This is not the most exciting day of the year from a betting perspective, tomorrow looks FAR better and to be honest, it is going to be difficult to put everything into even two emails as I also want to give some early news for an interesting Monday programme, but I will try. First will be at 09.30 Sunday morning with the early kick offs and the Monday fixtures, the second at around 11.30 will cover the later Sunday games and the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship PGA event which is shaping up nicely, but not for Tiger Woods who missed the cut yesterday. Plenty of cream still in that field at Quail Hollow and much of it is slowly rising to the top of the leaderboard.
I will touch upon five events today, but only three (and a half) real selections for me.
FA CUP FINAL : CHELSEA- LIVERPOOL
This is tough to call, but Chelsea have had a very tough schedule with this their 15th start inside 48 days, including those two games against Barcelona when they were run into the ground. Pool have played four matches less in this period and took the option to rest all their key players for the league match in midweek and they should definitely strip fitter this afternoon. Also Liverpool have been something of a bogey side to the Blues recently, having won the last four h2h meetings, including two earlier games, both at Stamford Bridge this season. This will be tight, but it will open up after the first goal, if you twisted my arm, I guess it would be Liverpool, this is their pinnacle of the season, and they will leave nothing in the tank, Chelsea have the small matter of a Champions League final still to play and might be a little less committed. No bet for me.
SCOTLAND DIVISION 2 :
COWDENBEATH- AIRDRIE UNITED
STENHOUSEMUIR- FORFAR ATHLETIC
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GERMANY BUNDESLIGA : AUGSBURG- HAMBURGER SV
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LA LIGA : GRANADA - REAL MADRID
Hosts are not quite safe from relegation yet and Real have now sealed the title, but I still feel we will see a committed performance from the visitors and especially Cristiano Ronaldo, he trails Lionel Messi by two goals in the "Pichichi" race, the Argentine superstar has 46 goals and Ronny 44, with two rounds to go, both would still have an eye on that magical 50 mark which would be some achievement, but winning the race would be the first target. Barcelona are hosting Espanol, who are in freefall, but the Catalan giants tend to struggle against their neighbours and Messi has a very poor scoring record in this fixture, just one goal in eight meetings I believe. So the door is definitely open for Ronaldo. This is a tough place to come and score goals, but so was the San Mames last week, but he scored there and also missed a penalty after scoring 12 straight from the spot in normal play. That happened early in the game and the noisy home crowd, who are not Real's biggest fans anyway, gave him a frightful roasting , CR got angry and earned his revenge in the best way possible and although he has been publicly playing down the importance of this goalscoring title, I am sure he would love to snatch it from Messi and his team mates will probably do their best to help him over the next two fixtures. He has scored in 13 of his last 15 starts, 20 in total , including two at Osasuna and three at Atletico, also tough venues. I have to take him to score two or more tonight 2.50 + is acceptable, there is 2.75 in places. If this was a Serie A game from 2-3 seasons ago, a 3-3 draw ( Granada probably need a point), with CR scoring a hatrick would have been a good call and it is not totally impossible.
BOXING : WBC LIGHT MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
SAUL ALVAREZ- SHANE MOSLEY
It is a while since I have discussed any boxing, last time was the Manny Pacquiao- Shane Mosley fight almost exactly twelve months ago LINK .
That day we were all over Pac - Man to win on points, but I am not sure that Sugar Shane will be up to lasting the distance this evening. Mosley has never been stopped, but is now 40 years old and is twice the age of his unbeaten opponent.Don't get me wrong, Mosley is an all time great and has never dodged anyone, fighting the best of the best, his record was outlined in that earlier post, but he has not fought in 12 months, or won a fight since early 2009, almost three and a half years ago and even that win was clouded in controversy with his opponent Antonio Margarito being found "loading" his gloves before the fight and later being suspended from boxing, that implied that Margarito was not 100% going into the fight and through no fault of Mosley, undervalues the win.
Alvarez is a red haired Mexican, a boxer from a family of boxers, his six brothers have all fought professionally and four of them at a very high level. "Canelo" looks far and away the best and is being widely touted as the next big thing, only 21, he already has a 39-1-0 record, 29 by knockout and also has another 20 amateur bouts under his young belt, he was just seven years old the first time Mosley fought for a world title. I am sorry to be a cynic, but money talks in boxing, Alvarez career has been very clearly planned out and opponents carefully picked, Mosley is a big name, but one who at his age is unlikely to trouble the youngster, Floyd Mayweather Jr and Pac Man could not stop Mosley and they are the two best fighters on the planet, but he probably didn't win a round against either and a win inside the distance is going to look fantastic on Alvarz's CV and will be his ticket into the really big leagues and superstardom. Alvarez is a slow starter so will have to stay out of the way through the first round or two, but Mosley has lost power and cannot have the same endurance and stamina he has shown for 20 years, this looks one fight too many and too late in his fanatstic career. Hugely respected coach Emanuel Steward , who has spent a lifetime in the game spoke about the match up and when asked if he thought Mosley could win said ....
“Nope! I mean firstly I just can’t see Shane doing too much in that fight. I just don’t see it. I’m surprised that the fight was made. I’ll be very honest with you. It’s just that one guy is heading north at such a fast pace and the other guy is heading south at a pretty decent pace. I think Saul Alvarez is just a very fabulous fighter, and I think whoever he fights would have a tough challenge with him, and I just don’t know if Shane has that physical strength and that high intensity and spirit that he once had earlier in his career. Just to say he’s going to hold him off with experience, I don’t think that’s going to be enough to me. But it’s going to be interesting to see what happens in the fight. I’m just very surprised that the fight was even made.”
1.25 units Saul Alvarex to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification ... 2.50 + ... plenty of 2.625 around...( Stan James offer 1.91 and that is more my idea of the correct price).
Good Luck.
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