CANARIES CLOCKING UP ROAD MILES ...........

JOHNSTONE'S PAINT TROPHY
SOUTHAMPTON - NORWICH CITY

This is something of a strange match up between two of Division 1's better teams, infact, Leeds aside, Saints are the best team I have seen at this level this season, they knock the ball around well, do not panic when things go against them, use the full width of the pitch, have a coach who is unafraid to make changes and in Rickie Lambert, a striker way too good for this division and at the very peak of his game at present .

Things are not only going well on the pitch, but the quiet investment and long term plans of owner Markus Liebherr are starting to come together off the pitch too, with Saints training ground at Staplewood, set to be the redeveloped and become the envy of many EPL clubs. On the field, they are on fire, winning 12 from 15 , scoring three or more goals in nine of those, notching two or more in 14 from 16 starts, including a 2-2 draw when these two met here in the league last month, the home side led twice in that game and perhaps did enough to earn all three points.

The reason I called this a strange game is, whilst this competition now has value to both clubs, a two legged area final with one or both games televised, followed by a potential decider with Leeds United at what would be a sold out Wembley stadium is a real money earner in prospect , but promotion has to be a priority and both teams have massive games on saturday. Saints travel to face Leeds and City host fellow high flyers Huddersfield, games that will be at the back of their minds, maybe in City's case the forefront.

After all, they are not playing in front of their own fans tonight and had a gruelling 3-3 draw at Yeovil over the weekend, a match which involved two injury time goals, a 500 mile round trip and ten plus hours on a coach. After a brief recovery time, they face another 200 miles on the road and a 4-5 hour trip south to Hampshire. They also picked up a number of knocks in what was quite a physical game at Huish Park, which I have just finished watching brief highlights of and boss Paul Lambert will not be taking any chances with the Huddersfield game on the horizon, to say nothing of the busy holiday programme.

BTW, I accept that footballers get used to the endless travel, but some twenty hours on a bus in a 4-5 day period is tough for any sportsman, especially when several are carrying knocks and with Saints having been at home on saturday and probably back in their own homes by 18.30, it gives them far more quality prep/recovery time and a big advantage going into this game IMO. Home boss Alan Pardew will want to keep the momentum going, especially as the discussions over transfer window investment have doubtless already begun with Herr Liebherr.

Just saw some quotes from City boss Lambert : "My main priority is the league. I won't make a secret of that," he told reporters this morning. "I can't play lads who aren't fully recovered from the Saturday. I just have to see who's fit and who's not.

"I've got to balance it out, we haven't got a big enough squad to go week in, week out. As I've said before if there are lads carrying knocks then I've got to watch their welfare and protect some of them from playing a lot of games."

6.5 points Southampton -1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY .............

Two poor bets on the blog on Saturday, it happens, but I was unhappy about the Bury selection in particular, they underperformed terribly and were big drifters pre kick off in Asia. This is something we discussed recently, many people follow the market moves on the asian line and it is always a concern when you are on the wrong end, but we had four or five selections all in the same week recently that drifted badly and all won with ease. However, I understood the reasons for those moves and this one is a bit of a mystery. Having said that, I do not really have a problem "standing alone" with selections.

I recorded a very small profit on the week for subscribers, nothing to write home about, but it was the eleventh winning week from thirteen and it keeps us ahead of the game entering a period where I traditionally do well. The festive season means that the UK games come thick and fast and it offers an opportunity to stay ahead of the oddsmakers, who are often stretched at this time of year.

Brentford put out a side to stifle mighty Leeds, the tactics worked perfectly and whilst the Bees created very little (nothing) ,I cannot believe that anyone at Griffin Park is too unhappy with a point, which could prove very valuable come the end of the season, although I an hoping it will be one of many collected before then !

No bets for me today, but the rest of the midweek looks busy, so I will do my best to post a couple on the blog in the next couple of days.

Good Luck.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS IN DIVISION 2 ..........

DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE - BURY

Here we have two sides looking to get into Division 1. Daggers started their season very well, especially after losing half their team in the summer and all credit must be given to coach John Still for building another competitive side in double quick time, on very limited resources. However, I feel that they have overachieved massively and it looks likely that Still will again be forced to rethink things, with at least another two players set to leave in the transfer window. The prospect of moving up a level and possibly doubling or trebling you salary is a massive incentive for players at this level and also a terrific distraction and I do not think it is a coincidence that D&R have underperformed in recent starts.

Bury missed out on promotion last year on goal difference, actually they were a single goal short on claiming an automatic spot, which, over the course of a 46 game season is a difficult pill to swallow and it was hardly a surprise that they took time to get going this season, especially given an horrendous injury list. However, they are back on track now and lie just outside the playoff spots and boss Alan Knill is definitely targeting a top three place this time round. His side were unbeaten in eleven, before losing 3-0 at in form Morecambe, it says a lot about the spirit at Gigg Lane, that they immediately bounced back with a 2-0 defeat of Barnet last time out. I would not read too much into the loss against the Shrimpers, as Bury had chances to take the lead before the match turned on a dubious penalty award and I am certain that the defeat had benefit of type, if only as a wake up call. On loan striker Daniel Nardiello returns to his parent club after this game and is determined to leave with a win and by adding to his four goals in five starts, he is a player with a touch of class and a little too good for this level.

Knill made keeping a cleansheet a priority last week and his side restricted Barnet to two off target attempts in 90 minutes, with Wayne Brown not making a single save in the Shakers goal. A similar professional approach is on the cards in East London, in a stadium they have done well at in recent trips south, recording a fine 3-1 win here last season at a time when the Daggers were second in the table and the division's top scorers. I do not expect the classier visitors to go home empty handed and am keen on them with a handicap start.

7 points Bury +1/4 ball 1.90 asian line.

Good Luck.

HARRY LOOKING TO KEEP PRESSURE ON TOP 4 .............

PREMIER LEAGUE
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR- WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

Spurs have played well in the last month, scoring 14 goals in four starts and collecting 8 points, that should really have been a clean sweep and four wins, but they threw two points away in each of their last two starts at Goodison and Villa Park, matches in which they were clearly superior. Having blown a two goal lead at Everton, I am certain that they will want to put this one beyond doubt asap, especially with fellow top 4 hopefuls Manchester City coming to town in midweek.

I think that Happy Harry's men will run away with this and of course the oddsmakers agree and have priced the match up accordingly, having said that, I still see a little value in the "over" market. Spurs have to continually juggle their back line and have conceded more goals than any other side in the top eleven in the EPL, infact, they have only allowed two fewer than Pompey who are holding up the rest of the division.

