Saturday, August 27, 2011



Next email will be my "pre match notes" at around 14.15 UK time Saturday for the games we are following in the first half tomorrow, with an half time update to follow. The matches covered will be Chelsea- Norwich City, Portsmouth- Cardiff City, Ipswich Town - Leeds United and Brentford - Tranmere Rovers.

Going to start in the Championship and the Middlesbrough- Coventry City match up. We discussed Boro last week ahead of their home game with Birmingham City ( notes reproduced at the foot of this email), they were a goal down at the break, which came against the run of play, but were strong in the second half and led by a commanding performance by Faris Haroun who came on at the half, they ran in three unanswered goals. Tony Mowbray was keen to keep the momentum up and took a strong squad to highflying and high scoring Peterborough United in a midweek Carling Cup tie and will have been delighted with a 2-0 win, not least by the cleansheet. It also meant that classy Julio Arca who recently re-signed got another 30 minutes under his belt and should be approaching full fitness.

I really like these players Arca, Haroun, Bennett, Emnes all have a real touch of class and Mowbray has instilled a sense of belief in the whole squad, this is personified by being the only league team to twice come back from a goal down this season. They are on a very long unbeaten run and with this their last home start for 28 days ( international break and two really tough road games coming up), they will be desperate for the three points this afternoon. City arrive without a win in five games in all competitions and just a single league point, which came in a 0-0 home draw with another winless team Watford, with the Hornets having far more chances, including 11 shots on target. Money is very tight at the Ricoh Arena and takeover bids for the club have been going on for months, they lost their three classiest players in the summer and replaced them with two lower league "cheap" signings, they desperately need some investment and until it comes, anyone with top six aspirations should be looking to beat City. Boro are averaging 4.75 attempts per game on target more than City which is huge. 1.5 units Middlesbrough -0.75 goals 1.90 asian line.

In Division 1 the Bury- Charlton Athletic fixture features two teams who like to play the correct way and should be attractive to watch. Charlton were very busy in the summer with "new" boss Chris Powell bringing in virtually an entire new squad, this looks to have worked out well, as they have hit the ground running and won their first three starts, before sharing the spoils with Scunthorpe United last week, after leading 2-0 with just 17 minutes left to play. I have just watched extended highlights of that and to be honest, it would have been unjust if Scunny hadn't got something from a game they dominated for significant periods and in which, created the greater number of chances. United boss Alan Knill has got his team playing some nice stuff and very similar to how Bury played under him, which could be key this afternoon. I got very good reports about the slick quick passing football Bury played at Wycombe last week and coach Richie Barker who took over from Knill has been making full use of his contacts in the game and has signed some quality youngsters on loan, including Mark Cullen ( Hull City), Ashley Eastham ( Blackpool) and Kudus Oyenuga ( Tottenham). Cullen, Oyenuga along with the prolic Andy Bishop and Ryan Lowe ( who is on fire atm !) give them a real offensive threat. Athletic will face a similar side to the one that troubled them so much last week and a point here would probably be seen as a good result by Powell. Hosts go to Sheffield United next week, infact, three of their next four starts are on the road and their next home game is the "massive" local derby with Rochdale ( no love lost there), so as tough as this might look on paper, it is about as easy as it will get in the next month. I have to take the home team with the draw no bet option. Bury draw no bet 2.05 + ..... up to 2.10 in a place or two.

Stepping down a division ............the rest of my notes are unavailable....

Good Luck.

written August 21st

I like Tony Mowbray as a manager , he plays very nice football and knows this Championship and more importantly what is required to get out of it, as well as anyone. Money is very tight at Boro, but he has got a talented team together on a shoestring, unearthed a few gems like Marvin Emnes who has scored in every games this season and new signing Belgian international Faris Haroun, who is that most prized of assets, namely a midfielder who can score goals and got them playing a similar style to his wildly successful WBA promotion teams of recent seasons. Middlesbrough use the full width of the pitch and young full back Joe Bennett, who plays in a similar style to Ashley Cole and gets forward at every opportunity plays more like a winger in this very offensive team, he already has an England U21 call up this year and before Mowbray arrived, wanted to go out on loan to get a game, which is some indication of the effect TM has had. Birmingham lost a lot of talent in the summer and this small squad are stretched after a gruelling week travel wise, they were in Madeira late on Thursday and travelled all the way up to the North East yesterday, so a very strange and disruptive week with limited prep time for this tough game. They remain without Jerome, Zigic, King, Mutch and Gomis and are bound to be distracted by their upcoming Europa League match, their first at St Andrews in almost 50 years. Blues have been a little more adventurous on the road under Chris Hughton, which should suit Boro and it is the home win for me. Middlesbrough -0.5 2.05 + .... there is still some 2.10 around in places.



I send out free copies of my daily notes on a semi regular basis to everyone in my database, if you are not already on this list, please send me an email and I will add you immediately. If you have previously received freebie emails, then you are already registered.

Really busy couple of days in prospect ahead of the transfer window closing and I expect some very big late deals to be done.

Brentford signed the striker they have been chasing for the last month or two, with US striker Mike Grella joining from Leeds United yesterday. In turn the Bees have allowed Charlie MacDonald to join MK Dons, he was a crowd favourite at Griffin Park scoring 40 goals in 111 appearances, including 18 in their promotion season. However, he was set to play a supporting role this season and his lack of pace was becoming an issue. I think this is terrific business for Brentford and that Grella will be perfect for the new style Bees, having said that, I wish Charlie M well except when he faces his former club ! The domino effect continued with Dons striker Sam Buldock signing for West Ham and there are proably another 100 deals like this in the pipeline, with teams waiting to get someone in before selling and so on..... Scott Parker/ Luka Modric ?

Good Luck.

Friday, August 26, 2011


I put up two selections for tonight early this morning, the only one I planned to post on here has been backed from 1.94 into 1.77 so all the real value has gone, but you can find those notes below, along with some minor notes (no official selection) for an Irish Cup game .

The Boulogne selection, like almost every bet I have put up in the last week, has been possible to close out before kick off for a decent profit.

That is great, but it is making it very difficult for me to preview anything on the blog.

I have just ( 15.51) sent out my Saturday notes by email, three full previews and selections ( red type) and a pair of minor suggestions ( black type) and I will try and post one of these on here tomorrow, so please check back.

Good Luck.

Going to start with the Amiens- Boulogne fixture, not much distance between these two clubs and an easy and quick journey on the bus for the visitors. Hosts have just returned to the second tier of french football after two seasons in the wilderness of National and are struggling to come to terms with life at the higher level, they are yet to post a win and are bottom of the table after four starts.

