SATURDAY NOTES ......

SATURDAY MARCH 24th

Going to start with three strong domestic bets .....

CHAMPIONSHIP :

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LEAGUE 1 : WYCOMBE WANDERERS - MK DONS

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CHAMPIONSHIP: MILLWALL - LEEDS UNITED

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LA LIGA : GETAFE - VALENCIA

I have spoken several times about how we can expect a slightly questionable attitude from Valencia on occasion this season in La Liga, which is why we are firmly behind them in the Europa League. The problem is that they are clearly the third best team in Spain and have no chance to catch the top two, so will pick and choose which games they will be motivated for domestically. For example they were up to thumping a weary Athletic side who dared to threaten their status as next best in Spain by dominating Manchester United in two legs, with most of Europe watching and then lost at home to basement club Zaragoza. Now their lead in third is down to just three points over Levante and a Malaga team coming on strong, another defeat, or dropped points at all, is going to complicate matters for them and I think we will see the real Valencia this evening, especially as they feel agrieved by the midweek loss at the Mestalla. A few players missing on both sides of the pitch, but the visitors are much better able to handle their losses and are helped by the return of Tino Costa following suspension, Getafe have only two available central defenders and one has only made five starts this season, they are further weakened at the back and look very vunerable this evening. Only Real and Barce have posted more road wins than Valencia who won the reverse fixture 3-1 and the match here in Madrid last season 4-2, I expect them to collect the points and then turn their attention to the meeting with AZ Alkmaar on Thursday. 1.5 units Valencia -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

SERIE A : MILAN - ROMA

This fixture is dominated by Milan's Champions League quarter final with Barcelona on Wednesday, the home side are beat up and severely short of offensive options, are coming off a tough Copa Italia semi final on Tuesday, which has given them 24 hours less recovery than Roma who played on Monday and surely have to look to give themselves the best possible chance to compete with Barce in midweek.

No Cassanao, Pato, Robinho , Inzaghi or Maxi Lopez, just leaves Ibrahimovic and El Shaarawy up front, Zlatan limped out of the Juve game at the break and coach Massimiliano Allegri has to have him available on Wednesday.

Prince Boateng returns, but he along with Thiago Silva and Ambrosini have had limited training this week, Antonini is suspended and several others named in the squad are carrying knocks.

Roma despite a couple of questionable performances, especially at Atlanta, where without De Rossi there were shambolic at the back, remain in contention for that third place and with three of their next four starts at home, they have a big incentive to come away from the San Siro with a result. They have a good record here, losing just once in six visits and just one of eight in the reverse fixture, so much the better of this series in recent seasons.

We spoke ahead of the Coppa first leg about how Milan had struggled a little against the better teams this season, Roma just about fall into that category at present and this is a great chance for the visitors be beat a vunerable and distracted opponent. Regardless of what happens today, Milan will still be top of Serie A come Sunday evening and they have to look at the bigger picture. 1.25 units Roma +0.75 ball 2.07 asian line.

MILAN: Abbiati, Amelia, Bonera, Mesbah, Mexes, Nesta, Thiago Silva, Zambrotta, Yepes, Ambrosini, Aquilani, Boateng, Carmona (55), Emanuelson, Gattuso, Muntari, Nocerino, Seedorf, Van Bommel, El Shaarawy, Ibrahimovic.

ROMA :BORINI Fabio, CICINHO, CURCI Gianluca, DE ROSSI Daniele,GAGO Fernando,HEINZE Gabriel,KJAER Simon,KRKIC Bojan,LAMELA Erik,MARQUINHO,OSVALDO Pablo Daniel,PERROTTA Simone,PIGLIACELLI Mirko,PJANIC Miralem,ROSI Aleandro,SIMPLICIO Fabio Henrique,STEKELENBURG Maarten,TADDEI Rodrigo,TOTTI Francesco, VALDES J. Angel

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ..... PENNEY WISE ROVERS LOOKING TO FOYLE SADDLERS .....

Millwall won last night which made up for the Zvonareva bet, although I know that several of you took the hint on the "correct score" in the Li Na- Wozniacki match and obviously, I regret not putting that up as a selection. However, as I have always told you. I feel that what is written in the preview is at least and often more valuable than the actual selection and you will get more from the previews by reading them properly and doing a little work yourself.

I previewed four games for today last night at 21.00 and have included one of them below, I will also be covering several "in running" for "friends" and might post another preview, or some notes from those, a little later in the day should you wish to check back.

DIVISION 1
WALSALL - BRISTOL ROVERS

You know what I think about Walsall, that they are booked for Division 2, they have signed Jason Price on loan this week, but he is getting very long in the tooth now and whilst he has been a good player at this level, JP has been doing the rounds in the last season or two, which is never a good sign. Rovers had a terrific result last time out beating Swindon in a derby game 3-1 with experienced new loanee David McCracken putting in a MOTM performance and helping out some of his younger fellow defenders. New boss Dave Penney has been very busy, bringing in a tried and tested number two in Martin Foyle and two more signings on Friday in Rene Howe from Peterborough and Scott Davies of Reading. Howe is a big lump of a striker who scored a lot of goals in the Conference and he will be the ideal target man for Rovers, Davies is a young midfielder with plenty of games under his belt at the lower levels, which is the Reading way, to get them out on loan and learning the game.

Massive game for both, Walsall will have to gamble, they are now effectively ten points adrift of safety, Rovers are just two points off that elusive 20th spot and a win for them will realistically mean that one relegation spot is all but decided. The two played out a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture recently and I do expect goals again, which is normally the case when two strugglers meet.

1.5 units Bristol Rovers level ball 2.25
0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.0

Good Luck.