Sunday, April 29, 2012

SUNDAY .....

LA LIGA : REAL BETIS- ATLETICO MADRID .... sent and writtenThursday

OK, we have already given some background to this in the Europa League preview above and there is huge incentive for Atletico to win this game. Hosts "secured" their safety ahead of the game at Valencia last week, when they performed badly and looked like they were already mentally lying on a beach somewhere . Actually they are "only" eleven points ahead of the drop zone with four rounds to play, so mathematically, need something , but the chances are that before this game kicks off, results elsewhere will have secured their safety and it is going to come anyway, this week or next. Hosts will be without at least  three key players today and have a much bigger game in midweek with the Sevilla derby match just three days later. The players have had other duties to perform this week, mixing with the fans at the April Fair in Seville, which is a huge event and the fans would doubtless have made it clear, where they want the result and it is in the most competitive of derby games. This has been an "easy" week for them, two days off and then after light training, a couple of days at the fair, for them, the real business will start monday morning IMO. It is very hard to see Real being fully committed to this sunday night game and I have to make Atletico a very solid bet. They have a fine record here winning on their last four visits and keeping cleansheets in three.This is all about motivation, which the visitors have in spades and very solid form since Diego Simeone took charge. 1.75 units Atletico -0.5 ball 2.30 +, there is some 2.35 around.
Good Luck.

BETIS :Fabricio, Casto, Pozuelo, Isidoro, Amaya, Matilla, Pereira, Beñat, Paulao, Salva Sevilla, Santa Cruz, Chica, Iriney, Montero, Cañas, Nelson, Nacho and Rubén Castro. 

ATLETICO : 13. Courtois,25. Sergio Asenjo,2. Godín,6. Filipe Luis,18. Álvaro Domínguez,23. Miranda,
4. Mario Suárez,5. Tiago,8. Salvio,11. Arda Turan,14. Gabi,19. Koke,20. Juanfran,22. Diego,49. Oliver,
7. Adrián,9. Falcao and 41. Pedro Martín

Saturday, April 28, 2012


The "over" was comfortably landed inside 57 minutes in the Nantes-Amiens game and I was three from four with my Ligue 2 bets yesterday ( odds 2.11, 1.95 and 2.16).

Today, I have put up a "maximum " double stake selection, just my second of 2012, at a very nice 2.20 and other bets at odds of 2.25, 1.90, 24.0 and 88.0 !  Top quotes on the "big" bet have gone and you could "trade out" this morning for a profit, if that was the way you wanted to go, obviously I am not posting that on here and with liquidity limited now on some of the other selections today, I am going to also keep them just for subscribers, in case any are still trying to get on. So nothing further on the blog today.

I will definitely post a preview or two on here tomorrow, so please check back, if you want to receive all my news, everyday and in full, email me at and I will send details.

Good Luck.

Friday, April 27, 2012



Lots to discuss today and I have previewed four matches, I will probably have the same number of games to look at tomorrow, in addition to the "double stake" bet we already have and that is currently trading some 22 clicks less on asian markets. This is only the second maximum stake bet of 2012, the first was backed in from circa 2.30 to sub 1.70 off level ball and could have been traded out for a huge % profit PRE kick off. That selection won comfortably by a two goal margin.
I am keen on all four main selections today, one is a just a shade under evens, the others are 2.07 + and there is also a solid "suggestion" at odds of 5.50.

All previews written at 09.00 UK time, all odds freely available on asian markets.

League table since Christmas ( 15 rounds)

BASTIA ...................... 35 pts
MONACO .................. 33
SEDAN....................... 29
ARLES ....................... 27
TROYES .................... 25
LE MANS.................... 24
ISTRES....................... 24
TOURS........................ 23
REIMS........................  21
NANTES ...................  20
LENS .........................  19
LAVAL .......................  16
CLERMONT..............  16
ANGERS....................  15
GUINGAMP................  14
 METZ .........................  13
LE HAVRE.................  10
AMIENS ....................  10
BOULOGNE .............  10


No surprises here, the goals came late against Istres last week, but they came and that makes five from six "overs" for the doomed visitors and their last twelve have all produced at least two goals and they have scored in their last nine road starts, also in six of their seven away games against teams currently in the top eight. You all know the oft chanted mantra, they have goals in them, almost always score , but are incapable of keeping a clean sheet. The last loss sealed their fate, but I do not think it will change their approach, it is certainly unlikely to make them defend any better.

Nantes know only a win will aid their slim promotion hopes and have been prolific scorers on home soil with 28 goals, only the top two have managed more and they also conceded three here to Boulogne recently, another team who look likely to be plying their trade in National next season. We have had incredible success with Amiens games in 2012 ( see previous posts below) and there is no need to change our policy, with no left back for the visitors and odds still very attractive. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line.

Nantes : Riou, Zelazny - Djilobodji, Krychowiak, Martins Pereira, Veigneau, Vivian, Bessat, Ngoyi, Pancrate, Trébel, Veretout, Bangoura, Djordjevic, Le Tallec, Wiltord. 
Amiens : Ruffier, Diop, Mainfroi, Cirilli, Mienniel, Lybohy, Enza Yamissi, Paul, Zobiri, Puyo, Poirier, Kharbouchi, Touzghar, M’Changama, Mohamed.



Clermont : Farnolle, Moulin - Bockhorni, Esor, Jouan, Landre, Saiss, Alessandrini, Bayod, Ekobo, Moreira, Moullec, Namli, Sylla, Dembélé, Morel, Rivière. 
Monaco : Carrasso, Subasic - Appiah, Kagelmacher, Marester, Pinteaux, Tzavellas, Coulibaly, Dingome, Dirar, Giuly, Mendy, Koman, Tziolis, Barazite, Germain, Salli, Touré.



