SUNDAY .....

SERIE A:

LECCE- PALERMO

Huge , huge game for Lecce, they are six points from safety and now go into a series of three games which could offer a lifeline, today they host Palermo who are 0-4-9 on the road, with a 8-24 goal difference and then play Novara and Cesena the bottom two, results in the next fortnight are going to go a very long way to deciding their fate and they have to start with three points this afternoon. Palermo have not scored in their last two home starts ( Milan and Roma) and conceded four in Siena on their last trip off the island and arrive without Miccoli, Barreto and Pisano all of whom are suspended and big losses. Top scorer David Di Michele returns for Lecce, which is key and they also have increased options with a couple of others returning including Cuadrado and hugely experienced Gennaro Delvecchio. Hosts have to gamble for the win and there should be goals in this, with Lecce having scored six in their last two home starts, Palermo conceding heavily on the road and this fixture having produced six goals in similar circumstances last season. 1.5 points Lecce -0.5 ball 2.05 asian line.

Lecce : 3 Di Matteo Luca, 5 Esposito Andrea, 6 Giandonato Manuel, 7 Cuadrado Juan B, 8 Obodo Cristian, 9 Corvia Daniele, 10 Bojinov Valeri, 11 Seferovic Haris, 13 Miglionico Martin, 17 Di Michele David, 18 Giacomazzi Guillermo, 24 Muriel Luis, 25 Petrachi Davide, 26 Blasi Manuele, 28 Brivio Davide, 30 Oddo Massimo, 40 Tomovic Nenad, 81 Benassi Massimiliano, 82 Delvecchio Gennaro, 91 Bertolacci Andrea.

Good Luck.

UPDATE .....

Shame that having got their noses in front late, that Leeds United couldn't hold on for the win, still, with the level ball option there was no damage done.

The "over" in the Bury-Wycombe Wanderers game was covered inside 13 minutes and the "over" 4.5 goals given a mention at odds of 5.50 also obliged.

My only other official selection today won at odds of 2.19, so, no real complaints on the day so far, but still early days with two more active picks for tonight's action.

For subscribers: I am just about to send the Sunday email, four selections @ 2.05, 2.17, 11.25 and a very strong pick @ 2.06.... please check your inbox asap.

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

"MARCHING ON TOGETHER" ..........

CHAMPIONSHIP : LEEDS UNITED - WEST HAM UNITED

We took Leeds United at home to Southampton recently and somehow, I am still not sure quite how, Saints took all three points in a match totally dominated by United from start to finish, that day I wrote .....

Saints appear at first glance to be over their midseason wobbles and might well be playing top flight football next season, but I am still unconvinced by them on the road against the better teams, where they have shown very limited ambition at times. Nine times they have gone to play what could be termed promotion rivals and on each occasion, have set up too defensively IMO, happy to take a point, which is what they got in five of those games, losing the other four, so, five points from a possible 27. That is hardly form to strike terror into Neil Warnock's men and once again, I am pretty certain that Saints would take a point if it was offered now. This is "officially" Warnock's home debut, although he had already been appointed ahead of the late, late come from behind win over Doncaster Rovers, he oversaw the cleansheet at Portsmouth last week and will now want the win, which would take them right back into the heart of the playoff race.

Warnock is a man motivator and will have his troops fired up today, Leigh Bromby spoke about the boss this week and said "He's changed the mood of the place, he's experienced at this level and hopefully he can work his magic on us."His man-management is fantastic and he's a bit of character who says it how it is. He's a fantastic appointment."The lads respect him for what he's done, he can explode in the changing rooms, but it's all good. He knows how he wants to play and how to set-up."

NW knows several of the visiting team well, having managed them at previous clubs and knows how huge this game is for his team, as three points could get the juggernaut up and running. Lose and they will be faced with a postseason mountain to climb. Knocks for Lallana and Lambert for Saints, it will be a huge loss if either missed out. I just cannot pass on United getting a start in a fixture where I feel the away side would be happy to take a point .

That goal in the 1-0 loss, is the only one United have conceded since Warnock officially took charge, with two cleansheets and four points from visits to Hull City and Middlesbrough since then, two teams competing for at the very least a post season spot.If United have even half the chances they had at home to Southampton today, they will beat the Hammers with a degree of comfort. The visitors will be without Ricardo Vaz Te, Winston Reid, Julien Faubert, Guy Demel and Papa Bouba Diop who all miss out. Big game for the hosts, who need to build on their road results, especially with three of their next four starts coming at Elland Road, if they can find a way past WHU, the Warnock promotion train will have well and truly left the station, suspect Fat Sam would take a point, so Leeds with the draw no bet option, is too good to pass. 1.5 units Leeds United level ball asian line.

I doubt either side will need extra motivation this afternoon, but Warnock probably feels he has unfinished business with the Hammers from his Sheffield United days, this is the first time he has faced the Irons since attempting to sue them over the 2007 Carlos Tevez affair.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..... FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

.....talking of Huddersfield Town, they travel to Colchester United today and are proving a fanstastic money maker for "in running" player's brave enough to oppose them. The Terriers have drawn an incredible 13 matches in which they have led, effectively losing 26 points from winning positions, more than twice as many as any other team in the top eight . Those lost points cost Lee Clark his job and replacement Simon Grayson has so far failed to find a solution, losing leads against Rochdale, Stevenage ( two goals) and Bury ( three !) in his five matches in charge.

BURY- WYCOMBE WANDERERS

Two struggling teams meeting at this stage of the season usually means goals and that's what I feel we will see at Gigg Lane this afternoon, with these clubs no slouches in the goals scored and conceded department in any case, with an average of 3.6 and 3.9 respectively in their last ten starts. Bury have not won in ten, are hurtling towards the drop zone and are one of the clubs Wycombe will be looking to drag into the relegation dog fight, that they are already heavily involved in. The visitors have played nine road games since early November and conceded at least two goals in all of them, three of more in five, but have scored more this season than any other side outside the top 8. Bury came back from three down to claim a share of the points in their last home start and will be boosted by the return of striker Shaun Harrad who is prolific at this level,another high scoring thriller looks on the cards.Over 4.5 goals is far from unlikely and offered at 5.50 in a place or two if you are brave enough, this would have won in Bury's last three starts and in four of Wycombe's last six. But for an "official pick" ...1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.87 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY UPDATE :

Dartford : Wells, Jones, Green, Bonner, Wilkinson, Champion, Noble, Wallis, Erskine, Graham and Harris. Subs: Hayes, Garrod, Bradbrook, Burns and Ibrahim

Farnborough: Bradshaw, Smith, Treacher, Jeffrey, Berquist, Bygrave, Bennett, Moody, Charles, Ciardini, Page. Subs: Orlu, Laidler, Webb, Ferguson, Tokarcyzk

Latest score : 1-0 30 minutes

Update : 1-0 HT

Second Half Update : 2-0 55 mins

75 mins played: still 2-0

3-0 88 mins.

FT 3-0

Good Luck.

SATURDAY .....

CHAMPIONSHIP : PETERBOROUGH UNITED - BLACKPOOL (Written Friday 10.00)

Just one win in twelve outings since Boxing Day for United, that came against a very out of sorts struggling Bristol City side and the goals have dried up for traditionally free scoring Posh, with just six in their other eleven starts in that sequence, which combined with no cleansheets, is a very dangerous combination. They have collected most of their points against teams at the wrong end of the table, beating only one top 6 side they have faced all season ( Cardiff City) and they conceded three in that and could/should have lost that by a couple of goals. They are likely to have Lee Tomlin back this weekend, he returned to training yesterday and that will help them offensively, but their real problems are at the other end of the pitch. They were defensively dire in the 3-0 home loss to Millwall on Tuesday, the visitors could easily have won by five and after the second goal went in, even the home match commentator said that " now Posh have a mountain to climb and do not even have a foot on the first step", which says it all about their current predicament.

