TUESDAY NOTES ....

TUESDAY APRIL 3rd

Busy week in prospect and there is a schedule for content and posting times at the foot of this email, including an early bet for NEXT midweek, please take a quick look.

The domestic fixtures do not make much appeal today, but I suppose I should say a few words about the League 1 match up between Brentford and Oldham Athletic. Understandably, given their recent form the Bees have been backed in asia over the last day or so, down from 1.92 to circa 1.80 and any value has gone. Brentford have been inconsistent this season, especially here at Griffin Park, but have won three in a row for the first time this season and a win and only a win will help them retain their slim playoff hopes.

The Bees have played pretty well in those three wins and in Clayton Donaldson who has scored in each, they have a striker in his best goalscoring form of the campaign. I have had good recent reports of Oldham, with their performances better than results, but they do not have a lot to play for, one more win will give them 51 points and you have to be unlucky in the extreme to be relegated with that total and that magic number is already out of reach of the bottom three IMO.

I can also tell you that Brentford have tended to put in improved performances in return fixtures ( second matches with clubs), this says a lot about them tactically and augurs well for next season, when Uwe Rosler and his backroom team will have far more information on their opponents. The Bees won 2-0 at Boundary Park back in September.

Also, the Bees have posted very good results in matches against teams from the North West, being unbeaten in seven ( 4-3-0) and scoring two or more in six of those, they came up short at Bury ( 1-1) but should have scored four that day and should have also won there and at Tranmere Rovers ( 2-2) , where they threw points away. I do not think that this is coincidence, as Rosler and his first team coach both have homes in the Greater Manchester area and see a lot of games there. Just in case your geography is a little off, Oldham is about 11km northeast of Manchester.

Anyway, hopefully the Bees will win, Donaldson will score a couple, although no 20.0 is available today and other results go their way over the Easter period.

I am going to cover the US Masters golf over the next two days, again, the schedule is below, but I can say a few words about ......

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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE:

BAYERN MUNICH - OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE

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BARCELONA - AC MILAN

I admit to being tempted by the visitors getting a big handicap start, but I find it hard to get their performance at the Emirates out of my mind, when an early goal by the Gunners rocked Milan and if Arsenal had better options on the bench that night, they might have done the impossible and come back from four down. However, Milan played pretty well in the first leg and had chances to win. It was a very physical battle, with lots of fouls by both teams, Barce were prepared to mix it up with Milan and break up attacks before they started, even Lionel Messi was guilty of this and tonight, might well develope into a similar pattern, it will be interesting to see if Barce stick with Keita , or go with more width.

Pep Guardiola thinks it will be a very different game and one full of goals, let's hope he is right, Barce have scored in thir last 16 home games in the Champions League, averaging close to three goals per game, Guardiola also said that he thinks Milan will score and they have to, to give themselves any chance to progress, they scored two here in a 2-2 draw in the group stage and that was without Zlatan. In the last decade Barcelona have played 46 matches in the knockout stage of the competition and conceded in 60.86% of those, so you could argue that they is value in the visitors scoring at 1.91 or both at 2.04 on the exchanges, given that Milan will have to open up at some stage.

Someone told me when the draw was made that Milan would XX XXXX XX XXX X XXX XXX in the second leg, make of that what you will. The first match was physical and the swedish match officials pretty lenient and Jonas Eriksson's record bears that out. Tonight, Bjorn Kuipers is in the middle and he has awarded 23 yellow, four red cards in five UEFA games this season and looks more likely to take action . Actually, he sent off two Porto players against Barcelona in the "meaningless" Super Cup game with Barcelona at the start of the season, so the circa 3.70 for a sending off might appeal.

Very intresting game, but no "official" bet for me, if pushed for a selection, I guess both to score would be my pick.

MILAN :Abbiati, Amelia, Piscitelli, Abate, Antonini, Bonera, De Sciglio, Mesbah, Mexes, Nesta, Zambrotta, Yepes, Ambrosini, Aquilani, Boateng, Emanuelson, Nocerino, Seedorf, El Shaarawy, Ibrahimovic, Maxi Lopez, Pato, Robinho.

Good Luck.

SCHEDULE FOR THIS WEEK

Wednesday April 4 : Champions League and US Masters Golf Outright ....... to be sent 10.00 Wednesday

Thursday April 5 : Europa League and US Masters Golf Round 1 Match Ups...... to be sent 10.00 Thursday

Friday April 6 : Ligue 2 and circa 25 Good Friday UK football fixtures ....... to be sent 17.00 Thursday

Saturday April 7: Email # 1 Normal Saturday Football programme ....... to be sent 10.00 Friday

Email #2 US Masters Golf Update ........ to be sent 11.00 Saturday

Sunday April 8 : Email # 1 Normal Sunday Football programme ...... to be sent 10.00 Sunday

Email #2 US Masters Golf Update and Early midweek football selection ** ....... to be sent 11.30 Sunday

Monday April 9: Easter Monday Full English domestic programme ....... to be sent 10.00 Monday

All times as always are UK times.

** I will almost certainly have an early and very strong bet for midweek, which I want to give as soon as the asian odds are released on Sunday, this will almost certainly be a double stake maximum bet, the first of 2012 as the previous match was postponed.

