SATURDAY ....

EPL
ASTON VILLA - BLACKBURN ROVERS

There have been some incredibly high scoring encounters between these two clubs at Villa Park in recent seasons and given the team news today, I see this being little different. Last five h2h meetings here have ended 3-2. 3-1, 6-4, 3-1 and 3-1, the last of which was a FA Cup tie less than a month ago. The reverse league game at Ewood Park "only" produced two goals with Villa failing to register, but it was not for want of trying as they had 11 attempts on target, a big number on the road in the EPL. Hosts have struggled to keep clean sheets all season and can claim just one in 20 outings going back to late October, that came against Manchester City and the highflying Blues had 24 attempts on goal, so it is clear where Villa's problems lie, those problems have been compounded today with the news that they are without both starting centre backs in James Collins and Carlos Cuellar. Rovers are perennial poor travellers and have conceded a league high 31 times on the road, with a massive 23 allowed in their last 8 away starts in all competitions. Their giant defender Christopher Samba is expected to play but has been suffering with a virus this week and might be less than 100% fit, all in all, goals look very likely .

"over" 2.75 goals 2.19

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

I hope that some of you made use of my pre match notes yeseterday, as there were some solid clues there. These are in addition to my standard previews and are meant to be used as an aid to betting "in running", my notes clearly indicated that Coventry struggled against the top sides and that Swansea might be the more motivated of the two, also that Portsmouth had a poor first half record, yet were generally playing well.

My half time notes, sent within a minute or two of the first half ending by email, indicated that I thought Swansea might do enough to win ( then -0.25 2.13), but that I rated Portsmouth, who had totally dominated the first half a very solid bet @ -0.25 1.90 (my only in play selection). Pompey completed a 1-0 win which was far more comfortable than the scoreline might suggest.

There are real profits to be made on the "in play" markets, but the bonus is that by watching these lower league games live, you are picking up so much information for the future, I have never watched a game that I have not learned something from and I would urge you to get out there and visit your local club.

Good luck with all your bets today.

"LIVE" GAME PRE MATCH NOTES / TEAM NEWS

CHAMPIONSHIP

COVENTRY CITY - SWANSEA CITY

Hosts have managed just one clean sheet in ten starts and a very poor record against the top six, losing all ten starts this season. Swansea are unbeaten in eight h2h starts against the Sky Blues and arrive in good form with seven goals in their last two matches, with a big promotion "six pointer" with Leeds at the weeeknd they will be desperate for maximum points tonight and with Coventry having a big derby game on saturday and little to play for in the league, at least subconsiously their priorities might be elsewhere.

confirmed : Beattie, Pratley and Britton return.

Swansea City: De Vries, Williams, Taylor, Tate (c), Pratley, Beattie, Dyer, Sinclair, Rangel, Gower, Britton

Subs: Ma-Kalambay (GK), Van Der Gun, Dobbie, Moore, Allen, Agustien, Richards

Coventry: Keiren Westwood (C); Richard Keogh, Stephen O'Halloran, David Bell, Marlon King, Lukas Jutkiewicz, Martin Cranie, Aron Gunnarsson, Carl Baker, Richard Wood, Nathan Cameron.

Subs: Daniel Ireland (GK), Sammy Clingan, Freddy Eastwood, Chris Hussey, Gary McSheffrey, Jordan Clarke, Roy O'Donovan

PORTSMOUTH - CRYSTAL PALACE

Palace's miserly record at Selhurst Park has served them well recently, it is well over 12 hours since they conceded a goal on home soil and those points earned have enabled them to climb out of the drop zone and open up a five point lead over Sheffield United and co. On the road things are very different, they do not have a clean sheet in 12 starts and only one in the league all season, collecting a Championship low total of six points from a possible 48. Palace fans are very optimistic at present and many are expected to make the shortish trip down to the south coast this evening, problem is they were only given 1400 tickets, which have been sold out and a number already have, or are, planning to buy tickets for the home section, with Pompey not always the friendliest of venues, this could get "interesting",of course, we are only concerened with on the pitch activities, but games are sometimes affected by these events. Hosts have won their last two without conceding and now have a nice cushion over the drop zone, they are looking to win three in a row for the first time since October, they had previously outplayed both Derby and leaders QPR for long sections of the game and have now played pretty consistently for four consecutive matches, the 1-0 win over Barnsley on saturday might appear a bit laboured, but they stopped the Yorkshire side from registering a shot on target.

Portsmouth have a poor first half record, collecting a Championship low 32 points before the break.

confirmed :

Jonathan Hogg returns for Pompey following suspension,Liam Lawrence misses out after limping off with a calf injury, in a direct swap.

Pompey: Ashdown; De Laet, Halford, Rocha, Hreidarsson; Ward, Mullins, Hogg, Cotterill; Kitson, Nugent
Subs: Flahavan, Dickinson, Mokoena, Kilbey, Ciftci

WATFORD - BRISTOL CITY

We saw two sides of Watford last week, they were pretty poor against Preston, when they defended too high and were very fortunate to claim a share of the spoils. They were much better at Reading over the weekend and the Royals had to rely on their keeper to keep them in the game on several occasions, having said that, they again allowed their opponents a lot of joy out wide and balls into the box.Hornets are a very young side and consistency is going to be a problem, however, they did show their potential at times on saturday, the first time in several outings and we already know that on a going day they can beat anyone at this level.City are the side that the bottom three will have their eyes on catching, they have won just once since NYD, that's 9 starts, conceding 16 goals, with their only victory coming against woeful Preston North End, they are six points clear of trouble at present, but have played more games than most of the teams around them and face some relegation rivals in the coming weeks. I have already aired my doubts about Keith Millen, who spent a decade at my beloved Brentford in central defence, as a head coach and I just get the feeling that it is going to be a long couple of months for supporters of the Robins. However, let's see how the first half unfolds.

First goal here might be key, with both solid when ahead at the half, (10-2-0) and ( 6-1-1 only 4 goals conceded) respectively.

confirmed : Nicky Maynard makes his first start of the season, left back McAllister misses out, always a key position.

Good Luck.

I will send the usual update by email at half time, with a brief outline of what has happened so far and hopefully, one or two "in running" suggestions.

TUESDAY ....

I know from experience that the next month or two is likely to be very fruitful for the gambler prepared to "put in the hours" and do a little homework. Most teams in the UK are going to be playing twice per week and with a lot of these being rearranged fixtures, there is not always going to be the standard home/away mix and there will be a lot of tired legs, spending hour upon hour on the motorway, with little recovery time between games. When you take this into account, along with team news/ squad size, there is clearly going to be some advantage to be gained by the hard working punter. That is all we should be looking for, an edge over the oddsmaker.

We have almost a full lower league domestic programme in England today, several teams have had a horrendous weekend travel wise, one will have spent around 25 hours on a bus since Friday by the early hours of the morning and will have played six road games in the last five weeks ! That is very tough on the body, regardless of fitness levels.

Another has had to make a very similar 7-8 hour road trip twice, played on an incredibly draining surface that cut up badly on saturday and must play a team that is refreshed after a ten day break and who has just strengthened their squad with three higher league signings !

A third is totally devoid of confidence, have been clocking up the road miles and must now face one of the better teams in the division, with no options to freshen up the team, with over half the squad injured or unavailable.

Those are just three tales of woe and there are plenty out there, do a little research and I am sure the rewards will come.

Good luck , back later.

CANARIES BREED WINNING MENTALITY ..........

CHAMPIONSHIP
LEEDS UNITED - NORWICH CITY

I have had to censor some of my thoughts about this game and the two teams, as I do not want to post certain things on a open forum at the moment, so just basic notes.....

It is rare that I oppose United, being impressed by their quality and never say die attitude, but when games come down to a battle, which this surely will, you do not want to oppose City, who under the very impressive Paul Lambert, are probably the hardest team in the Football League to finish off. Last season I lost count of the number of games they turned on it's head to win in the second half, or with very late winners and this season is going the same way, with 16 points earned from losing positions and in the last month alone, they have notched 94th minute winners against both Millwall and Reading and an injury time equaliser when playing Cardiff, three of the better Championship teams. They did lose 2-1 at Burnley, but were all over the home side at 1-1, but for once condeded on the break, they are outplaying a lot of teams, creating plenty of chances, averaging over 13 attempts per game, the second highest in the division and will thump someone soon.

