WEDNESDAY #3

TUESDAY JANUARY 3RD

It looked for long time that we were going to go three from three yesterday, Bradford City had the better of the first half, but conceded three in eleven minutes midway through the second, two were errors from the goalkeeper and one a wrongly awarded penalty.

Not a lot of matches today, but all very interesting.

Going to start with a few words about the Copa del Rey fixture between Real Madrid and Malaga, both clubs have named their strongest available squads for this first leg, with the return match scheduled for the middle of next week. Hosts had not taken this competition seriously in recent seasons, twice losing to lower league opposition, but last year made it to the final, where they defeated Barcelona. This time round, they are looking for the La Liga/ Champions League double and I suspect the domestic cup competition will once again take a back seat, that is not to say that they cannot win, just that later in the campaign it is going to be more of an inconvenience. Today, I guess it will be viewed as a nice warm up for the weekend league fixture.

Real have tended to start slowly after the mini mid winter break, easing past Getafe by the odd goal in five and losing a meaningless match at Levante 2-0 last season and drawing 0-0 at Osasuna in 2010, when they were already out of the cup. Big spending Malaga will probably be up for this, especially RVN returning to the Bernabeu ( he will be pleased to see that Carvalho is missing) and Santi Carzorla looking to retain his place in the national team and this is a great opportunity to impress Vicente del Bosque. If this game was in Malaga, I would be very keen to side with Los Boquerones and even in the capital, admit to being tempted by the huge looking 2.5 goal handicap start for the visitors. A few too many unknown factors here, think I will watch the opening exchanges and if Real look a little lethargic, I will take a little on Malaga, if forced to choose now, it would have to be them at odds against ( 2.08) getting 2.5 goals, they tend to find a goal on their travels and that would leave Real needing at least four to cover, which normally would not be too much of a problem, but they might need this outing to shake the Christmas cobwebs away.

MALAGA
Goalkeepers: Caballero, Ruben
Defenders: Jesus Gamez, Demichelis, Mathijsen, Monreal, Eliseu, Sergio Sanchez
Midfielders: Camacho, Toulalan, Apoño, Cazorla, Isco, Duda, Buonanotte
Forwards: Van Nistelrooy, Sebastian Fernandez, Rondon, Juanmi

REAL MADRID

Goalkeepers: Casillas, Adan, Mejias

Defenders: Arbeloa, Coentrao, Marcelo, Pepe, Varane, Albiol

Midfielders: Lass, Khedira, Granero, Sahin, Xabi Alonso, Ozil, Callejon, Altintop, Kaka

Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuain

In the EPL, WBA have a lot of problems today, but that has already been factored into the very low odds for Tottenham, so no bet there for us.

I am keen on goals in the Wigan-Sunderland match. Somehow the makeshift Sunderland rearguard held on against Manchester City, they only had one regular starting defender on the pitch at the end and were forced to work incredibly hard to keep pace with the league leaders who created 25 attempts on goal and battered the Black Cats in the second period. That must have left them drained and the 24 hours less recovery time, will have done them few favours with this quick turnaround between matches, Wigan having played a day earlier at Stoke City where they somehow found a late equaliser despite being down to ten men, with defender Gary Caldwell being sent off and he is suspended today. Wigan are looking to do the double, having won very fortunately at the Stadium of Light in November, three points would take them out of the drop zone, ahead of a visit from Manchester City, so would be very valuable. The visitors will be out for revenge and incredibly a win for them could take them into the top ten, if they had not found that late, late winner at home to Blackburn Rovers in Martin O'Neill's first game in charge they would have been in the drop zone and the turnaround in just 23 days has been remarkable. Wigan are very gung-ho at times , especially at the DW Stadium and there will be plenty of space for both to exploit and plenty of tired legs late in the game, when this will get very stretched. "Over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line.

In the Championship, I like Bristol City at home to Millwall, key here for me is Darius Henderson missing from the visiting line up, the Lions have won six matches this season and Henderson has scored in five of those, he is very much their main target man, so much play goes through him and it all breaks down in his absence. We discussed City's huge improvement under Derek McInnes earlier in his reign ( see below). That improvement continues and they recently ended Southampton's long unbeaten home run, they won at the New Den in the next match after the Burnley preview ( where they also won 3-1) and have continued to play well, without getting their due reward at times. This might be the last time we see Maynard and Adomah together at City and they will surely want to sign off with a win, hosts have had 24 hours longer recovery time, following that Friday night game at St Mary's. Wall arrive in low confidence after a saturday derby loss to Crystal Palace and without their big target man , I have to oppose them. Bristol City -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line.

Good Luck.

BRISTOL CITY - BURNLEY ( NOV 5th)

I was very impressed with the Robins performance at West Ham in midweek and travelling fans were buoyant with that and the display at Barnsley last weekend, now they really need one in front of their home supporters, especially ahead of the international break, which will be followed by a tough trip to Millwall and visit from leaders Southampton. If new boss Derek McInnes can go into the break with another win, it will give them three positive results to feed off for a fortnight and the juggernaut will be well and truly on the move .

I told you on wednesday about the Albert Adomah and Nicky Maynard partnership and this pair will give most Championship defences problems and should definitely be up to scoring against a Burnley side with just one clean sheet in 18 starts this season, which came against a Millwall side in freefall at that time. Defensively, City already look a different side under their scottish boss and he has been busy today, signing Stephen Pearson, a midfielder he knows well from their time in the SPL from Derby County. He has also named his own assistant, Gary Owers replacing Steve Wigley and allowed two other players to leave on loan, he has made a huge impact at the club in a very short space of time. The team have already made more sound tactical changes in two games than Millen made in his last two months and even the fringe players have upped their game, with a strong reverse side running in five against Southampton this midweek, increasing competition for places.Bristol City level ball 1.94 + asian line

WEDNESDAY #2

MONDAY JANUARY 2ND

Three selections today and I am going to keep comments fairly brief.

I was interested in Plymouth Argyle, who did us a favour at Aldershot Town ( perhaps a little fortunately) on Saturday, but the combination of long trip over the weekend and poor asian quote, or at least one I am not keen on ( +0.25 ball 1.72), is enough to make me swerve this one, having said that, if there is some 1.90 + available to you off level ball against Torquay United, then that would be far more appealing.

In the EPL, we have done well recently with Blackburn Rovers and they will surely be looking to follow up their amazing win at Old Trafford, with three points on home soil, but we can still not trust them defensively, they have conceded two or more in eight of their last nine starts and the other was at Anfield, where they could have allowed any number if Liverpool had been more ruthless and goodness knows how many this number would have been if Chris Samba had not been available, I have lost count of the number of times he has made last ditch blocks recently. He is being chased by several of the very top clubs and there is always the concern that injury will be at the back of his mind today, with the transfer window now open. Stoke City have been a little better on their travels this season, but still lost 13 EPL starts on the road in 2011, however, they have a solid record here and Samba will be working overtime from long balls into the box, both will almost certainly score IMO and "over" at odds against is far too tempting for me to avoid. 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line.

Onto the Championship and the Yorkshire derby game between Doncaster Rovers and Barnsley , hosts are still bottom of the table, but recent performaces have been so much better than results might suggest and they could easily have got something from road trips to Burnley and Watford both of which they lost by three goals ! They are certainly stronger at the Keepmoat, as wins over Leicester city and Southampton indicate, they lose Goulon after his red card, but have a natural replacement in Stock returning from suspension.They are very strong in the centre of the pitch and with Barnsley missing the hugely influential Butterfield, Drinkwater and Addison, this gives them a huge advantage in midfield for this game. The visitors are coming off a huge 4-1 defeat of Leeds, but United are really struggling and the Tykes always up their game against them. Dean Saunders has brought some classy individuals into the Rovers squad, almost all proven at a much higher level and really used his many contacts in the game. They have reduced ticket prices today and are hoping for a big crowd to take them off the foot of the table.Doncaster Rovers -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line.