Wolves have a very tough holiday period starting today and meet four top seven teams in their next five starts, including visits to White Hart Lane, Anfield and Old Trafford, having conceded four to both Arsenal and Chelsea in recent weeks, it is hard not to be a little fearful for the "Old Gold". Doubtless Mick McCarthy will send his team out to keep things tight, but they are without a clean sheet since the opening days of the season and if / when they go behind, they will have to open up and that is when Spurs will get the space, especially from wide positions which Wolves have had problems with all season, Lennon could have a field day.

Massive boost to the home side with Luka Modric playing 70 minutes of a training ground game on tuesday, he will return to the squad shortly which will further increase the competition for starting places, as his will be the first name on the team sheet.

6 points "over" 3 goals 1.95 asian line.

Back shortly.

SATURDAY ...............

Huge day today, Leeds United come to the big city, not to face Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs or West Ham as they have done so many times in the past, but the mighty Bees. The prospect of Brentford playing United in anything other than a cup competition was inconceivable even just a handful of years ago. I accept that this says more about the visitors fall from grace than it does about a phoenix like rise from the ashes for my beloved club, but that doesn't make it any less of an event !

United are going to win League 1 this season and good luck to them, they are the best team and biggest club outside the top two divisions, although Norwich are fast improving, but the only title holding champions on the pitch today will be the Bees. I would settle for a point, but a famous win would live long in the memory and be something to savour.

Now to more mundane things, I have four match previews for today and will post at least two of them on the blog, one very shortly, so please check back.

Good Luck.

ROVERS DON'T GIVE A HOOT ABOUT OWLS PROBLEMS ..........

CHAMPIONSHIP
DONCASTER ROVERS- SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

Yorkshire derby between two teams at vastly different ends of the confidence scale at the moment. Wednesday are nosediving, they are without a win in seven starts, or a goal in almost 350 minutes and have put in several really inept performances recently, the players are in fragile shape and once they concede, any remaining confidence in their own abillity snaps. Visiting coach Brian Laws is under intense pressure and I doubt this is helping the players much.

Laws will change things around tonight, but the problems go much deeper than that, some supporters and Owls fans are a loyal bunch, have even voiced the opinion that it might be better to lose tonight, as that might force the board to take action. To be fair to the Simon Cowell lookalike, he has been operating under severe financial restraints and his team are better than recent results would suggest, but atm, they are in a mess.

Hosts arrrive bouyed by a fine 3-0 win at Crystal Palace at the weekend and are a very tough side to break down especially at the Keepmoat Stadium, where they play really nice "keep ball" football and have already taken seven points and kept three cleansheets from three top Championship sides in QPR, Cardiff and Swansea. Not many teams will achieve that treble this campaign and gives some idea of how solid they are on home soil. In the last 12 months, Donny have lost just six of 21 home Championship fixtures, four of those came towards the end of last season when safety was already assured and facing three promotion chasing sides and one battling to stave off relegation. So, really just two defeats from 17 starts in what could be termed competitive fixtures.

Wednesday remain a big team in Yorkshire and Doncaster will be out for a famous win, to follow up their 1-0 victory in this fixture last season, a result they dined out on for several weeks afterwards. Visitors have won just five times on the road in the last 14 months, that's 28 Championship starts and I do not see them adding to that tally this evening.

6 points Doncaster -1/4 ball 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY ................

Although you only have my word for this, unless you are a subscriber to the email service, both bets won yesterday at very rewarding odds of 2.04 and 2.20, actually, each drifted a little pre kick off, so were available at even bigger quotes.

That was my tenth winning week from the last twelve, during which I have given 154 selections, with 87 of them winning, a 56.49% strike rate, which produced almost 142 points profit, with a ROI of circa 13%. Nearly all suggested bets are on the asian market, so quotes are widely available, unlike similar services which put up prices only on offer with one company and which have almost certainly long since gone ,so these are really excellent returns and as good as you will find anywhere on the internet.

Results have been very solid for 26 months on the subscription service (724 pts profit) and for closing in on four years here on the blog. However, all good things have to come to an end sometime and I will not be producing the daily newsletter/email after the end of this month. I have written some 1.4 million words of original content over the last couple of years, which equates to some 13-15 full length novels, that is a bit of a grind for even the most prolific of authors, so I am looking at implementing some changes .

I will definitely continue to write on the blog and might actually be posting more betting previews in the future, without such a restrictive other arrangement.

However, I am also looking to advise someone, or possibly a small group on a more one to one basis. This would only be of interest to very serious gamblers and whilst not cheap, would provide a unique and value for money service. I have already spoken to several individuals along these lines, but would welcome the opportunity to discuss this with any other interested parties in the next week or two, before making a final decision. All (serious) enquiries by email to .........
gowi8@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ..........

Three from three on the blog yesterday and five winners from just six selections this week, only the Cluj bet has come up short in the last seven days, I would like to say that we were unlucky with that one, but the truth is the Romanian side were outplayed.

I am very pleased with my previews at the moment, results since adopting my approach slightly have been fantastic and the benefits are clear for all to see. With regard to the actual content of the write ups, they are as well written IMO as any other betting previews on the internet and each usually contains some information that is pertinent to future contests and not just the match in question.

Today I looked at just two matches, both from mainland Europe and with such limited choice, have had no option but to keep these solely for subscribers, so you are on your own for the time being ! The midweek games look extremely promising at this early stage so please check back through the week.

Good Luck.

A LITTLE LOWER DOWN THE LADDER ........

DIVISION 1
WALSALL- SOUTHAMPTON

If we disregard the Saints points deduction for one minute, the league table would show very little difference between these two clubs, but IMO and in the view of most people who watch football at this level, the visitors are the FAR superior side. Walsall have done extremely well and find themselves on the playoff fringe, but to my eyes they have overachieved big time. The Saddlers are bottom of the attempts on goal league table and have created a massive 102 fewer than Southampton, who average 5.36 shots at goal per game more. Further inspection of the Walsall results will tell you that they have struggled against the better teams in the division and picked up seven of their eight wins against teams in the bottom eleven of the table, with an average league placing of 19.71. Regardless of what the league table might currently say, the classy Saints are definitely a top half team at the very least and a playoff push remains a possibilty for them.

Regardless of what happens this season, the future at St Mary's looks much rosier under "new" owner Markus Liebherr and 2010 can only go one way. The visitors score for fun, with at least a goal in each of their last 17 starts, they are slowly getting things right at the other end of the pitch and will be tremendously buoyed by a first cleansheet in 15 matches last time out. The very experienced David Connolly returns to the squad today, which gives them further options and I think Saints will be heading back down south with three points in the bag.

6 points Southampton to win 2.40 general quote.

Good Luck.

