Wednesday, April 30, 2008
For example, I have written previews of six events today on the email service, including four football matches. Not going to post any of these on the blog today, they will only be for subscribers, sorry about that, pretty sure that we will have something online tomorrow. As always, you can find details of how to join the email service on the website .... www.predictuwin.com.
Good Luck with your bets today.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
I am going to be quick today, with just basic notes, I am worried that the BSS odds will not last long.
We discussed last week ,United's poor record in the latter stages of this premier club event and looking a little deeper, in six semi-final legs at Old Trafford, they can claim just a single win.
There is no doubt that their fperformance levels have dropped and amazingly, they appear to have gone a little defensive, which , to me, is a sure sign of nerves. Rooney and Vidic are major doubts and I am 100% sure that neither would start in a normal league game, so a big gamble, if either starts. Ronaldo has still to prove himself in the really big games.
No doubt it will be very tight this evening and the draw, looks the most likely result, both sides are unbeaten in the competition this season. H2h wise, four of the last five meetings have ended all square.
Barcelona's league form has been very shabby, but with the league over for them, they have only been concentrating on the CL for several weeks and rested a host of players, for the weekend fixture at Deportivo. United did not have that luxury in an exhausting game at Stamford Bridge.
People talk about Barce's wobbly defence, but they have kept clean sheets in 9 of their 12 CL outings and will be boosted by the return of Puyol to the heart of their backline. I favour them to progress to the final , feeling that Messi and Eto'o will get a goal tonight.
5.5 points Barcelona +1/2 ball 1.90 asian line.
Details of the service can be found on the website www.predictuwin.com and I will send a copy of today's newsletter free, to anyone that takes out a subscription before kick off this evening (subscriptions normally start the day after joining).
Monday, April 28, 2008
All three have pretty much dominated their respective division's all season long and each, has been promoted as champions.
I do not know of any blog, or service anywhere which supplies better information or consistently produces more long term profits. In addition to the bets below, the blog has since December 19 th, given 197 bets , 110 have won, that's a 55.84% strike rate, producing 162.02 points profit, at a ROI of 14.53%.
These figures and the previews below, speak for themselves, there is no need for any sales pitch, to get all the information from my service, you have to subscribe and be prepared to take a long term approach. Details are on the website www.predictuwin.com .
Much like in the Championship, I have had a long term fancy for this division and "jumped ship" fairly late in the day. Millwall were my original choice, with Swansea my number two.
The Lions had a fantastic run from Christmas onwards last year and from bottom of the table, almost made the playoffs ! However, I have heard tale of some unrest at The New Den and the occasional bust up, fights often break out in training, but sometimes it goes a bit further and this involved two of the bigger names at the club. Anyway, I would not rule them out completely, Willie Donachie has done wonders in his short time in charge, but I have heard enough, to put me off.
This brings me to Swansea and I am confident that they will go very close. They do not need to progress too much, only missing out on the play offs by one spot and three points last season.
Roberto Martinez took over in February and was a breath of fresh air, playing decent, entertaining football and winning over the fans big time. He sold Lee Trundle in the summer, but this was a transfer that need to happen and £1m plus for a 31yo, tier 3 player, albeit a very good one, yes please !
They have replaced him with Jason Scotland, 26 goals at St Johnstone last season and Darryl Duffy from Hull City, who has already won the fan's hearts. Martinez looks to have got the mix right, making six overseas captures, including players from Spain and Holland, in addition to some promising young talent from Premiership clubs, he already had some experienced hands at his disposal.
Pre season has gone very well, they beat Levante 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium, with two goals disallowed and the crossbar scared more than once. That was a problem last season, Swansea hitting the woodwork on 33 occasions ! A little more accuracy and they could have gone much closer than 7th, they look a better all round team, this time round.
I have quite a lot of information/ views about teams in this, Division 2 and the Conference, but will keep things, solely to my selections. as I have promised to publish this on the blog and need to hold back some opinions for now.
2.5 points Swansea outright 11.0 general quote
5 points Swansea promoted 4.0 Bet365/Tote/ Boyle/ Sky
I like Milton Keynes Dons, the new stadium is ready, a 30,000 all seater and the whole club is geared up to bigger things. The team of Paul ince and Ray Mathias and it is a team, have replaced Martin Allen and promotion has to be gained this season.
They have played and shone against Chelsea, West Ham and Watford in pre season and in, Leon Knight and Kevin Gallen they have two strikers who should fill their boots at this level. The experienced Colin Cameron has joined from Coventry and will help the host of promising youngsters the club has, flourish.
Simply cannot see them not improving on last year's 4th spot and they look cast iron "each way" .
2 points win Milton Keynes Dons 9.0 general
5 points promotion 3.0 Tote/ Stan James/Bet 365.
