasting to qualification, when they won 4-1 in Greece. However, since then, just 2 points from home games with Norway and Bosnia, plus an away trip to Malta, have left them in shock and in desperate need of a convincing performance this evening. Goals are not a problem, they are averaging 2.57 per game, but a leaky defence, is a concern. This attack minded team should have no problem taking the lead and their young opponents head's might then drop, as they did in a heavy defeat in Oslo, where Turkey have still to go.
This is a huge game for Turkey , which they have to win.
6 points Turkey -1.25 goals 1.72 asian line.
Good Luck.
EURO 2008 QUALIFIER .....
KAZAKHSTAN-BELGIUM
Not quite sure what to expect from the host nation, who are international new boys, will the team that beat Serbia turn up, or the one that collected just one point in home starts with Azerbaijan and Armenia. To be honest, think that the last two are more of an indication of their ability. the Serbian coach admitted to making poor decisions in their loss. They are weakened today with the loss of several injured players and two key suspensions.
Belgium have only a small chance of qualification, but that will evaporate to none, unless they collect maximum points today. They showed some fight (finally) in the win over Serbia and surely, will want to extend their campaign with a win.
5 points Belgium -1/2 ball 1.80 asian line.
Not quite sure what to expect from the host nation, who are international new boys, will the team that beat Serbia turn up, or the one that collected just one point in home starts with Azerbaijan and Armenia. To be honest, think that the last two are more of an indication of their ability. the Serbian coach admitted to making poor decisions in their loss. They are weakened today with the loss of several injured players and two key suspensions.
Belgium have only a small chance of qualification, but that will evaporate to none, unless they collect maximum points today. They showed some fight (finally) in the win over Serbia and surely, will want to extend their campaign with a win.
5 points Belgium -1/2 ball 1.80 asian line.
Back later.
WOMEN'S WORLD CUP .... CHINA - DENMARK
This was today's early email selection ...
Hosts look very well prepared for this event, money has been no object of course and they have a coach who is meticulous in her approach and took Sweden to the final, last time round. She has given priority to keeping the players nice and relaxed, believing that they are good enough for the results to take care of themselves. They finished their warm up games with a 4-0 win over Hungary, which could have been an even bigger victory, previously beating England 1-0. The mood in their camp is VERY good.
They have met the physically stronger Danes on 11 occasions and only lost once, winning 7.
Guess that this could be a draw, but I see little chance of China losing, that would be a disaster for team and country. Therefore see the -1/4 ball handicap, where we only lose half with a stalemate, as a strong selection.
6 points China -1/4 ball 1.79 asian line.
Good Luck.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
TUESDAY
I have no selections on the blog today, sorry.
Put just two selections on the email service, the following bet on the Women's World Cup, nearly hit the biggie, with the Koreans leading and then coming VERY close right at the end. It finished 2-2.
5 points North Korea +1.75 goals 1.97 betfair
0.5 point to win 14.5 Betfair.
The other bet is for this evening's action. I will have plenty on the blog tomorrow, so please check back.
Put just two selections on the email service, the following bet on the Women's World Cup, nearly hit the biggie, with the Koreans leading and then coming VERY close right at the end. It finished 2-2.
5 points North Korea +1.75 goals 1.97 betfair
0.5 point to win 14.5 Betfair.
The other bet is for this evening's action. I will have plenty on the blog tomorrow, so please check back.
Monday, September 10, 2007
IRELAND ... EIRCOM LEAGUE ....
CORK CITY - UCD
Cork are still looking for one of the european spots, despite lying in mid table, if they won their two matches in hand they would be level with Shamrock Rovers in 3rd place. Therefore , they remain motivated to win this evening, however, they will be without between 3-5 starters and are not playing at their best. The h2h meetings have thrown up some amazing stats, 10/11 have been "under", with the last 6 at this venue having one goal or less. I would be surprised if this turned into a goal fest given those totals and the hosts injury situation, so am going "under".
5 points "under" 2.5 goals 1.70 exchanges.
1.5 points 1 goal or less 2.75 Expekt// Boyle etc.
Cork are still looking for one of the european spots, despite lying in mid table, if they won their two matches in hand they would be level with Shamrock Rovers in 3rd place. Therefore , they remain motivated to win this evening, however, they will be without between 3-5 starters and are not playing at their best. The h2h meetings have thrown up some amazing stats, 10/11 have been "under", with the last 6 at this venue having one goal or less. I would be surprised if this turned into a goal fest given those totals and the hosts injury situation, so am going "under".
5 points "under" 2.5 goals 1.70 exchanges.
1.5 points 1 goal or less 2.75 Expekt// Boyle etc.
