FROM THE GUARDIAN WEBSITE ......

LINK Video of what really happened inside Fortnum and Mason on saturday afternoon.

149 people told that they had behaved in a "non violent" and "sensible" way and that they would be able to leave the building freely, this was relayed by a chief inspector of police, not a constable. Outside all 149 were then kettled, handcuffed , taken into custody and all have since been charged.

LINK

UPDATE .......

I might put up the odd snippet of news over the next week or so, but will not be posting any match reviews on the blog until next midweek.

However, the blog will be five years old on Friday, that's at least 3,649 posts, some 800,000 views in the last three and a half years alone and well over one million words of copy, the equivalent to some 11-13 novels. I did not want to let that pass without comment, as this must be the most long standing sports betting blog on the internet, with most having a shelf life of just a few weeks and I am proud of that fact.

Several readers have been with me since day one and have shown as much dogged tenacity as I have, so thank you for that.

As a reward ( or punishment), if any of you want to receive free copies of all my notes this weekend, just send an email to me at stencelwade@btinternet before 10.00 UK time on Friday, it will not be possible to include anyone after this time. You will receive emails on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, probably 5-6 in total and get a brief schedule of when to expect these when the first is delivered.

Otherwise, please check back next week and good luck in the meantime.

TUESDAY ....

BLUE SQUARE SOUTH

BOREHAM WOOD - FARNBOROUGH

I was inpressed by what I saw of Farnborough at Maidenhead last week, they are playing with a massive amount of confidence, have competition for starting places, could hardly be in better shape and are closing in on a flagging Braintree, the title, and more importantly, the sole automatic promotion spot.

They will move to within a point of the league leaders, who were 11 points clear a month ago, with a win tonight and are in bullish mood, with key player Dale Binns stating after their latest win, a 2-0 defeat of Weston Super Mare, "we have a great sense of belief in the squad since our game against Woking and truly believe we can win every game." He added "with the players we have at this club you cannot afford to have a bad game if you want to start next week. It makes me play that little bit better."

They played that WSM match with ten men for over half an hour and still did not allow their opponent an attempt on goal worthy of the name, it was a quality, hard working performance. Hungry boss Steve King, who was poorly treated at Lewes and who knows how to get out of this division, did not conduct any post match interviews as he let immediately after the game to go and watch a future opponent who were playing later in the day, that epitomises the work ethic of this group.

Hosts have been pretty dour, at least recently and seem happy to keep things very tight, certainly until they fall behind, which will definitely hand the initiative to the visitors who are desperate for not just the points, but also a little revenge with BW the last team to defeat Boro in the league, King has a "thing" about teams doing the double over his side's and will have the troops fired up for this and looking for another early goal ( they have scored four inside eight minutes in their last three starts) to force the hosts out of their game plan.

Farnborough -0.75 2.06 .... written Monday evening.

Good Luck.

PROTEST UPDATE ....

I know that this is a sports betting blog essentially, but it is my blog and having posted my views on the events of saturday, I want to update the situation. My daughter was released after 22 hours in custody and bailed to appear in court on May 11. She spent the night in a police cell and had personal items of clothing including her shoes, confiscated as "evidence". Along with a hundred or so others she was peacefully protesting in Fortnum and Mason, openly talking to and even joking with staff and police alike. A senior female police officer thanked them for their behaviour but asked them to leave the store and promised that if they did so, they would not be detained or questioned. This they did and were all arrested ! Here is a story from today's Independent, written by a reporter who was in the store LINK . Please take two minutes to read it, as it gives a truthful report on events . I have also heard that there is video evidence of the senior officer making this "promise" and know that what happened outside was covered extensively on the BBC. Good Luck.

BACK TO SPORT .....

OXFORD UNITED - BURTON ALBION

Hosts will be going all out for the three points in a match which coach Chris Wilder has termed a "must win" fixture, however, United do not like to do things the easy way, are "over" in their last five starts and are six without a clean sheet.

We have talked previousy about the far more open style they play now and that is clear from recent results, infact, since Novenber 23rd they have played 21 games, 16 have been produced three or more goals and an incredible 12 of them have ended in a 2-1 scoreline. Albion have gone "over" in 10 of their last 13 road starts and they have managed just one clean sheet in nine, that coming in a 0-0 draw with basement club Stockport, they have also scored themselves in seven of the other eight. They are short of defensive options today and will be a little battered and bruised after meeting the physical Stevenage in midweek.

Wilder watched that match personally and whilst he admitted that Albion are in a false position in the league, he was pleased that his side finally had a free midweek programme to regroup and recharge their batteries and did not face the demands of meeting Boro. I think that Oxford will win, but am much keener on the "over" option and also suggest a minimal fun bet on that 2-1 scoreline coming up once again.

"over" 2.5 goals 2.13

Good Luck.

AN AFTERNOON IN LONDON ............

Up to 500,000 people took part in the Anti-Cuts march in London yesterday, the biggest public demonstration in England for a decade.

We are free to protest in this country, or so I have always believed.

There were "only"201 arrests, but they are of some concern to me, as they include my daughter who is 19 years old, barely 1.62m and who is the most laid back, easy going character you are ever likely to meet, completely unlike her father !

Of course I am biased, but she has never had an evil thought in her life, let alone committed a bad deed and was peacefully protesting in Fortnum and Mason, as were a hundred or so others, when they were rounded up and arrested, most probably for actions which took place outside the building, late yesterday afternoon.

17 hours later she in still in custody and I just hope that she and her friends are not going to get "shafted" as the easier targets for arrest. Do you really think that any real "mob of raging activists" as I have just seen them described in the more right wing UK media, would simply occupy and wander around a building in full view of CCTV cameras for over two hours, it is plainly ridiculous. Similar, lower profile occupations have been going on all week at Deptford Town Hall without trouble.

I hope they release all the students ,who are just finding their political feet, without charge and try to find the real trouble makers. As nothing happened yesterday further than two feet from a camera, it should not prove too difficult.

WHAT A WEEK ! Part One

Bit of a rush betting wise in the last seven days, I was within one goal ( it should have come) of a clean sweep 7 from 7 selections last Saturday, had a 12-1 winner on the USPGA Tour on Sunday and have won with six of my eight selections since then, including Stevenage yesterday. I am looking for a repeat on the golf today with another huge priced pick and have two solid football selections to go along with that. One of which I will post on here shortly. Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

LEAGUE 2
MACCLESFIELD - STEVENAGE BOROUGH

A midweek win for Macclesfield has all but ensured their safey for another season and I doubt they will be able to match the intensity or motivation of their opponent this afternoon. Hosts have already lost 8 home starts this season and conceded 28 goals, the most of any team outside the drop zone. Boro are looking for a ninth road victory and for a 5th straight win in a row, that sequence of results has taken them into the playoff zone and they are not about to let up now. They are not an easy team on the eye, or to like, but are physically imposing, well drilled, fit, organised and believe 100% in coach Graham Westley, for whom they would run head first through a brick wall if he asked !

They play at a very high tempo that others struggle with and once taking the lead, will resort to any tactics to delay the game and stop their opponent from building momentum. Latest of these is the "drinks break"when one of their players is "injured" usually using up some four minutes of play, their fans even sing a song about it ! Very frustrating to watch, but extremely effective, it is shame, because they look quite good when they do decide to play. Westley added to his squad yesterday with a very promising young non league keeper and the coach is very confident about his players, stating that his team "are getting stronger with every game". Field have injury problems and their squad is down to the bare bones, meeting a team like Boro under the circumstances is the last thing they need and it could be a long afternoon for the Silkmen.

Stevenage -0.25 1.96 Sbobet .

