Thursday, April 30, 2009

UEFA CUP .............


I am not the biggest fan of German league football, but am quite looking forward to this game. Not quite sure what went wrong with Bremen early in the season, their Bundesliga campaign has been a shambles and they are booked for a mid table finish, which for them is unacceptable. They have managed to keep the fans on their side with two big cup runs and to be honest, whenever I have seen them in recent weeks, I have been quite impressed, infact, it would amaze me if their were two better teams in Germany, despite what the league table might say.

They needed a penalty shoot out to see Hamburg off on the road,in the DFB Pokal semi-final last week, but were well on top and could easily have won by four goals, which is no exaggeration. Only the home keeper kept his side in the contest. A very heavy schedule appears to be taking it's toll on Hamburg and it is a while since they put in a convincing performance. I assume that they will be up for this, but will be without Mladen Petric and both Marcell Jansen and Jonathan Pitroipa are carrying knocks, although one, maybe both might play. They are in a tie for third spot in the Bundesliga, desperate to earn a top three spot and the Champions League place that comes with it and probably have not yet given up on the title. With second placed Hertha coming to visit at the weekend, their focus is sure to be split, at least a little, between the two games.

Bremen are fully concentrated on this game alone and will be looking for a lead to take to the second leg. I think that even without the injury or clearer motivation factor, that the home side are simply the better team at present and expect them to win.

7.5 points Weder Bremen -3/4 ball 2.11 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009




Barcelona have looked the best team in Europe this season and I suppose it would be justice of a sort if they won the premier club competition. However, I am not sure that they match up so well against English teams, who have dominated the competition in recent years, winning just one in six against EPL teams and failing to win in four at the Camp Nou. These semi-finals are traditionally extremely tight affairs and with both clubs knowing the value of an away goal, we might not see the goal fest that most of us are hoping for.

Chelsea have looked far more comfortable on the road this season and to be able to bet then getting such a big handicap start, looks too good to be able to resist. The Blues have a very astute coach at the helm now and Guus Hiddink is confident he has a plan to keep Lionel Messi in check, whether that is the case we will see, but the visitors hold plenty of offensive threat too and Drogba, Lampard and Anelka, will also pose questions of the Barce backline.

Semi-finals in all competitions are very strange affairs, the pressure rises a whole other level and especially in the first leg, teams tend to cancel each other out. Of the last sixteen, eight have ended all square, with six 0-0 draws, including the Barce-Man U game last year, of the rest, only one ended in a two goal winning margin.

With tonight only being half time, I do not see too much change in those stats and feel that Chelsea will come away with something.

Despite this being such a huge game, Barce also have to have El Clasico at the back of their mind, when they travel to Madrid at the weekend, before the return in London, a massive eight days when even the Catalan giants array of riches might be stretched.

Did you recognise young Guus in the photo ?

6.5 points Chelsea +3/4 ball 1.93 asian line.

Good Luck.




I see a lot of value in the draw here, one or two bookmakers agree, but most have priced this up like a normal league game. However, a point would ensure survival for Northampton and mean that they travel to Elland Road without fear and enjoy their final start of the season. Automatic promotion is no longer a possibility for Dons, but a share of the spoils would take them into third place, meaning that in their final start, away to Hereford, a win would ensure they finished in this position. That would mean meeting Tranmere or Scunthorpe in the playoff semi-finals, instead of facing Millwall or Leeds, who IMO and those of most observers of football at this level, are much stronger teams. It would also mean playing the second leg at home.

With an Italian (Roberto di Matteo) boss in charge, I am sure that Dons have done all these permutations and he will be aware of exactly what his team need. Both teams to get the result that will suit, a draw for me.

5 points draw 3.20 + ..... up to 3.45 available on the exchanges.

Good Luck.


I have two selections today and also want to say a few words about the Bundesliga outright selection I sent to you (subscribers) on April 18th (reproduced below).

Stuttgart were put up at 33-1 and things have gone very well for them since then, starting with a three goal win at Koln, they now sit just three points behind leaders Wolfsburg, whom they host on Saturday and with second placed Hertha facing a very tricky game at Hamburg, even the current odds could look silly come Sunday evening.

I would rate them no bigger than 5-1 and yet there is still some 9-1 on offer, if you are not already involved, I would suggest that you take a little now.

4 points Stuttgart 10.0 to win the Bundesliga ( if you have not already taken the 34.0).

GERMANY BUNDESLIGA (sent April 18th)


Stuttgart have been playing well for several months now and have lost just once, a bit of a thumping at Werder Bremen, in twelve outings since late November. Bremen are a funny team and on their day, are capable of destroying any Bundesliga team, so I am prepared to overlook that result and it hardly put them off their stride, as they have won three in a row since then and posted some very impressive stats. They enjoyed 54% possession and 24 attempts on goal when seeing off Hertha, then 59% and 27 on the road at Bochum, hosting table topping Hamburg last week where they managed 55% and 22 goal chances.

They have moved into Champions League contention just three points off the pace, after being nine adrift immediately before the Winter break. Stuttgart have a good run of games with their next three starts all against teams in the bottom 8 of the Bundesliga and are firmly targeting a return to Europe's premier club competition. They have experience of a well timed late challenge, as they were four points off the pace with five rounds to go, when snatching the title in 2007. Something similar is not impossible this time round and with leaders Wolfsburg still to visit the Mercedes-Benz Arena and a last day of the season trip to Munich, they have the fixtures to mount a strong challenge, coach Markus Babbel has recently signed a contract extention, despite not having all his "badges" and looks to have a big future in his new profession. I am taking them to win today and also,a small bet at huge odds to win the Bundesliga.

Koln are in relative safety, nine points clear of the drop zone and not in the greatest of form with four losses in five starts, they did win the reverse fixture 3-1, but Stuttgart were in a slump then and in the middle of a five match winless run. VfB did have a huge amount of possession and with possible a little revenge on their mind to say nothing of bigger plans, they can be expected to make better use of it this time round.

6 points Stuttgart to win 2.20 general quote.

2 points Stuttgart to win the Bundesliga 34.0 Corals/ 29.0 Stan James.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ..............

Frustrating couple of days, after a fantastic Saturday when my beloved Brentford secured the Division 2 title in front of 1,500 travelling fans, who had made the near 600 mile round trip to Darlington.

There are going to be some "glamour"games and big crowds in a very tough looking Division 1 next season, which could contain Norwich, Charlton, Leeds and Southampton, all of whom have recently been in the EPL. It will certainly be a step up from Accrington, Chester and Grimsby, although no disrepect is meant to any of those fine clubs and an exciting season for the Bees is in prospect.

There is always a lot of talk amongst football supporters, about what constitutes a "big "club, fan base is often put up as a guide, but IMO a team has to fall upon very hard times to see that loyalty really tested. Full praise to the Norwich faithful who have ALREADY purchased over 18,000 season tickets for next season, to watch what is very likely to be third tier football. That is impressive and in my book, makes City a big club..

Back to this season, despite the poor Sunday results, we had enough in hand from earlier in the week to record the third consecutive winning week (over 85 points in total) for subscribers and I remain in very solid form.

I am going to post three previews on the blog today, so please check back.

Monday, April 27, 2009




Here we have two teams who have to go for it tonight, although a draw would not totally be the end of the road for City, it would leave the visitors preparing for the play-offs. Therefore, I see a little value in the "over", despite goals for Reading being at a premium in recent months and to be honest, I was a little shocked to see the odds against quote, so we have to take a little.

