SUNDAY .....

The mighty Bees started with a 2-0 win over Yeovil Town and put in a very pleasing performance, when it all clicks for them this season they are going to administer a few thumpings and these are exciting times for Brentford supporters. Potential big players in League 1 Charlton and both Sheffield clubs also opened up with comfortable wins and this division looks set to be a corker ! May the best team win, as long as they reside in TW8 !

Early season big game next weekend when the Bees travel to face Sheffield United at Bramall Lane and I am already looking forward to it !

The following formed part of my notes for today ......

In the SPL Glasgow Celtic travel north to face Aberdeen who are missing key players and made a sluggish start to the new season. The visitors have had great success here in recent times, in a fixture which almost always produces goals. Nine of the last ten starts at Pittodrie have gone "over" with eight producing four or more. It doesn't really matter how the home side approach the game, they have tried keeping it tight, packing the midfield and also going toe to toe, but once the first goal goes in, it always develops into a shoot out, invaribly won by the Hoops.

Home fans are very pessimistic about this one, many are staying away in a sulk about the clubs lack of investment, they are short of maybe three starting players and that is when everyone is available and they are without the suspended Ryan Jack today and at least a couple of Clark, Mawene and Fyvie will either miss out or play at less than 100%. It is a sign of how bad things are at Aberdeen that they are desperate to get them on the pitch, despite missing almost all training this week, the 18 yo Fyvie was sat on the sidelines on Friday, yet coach Craig Brown still wants to try and get the youngster involved. This all smacks of desperation and the Dons look fearful of another big defeat. I think Celtic will win with a degree of comfort, but they are a little skinny on the handicap line, there is always a chance that Aberdeen might suddenly be inspired by the television cameras and a match with one of the Old Firm ,come to life and find a goal or even two, which would probably still not be enough as I can see the pace of the Celtic forwards running riot. However, that is just enough to make me lean towards the "over" 3 goal line, a bet that would have lost once and won eight times in the last ten meeting at this stadium. "Over" 3 goals 2.21 asian line.

I am very happy with and excited by our top ten bet on Zach Johnson in the WGC Bridgestone event ( see below). He shot a tied low round of the day 64 yesterday and is in a 9th place overnight, but just four strokes off the lead, Luke Donald also had a great day and was one of the other two to post a 64, which took him to within three of the lead and a victory for him would be huge for our money list bet. Donald is 10.0 to win and Johnson a massive 48.0, amongst the leading contenders these have been the two best Round 4 players on tour this year. With the englishman ranked 3rd with a 69.0 average and Johnson inside the top ten with 69.46. For either to win they would need to go low again, but both know where the winner's circle is nowadays and it would not surprise me if one or both made a big charge this afternoon. We already have a heavy involvement with ZJ, but if you are not on, or wanted to "waste" a few euros at big outright odds, I would look at these two.

Good Luck.

Written Thursday August 4
The USPGA Tour sees the return of Tiger Woods at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational today, it is still odd to see 20-1 + quotes for Woods, especially at a tournament he has dominated in the past, he claims to be in good shape, but we have to see that on a golf course before getting involved. Zach Johnson is probably a little short off the tee to win this week, but should put in another solid finish. Our man, who you all know I believe is a winner in waiting , has been playing solidly for three months with nine solid tournaments is a row, all were Top 30 finishes ( OK one was 32nd), with four top six placings and a sluggish opening round has cost him badly in four starts. He was 33rd here last year, but finished inside the top twenty in the three previous years ( 15-16-11) which is a very solid record on a course which is not ideal. Having said that, neither was the Open Championship and Johnson was 16th there, with no real history in the event. This is a short field event, with half the number of runners we normally see on tour and despite his shortcomings distance wise off the tee, ZJ is probably playing too well to be kept out of the top 20 , therefore it is impossible for me to let the 5.0 + for a top ten finish pass and I have to take a little, he is 5.50 with Pady Power and Bet 365 and over 5 should be available on the exchanges later in the morning.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

WHAT A START !

Here are my notes prepared with love and attention and sent out this morning, all four selections won, all with a degree of comfort.

Brentford 2-0, Southend 1-0, Aldershot 2-1 and the Reading game finished 2-2. All of you who took part in the seven day trial, were well aware of my thoughts about Brentford and Aldershot several weeks ago and I hope that some of you took advantage.

Saturday August 6th .... notes sent at 09.18 this morning ...

We already have the Brentford selection ( reproduced at the foot of the email) and I have three other matches to discuss.

In the Championship, two of the potential big players Reading and Millwall ,meet at the Madejski Stadium , I saw both of these play a couple of times last season, including the reverse fixture which was the most open 0-0 draw I have ever seen. It is no exaggeration to say that 4-4 would have been a truer reflection of the game and the two teams went end to end and toe to toe for 90 minutes, both keepers were in inspired form and I lost count of the number of times they saved "one on one's". We made use of this with an "over" bet in the return game, which ended 2-1 to the Royals, all those goals came well inside the first hour and this was another match which could have produced far more.

Hosts were very unlucky not to have made it to the promised land of the EPL and whilst they may suffer something of a hangover from that, early signs , at least in pre season, is that they have already put that behind them. They managed to make the signing of Mikele Leigertwood permanent, what was absolutely vital, as they are a much better team when he plays, MUCH better, he picked up a knock in the last pre season game, but I saw him at the training ground yesterday and am pretty sure he will play. Shane Long is still at the club, at least for for the time being. Millwall finally sold Steve Morison, but have some promising young strikers and also signed the experienced Darius Henderson to replace him, Henderson is a former Royal and always plays well against them, scoring twice for Sheffield United last season against his first league club.With Reading having lost commanding central defender Matt Mills and experienced replacement Ivar Ingimarsson, they might struggle to contain the big front man and this is a match which looks likely to produce goal scoring chances aplenty once again. "

Over" 2.5 goals 2.04 + asian line.

Other two games are in Division 2. Let's start with Bradford City - Aldershot Town, which will not surprise too many of you. I wrote this about Shots in pre season ....

It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.
This was very clear at the weekend when they travelled to Farnborough Town, one of the better BSS teams last season who narrowly missed out on promotion and could easily have swapped places with Tamworth. Shots got better and better as the game progressed and ran out 4-0 winners, with newcomers Michael Rankine and especially Bradley Bubb who is lightning quick and scored 40 goals in 88 starts in the BSS impressing. The difference between how these two clubs have started their preseason is further highlighted by the fact that one of the Tamworth players missed the first week of training as he was still on holiday ! Holdsworth would never have stood for that. hard to see anything other than another away win, with Shots fitness advantage surely telling after the break if not before.

Holdsworth has got his team primed for the campaign , they completed a very productive pre season and travel north in great heart. He added two players to the squad last week with the addition of Anthony Pulis and George Montgomery, both of whom will help bring along the youngsters/ less experienced players at the club. Montgomery was part of the Dagenham & Redbridge promotion winning side of two seasons ago and his silky left foot will be a welcome addition.

City are a sleeping giant at this level, but are set to slumber a little longer, with Peter Jackson having a very big job to turn them around. He has started the process, by bringing whole host of new players in, but almost none have experience of this division, this is a work in progress and City a team in transition. Aldershot +0.25 1.90 is my pick.