Troyes : Blondel, Thuram - Drouin, Jarjat, Nsakala, Rincon, Sidibé, Enza-Yamissi, Faussurier, Obbadi, Othon, Thiago, Bettiol, Cacérès, Grax, Marcos. 
Boulogne : Gurtner, Bague - Colin, Lecointe, Gace, Oliveira, Bru, Reale, Capoue, Baherlé, Loriot, Allart, Salibur, Rèset, Sakho, Chadili.


We spoke about the party atmosphere at Bastia on Monday, when they all but sealed promotion back to the top flight. Motivation might be a bit of a problem for them in the closing weeks, especially on the road and their coach has said he will rotate his squad over the next few weeks and changes are very likely today, with a quick turnaround following the Monday night fixture and a bit of a celebration. Hosts kept a clean sheet with some defensive.....

Tours : Bertrand, Leroy - Fabre, Tritz, Sartre, Schwechlen, N'Ganga, Moimbé, Cétout, Genevois, Gamiette, Cardy, Lejeune, Gherieni, Biancardini, Blayac, Diego, Ketkeophomphone, Buengo. 
Bastia : Novaes, Baccarelli - Sanaia, Angoula, Marque, Mary, Choplin, Cioni, Khazri, Moizini, Thauvin, Cahuzac, Diallo, Maoulida, El-Azzouzi, Suarez.

Good Luck.

27-Apr-2012L2 (34)Clermont-Monaco
01-May-2012L2 (35)Monaco-Istres
04-May-2012L2 (36)Reims-Monaco
11-May-2012L2 (37)Monaco-Troyes
18-May-2012L2 (38)Boulogne-Monaco

Wednesday, April 25, 2012


Three matches to discuss today ....


We have covered Lecce quite a bit recently and a little like Wigan in the EPL and despite their lowly position, there are few teams playing better than them in Italy. I felt they were very unlucky not to score again and possibly take all three points at Lazio over the weekend, hiting the woodwork and missing an open goal, before conceding late, but then showing huge battling qualities to force an even later equaliser. Teams with less about them and not as confident as the Giallorossi are at the moment, would have folded at that point. Blasi was suspended on Sunday, but will return this afternoon.

Huge week for Lecce, a point today might well be enough for them to pass Genoa, who visit Milan later in the day ( see below) and climb out of the bottom three, for the first time since coach Serse Cosmi was last taller than he was wide ( or at least Matchday 5). On Sunday, they then host Parma ahead of a trip to champions elect Juventus and will therefore ,be very focused on collecing a minimum four points from these next two fixtures. They have lost just once in ten starts (away to Milan) and are unbeaten in eight home games. Napoli have probably not yet given up on a Champions League spot for next season . but it is looking increasingly unlikely and will be even less so, were Lazio to win the morning kick off with Novara, the result of which will be known before this game starts. The strain of a long season and intense competition of a first CL campaign in recent history is catching up on them, they have won just twice in eight, conceding 21 goals in ten starts, including two or more in their last four on the road.

Lecce, who have scored two or more in five of their last ten and it should really have been seven, can make that five in a row, they scored twice in the reverse fixture a 4-2 defeat in Naples and again here last season in a 2-1 win, a repeat of which would do very nicely. The visitors will once again be without Ezequiel Lavezzi and the suspended Goran Pandev , so Edinson Cavani and Eduardo Vargas are the only available first team strikers, youth team player Massimiliano Ammendola has been added to the squad, which is also missing defender Gianluca Grava. It should be Cavani upfront on his own, with Marek Hamsik in support, not much wrong with that pairing of course, but not a lot in reserve, or for Plan B and given their lack of options and we have covered Napoli and playing twice in a week previously, the hosts are probably better suited by the quick turnaround in games. Lecce off level ball @ 2.31 in asia, or +0.25 ball 1.92 are both too big for me, the odds bear no reflection on how these two have played recently, the hosts are 2.50 + to score twice, I have seen 2.60 in a place and that is hugely tempting, given that they have done that in the last two meetings with Napoli and are playing far better now, also that the visitors have conceded that number in their last four road starts. I guess if you forced me to pick, I would opt for the hosts to score twice and take that for 1.25 units.

Napoli squad:De Sanctis, Colombo; Aronica, Britos, Campagnaro, Cannavaro, Fernandez; Dossena, Dzemaili, Gargano, Hamsik, Inler, Maggio, Zuniga; Cavani, Vargas, Ammendola

My best news and biggest bet of the day is for ......

Good Luck.


Monday, April 23, 2012


Saturday was a frustrating day, I made a profit, three of my four red type selections won, but I was reasonably close to landing the big odds multiple bet and my beloved Brenford, blew a huge opportunity to move into the playoff zone. The Bees missed two penalties ( !), both of which hit the woodwork, with the score 0-0 at the time, the home keeper should also have been sent off for the first incident, Stevenage had created nothing in the first hour, but took the lead almost immediately after the Bees missed the second. Salt was rubbed into the wound late in the game, when Sam Saunders who missed the second spot kick and who is the team's dead ball specialist, curled in a free kick from twice the distance in injury time !

Anyway, I had a solid Sunday and that eased the pain a little.


Pleasing day yesterday and the eight events previewed, produced a whole host of big priced winners.

Granada @ 2.03 for strong stakes and the draw in the Fiorentina-Inter game @ 3.30 could hardly have got the day off to a better start.

Next up was the Manchester United- Everton fixture where another "strong" bet @ 2.10 for both teams to score was landed inside 40 minutes and the highlighted big quote for the visitors to score twice @ 6.0 followed early in the second half.

Late results also went our way, when Valencia to score three or more @ 3.25 obliged and on the PGA tour, John Huh landed a full payout @ 6.0 in the market without the top two and/or a tie @ 8.50 in the without Curtis market, a terrific way to end the day.

Huh was never really in danger with this bet, he is just 21 years of age, 22 next month, has only played eleven US tour events , won once and could have added another yesterday. He gave up ten + strokes to the field on Thursday and then got to work, picking up 9 strokes on Curtis and 14 on Every over the next three days, only dropping a stroke at one of his last 54 holes on a tough course, where no one got double digits under par for four rounds. Huh was -12 for his last three and to call this an impressive performance is a bit of an understatement, a little like calling bungee jumping in Zimbabwe as not for the squeamish !

