Tuesday, July 31, 2007

TUESDAY NEWS ............

It has been very difficult for me to blog over the past two days, hopefully everything will be back to normal tomorrow. Just a few lines about three of today's mathes.
Brondby have been dire over the opening weeks of their season and meet a Chelsea team looking to bounce back from the loss to Rangers. They want to go into the weekend game against Man Utd, with a positive result under their belts.

4 points Chelsea -1 ball 1.93 asian line


Wigan are 100% in pre season, 4 wins and a 10-1 goal difference, with just two friendlies remaining, they want to carry that form into the new season and are sending a very strong team this evening. Barnsley are without 3 key defenders.

5.5 points Wigan -1/2 ball 1.97 asian line


Rangers are in excellent shape and are playing very well at present. They are looking to make a fast start in the domestic campaign and are determined to score as many as possible this evening.

Zeta went through against Kaunas in the first round, but were very lucky and were 3-0 down inside 17 minutes in Lithuania. The team from Montenegro are clearly a class or two below Rangers, especially one already at the top of their form.

5 points Rangers -2.25 goals 1.95 asian line

Good Luck.

Monday, July 30, 2007


Halmstad look weaker up front being without the services of the suspended Djuric and having sold Tahirovic.

Gais have picked up and have lost just once in 5 starts and conceded just 5 goals in 7 away starts. They have a good recent record against Halmstad.

4.5 points Gais +3/4 ball 1.70 asian line.

Good Luck.

Sunday, July 29, 2007


ASIAN CUP FINAL ..... Iraq - Saudi Arabia

Saudi are giants in the region and although a little suspect defensively, have no problems at the other end of the pitch, where they have scored 12 times.

Iraq will probably endeavour to keep thing tight and look for another draw, which has been the result in 3 of their last 5 games. This is their first ever final and they are bound to be a little nervous.

Saudi won the earlier meeting this year between these two 1-0 and they should do so again, maybe by an extra goal.

4.5 points Saudi Arabia -1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.


I fancy goals here.

Stromsgodset are averaging 2.86 goals for all home games, 3.0 for their last 10 starts and are "over" in 3 from 4. Brann are 3.5 on the road, 3.8 in the last 10 and "over" in 6 from 6.
H2h last 4 are "over" at an average of 6.75 goals !

5 points "over" 2.75 goals 1.80 asian line.
Good Luck.



Furyk is and has been for many years, one of the best final round players on the USPGA tour, ranking inside the top dozen or so, virtually every year.

Perez's sunday scoring has picked up this year and he has posted a few low totals, but this looks a mismatch. In the last two seasons he has ranked 186-183, Furyk 4 and 12.

I do not really understand why, the rookie Marino, who has yet to finish higher than 6th on either of the main tours, has been made such a strong favourite to beat Maruyama.

The Japanese player has not really clicked in round 4 scoring this time round, but has ranked 16-21-36, in the previous three years and a closing 66 in the Travelers Championship, hinted at a return to that level of form. He beat Marino by 2 strokes yesterday and we have to back him today.

6 points Furyk 1.67 to beat Perez Stan James// exchanges

5 points Maruyama to beat Marino 2.27 Pinnacle ... 2.25 GENERAL

Good Luck.

Saturday, July 28, 2007


Have to stick with Leicester in the other game, as I explained in midweek, it is not in Martin Allen's nature to take things easy in these type of fixtures and he likes to get a run (which they are doing) going. He has all his new signings with him and DJ Campbell will have an extended run out today.

Kilmarnock have played 4 friendlies, are yet to win and have conceded 7 goals in the last three, including a 3-1 home loss to Nottingham Forest. That form was hardly franked as it was sandwiched between losses to Chesterfield and Dunfermline, for the english club. Killie are now resigned to losing star player, Stephen Naismith, who is being chased by several bigger clubs. Even if he plays, with a transfer imminent, he cannot be fully committed.

5 points Leicester City level ball asian line 1.94.

Good Luck.


Some sites have listed the first match as Bohemians Prague, I can absolutely assure you that it is Bohemians of the Eircom League Ireland, despite the fact that they played a league game last night.

This is the first match of a mini Irish tour for Sunderland and they are very motivated to do well. The coach, Roy Keane and owner, Niall Quinn and his consortium are all Irish, as are six of the players, all of whom have travelled. They have taken a VERY strong squad, including all six new signings. The Irish contingent will be keen to do well, especially Quinn, who is giving a series of talks to local businessmen, on the tour.

Bohemians will have fielded their strongest team last night, an away derby game in Dublin, which they lost 1-0. They will either have a "B" side out tonight, or some tired legs.

6 points Sunderland -1.5 goals 2.25 Blue Square// 2.15 + asian line.

Good luck.

Friday, July 27, 2007


I am reproducing today's email below, one selection has already won, the other three are still active" , the current quotes are in red and those will count as the blog selections.




I favour Starace in the first of these, he is very much a clay court specialist and plays 3/4 of his matches, on the surface.

He has had two nice wins over Christophe Rochus and Florian Mayer, who looked suited by the conditions here.

This will be tough, Seppi arrives in good form, having made a surprise final in Gstaad and beating Lopez and Ferrero here, although, eventually he must feel the strain of so many matches, in such a short period. .

Starace leads the h2h 2-0, both , as you might expect on clay, dropping just one set. Infact, winning his four sets, for the loss of just 7 games.

I am going to chance a little, at a big price, on the Frenchman Simon, who beat Canas in their only previous meeting 7-6 6-4 in Rome, earlier this year.

He opened here with a pleasing win over Davydenko, which proves his well being, if nothing else and his game, matches up well with his Argentine opponent.

Canas has retired twice recently, including last week in Stuttgart and there has to be concerns about lingering thigh and abdominal problems.

4 points Starace 1.83 general WON
3 points Simon 3.29 Pinnacle// 3.35 + exchanges. NOW 3.15


Ligue 2 restarts today, which is always fun on a friday evening. It went against type last season, with the opening 5 rounds averaging 2.65 goals per game. Let's hope for the same this time round.

The hosts are widely accepted to have the most potent attacking force in the division, at least on paper.