I have been monitoring Phil Parkinson at Bradford City, after being flavour of the month a couple of seasons back, Parky has slipped back down the managerial ladder and this is probably his last big club and City are a "big" club at this level, unless he has some success. He has gone back to basics and is looking to build a big strong team at City, much like his Colchester United team of giants, based around a huge defence. Slowly things have come together and they have won three straight, with a 7-1 goal difference, which included defeats of Southend and Shrewsbury, two of the better teams in the division. The only goal conceded in that sequence, came when they were three up and reduced to ten men on saturday, following David Syers dismissal, but they are appealing that and he is available today, they have also signed another big solid defender in Charlie Taylor from Leeds, who I understand is well thought of and poses a big offensive threat too, as a good crosser of the ball. He will get plenty of experience alongside players of the quality of Andrew Davies on loan from Stoke city, who is way too good for this level. I read this about City from a scepical source last week " This powerful no nonsense defensive unit with attitude is already having a beneficial impact on the rest of the team.There will be no lazy passengers playing in this team." that Parkinson has chosen to further strengthen his rearguard is eyecatching under those circumstances and they are a side to follow in early 2012. Hosts Rotherham are struggling and boss Andy Scott is not popular with supporters, personality wise Scott is a bit of a cold fish and fans simply do not warm to him, this does him few favours when things start to go wrong. They will be without keeper Conrad Logan today who has gone back to Leicester and his 35 yo replacement has not played in three months, two other key defenders are out ( Branston cannot play against his parent club) and I have to take the visitors, plus the draw. 1.5 units Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY # 1

JANUARY 1ST 2012

Three match previews to start the New Year, two afternoon kickoffs in the Conference and the late NFL game, the very last of the regular season.

I am keen on all three bets and all were close to being maximum stake selections. Next email will be at the usual time on Monday, when we have an almost full round of Football League and five EPL matches to enjoy.

CONFERENCE NATIONAL :

SOUTHPORT - FLEETWOOD TOWN

These are the return fixtures of matches played on Boxing Day. These two played out an incident packed 2-2 draw at Highbury Stadium, where Town forced a late equaliser courtesy of the prolific Richard Brodie, despite playing 35 minutes with ten men, after Jamie McGuire was sent off, he is suspended for today's fixture. That would be a significant loss for most teams, but Fleet are a very well financed club and have an incredible 33 registered players, including former Manchester United player Danny Rose, who signed earlier this week, choosing Town ahead of Crystal Palace who were very interested in him, Rose goes straight into the squad and is a direct replacement for McGuire. Back in their BSS days we talked about Fleetwood and how they had funds that other clubs could only dream about, planning a £5m stadium upgrade and £250k on improving the playing surface, to say nothing on the investment in players. They have a dream FA Cup tie against Blackpool next week, who are the nearest "big" club and the one manager Micky Mellon made his name as a player at, so that will be a distraction of sorts and enough for me to scale down my stakes slightly, but it is promotion to the Football League that is the target this season and to those ends, this game is MASSIVE. Three points would keep them, at worse, within two of leaders Wrexham and effectively take Southport and the rest of the chasing pack out of the equation ( 9 points and a game in hand), at least for the time being.

Town missed out on promotion in the playoffs last season, losing to AFC Wimbledon in the semi-finals and are, as you might expect, keen to avoid that lottery this time round. They are more comfortable on the road, having already posted ten wins away from Highbury, in addition to a second round FA Cup win at League 1 side Yeovil Town and have actually won 9 of their last ten ( one draw) away starts in the Conference. In all league starts, home and away, they have averaged 2.5 goals per game and it is hardly surprising given their financial clout, as they can attract players like Brodie for whom they paid a significant five figure sum, just to take on a season long loan deal. Most of the others have either huge Football League experience or know how to get out of the Conference and all that knowledge makes for a very well balanced squad, which should go close to claiming the title. They are also full time and especially at this time of year, that gives them an advantage over part time squads like Southport, who were forced to fit in a Thursday night training session, the only time the players met inbetween the two matches. Fleetwood dominated the second half on Monday even with ten men and I expect them to come out on top today. 1.5 units Fleetwood Town -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line.

HAYES & YEADING - EBBSFLEET UNITED

I have just watched 20 minutes of extended highlights from the first meeting, which Fleet won 3-1, that was perhaps a little harsh on Hayes IMO, who created chances of their own, especially in the first hour when the game was still in the balance. They had a lot of joy down both flanks and the wide players were able to cut inside with some ease, number 10 Luke Williams, whom I had not seen before, is apparently attracting scouts on a regular basis and it was easy to see why, as he ran United ragged at times. With the FL transfer window opening again this week, I am sure that he will be out to impress today. To be honest, both defences were pretty dire and more like BSS standard ( on a poor day !) and it is difficult to see either keeping a cleansheet anytime soon and with the last three h2h meetings all producing at least four goals and Hayes last ten starts averaging 4.2 per game, with 8 going "over" and Ebbsfleet's last 10 averaging 3.7 and 6 from 8 "over", I have to take this to follow suit. A point a piece is not really going to help either too much, especially the home side, who would probably remain in the drop zone with a draw and who then start the New Year with two road fixtures. I take this one to carry on in a similar vein to Boxing Day, first goal will blow this wide open and it will not be long in coming . 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.85 asian line.

NFL : DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

This is a playoff game in everything in name, as the winner will take the NFC East title and the loser eliminated from the post season picture. With the title will come a home playoff game against either Detroit or Atlanta and that is a very win-able match up, so a huge incentive to win this. The pair met in Dallas three weeks ago, the Cowboys held a 34-22 with a little over three minutes remaining, but Eli Manning led the Giants to two touchdowns and a famous 37-34 win. Both Manning ( 400 yards) and his counterpart Tony Romo ( 321 yards and four touchdowns) had massive days in that earlier meeting, both seem likely to face each other again tonight, but Romo has been touch and go all week, after badly bruising his hand last week and he definitely would not have been risked if this was a "normal" regular season game. Advantage number one to the Giants.

The second is the momentum they took from that win in Texas and they are definitely the mentally tougher of the two teams IMO, I could not see the Cowboys mounting a similar comeback here in New Jersey. The Giants defense was a little beat up ahead of that game two and was without key safety Kenny Phillips, a situation that Romo was able to exploit, now with Phillips back and he has an interception in each of the last two weeks and Romo's limited arm, it is another big swing in the Giants favour and advantage number three.

They are further boosted by the likely return of Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora, he has trained this week after missing the last month and with the Cowboys offensive line being forced into changes, everything appears to be going New York's way. Big chink in their armoury has been an inability to run the ball much, but in Dallas, Brandon Jacobs ran for 101 yards and two touchdowns, so even that is a positive and will keep the Cowboys "honest" and not just watching Manning and his team of receivers. I just cannot see beyond the Giants here. 1.5 units New York -3 points 1.95 Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY ......WATCHING PARKY ....