Early days yet and they have definitely not been helped by injuries and suspension, but short of numbers again tonight, it might take them a little longer to get going. They are without three starters this evening including the suspended Rafik Saifi and captain Thomas Mienniel, who is absolutely key given the other absences is a big doubt, but has been included in the 18 man squad. Boulogne have opened with four draws and in very similar fashion to last season, when they drew their first six starts on the road, where like many teams in this league they operate a safety first approach, they are without Damour ( suspended) and Lachor tonight, but the very experienced Fabien comes into contention and they seem far better equipped to handle these losses. I have to take Boulogne the draw specialists getting the full half ball handicap start +0.5 ball 1.94.

With regard to the Irish Cup games tonight I do not have any official selections, but the derby game between Drogheda United and Dundalk is sure to be the usual blood and thunder high scoring affair, the pair always produce. The last nine h2h meetings have all produced at least three goals at an average of 3.89 goals per game. Neither will be concerned about the league and will give their all this evening. Hosts are booked for the relegation playoffs, being 13 clear of the automatic relegation spot and 20 adrift or survival and Dundalk can only finish either 5th ( unlikely) or 6th or 7th, so this evening is one of the few remaining highlights. The "over" option looks ok of course, but the quote that really caught my attention was the 4.0 for Drogheda to score "over" 1.5 goals with Bet 365, something they have done in seven of the last eleven h2h games, two of which were cup ties.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011


In the post below are my notes for yesterday's action, sent to my regulars at 15.17 on Monday, a full 28 hours + before kick off.

They do not show a profit, the Crystal Palace preview was just a "suggestion" not an official selection, so doesn't count. The two selections showed a loss of 0.63 units, so, in my official stats, the day is a loser.

However, if you can read them and think that the content is "losing information" and /or of no value, then I suggest that gambling is not for you and that you find a new hobby or business. It is not always solely about the bottom line, over the long term yes, but not over a few matches and the basic content of the preview is always more important than the tip..... always !

I have had to censor some of the Palace post as it contains some really solid news about Crawley that regulars will be able to use when the time is right.

The information and previews were very good for both Woking and Forest, it matters not that only one won, I would have preferred both, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Both teams traded some 20 clicks lower before kickoff and in asian markets, they are very valuable positions to have and the option to trade out with a guaranteed profit is/was there.

I am not able to post much on the blog nowadays, but you had five years of massive profits on here and there will still be the occasional gem, so please keep checking back and remember, always try to read the full post and not just the money line.

BTW I have just two selections for today, sent out to subscribers yesterday afternoon, odds were 1.87 and 2.25 and they now trade at 1.67 and 1.97, if they both lose are they bad bets ?

Good Luck.




I have three matches to discuss today, two Carling Cup and one non league match, I did have a good look at the Champions League fixtures, but have decided to pass.

In the Blue Square South, Eastleigh, who are having a shocking time of things, entertain Woking who are unbeaten after three starts, creating a lot of chances in the process and I do not see much changing this evening.

Hosts are 0-0-3 with a -7 goal difference and got a real tonking from a fairly limited Tonbridge Angels team at the weekend. This followed on from a very long midweek trip to Truro and back in midweek and 14-16 hours minimum on a bus, inside a four day period to get two beatings , must leave confidence and energy levels at a very low ebb, especially as they played 70 minutes with ten men and finished with nine players in the second of these. That means that an already skinny squad with just 8-9 senior players and a whole host of youngsters, is going to be further stretched tonight. When young players lose their confidence, it is very hard to get it back and this squad is really struggling.

Eastleigh had a poor end to last season, conceding a league high 19 home goals in the second half of the campaign and after a huge cost cutting exercise in the summer have carried that form ( and then some !) over to this season. Expectation levels were very low pre season and the coach described his job as "like climbing up Everest in flip flops", he was not helped by having three different assistants in pre season, the first two realising the enormity of the job and leaving to join other clubs !

Woking signed a whole crop of talented former players back to the club and several others who know what is required to get out of this division and are intent to finally return to the Conference. They opened with a fine 5-0 win at Sutton United GOAL HIGHLIGHTS and have since collected four points from two home starts, with a lot of goal scoring chances in each. In Ademola, Binns, Sole, Hammond and Cowan-Hall they have a huge amount of attacking flair and pace going forward and it might well be that they will have more joy on the road, when they have space to exploit. They were 15-3-3 in the second half of last season, which over a full campaign would have seen them win the title by 14 points and having started so well and boosted the squad considerably, they are not going to be too far off first place this time round. I have to make them a solid bet to record another comfortable road win. 1.5 units Woking -0.5 ball 1.96 asian line.

Next up is Wycombe Wanderers- Nottingham Forest. I am not keen on this Wanderers team, I saw them play three times last season and they were second best on each occasion, quite how they got promoted ahead of say Shrewsbury Town was hard to understand, but after 46 games I guess they deserved it. They have been a bit of a yo-yo team between Div 1 and 2 in recent seasons and will want to give priority to survival this season, especially after losing 2-0 at home to Bury at the weekend and losing their long unbeaten ( a lot of draws) record. They face two of the division favourites in Huddersfield Town and Brentford in consecutive matches next and could quickly find themselves in trouble, if they do not pick up something from those two games. This is an attractive fixture for them, but not one that has really attracted much public attention and they will not take any chances with players carrying knocks and there are quite a few. Defensively they leave plenty of gaps at the back and are a little slow to close players down, the quicker Championship visitors should enjoy the space and get a lot of joy going forward.

Forest were not in the 2-2 draw with Leicester City for the first 30 minutes, but there was plenty to like about the way they battled back from two down and whilst they seem sure to rotate a little tonight, what they really need is to build some momentum and a couple of key players urgently need some game time. Whomever starts will want to take advanatge, with Steve McClaren stating his intention to get busy in the transfer market this week, with three "stellar signings" about to be made. At Middlesbrough the coach always took the cup competitions seriously and I see no change in that this evening. Nottingham Forest -0.25 1.87 asian line.

I will not put this up as an "official bet", as I would like to see some confirmed line ups, but Crystal Palace who are very strong at Selhurst Part look very big to beat big spending Crawley Town. Hosts are 11-5-2 here in the last ten months conceding just 14 goals, considering they looked booked for relegation for much of last season, that was tremendous consistency. They have three wins from four starts this season and led in the single loss, already matching their road tally of wins ( one) for the whole of last season. They have a good mixture of experience and "hungry young players" who are "very exciting going forward" in the words of boss Dougie Freedman, they have a big home game with Blackpool at the weekend, but I would be happy to take some of this 2.29 if I knew they were naming a strong starting eleven, I think oddsmakers have gone too overboard about the visitors and that there will be value in opposing them in the coming weeks if we XXXX XXXXX X X XXXXX XXXX .

I am not covering any "in running" games on Tuesday, but will be going to either the Wycombe Wanderers or Maidenhead- Thurrock ( BSS) games ( both are local to me) to try and learn something for the future,so will not be wasting my time !

Good Luck.

Sunday, August 21, 2011


Carlisle United won for us yesterday and to be honest, I have been on fire over the last week.