Guincamp improved greatly in the second half of last season,they have made some changes in defence, which may take time to gel and at the other end, look to have a few goals in them too. Obviously the "over", especially with such a low goal line, for me.

5 points "over" 2 goals 1.89 asian line. NOW 1.82


These two met in the group stage, when a draw suited both and it ended 0-0, with the Greeks missing a penalty. Like the senior team in Euro 2004, this young Greece side continue to be underated. Feel that this will be VERY tight and see no reason for Spain to be so short. I have to take the "outsiders" plus the draw.

4.5 points Greece +1/2 ball 1.78 asian line. NOW 1.73

Good Luck.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

THURSDAY .......... a quiet day at the office

It didn't start out that way, I was looking at 4 bets, but the bookmakers have not released odds on two friendly matches and my tennis selection, has been backed in from an early 2.20 down to 1.97 , therefore the real value has gone, hope that some of you managed to get on. So that leaves us with .......


Going to take a little on the draw in this match.The home team are unbeaten at Strandvallen, where they are 3-4-0 and have conceded just 4 goals.

A point will probably suffice for the visitors, it will give them a narrow advantage over 3rd placed Sundsvall, who are one spot behind them in the table, with those two scheduled to meet on Monday.

Last 3 h2h meetings have finished all square, with both teams scoring in each, I expect something very similar this evening.

3 points Mjallby-Atvidaberg draw 3.40 + , there is a little 3.60 on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007


I found an internet link to listen to the Brentford game and was in two minds whether or not to listen to it. As a supporter, I want them to do well, but had put up Reading as a selection.

However, when the Bees equalised, curiosity got the better of me, as I made connection the first thing I heard was how well Brentford were playing, the next was 1-2, followed very quickly by 1-3 and then 1-4 .... game over, final score 1-6. Therefore, I do not know what to make of the Bees performance, except that it seems like another very long season.

Team news in these friendlies is so absolutely vital and just like last season, I expect to milk these in the build up to the new football season.

The only two email selections that were not on the blog today,both won .....

4 points Wigan -1/2 ball 1.83

5 points Bayern Munich -1/4 ball 1.73

Good Night !


The Brentford -Reading game can be heard live here http://www.bbc.co.uk/london/ click "listen live".


My team, Brentford, have some real selection problems for the visit of Reading and the side will basically pick itself, with several of the "better" players missing. In 4 pre season friendlies against low level non league teams (non -Conference) , they have been dire and are yet to register a win !

Reading are coached by former Bees boss, Steve Coppell and his team contains half a dozen players, who have worn the red and white stripes. Not sure what team he will send, but to be honest, it might not matter, they should win comfortably enough.

I sent the above to email subscibers this morning and can update the Reading team news now .... in a nutshell, they look very strong..... Seol, Hunt, Kitson, Shorey and Cisse will start, with Lita, Doyle and Harper on the bench, with all 3 expected to play some part.

5 points Reading -1 ball asian line 1.78.

Good Luck.


I am siding with Japan, who do create a lot of chances, despite lacking a cutting edge, in Nakamura they have, probably, the best player in the tournament. Their massive advantage here is that they have been based in Hanoi, the venue for today's semi-final, for over three weeks and had over 24 hours extra rest.

Saudi pose a real threat up front, but are not as organised as the Japanese. They have had a gruelling 12 hour journey from Jakata and the schedule has not been kind to them.

4 points Japan -1/4 ball 1.83 asian line.

Good Luck>

Tuesday, July 24, 2007


My strongest idea of the evening is to oppose Partick, even though they did us a favour last week. That was an ante Falkirk bet anyway and the home side have since put in a poor performance, losing 2-1 on home soil to Ayr, they will be without 3-4 regulars this evening.

I know City boss Martin Allen's approach to these pre season games very well, he likes to play a lot of fixtures and get a good run of results going. He has taken a very strong squad to Scotland for this mini tour, including most of his 12 new signings, the newest of which, DJ Campbell, who I also "know" from his time at Brentford, will want a goal or two, as soon as possible. Pretty sure that if starting, he will get one this evening and that Leicester will collect another win.

They beat Notts County 3-0 on saturday, a win that could easily have been much bigger and Allen will want to feed off that and keep the run going.

5.5 points Leicester -3/4 ball 2.o3 asian line.

Good Luck.


West Ham make the short trip to Orient for Martin Ling's testimonial and are likely to send a strong squad for one of their own, Ling growing up within earshot of Upton Park, especially with many of the team needing match practice.

Even with another game tomorrow evening, Green, Ferdinand, Etherington, Ashton, Bowyer, Mullins, Dailly and Cole, are all listed as starters. That should be enough to secure the win.

4.5 points West Ham -3/4 ball 1.82 asian line.

Back later.


I have decided to just concentrate on the friendly matches involving UK teams for the rest of today and am intrested in three matches.

Wednesday , under their VERY astute coach Brian Laws, are a team going places and I expect them to challenge for promotion this season. They are an ambitious team and the rumours are that Patrick Kluivert will be taking part tonight, as a trialist. he was certainly at the training ground yesterday. They were unbeaten on a 3 match tour of Holland, playing decent enough teams, despite twice being reduced to ten men.

The home team, could have a good year and have made some decent signings, but there is a good two divisions between these two and with the visitors huge travelling support, Wednesday, are likely to have the bulk of the crowd behind them. No point in trying out Kluivert, or whoever the "mystery" trialist is, with a bunch of youngsters, so we can expect a strong starting eleven.

4 points Sheffield Wednesday -1/2 ball 1.95 asian line.

More to follow .................


This is being played in Hong Kong and despite the evening kick off, due to the humidity, conditions will be gruelling.

Both of these teams are showing a lot of ambition. Pompey are looking to build on the success of last season and Lawrie Sanchez has been allowed to flash the cash, spending almost £25m on 7 new signings, Fulham are looking for a european push, as opposed to a relegation battle, this season.

Diomansy Kamara choose Fulham ahead of Portsmouth, stating that he thought he had more chance of silverware, with the London club.

Think this will be played at a very low tempo and we can expect both teams to use a lot of substitutions. Harry Redknapp has already said that he will use everyone of his 17 named players. I think that the Fulham squad are a little ahead of Portsmouth, some of whose players, like new signing John Utaka, have done almost no training.