CONFERENCE / BLUE SQUARE PREMIER
I have just one bet here, it is a very short price, but is something of a banker to my eyes. In their 4 seasons in the Conference, Aldershot have finished 5-4-13-9 and would have been much higher last year, if they had not had such a dire start.
Former QPR manager Gary Waddock is now in charge and recent results have looked promising, a 5-0 win over local rivals Farnborough, was followed by a 0-0 draw with the Charlton first team and a 1-1 tie with a strong Fulham team, after which the new boss said ...
"I am extremely pleased considering the opposition that we were playing. They had players that are worth millions of pounds but we put in a performance that in spells we were the better team.
"However it counts for nothing and I have told my players that we have to start doing that for the next ten months or so. Their keeper paid off two or three really good saves after the break and we will need to be a bit more ruthless in front of goal".
This is a team that could go close and can be backed outright at around the 23.0 mark, new league sponsors Blue Square offer a 1.72 quote for them to be in the top 12 of the table, which they will do. At least 3 of the 4 promoted teams look very weak, so the Shots will not have too many to beat.
6 points Aldershot to finish in the top half 1.72 Blue Square.
ALDERSHOT WON THE TITLE BY 15 POINTS AND WERE 34 CLEAR OF THE BOTTOM HALF.... THIS IS THE ONLY TIME IN OVER TWO YEARS THAT THE TERM "BANKER" HAS BEEN USED IN MY POSTS.
The original post can be found here....
Sunday, April 27, 2008
EVERTON- ASTON VILLA
This match will go a long way to deciding, which of these two will get 5th spot in the Premiership and the UEFA Cup spot which goes with it.Villa will go above their hosts with a win and come here in fantastic form, winning their last 3, scoring an amazing 15 goals. Of course, those wins came against Bolton, Derby and Birmingham , but you can only beat what is put in front of you and it is worth remembering that Everton, have struggled recently against the two last named sides.
Infact, that narrow 1-0 defeat of the Rams, is their only win in six starts and they have really struggled to score, with just 4 goals in seven outings. They have sorely missed their creative influences in midfield and Cahill is out for the season and Arteta faces a late test, having spent all week in Spain having treatment on his stomach injury. Cannot see Villa losing this and we can take them on the handicap, as Everton would probably accept the draw right now, actually,boss David Moyes would probably snatch your arm off !
5 points Villa +1/4 ball 1.82 asian line.
GETAFE- ATLETICO MADRID
Madrid derby. Hosts have had a long season, fighting on three fronts with a smallish squad of players, things have caught up with them now and they are without a win in nine, losing the last two, including a thumping at basement club Levante last time out.
Atletico are just ahead in the race for what now appears to be, the sole remaining Champions League place, one point ahead of Racing and two clear of Seville. They need all the points that they can get and will be looking for a hat-trick of wins at this venue, after winning the last two by big, three goal margins. they are desperate to bounce back from the 3-1 home loss to Betis, where keeper Leo Franco made his return after 4 months out injured, he is sure to be a little fitter today.Given their huge investment in new talent this season, the visitors have to make the top 4.
5.5 points Atletico -1/4 ball 2.23 asian line.
Despite a small loss on the three blog selections, there was plenty of good information online yesterday, David Chiu won the WPT World Championship, after ending up heads up with Gus Hansen, infact, play went pretty much as I predicted .
Chiu was content to sit back and let others do the work, actually Hansen eliminated every other player. Down to two, the Dane held a 5.25-1 advantage, with 84% of the chips in play, but things can change quickly heads up, Chiu ground him down and took the massive $3.4m first prize. Hope that some of you took the 4.33 with Stan James.
My three big bets on the email service all won, two given yesterday morning, the third several days ago, at big odds. I am definitely over my slump and I would advise any of you to give the service a trial, as my confidence is back and that is key in this business.
I have just sent out my preview's of today's action, where I have discussed six events in some detail. Hopefully, I will cover a couple of these on here, later in the day.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
BRISTOL ROVERS - BRIGHTON
Not going to get overly involved in what is basically a friendly, but Rovers are a big price and I do not see too much between these two sides. The visitors play-off dreams ended with Leeds win last night and they might give a few fringe players an outing. Rovers have had a satisfactory first season in Div 1 , to go along with another fantastic cup run, they will want to give their loyal fans a send off today and a PMA ( positive mental attitude) for next season.
4 points Bristol Rovers -1/2 ball 2.75 general quote.
BOURNEMOUTH- CREWE ALEXANDRA
Hosts have done really well to give themselves a chance of survival , after looking dead and buried, following the deduction of ten points. A win and only a win will do for them and they will have a sell out crowd cheering them on. They will have to take chances and push forward, seeking their sixth win in a row, 5 of which have been "over".