Nine of my last eleven selection look to have won, I say look to have won as one which I put up as a solid 1.5 unit selection on Thursday, has not quite won yet, but is trading at circa 1.03, so could be traded out for virtually full profit and is a winner in all but name.

I have sent almost 75% of you a free copy of my notes on one day this week, every one of which has made a very good profit and hopefully, those who got an email today will also have some joy.

However, the really big news of the weekend is that Brentford beat Leyton Orient 5-0 and are up to fourth in the table. I know a couple of Orient supporters so this result is of extra value to me and I will be reminding them of the score on a daily basis this week !

Hopefully they will not be reading this, as I have to say that the result was a little flattering to the Bees, with the O's quite possibly the better team in the first half. But Brentford will take a lot of confidence from such a resounding victory and can build on this.

They have not really taken their pre season form into the league games so far, so to have nine points on board already is a real bonus and very encouraging.

Bees boss Uwe Rosler and Peter Gilham are very excited by the result ( see photo ) ! I wish I could explain how funny this photograph is, but you really have to know PG to get full value. So it is reproduced solely for my own amusement !

Good Luck.

Saturday, August 20, 2011


Taken from my notes written on Friday @ 16.16 .....the first of these is the Division 1 match between Carlisle United and Bournemouth, the Cherries have done us a favour recently, but they continue to sell players and the situation is getting a little silly now. They lost the cream of the promotion side and then coach Eddie Howe left for Burnley and he has taken another couple of key players with him including star player Danny Ings who signed this week. They sold Pearce, Wiggins, Hollands Stewart and Robinson in the summer, now Ings . If that was not bad enough, after taking in another big transfer fee ( £1m for Ings) the club have come out today and said they cannot afford two first team goalkeepers !

They make the very long journey north today on the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Stevenage, who are very physical and play at a terrific tempo, so far from ideal midweek opponents and Bournemouth will have to start tomorrow without their suspended captain Adam Barrett who is their most experienced defender, with such a young backline he will be sorely missed. A real tough start to the season and a handful of injuries for this already wafer thin squad and 30 minutes with ten men against one of the fittest lower league teams, followed by seven hours on a bus today, leaves them with it all to do today.

United opened with a frightful 3-0 home loss to Notts County, but have avoided defeat in three road games since, they kept cleansheets in the last two with young on loan Newcastle United full back James Tavernier impressing in both . They could do with another striker and I understand a deal might still be done today, regardless of that, I rate them the superior side and feel this is probably a very good time to be facing the Cherries. Host are tight at the back and well organised, but time for them to switch to 4-4-2 at home, instead of the preferred diamond formation and to really go for the win, the lack of goals is a concern, but is offset partly by the quarter ball quote . Carlisle United -0.25 ball 1.97 asian line.


Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011


These are basic pre match notes, no selection, just a starting point for my "in running" analysis.
I will send an update at half time by email , along with first half notes and any selections for the second half, within a minute or two of the first 45 minutes ending.

I have a contact at all three games.


City got back on track with a win at Ipswich Town where they enjoyed a lot of possession and they are probably happy to be back on the road tonight having gone 8-6-1 in their last 15 league starts away from the KC Stadium. They were unfortunate to draw blank in their opener with Blackpool and have a good mix of experience and young talent. United are in a bit of a mess at present and very short up front with Gradel, Howson, Becchio, Somna and Paynter all unavailable, they signed Andy Keogh on loan yesterday until the end of the year, which does increase their options slightly, but one goal and just 13 attempts in two outings are a far cry from last season's free scoring team and it is compounding by a misfiring defence, with too few players in their natural position.

Line movement: Very little activity today.

Team news : Keogh and Nunez start for United.


Hard to see too much being decided early in this game. Reading earned points from 58% of the games in which they trailed at the break last season and started in similar vein this campaign coming back from two down at home to Millwall. Portsmouth, as we have discussed many times are very much a second half team, they snatched a late equaliser at Middlesbrough on matchday 1 and only a missed penalty as time expired, stopped them from repeating the feat at home to Brighton on saturday. They deserved at least a point from that and with Jason Pearce back from suspension, Benjani having turned down EPL side Blackburn Rovers to make a return to Pompey and Dave Kitson also likely to be available to some degree, they have far more options tonight. Reading earned a fine win at Leicester City over the weekend and have three points more than Portsmouth in the bag, but both teams have had the same number ( 20) of attempts on goal and whilst this is likely to be another transition year for Pompey, they do retain a touch of class and I was very impressed by their workrate and attitude on saturday. Reading are unbeaten in nine road starts, but have not started the season with three unbeaten starts since 2003.

Line Movement: The "over" 2.25 goal line has been supported 1.90 into 1.80.

Team news: Pompey Kitson starts Benjani on bench.

Pompey: Ashdown; Ben Haim, Halford, Mokoena, Pearce; Lawrence (c), Mullins, Norris, Varney; Kitson, Kanu
Subs: Henderson, Rocha, Ward, Williams, Benjani

Reading: Federici; Griffin, Harte, Khumalo, Pearce; Karacan, Leigertwood, Kebe, McAnuff (c); Hunt, Manset


This looks likely to be a tough season for City, they have under gone something of a cost cutting regime at St James Park, have lost the prolific Jamie Cureton and are terribly short of striking options at present. They played well enough from box to box at home to MK Dons on saturday, but their lack of firepower was all too apparent and the sixteen attempts on goal they have created this season ( nine less than the Bees) include only a miserly five on target, only Wycombe have had fewer. They also appear a little distracted by the visit of Liverpool in the Carling Cup next week and that is overshadowing their league fixtures at present. Brentford made some odd changes at half time in the 2-0 defeat at Sheffield United, which I covered yesterday, those changes were purely tactical and remain very hard to understand, Rosler felt the Bees were giving the ball away too easily up front apparently. I hope and feel that lessons were learned, if Brentford are to get involved at the business end of this season, this is exactly the sort of match they need and ought to be winning. Interesting to see if Brentford start with Myles Weston, he has done very little in recent starts, but if you believe in "horses for courses" he has given the City defence a torrid time in recent meetings and I doubt they will be looking forward to facing him tonight. Bees scored six in two victories here last season ( league and cup) and also missed two penalties !

Line Movement : Lines vitually unchanged all day.

Team news: Weston and Forrester who chose Brentford over Ajax are on the bench. City still look short of attacking options.

Brentford:- Lee; Logan, Legge, Osborne, Woodman; Saunders, Douglas, Reeves, McGinn; Donaldson, Alexander

Subs:- Moore, Eger, O'Connor, Weston, Forrester

Exeter City:- Krysiak; Tully, Archibald-Henville, Duffy, Golbourne; Sercombe, Dunne, Noble, Shephard; Logan, Bignall

Subs:- Pidgely, Jones, Coles, Bauza, Nichols


Good Luck.