Sanchez is not the type to take anything easy and he has already started his strongest eleven , or close to it, in two meaningless friendlies against lesser teams. Feel that they will be a little hungrier and given the conditions and how the match is likely to be played, with lots of stop/starts/ water breaks , I really like them receiving the small handicap.

5 points Fulham +1/4 ball asian line 2.02.

Good Luck.


Good Morning !

There are a lot of matches I am interested in today and expect to post at least three selections on the blog. Going to start inside the next hour with a selection for one of the early kick offs, so please check back.

Back soon.

Monday, July 23, 2007


BP are starting to come to terms with life in Allsvenskan, they have made some new signings, who seem to have settled in well and are on a 3 match unbeaten run, recording two wins. They look set to be unchanged for tonight's game.

The visitors are in freefall, sit bottom of the table and have lost their last 5 starts. This evening, they will be without two key players in Malmqvist and Mensah.

I expect both will look for the 3 points, seeing this as a fixture where there are "easy" points up for grabs. They have tougher games against Halmstad and AIK respectively at the weekend. Their could be goals, last 9 meetings have been "over", averaging 4.33 per game and sharing six, in the reverse fixture.

However, I am going to stick with the home team.

4.5 points BP -1/4 ball 1.80 asian line.

Good Luck.


On what is a fairly quiet Monday, I have put two selections on the email service and will probably post at least one of these on the blog this afternoon.

We recorded another winning week on the site, which now makes number 50, out of just 68 weeks (almost 74% of the time), results are below.

BLOG .... 20 bets , 11 winners (55%), profit + 7.89 points, ROI +9.17% (86).
EMAIL SERVICE .... 30 bets, 19 winners (63.33%), profit + 25.91 points, ROI +18.64% (139).

Good Luck.

Sunday, July 22, 2007



VJ is a fine final round player and I expect him to put in a bit of a charge today. KJ has played a lot of high pressure golf recently and looked a little drained yesterday.

Ernie played extremely well on saturday, he had six birdies and would have been breathing down Sergio's neck, were it not for an 8 at the par 5 , 6th hole, where he went out of bounds. That was bad luck as his drive hit the path and could have bounced anywhere. He is not totally out of this yet and is capable of shooting very low. There is some 6.0 for him in the without Garcia and Stricker market, which you might wish to consider.

Once again Stricker proved what a fine weekend player he is yesterday and his iron shots were sensational. Despite his lead, Sergio is bound to be nervous and I think he will be cautious in the extreme, Garcia will not win any extra for a 4 stroke victory and the American can take advantage of this and at least, close the gap.

5 points Singh to beat Choi 1.83 general

5.5 points Els to beat Broadhurst 1.57 Hills/ Chandlers

4.5 points Stricker to beat Garcia 2.15 Pinnacle ... 2.25 general

Good Luck.


Having already given an outright bet, earlier in the week, to email subscribers on Argentina, I do not want to get overly involved today. I still expect them to win, but they do have a few injury concerns, especially in defence.

Think this will be very tactical in the early stages and the Czech's to try and keep things tight.

The half time draw is available at 2.25 and that looks the best value option to me. They met in the group stage, honours even in a 0-0 draw.

4 points half time draw 2.25 general quote.

Good Luck.

Saturday, July 21, 2007


No prizes for guessing that I am taking the "over" here.

The hosts are averaging 2.5 goals all season, 2.8 in their last 10.

Sylvia are 2.73 and 2.6 respectively and "over" in their last 4 starts, conceding 2 + in each.

4.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.81 asian line.

Good Luck.



The first two bets are standard 2 balls and are available almost everywhere, the third has been put up by some asian companies and is available at top odds, with Pinnacle.

Scott is playing well and is -3 for his last 25 holes, with just one dropped shot, Jacquelin is +3 for the same stretch of holes and I expect the young Aussie to grind his way into contention today.

As we have discussed many times in recent weeks, Stricker is one of the best "weekend" players on tour and he has yet to let us down, so no reason to oppose him here.Watney is a promising youngster, but in his first major tournament outside North America.

It is a bit risky to take the same player in two match ups, but Scott looks too big a price to let a small interest pass here. Tiger was wayward yesterday and could easily have shot 2-3 shots more.

5 points Scott to beat Jacquelin 1.80 general/ 1.83 with blog sponsors SUNDERLANDS
5 points Stricker to beat Watney 1.80 general.
2.5 points Scott to beat Woods 3.13 Pinnacle.

Good Luck.


I will be posting 2-3 bets on the blog today and will have the first of these online within the hour.

Bit unlucky yesterday, Pettersson again coming from behind, only to blow it at the last hole.

He was the only loser on the email service, which has given 10 winners from the last 11 selections.

I have a problem this weekend, due to the weather conditions and the fact that some builders decided to sabotage my broadband connection. I have to leave home to post, so my blogging will be a little limited, until Tuesday. However, there will definitely be something each day and the emails should be unaffected, although a little late.

Back shortly.

Friday, July 20, 2007


15.53 cet LEHMAN- O'HERN

I have to stick with Carl Petterson for the reasons outlined before round 1. He turned a three shot defecit around yesterday and it is how you play the closing holes here, that determine your round. Still think that there is plenty of value in his odds.

Tom Lehman gets one final chance from me, he started very poorly yesterday and was +4 for the first 10 holes. However, he regrouped and played very nicely on the back nine, pulling back 2 strokes. I expect him to make a better start today and he looks a decent price to beat O'Hern, who was 3 stokes worse than the american for the final 8 holes.

4 points Pettersson to beat Immelman 1.98 Pinnacle.
4.5 points Lehman to beat O'Hern 2.17 Pinnacle

Good Luck.


The South-East of England has woken up to monsoon like conditions, with large areas flooded within minutes. I have a VERY strong selection for a match taking place in the UK today, but will have to check a last minute local forecast before putting it online.

Starting with yesterday's early morning game at theU20 World Cup in Canada, email subscribers have received 7 selections, all of which have won ....