To snatch the automatic promotion spot, the visitors have to win their last two and hope that Sheffield United drop points at Crystal Palace on Sunday. That is a complex game as Palace boss Neil Warnock is a United lifelong supporter and former coach, on the other hand, Reading boss Steve Coppell is a Palace man, so anything could happen. However, what is clear is that it is outside of Reading's direct control and whilst they still have a massive incentive to win tonight, at the back of their mind they know that and also have the "cushion" of a post season spot to fall back on.

For City two wins and they will be safe, a draw will leave them relying on results elsewhere on Sunday, but it would give them more options than defeat, bringing Forest into the equation. Their final start is at Charlton, who are already relegated and whilst they are fighting all the way, that is about as good as the Canaries could hope for. Carrow Road will be filled to capacity and on occasion City have been impressive here, dismantling a couple of the best teams in the Championship, we have discussed them a lot recently, they create plenty of chances and Reading will have to open up, on the road at times they have been too negative IMO, so this should be entertaining, despite the pressure being on both and I will take City to earn the points that will take them above Barnsley and out of the drop zone.

5 points Norwich level ball 2.09 asian line.

4 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.07 asian line.

Good Luck.

Sunday, April 26, 2009




Visitors are in my opinion the best of the clubs fighting for Ligue 1 survival. I believe that they got distracted by their European adventure and without that would be in mid table safety. They remain in the drop zone and face a six pointer with Nancy next week, so can ill afford to lose today. Nice have won just once in 9 starts and have nothing to play for in eighth spot, they are 7 points adrift of 7th and four clear of 9th, they have finished 8th in two of the last three years and that is where they are again set to finish ! They should be ideal opponents for a motivated team, which Saints definitely are, the visitors proved that they can play on the road in their UEFA Cup run and are buoyed by a 2-1 win over highflying and inform Lille last week, X2 for me.

5.5 points St Etienne level ball 2.14 asian line.



I have personally been following Vallecano for several weeks and they have been playing at a very high level.They went into the mini winter break struggling for form, but have since built up a head of steam and are unbeaten in sixteen starts in 2009, including winning four of their last five. Three points today will take them into a promotion spot and they have to be favoured at Alicante who are 11 points adrift of safety and have been dire this season, especially on home soil, where they have won only once and that came back in September, some 13 games ago. Goals have been the big problem, in a league which is becoming increasingly open, they have managed just 14 at home. Rayo have not played in the top flight for six years but with three of their next four on home soil, a win tonight will take them a little nearer to a return and set up a big end of season promotion push.

6.5 points Vallecano -1/4 ball 1.85 asian line.

Both written early this morning.

Good Luck.




Saturday, April 25, 2009




Albion are still not officially relegated, but that is just a matter of mathematics and the dreaded day will arrive soon. However, they are far from down hearted and continue to play with great spirit and adventure, despite losing in a six goal thriller at Eastlands last week, they could/should have been two up at the break and that is characteristic of how their season has gone. They will not change their principles and will continue to try and play football, they should be given every plaudit going for that, but on the other hand, they cannot defend and have looked very naive at that end of the pitch. It is impossible to see them conceding less that two at the moment, they will press forward from the off and the pace, movement and physical challenge of Cisse and Jones upfront for the visitors, is going to cause the home backline all kinds of problems.

Sunderland are desperate to collect the three points that would go a long way to cementing another season in the EPL and obviously, at this level, it doesn't come any easier than a trip to the Hawthorns. They have been a bit negative at times , especially on the road, which is why we get some juicy odds, but this fixture simply cannot be played that way and will be another end to end thriller. Goals for me.

6.5 points "over" 2.75 goals 2.35 asian line.

Good Luck.




Cheltenham are another side who are on their way out of the division, but are also going down fighting and recent performances have been very good. However, it is very likely that at some time during this game, that scores elsewhere will seal their fate, that can only be a bonus for us, as I am firmly in the visiting camp.

Having narrowly missed out on promotion last season, this campaign has been a nightmare for United and now they find themselves in big trouble, in the drop zone on goal difference, with the team immediately above them (Northampton) having a game in hand and hosting relegated Hereford this afternoon. A point might suffice for Carlisle but a win would give them real hope of survival and could leave matters in their own hand on the final day of the season, which is all they can hope for at present.

United have been here before, in the last decade they have had so many of these end of season relegation/promotion battles that they are better equipped to handle it than most. Loyal Carlisle fans know that they have a part to play and some 800 of them are making the 500 mile round trip to support their team, they will make a lot of noise in tiny Whaddon Road and could be the 12th man.

Visitors have the better squad, Town were forced to release a number of their higher paid players, despite fighting a relegation fight and I expect them to win. In the last month their level of performance has improved greatly, despite collecting minimal points. In four April starts,they have conceded a 94th minute equaliser to Swindon last week, a 78th minute winner at Huddersfield and a 89th minute goal to Oldham, which cost another two points, they also drew 2-2 at champions Leicester City. With a little more focus late in games, they could have collected eight points from those fixtures and arrived here free from worry. They cannot afford to slip up this time.

6 points Carlisle United -1/4 2.19 asian line.

Good Luck.

Friday, April 24, 2009

TGIF ...........

I was going to say that we have a big weekend ahead, but to be honest, that is the case every week and we never run out of matches and the opportunity to do battle with the oddsmakers.

All three of the selections put up yesterday won and I am in a rich vein of form on the football, with 25 of the last 35 selections sent to subscribers winning, that's over a 71% strike rate and despite what you might read elsewhere, that really is about as good as it gets.... anywhere .

The daily email service costs a shade over 2 euros per day at standard rates and I can make a very special offer with massive savings, to anyone that sends me an email using this link.

You can read further details on the website .

Back later.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

THURSDAY ...........



Inter trail 3-0 from the first leg, but I expect them to give it a go this evening and at least try to pull back the deficit. With the Scudetto in the bag, they have little else to get them excited between now and the day the title is officially won. There is also a little bad feeling between the two left over from the bad tempered league game here in January, which saw Jose Mourinho sent off. The three goal defeat in Genoa will not have improved the situation and the former Chelsea boss has named a strong and attack minded 19 man squad, including five strikers Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Julio Cruz, Hernan Crespo, Victor Obinna and Mario Balotelli.

Feel that they will come out all guns blazing and to keep the tie alive really need a first half goal, if that doesn't come, things could simply fizzle out. If they can breach the ten man defence early, then who knows ! I will take the double result option for the champions elect, they have led at the break in over 53% of all starts this season and the need for a fast start is much greater tonight.

5.5 points Inter-Inter HT /FT double result 2.0 + ......... a little 2.12 on the exchanges as I type.



Espanol were a good winner for us at the weekend and I want to stick with then this evening. Of course it will be tougher on the road, but they meet the team that they are looking to replace in La Liga safety and this is a match they simply cannot afford to lose. Sporting have lost their last four and now sit just three points above the drop zone, four clear of the visitors. They are incapable of drawing, have an incredible 11-0-20 record, losing nine at home, conceding 31 goals, to put that into perspective, no other La Liga team has allowed more than 24 in front of their own fans. Looking at their stats this season, they have allowed opponents far too much of the ball and some of their wins have been real "smash and grab" affairs, coming against the run of play, IMO Espanol are a much better footballing team.Hosts will also be without their suspended keeper and if the visitors can keep this tight early, their away starts have been increasingly tight affairs, I expect them to push on and collect the points.