Crewe, have won their last two, but are also not safe yet and have also been in free scoring form, with 5 from 6 ending "over", scoring or conceding three goals in four of those. These two produced a 5 goal thriller in the reverse fixture and I do not see this being any less prolific.
5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.84 + asian line.... bigger available in places.
PREMIERSHIP CHELSEA - MANCHESTER UNITED
There is not much point in discussing these two in great detail, we all know them very well. This could turn out to be a title decider, certainly United will think that they have it in the bag, if they avoid defeat. However, both will also have one eye on their Champions League semi-final second legs, coming up in midweek.
I think that, given the quote, we have to take a little on the Blues, who have not lost at home since I last wore short trousers to school. They will be boosted by the return of the influential Michael Essien from suspension, Frank Lampard is likely to miss out, following the sad death of his mother, but he was ineffectual at Anfield in midweek in any case and Michael Ballack, usually raises his game, when FL is missing.
United have not scored at Stamford Bridge in six visits and Ronaldo continues to disappoint in the really big games. I have no doubt that they will come looking for the draw and see that result as the only downside.
5 points Chelsea -1/4 ball 2.18 asian line.
Dijon won for us yesterday, looking at all the blog selections, since December 19th, which is a shade over four months, I have given 192 selections, 108 winners (56.25% strike rate) and they have produced a profit of 166.32 points, on total stakes of 1090 points, which is a ROI of 15.26 %.
I have written previews of seven football matches on the email service today and have given two very strong bets. I not put either of those on the blog today, but will add a couple of the other selections later in the day.
As always, the only way to receive all my output, is by subscribing to the daily newsletter, details are on the website www.predictuwin.com .
I was planning to put a full preview of the WPT World Championship final table, basic details are a couple of posts down, put have simply run out of time. In a nutshell, I expect David Chiu to go close, but am not putting him up as a bet. The four time WSOP bracelet winner is very likely to bide his time, until the two ultra aggressive chip leaders, do some damage, either to theirselves, or the short stacks, he also has a great position, with Gus Hansen to his left. Chiu is a juicy looking 4.33 with Stan James, which is far bigger than in my "book".
Friday, April 25, 2008
I like the home team a lot here, Dijon are unbeaten in three very tough fixtures and have managed to get a three point cushion over the relegation zone. However, they cannot afford to ease off, with the team immediately below them in the table, Niort, who they travel to meet next week, facing an easy looking trip to basement side Gueugnon.
Guincamp have drawn their last 4 starts and are probably safe, any remaining doubts could be put firmly to bed next week, when they host Gueugnon, so no need to overly extend themselves this evening.
6.5 points Dijon -1/4 ball 1.84 asian line.
I am just finishing off today's email and am previewing four of today's matches and might add another early selection from the weekend fixtures, full details of how to join "the team" can be found on the main website www.predictuwin.com.
Elsewhere, we are at the quarter final stage of the Monte Carlo tennis and it is a classy looking field, here is the line up, in draw order.....
From a total of 545 players, who all paid $25k to enter, we are down to just six in the WPT World Championship, taking place at the Bellagio. Day 4 leader Amir Vahedi bubbled the final table, finishing in 7th spot and earning a little over $237k. The remaining runners, there are no riders, although I know little about their personal life's, are guaranteed almost $234k. Although ,with this top heavy payout structure offering $923k for third place, $1.7m for second and a whopping $3.389m to the winner, all will have far loftier targets.
Today is a well earned rest day, I am sure that there will be odds available for the final six and I will be returning later, with a run down on the field, where I have, as always, some strong views.
Chip count .....
1 Gus Hansen 8.57m chips Seat 2
2 Cory Carroll 6.67m Seat 5
3 David Chiu 6.05m Seat 3
4 John Roveto 2.72m Seat 1
5 Tommy Le 1.95m Seat 4
6 Jeff King 1.305m Seat 6
Thursday, April 24, 2008
GLASGOW RANGERS - FIORENTINA
Rangers have some severe injury/ suspension problems and could be without 7-9 squad players this evening, they will be especially short of options in midfield. However, they are very hard to beat at Ibrox, where they have recorded some fine European results. At least central defender Carlos Cuellar is fit and, Scotland's player of the year, will be given the task of stifling main visiting threat Adrian Mutu, who is back to his best and has been in stunning form this season, this will be a fascinating match up, between two players at the top of their game.
I like the draw, in a match where both will be happy with the result. Rangers are confident in their ability to snatch an away goal in Europe and have already progressed twice by that route, this campaign. The pitch is Glasgow is in very poor condition and will not be conducive to flowing football.
4.5 points draw 3.15 exchanges.