Going to finish with some brief notes about Southend United- Hereford United. Paul Sturrock inherited a shocking position at Roots Hall last season, a financial mess and no players ! He signed 17 players inside 24 hours as the season started and his team progressed and evolved through the year, thumped a few good teams, finished mid table and even looked like they might challenge for the playoffs at one stage. There is a terrific team spirit here and Sturrock has enjoyed a far less frantic build up to this season, he has kept Barry Corr with 18 goals in 32 games and added the prolific Neil Harris from Millwall , Jemal Johnson and also Liam Dickinson who scored plenty at this level for Stockport County, before never quite making it at the higher level, he is very pacey and that can serve you well at this level. They are potentially a team with a lot of goals in them, they have yet to click goals wise in pre season, but did play some quality sides and defensively looked really solid, only conceding one in two games against big Championship player Ipswich Town and EPL side Norwich.

Hereford look set to struggle this year, they are going to have to get involved in the loan market, which is their modus operandi and having ended last season poorly, jwith ust two wins in 13 and lacking quality, I have to look to oppose them. They were very good on the road last season, but lost 4-0 here and 3-1 to United in the reverse fixture and it is hard to argue that Southend are now stronger and the Bulls weaker.

Southend -0.5 1.83 + ... there is a little 1.91 in places.

Good Luck.

Written August 3
Going to start my look at the weekend matches by posting a selection for the Brentford- Yeovil Town game. Obviously I have well and truly shown my hand here and we have already taken the up to 34.0 to win Division 1 about the Bees ( now a top 17.0) and especially the 9.0 for promotion ( now circa 5.0), so you know which way I am going with this, but I don't expect this quote to be available come the weekend and suggest we get on now.

Let's start with the visitors, they have a small squad and I know that boss Terry Skiverton is anxious to add 2-3 more names as soon as possible. Town have had a reasonable pre season, but have been over run a little in midfield at times and have a weakness in central defence. I saw the match at Griffin Park between these two in the second half of last season, Town won 2-1, but the Glovers were fortunate to leave London without being arrested for daylight robbery, somehow contriving a way ( two goals on two breakaways) to win a match the Bees dominated.
You all know how I feel about Brentford this season and there is no point in my repeating everything again, but Uwe Rosler has assembled/inherited a very strong squad and the tactically aware German can ( potentially) change 6-7 players without really weakening the starting eleven.

Off the pitch the club is now run in an ultra professional manner, more along the lines of a top Championship club, with a lot of investment in getting things right both on and off the pitch. A large crowd ( by normal standards) is expected on saturday and is likely to be boosted by a number of Manchester City supporters. Rosler was a hero in his time with City and with them in town for the Charity Shield game with United, he has called for those fans in the capital for the weekend to come along. The Bees have sold their most season tickets in many years and drawn record crowds to G.P for pre season games, something big is happening in TW8 and Rosler, his backroom staff, team and even supporters are all fully focused on getting the juggernaut up and running.

They have a real touch of class in midfield and should again dominate Yeovil in the centre of the park, up front established strikers MacDonald and Alexander have been scoring for fun in pre season, but only one will start with Clayton Donaldson ( 28 goals for Crewe last season) booked for one of the starting places and if that will not keep the front men on their toes, another quality striker is set to join shortly. The defence has looked roack solid and only conceded one goal from open play and kept clean sheets against EPL side Stoke city ( full strength) and Championship playoff hopefuls Watford.

They ended pre season at an inform and fit Alderhot Town last week and dominated early proceedings, they then fell behind for the first time under Rosler and that is what I wanted to see,how they would react after such a magic start to the season where everything has gone perfectly, there was no panic and to be honest the Bees ran out very easy winners, the 2-1 scoreline doesn't tell the full story, it was very impressive. No weaknesses for the hosts and the only negative is that Town have been a bit of a bogey team for the Bees in recent seasons, but hey, this is a very different Brentford team.

1.5 units Brentford -0.5 1.89..... aargh !! This has shortened to 1.83 as I type, so will have to downscale this slightly 1.25 units .... very annoying !.

FINALLY, THE PENNY DROPS !

Into August and long after my readers had taken the cream of the odds, the public gamble starts, with the Racing Post tipping them at 20-1, when only 16-1 was really available on August 3rd.

Win or lose, the early odds for Brentford were plainly wrong and held great value and that, as we all know is the name of the game.

I did write a few further notes about the Bees in August, but I want to keep some of those to readers of my daily notes for the time being. However, as an update, 20 yo attacking midfielder Harry Forrester, who has been on trial at Ajax recently and was offered a contract by the Amsterdam giants, turned them down and signed for the Bees ! I am sure there were many other considerations, but for a player to opt for the Bees over mighty Ajax is a sure sign of how far Brentford have come and are going. If not this season, then in the near future.

I have only put up three outright/long term "official" bets in 2011, Uruguay to win the Copa America @ 9.0 and suggested a top up @ 13.5. Brentford and another, albeit much smaller stakes, at a very nice 40-1 in the Championship yesterday.

July was one of my best ever months and I know that, if there is any justice in this world, this is going to be a record breaking season, as I have worked like a dog over the last two months preparing for today and the coming months !

Good Luck.
Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

THROUGH PRE SEASON .....

Written July 19th :Btw, Brentford our long term selection for Division 1 scored ten goals in their first pres season friendly at the weekend, opposition was weak of course, but the two teams had drawn 0-0 in this traditional warm up game last season and the Bees used two teams of eleven, playing 45 minutes each and both won 5-0, so a LOT of positives to take from the match.

Written July 20th :Brentford also played last night and won 6-1, it was another non league opponent, but the Bees rested their top goalscorer and several others, actually, the two strikers who scored seven between them at the weekend didn't play, so another impressive display, 16 goals in two games, albeit against low level opposition is about as good as it gets and these are not low, low level clubs, both play in what is effectively the sixth tier of english football. They are both regular pre season opponents for the Bees and games are traditionally close, these kind of routs have never happened before........... I hope you have all taken at least a little of the big outright and promotion odds.

July 22nd :Brentford get their first real test of pre season tonight when the take on Stoke City at Griffin Park, this will home boss Uwe Rosler's first home game and of course, with EPL visitors in town, the Bees will do them the courtesy of putting out a very strong team. The visitors also have a match at Aldershot tomorrow so will doubtless be giving everyone a run out, including new signing Jonathan Woodgate, over the two matches. No asian line yet, but with Stoke playing two games and the Bees on fire and eager to please their new boss and he the fans, there is some value in the quotes of 5.0 for Brentford to win Bet 365 and/ or the handicap odds when available.

July 23rd :However, Brentford scored a fully deserved 1-0 win over EPL side Stoke City . The visitors fielded their strongest possible side with nine starters and only made three substitutions the whole game, despite which they were second best all match to the Bees who really put in a very impressive performance. Hopefully some of you took a little of the 5.0 for last night and if anyone is not on the outright bet(s), then it really is last chance to do so, these are going to collapse this week.

July 27th :Brentford host Watford tonight and this will be another solid test for the Bees against something of a local rival. It is hard to overestimate the feeling of well, guess it is pure excitement at Griffin Park at present, the match with Stoke attracted the biggest pre season crowd for over 20 years and the team passed a full strength EPL side off the pitch, sales in the club "superstore" which is basically a largish shop were through the roof, with supporters happy to snatch up all the new merchandise available. Brentford are looking to keep all this momentum and good will going, but it how they handle the first set back which will tell us so much more about them. No asian lines yet, but 2.375 in a place ( William Hill) is borderline acceptable about the Bees, Watford have alreday lost in pre season to Barnet and AFC Wimbledon despite fielding strong teams against each, the Hornets have a lot of pace and will be a real test for Brentford, but it is hard to oppose the Bees at present, especially if there are some decent -0.25 ball quotes around later.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

INTO JULY AND THERE WAS NO LET UP FROM ME ....