6.5 points Espanol -1/4 ball 2.12 asian line.



Everything I said about Ebbsfleet on Tuesday still holds true, they are a very weary side, it was just that Wrexham lacked the desire to take advantage of it. Despite Northwich having been relegated weeks ago, they have decided to go out with a bang and are looking for a fifth straight win, including three in a row at home, with a 7-0 goal difference. NV are very motivated to win their last home start in the Conference and give supporters renewed hope for next season. Any remaining energy United have will surely be kept for Saturday, when they sign off in front of their own fans, this will be their 19th start in 46 days and although there will be rotation, the squad is not big enough to make wholesale changes. Confidence is high at Northwich and I feel that they will win.

6 points Northwich -1/4 ball 2.02 asian line.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

LA LIGA ......


Real finally took the spoils last night, but left things very late. However, that does reduce Barcelona's lead at the top of the table to just three points and ahead of an unbelievably tough schedule, which sees them face Sevilla, Valencia, Chelsea, Real and Chelsea again, all in the next 14 days (!), the pressure is most definitely on them. They will want to win tonight of course, as that will give them some breathing space, but even if taking the lead, I do not see them chasing a second or third needlessly.

Sevilla were in excellent form themselves, with a 7-1-0 record from early February, before losing their last two, however, they were as much due to poor decisions from the officials and a little compacency, as Seville were secure in 3rd spot, well clear of the pack, with the top two out of sight. However, that lead is only down to five now and a visit to the Camp Nou, will further rekindle interest. They have a decent record here, have only lost by two twice in eight starts, scoring ten goals. Striker Freddie kanoute is on fire with 11goals in ten starts and looks good value at 3.75 to register another, but I will stick with the visitors getting a healthy handicap start. Many people connected with Seville consider this, their strongest squad in recent memory, although many might say the same about Barce.

5.5 points Sevilla +1.5 goals 1.88 asian line.


Valencia have refound their touch with four straight wins and look fairly secure in fourth place in La Liga, however, with games against Barce, Real and Atletico in their next four starts, now would be a bad time to step off the gas. They have a good record here, being 4-1-1 on their last four visits and it is hard not to see goals tonight, with the last seven h2h meetings ending "over". Betis are unbeaten in seven at home, but concede freely and have ridden their luck at times in that sequence, they have allowed 23 goals in 11 starts, with seven of those matches producing four or more goals. Valancia have scored and conceded in 19 of their last 21 and surely both will be on the scoresheet this evening. I favour Valencia to win, but the "over" looks a much better option.

6 points "over" 2.75 goals 2.0 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009




I am going to take the visitors for mimimal stakes, just cannot allow myself to bet more on a team that are low on confidence and do not know where their next goal is coming from ! Much of the blame for Wrexham's demise must lie firmly on Dean Saunders shoulders, he arrived in a blaze of glory, started fantastically and everyone, including me, bought into it. Then, having done much of the hard work and having got Wrexham into the top 5 and with an eye on a late season charge at the top spot, everything went very wrong. Saunders signed far too many players IMO, he has the biggest squad in the UK (!), 45 players I think, almost half of whom he has signed himself, that has resulted in far too much tinkering and his man-management skills have been dire, choosing to publicly chastise players in the press, whilst accepting no blame himself, can only end in tears. So, why do I want to back them ?

Well, the visitors do have much the better players, many of whom will be looking for new jobs in the summer and also they would like a result before facing what could be a hostile crowd in the final home game of the season at the weekend. Also, Ebbsfleet have played an enormous amount of games, with a much smaller squad than Wrexham,incredibly, this will be their 18th start since March 8th, so, more than a game every 2.5 days over a 44 day period. The win at Weymouth on Saturday finally secured their safety and I believe that they will suffer a mental let down, they still have another two games to play this week and this gruelling schedule will surely take it's toll, now that there is nothing to play for.

4.5 points Wrexham to win 2.85 + much higher is available if you shop around.

Good Luck.




The world and his friend have been racing to back Liverpool this week and the odds have tumbled. The hosts only have the EPL title to play for now and will be fully focused on getting the three points, but Arsenal, despite a miserable injury list, are not the type of team to just lie down, least of all in a big 4 match up, so I am going to approach this from another angle.

Since Rafa has thrown the shackles off early goals have been a focus of Liverpool's games, with their last seven starts producing 14 first half goals, nine going in the opening 30 minutes.

Arsenal's recent starts have also produced early fireworks, their last twelve matches have seen nine goals in the opening 18 minutes and with a draw having little real use to either team, although the Gunners would probably accept that and no further injuries, we can expect another thrilling opening . I will take "over" the first half goals and hope for a repeat of the reverse meeting, when they went in 1-1 at the break.

5.5 points "over" 1 goal 2.25 asian line.

Good Luck.




This is a derby game, hardly a massive one in world football terms, but definitely the biggest match in Getafe's calendar. Both could do with the points for very different reasons, just at quick glance at the league table will tell you why. The visitors still have a four point cushion over the drop zone, but will need to find a couple of wins before the end of the season and it is hard not to see them getting further sucked into the dogfight at the bottom. The teams immediately above them in the table look stronger and those below are now picking up points. Getafe have won only three of their last 16 starts, two of those came against bottom four teams, the other, incredibly, away at Sevilla. However, their high flying opponents are/were in a very strange position in the league, especially going into that game, looking almost definitely booked for third place in the table, with a quarter of the season still to play and I suspect motivation was a problem.

Real will have taken note of that result and motivation will hardly be a problem for them. They have spent all season chasing Barcelona, with the gap at six points and "el clasico" just 11 days away and their big rivals meeting Sevilla and Valencia this week, they are not going to throw all the hard work away, by not putting Getafe to the sword. Real are creating plenty of chances, their 1-0 win at Recreativo on saturday, could easily have been by a much bigger margin and they are 15-1-0 in their last sixteen starts, with eleven clean sheets. The visitors have been softened up by chasing Barce shadows for 90 minutes at the weekend, again the scoreline might only have been 1-0, but the league leaders had 70% possession and did not allow the home side a single shot on target.

Real will win, this is one of the few times that they have played the day before Barce and the chance to put some pressure on their great rivals ahead of a tough fixture cannot be missed,although recent meetings have been close, I suspect they might run away with this one. Revenge will also be on their mind, after losing the reverse fixture 3-1at a time when they were in poor shape.

6.5 points Real Madrid -1.5 goals 2.03 asian line.

Good Luck.

Sunday, April 19, 2009


In addition to Rooney, Ronaldo and VDS (see earlier post) the United team bus has just arrived at Wembley and also missing are Carrick, O'Shea and Fletcher.

Good Luck.

USPGA GOLF .............


Brian Gay leads by three, but only has one previous win to his name on tour, in an event when all the gig names were playing in a WGC event elsewhere. The leaderboard is packed with non-winners, players that cannot get it together in the fourth round and others who have not won in a decade ! Davis Love is a 20 time winner on tour, the last time at the end of last season off and he already has a second place to his name in 2009, he has won this tournament an incredible five times before !