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

PRESTON NORTH END - COVENTRY CITY

Hosts have given themselves a very slender lifeline with their emphatic 3-0 win at Scunthorpe in midweek and will be all out for three points today to try and drag another side into the relegation shake up. I was keen to oppose City earlier in the season when they where hanging around close to the playoffs, as they were clearly not that good, however, they are also not as bad as one win in 17 starts might suggest and now that they have ditched coach Aidy Boothroyd and his negative tactics which were dragging the whole club down, I would not be in such a rush to oppose them. Caretaker boss Andy Thorn immediately swiched to 4-3-3 at Burnley in midweek and they pretty much dominated the game, created a host of chances and were desperately unlucky to only earn a share of the points in a 2-2 draw. Hard to see them changing much this afternoon and I expect these two clubs to go toe to toe for 90 minutes. Consecutive clean sheets seem unlikely for North End and if City have half the attempts on goal they managed in midweek, they are likely to snatch at least a couple and I will split my stakes on the"over" bet and City to do just that.

"over" 2.5 goals 1.95

Coventry to score over 1.5 goals 2.625 Bet 365/ Corals etc.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY .....LUCIEN LIGHTS UP GLADBACH'S DISMAL SEASON......

BUNDESLIGA

BORUSSIA MGB- KAISERSLAUTERN

Hosts are making a real fist of survival with 10 points from ther last 7 outings which is a mighty haul compared to the 13 they collected from their opening 19 starts. However, the real improvement has come since new boss Lucien Favre took charge on Valentines Day and the BMG fans should be in love with what he has achieved so far. The team were without a home win at the time, but have beaten both Schalke (2-1) and Hoffenheim ( 2-0) since, collected a fine point at Bremen with a last minute equaliser and lost by the odd goal in three at Wolfsburg, when again they had chances to salvage something at the death.

Master tactician Favre has tighten them up at the back, he had to make that a priority with 57 goals conceded before he joined, he knows that three points tonight will give his team a real lifeline and with a trip to Bayern next week, they are absolutely vital. Favre is very hungry to succeed, he was Bundesliga coach of the year in 2008-09 with Hertha and was shown little loyalty by the club, when severe budgetry restraints led to a poor start the following season and he was sacked. He is very tactically astute and has got BMG following and more importantly believing in the game plan already, he is also quite good with the mind games and has already been trying to talk Kaiserslautern out of their predicted defensive set up tonight and with the away coach taking the "bait", he looks to be ahead before the teams take to the pitch.

His team have been finishing matches strongly and I expect them to find a winner tonight although it might take a while. Odds are XXXXXXXXX XXXXX the rest of the preview is censored

BMG -0.5 2.28 + ... 2.32 exchanges .

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

Peterborough won comfortably enough last night and hopefully some of you got on . I will not be posting anything on the blog today, I have just one double stake selection at odds of circa 4.0 but it involves a team I want to follow in the coming weeks, so it would be foolhardy to post details here. However, pretty sure that there will be another preview later in the week, so please check back.

I can take this opportunity to explain a couple of things which I am asked on a regular basis , the Feedburner email delivery service on the left hand side of this page, is a third party service delivered once per day at around 13.00 UK time. It doesn't come from me, Feedburner simply pick up anything that has been posted and pass it on, if I post something after 13.00 you will not receive it until the following day, usually after the matches have been played.

The blog content is only a fraction of my output, just a "taster" if you like, so will always be more subject to variance. Should you wish to write to me about anything you can do so on stencelwade@btinternet.com and I will do my best to answer, but I can never discuss matches I have not already previewed.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY .... NOT TOO POSH TO PUSH FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION SPOT ....

DIVISION 1
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

We backed Peterborough at Yeovil exactly four weeks ago, my notes are reproduced below, they won that 2-0 and are unbeaten in seven since then, winning six, including the last four with a 15-0 goal difference ! That sequence also included a 5-0 road win at Oldham and 6-0 defeat of Carlisle at the weekend, so my words that they are going to thrash someone soon and that sooner or later they will get things right at the back, have been proved correct. Obviously, confidence levels are through the roof at London Road and a win tonight, could easily take them into an automatic playoff spot, with second placed Huddersfield facing a tricky trip to Griffin Park, home of my beloved Brentford. Posh actually missed two penalties at the weekend, so let Carlisle off the hook ( !), they had 20 solid attempts on goal and kept things very tight at the back. They travel to Wednesday, who are still struggling under "new" boss Gary Megson, who seems to be running out of ideas and his post match interview where he stated... "We changed the formation , we put two up front which people have been advising me to do and that's the way forward ", hardly inspires confidence, why is taking advice from others after just a few weeks in charge ?The visitors put five past Wednesday at the beginning of last month in an eight goal thriller and are a different side defensively since then. Hosts have not won at Hillsborough in five, or beaten a top half team there since August ( !), hard to see that changing this evening.

Peterborough level ball 1.90 +.

YEOVIL TOWN - PETERBOROUGH UNITED 15/2/2011

Yeovil had been overperforming for several games, including committing highway robbery and getting away with three points at Griffin Park after being outplayed for 90 minutes, they have lost two since the bubble burst and will be without their top scorer again tonight, which will be a big loss against a side who concede as many chances as Posh. The visitors are playing incredibly well box to box, they dominated Charlton at the weekend, should have won by three, lost 3-2, they cannot keep a clean sheet, but are some day soon going to thrash someone. Darren Ferguson has raised the performance and expectation levels at London Road and he has a few more defensive options tonight, he is calling this the most important game since his return and firmly targeting three points. His side have scored 16 in their last five starts and sooner or later they will get things right at the back, Town like to keep things tight here, which is tactic that should suit Posh, who will be able to make the running, I feel they will win and possibly with a degree of comfort.

Peterborough United -0.5 2.40 general quote ... 2.50 in places.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

These are my basic pre match notes for the three games I am covering live this evening, they are incomplete without my half time notes/updates/ selections of course, but you might find them of some interest.......

CHAMPIONSHIP
IPSWICH TOWN - READING

This shoud be quite entertaining and I do not expect either to settle for a point. Town have drawn fewer home starts than any team in the Championship in any case and with a midtable finish seemingly assured, have no reason to be cautious. Reading are unbeaten in six and are playing at a very high level at present, they do have a FA Cup quarter final with Manchester City this weekend, but just six points off the playoffs, will surely give their all for the win this evening. They have scored more goals in the last five minutes of games ( 11 in total) than any other side in the division and are unbeaten in all 16 matches that Mikele Leigertwood has started, I have told you before how very important he has been to the Royals. Bit of a mini crisis for Town with several players facing late tests, team news vital here. Reading have collected points in 7 of the 11 games in which they have trailed at the half.

Confirmed team news: Kebe and Tabb out for Royals, Howard and Karacan in, a very adventurous 4-3-3 formation, at least thats what it looks like.

Town : Fulop, Edwards, McAuley, Delaney, O'Dea, Drury, Norris, Leadbitter, Martin, Scotland, Wickham..... no Bullard !

SWANSEA - WATFORD

Swansea will stay in second place with a win tonight regardless of what happens elsewhere which is a big incentive and will be looking to bounce back after a 1-0 loss at Scunthorpe on saturday. Despite the loss, they played well at Glanford Park on a pudding of a pitch, which did not suit their silky ball passing style of football, enjoying 61% possession and winning the attempts on goal count 18-9, coach Brendan Rodgers pronounced himself "pleased" with the performance afterwards and you will not hear that too often following a defeat. Watford now looked booked for a midtable finish despite ending a poor run with a 1-0 win over Millwall at the weekend, the Lions having had several clear chances to take the lead, the Hornets can beat anyone on a going day, but their lack of depth has caught up with what is a talented, but young and inexperienced squad. Key stat, visitors have won only 3 of the 12 games (25%) in which they have gone in level at the break, Swans 7 of 14 (50%).