Good Luck.
FINLAND ... JARO - TAMPERE
Both teams are missing several players, but that will be less of a concern to the visitors, who have a far deeper squad. They have lost just once in 10 starts and can go 6 points clear at the top of the table with a win this evening and will arrive with positive expectations. Tampere have won on their last 4 visits here, scoring at least two goals on each occasion. Home and away they are 9-1-0 in ten meetings, again scoring 2+ in all the wins.
Jaro have not scored in their last 2 home starts and have conceded 10 in the last two matches played, infact, this season, only bottom club Oulu, have conceded more.
4.5 points Tampere -1/2 ball 1.87 asian line.
Jaro have not scored in their last 2 home starts and have conceded 10 in the last two matches played, infact, this season, only bottom club Oulu, have conceded more.
4.5 points Tampere -1/2 ball 1.87 asian line.
Good Luck.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
USPGA TOUR GOLF ...
BMW CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF
TIGER WOODS -JUSTIN ROSE
Tiger sits in 3rd place, just one stroke behind the joint leaders, but a huge 4 strokes ahead of his partner Rose. He will be confident of passing them and taking this title, he will be less concerned about Rose, who may be able to slip stream and get towed along by Woods.
Really see massive value in Rose, who in his last 4 outings in contention, has bettered the leaders average score on each occasion, he has really become a big time player. See no reason why he cannot at least close the gap on the best player in the world. The added value is that Tiger might be forced to go for his shots, if things do not go his way early and take chances, Rose is unlikely to be in that position, if he is, then our bet is probably going well !
4.5 points Rose to beat Woods 3.2 Pinnacle.
JONATHAN BYRD - TIM CLARK
Byrd is a very good round 4 player and is ranked 3rd in 2007 and 20th last year, this compares incredibly well with Clark who is a dismal 134-138. That equates to 3.55 strokes per round worse, a massive advantage to Byrd.
4.5 points Byrd to beat Clark 2.15 Pinnacle.
TIGER WOODS -JUSTIN ROSE
Tiger sits in 3rd place, just one stroke behind the joint leaders, but a huge 4 strokes ahead of his partner Rose. He will be confident of passing them and taking this title, he will be less concerned about Rose, who may be able to slip stream and get towed along by Woods.
Really see massive value in Rose, who in his last 4 outings in contention, has bettered the leaders average score on each occasion, he has really become a big time player. See no reason why he cannot at least close the gap on the best player in the world. The added value is that Tiger might be forced to go for his shots, if things do not go his way early and take chances, Rose is unlikely to be in that position, if he is, then our bet is probably going well !
4.5 points Rose to beat Woods 3.2 Pinnacle.
JONATHAN BYRD - TIM CLARK
Byrd is a very good round 4 player and is ranked 3rd in 2007 and 20th last year, this compares incredibly well with Clark who is a dismal 134-138. That equates to 3.55 strokes per round worse, a massive advantage to Byrd.
4.5 points Byrd to beat Clark 2.15 Pinnacle.
Good Luck.
MEN'S US OPEN TENNIS FINAL .........
FEDERER- DJOKOVICTime for a close final, think that Djokovic has lost his fear of Fedex and is obviously going to take a grand slam, sometime soon. In their final in Montreal, Djoko won each of his sets on a tie break, which proved he has great nerve and that should serve him well this evening.He will take heart from Davydenko's performance against the world number one, that match was much closer than the 3-0 in sets appears and someone with a little more armoury, might have wrestled that match from Fedex. In his semi and quarter, Djoko has only given up one break point per set. This will be fun to watch !
5.5 points "over" 36.5 games 1.91 general.
1 point Federer to win 3-2 sets 8.5 general.
sorry, sets should read 3-2 , not with it today, a little sick and not happy about the Brentford match !!!!!! Thanks anon.
Good Luck.
SUNDAY .... EARLY KICK OFFS
LEAGUE 2 .... PETERBOROUGH - MANSFIELD
After a couple of shoddy performances, especially defensively, Boro look to be back on track and living up to the pre season hype. A win today could take them into 4th spot in the table and they meet a Stags team very short of options in midfield ( bell suspended, two injured), where the hosts are strong.
Peterborough won at Accrington, who boosted the form yesterday, with 56% possession and a huge 13 attempts on target and followed up with a come from behind win, at Div 1 favourites Nottingham Forest.
6 points Peterborough -3/4 1.78 asian line.
SERIE B .... BOLOGNA - RAVENNA
Two unbeaten sides, but with very different ambitions, having lost the 3 big names last season, Bologna are looking to secure one of the automatic promotion spots. They have a talented squad, strong in midfield and will be looking for improved home performances, they are likely to
start with 3 strikers today and, having drawn their previous home start 0-0, will not want to fall into the same trap of last season, where they dropped too many unnecessary home points, against weaker teams.