DL3 is a proven final day player, which is obvious I guess, given his winning record and he is ranked in the top four for driving distance and greens in regulation this week. He is six off the lead in a tie for fifth, but only three from second spot, which is what we are looking for with our outright bet. He is paired with Briny Baird, who is terrible on Sunday's, we have discussed this earlier in the year, but as an example, in the Bob Hope, he shot 63 in R1, 71 in R4 and in his last regular season start, in the Shell Houston Open after a first day 65, a dire 80 on the "money day". I am pretty certain that DL3 will beat him and if the outright bet, which should be available elsewhere, is not to your liking, you could increase stakes for this two ball bet.

3 points each way Davis Love III without Brian Gay 6.50 1/4 odds 123 Stan James.

5 points Love III to beat Briny Baird 1.80 + ........ 1.83 in places.

Good Luck.

FRANCE LIGUE 1 .............


Big game for OM who face a very difficult trip to Lille next week., they currently lead Ligue 1 by a point, with the second and third placed teams meeting later today, therefore, probably only a win will keep them at the top and with such a tough game up next and still to host seven time champion Lyon, they will be all out for three points, against an opponent who has only won four times at home this season. OM have collected more road points (8-6-1) than any other team and will be out for revenge, after losing the reverse fixture 3-2 in incredible circumstances, the league leaders were two up, with 15 minutes to play and somehow lost ! They took a long while to get over that and I am confident that those demons will be exorcised this afternoon.

7.5 points Marseille -1/2 ball 2.04 +

Good Luck.





I think Everton are playing very well at present and they will have benefitted from a free midweek programme. They have already had two very close games with United this season, drawing at Goodison and losing by the minimal margin at Old Trafford, the poor condition of the Wembley pitch is going to level things our further and they look good value getting a big start. For United this is another day at the office, for Everton, the highlight of their season. The Merseysiders have not lost by two goals since October, that's 29 starts and the loss against United, was the only one in 8 starts over that sequence against the "big four", United will rotate their squad, Rooney , Ronaldo and VDS are not even on the bench.

6 points Everton +3/4 ball 1.88 asian line.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ............

Not much luck with the two blog selections yesterday, Boro had chances in the second half to take the lead and Motherwell dominated most of their game, but neither could find a breakthrough goal.

It is no consolation to you, but subscribers fared much better, with three of my other four selections winning, which actually produced a profit on the day. That is the problem with the blog, as it only contains a very small portion of my output and the best selections and value are normally kept for subscribers. That is not to say that you won't make money long term by following the blog selections, just that you run the risk of getting the "short end" on occasion, of course it could always work out the other way too and you might get the best of the deal, but that is less likely.

Incredibly busy day today, I have previewed seven matches on the email, four from UK games and three covering action from mainland Europe. In addition to which, there were two selections from the USPGA tour. There will definitely be 3-4 posts on the blog, so please check back later.

Brentford eased home 3-0, but the champagne is still on ice, after results elsewhere meant that promotion is still not assured, but the deal can still be seasled at Dagenham on Tuesday.

Back later.

Saturday, April 18, 2009


Very interesting day today, there are a lot of "must win" games out there, especially in England, where almost everything, is still up for grabs. I have sent subscribers previews of six matches and already reproduced two on here (see below), not sure if I will post any more on the blog, but please check back later.

I am very keen for Brentford to put the promotion issue to bed this afternoon, it would be nice to just get it out of the way and start the celebrations. The difference between playing Charlton and maybe Leeds, Southampton and Forest next season, all of which are "glamour" ties for the Bees, as opposed to trips to Accington and Morecambe( no disrespect to either) on a cold February night, is huge, to say nothing of the much needed revenue increase.

It is very difficult for me to get to Griffin Park on a Saturday nowadays, there is simply too much to do on the busiest day of the week, so my visits are restricted, almost entirely, to midweek games. However, I couldn't be anywhere else this afternoon, so my schedule has been cleared and I just hope that the boys do the business and results elsewhere confirm the Bees return to Division 1 .......... next stop, the Championship !

For those of you not lucky enough to make it to GP, the Nadal-Murray game in Monte Carlo could be fun and a lot closer than the bookmakers odds might suggest. I have seen Rafa as short as 1.07 and anyone taking that, regardless of the result, needs to see a doctor and quick !

Good Luck.

Friday, April 17, 2009

PREMIER LEAGUE ...........



We were with Boro last week and the three points they took off Hull City have given them hope of preserving their EPL status, however, to do so they will have to see off this inform Fulham team who have an eye on a european spot. With games against Arsenal and Manchester United up next, Boro can settle for nothing less than three points today. They continue to create a lot of chances and if things fall their way, I expect them to take the spoils. I do not doubt their commitment and if they play the way they did when beating Liverpool and West Ham in four days here recently, when they chased down every ball and put continuous pressure on their opponent, even deep in the opposing half, they will win.

The visitors have suddenly found some road form, with consecutive 3-1 wins at Bolton and Manchester City and boss Roy Hodgson has done a terrific job in turning them around. However, those wins were only their 6th and 7th in 74 EPL away starts and they are not suddenly a team to trust once they have left London. Strange situation for visiting keeper Mark Schwarzer who is still a hero at the Riverside after 11 years with Boro, not saying he will do the home side any favours, but if he has to have a bad game between now and the end of the season, it might as well be today ! This is all about motivation for me and Boro's could not be greater.

5.5 points Middlesbrough -1/2 ball 2.25 general quote ..... up to 2.30 available.

Good Luck.

SCOTLAND SPL ..............



Saints have relegation concerns, but after this round the SPL splits in two, so they will have a further five games against bottom half opponents to preserve their status. That is not to say that they would not like a little breathing space and some points from this encounter, but they might be distracted by next week's Scottish Cup semi-final with Rangers and have also had 48 hours less recovery time that Motherwell, after playing a tough game with Hibernian on Monday. I watched that and Saints did a lot of running in nasty conditions, it is only natural that some players might be tired, especially with this a lunchtime kickoff and one or two might have an eye on the cup game, the club's biggest match in recent seasons, played before a big television audience.

Hosts are currently seventh one point behind Hibernian, who host title chasing Rangers on Sunday. Therefore, a win would leave them in the driving seat and mean that Hibs would have to do likewise, to secure a top six finish. The incentive is huge, as it means games against Celtic, Rangers, Hearts, Aberdeen and Dundee United, instead of trips to Inverness and Hamilton. The difference in revenue is huge and there is no doubt that this is Well's biggest game of the season. Home team have slashed admission prices for the game, in order to get as much support as possible behind the team, they finished third in the SPL last season and to miss out on a top six place this time, would have major financial implications at the club.

7.5 points Motherwell -1/2 ball 1.80 + ........ up to 1.90 in a place.

Good Luck.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

UEFA CUP ..............


Only an inspired display from Shay Given kept City in this tie in the first leg and on what the home side are calling their "biggest european night in 30 years", they desperately need a result to not only progress, but to keep their long suffering fans happy.

The performance at home to Fulham at the weekend was too much for some and supporters were voicing their displeasure long before the final whistle. All that has been forgotten for the time being and the City of Manchchester stadium is a 47,000 sell out for tonight and the club are doing what they can, to make the atmosphere as "hot" as possible.

