TODAY'S NOTES IN FULL ..... WRITTEN 09.45 AM

Since writing these notes early morning, Fleetwood have been backed in a quarter ball, but you might still find the preview of interest and as usual, there is content that might help you target a future winner in any case.

TUESDAY JANAUARY 10TH

Steve Striker won the Hyundai overnight, so obviously landed our Top 4 bet, looking at the Monday selections, Jonathan Byrd beat Striker to secure a small profit and there was money to be made on the Arsenal-Leeds United game if you followed the trading hint, with the Gunners securing a 13th win of the season by the minimum margin, courtesy of a late Thierry Henry goal.

Going to start today in the Conference National and the match between Fleetwood town and AFC Barrow. We have covered Fleet many times in recent seasons, most recently on New Year's Day ( see below) and they have rarely let us down, they put six unanswered goals past Southport on that day, but were themselves on the wrong end of a "beating", losing their third round cup tie to local rivals Blackpool 5-1 on saturday. However, there was a big difference between the two defeated teams and there were a lot of positives for Town to take out of their defeat, the first half was very even, but the visitors were very clinical in front of goal and rememebr, they were in the EPL last season, whereas Fleet were in the tenth ( !) tier of english football just 12 seasons ago and have a favourite's chance of playing in the Football League next season.

This is all down to their financial clout and despite lying in second and with a huge squad, which I touched upon in the earlier post, they have already started to invest most of the money from the FA Cup campaign, yesterday they added influential midfieder Lee Fowler from league leaders Wrexham, the 12 times Wales U21 International is hugely experienced and will slot into what is now the best midfield unit in the division. They are also said to be adding Andre Bouchard from York City, these two clubs are probably two of the only three real rivals to Fleetwood for the automatic promotion spot and to sign key players from direct rivals at this stage of the campaign is virtually unheard of, but when Town go after a player they get him and are clearly going to spend whatever is needed to secure that FL place. I also heard that they turned down a circa £1m offer for Jamie Vardy last week, in the current climate, what other non league club would refuse a bid like that ? Or in any climate for that matter !

They will be looking to bounce back today, although to be honest, there is not much to bounce back from and three points would take them to the top of the table. They will also have a little revenge on their minds, Fleet have lost only three games this season and all came early season ( they are unbeaten in three months), including a 4-0 loss in the reverse fixture. That match was lost in the opening 45 minutes and was a big wake up call to Town, who had not conceded a league goal before that debacle.

Barrow arrive in a comfortable midtable position, but have been helped by a nice run of fixtures, they have a tough sequence of games on the horizon starting today and they are very much a "home" team, Holker Street is a tough and at times, intimidating venue and they have posted nine wins there ( only Wrexham have more), but just three on their travels, losing eight. They are short of numbers and whilst they can put out a starting eleven the bench has been thin to say the least recently, on saturday it included three defenders ( one of whom is playing out his contract and unhappy and another with little first tean experience) and also a 43 year old ! They have had to release a couple of key players and are looking to replace them, I understand that they signed a youngster from Burnley yesterday, this has not been officially confirmed, but it pales alongside the transfer news from Fleetwood and the hosts should win this with a degree of comfort. Fleetwood Town -1 ball 2.0 asian line.

Elsewhere I am keen on Yeovil Town making the tough trip to Sheffield United getting a huge handicap start. The Glovers are in the drop zone, but incredibly have not lost on the road in over three months, that is eight matches in all competitions and they have not been behind at any stage in the last five. Their home form has been poor of course, this happens sometimes ( Brentford !) and teams play better away from the pressure of their own stadium. Anyhow, this has led to a managerial change, with Gary Johnson returning to the club and former boss Terry Skiverton moving down to the number two position, it is a sign of the respect that Johnson has at the club that Skiverton would agree to that, the pair have worked together for many years previously and I feel that this switch might just keep Town in the third tier. This was only announced yesterday, but was I understand agreed last week and the pair have already been making plans and looking to bring back the success they enjoyed previously at Huish Park ( two championships in three seasons). They have been busy this week extending the loan of Tottenham striker Jonathan Obika until the end of the season and signing Ryan Dickson (pictured above, albeit not in the "classic" Bees shirt) on an initial one month deal from Southampton, this is exceptional business. Dickson is a player I know very well, despite things not working out for him so far at St Mary's he is without doubt one of the top left backs in lower league football and it is a real coup to get him. Town have had a week to rest since their last game and will travel fresh and keen to mark the return of Johnson with a positive result, United are very strong at home, but rarely thump anyone and have developed a potentially nasty habit of conceding too freely at home (15 in their last 12 starts) and that is going to catch them out sooner or later. I would not be surprised to see the points shared and have seen 26.0 quoted for a 2-2 draw and might "throw away" a couple of euros on that, or on the 5.0 for Town to score two or more, something they have done in three of their last six road starts, but let's keep things simple .... Yeovil Town +1.25 ball 2.03 asian line.

Good Luck.

CONFERENCE NATIONAL :

SOUTHPORT - FLEETWOOD TOWN ( written 01/01)

These are the return fixtures of matches played on Boxing Day. These two played out an incident packed 2-2 draw at Highbury Stadium, where Town forced a late equaliser courtesy of the prolific Richard Brodie, despite playing 35 minutes with ten men, after Jamie McGuire was sent off, he is suspended for today's fixture. That would be a significant loss for most teams, but Fleet are a very well financed club and have an incredible 33 registered players, including former Manchester United player Danny Rose, who signed earlier this week, choosing Town ahead of Crystal Palace who were very interested in him, Rose goes straight into the squad and is a direct replacement for McGuire. Back in their BSS days we talked about Fleetwood and how they had funds that other clubs could only dream about, planning a £5m stadium upgrade and £250k on improving the playing surface, to say nothing on the investment in players. They have a dream FA Cup tie against Blackpool next week, who are the nearest "big" club and the one manager Micky Mellon made his name as a player at, so that will be a distraction of sorts and enough for me to scale down my stakes slightly, but it is promotion to the Football League that is the target this season and to those ends, this game is MASSIVE. Three points would keep them, at worse, within two of leaders Wrexham and effectively take Southport and the rest of the chasing pack out of the equation ( 9 points and a game in hand), at least for the time being.

Town missed out on promotion in the playoffs last season, losing to AFC Wimbledon in the semi-finals and are, as you might expect, keen to avoid that lottery this time round. They are more comfortable on the road, having already posted ten wins away from Highbury, in addition to a second round FA Cup win at League 1 side Yeovil Town and have actually won 9 of their last ten ( one draw) away starts in the Conference. In all league starts, home and away, they have averaged 2.5 goals per game and it is hardly surprising given their financial clout, as they can attract players like Brodie for whom they paid a significant five figure sum, just to take on a season long loan deal. Most of the others have either huge Football League experience or know how to get out of the Conference and all that knowledge makes for a very well balanced squad, which should go close to claiming the title. They are also full time and especially at this time of year, that gives them an advantage over part time squads like Southport, who were forced to fit in a Thursday night training session, the only time the players met inbetween the two matches. Fleetwood dominated the second half on Monday even with ten men and I expect them to come out on top today. 1.5 units Fleetwood Town -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line.

RESULTS .......

I am going to post the results from my daily notes on the blog on a weekly basis this year. This is mainly for my own benefit, but all of you that have registered for the occasional "freebie" email, will get one or two copies per month, so it at least has some relevance.

Anyway, January 1-8th inclusive :

Bets: 18 , Winners 10, Average Odds 2.19 , Stakes 21.5 units , Returns 27.85 units, ROI 129.53%.

I will update these every Monday or Tuesday and the blog results, every couple of months or so.

Back shortly .

TAKEN FROM SUNDAY'S NOTES ....

Looking to end on a higher note and take something positive into today, so despite not planning to cover the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, I can at least report that Steven Stricker ( see below) leads by five shots, after tearing up the course with a 63, there are only eight players within ten strokes of him and with Stricker ranked number one for Round 3 scoring last year on tour and third in 2009, it is very hard to see him blowing up big time today.

