Thursday August 8th
I
really do not like these early stage Europa league matches, betting
limits are small and many matches are quoted to largely encourage one
way action at low odds (at least early in the day), or that is the way
it seems to me, which is not the asian bookmakers usual approach. From
the playoff stage onwards (August 22/29) the competition becomes far
more interesting.
My
own prices for the two Brazilian games tonight, were very similar to
the existing line and that doesn't leave an awful lot else, so, just a
few words about the USPGA Golf Championship, the last major of the year.
Two
emails on Friday, the first at 10.00 UK time will focus heavily on
Ligue 2 and the follow up at 16.00, is effectively the first of a whole
host of Saturday notes and will cover the morning J-League fixtures.
USPGA Golf Championship:
Oak Hill Country Club,Rochester, New York
This
is expected to be a very tough championship, it is a difficult Par 70,
with small greens that slope violently and with very penal rough if you
venture too far off a straight line. The course is set up like a US Open
course and it is the winner of that event and email favourite, Justin Rose, I expect to go well this week.
He
was always likely to be distracted after winning his first major and
the media attention after his victory at Merion in June was great and he
freely admits he was not as well prepared for the Open at Muirfield
(missed cut), as he should have been.
He claimed to be refocused now and said last week ... "I
did my best to enjoy being a major champion for the first month or
so, but there does come a point where the back-slapping that you get
from everybody, which is obviously very nice, in some ways can prevent
you from staying fully focused on what's ahead."I feel like two months
removed from it now, I feel like the trophy is back at home."I've pretty
much been travelling with it non-stop for four or five
weeks and it's back home where it should be and I can reflect on it in
quiet moments, but it's time to move forward."
He
showed up well enough in the WGC Bridgestone last week with a 17th
place finish and that should have set him up nicely coming here, he
missed the Open cut last year too, was 5th in the WGC event and 3rd in
this, so largely similar form, as we can make excuses for, but also
positively factor in, the major win this time round.
He
spent too long back in the UK after that famous victory and it
interfered with his usual disciplined approach to events, last week and
this, were the first tournaments that he has been fully prepared for
since then and he should significantly come on for his showing ar
Firestone, where his weekend 69-69 was only bettered by six golfers.
In
the last seven years, he has played 25 majors, missed the cut in 9 and
posted eight top ten, 11 top 20 and 13 top 25 finishes in the other 16,
with an average finishing position of 18.8, I would argue strongly that
he is a much
better player now than 5-7 years ago and far less likely to miss a cut
on a US Open style course, which plays to all his strengths. If he makes
the cut this week and he is very motivated and will surely be focused
from day 1 as he is partnered with the two other 2013 major winners in
Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott, then he has a 69% chance to turn that
into a top 20 finish. The odds for him to do so are 2.10 -2.20 which are
way above my own idea of the correct odds (1.70-1.80) , so we have to
bet, but with a little caution ( he would normally be a 1.75 unit
selection) as we are already on him quite big in the Race To Dubai, see preview. He has been overtaken there by Henrik Stenson (leaderboard), which I also expect to serve as further motivation this week, but is still favourite for the "money list" , at roughly
half the odds we originally bet.
1.5 units Justin Rose to finish top 20 USPGA Championship 2.10-2.20 view odds
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