Huh is not a player we should be in a rush to oppose and I am sure that we can back him again in some way, in the coming weeks.

Luke Donald was a sunday winner for us @ 9.20 a few weeks back and we have been incredibly close with two other big prices, Robert Allenby @17.0 traded at sub 1.03 with a hole to play, but found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and Phil Mickelson @ 13.5 entered the final round of the Masters as favourite and paid a big price for what was effectively one very loose shot. Those two cost us almost 30 points of profit, but I have a very good handle on the PGA tour this year and anticipate plenty of winners through the summer.

Another very busy week in prospect and I am 95% certain that I will have my second "maximum" double stake selection of 2012 on Friday, but I will confirm this the day before and send the relevant email at a predetermined exact time.

Onto today, a kind of low profile day in that I am only putting up one bet, but I am quite keen on it....


You and I have known for many months and now everyone else knows, that Bastia are the best team in Ligue 2, they have scored the most goals, conceded the fewest and head the table with an eight point lead over Reims with this game in hand. More importantly, three points tonight would give them a 15 point advantage over fourth placed Clermont, with five rounds to play and a vastly superior ( 18+) goal difference. So cue huge celebrations and a party atmosphere is planned at the stade de Furiani, with flags being handed out to every spectator.

Chateauroux are in tenth place with 44 points, that sees them seven points clear of Le Havre currently in 18th and the same number adrift of Troyes who are in the final promotion spot, again, with this game in hand. They are exactly in mid table from that point of view, only one team Vannes has ever been relegated with 44 points and that was a very freakish occurence, as they won 12 games, the same as the team who finished seventh ! So, we can assume that they are already safe and if not, they have three home games remaining to claim the, at most ,one point which will seal the deal. Therefore, surely we can expect them to come looking for the points which would take them to within four of the promotion spots, it is that "freeroll" we often refer to. They don't really do draws in any case, just five in their last 38 league starts (13.16%) and even given Bastia's daunting home record ( 12-4-0) and arriving without top scorer Maxime Bourgeois, they should be looking for the win. They have named four strikers in their squad and two, plus a midfielder have all scored five or more goals this year, so they have players who know where the goal is and appear to be coming with the right approach and this is key.

We talked ahead of the visit from Amiens on March 16th, (see below), about how the hosts adapt to their visitors approach, if teams come here and look to shut up shop, they are content to try and grind things out, but if teams open up, they will follow suit , safe in the knowledge that they can outscore most in a shootout. Bastia beat Amiens 2-1 that day ( hooray... good old Amiens !) and have since beaten Laval 3-2 and Guingamp 3-1 here. If Chateauroux come with similar intent and apart from damage limitation, which seems to make no sense, what is the point of doing otherwise, this game should produce goals, with the visitors also contributing. The visitors actually have a great record here, winning on five of six visits, scoring 12 in that sequence. I do not think an away win is totally out of the question, but they would almost certainly need two goals in any case , with Bastia scoring in every home start this season and in 8 from 9 on the road, the likeliest outcome remains a home win with both on the scoresheet, so 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.0 general quote for me.

Bastia : Novaes, Baccarelli - Angoula, Choplin, Mary, Harek, Rothen, Diallo, Maoulida, Thauvin, Khazri, Suarez, Cioni, Marque, Vincent, El Azzouzi.
Châteauroux : Fernandez, Caradec - Reynaud, Inez, Fournier, Sambou, Neves, Fauque, Orinel, Grange, Kashi, Hautcoeur, Beauvue, Mandrichi, Lafourcade, Dupuis.

Good Luck.




We last talked about Bastia on Monday, when they again showed their class with a 3-1 win at Lens, that gives them a ten point lead over Troyes in fourth spot and top flight football is coming back to the second city of Corsica, they are simply playing too well to mess things up from this position. Latest lambs to the "slaughter" are basement club Amiens, who gave themselves a lifeline with a 2-0 win over Angers on Tuesday, so they have had 24 hours less recovery time, but have little to lose tonight and have showed in recent road games at Lens, Boulogne, Clermont,Guingamp and Laval, that they are now prepared to gamble and try to take the game to opponents, which was not the case earlier in the season, they scored in all five of those games and I expect them to approach this in a similar manner. I have reproduced the whole email from March 2nd below, which included a look at the Guingamp match and also the Tours game that day, more of them later.  Bastia have conceded in 8 of their 13 home games, of the five where they kept cleansheets, at least four of them where to teams who came looking to shut up shop and try and steal a point, all five teams lost. When teams have come here with a more offensive approach, Bastia are happy to open up and go toe to toe. The over 2.5 goal line at circa 1.97 is acceptable, but I prefer the odds against quotes for Amiens to score, or the 2.25 + for both to score, there is even some 2.375 around and that is a terrific price IMO, for something that has happened in eight of the visitors last ten road games, if 2.25 or better is available to you, I make that a solid 1.5 unit selection.

Bastia : Novaes, Baccarelli - Angoula, Mary, Sans, Harek, Choplin, Genest, Khazri, Thauvin, Cahuzac, Rothen, Diallo, Maoulida, El-Azzouzi, Suarez.
Amiens : Ruffier - Mainfroi, Mienniel, Lybohy, Ieslch, Martin, Paul, Kharbouchi, Djaballah, Saïfi, Touzghar, Cissé, Cirilli, Bazile, Puyo, Zobiri.


Saturday, April 21, 2012


An edited version of my daily notes, sent to subscribers overnight is reproduced below. It included four red type selections, two suggestions and a very nice multiple at odds of 35.0. 
There was also an early non league selection sent Friday, which is now trading a full quarter goal lower.