Very exciting , aggressive day's play, with more action than a Stallone film festival, at the end of which, we were down to just 17 players, play ended when Scott Epstein and Mark Newhouse, were eliminated at the same time, on different tables, which is why we have one empty seat.
Amir Vahedi is our new leader, we lost two previous champions fairly early and consecutively, with 2004 victor Martin de Knijff out in 39th, after being crippled by David Tran and he was followed by last year's winner Carlos Mortensen, in 38th position.
David Grey who's battling qualities we discussed yesterday, was very unlucky to go out in 22nd spot, when his aces failed to hold up against Tom Dwan's pair of nines. Durrr (pictured) is very handily placed and has a fantastic chance of going all the way, but this is really going to take some winning.
Everyone remaining is guaranteed $105k, but nobody will be happy with that, having come this far, especially with a top prize of $3.389m .Play will continue today until we are down to just six players, currently the blinds are set at 15k-30k, with a 4k ante, tomorrow is a rest day, with the warriors still standing, returning on Saturday to decide the new champion.
Chip counts and table position.........
1. Kenny Tran - 1,442,000
2. Amir Vahedi - 3,907,000
3. Bryan Devonshire - 984,000
4. Jeff King - 1,903,000
5. Tommy Le - 1,950,000
6. Cory Carroll - 1,346,000
7. John Roveto - 556,000
8. Jeff Shulman - 473,000
1. Karga Holt - 1,500,000
2. David Chiu - 1,742,000
3. Tom "Durrrr" Dwan - 2,874,000
4. Andrew Black - 411,000
5. Gus Hansen - 2,929,000
6. David Tran - 2,543,000
7. Nick Binger - 701,000
8. Robert Mizrachi - 1,079,000
9. Michael Gracz - 1,674,000
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
I am amazed that no bookmaker has priced up the WPT World Championship, with so many poker players on the planet, someone showing a little enterprise could have stolen a march on the competition and got a little publicity into the bargain. Also, with no one other odds available, they could have bet to a huge profit margin, just like the old days !
We are down to the final sixteen, well actually seventeen, I cannot wait any longer,for the Robredo match to finish, in the Monte Carlo tennis the first major clay court tournament of the season, at least on the european swing. Thursday's line up in draw order, looks a lot like this ...............
FEDERER - MONFILS
I have put a preview of tonight's Barcelona- Manchester United (hence the photo of John Wayne Rooney) game on the website, which has not moved and can be found, as always at www.predictuwin.com. Check it out in the free to view blog section, actually the whole site is free to view . Only the emails cost money and they are very inexpensive !
I have previewed three events on the email service today, putting up four selections, intending to post one of them on the blog later, so please check back.
Play has ended on Day 3 at the WPT World Championship event taking place at the Bellagio. We are now down to just 55 players, all of whom are guaranteed $40k, but most,will only have eyes on the top prize of $3.4 m.
Biggest mover of the day was Gus Hansen, who increased his chip stack by almost 2m and he leads the way, Cory Carroll in second spot, added around 1.5m chips to his impressive pile and is flying the flag for Canada, who have been dominating recent big events.
Former champion Martin de Knijff performed best of the big names at the top of the day 2 leaderboard and holds a healthy 856k stack, which sees him in 4th position. This is clearly a structure that suits him well.
This is starting to develope into a classic tournament and the cream is rising to the top, other big movers were four time WSOP bracelet winner David Chiu, winner of over 1m chips yesterday and internet star Tom "Durrr" Dwan,who increased his stack eight fold and is up to 6th place.
Yesterday's leader Robert "The Grinder" Mizrachi, trod water for much of the day, but is definitely not out of things with 701k.
However, my vote for performance of the day, goes to David Grey, the New York native, a cash game specialist and two time WSOP bracelet winner, went into the day 187th of 188 players, with just 25k in front of him. That gave him few options, but he hung in there and is now 33rd of the 55 remaining, with a stack of 354k, one double up, would take him past Mizrachi, which proves the old "chip and a chair" adage.