Pool are very motivated to bounce back after blowing a halftime lead at Derby County in midweek, they looked composed and confortable at the break, when they should have been a couple up and out of sight. That result leaves them in fifth, but the teams below them have games in hand and if they win those, the Seasiders will be down to eighth and a further two teams will also be within touching distance, so every point is now vital, especially with games against Brighton, Leicester, Reading and Southampton, all direct promotion rivals up next, so this is as "easy" as it is going to get for some time. Pool were ten matches unbeaten before getting distracted by a FA Cup run, they looked to be back on track, before the County game and will definitely not ease up this time if taking the lead. That is not their normal style anyway, they have scored a league high 31 road goals in the Championship and two or more in 10 of their last 14 away starts, three or more in seven of those. Portsmouth and Millwall, neither of whom are known for their free scoring ways, have already scored three at London Road in 2012 and Blackpool are a tempting 4.50 to follow suit. If Pool play as well as they can, or as they did in the opening 45 minutes in midweek and Posh anything close to how they played against the Lions, this will be over as a contest very early . 1.75 units Blackpool -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line.

Good Luck.

IKER, IKER AN NAY ( I bet you five dollars he'll kill you dead) .....

I write much about how my daily notes are worth so much more than the "bottom line", long term, results will take care of themselves, it is the content that is important and I believe almost every daily email contains something of value, some snippet which might help you find a winner in the future.

A few people were surprised about how comprehensively Athletic Bilbao outplayed Manchester United last night, but that would hardly have surprised anyone who read my notes on a regular basis. I have talked about United's defensive problems all season and been "bigging up" Bilbao for almost six months. I have reproduced a couple of those posts below and highlighted some pertinent comments in red. At the time I started writing about them as a top 4 contender, they were languishing in 19th place and were without a league win. Today, everyone knows how good they are !

Ahead of last night's match I wrote in my morning notes .... At times this United side still look very vunerable at the back, they could/should have been a couple down at the break to Tottenham on Sunday and have already conceded three goals here at Old Trafford to Basle and two each to Ajax and Benfica, you all know how highly I rate Athletic and consider them better than that trio and definitely expect them to score this evening. Over 7,000 Bilbao supporters have travelled to Manchester for the game and the atmosphere will be electric, Amorebieta will be suspended, but no other problems for the visitors and I am very excited to see how they match up with United, this is a big opportunity for the hugely talented Iker Muniain and Athletic to introduce themselves on a big stage and I have to take them getting a full goal start and also take a little on the goals flowing, as they often do at both ends with these two. 1.25 units Athletic Bilbao +1 ball 2.14+ asian line and 0.75 unit "over" 3.5 goals 2.90 exchanges.... the 7.50 + for Bilbao to win is way too big too IMO.

Monday October 17th

New coach Marcelo Bielsa is a real one off and it has taken a little time to get his ideas across, but the benefits are starting to show and we can expect Bilbao to come on very strong in the next couple of months. Bielsa is very meticulous, he personally checks pitch measurements before every away game and has been known to give four hour press conferences ! He favours a high pressing game, with the strikers putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenders, whilst at times this looks a fairly rigid formation, he makes a lot of subtle changes during the course of the game, which sometimes give them five forward players. 18 yo Iker Muniain has been outstanding in the last two seasons and he has been very influential in the last two games, setting up a lot of chances for the front three. Far more options for the coach tonight with the return of big summer signing Ander Herrera from injury and Ekiza to the centre of defence after suspension and this is a young, developing team of huge potential. Fernando Llorente who has found his scoring boots recently, missed training twice last week, but is named in the squad and Bielsa has a habit of sometimes training strikers separately from the rest of the group in any case, so you can never be sure with him, I told you he was a one off ! You always get a tough physical challenge from Athletic and the visitors have really struggled here in recent seasons, not scoring in five visits and losing the last four.

Thursday October 27th

Finally ! The late goals have started to come the correct way, which of course, is in our favour ! Levante and Liverpool both found winners inside the final five minutes and kept up our 100% record ( five from five) for the new week, actually the last 34 "official" football selections have produced 25 winners.

One of those was Athletic Bilbao (see below) and I am going to start with their attractive home fixture with Atletico Madrid. They started on fire in the Osasuna game, racing into an early 3-0 lead and coasting home despite the visitors claiming an injury time consolation goal. Bilbao have subsequently continued their recovery with a draw at Mestalla and can move into the top eight with three points this evening. Wildly talented Iker Muniain scored in both matches and looks a player to build a franchise around. Now that coach Marcelo Bielsa has got his team up and running and signing from his hymn sheet, I do not want to rush to oppose Athletic, a top four push is certainly not out of the question, they were sixth last year anyway and it is hard to make a case for Valencia, Sevilla and especially Villarreal being stronger this time round. With a tough November ahead, including a visit from Barcelona and trip to Seville, they should be extra motivated for points tonight and at Gijon over the weekend and this looks a very good time to be playing Atletico, who are another potential rival for a high finish. The capital's second club started the season well enough, but a heavy loss to Barce appears to have knocked their confidence and they have lost their way, they are without a win in six, or a goal from open play in four starts ( they scored against Mallorca from the penalty spot), or of any kind on the road domestically. Star 40m euro striker Radamel Falcao has not been firing and is said to be struggling with gastroenteritis over recent days. Hosts will be without Carlos Gurpegi for several months, but the veteran midfielder has been a fringe player under Bielsa and I do not see this as the loss it would once have been. I have to stick with the hosts Athletic Bilabo -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 30TH

In La Liga , I am going to stick with Athletic Bilbao who make the short trip along the coast to face Sporting Gijon, a venue where they have traditionally done well, being unbeaten on their last four visits. We have discussed them a lot recently and the last two of those previews were included in Thursday's email, which I have reproduced below. Not much point in going over old ground, they saw off Atletico with a very strong second half performance and a win today will keep them within touching distance of fourth place and that is essential, with two very tough matches up next against Barcelona and Sevilla. When everything clicks for this Bilbao side, I feel they are a match for anybody ( the top two aside) in La Liga and certainly should be looking for maximum points at venues like El Molinon. Hosts have found some recent form, but it has come against inferior teams to Athletic, they are a limited team and club, that have already lost three home starts and have done remarkably well to stay in the top flight for three season, especially given that they lost 23 matches in the first and won only nine in the second ! My only concern is the early kick off, especially given that Marcelo Bielsa's team played on Thursday, but I really like them as a team and him as a coach and feel that both will make us a lot of money this season and certainly do not want to dessert them now that they have hit form.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ......

West Ham United had enough chances to have beaten Watford with a degree of comfort last night, but not for the first time this season, especially on home soil, lacked a cutting edge.

Dundee United had won easily the night before and Bologna on Sunday, when goals and cards also came in the Rome derby as discussed, infact, the first of two red cards were waved inside seven minutes, so, not too long to wait for a payout there.

Hugely interesting day today, I have put up six selections in total at average odds of almost 14-1 ( biggest around 50-1) in my daily email notes, which I also sent to about a dozen of you who have registered for the freebie email (see box to the left of this post). If you have previously registered but didn't get a copy today, don't panic, you can expect one over the weekend. If registering is too much trouble as it takes almost 15 seconds ( !), I will definitely be posting a preview or two on here over the weekend.

