I like three matches tonight, one will be my strongest bet of the tournament so far, this is as much to do with the odds, which I feel are huge, as for any other reason. Value being the number one criteria for successful betting.
However, I will keep you waiting and start elsewhere.
Ashley Harkleroad did us a favour the other day and could easily be on her way back into the top 20 or so. In that win over Groenefeld, she kept the errors down to the absolute minimum and created a lot of break points. that may say as much about her opponent's poor play, but will have given the young American, a lot of confidence.
She meets Daniela Hantuchova, who came into the tournament with a mystery illness and has not convinced in her two performances so far, serving poorly, making a lot of unforced errors and giving up chances, that her opponents have not taken.
You are never sure which Daniela will turn up, she could come out and play beautifully, but at the odds available, we have to side with Harkleroad.
Next up, I like Robby Ginepri to take a set from James Blake. These two know each others game very well and have been practice partners for the past few weeks.
Ginepri has looked sharp and should be capable of getting back into the top 20, he doesn't have so many points to protect this year, so may not feel so much pressure, which was a problem last season. H2h is 2-2, with Robbie holding a 2-1 advantage on hardcourts.
A lay of James Blake 3-0 in sets, looks good to me.
My final choice is Alicia Molik over Patty Schnyder. The Australian had a fantastic early 2005 and got her ranking up to number 8. She then developed a complicated ear infection and eventually had almost a year out of the game. Molik made a quicker comeback than was at first expected and returned halfway through last year, struggling a little.
The winter break looks to have done her good, she won the wild card playoffs to get here and then played in the Hopman Cup, beating Harkleroad and Petrova.
Molik has played well here over the opening two rounds, averaging 11 aces and winning over 78% of first serves. She is hungry and looking to add to her record of a 4th round and quarter-final appearance, on her last two visits to the Australian Open.
Schnyder, has had a very nice career, but is very up and down and her highest ever ranking of 7, is only one spot above Molik's high and injury prevented the Australian from fulfilling her potential.
Cannot see why the Swiss player is so short, the MOST I could favour her is 45-55, we can back Alicia at 3.0 or 33%, so we HAVE to get involved.
The crowd will be massively on her side and so will I.
5 points Molik to beat Schnyder 3.0 Betfair.
LAY 2.5 points Blake to win 3-0 sets 2.20 Betfair ( max exposure 3 points).
2 points Harkleroad to beat Hantuchova 2.86 Betfair.
I am currently writing something for the NFL Championship games and will put it online, either late tonight, or early tomorrow morning.
Good Luck.
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