I eventually previewed four of today's matches overnight and sent out three solid selections. Two have shortened some 17 "clicks" , the third has actually frifted by three as I type, so overall very much on the right side of the early exchanges. I am also following three matches in "running" tonight and writing some pre match notes for these at the moment. It is such a strong betting day that I will post something on here a little nearer kick off, but am unsure exactly what at present. Please check back if you have time/inclination.

Good Luck.

Monday, August 15, 2011

MONDAY .......

Looking back at the three matches I previewed below, the "over" was landed well inside the hour ( 41 attempts on goal !) and Bournemouth beat Wednesday 2-0, but Aldershot lost 1-0 at home to Northampton.

The Shots were caught cold and a goal down inside 50 seconds, they struggled through the first half, but came on strong after the break and had a lot of chances to at least draw level and if that goal had come, I feel they could have gone on to win. They hit the woodwork twice, had any number of attempts blocked, were denied twice by fine saves and had a big shout for a penalty waved away. The Cobblers hardly had an attempt worthy of the name in the last hour and Dean Holdsworth's side will consider themselves hard done by.

An amazing midweek football programme ahead of us, with a full round of english lower league games and some attractive looking Champions and Europa League games. I have already started writing previews of five, maybe six matches for tomorrow alone and have two strong bets lined up, I may post one of these online tomorrow, but if not, please check back towards the end of the week when I am sure to have something of interest.

Good Luck.

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Written Saturday 09.15 .....

I have two further selections for today both in League 2, the first will not surprise anyone too much and is for Aldershot Town who host Northampton Town. We have discussed the Shots several times recently and they did us a very big favour in winning at Bradford last weekend ( preview below), three points were great, but the performance was fantastic and very encouraging for boss Dean Holdsworth and his team, fitting reward for all the hard work put in over the summer.

They were very disappointed that their cup tie with West Ham was called off in midweek, but it has given them extended recovery time and also enabled them to get Luke Guttridge fit for today, he is arguably their most important player and will be very motivated facing his former club. Guttridge is very busy in midfield and doesn't give opponents a moments peace, if there was to be any complaints about the win at Bradford it was as the second half wore on, City got too much time on the ball in the middle of the park, that would not have happened if he had played. That is a fully fit squad for Holdsworth and with another fruitful weeks training under their belts, I have to take them at nice looking odds.

The visitors opened with a 0-0 draw at home to a much changed and weakened Accrington Stanley team last week, but put that behind them with a cup win at Ipswich Town on Tuesday evening. It was a second string home side, but even so was a fine win for the Cobblers who are turning into cup specialists, however, it might not be so easy for them to again raise their game today and they might have to do so without two key players in Akinfenwa and Johnson who both face late tests. This is not cut and dried, the visitors are an improving team, but they have struggled for goals and wins in these bread and butter league games and given the edge in fitness I believe Aldershot have and the extra recovery time, which is probably more use now than in two months time when everyone is on a similar level fitness wise, I have to stick with the Shots at these quotes. Aldershot -0.25 2.09 + .

Good Luck.

Let's start with Bradford City - Aldershot Town, which will not surprise too many of you. I wrote this about Shots in pre season ....
It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.

This was very clear at the weekend when they travelled to Farnborough Town, one of the better BSS teams last season who narrowly missed out on promotion and could easily have swapped places with Tamworth. Shots got better and better as the game progressed and ran out 4-0 winners, with newcomers Michael Rankine and especially Bradley Bubb who is lightning quick and scored 40 goals in 88 starts in the BSS impressing. The difference between how these two clubs have started their preseason is further highlighted by the fact that one of the Tamworth players missed the first week of training as he was still on holiday ! Holdsworth would never have stood for that. hard to see anything other than another away win, with Shots fitness advantage surely telling after the break if not before.

Holdsworth has got his team primed for the campaign , they completed a very productive pre season and travel north in great heart. He added two players to the squad last week with the addition of Anthony Pulis and George Montgomery, both of whom will help bring along the youngsters/ less experienced players at the club. Montgomery was part of the Dagenham & Redbridge promotion winning side of two seasons ago and his silky left foot will be a welcome addition.

City are a sleeping giant at this level, but are set to slumber a little longer, with Peter Jackson having a very big job to turn them around. He has started the process, by bringing whole host of new players in, but almost none have experience of this division, this is a work in progress and City a team in transition. Aldershot +0.25 1.90 is my pick.


Written Friday 09.58 ....

Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool played in the Carling Cup last night, with the home side going through the tie on penlaties following extra time.

The Owls will be making a long trip to the South Coast today, to play a League 1 fixture with Bournemouth tomorrow, a match that will kick off just about 40 hours after they finished work yesterday. That is far from ideal, but only Gary Madine started last night and also in the opening league game with Rochdale, having said that, twelve players were involved in both squads to one degree or another and would have warmed up, sat on the bench, been at least mentally involved and will now face five hours on a bus today, with greatly reduced preparation time.

Do not underestimate this time spent on the motorway, Bournemouth made the short journey to London last Friday and ended up stuck in traffic for eight hours, their preparation was so disrupted that they tried to get their match with Charlton delayed. This was refused and they were never in the game, this is a result you can dismiss from your calculations and the Cherries showed much more what they are capable of in a 5-0 rout of Dagenham in midweek, back on home soil where they are far more comfortable and where they collected 62% of all their points last season, the third best record in the division.

The Cherries had a decent pre season, beating Crystal Palace and Cardiff here and might once again have been underestimated by people, the club have to continually sell players to stay afloat, but also continue to unearth some gems, they are short of striking options, but Lyle Taylor snatched from non league football last season scored six in pre season and another two against the Daggers and I have just seen that Ryan Doble, another young striker signed a short term loan from Southampton yesterday, both will be looking to get involved on saturday.

I cannot quite make Bournemouth an official bet, but given the two extra days rest and lack of travel, plus my huge doubts about Owls boss Gary Megson, which are well documented, I think the home side look solid with the level ball/ draw no bet option at or close to 1.80.

Good Luck.

Written Friday 16.21 ......

The schedulers have had fun in League 2 with Bristol Rovers making their first home start of the new campaign under new boss Paul Buckle against his former club Torquay United in a West Country derby !

Buckle who I know quite well from his time at Brentford is very driven to succeed at Rovers, they are a much bigger club and if he could get them back up at the first time of asking, it would look very good on his c.v. He has had a very busy summer signing 14 players , including a couple from his former club and both they, he and the one's left behind will all be out to impress. Think there will be plenty of goals in this, visiting boss Martin Ling has seen his team concede six in two starts and it really could have been more, Burton had a host of chances last week and Southampton stopped at four in midweek. Rovers also have concerns at the back, but looked full of goals at Wimbledon last week. I will be amazed if both do not score ( so, 0-0 it is then !), but prefer the "over" option. 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 09, 2011


Message to subscribers, please check your inbox tonight, as soon as the Carling Cup games are over I will send my Wednesday notes. These include two double stake ( maximum bets) at odds of circa 2.40 and 2.75, both of which I am supremely confident about, if there was such a thing as treble stake bets then these would qualify, there are also two other solid selections.

contact :


Tonight's Carling Cup fixtures between West Ham United- Aldershot Town and Charlton Athletic- Reading have been postponed because of the London riots and the England- Netherlands friendly planned for tomorrow night is likely to follow suit.