End of Day 3 Chip Counts
|First Name||Last Name||Chip Count||Table||Seat|
|1||Gus||Hansen||2,246,000||Table 60||Seat 2|
|2||Cory||Carroll||1,900,000||Table 54||Seat 5|
|3||David||Chiu||1,231,000||Table 60||Seat 1|
|4||Martin||Deknijff||856,000||Table 55||Seat 1|
|5||Nicholas||Binger||829,000||Table 60||Seat 6|
|6||Tom||Dwan||805,000||Table 62||Seat 6|
|7||Peter||Neff||781,000||Table 54||Seat 8|
|8||Jeff||Shulman||771,000||Table 62||Seat 5|
|9||Mark||Newhouse||770,000||Table 54||Seat 1|
|10||Robert||Mizrachi||701,000||Table 62||Seat 7|
|11||Vadim||Trincher||699,000||Table 53||Seat 2|
|12||Amir||Vehedi||696,000||Table 62||Seat 4|
|13||Steve||Wong||662,000||Table 52||Seat 3|
|14||Nhan||Le||605,000||Table 60||Seat 4|
|15||Michael||Gracz||551,000||Table 53||Seat 8|
|16||David||Tran||550,000||Table 54||Seat 3|
|17||Eric||Richards||539,000||Table 61||Seat 3|
|18||Jonathan||Kalmar||526,000||Table 53||Seat 3|
|19||Jared||Okun||523,000||Table 61||Seat 4|
|20||John||Celii||515,000||Table 61||Seat 2|
|21||Soheil||Shamseddin||506,000||Table 60||Seat 7|
|22||Men||Nguyen||499,000||Table 52||Seat 7|
|23||John||Hoang||481,000||Table 60||Seat 5|
|24||James||Calderaro||478,000||Table 55||Seat 7|
|25||Andrew||Black||476,000||Table 55||Seat 4|
|26||Bryan||Devonshire||465,000||Table 53||Seat 1|
|27||Karga||Holt||448,000||Table 53||Seat 7|
|28||Scott||Epstein||447,000||Table 61||Seat 5|
|29||Steve||Billirakis||432,000||Table 52||Seat 6|
|30||Matthew||Vengrin||423,000||Table 55||Seat 5|
|31||Eric||Kesselman||364,000||Table 54||Seat 4|
|32||Kenny||Tran||362,000||Table 62||Seat 8|
|33||David||Grey||354,000||Table 62||Seat 1|
|34||Thomas||McCormick||341,000||Table 54||Seat 2|
|35||Matthew||Giannetti||326,000||Table 53||Seat 4|
|36||T J||Cloutier||321,000||Table 52||Seat 5|
|37||JC||Tran||303,000||Table 61||Seat 8|
|38||Gary||Gibbs||296,000||Table 60||Seat 8|
|39||Noah||Schwartz||270,000||Table 52||Seat 1|
|40||David||Kim||256,000||Table 55||Seat 3|
|41||Carlos||Mortensen||256,000||Table 53||Seat 5|
|42||Abdo||Lattouf||246,000||Table 55||Seat 8|
|43||Keith||Gipson||230,000||Table 62||Seat 3|
|44||Jeff||King||226,000||Table 55||Seat 2|
|45||Mats||Rahmn||220,000||Table 61||Seat 1|
|46||Danny||Wong||218,000||Table 55||Seat 6|
|47||John||Kincaid||214,000||Table 53||Seat 6|
|48||Isabel||Mercier||207,000||Table 54||Seat 6|
|49||John||Roveto||181,000||Table 61||Seat 6|
|50||Jayde||Tran||179,000||Table 52||Seat 4|
|51||Joe||Sebok||139,000||Table 62||Seat 2|
|52||Brian||Rast||114,000||Table 60||Seat 3|
|53||Thomas||Schneider||92,000||Table 54||Seat 7|
|54||Tim||Phan||69,000||Table 61||Seat 7|
|55||Zvi||Shiff||22,000||Table 52|| Seat 2|
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
I very rarely use the blog for reflections on my private life, but this is simply too good to pass.
A relation of mine, who is 83 years old, virtually house bound and registered blind, received a letter from a debt collection agency, on behalf of one of the major mobile phone companies. Demanding immediate payment of almost £1,000, a huge sum of money to him.
Obviously, this was a case of fraud/identity theft, it happens all too often,unfortunately. Not sure quite what credit checks the mobile phone company do, as the surname was spelt slightly wrong, no other correspondence had ever been received relating to this and he owns neither a bank, nor credit card.
To then let a "new" account, apparently the contract was taken out in January, opened by an octogenarian, who has never previously pocessed a mobile, run up a bill of £1k is both strange and not a little irresponsible, but fair enough.
When I say, he has never owned one, he is not even 100% sure what one is !
We called the debt collection company on his behalf and despite some pretty rude treatment, they agreed to stop any action, but were adamant that we had to call the mobile company's fraud department. This is the unbelievable part, you call them, the phone is answered and you choose an option, so you are connected, then the internal line just rings and rings. First time 28 minutes ... no answer, second time 22 minutes and so on, if you have called using one of their own phones, there is a set charge per call, everyone else , remember, no one from my family has any dealings with this company, has to pay a premium rate per minute ! This, to report a fraud, that they are responsible for, it is simply unreal !
This was bad enough, so two hours out of my/our life and not a little expense, but when we finally speak to someone in the fraud department, they are incredibly rude, agressive and offer no apology for any of this.
This is customer service at it's very best, I will not name them (anagram of 2O) or the buffoon I spoke to in their fraud department, the biggest fraud is the cost of phoning them !