I have been monitoring Phil Parkinson at Bradford City recently, after being flavour of the month a couple of seasons back, Parky has slipped back down the managerial ladder and this is probably his last big club and City are a "big" club at this level, unless he has some success. He has gone back to basics and is looking to build a big strong team at City, much like his Colchester United team of giants, based around a huge defence. Slowly and bit by bit things have started to come together and they have won three straight, with a 7-1 goal difference, which included defeats of Southend and Shrewsbury, two of the better teams in the division. The only goal conceded in that sequence, came when they were three up and reduced to ten men on saturday, following David Syers dismissal, but they are appealing that and he is available today, they have also signed another big solid defender in Charlie Taylor from Leeds, whom I understand is well thought of and poses a big offensive threat too, as a good crosser of the ball. He will get plenty of experience alongside players of the quality of Andrew Davies on loan from Stoke city, who is way too good for this level. I read this about City from a fairly scepical source last week " This powerful no nonsense defensive unit with attitude is already having a beneficial impact on the rest of the team.There will be no lazy passengers playing in this team." that Parkinson has chosen to further strengthen his rearguard is eyecatching under the circumstances and they are a side to follow in early 2012. Hosts Rotherham are struggling and boss Andy Scott is not popular with supporters, personality wise Scott is a bit of a cold fish and fans simply do not warm to him, this does him few favours when things start to go wrong. They will be without keeper Conrad Logan today who has gone back to Leicester and his 35 yo replacement has not played in three months, two other key defenders are out ( Branston cannot play against his parent club) and I have to take the visitors, plus the draw. Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

GREAT EXPECTATIONS ...... WITH LONG TERM BETS

A fairly quiet day on the sporting front today, but I did discuss two long term events in my daily notes , one of which can be read lower down the page. I have also found a fantastic maximum stake bet at odds of 6.0 which I believe offers fantastic value. I have a good record with these big odds "maximum" stake bets, the only four decided in the second half of 2011 produced winners at odds of 9.0, 4.50 and 6.0 , with one loser.

Updated blog stats :

Number of posts: 3,802 , Page views: over 1.1 million hits, Original content : circa 15 million words ( about 17 average novels !)

2006 STAKES 991.5 RETURNS 1,154.806 ROI 116.46 %
2007 STAKES 1,187.5 RETURNS 1,331.677 ROI 112.14 %
2008 STAKES 482.5 RETURNS 664.675 ROI 137.75 %
2009 STAKES 548.5 RETURNS 642.43 ROI 117.12 %
2010 STAKES 225.13 RETURNS 259.585 ROI 115.30 %
2011 STAKES 162.25 RETURNS 171.025 ROI 105.41%

TOTALS 3,597.38 RETURNS 4,224.198 ROI 117.39 %

There is an event and country by country breakdown for the first five years of results on this LINK.

These results ONLY apply to selections posted on the blog, nothing else, you almost all receive occasional copies of my daily notes, so should be well aware of that.

Stakes/ number of previews have reduced pretty much two year, upon two year, this is because nowadays ONLY a small number of my selections appear on the blog ( maybe 10-15%), in the past it was close to 80-90%. With reduced output on here, variance is always likely to come into play and this is something I discussed recently LINK.

THURSDAY DECEMBER 29TH

We originally looked at the Eredivisie outright market in early October, that post is reproduced below in blue type and re-reading that, would probably be a good place to start. PSV have since closed the gap to AZ at the top of the table to just a single point, with FC Twente and Ajax a further four points adrift and Feyenoord six behind the team from Eindhoven.

PSV are now trading at a best priced 2.625, so any of you that got on following the original write up, has got a good value bet.If you missed out, I still feel the current quote is still too high and it seems sure to trade an awful lot lower in the coming month or two. PSV restart after the Winter Break with matches against Utrecht, Vitesse, Heracles and de Graaf, three are in the bottom half of the table and even allowing for Vitesse, they have an average placing of 12th in Eredivisie. They is a very comfortable programme in the opening month and fixtures that PSV have averaged 2.42 points per game from in the last decade. During this sequence AZ host Ajax and the Amsterdam giants also travel to Feyenoord,both fixtures where the points have tended to be shared around.

Looking at the longer term fixtures, PSV have already travelled to AZ, Twente and Feyenoord and whilst they still have to visit the Amsterdam Arena in late March, the other three contenders all have to to come to the Philips Stadion, where PSV have yet to taste defeat this season and have lost only twice in the league in 35 months ( 46 starts). All five named players in the original preview are in a settled PSV team now, Matavez, Toivanen and Wijnaldum scored the five goals between them in the 5-1 road win at Heerenveen immediately before the break and incredibly, all five were on the scoresheet in the 6-1 recent thumping of Groningen, so all are clearly contributing to a very strong offensive line up. They look sure to get stronger in the second half of the season, if anyone finishes above them, they will be champions, but it is hard for me to see beyond PSV for the title and if you are not already on and don't object to tying your funds up for several months then I make them a 2 unit bet @ 2.625 general quote, I anticipate that you could trade out for a profit shortly in any case, as you now could with the "original bet".Several players are being actively courted by EPL clubs, namely Erik Pieters, Jetro Willems and Martens, but Willems is only a "baby", Martens only joined in the off season and any moves for them would surely be more likely in the summer and the club have stated ( as they all do) that nobody is for sale.

I would like to discuss the outright betting market in Eredivisie, where I am far from certain that the oddsmakers have the correct favourite. Ajax are circa 2.25 across the board to follow up last year's win, but no team has retained the title since PSV won four in a row between 2004-5 and 2007-08, with AZ , Twente and Ajax winning one each since then, they are and remain the "big 4" and whilst Feyenoord look set for a better season than last campaign's woeful 10th place finish, they have a lot of ground to make up and have not troubled the top three places in over half a decade.

AZ lead the way at present with a four point lead over Twente and PSV, with the favourites a further two points adrift. Therefore, Ajax already have ground to make up on all three and their road form is a real worry, it almost cost them the title last season, especially when a defeat at Den Haag late in the season, left matters out of their own hands. Incredibly, they have now fallen behind in each of their last NINE Eredivisie road starts and there are only so many times that you can play that get out of jail free card ! After the international break, they host the leaders, so at least one of them is going to drop points and follow that up with another home start, when Feyenoord visit the capital. Either side of those matches are two Champions League meetings with Dinamo Zagreb, where six points for Ajax would put them back firmly into contention to qualify, with Lyon and Real Madrid also playing a double header in the next two rounds of games, the Amsterdam giants are far from out of things and they will surely be firmly focused on these upcoming games.

It really is PSV's turn for the title and they spent big in the summer to give themselves the best chance possible to win back the Championship. They spent close to 30m euros in transfer fees to sign Tim Matavz from Groningen, Georginio Wijnaldum of Feyenoord and the Utrech pair of Dries Mertens and Kevin Strootman. Mertens hit the ground running and has scored 11 in just 8 starts, Matavz was a little slower off the mark, as were a number of the new signings, but he also has six goals now and with Ola Toivanen also adding five, it is clear that this group and Wijnaldum scored 14 last season, are going to more than make up for the loss of last season's top scorer Balazs Dzsudzsak , PSV have spent the huge fee they received for him ( and more) wisely and look a much better squad this season IMO.

They are scoring freely with 20 in their last five starts alone and seem very unlikely to get sidetracked much in the Europa League, where one more win with four games to play is likely to take them close to qualification and they will be focused on their next two league starts, where they play two teams against whom they have fantastic records, firstly hosting Utrecht ( 10-0-0 in the last decade) and then traveling to Vitesse where they are 6-4-0, having won on five of their last seven visits. They have already hosted Ajax this season and had to settle for a share of the points in a 2-2 draw, but there were plenty of positives to take from that, they led twice and had good chances to extend their lead and have clearly improved since then. Ajax are unplayable domestically on a real going day, but concede too easily against even the weakest Eredivisie sides and are a little too willing to go toe to toe and shoot it out, sometimes you have to grind out a result. I do not think AZ and Twente have the class of either, or the staying power over 34 matches to win the title this year. I make PSV a narrow favourite and feel that at 3.25 + they are a very solid bet. I cannot put this in red type, as the top quotes are not avaiilable to all ( 3.75 V Chandler/ Blue Square..... 3.50 Corals/ Boyle/ Sky) , if there were similar quotes for big liquidity across the board they would be a maximum ( 2 unit) bet for me.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM MY BOXING DAY NOTES .... WRITTEN EARLY ON 24/12

Full domestic programme in England "today" and I have six matches to discuss......