After starting on the bench on Sunday, Robinho will lead the line tonight and the word is that he will be given a completely free role, with no defensive responsibilities at all, which will be a relief to everyone. Several players reported knocks after the Fulham game, but all are expected to be passed fit and the weekend debacle aside, let's be sure about one thing, City at home and City on the road, are too vastly different teams. At the COM , they have won over 62% of all starts and 33% by two or more goals, which trailing 3-1, is what they are looking for. I think they might just do it, but much prefer the straight win odds.

The bonus with this bet is that Hamburg, who are without two key defensive players and have a vital league game on Sunday, where they are battling for a Bundesliga title and Champions League spot, plus a domestic cup semi-final next midweek, will be "happy" to lose by a single goal. I really like the odds, home win for me.

6.5 points Manchester City -1/2 ball 2.08 + asian line.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009




Here we have two very tired teams, both looking fo the three points, who are each making their third start in just five days. Hyde are 4 points from safety, with a poor goal difference, so effectively 5 adrift, with just three games to play, they have given themselves a lifeline, with three wins in four starts, but those game against teams with little to play for. Against the top 6 sides this season, they are 1-1-9 , conceding 32 goals, the only win came pre Christamas at Telford and they lost the home reverse fixture a few weeks later 4-0. At home they lost four of these conceding 14, only drawing with Alfreton Town, but they were completely outplayed in that fixture and could easily have lost by 3-4 goals.

Southport are looking very safe for a playoff spot, but are only four points behing leaders Tamworth, with a game in hand, in the hunt for the sole automatic promotion spot, with a superior goal difference. A win would cut that lead to a single point and with the leaders looking very nervous at present, that would give them a live chance, with three rounds still to play for both teams.

There is a huge diffence in class between the top and bottom of this division this season and I expect the visitors to win. Both are nursing several injuries, but Southport have the stronger squad and options. There is also the possibility that Hyde might earn a relegation reprieve, with Team Bath dropping out of the League above, I have not be able to confirm the true ramifications of this, so we will treat the possibility as a bonus. Away win.

6 points Southport -1/2 ball 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009



Bayern were left humiliated by the 4-0 loss in the first leg, it could, perhaps should, have been much heavier and at the break, a six goal lead would not have been unfair. I do not see the visitors taking too many chances with their big name players, Messi is likely to spend the game on the bench and Henry did not train yesterday.

They have been talking up a good game and said that they will be looking to score early and kill the second leg off, that might be the case, but the tie is already over and I feel that Barce will be more interested in coming home unscathed. Van Bommel's brutal challenge on Messi in Barcelona went unpunished and visiting coach Guardiola will not want a repeat of that, with a crowded fixture list on four fronts still ahead of his team, why take any needless chances.

The Allianz Arena is a 66,000 sell out and with their Bundesliga title challenge back on track with a big home win at the weekend, Bayern will not want to undo that work tonight, with another sould destroying performance. Their defence has a stronger look with the return of Lucio and Lahm and although Jurgen Klinsmann has admitted that scoring four or five is not even a dream, the opportunity to beat possible the best team in the world, doesn't come around very often. Backing Bayern on home soil, at huge odds, when their opponent might settle for a one or two goal loss, is also a rare occurence and we have to take a little.

5.5 points Bayern Munich -1/4 ball 2.36 asian line.


Liverpool were also lucky to only concede three goals in the first leg and will now be eliminated ,if they do not do at least do likewise at Stamford Bridge tonight. That looks a very tall order, but they will take heart from the fact that Bolton managed it in eight minutes at the weekend, of course, they were 4-0 down at the time, but at least it gives them hope. Let's also remember the famous Champions League win over Milan in Istanbul , where they were 3-0 down at the break.

It is against Rafael Benitez's natural instinct to be too gung-ho, but he has no option tonight and his team have goals in them , 21 in their last seven starts and the players who could produce a miracle. He and they will have to gamble, Steven Gerrard will have to start, even if not fully 100% and they are forced to simply go for it. They will certainly see a lot of the ball, as Chelsea seem certain to sit back and play on the counter attack. The Blues will be without the suspended John Terry, which will doubtless please in form visiting striker Fernando Torres and given the circumstances, I have to take the "over" at odds against. Even going a goal down would not change things too much for Liverpool and this could get very stretched, especially after the break.

5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line.

Good Luck.


If Brentford beat Accrington Stanley and EITHER Bury do not win OR Exeter lose, then the Bees will be promoted this Saturday. The win at Bournemouth yesterday, in front of 2,000 travelling fans eased the pressure and now everyone at the club would like to get this deal done and dusted as soon as possible and let the celebrations begin !

It is difficult to focus on too much else at the moment, but looking at more mundane matters, we do have Chelsea-Liverpool and Bayern Munich-Barcelona tonight, I have a bet in each game and will post both on the blog later in the day, so please check back.

Good Luck.

Monday, April 13, 2009


My four selections today are now trading at a combined 61 clicks or "cents" down and as such, I will not be posting any on the blog today.

Anyone that wants to subscribe to the service and receive the newsletter each and every day directly to their in box, can find full details on the website .

Good Luck with your bets today.

MONDAY ......

Very pleasing results yesterday, Mickelson, Watney and Jiminez all won and stakes were returned on Cabrera, who went on to win what turned out to be an exciting finish to the US Masters, after a three man playoff. Those four bets produced almost 23 points profit and I hope that some of you got involved, subscribers to the newsletter were also sent two winning football bets, including one "big" stake selection, which won very easily.

We have a full lower league programme in England today and I previewed four matches on the email, which also featured another "huge" stake bet, about which I am ultra confident.

Back later.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

US MASTERS ...............


The forecast is for dry and sunny conditions today, so the course might not be quite as friendly as it has played this week and with sunday pin positions, we might be in for some fun and high scoring.

Kenny Perry and Angel Cabrera lead the field by two strokes and will be the final pairing today, the winner has come from the last group out in 17 of the last 18 years, so plenty of people will not be looking beyond these two. However, both can get very nervous and other stats are against them, Perry would become the oldest Major winner ever and Cabrera with three rounds already in the 60's, is due a big number, as no golfer has ever shot four sub 70 scores at Augusta. Having said that, maybe he could win with a 73 and he is looking to become a two time Major winner after his shock 2007 US Open win. I favour him to beat Perry, he is said to be very relaxed and with a big one already in the bag, his nerve might hold out better than KP, it is one thing to win on Tour at 48, but to claim your first Major at that age is quite another.

Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have been paired together and although both are seven shots off the lead, you can be sure that we will see more television coverage of these two, than the overnight leaders. Tiger has holed nothing this week, it is not that he has putted poorly, just that nothing has fallen for him, his swing looks in excellent shape and he could put in a massive charge today, if everything clicks. "Big Phil" is not so big now and a winter spent in the gym has left him looked as fit as we have seen him in many years. They both have the ideal game for Augusta and it would have been fantastic if these were leading the field and playing together, however, there is not a lot of love lost between the top two players in the game and neither will want to give an inch. The last five times they have been paired together, Mickelson has won three, with one tie, so at "level ball" and 2.75 he looks too good to pass imo, especially given Tiger's putting woes this week. Having said that, Tiger is an expensive guy to oppose, so we will keep stakes small.

Second two ball out is Miguel Angel Jiminez against Rocco Mediate and I am confident that the Spaniard will take the spoils in this one. Last year in very difficult last day conditions he shot 68, only one other player bettered 71 and Jiminez charged through the pack to finish 8th, This is not the first time he has produced similar last day heroics here and facing Mediate, who looks a little tired after, by his standards, a very busy March and who finished 193rd on tour for final day scoring last year, he is a sound bet for my money.

