Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Osasuna found a late, late winner at home to Betis on Sunday. After dominating much of the first half they went into the break ahead 1-0, but then seemed content to sit on their lead and invited the visitors to take the intiative. Real equalised and spurned a couple of good chances to edge ahead with the hosts defending far too deep, before Osasuna found that dramatic late winner. It was fortunate, but we were due a late goal our way and I will try to remember this match the next time things go against me/us ! Only joking ! Of course, I won't recall this game, it is only the bad beats that gamblers remember !
I am coming off a VERY good week, with some good priced winners and a huge ROI in the last seven days and I am particularly proud of the two NFL winners over the weekend. Many people think that football is my best sport and that is true I suppose, it is my bread and butter and you can see how consistent I have been across all markets on here over the last five years + of posting on the blog. LINK.
However, my best returns, albeit from far fewer bets of course, come from the NFL, WTA and USPGA tours. My strike rate on american football over the last 15 years or so is staggering to be honest. Anyway, I digress, there is kind of a moral to this story.
Every August, once the UK domestic football season has, or is about to start, I turn my attention to the NFL and spend all my "spare" time for two or three weeks focused on that sport. I watch a little pre season, re read my notes from the previous year and watch highlights, read everything I can about what has happened during the off season . This year I did not have time and the situation was further complicated by the "lock out". I told myself that I had a good handle on things and that I would pick everything else up through the opening week or two.
Well, that didn't work out and I was angry with myself, not that I hadn't done the work, I seriously didn't have the time, but because I had tried to bet without doing my homework. I did not back a lot of losers, but they came in a sport where I normally win and the difference between, three or four losers, as opposed to the same number of winners is big at the end of the season. So I stopped for a few weeks, it was tough because I love the games so much, but over those weeks I watched around 40-50 hours of highlights from the opening weeks and worked really hard. What happened ? I returned to NFL betting on Thanksgiving Day and went three from three and have an 83% strike rate since that day, of course, that is a short sample, but it is not a coincidence. There are no shorts cuts in doing this ( sports betting), it is a job like any other, but hard work is almost always rewarded and as the saying goes, "the harder I work, the luckier I get".
Looking at those 5-6 years of stats I linked to earlier, you will see through the first two years I posted circa 1,000 units on the blog, around 500 through the next two and 225 units in 2010. Returns were fantastic over all five years, in 2012 I am probably going to break even from an even lower turnover.
I think it is worthwhile talking about this. With far fewer bets, I will probably have posted just 12% of my turnover from 2007 come the end of this month, variance is always likely to raise it's ugly head. Therefore, whereas four years ago I was posting virtually all of my selections on here, now it is just one in eight or nine and NEVER my strongest picks.
Over the long term and I am talking months and months, not weeks, that shouldn't make a huge amount of difference and I still feel that there is a lot to take from each preview posted. But with regard to results, it is kind of pot luck, I might put up eight selections over the weekend, seven could win, but the one I post on here lose, of course, the exact opposite could also be true.
My personal turnover is little changed from 2007, the only difference is the number of these matches/ events posted on the blog and the reasons behind this have been well documented previously.
I have previewed four matches in my daily notes today, two from the Champions League and a couple from the UK domestic football, with three red type selections and sent out copies to many of you this morning. Therefore, I will not be posting any on the blog today, but will definitely put a couple up before the end of the week. So please check back.