SUNDAY DECEMBER 16TH
Two
early matches here, just brief notes as I want to spend more time on
the second email, which I will send out at 14.00 UK, but I like both
these selections.
LA LIGA: REAL ZARAGOZA -LEVANTE
I
think the early kick off is very much in Levante's favour today, we
have spoken previously about how footballers are creatures of habit and
dislike too much disruption to their normal schedule, they are used to
afternoon and evening fixtures, but these lunch time games, mean waking
and eating early on match days and take some adjustment. Zaragoza have
had a tough schedule with four straight road games, all at "regular"
times, including two this week, a win at Vallecano on Monday and
another, courtesy of an injury time winner at Levante in the Copa del
Rey on Thursday. Levante have La Liga and Europa League as a priority
and rested most of their players for that game, they should strip much
fresher and this is the match
they have given priority to this week. Real bonus is that they are
already on the morning routine, having played at this time last week,
beating Mallorca 4-0 at home and will doubtless have stayed with the
same training time and meal times this week. They also played in the
"morning" kick off last month winning 2-0 at Deportivo, so are already
well used to the change in schedule. They have no new injury problems
and look in good shape to win this and the three points would take them
to within one of a Champions League spot. Nine of today's Zaragoza squad
played on Thursday and six of them also started at Vallecano. We spoke
about the shortage of draws in La Liga on Monday (see below), Real did
us a kind of favour there, but this is all about the visitors today for
me, I like the straight win, but even with the lack of draws, on this
occasion, feel that the mimimum handicap start is the way to go 1.75 units Levante +0.25 ball 2.16 asian line.
ZARAGOZA : Roberto, Leo Franco, Movilla, Paredes,
Álvaro, Lanzaro, Goni, Edu Oriol, H. Postiga, Apoño, Montañés, José
Mari, Stefan, Sapunaru, Zuculini, Abraham, Pintér, Jorge Ortí and Víctor
Rodríguez.
LEVANTE:1 Munúa,13 Keylor
Navas,4 Navarro,5 Héctor Rodas,12 Juanfran,15 Nikos,18 Ballesteros,22
Chris,7 Barkero,8 El Zhar,10 Iborra,20 Juanlu,21 Michel,23 Diop,9
Ángel,24 Martins,27 Roger and 29 Rubén.
LIGUE 1: NANCY - BORDEAUX
NANCY: Grégorini, Ndy Assembe, Sami, André Luiz, Puygrenier, Haïdara, Helder,
Loties, Muratori, Mangani, Karaboué, Sané, Grange, Alo'o Efoulou,
Mollo, Hammar, Bakar, Moukandjo.
BORDEAUX: Carrasso, Keita, Chalmé, Marange, Mariano, Planus, Poundjé, Sané,
Trémoulinas, Ben Khalfallah, Nguemo, Plasil, Biyogo-Poko, Sertic,
Bellion, Gouffran, Maurice-Belay, Saivet.
Good Luck.
Writtten 10/12
I did look at the La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Real Zaragoza,
not least because
of the scarcity of draws in Spain, with Primera games running at 18.79 %
this season, of course, these are a little lopsided as the big two do
not draw many, but at the same stage last season , they were running at
almost 27%. In betting terms the average draw was 3.71 after 15 rounds
last season and is 5.33 this time round.There are many ways you could
view these or use the data, I would suggest that taking the draw out of
the equation and opting for the bigger odds whenever possible would be
one option. For example, if you liked the home side here, -0.5 ball 2.16
would probably offer better long term returns than -0.25 ball 1.85, if
you favoured Zaragoza, the win odds of 3.60 might be better than 1.80
with the half ball handicap option, as with that you are effectively
betting both the draw and the away @ 3.60.
These
two have actually drawn just one match each this season and neither
should have ended all square, Zaragoza's came last time out at Mallorca,
where they scored early and were battered after that, with the hosts
missing a penalty, before equalising late. Rayo had an early season 0-0
home draw with Sevilla, where they played circa 25 minutes with ten men,
so were then playing for the draw and the visitors missed TWO penalties
!
Just
one
cleansheet in ten for the hosts, who have conceded a massive 25 times
over that sequence, Zaragoza are 2-1-4 on the road, their four defeats
have come at Real Madrid, Barcelona ,Valencia and Sociedad, so not
exactly an easy schedule and you could argue that they are 2-1-1 from
the only winable fixtures. They have
been creating a lot of chances, even averaging over 14 attempts on goal
in those losses to the "big 3", they seem certain to get chances tonight
and if forced to pick, I would suggest a very minimal bet on the
straight away win at that circa 3.60.
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