The whole club is geared up for success and is typified by the winning goal against Reading, time was all but up and the ball booted by a visiting player high up into the directors box, the City Chief Executive raced to get the ball and threw it immediately back and from the quickly taken throw in, the Canaries scored, with executive David McNally getting an assist ! They are relentless and from top to bottom the club has become used to winning, they expect these late goals to come and so they do. Like I often say, so much sport is played between the ears.

Norwich City +0.25 2.03

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

I have written four previews today, including one double stake selection, think that I will post two of them on the blog, one is below and I will add the other later in the morning.

DIVISION 1
COLCHESTER UNITED- WALSALL

Walsall did us a big favour in midweek with a 1-0 win over Dagenham, that might have appeared a little hard earned, but they once again dominated the game, created an enormous number of scoring chances and are playing at a completely different level from two months ago, when they looked certain to be playing fourth tier football next season. Coach Dean Smith has done an amazing job in his short spell in charge and his team could actually find themselves out of the drop zone with a win today. Smith has bought in a number of experienced players to work alongside his youngsters, who he can handle well having always previously been a youth team coach, this combination is working well and he has also given his players an attacking freedom which they didn't have under former boss Chris Hutchings. A brief word about Hutchings, he has only ever coached struggling teams ( Bradford, Wigan and Walsall) and never been able to instill a winning mentality into his teams, with barely a 30% win rate, losing becomes a habit and the Saddlers clearly needed a change and more positive approach. I am a firm believer that you need to be a winner, to know how to win ( which is not as simplistic as it sounds) and personally, I would rather take a lower league coach with a winning record, than one who has performed poorly at a higher level.

United have a reputation as a strong home team, but they have won the second lowest total of home starts amongst the top half teams and only Peterborough have conceded more goals. They have won just three of their last 13 starts, once was a very fortunate defeat of Swindon with a 94th minute goal and they trailed in the other two, this is another team who have lost their way a little and a good looking opponent for the inform and newly found confident visitors.

Walsall draw no bet 3.10 + ..... 3.25 in places.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ......

Today sees a very welcome return to Friday night Ligue 2 football and the start to the weekend has not been the same in it's absence. I have been swimming against the tide most of today and trying to find the time to pad out my three basic previews for tonight's french matches, but have decided against it. Would have had a little more time to complete the task, if I had not suddenly realised I had just spent 30 minutes of my time staring through my office window at the blossom which has recently appeared on the plum tree in my garden, but I guess there are worse ways to spend half an hour !

Anyway, I will definitely post a preview, maybe two, on here tomorrow so please check back and good luck in the meantime.

THURSDAY ...... AFTER THE LORD MAYOR'S SHOW !

After the excitement of Arsenal- Barcelona yesterday, when the Gunners fought back to earn what looked an unlikely victory at the break, we are left with slightly less thrilling fayre today. Five of my six early bets have won this midweek and I hope that you/we enjoy similar luck with number seven. It is an unusual one for me, as I rarely bet "under" the goal line, but someone has to bring the excitement levels down a peg or two and Rangers at home in europe usually fit the bill !

Europa League
Glasgow Rangers- Sporting Lisbon

Rangers have normally played a very defensive 4-5-1 formation in europe, even in ties at Ibrox and in their last 13 european games here, have failed to score seven times, scored a single goal on six occasions and a brace just once . Even three years ago when they reached the UEFA Cup final, three of their five home games ended 0-0, including a quarter final meeting between these two sides. They have pledged to be a little more adventurous tonight, but I am not so sure, they have the Old Firm derby with Celtic at the weekend, a match which is going to go a long way towards deciding the SPL title and one, given the rivalry between the two clubs, that has to always take priority. Sporting also have a derby game with Benfica, but as they trail the big two by a distance and are seemingly booked for third spot in the table, almost regardless of what they do between now and the end of the season, for them, the match this evening will surely take precedence.

Both these "big" clubs are struggling financially and each sold their top striker in the transfer window, the Rangers squad is a little thin and still fighting on four fronts, something is going to give sooner or later. I like the draw tonight, all the while the score is 0-0 I do not expect Rangers to be too concerned, or too push too hard, they have usually found a goal on the road in europe and are confident in their ability to stop their opponent scoring twice in the return leg. However, maybe the "under" bet is better, very hard for me to see either team scoring twice, unless we get a very early breakthrough and given that Rangers have only conceded once inside 25 minutes all season at Ibrox and kept Manchester United at bay for 87 minutes here and 90 at Old Trafford, that seems unlikely.

So, under 2.25 goals for me, I must admit that the 9.50 about 0-0 or no goalscorer was tempting, as was the half time draw at a juicy 2.10, but the less adventurous option for me this time.

"under" 2.25 goals 1.92 .

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

I have previewed three games today, but only written basic notes, so am not prepared to post them on here, as I have no wish and do not see the point in writing a 3-4 line match preview on the blog, although I did send a copy to several of you this morning.

I think there was plenty to take from the pre match notes posted yesterday and if any of you played those games in running, which is what they are designed for, you should have been able to turn a profit.

Good luck with your bets today and please check back in midweek when we have a hugely interesting domestic and european programme.

SATURDAY .....

I previewed four matches earlier today, not posting any of those on here, but am also covering three games "in running", below are my pre match notes for these which you may find of some help ......

I will update these three games by email at half time.

CHAMPIONSHIP

BRISTOL CITY - LEEDS UNITED

After drawing blank in five straight games, City scored four unanswered goals at Preston last week, but that probably says more about the problems at North End than any newly found attacking prowess by the home team. However, they have received a major boost this week with the return of Nicky Maynard, who is fit to play after missing all of the season so far and last season's top scorer will almost certainly take his place on the bench. This is a big game for the home side, the first time they have hosted Leeds in over 30 years in the league and it will be played in front of an almost sell out crowd. United are very ambitious and are looking for more than a playoff spot, they battled back from two down to earn a share of the spoils at Hull and then grinded out a 1-0 home win over Coventry, when they were very wasteful in front of goal, their breakthrough goal came coutesy of South African international David Somma who has been on fire in the last season and a bit for Leeds, on loan at Lincoln and for his country, totalling 20 goals in 32 outings, he looks a tasty 3.0 to score at anytime, something he has done in the last two games, providing he passes a late test. New loan signing from Aston Villa, US international defender Eric Lichaj will definitely start and will give them a further touch of class at the back. The cup games with Arsenal were a major distraction, but the win last week should have got them back on track and with massive games against Norwich and Swansea later in the month, they need maximum points today to keep the pressure up in the hunt for what increasingly looks like one remaining automatic spot. For me, the jury is still out on City boss Keith Millen, I am not sure he is a head coach, but do not want to go into that here at the moment, suffice to say I think that Simon Grayson has the edge in the tactical department. Visitors have had 208 attempts on target this season a division high total, yet still been denied by the woodwork 17 times ! United and Burnley are the only teams to have won three games when trailing at the half, yet Leeds have won just 5 of the 9 matches in which they have led. They do not sit back regardless of the score and their games have produced an average of 1.97 goals in the second half, City's games are producing 1.53 and we should see this open up after the break, but let us see how the opening half pans out.

Maynard on bench, City unchanged, Somma and Paynter on bench, attacking line up as usual for visitors and options for Grayson.

WATFORD - BURNLEY

Both these two are looking to get involved in the post season and with each sitting five points off the pace, we can surely expect these two attack minded teams to go all out for three points today. Burnley have lost just once under new boss Eddie Howe, but showed great character to bounce back last week and beat a very strong Norwich side in an extremely open encounter, City were a bit unlucky to be honest. Watford have impressed many people with their attacking play this season and their average of 1.89 goals per game, is the highest in the division, they are without a win in four, but one came in the cup and the two losses were against Forest and Cardiff two of the strongest Championship sides. Burnley might not score as many as the Hornets, but they have created 88 more goal scoring chances, almost three per start, they have been denied by the woodwork 17 times and only on fire Leicester have had more attempts on goal. However, one word of caution, the visitors have won just two of the 14 starts in which they have gone in level at the break, only PNE can "boast" a worsE record, but most of those game came under the former management.

Austin out ( illness) for Clarets, Iwelumo in ,straight swap and only change.