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM MY WEDNESDAY NOTES ......

........be possible to cover for a good profit if we are still all square after 20 minutes or so.

CHAMPIONSHIP : WEST HAM UNITED - WATFORD

The Hornets claim to be coming for the win and that must be good news for the Hammers, with most teams coming to Upton Park looking to shut up shop. I do not think these are hollow words from Sean Dyche, as his side play an open style and the come from behind win over Burnley at the weekend, has left them free of any relegation worries. However, defensively they are in a bit of a mess, having conceded 11 goals in their last four starts, two big thumpings by Crystal Palace ( who rarely hammer anyone) and Southampton on home soil, they were sandwiched inbetween the win over the Clarets and one over Leicester City, both by the odd goal in five and both, probably games they should have lost. That might say something about their fighting spirit, but just as much about their defensive frailities.

The Hammers will go top with a win, but more importantly give them a four point advantage over rampant Reading, who are closing in fast on a top two place. United had a fine 2-0 win at Cardidff City on Sunday, the opening goal was scored by the returning Kevin Nolan an absolutely key player for them and Fat Sam will also be able to call upon another trio of returning players in Matt Taylor, Julien Faubert and Winston Reid tonight and a squad that was looking threadbare a month ago, now has, by Championship standards, an abundance of riches. West Ham are up for this, they owe their loyal supporters a win after consecutive home draws and have reduced admission prices for tonight and the game with Doncaster Rovers at the weeeknd to get as big a crowd as possible behind them in the final promotion push. Two huge games, six points would see them with a couple of toes back in the EPL and I expect them to get the first of them this evening, with the Hammers midfield far too strong for the visitors. West Ham united -1 ball 1.93 asian line.

SERIE A : BOLOGNA - JUVENTUS

Really........

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM MY MONDAY NOTES ......

........but I am going to personally play the "over" market ( whatever it might be) around the 75th minute and maybe push it again for micro stakes around the 83-84 minute mark, when we should get very big odds.

SPL : DUNDEE UNITED - INVERNESS CT

We discusses United quite a lot last month , especially around the cup game with Rangers, they are mow unbeaten in six, with four wins from five starts and three consecutive cleansheets, the only goal they have conceded in 455 minutes came in a 5-1 win on the road at high flying St Johnstone, where they did us a favour and three points tonight would not only cement their top six place, but would take them into fourth and a european place. They would love that ahead of a visit from Glasgow Rangers at the weekend, despite the huge problems the Gers are facing, it will still be some time before the other clubs in the SPL view that as anything other than a huge and tough fixture. ICT are without a win in five and in that sequence have played the top two three times, so will have had to work hard for scant reward, but whilst you could argue they might be up for an "easier" fixture, they also failed to beat basement club Dunfermline in that sequence. The visitors have conceded more road goals than anyone apart from the bottom two, but appear safe from relegation concerns at present, but also unlikely to break into the top six, ahead of the playoffs, to do so, they simply have to collect all three points tonight, so will surely have to open up at some stage, that should play into United's hands and with the Arabs already having collected six points and the same number of goals from the two earlier league meetings this season, a third win for the home side looks firmly on the cards. 1.25 units Dundee United -0.75 ball asian line.

LIGUE 2 : NANTES - LE HAVRE

These two are six and nine points respectively off the promotion spots with this game in hand, they are also eleven and eight off the relegation spots and the .........

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM MY SUNDAY NOTES .....

...........He added that he enjoys being in contention and that he is really looking forward to Sunday. Both his wins came at tough par 70 course, where he made few mistakes in contention and a similar approach will take him close this afternoon.

SERIE A : BOLOGNA - NOVARA

We may only be in the first week of March, but the visitors are already drinking in the last chance saloon, nine points from safety, today they visit one of the very few clubs they can hope to drag into the relegation scrap, so surely will have to go all out for the three points.

They have won just three starts all season, incredibly, doing the double over Internazionale, their win at the San Siro being the most unlikely result of the whole campaign so far. Inter had 30 attempts on goal, but couldn't break through, Novara, consious of their position at least tried to take the game to the Milan giant and we can expect more of the same today.

Bologna are two points above Siena, with Lecce a further two adrift in the final relegation spot, the home team host Juventus in midweek and go to Lazio next weeeknd, so failure to capture the spoils today, could quickly land them in big trouble, so they too, should be desperate for all three points.Hosts won the reverse fixture 2-0, that was very comfortable and the scoreline could easily have been doubled, Bologna coach Stefano Pioli will have all of his players available and they are hungry to bounce back after suffering their first defeat of the New Year at Udinese last week, that sequence included three home cleansheets and avoiding defeat at Inter, Roma and Napoli. Home win. 1.5 units Bologna -0.75 ball 1.98 asian line.

SERIE A : ROMA - LAZIO

Very tough to call Rome derby, which is almost always fiesty and this will be little different, with Roma in a must win situation. No bet for me, but if you are watching, there will probably be goals and plenty of cards, last four meetings have averaged six yellow cards and the last three league meetings have seen three dismissals. With so much on the line today, tempers will get frayed and this will get nasty at some stage. Referee Mauro Begoni was in charge of Napoli - Inter recently ( six yellow and one red), so can wave the cards when required. Roma's Daniele De Rossi has collected cards in the last three and will return today and was very vocal about the referee after the last game, hard to see him not collecting a fourth, with him so important to this leaky defence and Lazio surely looking to put pressure on him.

LIGUE 1 :LORIENT - RENNES

Defeats for Saint-Etienne, Lyon and Marseille yesterday and dropped points for Lille and Montpellier have opened up the race for Champions League places in Ligue 1 and a win for Rennes in the Breton derby game, would ..................

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 28TH

Dartford saw off Basingstoke Town 4-1 last night courtesy of a Danny Harris hat-trick, that closes the gap at the top to "just" nine points, if they can win their game in hand and continue to play at their current level, there might still be some life left in the BSS title race, with the Darts playing the better football right now and Woking showing signs of feeling the pressure, anyway, something to keep our eye on.

Busy midweek and tomorrow's email will be of special interest with four previews and selections at odds of circa 8.0, 5.50 and 3.75.

Today, I am going to concentrate solely on League 1, where three of the four fixtures offer betting opportunities, but first, a few words about the title and playoff race. Despite Charlton Athletic having a ten point lead at the top of the table, I still do not feel that anything is decided yet, with almost a third of the season remaining. There is very little to split the top five teams IMO, it is just that the South East London side have yet to hit the kind of blip that almost every team has, but it doesn't mean that it isn't coming !

I have been through all the remaining fixtures and feel that xxxx xxx xxx xxx ( rest of this part of my notes is restricted)

LEAGUE 1 :

ROCHDALE - NOTTS COUNTY
CHESTERFIELD - CHARLTON ATHLETIC
STEVENAGE - HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

Three hugely interesting match ups.

Rochdale are rejuventated under John Coleman, a talented coach who performed miracles in over a decade at Accrington Stanley, on what, to describe as a shoestring budget would be a major understatement, probably the lowest in the Football League. Not only did he keep them afloat financially, got them into the FL and challenging, but did so, selling all the time and playing an attractive brand of football.

Dale will not be too worried about the style of football they play for the time being, last year was their first season in the third tier, after 41 years in the "fourth" division and Coleman's mission is just to keep them in League 1.