CHAMPIONSHIP .... NOTTINGHAM FOREST - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

Forest are one of the clubs I want to keep an eye on in the coming month or so, they have been big underachievers this season, they have not won or even scored in five, but their two most recent outings, a 1-0 loss at Brighton where they had the better of the chances and a 0-0 draw at Bristol City, where only the heroics of David James denied then a 2-3 goal victory, hinted that an upturn in fortune was close. They have two home games in a row now, the second is against 5th placed Cardiff City and that is followed by starts against the top two sides in the Championship, Southampton and West Ham, so these are clearly the easiest points on offer for the time being, at least on paper. Confidence appears to remain high and Marcus Tudgay has talked this week about that and other players about how they are so much more solid at the back and just lacking a goal or two and it is not like they are not creating chances. This is a very big game for them and boss Steve Cotterill, however, for this game, unless Joel Lynch recovers it will mean probably playing returning defensive midfielder Guy Moussi in central defence, that is far from ideal, but Moussi has filled in there before successfully. Cotterill is well used to these type of problems from his time at Portsmouth and will certainly not be too fazed by the situation.

Posh also have problems and said earlier in the week they would be without three key players with striker Lee Tomlin having joined Grant McCann and Mark Little on the sidelines, however, it is now claimed that Tomlin might be available. They always look stronger when he plays, so I understand why they would give him every opportunity to prove his fitness, but with so many games on the horizon, it could prove to be the wrong decision to rush him back. I do think that Forest will come good very soon and with Posh only having beaten hapless Coventry in six starts and with just four wins from 34 away games at this level, today might well be the day. If Lynch makes the starting line up and /or Tomlin misses out, I would be even more keen, for now, just a flat stake .... Nottingham Forest -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line.

LEAGUE 1 ...... HUDDERSFIELD TOWN- CHESTERFIELD

Just one cleansheet in six for Town, who have struggled since losing that incredle unbeaten record recently. However, striker Jordan Rhodes remains on fire and notched all four goals in the 4-4 draw at Hillsborough last saturday. He must feel that the schedulers have given him a Christmas present with the holiday trip to the B2net Stadium, as the Spirites have conceded 22 goals in their last ten starts and not kept a clean sheet since boss John Sheridan was wearing short trousers to school. We discussed the hosts ahead of their game with Walsall last week, which ended 1-1, they created a lot of chances 19, including nine on target, but took too long ( over an hour) to get back into the game after falling behind in the first half. Having just got striker Jack Lester back, they are going to lose him for three games on a violent conduct charge. Even without Lester, I would not rush to take the understandably low odds on the hosts, but I do think there will be goals and Rhodes has far too much pace and energy for Neal Trotman at the heart of the visiting defence and the Terriers know him well from a lengthy loan spell at the club, two seasons ago. Field have leaked an average of 2.6 per goals per game on the road and the "over" could be landed by Rhodes on his own, even without Lester the visitors do have goals in them and have scored in their last 12 road starts, notching at least two in half ( six) of those. Given that Town have also been leaking recently a 3-2 ( odds 34.0) or 4-2 ( odds 51.0) home win is far from impossible and 5.0 + for the visitors to score over 1.5 goals is a tempting pick at juicy odds and something they have already done at Notts County and MK Dons, teams with similar home records to Huddersfield and they also scored one at both of the top two Charlton and Wednesday, at Hillsborough, it should have been three ! Town are worried about their defence and tried to get Jamie McCombe recalled from Preston where he is on loan, but with no recall clause in the deal, it was refused . However, I will keep things simple and opt for 1.5 units "Over" 2.75 goals 1.93 asian line.

Good Luck.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS !

I know that not all of you celebrate Christmas, but most of you will have some extra free time with your family, or loved ones, over the next few days.

Make the most of it, enjoy yourselves and have a happy and peaceful time.

Good Luck.

CHRISTMAS EVE FIXTURES .....

Inverness CT and Aberdeen meet in the "North East" derby game, a fixture traditionally dominated by the visitors, the Dons come into the match on the back of two wins and with it a degree of mid table safety, but will surely be looking for the hat-trick, ahead of a pair of tough looking New Year fixtures. They are 7-2-1 in their last ten visits, matches which have averaged 2.7 goals, with the last six all producing at least two and this one seems likely to follow suit, with ICT being involved in some recent high scoring encounters. They have scored in 7 of their last 8, only coming up short against Celtic in a match where they were holding their own, before a red card, meant they had to play the final 55 + minutes with ten men. Terry Butcher's side have not had much luck or decisions go their way ( see the Rangers write up below), but are prepared to take the game to opponents and their last four and 6 from 7, have all gone "over". They seem unlikely to sit back today, they are without a key defensive player in Chris Hogg and are already without an option or two at the back, they have not kept a cleansheet in 21 starts and will probably need two goals to get a result this afternoon. Aberdeen have just one clean sheet themselves in nine starts and that came against a poor Hibs side, who had the better of the game and chances. Weather should not be a concern, goals for me and the odds look good. "Over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line.

St Mirren and Glasgow Rangers meet in the televised fixture and this seems sure to be a tough, close, hard fough affair. Saints nine home games have only seen 18 goals in total and three of their four losses, have come by the miminum margin. Rangers will be ultra keen to win this and go into Wednesday's Old Firm derby holding at least the four point advantage over Celtic they currently enjoy. They will also be looking to conserve as much energy as possible and I do not see them needlessly chasing a second goal if and when they take the lead. Rangers have won on eight of their last ten visits here, with five also coming by the single goal margin and that is what I think is the likely outcome again today. Both teams have lost their way a little recently and any wins that have come the way of the league leaders, have been hard earned, like their 2-1 win over ICT at Ibrox last time out, when the visitors took the game to Rangers laying siege to the home goal in the second half and being denied two big penalty shouts.

Three of Rangers last five victories have come by a single goal, in their last 12 starts they have only scored more than two goals on one one occasion and they have conceded in six of their last nine starts, fixtures which came against teams with an average league placing of 8th ( in a 12 team league). They are trying to address this lack of goals and are set to get busy in the transfer window. Saints will be without Jim Goodwin and Lee Mairs today, which are big losses, but they have a couple of players, especially youngster Kenny McLean who will be looking to impress ahead of the window, infront of the tv cameras and they will be very motivated today. The two clubs played out a 1-1 draw at Ibrox two months ago and this should again be close, my suggestion would be Rangers to win by one goal @ circa 3.50.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ...

Rather surprisingly, away day's at Craven Cottage have been Manchester United's nemesis in recent seasons and given the Red's ongoing defensive woes, which we have touched upon many times, I can see that sequence continuing this evening.