DIVISION 1

COLCHESTER UNITED - SWINDON TOWN

We watched Swindon on Tuesday at Orient and the margin of the 3-0 defeat was not really fair to Town who received a major blow just before kickoff with two players picking up injuries, one I believe in the pre match warm up although I am not 100% sure about the timing of that, however, they started the brighter of the two teams and could have gone ahead early before conceding, they then regrouped, hit the woodwork and were again well on top, when Orient were given a second despite a clear foul on a Swindon defender, they were still arguing about this with the match officials when the third goal went in almost immediately. They continued to press after this with 18 attempts on goal, 11 on target and perhaps half of these were really good chances, but the Orient keeper was in good form and it was just one of those nights ! They added Spurs striker Jonathan Obika on loan, he signed on Tuesday morning and came on in the second half, but looked a little rusty, he is very quick and with a couple of days training with the rest of the squad, will be more in sync with his team mates today. Boss Danny Wilson must be on very thin ice now, he lost top scorer Charlie Austin to Burnley, but looks to have spent some of the money wisely with the addition of Elliot Benyon from Torquay, who came off the bench to score a late equaliser at home to Rochdale on saturday and giant 2m central defender Aden Flint, who was a commanding presence on his debut in the same game. Flint was signed from non league Alfreton Town, but has been watched by any number of Football league scouts for months, a number of clubs were interested and it says something about Swindon that he choose them over Colchester, who had offered identical terms to the player and club. Hs fee of £150,000 plus sell on clause is massive in the current economic climate for a sixth tier player, but if all the reports are correct, the 21yo is a little bit special.

Rochdale came into that game on an unbeaten seven match run and with their slick pasing game, the visitors were probably suited by the very windy conditions, so a point for Town was a solid result and it could have been more as they had two cleared off the line, hit the woodwork and enjoyed 61% possession, which is not easy against a team as hard working as Dale, so plenty of positives for Danny Wilson's men. In their two previous outings they had much the better of Exeter in a 0-0 stalemate and lost by the odd goal in five at high flying Bournemouth, when they left very unhappy with the match officials. It is worth remembering that the core of this squad came within a whisker of reaching the Championship last year and I think that they are a little too good to go down , but they need to start picking up points and soon. Huge sequence of games now for Town, who have played more matches than the other teams around them at the foot of the table, the defence needs to sort itself out and the experienced pros like Andy Frampton need to give more help to the youngsters.

United will be happy to be back at the Community stadium after consecutive road losses without scoring and have defensive problems again today, they will want to prove to Flint that he chose the wrong team and with a draw being of little use to either, this could develope into an open encounter, but surely the visitors will want to try and keep this tight early and not lose the game in the opening 30 minutes like in midweek. Very interesting match up.

United are struggling to finish matches off and have drawn four of the seven games in which they have led at the half, but won two of the six in which they have trailed at the break. Overall they have the poorest second half record in the division, posting just six wins and losing twelve.Town have lost two of the four matches in which they have gone in ahead and their games have seen 51 goals in the second period, the third highest number in the division.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY .... IT'S ALL GRAVY !

Tuesday morning,the sun is shining in West London and the Bees are going to Wembley ! However, with the JPT final set for Mothering Sunday, there are going to be a lot a Brentford supporters negotiating with wives and mothers in the coming weeks ! Come on ladies, do the right thing, just tell the man in your life the only present you really want is a pair of tickets for the final !

Nicky Forster has a 100% record as a coach and taken a team to a Wembley final after just five days in charge, which must be a record that will never be beaten, it's all gravy for Bees fans at the moment, what a difference a week makes !

Pretty quiet day betting wise for a Tuesday, I do have one solid bet but will not be able to post it on here, so you are on your own, please check back later in the week.

Good Luck.

TODAY'S NOTES .....

I am a bit late today, sorry, I was looking at the english non league games today, but could not find anything of value.

However, we will be heavily involved in these in the coming month or two, so many non league teams have a massive number of fixtures to play and will be forced to play three matches per week, for several weeks, in order to complete their fixture list, in the Conference North for example leaders Nuneaton have played 25 matches, third placed Alfreton just 18 and the league will NOT be extended beyond April 30th. Many of these players are part time and have commitments outside football and their club is also likely to be involved in lower league cup compettitions too. They will have to pick and choose the matches they will focus on and a little team news is going to go a long way !

This has all come about because of the dire weather at the turn of the year, which has also left the pitches in a bit of a state, which is further likely to take it's toll, playing three games in a week on heavy, broken up pitches and working a 5 day week at the Post Office too, is a far cry from the EPL........... unless you are a Wigan player ! I think the groundstaff at the DW Stadium will be working overtime this week !

Only going to discuss the JPT Southern Final second leg today, which is a bit of a mouthful, between tiny Exeter City and the mighty Brentford, not that I am biased in any way, shape or form.

The tie is finally balance after a 1-1 draw at Griffin Park ( The Theatre of Sleepless Nights) and both clubs will be very motivated to progress and earn a day out at Wembley later in the year, which will brighten up what has been a dismal 2011 for both teams so far. City have won just once this year, beating Walsall, who were fairly hapless at the time 2-1 at St James Park, with the visitors having a lot of goal scoring chances. Brentford had lost six from seven in the league before beating Plymouth 2-0 on saturday, that was a good solid performance from the Bees, but I should add that many home fans were of the opinion that Argyle were the worst team they have seen this season, but, to be fair, the team in green have had a lot of off the pitch distractions to deal with.

This will also be the third start in six days for both and there are bound to be some very tired legs on the pitch tonight, even allowing for a little squad rotation, it is worthy of note that City faced both Southampton and Huddersfied last week, two of the better team in the division, they did a lot of running and to concede six on home soil in four days, is not good for the confidence, so advantage Brentford there. The two teams know each other well and in addition to the two 1-1 draws at GP, the Bees earned a famous 4-2 win in the league here three months ago, when everything in the garden looked so much rosier ! That was an incredible game, as City thought they were hard done by, despite Brentford having a "good " goal disallowed and missing two penalties ! They could have scored seven on the road, yet the highlight of the day was three Bees players arguing for what seemed like minutes over who was to take the second penalty !

So, three previous games, both teams scored in each, City have yet to win but might argue that were the better team for long periods in two of them. I am not so sure ( of course not !), Brentford could have scored 5-6 here and also dominated the league match at Griifin Park, I don't doubt that these are two very well matched teams, but Brentford have the better squad IMO and have a weight lifted off their shoulders after coach Andy Scott left the club last midweek. I have some sympathy for Scott, who's record at Brentford looks very good on paper, but his playing budget was huge compared to recent incumbents at the usually cash strapped club and the level of expectation from board and supporters alike in TW8 is so much higher now. Losing with a touch of style has been the Bees motto since I was in short trousers, but the football dished up this season has been poor, with just one or two exceptions, there were too many instances of terrible team selection, confidence was shot and a long relegation battle was fast becoming likely. So, the cries of Scott out were finally listened too and Brentford striker, hero, crowd favourite and all round good egg Nicky Forster was put in temporary charge of the club, with the aim of stopping the rot, collecting three points at the weekend ( so far so good) and getting the bees to Wembley.... simple !

Forster is a very different character to Scott, the former boss never endeared himself to the supporters who are used to a close relationship with their manager, so, when the results turned, so did they ! NF has been very open, talking to everyone either through the media or social network sites and immediately got everyone behind the team. The lift in the mood at GP Towers over the weekend was palpable and when the second goal went in, the change in the players was amazing, there were a few turns and flicks, that would not have come off the previous week, or even been attempted, and shock, horror several consecutive passes between team mates ! Here is a section from one of Forster's post match interview ...

(NF): Yes, I thought the lads were fantastic, I really did. From the start, all the way to the end. At the end I said in there that the players managed the game themselves. From the moment we scored we grew in belief. In the second half we won that comfortably I thought. As I said they managed the game themselves and there wasn’t a lot for us [the management team] to do.

I thought the crowd was instrumental today. They started off in great spirits and the goals lifted them as well and both helped each other. I don’t think those on the sidelines or behind the scenes deserve the credit. I think the players deserve the credit today, and the fans too.

Interviewer: You asked the players to express themselves and they did it?
NF: I thought they did and I thought Myles Weston was back to his best. Talking about managing themselves, I put Myles on the left and Sam Saunders on the right, and half way through the first half I realised they had swapped over and I hadn’t told them to do that!

Myles thought he could get at Duguid and get crosses in and they did. I challenged those two players to get crosses in and feed the two boys up front.

I’m not going to single anyone out, as a team I thought they were fantastic.