He immediately endeared himself to supporters, by winning the derby game with Bury 3-0 on his debut, the two clubs are huge rivals and that was really a dream start. They didn't have the chance to build on that as the weather interfered and after a 17 day break, they were rusty in a narrow loss at Scunthorpe United, but have since beating promotion hopefuls Bournemouth 1-0 here and taken road points at leaders Charlton, where they were close to a famous win and Colchester United, so just one defeat and eight points from five very tough fixtures. Things do not get any easier after tonight, they host 3rd placed Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend and they then travel to Carlisle United (6th) and Huddersfield Town ( 4th), both strong home teams, so this is as good as it is going to get for the time being.

County also have a new boss, Keith Curle replacing Martin Allen recently and he started with consecutive home wins against Stevenage Borough and Chesterfield last week, fantastic way to start, but good fortune in that they met a Boro side running on empty, just three days after they chased Tottenham Hotspur all over the pitch for 90 minutes and then found a late winner against the run of play, against Field, who were having an off day after a good run of form. County also made the most of home advantage and basically flooded an already heavy pitch at the half time break to suit their style of play. The visitors are far less effective on the road, where they have already lost ten times, the most of any team outide the bottom eight and after two very gruelling games in the last six days and however tired Boro were, they will work you very hard, I give the hungry hosts the clear edge today. Rochdale -0.25 ball 2.25 asian line.

xxx xx xxxx x x x ..... Other League 1 previews are also "restricted".

Good Luck.

contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

MONDAY ....FEELING GRUMPY !

Marseille's loss was tough to take, they were denied a very obvious penalty in the first minute, when Brandao was brought down clear on goal, I just do not understand why match officials think that any striker is going to "go down" under those circumstances, unless clipped. The incident came just 23 seconds after kickoff, yet somehow the referee was 40 metres behind play, you can see him just crossing the halfway line in the background ( not that I am bitter or anything !).OM later hit the woodwork twice, had 22 attempts on goal, 13 corners and 65% of possession !

If, that left me feeling a little grumpy, what happened later in the day , saw the laptop land halfway up the back garden and me on the window ledge debating about whether to follow !

On the USPGA tour , I had put up a bet on Robert Allenby at 16.0 + in the morning ( see below), he had a two stroke lead with one hole to play and was trading at sub 1.05 on the exchanges. He had played a bogey free round until then and could afford a one over par five at the 18th to win, he had played the hole 4-4-4 over the first three days, yet took a SIX ! This put him into a playoff with rookie John Huh, again Allenby traded very low in running, I saw 1.23, but the Australian found a way to lose at the eighth extra hole ! So many things happened from say the 16th regular hole onwards, it was incredible and maybe one day soon I will laugh about it, just not today ( !), under identical circumstances, Allenby would probably have to play 250-300 rounds without coming out on top !

I am assuming that Lady Luck has something very nice in prospect for me shortly !

Good Luck.

written Sunday @ 11.20 UK time

MAYAKOBA GOLF CLASSIC

LEADERBOARD

-12 SUMMERHAYS

-10 STROUD

-8 ALLEN

-8 CLAXTON

-7 TURNESA

ALLENBY

-6 HOWELL III

BAIRD and four others

This is a poor leaderboard, full of players who have never won, or others for whom their sole claim to fame is so long ago, even they have forgotten it.

Summerhays is favourite across the board by virtue of his lead, but has played 34 tour events and only twice made the top 25, never the top ten and only played over the weekend ten times, hard to know how he will be feeling today, I doubt he slept too well last night. He does speak spanish, which probably helps him a little playing in Mexico, but I couldn't consider him at the odds offered. His post match interview hardly filled me with confidence either, you learn to read between the lines with these comments made post round and he sounded worried about his putting and the conditions. This is a tough course when the wind blows btw and there are some gusty conditions forecast for the area today.

Chris Stroud has yet to win either, or post a top 3 finish, his best ever placing was fourth here last season, so he clearly likes it here, but he is steady and a bit of a plodder, a journeyman pro who will make a good living on tour, but little more. He is also 30 on Friday and this is a difficult age for a golfer, we have discussed this many times before, so most of you know my thoughts, he could win from this position, but any big improvement is likely once this key birthday has passed and not before.

This pair have a four stroke lead over the field and that might be enough for one of them to hold on, however, I would prefer to chance a few euros on someone else and the class act in the field is Robert Allenby. He is a four time winner on the US tour where he has banked $21m and is a big winner and earner around the rest of the world. He has never quite lived up to his huge early promise, but knows how to get the job done and key stat might be that three of those wins came in playoffs, this event went to extra holes last year and if the front pair start to come back to the field, that knowledge in his memory bank will help the Australian. Having grown up in Melbourne, he is a fine player in windy conditions and unlike most of the others on the leaderboard, he will be hoping the wind gets up this afternoon. I assume he is only playing here at the request of his idol and great friend Greg Norman who designed the course, Norman played this week but missed the cut ( he is 57 yo) , however, pretty sure that he will be following his pal today and with Norman having shown great faith in Allenby at the Presidents Cup, it would be the perfect way to repay him by putting in a huge charge today and of course, no one knows the layout here better than Norman. Allenby's all round stats have looked good all week, maybe his driving could improve a little, but conditions might throw everyone off in that respect today, at least a little and he is also a good early season player. We can try a little at big odds .... 0.5 unit Allenby outright 16.0 + on the exchanges.

contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

OM HAPPY TO HIT THE ROAD .....

LIGUE 1 : BREST -OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE

To say that Brest are draw specialists is a bit of an understatement, they have finished all square in 14 league starts already and I feel that lack of ambition and negative approach is likely to cost them dearly come the end of the season. It is all well and good to set up defensively against the best that Ligue 1 has to offer on the road, but to adopt the same policy at home to Dijon and on the road at Ajaccio was too much IMO. They got a point in each, but surprisingly didn't look that solid at the back and it is a very dangerous game they are playing. I can see that they might feel they are playing to their strengths and their is a case for them looking to keep things tight today, but my problem is that this would be their gameplan regardless of who they were playing, or whom they had available.

The hosts lost top scorer Nolan Roux who joined Lille in the transfer window ( one goal , deep in injury time from a defender in four starts since he left), as replacement(s) they brought in Issam Jemaa from Auxerre, who is suspended today and Alexandre Alphonse from Zurich who is injured. Also out injured are eight other players, they are mainly fringe players, but all play in midfield/forward positions so options in those areas, especially in the holding role are a little limited.

OM have been playing a lot of football and are still battling on four fronts, but they do have a free midweek after this game and I think they will be very motivated to pick up maximum points today, which would take them right back into the Champions League race for next season. They have a decent enough record at the Velodrome, but always look a better side on the road to my eyes, I hope they start with Brandao up front again as away from home his hold up play works well, Valbuena is one of the most mobile "playmakers" you will see and I think he will get plenty of time on the ball today. Think the visitors will be happy to play a road game, on the basis that a change is as good as a rest, with this their first away league game of the month, that should freshen them up after a run of games under intense pressure/ levels of expectation from their loyal supporters. 1.5 units Marseille -0.5 ball 2.07 asian line.

OM: Gardiens : Mandanda, Bracigliano
Défenseurs : Azpi, Fanni, Diawara, Nkoulou, Morel, Sabo, Traoré
Milieux : Diarra, Kaboré, Cheyrou, Amalfitano, Valbuena, A.Ayew
Attaquants : Brandao, Gignac, J.Ayew

BREST :Elana, Cappone - Baysse, Kantari, Martial, Daf, Zebina, Makonda, Coulibaly - Licka, Ewolo, Lesoimier, Guidileye, Sissoko, Grougi, Khaled - Poyet, Ben Basat.