Finally, one of our new favourites Nick Watney, who I will take to see off Stephen Ames. Last year Watney shot 71 in round 4, a total only beaten by two players, so the conditions and pin positions will not bother him today. He is already ranked 8th for final round scoring this year, with his 8 sunday finishes averaging a very fine 68.75, he beat Ames by four strokes in 2008 (on Sunday) and is a much better, more rounded player now and could hardly be in stronger form.

With regard to the outright winner , I have no idea and can find reasons to oppose all the leading contenders.

5 points Cabrera to beat Perry 1.96 Pinnacle Sports..... up to 2.10 available with the "tie" you lose quote.

5 points Mickelson to beat Woods 2.75 Pinnacle Sports.

7.5 points Watney to beat Ames 1.91 general quote.

7 points Jiminez to beat Mediate 2.05 general quote.

Pinnacle refund stakes with the "tie", others are quoting with the "draw", so if taking that option, you would lose if the golfers shoot the same score.

Similar quotes should be available on the exchanges later this morning.


Good Luck.

Saturday, April 11, 2009




I was concerned that Cardiff might struggle in midweek, when they hosted Derby, they have had a gruelling schedule and played a number of key matches in a very short period of time. However, after a shaky opening ten minutes, they put County to the sword 4-1 and enjoyed 69% possession. Visiting boss Nigel Clough called City one of the best teams in the division and the victory has re-ignited automatic promotion dreams. They will have to look for three points here and facing a mid table team, who have not won in four starts and have already admitted to building for next season, is about as good as it is going to get at this stage of the season. City have had much the best of recent meetings between these two clubs and can return home along the M4 with three points in the bag.

5 points Cardiff City -1/4 ball 2.33 asian line.

Good Luck.





Hosts are firmly entrenched in mid table, 12 points off the playoffs and 13 clear of relegation, in other words, they are ideal opponents for any team desperate for a win. Rovers are just such a team and have to look for three points to cement their playoff claims, they are currently a little off the pace in seventh, but have still to play the two teams immediately above them in the table. Boss Ronnie Moore is well aware of this and has repeated said that he expects this to go down to the final day of the season, when his troops face Scunthorpe.Tranmere are in good form, with just one defeat in seven and their miserly defence has been breached only once, in 427 minutes of football. At level ball, they look a sound bet.

7 points Tranmere Rovers level ball 1.76 asian line.

Back later.




United did us a huge favour on Monday (see below) when they won at leaders Burton and kept their automatic promotions aspirations alive. They were worth more than the single goal win and looked a far better team than Albion. For all the reasons given then, I expect them to follow up today and keep the pressure on the leaders. Boss Paul Buckle really has his team fired up and with an empty treatment room and a big holiday crowd set to cheer them on, they should ease home again and although Crawley are decent enough, their need to gamble for three points too, should also make them ideal opposition. The visitors have only a tiny chance to make the post season, but will have to go for it and this will play into the hands of classier home team.

7 points Torquay United -3/4 ball 2.04 asian line.

Good Luck.



One point from two very win-able home games for Albion surely means that they have resigned themselves to a Championship return and it is difficult to see them suddenly finding some road form, against a very motivated opponent, who seem rejuvenated under new boss Paul Hart.

The visitors are 1-3-11 away from the Hawthorns, with a -21 goal difference and if and when they fall behind, this one could run away from them, like so many others have this season.

Pompey have lost just once in six , including a fine win in their last home start over highflying Everton and the sole defeat came narrowly to Chelsea. Hart has introduced a little steel to the defence and with Crouch rediscovering his goal touch and boosted by an International return, this could be another bad day at the office for WBA.

6.5 points Portsmouth -3/4 ball 2.03 asian line.

Back shortly.

EPL ...........


I am going to give Boro one more chance, they are at the point of no return now and simply have to win this game to have any chance of survival. City would doubtless take a draw, but the home side will be all guns blazing for a win and if they get a little more luck in front of goal, could earn a priceless victory.They were thumped 4-1 at Bolton last week, yet the scoreline doesn't tell the full story and Middlesbrough enjoyed 58% possession and had 18 attempts on goal, little went right for them in front of the Wanderers goal and on another day, things could have been very different. Boro outplayed both Liverpool and West Ham here recently in a four day period and if the can return to that form, they are fully capable of beating a City side who have themselves only won once in 17 starts, since these two met in the reverse fixture. Boro led that day before a late own goal and then penalty, earned the points for City. Time for the home team's luck to change.

5.5 points Middlesbrough -1/2 ball 2.12 asian line.

Good Luck.

Thursday, April 09, 2009

UEFA CUP .....

After the excitement of last night when english referee Howard Webb tried to take star billing off Lionel Messi at the Nou Camp, we turn to the slightly more mundane action of the UEFA Cup. Webb booked the "best player in the world" for diving, when the rest of the planet would have given a penalty and then, did not see Mark Van Bommel trying to remove Messi's head from his shoulders ! I doubt that Webb will be getting a Christmas card from the Argentine genius.

Bayern were simply dire and were lucky to avoid an eight goal defeat, their body language, even at two down, was terrible and although I cannot condone MVB's action, he was the only player on his side to showing any level of commitment . I bet that was a happy plane journey home !

Basic notes about three of today's games....




I am looking to oppose the three teams that have other, bigger and "better" targets. Hamburg are joint leaders of the Bundesliga and are seeking their first domestic championship in 26 years, they face a key match away to resurgent Stuttgart at the weekend and with a number of defensive problems here, will surely have one eye on the game ahead. As I have said before, I believe that City are ideally suited to playing in Europe, they already have a win in Germany this campaign to their name and will give this match their full and undivided attention.

OM and PSG are involved in the closest Ligue 1 battle for many years, equally as important, they are battling with four other teams for the three Champions League spots. PSG have gone off the boil recently, but scrapped a 2-1 win over Nice at the weekend, despite being without three of their back four. That win got them back in the title hunt and given their injury concerns plus the fact that they travel to face a direct CL rival on Sunday, it is very difficult to see them giving this, their full attention.

Marseille are only a point behind Lyon at the top of the table and will be without the cup-tied Brandao and Wiltord, they at least have the option of turning this tie around in the home leg, if they really want to, but I feel this is very much further down on their agenda at present. Shakhtar have already beaten Tottenham and CSKA here and also completely outplayed Barcelona until the final few minutes, it is very tough venue to visit.

Kiev have a long and proud European history, have a 15 point lead in their domestic league and both Ukrainian teams are very motivated to do well, not just for themselves, but to raise the profile of their country, which has come in for a lot of criticism, relating to being co-host for Euro 2012. Desire to do well in the tournament is key and I am happy to take the three teams desperate to progress in the competition.

5.5 points Manchester City +1/2 ball 1.88 asian line.

5 points Dynamo Kiev +1/4 ball 2.09 asian line.