Czech Republic U20 1/4 ball 2.06 4 points WON

Reading -3/4 ball 1.85 4.5 points WON

KJ Choi 1.714 5 points WON

Carl Pettersson 2.05 4.5 points WON

Wigan -3/4 ball 1.95 5.5 points WON

Partick +1/2 ball 1.92 4 points WON

Argentina U20 1.82 4 points WON

So, almost 27 points profit in just 24 hours.

Four of these were given on the blog, details of the email service can be found on this link.

Good Luck.

Thursday, July 19, 2007


I hope someone has told Falkirk that they have a match this evening.

They only returned on sunday from an overseas tour and played a higher profile home game with Millwall last night. On their website, they described that game as the first of a run of home fixtures !

I can only believe that they are not treating this as a first team game, they make no reference to this match on their home site. Of course, I could be adding 2+2 and making 5, but I do not think so.

This is Partick's first home fixture and I feel sure that they will want a positive result. They will introduce some trialists ( 3 french players), during the match, but are otherwise putting out as strong a team as possible.

4 points Partick +1/2 ball 1.92 asian line.

Good Luck.


Wigan, their new coach and a host of expensive mew signings, are taking this pre season tour seriously and are looking to record a string of wins. They took a 2-0 lead over FC Zwolle inside 12 minutes and then took their foot off the gas, in their season opener. Some of the lower league British clubs have recorded very nice wins in Holland, during this pre season and the top 2-3 teams aside, there is obviously a huge gulf in class between the respective countries. If Wigan put in any effort at all and I have to feel that they will, there can only be one result.

4.5 points Wigan -3/4 ball asian line 1.90.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007


Brondby are planning a title challenge this year, another anonymous year in mid table, will be unacceptable to such a massive club. To be honest, they were very unlucky with injuries last time round, missing almost an entire team at times and just were unable to win away from home.

They are keen to put the away jinx behind them in this opener. Brondby travelled to Ebsjerg 3 days ago to prepare, something that is unheard of in a country the size of Denmark. They have improved the squad with the signings of Madsen, Mikkelsen and Gislason and are my choice to beat the home team, who are missing several players, two of them key starters.

Brondby have lost just once in 12 visits.

4 points Brondby -1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.

Good Luck.



Howell has just returned from a long term injury and is, 45- missed cut, on his two recent starts. He has a very poor Open record, missing the cut on his last 5 starts.


Choi is 22-16-41-mc in his last 4 appearances and is in tremendous form, last six times out on the US Tour he has a 24-23-24-1-mc-1 record. We can forgive him the missed cut, sandwiched as it was, between a pair of wins.

Immelman is in dire form and has mised 5 of his last 6 cuts, finishing down the field in the other. In 4 Open visits he is 43-53-42-15.

Pettersson has a similar 43-57-8 record in just 3 starts, but his current form is on a different level. The Swedish player has made his last 9 cuts, finishing 8-19-22-28-52-31-17-15-6, this current form,allied to his fine 8th place last year, leave me bemused as to why, Immelman has been made such a strong favourite with Pinnacle. Pettersson's clubs went missing for a while earlier this week in transit from the US, as did 5 other players too, but I understand that they turned up later the same day, maybe some people are over reacting to this.

These two can alternatively be backed in theit traditional 3 balls, which most bookmakers quote, the two players joining the "party" are Richard Sterne and Nick Faldo respectively. Obviously this is more risky, but you do get better odds.

5 points Choi to beat Howell 1.692 Pinnacle.
4.5 points Pettersson to beat Immelman 2.07 Pinnacle.



Verplank is in excellent form and has a win and 5 top 8 finishes in his last 7 starts, a model of consistency.He is 15-mc-30-37-mc-7-23-31 in 7 visits, 3 of which would have earned him a placing in this market and 3 others left him "knocking on the door". Now he arrives in tip top form and it is hard not to see him contending.

0.5 points Verplank outright 19.0 Expekt
3.5 points Verplank place only (4 places) 4.60 Expekt.

OR he could be backed each way (2 points ew) @ circa 17.0 across the board, most bookmakers carry this market, including Stan James.

We will collect on the place part at least, if he finishes in the top 4, or 5, if one is Woods, of the US players.

Good Luck.


These two lost their opening matches in high scoring encounters, Russia 3-2 to Germany in a match where they created a lot of chances and Serbia 5-2 to France, despite leading 2-0 against 10 men !

Serbia wilted in the heat, but even so, that was a bad position to lose from, they also created a lot of goalscoring opportunities.

With France and Germany playing later in the day, these two can hardly sit back and both have to look for maximum points. I favour Russia, but feel that the best option is "over" the 2.5 goal line.

I put this on the email service this morning at 1.98 and the odds have really been slashed, guess everyone has the same idea. Still think that this will oblige, but have cut the stakes accordingly.

3.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.


I have decided to post some golf bets today, found a couple of very strong prices and simply got tempted. Going to send them to email subscribers shortly and will put them online this afternoon, not in the morning.

Good Luck.


I am going to stick with China, who have not let us down yet, they are set to be without a couple of players, but their squad is strong and they should be able to handle the situation.

They look the more talented of the two teams, will have almost all the support in the crowd and are looking for the win, that will keep them in Malaysia for the quarter finals.Uzbekistan have to win to progress and that should leave space for the quicker Chinese players to exploit. The two met in a friendly just a few months back in Macau, with China winning comprehensively 3-1, simply do not see them losing today and going home, which would be a disaster. Giving up a 1/4 ball, we only lose half the stake with the draw, which I see as the maximum downside and therefore make this a very strong bet.

5 points China -1/4 ball 2.01 asian line.

Good Luck.


I am sticking with the football action today, where we have plenty of interesting match ups.

Just a few words about the Open Championship which gets underway early tomorrow morning, I am not going to post an outright selection at this stage, prefering to wait until the tournament starts to take shape. However, I am very likely to post some first round 3 ball or match up bets, which will be posted early tomorrow morning.

Tiger Woods is very pleased with his form and preparation ,seeming extremely confident about his prospects, during interviews this week. Ernie Els has forgotten how to win, but class is permanent and he could suddenly click, putting, which has been his weakness recently, is not as important here, if you can ever say that about the most vital part of the game. Els missed just 8 of 42 fairways in his last 3 rounds at Loch Lomond, putting in a fine closing round, which almost took him into a playoff. He is top 3 in 5 of the last 7 Opens and looks sure to go close.