United have taken just one point from their last three visits, with Fulham scoring in eight of the last ten visits, at least two in the last three, including a 3-0 win here in the pre Christmas fixture two seasons ago, to be precise, two years and two days ago. There is still not too much protection for the United backline and the hosts will doubtless take the game to the visitors, as they normally do when the "bigger" clubs come calling, with far too many of the other "minnows" adopting a much too cautious approach. They fought back from 2-0 down to claim a share of the spoils with Manchester City, a result all the more noteworthy, as they were struggling a little at that time, since when, they have beaten Liverpool and taken a point at the Emirates. The only blip verses top six teams, came against Tottenham, with Happy Harry's inform team winning 3-1 here in West London. That result was very unfair to Fulham, they created 26 attempts on goal, including a massive 20 on target, I lost count of the number of times Brad Friedel saved his team that day and the third goal and decisive goal came in the 96th minute, a reverse of the scoreline would have been a truer reflection of the game. So, we can see that the home side tend to show their best against the best and of course, United fall into that category. Both teams arrive on the back of easy weekend wins and in good form, but I still think that United have to get very busy in the transfer window, if they are to claim yet another EPL title. They have only kept consecutive clean sheets in that mini sequence following the horror show 6-1 home loss to City and the only "strong" team they met then was Everton, who were very wasteful. In my opinion they have over achieved in the EPL this season, probably having at least five more points than they should have and which their performances have merited. Bobby Zamora is set to return to the home line up and I have to take Fulham and the draw. Fulham +0.5 ball 2.20 + asian line.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

In the EPL, all eyes will be on Ewood Park and the relegation six pointer ( or is it more), between local rivals Blackburn Rovers and Bolton Wanderers, hard to see where the loser will go from here, for Rovers boss Steve Kean it will definitely be the job centre and the protesters will be out in force tonight at the first sign of things going wrong. That hardly helps anyone, apart from the visitors, but that is what Rovers have to deal with at the moment, Kean's days have been numbered for months now and the decision should have long since been taken. Wanderers have lost five in a row since putting five past Stoke and were poor at Fulham over the weekend when the two goal margin of defeat, could easily have been doubled, they are very vunerable from crosses and we should see Rovers giant defender Christopher Samba up at every opportunity and they have conceded an average of 2.375 goals per game. Rovers are without a cleansheet in 19 EPL starts and we discussed them ( below) ahead of the 2-1 home defeat to WBA on saturday, they are very gung-ho because they have to be and are very dependent on the aforementioned Samba at the back. Problem for me, is that Samba and his Bolton counterpart Gary Cahill both seem highly likely to be off in the transfer window and whilst it should not stop them from performing, it will surely be at the back of their mind, that they could miss out on a career defining move, by picking up an injury in the next fortnight. Anyway, it is very hard not to see goals again tonight and whilst both will be anxious early, the first goal and it shouldn't be too long coming with these two, is going to throw this wide open. Wanderers have won big at both Wigan ( 3-1) and QPR ( 4-0) , in addition to the victory at Stoke and I feel they are the better team, but they have not won, or been involved in what I would call a "battle" and that is what it will definitely be tonight and looked short of a true leader on the pitch at Craven Cottage, with even Kevin Davies "hiding". There is only one real option, both teams will score and it is "over" for me. 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.98 asian line. If you wanted a small interest at a big price, 7.0 + for Wanderers to score over 2.5 goals is an option, they have already done it twice on the road and Rovers have conceded three to Arsenal, Newcastle, Norwich and Wigan.

Good Luck.

written SATURDAY 17/12

At Ewood Park, I have to go for goals again in the Blackburn Rovers- West Bromwich Albion game, we have collected twice in recent Rovers starts and goals are a regular feature for them, with 7 of their last 8 going "over" and both teams on the scoresheet in 8 of their last 9 starts. Their last 14 matches have seen nine go over the 3.5 goal line, with five of those producing at least six goals, which is incredible. They have beaten Swansea 4-2 , Arsenal 4-3 and Newcastle 4-3 ( AET) at home and posted two 3-3 draws on the road at Norwich and Wigan.

Albion look to be regressing to pre Roy Hodgson defensive woes and are without a cleansheet in seven, they are another team who seem happier in their travels, where they are more expansive and appear to play with less pressure. Rovers took the lead at Sunderland last week and were denied another "good" goal when leading, before defending too deep and conceding two heartbreaking late goals. They will not make that mistake today and it is hard not to see both going toe to toe and another shoot out. 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.02 asian line

UPDATE .....

I have had a very, very strange month, with some unbelievably good ideas and big priced suggestions, like circa 17.5 the "over" 5.5 goals in the Dinamo - Lyon game ( see 7-8 posts below), the 5.0 Preston to win yesterday ( post directly below) and I have just started today with another, having put up Real Betis + 1 ball 1.91 as my main bet, but also writing ...... If Betis can keep the game and crowd quiet early and then show the same attacking intent as on display in their last road game, a "shock" away win could be on the cards.

Betis won 2-0 with two second half goals, despite ending the match with ten men and traded at circa 6.80 on the exchanges and 6.0 pretty much across the board.

I say that it has been a "strange month" as my main "red type" selections have not performed so well, but I do not run a tipping service, I preview a number of events and matches and it is for the reader to match up what they read, with their own thoughts and incorporate them into their personal betting portfolio. There is a huge amount of valuable information contained within my daily notes and if you get to see a copy, even only occasionally, you should read them fully to get the most out of them. Most of my readers do not need to be spoon fed and use them as they are designed, which is as a betting aid.

I would love to subscribe to my own service, or ideally, three or four just like it ( but there aren't any IMO), that would certainly make my job so much easier.

I write about a lot of leagues and sports, too many some would say " you cannot be an expert in all of them ", well, I don't claim to be an "expert" in any, just that for over 20 years I have made a profit in all of them and you can view five years of proofed stats here ( LINK) and if you see any leaks or weak spots, then you really need to book an eye test.

Actually, upon reflection, my ego has got the better of me and I have to say that I probably would consider myself an "expert" in several sports/ leagues, just probably not the obvious ones.

Brentford threw away two points yesterday btw, 1-0 up against ten men who had only created one goalscoring chance in 80 minutes with eleven players, the Bees were perhaps a little too negative and happy to try and hold on to what they had, although to be fair, the Bury keeper made a fantastic save to keep his team in the match just before the equaliser. I would have liked the extra points to take into a difficult sequence of New Year fixtures, but the Bees are a work in progress and can only get better IMO.

I might put one more preview on here later today, lets see how the Ligue 1 match goes first !

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

In Ligue 1, Rennes travel to Ajaccio and simply have to win to keep pace with clubs battling for a Champions League spot, as discussed before, a long awaited camapign in europe's premier competition, is the be all and end all of their season and all their eggs are in this particular basket.

The visitors come into the game having collected just one point from their last two starts, in both of which they paid the price for a very sluggish start and they have done everything possible to prepare fully for today and are looking to come firing out of the blocks. They took a 25 man party to Madrid in midweek (see below) for the Europa League game with Atletico, which was a friendly", they then stayed in the city and trained on Friday, before flying directly to Corsica.

They are 5-0-4 on the road and only leaders Montpellier have scored more away goals, a win would take them into 5th and perhaps more importantly to potentially within 5 points of the summit. The current top 3 all face road games on Tuesday/ Wednesday, when Rennes have a very win-able home tie, so three points today could see them in a strong position entering the mini winter break. Hosts are already booked for a swift return to Ligue 2 and reading some comments on their website, are kind of focused on a run in the cup, they were said to be devastated by conceding a very late goal at Nancy last week and added that the single point felt like another loss and was proving tough to get out of the system.

Big boost for Rennes with the return to the squad of Onyekachi Apam, he had not played in 18 months since completing a 4m euros transfer from Nice, following major surgery. He was signed to build a young defence around and his return to action, is like having a new big money signing.

1.5 units Rennes -0.75 ball 2.00 + asian line

Keepers: Costil, Diallo, Ndiaye Defenders: Mavinga, Apam, Mangane, Kana-Biyik, Jebbour, John Boye, Danzé, Foulquier, Theophile Catherine
Midfield: Tettey, Feret, Mandjeck, Brahimi, Pajot, Doumbia, M'Vila
Attackers: Pitroipa, Kembo, Boukari, Hadji, Montaño, Diarra

Back later.

PHIL BROWN ..... AVAILABLE FOR SINGING ENGAGEMENTS ANYWHERE !