IT'S RAINING GOALS ........... HOPEFULLY

ENGLAND

PREMIER LEAGUE

WEST HAM UNITED- MANCHESTER UNITED

Historically this has been a high scoring fixture and for the footballing purist, one of the most keenly anticipated fixtures of the season. The goals have dried up a little in recent years, but a return to the "good old days" is firmly on the cards this afternoon in East London. Upton Park has seen more goals this season than anyother stadium in the EPL and many have been in the Hammers own net, they have conceded 13 in their last 6 starts here, at an average of 2.17 per game. It is difficult to see the well rested visiting senior players, who have had a couple of free days recently with Sir Alex giving youth a chance, not having a similar level of success.

West Ham are "over" in their eleven starts, with seven of those producing four or more and they are without a single cleansheet in twelve outings, I doubt we will see one today and expect both teams to score. Man U would be my idea of the winners, they can ill afford to lose any further ground to Chelsea and three points here would put pressure on the Blues, who have a difficult early evening start at Manchester City, however, I feel the "over" offers slightly better value and this is a bet we have done well with at the Boleyn Ground this campaign.

6 points "over" 2.75 goals 2.06 asian line.

EPL OVER 21.75 GOALS ALL SATURDAY GAMES

The average EPL game is averaging 3.04 goals this season and I am keen on seven of todays fixtures producing at least this number today and am very confident of this "over" bet. Already discussed the West Ham fixture and the games at the Emirates, Villa Park, Fratton Park and City of Manchester Stadium absolutely scream goals to me. The match at Molineux is one where both will surely target all three points and could also develop into a shootout, Wolves have had little luck in front of goal recently and are due a change of luck. We need an average of 2.75 to make a profit on this bet, I fully expect one and maybe two to register five, which means we have plenty of leeway with this bet and can still romp home with the odd shortfall.

8 points "over" 1.94 asian line.

Back later.

SATURDAY ..............

I am not a big fan of garden gnomes, but OMG how cute is this little fella ? Standing there all proud in his Brentford strip.

That takes care of all the Christmas gifts for this year !

Going to post a couple of match previews on the blog later today, possibly three, so please check back a little later.

Good Luck.

EUROPA LEAGUE .............

FC KOBENHAVN- CFR CLUJ

Bit surprised and pleased by the odds here, where I feel the oddsmakers have underestimated the Romanian side, who will be eager to impress new Italian boss, Andrea Mandolini, who has only been at the helm since the middle of last month, overseeing just two games. This will be his first ever european tie, despite coaching nine clubs in his homeland, so something of a big occasion for him. CFR dominated the second half of the reverse fixture, which they eventually won 2-0, their only win of the group stage, but the winning margin could have been greater and they have had little luck in their other games, when in each, they have been on top for extended periods .They will be boosted by the return to the squad of striker Yssouf Kone, who had terrific success at Rosenborg, averaging better than a goal a game there and he might well be further inspired by a return to Scandinavia, providing he goes easy on the red wine !

Both teams need a win to really keep their chances of progression alive and this could get quite stretched after a cautious opening, but I feel the key factor here is FCK's fixture at the weekend, when they travel to face league leaders Odense, in an absolutely vital game. OB lead Super Ligaen by four points and this will be the last match before the winter break, FCK just cannot afford to lose that and sit at home for almost three months dwelling on a seven point gap at the top of the table. I feel that they will be looking to win tonight with the minimum of effort and if they do fall behind, I am not certain how much chasing they will be prepared to do.

Player for player, I rate Cluj the slightly better side, they made a mistake with the appointment of their last coach who was only in charge for a few months, defensively they were struggling under him and already there has been noticable improvement in this department, I am reliably informed, since Mandorlini took over. They are definitely taking this game seriously and I just cannot get away from the thought that FCK might have other priorities.

6 points Cluj +3/4 ball 1.90 asian line.

Good Luck

WEDNESDAY ...........

I will not be posting any previews on the blog today, I briefly discussed five matches with subscribers and actually put up bets in three of those, but only gave very basic notes and do not want to post a half-assed preview on here, despite being keen on all three bets.

Therefore, I will wait until tomorrow, when I am sure that we can find something to make it three from three on the week.

Huge win for Brentford last night, the three points give them a little breathing space over the bottom four and they travel north at the weekend to face a Tranmere side, who are starting to get their act together, in very good spirits after arguably, their best performance of the season. The Bees will be looking for three points there, as they have a very difficult set of fixtures over the holiday season.

Bit of sour grapes from Colchester United boss Aidy Boothroyd last night, who "complained" that "Brentford were running round like they had won the World Cup at the end" and " it will be a interesting fixture back at our place." Not quite sure what he meant by that, but given the size of the United team (they are all giants), the mainly diminutive Bees had better be on their guard come February 23rd !

Good Luck.

PART OF TODAY'S EMAIL .......... CAESAR TAKES HIS TROOPS TO OLDHAM .............

TUESDAY DECEMBER 1ST

Preston served us well yesterday and in the NFL, New Orleans defeated a big Superbowl rival with ease and remain perfect at 11-0, I have not seen a better "football" team this season and providing Drew Brees, who threw for 371 yards and five touchdowns against the Patriots, stays fit, I feel they are going all the way. Certainly those of you who took the 25-1 advised have a terrific bet and plenty of excitement to look forward to in the next couple of months.

Quite a lot of matches to choose from today, but just the two bets from me and nothing too earth shattering as both are fairly short priced selections, but I still believe that they are good value quotes. Next email will be sent tomorrow morning.

ENGLAND DIVISION 1

OLDHAM ATHLETIC- LEEDS UNITED

Despite only drawing 1-1 with non league Kettering on Sunday, Leeds impressed me, their attitude was spot on and they kept pressing in very difficult conditions. They created a LOT of chances, 25 in total, 13 on target, enjoyed 61% possession (it looked like more !) and their heads didn't drop when they fell behind, infact, they stepped up a gear. Simon Grayson has done a terrific job in his year in charge at Elland Road and they look what the league table says they are, head and shoulders above the rest of Division 1.

Offensively they have a surplus of riches and these players get all the plaudits, but the defence looks extremely solid too and has conceded only eight times in 17 league outings. When teams are on a great run, you can tell a lot about their make up, when they eventually lose and it says everything about Leeds, that since losing their only league game of the season at Millwall, they have gone four from four with a 12-0 goal difference. Team spirit is very high as you might expect and the equaliser on Sunday was greeted by all the team as though it was the goal that took them back to the Championship, I like teams that celebrate en masse and enjoy their goals.

Oldham have not won at Ice Station Zebra, otherwise known as Boundary Park in just over two months, this is the coldest ground in the country and I will not hear any argument over that as I still have the frost bite scars to prove it ! Athletic have had to dwell on a dire performance in a 3-0 defeat at Walsall for seven days and remember, my beloved Bees had "softened up" the Saddlers a couple of days earlier ! The hosts will be without the suspended Lee Hills in defence, but will have on loan striker Paul Heffernan, a player I have plenty of time for at this level, available to make his debut.