5.5 points Shakhtar Donetsk -1/2 ball 2.00 + ....... still some 2.05 in places.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, April 07, 2009




Orient have now won two in a row, six points which, along with results elsewhere, have virtually secured their Division 1 safety for another season. They won their last start here, but have yet to record consecutive home wins at the Matchroom Stadium this season and I doubt it is going to happen tonight.United were very good value for their 1-0 win at Colchester on Saturday and their opponents never even looked liked scoring. A win this evening would take them above MK Dons and into 4th place, 7 points behind Peterborough, but with 15 still to play for and Leeds know that they are such a big name club, that teams above them will be looking over their shoulder and panicing. The same thing happened last season, when Nottingham Forest came with a perfectly timed late run, actually the former Champions League winners were four points worse off at this stage, momentum is a wonderful thing and can take you a very long way.

United stayed in the South after the Colchester game, the whole squad were together on Saturday night ( no drinking) and had an extra training session on Sunday, they only have minimal travelling ahead of this game, which they are treating like a cup final. Supporters will travel in huge numbers again, with Leeds fans having long since snapped up all their tickets and I think that they will be going home happy. Orient have managed 395 attempts on goal this season, United 564, an average of 4.225 per game more.

7.5 points Leeds United -1/2 ball 1.96 +asian line.

Good Luck.


Five players have been charged by the FA for breaching betting rules, this involves allegations surrounding the Accrington Stanley- Bury game last season, you can read further details on this BBC link

I only hope that they are not going to hang Cavanagh out to dry for betting a £5 accumulator ! A slap on the wrist at best surely. Does anyone really believe that the guy, who was one of only two of these who actually played in the game, would fix the match in order in to get one leg up, of what, even to poorly paid Division 2 players, was a tiny bet ?

Of course, these players are in the wrong and I am sure that they will be made an example of, but it would be naive in the extreme for anyone to believe that this doesn't happen on a weekly basis and on a far bigger scale, especially with the huge sums it is possible to bet on asian markets, but as always, it is only the small fish who get caught.

UK bookmakers are always quick to cry "foul", I wonder how many would have been rushing to return stakes on this game if it had ended 1-1 ? One well known northern bookmaker was well aware of the situation and changed his odds from 2.375 to 2.0 days earlier, but continued to take bets and then refused to payout, is that fair ? Lots of innocent gamblers were caught up and were in a position where they could not win, which to my mind, is also criminal .

Back later.

TUESDAY ..........

Torquay won comfortably last night, the scoreline might have only been 1-0, but they could easily have been 2-3 goals up at the break. It was a big, confident bet, at very rewarding odds and I hope that some of you took advantage.

Subscribers to the daily email service, have already had today's selections for almost 24 hours. I have previewed four matches, looking at one Champions League fixture and three domestic games. Hopefully, I will be able to post one or two of these on the blog later in the day, but cannot promise anything at the moment.

I am certain that we are in for a very profitable couple of months and this week could hardly have started better. The only way to receive all of my output is by subscribing to the service, it costs just a little over two euros per day and offers fantastic value for money, details can be found on the website .

Good Luck.

Monday, April 06, 2009




Albion lead the BSP by 9 points from Cambridge, with Torquay a further two points behind with a game in hand. If Burton win tonight the title and more importantly the sole automatic promotion place into the Football League, which goes with it, will be all but over. However, they come here on the back of a 4-0 thrashing at Crawley on Saturday and if United could win, they would reduce the gap to eight , with the game still in hand, which could take that down to five. You might think that that is still too much,with so few games left to play, except, incredibly, the leaders have still to visit sunny Torquay, on the last day of the season !

The visitors will go all out for the win tonight, they are in great form, on a ten match unbeaten run, which includes a win at the Kassam Stadium over Oxford, something which very few teams have done this season and if they can win there, this is certainly not beyond them. Boss Paul Buckle speaking on the club site said :

'I've got a good squad of players at the club. We worked very hard in the summer to get this group together and improve on last season. It will be no good after Saturday's win if we go to Burton and don't give a similar performance. We are going to give it everything we have got and play as if our lives depend on it for the last six games. It is so important to me, the staff and the supporters, to everyone connected to Torquay United.

'I think it will be a wide open game because that is the way we want to play. Burton try and play attractive football, they have some very good players and we aren't just going to open the pitch up from the start. We will have to attack but be safe behind the ball and be prepared to counter but at the same time we will not be sitting back.

'Burton are up at the top of the league for a reason, they have very good forwards and are a very good side and if we are not at it from the start we will get beaten but if we reach the standard we set against Kettering then we will take some stopping, whether it is Burton Albion or anyone else.

'We are on a ten game unbeaten run and we proved earlier in the season when we had a seventeen game unbeaten run that we haven't done a lot wrong this season, we have just drawn a few too many games. We know we are in good form and we know that the title has not been won yet, there are three or four teams who can win it and we will never give it up until it is mathematically impossible and we will go to Burton with that belief.'

I know Buckle from his playing days at yes, you guessed it, Brentford (cannot believe he only played 59 games for the Bees), he was an excellent pro who would not know how to give less than 100% and has taken this attitude into management and you can see it in his team. I think that Torquay will win tonight, Burton have been feeling the pressure since Nigel Clough left and have underperformed against the better BSP teams, they were fortunate that they had built up such a big lead at the top of the table. At the moment, I feel that United are the stronger and often, at this stage of the season, in such huge games, it can be easier to play on the road, where all the pressure is on your opponent, very nice odds and I think we should get stuck in !

7 points Torquay -1/2 ball 3.20 + general quote ..... up to 3.40 in places.

Good Luck.

Saturday, April 04, 2009

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER ..............


There is very little need for us to discuss Oxford, you all know that they are the biggest club by far at this level and their position is such, that they have to go all out for the three points.

The visitors look safe with regard to a playoff spot, but a good run of home results has given them an outside chance of snatching the sole automatic promotion spot, to keep any hopes of that alive they will have to look for the win in their first road start for 25 days. That should suit the offensive minded home team, who are 14-3-3 at the Kassam Stadium this season, down to the ground and I take them to win and avenge a 5-2 defeat in the reverse fixture. United are a very different team nowadays and it is unthinkable that they could put up such a display under Chris Wilder, a very disciplined coach.

Hosts have had a terrific boost with top scorer James Constable putting his name on a new three year contract this week.

6.5 points Oxford -1/2 ball 2.25 + general quote.... 2.30 in places.

Good Luck.

DIVISION 2 .....


Things are very tight at the top of Division 2. apart from leaders Brentford (hooray), just a single point separates Bury in 2nd, from Gillingham in 6th. So, we have these five teams, all hoping to claim one of the two, or three (!) remaining automatic promotion spots. With two of them at home today , in "easy" looking games and with a third having a game in hand, failure to win could leave things out of Bury's hands. Therefore , the visitors will have to look for the three points and a trip to Vale Park, where the home side have already lost a division high eleven times this season, is about as good/easy as it gets at this stage of the season. Bury have a touch of class about them and two recent signings, prolific striker Phil Jevons and on loan from Hull midfielder John Welsh, should see them over the finishing line. Welsh is way too good for this level and should be the final piece in the jigsaw. Vale played 70 minutes against ten man Exeter in midweek and sti ll couldn't find a goal, the season cannot end quickly enough for them and I doubt that they will match the visitors commitment today.

6 points Bury -1/2 ball 2.20 general quote.

Good Luck.



This is a far bigger game for City than it is for Wednesday, who are already planning for next season. The hosts are in good form, with 7 points from three starts, which has enabled them to climb out of the bottom three. The two wins came at home, along with a pair of clean sheets, including one over highflying Cardiff and they were well worth the point they earned against Birmingham at St Andrews last time out. Norwich have more about them than most of the teams at the foot of the table, especially offensively and they are one of only two sides in the bottom half of the table to have scored 50 goals this season. They have extended the loan of striker David Mooney, whom we have discussed several times recently and he can help fire the Canaries to safety.