Not sure why the Crystal Palace- Crawley Town match has yet to be postponed, as Selhurst Park is very close to some of the worst scenes of rioting. Pretty sure that will also be called off shortly.

Good Luck.


These two previews below were included in my Monday notes, which were written and distributed at 17.30 on Sunday evening, both are now trading significantly shorter.

The Carling Cup takes centre stage tomorrow and first up are two teams we discussed at the weekend, Hereford United and, you guessed it...... Brentford !

United lost 1-0 to Southend United and were a little fortunate not to have lost by a bigger margin and as we discussed, they are a short of numbers and at this stage of the campaign, when games take so much out of players, are far less suited to a match three days later than Brentford.

The Bees played some really nice football against Yeovil Town and will doubtless rotate a little, but have a true squad of at least 22 players and can switch 5-6 ( possibly more) without any loss of ability and those coming in will be very hungry to impress the coaching staff. I also feel that Uwe Rosler will want to keep the momentum up, he has yet to taste defeat as manager of the Bees and will also want to progress in a competition which could really raise his personal profile and he is an ambitious figure.

Odds are really good IMO and unlikely to last, I make them at least -0.25 goal shorter. It is not totally impossible that these two could be three divisions apart next season and even as it stands , ability wise Brentford are at least one and a half divisions better at present.

1.5 units Brentford -0.25 2.16 asian line. I also saw a juicy looking 4.75 for the Bees -1 goal ( traditional handicap) with Bet 365 if you are so inclined, but the asian bet for me.

Next up is the Yorkshire derby between Leeds United and Bradford City. The visitors and their long suffering supporters will be up for this, there are not going to be many glory games for them this season, but they were comprehensively outplayed by Aldershot Town at the weeekend on home soil and will be facing a dangerous, wounded opponent.

United were humiliated by their performance at Southampton on saturday evening and were read the riot act by Simon Grayson afterwards and with this match televised, the last thing they need is another loss on national television. Last season United lost their opener, which was also the late televised fixture, but bounced back in midweek and put four unanswered goals past a fourth tier opponent and will be looking for a similar response on Tuesday.

Hosts are formidable at Elland Road and if they can find a little of the form that saw them put three past Newcastle United just ten days ago, they should win with ease.

In a strange way it is a big game for United, as failure to win is going to heap pressure on them, win and they can relax a little, put last week down to a blip and move on. Grayson is bound to change things round a little, but this is a free scoring team who create chances aplenty, especially on home soil and I take them to beat a visitor very much in a transitional stage.

1.25 units Leeds United -1 ball 2.04 asian line.

Good Luck.


Sunday, August 07, 2011

SUNDAY .....

The mighty Bees started with a 2-0 win over Yeovil Town and put in a very pleasing performance, when it all clicks for them this season they are going to administer a few thumpings and these are exciting times for Brentford supporters. Potential big players in League 1 Charlton and both Sheffield clubs also opened up with comfortable wins and this division looks set to be a corker ! May the best team win, as long as they reside in TW8 !

Early season big game next weekend when the Bees travel to face Sheffield United at Bramall Lane and I am already looking forward to it !

The following formed part of my notes for today ......

In the SPL Glasgow Celtic travel north to face Aberdeen who are missing key players and made a sluggish start to the new season. The visitors have had great success here in recent times, in a fixture which almost always produces goals. Nine of the last ten starts at Pittodrie have gone "over" with eight producing four or more. It doesn't really matter how the home side approach the game, they have tried keeping it tight, packing the midfield and also going toe to toe, but once the first goal goes in, it always develops into a shoot out, invaribly won by the Hoops.

Home fans are very pessimistic about this one, many are staying away in a sulk about the clubs lack of investment, they are short of maybe three starting players and that is when everyone is available and they are without the suspended Ryan Jack today and at least a couple of Clark, Mawene and Fyvie will either miss out or play at less than 100%. It is a sign of how bad things are at Aberdeen that they are desperate to get them on the pitch, despite missing almost all training this week, the 18 yo Fyvie was sat on the sidelines on Friday, yet coach Craig Brown still wants to try and get the youngster involved. This all smacks of desperation and the Dons look fearful of another big defeat. I think Celtic will win with a degree of comfort, but they are a little skinny on the handicap line, there is always a chance that Aberdeen might suddenly be inspired by the television cameras and a match with one of the Old Firm ,come to life and find a goal or even two, which would probably still not be enough as I can see the pace of the Celtic forwards running riot. However, that is just enough to make me lean towards the "over" 3 goal line, a bet that would have lost once and won eight times in the last ten meeting at this stadium. "Over" 3 goals 2.21 asian line.

I am very happy with and excited by our top ten bet on Zach Johnson in the WGC Bridgestone event ( see below). He shot a tied low round of the day 64 yesterday and is in a 9th place overnight, but just four strokes off the lead, Luke Donald also had a great day and was one of the other two to post a 64, which took him to within three of the lead and a victory for him would be huge for our money list bet. Donald is 10.0 to win and Johnson a massive 48.0, amongst the leading contenders these have been the two best Round 4 players on tour this year. With the englishman ranked 3rd with a 69.0 average and Johnson inside the top ten with 69.46. For either to win they would need to go low again, but both know where the winner's circle is nowadays and it would not surprise me if one or both made a big charge this afternoon. We already have a heavy involvement with ZJ, but if you are not on, or wanted to "waste" a few euros at big outright odds, I would look at these two.

Good Luck.

Written Thursday August 4
The USPGA Tour sees the return of Tiger Woods at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational today, it is still odd to see 20-1 + quotes for Woods, especially at a tournament he has dominated in the past, he claims to be in good shape, but we have to see that on a golf course before getting involved. Zach Johnson is probably a little short off the tee to win this week, but should put in another solid finish. Our man, who you all know I believe is a winner in waiting , has been playing solidly for three months with nine solid tournaments is a row, all were Top 30 finishes ( OK one was 32nd), with four top six placings and a sluggish opening round has cost him badly in four starts. He was 33rd here last year, but finished inside the top twenty in the three previous years ( 15-16-11) which is a very solid record on a course which is not ideal. Having said that, neither was the Open Championship and Johnson was 16th there, with no real history in the event. This is a short field event, with half the number of runners we normally see on tour and despite his shortcomings distance wise off the tee, ZJ is probably playing too well to be kept out of the top 20 , therefore it is impossible for me to let the 5.0 + for a top ten finish pass and I have to take a little, he is 5.50 with Pady Power and Bet 365 and over 5 should be available on the exchanges later in the morning.