SATURDAY DECEMBER 17TH

There is quite a lot to get through today, so let's start in League 1 and the televised match between MK Dons and Preston North End. New North End Chairman Peter Ridsdale only took eight days to get rid of Phil Brown and I am sure the decision was already taken before he took charge of the club on December 6th. The hugely experienced pairing of Graham Alexander and David Unsworth will take charge of team affairs whilst a replacement ( Billy Davies ?) is sought. I think Brown was a little unlucky, he got Preston really buzzing and set up to play a certain way and the 4-3-3 formation was working incredibly well, before he lost all three front players at the same time and for extended periods. however, he spent too long trying to stick with his game plan, when he clearly didn't have the personnel to do so and paid the price, when results nosedived. If you had said to me ten weeks ago that PNE would be available at circa 5.0 to beat any third tier team this season, firstly I would have laughed and secondly I would have made it my bet of the season, however, like in politics one week, let alone ten, is a long time in football and that day has arrived and I hesitate to pull the trigger. I am sure that the new coach when he arrives, especially if he can keep both Mellor and Hume at the club, will oversee a big upturn in fortunes, but there is no "new coach effect" today, having said that, the mood at the club seems likely to have lifted, despite one or two senior players speaking up for Brown this week, they are the more vocal players and I suspect the silent majority are probably relieved.

Dons are very strong at home, where they are unbeaten and their high possession style of play is well suited to the big playing surface, something we have discussed on several occasions.They have quite a few knocks today a couple have been openly discussed, but boss Karl Robinson has admitted there are a couple more, but he doesn't want to disclose the players concerned.

I will probably play a minimal stake on Preston at circa 5.0, as I couldn't handle it if they won unbacked at that price and IMO, any stake lost on them today is only loaned, as there will be money to be made on North End in the next month or two. There is a good chance that we will see Neil Mellor and Iain Hume from the start today, Hume played 45 minutes last week on his comeback, so I see no reason why he will not be available for 75 + today and if the pair have a going day, they can give Dons plenty to think about.

Elsewhere in the third tier, the Chesterfield board gave a big vote of confidence to boss John Sheridan this week, it seemed a little more than the normally dreaded vote and in it they detailed that funds would be provided to strengthen in the transfer window. That is good news for Sheridan and the supporters, but it doesn't really ease the pressure today, when Walsall are the visitors. The Spirites go to Huddersfield on Boxing Day and failure to win today is going to leave them cast adrift at the foot of the table, with a mountain to climb in the New Year, they need three points and soon. It is certainly not going to get much easier than today, the Saddlers are still reeling from an extra time defeat on home soil to Dagenham, who are 92nd of 92 clubs in the Football League in midweek and that was an expensive loss as it came along with injuries to three players and with Ryan Jarvis still suspended, the visitors are short of options today.

Hosts have lost Leon Clarke, who has returned to Swindon Town after completion of his three month loan, but the prolific Jack Lester looks set to be available to play some part today, even if it is from off the bench. Chesterfield do have goals in them and get forward very quickly, but defensively have struggled all season. However, this is kind of their season on the line, it is their last home start of 2011 and they desperately need the points, they are facing a tired opponent, who might be forced to play a youth team player in the key central defensive role and one who arrive at a similar low ebb confidence wise. There was plenty to like about Chesterfield's unlucky loss at Wycombe last week and in recenty starts against Preston and Sheffield United, I take them to claim a much needed three points. Chesterfield -0.5 ball 2.25 + general quote.

I have a further "red type " selection at odds of 3.50 and two strong ( 1.5 unit picks) in the EPL, both at odds against and also a speculative suggested bet at odds of over 21-1 ( trying to pay for Christmas and New Year in one fell swoop) that I feel has a real chance of success. However, I will not be able any of those on the blog today, but will probably return with a pick or two tomorrow, so please check back.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ... TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

Next up is the relegation six pointer between Istres and Amiens, where I am keen on the hosts. Istres meet two teams immediately below them in the table before the winter break and if they don't manage to win at least one of them, are very likely to spend Christmas in the drop zone. I think that will come tonight, home coach José Pasqualetti is very focused on this game and in getting those so valuable three points, his team have stopped the defensive rot ( only Monaco have conceded more goals) with a pair of draws in the league, those results were sandwiched inbetween two cups wins, where they managed nine unanswered goals, they may have come against lower league opposition, but were huge confidence boosting fixtures. In the last of those, they notched six and all three strikers contributed, a hat trick for young Nicolas de Preville and three between Nassim Akrour and Sid Ali Yahia-Cherif their hugely experienced Algerian pair. All three are in the squad and will be salivating at the prospect of facing this goal shy Amiens side ( just 12 all season, a third of which came in one game a shock 4-0 defeat of Chateauroux and we have seen nothing like that, before or since !), especially since they are without Paul, Lybohy and Cisse, the first two would be the first names on the team sheet and Cisse is seen as cover for Lybohy and this is going to leave them severely weakened at the back.

This problem is compounded tonight, as there has been a huge amount of rain in the Amiens area and the club have been unable to train or prepare for this match on grass, with all work done on a synthetic surface. All the advantages are with Istres and on what I have seen ( both teams twice in full and highlights of other fixtures), they are the better team anyway and certainly the one with more offensive threat and I take them to win. 1.5 points Istres -0.5 goal 2.14 +asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY NOTES ....

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 14TH

Wins for Oldham Athletic and Internazionale at very nice odds, steadied the ship after a poor weekend and after taking Monday "off", that was a promising way to start the new week.

Four selections today, including two very strong ideas in the Europa League.

Going to start with the Thursday morning ( for those of us in Europe) kick off between Al-Sadd this year's AFC Champions League winners and Barcelona, far and away the best club side in world football, in the "semi final" of the Club World Cup, which this year returns to Japan after the UAE played host the last two years.

Barce need no introduction, so let's start with a few words about Al- Sadd, they are certainly no lightweights, or shrinking violets and have a big physical presence, being renamed "Al Badd" by the South Korean media after a hugely controversial, which is a bit of an understatement, two legged semi final with Suwon Samsung Bluewings in the AFC Champions League. They then had to return to Korea for the final, with all the baggage and media attention hanging over them from the earlier game and showed huge courage to beat Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors on penalties, in front of a very noisy and huge home crowd. The South Korean clubs had dominated the competition in recent seasons, something we discussed earlier in the year and for Al-Sadd to beat not one, but two of them, including the domestic champions in the final on home soil, tells you all you need to know about the mental fortitude of the team from Qatar. They are match fit after beating Espérance in the "quarter finals" and have a lot of experience in their ranks with Kader Keita ( 60 caps Ivory Coast), Marmadou Niang ( 50 games for Senegal) and Nadir Belhadj ( 50 + appearances for Algeria) all well known to european audiences, Lee Jung-Soo has played over 50 times for South Korea and all the others are Qatari internationals.

Of course, they have not met the like of Barcelona before and if the Catalan giants put their best foot forward, they can probably win this with ease. They have taken a squad of 23 players to Japan, all the big names are there and we are sure to see each in action, if not in this game, then in the final against Santos or Kashiwa Reysol. Barce got the result they craved in Madrid at the weekend and that will have hugely lifted the mood on the very long flight over, all were given one "day off ", but like their training day, with it came a lot of calls from the media and PR work. We talked about this in the summer, when Barce went to the US, there is huge demand on them, as a club and world champions to "get out there" and be seen and they take these responsibilities seriously, it has a big payback of course, especially in huge still untapped markets like Asia and the USA, but it is time consuming.