Blessés : Culma (hanche, reprise), Touré (pubis), Lorenzi (cuisse, reprise), Micola (genou), Ferradj (genou), Ayité (cuisse), Alphonse (cheville, reprise), Brou Apanga (genou, reprise).

Suspendu : Jemaa.

Good Luck.

CITY NEED POINTS WITH TOUGH MONTH AHEAD .....

CHAMPIONSHIP : COVENTRY CITY - BARNSLEY

Barnsley did us a favour last weekend eventually seeing off ten man, injury hit Portsmouth, but they made quite hard work of it and also had a tough game in midweek, losing 3-1 at home to Birmingham City, the Championship's form team. That result effectively ended their season, they are booked for a midtable finish almost regardless of what happens between now and the end of this campaign and boss Keith Hill will soon start to look building for next season, team selection today might alreday indicate that if he sticks with 17 yo Paul Digby. The match against City was the tenth time in 15 starts that they have conceded two or more and just one cleansheet in that sequence appear to tell you everything about where their problems lie, however, they are losing the battle further up the pitch, bad luck with season ending injuries to key players have left them overrun in midfield at times in quite a lot of recent games and that is putting too much pressure on the backline.

City have had a terrible time of things this season, both results and injury wise, but the treatment room has started to clear and coach Andy Thorn has Cody MacDonald and Sammy Clingan back in training this week and with Oliver Norwood ( Man U) and Alex Nimely ( Man C) on loan form the top two clubs in the EPL and already making good contributions, Thorn has said this is the strongest his squad has looked all season. We have yet to see too much of an improvement on the road, but they have won four of their last five starts here at the Ricoh Arena , beating Leeds United, Brighton and Middlesbrough, all of whom are top ten sides and also Bristol City, they lost to Southampton in that sequence, but did lead the Saints for an hour. Portsmouth's ten point deduction has given all the other clubs battling relegation a boost and three points tonight, might well take City out of the drop zone, which is huge motivation, especially ahead of a tough run of fixtures in March.

Hosts have a terrific record in this fixture, being 6-1-0 in home starts and they have scored three or more goals in five of the last six h2h meetings at the Ricoh. 1.25 units Coventry City -0.25 ball 1.95 + asian line.

DONS FREEROLLING FOR TOP TWO SPOT ....

LEAGUE 1 : AFC BOURNEMOUTH- MK DONS

Dean Court is a very big playing surface, even bigger than the one at Stadium MK and should ideally suit the visitors style of play, they play a very high possession game and force teams to do a lot of work. They like to play from the back and the 78m wide pitch here should be perfect for them, any of you who watched the FA Cup replay with QPR will probably appreciate what I am trying to put across. I have seen them play a couple of times this season and feel they might be the best team in League 2, despite the table saying otherwise, they are very well coached by Karl Robinson, who will surely be at a bigger club next season, if Dons do not get promotion this time round. I feel they were distracted by that cup run, losing discipline in a couple of games immediately after and ground in the promotion race. They looked to have steadied the ship with points against Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday, games in which they were clearly the better team, but then lost 2-1 at Charlton Athletic in a joke of a game, Dons were best, played 50 mins with ten men and both goals conceded came from penalties, any visiting supporters at the game will have taken huge encouragement from the desire, heart and commitment shown by Karl Robinson's man in that game. They build on it with a 5-0 demolition of Oldham next time out and followed up with a narrow defeat of Bury in midweek. The loss at the leaders was only their third in ten road outings, the other two came at Stevenage, where again they played 30 mins with ten men and were allsquare before the dismissal and the other in that cup game at QPR, where they matched the EPL side and deserved at least to take the game into extra time. They scored in the other nine road games, averaging 2.33 goals per game and only Charlton, who are certainly the luckiest, if not the best team in League 1, have won more away starts.

Dons are nine points clear of Carlisle in seventh, so with that post season spot looking pretty assured at present, they are almost freerolling for an automatic place, they trail Sheffield United who are currently second by seven points, but have still to host the Blades and with MK having five home fixtures in March, there is still plenty of potential to make up ground before they meet. Finaces have improved for Bournemouth and they are a club to watch for in the future, but the real improvement is likely next year and tehy remain a team in transition. They have won just once in five starts, losing three, failing to score in two of those, both of which came against teams in the drop zone. The Cherries are injury hit all over the pitch, but especially at the back, where they have huge defensive problems, they have taken Miles Addison on loan from Derby County, but lost Stephen Purches with a double leg break during the1-0 defeat at Rochdale,Steve Cook in midweek for up to three weeks and four further defensive players in captain Adam Barrett, Mathieu Baudry (both hamstring), Shaun Cooper and Nathan Byrne (ankle), with 70 starts between them this campaign, are all struggling for match fitness. 1.5 units MK Dons level ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

OMG !

I was away for a few days last week, in the ten days since returning I have had 23 bets, 12 winners and 11 losers, one of the winners was 5.0 but a small bet, nothing very exciting, no fortunes won or lost. Unfortunately, I have posted five of them on here and all five have lost !

Not sure what the odds are on that, actually, I probably do ( 33649 divided by 462) , so 71.83 -1 to pick five losers .............obviously I have a talent for this !

That is the problem, as the blog posts are (almost) randomly selected from all my match previews, luck is going to play a big part. I could have picked five winners, which would have been much easier at 41-1, but obviously, either should be extremely unlikely from such a sample.

Anyway, bit frustrating to say the least. Having said that, I will not give up just yet and will be back tomorrow with a couple of previews.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY'S EARLY EMAIL .... IT'S ALL GREEK TO ME !

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 23RD .... sent overnight

Saint Etienne won 4-2 and Matteo Manassero beat Webb Simpson 3 &2 yesterday, hopefully we can add to those today. I have two emails planned for today, the second will contain one more football preview ( my strongest news of the day) and a look at day two of the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and that should be with you by 10.30 UK time.

EUROPA LEAGUE

OLYMPIAKOS-RUBIN KAZAN

Olympiakos won the first leg 1-0 in frozen Moscow last week, the match was played in an empty ( 1,600 spectators) stadium, devoid of atmosphere, Rubin had just flown in from a Spanish training camp and the weather and conditions were as much a trial for them as they were for the "visitors". It was hard to see too much advantage for the Russians, who looked rusty and also missed a penalty to further add to their woes.

Rubin have a vastly experienced squad, 14 full internationals were involved in the first match and they have picked up plenty of european knowledge over the last three seasons and I very much doubt they will be prepared to give up on this tie just yet. Coach Kurban Berdyev who has been in charge at Rubin for over a decade, admitted that he got the tactics wrong in the first half last week and felt his team would really benefit and come on for the 90 minutes of proper competitive action, which is very likely.

At the same stage last season , they lost 2-0 in Moscow to Twente and really came out all guns blazing in Enschede, pulling the two goals back inside 24 minutes. They eventually lost 4-2 on aggreagate, but will take confidence in how quickly they turned that tie on it's head and having avoided defeat at both Panathinaikos and PAOK in the last two seasons, this is far from a trip into the unknown for them.

Hosts will surely be looking to keep this tight and hold on to what they have got, which is very much the Greek way and they would snatch your hand off for a draw right now, especially coming into the game without four starting players.