Saturday, August 06, 2011


Here are my notes prepared with love and attention and sent out this morning, all four selections won, all with a degree of comfort.

Brentford 2-0, Southend 1-0, Aldershot 2-1 and the Reading game finished 2-2. All of you who took part in the seven day trial, were well aware of my thoughts about Brentford and Aldershot several weeks ago and I hope that some of you took advantage.

Saturday August 6th .... notes sent at 09.18 this morning ...

We already have the Brentford selection ( reproduced at the foot of the email) and I have three other matches to discuss.

In the Championship, two of the potential big players Reading and Millwall ,meet at the Madejski Stadium , I saw both of these play a couple of times last season, including the reverse fixture which was the most open 0-0 draw I have ever seen. It is no exaggeration to say that 4-4 would have been a truer reflection of the game and the two teams went end to end and toe to toe for 90 minutes, both keepers were in inspired form and I lost count of the number of times they saved "one on one's". We made use of this with an "over" bet in the return game, which ended 2-1 to the Royals, all those goals came well inside the first hour and this was another match which could have produced far more.

Hosts were very unlucky not to have made it to the promised land of the EPL and whilst they may suffer something of a hangover from that, early signs , at least in pre season, is that they have already put that behind them. They managed to make the signing of Mikele Leigertwood permanent, what was absolutely vital, as they are a much better team when he plays, MUCH better, he picked up a knock in the last pre season game, but I saw him at the training ground yesterday and am pretty sure he will play. Shane Long is still at the club, at least for for the time being. Millwall finally sold Steve Morison, but have some promising young strikers and also signed the experienced Darius Henderson to replace him, Henderson is a former Royal and always plays well against them, scoring twice for Sheffield United last season against his first league club.With Reading having lost commanding central defender Matt Mills and experienced replacement Ivar Ingimarsson, they might struggle to contain the big front man and this is a match which looks likely to produce goal scoring chances aplenty once again. "

Over" 2.5 goals 2.04 + asian line.

Other two games are in Division 2. Let's start with Bradford City - Aldershot Town, which will not surprise too many of you. I wrote this about Shots in pre season ....

It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.
This was very clear at the weekend when they travelled to Farnborough Town, one of the better BSS teams last season who narrowly missed out on promotion and could easily have swapped places with Tamworth. Shots got better and better as the game progressed and ran out 4-0 winners, with newcomers Michael Rankine and especially Bradley Bubb who is lightning quick and scored 40 goals in 88 starts in the BSS impressing. The difference between how these two clubs have started their preseason is further highlighted by the fact that one of the Tamworth players missed the first week of training as he was still on holiday ! Holdsworth would never have stood for that. hard to see anything other than another away win, with Shots fitness advantage surely telling after the break if not before.

Holdsworth has got his team primed for the campaign , they completed a very productive pre season and travel north in great heart. He added two players to the squad last week with the addition of Anthony Pulis and George Montgomery, both of whom will help bring along the youngsters/ less experienced players at the club. Montgomery was part of the Dagenham & Redbridge promotion winning side of two seasons ago and his silky left foot will be a welcome addition.

City are a sleeping giant at this level, but are set to slumber a little longer, with Peter Jackson having a very big job to turn them around. He has started the process, by bringing whole host of new players in, but almost none have experience of this division, this is a work in progress and City a team in transition. Aldershot +0.25 1.90 is my pick.

Going to finish with some brief notes about Southend United- Hereford United. Paul Sturrock inherited a shocking position at Roots Hall last season, a financial mess and no players ! He signed 17 players inside 24 hours as the season started and his team progressed and evolved through the year, thumped a few good teams, finished mid table and even looked like they might challenge for the playoffs at one stage. There is a terrific team spirit here and Sturrock has enjoyed a far less frantic build up to this season, he has kept Barry Corr with 18 goals in 32 games and added the prolific Neil Harris from Millwall , Jemal Johnson and also Liam Dickinson who scored plenty at this level for Stockport County, before never quite making it at the higher level, he is very pacey and that can serve you well at this level. They are potentially a team with a lot of goals in them, they have yet to click goals wise in pre season, but did play some quality sides and defensively looked really solid, only conceding one in two games against big Championship player Ipswich Town and EPL side Norwich.

Hereford look set to struggle this year, they are going to have to get involved in the loan market, which is their modus operandi and having ended last season poorly, jwith ust two wins in 13 and lacking quality, I have to look to oppose them. They were very good on the road last season, but lost 4-0 here and 3-1 to United in the reverse fixture and it is hard to argue that Southend are now stronger and the Bulls weaker.

Southend -0.5 1.83 + ... there is a little 1.91 in places.

Good Luck.

Written August 3
Going to start my look at the weekend matches by posting a selection for the Brentford- Yeovil Town game. Obviously I have well and truly shown my hand here and we have already taken the up to 34.0 to win Division 1 about the Bees ( now a top 17.0) and especially the 9.0 for promotion ( now circa 5.0), so you know which way I am going with this, but I don't expect this quote to be available come the weekend and suggest we get on now.

Let's start with the visitors, they have a small squad and I know that boss Terry Skiverton is anxious to add 2-3 more names as soon as possible. Town have had a reasonable pre season, but have been over run a little in midfield at times and have a weakness in central defence. I saw the match at Griffin Park between these two in the second half of last season, Town won 2-1, but the Glovers were fortunate to leave London without being arrested for daylight robbery, somehow contriving a way ( two goals on two breakaways) to win a match the Bees dominated.
You all know how I feel about Brentford this season and there is no point in my repeating everything again, but Uwe Rosler has assembled/inherited a very strong squad and the tactically aware German can ( potentially) change 6-7 players without really weakening the starting eleven.

Off the pitch the club is now run in an ultra professional manner, more along the lines of a top Championship club, with a lot of investment in getting things right both on and off the pitch. A large crowd ( by normal standards) is expected on saturday and is likely to be boosted by a number of Manchester City supporters. Rosler was a hero in his time with City and with them in town for the Charity Shield game with United, he has called for those fans in the capital for the weekend to come along. The Bees have sold their most season tickets in many years and drawn record crowds to G.P for pre season games, something big is happening in TW8 and Rosler, his backroom staff, team and even supporters are all fully focused on getting the juggernaut up and running.

They have a real touch of class in midfield and should again dominate Yeovil in the centre of the park, up front established strikers MacDonald and Alexander have been scoring for fun in pre season, but only one will start with Clayton Donaldson ( 28 goals for Crewe last season) booked for one of the starting places and if that will not keep the front men on their toes, another quality striker is set to join shortly. The defence has looked roack solid and only conceded one goal from open play and kept clean sheets against EPL side Stoke city ( full strength) and Championship playoff hopefuls Watford.