I can only post in full one of the red type selections on here, but even the "suggestions" include some useful information. Results do not really matter short term, but the content does and if you want to receive the notes, in full, on a  daily basis, for about the cost of a cup of coffee, sent me an email @


I will send a brief update email at 14.00 today .

Six matches to discuss in this email. Four selections, two suggestions at big odds and a very juicy looking multiple bet at a massive 34-1 .


Pompey beat Crystal Palace 2-1 on Tuesday and kept alive their slim survival hopes, now they need to see off Derby County and hope that Barnsley manage to take a point off Bristol City and keep the dream alive to the last week of the season. Palace were a little unlucky not to claim a share of the spoils, they hit the woodwork and were wasteful infront of goal. County are a similar level side to Palace, they also arrive with nothing to play for being rooted in midtable, what Pompey would give for that ! Derby arrive on the back of consecutive losses to play off contenders and failed to score in both, but their performance in a wide open game at Cardiff in midweek was much improved and they carved out a number of goalscoring opportunities. Visiting coach Nigel Clough will be without defender Tom Naylor and midfielder Ben Davies (both hamstring) and he has added youngsters Mason Bennett and Will Hughes to the squad,Bennett, who is 15, became Derby County's youngest-ever player when he made his first-team bow in October against Middlesbrough while 16-year-old Hughes came off the bench in the Rams' 3-2 loss at Peterborough United in November. Clough intends to give both some game time at Fratton Park.....



Stevenage found a late winner at home to Carlisle in midweek and that really opened up the four way race for what looks the sole remaining playoff spot, that is unless Hudderfield Town or MK Dons do the gentlemanly thing and lose their last three starts....

41Milton Keynes43201498145+3674WWXL2111644421229853724
51Huddersfield Town43191777546+2974LLLW21126332192271144327
6Notts County431910146555+1067OWWW21125436242275102931


81Carlisle United431715115961-266LLOX2211743729216872232


Boro have still to go to Sheffield United next week and Carlisle are at Sheffield Wednesday this afternoon, Notts County have the easiest run in on paper and currently in pole position, have to be favourites, but pressure is a funny thing and it would not surprise me were they to slip up. Brentford could put themselves in seventh today with a win, possibly even sixth and they will surely have to go all out for the three points, even coach Uwe Rosler, who has been accused of being a little too negative at times, will surely be prepared to throw caution to the wind at some stage.Boro do not really have a fearsome home record, OK, they have only lost three times here, but just a 38% win record and only twice this season have they scored two or more goals and not also conceded two or more. The Bees are unbeaten in seven, with two draws and have only conceded twice in 675 minutes, both goals coming when they were already two up, in a 3-1 win at Preston and 2-1 victory at MK Dons. They are coming off two 0-0 draws, but were jaded in the first and facing a fresher opponent and last week, Notts County came with only a point in mind and the game never got going with a lot of free kicks and the visitors looking to slow the game down at every opportunity. We can expect this to be a more open encounter and the Bees cannot have any excuses after a free midweek, when they have had five clear days to prepare for one opponent, Boro have had to face two promotion rivals inside four days and despite their high fitness levels, might feel the effects of that, the longer this one goes. Brentford will have big travelling support, they have already sold 1,100 + tickets and should have closer to 1,400 in the stadium, which is likely to be 25% + of the total attendance. Bees have moved slightly from a 4-5-1 formation on the road, to 4-4-1-1, with Saunders, who is at the top of his game, playing just behind Donaldinho and this has worked really well in recent away starts. Last home loss for Boro, came against Orient who played a very similar formation to the Bees. Close game to call, any value is probably on the straight away win, which looks overpriced at circa 3.40 IMO.


Charlton are promoted, they need four more points to make mathematically certain of going up as Champions and six would give them that "magical" total of 100 points for the season, but they could reach both targets by winning their last two games after today and still have that last day of the season home fixture with Hartlepool, with which to put on a show for their supporters. My point is that they do not have to win today.

The situation is very different for the visitors, they are three points from safety and the two teams just above them have very win-able fixtures this afternoon, Leyton Orient hosting Yeovil Town and Walsall going to Exeter City, who whilst not quite relegated yet, are in even bigger trouble, five points behind and with an inferior goal difference to Wycombe. Wanderers need the win, especially with their two remaining fixtures also very tough looking games on paper, a visit from Notts County, who will be battling for that final playoff spot and a trip to Hillsborough to face Wednesday, currently third in the table, although a glimmer of hope there as the Owls might have nothing to play for by that stage and could be looking to rest players ahead of the post season.

I feel Charlton have ridden their luck a lot this season, it is hard to call a team fortunate after 43 games when they lead the field by six points and all but two teams by 20 + , but I have seen them outplayed on at least five occasions and in each, they have managed to win by a single goal, in two, with virtually their only attempt on goal in 90 minutes, BUT they have won 28 games and you can't argue with that, as much as I would like to try ! Anyway, Notts County and Colchester United have come here and won in the last 5-6 weeks and Rochdale and Bury collected recent points at the Valley and Walsall came here on Easter Monday, had 16 attempts on goal and left feeling "robbed". You could argue that Wanderers are hungrier than all of those visitors, they do have goals in them, 22 in their last 11 starts and will get chances. They were dismal when they let us down at Chesterfield recently, but bounced back with two goals against another releagtion haunted team in Oldham last weekend, only to be denied all three points by a 90th minute penalty, after they had missed a spot kick of their own which would have put them 3-1 up.  Anyway, win or lose, Wycombe Wanderers look attractively priced at 6.0 to claim the three points they so desperately need.