Written July 11th : I will take this opportunity to re-update the situation at Brentford, all of my original comments about the Bees are reproduced at the foot of the page. Since writing the last of those, Uwe Rosler has supplemented his squad further with two more fantastic looking signings, adding Clayton Donaldson and Niall McGinn to a group of players that compares favourably with any at this level. Donaldson was the top scorer in League 2 last season, scoring 28 goals for Crewe Alexandra, Alex paid a six figure fee for him three years ago and after impressing everyone last season, that value was unlikely to have gone down, but he refused to sign a new contract and he has chosen Brentford over a host of clubs looking to sign the proven lower level goalscorer. McGinn has signed on a season long loan from Celtic, the 23 yo winger is a full Northern Ireland international and won two young POTY awards with Derry in the IPL, it is doubtful the talented winger would have been allowed to move away from Celtic Park, but he was the player who also had "suspicious packages" sent to him along with Hoops boss Neil Lennon and that, quite understandably, affected his game in the second half of last season. A year South of the Border will suit him perfectly and this is another real coup for the Bees.

Rosler has also found his first team coach in Peter Farrell, who has worked for a number of years with the youth/reserve team squads at Bolton Wanderers where he helped the development of many now established EPL players. There have been a number of other important and very promising appointments made, including a well thought of youth team manager and a General Manager, who has worked at much bigger clubs in the past. Gunnar Halle attended the afternoon coaching session in Lillestrom on Sunday, not sure if this means anything or if he just popped into say hello. But I do know the Bees have been working incredibly hard in early pre season and all players returned from the off season in good shape.

This is probably the most optimistic Brentford fans have felt going into a new season in at least two decades . The 33-1 quote to win the division has gone, but 25-1 is still offered in a place or two and the 8-1 for promotion, which I am very keen on, remains, but for how long ? Once the word gets out and people fully analyse the business down at Griffin Park, I am sure that these quotes will drop considerably.

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

THROUGH THE MONTH OF JUNE .....

(Written 24/06)

Brentford and new coach Uwe Rosler made their first signing of the off season yesterday, but I am going to hold off on my update a little longer, as I understand there will be some more signings shortly and the German boss has still to formally finalise his backroom team. All I will say is that it is clear that Rosler has done his homework already, as the signing Shaleum Logan, who was a product of the Manchester City youth academy, plays in what has long been a problem position for the Bees and it bodes well for the future.

( Written 30/06)
Just a brief update. Rosler has added two more players to his squad, with the addition of experienced german central defender Marcel Eger from St Pauli and the very talented Jonathan Douglas from Swindon. Eger is a very big unit who has clearly been brought in to marshall the defence, Douglas is very talented and was chased by a host of clubs, it says much about the ambition at the club that he choose the Bees. He has three very successful years at Leeds before joining Swindon, where he was POTY in the team that almost made it to the Championship two years ago. He would still have been at United but player and club fell out over money, quite how he has agreed terms with Brentford is a mystery, but this is a terrific signing.

As I indicated in my original post, Brentford are also looking to set up a semi formal loan arrangement with City, this makes a lot of sense as City have srapped their reserve team to focus on the Nextgen series, so many of their youngsters will have limited opportunities of competitive football. Early signs under Rosler look very good, the team have started pre season now and are looking to get fitness levels sky high, the squad are shortly moving to a summer training camp in Norway where Rosler knows the facilities well.... looking good atm.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

BEGGING AND PLEADING .....

I have been basically begging anyone reading my daily notes to back Brentford in League 1 right through pre season. My first notes were written on June 10th, that is eight long weeks ago, when I wrote ......

LEAGUE 1 ( written 10/06)



I did not plan to send another email today, but have been thinking about this all morning and I think events over the weekend/ next week will cause these odds to drop and strongly feel we should get on now.

Most of you know that I am a lifelong Brentford supporter, but I do not often bet on their games and am just as likely to oppose them as back them, just wanted to make that clear.

The Bees are currently in a strange position, in a sort of joint ownership between the supporters and Matthew Benham, with MB set to take over sole ownership after a five year term, however, forget about that, Benham is the man making the decisions and funding the club. He has his own men on the board and in executive positions and has invested heavily in the club both on and off the pitch . Brentford have very ambitious Academy plans and the club are being run in an ultra professional manner, looking to secure a long term future at Championship level and maybe beyond.

For those that do not know, Benham is the owner of Smartodds and is probably the biggest european gambler in asian markets, betting in astronomical sums, I also believe he might be a shareholder at Samvo, but that is just speculation on my part, he might not be wealthy in the Roman Abramovich sense, but in non EPL terms is up there in the rich list and already has some £5-10m of investment of some kind in the club, he is also said to be a long time ( 20 years +) supporter of the Bees. It is also worthy of note that he or his company do not bet on any Brentford matches.

Anyway, since getting involved the playing budget has increased some three fold, Brentford have got promotion from League 2, finished 9th at the higher level in 2010 and 11th this season, it is a sign of how far they have come in a couple of seasons that many supporters and we are certainly not used to success, were disappointed by a midtable finish and Wembley appearance in the JPT.

Benham and his team have taken a couple of months to find a new coach and Uwe Rosler will be announced today, the 42 year old german spent four seasons at Manchester city where he enjoyed cult status and has coached three teams in Norway. He is another wildly ambitious individual and is looking to make his mark in England, he will bring his own team with him including it is said Gunnar Halle. The pair know the english game well and are said to have really impressed at interview, giving detailed analysis of where the team were weak and their proposals to upgrade the squad, these were said to be very specific and not general thoughts. I also believe they fit the criteria to be able to make use of the data that Smartodds will surely make available.

Rosler is still loved at Manchester City and whilst the ownership there has changed, he still regularly attends games and functions, keeps a home in the area and has strong contacts at the club, there is a good chance that a few fringe players will be loaned to the London club. Brentford have a good reputation for looking after youngsters and have enjoyed similar relationships with other clubs, especially Leicester and Ipswich in recent seasons, so this would make a lot of sense and be beneficial to both.

Brentford do not need to improve a lot to get involved in the promotion race and whilst there are a lot of big name clubs in the division this year, including both Sheffield teams, there is no way that the Bees should be as high as 33-1 to win this, they have far more potential and ambition than half a dozen teams shorter in the betting and I simply do not see them outside the top eight. Big value on the outright and promotion odds and once plans have been laid out and culling and addition of players begins, I expect these to drop considerably.

1 unit Brentford to win 26.0 + ... up to 34.0 available.

2 units Brentford to gain promotion 9.0

That was two months ago and I will give a timeline of my related updated notes since then....



Good Luck.



Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com



Btw, I LOVE this photograph of Rosler and Peter Gilham ( Mr Brentford) or the "Glums" as they look here. It is funny because in anything Bees related Gilham is about as upbeat as it is possible to be.......... this was probably the first time the pair had met ..... take my word, it is FUNNY !!

FRIDAY ....

Football is a very fickle game and things can change in the blink of an eye. Take Bolton Wanderers, pre season had gone very well, boss Owen Coyle had got several summer targets into the club and managed to fend off the bigger clubs who were targeting Gary Cahill.

Then, in a minor friendly at Newport County last weekend, midfield livewire Lee Chung-yong suffered what is basically a season ending broken leg and five days later one of those new singings, defender Tyrone Mears did likewise in a training incident. Liverpool have now also apparently upped the ante in their hunt for Cahill and suddenly things look very different at the Reebok Stadium.

I am sure that Coyle is not panicking just yet, but am equally sure that despite his team playing their final warm up game and first home start of pre season tonight, when La Liga side Levante come to the North West, that he will be urging caution and mindful that as we all know, these things come in three's !!