They ended pre season at an inform and fit Alderhot Town last week and dominated early proceedings, they then fell behind for the first time under Rosler and that is what I wanted to see,how they would react after such a magic start to the season where everything has gone perfectly, there was no panic and to be honest the Bees ran out very easy winners, the 2-1 scoreline doesn't tell the full story, it was very impressive. No weaknesses for the hosts and the only negative is that Town have been a bit of a bogey team for the Bees in recent seasons, but hey, this is a very different Brentford team.

1.5 units Brentford -0.5 1.89..... aargh !! This has shortened to 1.83 as I type, so will have to downscale this slightly 1.25 units .... very annoying !.

Friday, August 05, 2011


Into August and long after my readers had taken the cream of the odds, the public gamble starts, with the Racing Post tipping them at 20-1, when only 16-1 was really available on August 3rd.

Win or lose, the early odds for Brentford were plainly wrong and held great value and that, as we all know is the name of the game.

I did write a few further notes about the Bees in August, but I want to keep some of those to readers of my daily notes for the time being. However, as an update, 20 yo attacking midfielder Harry Forrester, who has been on trial at Ajax recently and was offered a contract by the Amsterdam giants, turned them down and signed for the Bees ! I am sure there were many other considerations, but for a player to opt for the Bees over mighty Ajax is a sure sign of how far Brentford have come and are going. If not this season, then in the near future.

I have only put up three outright/long term "official" bets in 2011, Uruguay to win the Copa America @ 9.0 and suggested a top up @ 13.5. Brentford and another, albeit much smaller stakes, at a very nice 40-1 in the Championship yesterday.

July was one of my best ever months and I know that, if there is any justice in this world, this is going to be a record breaking season, as I have worked like a dog over the last two months preparing for today and the coming months !

Good Luck.


Written July 19th :Btw, Brentford our long term selection for Division 1 scored ten goals in their first pres season friendly at the weekend, opposition was weak of course, but the two teams had drawn 0-0 in this traditional warm up game last season and the Bees used two teams of eleven, playing 45 minutes each and both won 5-0, so a LOT of positives to take from the match.

Written July 20th :Brentford also played last night and won 6-1, it was another non league opponent, but the Bees rested their top goalscorer and several others, actually, the two strikers who scored seven between them at the weekend didn't play, so another impressive display, 16 goals in two games, albeit against low level opposition is about as good as it gets and these are not low, low level clubs, both play in what is effectively the sixth tier of english football. They are both regular pre season opponents for the Bees and games are traditionally close, these kind of routs have never happened before........... I hope you have all taken at least a little of the big outright and promotion odds.

July 22nd :Brentford get their first real test of pre season tonight when the take on Stoke City at Griffin Park, this will home boss Uwe Rosler's first home game and of course, with EPL visitors in town, the Bees will do them the courtesy of putting out a very strong team. The visitors also have a match at Aldershot tomorrow so will doubtless be giving everyone a run out, including new signing Jonathan Woodgate, over the two matches. No asian line yet, but with Stoke playing two games and the Bees on fire and eager to please their new boss and he the fans, there is some value in the quotes of 5.0 for Brentford to win Bet 365 and/ or the handicap odds when available.

July 23rd :However, Brentford scored a fully deserved 1-0 win over EPL side Stoke City . The visitors fielded their strongest possible side with nine starters and only made three substitutions the whole game, despite which they were second best all match to the Bees who really put in a very impressive performance. Hopefully some of you took a little of the 5.0 for last night and if anyone is not on the outright bet(s), then it really is last chance to do so, these are going to collapse this week.

July 27th :Brentford host Watford tonight and this will be another solid test for the Bees against something of a local rival. It is hard to overestimate the feeling of well, guess it is pure excitement at Griffin Park at present, the match with Stoke attracted the biggest pre season crowd for over 20 years and the team passed a full strength EPL side off the pitch, sales in the club "superstore" which is basically a largish shop were through the roof, with supporters happy to snatch up all the new merchandise available. Brentford are looking to keep all this momentum and good will going, but it how they handle the first set back which will tell us so much more about them. No asian lines yet, but 2.375 in a place ( William Hill) is borderline acceptable about the Bees, Watford have alreday lost in pre season to Barnet and AFC Wimbledon despite fielding strong teams against each, the Hornets have a lot of pace and will be a real test for Brentford, but it is hard to oppose the Bees at present, especially if there are some decent -0.25 ball quotes around later.

Good Luck.


Written July 11th : I will take this opportunity to re-update the situation at Brentford, all of my original comments about the Bees are reproduced at the foot of the page. Since writing the last of those, Uwe Rosler has supplemented his squad further with two more fantastic looking signings, adding Clayton Donaldson and Niall McGinn to a group of players that compares favourably with any at this level. Donaldson was the top scorer in League 2 last season, scoring 28 goals for Crewe Alexandra, Alex paid a six figure fee for him three years ago and after impressing everyone last season, that value was unlikely to have gone down, but he refused to sign a new contract and he has chosen Brentford over a host of clubs looking to sign the proven lower level goalscorer. McGinn has signed on a season long loan from Celtic, the 23 yo winger is a full Northern Ireland international and won two young POTY awards with Derry in the IPL, it is doubtful the talented winger would have been allowed to move away from Celtic Park, but he was the player who also had "suspicious packages" sent to him along with Hoops boss Neil Lennon and that, quite understandably, affected his game in the second half of last season. A year South of the Border will suit him perfectly and this is another real coup for the Bees.

Rosler has also found his first team coach in Peter Farrell, who has worked for a number of years with the youth/reserve team squads at Bolton Wanderers where he helped the development of many now established EPL players. There have been a number of other important and very promising appointments made, including a well thought of youth team manager and a General Manager, who has worked at much bigger clubs in the past. Gunnar Halle attended the afternoon coaching session in Lillestrom on Sunday, not sure if this means anything or if he just popped into say hello. But I do know the Bees have been working incredibly hard in early pre season and all players returned from the off season in good shape.

This is probably the most optimistic Brentford fans have felt going into a new season in at least two decades . The 33-1 quote to win the division has gone, but 25-1 is still offered in a place or two and the 8-1 for promotion, which I am very keen on, remains, but for how long ? Once the word gets out and people fully analyse the business down at Griffin Park, I am sure that these quotes will drop considerably.

Good Luck.


(Written 24/06)

Brentford and new coach Uwe Rosler made their first signing of the off season yesterday, but I am going to hold off on my update a little longer, as I understand there will be some more signings shortly and the German boss has still to formally finalise his backroom team. All I will say is that it is clear that Rosler has done his homework already, as the signing Shaleum Logan, who was a product of the Manchester City youth academy, plays in what has long been a problem position for the Bees and it bodes well for the future.

