Sunday, April 30, 2006

25/1 winner yesterday .........

Pleasing won at the suggested 25-1 yesterday, infact, all 3 horse racing selections were placed, an each way treble at s.p (20-1,50-1,9-1) would have returned over a 261 point profit !

Little to play for in the Championship final round today, my suggestion is that the teams will try and entertain and we can expect goals and have bet accordingly.

I have written a posting about last round betting on golf, I will put it on the blog early this week.
In the meantime, here are my selections for today ......

Open Espana 2 points each way Robert Karlsson 5-1 (1/5 123) ladbrokes/ corals
3 points Brighton-Stoke over 2.25 goals asia 2.295
3 points Crewe-Millwall over 2.5 goals asia 2.02
2 points Preston-Leeds over 2.25 goals asia 2.295
4 points Reading-QPR over 2.5 goals 1.8 stan james
2 points Sheff Utd-C Palace over 2.5 goals 2.10 bet 365
3 points Chievo-Roma over 2.5 goals 1.92

I may add something later for the USPGA tournament in New Orleans.

Good Luck.

Saturday, April 29, 2006

The season is reaching a climax .......

So much at stake today, just cannot believe Middlesbrough have to play 3 tough games inside 96 hours.

3 points Everton 3.0 bet 365
2.5 points Oxford 3.40 corals/stan james
3 points Bristol Rovers 2.075 level ball asian
3 points Swansea 2.37 hills
4 points over 2,5 goals Birmingham-Newcastle 2.22 asia
4 points double Arbroath 1.20 -Cowdenbeath 1.40 general

For the first time I am giving 3 small horse bets, all at huge prices, these are three runners from the John Dunlop team, a stable I think is running into form.

1/2 point each way each
Stoop to Conquer 12-1 bet direct 3.40 Ripon
Soufah 20-1 general 4.30 Leicester
Pleasing 25-1 ladbrokes 6.05 Leicester

Good Luck

Friday, April 28, 2006

Money talks ........

Money talks in football, Real Madrid , argubly the richest club in the world, have won the European cup/ Champions League nine times.

Chelsea, with unlimited funds, are about to claim their second Premier League title in a row, 50 years after their only previous success. Manchester United, with their truly massive worldwide earnings in both sponsorship and shirt sales, had earlier dominated the league and are sure to continue to challenge. In an effort to compete, Arsenal have been forced to leave their beloved Highbury, move to the Emirates Stadium and even ditch the famous red and white shirts, at least for one year.

All this is fairly obvious, but in the lower leagues we can use this knowledge to our advantage. Look for "sleeping giants", clubs that have fallen on hard times but retained their supporter base and are showing signs of a revival.Most will eventually get back to their true position.

For example, Sheffield Wednesday, a premiership club in all but name, have managed to stabilize in the Championship and seem set to make a push to join "The Big Show" in the next year or two.

Carlise United, out of the football league twelve months ago, yet still getting gates approaching 10,000, are about to enter Division 1 and who knows what else is possible.

Nottingham Forest, european champions not too long ago, are now languishing in the 3rd tier of english football, but have started to get their act together. Able to spend £700k on a single player (more than the total yearly budget for some teams at this level) and with gates approaching 30,000, it was only a matter of time. If they manage to get into the playoffs this year, they should be strong favourites to win them. The final at Cardiff would see them with a 50,000 following, a huge advantage over Colchester or Brentford who would struggle to take 20% of that figure.

Hull City were struggling to retain their league status only a couple of years aago, now they are established in the Championship. The rightful place for a team from the 6th biggest city in England and who were commanding gates in excess of 20,000 in the lowest league.

Who else can we look out for ? Surely Leeds United will regain their place in the top teir eventually. Swansea with a new stadium and large supporter base seem sure to reach the Championship and sooner rather than later. Likewise, Bristol City, the west country giants, are far too big a club to lie dormant in Division 1 for too much longer. It may also pay to keep an eye on Blackpool, they appear to have new owners and funding and with the ambitious gaming plans for the area, they could be a team on the up.

Of course the same is true in reverse for the smaller clubs, teams like Crewe, Wimbledon and Swindon, that have over achieved in recent years, will, eventually, find their true level.