Rubin will strip much fitter tonight, looking to play their favoured high pressing game which works well on the road, they really impressed in the group stage at White Hart Lane, at Dynamo Kiev in CL qualification and were close to putting Lyon out of the premier club competition. They have received a big boost with the return of veteran goalkeeper Sergei Ryzhikov for this tie, he is a steadying influence on the whole defensive line and I have to take the visitors and the draw. 1 unit Rubin Kazan +0.5 ball 2.20 asian line.

PAOK - UDINESE

First game ended 0-0, the Italian side enjoyed much the better of things as you might expect and created quite a few chances, but not for the first time, they looked toothless without Antonio Di Natale and they have failed to score in 243 minutes since both he and Mauricio Isla limped out of the match with Milan,earlier this month. They have travelled with the following group of players....

Udinese :Keepers: Handanovic (1), Padelli (21), Romo (28).
Defenders: Armero (27), Basta (8), Benatia (17), Danilo (5), Domizzi (11), Ekstrand (24), Ferronetti (32), Neuton (13), Pasquale (26).
Midfielders: Abdi (23), Asamoah (20), Battocchio (18), Bedin (42), Pazienza (4).
Strikers: Fabbrini (31), Floro Flores (83), Marsura (43).

That means no Di Natale, Isla, Barreto, Badu, Torje or Pinzi ( with an average of 19 starts between them this season) and instead just three strikers in Flores, whom they dare not risk losing to injury, Fabbrini arguably more of a midfielder and untried 18yo ( birthday last monday) Davide Marsura.

PAOK are in good shape, unbeaten in ten european matches and fully focused on this competition and having not conceded in three starts, they are coming off a 0-0 home derby draw with Aris, but will have had one eye on this and were denied five times by the woodwork, so they are due a change of luck this evening. They really impressed in the Group stage and looked a good team in their 2-1 win at Tottenham. Italian teams have no recent history in this competition, which they tend to treat with a hint of derision. Udinese have a massive Serie A game at Bologna on Sunday, where they desperately need to get back on track and retain their top three position. If they had to choose between winning tonight, or at the weekend, the domestic fixture would win hands down.

Hosts are very tough to beat here in Thessaloniki and even if Udinese were up for this and I am not certain that they are, their most likely route would be via a score draw, so no damage with PAOK with the draw no bet option, which has to be my pick. 1.25 units PAOK level ball 1.81 + asian line.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .....

Way off the mark with the two blog posts yesterday, I have/am looking at seven events today, so have a little leeway to put a couple up on the site , so hopefully we can get the blog back on track....

EREDIVISIE : GRONINGEN - PSV EINDHOVEN

We have discussed the Eredivisie outright market twice this season, both posts are reproduced below and in each we were firmly in the PSV camp. I have seen little to change my mind since. The Eindhoven club are now odds on across the board to win the title and Ajax, already eight points off the pace and having lost four in a row in all competitions, look to be out of the equation. AZ look their biggest rival in the title race and PSV can put some pressure on them, ahead of a tricky trip to Utrecht, by winning this late morning kick off.

They are coming off a 2-1 win at Trabzonspor in the Europa League on Thursday, that was a very convincing performance and they were worthy of a much greater margin of victory and never really troubled by the Turkish side. PSV kept all their stars in the transfer window as expected and have plenty of strength in depth in all positions and competition for places. Zakaria Labyad suffered a groin injury and not join his team-mates for the trip to Turkey, but trained Thursday and Friday in Eindhoven after an MRI scan did not show any abnormalities. Georginio Wijnaldum started on the bench and came on after 78 minutes in Trabzon, he is likely to be ready to start today and it was a sign that no one wants to miss out, as places are not easy to get back, that he chose to travel in midweek.

Groningen have lost their last three with a 1-9 goal difference and are desperate to get back on track, but the hosts are missing several key players today and have had big disruptions to their training schedule and seem low on confidence. The two clubs played the reverse fixture at the end of November, with PSV running out 6-1 winners, with the first five goals coming inside 55 minutes, that was a big deal for the Eindhoven club, coming against an opponent they struggled to see off last season and I expect them to follow up today, with a little style. 1.5 units PSV Eindhoven -0.75 1.80 asian line.

Back later.

written 29/12

We originally looked at the Eredivisie outright market in early October, that post is reproduced below in blue type and re-reading that, would probably be a good place to start. PSV have since closed the gap to AZ at the top of the table to just a single point, with FC Twente and Ajax a further four points adrift and Feyenoord six behind the team from Eindhoven.

PSV are now trading at a best priced 2.625, so any of you that got on following the original write up, has got a good value bet.If you missed out, I still feel the current quote is still too high and it seems sure to trade an awful lot lower in the coming month or two. PSV restart after the Winter Break with matches against Utrecht, Vitesse, Heracles and de Graaf, three are in the bottom half of the table and even allowing for Vitesse, they have an average placing of 12th in Eredivisie. They is a very comfortable programme in the opening month and fixtures that PSV have averaged 2.42 points per game from in the last decade. During this sequence AZ host Ajax and the Amsterdam giants also travel to Feyenoord,both fixtures where the points have tended to be shared around.

Looking at the longer term fixtures, PSV have already travelled to AZ, Twente and Feyenoord and whilst they still have to visit the Amsterdam Arena in late March, the other three contenders all have to to come to the Philips Stadion, where PSV have yet to taste defeat this season and have lost only twice in the league in 35 months ( 46 starts). All five named players in the original preview are in a settled PSV team now, Matavez, Toivanen and Wijnaldum scored the five goals between them in the 5-1 road win at Heerenveen immediately before the break and incredibly, all five were on the scoresheet in the 6-1 recent thumping of Groningen, so all are clearly contributing to a very strong offensive line up. They look sure to get stronger in the second half of the season, if anyone finishes above them, they will be champions, but it is hard for me to see beyond PSV for the title and if you are not already on and don't object to tying your funds up for several months then I make them a 2 unit bet @ 2.625 general quote, I anticipate that you could trade out for a profit shortly in any case, as you now could with the "original bet".Several players are being actively courted by EPL clubs, namely Erik Pieters, Jetro Willems and Martens, but Willems is only a "baby", Martens only joined in the off season and any moves for them would surely be more likely in the summer and the club have stated ( as they all do) that nobody is for sale.

I would like to discuss the outright betting market in Eredivisie, where I am far from certain that the oddsmakers have the correct favourite. Ajax are circa 2.25 across the board to follow up last year's win, but no team has retained the title since PSV won four in a row between 2004-5 and 2007-08, with AZ , Twente and Ajax winning one each since then, they are and remain the "big 4" and whilst Feyenoord look set for a better season than last campaign's woeful 10th place finish, they have a lot of ground to make up and have not troubled the top three places in over half a decade.

AZ lead the way at present with a four point lead over Twente and PSV, with the favourites a further two points adrift. Therefore, Ajax already have ground to make up on all three and their road form is a real worry, it almost cost them the title last season, especially when a defeat at Den Haag late in the season, left matters out of their own hands. Incredibly, they have now fallen behind in each of their last NINE Eredivisie road starts and there are only so many times that you can play that get out of jail free card ! After the international break, they host the leaders, so at least one of them is going to drop points and follow that up with another home start, when Feyenoord visit the capital. Either side of those matches are two Champions League meetings with Dinamo Zagreb, where six points for Ajax would put them back firmly into contention to qualify, with Lyon and Real Madrid also playing a double header in the next two rounds of games, the Amsterdam giants are far from out of things and they will surely be firmly focused on these upcoming games.