18Oldham Athletic431310204764-1749XLLL2184923242256112440


20Leyton Orient431210214370-2746LLLL21551119312275102439
21Wycombe Wanderers431110226180-1943XLXX2276934342144132746
231Exeter City43911233967-2838LWLX2177725252224161442


1Swindon Town43285106929+4089LWWW2218314482110292521
21Shrewsbury Town4325996337+2684WWWW2217503612218492725
31Crawley Town43221477450+2480WXWX2214534722218942728
42Torquay United43231196044+1680OXWW22127335222111462522
5Southend United43228137048+2274OWLW21106531182212283930

We are down to four teams battling for the two remaining automatic promotion spots and with a playoff spot already assured, there is no point in anyone leaving anything out on the pitch, there is nothing to lose and everything to gain from going all out for maximum points. Torquay are the minnows of the bunch, being easily the smallest club near the top of the table and almost certainly with the lowest playing budget. But they have performed best of these in 2012, collecting 45 points from 22 starts since the turn of the year, Crawley Town with 31 and Southend United with two points less, have fallen off the pace slowly, but surely in the second half of the campaign and are stumbling over the finishing line, although Crawley might just have found some form just in time, with seven points from three starts, but with those two wins coming against teams in the bottom five, they have not beaten much !

Torquay boss Martin Ling has targeted nine points from their remaining games, they might not need three wins, but it is good to know that United feel they do. Much of their fantastic run has to go down to keeping a very settled starting eleven, six of the players have started 44 + games in all competitions and four others have 35 + starts, which is incredible, similar story today, Ling must choose ( his only selection problem) between Ian Morris who returns from suspension and Ryan Jarvis for the starting role alongside Howe and Stevens upfront and as the coach explained "whomever doesn't start will be a superb sub to have". The 4-3-3/ 4-3-2-1 has worked terrifically well for United and they have not looked back since switching from 4-4-2 at the end of October.

Hosts have had a solid enough start to League 2 life after promotion last season, but boss Terry Brown, who has been sick this week and missed training,knows this group of players are not strong enough to mount a promotion challenge, he and his management team are already looking to bring in new recruits for next season and now that survival is guaranteed will be looking to rotate his squad over the last three games and look at all his options. Brown said "some of the players on the periphery who are playing for contracts I would like to give run-outs to. I would like to look at other players, but it is proving more difficult than I envisaged because we do not want to end the season with a run of defeats. I am not saying that because we are playing the youngsters that would definitely happen, it is for them to prove otherwise if they play ". Hosts have not won in four, just once in seven and have underperformed against the better teams, being without a win in 13 starts against top 8 sides. Plenty of United fans making the very long journey up and they have sold their full allocation of tickets for the game, I expect them to be going home in bouyant mood.1.5 units Torquay United -0.5 ball 2.12 asian line.

Sent Friday 13.52 UK time ....

Woking -1.25 ball 1.83 asian handicap is likely to disappear quickly and you might even be able to trade out pre kick off / shortly for a profit. Now trading @ -1.5 ball 1.74

Good Luck.


Friday, April 20, 2012


I did add a brief preview ( if you can call it that) of another Ligue 2 game to the post below, about an hour after the original content was posted, just in case you may have missed it. Scroll down a little to read it.

If you are interested in reading the daily notes in full and unrestricted form, on a daily basis, please contact me on and I will get back to you with details.

Good Luck.

TGIF .............


A watching brief on last night's Europa League games was the correct way to go, but our outright bet on Valencia at big odds now looks in trouble following that 4-2 defeat in Madrid, but they did grab a lifeline with that late, late second goal, so things could have been even worse ahead of the return leg at the Mestalla. We can return to that next week, for now, a hugely busy weekend in prospect and plenty to discuss today, with three Ligue 2 previews and a quick look at one other fixture, with a big bearing on the Conference playoffs.


Let's start with those league table standings since Christmas, which I have just updated, very notable last week that Monaco and Arles both won again, they have been the big improvers since the holiday break and show no signs of easing up just yet, collecting an impressive 70% and 63% of their points over the last fourteen rounds, Le Mans also edge into the "improvers", their hard fought win over Amiens giving them 59%.

Going the other way are Metz and Le Havre who have each collected just 27% of their points over those 14 games , followed by Boulogne with 28% and Guingamp with 32%, but they at least stopped the rot with a 3-0 thumping of Laval last week. All percentages have been rounded up.

League table since Christmas ( 14 rounds)

BASTIA ...................... 32 pts
MONACO .................. 30
SEDAN....................... 28
ARLES ....................... 26
TROYES .................... 25
LE MANS.................... 23
TOURS........................ 22
ISTRES....................... 21
NANTES ................... 20
LENS ......................... 19
REIMS........................ 18
CLERMONT.............. 15
ANGERS.................... 14
LAVAL ....................... 13
GUINGAMP................ 13
LE HAVRE................. 10
METZ ......................... 10
AMIENS .................... 10
BOULOGNE ............. 9



Amiens : Bonnefoi, Ruffier - Lybohy, Mienniel, Cirilli, Ielsch, Baudry, Enza Yamissi, Poirier, Kodjia, Kharbouchi, Saifi, Touzghar, Koubemba, M'Changama, Puyo, Mohamed, Bazile.

Istres : Petric, Menetrier - Sainati, Chelle, Barillon, Flegeau, Kehiha, Melliti, Ba, Agouazi, Fettouhi, Tarasconi, Nouri, Akrour, De Préville, Yahia-Chrif.



Boulogne : Gurtner, Bague - Rimane, Colin, Lecointe, Touré, Gace, Karuru, Ducatel, Oliveira, Bru, Reale, Capoue, Allart, Salibur, Rèset, Sakho.

Clermont : Farnolle, Moulin - Avinel, Esor, Fomen, Landre, Saiss, Alessandrini, Bayod, Ekobo, Moullec, Namli, Sylla, Dembélé, Djabbour, Morel.



Lens : Fabre, Kasraoui - Bergdich, Rémy, Yahia, Berenguer, Ben Saada, Coeff, Cuvillier, Démont, Ducasse, Kondogbia, Sow, Koïta, Pollet, Toudic.

Metz : M'Fa, Sissoko - Abdoulaye, Métanire, Tamboura, Besle, Wagué, Guerriero, Fleurival, Bouby, Diaz, Ngbakoto, Pouye, Delort, Duhamel, N'Sor.