Ravenna will be happy to simply remain in Serie B and overall, the squad looks a little short on quality.
5.5 points Bologna -3/4 ball 1.98.
After a couple of shoddy performances, especially defensively, Boro look to be back on track and living up to the pre season hype. A win today could take them into 4th spot in the table and they meet a Stags team very short of options in midfield ( bell suspended, two injured), where the hosts are strong.
Peterborough won at Accrington, who boosted the form yesterday, with 56% possession and a huge 13 attempts on target and followed up with a come from behind win, at Div 1 favourites Nottingham Forest.
6 points Peterborough -3/4 1.78 asian line.
SERIE B .... BOLOGNA - RAVENNA
Two unbeaten sides, but with very different ambitions, having lost the 3 big names last season, Bologna are looking to secure one of the automatic promotion spots. They have a talented squad, strong in midfield and will be looking for improved home performances, they are likely to
start with 3 strikers today and, having drawn their previous home start 0-0, will not want to fall into the same trap of last season, where they dropped too many unnecessary home points, against weaker teams.Ravenna will be happy to simply remain in Serie B and overall, the squad looks a little short on quality.
5.5 points Bologna -3/4 ball 1.98.
Back later.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
SLOVAKIA - IRELAND
Ireland are often let down by their form away from home, but will have been boosted by the 4-0 win in Denmark, albeit in a friendly. Slovakia look a decent side at times and then tthrow in the odd stinker, they certainly have goals in them, scoring 16 in 7 group starts, only Germany have registered more.
For the hosts, only a win will do and with very tough fixtures to come, you can argue the same for the visitors. Slovakia are bound to attack from the start and can welcome back top scorer Mintal, sooner or later, Ireland will also be forced forward. The goal line here really surprises me and seems to offer little downside.
6 points over 2 goals 1.67 asian line.
For the hosts, only a win will do and with very tough fixtures to come, you can argue the same for the visitors. Slovakia are bound to attack from the start and can welcome back top scorer Mintal, sooner or later, Ireland will also be forced forward. The goal line here really surprises me and seems to offer little downside.
6 points over 2 goals 1.67 asian line.
Good Luck.
EURO 2004 ...
BELARUS - ROMANIA
I can only see an away win. Romania sit on top of their group , but have to keep the pressure on, with two very good sides in Netherlands and Bulgaria, breathing down their necks. Hosts are out of contention and often let their heads drop when going a goal down.
6 points Romania -3/4 ball 1.68 asian line
I can only see an away win. Romania sit on top of their group , but have to keep the pressure on, with two very good sides in Netherlands and Bulgaria, breathing down their necks. Hosts are out of contention and often let their heads drop when going a goal down.
6 points Romania -3/4 ball 1.68 asian line
Good Luck.
EURO 2008 ........
RUSSIA - MACEDONIA
MUST WIN game for the hosts who sit in 3rd place in the goup, behind Croatia and Israel and just ahead of England, who they meet in midweek at Wembley. They will win this, the only question is will the second goal come ? I feel that they will not want to take any chances and will not sit back and try to conserve energy, until the two goal cushion is secured. They took the reverse leg by that scoreline. Russia to win 2-0. Macedonia seem to lack some motivation for this and are already saying that the next match is more important to them.
5 points Russia -1.5 balls 1.79 asian line.
MUST WIN game for the hosts who sit in 3rd place in the goup, behind Croatia and Israel and just ahead of England, who they meet in midweek at Wembley. They will win this, the only question is will the second goal come ? I feel that they will not want to take any chances and will not sit back and try to conserve energy, until the two goal cushion is secured. They took the reverse leg by that scoreline. Russia to win 2-0. Macedonia seem to lack some motivation for this and are already saying that the next match is more important to them.
5 points Russia -1.5 balls 1.79 asian line.
Back later.
ENGLAND DIVISION 2 .... ACCRINGTON STANLEY - GRIMSBY TOWN
Stanley have really struggled with life in the football league and seem to lack the resources to get to the next level. They are already bottom of the pile and look set for a long season.
Grimsby have a 0-3-1 record, losing just once, last week at leaders Shrewsbury, in a game they did not deserve to lose, enjoying 54% possession and winning the shot count 12-6. They have been dominating games without getting the end result. Someone was going to get a hammering soon and that turned out to be league 1 side, Huddersfield, in midweek, who arrived with a full strength team ( 9 that started v Millwall) and lost 4-1.
That gives Town something to build on and I fully expect them to follow up this afternoon.