If we look at this years Football League, the Abramovich billions have secured the title for Chelsea. In the Championship, Reading , with the Madejski millions, fine stadium and large potential catchment area, have walked away with the title. At the other end, the two teams with the smallest crowds, Crewe and Brighton will be playing at a lower level next year.
OK , Forest have not won Division 1 but may yet earn promotion, it took time to adjust and every other team is "up" for a game against them. Carlisle are easily the biggest club in Division 2 and are going up, probably as champions, tiny Torquay are struggling.

You see the pattern, there will always be exceptions, but on the whole it pays to follow the money.

Two selections for today .............
2 points CLERMONT -1/2 goal asian line 2.175
3 points STADE LAVAL 2.25 william hill

both teams need the points to try and preserve their french division 2 status.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Tuesday Night Specials ........

3 points Forest Green +1/4 ball asian line 2.00
3 points Barnet +1/4 2.05
3 points Aston Villa -1/4 2.02

The first two selections simply cannot afford to lose tonight and I think the asian handicap is the way to go. One or both may have to settle for a point and we will still earn a profit betting this way.
Man City are in freefall and were outplayed in the reverse fixture just a few weeks ago. Think Villa will win, but just in case Mr Pearce gives City the "hairdryer" treatment, we will go -1/4 ball.

Can't find a bet in the Villareal-Arsenal tie, the spanish team will be better rested, suspect it will go to the wire, good luck to the gunners.

Monday, April 24, 2006

It's a Monday and its raining goals ........


3 points Fulham-Wigan over 2.5 goals 2.18 betfair
1.5 points over 3.5 goals 3.95 betfair

2.5 points Amiens-Sedan draw 2.80 general

Good Luck

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Saturday selections

5 points Portsmouth 1.40 general
2 points M K Dons 2.75 general
4.5 points Berwick 2/9 (1.22) general
3 points Kaiserslautern 2.10 general
2.5 points Nottm Forest 2.10 general
2.5 points Sociedad 3.50 general
3 points Celta Viga 1.80 general
3 points Alaves 2.30 paddy power
5.25 points Morecambe 1.57 stan james
1.5 points Swansea 3.20 stan james
0.25 yankee

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Asian Open Golf ...........

Only time to give my selections today ...........

2 points each way M A Jiminez 10-1 (1/4 12345) general
2 points top 5 Jiminez 3.25 (min odds) betfair
2 points top 5 Casey 4.50 (min odds) betfair

Today's 3 balls
1.5 points 00.10(bst) Bjorn 2.25 stan james/tote
1 point 00.30 Singh 3.0 ladbrokes
1.5 points 05.00 Dyson 2.625 victor chandler
2.5 points 05.10 Jiminez 1.80 ladbrokes
0.25 yankee all 4 2.20/3.00/2.50/1.80 ladbrokes

Back tomorrow. Good Luck.

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Playing tennis with a hangover .......

is not to be advised. After a quiet night in, sharing a takeaway with some friends and half a case of wine, I played my first tennis of the year yesterday. Despite losing heavily and thinking I was going to throw up every 30 seconds, it went better than I could ever have hoped.
Still nursing a bit of a "head" today, so goodness knows how I would have felt without the exercise !

Huddersfield can move into an automatic promotion place with a two goal win tonight, I understand that Andy Booth will not play, but still have to include them against a limited Chesterfield side. Having seen both teams live this season, I can confirm, that this will not be for the faint hearted, both like to get stuck in.

Rushden and Southport can both move out of the relegation zone with 3 points tonight and I feel goals in the juicy Champions League tie in Milan. Like all football lovers, yes I love football again, my hopes are on a Barcelona- Arsenal final. Ronaldinho and Henry on the same pitch would be memorable.

2 points Huddersfield 2.22 -1 goal asian line
1.5 points Rushden 3.75 stan james
1 point Southport 4.00 stan james
1.5 points over 2.25 goals Milan-Barcelona 2.19 asian

Good Luck

Monday, April 17, 2006

Easter rolls on......and on ......and on ........

Easter, hot cross buns, eggs, four Sundays in a row, will it ever end ? Thankfully, we have football.