Kevin Na shot the second best score of the day and beat Martin Laird, whom he is paired with today, by six shots, Pinnacle Sports make the Korean born Na 2.12 ( with the tie no bet) to repeat that win over the Scot and that at least was tempting enough to make me take a quick look at the match up. Obviously, quite a lot went right for Na yesterday, it has to if you are going to shoot nine under par, meanwhile Laird lost a ball and also missed a couple of very short putts, he hits the ball a country mile, but is not my favourite golfer and his all round stats over the first two days, especially in the key categories we discussed on Thursday have been poor. Laird was an eyecatching 2nd on Tour for 3rd round scoring last year, but outside the top 100 in the two previous seasons, in this category Na has improved year upon year ( 52-25-18) and is very solid. Because of the nature of the leaderboard and short field, the tournament will have something of a feel of a final day today, especially being played on a sunday, so I also looked at the "in contention" final round stats and this is where Na has a big edge, he has improved his position 100% of the time starting in the final five, Laird is just 33% from the same number of starts. It is hard to go low two days in a row, but at the odds offered I would just about side with Na, but no bet for me.

Elsewhere, In Serie A, the always interesting Atalanta - Milan fixture catches my eye. Hosts remain unbeaten in Bergamo with a 4-4-0 record , in fact they have lost just once at home in over 13 months and that a meaningless fixture when promotion had already been assured last season, they come into this game unbeaten in seven starts and without their six point deduction they would have entered the weekend in 5th place and boast a good record in this fixture, losing just one of four here in the league and three of ten in all competitions. The squad enter the game in reasonably healthy condition and the only real decision is who will replace Daniele Capelli in the heart of the defence, he will miss the rest of the season. Milan coach Massimiliano Allegri will be without the services of the banned Massimo Ambrosini, as well as injured quartet Ignazio Abate, Mathieu Flamini, Mario Yepes and Antonio Cassano. They have spent most of this week in Dubai, where they met PSG, so that might liven them up a little, they were very lacklustre after the Christmas break last season, finding a very late winner at Cagliari, losing entering injury time and conceding four at home to Udinese and drawing with Lecce. That especially applies to Zlatan Ibrahimovic who has a reputation of peaking early season and "losing interest" in the second half of the campaign. Without the very important Abate and protection offered by Ambrosini, the visiting backline look vunerable and top Serie A marksman German Denis will be looking to add to his tally. I do not feel that Milan will few a point here as two dropped and with one eye on the Milan derby next week, will be very wary of picking up any more injuries, especially to their backline. I definitely expect Atalanta to score, especially if Antonini starts, as seems likely and take these two to share the spoils. Atalanata + 0.75 ball 1.89 asian line.

Two NFL Wildcard games to discuss. Perhaps the most interesting of all the games this weekend is the Pittsburgh Steelers - Denver Broncos match up. Steelers are the defending AFC champions and with regard to the post season, have been here and done it all many times before, the Broncos stumbled over the finishing line, losing their last three starts and are only here because they are in a very weak division and other teams, especially the Raiders, also failed to get the job done.

Steelers are definitely favourites, but travel West asked to give up 9 points and in what seems sure to be a big defensive battle, with the NFL’s top ranked rushing attack (Denver) facing the league’s number one overall defense, that does seem to be on the big side.

Pittsburgh lost running back Rashard Mendenhall for the season last week and that is a big loss as it will put increased pressure on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and his injured ankle, unless replacement Issac Redman can step up and that is in question after he came into the game last week and ran for 92 yards, but also fumbled the ball twice. They will have no option but to give him the ball, just to keep the Broncos honest, but will mainly be throwing to their outstanding receivers, this is a fine balancing act between winning the game and keeping Roethlisberger injury free for the rest of the post season.

Broncos do not throw the ball much at all, they lead the league in rushing yards and will be looking to establish this early and will only take limited risks through the air. Their operate more of a college style offense and whilst qb Tim Tebow has "an arm", it can go anywhere, however, he is mobile and can run the ball, which is not an option at present for his Steelers counterpart. They dare not go behind early by more than a touchdown, playing catch up is not their style and they do not have the personnel to do so. Defensively they will look to get to BR, they have a top ranked crop of linebackers and Dumervil and Miller alone have 21 sacks between them. Hosts have a big advantage with the noisy crowd at Sports Authority Field at Mile High and it is important that the Broncos keep the fans involved, this is all about how the opening quarter plays out IMO, if Denver can keep things tight early and run down the clock, the 9 point advantage will look big, but if they fall a touchdown or more behind and are forced to throw, the turnovers will follow and the Steelers could run up a big number. One to watch, savour and maybe play "in running".

I was very big on ....................

Good Luck.

update ....

Not Chesterfield's day and definitely not mine !

Chesterfield started slowly and were forced to an early change when Westcarr went off injured, they worked their way back into the game and were awarded a penalty with 17 minutes to play with the score still 0-0, Whitaker who had apparently converted 14 in a row ( !) had his attempt saved, five minutes later they were a goal down .

Football League matches had seen 77% of all penalties scored this season before today, worst conversion rate was in the EPL ( 68%), best in League 2 ( 84%), not sure if that says more about the quality of keepers, or the pressure in the top flight, but feel like I have been on the wrong end of most of the misses !

Personally, I made one good move today, flat stakes and only three selections !

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM SATURDAY'S NOTES .....

SATURDAY JANUARY 7TH

The ten hour time difference between Hawaii and London is a bit of a killer with regard to following the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, but it was nice to find Steve Striker ( see below) in a share of second place this morning, he shot a five under par 68, just one stroke behind Jonathan Byrd and he has taken an early five shot + advantage over several players ( Watson, Watney and Woodland to name three) who were well fancied pre tournament.Lucas Glover did not start by the way, leaving us with a 27 man field. I have just watched some brief highlights and Stricker really hit some nice iron shots late in his round and looked comfortable in the wind.This event ends on Monday, so I will put it on the back burner until then, when I will take a look at the usually profitable, last day's play.

I have three flat stake football bets for today, to be honest, it is not the most interesting day of the season IMO and the Las Vegas oddsmakers and I agree ( for once) on the points spread for today's Wildcard games in the NFL, however, that is definitely not the case tomorrow, when I have a very solid pick, along with a FAR more exciting day on the football front and much as I love the NFL, when I say football, it is always the beautiful game and the round ball I am talking about !

In Division 1 ,Chesterfield have a massive game when they entertain Exeter City, the Spirites are at the foot of the table, six points from safely and the club currently sitting in that 20th spot in the table which is Nirvana for the teams in the drop zone, is City. The hosts have upped their game recently, without getting their just reward, they lost by the odd goal in five at Wycombe after leading twice and had chances to win drawn starts against Scunthorpe, Walsall and Oldham, again leading in two. Time is running out for them and they have two road games up next, defensively they look to have at least steadied the ship and are not shipping goals at the same rate they were earlier in the campaign and this is a side with goals in them, only Scunthorpe in the bottom ten have scored more and with regard to attempts on goal, they are 9th in the table, averaging over 2.5 per game more than City. They claim to have been "mentally stronger" in their last two games and this is absolutely vital, once teams lose confidence, it is incredibly hard to turn things around. The board have promised funds to strengthen and Liam Ridehalgh has joined this week from Huddersfield, via Swindon, the Robins were keen to keep him ( more of that later), but his parent club wanted him to play third tier football, he is a young player with potential whom Chesterfield tried to sign in the summer. This will further solidify the back line and surely boss John Sheridan will go for it today and play two up front, he has the prolific Jack Lester ( a goal every two games at the club) backfrom suspension today and he should return alongside the promising Jordan Bowery, Drew Talbot has been creating a lot of chances from the right and now in Lester, they have the right man to make the most of them. Chesterfield -0.5 ball 2.25 general quote.