It really is PSV's turn for the title and they spent big in the summer to give themselves the best chance possible to win back the Championship. They spent close to 30m euros in transfer fees to sign Tim Matavz from Groningen, Georginio Wijnaldum of Feyenoord and the Utrech pair of Dries Mertens and Kevin Strootman. Mertens hit the ground running and has scored 11 in just 8 starts, Matavz was a little slower off the mark, as were a number of the new signings, but he also has six goals now and with Ola Toivanen also adding five, it is clear that this group and Wijnaldum scored 14 last season, are going to more than make up for the loss of last season's top scorer Balazs Dzsudzsak , PSV have spent the huge fee they received for him ( and more) wisely and look a much better squad this season IMO.

They are scoring freely with 20 in their last five starts alone and seem very unlikely to get sidetracked much in the Europa League, where one more win with four games to play is likely to take them close to qualification and they will be focused on their next two league starts, where they play two teams against whom they have fantastic records, firstly hosting Utrecht ( 10-0-0 in the last decade) and then traveling to Vitesse where they are 6-4-0, having won on five of their last seven visits. They have already hosted Ajax this season and had to settle for a share of the points in a 2-2 draw, but there were plenty of positives to take from that, they led twice and had good chances to extend their lead and have clearly improved since then. Ajax are unplayable domestically on a real going day, but concede too easily against even the weakest Eredivisie sides and are a little too willing to go toe to toe and shoot it out, sometimes you have to grind out a result. I do not think AZ and Twente have the class of either, or the staying power over 34 matches to win the title this year. I make PSV a narrow favourite and feel that at 3.25 + they are a very solid bet. I cannot put this in red type, as the top quotes are not avaiilable to all ( 3.75 V Chandler/ Blue Square..... 3.50 Corals/ Boyle/ Sky) , if there were similar quotes for big liquidity across the board they would be a maximum ( 2 unit) bet for me

Good Luck.

BETWEEN THE LINES .....

SATURDAY #2

I have had a good look at the PGA event the Northern Trust Open today, where Phil Mickelson leads entering the third round, but have decided to pass and will wait for tomorrow.

A few words about Big Phil though, I wrote about him in my February 5th email notes and have highlighted a few basic points I made that day .....

I feel all time great Phil Mickelson is a player we should keep a close eye on in the coming weeks. Big Phil traditionally starts the year very strongly, but has stumbled out of the blocks this season, but has shown clear signs this week that his game is close to coming together. He is a fantastic putter, but we have not seen the best of him with the flat stick in recent seasons, however, if you take a quick look at the transcript from his Thursday post round interview below, you will get a feel for how excited he is by his form on the greens.

PM also has a reputation as sometimes going through the motions when off the pace and whilst that might have been the case a few years back, especially late in a round, the stats do not bear that out when he is anywhere close to the top ten and he improved his position in three of the four times he started in the top ten last year, at a time when he was struggling with medication relating to an arthritic condition, in addition to both his wife and mother dealing with breast cancer, all three problems are much improved and now he is position to focus on his game.

He looks very fit and healthy and has played the back nine this week in -10, the front in +2, to put that into perspective, leader Levin is -8 and -9 respectively. So if Phil could pick up a shot or two early, or at least get through the sixth hole without dropping a stroke to par, there is no knowing how low he could shoot today. He is ranked first for putting this week and flew in his coach Butch Harmon to help with the rest of his game on saturday, which looked to have worked, as he hit the ball tee to green better yesterday. Mickelson went to college in Arizona and lived here for 12 years, meeting his wife and having a couple of children in the state. He feels a lot of affection for the area and is a guy who wears his heart on his sleeve, which is why he is so well liked,this is not a course where he is going to give anything less than 100%.

I can see a huge run at the Masters for PM this year if he can stay injury free and without off course distraction.

He finished down the field that day, but now just 13 days later, he not only won at Pebble Beach last week, but also leads at the halfway stage at the Northern Trust and is trading at circa 2.75 to win again. So, not much longer to get our money back.

I know a couple of you backed him last week and again this and also that at least three of you backed Zambia at 70.0 -85.0 + to win the ACN ( written 20/01 I do think that Zambia, available at 85.0 on Betfair for tiny money, will trade much shorter at some stage and will offer trading opportunities for whomever is quick enough to take it !) , so there have been some big priced winners between the lines in recent weeks. So, it is always worth reading the previews fully and getting the most out of them.

LIGUE 1 : DIJON- NICE

Huge game for these two clubs and one which neither dare lose. They have already met twice this season and both finished all square after 90 minutes and another stalemate is definitely a possibility this evening, but if there is to be a winner, it is far more likely to be the visitors IMO. They will certainly be the fresher after having a free midweek and have more options today, with Kafoumba Coulibaly back from the ACN and Lloyd Palun who returned from Africa last week and who came of the bench in the 0-0 draw with leaders PSG, both pushing for starts. Nice have upped their game since Christmas and had chances to win last week and performed well against the better clubs in recent weeks. They are battle hardened, in their tenth straight season in the top flight, seven of which they have spent in the bottom half, so old hands at these relegation battles. Dijon are in their first ever season in Ligue 1 and have made the most of their "go for it" style, despite conceding the most goals ( 42) and recording most defeats ( 12) in the division, their six wins have allowed them to stay three points outside the drop zone. However, they have not kept a cleansheet in eleven starts and they are probably a little too defensively naive for this level and it looks set to be a long three months or so for Dijon. They also played PSG this week, but only three days ago and lost 1-0, the goal ( once again) came from some suicidal defending and to be honest, they were fortunate not to conceded more and lucky to score nil ! Nice arrive full of confidence after becoming the first side to deny PSG maximum points under Carlo Ancelotti and believe they are much better than the league table suggests, I agree and have to take them with the draw no bet option. 1.25 units Nice level ball asian line.... currently 2.21


Dijon : Tchagouni, Reynet – Diabaté, Meïté, Diallo, Souprayen, Varrault- Marcq, Kumordzi, Sankharé, Bauthéac, Kakuta, Guerbert, Corgnet, Baradji, Bérenguer- Koné, Jovial, Thil

Nice : Gardiens : Fernandez, Ospina
Défenseurs : Civelli, Clerc, Gomis, Monzon
Milieux : Abriel, Anin, Coulibaly, Digard, Meriem, Palun, Sablé
Attaquants : Dja Djedje, Grandin, Guie Guie, Mouloungui, Mounier

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

SATURDAY .....

SPL: DUNDEE UNITED - SAINT MIRREN

We have talked about United the last two weekend's, the most recent is reproduced below. They won that 5-1 and are now up into the top six, they should have an eye on that fourth spot currently held by Hearts and a european place. They are currently six points off the pace but have a game in hand and two home games in the next four days, before travelling to Tynecastle next weekend, so they will be looking to go there with everything to play for.

Saints starting the season well, but are without a win in five SPL starts and are bound to be a little drained after a midweek cup trip up to the Highlands to meet Ross County, they won that replay 2-1 but it involved eight-nine hours on a bus, much on non motorway roads and played almost an hour with ten men ,now a trip to the division's form team ( Celtic aside ?) is far from ideal. However, they have a reasonable record in this fixture and normally find a goal, the pair shared four in the reverse fixture over New Year and at least two in five of their last ten visits here. I expect United to win, but think odds of around 1.76 are just about correct, maybe even a little short, but feel the "over" option at odds against offers real value, given the h2h record and that only Rangers have failed to score against the Arabs in ten starts and the Gers would not have scored if they were still out there now, it was one of those days for the troubled Glasgow giants. 1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.14 asian line.

Back later.