Grayson has no new problems and has added to his already very strong squad by signing winger Hogan Ephraim and goalkeeper Chris Martin, on loan from QPR and Liverpool respectively. No sitting on his laurels for the Elland Road caesar, who is constantly looking to improve and keep his players on their toes.

The two met here in the cup earlier this month and United ran out comfortable 2-0 winners and I expect something similar this evening. United have a big derby game with local rivals and fellow promotion hopefuls Huddersfield Town on Saturday lunchtime, a team who have given them problems recently and Leeds will want tonight's points in the bag, ahead of that crunch game. The visitors are averaging 15.58 attempts on goal per game, which dwarfs the Lactics 9.38 and a six shot plus advantage for an away side "always" results in a road win and if these are not famous last words, I do not know what is !!!!

6.5 points Leeds United -1/2 ball 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP ................

BLACKPOOL- PRESTON NORTH END

This is a very big local derby, with no love lost between the two "neighbours" and often involving crowd trouble. Unlike in the EPL, where sometimes the players are so far detached from the fans, that they are unaware how vital these derby games are, both sets of players here will be up for the battle ahead and know how important the match is to the supporters.

This series of games has been totally dominated by the visiting team in recent seasons, regardless of the venue and Preston have collected four points from their last two visits to the seaside resort, including a famous 3-1 win last season, a result which kick started their season and was talked about for weeks afterwards. They arrive in similar shape this season, looking to get something going, after a four match run without a win. They certainly played well enough last week, outplaying Newcastle for much of the game and creating 16 attempts on goal, before conceding a late winner to the league leaders. The similarities do not end there, as the match is being played at exactly the same time of year and in very similar conditions with rain and high winds creating havoc all over the UK.

Three points for the visitors would see them move back up into a tie for seventh in the table, just outside the playoff zone. They will be without central defender Youl Mawene, which is a big loss, but is offset somewhat by the news that key player Richard Chaplow is fit to start and he will strip much fitter after playing with a pain killing injection in the last game, following a recent operation. Chaplow ran Blackpool ragged last year and with on loan Stoke player, the talented Michael Tonge , alongside him in the centre of the park, I expect PNE to create plenty of chances and dominate the midfield. They will get huge support from the 1750 travelling fans, which is their full ticket allocation and I expect them to make the short journey home in bouyant mood.

Blackpool are having a fantastic season under the effervescent Ian Holloway, they are unbeaten at home (6-2-0) and could move into the top four with a win. However, a fine win over Newcastle aside, their other seven home opponents have all been bottom half teams and almost all arrived out of sorts and struggling for any form at all, they will face a far sterner test this evening and in my notebook, I have Preston as the classier outfit and the more likely of these two ,to eventually challenge for a top six spot. They collected more points from losing positions than anyother FL side last season and unlike in recent years, when they have depended upon their form at Deepdale to keep them in the playoff hunt, this camapaign, they are averaging almost as many points (1.375/1.44) per game on the road, as at home.

7 points Preston +1/2 ball 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..............

PREMIER LEAGUE MANCHESTER CITY- HULL CITY

City did us a favour at Liverpool last weekend and they must be kicking themselves for not collecting the three points that were clearly there for the taking. They have got into the nasty habit of drawing games they should win, but I expect to see them at their best today,against an inferior opponent, in a game they should run away with.

Hull have collect seven much needed points from three home games, but have ridden their luck at times in that sequence coming back from one down against Stoke , two down verses West Ham and nearly blowing a three goals lead against Everton in midweek. The last two were very stressful, high tempo, mentally draining games played in the past seven days and there might well be a let down today, especially returning to the stadium where many of their problems stemmed from last season. This was the venue where Phil Brown kept his players on the pitch at half time in a 5-1 defeat, I doubt many will have any positive memories returning here today and remember, football like a lot of sport is played as much between the ears as with the ball.

We will surely see goals today, the visitors last 13 starts have seen six of those produce four or more, with Hull ending up on the winning side only once in those games. The Sky Blues have both scored and conceded in ten of their last eleven matches, with seven producing at least four goals, more are on the cards today and most should be in the visitors net.

7 points Manchester City -1.75 goals 2.13 asian line.

WEST HAM UNITED- BURNLEY

The Hammers will see this as something of a must win game, three points could take them clear of the drop zone and with the next two visitors to Upton Park , being Chelsea and Manchester United, they would be priceless in the battle for survival. West Ham are the best team at the foot of the table IMO, but seem incapable of keeping a clean sheet, their last ten starts have been "over", with 8 producing four or more. Burnley last six on the road have been "over", last five of which have produced four or more, the last four at least five ! So they are certainly not tightening up ! Both clubs have an attacking instinct and will look for the three points, we will see goals.

7 points "over" 2.75 goals 2.05 asian line.

Good Luck.

THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE !

FRANCE
LIGUE 2

NIMES- CAEN

We have discussed Nimes several times in recent years and especially how strong they are at des Costières, where they have only lost nine times in 65 starts over the last four seasons, considering there were two relegation campaigns included in that sequence, that is a pretty impressive run.

They look unlikely to be dragged into the relegation scrap this time round and a top ten finish is on the cards. Nimes have yet to lose on home soil this season and are in tip top form, losing just once in seven starts, winning five of those. Caen might well be the strongest side in Ligue 2, but their form has tailed off slightly in recent games and they have only scored once, against lower league Dunkerque (in the cup), in three outings. This is due in part to both strikers Traore and Toudic being injured and neither seems likely to return for several weeks.They have only collected two of their nine league wins on the road and already dropped points at three teams, Chateauroux, Guingamp and Strasbourg, below Nimes in the table. Certainly no lost cause for the hosts, who are playing with confidence and they look a solid bet getting a handicap start.

6.5 points Nimes +1/4 ball 1.80 asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ............. PORTO SET TO MAKE CHELSEA W(H)INE .......

Two nice winners yesterday, the only thing I got right in the Rubin game was the weather forecast ! Having said that, the game was fairly open and as always with such bets, the first goal is key.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
PORTO - CHELSEA

Both are already qualified for the knockout stage and only first place in the group is up for grabs. A win would seal the deal for the Blues, but a single point would ensure they remained in pole position, ahead of the final group match and that seems a far more likely result IMO.

Chelsea were very happy to settle for 0-0 in Madrid on Matchday 4, before an Aguero goal caused them to burst into life. With a long campaign ahead and some much bigger games on the immediate horizon, starting with a London derby visit to fellow title challengers Arsenal on Sunday, they seem certain to adopt a similar approach this evening. They will definitely not wish to pick up any further injuries, they are already without Bosingwa and Lampard tonight and seem unlikely to take a chance with Drogba, who will probably be warming up the bench.