I saw some interesting things in the first Easter fixtures and hopefully, we can use them to our advantage today. Watched the Cardiff-Sheff U game on sky, the welsh team looked like they were dreaming of the beach. They have had a good season after the struggles of last year, but feel they can now be opposed, Crewe have finally found some form (too late) and will be unchanged for the 9th match in a row. So, we have winner number one.

Nottm Forest are in fantastic form, with five wins in a row, a playoff place that looked very unlikely a month ago, is now within their grasp. All the teams above them have lost form and are struggling to win, victory today could well leave them in the top 6. They are a massive club at this level, the crowd today will approach 30,000, something most Championship teams can only dream of, surely they have come too far to mess up now.

Accrington earned promotion to the Football League on Saturday, congratulations to them, they have dominated the Conference this year. However, surely they had a little celebration, can they really be "up" for the game today. Visitors Scarborough are in a perilous position and must look for the three points, I cannot pass up the 5.50 on offer.

Milton Keynes were dead and buried a few weeks ago but have given theirselves a lifeline. They recently played Brentford, who are in line for automatic promotion, the Dons lost 1-0 but played the Bees off the park, missing chance after chance. Today they face Hartlepool, the loser will be almost down, the victor will have renewed hope, it should not be a draw as this will not help either. I can only take the team showing the best current form.

Doncaster Rovers seem to have given up on the season, they are set to give several youngsters an outing today, this means we can take a small chance on visitors Walsall. Rovers are a good side, I have seen them three times this year, but they have had horrendous injury problems, next season they will be real contenders in this league. However, for today, it's the Saddlers.

All other selections are the usual motivational picks.

0.4 points Lucky 15 stan james
Milton Keynes 2.25
Crewe 2.375
Nottm Forest 1.57
Stevenage 1.62

1.5 points Scarborough 5.50 stan james
3.5 points Nottm Forest 4/7 (1.57) stan james/bet 365
1 point Crewe 2.375 stan james
1 point Swindon 3.85 centrebet
1.5 points Milton Keynes 2.30
1 point Forest Green 2.375 stan james
1/2 point Walsall 4.0 paddy power/ stan james
1.5 points Stevenage 1.67 blue square
1 point dbl Stevenage-Nottm Forest 1.62 1.57 stan james

Saturday, April 15, 2006

When Saturday comes .........

A change of luck perhaps.

All I can say about the football at the moment is, the golf looks good.

So what do we do ? We reload of course, or, in the words of Denny Crane "lock and load".

2 points Elgin 2.0 tote
1 point Hartlepool 2.50 general
1.5 points Nottm Forest 2.40 365/paddy power
1 point Leyton Orient 3.00 redbet/parbet
2 points Lincoln 1.775 pinnacle

any 2,3,4 from 4 11 bets @ 1/4 point tote
Lincoln 1.67
Elgin 2.0
Hartlepool 2.375
Forest 2.40

Good Luck

Friday, April 14, 2006

Good Friday specials ...........

A few notes about four matches taking place tonight ...........

Metz find theirselves drinking in the last chance saloon, a win and nothing less will do. They travel to Toulose, a team in poor form and waiting for their summer vacation.

A win for York can lift them into a playoff place and Cambridge are without one or two starters.

Yeovil are faced with a very difficult trip to Forest on monday and can almost secure their Division 1 status with a win tonight.

Inter have suffered a week of abuse from their supporters, AC will have one eye on next weeks Champions League tie and can ill afford any injuries. A draw is always likely but a level ball bet on the asian handicap, looks the way to go.

1 point Metz 4.50 stan james France 1
1.5 points York 2.50 general Conference
1.5 points Yeovil 2.20 stan james Division 1
1.5 points Inter 2.37 level ball asian line Serie A

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

News from Italy ..........

Tonight Roma play at home to Palermo in the Italian Cup semi-final 2nd leg, Palermo will go to the final with a draw or win. This would earn them a place in europe next year as final opponents Inter, will qualify through their league position.

What makes this match extremely interesting is the weekend league fixture which is, yes you have guessed it, Palermo- Roma, a vital match for Roma in their quest for a Champions League place.