11/02

SPL : ST JOHNSTONE- DUNDEE UNITED

We discussed how poorly Glasgow Rangers played against Dundee United last sunday, but we also have to give credit to The Arabs for their performance, they were very professional and allowed Rangers almost no goal scoring chances and must be delighted with the cleansheet, their first in ten starts, goals have never been an issue for them and they have scored the most of any team outside the top five in the SPL. They can forget about the Cup for a month or two and concentrate on getting into the top six and the additional revenue that will bring. They make the very short 30 minute journey along the A90 to Perth to face Saint Johnstone, who have struggled on home soil recently, losing four of their last six ( 7 of 12) and collecting 63% of their points on the road this season. United have a fantasitic record here, 6-2-2 in ten visits, unbeaten in four, eight home and away and keeping six clean sheets in the process. United have only lost one of six on the road ( at Celtic) and only one to a non "Old Firm" team all season. They have the pace up front to really scare teams on the break and I can see them getting a lot of joy, especially down the left in this game, Saints also have a cup replay scheduled with Hearts in midweek and they might be tempted to give one or two players who are doubts for today, the extra couple of days to recover. I really like the visitors with the draw no bet option. 1.5 units Dundee United level ball 2.05 asian line.

SATURDAY .....

EPL: SUNDERLAND - ARSENAL
Strange game in as much as these two meet here again in the FA Cup next week, there is a strong case for arguing that a win today is more important for the Gunners and next week for the home side.

Arsenal are coming off a rare free midweek, so have had seven days to bask in the glow of their 7-1 defeat of Blackburn Rovers and Arsene Wenger at least knows his team are creating plenty of chances ( 54 in their last two starts, or one every 3.33 minutes), even if that was the first time they have really cut loose in many weeks, probably since the Wigan game in early December. Oxlade-Chamberlain looks the real deal already and he, along with Thierry Henry take some of the pressure off RVP, add the return of Arteta in midfield and suddenly, despite their defensive issues, they look a real team again. They do have the small matter of a midweek trip to Milan to consider, but first priority is a top 4 place and already trailing Chelsea and Newcastle United and with Liverpool now just a point behind and coming on strong, the Gunners have to go all out for three points today, especially with their next two league starts against Tottenham and Liverpool.

For the hosts, this will be their fifth start in 13 days and after extra time on Wednesday night, a lengthy injury list , secure in eighth spot in the EPL and with no realistic ambitions of a higher position and a big game next week, they can be forgiven for letting the intensity drop just a little. I have to take Arsenal and will opt for the bigger handicap now that they have found their touch in front of goal. 1.5 units Arsenal -0.75 ball 2.49 asian line.

Good Luck.

CONTE TO COUNT ON NEW SIGNINGS AT SAN SIRO ....

COPPA ITALIA SEMI FINAL FIRST LEG : AC MILAN - JUVENTUS

These Coppa semis tend to be keenly fought close affairs and I see this one following type. For the hosts, Zlatan has picked up a three match domestic ban, but it only applies to Serie A games, so he should play tonight. Milan have a very tough week in prospect, they go to Udinese at the weekend and host Arsenal in the Champions League on Wednesday, despite anything the club might say, tonight's game is definitely a poor third in order of importance and they will also be wary of collecting any further injuries, having an already busy treatment room , or to give too much away ahead of what might well be a title deciding league meeting with Juve here at the end of the month. Latest of those is goalkeeper Christian Abbiati, more of him later.

Storari will be start in goal for Juventus and coach Antonio Conte has also said that transfer window signings Martin Caceres, Simone Padoin and Marco Borriello will all feature at the San Siro.You could look at that as weakening the squad, but they are all either proven International players, or, in the case of Padolin, one already closing in on 300 games, most in "A" . In addition, 13 of the other outfield players named in the 22 man squad, have made at least a dozen starts this season, so hard to view this as the "severely weakened squad" I have seen it called elsewhere.

Milan have turned into flat track bully's, almost always beating the lesser teams ( they are 6-1-0 in starts against teams in the bootom seven), however, they are 1-3-4 in eight outings against other teams in the top seven, the only win coming 3-2 against Roma, where their opponents had 23 attempts on goals and 13 corners and that man Abbiati saved his team on numerous occasions. They did beat Lazio here in the last round, but that was on the back of the visitors second trip to the San Siro inside 4 days, they had lost 2-1 to Inter late on Sunday after leading and rested a lot of players for the second game. Actually, they led there too and Milan's third goal was offside, but that is another story !

Hosts have a powerful midfield, but they appear to lack the flair to really trouble the top teams in Seri A and with two such huge games ahead, I think we will see a low key home performance, having said that, they will not want to go into those games with a loss, so the draw option for me, a result I suspect both teams would be happy with ,btw, Milan have drawn their last three Coppa semi final first leg games. Draw 3.20 + quite a bit of 3.30 on the exchanges at present.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .......

EPL: CHELSEA - MANCHESTER UNITED ( written 19.00 saturday)

No Cole or Terry for the Blues, Drogba and Kalou are still at the ACN, Wayne Rooney and Ashley Young should return for United. Many people might feel that the visitors will have twelve men on the pitch with Howard Webb chosen to officiate, he has a reputation for favouring United, but the stats do not really back that up, although Liverpool supporters might disagree ! We have seen a big change this season in matches between the top teams in the EPL, all have been open, more aggressive , high scoring affairs, with Chelsea's meetings with the other five averaging 4.0 goals per game and United's nine starts an eyepopping 4.67 . Those fourteen matches have seen both teams score in 13, the only team who came up short, was Tottenham in their early season visit to Old Trafford and to be honest, Spurs should have scored a couple at least. Included in that squence of games, was United's 3-1 win in the reverse fixture, Chelsea didn't deserve to lose that day and missed a host of chances, 29 in total, along with 10 corners. The hosts will probably be a little more relaxed today than they usually are going into these fixtures and it is certainly more important to United who are set to go toe to with City for the title. However, I expect the trend to continue and definitely both teams to score, but also each to press in search of a winner, I have a feeling this might be Fernando Torres' day, goodness knows it has been long enough, but he played well in the first meeting and one day soon things will fall for him. Anyway, a confident "over" pick for me. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line.

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

Everton didn't win, but the late goal came and that was available at 2.96 in asia at the 80th minute mark.

I briefly previewed one other early EPL game ....

EPL : ARSENAL- BLACKBURN ROVERS

This pair had 58 attempts between them in midweek and scored..... zero goals ! Quite how Rovers came up short at Ewood Park against the Magpies will have to remain one of life's great mysteries, Yakubu must have scored six from the stands and the person sitting in front of him will have been black and blue in the morning. He is still suspended and Christopher Samba will not be considered, but these two create a lot of chances and in a fixture which almost always produces goals and a lot of them, it is easy to see an excess of excitement. The pair played out a seven goal thriller in the reverse fixture and something similar is not impossible, Robin van Persie always likes to face Rovers and he has scored 10 in his last dozen games against the visitors. Hosts had Sagna and Arteta back in midweek and they should strip fitter today. I think the three goal asian line is a little on the skinny side and am happier taking a little on the "over" 4.5 line @ circa 4.60 or the "over" 5.5 line at around 10.0, which would not surprise me at all, but for the purposes of the email I will leave those.

So, "officially" I have lost on those two games, despite "suggesting" four bets, three of which won at odds of 10.0, 4.60 and 2.96 . As I always say, my daily notes are about so much more than the basic results and there are plenty of winners contained within the content, if you are not too lazy to look.

Good Luck.