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY ......

Sunderland were my "strong" 1.5 point selection yesterday, given at top quote, they were well backed and won comfortably 3-1, landing my first red type bet of the new month.

I sent about a third of you in my data base those notes, which also included some spot on news about a couple of other friendly games and a very strong bet for today.

This morning I shared my daily notes with another third of my contacts and they got a friendly selection for tonight, some Champions League notes and my first bet for the weekend.

Tomorrow, I plan to cover a couple of Europa League matches, probably another weekend selection and a 40-1 outright bet for the new season that is wildly overpriced IMO. With regard to the blog, it is very difficult to openly post something at this stage of the season, as the teams I am backing are ones I will be following through the opening weeks of the campaign and I would be foolish to show my hand on here. Having said that, I think I can publish a couple of the lower profile previews and will probably post one or two over the weekend, so please check back then.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TUESDAY .... THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM ...

Quite an odd Tuesday, which is usually the busiest day of the midweek betting wise, but that is not really the case today. However, I have found one strong ( 1.5 unit) selection for today, which has already fallen 20 "clicks" and put up a double stake selection at odds against for tomorrow, where we also have the best of the early exchanges, so there is little to complain about.

Actually, I also passed on some early team news from a couple of low level friendlies, but all in all it remains a case of the quiet before the storm, with the english domestic campaign set to resume on Friday evening. I hope that you have all been doing plenty of homework and are well prepared, I have watched seven pre season matches, along with eight training sessions and have worked solidly for 5-6 weeks just to get ready for this. I cannot remember being this excited about a new season for many years and like a kid at Christmas, I would be happy to fast forward to saturday morning.

The weather is set to break before the weekend, but some teams, especially in the London area will have completed the bulk of their training this week in gruelling conditions. It is 30 degrees plus today and also very humid and similar is forecast for tomorrow. As always, we will see some extremely tired legs on opening day.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

UPDATE .....

Alfreton Town showed a little mercy after the break and "only" won 14-0 !

Below is an update to my freebie email of saturday ....

Manchester United 2.20, Celtic 2.03 and Brendan de Jonge up to 5.60 provided a perfect three from three over the weekend.

In July I have given 38 official ( red type) selections, so, an average of just under 8.75 per week. Three have resulted in a "push" ( stakes returned) , with 14 losers and 21 winners, a total of 50 units were invested and returns were 79.92 units, that is a terrific ROI of 159.84 %, biggest winner was 8.0 and we also " hit the woodwork" with another @ 8.50. There were four "maximum bets" given and three won at odds of 8.0, 3.10 and 2.25 !!!

A 100 euro flat stake per unit for the period, on all red type selections would have made a profit of 2,992 euros and I think the maximum stake ever tied up at any one time was 4.5 units.

However, as I always tell anyone who will listen, the newsletter and my previews are about far more than just basic results and there should always be plenty of winners "hidden" away amongst the content, so I would urge any of you that get the opportunity to read it fully each day.

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

WHAT'S THE POINT ?

I just do not see the point of clubs sending out a team to be slaughtered, what good does that do ? If you are not going to at least try to win the game, or at least keep it competitive, then don't bother playing !

A Sheffield Wednesday XI went to play non league Alfreton Twon this afternoon, they sent a young group of players, but were they also playing blindfolded ( ?), as they are 9-0 down at half time !

The first team played at home to Stoke City yesterday, but surely Gary Megson could have mixed an Academy side up with a few experienced hands this afternoon ! This shows scant respect for opponent, the youngsters ( what good is another almighty thumping going to do for them confidence wise) and most of all, the long suffering supporters.

I have a lot of time for Owls fans, they are a big club that have had a very tough time of things, tehy should be in the EPL not League 1, but they always travel in huge numbers to games and I can guarantee that "XI" or not, a couple of hundred have turned up today and for what ? To see their side humiliated !

I don't doubt that they are taking it in good heart by now and are probably cheering each goal as loudly as the home fans, but I would be seething if my team did that and the very least you can expect as a supporter, is that your team puts out a side that can compete. Apart from providing ammunition for Sheffield United fans and those of every other Yorkshire club, what was the point of today's exercise ?

I voiced my concerns about Megson last season and he needs a very solid start to this season IMO to still be in work at Christmas.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

I only had one "official"selection yesterday, Manchester United off level ball at circa 2.20 to beat Barcelona, the best club side in the world, which I made a strong ( 1.5 unit) pick. That was not posted on the blog, but I did send it out to everyone in my active data base and I hope that some of you got on.

The match in Washington was played in front of a 81,000 + crowd and despite both fielding much changed teams from the two which did battle in the Champions League final just two months ago. It was a good match and very well received in a massive, still largely untapped football market, where "soccer" is gaining in popularity on a daily basis.

United won 2-1 and despite it being a meaningless fixture, Sir Alex had to win this one, if he could not win when all the advatages were with his team and Barcelona were basically fielding a B team, when would it ever happen ? I think he was well aware of the psychological effect that could have had, after all, no one likes playing mind games more than Fergie and that is why he also rested one or two stars..... always nice to have an excuse ready and waiting. Having said all that, I have no doubt that both he and his squad really wanted this one and United enter the new season in buoyant mood.

I watched a pre season game between Aldershot Town and my beloved Brentford, these are two teams about whom I have already "shown my hand", as all of you who took part in the seven day trial should be aware and everything I said about both still stands, even more so after what I saw yesterday ! I might go into more detail later in the week.

The new UK domestic season gets underway next weekend , I can hardly wait and am already planning three maximum stake selections for the next seven days, having only had three in the last month, all of which won, so fingers crossed !

The World Cup qualifying draw took place in Rio yesterday, with Ronaldo ( the original) shoe horned into his suit and picking the top teams. Incredibly this only took $30m to stage and they accuse frugal FIFA of wasting money ! I do not think that Joe Public realises how difficult it is to pick small balls out of a large bowl and FIFA deserve credit for being able to do it at such low cost ! Well done Sepp !

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ..... THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE ....

Ligue 2 restarts in France today and don't expect a flood of goals, defences traditionally rule the roost in this low scoring league and that has especially been the case through the opening rounds, with Round 1 games through the last two seasons averaging 1.90 goals and over the last four campaigns, exactly 2.0 per match.

Having said that, I am keen on Stade Laval tonight who host traditionally slow starters Clermont. Some of these teams over train pre season and this leaves them a little "leggy" early season, before they get the benefit and finish strongly, Guingamp back in the second flight after a one year hiatus in National, were very much in this camp and always "tend to fall out of the blocks", even in the third tier they only won one of their opening four starts, scoring just a solitary goal, it will be interesting to see how they perform in the next month or so, but I am getting distracted.

Clermont have won just one in 12 of their opening six matches in the last two seasons and having had a massive shake up in personnel over the summer, it is almost impossible to see them coming out all guns blazing in the opening weeks of this campaign. A huge loss is 20 goal marksman Sloan Privat who has returned to Sochaux, they have also lost their goal keeper, two defenders and three midfielders from the squad that eventually finished seventh last season and two more to injury today. This is also quite a long trip to a venue they have not had any recent success at and they made the five/six hour road trip by bus yesterday afternoon, which is something they will not have done for several months.

Hosts are a very strong home side, 9-9-1 last season, with the sole loss coming in a meaningless last day fixture, they have lost six of their last 56 starts in the last three seasons with four of those coming once the club had achieved their objective for the season, so very impressive. A lack of goals cost them last season, only Boulogne and Troyes of the teams that survived scored fewer, but they have tried very hard to address the problem signing four strikers in the summer and the club are quite pleased the way pre season has gone, despite results not quite backing that up, but at the end of the day, the season starts here. They have won their home opener in each of the last three seasons and I expect them to register a fourth today.