Into the FA Cup 3rd round games and first up is the match between .................

THURSDAY JANUARY 4TH

No football for me today, but I do have a confident selection, next email will be sent on Friday morning.

The USPGA Tour gets underway today, with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, at the Kapalua Plantation course on the North West coast of Maui. This, as the name might suggest, is for all 2011 Tour winners, 39 were eligible, but only 28 have entered, due to a variety of reasons, some better than others and only Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson of the top ten ranked players in the world are taking part.

It is Mr Stricker that I am interested in, he is a traditionally fast starter and prolific winner. He has finished top four on his seasonal debut in four of the last five years, including a 4th here last Janauary and second place finish in 2008, the only blip in that five year sequence was in 2010, when he was tenth here after a very poor start, he then finished third and first in his next two outings. He shot an opening round par score of 73 that year, basically giving up four strokes to the field and shot a very nice 66 on Sunday, in 2008 he also started slowly but finished like a train, with a 64 in Round 4. Last year he put things right in Round 1 and yes, you have guess it, slipped off the pace on Sunday with a 71, a 66 or better would have been enough for victory and he must feel that was a Tour win that got away. Time for him to put the fours rounds all together, on a course that clearly suits him.

The wide open and long fairways suit long hitters and Steve hit a 424 yard drive here in 2010, but key stats on these huge greens are scrambling ( last eight winners were all ranked within the top ten) and strokes gained putting ( seven of the last eight winners all ranked either first or second). Stricker was ranked second on tour for scrambling last year and inside the top 14 in each of the last four seasons, he was also second on Tour for strokes gained and he clearly ticks all the right boxes.

The injury concerns he had in November were put to bed, with a comfortable singles win in the Presidents Cup and a solid showing at the Franklin Templeton event in December, he has been practicing a lot in Arizona with Aaron Baddeley and Bubba Watson in the build up to this and looks primed to go well. He is favourite at circa 9.2 on the exchanges, but this is very much a reduced field and he is the highest ranked golfer on display and an eleven time winner on Tour, seven coming in the last three years alone and nine of them in the first half of the golfing year. Good course and stat form, a proven winner, who hits the ground running, hard to pick any holes in his chances. I am going to take 1.5 units on him to record another top 4 start to the season, this is on offer at circa 2.50 + pretty much across the board and for four figure liquidity at 2.80 + on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

IT'S A FUNNY OLD GAME !

We are only four days into the New Year, but already variance has raised it's ugly head with regard to blog readers.

My daily notes, all reproduced below, have included seven selections ( Hayes-Ebbsfleet was abandoned) and six have won, the only loser was the Bradford City selection, which was the only one posted on the blog ! I also wrote a decent preview ( no seletion)of the Real Madrid match yesterday.

This was the problem I tried to explain in previous posts, most recently on December 29th, there is a big difference between my notes which are written every day of the week and the occasional post on here. Having said that, I will try again and post something on here over the weekend.

Bristol City -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line. WON 1-0

Wigan-Sunderland "Over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line. WON 1-4

Blackburn Rovers- Stoke City 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line. WON 2-1

Doncaster Rovers -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line. WON 2-0

1.5 units Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line. LOST

1.5 units Fleetwood Town -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line WON 6-0

1.5 units Hayes & Yeading- Ebbsfleet United "over" 2.75 goals 1.85 asian line.VOID

1.5 units New York -3 points 1.95 Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Line. WON 31-14

By the way, Bradford were a "little" unlucky, having had the better of the first half, they then conceded three in eleven minutes, two via goalkeeping errors ( one was a real howler) and another a hotly disputed ( but then they always are !) penalty.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY #3

TUESDAY JANUARY 3RD

It looked for long time that we were going to go three from three yesterday, Bradford City had the better of the first half, but conceded three in eleven minutes midway through the second, two were errors from the goalkeeper and one a wrongly awarded penalty.

Not a lot of matches today, but all very interesting.

Going to start with a few words about the Copa del Rey fixture between Real Madrid and Malaga, both clubs have named their strongest available squads for this first leg, with the return match scheduled for the middle of next week. Hosts had not taken this competition seriously in recent seasons, twice losing to lower league opposition, but last year made it to the final, where they defeated Barcelona. This time round, they are looking for the La Liga/ Champions League double and I suspect the domestic cup competition will once again take a back seat, that is not to say that they cannot win, just that later in the campaign it is going to be more of an inconvenience. Today, I guess it will be viewed as a nice warm up for the weekend league fixture.

Real have tended to start slowly after the mini mid winter break, easing past Getafe by the odd goal in five and losing a meaningless match at Levante 2-0 last season and drawing 0-0 at Osasuna in 2010, when they were already out of the cup. Big spending Malaga will probably be up for this, especially RVN returning to the Bernabeu ( he will be pleased to see that Carvalho is missing) and Santi Carzorla looking to retain his place in the national team and this is a great opportunity to impress Vicente del Bosque. If this game was in Malaga, I would be very keen to side with Los Boquerones and even in the capital, admit to being tempted by the huge looking 2.5 goal handicap start for the visitors. A few too many unknown factors here, think I will watch the opening exchanges and if Real look a little lethargic, I will take a little on Malaga, if forced to choose now, it would have to be them at odds against ( 2.08) getting 2.5 goals, they tend to find a goal on their travels and that would leave Real needing at least four to cover, which normally would not be too much of a problem, but they might need this outing to shake the Christmas cobwebs away.

MALAGA
Goalkeepers: Caballero, Ruben
Defenders: Jesus Gamez, Demichelis, Mathijsen, Monreal, Eliseu, Sergio Sanchez
Midfielders: Camacho, Toulalan, Apoño, Cazorla, Isco, Duda, Buonanotte
Forwards: Van Nistelrooy, Sebastian Fernandez, Rondon, Juanmi

REAL MADRID

Goalkeepers: Casillas, Adan, Mejias

Defenders: Arbeloa, Coentrao, Marcelo, Pepe, Varane, Albiol

Midfielders: Lass, Khedira, Granero, Sahin, Xabi Alonso, Ozil, Callejon, Altintop, Kaka

Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuain

In the EPL, WBA have a lot of problems today, but that has already been factored into the very low odds for Tottenham, so no bet there for us.

I am keen on goals in the Wigan-Sunderland match. Somehow the makeshift Sunderland rearguard held on against Manchester City, they only had one regular starting defender on the pitch at the end and were forced to work incredibly hard to keep pace with the league leaders who created 25 attempts on goal and battered the Black Cats in the second period. That must have left them drained and the 24 hours less recovery time, will have done them few favours with this quick turnaround between matches, Wigan having played a day earlier at Stoke City where they somehow found a late equaliser despite being down to ten men, with defender Gary Caldwell being sent off and he is suspended today. Wigan are looking to do the double, having won very fortunately at the Stadium of Light in November, three points would take them out of the drop zone, ahead of a visit from Manchester City, so would be very valuable. The visitors will be out for revenge and incredibly a win for them could take them into the top ten, if they had not found that late, late winner at home to Blackburn Rovers in Martin O'Neill's first game in charge they would have been in the drop zone and the turnaround in just 23 days has been remarkable. Wigan are very gung-ho at times , especially at the DW Stadium and there will be plenty of space for both to exploit and plenty of tired legs late in the game, when this will get very stretched. "Over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line.

In the Championship, I like Bristol City at home to Millwall, key here for me is Darius Henderson missing from the visiting line up, the Lions have won six matches this season and Henderson has scored in five of those, he is very much their main target man, so much play goes through him and it all breaks down in his absence. We discussed City's huge improvement under Derek McInnes earlier in his reign ( see below). That improvement continues and they recently ended Southampton's long unbeaten home run, they won at the New Den in the next match after the Burnley preview ( where they also won 3-1) and have continued to play well, without getting their due reward at times. This might be the last time we see Maynard and Adomah together at City and they will surely want to sign off with a win, hosts have had 24 hours longer recovery time, following that Friday night game at St Mary's. Wall arrive in low confidence after a saturday derby loss to Crystal Palace and without their big target man , I have to oppose them. Bristol City -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line.