( Written 30/06)
Just a brief update. Rosler has added two more players to his squad, with the addition of experienced german central defender Marcel Eger from St Pauli and the very talented Jonathan Douglas from Swindon. Eger is a very big unit who has clearly been brought in to marshall the defence, Douglas is very talented and was chased by a host of clubs, it says much about the ambition at the club that he choose the Bees. He has three very successful years at Leeds before joining Swindon, where he was POTY in the team that almost made it to the Championship two years ago. He would still have been at United but player and club fell out over money, quite how he has agreed terms with Brentford is a mystery, but this is a terrific signing.

As I indicated in my original post, Brentford are also looking to set up a semi formal loan arrangement with City, this makes a lot of sense as City have srapped their reserve team to focus on the Nextgen series, so many of their youngsters will have limited opportunities of competitive football. Early signs under Rosler look very good, the team have started pre season now and are looking to get fitness levels sky high, the squad are shortly moving to a summer training camp in Norway where Rosler knows the facilities well.... looking good atm.

Good Luck.


I have been basically begging anyone reading my daily notes to back Brentford in League 1 right through pre season. My first notes were written on June 10th, that is eight long weeks ago, when I wrote ......

LEAGUE 1 ( written 10/06)

I did not plan to send another email today, but have been thinking about this all morning and I think events over the weekend/ next week will cause these odds to drop and strongly feel we should get on now.

Most of you know that I am a lifelong Brentford supporter, but I do not often bet on their games and am just as likely to oppose them as back them, just wanted to make that clear.

The Bees are currently in a strange position, in a sort of joint ownership between the supporters and Matthew Benham, with MB set to take over sole ownership after a five year term, however, forget about that, Benham is the man making the decisions and funding the club. He has his own men on the board and in executive positions and has invested heavily in the club both on and off the pitch . Brentford have very ambitious Academy plans and the club are being run in an ultra professional manner, looking to secure a long term future at Championship level and maybe beyond.

For those that do not know, Benham is the owner of Smartodds and is probably the biggest european gambler in asian markets, betting in astronomical sums, I also believe he might be a shareholder at Samvo, but that is just speculation on my part, he might not be wealthy in the Roman Abramovich sense, but in non EPL terms is up there in the rich list and already has some £5-10m of investment of some kind in the club, he is also said to be a long time ( 20 years +) supporter of the Bees. It is also worthy of note that he or his company do not bet on any Brentford matches.

Anyway, since getting involved the playing budget has increased some three fold, Brentford have got promotion from League 2, finished 9th at the higher level in 2010 and 11th this season, it is a sign of how far they have come in a couple of seasons that many supporters and we are certainly not used to success, were disappointed by a midtable finish and Wembley appearance in the JPT.

Benham and his team have taken a couple of months to find a new coach and Uwe Rosler will be announced today, the 42 year old german spent four seasons at Manchester city where he enjoyed cult status and has coached three teams in Norway. He is another wildly ambitious individual and is looking to make his mark in England, he will bring his own team with him including it is said Gunnar Halle. The pair know the english game well and are said to have really impressed at interview, giving detailed analysis of where the team were weak and their proposals to upgrade the squad, these were said to be very specific and not general thoughts. I also believe they fit the criteria to be able to make use of the data that Smartodds will surely make available.

Rosler is still loved at Manchester City and whilst the ownership there has changed, he still regularly attends games and functions, keeps a home in the area and has strong contacts at the club, there is a good chance that a few fringe players will be loaned to the London club. Brentford have a good reputation for looking after youngsters and have enjoyed similar relationships with other clubs, especially Leicester and Ipswich in recent seasons, so this would make a lot of sense and be beneficial to both.

Brentford do not need to improve a lot to get involved in the promotion race and whilst there are a lot of big name clubs in the division this year, including both Sheffield teams, there is no way that the Bees should be as high as 33-1 to win this, they have far more potential and ambition than half a dozen teams shorter in the betting and I simply do not see them outside the top eight. Big value on the outright and promotion odds and once plans have been laid out and culling and addition of players begins, I expect these to drop considerably.

1 unit Brentford to win 26.0 + ... up to 34.0 available.

2 units Brentford to gain promotion 9.0

That was two months ago and I will give a timeline of my related updated notes since then....

Good Luck.


Btw, I LOVE this photograph of Rosler and Peter Gilham ( Mr Brentford) or the "Glums" as they look here. It is funny because in anything Bees related Gilham is about as upbeat as it is possible to be.......... this was probably the first time the pair had met ..... take my word, it is FUNNY !!


Football is a very fickle game and things can change in the blink of an eye. Take Bolton Wanderers, pre season had gone very well, boss Owen Coyle had got several summer targets into the club and managed to fend off the bigger clubs who were targeting Gary Cahill.

Then, in a minor friendly at Newport County last weekend, midfield livewire Lee Chung-yong suffered what is basically a season ending broken leg and five days later one of those new singings, defender Tyrone Mears did likewise in a training incident. Liverpool have now also apparently upped the ante in their hunt for Cahill and suddenly things look very different at the Reebok Stadium.

I am sure that Coyle is not panicking just yet, but am equally sure that despite his team playing their final warm up game and first home start of pre season tonight, when La Liga side Levante come to the North West, that he will be urging caution and mindful that as we all know, these things come in three's !!

Good Luck.

Wednesday, August 03, 2011


Sunderland were my "strong" 1.5 point selection yesterday, given at top quote, they were well backed and won comfortably 3-1, landing my first red type bet of the new month.

I sent about a third of you in my data base those notes, which also included some spot on news about a couple of other friendly games and a very strong bet for today.

This morning I shared my daily notes with another third of my contacts and they got a friendly selection for tonight, some Champions League notes and my first bet for the weekend.

Tomorrow, I plan to cover a couple of Europa League matches, probably another weekend selection and a 40-1 outright bet for the new season that is wildly overpriced IMO. With regard to the blog, it is very difficult to openly post something at this stage of the season, as the teams I am backing are ones I will be following through the opening weeks of the campaign and I would be foolish to show my hand on here. Having said that, I think I can publish a couple of the lower profile previews and will probably post one or two over the weekend, so please check back then.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 02, 2011


Quite an odd Tuesday, which is usually the busiest day of the midweek betting wise, but that is not really the case today. However, I have found one strong ( 1.5 unit) selection for today, which has already fallen 20 "clicks" and put up a double stake selection at odds against for tomorrow, where we also have the best of the early exchanges, so there is little to complain about.

Actually, I also passed on some early team news from a couple of low level friendlies, but all in all it remains a case of the quiet before the storm, with the english domestic campaign set to resume on Friday evening. I hope that you have all been doing plenty of homework and are well prepared, I have watched seven pre season matches, along with eight training sessions and have worked solidly for 5-6 weeks just to get ready for this. I cannot remember being this excited about a new season for many years and like a kid at Christmas, I would be happy to fast forward to saturday morning.

The weather is set to break before the weekend, but some teams, especially in the London area will have completed the bulk of their training this week in gruelling conditions. It is 30 degrees plus today and also very humid and similar is forecast for tomorrow. As always, we will see some extremely tired legs on opening day.

Good Luck.