Laval -0.25 2.09 asian line..... this was written at 09.38 ... now trading @1.89

Good Luck

CONTACT: stencelwade@btinternet.com

THE MEANING OF VALUE AND THE VALUE OF FRIENDLIES .....

This morning I sent out a late supplement to my daily notes, it was written in haste and briefly, because I knew the odds would tumble.

It read a lot like this ....

Update:This is interesting ...........

West Brom play both tonight at Rochdale and tomorrow at Southampton.

The match at Saints was originally put up as a WBA XI, but I think that has changed. However, it is the match at Rochdale which is of more interest.

Albion have named just a 16 man squad, so will not be rotating much at all.

Only Bednar and Reid can be considered first team players, of the other 14, only three are in their 20's and only just ( one over 21).

The other 11 are 19 ( years of age)or younger and eight played in the last U18 match of last season, so this is very much a youth/reserve squad, I can find no record of seven of them really even appearing in the B team, certainly not on even a semi regular basis, but I was in a hurry.

There is some very promising talent there, but that is what it is, promising , with little real experience.

This is Dale's penultimate friendly, so we should see pretty much their starting League 1 line up and at 4.50 for the home win....... with Boyle, Chandlers, Bwin, Unibet, Hills and similar quotes elsewhere, I have to suggest a small bet at such big odds and again, the opening asian quotes should be interesting, Unibet actually have 3.40 draw no bet, which looks very solid.

This was sent out at 08.59 this morning. Not a huge amount of content, but you get the message . The asian line opened at circa 2.0 +0.5 ball and was down to 1.69 by kick off. The 4.50 disappeared within an hour or so, but there was time to get on at prices that were clearly wrong.

Rochdale lead at half time 2-0, I am not tempting fate by writing this as the result hardly matters ( OK maybe a little), it was a fantastic price and offered true value. If we can bet regularly like this, then the results will always follow.

It also illustrates what a fantastic betting medium these friendly games are....... having said all that , I hope they win !

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TUESDAY ..... URGENT

PLEASE CHECK YOUR INBOX ..... I have just sent an update with news of a 4.50 chance for tonight who should probably be sub 3.0, maybe even shorter !

Good Luck.

MONDAY ....

Thirteen days ago I sent out the email reproduced in the post below, it was quite detailed, ran to some 2,300 + words and in it I discussed three football friendlies, the Copa America and a stage of the Tour de France.

If you have a spare five minutes take a quick look and read, or re-read it.

All three football teams won, all scored three goals, in addition each of those match previews gave you some other information that has already led to other potential winners.

The cyclist discussed was just touched off on the line. Uruguay won the Copa America last night and you could have secured a huge profit even before the final was played, with opponent Paraguay trading at 3.15 + on the exchanges.

Those notes were good, very good, probably the best you will read anywhere and all of you who asked, got them for free.

I write stuff like that everyday, there are plenty of losers too, but over time the result is always the same. Five years on the blog and a massive profit every single year LINK, but my notes are different, they are much better, they are my notes, my personal thoughts and selections, all of them even my "in running" selections. Everyone of you were given the opportunity to receive them at cost, for about the price of a daily newspaper and without the hacking !

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SENT TO EVERYONE WHO ASKED .... TUESDAY JULY 12TH

TUESDAY JULY 12TH

There are three english domestic friendlies that I would like to discuss today. Going to start with the match between non league Tamworth and League 2 Aldershot Town. The hosts only managed to avoid relegation on the last day of the season and look set for another season of strife in the Conference National. Money is very tight at the Lamb Ground and a few days ago only ten players had signed contracts for the coming season, with a number of trialists taking part in two matches against very low opposition at the weekend, looking to secure deals. Others have refused deals for the semi professional club, whom it was said have offered the same ,or similar money to the squad for the fourth year running, despite asking them for greater commitment in regard to extra training sessions and therefore expense to players, who in some cases were driving an hour or more to attend sessions.

It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.

This was very clear at the weekend when they travelled to Farnborough Town, one of the better BSS teams last season who narrowly missed out on promotion and could easily have swapped places with Tamworth. Shots got better and better as the game progressed and ran out 4-0 winners, with newcomers Michael Rankine and especially Bradley Bubb who is lightning quick and scored 40 goals in 88 starts in the BSS impressing. The difference between how these two clubs have started their preseason is further highlighted by the fact that one of the Tamworth players missed the first week of training as he was still on holiday ! Holdsworth would never have stood for that. hard to see anything other than another away win, with Shots fitness advantage surely telling after the break if not before.

No asian odds for this game yet, I have seen 1.91 for Aldershot in a place and other companies are sure to quote later in the morning, at 1.85 + I make them a 1.5 unit selection.

All league meeting at Gigg Lane, where newly promoted Bury, under new coach Richie Barker, entertain Championship Burnley. The visitors took all of the first team squad aside from Charlie Austin to Altrincham on saturday and played two seperate starting elevens in each half. The first group did best, going in 3-0 ahead, with the second eleven easing home 4-2. All four strikers scored in Eagles, Paterson, MacDonald and Iwelumo, which students of the Championship will appreciate is a decent number of attractive options and that is without Austin, who is hungry to get back on track after missing much of last season with injury, following his big money transfer to the Clarets. He will almost certainly start tonight and having seen his fellow strike partners/rivals all score at the weekend, will be eager to follow suit. Boss Eddie Howe still has the basis of the squad which made it into the EPL , but is close to adding a couple of players this week. I know less about Howe in pre season, but as a club, Burnley have traditionally taken these warm up games quite seriously in recent seasons and will be keen to build on the good work shown at Altrincham. Bury will be fielding a couple of trialists, four new comers and possible a youth team player or two, so hard to see how they will have too much cohesion and I have to favour the away side.

One unit Burnley -0.5 ball 2.04 + asia..... there is some 2.10 with William Hill.

Braintree Town of Essex take on Leyton Orient and this is another match with plenty of interest, both on and off the field. The hosts won the BSS last season, but had hardly finished celebrating before coach Rod Stringer had walked out in a row over money ( of course). The club is run on very tight financial lines and Stringer felt that he and the players did not get what was due and possibly promised. Almost the whole squad was out of contract, but 12 have since resigned and new coach Alan Devonshire has added a couple of his own men, any oldies reading this might remember him from his West ham days, back then he was an elegant, slim, long haired talented footballer with a moustache ( very early 80's), now he is fat and bald, but I wouldn't tell him that !

Numbers are still light at Town and needing to find £175,000 to complete ground improvements to stay in the league, the squad budget has had to suffer. Given that and with Devonshire needing time to get to know the majority of his squad and having returned to training a couple of days after Orient, they are bound to be a little rusty and behind the League 1 team in preparation.

The O's had a terrific second half of the campaign and almost forced their way into the playoffs, eventually finishing seventh. Boss Russell Slade should and will make sure he takes plenty of credit for that and Championship club Barnsley tried to speak to him about their vacant managers position, but Orient chairman Barry Hearn refused, which did not go down well with Slade at all. I assume that all is forgiven and we are two months down the line now in any case, Slade has been given money and added to his squad with Leon McSweeney ( Hartlepool), Scott Cuthbert ( Swindon) and Jamie Cureton ( Exeter City) all of whom are proven performers at League 1 level. Cureton is a little long in the tooth and will be 36 next month, but scored 20 goals last season ( he has always been prolific at Championship level and below) , included 17 in just 34 league outings, a fantastic return. He will be a great addition to the squad and this all looks very solid business. Orient passed teams to death on occasion in the second half of last season and should have too much for what is sure to be a disjointed home side.