Back to my day job.
Since sending this selection overnight to subscribers, the level ball odds have fallen to 1.70, however, if you want to chance the straight win, the hosts can still be backed at circa 2.48 on the exchanges.
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH
HAMPTON & RICHMOND- LEWES
This is a "friendly", hosts are booked for third spot and can look forward to the post season and the play-off lottery. Lewes won the title on Saturday and will be in the Premiership next season, no doubt it would have been party time on the south coast and we cannot expect them to be at their best this evening. Several fringe players are likely to be given an outing, though I doubt that their headaches will have been any less severe.
Everyone likes to beat the champions and no doubt Hampton, who received a huge boost with manager Alan Devonshire, signing a contract extension, he has been described as the best boss in their history, will be similarly motivated. His team can complete a rare double, having won the reverse fixture 2-1.
6 points Hampton level ball 1.93 asian line.
First Name Last Name Chip Count Table Seat
1 Robert Mizrachi 523,200 Table 46 Seat 6
2 Jayde Tran 406,700 Table 59 Seat 5
3 Eric Richards 399,500 Table 51 Seat 1
4 Bryan Devonshire 393,400 Table 64 Seat 2
5 Cory Carroll 384,700 Table 57 Seat 6
6 John Celii 376,800 Table 61 Seat 9
7 Carlos Mortensen 371,600 Table 49 Seat 2
8 Kenny Tran 367,400 Table 60 Seat 9
9 Michael Gracz 364,800 Table 52 Seat 3
10 J Onathan Kalmar 333,900 Table 48 Seat 6
11 Marcel Luske 325,200 Table 52 Seat 8
12 Steve Wong 306,600 Table 54 Seat 8
13 Saifuddin Ahmad 306,500 Table 59 Seat 1
14 Soheil Shamseddin 297,500 Table 49 Seat 7
15 Philip Galfond 295,700 Table 47 Seat 8
16 John Hoang 293,700 Table 49 Seat 8
17 Mikael Thuritz 291,200 Table 50 Seat 9
18 Thomas Schneider 288,000 Table 60 Seat 3
19 Michael Katz 284,700 Table 62 Seat 4
20 Richard Fohrenbach 281,900 Table 58 Seat 3
21 Rhynie Campbell 281,100 Table 54 Seat 7
22 Joe Sebok 278,100 Table 46 Seat 5
23 Anna Wroblewski 277,300 Table 54 Seat 2
24 Martin Deknijff 276,100 Table 46 Seat 3
25 Charles Kelley 273,600 Table 60 Seat 8
26 Nhan Le 272,000 Table 54 Seat 9
27 Gus Hansen 264,200 Table 55 Seat 9
28 Josh Arieh 248,700 Table 59 Seat 4
29 Tam Hang 244,800 Table 48 Seat 9
30 Jeff Bayles 242,300 Table 47 Seat 2
31 John Kincaid 226,800 Table 64 Seat 1
32 Karga Holt 224,300 Table 60 Seat 7
33 Edwin Ting 215,000 Table 52 Seat 5
34 Praz Bansi 214,200 Table 61 Seat 2
35 Joseph Cassidy 214,200 Table 48 Seat 8
36 Greg Mueller 212,700 Table 56 Seat 6
37 James Calderaro 210,200 Table 58 Seat 6
38 Eugene Todd 210,000 Table 57 Seat 9
39 Vadim Trincher 209,700 Table 48 Seat 3
40 Andreas Krause 207,600 Table 51 Seat 5
41 Jeff King 203,000 Table 58 Seat 4
42 Yan Chen 203,000 Table 58 Seat 5
43 Gary Margadonna 202,100 Table 47 Seat 3
44 Nikolay Losev 201,500 Table 50 Seat 5
45 Jc Tran 201,300 Table 49 Seat 1
46 Abraham Mosseri 197,700 Table 57 Seat 3
47 Scott Epstein 194,900 Table 63 Seat 7
48 William Pilossoph 192,500 Table 64 Seat 8
49 Nicolas Levi 192,200 Table 59 Seat 9
50 Tim Phan 186,400 Table 53 Seat 4
51 Dario Minieri 186,000 Table 44 Seat 3
52 David Chiu 184,200 Table 53 Seat 3
53 Isabel Mercier 184,000 Table 63 Seat 1
54 Eric Kesselman 180,300 Table 62 Seat 6
55 Mark Seif 180,000 Table 63 Seat 3