Two and three rounds respectively left to play for, for these two clubs , but a limited amount to play for this evening. Wrexham have gone toe to toe with Fleetwood for the title for almost eight months, are already assured of second place and top ranking in the playoffs and will be looking to recharge what must be some mentally drained batteries ahead of the post season. I think it is worth noting that the only time we have seen the "real" Wrexham in the couple of weeks since their chance for top spot had gone, was in the match at Fleetwood, when they wanted to put the champion's official celebrations on hold for a week. It would have been too much to see their big rival's unbridled joy in person. They could reach 100 points with three wins, which I assume would be some kind of record for a non title winning side, but that would be a very tall order and in a perverse way would probably only make them feel worse ! Town have been in great form, going 14-4-2 over their last 20 starts, they need a point to ensure they finish in third place and that will enable them to rest players for the match at Kidderminster next week.

So, a little more for the hosts on the line, they also have a fine record under floodlights, being unbeaten in their last 12 evening kick offs, including a draw with Fleetwood and 3-1 win over Wrexham in the reverse fixture, that sequence also included two games against Luton Town and given the quality of some of those opponents, makes the stat all the more impressive. The visitors also have a Wales derby game with Newport in midweek and that might be their main focus ahead of the playoffs. Neither team will want to give too much away either, given the potential of the pair meeting in the Wembley final and we can expect both to rotate their squads, home boss Paul Cox, who has just signed a new two year contract has a fully fit squad to choose from,but
the Stags boss must decide on whether or not to risk using his key players on what is likely to be a very heavy playing surface after a lot of rain in the UK this week, which is a bit of an understatement. He said “I will play the strongest side I feel can win both games with an eye on the two most important games of our season – the play-off semis."
“We need to keep everyone fully match-fit and sharp so anyone who is fit will play. But I may have to be very shrewd in what 16 I choose to win two football matches.”
Cox warned: “What we’ve done for the last 44 games now counts for nothing. We will be judged on the two semi-final games and the final if we get there."
“Some people may think we’ve had a great season. Well I am hoping we still have five games left and there is still a lot to play for."
“The hard work actually starts now and I have got to get that across to the players."

Hard game to call, team news is key, but this is also the Stags last home start and they will want to take their momentum into the post season, they won the earlier game, arrive in better form having won their last four, the Dragons have not won in four and given Town's record under the lights, I would just about favour them, but will stick with my far stronger news for the Ligue 2 games.

Two emails tomorrow, the first at the normal time and a follow up at 14.00, when I will pass on any late news received through the morning.

Good Luck.


UPDATE ..... added at 11.00 UK time.

I wanted to write about this match in the main email, but was waiting on confirmed team news and when I got it, was a little confused ( see below) ! So wanted to give the match a little further thought.

No further bets, but I can declare a small interest in Nantes to win at Laval at up to 3.20 , the hosts do not lose too many at home, just five in the last two seasons, but one came just two games ago and they are short of options tonight, with several players missing and lacking a natural right back. They were very poor at Guingamp, who were claiming only their third win of 2012 last week. I see that four players previously listed as injured/unavailable have made the Laval squad, none of them featured last week and were said to be out again this, either a bit of trickery from the coaching staff, miracle work in the treatment room, or more likely, a bit of desperation (!), with Laval now just three points off the drop, having been seventh just nine weeks ago.

Nantes found a way to beat top 3 side Reims on Monday, despite being without both starting full backs in Jonathan Martins Pereira and Olivier Veigneau , they return tonight and six points off the promotion spots, with just six rounds to play only a win is going to help their cause, but if it comes, a nice looking fixture list and the second and third placed teams facing each other tonight, might keep the dream alive for another week or two.

The visitors remain a very big club at this level and have won the Ligue 1 title and both domestic cups in the last dozen years, it would not take too much to get this juggernaut up and running. Certainly coach Landry Chauvin who is said to be on borrowed time has extra incentive to put in a strong finish to the campaign.

Nantes have taken four points and not conceded from their two most recent visits here and have lost just once in 15 h2h meetings, but some of those were a long time ago.

Laval : Balijon, Hautbois - Signorino, Talmont, Pallois, Perrot, Rose, Gonçalvès, Levrat, Losilla, Renouard, Le Baron, Lebouc, Do Marcolino, Viale, Gimbert.

Nantes : Riou, Zelazny - Alhadhur, Cissokho, Djilobodji, Krychowiak, Martins Pereira, Veigneau, Bessat, Keita, Trébel, Veretout, Bangoura, Le Tallec, Pancrate, Raspentino, Wiltord.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012



Unlucky with a couple of bets yesterday, Coventry City missed a penalty at 0-0, the keeper, who could easily ( would normally) have been sent off for the foul, making the save and Vaz Te, had three good ealy chances, one was disallowed and he tripped over ( unchallenged) when through with his clearest opportunity. Portsmouth, currently my third favourite side again did what was required and Mario Gomez finally found that second goal for Bayern, after missing several second half chances, so it was not all bad news.

Three previews today, including a STRONG overnight selection.


This is a competition I am very keen on and one we have done well with in the past, we have spoken several times previously about the recent Korean domination of the event and whilst Al-Sadd took the title last year, Korean clubs filled three quarter and two semi final places and it is difficult not to see them being equally succesful this year.

Pohang and Adelaide are old adversaries and are meeting in the competition for the sixth time, incredibly, the earlier meeting this month was the first time that the Steelers had beaten the Australian club and they would have been pleased to have got that particular monkey off their back. This is probably the weakest Adelaide side they have faced, one that won just five A-League games all season, conceding a league high 44 goals, including 23 on home soil ( only one other team allowed more than 17) , who are missing playmaker Dario Vidosic today and have played just one competitive match in 26 days since their season ended. That was the 1-0 defeat in Pohang and the 16,000 km round trip it involved. Vidosic is set to be replaced by local youngster Evan Kostopoulos and that is far from a like for like substitution.