Only Bet365 have quoted this so far and Orient are priced terribly short at 1.40 which is useless. Maybe there will be a handicap line later, if not, at least we have some early notes on these two to take into the new season .

COPA AMERICA
Chile -Peru
Uruguay- Mexico

Tonight sees the final games in Group C and all is still to play for, even pointless Mexico can still ensure qualification with a win. Winner of the Chile-Peru game will top the group, a draw would leave the door open for Uruguay to claim that spot. The situation is further complicated because the team that finishes second in the group will travel to Santa Fe to play Argentina in the quarters , but you could win the group and get Brazil, so it is a case of be careful what you wish for !

Forget what you might read elsewhere, Chile and Peru have already qualified for the next stage, they are just playing for position in the draw and Uruguay no longer need to win, a point will ensure they finish as one of the top two third placed teams.

I am not really too interested in the first game, Chile have looked the stronger of the two sides and will again have massive support in Mendoza. Peru remain without Pizzaro and Farfan and the betting line in asia has moved almost a full quarter ball in favour of the chileans in the last 24 hours and that looks very much on the skinny side, but there are just too many imponderables here. By the time the second match starts, Uruguay who are very talented and still capable of winning this tournament will have far better idea of what is required and whom they are likely to face, they will be suited by playing a mexican team that will attack them and should win with a degree of comfort. Mexico are another nation that gave priority to the Gold Cup and have arrived here with a B squad minus all their stars. It is very much Uruguay's policy to start this tournament slowly, yet they have still made the semi finals at least in eight of the last eleven Copa's.

They have goals in them, three strikers Suarez, Forlan and Abreu have 73 international goals between them, that is double anything the Brazilian forwards have managed and some twenty more than the impressive array of attacking talent that Argentina boast have posted . In addition, keeping these three on their toes and pushing for starts are Abel Hernandez and Edinson Cavani, two young strikers of almost unlimited potential who have thrilled Serie A viewers in the last couple of seasons. Cavani 's goals helped fire Napoli into the Champions League this season and Hernandez has thrived at Palermo since Cavani departed and at just 20 yo, he might have an even greater future. These five give Uruguay the best pure striking options of any nation in the competition and the five are fairly interchangable.They have a solid experienced defence and a talented midfield where six of the players helped their european clubs book Champions League spots next season.

Cavani and Caceres are out tonight, so we should get a first chance to see Abel Hernandez take his place in the starting line up, he should be nice and hungry after warming the bench for much of the two opening games.

The odds for them to win tonight are too short, but I still feel their quotes to win the competition are the best value on offer and have to suggest you take a little of the 13.5 offered on Betfair, this could look big for the World Cup semi finalists by the time we know the quarter final line up.

Tour de France: Stage 10 Aurillac-Carmaux

The rest day will have been well received after two medium mountain stages and was perfectly timed as temperatures soared into the mid 30's on Monday, but cloud cover today should see a maximum of 28 degrees. The peloton will have to work hard to keep potential breakaways in check, but chances for the sprinters are going to be limited after tomorrow and the main players are going to put all their effort into the next two days, as the tour heads towards the Pyrenees. Today sees a fairly short (158km) rolling stage, but one lacking any real difficulty, there are plenty of chances for riders to try breakaways, but the finish is gently downhill and if the pack stay vigilant, then we could have a bunch finish. You know my thinking by now, if we do have a bunch finish, then Mark Cavendish wins, if his team deliver him perfectly he wins, if things go wrong but he has a chance however small with 300 metres to go .... he wins, if someone tries to put him over the barrier but doesn't complete the job .... he wins.

MC has a perfect record in "flat" stages following a rest day and an 18th tour stage for him is on the cards today and/or tomorrow, but the bonus sprint is very early in the race today and that is a bit of a concern. I have just seen 3.50 put up by Bet 365, if only we knew it was going to come down to a sprint ! If we are 50/50 to get a sprint finish, then 1.75 ( 1.75 X 2.0) for Cav is too big, so I am assuming the odds makers feel it is a shade of odds on for a breakaway to factor in their profit margin. I also know that several tour readers believe that even if we see a sprint, that the slight downhill finish might suit one of the more veteran sprinters. Similar claims have been made previously, in particular in 2009 when it was slightly down and then uphill in Saint-Fargeau, I do not think that it is big enough to make a difference and at the business end 300-500 metres out ,it is minimal. If it comes down to a sprint I want to be on Cavendish, when he is sub 1.40 in my book.

This is a very interesting day and one I will probably just watch, but if it looks to be coming together after the cat 4 climb 15km from the finish, anything above 1.60 offers value in my book. If you feel a breakaway is unlikely to succeed, then get on this morning as I can now see 3.80 in a place.

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

URGENT, URGENT , URGENT.....

Regulars please check your inbox asap, I have just sent information about a 39-1 shot with a very solid chance and these odds will not last long !

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SUNDAY ....

We had to wait a little but finally the Copa game went "over" and eventually five goals were scored.

I am heading for a huge week , having also put Uruguay up as a maximum bet outright on July 4th at big odds and then also "suggested" them to all who took part in the trial at a massive 13.5 on July 12th. With Paraguay easy to back at 3.15 on the exchanges today, that is money in the bank.

That is the big "sweat" today of course, but I have also found two other solid selections, one at circa even money and the other at a juicy 8.50.

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

EXTRACT FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

Brentford scored a fully deserved 1-0 win over EPL side Stoke City last night . The visitors fielded their strongest possible side with nine starters and only made three substitutions the whole game, despite which they were second best all match to the Bees who really put in a very impressive performance. Hopefully some of you took a little of the 5.0 for the win and xxxxxxxxxxxx

The Copa America is coming towards the business end and tonight sees the 3rd and 4th place playoff match between Peru and Venezuela. Very much like in the World Cup, these games are when teams usually throw caution to the wind and go for it, obviously it is their last chance to impress and at the end of the day, few teams go around proudly boasting that they were third and you will forever be known as semi finalists, regardless of the result in this "warm up" for the final. Last four Copa's have seen all of these games go "over" and I feel that this will follow suit, Venezuela are very attack minded in any case, created plenty of chances against defensive Paraguay in the semis and only the woodwork stopped them going all the way. They looked much livelier when Miku came onto the pitch and the Getafe striker wiull surely start toninght. Peru will be without the suspended Juan Vargas and have not scored too many this tournament so far, but they are not the only culprit of that and they are likely to be sucked into the more friendly and lower key style of game and open approach of their opponent. "over" 2.5 goals at a nice looking 2.12 is a solid bet.

West Ham United make the trip across London to play Wycombe Wanderers this afternoon and are bringing a very strong squad, the same as the one which won 1-0 at FC Kopenhagen in midweek, plus Pablo Barrera and Carlton Cole, who can both expect a run out. These will mean plenty of Hammers fans will be making the trip and noise at the tiny stadium. Sam Allardyce is xxxxxxxxxx

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

FOUR MONTHS LATER ......

This week the charges against my daughter who was arrested for peacefully protesting inside Fortnum and Mason department store earlier this year were finally dropped ,after this debacle was allowed to drag on for four long months !

I wrote about the incident at the time LINK1 LINK2 LINK3 this was a big miscarriage of justice and a complete and utter waste of public money. Legal fees and other costs for these cases run into millions of pounds, probably tens of millions.