Confirmed team news : John Eustace returns from suspension for Watford. Swansea: Dobbie in for Britton, Moore replaces Beattie, the same starting eleven who walloped Leeds here 3-0 recently.

DIVISION 1
BRENTFORD - BRIGHTON

No real history between these two clubs, but there is a little ill feeling between the two owners, who are probably the two biggest gamblers/syndicate owners in europe, not that that makes any difference, as neither is likely to play !

Brentford had a long and fruitless journey up to the North East at the weekend and performed poorly in a 3-0 loss to Hartlepool. That has left the Bees firmly in midtable and their Wembley final next month aside, we can only expect them to really get "up" for the bigger league fixtures and a visit from the league leaders, with a large travelling support under the floodlights at Griffin Park, which is always special, certainly falls into that category. Bees have already seen off Championship Hull City and EPL side Everton here this season and new boss Nicky Forster will want to recover quickly from his first loss in charge and claim another scalp, the game has extra meaning for Forster who returned to the Bees after three years with the south coast side last year and knows many of the visiting team well.

Brighton are also top of the second half table with an impressive 16-12-4 record, first goal might be crucial, Bees are 8-0-0 when leading at the half, only conceding twice, Brighton are 12-1-0 with just four goals against.

Confirmed team news: Four changes for the Bees, Bryne and Reed make their full debuts, Legge and MacDonald return..... strong looking team in my not so humble opinion !

Good Luck.

I will send match updates by email as usual .

SUNDAY ....

Way off the mark with the Lincoln - Stanley game yesterday, there were quite a lot of chances in the match and as is so often the case with these "over" bets, it is the first goal which is key and it never came. I had six picks yesterday, four won giving a 32% profit on the day, but unfortunately I posted one of the losers here. That is the gamble, the blog contains just a small sample of my output, so will always be more in the hands of the gambling gods.

I am involved in three events today and have picks I really like at odds of 6.50 and 8.0, the latter looks really good value and win or lose, I am incredibly happy with and excited about this bet, if you cannot understand my thought process about that statement, it is going to be very hard for you to make money gambling. I cannot post either of those selections here today, but will put up the third and hope that we enjoy better luck today ....

LA LIGA

SPORTING GIJON - GETAFE

Really massive game for Gijon who are one point from safety and face a daunting trip to Villarreal ( 11-2-1) next week , shortly followed by a visit to Real Madrid ( 13-0-0), they desperately need to pick up points from their next two home games and a visit from a mid table side, especially one coming off a midweek derby game, is about as good as it gets at this stage of the season. Hosts did have a recent 1-1 home draw with Barcelona, infact, they are the only team to take any points at all off the Catalan giants away from the Camp Nou and followed that up with another unlikely point at Valencia, they have since lost 3-0 at Sevilla, but that came on the back of some really tough games and they played well over an hour with ten men, all three goals coming after the dismissal. At least that match was played on tuesday, allowing Sporting a full 24 hours longer recovery time than Getafe, who played out a keenly contested Madrid derby with Atletico the next night, having led for 78 minutes there, the result would have been a disappointment to today's visitors. Apart from the suspended Eguren, hosts have a full squad to pick from, although one or two are carrying minor knocks and the coach might opt to rotate a little, that will probably be the case all across La Liga following a full midweek programme. Very motivated home side to collect the spoils.

Gijon -0.5 2.20 + .... 2.25 in places.

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

I have previewed three matches today and have posted one of them below. Around 50 of you will have already received my full notes for today's matches and will also get my pre match notes and half time updates for the additional three matches I am following "in running".

Funny week so far, Kolo Toure has been on the "slimming pills" ( he is a big lad though), not sure what Sir Alex was on with his post match comments about Martin Atkinson, he must have known what to expect (see Tuesday post) and also knows that he will have a more "favourable" referee in charge sometime soon, better to keep quiet on the odd occasion his team are on the rough end of the deal.

Another "big surprise" was that there was trouble on and off the pitch in a midweek evening Old Firm game in Glasgow, no one saw that coming ! They usually play at lunchtime on sunday for a reason ! Winners from this debacle, only Strathclyde police looking to rack up the overtime, losers, domestic violence reports up 70% in the city!

Hopefully we can focus on the beautiful game today and that my beloved Bees can play their part with some samba style football in sunny Hartlepool..... I live in hope !

Good Luck with all your bets today.

SATURDAY ....

DIVISION 2
LINCOLN CITY - ACCRINGTON STANLEY

I simply feel that the odds are wrong in this game and that the "over" option has been wildly overpriced. We were involved in the City midweek game ( I have reproduced my notes below) when they somehow beat Oxford 3-1, we got our money back with the "saver" bet there , but United were well on top and passed City off the pitch at times, despite shooting themselves in the foot with TWO own goals. City have not yet replaced Hoyte, who is out for the season and I explained how lost they have looked in his absence defensively, but this is a team who know where the goal is and Ashley Grimes and Delroy Facey are proving a handful for all defences at this level, they are "over" in 14 of their last 18 games. Stanley play a very open style, both at the Crown ground and on the road, where they are without a clean sheet in 14 starts.

Neither team has any relegation concerns, both sit seven points off the playoffs with games in hand on some of the teams above them, they will surely go al out for three points, with a draw of little value to either. The reverse fixture was very open, Stanley won 3-0 efefctively sealing the win with two early strikes, but City had plenty of chances despite finishing with ten men, they hit the woodwork and also missed a sitter when the game was still in the balance and there could/should have been more goals in the game.

With Scorer Street just around the corner from Sincil Bank how can there not be goals ?

"over" 2.5 goals 2.17

Good Luck.

LINCOLN CITY - OXFORD UNITED

We have discussed Oxford United quite a lot over the last couple of seasons and done well in backing them, including in the recent 3-0 win at Morecambe the preview for which is reproduced below, to save my two fingered typing skills from overwork. That was the U's last road start and the three points took them right into the heart of the playoff battle, they lost ground at the weekend with a 2-0 home loss to Hereford, but they played pretty well in that, 59% possession ,19-7 in chances and were denied two penalty appeals, the first of which was blatant, so I will put that down simply as a minor blip. Hereford scored in the eighth minute, by which time the home could already have been two up and got their second with a breakaway goal as time expired, the visiting boss Jamie Pitman called it their " best performance of the season", as Oxford were all over them, it gives you some idea of the level that Chris Wilder's team are playing at. Another is that CW is not an easy man to please, but he has already said that he will probably stick with the same starting eleven, which means a three man strike force even on the road, a policy which has served them so well in recent months.

Lincoln were unbeaten in five before a 2-0 home loss to Chesterfield and then a 4-2 defeat at Barnet on saturday. The first of those was 0-0 early when key City defender Gavin Hoyte ( on loan from Arsenal) went off injured, he is unavailable again tonight and they have conceded six goals in some 160 minutes in his absence. I have just watched extended highlights of the Barnet game, the home side were 3-0 up at the half, it should have been five, as they hit the woodwork twice and the City defending was shambolic, they could not handle or stop crosses into the box and big visiting target man James Constable will be rubbing his hands with glee if he has also watched those "lowlights". Very hard to see the home side keeping a cleansheet, but they do pose a strong offensive threat of their own, probably goals in this, would not put you off the "over", but I will take the away team off level ball and a tiny saver on four or more goals , 1-3 or something similar will do nicely !

1.5 units Oxford level ball 1.94
0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.75 + ..... 4.0 in places.

NICE TO SEE YOU, TO SEE YOU NICE !