5 points Norwich -1/2 ball 2.20 asian line.


United have not yet given up on an automatic promotion spot, which will be a theme for this email, they are on a seven match unbeaten run and are really on fire in front of goal, with 9 in their last three outings.They have another home game on Tuesday, before a trip to Reading next Friday, in what could turn into a key game, Their target has to be to travel South with the dream still alive and to do that, they need to start with three points today. Town are very good on the road, where they have already won eight times, but this year, their home form has let them down, which is exactly the reverse of recent seasons. Strange as it may seem, I feel this might make them ideal opponents for United. The visitors only have an outside chance of now making the post season action and will also have to look for maximum points. therefore, the draw has almost no value to either side and I will take the classier home team, who are playing with a lot of confidence and who have almost a fully fit squad to choose from.

6.5 points Sheffield United -1/2 ball 1.98 asian line.

Good Luck.

EPL ...........


Huge game for both, but especially Boro who simply dare not lose this one. Not only would it leave them in terrible shape in the bottom three, with Arsenal and Manchester United still to play,but it would virtually ensure Wanderers safety and take another team out of the equation. If the real Boro turn up, the one which outplayed West Ham and Liverpool in four days recently, then they will probably win this, man for man, I rate them the stronger of the two teams. Manager Gareth Southgate has pledged to be brave and might even play with three strikers, he will be buoyed by Middlesbrough's record at the Reebok, where they are unbeaten in five visits, drawing the last four. Expect the visitors to give themselves a lifeline with at least a point.

5 points Middlesbrough +1/4 ball 2.13 asian line.

Good Luck.


Tours won 3-1 yesterday and the Montpellier-Clermont game produced three goals, so a strong start to the weekend on the blog. The Saturday newsletter, sent to subscribers yesterday was something of a bumper edition, it contained previews of EIGHT matches, NINE selections, including two BIG bets (very rare) both at potentially rewarding odds.

I will post several of the smaller bets on the blog later today, so please check back.

Even if you are not betting (!), there is so much to look forward to this weekend. The Grand National, Murray-Djokovic in the Miami Masters final, Shearer's return to Newcastle, Liverpool have the chance to return to the top of the EPL and most important of all Bradford-Brentford, where the injury hit Bees are looking to cement their lead at the top of Division 2.

Andy Murray has won his last two meetings with Djokovic and has improved out of all recognition since he met the Serbian on this court in 2007. However, his 6-0, 6-1 defeat that day must still cause him to wake up in a cold sweat at times and I am certain that he will be extra motivated to exorcise that particular demon.

Back Later.

Friday, April 03, 2009




Surely we will see some goals here. Hosts have been "over" in their last four home starts, which have averaged 4.25 per game, the visitors have conceded two or more in five of their last seven road games.In a league where the average fixture produces 2.31 goals, these team's respective records of Montpellier (2.93 home) and Clermont (2.71 away) reflects what we can expect tonight and the host team, who now sit five points off the promotion pace, will have to take chances and push for the three points.

5.5 points "over" 2.25 goals 1.94 asian line.


I have seen Angers last two starts, a 2-0 loss at Strasbourg and a 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Ajaccio and was very unimpressed. It might well be that this is just a temporary slump and maybe we can just put it down to variance, they had after all, only recently come off a 15 match unbeaten run, but they are not a side I would be rushing to back at present. Their build up play was not too bad, but in the final third, they looked devoid of confidence and ideas.

Tours on the other hand are full of self belief, are on a long unbeaten run of their own and have won three in a row at home, scoring ten goals.

5 points Tours -1/2 ball 2.20 + general quote.



Mainz should be fired up for this game after losing very heavily at home to Aachen last time out, when complacency might have set in. Most professional teams tend to bounce back after a big loss, their hurt pride often results in a very committed performance next time out and I expect that to prove double today, as Mainz have had a full twelve days to reflect on that 4-1 defeat. They are very capable on the road (8-3-2), collecting 27 points and ony three other teams have more than 14. They remain in the final promotion spot and with Duisburg just 4 points behind, they will be very motivated to keep things tight and avoid defeat this evening. Having missed promotion by just two points last season, they have to complete the job this time round.

I expect them to concentrate on keeping a clean sheet as long as possible and maybe get a little more adventurous later in the game. This is traditionally a low scoring fixture, with the last five h2h meetings here producing just three goals between them and just a single home win. I see a lot of value in the under one goal line for the opening 45 minutes, in a match where both will probably adopt a very cautious opening approach.

7 points "under" 1 goal first half 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY MORNING ..............

Finally, the weekend is here and we can wave goodbye to the International games for a couple of months. It is not the national games that I mind so much, as the break in the domestic action, it just messes everything up, disrupts the programme and momentum.

I have sent subscribers five fairly brief previews for today's football, but will taking a more detailed look at the weekend games, which will include, not one, but two BIG bets. Blog wise, I will try and include one or two of the Friday picks here later in the day, but as always, the only way to receive all of my output is by subscribing to the daily email/newsletter service, take a look at the website for further details or send me an email using this link to ask any questions.

I think that we have a couple of massive months ahead and big profits in store, not just on the football, but a range of other sports. I sent the preview below out on Wednesday and as you will see, Estes was a very strong selection and one at a very juicy price. Round one play was suspended early in the day, but the Texan was already amongst the leaders at -2 after six holes, very long way to go, but subscribers have the value and a bet that will produce a lot of fun over the next few days.



I have written about Bob Estes a lot in the past, he is the money making machine that no one knows. The ultra consistent Estes has made some $9m on tour, yet even his wife might struggle to recognise him in an elevator.

Estes is a native Texan, he was born in Graham not too far away and went to the University of Texas, his debut tournament victory came in the state, way back in 1994, the first of four on the USPGA tour, but winning is not really his game. Grinding his way into the money and frequently the top 25, something he has done in better than one in three of his 535 tour starts, is how he makes his living and since this new course was opened three years ago, he does it best of all here.

The Shell Houston open has been held at the Redstone course for quite a few years, but in 2006 was moved to the new Tournament Course, on the complex. Estes took to it immediately and finished second here in 2006, 9th in 07 and 6th last year. Let's take a quick look back twelve months, the lanky Texan arrived here in poor shape, he had played eight events, missed 5 cuts and registered just one (33rd) top 50 finish, that was just not him, yet still he finished in the top 6.

This year he is much more like his old self, he has played seven events, missed two cuts, but has three top 17 finshes, including a 4th spot at Pebble Beach. Last week in the Arnold Palmer, he caught my eye with a fast finishing 17th place, he opened with a 74, but only Tiger Woods (1st) and Zach Johnson (3rd) played the final three rounds better and a first round 70, which was standard scoring, would have earned him third place.

He is obviously in good shape and playing on a course where he feels happy and which suits his game, he will surely go close to another top ten finish and he is very attractively priced to do something he does every 6.5 tournaments and in 3 from 3 outings here.

8 points Estes to finish in the top ten 8.50 Bet 365 .... similar on the exchanges and there should be more liquidity later in the day, anything above 7.0 offers value IMO.

Back later.