5.5 points Grimsby level ball 2.085 asian line
Grimsby have a 0-3-1 record, losing just once, last week at leaders Shrewsbury, in a game they did not deserve to lose, enjoying 54% possession and winning the shot count 12-6. They have been dominating games without getting the end result. Someone was going to get a hammering soon and that turned out to be league 1 side, Huddersfield, in midweek, who arrived with a full strength team ( 9 that started v Millwall) and lost 4-1.
That gives Town something to build on and I fully expect them to follow up this afternoon.
5.5 points Grimsby level ball 2.085 asian line
Good Luck.
DOMESTIC FOOTBALL ........
BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP ... WEYMOUTH - EBBSFLEET
We talked about Ebbsfleet's defensive problems in midweek and they have not eased at all, they will again have to start with players out of position. To cap it all they lost their goalkeeper yesterday, he has been in good form, but gone to find a club closer to home.
Weymouth are traditionally strong at home and played well in a midweek draw at Woking, where they created a lot of chances, before conceding a late equaliser.
5 points Weymouth -1/4 ball 1.98 asian line
Good Luck.
We talked about Ebbsfleet's defensive problems in midweek and they have not eased at all, they will again have to start with players out of position. To cap it all they lost their goalkeeper yesterday, he has been in good form, but gone to find a club closer to home.
Weymouth are traditionally strong at home and played well in a midweek draw at Woking, where they created a lot of chances, before conceding a late equaliser.
5 points Weymouth -1/4 ball 1.98 asian line
Good Luck.
SATURDAY PLANS ......
Very interesting day, with a host of absolutely crucial Euro 2008 matches alongside some key domestic fixtures. I have a lot of information to pass on / share and will be posting a lot through the course of the day.
Wow ! That Justine Henin is a difficult player to beat, her playing level never drops for more than a game or two and she is such a fighter. Pound for pound she must be mentally and physically the toughest sportsman out there.
There are some rumours doing the rounds that she is seriously considering retiring shortly, I would be very keen to know if anyone has read anything about this, so please let me know.
Back shortly.
Wow ! That Justine Henin is a difficult player to beat, her playing level never drops for more than a game or two and she is such a fighter. Pound for pound she must be mentally and physically the toughest sportsman out there.
There are some rumours doing the rounds that she is seriously considering retiring shortly, I would be very keen to know if anyone has read anything about this, so please let me know.
Back shortly.
Friday, September 07, 2007
DIVISION 2 ........... THE GUV'NOR'S BOYS ...
MILTON KEYNES DONS - NOTTS COUNTY
Paul Ince's MK Dons are creating chances for fun, playing well box to box, but failing to finish teams off and falling asleep at the back for 4-5 minutes per game . They have worked hard to adjust this in midweek and are happy with the way the central defensive partnership, which has been a problem , has gelled. Man for man, this is a very strong team, as they have proved in half a dozen matches against Championship and Premiership sides this season, more than holding their own, on every occasion.
Paul Ince's MK Dons are creating chances for fun, playing well box to box, but failing to finish teams off and falling asleep at the back for 4-5 minutes per game . They have worked hard to adjust this in midweek and are happy with the way the central defensive partnership, which has been a problem , has gelled. Man for man, this is a very strong team, as they have proved in half a dozen matches against Championship and Premiership sides this season, more than holding their own, on every occasion.
Think they will run out easy winners this evening against a County side, that shows promise, but are finding goals hard to come by. They will want the points ahead of fixtures against two early leaders and unbeaten sides in Brentford (!) and Darlington.
4.5 points MK Dons -1/2 ball 1.87 asian line.
Good Luck.
ENGLAND ..... DIVISION 2 ..... CHESTERFIELD - BURY
The hosts have started strongly this season, but have been over performing in relation to chances created and have several players carrying knocks. They have only managed 9 shots on target this campaign, a league low total.
Bury have produced 26 and been playing well, without their just reward, they have no injury concerns and could just produce a surprise here. In their 2-1 home loss to Brentford last weekend, they missed a host of chances and described the defeat, as "being mugged". Well, they have the opportunity to put things right this evening and have had a free midweek to prepare, the hosts are playing their third game in 6 days.
4.5 points Bury +3/4 ball 1.81 asian line.
Good Luck.
4.5 points Bury +3/4 ball 1.81 asian line.
Good Luck.
US OPEN TENNIS .... WOMEN'S SEMI FINALS
SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA - ANNA CHAKVETADZE
This is Chakvetadze's first grand slam semi and, like her opponent, I have doubts about the youngster handling the pressure. As we have discussed before, there is normally a graduation to these things, a semi before a final and so on, there is an enormous amount of pressure in grand slams, which allied to tiredness, ensures that we, nearly always, get a true winner.