Much has been written about the weather in Adelaide and how it will not suit the Steelers, but that is not true, they are used to hot temperatures and spring has sprung in Korea and come kick off, it will probably be cooler than current day time highs in Pohang, so no concern there and the visitors will be able to play their normal high tempo pressing game and anyway, when have you ever seen anything other than a superfit asian side and just eight games into their domestic season, they should be at their peak. United have had a long campaign and might be physically and more importantly mentally drained , with their seasom effectively ending a month ago. Pohang will hound them for 90 minutes and will be coming on strong late in the game, when the hosts are tiring, yesterday, Ulsan Hyundai played Brisbane Roar up in Queensland and scored a late winner, after drawing the home group game and Roar are much stronger than United. This is how I see today's game panning out, with Steelers strong in the second half, they were 1.90 level ball earlier this morning, but have been trimmed slightly, I would have taken the higher quote, but an happy to wait and see how this plays out and maybe take a bet in running. Match starts at 11.00 UK time.

Adelaide United squad: 1.Eugene GALEKOVIC (gk) (c), 2.Osama MALIK, 3.Nigel BOOGAARD, 4.Jon McKAIN, 5.Daniel MULLEN, 6.CASSIO, 7.Zenon CARAVELLA, 9.Sergio VAN DIJK, 11.Bruce DJITE, 12.Antony GOLEC, 13.Ricardo DA SILVA, 14.Cameron WATSON, 15.Jacob MELLING, 17.Iain RAMSAY, 18.Fabian BARBIERO, 20.Mark BIRIGHITTI (gk), 21.Francisco USUCAR, 22.Iain FYFE, 23.Evan KOSTOPOULOS

Pohang Steelers squad: 1.HWA YONG (gk), 2.HEE CHUL, 3.KWANG SUK, 5.WON JAE, 6.SHIN JIN-HO, 7.Zoran RENDULIC, 8.JIN SUNG, 9.JI SOO, 10.Derek ASAMOAH, 11.Park SUNGHO, 13.WON IL, 14.TAE SU, 15.JUNG HONG-YOUN, 16.KIM JIN-RYONG, 17.SHIN KWANG-HOON, 18.MOO YUL, 20.HYUNG MIN (c), 22.BYUNG JUN, 24.DAE HO, 26.CHAN HO, 27.Iainis ZICU, 28.AN IL-JOO, 29.LEE MYUNG-JOO, 30.KIM CHAN-HEUI, 31.DA SOL (gk)


Good Luck.

Sunday, April 15, 2012


Zaragoza have beaten Granada 1-0, scoring early and holding on, which is fine, but bad for the nerves ..... only 83 minutes to go .... only 77 minutes to go !

Sochaux -0.5 ball was my other early bet (for subscribers) and they have also just won 1-0, with Modibo Maiga scoring for the fourth match in a row.

Nice to start the day with two from two, but a long way to go on a busy Sunday yet !

But I wanted to talk about my selections in more general terms, over the last three weeks I have had ten black type "suggestions" in my daily email notes, these are in addition to my main bets, they are usually extra bets on the games or events I have previewed, normally more speculative and at bigger odds.

Anyway, there have been ten , just ten, six have won, including four at odds of 11.0, 10.0, 5.30 and 5.0, two others were a 6-2 correct score at 125-1 in a match which ended 5-2 ( !) and one at odds of 17.0 where one more goal in a match where there were two inside the first 18 minutes ( so, 72 + minutes to score a third), would have landed the spoils !

These are not random picks, but well thought out, reasoned selections that have a realistic chance of winning and which will definitely make profits long term.For example ,the correct score bet can be viewed here LINK. All, I repeat, are sent in addition to my standard match previews.

The cost to receive the daily notes is between 1.25 and 3 euros per day, it is priced as such so that readers can afford to read the email each day and make their own mind up about what to bet and what to let pass. IMO it is the perfect betting aid, 90% of the content cannot be viewed elsewhere, the other 10% is on here. If there were ten other similar services out there and I do not believe there is even one, then I would be happy to subscribe to all of them. I pay more to buy the Racing Post each day and do not even open the newspaper most days, but it is there if I need it.

If I want to play tennis I need a racquet and balls, I would look stupid otherwise, you should feel equally as silly betting without as much information as possible.

Just reading the blog is fine, you are very welcome to do so, but it is a little like watching a trailer for a movie, as opposed to the whole film, interesting, but not very fulfilling and you do not get the full picture.

If you are interested in the bigger picture, email me at ......



Golf as promised, but I have also found what looks a really nice football bet for one of tonight's late kick off's. Also a "suggestion" for that game at circa 3.40 and I urge you to strongly consider both bets.



-6 NA

Swedish golfer Carl Pettersson is a four time winner on tour, is in solid form having already finished runner up twice this season, a good front runner who has won on three of the five occasions he has led entering the final round and one who knows this part of the world very well, having a home in and attending college in the neighbouring state of North Carolina.

He improved his position both times he started inside the top five on sunday in 2011, CP was ranked 9th on tour for Round 4 scoring last year and is already ranked 13th from limited starts this campaign and it is very difficult to pick holes in his chances today. I priced him at even money in a 100% book, so anything over 2.0 and he is currently circa 2.06/ 2.08 on the exchanges is acceptable if that is your kind of thing, he has a four stroke lead over the field aside from Colt Knost and whilst it is always dangerous to write anybody off, I do not like the chances of Knost at all. He has shown little on tour so far, one third place in a low profile event and has just stepped up from the Nationwide Tour for a second time, he looks very much the journeyman pro, infact, he would proably love to be considered as such ! Knost was very nervous yesterday and goodness knows how he slept overnight and how he will react today, not too well is my guess.

Regular readers will probably know that Zach Johnson is a player I like a lot and he should definitely have won on tour last year, something he had managed in the four previous years and is likely to do so again this year, but he has little previous form here at the Heritage and is short enough in the outright markets as the closest "name" player to the top two.