Good Luck.

BRISTOL CITY - BURNLEY ( NOV 5th)

I was very impressed with the Robins performance at West Ham in midweek and travelling fans were buoyant with that and the display at Barnsley last weekend, now they really need one in front of their home supporters, especially ahead of the international break, which will be followed by a tough trip to Millwall and visit from leaders Southampton. If new boss Derek McInnes can go into the break with another win, it will give them three positive results to feed off for a fortnight and the juggernaut will be well and truly on the move .

I told you on wednesday about the Albert Adomah and Nicky Maynard partnership and this pair will give most Championship defences problems and should definitely be up to scoring against a Burnley side with just one clean sheet in 18 starts this season, which came against a Millwall side in freefall at that time. Defensively, City already look a different side under their scottish boss and he has been busy today, signing Stephen Pearson, a midfielder he knows well from their time in the SPL from Derby County. He has also named his own assistant, Gary Owers replacing Steve Wigley and allowed two other players to leave on loan, he has made a huge impact at the club in a very short space of time. The team have already made more sound tactical changes in two games than Millen made in his last two months and even the fringe players have upped their game, with a strong reverse side running in five against Southampton this midweek, increasing competition for places.Bristol City level ball 1.94 + asian line

WEDNESDAY #2

MONDAY JANUARY 2ND

Three selections today and I am going to keep comments fairly brief.

I was interested in Plymouth Argyle, who did us a favour at Aldershot Town ( perhaps a little fortunately) on Saturday, but the combination of long trip over the weekend and poor asian quote, or at least one I am not keen on ( +0.25 ball 1.72), is enough to make me swerve this one, having said that, if there is some 1.90 + available to you off level ball against Torquay United, then that would be far more appealing.

In the EPL, we have done well recently with Blackburn Rovers and they will surely be looking to follow up their amazing win at Old Trafford, with three points on home soil, but we can still not trust them defensively, they have conceded two or more in eight of their last nine starts and the other was at Anfield, where they could have allowed any number if Liverpool had been more ruthless and goodness knows how many this number would have been if Chris Samba had not been available, I have lost count of the number of times he has made last ditch blocks recently. He is being chased by several of the very top clubs and there is always the concern that injury will be at the back of his mind today, with the transfer window now open. Stoke City have been a little better on their travels this season, but still lost 13 EPL starts on the road in 2011, however, they have a solid record here and Samba will be working overtime from long balls into the box, both will almost certainly score IMO and "over" at odds against is far too tempting for me to avoid. 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line.

Onto the Championship and the Yorkshire derby game between Doncaster Rovers and Barnsley , hosts are still bottom of the table, but recent performaces have been so much better than results might suggest and they could easily have got something from road trips to Burnley and Watford both of which they lost by three goals ! They are certainly stronger at the Keepmoat, as wins over Leicester city and Southampton indicate, they lose Goulon after his red card, but have a natural replacement in Stock returning from suspension.They are very strong in the centre of the pitch and with Barnsley missing the hugely influential Butterfield, Drinkwater and Addison, this gives them a huge advantage in midfield for this game. The visitors are coming off a huge 4-1 defeat of Leeds, but United are really struggling and the Tykes always up their game against them. Dean Saunders has brought some classy individuals into the Rovers squad, almost all proven at a much higher level and really used his many contacts in the game. They have reduced ticket prices today and are hoping for a big crowd to take them off the foot of the table.Doncaster Rovers -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line.

I have been monitoring Phil Parkinson at Bradford City, after being flavour of the month a couple of seasons back, Parky has slipped back down the managerial ladder and this is probably his last big club and City are a "big" club at this level, unless he has some success. He has gone back to basics and is looking to build a big strong team at City, much like his Colchester United team of giants, based around a huge defence. Slowly things have come together and they have won three straight, with a 7-1 goal difference, which included defeats of Southend and Shrewsbury, two of the better teams in the division. The only goal conceded in that sequence, came when they were three up and reduced to ten men on saturday, following David Syers dismissal, but they are appealing that and he is available today, they have also signed another big solid defender in Charlie Taylor from Leeds, who I understand is well thought of and poses a big offensive threat too, as a good crosser of the ball. He will get plenty of experience alongside players of the quality of Andrew Davies on loan from Stoke city, who is way too good for this level. I read this about City from a scepical source last week " This powerful no nonsense defensive unit with attitude is already having a beneficial impact on the rest of the team.There will be no lazy passengers playing in this team." that Parkinson has chosen to further strengthen his rearguard is eyecatching under those circumstances and they are a side to follow in early 2012. Hosts Rotherham are struggling and boss Andy Scott is not popular with supporters, personality wise Scott is a bit of a cold fish and fans simply do not warm to him, this does him few favours when things start to go wrong. They will be without keeper Conrad Logan today who has gone back to Leicester and his 35 yo replacement has not played in three months, two other key defenders are out ( Branston cannot play against his parent club) and I have to take the visitors, plus the draw. 1.5 units Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY # 1

JANUARY 1ST 2012

Three match previews to start the New Year, two afternoon kickoffs in the Conference and the late NFL game, the very last of the regular season.

I am keen on all three bets and all were close to being maximum stake selections. Next email will be at the usual time on Monday, when we have an almost full round of Football League and five EPL matches to enjoy.

CONFERENCE NATIONAL :

SOUTHPORT - FLEETWOOD TOWN

These are the return fixtures of matches played on Boxing Day. These two played out an incident packed 2-2 draw at Highbury Stadium, where Town forced a late equaliser courtesy of the prolific Richard Brodie, despite playing 35 minutes with ten men, after Jamie McGuire was sent off, he is suspended for today's fixture. That would be a significant loss for most teams, but Fleet are a very well financed club and have an incredible 33 registered players, including former Manchester United player Danny Rose, who signed earlier this week, choosing Town ahead of Crystal Palace who were very interested in him, Rose goes straight into the squad and is a direct replacement for McGuire. Back in their BSS days we talked about Fleetwood and how they had funds that other clubs could only dream about, planning a £5m stadium upgrade and £250k on improving the playing surface, to say nothing on the investment in players. They have a dream FA Cup tie against Blackpool next week, who are the nearest "big" club and the one manager Micky Mellon made his name as a player at, so that will be a distraction of sorts and enough for me to scale down my stakes slightly, but it is promotion to the Football League that is the target this season and to those ends, this game is MASSIVE. Three points would keep them, at worse, within two of leaders Wrexham and effectively take Southport and the rest of the chasing pack out of the equation ( 9 points and a game in hand), at least for the time being.

Town missed out on promotion in the playoffs last season, losing to AFC Wimbledon in the semi-finals and are, as you might expect, keen to avoid that lottery this time round. They are more comfortable on the road, having already posted ten wins away from Highbury, in addition to a second round FA Cup win at League 1 side Yeovil Town and have actually won 9 of their last ten ( one draw) away starts in the Conference. In all league starts, home and away, they have averaged 2.5 goals per game and it is hardly surprising given their financial clout, as they can attract players like Brodie for whom they paid a significant five figure sum, just to take on a season long loan deal. Most of the others have either huge Football League experience or know how to get out of the Conference and all that knowledge makes for a very well balanced squad, which should go close to claiming the title. They are also full time and especially at this time of year, that gives them an advantage over part time squads like Southport, who were forced to fit in a Thursday night training session, the only time the players met inbetween the two matches. Fleetwood dominated the second half on Monday even with ten men and I expect them to come out on top today. 1.5 units Fleetwood Town -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line.