Back Later.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007



At this stage of their pre season's the British clubs are ,understandably, a couple of weeks ahead of their Spanish counterparts and it has shown in the results so far.

Santander have yet to score a goal in their two matches , including a 5-0 hammering by Guadalajara, who went on to lose 2-0 to Wanderers.

Bolton seem to be taking this seriously, they will progress to the final with a win and are set to give Anelka, Faye and Diouf all starting places.

Knowing his competitive nature and the fact that he has just taken charge, pretty sure that Sammy Lee would like some silverware to take home.

4.5 points Bolton -1/2 ball 1.80 asian line.

Good Luck.


We are now down to 9 players and full details of chip counts and seat positions, can be found below. They are battling for a first prize of $8.25m , with everyone guaranteed at least $526k.

My choice remains Lee Watkinson, who is far and away the most experienced big time, live tournament player remaining. He has an excellent final table record in major events, in the last 3 years he is 4-2-2-2-3-1 in his 6 finals. His win and bracelet coming in the $10k PLO event at last years WSOP, that will stand him in good stead today. We can be sure that some of the other players would not have wanted the rest day, which probably meant two sleepless nights/days, instead of one.

Of the others ....

Kalmar is a Brit (hooray) and got into the tournament via the very last satellite, he was in dire form before that, which just proves that it is best to get all your luck in one go !

Hilm the chip leader is Danish, but lives in the UK and is a full time online pro.

Rahme is a South African and, at 62 , is the oldest player at the table, he will no doubt have welcomed the rest day.

Kravchenko already has a bracelet, the first Russian to ever win one and five cashes at this years WSOP. He is the shortstack, but things can change very quickly, no doubt he will be looking to get busy early, with it costing 500k + to play a round. A little luck early and he could go a long way.

Khan at 22 yo is the youngest player left, a "sit and go" specialist on Pokerstars, where he has played almost 20,000 of those short handed tournaments. Including 43 at one time ! Try to play 4 and see how easy it is. He is very much the table clown and seems to be enjoying the limelight, however, you get the impression that he is as much interested in raising his profile and getting his "15 minutes", as winning the thing !

Lam is the most most experienced of the three remaining players, this is the third WSOP, for the Canadian based Vietnamese poker pro, who has enjoyed very limited tournament success previously.

Very little is known of the other two, who are really "living the dream".

1.25 points each way 1/5 odds 123 Watkinson 9.0 Stan James/ Ladbrokes.

Good luck.


I am going to post at least two selections on the blog for today's action and will start with a look at the WSOP final table, which will be posted shortly.

Please check back.

Monday, July 16, 2007


Seat 1 - Jon Kalmar - 20,320,000

Seat 2 - Lee Childs - 13,240,000

Seat 3 - Philip Hilm - 22,070,000

Seat 4 - Jerry Yang - 8,450,000

Seat 5 - Raymond Rahme - 16,320,000

Seat 6 - Tuan Lam - 21,315,000

Seat 7 - Alex Kravchenko - 6,570,000

Seat 8 - Lee Watkinson - 9,925,000

Seat 9 - Hevad Khan - 9,205,000

Chip leader Hilm is 5.2 favourite on Betfair, Kravchenko is outsider on the exchange at 16.5.

Things can turn around very quickly at the final table, the short stacked Kravchenko will be chip leader if he doubles up twice and I would not rush to take a short price about any of these.

Lee Watkinson, who I gave a shout to yesterday, is still there and is quoted at odds of 9.2 , as you can see from the photograph, Lee has already got the t shirt, albeit a smaller size and is likely to be one of the cooler heads at the table.

I will take a more detailed look at this from a betting angle tomorrow, with today being dedicated a well earned rest day at the WSOP.

Good Luck.


A strong finish to the week meant we showed a small profit on the blog, at least we are continuing to head in the right direction.

Huge week of sport ahead, with the blog staples, football and tennis, plus the final table of the WSOP main event and the big event of the week, the Open championship from Carnoustie.

I am not going to put any bets on the site today, but will probably return a little later with some information.

Good Luck.

WEEK 67, 18 bets, 10 winners ( 55.56%), profit + 6.5 pts, ROI 7.6 % (85.5)

That is the 49th winning week.

Sunday, July 15, 2007


Houston are in amazing form, they have won 8 from 9 and have kept 6 consecutive clean sheets, they are one more away, well 77 minutes actually, from a MLS record. It is not just the bare statistics, but the fact that 4 of these 6 matches have come against the 1st and 3rd ranked teams in the East and the 2nd and 3rd teams in the Western Conference.

Last time out, both teams faced Chicago Fire, in the Windy City, Toronto took a share of the spoils in a 1-1 draw, while Houston came away 4-0 victors. This will be Toronto's 5th (!) away game in a row and that must be taking it's toll. Home win.

4.5 points Houston -3/4 ball asian line 1.80.

Good Luck.


I have similar thoughts about this game ( as the Copa final), it is a shame that these two, who might be the best teams in Canada, are meeting so early in the tournament. We discussed the potential of this Mexican team earlier in the week, they have grown up together in the last 3 years and an upset, is not out of the question. They both have goals in them and it is hard to see either being kept off the scoresheet for 90 minutes. This should be fun, in Sergio Aguero and Gio Dos Santos, we will have possibly the two best players in the event, facing each other and there will be goals.

4.5 goals "over" 2.5 goals 1.99 asian line.

Good Luck.


Not going to waste too much time discussing this match in detail, we all know the players well enough. Gilberto Silva is suspended for Brazil and Argentina, who have swept all before them , in 5 easy victories, look the strongest team on paper. Especially in midfield, where Riquelme looks back to his very best. His return to Boca Juniors, albeit coinciding with some ugly drug rumours, certainly seems to have revitalised him. Crespo seems to be fit to return, so once again, they have an abundance of riches up front.