SATURDAY EMAIL NOTES .....

Rangers game has just finished.

SATURDAY MARCH 31st

Sedan missed a penalty at around the hour mark last night, think that probably cost us not just the 10.0 + treble, but also the 70.0 for all three to go over 3.5 , with the other two matches obliging. But the two main selections did win with a degree of comfort. There is another long odds treble at the foot of the email if you want to try again for minimal stakes.

SPL : MOTHERWELL - GLASGOW RANGERS

We saw the old Rangers last week, in what will go down as one of the famous Old Firm victories, that will have given them a huge confidence boost and training is said to have been fanatstic all week at Ibrox, with the players on a high. Carlos Bocanegra will be suspended after being sent off against Celtic , but Steven Whittaker returned in that match, as did Kyle Lafferty who came on as a second half substitute. Sasa Papac, Dorin Goian and Sone Aluko also returned recently and the squad now bears some resemblance to the one that was leading the SPL early season. Eight of the players that beat Motherwell 3-0 at Ibrox in the New Year game are likely to start today , with two others on the bench, they could hardly arrive in better heart considering the events of the last few months and are very much Motherwell's bogey side. Rangers won both games 3-0 this season and have won on their last three visits to Fir Park, scoring twelve goals in the process. Home and away Rangers have scored 6-3-4-6-3-3-5-4 in the last eight h2h meetings, now they are priced at 5.0 + to do likewise today, just seven days after they did the same against Celtic.... seems wrong, given the strength of the starting eleven today, two bets ...1.25 units Rangers to win 2.25 +...... Rangers to score over 2.5 goals 5.0 + .... 5.50 in places.

EPL : WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS- BOLTON WANDERERS

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CHAMPIONSHIP : PORTSMOUTH - BURNLEY

Michael Appleton has got Pompey up and running just in time and it might still not be too late to save them from relegation, there was much to like about their 4-1 defeat of Birmingham City and follow up 2-0 win over Hull City in their last two starts at Fratton Park, both of those two are still hoping to play top flight football next season. Appleton was purring after the Hull game and said "I was delighted. It was total dominance from minute one to 95. It was the best performance since I have been in charge by an absolute mile."
They have to continue winning at home and a visit from Burnley should not strike fear into the hosts at persent, we talked last week about how the Clarets have lost their way and if they allow Pompey half as many chances as they gave the Hammers, then there can be only one winner. The visitors are without a win in seven and in five on the road. Portsmouth would only be seven points behind Burnley without their points deduction and their home record of 9-5-5 is better than many top half teams , including Leeds United and Hull City. The visitors might once again be without Jay Rodriguez, he is very important, not just top goalscorer, but also having had most attempts on goal (110). Portsmouth -0.5 ball 2.30 +

LEAGUE 1 : MK DONS - BRENTFORD

Bees are coming off two wins, a 2-0 defeat of Rochdale and a 3-1 win at Preston in midweek, before we get too carried away, many Brentford supporters felt that Dale were the worst team that had visited Griffin Park this season and PNE are in a bit of a mess at the moment. There is going to be a big clearout at Deepdale in the off season, many of the senior players have not bought into the Graham Westley philosophy and I understand there was something of a player revolt at the club recently, with 8-9 players "refusing" the extra training. Big clampdown from GW of course and he was supported by the board, but he now knows he needs his own men in during the summer and they are not a team you could back at present. Bees were all over them and could easily have scored five in the first half ( they got two), having missed 4-5 absolutely clear chances. This probably says as much about PNE as it does the Bees, but they can do no more than win and they did it well. They changed formation slightly and really enjoyed the big open spaces of Deepdale and will have similar surrounings today at Stadium MK, where the playing surface is huge, as you all know now, because I mention it at least once per month !

Bees took experinced striker Clinton Morrison on loan ahead of the Rochdale game, he has not had much game time yet, but his arrival appears to have revitalised Clayton Donaldson who has scored three in the last week and really ought to have doubled that number, seriously, he must have been played in clear on goal six times in midweek. Anyway, the three scored will have been a huge boost for him, he was League 2 top scorer with 28 goals last season , but has only managed eight this campaign. However, he is essential to the way Brentford play and has started almost every match, making a very big all round contribution, but in front of goal, his touch has deserted him, you know how these strikers are, they thrive on confidence and today he will be desperate to shoot, whereas two weeks ago, he was probably dreading it.

Bees have a very good record here having not lost in six away starts with Dons, four on this ground, including a win here in the JPT earlier in the season. They might also have a mental edge from the reverse league fixture which ended 3-3, Dons were three up very early and at the break, but Brentford came out firing and pulled a point out of the fire. Dons should be up for this, having lost at home to Carlisle United in midweek, but that effectively ended their dreams of an automatic promotion place and with a playoff spot looking secure, it might take another game or so for them to get over the disappointment. Brentford draw no bet 3.40 + general quote .... 3.50 on offer, if you can find anything close to these quotes, you might also want to try something very small on either Clayton Donaldson to score 3.50 general quote, or Clayton Donaldson to score twice 20.0 Paddy Power/ 17.0 Bet 365

LEAGUE 1 : AFC BOURNEMOUTH - YEOVIL TOWN

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SERIE A : CATANIA - MILAN

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Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com