56 William Baxter 176,600 Table 48 Seat 1
57 Matthew Vengrin 172,000 Table 61 Seat 5
58 Padraig Parkinson 170,700 Table 52 Seat 2
59 Paul Chauderson 168,000 Table 63 Seat 9
60 Brian Rast 163,700 Table 50 Seat 3
61 John Esposito 162,000 Table 58 Seat 7
62 Jonathan Westra 161,700 Table 59 Seat 7
63 Barny Boatman 161,500 Table 53 Seat 7
64 Steve Billirakis 156,600 Table 49 Seat 4
65 Daniel Negreanu 154,600 Table 54 Seat 3
66 Benjamin Springer 152,800 Table 53 Seat 8
67 T J Cloutier 152,000 Table 48 Seat 5
68 Francois Safieddine 151,800 Table 52 Seat 7
69 Herman Zango 150,300 Table 52 Seat 1
70 Gary Gibbs 149,300 Table 49 Seat 3
71 Men Nguyen 145,800 Table 63 Seat 6
72 Roy Winston 144,000 Table 62 Seat 1
73 Gavin Smith 142,300 Table 49 Seat 6
74 Keith Gipson 142,100 Table 54 Seat 6
75 David Tran 141,500 Table 47 Seat 4
76 Dino French 141,200 Table 59 Seat 8
77 Amir Vehedi 141,100 Table 50 Seat 2
78 Hyon Kim 139,400 Table 50 Seat 4
79 Thomas Wahlroos 137,400 Table 61 Seat 6
80 Mike Sexton 135,100 Table 51 Seat 6
81 Michael Sohayegh 133,900 Table 51 Seat 2
82 Rock Cloutier 132,600 Table 58 Seat 2
83 Zvi Shiff 131,000 Table 55 Seat 8
84 Matthew Giannetti 130,700 Table 57 Seat 4
85 John Hillman 130,000 Table 55 Seat 1
86 Andrew Shack 129,400 Table 51 Seat 3
87 Philippe Rouas 124,700 Table 64 Seat 3
88 Kathy Liebert 123,300 Table 60 Seat 5
89 Mats Rahmn 123,000 Table 51 Seat 4
90 Narendra Banwari 122,700 Table 52 Seat 6
91 Matthew Hyman 122,400 Table 50 Seat 8
92 Cary Katz 121,800 Table 53 Seat 9
93 John Monnette 121,400 Table 61 Seat 1
94 Tim Chauser 120,700 Table 57 Seat 8
95 Abdo Lattouf 120,000 Table 64 Seat 7
96 Noah Schwartz 117,200 Table 45 Seat 7
97 Jared Hamby 116,500 Table 53 Seat 5
98 Vivek Rajkumar 115,600 Table 62 Seat 8
99 Vincent Procopio 114,500 Table 44 Seat 4
100 Hevad Khan 113,400 Table 55 Seat 7
101 Phil Ivey 111,700 Table 45 Seat 8
102 Barry Greenstein 111,100 Table 64 Seat 4
103 James Dawick 110,200 Table 52 Seat 9
104 David Ulliot 110,000 Table 45 Seat 5
105 David Benyamine 110,000 Table 44 Seat 6
106 Ray Coburn 109,900 Table 60 Seat 1
107 Allie Prescott 109,200 Table 51 Seat 8
108 Samuel Hiatt 107,300 Table 45 Seat 3
109 John Strzemp 107,000 Table 58 Seat 8
110 Vincent Shaw 106,300 Table 53 Seat 1
111 Alex Jacob 105,800 Table 64 Seat 6
112 Steven Weinstein 105,300 Table 53 Seat 6
113 Keith Tilston 104,600 Table 47 Seat 6
114 Andrew Robl 102,400 Table 62 Seat 2
115 Nicholas Binger 101,600 Table 54 Seat 1
116 Jordan Morgan 100,600 Table 56 Seat 7
117 Karl Tretter 98,900 Table 63 Seat 8
118 Tom Dwan 98,800 Table 59 Seat 6
119 Thayer Rasmussen 98,300 Table 52 Seat 4
120 Tony Grappo 96,800 Table 55 Seat 5
121 Sudhakara Kattamuri 96,500 Table 44 Seat 8
122 Jared Okun 96,400 Table 64 Seat 5
123 David Kim 96,000 Table 51 Seat 9
124 James Van Alstyne 95,700 Table 63 Seat 4
125 Robert Wisiak 95,000 Table 49 Seat 5
126 Chad Brown 95,000 Table 47 Seat 5
127 Bob Stupak 94,200 Table 58 Seat 1
128 Champie Douglas 93,100 Table 56 Seat 3
129 Jordan Rich 92,800 Table 56 Seat 5
130 James Mettler 92,700 Table 46 Seat 4
131 Joseph Risi 92,500 Table 55 Seat 2
132 Parviz Razavian 91,600 Table 59 Seat 3
133 Dave Redlin 90,300 Table 54 Seat 5
134 Chris Lee 89,600 Table 61 Seat 8
135 Mark Appleman 89,000 Table 47 Seat 1
136 Kristy Gazes 88,700 Table 57 Seat 5
137 Jeff Shulman 88,300 Table 56 Seat 8
138 Quinn Do 88,100 Table 46 Seat 7