Hosts come into this game refreshed, having not played for a couple of weeks and with the unusual bonus of having had most of the squad together during the mini break, which has enabled them to really put in some intensive work in training. This is a very experienced european club, looking to win a group stage for the third year running. They played well in the reverse fixture, losing to a single second half goal from Nicolas Anelka and creating more chances (16) than the home team. Actually, after four rounds no team in the CL have had more attempts on goal than Porto, who have totalled 76 an average of 19 per start. I accept that fellow group members Apoel and Atletico have hardly set the competition on fire, but those are still impressive numbers, especially alonside Chelsea's total of 49, which equates to 6.75 per game fewer than the Portugese champions.

I expect Chelsea to settle for a point and if there is to be a winner, feel it is more likely to come from Porto, who have lost just twice in 13 home starts in the CL over the last four seasons, getting a "point", at least, from meetings with Liverpool, Arsenal (twice) and Chelsea (back in 06-07) , they know the Blues well and what to expect this evening, in a game of few surprises. Draw, or narrow home win.

7 points Porto +1/4 ball 1.80 asian line.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ............ RANGERS TO PUT A SMILE BACK ON BABBEL'S FACE ...............

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

GLASGOW RANGERS - VfB STUTTGART

We discussed before the Sevilla game how negative Rangers are, especially at Ibrox, in europe, where they persist in playing 4-5-1 and try to hit teams on the break. This is crazy in Champions League group games, it worked for them in the UEFA Cup when it was a knockout tournament, but sooner or later you need to win matches to progress. Guess that time has come, but even against a struggling Stuttgart team, I am not sure that they are up to the task.

This is quite possibly one of the worst Rangers team's in a decade, the club have no money to rebuild and they have conceded three or more in their last three home european ties, including four against both Sevilla and Unirea. This evening they are set to switch to 4-4-2 and IMO that will just confuse the players,which will not take much, to give you some idea of how negative they have been in these games, top scorer Kris Boyd, with 86 goals in 123 starts for the Gers, is set to make his first ever CL start tonight !

He is happy beating up on the SPL lesser lights, but I am not so sure and obviously neither is Walter Smith, about his ability to do so agaisnt the more savvy european defenders. The Rangers backline is short on both confidence and experience and if they concede once, anything could happen.

The visitors have really struggled this season and are currently fighting a Bundesliga relegation battle, but I suspect they are too good to remain at the foot of the table for long..... famous last words The CL , especially on the road, where they have drawn at Unirea, Sevilla and won at Timisoara (who currently lead the Romanian league) has given them respite from Bundesliga frustration and they know that two wins will see them progress to the knockout stage and salvage their season and probably save coach Markus Babbel's job. They restricted those three opponents to very few chances on goal , keeping Sevilla to eight shots on target in 90 minutes of football was a real achievement and they are unlikely to have too many problems keeping this limited Rangers side at bay. I have to take them off level ball.

6.5 points Stuttgart level ball 1.99 asian line.

UNIREA- SEVILLA

I am very keen on Unirea here getting the handicap start. Do not get me wrong, I am very impressed by this Sevilla side and know a couple of good judges who think that they have the strongest squad in La Liga, pretty sure I told you that earlier in the season and sitting just three points off the top of the league, they might just prove that by putting in a big title challenge in 2010.

They have already secured qualification from this group and will finish top with a point this evening, or a win in their final home fixture, so three points in Romania is surely not a top priority. They were missing nine players at the weekend , so will not wish to lose any more tonight to injury, especially with a very exciting campaign, battling on two fronts, ahead of them.

Hosts are on a five week unbeaten run and have come to terms with Champions League football and given themselves a good chance to qualify, with four points from two games with Rangers. They are looking for a little bit of history by becoming the first Romanian side to qualify through the group stage and facing a Sevilla team that cannot be fully motivated, I give them a great chance to do so.

I am sure that the Spanish side would rather take three league points at the weekend than a win here, whereas this is Unirea's biggest ever game. No weather concerns in Romania, I like the quote, draw or narrow home win for me.

6.5 points Unirea +1/4 ball 1.97 asian line.

RUBIN- DYNAMO KIEV

Only two points seperate the four teams in Group F and it would be a major coup for either of these clubs to progress from a section containing european giants Barcelona and Inter. Not much love on the pitch, when Kiev face Russian teams and they have a very solid record in these fixtures. Rubin have just secured their second domestic title in a row and to do that, whilst they are involved in their first ever CL campaign is a fanatstic achievement, even more so for a team that had never played in the top flight of Russian football until 2003. Kiev arrive here on the back of a fine 3-0 win over big rivals Shakhtar at the weekend, which has given them a big six point lead at the top of the table, they have changed their game plan since these two last met and now play at a very high tempo, more like an EPL club.

So, what to expect, both will surely look to win, with a final group game against the big two to come. The first meeting between these two produced four goals and I expect this to get very stretched after the break, with end to end action, "over" for me. Temperature is set to be around zero come kick off time, with maybe a few snow flurries or rain, this seems unlikely to bother either team much.......... so not sure why I mentioned it !

6.5 points "over" 2.25 goals 2.01 asian line.

Good Luck.

SPAIN ............LA LIGA

XEREX DEPORTIVO- SPORTING GIJON

It is difficult to win football matches if you do not score any goals and Xerex, in their first ever season in La Liga are finding them very hard to come by. They have scored just three times in ten league starts and not at all, in 9 of their last 12 in all competitions, their only goal in the last 450 minutes of football coming in a 2-1 home cup loss to Osasuna. They have firmly targetted three points today as vital if they are going to launch a survival bid, but they have a return to Segunda written all over them and lack the quality required for La Liga.

Gijon do not have any real stars, but are a strong well knit squad, who have developed over the last two seasons and are proving tough to beat, they could climb into the top five with a win today and off level ball they look a good shout. Player for player they are a stronger team and will be looking to bounce back after a cup blip immediately before the mini break, they have already collected road points at Bilbao, Valencia and Deportivo and meet nothing approaching that quality today.

Sometimes these basic stats can be misleading, but not in this case, in their last three outings Xerex have aveaged 42% possesion and just six attempts on goal, allowing opponents an average of 17, that is simply not good enough and now that their early season euphoria has evaporated, I would argue that recent performances have actually declined.

5.5 points Gijon level ball 2.01 asian line.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ...........

Two goals for Manchester City meant that we were " freerolling" on the Brentford match and despite doing enough in the first half to put the game to bed, the Bees could not find that all important second goal, after taking the lead. John Bostock had three attempts on goal and he is worth keeping an eye on, whenever similar odds are quoted at this level, although it will be interested to see what kind of "treatment"he comes in for on the road.