I know it is only one win, but it is more about the mood at the club, everyone is moving in the right direction and Forster has the respect of the players, which Scott had probably lost. Incidently, I heard that within 60 minutes of the decision being made to part company with Andy Scott, that Brentford had received 46 applications for the job ! Many people have said that former boss Martin Allen is favourite for the job, I cannot see that, to my mind that would be a backwards step and not what I would expect from the current board/ owner. People have short memories, many fans would be happy to see him back, but far too often Allen didn't have a plan b, let alone plan c and his style of management seems a little dated to me, I would be surprised if he was seriously considered, but what do I know ? I understand that he, Dennis Wise, Gary Johnson and Ray Wilkins were all at the match on saturday, for no reason other than something to type, I can tell you that Wilkins has a strong family connection with the club, his brother Graham and father George both pulled on the famous ( in my household) red and white stripes and "Butch" was born in nearby Hillingdon.

Back to the game, City striker Jamie Cureton ALWAYS scores against Brentford ( three already this year) and despite missing the last two games, you can almost guarantee he will pass a late test and play tonight, he will get plenty of stick from the travelling supporters and give them some back when he scores his usual goal ! Ben Hamer, who has had four ( I think) loan spells at Brentford is also likely to be passed fit to take his place between the sticks tonight for City, last game he played for the Bees was that 4-2 win here back in October, football is a funny old game, Hamer will geta warmer reception from the visiting fans.

I feel both teams will once again score, the game is likely to get very stretched especially in the second half , I believe fitness levels at both clubs are good, but the two games against stronger sides last week might just have taken a little more out of City and they always concede at home ! I will take Brentford with the handicap start and refound confidence. By the way, did I say that Cureton always scores against the Bees ?

Brentford +0.25 1.97 +

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .....

I am unable to post anything on here today. I do have bets for one UK match, one Italian fixture and the Superbowl, but my notes are fairly basic and not anything I feel happy posting on here, sorry.

Many of you got my notes yesterday, so have had something from me this weekend and I will probably post a preview of the JPT game live on Sky tomorrow night and also discuss the related events from Brentford of the last week.

Until then, good luck with your bets today.

SATURDAY ....

I am not posting any match previews on the blog today, but have sent my notes by email to a number of readers this morning. Should you wish to receive a copy, please email me at stencelwade@btinternet.com and I will forward one as soon as possible.

Otherwise, please check back tomorrow, when I will definitely be posting some thoughts on here on a very busy day of sport.

Good Luck.

TOUGH LIFE OF A PROFESSIONAL GOLFER ..... HAVING TO LIVE ON $4M PER YEAR AND MARRYING A COWGIRL !

USPGA
FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN

Leaderboard looks a lot like this ....

-12 Mickelson- Haas
-11 Mahan - Watson
-10 Kim
-9 Vegas

Winner should come from this group of players. Mickelson grew up here in San Diego and has a terrific record on the couse, but almost all of his best rounds came before the major redesign of Torrey Pines which happened almost a decade ago.

I am interested in Hunter Mahan , he grew up in Southern California too although just a little further north and seemed very contended with life in general in his post round interview yesterday. This was key, as he recently married ( a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader) and this appears to suit and has motivated him, for others it can have the reverse effect, at least in the early stage of marriage. Mahan is a very solid round 4 player, one of the best on tour and was ranked inside the top 8 in both 2008 and 2009, last year he changed his approach slightly, putting in huge effort when in contention and less when not, this meant his ranking dropped, but he also cliamed two tour wins for the first time in his young career. He closed with a 65 to win the Phoenix Open and a fine 64 to claim the prestigeous WGC Bridgestone. He also shot a final round 66 here at Torrey Pines last year for 11th place and a 67 on sunday at the Hyundai Tournament in his only previous outing of 2011.

All play will be on the South Course today, where Hunter is 7 under par on the back 9 for his two rounds this week. He missed a few fairways yesterday, but his approach play and especially putting was good, drive for show, putt for dough is the mantra by which we profit and if he can find a little more solidity off the tee today, I expect him to go very close.

Hunter Mahan to win outright 6.0 + ... a little bigger on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

PRE MATCH ...

Good start to the day with the Villa- Blackburn bet landed inside 43 minutes and our tiny but huge odds multiple bet off to a flyer !

CRYSTAL PALACE - NORWICH CITY

Big game for both, three points for Palace, who have yet to win, or even score a goal,under new boss Dougie Freedman, would see them climb out of the drop zone, for City, a point would take them up into an automatic playoff spot. Freedman has been busy taking vastly experienced Lennie Lawrence as his assistant and re-signing James Vaughan on loan from Everton, this will be Vaughan's second spell at the club, scoring five goals in 14 appearances previously. During that time he worked with Freedman in training a lot and now Palace have plenty of offensive options with Vaughan, Counago, Easter, Iversen and Ambrose ( who will strip fitter after returning last week) all vying for starting roles. Freedman was prepared to gamble last week at home to Bristol City pushing men forward in search of a winner and we can expect him to do likewise today. Both these two open up after the break, with their games this season averaging well over 1.5 goals in the second half. City are very solid on the road, with a 6-5-2 record, but struggle to keep a clean sheet with just one in 14 starts, which came against league leaders QPR, actually they have two clean sheets against QPR this season a double which not many clubs will achieve.

Late goals are a real feature of the visitor's matches, their last 7 sarts have seen 12 in the last 29 minutes, with five in the last 5 minutes of play.City have claimed points from 5 of the 8 matches in which they have trailed at the half and along with QPR have collected most points after the break when going in leve l. Palace have only scored 5 goals in the 10 matches in which they have trailed, losing 9 and only turning around one, the reverse fixture at Carrow Road. That might be key, I kind of sense an upset today and goals maybe late n the match, but let's see how the first half plays out.

Vaughan and Ambrose start, lots of goals on bench, massive away support in the ground.

HULL CITY - QPR

City have let Bullard go to Ipswich, but signed Tunisian international Tijani Belaid on a short term loan, he spent his formative years at Internazionale and has, I have heard, really impressed at the club in training,he is anxious to claim a full time deal and if he can adapt to the pace of the game in the Championship, he should be an asset. We have talked recently about how much stronger the squad is now at Hull and we watched them last week at Reading, they disappointed early, but stepped up their game after the break, especially with the introduction of Manchester United player Corey Evans and after taking the lead, were perhaps unlucky not to claim the spoils with Matty Fryatt missing a very good chance. Still, a point at the Madejski is not to be sniffed at and City have now lost just once in 12 in a tough run of fixtures. Rangers have not really fired since Boxing Day but have stregthened the squad in the transfer window, with three EPL quality players and they are only interested in getting across the finishing line and probably don't care how it happens. They still play almost everything through Taarabt, who has been sensational this season, the ball he played Routledge to set up the winner against Coventry last week was out of this world, and visiting boss Aidy Boothroyd said he was tempted to run on the pitch to kick him, as it was the only way he could be stopped !

Rangers are 8-0-0 when ahead at the half, but have only scored four times in the five in which they have trailed, without winning. They do have the best record in the Championship when level at the break, when they are much stronger ( unless behind) scoring 70% of their goals, yet conceding only 50% in the second period.

BRENTFORD - YEOVIL TOWN

My beloved Bees really need this one if they are to get something out of the season. They will have benefitted from a free week after looking jaded recently and should strip much fresher than Yeovil, who will be without two starting defenders today, after both were dismissed at Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday night, leaving the west country side to play 30 minutes with 9 men ! That is a lot of running to say nothing of a long trip to Yorkshire and back followed by another away day to the capital just 2-3 days later. Town are the worst second half team in the division with only four wins and are 0-0-8 when trailing, scoring just 4 times. Bees are good when they get their noses in front, with a 5-0-0 record , conceding just once when leading at half time, but are almost as poor as Yeovil (0-1-6) when behind. They are overdue some goals and if Brentford can get ahead early, they could run away with this, with the visitors surely set to tire on what is a draining Griffin Park pitch at present. We will see how the surace holds up come half time.

I will update all three games by email at half time as usual.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..... PENNEY WISE ROVERS LOOKING TO FOYLE SADDLERS .....

Millwall won last night which made up for the Zvonareva bet, although I know that several of you took the hint on the "correct score" in the Li Na- Wozniacki match and obviously, I regret not putting that up as a selection. However, as I have always told you. I feel that what is written in the preview is at least and often more valuable than the actual selection and you will get more from the previews by reading them properly and doing a little work yourself.

I previewed four games for today last night at 21.00 and have included one of them below, I will also be covering several "in running" for "friends" and might post another preview, or some notes from those, a little later in the day should you wish to check back.