Yes, it is normally a "good game" for Chelsea when Martin Atkinson is the man in the middle, here is a list of the last 16 Blues games in which the Leeds based referee has been in charge .......

BLACKBURN ROVERS 2011-01-15 H PREM W 2 0
FULHAM 2010-11-10 H PREM W 1 0
STOKE CITY 2010-08-28 H PREM W 2 0
WIGAN ATHLETIC 2010-05-09 H PREM W 8 0
STOKE CITY 2010-03-07 H FAC W 2 0
MANCHESTER UNITED 2009-11-08 H PREM W 1 0
LIVERPOOL 2009-10-04 H PREM W 2 0
ARSENAL 2009-04-18 N FAC W 2 1
SUNDERLAND 2008-11-01 H PREM W 5 0
STOKE CITY 2008-09-27 A PREM W 2 0
EVERTON 2008-04-17 A PREM W 1 0
LIVERPOOL 2007-12-19 H LC W 2 0
FULHAM 2007-09-29 H PREM D 0 0
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR 2007-03-19 A FAC W 2 1
WIGAN ATHLETIC 2007-01-13 H PREM W 4 0
SHEFFIELD UNITED 2006-10-28 A PREM W 2 0

Twelve straight wins with a 30-1 goal difference and only two conceded in sixteen starts.
One of those was a previous Chelsea-United game at Stamford Bridge, when the home side won courtesy of a late John Terry winner, however, key match decisions were made by Atkinson, when according to the BBC ..... "Twice Chelsea got the better of close early refereeing decisions, firstly when Anderson set Rooney through on goal only for the striker to be harshly ruled offside and then when Terry escaped punishment for an apparent tug on Valencia's shirt in the box ".

Regardless of the result tonight, it always pays to take a look at the man making the big decisions.

Good luck with your bets in what looks a very interesting midweek programme.

SATURDAY ....

EPL
ASTON VILLA - BLACKBURN ROVERS

There have been some incredibly high scoring encounters between these two clubs at Villa Park in recent seasons and given the team news today, I see this being little different. Last five h2h meetings here have ended 3-2. 3-1, 6-4, 3-1 and 3-1, the last of which was a FA Cup tie less than a month ago. The reverse league game at Ewood Park "only" produced two goals with Villa failing to register, but it was not for want of trying as they had 11 attempts on target, a big number on the road in the EPL. Hosts have struggled to keep clean sheets all season and can claim just one in 20 outings going back to late October, that came against Manchester City and the highflying Blues had 24 attempts on goal, so it is clear where Villa's problems lie, those problems have been compounded today with the news that they are without both starting centre backs in James Collins and Carlos Cuellar. Rovers are perennial poor travellers and have conceded a league high 31 times on the road, with a massive 23 allowed in their last 8 away starts in all competitions. Their giant defender Christopher Samba is expected to play but has been suffering with a virus this week and might be less than 100% fit, all in all, goals look very likely .

"over" 2.75 goals 2.19

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

I hope that some of you made use of my pre match notes yeseterday, as there were some solid clues there. These are in addition to my standard previews and are meant to be used as an aid to betting "in running", my notes clearly indicated that Coventry struggled against the top sides and that Swansea might be the more motivated of the two, also that Portsmouth had a poor first half record, yet were generally playing well.

My half time notes, sent within a minute or two of the first half ending by email, indicated that I thought Swansea might do enough to win ( then -0.25 2.13), but that I rated Portsmouth, who had totally dominated the first half a very solid bet @ -0.25 1.90 (my only in play selection). Pompey completed a 1-0 win which was far more comfortable than the scoreline might suggest.

There are real profits to be made on the "in play" markets, but the bonus is that by watching these lower league games live, you are picking up so much information for the future, I have never watched a game that I have not learned something from and I would urge you to get out there and visit your local club.

Good luck with all your bets today.

"LIVE" GAME PRE MATCH NOTES / TEAM NEWS

CHAMPIONSHIP

COVENTRY CITY - SWANSEA CITY

Hosts have managed just one clean sheet in ten starts and a very poor record against the top six, losing all ten starts this season. Swansea are unbeaten in eight h2h starts against the Sky Blues and arrive in good form with seven goals in their last two matches, with a big promotion "six pointer" with Leeds at the weeeknd they will be desperate for maximum points tonight and with Coventry having a big derby game on saturday and little to play for in the league, at least subconsiously their priorities might be elsewhere.

confirmed : Beattie, Pratley and Britton return.

Swansea City: De Vries, Williams, Taylor, Tate (c), Pratley, Beattie, Dyer, Sinclair, Rangel, Gower, Britton

Subs: Ma-Kalambay (GK), Van Der Gun, Dobbie, Moore, Allen, Agustien, Richards

Coventry: Keiren Westwood (C); Richard Keogh, Stephen O'Halloran, David Bell, Marlon King, Lukas Jutkiewicz, Martin Cranie, Aron Gunnarsson, Carl Baker, Richard Wood, Nathan Cameron.

Subs: Daniel Ireland (GK), Sammy Clingan, Freddy Eastwood, Chris Hussey, Gary McSheffrey, Jordan Clarke, Roy O'Donovan

PORTSMOUTH - CRYSTAL PALACE

Palace's miserly record at Selhurst Park has served them well recently, it is well over 12 hours since they conceded a goal on home soil and those points earned have enabled them to climb out of the drop zone and open up a five point lead over Sheffield United and co. On the road things are very different, they do not have a clean sheet in 12 starts and only one in the league all season, collecting a Championship low total of six points from a possible 48. Palace fans are very optimistic at present and many are expected to make the shortish trip down to the south coast this evening, problem is they were only given 1400 tickets, which have been sold out and a number already have, or are, planning to buy tickets for the home section, with Pompey not always the friendliest of venues, this could get "interesting",of course, we are only concerened with on the pitch activities, but games are sometimes affected by these events. Hosts have won their last two without conceding and now have a nice cushion over the drop zone, they are looking to win three in a row for the first time since October, they had previously outplayed both Derby and leaders QPR for long sections of the game and have now played pretty consistently for four consecutive matches, the 1-0 win over Barnsley on saturday might appear a bit laboured, but they stopped the Yorkshire side from registering a shot on target.

Portsmouth have a poor first half record, collecting a Championship low 32 points before the break.

confirmed :

Jonathan Hogg returns for Pompey following suspension,Liam Lawrence misses out after limping off with a calf injury, in a direct swap.

Pompey: Ashdown; De Laet, Halford, Rocha, Hreidarsson; Ward, Mullins, Hogg, Cotterill; Kitson, Nugent
Subs: Flahavan, Dickinson, Mokoena, Kilbey, Ciftci

WATFORD - BRISTOL CITY

We saw two sides of Watford last week, they were pretty poor against Preston, when they defended too high and were very fortunate to claim a share of the spoils. They were much better at Reading over the weekend and the Royals had to rely on their keeper to keep them in the game on several occasions, having said that, they again allowed their opponents a lot of joy out wide and balls into the box.Hornets are a very young side and consistency is going to be a problem, however, they did show their potential at times on saturday, the first time in several outings and we already know that on a going day they can beat anyone at this level.City are the side that the bottom three will have their eyes on catching, they have won just once since NYD, that's 9 starts, conceding 16 goals, with their only victory coming against woeful Preston North End, they are six points clear of trouble at present, but have played more games than most of the teams around them and face some relegation rivals in the coming weeks. I have already aired my doubts about Keith Millen, who spent a decade at my beloved Brentford in central defence, as a head coach and I just get the feeling that it is going to be a long couple of months for supporters of the Robins. However, let's see how the first half unfolds.

First goal here might be key, with both solid when ahead at the half, (10-2-0) and ( 6-1-1 only 4 goals conceded) respectively.

confirmed : Nicky Maynard makes his first start of the season, left back McAllister misses out, always a key position.