Kuznetsova is a previous winner here and also has two doubles finals to her name, she feels very comfortable on the show courts and since the opening rounds, her game has really improved, with the unforced errors being kept to a minimum.
That is not the same for Chakvetadze, who is making a whole heap and also gave Peer 9 break points, despite losing just 5 games in their quarter final. Kuznetsova won their previous two meeting, one on a slow and one on the grass of Wimbledon and should make it a hat-trick this evening.
6 points Kuznetsova to beat Chakvetadze 1.55 + exchanges
JUSTINE HENIN - VENUS WILLIAMS
Henin beat Serena Williams by playing an ultra agressive game, those tactics will not be so easy against Venus, who went to the net 55 times against Jankovic in the last round. Only one player in history (Hingis) has beaten both sisters in a grand slam and that left her exhausted in the final that followed.
Venus is playing with a lot of confidence and holds a 7-1 record over Henin, they have not met in 4 years so we cannot read too much into those stats, but at least it means that the American is coming into the arena with positive mental memories.
4 points Williams to beat Henin 2.86 exchanges.
Back later with some football.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
SHHHH ! THE BOOKMAKERS ARE SLEEPING !
Very quiet day today, with just two small selections.MLS CD CHIVAS - WASHINGTON UNITED
The two most inform teams in the MLS, go head to head tonight.
Chivas have won their last 3 without conceding and 5 of their last 6. United really are on fire with 6 straight wins and a 14-1 goal difference, they have not tasted defeat since July 22.
The hosts are defending an unbeaten (7-1-0) home record, but are still looking for their first win over the visitors, who have won all 5 meetings, scoring at least 2 goals on each occasion.
It is in this department that DC really have an edge, up front, they have several options including top scorer Emilo (14 goals) and MLS all time leading marksman , Jamie Moreno, ably supported by a midfield that has contributed 20 goals. The middle 4 look very classy and are playing at a high level, with the Brazilian , Fred, pulling the strings and finding a lot of space.
Chivas are very tight defensively at home, but are dependent on the goals of Cuban striker Galindo and his partner, Razov, keep those two quiet and they struggle to score. They are without the suspended Alex Zotinca this evening.
Going to side with the visitors, they are in fantastic form and seem to have the home team's "number".
4.5 points Washington +1/4 ball 1.73 asian line.
Good Luck.
BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP ... STAFFORD RANGERS - HALIFAX TOWN
Stafford are facing a very long season, they are 0-1-5 and have only found the net, on three occasions. In Town, they are meeting a side with a better record ( 1-3-2), in reasonable form, following up a 3-0 home win over Droylsden, with a fine 1-1 draw at league bigwigs Oxford at the weekend. More importantly Halifax are a club fighting for their very existence.
They survived a winding up petition in the high court yesterday, earning a 28 day adjournment, during which they have to try and complete the sale of the club. A fighting performance in front of the television cameras is ideal and I think they will be extremely motivated. They did the double over Stafford last season, scoring 3 goals on each occasion and look to have goals in them. Town can call upon a finally, fully fit, Steve Torpey 7 goals in 17 appearances and Andy Campbell, who has played at the highest level and is looking to rebuid his career, 9 in 18, including 5 in just 6 starts this season.
4.5 points Halifax level ball 1.73 asian line.
Good luck.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
COPA DEL REY ....
XEREZ CD - RACING DE FERROL
We do not normally look towards Segunda teams for goals, but when these two meet, it is normally an open encounter.
Last 8 meetings have all produced two or more, with both sides scoring on 7 occasions.
Each has recorded similar statistics in their two league matches this season, all 4 games are 2+ with a 3.0 per game average.
Early rounds of the cup have tended to produce goals in recent seasons and this should follow suit.
5 points "over" 2.25 goals 2.11 asian line.
Good Luck.
BRAZIL .... SERIE A .... JUVENTUDE - CRUZEIRO
Cruzeiro are in fine form and are 7-2-1 in their last 10 starts, scoring 27 goals a league high total, which includes 14 in the last 4 matches.
It is only the outstanding run of Sao Paulo which has kept them off the top of the table. They are 8 points behind, with a game in hand and cannot afford to slip furher behind. Away from home they have been equally prolific, scoring 22 in 10 starts, again a league high total and recording 5 wins.
The hosts have won just twice in 10 starts, against woeful America and Goias, given their lowly position I think it is fair to say that they targeted those games, as "must wins" and gave everything to get a result. They are very leaky at the back, conceding almost two goals per game and it is hard to see Cruzeiro, who have scored two or more in 17 of 22 matches, fairing less well.
