LIGUE 1 :
Plenty
of teams still have a lot to play for in Ligue 1, with three battling
for 5th spot and a Europa League place and a further eight looking to
avoid the two remaining promotion slots, to say nothing of Montpellier
and PSG still fighting for the title. The leaders go to already
relegated ( not sure how !) Auxerre, needing a point and PSG go to Lorient,
needing a win and an upset in the other game to snatch the title.
Lorient are in the heart of the relegation scrap, but results elsewhere
could save them and I can see a situation where both of these two could
play out a draw in the first half and then review the situation at the
break, if
Montpellier are two up, PSG might switch off, likewise if results are
not going well for the teams below Lorient and four are playing on the
road. I have seen plenty of 2.375 for
the half time draw and up to 2.46 for tiny liquidity on the exchanges
and those odds seem way too big to me under the circumstances. Both teams have gone in level at the break in 17 matches ( 46%) this season.
I feel sure that we will see plenty of swings and turns this evening, but we might see a lot of the action taking place after the break, when teams will have a better idea of where they stand and exactly how great their need to gamble is.
If you are betting "in running" , of those eight teams involved in the relegation dog fight, Valenciennes ( 1.37 point average) and Lorient ( 1.24) have collected the most second half points this season.
Bordeaux are usually fast starters, "collecting" a Ligue 1 high 63 points before the break, 12 more than leaders Montpellier who have gone in level at the half in an eyecatching 65% of all starts.
One game where I do not really agree with the odds is .....
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There is one "friendly" match I like the look of and that involves Lille, confirmed in third place at home to mid table Nancy
who have nothing to play for. The hosts will be saying goodbye to Eden
Hazard, Ligue 1 's player of the last two seasons and I am certain they
will want to do so with a touch of class and with a bang. Lille are
defending champions at least until the completion of these matches and are
once again the division's top scorers on home soil for the third year
running, during which they have posted a 38-13-5 record and averaged
over two goals per game, eight times scoring three or more here this
season. They are 2.20 to again score at least three , which is general quote and I will take that for 1.5 units, I would not be surprised to see them really go to
town and there are huge prices around for them to score 5 or 6 ( over
5.5 for the game is 8.0 +) and/or Hazard to score two ( 5.5) or three
(26.0), he will definitely take any penalties and four goals might earn
him a share of the top scorer award in Ligue 1, however far fetched that
might sound. But "officially" I will keep things
straightforward. Nancy are without several key players including Sami,
Andre Luiz, Haidara and Niculae ( top scorer) and are said to be having a defensive
reshuffle..... lambs to the slaughter ?
Good Luck.
contact : gowi8@btinternet.com
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