I do not know if a "deal" has been done, but there are plenty of rumours to this effect, or whether one team will be more motivated tonight and less so at the weekend. However, I feel a bet on Palermo tonight is the right call........

3 points the draw 3.25 stan james
1 point Palermo 5.20 general

There was this irishman, frenchman, german, brazilian, and .........

The only Premiership fixture today may not involve many english players (2-3?), but seems very likely to produce goals.

Portsmouth have scored 11 in their last 4 outings and Arsenal have hit the net 10 times, in the same period. Thierry Henry has a wonderful record against Pompey, scoring 8 times in six meetings !

The European Golf Tour reaches China ! So much for that geography o- level.
Paul Casey is a very talented golfer and seems to be coming into form, he won this event last year, albeit at a different course. I think he will be motivated by missing out on the Masters and the chance to upset/abuse a few more americans, it is time he got his career back on track.

On the US tour, Davis Love returns to Hilton Head where he is FIVE times champion. Maybe he is not in the very best of form but must enter calculations. The same comments can also be applied to last years runner up Jim Furyk and I take these two against the field.

1.5 points each way (1/4 12345) CASEY 11/1 tote
1 point each way LOVE 16/1 general
1/2 point each way FURYK 14/1 general
2 x 1/4 point each way doubles

2 points PORTSMOUTH-ARSENAL over 2.5 goals 2.02 betfair
2 points THIERRY HENRY 2.20 blue square
1 point MIDDLESBORO 2.10 general

Good Luck

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

They call it "the beautiful game" .........

I love football, just not today. It IS the beautiful game, just not today. I could never be sick of football, but I am today. Of course, I do not include my own, beloved team, in these comments.

Saturday was a disaster, two teams leading 2-0 at half time and both contrive to snatch a draw....... COME ON ! How is this possible ?

Thank the Lord, or the gentleman who invented golf and Bobby Jones for designing the Augusta National g.c. for the about turn in fortune. Mickleson won and Goosen tied for 3rd place, ensuring big profits on the golf and a small one for the week, however unlikely that may have seemed Saturday evening.

Profit/Loss on the week + 1.885 pts

Profit/Loss to date + 9.385 pts

Saturday, April 08, 2006

You gotta be brave in the state of Georgia ............

Well, the US Masters has gone pretty much as expected so far, the course is playing tough and experience is key.

Fred Couples, 22 straight cuts here, is in contention and Charles Coody, almost 69 years old, shot an amazing 74, a full ten strokes better than Charles Howell, nearly half a century his junior! Hang your head in shame ! To be fair, I understand that young Charles is in the middle of some swing changes, so maybe we can excuse him but definitely a player to avoid at present.

One or two debutants are playing well but have shown inexperience on occasion, notably Oberholser chipping when he should be putting at the 16th.

Light rain is forecast today, which could make conditions a little easier but Sunday promises sun,
if the greens get hard, this could get brutal. I am happy with my selections at the moment, the cream should continue to rise, no freak results here, only the best of the best can hope to win.

All of the earlier soccer selections are teams desperate to win. Mainz and Strasbourg are battling to avoid relegation, the others are fighting for their positions at the other end of the table. All of their opponents have little, or nothing to play for.

Lets hope they can produce a decent profit. Good Luck.

Saturday ......... and business as usual ...PART 1

This will be a very short post with today's selections only, I will write back in an hour with some information and my views on the first two days of the Masters.

1 pt MAINZ 2.10 general quote Bundesliga
1 pt STRASBOURG 1.90 general quote French league 1
1 pt SWANSEA 2.50 stan james England div 1
3 pts QUEENS PARK 1.50 stanjames/bet365/expekt Scotland div 3
2 pts INVERNESS 1.80 general Scottish Premier
1 pt ABERDEEN 2.10 general Scottish Premier
3 pts NORTHAMPTON 1.55 centrebet England div 2
3.5 pts RANGERS 2/7 (1.285) ladbrokes Scottish Premier

Back Soon

Thursday, April 06, 2006

US Masters golf ........

The US Masters gets under way today at the lengthened Augusta National course in Georgia.