DIVISION 1
WALSALL - BRISTOL ROVERS

You know what I think about Walsall, that they are booked for Division 2, they have signed Jason Price on loan this week, but he is getting very long in the tooth now and whilst he has been a good player at this level, JP has been doing the rounds in the last season or two, which is never a good sign. Rovers had a terrific result last time out beating Swindon in a derby game 3-1 with experienced new loanee David McCracken putting in a MOTM performance and helping out some of his younger fellow defenders. New boss Dave Penney has been very busy, bringing in a tried and tested number two in Martin Foyle and two more signings on Friday in Rene Howe from Peterborough and Scott Davies of Reading. Howe is a big lump of a striker who scored a lot of goals in the Conference and he will be the ideal target man for Rovers, Davies is a young midfielder with plenty of games under his belt at the lower levels, which is the Reading way, to get them out on loan and learning the game.

Massive game for both, Walsall will have to gamble, they are now effectively ten points adrift of safety, Rovers are just two points off that elusive 20th spot and a win for them will realistically mean that one relegation spot is all but decided. The two played out a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture recently and I do expect goals again, which is normally the case when two strugglers meet.

1.5 units Bristol Rovers level ball 2.25
0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.0

Good Luck.

LIONS ON THE PROWL FOR POINTS ........

Millwall - Barnsley

You all know that I am quite keen on this Millwall side and I feel they will get stronger in the next few weeks, providing there are no major moves out of the New Den and by that I mainly mean Steve Morison. Kenny Jackett continues to upgrade his squad and the addition of Arsenal youngster Craig Eastmond for the rest of the season looks good business, he is a former young Lion, so knows the set up and area well. I do not think he will take too long to settle in and I expect him to help shore up what looked a leaky defence at Leicester last weekend, in the midfield holding role. I am not too concerned about that performance to be honest, they lost 4-2 to a rapidly improving Foxes team, but they put two new defenders in the team, ended the match with ten men and missed a penalty with the scores tied. They were previously unbeaten in nine starts and with a free week under their belts they will not only strip fitter, but will also know each other a little better, a win tonight will take them right onto the playoff fringe and with a trip to highflying Norwich City next midweek, they will see three points here as vital if they are going to push for a post season spot.

Barnsley must surely come here a little jaded, they had to play a road Yorkshire derby game on Tuesday night and now have to travel down to the capital to play on Friday, their 9th start since Boxing Day, whilst the Lions have had a third consecutive free midweek and should be raring to get back on track. The Tykes did win that match earlier in the week, 2-0 at Doncaster, but that was a rare road win for them, ( seven away defeats already) and Rovers have lost their way, conceding 15 in five starts, so I would not read too much into that.

Millwall came on strong at this time of year last season, entering December in 10th place and ending in third, followed by a playoff win at Wembley. They will be planning a similar push, but need the three points tonight.

Millwall -0.75 2.08 +

Good Luck.

"MAD " VERA TAKING THINGS EASY .....

AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS
LADIES SEMI FINALS

KIM CLIJSTERS - VERA ZVONAREVA

Kim is tough, but she admitted to feeling "tired and heavy" in her quarter final win overnight, she was wearing a leg bandage for "protection" and hit a lot of unforced errors. Her match was second on court also, meaning that she has less recovery time than her opponent and I do not think that the belgian superstar is at all suited by the lack of a rest day.

Now onto "Mad Vera" who seems to be putting the nickname behind her and is a lot calmer nowadays. She has benefitted from making the last two Grand Slam finals and whilst she lost both easily, as we have discussed in the past, there is a real progression to these things and unless you are a true superstar of the game, you normally have to lose one or two, before you learn how to win a major. The russian feels that she is a more "mature" player now and I certainly like her approach at this tournament, where she has purposely trained much less inbetween games and arrives here very fresh. She has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the two players, including at Wimbledon last year, but lost the US Open final to Clijsters, however, this is not a final and given the physical and in some senses mental state that the two players come into the match, remember Clijsters is a very positive person but already seems to be, at least subconsiously, looking for excuses, Zvonareva is a very solid bet at the odds available. I will make her a 1.5 unit selection.

LI NA - CAROLINE WOZNIACKI

No bet for me in this match, I am keen on Li Na to progress, but see little value in the odds offered. The chinese player has yet to drop a set here and loves the conditions in Australia where she is 10-0 this season having won in Sydney and is in the semis for the second year running, losing a real close battle with eventual and five time winner Serena Williams in 2010. En route to that final four place, she beat Wozniacki in the third round in three sets and has won both of their "main" meetings, losing in two minor tournaments. Li Na is now ranked in the top ten, but is at least a top five player on her day and something of a late developer having taken a two year break from tennis to go to university, she is 28 yo but effectively a 25 yo in tennis terms if that makes sense ! She was greeted like an Olympic champion on her return home last year from Melbourne and with tennis getting massive in China, they will go mad if she can go one step further this time round. She admits to playing at around the "same level" as last year, which in my opinion is good enough to beat Wozniacki, but to also being "happier" and "enjoying her tennis more". If you have to have a bet, maybe Li Na in three sets ( circa 4.20) in a repeat of last year's result.

1.5 units Zvonareva to beat Clijsters 2.54 + exchanges

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

Pre match notes:

ARSENAL -IPSWICH TOWN

RVP and Fabregas start, Nasri on bench.

PORTSMOUTH - BURNLEY

Pompey are continuing to add to their squad and have signed Aston Villa midfielder Jonathan Hogg on loan. They have a great record against top half teams. Pompey 5-2-2 when level at break, only Swansea have a better record. Hogg starts and with Utaka passing a late test and playing along with Kanu and Nugent, this is a very attacking line up.

Burnley have only won twice in 34 away starts. Only won 2 from 13 when level at half time. Wallace drops to bench, replaced by Thompson.

LEYTON ORIENT - MK DONS

Key Dons player Baldock is out for several weeks. They have added Amoo on loan from Liverpool and he is straight into the squad, but on the bench, along with Rowan Vine looking to resurrect his career. MKD were much better in the second half at Dagenham when they gambled and put three up top , they did not like the playing surface there and will be much happier on the good pitch at Brisbane Road, which suits their ball passing possession game. Dons won 8 when level at half, best record in the division.

Orient unbeaten in four and Harry Kane on loan from Spurs who scored on his debut at the weekend will start on the bench, he is very highly thought of at WHL and a star of the future. They are a perfect five from five when leading at the half.

SWINDON TOWN- TRANMERE ROVERS

Town have received two bids for star player Charlie Austin but he is in squad, Frampton back in the starting eleven, four changes in total and back to a much more familiar 4-4-2 after the experiment to change formation failed.

Rovers still have problems and are missing five defensive players.

Update by email only at the half time break, with first half notes.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....... INCEY STILL THE GUV'NOR

Notts County- Carlisle United

I cannot let County go unbacked, they have served us well in recent weeks and come into this game along with Southampton, as the two form teams of the division. Paul Ince has done terrific business in the loan markets over the last two months and arguably even better trading this week, with the loan extentions and permanent transfers which have kept Alan Judge (Blackburn) and Stephen Darby ( Liverpool) at the club, he has lost Ben Davies to Derby, but did a deal with the Rams to take Dave Martin on loan. Martin is a player I like a lot and whilst he has struggled to make his mark in the Championship, he is capable of running third tier defences ragged and should benefit from a change of scenery. Carlisle arrive here with on the back of a 4-0 thumping of Huddersfield Town in midweek a JPT win which has virtually booked a trip to Wembley later in the year and whilst that makes eight goals in a week for them, they all came on home soil and United are far from prolific on the road and with injuries at the club and options for rotations limited, they are bound to be a little leggy today. County have had a free week to recharge batteries an prepare for this, home win and nice odds.

Notts County -0.5 2.10

Peterborough United - Hartlepool United

Darren Ferguson has had his feet under a very familiar desk for almost two weeks now on his return as Boro boss. He has some talent at his disposal here, most of the squad know how to get out of this division and are happy with the coaching change, Ferguson will be busy in the loan market in the next ten days and has already addressed the Posh defensive problems by adding Tom Kennedy and Grant Basey to the squad, two experienced and versatile defenders, Kennedy especially will help solve the left sided problems which have cost Posh dear this season. Hartlepool's golden run is well and truly over and their striking problems have come home to roost with just one goal and one point in four starts, until they address this problem and they have been looking, I do not see them troubling too many defences, especially on the road and I expect Ferguson's homecoming to end with three points.