City are a funny side, they looked content at 0-0 before a Liverpool goal woke them from their slumbers , then the Sky Blues were far superior and they really should have won the game. Mark Hughes team are surely going to have to be more adventurous away from Manchester if they are going to challenge for a top four spot.

Back later.

DIVISION 1 ...........

BRENTFORD - WALSALL

I discussed the Bees in midweek (with subscribers), they scored five and whilst they did not play particularly well in the first half, it is hard to quibble with that and I assessed that game pretty well, he added modestly !

Brentford have been very busy in the loan market since then, signing two classy and tall ( this is important as the Bees have a lack of height in the team and have been conceding from set plays) youngsters from Arsenal and Ipswich. The keeper who is just 19 is held in very high regard and made his full debut for Poland in midweek. That makes three of the home side who were on international duty and gives some indication of how far the Bees have come in the last 18 months, when they can bring players of quality to the club, albeit only on a temporary basis.

What people tend to forget, is that quality loan signings can also help the regular players at the club. Even these young loanees bring with them a degree of knowledge, most of them have trained with the first team and are being brought along in the right manner, playing with them on a daily basis can only be of benefit.

I think that the Bees will keep the momentum up and see off this Walsall side who are well coached, but create relatively few chances, something I also discussed recently. John Bostock will return to the home side again, he is a 17 yo of almost limitless potential, was the youngest player ever to make his debut for Crystal Palace aged fifteen and was then "poached " by Tottenham amid much controversy. He has been allowed to come to the Bees on a loan deal, which might be extended, to gain match experience, he is two footed, which means he can play almost anywhere across the middle and set Division 1 on fire last week with two goals against a very solid Millwall defence on his debut, one directly from a corner. He was the best player on the pitch by a country mile land will probably be so again.

He can be backed at big odds with William Hill to score and also massive odds to get another two or more, this might be unlikely but I feel we will never see these odds again, so why not try a little.

Bostock is an example of what I meant by these youngsters being so more advanced than their lower league counterparts. I accept that he might be an exception, but he is very experienced and advanced for his years and was extremely composed in his post match interviews last week, where he impressed me greatly, as much as he had done on the pitch, hopefully some of this will rub off on the Bees own up and coming players.

6 points Brentford -1/4 ball 1.90 asian line

1.5 points Bostock to score anytime 4.50 William Hill

0.75 points Bostock to score twice 21.0 William Hill.

0.25 points Bostock to score a hat trick 67.0 William Hill.

Good Luck.

BLUE MOON OVER ANFIELD ..............

LIVERPOOL - MANCHESTER CITY

Hard not to see goals in this one, each has managed just a single clean sheet in ten starts and I expect both to score today, something that can be backed at 1.75 in places. That looks a good solid shout in my opinion, or even the "over" option, but I am going for a more speculative bet and will take City to score twice.

Sooner or later it will click for the visitors and with Liverpool already having conceded twice at home to Lyon, Birmingham and Villa, I see no reason why City cannot do likewise, regardless of the final result. Those three sides all get forward quickly and City also have bags of pace up front and it is difficult for me to see them not having a deal of joy against a pedestrian defence, who are starting to make getting caught out of position, into something of an art form. Sky Blue heaven for City fans, unless they mange to concede three !

4 points Manchester City to score two or more goals 3.20 general quote.

Back later.

SATURDAY .............

I had a very bad day on Wednesday, to be honest it was long overdue, but is still a shock to the system when it comes . Took the next day off, but that had less to do with "discipline" than the fact that there were only 3-4 matches worldwide ! Pleased to say that I bounced back with a profit yesterday and I will be looking to continue the comeback at the business end of the week.

Bit short of time overnight so my four match previews were very brief, might try to pad a couple of them out a little before posting on here, but I want to watch three games today, including one live, so time is not really on my side. Anyway, please check back later.

Good Luck.

FIFA WORLD CUP .............

EGYPT - ALGERIA

This playoff takes place in Sudan and perhaps surprisingly, the locals are said to be supporting Algeria, but I do not believe that makes much difference at all and with the tickets being snapped up in minutes, I suspect that the majority were picked up by supporters of the two nations and with over two million Egyptians living in Sudan, they probably have the bulk.

This game is taking place because the two could not be seperated on points, or goal difference, after six group games, Egypt needed to win 2-0 in the home game with their bitter rivals at the weekend and after taking an early lead, had to wait until the 96th minute to find the all important second. The match was played in an extremely tense atmosphere, there is very little love lost between these two, the visiting team bus was attacked on the way to the satdium and things are unlikely to be much calmer tonight.

The reigning Aftrican Champions surely have the upper hand after such a recent and vital win, especially given that the home coach said that was about as bad as his team could play. His midfield was certainly off their game, but will be helped in that regard by the team news tonight, which allows him more options with Shawki and Hosni fit to return to the squad, whilst his counterpart must do without midfielder Lemmouchia and keeper Gaouaoui, who are both suspended. This gives a firm advantage to the Pharaohs IMO, who have handled similar pressure well in recent ACN championships and I think the odds are fair enough.

5 points Egypt -1/2 ball 2.02 asian line.

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA- PORTUGAL

Portugal hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg and will doubtless try to protect that. Bosnia have promised to take the game to the visitors and "attack like famished wolves", they are certainly a side with goals in them, most of their talent lies in going forward and they struggle to keep cleansheets. They will be severly handicapped by suspensions to Spahic, Muratovic and Rahimic, which will limit their defensive options still further and I believe they will simply go for it sooner rather than later, this could be suicide of course and even without Ronaldo, the Portugese have enough talent to carve B&H open on the break. The visitors are at their best and happiest when they do not have to make all the running and surely we will see goals this time, which is normally the case in Zenica, with the five group games here averaging 4.8 goals.

5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.05 asian line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY .....

Very quiet day betting wise today, the international fixtures have once again played havoc with our favourite pastime and many of us are looking forward to a return to normality at the weekend, when the major european leagues restart .

Having said that, I remain in excellent form , with six winners from just eight selections last week on the email service. That makes six winning weeks in a row, during which I have given 65 selections, 40 of which have won, giving a 61.54% strike rate and making almost 93 points profit, that is about as good as it gets, regardless of what other sites might tell you. Whilst there is only limited output on here, I hope that you have still done well over this period and I will continue to post previews on the blog whenever circumstances allow.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..........

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 14TH

Three selections today, just brief comments I am afraid, but I am keen on all three, especially xxxxxx, however, I have reduced stakes slightly as the weather is very bad in the UK, with heavy rain and high winds and it is impossible to know which games might be affected.