However, these things are never as simple as they seem when these two meet, last time round Argentina had one hand on the cup, only to be robbed at the eleventh hour, by a late Brazilian equaliser. It could easily happen again. I feel that we will see goals, last 7 meetings have been "over", with six of them producing 4 or more and this is the better option to my mind.

5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.84 asian line.

Good Luck.


I am going to write a little about the WSOP over the next few days, we are now down to just 36 players in the main event, from a field of 6,358 which generated a prize pool of just shy of $60m.

Every player left is guaranteed at least $285k, but having come this far, few will be happy with that, especially with a first prize of $8.25m, the second biggest payday in the history of poker.

The field is led by little known poker pro David Tran with over 10m chips, he has earned just over $500k in 10 years on the circuit and is looking at his biggest cash by far, whatever happens.

The top of the "leaderboard" is made up by a bunch of "unknowns", although internet pro Hevad Khan, currently in 4th spot, is famous on Pokerstars, mainly for playing 26 tables at once online ! There is a video on youtube of him doing this apparently.

Further down the field we have a few better known players, including the only former champion remaining, Scotty ( it's all over baby) Nguyen and well known cash player Daniel Alaei, both sit with just under 2m in chips. Well respected tounament pro Lee Watkinson, has a useful looking 3.5m and would be my choice, if somebody twisted my arm to pick a winner.

Picking out a few others, Bob Slezak won a bracelet back in 2001 and appears to have done almost nothing since. Two inform players with obvious chances, are Bill Edler and Alexander Kravchenko, who have both already won WSOP bracelets this year. Guess that Edler would be the favourite of many pros at this stage.

Although the WSOP picks up most of the column inches, it is not the only game in town. Online pro and high stakes cash game player Brian (sbrugby) Townsend, who just a couple of years ago was playing 50c/ $1 games online, has dropped $1.8m in a little over 36 hours in Las Vegas. Imagine losing $2m in two days, at 25 years old, or any age really. Some of the swings in these big games are brutal and Townsend documents these in his blog, which you can read here, poker is a sick game !

Back later.





-13 BYRD

-12 GAY


-11 and worse "THE FIELD"

Leader Nathan Green and his closest pursuer Tim Clark, are very consistent golfers, they are not going to make too many silly mistakes, but are unlikely to shoot a score that will take the toournament out of reach. Both are still seeking their maiden tour win, although they have dozens of top 25 finishes between them, Clark an amazing 61 in 144 starts, but they cannot go that extra yard.

Brian Gay is another player on good terms with his bank manager, but his round 4 record when in contention is dire, averaging over 73 strokes and that simply will not get the job done. he is closing in on 300 tournaments without a win.

So, of the top 5, that leaves us with proven winners Jonathan Byrd (2) and Kenny Perry (9) and I see one of these two as the winner. Byrd plays the 4th round as well as anyone and is ranked 24th this year and was 20th in 2006. Perry was 55th and 46th respectively, he is a closer, someone who knows how to get the job done and is a winner waiting to happen.

Going to take the pair outright and a match bet for Byrd to beat Gay, which looks very strong.

Bet 365 have a nice each way offer for Perry 7.50 to win and top place terms of 1/5th the odds 4 places.

2 points Byrd outright 7.6 exchanges.

3 points Perry outright 8.4 exchanges.

5 points Byrd to beat Gay 1.813 Pinnacle // 1.83 general quote (which contains the tie).

Good Luck.



I am a little surprised by the odds in these two matches. Feeling that the two favourites are too heavily favoured.

Of course SK will want to win, but that result will eliminate Bahrain, both will still have their fate in their own hands, should they share the points.

Whatever happens, this should be close and Bahrain will fight all the way, getting a goal + start, they have to be my selection.

Feel a draw is very likely in the other fixture, that will leave both clear at the top of the group. Iran will then meet group whipping boys Malaysia and be able to choose their finishing position in the group. China would just need to avoid defeat in their final match.

Not sure who is the better team in any case and simply have to take China, plus the start.

4 .5 points Bahrain +1.25 ball asian line 2.02 .
4 points China +1/4 ball 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.


Hiroshima have a 1-0 first leg lead, but the hosts will be confident of turning things around, having won the home league game 5-1, just four weeks ago.

Kashmira are very much cup specialists and have been in 6 of the last 10 finals. Progression here will give them a semi final against Yokohama and dreams of final number seven.

5 points Kashmira Antlers 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.

Saturday, July 14, 2007


The goals have continued to flow in the Copa, with 16 of the 24 matches ending "over". The majority of the "unders" coming when teams were looking for specific results, in order to qualify from their group.

We have the motivation factor to consider here and finishing 3rd or 4th, probably makes little difference to these two. Both are set to make changes and there is absolutely no reason to expect anything other than an open game. These matches are usually high scoring affairs, had some stats somewhere, from all the major tournaments, but cannot find them at the moment ! Anyway, this should follow suit.

5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.75 general.

Good Luck.



We had a good deal of success with the 3rd and 4th round stats last week and I have found two very nice bets today.

Bob May has had a nightmare with injuries and missed almost 3 years on tour. he returned last year, but understandably struggled. As a result he has only played limited events in 2007. However, he is VERY "hungry" and in the three 3rd rounds he has played, is averaging a fine 69.33.

Tin Clark has been very poor in round 3, ranking 175 this year and 165 last, averaging 72 strokes per round. I have to take a chance on May, who did not record a bogey yesterday and is ahead of Clark in almost all stats, to win this match up.

Byrd is one of the very best round 3 players, ranking 5 and 8 in the last two years. Petrovic is 51 and 189, leaving him around 3 strokes adrift of Byrd on average.

4 points May to beat Clark 2.75 general quote.
5 points Byrd to beat Petrovic 1.73 Pinnacle.

Good Luck.

Friday, July 13, 2007


Japan play faily defensively and look very short for today's match. These two have 10 recent meetings, with Japan winning just once, 5 finished all square, amazingly all ten were under!
I do feel that we will see too many goals this time round either, the UAE will battle and try to restore a little pride after their opening loss. If Japan take the lead, the win will be more important than the scoreline, so do not expect them to push for a second or third.

5 points under 2.5 goals Japan-UAE 2.05 asian line.

Good Luck.