Good Luck.

I will send the usual update by email at half time, with a brief outline of what has happened so far and hopefully, one or two "in running" suggestions.

TUESDAY ....

I know from experience that the next month or two is likely to be very fruitful for the gambler prepared to "put in the hours" and do a little homework. Most teams in the UK are going to be playing twice per week and with a lot of these being rearranged fixtures, there is not always going to be the standard home/away mix and there will be a lot of tired legs, spending hour upon hour on the motorway, with little recovery time between games. When you take this into account, along with team news/ squad size, there is clearly going to be some advantage to be gained by the hard working punter. That is all we should be looking for, an edge over the oddsmaker.

We have almost a full lower league domestic programme in England today, several teams have had a horrendous weekend travel wise, one will have spent around 25 hours on a bus since Friday by the early hours of the morning and will have played six road games in the last five weeks ! That is very tough on the body, regardless of fitness levels.

Another has had to make a very similar 7-8 hour road trip twice, played on an incredibly draining surface that cut up badly on saturday and must play a team that is refreshed after a ten day break and who has just strengthened their squad with three higher league signings !

A third is totally devoid of confidence, have been clocking up the road miles and must now face one of the better teams in the division, with no options to freshen up the team, with over half the squad injured or unavailable.

Those are just three tales of woe and there are plenty out there, do a little research and I am sure the rewards will come.

Good luck , back later.

CANARIES BREED WINNING MENTALITY ..........

CHAMPIONSHIP
LEEDS UNITED - NORWICH CITY

I have had to censor some of my thoughts about this game and the two teams, as I do not want to post certain things on a open forum at the moment, so just basic notes.....

It is rare that I oppose United, being impressed by their quality and never say die attitude, but when games come down to a battle, which this surely will, you do not want to oppose City, who under the very impressive Paul Lambert, are probably the hardest team in the Football League to finish off. Last season I lost count of the number of games they turned on it's head to win in the second half, or with very late winners and this season is going the same way, with 16 points earned from losing positions and in the last month alone, they have notched 94th minute winners against both Millwall and Reading and an injury time equaliser when playing Cardiff, three of the better Championship teams. They did lose 2-1 at Burnley, but were all over the home side at 1-1, but for once condeded on the break, they are outplaying a lot of teams, creating plenty of chances, averaging over 13 attempts per game, the second highest in the division and will thump someone soon.

The whole club is geared up for success and is typified by the winning goal against Reading, time was all but up and the ball booted by a visiting player high up into the directors box, the City Chief Executive raced to get the ball and threw it immediately back and from the quickly taken throw in, the Canaries scored, with executive David McNally getting an assist ! They are relentless and from top to bottom the club has become used to winning, they expect these late goals to come and so they do. Like I often say, so much sport is played between the ears.

Norwich City +0.25 2.03

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

I have written four previews today, including one double stake selection, think that I will post two of them on the blog, one is below and I will add the other later in the morning.

DIVISION 1
COLCHESTER UNITED- WALSALL

Walsall did us a big favour in midweek with a 1-0 win over Dagenham, that might have appeared a little hard earned, but they once again dominated the game, created an enormous number of scoring chances and are playing at a completely different level from two months ago, when they looked certain to be playing fourth tier football next season. Coach Dean Smith has done an amazing job in his short spell in charge and his team could actually find themselves out of the drop zone with a win today. Smith has bought in a number of experienced players to work alongside his youngsters, who he can handle well having always previously been a youth team coach, this combination is working well and he has also given his players an attacking freedom which they didn't have under former boss Chris Hutchings. A brief word about Hutchings, he has only ever coached struggling teams ( Bradford, Wigan and Walsall) and never been able to instill a winning mentality into his teams, with barely a 30% win rate, losing becomes a habit and the Saddlers clearly needed a change and more positive approach. I am a firm believer that you need to be a winner, to know how to win ( which is not as simplistic as it sounds) and personally, I would rather take a lower league coach with a winning record, than one who has performed poorly at a higher level.

United have a reputation as a strong home team, but they have won the second lowest total of home starts amongst the top half teams and only Peterborough have conceded more goals. They have won just three of their last 13 starts, once was a very fortunate defeat of Swindon with a 94th minute goal and they trailed in the other two, this is another team who have lost their way a little and a good looking opponent for the inform and newly found confident visitors.

Walsall draw no bet 3.10 + ..... 3.25 in places.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ......

Today sees a very welcome return to Friday night Ligue 2 football and the start to the weekend has not been the same in it's absence. I have been swimming against the tide most of today and trying to find the time to pad out my three basic previews for tonight's french matches, but have decided against it. Would have had a little more time to complete the task, if I had not suddenly realised I had just spent 30 minutes of my time staring through my office window at the blossom which has recently appeared on the plum tree in my garden, but I guess there are worse ways to spend half an hour !

Anyway, I will definitely post a preview, maybe two, on here tomorrow so please check back and good luck in the meantime.

THURSDAY ...... AFTER THE LORD MAYOR'S SHOW !

After the excitement of Arsenal- Barcelona yesterday, when the Gunners fought back to earn what looked an unlikely victory at the break, we are left with slightly less thrilling fayre today. Five of my six early bets have won this midweek and I hope that you/we enjoy similar luck with number seven. It is an unusual one for me, as I rarely bet "under" the goal line, but someone has to bring the excitement levels down a peg or two and Rangers at home in europe usually fit the bill !

Europa League
Glasgow Rangers- Sporting Lisbon

Rangers have normally played a very defensive 4-5-1 formation in europe, even in ties at Ibrox and in their last 13 european games here, have failed to score seven times, scored a single goal on six occasions and a brace just once . Even three years ago when they reached the UEFA Cup final, three of their five home games ended 0-0, including a quarter final meeting between these two sides. They have pledged to be a little more adventurous tonight, but I am not so sure, they have the Old Firm derby with Celtic at the weekend, a match which is going to go a long way towards deciding the SPL title and one, given the rivalry between the two clubs, that has to always take priority. Sporting also have a derby game with Benfica, but as they trail the big two by a distance and are seemingly booked for third spot in the table, almost regardless of what they do between now and the end of the season, for them, the match this evening will surely take precedence.

Both these "big" clubs are struggling financially and each sold their top striker in the transfer window, the Rangers squad is a little thin and still fighting on four fronts, something is going to give sooner or later. I like the draw tonight, all the while the score is 0-0 I do not expect Rangers to be too concerned, or too push too hard, they have usually found a goal on the road in europe and are confident in their ability to stop their opponent scoring twice in the return leg. However, maybe the "under" bet is better, very hard for me to see either team scoring twice, unless we get a very early breakthrough and given that Rangers have only conceded once inside 25 minutes all season at Ibrox and kept Manchester United at bay for 87 minutes here and 90 at Old Trafford, that seems unlikely.

So, under 2.25 goals for me, I must admit that the 9.50 about 0-0 or no goalscorer was tempting, as was the half time draw at a juicy 2.10, but the less adventurous option for me this time.

"under" 2.25 goals 1.92 .

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

I have previewed three games today, but only written basic notes, so am not prepared to post them on here, as I have no wish and do not see the point in writing a 3-4 line match preview on the blog, although I did send a copy to several of you this morning.

I think there was plenty to take from the pre match notes posted yesterday and if any of you played those games in running, which is what they are designed for, you should have been able to turn a profit.

Good luck with your bets today and please check back in midweek when we have a hugely interesting domestic and european programme.

SATURDAY .....

I previewed four matches earlier today, not posting any of those on here, but am also covering three games "in running", below are my pre match notes for these which you may find of some help ......

I will update these three games by email at half time.