HAYES & YEADING - EBBSFLEET UNITED

I have just watched 20 minutes of extended highlights from the first meeting, which Fleet won 3-1, that was perhaps a little harsh on Hayes IMO, who created chances of their own, especially in the first hour when the game was still in the balance. They had a lot of joy down both flanks and the wide players were able to cut inside with some ease, number 10 Luke Williams, whom I had not seen before, is apparently attracting scouts on a regular basis and it was easy to see why, as he ran United ragged at times. With the FL transfer window opening again this week, I am sure that he will be out to impress today. To be honest, both defences were pretty dire and more like BSS standard ( on a poor day !) and it is difficult to see either keeping a cleansheet anytime soon and with the last three h2h meetings all producing at least four goals and Hayes last ten starts averaging 4.2 per game, with 8 going "over" and Ebbsfleet's last 10 averaging 3.7 and 6 from 8 "over", I have to take this to follow suit. A point a piece is not really going to help either too much, especially the home side, who would probably remain in the drop zone with a draw and who then start the New Year with two road fixtures. I take this one to carry on in a similar vein to Boxing Day, first goal will blow this wide open and it will not be long in coming . 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.85 asian line.

NFL : DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

This is a playoff game in everything in name, as the winner will take the NFC East title and the loser eliminated from the post season picture. With the title will come a home playoff game against either Detroit or Atlanta and that is a very win-able match up, so a huge incentive to win this. The pair met in Dallas three weeks ago, the Cowboys held a 34-22 with a little over three minutes remaining, but Eli Manning led the Giants to two touchdowns and a famous 37-34 win. Both Manning ( 400 yards) and his counterpart Tony Romo ( 321 yards and four touchdowns) had massive days in that earlier meeting, both seem likely to face each other again tonight, but Romo has been touch and go all week, after badly bruising his hand last week and he definitely would not have been risked if this was a "normal" regular season game. Advantage number one to the Giants.

The second is the momentum they took from that win in Texas and they are definitely the mentally tougher of the two teams IMO, I could not see the Cowboys mounting a similar comeback here in New Jersey. The Giants defense was a little beat up ahead of that game two and was without key safety Kenny Phillips, a situation that Romo was able to exploit, now with Phillips back and he has an interception in each of the last two weeks and Romo's limited arm, it is another big swing in the Giants favour and advantage number three.

They are further boosted by the likely return of Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora, he has trained this week after missing the last month and with the Cowboys offensive line being forced into changes, everything appears to be going New York's way. Big chink in their armoury has been an inability to run the ball much, but in Dallas, Brandon Jacobs ran for 101 yards and two touchdowns, so even that is a positive and will keep the Cowboys "honest" and not just watching Manning and his team of receivers. I just cannot see beyond the Giants here. 1.5 units New York -3 points 1.95 Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY ......WATCHING PARKY ....

I have been monitoring Phil Parkinson at Bradford City recently, after being flavour of the month a couple of seasons back, Parky has slipped back down the managerial ladder and this is probably his last big club and City are a "big" club at this level, unless he has some success. He has gone back to basics and is looking to build a big strong team at City, much like his Colchester United team of giants, based around a huge defence. Slowly and bit by bit things have started to come together and they have won three straight, with a 7-1 goal difference, which included defeats of Southend and Shrewsbury, two of the better teams in the division. The only goal conceded in that sequence, came when they were three up and reduced to ten men on saturday, following David Syers dismissal, but they are appealing that and he is available today, they have also signed another big solid defender in Charlie Taylor from Leeds, whom I understand is well thought of and poses a big offensive threat too, as a good crosser of the ball. He will get plenty of experience alongside players of the quality of Andrew Davies on loan from Stoke city, who is way too good for this level. I read this about City from a fairly scepical source last week " This powerful no nonsense defensive unit with attitude is already having a beneficial impact on the rest of the team.There will be no lazy passengers playing in this team." that Parkinson has chosen to further strengthen his rearguard is eyecatching under the circumstances and they are a side to follow in early 2012. Hosts Rotherham are struggling and boss Andy Scott is not popular with supporters, personality wise Scott is a bit of a cold fish and fans simply do not warm to him, this does him few favours when things start to go wrong. They will be without keeper Conrad Logan today who has gone back to Leicester and his 35 yo replacement has not played in three months, two other key defenders are out ( Branston cannot play against his parent club) and I have to take the visitors, plus the draw. Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

GREAT EXPECTATIONS ...... WITH LONG TERM BETS

A fairly quiet day on the sporting front today, but I did discuss two long term events in my daily notes , one of which can be read lower down the page. I have also found a fantastic maximum stake bet at odds of 6.0 which I believe offers fantastic value. I have a good record with these big odds "maximum" stake bets, the only four decided in the second half of 2011 produced winners at odds of 9.0, 4.50 and 6.0 , with one loser.

Updated blog stats :

Number of posts: 3,802 , Page views: over 1.1 million hits, Original content : circa 15 million words ( about 17 average novels !)

2006 STAKES 991.5 RETURNS 1,154.806 ROI 116.46 %
2007 STAKES 1,187.5 RETURNS 1,331.677 ROI 112.14 %
2008 STAKES 482.5 RETURNS 664.675 ROI 137.75 %
2009 STAKES 548.5 RETURNS 642.43 ROI 117.12 %
2010 STAKES 225.13 RETURNS 259.585 ROI 115.30 %
2011 STAKES 162.25 RETURNS 171.025 ROI 105.41%

TOTALS 3,597.38 RETURNS 4,224.198 ROI 117.39 %

There is an event and country by country breakdown for the first five years of results on this LINK.

These results ONLY apply to selections posted on the blog, nothing else, you almost all receive occasional copies of my daily notes, so should be well aware of that.

Stakes/ number of previews have reduced pretty much two year, upon two year, this is because nowadays ONLY a small number of my selections appear on the blog ( maybe 10-15%), in the past it was close to 80-90%. With reduced output on here, variance is always likely to come into play and this is something I discussed recently LINK.

THURSDAY DECEMBER 29TH

We originally looked at the Eredivisie outright market in early October, that post is reproduced below in blue type and re-reading that, would probably be a good place to start. PSV have since closed the gap to AZ at the top of the table to just a single point, with FC Twente and Ajax a further four points adrift and Feyenoord six behind the team from Eindhoven.

PSV are now trading at a best priced 2.625, so any of you that got on following the original write up, has got a good value bet.If you missed out, I still feel the current quote is still too high and it seems sure to trade an awful lot lower in the coming month or two. PSV restart after the Winter Break with matches against Utrecht, Vitesse, Heracles and de Graaf, three are in the bottom half of the table and even allowing for Vitesse, they have an average placing of 12th in Eredivisie. They is a very comfortable programme in the opening month and fixtures that PSV have averaged 2.42 points per game from in the last decade. During this sequence AZ host Ajax and the Amsterdam giants also travel to Feyenoord,both fixtures where the points have tended to be shared around.

Looking at the longer term fixtures, PSV have already travelled to AZ, Twente and Feyenoord and whilst they still have to visit the Amsterdam Arena in late March, the other three contenders all have to to come to the Philips Stadion, where PSV have yet to taste defeat this season and have lost only twice in the league in 35 months ( 46 starts). All five named players in the original preview are in a settled PSV team now, Matavez, Toivanen and Wijnaldum scored the five goals between them in the 5-1 road win at Heerenveen immediately before the break and incredibly, all five were on the scoresheet in the 6-1 recent thumping of Groningen, so all are clearly contributing to a very strong offensive line up. They look sure to get stronger in the second half of the season, if anyone finishes above them, they will be champions, but it is hard for me to see beyond PSV for the title and if you are not already on and don't object to tying your funds up for several months then I make them a 2 unit bet @ 2.625 general quote, I anticipate that you could trade out for a profit shortly in any case, as you now could with the "original bet".Several players are being actively courted by EPL clubs, namely Erik Pieters, Jetro Willems and Martens, but Willems is only a "baby", Martens only joined in the off season and any moves for them would surely be more likely in the summer and the club have stated ( as they all do) that nobody is for sale.