Thursday, July 12, 2007



The wide fairways here mean that it is very much a second shot course and a case of horses for courses, as the same players seem to do well, year after year.

Tom Lehman is in fine form, with 4 top 25 finishes, including 2 top six's in his last 5 starts. He loves it here and boasts 6 top 15 places in 8 visits.

After a golden run in the Spring, Richard Green's form has tailed off and he has little course form of any note.

4.5 points Lehman to beat Green 1.855 Pinnacle.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007


Argentina are worthy tournament favourites and man for man, have the strongest squad by far. However, I still feel that they are very short for this match with Hugo Sanchez's battle hardened troops, who have been together for weeks and weeks.

Like Uruguay yesterday, they will not lay down, this is a decent bunch of footballers, but also a nation of fighters, just look at their boxers. Nery Castillo is a doubt and will be missed, but they have plenty of cover.

I expect this to be close, h2h Mexico are unbeaten in 4 , with the last 3 finishing all square.

4.5 points Mexico +1 ball asian line 1.84.

Good Luck.


It is only mid afternoon in Europe , yet email subscribers have already received two winners today and the service looks back on track. I have detailed those two below, remember you can still take advantage of the completely free email newsletter offer, simply by emailing me, using this link.


Iran look strong, they are a major force in the region and are likely to field a team containing 7-8 European based players. They are scoring for fun recently, with 18 goals in 5 starts, including 8 against Jamaica !

Uzbekistan have problems, their top striker and two key defenders are missing and they have a young squad, lacking in experience.

In the other match, I have to take the Saudi team with the handicap start, both could live with the draw and that could easily be the outcome. SK are without 3 key English based players and have not beaten their opponents in 18 years, they may have to wait a little longer.

4 points Iran -3/4 ball asian line 1.83.
5 points Saudi +1/4 ball asian line 1.95.

There was also a big priced winner " between the lines" on Monday for the eagle eyed, Koubek won in straight sets. Albeit two days later, due to the rain.

"Did have a look at the tennis in Gstaad, where I was interested in opposing Youzhny, who was injured at Wimbledon, with Koubek who is a big looking 5.30 to win. He took a set when they met earlier this year on clay in Munich and may do the same again. However, I could not find out anything about Koubek's well being, so decided to take the cowards way out !"

Good Luck.



This looks a very promising Gambian team, almost all were part of the U17 World Cup side, that impressed many viewers in Peru, two years ago.

They qualified froma strong group, averaging 17 attemps on goal per game. In their only loss, to Mexico, they had already qualified, yet put in an impressive performance against their strong opponents and had chances to win. The only negative aspect of their game, being that they lack a cutting edge.

However, Austria give up a lot of possession, conceding 54% +, in every group game. If they give Gambia as much of the ball, they are in big trouble.

4.5 points Gambia -1/4 ball 1.87 asian line.

Good Luck.


I am going to put two football bets online this evening and might also take a look at tomorrow's early golf action, that will be posted overnight/very early morning, just to warn anyone interested.

Just a reminder that details of the free email trial are a few posts down and that this offer has to be taken up by midnight (cet) Thursday.

Back later.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007


These two traditional giants of South American football, have started the Copa America very slowly, but seem to be finding form at exactly the right moment. It could get very expensive to continue opposing Brazil, but if you think the odds are wrong, what else can you do ?

I have been very impressed by a couple of Uruguay players, especially Cristian Rodriguez, nicknamed the "onion", because he makes opponents cry ..... classic !

Now that we are at the business end of the tournament and are left with the cream, I feel that we can expect the goals to dry up a little. I certainly do not expect any team remaining in the tournament to roll over and die once they go behind, as several countries have in recent matches.

Uruguay have an excellent recond against Brazil and have not lost in 5 very competitive matches this millenium. This one could go the distance.

4.5 points Uruguay +1 ball 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.


Time for one of the favourites to get their act together.

China should be far too strong for Malaysia, despite being short of a top class striker.

With strong nations Uzbekistan and Iran in their group, they will want these 3 points and ideally, a few goals, in hand. Malaysia have not impressed in the build up to the tournament and at 149, are the lowest FIFA ranked team in the competition, with all players plying their trade in the low standard domestic league.

5.5 points China -1 ball 1.70 asian line.

Good Luck.


Good Morning !

Well, despite the ATP tour moving out of the UK, the rain has not relented and there was very little play in Gstaad yesterday. I did have some ideas for this tournament, but am going to wait a day or two and hopefully, for some better weather.

Therefore, it is only football news for today, on the email service I have covered four matches across Europe, Asia and South America, at least two of these will be on the blog a little later.

Details of the service can be found on this link . If any blog reader, that has not previously tried out the service would like to do so, they can receive it completely free, with no obligation, for three days over this weekend, Friday-Sunday inclusive. Simply send me an email using this link.
Or to stencelwade@btinternet.com latest time to be included on the list, is midnight( cet) Thursday.

This was the only extra selection on yesterday's newsletter....


The outsiders have dominated in the tournament so far and given the quote here, feel we have to side with Qatar.

Japan have had a poor preparation, arriving late, due to J-League commitments, with an inexperienced squad. Their coach is very cautious and has been under attack for being too defensive minded. The conditions are brutal and it will be very hot at kick off today, we can expect teams to pace theirselves.

Money is no problem for Qatar, who have been in Vietnam for a month. Both teams are coached by Bosnians, who I understand are very friendly, having worked together in the past. With Vietnam having won the other group game, these two will strongly fancy their chances of progression to the next stage. With the one goal line I see little downside here..... famous last words.

5.5 points Qatar +1 ball 1.96 asian line.

Good Luck.

Monday, July 09, 2007


AIK blew the title last season and may be looking for a little revenge on the champions. They will certainly need the win if they are to put in a challenge this time round.

AIK got their act together in the last round, with a 2-0 win over Trelleborg, boosted by a goal from one of their two new Argentinian signings, who have given the club a huge boost and confidence is high. The home team have a decent record in this fixture, losing just once in 8 meetings on home soil.

5 points AIK level ball 1.74 asian line.

Good Luck.


I have updated the weekly figures, despite including my worst ever sequence, the blog has continued to make sustained long term profits, last week was the 48th winning week from 66.