ENGLAND

DIVISION 1

BRISTOL ROVERS - CARLISLE UNITED

Unless the weather takes a big hand here, it is very hard to see this game not producing goals. Carlisle appeared in my stats round up earlier in the week, they create a lot of chances and have done so all season, even when they were struggling earlier in the campaign. Now those chances are turning into goals, with ten in their last four starts and their last five games have averaged 3.8 goals. Their confidence is high and they will take the game to Rovers and arepeat of their 3-2 win here last season is not out of the question and there are certainly far worse 33-1 shots out there.

Hosts were expected to suffer a backlash this season following the loss of Rickie Lambert to Southampton, but started their year on fire and were pushing for a top four place, however, there has now been a levelling off and results have nosedived, they have lost six in a row and conceded an enormous 18 goals in the progress, two or more in each of those games.

Hard to see the hosts keeping a cleansheet and this seems certain to develop into a shootout.

6 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.85 asian line.

1 point "over" 4.5 goals circa 5.50 general quote.

DIVISION 2

The rest of the email is for subscribers to the email service.......

Good Luck.

FOOTBALL LEAGUE STATS ..........

Briefly, here are a few stats which might help you in the battle against the oddsmakers. Regular readers will know that I am keen on the attempts on goal stats and feel that they are a good starting point in an attempt to find future winners/potential improvers and just as importantly, teams that have been overachieving.

In the Championship QPR have been impressing many observers, including me and they are certainly racking up the chances, creating a division high 230 and hitting the woodwork eleven times. WBA are in second spot, which is as you might expect, but keep an eye on Ipswich Town, who are surely better than the league table suggests. They are third in the attempts on goal table and no team have managed more shots on target. Key marksman at the moment is Nicky Maynard of Bristol City with an incredible 34 attempts on target, they might struggle when he is missing.

Few surprises in Division 1, with champions elect Leeds also running away with this table, they have created 242 attempts on goal, no other team has more than 188 and Walsall are really struggling to create, with just 100 , 9.5 per game fewer than United. Carlisle have been near the top of this table all season, they remain in fifth, with only Leeds and the three relegated clubs above them. They are on a four match unbeaten run, scoring ten goals and I think there is more improvement to come from them. Swindon are on the playoff fringes, but are hovering around the relegation zone in this table and goals are obviously going to be a problem for them this season, they have failed to score in three of their last five starts and it is easy to understand why.

Jermaine Beckford has 71 attempts on his own which will surpise no one, keep an eye on Rickie Lambert who is now settlled at Southampton, he has 45 and the woodwork has thwarted him four times. He is not simply a goalscorer and has a number of assists to his name, I can see him and Saints having a big 2010.

In Division 2 Notts County and Crewe lead the way, Alex create so many chances, that they are ideal to follow in the "overs" market and can always be considered against almost anyone if the price is right, no draws for them this season either, so ideal for a straight win bet . I pointed out earlier in the season that Barnet were creating little and not much as changed in that regard, they seem a little short of playoff quality to me. The woodwork has not been kind to one or two in this division, especially Port Vale who have managed to hit the post or bar, a Football League high 13 times, unlucky for them ! They are on a long unbeaten run and maybe the draws will turn into wins, once the woodwork stops getting in the way.

Key player for leaders Bournemouth is Brett Pittman, who has 73 attempts on his own, just 45 less than the entire Barnet squad. They will do well to hold on to the 21yo, who has some spectacular goals to his name, in the transfer window.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ..........

It as a pity that Stoke couldn't hold on to their lead on Sunday, but the match at Upton Park went "over" and no damage was done. I remain in very good form and since October 22nd I have sent subscribers to the email service 19 winners from 26 selections, to be honest, most of these were easy winners and nearly all the losers led, or were unlucky, so it is not even true to say that we have been riding our good fortune.

That is a strike rate of over 73%, but you will see that it is "only"around ten selections per week. I changed my approach for subscribers a couple of months ago and have been giving far fewer selections, the benefits of this are clear for all to see. I am not giving this as a sales pitch, there are no available slots for new subscribers in any case, infact, there is a waiting list. Just trying to explain how difficult it is now for me to post more than two or three match previews on the blog per week, when I am only operating from a base of ten selections and subcribers are paying for those.

Today, I have just one selection and it is rated "very strong" so I will not be posting that on here, but I will put some stats on the blog in the next 24 hours which I am certain will help you pinpoint some future winners, so please check those out.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .......... BROWN'S MEN IN FOR ANOTHER TANNING ......

Brief notes about two of today's EPL games, Chelsea-Manchester United takes centre stage of course, but I guess that all of you will have your own views on that one......

ENGLAND

PREMIER LEAGUE

HULL CITY - STOKE CITY

These are two clubs which have gone very different ways in 2009, during the calender year, Hull have collected a meagre 16 points and Stoke, who now look a secure EPL side over two and a half times more, with 41 , that is almost a point a game more.

The mood at the two clubs is, as you might expect completely different too, the visitors are cock a hoop after winning at Spurs and fancy their chances against almost any non top 4 (5) side and even facing one of those at the Brittania. Hull take the field expecting to lose, boss Phil Brown is on his way out of the club, everyone knows that, but the board seem unable to take the decision and allow him more time to work on the tan. The team are under enormous pressure, they have not scored in 292 minutes of football and Geovanni, who has scored four of their last six goals is suspended today.

Stoke have spent wisely and have a strong, closely knit squad, such is their strength in depth now, that big money summer signing Huth, who returns from suspension today, might have to wait his turn on the bench. These are options that Brown simply doesn't have. The visitors have collected just four point less than Aston Villa in 2009, the Villans are considered a top six or seven side and people would be falling over themselves to back them here at circa 2.60 and I feel Stoke are a good value price.

6 points Stoke -1/4 ball 2.23 asian line.

WEST HAM UNITED- EVERTON

Both teams are struggling and have striker problems today, which is why the "over" odds have drifted, however, I view things a little differently and still expect to see goals today. It is defensively that these two have really lost their way, the visitors are without a clean sheet in eight starts and looked lost at times in the home defeat to Benfica on Thursday. West Ham were given the run around by Aston Villa in midweek, but managed to claim three much needed points, but they have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last eight starts. H2h wise this is a fixture which normally produces action aplenty and Everton have scored two or more on four of their last five visits to East London. I am sure that both managers will be greedily eyeing up the three points and will surely go for it, David Moyes might well have Saha, Heitinga and Neill back in the team today and if so, they would be my idea of the more likely winners, but the "over" looks a much stronger bet, especially given the odds.

6 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.12 asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ..........