The hosts have won just twice in 10 starts, against woeful America and Goias, given their lowly position I think it is fair to say that they targeted those games, as "must wins" and gave everything to get a result. They are very leaky at the back, conceding almost two goals per game and it is hard to see Cruzeiro, who have scored two or more in 17 of 22 matches, fairing less well.
4.5 points Cruzeiro -1/4 ball 1.94 asian line.
Good Luck.
US OPEN TENNIS ... ATP .... NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO - TOMMY HAAS
Davydenko looks in good shape and has yet to drop a set, or even be taken to a tie break, but that could be set to change today.
Tommy Haas has had a much tougher ride, going to a 5th set in each of his last two wins and playing 18 sets, compared to the 12 of his Russian opponent. Sometimes he seems to lack motivation, but Haas is world class on his day and once he gets into a tournament, is hard to kill off.
Davydenko knows this already, their two hardcourt meetings having gone the distance. He won their battle here at the same stage last year and Haas took the spoils in Australia, at the beginning of the year.
Unless one of these retires ( in which case we have stakes refunded) I cannot see this being quick and like the "over" games.
"Over" 40.5 games 1.943 Pinnacle.
Good Luck.
US OPEN TENNIS .... WTA .... ANNA CHAKVETADZE - SHAHAR PEER
Shahar Peer has yet to let us down at the US Open and I am loathe to oppose her today.
Chakvetadze has had a fine old time on hardcourts this year, but 23 unforced errors in the second set, against an opponent who appeared injured, in the last round, hardly inspires confidence. Especially against Peer, who makes so few mistakes herself .
The two have met three times before, all on hard courts, with the Russian leading 2-1, however, my selection took the last meeting, in Indian Wells earlier this year.
Peer was the only player in the latter stages of the Australian Open to push Serena Williams all the way and I cannot get that performance out of my mind. She claims to be close to that level of form, if that is the case, for me, she will win, no question.
Whatever happens, this looks a price that is sure to trade lower at some stage of the match, so a great hedging opportunity.
4 points Peer 2.62 + Pinnacle / Exchanges
Good Luck.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
TODAY'S FOOTBALL ....
I have not been in the best of form recently and really had some horrendous luck. However, that is gambling and you have to take it on the chin, there is nothing wrong with the quality of the information.
Reproduced below is today's email selections, they might all lose, but all have been gambled on and we on the right side.
JOHNSTONE'S PAINT TROPHY
SWINDON TOWN - BRENTFORD
The Bees are unbeaten in the league and that has surpassed everyone's expectations. They are going to make as many changes this evening, as their small squad will allow and are definitely giving the league priority, especially ahead of a local derby with Wycombe, at the weekend. They are certainly short of striking options, a modest defeat would probably not upset too many at Griffin Park.
Swindon will also make some changes, taking the opportunity to blood their 3 new signings, whom we must assume,will be eager to impress.
5 points Swindon -1/2 ball asian line 1.88. now -3/4 ball 1.97
BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP // CONFERENCE
EBBSFLEET - HISTON
Histon have won their last two without conceeding and are certainly coming to terms with life in the Conference.Those wins are even more impressive when you realise that they came against Grays and Salisbury, both previously unbeaten.
Fleet have severe defensive problems, they had to play a midfielder in the back four at the weekend and missing another defender this evening, might have to make it two playing out of position.
5.5 points Histon +1/2 ball 1.99 asian line. now 1.91
YORK CITY - ALTRINCHAM
I have to give York one more chance, how they failed to beat Rushden at the weekend remains one of life's great mysteries. They have really strengthened the squad in the last week and added a goalkeeper yesterday.With a really tough run of fixtures ahead, 3 of their next 4 away, with the home tie against league favourites Stevenage.
4.5 points York -3/4 ball 1.98 asian line. now 1.78
SCOTTISH CHALLENGE CUP
FORFAR - AYR
Hosts are really short of form, they have beaten only league whipping boys Elgin this season and options, with 3 key players missing, leaving them vunerable at the back .... more so than normal. Ayr are a division and 13 league places higher and have scored 2 + goals in their last 5 starts, winning their last two with a 6-0 goal difference. After a slow start they are on fire and should romp this.
6 points Ayr -1/2 ball 1.78 asian line. now 1.68
SWINDON TOWN - BRENTFORD
The Bees are unbeaten in the league and that has surpassed everyone's expectations. They are going to make as many changes this evening, as their small squad will allow and are definitely giving the league priority, especially ahead of a local derby with Wycombe, at the weekend. They are certainly short of striking options, a modest defeat would probably not upset too many at Griffin Park.