CHAMPIONSHIP

BRISTOL CITY - LEEDS UNITED

After drawing blank in five straight games, City scored four unanswered goals at Preston last week, but that probably says more about the problems at North End than any newly found attacking prowess by the home team. However, they have received a major boost this week with the return of Nicky Maynard, who is fit to play after missing all of the season so far and last season's top scorer will almost certainly take his place on the bench. This is a big game for the home side, the first time they have hosted Leeds in over 30 years in the league and it will be played in front of an almost sell out crowd. United are very ambitious and are looking for more than a playoff spot, they battled back from two down to earn a share of the spoils at Hull and then grinded out a 1-0 home win over Coventry, when they were very wasteful in front of goal, their breakthrough goal came coutesy of South African international David Somma who has been on fire in the last season and a bit for Leeds, on loan at Lincoln and for his country, totalling 20 goals in 32 outings, he looks a tasty 3.0 to score at anytime, something he has done in the last two games, providing he passes a late test. New loan signing from Aston Villa, US international defender Eric Lichaj will definitely start and will give them a further touch of class at the back. The cup games with Arsenal were a major distraction, but the win last week should have got them back on track and with massive games against Norwich and Swansea later in the month, they need maximum points today to keep the pressure up in the hunt for what increasingly looks like one remaining automatic spot. For me, the jury is still out on City boss Keith Millen, I am not sure he is a head coach, but do not want to go into that here at the moment, suffice to say I think that Simon Grayson has the edge in the tactical department. Visitors have had 208 attempts on target this season a division high total, yet still been denied by the woodwork 17 times ! United and Burnley are the only teams to have won three games when trailing at the half, yet Leeds have won just 5 of the 9 matches in which they have led. They do not sit back regardless of the score and their games have produced an average of 1.97 goals in the second half, City's games are producing 1.53 and we should see this open up after the break, but let us see how the opening half pans out.

Maynard on bench, City unchanged, Somma and Paynter on bench, attacking line up as usual for visitors and options for Grayson.

WATFORD - BURNLEY

Both these two are looking to get involved in the post season and with each sitting five points off the pace, we can surely expect these two attack minded teams to go all out for three points today. Burnley have lost just once under new boss Eddie Howe, but showed great character to bounce back last week and beat a very strong Norwich side in an extremely open encounter, City were a bit unlucky to be honest. Watford have impressed many people with their attacking play this season and their average of 1.89 goals per game, is the highest in the division, they are without a win in four, but one came in the cup and the two losses were against Forest and Cardiff two of the strongest Championship sides. Burnley might not score as many as the Hornets, but they have created 88 more goal scoring chances, almost three per start, they have been denied by the woodwork 17 times and only on fire Leicester have had more attempts on goal. However, one word of caution, the visitors have won just two of the 14 starts in which they have gone in level at the break, only PNE can "boast" a worsE record, but most of those game came under the former management.

Austin out ( illness) for Clarets, Iwelumo in ,straight swap and only change.

DIVISION 1

COLCHESTER UNITED - SWINDON TOWN

We watched Swindon on Tuesday at Orient and the margin of the 3-0 defeat was not really fair to Town who received a major blow just before kickoff with two players picking up injuries, one I believe in the pre match warm up although I am not 100% sure about the timing of that, however, they started the brighter of the two teams and could have gone ahead early before conceding, they then regrouped, hit the woodwork and were again well on top, when Orient were given a second despite a clear foul on a Swindon defender, they were still arguing about this with the match officials when the third goal went in almost immediately. They continued to press after this with 18 attempts on goal, 11 on target and perhaps half of these were really good chances, but the Orient keeper was in good form and it was just one of those nights ! They added Spurs striker Jonathan Obika on loan, he signed on Tuesday morning and came on in the second half, but looked a little rusty, he is very quick and with a couple of days training with the rest of the squad, will be more in sync with his team mates today. Boss Danny Wilson must be on very thin ice now, he lost top scorer Charlie Austin to Burnley, but looks to have spent some of the money wisely with the addition of Elliot Benyon from Torquay, who came off the bench to score a late equaliser at home to Rochdale on saturday and giant 2m central defender Aden Flint, who was a commanding presence on his debut in the same game. Flint was signed from non league Alfreton Town, but has been watched by any number of Football league scouts for months, a number of clubs were interested and it says something about Swindon that he choose them over Colchester, who had offered identical terms to the player and club. Hs fee of £150,000 plus sell on clause is massive in the current economic climate for a sixth tier player, but if all the reports are correct, the 21yo is a little bit special.

Rochdale came into that game on an unbeaten seven match run and with their slick pasing game, the visitors were probably suited by the very windy conditions, so a point for Town was a solid result and it could have been more as they had two cleared off the line, hit the woodwork and enjoyed 61% possession, which is not easy against a team as hard working as Dale, so plenty of positives for Danny Wilson's men. In their two previous outings they had much the better of Exeter in a 0-0 stalemate and lost by the odd goal in five at high flying Bournemouth, when they left very unhappy with the match officials. It is worth remembering that the core of this squad came within a whisker of reaching the Championship last year and I think that they are a little too good to go down , but they need to start picking up points and soon. Huge sequence of games now for Town, who have played more matches than the other teams around them at the foot of the table, the defence needs to sort itself out and the experienced pros like Andy Frampton need to give more help to the youngsters.

United will be happy to be back at the Community stadium after consecutive road losses without scoring and have defensive problems again today, they will want to prove to Flint that he chose the wrong team and with a draw being of little use to either, this could develope into an open encounter, but surely the visitors will want to try and keep this tight early and not lose the game in the opening 30 minutes like in midweek. Very interesting match up.

United are struggling to finish matches off and have drawn four of the seven games in which they have led at the half, but won two of the six in which they have trailed at the break. Overall they have the poorest second half record in the division, posting just six wins and losing twelve.Town have lost two of the four matches in which they have gone in ahead and their games have seen 51 goals in the second period, the third highest number in the division.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY .... IT'S ALL GRAVY !

Tuesday morning,the sun is shining in West London and the Bees are going to Wembley ! However, with the JPT final set for Mothering Sunday, there are going to be a lot a Brentford supporters negotiating with wives and mothers in the coming weeks ! Come on ladies, do the right thing, just tell the man in your life the only present you really want is a pair of tickets for the final !

Nicky Forster has a 100% record as a coach and taken a team to a Wembley final after just five days in charge, which must be a record that will never be beaten, it's all gravy for Bees fans at the moment, what a difference a week makes !

Pretty quiet day betting wise for a Tuesday, I do have one solid bet but will not be able to post it on here, so you are on your own, please check back later in the week.

Good Luck.

TODAY'S NOTES .....

I am a bit late today, sorry, I was looking at the english non league games today, but could not find anything of value.

However, we will be heavily involved in these in the coming month or two, so many non league teams have a massive number of fixtures to play and will be forced to play three matches per week, for several weeks, in order to complete their fixture list, in the Conference North for example leaders Nuneaton have played 25 matches, third placed Alfreton just 18 and the league will NOT be extended beyond April 30th. Many of these players are part time and have commitments outside football and their club is also likely to be involved in lower league cup compettitions too. They will have to pick and choose the matches they will focus on and a little team news is going to go a long way !

This has all come about because of the dire weather at the turn of the year, which has also left the pitches in a bit of a state, which is further likely to take it's toll, playing three games in a week on heavy, broken up pitches and working a 5 day week at the Post Office too, is a far cry from the EPL........... unless you are a Wigan player ! I think the groundstaff at the DW Stadium will be working overtime this week !

Only going to discuss the JPT Southern Final second leg today, which is a bit of a mouthful, between tiny Exeter City and the mighty Brentford, not that I am biased in any way, shape or form.