ENGLAND..... CHAMPIONSHIP

DERBY COUNTY-COVENTRY CITY

I must admit that I am surprised by how poor Derby have been this season, when I expected them to at least challenge for a playoff spot. Nigel Clough has been in charge at the club for exactly ten months and I for one, thought that he would have turned them around by now. Admittedly his side have really struggled with injuries this season and there have been one or two recent signs that they are about to turn the corner and I fancy them to get a much needed win on Friday evening in this Midlands derby.

Clough's first win as coach came in this fixture back in January, which gives him and his team positive mental memories and facing a team struggling just as badly recently, they should be able to put that to good use. City have a very small squad and have also had a crowded treatment room, goals have been very hard to come by with just one in 360 + minutes of football and that came in a game where they were already 2-0 down.

Huge boost for County with the return of Dean Leacock, Jay McEveley and especially key striker Rob Hulse, who likes to play against City, scoring in both games last season. The home faithful will again turn out in huge numbers for this televised fixture and I feel we will see a return to form for County and a much bettter 2010 in prospect for them.

6.5 points Derby County -1/4 ball 1.92 asian line.

Good Luck.

ENGLAND ..............CHAMPIONSHIP

QPR- CRYSTAL PALACE

The weather remains pretty dismal in the UK and underfoot conditions will not be ideal for two sides that like to try and play football. I rate both of these better than the league table suggests and expect both to be knocking on the playoff door at least, especially Rangers. H2h meetings are traditionally very close and I feel both will start very cautiously this evening, Palace will be happy to keep things tight as the visiting side, against such a strong home team and QPR will be nervous after their terrific run came to an end on Friday night, with a loss to a physical Leicester City side, who knocked them out of their stride.

Hosts have kept an incredible 13 clean sheets in 15 first half starts and Palace have gone in level at the break in 8 of their last 11 games, only trailing in one of those. Given those stats and the prevailing conditions, I see the half time draw as offering terrific value.

6.5 points Half Time draw 2.20 + exchanges.

Good Luck.

NFL .........

It has not been possible for me to post any NFL selections on here this season, like on soccer, our core sport, I have been far more selective with bets this season and games previewed for subscribers to the email service. This has paid off handsomely, with six winning bets from just seven selections, a 86% strike rate, however, it leaves me with little opportunity to post anything on the blog, which I know has disappointed several of you. In addition, I have given one outright bet (reproduced below), the Saints are now favourites in almost every list at around 4.0 (3-1) making the 25-1 we bet at, available only in dreams.

There will not be any previews on the blog today, I only sent subscribers one (very big) bet so obviously that will not be possible to post, so until next week........

Good Luck.

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH

NFL

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - DETROIT LIONS

I do not normally like to give up such big handicap starts this early in the season, when many teams are happy just to record a win, but there appears to be a huge gulf in class between these two and in a couple of weeks time, this line would probably be three touchdowns and not two.

Saints have a terrific offense and scored a NFL high 463 points last year, they have brought in defensive guru Gregg Williams to tighten things up on the other side, where they will be far more aggressive this year. If they can get the two to both work, another trip to the Championship game (at least) is on the cards. Quarterback Drew Brees is telling anyone who will listen, that he is a firm believer and said "We all see this window of opportunity that we have and know we don't get many chances like this. We feel like it's our time."

Lions were dire last year and thumped 42-7 by the Saints in week 16, they will probably improve this season,that will not be hard, but I am not sure that throwing a rookie quarterback into the deep end, albeit the first overall draft pick, is a good idea. Matthew Stafford has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions in pre season and is likely to be in for a torrid time from the revamped Saints defense. I take New Orleans and will start our Superbowl book with a little on them too, they have a reasonable early schedule and the chance to build up some momentum.

6 points New Orleans -13 points 1.91 .......... even 13.5 points is acceptable to give up, but look for 13.

2.5 points each way New Orleans 21.0 + 1/2 odds 1,2...... up to 26.0 available.

SUNDAY ................

Swansea and Wrexham both won yesterday, hopefully, some of you took adavantage, it was a very good day overall with subscribers enjoying a couple of other email winners too and over 22 points profit on the day.

If you are betting on any of the games in the UK today take care, the weather is poor with heavy rain and high gusty wind, best to take a quick look in running before getting overly involved. The Oldham ground in particular is notoriously exposed and has always had my vote as the coldest ground in England, it's nickname of "Ice Station" should tell you all you need to know !

I saw that Huddersfield have been very well supported in that game this morning, perhaps people feel that the better footballing side might enjoy the conditions more, but it will not be a day for "fancy dans". Better to watch a little of all UK games first and then make up your mind.

Back later.

SATURDAY ...........

SCUNTHORPE UNITED- SWANSEA CITY

After eight games unbeaten, I think it is safe to say that Swansea are finally back on track, it was always going to be hard after Roberto Martinez left, he was Mr Swansea and took his top striker with him, but Paulo Sousa is from the same mould and is now making his mark in South Wales. The Swans are only five points off the playoff spots and f they they can start turning draws into wins a promotion push is not completely out of the question. They have been playing well, not just getting results and most of those games have come against good, ball playing, inform teams, including Doncaster, QPR (where Swansea had 60% possession and won the shots on goal count 15-7), Blackpool and WBA (57% 18-6). They have had a full week to prepare for this game, whereas Scunny were busy getting thumped by Manchester City in midweek, no real shame in that, but it was hardly a confidence booster.

There is more than a little bad feeling left over from an earlier Carling Cup game this season, when the Scunthorpe tactics left Sousa upset and reading between the lines, this is a match which he and his players really want to win....... revenge time. Off level ball I really like the visitors.

6.5 points Swansea level ball 1.98 asian line.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

EBBSFLEET UNITED- WREXHAM

Wrexham are my best bet of the day, they are a pretty big club at this level, but continue to underachieve. They have resources that few other teams have available and lower midtable, even with a couple of games in hand, is simply not good enough. Recent results have signalled an upturn and two cleansheets in as many starts, offer a platform to build on and they really should win with some ease today.

Fleet are heading nowhere fast and would be bottom of the BSP were it not for Chester's massive points deduction. The club is in a mess both on and off the pitch and boss Liam Daish spoke frankly this week saying "The club's rock bottom, we've got nowhere to train and I'm trying to turn this back to where we were. I'm not here to lay blame away from myself. I feel I've done the best I can with what has been given to me."

The club have no training facility and no funds available, to say they are goal shy is a huge understatement and they have failed to score in 67% of all competitive starts this season and just once in the last 650 minutes of football. Last week was a new low and they were comprehensively beaten 3-0 in the FA Cup by a lower league Bromley side.

The Wrexham board have again dug deep and allowed the team to travel south yesterday and stay overnight in a hotel, a rare luxury at this level and I expect the players to respond with three points and a very comfortable win.

7 points Wrexham -1/2 ball 1.94 asian line.

Good Luck.