Peterborough -0.5 1.89

Wycombe Wanderers - Rotherham United

I know that I keep on about this left hand side of defence, but it is a big problem for a lot of teams, who struggle to fill this position, if I was a Wycombe fan ( thank goodness I am not) that position would give me nightmares and any team with pace at front is going to give them trouble if the have done their homework. I saw Hereford run them ragged twice in as many months at Adams Park in cup and league and the problem is worse here, when Wanderers are more adventurous and get exposed, they have ridden their luck time and time again in the league, not been so lucky in the cup, conceding six at home to Bristol Rovers, who have not won in ten outings since ! United are a better team in my opinion, have created 47 more attempts on target this season, which is a huge number btw and they look a far more likelier candidate for automatic promotion candidate than the home side.

Rotherham United +0.25 1.96

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

SERIE A
INTER - CESENA

The Inter recovery, which I covered briefly ten days ago (see below) is now well and truely under way and another three wins and nine goals later, they are up to sixth, still have two games in hand and only trail hated rivals Milan, who are nervously looking over their shoulder, by just nine points. A win tonight will eat into that lead further and I believe that they will want to do so in style, with the Serie A programme to themselves and a chance to lay down a big marker to their neighbour and the other title pretenders. The mood at the club is completely different under Leonardo and once again, the best squad in the division take to the field of battle expecting to win. The brazilian coach has been especially good with the south american players in the squad and with the samba rhythm in their legs instead of the leaden tactics of Rafa, it is like Inter have 5-6 new players hungry for victory and enjoying the beautiful game. Cesena will come with a packed defence, which was pretty much their tactics on the road even in their promotion season last year, they do not score enough goals to stay in the top flight IMO and to be honest, have ridden their luck at times to collect the 19 points which see them level with Lecce, who are battle hardened from numerous relegation campaigns, in the final drop zone spot. Their only away win came recently at Brescia, where the home side gifted the vsitors two goals courtesy of shocking defensive errors and failed to find an equaliser despite creating 20 attempts on goal.

A win tonight will take the Nerazzurri above Roma and into fourth spot, I can see only two outcomes this evening, Inter win by one goal or they win by more ! They are playing so freely and scoring for fun, that I have to go with the latter and will also take a speculative bet on them scoring four or more, just as they did against Bologna at the weekend.

1.5 units Inter -1.75 goals 2.04
0.5 units Inter "over" 3.5 goals 4.33 +... 4.50 available.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

I have a very busy day today, six bets , four live games covered in running and the NFL playoffs ! No time to write a proper preview for the blog, but I can share some baic pre match notes and team news for the live games.....

Doncaster Rovers- Reading

Rovers : Failed to win four of the ten games in which they have lead at the break.

Reading : Impressed me recently and a win could take them into the top six. They have only lost 1 in 12 h2h games with Rovers, winning five in a row here. Collected points in 5 of the 9 games in which they have trailed at the half. They have also 17 more points after the break than Rovers.

Normally goals when these two meet and Rovers had a wide open cup tie with Wolves last week, with end to end chances.

Defender Matthew Kilgallon makes his Rovers debut after signing on loan from Sunderland for the rest of the season.

Leeds United - Scunthorpe

Leeds: Without a win in four, but unbeaten in 8 h2h games with Scunny. Big FA Cup replay with Arsenal in midweek, but promotion is surely a priority. They tend to really open up in the second period, have only won four of the eight in which they have led at the half , yet collected points, including three wins when they have gone in behind !

Scunthorpe: 0-0-9 when trailing at the half, only scoring five goals and lost 5 from 8 when level.

Big changes for the visitors who only name six subs, very strong squad for Leeds.

MK Dons - Tranmere Rovers

Dons: Have taken points from 3 of the 8 games in which they have gone in at the half behind and won more games (six) when level at half time than any other Division 1 team.

Rovers: 6-1-0 when leading, but have conceded a massive 25 goals in matches where they have gone in at half time trailing.

Chadwick and Ibehre in for Dons.

Southampton - Notts County

Saints: best second half team in the division by miles, hardly surprising given boss Nigel Adkins obsession with fitness levels. They have posted the most wins and conceded the fewest goals, are 8-0-0 when leading, but have only won 3 from 10 whe level at the break.

County: Lost 2 of the 8 in which they have led, winning the other six , all 8 matches getting very stretched in the second period.

Very interesting match up between two inform sides , both of whom could have a big 2011.

Alan Gow from Motherwell goes straight into the County starting line up.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

ENGLAND DIVISION 1
COLCHESTER UNITED - BOURNEMOUTH

These notes were written at 20.00 on Thursday.

It looks like young Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe is on his way to Burnley, after turning down several offers in the last couple of months, including approaches from both Charton and Crystal Palace in the last week. He will remain in charge of the team for tonight's match, when victory would take his side into second place in the table and I am certain that both he and they would like to end on a high note.

Recent reports of the Cherries have been fantastic, they have been passing teams to death and creating a lot of chances, the had 22 attempts on goal against Plymouth last weekend, 14 on target and eased to their third win in a row, scoring eight goals in that sequence. The job that Howe has done on the South Coast with virtually no money and being forced to sell players just to survive, has been little short of sensational and he has been on the short list for every non EPL job that becomes available. They are playing so well and creating so many chances that it is difficult to oppose them at present, even given the worry about Howe and most probably his assistant. Holland, Feeney and Pugh all made the Division 1 team of the week and form a formidable midfield that matches up well with a United team who are struggling at present .

Colchester have conceded eleven in their last three starts alone, matches which have averaged 5.33 goals, they are really having problems at the back, something that has coincided with the omission of talented Marc Tierney, who is about to make a long planned move to Norwich City in the Championship. It now appears that centre back Paul Reid is also on his way to the Championship, following an approach from Scunthorpe United and he is unlikely to be risked tomorrow, that would not help club or player, with Reid out of contract in the summer.United do not sit back at home or away and have conceded 20 in their last nine home starts against league teams, at least two in eight of those and missing two key defenders , or one with the other very distracted, it is very hard to see them suddenly tightening up this evening. At the other end of the pitch they are in the process of signing Islandic international Matthias Vilhjalmsson, but that appears to be taking a very long time. They are struggling with injuries and do not look strong enough at the back to stop anyone at present, let alone the inform Cherries. The reverse fixture saw United win by the odd goal in three, in a very open encounter where Bournemouth felt hard done by after only converting one of 17 solid chances. Something similar tonight IMO, goals again, but probably a different outcome. Two bets for me, "overs" and the away win off level ball.

Bournemouth level ball 2.08
"over" 2.5 goals 2.01

Good Luck.

TUESDAY : PRE MATCH NOTES

Peterborough United- Brentford

After five straight road wins, the Bees have come crashing back down to earth with consecutive away losses and even more worrying has been the level of performance, with the West London giants ( at least in my dreams) comprehensively outplayed in both games.

Posh parted company with boss Gary Johnson yesterday, which was strange timing as they looked to be back on track with a five game unbeaten spell , before losing heavily at EPL side Fulham over the weekend and they can hardly have expected to have won that. This is more to do with another fall out between Darragh MacAnthony and his manager, the 3rd or 4th time this has happened, there have already been repercussions at the club with star player Joe Lewis handing in a transfer request today. Maybe this could be a good night for the Bees to visit London Road, scene of their most famous victory in the last 20 years.

Bees are 5-0-0 when leading at the half, 0-0-4 when behind, although Posh have turned around 2 of the nine games in which they have trailed, they have won only 60% in which they have led at the break.Hosts have collected 16 points from the 7 gamesin which they have gone in level at half time, the same tally has the Bees have managed from 13 first half draws.

Brentford:- Lee; Spillane, Osborne, Balkestein, Woodman; Bean, Laird, O'Connor, Weston; Alexander, MacDonald

Subs:- Royce, Wright, McCracken, Bush, Diagouraga, Simpson, Forster

Couple of changes for the Bees, which most fans will be in agreement with, but two players out of position ( this has worked successfully before).

West Ham United- Birmingham City

We are already on xxxxxxx and these Carling Cup semi- finals are traditionally high scoring games. Blues have finally found their scoring boots with six goals in their last two starts, both away games.

Big game for the Hammers and especially boss Avram Grant, not only are they just two games from a Wembley final, but there is said to be a board meeting tomorrow to discuss the Israeli's future.