Swindon will also make some changes, taking the opportunity to blood their 3 new signings, whom we must assume,will be eager to impress.
5 points Swindon -1/2 ball asian line 1.88. now -3/4 ball 1.97
BLUE SQUARE PREMIERSHIP // CONFERENCE
EBBSFLEET - HISTON
Histon have won their last two without conceeding and are certainly coming to terms with life in the Conference.Those wins are even more impressive when you realise that they came against Grays and Salisbury, both previously unbeaten.
Fleet have severe defensive problems, they had to play a midfielder in the back four at the weekend and missing another defender this evening, might have to make it two playing out of position.
5.5 points Histon +1/2 ball 1.99 asian line. now 1.91
YORK CITY - ALTRINCHAM
I have to give York one more chance, how they failed to beat Rushden at the weekend remains one of life's great mysteries. They have really strengthened the squad in the last week and added a goalkeeper yesterday.With a really tough run of fixtures ahead, 3 of their next 4 away, with the home tie against league favourites Stevenage.
4.5 points York -3/4 ball 1.98 asian line. now 1.78
SCOTTISH CHALLENGE CUP
FORFAR - AYR
Hosts are really short of form, they have beaten only league whipping boys Elgin this season and options, with 3 key players missing, leaving them vunerable at the back .... more so than normal. Ayr are a division and 13 league places higher and have scored 2 + goals in their last 5 starts, winning their last two with a 6-0 goal difference. After a slow start they are on fire and should romp this.
6 points Ayr -1/2 ball 1.78 asian line. now 1.68
Good Luck.
US OPEN TENNIS .....
JUSTINE HENIN - SERENA WILLIAMS
I have to side with Serena tonight at massive odds. Henin holds a 6-5 h2h advantage, but only one of those wins has come on a fast court, even that went to a decider.
The Belgian has not won a grand slam outside of Paris for three years and given the conditions, her restrictive odds make very little sense.
Williams has not played since Wimbledon, but much like in Australia at the turn of the year, she is playing herself back to full fitness and improving round by round.
5.5 points Serena williams to win a set 1.725 Pinnacle// exchanges.
1.5 points Serena to win 2-0 sets 6.56 Pinnacle// exchanges.
Back Later.
Monday, September 03, 2007
USPGA TOUR ....DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP TWO BALLS
TIGER WOODS - PHIL MICKELSON
Absolute sponsors dream, with these two paired together in 3rd and 4th place and live on television, on a holiday monday in the US !
They played together on day's one and two in their 3 balls, Big Phil winning by two strokes on friday and both shooting 64's on day 2. This is the first time that they have played a final round together in over 2 years.
Overall, they have teed off together 18 times , with Tiger winning 9 on nine occasions, considering that stakes are refunded on the tie, I see a little value in Mickelson at 2.70, under the circumstances. He is sure to be very motivated and will be desperate to put all concerns about his wrist injury to bed, once and for all. His final round record is not as good as Woods, but that is mainly because when off the pace, his concentration wanders,in contention, he is a very different animal !
4.5 points Mickelson 2.70 Pinnacle.
BO VAN PELT - TROY MATTESON
I have to take Van Pelt, who is the number one ranked round 4 player on tour this year, averaging 69.31 strokes per round. Matteson is ranked 163 , with a 72.67 stroke average, 3.36 shots worse, a hige amount. In 15 final rounds on tour this season , he has shot 73 or higher, on 9 occasions.
5 points Van Pelt 1.952 Pinnacle.
Absolute sponsors dream, with these two paired together in 3rd and 4th place and live on television, on a holiday monday in the US !
They played together on day's one and two in their 3 balls, Big Phil winning by two strokes on friday and both shooting 64's on day 2. This is the first time that they have played a final round together in over 2 years.
Overall, they have teed off together 18 times , with Tiger winning 9 on nine occasions, considering that stakes are refunded on the tie, I see a little value in Mickelson at 2.70, under the circumstances. He is sure to be very motivated and will be desperate to put all concerns about his wrist injury to bed, once and for all. His final round record is not as good as Woods, but that is mainly because when off the pace, his concentration wanders,in contention, he is a very different animal !
4.5 points Mickelson 2.70 Pinnacle.
BO VAN PELT - TROY MATTESON
I have to take Van Pelt, who is the number one ranked round 4 player on tour this year, averaging 69.31 strokes per round. Matteson is ranked 163 , with a 72.67 stroke average, 3.36 shots worse, a hige amount. In 15 final rounds on tour this season , he has shot 73 or higher, on 9 occasions.
5 points Van Pelt 1.952 Pinnacle.
Good Luck.
GERMANY BUNDESLIGA 2 ....