The tie is finally balance after a 1-1 draw at Griffin Park ( The Theatre of Sleepless Nights) and both clubs will be very motivated to progress and earn a day out at Wembley later in the year, which will brighten up what has been a dismal 2011 for both teams so far. City have won just once this year, beating Walsall, who were fairly hapless at the time 2-1 at St James Park, with the visitors having a lot of goal scoring chances. Brentford had lost six from seven in the league before beating Plymouth 2-0 on saturday, that was a good solid performance from the Bees, but I should add that many home fans were of the opinion that Argyle were the worst team they have seen this season, but, to be fair, the team in green have had a lot of off the pitch distractions to deal with.

This will also be the third start in six days for both and there are bound to be some very tired legs on the pitch tonight, even allowing for a little squad rotation, it is worthy of note that City faced both Southampton and Huddersfied last week, two of the better team in the division, they did a lot of running and to concede six on home soil in four days, is not good for the confidence, so advantage Brentford there. The two teams know each other well and in addition to the two 1-1 draws at GP, the Bees earned a famous 4-2 win in the league here three months ago, when everything in the garden looked so much rosier ! That was an incredible game, as City thought they were hard done by, despite Brentford having a "good " goal disallowed and missing two penalties ! They could have scored seven on the road, yet the highlight of the day was three Bees players arguing for what seemed like minutes over who was to take the second penalty !

So, three previous games, both teams scored in each, City have yet to win but might argue that were the better team for long periods in two of them. I am not so sure ( of course not !), Brentford could have scored 5-6 here and also dominated the league match at Griifin Park, I don't doubt that these are two very well matched teams, but Brentford have the better squad IMO and have a weight lifted off their shoulders after coach Andy Scott left the club last midweek. I have some sympathy for Scott, who's record at Brentford looks very good on paper, but his playing budget was huge compared to recent incumbents at the usually cash strapped club and the level of expectation from board and supporters alike in TW8 is so much higher now. Losing with a touch of style has been the Bees motto since I was in short trousers, but the football dished up this season has been poor, with just one or two exceptions, there were too many instances of terrible team selection, confidence was shot and a long relegation battle was fast becoming likely. So, the cries of Scott out were finally listened too and Brentford striker, hero, crowd favourite and all round good egg Nicky Forster was put in temporary charge of the club, with the aim of stopping the rot, collecting three points at the weekend ( so far so good) and getting the bees to Wembley.... simple !

Forster is a very different character to Scott, the former boss never endeared himself to the supporters who are used to a close relationship with their manager, so, when the results turned, so did they ! NF has been very open, talking to everyone either through the media or social network sites and immediately got everyone behind the team. The lift in the mood at GP Towers over the weekend was palpable and when the second goal went in, the change in the players was amazing, there were a few turns and flicks, that would not have come off the previous week, or even been attempted, and shock, horror several consecutive passes between team mates ! Here is a section from one of Forster's post match interview ...

(NF): Yes, I thought the lads were fantastic, I really did. From the start, all the way to the end. At the end I said in there that the players managed the game themselves. From the moment we scored we grew in belief. In the second half we won that comfortably I thought. As I said they managed the game themselves and there wasn’t a lot for us [the management team] to do.

I thought the crowd was instrumental today. They started off in great spirits and the goals lifted them as well and both helped each other. I don’t think those on the sidelines or behind the scenes deserve the credit. I think the players deserve the credit today, and the fans too.

Interviewer: You asked the players to express themselves and they did it?
NF: I thought they did and I thought Myles Weston was back to his best. Talking about managing themselves, I put Myles on the left and Sam Saunders on the right, and half way through the first half I realised they had swapped over and I hadn’t told them to do that!

Myles thought he could get at Duguid and get crosses in and they did. I challenged those two players to get crosses in and feed the two boys up front.

I’m not going to single anyone out, as a team I thought they were fantastic.

I know it is only one win, but it is more about the mood at the club, everyone is moving in the right direction and Forster has the respect of the players, which Scott had probably lost. Incidently, I heard that within 60 minutes of the decision being made to part company with Andy Scott, that Brentford had received 46 applications for the job ! Many people have said that former boss Martin Allen is favourite for the job, I cannot see that, to my mind that would be a backwards step and not what I would expect from the current board/ owner. People have short memories, many fans would be happy to see him back, but far too often Allen didn't have a plan b, let alone plan c and his style of management seems a little dated to me, I would be surprised if he was seriously considered, but what do I know ? I understand that he, Dennis Wise, Gary Johnson and Ray Wilkins were all at the match on saturday, for no reason other than something to type, I can tell you that Wilkins has a strong family connection with the club, his brother Graham and father George both pulled on the famous ( in my household) red and white stripes and "Butch" was born in nearby Hillingdon.

Back to the game, City striker Jamie Cureton ALWAYS scores against Brentford ( three already this year) and despite missing the last two games, you can almost guarantee he will pass a late test and play tonight, he will get plenty of stick from the travelling supporters and give them some back when he scores his usual goal ! Ben Hamer, who has had four ( I think) loan spells at Brentford is also likely to be passed fit to take his place between the sticks tonight for City, last game he played for the Bees was that 4-2 win here back in October, football is a funny old game, Hamer will geta warmer reception from the visiting fans.

I feel both teams will once again score, the game is likely to get very stretched especially in the second half , I believe fitness levels at both clubs are good, but the two games against stronger sides last week might just have taken a little more out of City and they always concede at home ! I will take Brentford with the handicap start and refound confidence. By the way, did I say that Cureton always scores against the Bees ?

Brentford +0.25 1.97 +

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .....

I am unable to post anything on here today. I do have bets for one UK match, one Italian fixture and the Superbowl, but my notes are fairly basic and not anything I feel happy posting on here, sorry.

Many of you got my notes yesterday, so have had something from me this weekend and I will probably post a preview of the JPT game live on Sky tomorrow night and also discuss the related events from Brentford of the last week.

Until then, good luck with your bets today.

SATURDAY ....

I am not posting any match previews on the blog today, but have sent my notes by email to a number of readers this morning. Should you wish to receive a copy, please email me at stencelwade@btinternet.com and I will forward one as soon as possible.

Otherwise, please check back tomorrow, when I will definitely be posting some thoughts on here on a very busy day of sport.

Good Luck.

TOUGH LIFE OF A PROFESSIONAL GOLFER ..... HAVING TO LIVE ON $4M PER YEAR AND MARRYING A COWGIRL !

USPGA
FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN

Leaderboard looks a lot like this ....

-12 Mickelson- Haas
-11 Mahan - Watson
-10 Kim
-9 Vegas

Winner should come from this group of players. Mickelson grew up here in San Diego and has a terrific record on the couse, but almost all of his best rounds came before the major redesign of Torrey Pines which happened almost a decade ago.

I am interested in Hunter Mahan , he grew up in Southern California too although just a little further north and seemed very contended with life in general in his post round interview yesterday. This was key, as he recently married ( a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader) and this appears to suit and has motivated him, for others it can have the reverse effect, at least in the early stage of marriage. Mahan is a very solid round 4 player, one of the best on tour and was ranked inside the top 8 in both 2008 and 2009, last year he changed his approach slightly, putting in huge effort when in contention and less when not, this meant his ranking dropped, but he also cliamed two tour wins for the first time in his young career. He closed with a 65 to win the Phoenix Open and a fine 64 to claim the prestigeous WGC Bridgestone. He also shot a final round 66 here at Torrey Pines last year for 11th place and a 67 on sunday at the Hyundai Tournament in his only previous outing of 2011.