When Barce last played in this competition in 2009, they opened with a 3-1 win over Atlante of Mexico, their opponents led for over half an hour and it was only half way through the second half that they really got on top and then they relaxed and eased off a little. Messi only played the final 35 minutes btw. This whole competition is a PR event, of course, Barcelona will want to win and we could see the best of them in the final if they face Santos, but it doesn't really help anyone if they come an embarrass the "minnows", especially with Qatar ( at least at the moment) due to host a World Cup and looking to raise their profile at every opportunity. That is kind of a cynical view I guess, but even if that is not the case and Barcelona look to score as many as possible, after their biggest game of the season on saturday, a 14 hour flight and a couple of days with jet lag and the media following them everywhere, I think they will struggle to notch four against such a professional, physical opponent, far more used to the surroundings and I have to take Al- Sadd and that huge handicap start. Al-Sadd +3 goals 2.19 asian line.

There are three bets that I like in the Europa League, I am not going to spend a huge amount of time talking about the matches, they are all ......... rest of the notes are restricted.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

The weather is going to play a huge role in the UK domestic games today, there is heavy rain and more importantly high winds all over England, they battered Scotland at the weekend and have now moved South and even in the South East, which normally misses out on the worst of this kind of weather, it is very nasty and certainly not condusive to playing football.

The FA Cup ties at Yeovil, Walsall, Grimsby and especially Oldham, which is regarded as the coldest and most exposed ground in the country, at least to lower league football fans and is not called " Ice Station Zebra" without good reason, are likely to be very hard hit, but probably more of that later in the day.

For most neutrals, Chelsea's win over Manchester City was a good result for the title race and it puts Roberto Mancini and his team under increased pressure ahead of the visit from the Gunners on Sunday. That pressure will be cranked up, if Manchester United win at QPR and/or Chelsea at Wigan on saturday. Three points for United would take them back to the top of the table and give City players something to ponder when they go for their saturday night curry !

I really hope that happens, not just because as an "old school" Brentford fan, I still consider QPR as my club's real rival, but I really want to see how City react under real pressure. Very interesting weekend in prospect.

The photagraph is of Boundary Park , Oldham in high summer, which is "kind" of a joke, but if you have spent a midweek night there in December-February, you will not be laughing ! I do admit to being a "southern softie" though and keep my shirt on at all times whilst watching the beautiful game !

Back later.

SUNDAY MORNING BLUES ....

I did not have a good day at all yesterday, poor results and frozen to the core watching a game where I was on the away team and had to sit surrounded by delirious home supporters !

I would like to say that I was unlucky, but that was not really the case, Scunthorpe United led for an hour and had two chances late to win the game before that late, late Carlisle winner, but it would have been an injustice and it has to go down as "one of those days".

Brentford won at Griffin Park, which is rare this season and always cause for celebration, at least in my household ! The Bees are now in the top six, but trail the five clubs above them by six points and you can argue that they are the five biggest, or five of the six biggest clubs in the division, so Brentford are going to have to cling on to their coattails for the time being and try to put some pressure on them in the New Year, when I do expect the Bees to improve......... All I want for Christmas is a kindly Championship side to lend us a promising young striker !

Back later.

SATURDAY ..... THE HOLIDAY SEASON STARTS HERE ....

I discussed seven of today's matches in my daily notes, putting up three selections and one is reproduced below. This is an important stage of the season for so many teams, the crowded holiday fixtures are fast approaching and they are always regarded as key for every club, but I feel these matches just before are of , at least, equal importance, as they set the tone for the busy fortnight ahead, when there is little time to do anything other than play and recover.

Manchester City will get a real examination of their title aspirations in the next eight days, going to Stamford Bridge on Monday and then hosting the Gunners next Sunday. If they slip up, Tottenham Hotspur might be one the biggest beneficiaries and continue their run towards the top with an "easy" run of fixtures in the next month. I highlighted their mid season fixture list a few weeks back and suggested that 2.50 to claim a top four spot looked big and a price that you could definitely trade out for a profit short term and they are now a general 1.40 .

Aside from hosting Chelsea in 12 days time, seven of their next eight fixtures come against teams outside the top 7, with an average league position of 13th, so if you favour them to win at the Britannia Stadium tomorrow, the 18-1 for them to win the title could also halve very quickly, however hard it might be to envisage them as eventual champions.

In La Liga tonight we have El Clasico with Real Madrid hosting Barcelona, a match half the world will be watching. The boot is on the other foot this time round, with Barce not daring to lose this match, in recent seasons it has been Real coming into the game in that situation and seemingly unable to play their normal game. This time round the hosts will still have a lead ( game in hand) at the top of the table, regardless of what happens tonight and that takes off much of the pressure IMO, last season, even at the Bernabeu, Jose Mourinho was too cautious to really go after Barce, but he learned from the numerous meetings since that frightful 5-0 loss in November 2010 and in six h2h games this year, they been very competitive in all bar one. I hope JM throws off the shackles tonight and goes for it, Barcelona have looked vunerable on the road this season and their only two domestic wins have come at Gijon and Granada, both by the minimal margin. However, we all know that they if the visitors have "one of those nights" then no team can live them. This is one game I am happy to watch without a financial interest, but if you pushed me to pick, it would have to be Real off level ball.

In League 1 with the Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United fixture, the visitors sit eleven places and the same number of points ahead of their hosts, but I do not feel that is the a true reflection of their ability and I certainly expect that gap to close, maybe even turn around before the end of the season. Scunny and boss Alan Knill have had a very tough time of things injury wise , they have really struggled for consistency, at times being woeful, like in most of their last five games, at others, like in the four matches before that sequence when they drew at Brentford and MK Dons and played two strong teams Tranmere Rovers ( 4-2) and Huddersfield Town ( 2-2) off the park here at Glanford Park, they should have been the team to end the Terriers record breaking unbeaten run, but missed not one, but two penalties in that game ! Carlisle have not scored in four road starts against League 1 teams, but as two of those came at league leaders Charlton Athletic ( one in the FA Cup), I suppose we can cut them a little slack, but goals are a problem for the visitors and the mood amongst supporters of the club is poor, especially for a club on the playoff fringes and they are hyper critical of boss Greg Abbott and especially his negative tactics and team selection, this is another club desperately trying to add a striker asap, but one operating on a very tight budget.

Scunthorpe have had the most attempts on goal on any League 1 team this season ( 251) and the highest number on target ( 136), they have also been denied by the woodwork a division high eight times, which, when you add in the missed penalties, it doesn't take a genius to work out that they could/should be much higher up the league.They have targeted today as a must win fixture and I believe they will have benefitted from the 13 day break, that has enabled them to clear the treatment room slightly and put in a lot of work on the practice ground. I understand that this has gone really well and coach Knill has focused on his team keeping their shape, something that has been a problem with several youngsters and loanees coming into the squad and also working on pressing when his side lose possession

Jimmy Ryan, Jordan Robertson, Sam Togwell and Andrew Wright all return today, Cliff Byrne is also a possible and the hugely talented Damien Moziaka probably needs one more week on the sidelines, but his return to training has been a huge boost and now at least, there is real competition for starting places.Hosts have three of their next four starts at Glanford Park and this is a real and probably last chance to kick start their season, they have a terrific record in this series and are considered Carlisle's bogey yeam, with a 6-0-1 record here and 6-1-1 in the reverse fixture. I like their chances of adding to that today. I almost forgot, after taking training last saturday morning ( no game remember) Knill then drove personally to London to watch Carlisle play at Charlton in the cup, he could have sent a coach or scout, so that shows how importantly he views this game, either that or he didn't want to go home to his wife ! Scunthorpe United -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

EUROPA LEAGUE COMES TO MANCHESTER ....

We are still coming to terms with Manchester City as a major force in european football and they played in the Europa League last season, so it comes as less of a shock to see them in europe's "other" competition. However, for the red half of Manchester, it is more a case of an embarrassment which has to be endured and an encumbrance which will hang around their necks like a yoke of shame for the rest of the season.