West Ham recall Piquionne, Parker, Sears and Upson. Birmingham make 8 changes from the 11 which started at Millwall


Wycombe Wanderers- Hereford United

Wycombe arrive back at Adams Park after a bit of a thumping at Crewe over the weekend, they will want to get back on track, but the league for them is a priority and they have defensively looked vunerable on several occasions recently and Hereford game them a lot of problems especially down the left here on Boxing Day, when the hosts ran out perhaps fortunate 2-1 winners, since when United have scored eight in three starts. Wanderers have only gone on to win 4 of the 12 matches in which they have gone in level.

Donnelly (debut), McCoy, Bennett and Bloomfield all come in to the Wanderers side.Strongest possible line up for the visitors.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ....... EPL

BOLTON - WIGAN

I expect goals here, Bolton will be desperate to return to winning ways after losing, some would say unluckily, at both Chelsea and Liverpool, they have been strong at home , losing just one of ten high scoring open encounters, which have averaged 3.3 goals, with half producing four or more goals, they have scored 15 in their last five at the Reebok , at least two in each start. Wanderers put four past Wigan in this fixture last year, something they also did two years previously. The visitors have conceded 16 in their last 8 road games , keeping just the one cleansheet at Everton, when the wasteful Toffees missed any number of chances. They will be forced into a major defensive shake up with regular keeper Ali Al Habsi unable to start against his parent club, with veteran replacement Mike Pollitt coming in for his first start of the season.

"over" 2.75 goals 2.42

Good Luck.

PRE MATCH NOTES ...

As usual, I will update these games by email at half time.

Bournemouth - Brentford

Lots of Bees fans live along the M3 corridor and always travel in large numbers to this fixture, so plenty of support for the visitors in a big bank holiday crowd. My beloved Brentford are looking to make club history with a sixth straight away win in the league, but are very short of numbers in midfield. Brentford scrapped a draw in the reverse fixture, in one of their poorer performances of the season, however, both teams have gone in the oposite direction since then, with the Cherries really missing Josh McQuoid, something we have touched upon several times recently.

Bees are a perfect 5-0-0 when leading at the half and are good at closing out games, unlike Bournemouth who have only gone on to win 60% of the games when they have led at the break. The Cherries have only scored four goals in the six games in which they have trailed and three of those came in one game. Will be tough for them to chase the lead in this game.

Brentford:- Lee; Wright, Legge, Osborne, Woodman; Forster, Diagouraga, O'Connor, Bean; Alexander, MacDonald

Subs:- Hamer, Spillane, McCracken, Balkestein, Blake, Simpson, Weston

AFC Bournemouth:- Jalal; Smith, Pearce, Cooper, Wiggins; Feeney, Bartley, Robinson, Pugh; Bradbury, Ings

Subs:- Stewart, Hollands, Arter, Fletcher, Symes, Taylor, Cummings

in play :

QPR - Bristol City

Rangers will be desperate to bounce back after losing at Carrow Road on saturday in a match that Norwich dominated. They have a great record here against City, who were fully committed to beating local rivals Cardiff at the weekend and might not have saved too much for today. I did advise you that Neil Warnock would be busy in the transfer window and Petter Vaagen Moen has already signed from Brann, this has been in the pipeline for many months and I assume that Moen has been keeping fit and training with QPR for the last 5-6 weeks. Moen is good with deadballs ( not sure what Taarabt will say about that !) and averaged a goal every two games from midfield in Tippeligaen last season.

QPR are the best second half team in the Championship as you might expect, they are 13-10-1 after the break, conceding just 4 goals and a perfect 8 from 8 when leading.

Rangers update:Moen starts on the bench, Connolly suspended.

in play:

Leicester City - Swansea City

Swansea rode their luck at times and gave everything to beat Reading at the weekend, completing the double over Brendan Rodgers former club, Rodgers was perhaps not treated well by the Royals and I suspect he really wanted that win and there is the danger that it came at the expense of today's game, with Orlandi and Taylor picking up injuries and with Tate still suspended, they are short of options in key areas.

City have not lost at home to Swansea in over 60 years and are unbeaten on home soil under Sven, the former England boss has already been busy in the transfer window signing Ben Mee from Manchester City and Ivory Coast international Sol Bamba from Hibernian, both players he has worked with previously.

Leicester have the third best record in the division in the second half ( 12-6-7) but have got stronger and stronger in this department as the season has progressed and especially under Sven. They have lost only one of their last 12 second 45 minute periods and won an incredible 7 of their last 11. In the six games in which they have led at the half, they have only conceded two goals, so this is not a team you want to chase a game against. That could be a key stat as Swansea have easily the worst record amongst the top clubs when trailing at the half, scoring only two after the break in six games.

Mee makes the bench, Bamba has to wait for his debut.

in play:

Reading - Burnley

Reading felt hard done by in the 1-0 loss away to Swansea with the home keeper earning MOTM plaudits and are ultra keen to collect all three points today and get back to the form which had seen them unbeaten in seven before the trip to South Wales. Hosts are unbeaten in 12 home starts against the visitors, who have yet to record back to back wins all season and will be looking to break that duck after putting four past Sheffield United at the weekend.

Reading like to keep things tight, but they have got points from 5 of the 9 games in which they have gone in behind at the break. Burnley have gained a league high 19 points from losing positions, so this is unlikley to over until the fat lady sings !

However, when level at the half, Burnley have gone on to draw 60% (6 from 10) and Reading 50% ( 4 from 8).

Team news update: McAnuff, Leigertwood, Hunt and Karacan all return to the starting eleven.

in play:

Derby County - Millwall

Lions are unbeaten in seven starts and have returned to their very impressive early season form, keeping five clean sheets in the process.They will travel in good spirits to face a Rams team who have beaten only Preston, who are in freefall, in their last six starts and who have conceded 18 goals in 8 starts, at least two per game in seven of those. Millwall's run is even more impressive as they have been without a number of starting defenders recently and are very short of numbers at the back today, with Alan Dunne suspended and Shittu and Robinson still nursing injuries.

Millwall have struggled when trailing, losing all three when they have gone in behind and scoring just a single goal.

Update: Morison returns for Lions and Robinson is fit enough for the bench, Puncheon out with a dead leg.

in play:

Good Luck.

MONDAY ....

The New Year has started well, with both bets posted on the blog on saturday winning and my only selection yesterday ( not posted) also winning with a degree of comfort. I have four early selections today, none of which I want to reproduce on here, but I am covering five other matches " in running", so what I will do, is put my pre match notes for these online at about 25-35 minutes before kick off. These do not carry selections per se, as any bets for these games are not given until the match is "live", but do carry some basic thoughts and team news that you might find of interest. So, please check back for that.

Good Luck.

HAPPY NEW YEAR !

EPL
WBA - MANCHESTER UNITED

Sill just the single clean cheet for Albion all season and another five goals conceded in two holiday games. They only score one themselves, but created 15 attempts on goal at Bolton ( with 9 on target) and 21 at home to Blackburn, again with a large percentage on target and with big defensive concerns today, Roberto Di Matteo seems both unlikely and unable to abandon his attacking principles just yet. United will be greedily eyeing up the three points on offer and will be looking to open up a lead over their rivals at the top of the table in this early lunchtime kick off. The two points United threw away in the reverse fixture, after leading 2-0 at the break at Old Trafford ( which happens about as often as a full moon falls on Christmas Day) still rankle and a spot of revenge will be on Sir Alex's agenda, especially on his 70th birthday. Wayne Rooney has to come good soon, he is yet to score from open play in over nine months.

"over " 2.75 goals 1.99

WALSALL - NOTTS COUNTY

Last season I discussed the problems Walsall had creating chances many times and how they had overachieved considerably by staying out of the drop zone. Those problems have continued this season and to be honest, they are fortunate to have even the 17 points they have collected, which see them firmly entrenched in the bottom four. Therefore, they have underperformed for 18 months now and it is difficult to argue that they are in a false poistion in the table. They do have a recent win at Charlton to their name, but the home side were dire and neither created an attempt on goal worthy of the name in the opening 45 minutes and the Saddlers had only previously won once in eight and have had a degree of good fortune in all their wins this season, perhaps the Charlton game aside, I will give them that one !