All play will be on the South Course today, where Hunter is 7 under par on the back 9 for his two rounds this week. He missed a few fairways yesterday, but his approach play and especially putting was good, drive for show, putt for dough is the mantra by which we profit and if he can find a little more solidity off the tee today, I expect him to go very close.

Hunter Mahan to win outright 6.0 + ... a little bigger on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

PRE MATCH ...

Good start to the day with the Villa- Blackburn bet landed inside 43 minutes and our tiny but huge odds multiple bet off to a flyer !

CRYSTAL PALACE - NORWICH CITY

Big game for both, three points for Palace, who have yet to win, or even score a goal,under new boss Dougie Freedman, would see them climb out of the drop zone, for City, a point would take them up into an automatic playoff spot. Freedman has been busy taking vastly experienced Lennie Lawrence as his assistant and re-signing James Vaughan on loan from Everton, this will be Vaughan's second spell at the club, scoring five goals in 14 appearances previously. During that time he worked with Freedman in training a lot and now Palace have plenty of offensive options with Vaughan, Counago, Easter, Iversen and Ambrose ( who will strip fitter after returning last week) all vying for starting roles. Freedman was prepared to gamble last week at home to Bristol City pushing men forward in search of a winner and we can expect him to do likewise today. Both these two open up after the break, with their games this season averaging well over 1.5 goals in the second half. City are very solid on the road, with a 6-5-2 record, but struggle to keep a clean sheet with just one in 14 starts, which came against league leaders QPR, actually they have two clean sheets against QPR this season a double which not many clubs will achieve.

Late goals are a real feature of the visitor's matches, their last 7 sarts have seen 12 in the last 29 minutes, with five in the last 5 minutes of play.City have claimed points from 5 of the 8 matches in which they have trailed at the half and along with QPR have collected most points after the break when going in leve l. Palace have only scored 5 goals in the 10 matches in which they have trailed, losing 9 and only turning around one, the reverse fixture at Carrow Road. That might be key, I kind of sense an upset today and goals maybe late n the match, but let's see how the first half plays out.

Vaughan and Ambrose start, lots of goals on bench, massive away support in the ground.

HULL CITY - QPR

City have let Bullard go to Ipswich, but signed Tunisian international Tijani Belaid on a short term loan, he spent his formative years at Internazionale and has, I have heard, really impressed at the club in training,he is anxious to claim a full time deal and if he can adapt to the pace of the game in the Championship, he should be an asset. We have talked recently about how much stronger the squad is now at Hull and we watched them last week at Reading, they disappointed early, but stepped up their game after the break, especially with the introduction of Manchester United player Corey Evans and after taking the lead, were perhaps unlucky not to claim the spoils with Matty Fryatt missing a very good chance. Still, a point at the Madejski is not to be sniffed at and City have now lost just once in 12 in a tough run of fixtures. Rangers have not really fired since Boxing Day but have stregthened the squad in the transfer window, with three EPL quality players and they are only interested in getting across the finishing line and probably don't care how it happens. They still play almost everything through Taarabt, who has been sensational this season, the ball he played Routledge to set up the winner against Coventry last week was out of this world, and visiting boss Aidy Boothroyd said he was tempted to run on the pitch to kick him, as it was the only way he could be stopped !

Rangers are 8-0-0 when ahead at the half, but have only scored four times in the five in which they have trailed, without winning. They do have the best record in the Championship when level at the break, when they are much stronger ( unless behind) scoring 70% of their goals, yet conceding only 50% in the second period.

BRENTFORD - YEOVIL TOWN

My beloved Bees really need this one if they are to get something out of the season. They will have benefitted from a free week after looking jaded recently and should strip much fresher than Yeovil, who will be without two starting defenders today, after both were dismissed at Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday night, leaving the west country side to play 30 minutes with 9 men ! That is a lot of running to say nothing of a long trip to Yorkshire and back followed by another away day to the capital just 2-3 days later. Town are the worst second half team in the division with only four wins and are 0-0-8 when trailing, scoring just 4 times. Bees are good when they get their noses in front, with a 5-0-0 record , conceding just once when leading at half time, but are almost as poor as Yeovil (0-1-6) when behind. They are overdue some goals and if Brentford can get ahead early, they could run away with this, with the visitors surely set to tire on what is a draining Griffin Park pitch at present. We will see how the surace holds up come half time.

I will update all three games by email at half time as usual.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..... PENNEY WISE ROVERS LOOKING TO FOYLE SADDLERS .....

Millwall won last night which made up for the Zvonareva bet, although I know that several of you took the hint on the "correct score" in the Li Na- Wozniacki match and obviously, I regret not putting that up as a selection. However, as I have always told you. I feel that what is written in the preview is at least and often more valuable than the actual selection and you will get more from the previews by reading them properly and doing a little work yourself.

I previewed four games for today last night at 21.00 and have included one of them below, I will also be covering several "in running" for "friends" and might post another preview, or some notes from those, a little later in the day should you wish to check back.

DIVISION 1
WALSALL - BRISTOL ROVERS

You know what I think about Walsall, that they are booked for Division 2, they have signed Jason Price on loan this week, but he is getting very long in the tooth now and whilst he has been a good player at this level, JP has been doing the rounds in the last season or two, which is never a good sign. Rovers had a terrific result last time out beating Swindon in a derby game 3-1 with experienced new loanee David McCracken putting in a MOTM performance and helping out some of his younger fellow defenders. New boss Dave Penney has been very busy, bringing in a tried and tested number two in Martin Foyle and two more signings on Friday in Rene Howe from Peterborough and Scott Davies of Reading. Howe is a big lump of a striker who scored a lot of goals in the Conference and he will be the ideal target man for Rovers, Davies is a young midfielder with plenty of games under his belt at the lower levels, which is the Reading way, to get them out on loan and learning the game.

Massive game for both, Walsall will have to gamble, they are now effectively ten points adrift of safety, Rovers are just two points off that elusive 20th spot and a win for them will realistically mean that one relegation spot is all but decided. The two played out a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture recently and I do expect goals again, which is normally the case when two strugglers meet.

1.5 units Bristol Rovers level ball 2.25
0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.0

Good Luck.

LIONS ON THE PROWL FOR POINTS ........

Millwall - Barnsley

You all know that I am quite keen on this Millwall side and I feel they will get stronger in the next few weeks, providing there are no major moves out of the New Den and by that I mainly mean Steve Morison. Kenny Jackett continues to upgrade his squad and the addition of Arsenal youngster Craig Eastmond for the rest of the season looks good business, he is a former young Lion, so knows the set up and area well. I do not think he will take too long to settle in and I expect him to help shore up what looked a leaky defence at Leicester last weekend, in the midfield holding role. I am not too concerned about that performance to be honest, they lost 4-2 to a rapidly improving Foxes team, but they put two new defenders in the team, ended the match with ten men and missed a penalty with the scores tied. They were previously unbeaten in nine starts and with a free week under their belts they will not only strip fitter, but will also know each other a little better, a win tonight will take them right onto the playoff fringe and with a trip to highflying Norwich City next midweek, they will see three points here as vital if they are going to push for a post season spot.

Barnsley must surely come here a little jaded, they had to play a road Yorkshire derby game on Tuesday night and now have to travel down to the capital to play on Friday, their 9th start since Boxing Day, whilst the Lions have had a third consecutive free midweek and should be raring to get back on track. The Tykes did win that match earlier in the week, 2-0 at Doncaster, but that was a rare road win for them, ( seven away defeats already) and Rovers have lost their way, conceding 15 in five starts, so I would not read too much into that.

Millwall came on strong at this time of year last season, entering December in 10th place and ending in third, followed by a playoff win at Wembley. They will be planning a similar push, but need the three points tonight.

Millwall -0.75 2.08 +

Good Luck.