United have played for four months with no protection for their back line , I first raised this and was laughed at for doing so, when United beat Tottenham 3-0 and Arsenal 8-2 early season, but it was clear even then, that it would cause them major problems and a series of recent cleansheets against "weaker" opposition, merely papered over the cracks and long term, this painful elimination from the Champions League might turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as Sir Alex will now surely make a quality holding midfielder ( or two) a priority in the transfer window. Every cloud has a silver lining and United will not have to worry about any new signings being eligible for the Champions League !

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

I only covered three Champions League matches in my daily notes this week, Marseille and Chelsea both won yesterday and I sent my preview of the Dinamo Zagreb- Olympique Lyonnais, out yesterday by email and posted it today on the blog and wrote ....

I make the "over" a solid bet and given Lyon's need for goals and if they can get a couple early, it might increase the pressure on Ajax, allied to the potential mental let down for Dinamo, who go on their winter break after this fixture, the score could really be anything here and over 4.5 goals at circa 7.0 + ( 7.40 on exchanges) and/ or "over" 5.5 goals at 17.0 + ( 17.5 exchanges) might also carry a tiny investment from me, 2-4, 2-5, 1-5 something like that is far from impossible and one of those is available at 200-1. For my main bet, a more cautious 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line.

THE RESULT .....

THE "OVER" 2.5 GOALS 2.03 LANDED INSIDE 47 MINUTES.

THE "OVER" 4.5 GOALS 7.40 LANDED INSIDE 52 MINUTES.

THE "OVER" 5.5 GOALS 17.0 LANDED INSIDE 64 MINUTES.

LYON WON 7-1 !

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

UPDATE .....

Just to advise that because of the Christmas and New Year emails, which you should all have been advised about ( deadline to sign up 09.00 Friday). There will not be any "freebie" emails until after January 9th.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .....

I discussed two Champions League games in my notes yesterday, just two btw, they are reproduced below. Both Marseille and Chelsea won, but it is the OM match that I would like to discuss. This was a golden opportunity to win decent money on a single fixture.

If you read my match preview you will know what each team was looking for and when the Dortmund players and coaching staff went back to the dressing room at half time and saw that Olympiakos were 2-0 up, they knew that any dreams of further progression were over. For Marseille, who had pulled a goal back just before the break to trail 2-1, they knew that a win and only a win would see them claim that all important second spot in the group. How is each team going to approach the second half ? Who has everything to play for and all the motivation in the world ? Which team already has one, maybe both eyes on a vital Bundesliga game at the weekend ? The goals came late for OM, but they came and whenever they come , they count and the visitors were never going to give up trying.

You have to try and think about how matches are likely to play out and much of this, is as much about a mental state of mind , as the physical situation. As I am fond of saying, 90% of all sport is played between the ears and getting a team/player onto the field of play, with the right mental approach is absolutely key.

Most people can't be bothered to do the research, even if you present them with all the facts, they are still too lazy to take a minute or two to read them and think about the match/event. To be blunt, that is idiotic IMO, if you are betting for fun/entertainment then fine, if you do not really care if you win or lose and only regard money spent on sports betting as the same as night out at the pub/ restaurant/ cinema, that is your choice and you are no different from the 96% of the betting public who do likewise.

We are back to that hard work ethic here, to make money sports betting you have to work hard and even if you get some help along the way sometimes ( my daily notes ?), you still have to read them and think about your bets.

I have one Champions League selection for today, which I sent my regular readers yesterday afternoon, it is also reproduced, at the foot of this post. It might win, it may not, to be honest it doesn't overly matter to me personally, as I know that I will win, if not today, then tomorrow, next month, or the one after , long term I always do, because I work harder at it than anyone else I know.

Here endeth the sermon for the day !

Good Luck.

TUESDAY DECEMBER 6TH

I am going to start in the Champions League and the very "odd" fixture between Borussia Dortmund and Olympique Marseille. Hosts have to win by four or more and hope that Arsenal , who have already won the group and travel without several key players and with a massive domestic holiday campaign on the horizon, get something in Greece against Olympiakos, who are desperate for the three points. There is very little chance of that scenario happening and also, IMO, the worst case scenario for Borussia is that the Gunners win and they narrowly defeat OM and find themselves in the Europa League. The Bundesliga title race looks sure to go down to the wire, as will the battle for CL spots for next season and any further european involvement this time round, in anything other than the premier competition will surely be seen as an unwanted distraction. Dortmund are without Bender, Schmelzer, Subotic and both Leitner and Kehl are doubts and coach Jurgen Klopp is going to make a late decision about what kind of starting eleven he puts out.

I like OM as a side and feel, as I have said many times before, that they are ideally set up to play on the road, where they do not have to make the running. They can afford to lose this game by a narrow margin if Arsenal beat Olympiakos and will also be without a couple of important players, but the difference with them is twofold, one they can win and all other calulations are irrelevant, so at least they are in control of their own destiny and secondly they are a huge price to win (5.0 +) and we can always take a chance, against what might be a leseer motivated opponent at those kind of odds. Marseille to win 5.30 exchanges, there is some 5.50 in places.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea entertain Valencia, the Blues will progress with a win or 0-0 draw, but a 1-1 scoreline will see them lose out and already ten points adrift of Manchester City in the title race, the prospect of Europa League football is going to be very hard to swallow for owner Roman Abramovich and will massively increase pressure on coach Andre Villas-Boas . Chelsea do not do too many 0-0 draws and even if this match was heading that way with 20 minutes to go, Valencia would have to open up and look for a goal, which will open up the game and space at the back for the blues to exploit. I expect AVB to stick to his attacking principles, that is why he was bought to the club, not only to bring success, but to do so with some style. In the reverse fixture at the Mestalla, which finished 1-1, Chelsea were coasting, before gifting the hosts a penalty, they created the better chances ( ten on target, a massive number on the road in europe against quality opposition) and it was an awkward fixture for Juan Mata, who had only left Valencia the previous month. Having come to London, to further his career ( as well as the money), he will be desperate not to lose out to his former club and all the spanish players in the home squad tonight will surely be busting a gut to progress. Chelsea usually step up in these must win fixtures at the Bridge and I take them to win and to do so with a touch of class. Chelsea -0.75 ball 2.0 asian line.

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 7TH

I am going to stick with just the one Champions League match, the tie between Dinamo Zagreb and Olympique Lyonnais. The visitors look to have blown their chance to progress out of the group stage by failing to beat Ajax in France on Matchday 5, now they need to win this, combined with a Real Madrid win in Amsterdam, with a seven goal swing somewhere along the line. That would have been at least a possibility had Real something to play for, but they do not and a handful of their big name players have not even travelled to the Netherlands.

However, a chance is a chance and should Lyon take the lead and then hear from Amsterdam that Madrid are ahead, it will then be "game on ". At the same time that Lyon were toiling against Ajax, Real were thumping Dinamo 6-2 in the Bernabeu, they were 4-0 up inside 20 minutes and could probably have scored eight or more if they had really pushed things, that should at least give Lyon encouragement. Dinamo scored their two goals late on and gave their fans in the stadium something to cheer. If the hosts approach this match in a similar frame of mind, we should at least see some entertaining open football and I think one goal will throw this match wide open, almost regardless of what is happening in the other group game. I make the "over" a solid bet and given Lyon's need for goals and if they can get a couple early, it might increase the pressure on Ajax, allied to the potential mental let down for Dinamo, who go on their winter break after this fixture, the score could really be anything here and over 4.5 goals at circa 7.0 + ( 7.40 on exchanges) and/ or "over" 5.5 goals at 17.0 + ( 17.5 exchanges) might also carry a tiny investment from me, 2-4, 2-5, 1-5 something like that is far from impossible and one of those is available at 200-1. For my main bet, a more cautious 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.