FREIBURG - TSG 1899 HOFFENHEIM
A decade ago, Hoffenheim were playing in the 7th level of German football. After some limited success, a new owner, the founder of SAP took over and the club took off. They are extremely ambitious and are currently having a 30,000 seater stadium built, in preparation for the Bundesliga. Ralf Rangnick, a hugely experienced coach, formerly with Stuttgart, Hannover and Schalke, was employed, with a 5 year plan to get into the top tier, he earned them promotion last season and they look ahead of schedule.
They have been huge spenders and before the deadline invested some 20m euros + on Edu ( Nigeria) , Eduardo ( Brazil) and Demba Ba ( Senegal), three youngsters with immense promise.
Freiburg look to have gone backwards and after missing out on promotion last season, lost their coach and several key players.
The visitors are worthwhile following for a few weeks and we have to start today.
4 points Hoffenheim +3/4 ball 1.78 asian line.
A decade ago, Hoffenheim were playing in the 7th level of German football. After some limited success, a new owner, the founder of SAP took over and the club took off. They are extremely ambitious and are currently having a 30,000 seater stadium built, in preparation for the Bundesliga. Ralf Rangnick, a hugely experienced coach, formerly with Stuttgart, Hannover and Schalke, was employed, with a 5 year plan to get into the top tier, he earned them promotion last season and they look ahead of schedule.
They have been huge spenders and before the deadline invested some 20m euros + on Edu ( Nigeria) , Eduardo ( Brazil) and Demba Ba ( Senegal), three youngsters with immense promise.
Freiburg look to have gone backwards and after missing out on promotion last season, lost their coach and several key players.
The visitors are worthwhile following for a few weeks and we have to start today.
4 points Hoffenheim +3/4 ball 1.78 asian line.
Good Luck.
US OPEN TENNIS ... WTA
SHAHAR PEER - AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA
Think that Peer is very comfortable on these hardcourts, as I discussed in the previous round.
Think that Peer is very comfortable on these hardcourts, as I discussed in the previous round.
Radwanska is a very promising 18 yo and I pointed out her and her sister, as players to watch out for, in the blog one year ago. She beat defending champion Maria Sharapova in the last round and now, all eyes will be on her. The wind played a big part in that game and the Russian could not handle it, or put any pressure on her young Polish opponent, when she was at her most vunerable. Radwanska admitted to getting the "shakes" when serving late in the match and all Sharapova could do was make unforced errors.
Feel that Peer will put the pressure on from the start and should know too much for Radwanska at this stage, btw, her sister is probably even better (at least potentially).... the Polish are coming !
5 points Peer 1.752 Pinnacle // Betfair.
5 points Peer 1.752 Pinnacle // Betfair.
Good Luck.
" OVERS " ...........
SERIE A .... MILAN - FIORENTINA
I like the "over" here, these two normally provide plenty of entertainment, since Fiorentina returned to A, five of the six meetings have been "over", with 4 producing 4 or more goals. They both scored 3 on the opening day and Italian football seems to be going through a real change at present, with some very open, end to end play.
5 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.75 asian line.
1 point "over" 4.5 goals 7.6 Betfair.
NORWAY TIPPELIGAEN ... STABAEK - FREDRIKSTAD
Last 4 h2h meetings have produced 3 or more goals, at an average of 4.25. Stabaek are "over" in 5 from 6 and are averaging 2.89 in all home games. The visitors are "over" in their last 3 and road games are producing at the rate of 3.44 per match.
Hosts have conceded 2 or more in 5/6 and Fredrikstad have score exactly 2 in their last 3, so also going to try a small correct score here.
6 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.55 general.
1 point 2-2 draw 13.0 general ... bigger on the exchanges for small money.
I like the "over" here, these two normally provide plenty of entertainment, since Fiorentina returned to A, five of the six meetings have been "over", with 4 producing 4 or more goals. They both scored 3 on the opening day and Italian football seems to be going through a real change at present, with some very open, end to end play.
5 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.75 asian line.
1 point "over" 4.5 goals 7.6 Betfair.
NORWAY TIPPELIGAEN ... STABAEK - FREDRIKSTAD
Last 4 h2h meetings have produced 3 or more goals, at an average of 4.25. Stabaek are "over" in 5 from 6 and are averaging 2.89 in all home games. The visitors are "over" in their last 3 and road games are producing at the rate of 3.44 per match.
Hosts have conceded 2 or more in 5/6 and Fredrikstad have score exactly 2 in their last 3, so also going to try a small correct score here.
6 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.55 general.
1 point 2-2 draw 13.0 general ... bigger on the exchanges for small money.
Back shortly.
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