This government ( when it suits them) has spoken in support of protesters in other countries especially Egypt and Libya ,whilst refusing their own citizens the same democratic right and using tactics, kettling, arrest without charge and deception LINK, which would be vehemently criticised elsewhere, this is at best two faced and at worst criminal.

The "protesters" had an enormous amount of support including from a number of Labour MP's, like John McDonnell who was very active, certainly not from my local representative and Home Secretary Teresa May who made some ridiculous, unfounded, ill advised comments and should be ashamed of herself. I only hope that she comes campaigning to my front door during the next election !

However, there are still 30 cases being pursued and whilst I have no personal knowledge of these, I do know that no offences took place inside the store and all were arrested as they left.

For the CPS to continue this farce makes no sense at all in the face of so much evidence in support of the protesters and I hope that these prosecutions will also be dropped.

I love my country, but the actions of David Cameron and his government, the Met and the CPS have sickened me.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

WORLD SERIES OF POKER ......

Hard to say how much of this is down to Black Friday, but we finally have a true "world" series November 9 with players from Belize, Czech Reublic, Germany, Ireland, Great Britain and Ukraine joining the three home based players.

Surprisingly missing are the obligatory Russian and Canadian !

All are guaranteed at least $782k for their $10k buy in, but most will have their eyes on the $8.7m first prize, top four all earn at least $3m which is the minimum you would want for a couple of weeks work !

Czech Martin Staszko leads the way with 40m in chips, short stack is englishman Sam Holden with 12.375m, but with blinds at 250k/500k and a 50k ante ( level 36), the whole field has some play in them. Ukranian Anto Makiievskyi is youngest at just 21, old man Badish Bounahra a doddery 49 , at least in poker terms !

Big name amongst the finalist is WSOP POTY Ben Lamb, he already has a bracelet this year, several other big cashes and was 14th in the main event two years ago. Even with a mid size stack he is many peoples idea of the winner. No views on that from me at the moment, but I will definitely be previewing the final table a little nearer the time.

Good Luck.

contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

FRIDAY ....

I am having a pretty good week so far, touch wood, three winners and one stake returned from four red type selections and as all of you who took part in the trial know, I am heavily involved in the Copa, with outright bets at big prices on Uruguay, so, an exciting weekend ahead.

Brentford ran in another six goals at Hampton in midweek, making sixteen in two pre season outings, they rested the two strikers who scored seven between them in the first, so the Bees are sharing the goals beween them, which is a good sign. They entertain EPL opposition tonight at the "Theatre of Sleepless Nights" otherwise known as Griffin Park. That is a big step up in class of course, but City also play at Aldershot tomorrow and will doubtless give all senior players an outing across the two games. Home debut for Uwe Rosler , the players will want to continue to impress him and he, the supporters. Again, those of you who took part in trial know my thoughts on the Bees this season. I believe I know exactly where they "are" and am also very confident about english football in general going into the new season. I have worked incredibly hard in the last month or two and think this is going to be a record year for me.

Good Luck.

contact stencelwade@btinternet.com

2. BUNDESLIGA ......

Second tier football returned to Germany last weekend after a summer break of just 61 days, for playoff losers VfL Bochum it meant a restart just 54 days after losing out to BMG , not long to get over such a massive disappointment and I was keen to oppose them last night.

Last season teams had a very long 103 day break either side of the World Cup and this year we have gone to the other extreme. Goals normally flow freely in this division early season and with less time to work on defensive play, especially for those teams who have been active in the transfer market, we could see that trend continue this season. The opening month normally produces 12-18% more goals than we expect over a full season in 2.Bundesliga and this could be a good arena for "overs" in the next week or two.


Good Luck.

MONDAY ..... CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM

OH MY !


Brentford did little to curb the almost unbridled enthusiasm of their success starved supporters at the weekend. Scoring ten ( yes TEN !) unanswered goals in their opening pre season friendly in the UK.


Tonbridge Angels, a regular pre season opponent, were on the wrong end of this thumping and might not be quite so welcoming in the future, this is normally a reasonably close fixture ( 0-0 last season if I recall correctly) and it was made even worse/better by the fact that the Bees changed all eleven players at the break.

Angels supporters said both eleven's looked as good as the other and each ran in five goals. Plenty of options for this squad who look well ahead in fitness and preparation.


Good Luck.

SEVEN DAY TRIAL ....

The seven day trial open to all has just ended, there were twelve actual ( red type) selections in the email and results were as follows .....

Monday : no bet

Tuesday: 1.5 units 2.04 available WON
1 unit 2.10 available WON

Wednesday : 2 units 2.25 WON
1.5 units 2.80 LOST

Thursday : 1.5 units 1.67 WON
1.5 units 1.91 WON

Friday: 1 unit 1.80 WON
1 unit 2.15 LOST after being four up with six holes to play !

Saturday : 1 unit 2.02 LOST very unlucky !
1 unit 101.0 yes, that's correct 100-1 LOST

Sunday: 1 unit 2.13 LOST
1 unit 1.877 LOST

Not much went our way over the weekend, but still a solid return and one selection was very speculative .

12 selections, 15 units staked, 16.63 units returned, which is a ROI of 10.87% and in addition I also "suggested" a bet on Uruguay to win the Copa America @ 13.5 , now trading at sub 3.0.

It was fun while it lasted and everyone who took part will be able to continue to read a very small part of my output here .

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

I am not going to post anything on the blog this week, it seems pointless as so many of you are getting all my daily notes by email after taking up the seven day offer.

If you need to ask anything about this , please email stencelwade@btinternet.com

Blog results LINK.

Good Luck.

REMINDER ....

You have until midnight UK time tomorrow ( Sunday) to register for the free trial, details of which are two posts down. It will not be possible to add anyone to the list after that time, so please do not ask.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

I am not getting involved in the Women's World Cup today, but will probably do so tomorrow. However, I have to admit to being shocked by the comments of Bruno Bini, coach of the french team, Who said after the loss to Germany "We're still in the running for second place. If we can win our quarter-final, and we want to win it, we'll be one of three teams still in contention for second place. England are a decent side - they were finalists at the last European Championships after all. It's a shame we have to play them with regard to our 2012 Olympic prospects. I would have preferred Sweden. We need to fight to ensure defend our place at the Olympics."

His team are in the quarter finals and he seems to feel that only second place is up for grabs ! This, in the most open WC we have probably ever seen is odd in the extreme and from a psychological point of view, seems a big mis-step. To take his team into a game feeling that they are second best, at best, is a mistake and his squad are already a little fragile confidence wise and face another big physical challenge from England today.

In Allsvenskan, Trelleborg host Kalmar, just seven days after the pair met in the reverse fixture, which today's visitors won 3-2, they were three up at the half and the away goals both came in the final three minutes, when Kalmar were running down the clock and had just had their goalkeeper sent off.Trelleborg have now conceded 22 goals in six starts and their defence looked very suspect every time the ball came into the box and the first two goals came directly from long throw ins, which gave the TFF backline problems all day long and will doubtless be a factor again today.

Visiting keeper Etrit Berisha is suspended of course, but I assume that the vastly experienced Petter Wasta, with over 350 starts for Kalmar, will come into the side and that should be a pretty seamless switch. The team will travel in great heart to a stadium where they have lost just once in six visits, winning three and unbeaten in six h2h games home and away, winning five. Kalmar have now won three in a row, the first really solid consistent run they have put together this season and another today will take them level at the top on points with Helsingborgs, whom they play in the next round of matches. Actually, they play three of the other top five in their next four outings and are viewing the three points on offer today as not just key, but the "easiest" they will be offered in the next month. I make Kalmar -0.25 1.87+ for 1.5 units my first "official" selection of the day.

Good Luck.