I would like to discuss the outright betting market in Eredivisie, where I am far from certain that the oddsmakers have the correct favourite. Ajax are circa 2.25 across the board to follow up last year's win, but no team has retained the title since PSV won four in a row between 2004-5 and 2007-08, with AZ , Twente and Ajax winning one each since then, they are and remain the "big 4" and whilst Feyenoord look set for a better season than last campaign's woeful 10th place finish, they have a lot of ground to make up and have not troubled the top three places in over half a decade.

AZ lead the way at present with a four point lead over Twente and PSV, with the favourites a further two points adrift. Therefore, Ajax already have ground to make up on all three and their road form is a real worry, it almost cost them the title last season, especially when a defeat at Den Haag late in the season, left matters out of their own hands. Incredibly, they have now fallen behind in each of their last NINE Eredivisie road starts and there are only so many times that you can play that get out of jail free card ! After the international break, they host the leaders, so at least one of them is going to drop points and follow that up with another home start, when Feyenoord visit the capital. Either side of those matches are two Champions League meetings with Dinamo Zagreb, where six points for Ajax would put them back firmly into contention to qualify, with Lyon and Real Madrid also playing a double header in the next two rounds of games, the Amsterdam giants are far from out of things and they will surely be firmly focused on these upcoming games.

It really is PSV's turn for the title and they spent big in the summer to give themselves the best chance possible to win back the Championship. They spent close to 30m euros in transfer fees to sign Tim Matavz from Groningen, Georginio Wijnaldum of Feyenoord and the Utrech pair of Dries Mertens and Kevin Strootman. Mertens hit the ground running and has scored 11 in just 8 starts, Matavz was a little slower off the mark, as were a number of the new signings, but he also has six goals now and with Ola Toivanen also adding five, it is clear that this group and Wijnaldum scored 14 last season, are going to more than make up for the loss of last season's top scorer Balazs Dzsudzsak , PSV have spent the huge fee they received for him ( and more) wisely and look a much better squad this season IMO.

They are scoring freely with 20 in their last five starts alone and seem very unlikely to get sidetracked much in the Europa League, where one more win with four games to play is likely to take them close to qualification and they will be focused on their next two league starts, where they play two teams against whom they have fantastic records, firstly hosting Utrecht ( 10-0-0 in the last decade) and then traveling to Vitesse where they are 6-4-0, having won on five of their last seven visits. They have already hosted Ajax this season and had to settle for a share of the points in a 2-2 draw, but there were plenty of positives to take from that, they led twice and had good chances to extend their lead and have clearly improved since then. Ajax are unplayable domestically on a real going day, but concede too easily against even the weakest Eredivisie sides and are a little too willing to go toe to toe and shoot it out, sometimes you have to grind out a result. I do not think AZ and Twente have the class of either, or the staying power over 34 matches to win the title this year. I make PSV a narrow favourite and feel that at 3.25 + they are a very solid bet. I cannot put this in red type, as the top quotes are not avaiilable to all ( 3.75 V Chandler/ Blue Square..... 3.50 Corals/ Boyle/ Sky) , if there were similar quotes for big liquidity across the board they would be a maximum ( 2 unit) bet for me.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM MY BOXING DAY NOTES .... WRITTEN EARLY ON 24/12

Full domestic programme in England "today" and I have six matches to discuss......

CHAMPIONSHIP .... NOTTINGHAM FOREST - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

Forest are one of the clubs I want to keep an eye on in the coming month or so, they have been big underachievers this season, they have not won or even scored in five, but their two most recent outings, a 1-0 loss at Brighton where they had the better of the chances and a 0-0 draw at Bristol City, where only the heroics of David James denied then a 2-3 goal victory, hinted that an upturn in fortune was close. They have two home games in a row now, the second is against 5th placed Cardiff City and that is followed by starts against the top two sides in the Championship, Southampton and West Ham, so these are clearly the easiest points on offer for the time being, at least on paper. Confidence appears to remain high and Marcus Tudgay has talked this week about that and other players about how they are so much more solid at the back and just lacking a goal or two and it is not like they are not creating chances. This is a very big game for them and boss Steve Cotterill, however, for this game, unless Joel Lynch recovers it will mean probably playing returning defensive midfielder Guy Moussi in central defence, that is far from ideal, but Moussi has filled in there before successfully. Cotterill is well used to these type of problems from his time at Portsmouth and will certainly not be too fazed by the situation.

Posh also have problems and said earlier in the week they would be without three key players with striker Lee Tomlin having joined Grant McCann and Mark Little on the sidelines, however, it is now claimed that Tomlin might be available. They always look stronger when he plays, so I understand why they would give him every opportunity to prove his fitness, but with so many games on the horizon, it could prove to be the wrong decision to rush him back. I do think that Forest will come good very soon and with Posh only having beaten hapless Coventry in six starts and with just four wins from 34 away games at this level, today might well be the day. If Lynch makes the starting line up and /or Tomlin misses out, I would be even more keen, for now, just a flat stake .... Nottingham Forest -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line.

LEAGUE 1 ...... HUDDERSFIELD TOWN- CHESTERFIELD

Just one cleansheet in six for Town, who have struggled since losing that incredle unbeaten record recently. However, striker Jordan Rhodes remains on fire and notched all four goals in the 4-4 draw at Hillsborough last saturday. He must feel that the schedulers have given him a Christmas present with the holiday trip to the B2net Stadium, as the Spirites have conceded 22 goals in their last ten starts and not kept a clean sheet since boss John Sheridan was wearing short trousers to school. We discussed the hosts ahead of their game with Walsall last week, which ended 1-1, they created a lot of chances 19, including nine on target, but took too long ( over an hour) to get back into the game after falling behind in the first half. Having just got striker Jack Lester back, they are going to lose him for three games on a violent conduct charge. Even without Lester, I would not rush to take the understandably low odds on the hosts, but I do think there will be goals and Rhodes has far too much pace and energy for Neal Trotman at the heart of the visiting defence and the Terriers know him well from a lengthy loan spell at the club, two seasons ago. Field have leaked an average of 2.6 per goals per game on the road and the "over" could be landed by Rhodes on his own, even without Lester the visitors do have goals in them and have scored in their last 12 road starts, notching at least two in half ( six) of those. Given that Town have also been leaking recently a 3-2 ( odds 34.0) or 4-2 ( odds 51.0) home win is far from impossible and 5.0 + for the visitors to score over 1.5 goals is a tempting pick at juicy odds and something they have already done at Notts County and MK Dons, teams with similar home records to Huddersfield and they also scored one at both of the top two Charlton and Wednesday, at Hillsborough, it should have been three ! Town are worried about their defence and tried to get Jamie McCombe recalled from Preston where he is on loan, but with no recall clause in the deal, it was refused . However, I will keep things simple and opt for 1.5 units "Over" 2.75 goals 1.93 asian line.

Good Luck.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS !

I know that not all of you celebrate Christmas, but most of you will have some extra free time with your family, or loved ones, over the next few days.

Make the most of it, enjoy yourselves and have a happy and peaceful time.

Good Luck.

CHRISTMAS EVE FIXTURES .....

Inverness CT and Aberdeen meet in the "North East" derby game, a fixture traditionally dominated by the visitors, the Dons come into the match on the back of two wins and with it a degree of mid table safety, but will surely be looking for the hat-trick, ahead of a pair of tough looking New Year fixtures. They are 7-2-1 in their last ten visits, matches which have averaged 2.7 goals, with the last six all producing at least two and this one seems likely to follow suit, with ICT being involved in some recent high scoring encounters. They have scored in 7 of their last 8, only coming up short against Celtic in a match where they were holding their own, before a red card, meant they had to play the final 55 + minutes with ten men. Terry Butcher's side have not had much luck or decisions go their way ( see the Rangers write up below), but are prepared to take the game to opponents and their last four and 6 from 7, have all gone "over". They seem unlikely to sit back today, they are without a key defensive player in Chris Hogg and are already without an option or two at the back, they have not kept a cleansheet in 21 starts and will probably need two goals to get a result this afternoon. Aberdeen have just one clean sheet themselves in nine starts and that came against a poor Hibs side, who had the better of the game and chances. Weather should not be a concern, goals for me and the odds look good. "Over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line.