However, I am not pleased with these totals, as I know that I can and will, do better, so keep reading.

WEEK 66 .... 22 bets , 13 winners (59.09%) profit + 43.14 pts ROI + 45.17 % (95.5)

WEEK 65 .... 30 bets, 13 winners ( 43.33 %) loss - 20.65 pts ROI - 16.69 % (123)

WEEK 64 .... 26 bets , 8 winners ( 30.77%) loss -38.87 pts ROI - 33.36 % (116.5)

WEEK 63... 25 bets, 11 winners (44%) loss - 10.63 pts ROI - 9.95 % (106.82)

WEEK 62 .... 21 bets, 12 winners (57.14%) profit + 10.035pts ROI + 10.51% (95.5)

WEEK 61 ... 14 bets , 6 winners (42.86%) loss - 3.786 pts ROI -7.21 % (52.5)

WEEK 60 ...18 bets , 10 winners ( 55.55%) profit + 1.23 pts ROI 1.58 % ( 78)

WEEK 59... 13 bets, 9 winners (69.23%), profit + 23.06 points, ROI + 43.51 % (53)

WEEK 58 .... 22 bets , 10 winners ( 45.45%) profit + 0.825 pts ROI + 0.79% (104.5)

WEEK 57 .... 25 bets, 17 winners (68%), profit +54.308 pointsROI +48.06% (113)

WEEK 56 .... 29 bets 16 wins (55.17%) profit +1.195 pts ROI + 0.866 % (138)

WEEK 55 .... 32 bets , 22 winners (68.75 %) profit + 48.064 points ROI 33.26% (144.5)

WEEK 54 ..... 29 bets 16 winners ( 55.17%) profit + 24.407 pts ROI 20.68 % (118)

WEEK 53 ..... 31 bets 14 winners (45.16%) loss - 16.91 pts ROI -12.16% (139)

WEEK 52 ... 31 bets, 15 winners ( 48.39%) profit + 9.744 pts ROI + 7.438 % (131)

WEEK 51 .... 24 bets, 14 winners ( 58.33%), profit +20.0725 points, profit to stakes, or ROI 21.82 % (92)

Totals for these 16 weeks ...392 bets , 205 winners ( 52.3 %) profit + 145.24 pts, ROI + 8.54 % (1700.82).

Back later.


What a relief !

A winning week !

After never recording two very poor weeks in a row, I managed to dig up three from somewhere. However 43 points profit on the blog last week and a little more on the email service have, at least, steadied the ship. Hopefully, we can build on that and record another solid seven days profit.

I will be back a little later with my news for today.

Good Luck.

Sunday, July 08, 2007


The Mexico "B" team impressed me in the second half against Chile and this is a battle hardened side that have grown together in the last month. Feel that Sanchez is getting the players on his side and really like them with the level ball quote.

5 points Mexico level ball 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.



These selections are based on the final round scoring stats.

Kim is ranked number one this year, Pampling is consistent enough ranking 80 and 92 in the last two years, with an average of around 71.3 , almost 2.5 strokes more than the very promising rookie.

Stricker is a very strong finisher in his tournaments and his 55( little unfair) and 2 ranking in the last two years, matches up very well with Mike Weir's 92 and 169, once his winning chance has gone, the Canadian can often let the round slip away from him.

4.5 points Kim to beat Pampling 1.87 Pinnacle ..... 2.0 general
4.5 points Stricker to beat Weir 1.84 Pinnacle .... 2.0 general

All the"general" quotes include the tie, it would be preferable to bet without, but I like these three bets with or without.

Good Luck.


Turku need this win if they are to challenge for the title, they are 9 points adrift of Tampere, who face a tough trip to Mypa. KTP have only one win in 6, are without a key (suspended) player and look set for a lower mid table finish.

The visitors are heavily favoured by the h2h stats, they have won the last 3, scoring 13 goals, including a 10-0 aggregate last season.

4.5 points Turku -1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.

Good Luck.


Ding, ding .... round 13, Rafael Nadal leads the battle 8-4, one of only 5 players with a winning record over the world number one.

Strongly feel that this will go to at least 4 sets. Federer was lucky that this did not go all the way last year and Nadal is a stronger all court player now. These are no longer "true" grass courts and the higher bounce also helps the Spaniard.

I have spent many hours looking at golf and tennis stats this morning, could not really find any real edge in this final, but can at least pass on the following ....

These two have played 16 sets on fast courts, which produced 61 aces, at an average of 3.81 per set. Highest was, as you might expect in the Wimbledon meeting last year (5.25). However, Rafa served up 9 of those and he is way below that average this year, only once going over 6 in his run to the final.

It is fair to assume that with the ace "line" set at 18.5 or 19, it is unlikely to go "over" in 3 sets and if Rafa keeps to his mean of 4 aces, then even a fourth set would be touch and go. If you are adamant that it cannot go to a decider, then you may feel that 2.375 for under 19 aces with Stan James, will provide plenty of interest.

Hope Rafa doesn't tire himself out, he has been seen working out on court number 15, all morning long !

5.5 points Federer NOT to win 3-0 1.714 Pinnacle .... or LAY 3-0 Federer on the exchanges.

Good Luck.


Good Morning !

Fantastic day for sport today, Wimbledon, Tour de France (finally back in it's rightful home !), Copa America, Formula 1 and Golf, where we had two easy winners yesterday, so spoilt for choice.

Not sure exactly what will be on the blog, but it will be quite a lot. The email covered Tennis, Golf and Football, including matches from Japan, Scandinavia and the Copa, so something along those lines.

Have to say a few words about the Federer-Nadal final, so I will start there, this will be online in an hour or so, please check back.

Good Luck.

Saturday, July 07, 2007


Venezula and Uruguay fought out a poor 0-0 draw (hooray) just 4 days ago and it may be hard for either, to now pick up the pace. Feel that this may well turn into a tactical affair and extra time would not surprise me in the slightest.

I have no doubt that Uruguay are the stronger team on paper and have to side with them and the handicap start. Surely Recoba will be given the go ahead this evening and he could be the key.

5 points Uruguay +1/4 ball asain line 1.72

Good Luck.