My very basic pre tournament notes are reproduced below and it is Brandt Snedeker and Kevin Na, whom we discussed there that I would like to focus on today.


..... averaging 68.81 for 16 rounds, that is over three strokes per round better than Robert Garrigus who was ranked 161st btw, he played the same number of Sunday rounds and a three stoke margin is HUGE , with a capital H U G E !


So, how do we approach this ? If you twisted my arm, threatened me with lifetime banishment from Griffin Park unless I picked a winner, I would have to go with Pettersson, who has solid credentials, but the odds are skinny and we can take better odds without necessarily trying to find the tournament winner.




Good Luck.

PGA TOUR: RBC HERITAGE, Harbor Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, SC ( written thursday)

The Tour stays in the Deep South, moving from Augusta to Hilton Head and form on the two courses has become increasingly transferable in recent years, 2011 winner Brandt Snedeker and runner up Luke Donald warmed up with a T15 and T4 place in the Masters last year and are again amongst the main contenders this year, after strong finishes last weekend. Infact, there is a quintet of golfers who perform well year in, year out on the Harbour Town Links who proved their well being at Augusta.

We have to start with Donald, he has finished 2-3-2 here in the last three years and clearly loves the place, with the tight fairways and need to position the ball in the right place and think your way around the course, clearly suiting his game. Luke never got things going at the Masters until it was too late, you could hear the frustration in his post round interviews, but a final round 68, was five shots better than he shot over the first three days and a total only beaten on Sunday by Bo Van Pelt and that at least brings him here in good heart and remember, the englishman is already a winner in the US this year.

That last round 64 from from BVP was incredible and he will be itching to get back on course, especially having posted three top 13 placings here, including a third in 2010, in the last five years.

Snedeker warmed up for a repeat with a 19th place finish at Augusta, very similar to last year's form coming in and like Donald, he has already won this season.

JIm Furyk won here in 2010 and also has two runner up spots to his name, he was second in the Transitions Championship to Donald and was 11th in the Arnold Palmer and Masters since then and is in his best form for two years, I have listened to some very confident interviews from him over the last month and it has not always been like that from realist Furyk, after the Transitions he said ....

Q. How encouraged do you feel? Do you feel like you're back to playing Jim Furyk golf now for hopefully the rest of the year?

JIM FURYK: I've kind of been saying all year I've been feeling comfortable about my game. The results on paper might not show it before this week, but I felt good about the way I'm hitting it; the way I'm shaping the ball well; my short game feels good, I'm really happy with my equipment.
I'm really happy with my equipment. I switched a lot of equipment in my bag this year but never felt better with it. I did a lot of great testing at Callaway with it and I appreciate all their hard work.
I feel confident in my game. I'm hoping to play better and to play well this year. Talking about this year; I was kind of laughing about my press conference here yesterday, because all we did was talk about how I played last year. I laughed about it on the way out of here yesterday. And I would like to play well for a few more events so we could talk about how well I'm playing this year, rather than how bad I played last year.

He clearly felt everything was coming together and his form since bears that out, he seems sure to go well this week.

Last of the five is Kevin Na, he is very consistent and had already posted three top 5 finishes in six starts before a T12 at the Masters and he has finished 9-35-MC-17-4 here in the last five years, you can forget that missed cut, as he withdrew from the tournament the following week and all was clearly not right with him at the time. He got that all important breakthrough win at the end of last season and a follow up victory should not be too long in coming, keep him on your radar.

Na should definitely go well and Donald is a worthy favourite, but a little too skinny for me at this stage.

No need to get overly involved at this stage, we will return to the tournament later in the week, but lets start with something small on Jim Furyk, 0.25 unit to win @ 18.0 exchanges, one unit Top Ten finish @ 2.75 +.

Contact :

SUNDAY .....


The two "over" games ensured a profit on the day, a big one for those of you of took the 11.0 "suggested" for both games to also produce four or more goals.

At the RBC Heritage on the PGA tour Jim Furyk, moved back up the field with a bogey free 67, which takes him back to three under par and in a share of 14th place, two strokes off a tie for 8th. Furyk effectively lost 7+ strokes to the field on Friday and even a standard round that day would have seen him in major contention today. Sometimes it is the small bets which are the most annoying and I am going to be very frustrated if he doesn't claim a top ten spot, he probably needs a 69 or better today to do so and that should be well within his capabilities. However, there are several great and hopefully better bets at the Heritage today and I will cover them all in the follow up email, which will be with you at 11.45 UK time after all bookmakers have updated their odds.

For now, the football games ....


I think the hosts are a little overpriced for this must win fixture. They looked doomed a month ago and remain in deep trouble eight points from safety, but three consecutive wins against Valencia, Atletico and Gijon raised hopes, before losses in the last week to Barcelona and Sevilla, it was hard to see them getting much out of those two starts and they might have had one eye on this game in Seville in midweek and their fixture list, with four of their next five starts win-able home games and the other a trip to midtable Mallorca, gives them hope of an unlikely survival push if they can claim the points today. They are seven points from safety, but only eight behind Granada, reduce that to five this afternoon and suddenly, the great escape is on ! Granada have not won in five and beaten only Gijon in nine and have failed to score in three of their last four, they would probably settle for a point, but don't do draws, especially on the road, where they are 4-1-11, so all three points look up for grabs. Granada arrive without six players and three would be considered starters and they are short of midfield options today. Hosts have collected 18 points from their last sixteen games, which over the full season , puts them at least on a par with the visitors, so value in the quotes today. 1.25 units Zaragoza -0.25 ball 2.00 asian line.


Back Later.

As you know, my daily notes are produced every day and you can receive them in full, directly to your inbox each morning, for less than 1.25 euros per day, for an extended subscription.

That is vitually giving it away and the daily email is fat free and better for you than most of those other "cheap" pleasures !

Email me at with the subject title "interest" and I will forward details.