St Mirren and Glasgow Rangers meet in the televised fixture and this seems sure to be a tough, close, hard fough affair. Saints nine home games have only seen 18 goals in total and three of their four losses, have come by the miminum margin. Rangers will be ultra keen to win this and go into Wednesday's Old Firm derby holding at least the four point advantage over Celtic they currently enjoy. They will also be looking to conserve as much energy as possible and I do not see them needlessly chasing a second goal if and when they take the lead. Rangers have won on eight of their last ten visits here, with five also coming by the single goal margin and that is what I think is the likely outcome again today. Both teams have lost their way a little recently and any wins that have come the way of the league leaders, have been hard earned, like their 2-1 win over ICT at Ibrox last time out, when the visitors took the game to Rangers laying siege to the home goal in the second half and being denied two big penalty shouts.

Three of Rangers last five victories have come by a single goal, in their last 12 starts they have only scored more than two goals on one one occasion and they have conceded in six of their last nine starts, fixtures which came against teams with an average league placing of 8th ( in a 12 team league). They are trying to address this lack of goals and are set to get busy in the transfer window. Saints will be without Jim Goodwin and Lee Mairs today, which are big losses, but they have a couple of players, especially youngster Kenny McLean who will be looking to impress ahead of the window, infront of the tv cameras and they will be very motivated today. The two clubs played out a 1-1 draw at Ibrox two months ago and this should again be close, my suggestion would be Rangers to win by one goal @ circa 3.50.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ...

Rather surprisingly, away day's at Craven Cottage have been Manchester United's nemesis in recent seasons and given the Red's ongoing defensive woes, which we have touched upon many times, I can see that sequence continuing this evening.

United have taken just one point from their last three visits, with Fulham scoring in eight of the last ten visits, at least two in the last three, including a 3-0 win here in the pre Christmas fixture two seasons ago, to be precise, two years and two days ago. There is still not too much protection for the United backline and the hosts will doubtless take the game to the visitors, as they normally do when the "bigger" clubs come calling, with far too many of the other "minnows" adopting a much too cautious approach. They fought back from 2-0 down to claim a share of the spoils with Manchester City, a result all the more noteworthy, as they were struggling a little at that time, since when, they have beaten Liverpool and taken a point at the Emirates. The only blip verses top six teams, came against Tottenham, with Happy Harry's inform team winning 3-1 here in West London. That result was very unfair to Fulham, they created 26 attempts on goal, including a massive 20 on target, I lost count of the number of times Brad Friedel saved his team that day and the third goal and decisive goal came in the 96th minute, a reverse of the scoreline would have been a truer reflection of the game. So, we can see that the home side tend to show their best against the best and of course, United fall into that category. Both teams arrive on the back of easy weekend wins and in good form, but I still think that United have to get very busy in the transfer window, if they are to claim yet another EPL title. They have only kept consecutive clean sheets in that mini sequence following the horror show 6-1 home loss to City and the only "strong" team they met then was Everton, who were very wasteful. In my opinion they have over achieved in the EPL this season, probably having at least five more points than they should have and which their performances have merited. Bobby Zamora is set to return to the home line up and I have to take Fulham and the draw. Fulham +0.5 ball 2.20 + asian line.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

In the EPL, all eyes will be on Ewood Park and the relegation six pointer ( or is it more), between local rivals Blackburn Rovers and Bolton Wanderers, hard to see where the loser will go from here, for Rovers boss Steve Kean it will definitely be the job centre and the protesters will be out in force tonight at the first sign of things going wrong. That hardly helps anyone, apart from the visitors, but that is what Rovers have to deal with at the moment, Kean's days have been numbered for months now and the decision should have long since been taken. Wanderers have lost five in a row since putting five past Stoke and were poor at Fulham over the weekend when the two goal margin of defeat, could easily have been doubled, they are very vunerable from crosses and we should see Rovers giant defender Christopher Samba up at every opportunity and they have conceded an average of 2.375 goals per game. Rovers are without a cleansheet in 19 EPL starts and we discussed them ( below) ahead of the 2-1 home defeat to WBA on saturday, they are very gung-ho because they have to be and are very dependent on the aforementioned Samba at the back. Problem for me, is that Samba and his Bolton counterpart Gary Cahill both seem highly likely to be off in the transfer window and whilst it should not stop them from performing, it will surely be at the back of their mind, that they could miss out on a career defining move, by picking up an injury in the next fortnight. Anyway, it is very hard not to see goals again tonight and whilst both will be anxious early, the first goal and it shouldn't be too long coming with these two, is going to throw this wide open. Wanderers have won big at both Wigan ( 3-1) and QPR ( 4-0) , in addition to the victory at Stoke and I feel they are the better team, but they have not won, or been involved in what I would call a "battle" and that is what it will definitely be tonight and looked short of a true leader on the pitch at Craven Cottage, with even Kevin Davies "hiding". There is only one real option, both teams will score and it is "over" for me. 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.98 asian line. If you wanted a small interest at a big price, 7.0 + for Wanderers to score over 2.5 goals is an option, they have already done it twice on the road and Rovers have conceded three to Arsenal, Newcastle, Norwich and Wigan.

Good Luck.

written SATURDAY 17/12

At Ewood Park, I have to go for goals again in the Blackburn Rovers- West Bromwich Albion game, we have collected twice in recent Rovers starts and goals are a regular feature for them, with 7 of their last 8 going "over" and both teams on the scoresheet in 8 of their last 9 starts. Their last 14 matches have seen nine go over the 3.5 goal line, with five of those producing at least six goals, which is incredible. They have beaten Swansea 4-2 , Arsenal 4-3 and Newcastle 4-3 ( AET) at home and posted two 3-3 draws on the road at Norwich and Wigan.

Albion look to be regressing to pre Roy Hodgson defensive woes and are without a cleansheet in seven, they are another team who seem happier in their travels, where they are more expansive and appear to play with less pressure. Rovers took the lead at Sunderland last week and were denied another "good" goal when leading, before defending too deep and conceding two heartbreaking late goals. They will not make that mistake today and it is hard not to see both going toe to toe and another shoot out. 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.02 asian line

UPDATE .....

I have had a very, very strange month, with some unbelievably good ideas and big priced suggestions, like circa 17.5 the "over" 5.5 goals in the Dinamo - Lyon game ( see 7-8 posts below), the 5.0 Preston to win yesterday ( post directly below) and I have just started today with another, having put up Real Betis + 1 ball 1.91 as my main bet, but also writing ...... If Betis can keep the game and crowd quiet early and then show the same attacking intent as on display in their last road game, a "shock" away win could be on the cards.

Betis won 2-0 with two second half goals, despite ending the match with ten men and traded at circa 6.80 on the exchanges and 6.0 pretty much across the board.

I say that it has been a "strange month" as my main "red type" selections have not performed so well, but I do not run a tipping service, I preview a number of events and matches and it is for the reader to match up what they read, with their own thoughts and incorporate them into their personal betting portfolio. There is a huge amount of valuable information contained within my daily notes and if you get to see a copy, even only occasionally, you should read them fully to get the most out of them. Most of my readers do not need to be spoon fed and use them as they are designed, which is as a betting aid.

I would love to subscribe to my own service, or ideally, three or four just like it ( but there aren't any IMO), that would certainly make my job so much easier.

I write about a lot of leagues and sports, too many some would say " you cannot be an expert in all of them ", well, I don't claim to be an "expert" in any, just that for over 20 years I have made a profit in all of them and you can view five years of proofed stats here ( LINK) and if you see any leaks or weak spots, then you really need to book an eye test.