Changes made since last year mean that the big hitters are likely to be even more favoured than usual. In a reduced field and with a lot of "dead wood" and doubts about Tiger's form and fathers health, this is a tournament to get involved in.

I will start with a few wagers today and update with some observations tomorrow.........

1 point each way (1/4 12345) MICKLESON 6-1 general quote
1 point each way GOOSEN 10-1 general quote

place only Top 5 (Betfair)
3 points Mickleson 2.4
2 points Goosen 3.8
2 points Els 3.5

Today's 3 ball
1 point SINGH 2.0 to beat STENSON and OBERHOLSER Tote/Stan James/Betfair

Good Luck

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

A hard way to make an easy living .......

Well, the Italian draw saved the week ..... almost.

2006 has not been kind so far, if something can go wrong, it will and has.

PMA, a positive mental attitude is vital either playing or betting sports but, honestly, it is hard sometimes. For example, in the past week or so I have taken "overs" (3 goals or more) on three football matches, ALL were 1-1 within the first 18 minutes of play. That means with 80% of the game remaining, all that is required is one more goal, something that has already happened twice, simple. Of course now there is an invisible shield protecting both goals.Each game reads the same, or close enough, two disallowed goals,two kicked off the line, four hit the bar/post, one missed penalty and goalkeepers are now playing as if their first born's life depended on it.

So now I must try and stay positive when all I really want to do is throw the tv out of the nearest window and watch it smash into tiny pieces. What I REALLY do not need is the phone to ring as the final whisle blows and my sister-in-law, who has never had a bet in her life, to say, in a very pleasant way, "hi","how are things". I know, evil, isn't she ?

Today`s selections follow, all are "motivational " picks...........

1.5 points YORK CITY 2.25 Expekt ......Conference
1.5 points EXETER 2.70 Centrebet ......... Conference
1 point DARLINGTON 3.05 Expekt....... Division 2
5 points COWDENBEATH 1.22 Centrebet.... Scottish div 3

All selections are, as usual, currently quoted at higher odds on the exchanges, Betfair, Redbet etc.

Profit/Loss to date + 7.5 points

Good Luck

Motivational speaking .......

When it comes to sports betting, motivation is the single most important element.

Think about your own working life, compare days when you are enthused and motivated, to those where you are just going through the motions. In the first, time flies, good things happen, on the bad days, time drags and mistakes occur.

When sportsmen are 'up' for an event, especially playing less motivated opponents, they are prepared to 'go that extra yard' and can be backed with confidence.

Look at events/matches from the players/teams viewpoint.

PGA golf, two tournaments to go before the end of the regular tour. You are 135 on the money list, top 125 will earn you your 'card' for next year, the difference between playing for $5-6m per week on the main tour, or for $100/$200K on the Nationwide. To put this into perspective, last year 125th place finisher on the PGA tour earned in excess of $626,000, same placing on the Nationwide, just over $29, 000, probably not enough to cover expenses.
Pressure? Sure, but real motivation to produce the goods. Likewise, the players ranked around the 30 mark, top 30 will get you into the Tour Championship, where 1st place is worth $1.2m and last place is worth six figures, plenty of television coverage and sponsors very happy.

Tennis is exactly the same, every tournament carries ranking points. Ranking position means direct entry into events, which is automatic prize money and not having to pre-qualify, a huge incentive for the 'journeyman' player.

Soccer, you are a professional footballer, albeit an average one. Your team has struggled all season, now with a handful of matches to play, you are bottom of Division 2. What are your prospects? The bottom 2 teams are relegated, this means that you're no longer in the league, you are in the Conference. Maybe your team will go part time, now you are no longer a full time pro, that's allowing for the club not trimming the squad and letting some players go. Now, are you motivated for the rest of the season?

Chester City was in this position on the 29th March, bottom of the entire football league and without a win since, well, forever. However, that night they won away to Boston (odds 4.30) and three days later scored a last minute winner at home to Maccelesfield (2.30). So Saturday evening they are 4 points off the bottom, with 4 teams below them, the players have a spring in their step and maybe a future as a professional footballer.

Look for teams/players that have an extra incentive to win, especially against opponents that are not quite so motivated.