We have talked about County twice this month, they are very much heading in the right direction under Paul Ince and are now unbeaten in four and as discussed before the Bournemouth match, were playing well before that. The defence now looks solid and even going a goal down early, were never in danger of losing at Plymouth on Boxing Day, creating 15 good attempts and enjoying 62% possession,now just 7 points off the playoffs and with a game in hand, they can look forward to 2011 and a win today will put them in post season contention in a very tight division. So much more potential in the visiting squad and off level ball I make them my best bet of the day.

Notts County level ball 1.84 .

Good Luck.

TUESDAY .... DONS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THEIR DESTINY

DIVISION 1
MK DONS - BOURNEMOUTH

Dons have now put in three pretty dire performances, conceding 10 goals and failing to collect a point. However, unlike any other team in this position, they will probably have benefitted from a break and the 17 days since their last start, has enabled them to get Baldock, Chadwick, Leven and O'Hanlon fit and all four will return today. Only one of those losses was here at Stadium MK, where the very big pitch suits the home team, something we have discussed before and I am prepared to write off that 4-1 loss to Sheffield Wednesday as the visitors were on fire at the time and actually scored from the only four chances they created and with a much stronger line up today, I feel that the real Dons might put in an appearance. Visitors have only played twice in the last six weeks or so, losing both and looking lost without McQuoid, who has left to join Millwall, this was something we talked about before their match with Notts County and I feel that the Cherries are going to have a tough few weeks of adjustment. Bad feeling left from the first game, when Dons felt agrieved by the referee who showed seven yellow and one red card, most to the DonS in a fiery encounter, big match for the home side, who sit both four points off the playoffs and also the drop zone, with a nice sequence of fixtures after this, next eight are all against bottom half teams, including four of the bottom five, this is a chance to get their season back on track.

MK Dons -0.25 2.23

EPL
WEST HAM UNITED- EVERTON

Hammers did us a favour on Boxing Day, coming back from a goal down to put three past Fulham, however, they were pinned back for the first 30 minutes and could easily have been 2-3 down by that time. They do have goals in them now that most of the squad is fit and have scored 12 in their last six, with 5 from 6 at home ending "over". With Everton seemingly far happier on the road, having scored in their last seven away starts and being unbeaten in seven and scoring 2 or more in four of those, including in a famous win at Eastlands and only coming up short in trips to Chelsea andTottenham, which both ended 1-1, goals are surely on the cards today. Toffees have a fine recent record here scoring 2+ on their last four visits to Upton Park and given the Hammers defensive frailities, a repeat is in the offering, especially with Arteta and Pienaar now available.

"Over" 2.5 goals 2.11

Everton to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.25 + ... up to 2.375 on offer

Good Luck.

MONDAY ....

EPL

ARSENAL- CHELSEA

Big and really only game of the day, with a massive worldwide television audience waiting to see some fireworks. The visitors have traditionally dominated this match up, winning the last five meetings and losing just twice in 18 matches. I suspect we might see a return to the real Chelsea today, Terry and Essien should now be very close to full fitness after recently returning from injury, Frank Lampard makes his long awaited return today and Didier Drogba, despite missing a penalty at Spurs as time expired, has scored in his last two league starts and is clearly returning to his imperious best. The Ivory Coast superstar loves to play against the Gunners, scoring 13 goals in 11 starts and two substitute apperances against the North London club and with that penalty miss troubling him for the last 15 days, he is sure to be very hungry to make amends this afternoon. Unlike many other big name EPL players he is one that tends to turn it on for the big games and I will take him to add to that impressive record in a game where we are likely to see goals , hosts have just one clean sheet in 8 starts, Chelsea one in 11 and with two or more in 6 from 7 outings against Arsenal. With goals on the cards, he is the most likely contributor.

Didier Drogba to score at anytime.... 2.70 + .... 2.80 on the exchanges at present and up to 3.0 in a place.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

EPL
BIRMINGHAM CITY - NEWCASTLE UNITED

We have talked before about Birmingham and that their impressive looking home record is a little misleading, they have dodged any number of bullets at St Andrews, especially recently, when they collected four points from games against Tottenham and Chelsea, both of which they could/should have lost by at least two goals. They have conceded in 4 of their last 5 starts here, the only clean sheet coming in that Chelsea fixture when the visitors created some 30 attempts on goal. So, I do not think they are quite as strong as their basic record suggests, but what cannot be disputed is that they have great heart and will battle for the full 90 minutes.

Newcastle made a fine start under new boss Alan Pardew, putting three past Liverpool and I suspect that his team will not yet completely abandon their attacking principles on the road, a policy that has seen them earn a couple of famous wins ( Arsenal and Chelsea in the cup), yet get hammered in trips to Bolton and WBA, it is very much a case of feast or famine for the Magpies. Away from home they have scored in their last 7 starts and conceded 14 in six, home and away they are "over" in 11 from 14. I feel goals are on the cards again today and expect both teams to contribute, that is normally the case when these two meet, both scoring in the last four meetings and two of the last four match ups here have ended 2-2, which is my idea of the scoreline today. Tough holiday programme ahead for both, so neither will want to leave empty handed and preferably with all three points.

"over" 2.5 goals 2.17

Good luck.

PRINCE NAS TO LAY CLAIMS TO CROWN ............

EPL

MANCHESTER UNITED - ARSENAL

Should Arsene Wenger feel the need to further motivate his troops this evening, he only needs to post Patrice Evra's ill advised comments that Arsenal were not a threat and no more than a "training centre", to the dressing room wall. I think that at least subconsiously, he and United as a whole are worried about the increased threat this season from both Arsenal and City and such comments can only serve to fire up the visitors.

It is true that Arsenal have not won a trophy since 2005 or on the road at Old Trafford since 2006, but only Ipswich and then West Ham or Birmingham stand between the London club and a Carling Cup win, which is nice to have on standby and can claim five away wins already this season, including a 3-0 thumping of the other Manchester club, which stands testament to this being a far more robust and perhaps mentally stronger Arsenal team and one more likely to challenge for the title. They have tended to go into these crunch games under pressure in recent seasons, but that is not really the case this time round in my opinion, they sit top of the table, with a trophy awaiting and can forget about europe for a month or two. In Samir Nasri they have a developing superstar who has thrilled the EPL in the last 12 months and a largely injury free Gunners are going to get stronger not only season by season, or month to month, but week by week.

United, aside from a capitulation by a Blackburn side they always defeat, have laboured through their last eight fixtures and do not look the force of old, there has been a virus at OT in the last week and at least a couple of first teamers have been affected, not quite sure of the extent of that, but it is hardly a positive. I sense a big night for Arsenal and with United having already drawn 47% of all EPL fixtures, I am happy to get a half goal handicap start.

Arsenal +0.5 2.0 .

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ..............

CHAMPIONSHIP

SWANSEA CITY - MILLWALL

I fancy that this will develop into a very tight encounter between two evenly matched teams. Hosts have had the better of the campaign so far, but I saw and was impressed by Millwall earlier in the season, immediately after which they went on the skids a bit, however, boss Kenny Jackett knows how to compete at this level and got busy in the transfer market and with signings like Puncheon, Andrew, McQuoid, Lisbie and Shittu has added to his options with a mixture of talent, youth and experience. The Lions are now three starts unbeaten, collecting seven points and a hat-trick of clean sheets in the process. The first four named newbies give Millwall an increased offensive threat and with the evergreen Neil Harris on the sidelines and top striker Steve Morison back amongst the goals with a brace last time out, his first in five outings, I really feel that the Lions are a team to keep on the right side of in the coming months. I like Morison a lot, his work ethic is fantastic and he will get goals at any level and having some classy providers around him will only help his tally in the weeks to come. Jackett spent a largely successful three years at Swansea and will be ultra keen to get a result tonight as he was not entirely fairly treated towards the end of his reign in south Wales.

Hosts play some very nice stuff, but often take a very long time to get from box to box, playing one sideways pass too many in the process.They do have a big incentive tonight, in that three points would take them above their biggest rival Cardiff and up into second spot. However,City have looked a little fragile defensively recently and dodged plenty of bullets at Ipswich last weekend and Millwall poise much more of a goalscoring threat than Roy Keane's men, they have seemed happier on the road at times and even with Gary Monk returning to the centre of defence tonight, which will give them a more solid look at the back, I can still see these two teams cancelling each other out. I was very close to opting for the draw selection, especially as these two have played nine evening games between them this season without a win under floodlights, but just feel that if anyone is going to steal the points, that it might be the visitors with their more direct style, so, Millwall plus the handicap.

Millwall +0.75 1.98

Good Luck.