NEXT WEEK ......

We have an incredible seven days of sporting action ahead of us next week, on the football front we have the conclusion of the Women's World Cup finals, the last round of group games and quarter finals in the Copa America, to say nothing of some tasty looking pre season games and Champions League qualifiers. Golf fans will be sated by day long coverage of the Open Championship from Sandwich, Le Tour continues on it's merry way through France and we will be well into the second week of the WSOP Main Event, where I have already put up a strong selection in the "to cash" market.

I will be updating and covering all of these events and anything else that takes my fancy in my daily notes and you can receive these each and every day next week for free ( Monday July 11th- Sunday July 17th inclusive), all you have to do is send me an email to ( stencelwade@btinternet.com) BEFORE midnight on Sunday July 10th. No one can be added after that time, I repeat, no one can be added after that time, this will still not stop fifty people asking for the free week in about a month's time, but I have tried to make myself clear.

All your email has to say is "opt in" or something similar, but you have to ask, no one already in my data base will receive this offer unless they request it.

Good Luck.

MC PUTTING THE HAMMER DOWN !

THE MOST EXCITING SPORTSMAN ON THE PLANET ......

This time I am not talking about Jackie Graham, the hard as nails, supremely gifted Brentford midfielder of the 70's whom my brother and I hero worshipped and stalked from a respectful distance for about four years ( !), but Mark Cavendish.

Call me an old cynic, but unless I have a financial investment, or my beloved Bees are in action, it takes a lot to get me up out of my seat with pure excitement, but if there is a more thrilling sight in sport than MC putting the hammer down with 300 metres to go in a stage sprint finish, I have yet to see it. At 26 the man is already a legend and the fact that half of his fellow riders and the tour organisers are trying every trick in the book and some they are making up along the way to stop him. just makes it even more fun. Cut his leg open and like a stick of seaside rock, it will say "winner" all the way through . Cavendish was born to race and has an almost criminally insatiable desire to win , if only every single sportsman we ever backed had this attitude, we could just place our bets and then go and queue at the payout counter. If you have not watched it yet, go on, give yourself a thrill, take two minutes out of your life and watch the finish of yesterday's stage ( 5) of Le Tour, it's worth it ! MC passed ten world class sprinters in the last 250 metres like they were in reverse gear !

I wonder every year how many people watch the Tour sat on an exercise bike, coasting along with the peloton through the countryside and then putting their foot down for a sprint finish ? Of course they need a mountain stage simulator for the week ahead, but probably already have that in place............ sounds fun !

I have something quite exciting to post later today, please check back.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

Venezuela kept Brazil at bay for 90 minutes and were never troubled with their two goal handicap start, we have now seen all twelve teams and only Chile have scored more than a single goal, but I am sure that the action will pick up through the next series of matches.

In the Women's World Cup Australia failing to win by two was hard to take, it was not the fact that they led 3-1 quite late and hit the woodwork on at least three occasions ( I missed the last 6-7 minutes), but the killer was when one of the Equartorial outfield players caught the ball as it came back off the crossbar and held it for a full 2-3 seconds, before dropping it and playing on, with the match officials completely missing the incident. This is all over the internet now , so if you have not seen it, take a look, as painful as it might be, it is quite amusing !

The pre season friendlies in the UK have now started and I will be following these closely in the coming weeks and I suggest you do likewise. They are a fantastic betting medium that I have milked in the past and all long term readers of the blog and/or subscribers will know that, with a little homework, it is possible to get a jump on the bookmakers with regard to both motivation and team news. I will not really getting overly involved until the english teams play, but the scottish teams are already in action and it will pay you to really study these fixtures in the coming month. It is unlikely that I will be able to post much from these games on the blog, but there is nothing to stop you doing the work yourself and making some holiday money !

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

The Copa America has not really fired up the public yet, maybe the introduction of holders Brazil who are looking for a hat trick of titles will do the trick when they face improving Venezuela.

The Samba Boys will , as always, be exciting to watch and look set to start with three up front, namely Pato, Robinho and Neymar, with Ganso in a traditional playmaker role. I am not sure that this is the best formation and am sure that we will see a lot of experimentation in this young squad which is clearly building for the next World Cup which they are desperate to win on home soil.

I have to also give a word of caution about the two goal handicap they are asked to give up today. In the six major tournaments they have played this millenium, that's three Copa's and three World Cups, they have tended to start slowly losing two of their opening games and winning the other four by single goal margins. Venezuela will pack their defence and try to frustate Brazil, just like they did in the World Cup qualifier in Rio in October 2009. Venezuela have probably improved a little since then and I guess if forced to pick I would opt for them getting a two goal start @ circa 1.84.

I am anxious to see tiny Yohandry Onozco in action today, he has yet to start for Wolfsburg, but scored an absolute wonder goal for Venezuela at the CONMEBOL Under-20 Championships earlier this year, you can watch it here and it is certainly worth a quick look.

Women's World Cup sees Australia take on Equatorial Guinea and the loser of this can pack their bags and get ready for a quick getaway after the third group game. They both come here on the back of opening 1-0 defeats, EG lost to Norway and performed pretty well, creating chances, but like so many other teams in this competition, were very wasteful in front of goal .

Australia lost to Brazil but had 12 attempts on goal and enjoyed 52% possession, they are a nation on the up, made the quarter finals in the last World cup where they lost by the odd goal in five to Brazil and were unbeaten through the group stage, including putting four past Ghana a higher ranked African nation.

EG is a tiny nation of only some 600,000, so to get a women's team here is fantastic, but they are not used to this level of competition and another game again so quickly is very likely to find them out. If Australia score first and inside the hour, I can see them running away with this . The Matildas played really well in the opening 45 minutes against Brazil with Lisa De Vanna given them plenty of trouble and making the keeper work several times. They did not bow after going behind and almost snatched a late equaliser, which perhaps would have been a fairer result. Australia -1.25 goals 1.93 1.5 units.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ......

A few lines from my notes today....

Finally on to Wimbledon and the long awaited Mens Semi Finals and it is here I come for my two "official" selections of the day. Huge pressure on Andy Murray who faces defending champion Rafael Nadal at this stage for the second year running.

Murray is in his best form of the season and having now been in several grand slam finals, it is time for him to make the big step forward. Having not played in 2009 and also winning in 2008, Rafa has not lost at the All England club since the 2007 final, so is looking for a 20th straight win. He will be boosted by a 11-5 h2h record over Murray , he is 4-2 in grand slams and 2-0 on grass, lets start with a look at one of those, the semi final meeting last year .Nadal won in three close sets ( 33 games) in which there were very few break points for either and the match was decided by a couple of big points which the spanish superstar played better. They last met at Roland Garros a month ago and again Rafa eased home in three close sets ( 32 games), but this time Murray had the chances to win, or at least take a set or two, earning 19 break points, that gives him an awful lot of hope for today.

If he can take Rafa that close on a court which is like a second home, he has a chance on a surface which suits him better, having said that, Nadal obviously feels at home here too, but there remains a big difference between the two surfaces. My point is that this is it, it will be hard to make excuses after today, if Murray cannot take Nadal at least to the wire at Wimbledon, when is it going to happen outside of the USA? The british player upped his game against big serving Lopez and Gasquet ( who had given him problems in the past) in the last two rounds and this is about as fresh as he had been in any of his grand slam runs. Rafa does have some ankle concerns too, I expect this to go to at least four sets today and quite possible five, it is possible to bet the "over" 39.5 games at up to 1.83, @ 1.80 + it would be my strong selection, if only the 40.5 game option is available to you, I would still take it, but for reduced stakes.

Good Luck.