Actually, upon reflection, my ego has got the better of me and I have to say that I probably would consider myself an "expert" in several sports/ leagues, just probably not the obvious ones.

Brentford threw away two points yesterday btw, 1-0 up against ten men who had only created one goalscoring chance in 80 minutes with eleven players, the Bees were perhaps a little too negative and happy to try and hold on to what they had, although to be fair, the Bury keeper made a fantastic save to keep his team in the match just before the equaliser. I would have liked the extra points to take into a difficult sequence of New Year fixtures, but the Bees are a work in progress and can only get better IMO.

I might put one more preview on here later today, lets see how the Ligue 1 match goes first !

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

In Ligue 1, Rennes travel to Ajaccio and simply have to win to keep pace with clubs battling for a Champions League spot, as discussed before, a long awaited camapign in europe's premier competition, is the be all and end all of their season and all their eggs are in this particular basket.

The visitors come into the game having collected just one point from their last two starts, in both of which they paid the price for a very sluggish start and they have done everything possible to prepare fully for today and are looking to come firing out of the blocks. They took a 25 man party to Madrid in midweek (see below) for the Europa League game with Atletico, which was a friendly", they then stayed in the city and trained on Friday, before flying directly to Corsica.

They are 5-0-4 on the road and only leaders Montpellier have scored more away goals, a win would take them into 5th and perhaps more importantly to potentially within 5 points of the summit. The current top 3 all face road games on Tuesday/ Wednesday, when Rennes have a very win-able home tie, so three points today could see them in a strong position entering the mini winter break. Hosts are already booked for a swift return to Ligue 2 and reading some comments on their website, are kind of focused on a run in the cup, they were said to be devastated by conceding a very late goal at Nancy last week and added that the single point felt like another loss and was proving tough to get out of the system.

Big boost for Rennes with the return to the squad of Onyekachi Apam, he had not played in 18 months since completing a 4m euros transfer from Nice, following major surgery. He was signed to build a young defence around and his return to action, is like having a new big money signing.

1.5 units Rennes -0.75 ball 2.00 + asian line

Keepers: Costil, Diallo, Ndiaye Defenders: Mavinga, Apam, Mangane, Kana-Biyik, Jebbour, John Boye, Danzé, Foulquier, Theophile Catherine
Midfield: Tettey, Feret, Mandjeck, Brahimi, Pajot, Doumbia, M'Vila
Attackers: Pitroipa, Kembo, Boukari, Hadji, Montaño, Diarra

Back later.

PHIL BROWN ..... AVAILABLE FOR SINGING ENGAGEMENTS ANYWHERE !

SATURDAY DECEMBER 17TH

There is quite a lot to get through today, so let's start in League 1 and the televised match between MK Dons and Preston North End. New North End Chairman Peter Ridsdale only took eight days to get rid of Phil Brown and I am sure the decision was already taken before he took charge of the club on December 6th. The hugely experienced pairing of Graham Alexander and David Unsworth will take charge of team affairs whilst a replacement ( Billy Davies ?) is sought. I think Brown was a little unlucky, he got Preston really buzzing and set up to play a certain way and the 4-3-3 formation was working incredibly well, before he lost all three front players at the same time and for extended periods. however, he spent too long trying to stick with his game plan, when he clearly didn't have the personnel to do so and paid the price, when results nosedived. If you had said to me ten weeks ago that PNE would be available at circa 5.0 to beat any third tier team this season, firstly I would have laughed and secondly I would have made it my bet of the season, however, like in politics one week, let alone ten, is a long time in football and that day has arrived and I hesitate to pull the trigger. I am sure that the new coach when he arrives, especially if he can keep both Mellor and Hume at the club, will oversee a big upturn in fortunes, but there is no "new coach effect" today, having said that, the mood at the club seems likely to have lifted, despite one or two senior players speaking up for Brown this week, they are the more vocal players and I suspect the silent majority are probably relieved.

Dons are very strong at home, where they are unbeaten and their high possession style of play is well suited to the big playing surface, something we have discussed on several occasions.They have quite a few knocks today a couple have been openly discussed, but boss Karl Robinson has admitted there are a couple more, but he doesn't want to disclose the players concerned.

I will probably play a minimal stake on Preston at circa 5.0, as I couldn't handle it if they won unbacked at that price and IMO, any stake lost on them today is only loaned, as there will be money to be made on North End in the next month or two. There is a good chance that we will see Neil Mellor and Iain Hume from the start today, Hume played 45 minutes last week on his comeback, so I see no reason why he will not be available for 75 + today and if the pair have a going day, they can give Dons plenty to think about.

Elsewhere in the third tier, the Chesterfield board gave a big vote of confidence to boss John Sheridan this week, it seemed a little more than the normally dreaded vote and in it they detailed that funds would be provided to strengthen in the transfer window. That is good news for Sheridan and the supporters, but it doesn't really ease the pressure today, when Walsall are the visitors. The Spirites go to Huddersfield on Boxing Day and failure to win today is going to leave them cast adrift at the foot of the table, with a mountain to climb in the New Year, they need three points and soon. It is certainly not going to get much easier than today, the Saddlers are still reeling from an extra time defeat on home soil to Dagenham, who are 92nd of 92 clubs in the Football League in midweek and that was an expensive loss as it came along with injuries to three players and with Ryan Jarvis still suspended, the visitors are short of options today.

Hosts have lost Leon Clarke, who has returned to Swindon Town after completion of his three month loan, but the prolific Jack Lester looks set to be available to play some part today, even if it is from off the bench. Chesterfield do have goals in them and get forward very quickly, but defensively have struggled all season. However, this is kind of their season on the line, it is their last home start of 2011 and they desperately need the points, they are facing a tired opponent, who might be forced to play a youth team player in the key central defensive role and one who arrive at a similar low ebb confidence wise. There was plenty to like about Chesterfield's unlucky loss at Wycombe last week and in recenty starts against Preston and Sheffield United, I take them to claim a much needed three points. Chesterfield -0.5 ball 2.25 + general quote.

I have a further "red type " selection at odds of 3.50 and two strong ( 1.5 unit picks) in the EPL, both at odds against and also a speculative suggested bet at odds of over 21-1 ( trying to pay for Christmas and New Year in one fell swoop) that I feel has a real chance of success. However, I will not be able any of those on the blog today, but will probably return with a pick or two tomorrow, so please check back.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ... TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

Next up is the relegation six pointer between Istres and Amiens, where I am keen on the hosts. Istres meet two teams immediately below them in the table before the winter break and if they don't manage to win at least one of them, are very likely to spend Christmas in the drop zone. I think that will come tonight, home coach José Pasqualetti is very focused on this game and in getting those so valuable three points, his team have stopped the defensive rot ( only Monaco have conceded more goals) with a pair of draws in the league, those results were sandwiched inbetween two cups wins, where they managed nine unanswered goals, they may have come against lower league opposition, but were huge confidence boosting fixtures. In the last of those, they notched six and all three strikers contributed, a hat trick for young Nicolas de Preville and three between Nassim Akrour and Sid Ali Yahia-Cherif their hugely experienced Algerian pair. All three are in the squad and will be salivating at the prospect of facing this goal shy Amiens side ( just 12 all season, a third of which came in one game a shock 4-0 defeat of Chateauroux and we have seen nothing like that, before or since !), especially since they are without Paul, Lybohy and Cisse, the first two would be the first names on the team sheet and Cisse is seen as cover for Lybohy and this is going to leave them severely weakened at the back.

This problem is compounded tonight, as there has been a huge amount of rain in the Amiens area and the club have been unable to train or prepare for this match on grass, with all work done on a synthetic surface. All the advantages are with Istres and on what I have seen ( both teams twice in full and highlights of other fixtures), they are the better team anyway and certainly the one with more offensive threat and I take them to win. 1.5 points Istres -0.5 goal 2.14 +asian line.

Good Luck.