139 Andrew Black 86,800 Table 61 Seat 4
140 Mark Newhouse 86,500 Table 62 Seat 5
141 Steve Brecher 85,900 Table 55 Seat 6
142 Peter Neff 84,000 Table 59 Seat 2
143 Tim West 83,400 Table 44 Seat 2
144 Raffi King 82,300 Table 57 Seat 1
145 Ron Levi 81,800 Table 46 Seat 8
146 Erik Seidel 80,300 Table 47 Seat 7
147 Mike Watell 78,300 Table 62 Seat 3
148 Alan Smurfit 77,800 Table 56 Seat 2
149 Wil Wilkinson 75,600 Table 45 Seat 9
150 Art Duncan 73,700 Table 51 Seat 7
151 Burton Boutin 73,400 Table 45 Seat 2
152 Humberto Brenes 72,500 Table 55 Seat 4
153 Dan Harrington 69,400 Table 56 Seat 9
154 Ray Henson 69,100 Table 60 Seat 4
155 Jonathan Aguiar 68,200 Table 46 Seat 1
156 John Juanda 67,500 Table 62 Seat 7
157 Thomas Mccormick 64,100 Table 49 Seat 9
158 Mike Matusow 62,900 Table 55 Seat 3
159 Shawn Cunix 61,900 Table 44 Seat 7
160 Andrew Pierz 60,100 Table 54 Seat 4
161 Herb Montalbano 57,700 Table 48 Seat 2
162 Eric Lynch 56,000 Table 47 Seat 9
163 Daniel Shak 55,600 Table 50 Seat 6
164 Ross Boatman 55,000 Table 56 Seat 4
165 Stan Jablonski 50,400 Table 46 Seat 9
166 Jimmy Dowda 48,500 Table 62 Seat 9
167 Will Failla 48,500 Table 45 Seat 4
168 Doyle Brunson 48,300 Table 63 Seat 5
169 Fred Berger 45,400 Table 61 Seat 3
170 Lars Bonding 44,300 Table 48 Seat 4
171 Matthew Brady 44,200 Table 50 Seat 1
172 Scott Mayfield 43,400 Table 46 Seat 2
173 Michael Mckenna 42,100 Table 53 Seat 2
174 John Roveto 38,900 Table 50 Seat 7
175 Scotty Nguyen 38,100 Table 56 Seat 1
176 Dewey Tomko 36,600 Table 48 Seat 7
177 Tad Jurgens 36,500 Table 60 Seat 2
178 Gary Horn 36,200 Table 60 Seat 6
179 Steven O'Dwyer 35,100 Table 64 Seat 9
180 Heather Sue Mercer 34,400 Table 58 Seat 9
181 William Klein 34,100 Table 61 Seat 7
182 Grant Lang 32,400 Table 45 Seat 1
183 Eugene Katchalov 30,900 Table 63 Seat 2
184 Chris Grigorian 29,200 Table 44 Seat 1
185 Nam Le 29,000 Table 57 Seat 2
186 Danny Wong 26,700 Table 44 Seat 5
187 David Grey 25,300 Table 45 Seat 6
188 Cristiano Blanco 22,800 Table 57 Seat 7
What is claimed to be the greatest field in poker history, coughed up $25k each at the Bellagio to compete for the title of WPT World Champion and a first prize of almost $3.4m.
Surprisingly, that is quite a bit down on last year, when the winner, Carlos Mortensen walked away with a cool $3.97m. Amazingly, he is firmly in contention again, lying in 5th place, if he was to take the title again, it would be a stunning achievement, especially as he already has a WSOP main event to his name.
We are down to around 200 players, with the 51-100th place finishers guaranteed $40k, or around 1.60 to your money for 3-4 days work , a hard way to make an easy living !
Chip leader is Robert "The Grinder" Mizrachi with around 523k in chips, all totals are rounded up and are unofficial figures, so there are bound to be a few small errors, but will give us a feel for how the tournament is unfolding. Along with Mortensen, we have to give another "big up" to 2004 champion Martin de Knijff, he "only"picked up $2.73 for his victory four years ago, so, unlike the Spaniard, he will not be too disappointed with the potential $3.4m pay day !
Selected chip counts....
1) Robert Mizrachi 523k
2) Bryan Devonshire 393k
3) Cory Carroll 385k
4) John Celii 377k
5) Carlos Mortensen 372k
9) Kenny Tran 295k
13) Joe Sebok 278k
15) Marcel Luske 277k
16) Martin de Knijff 276k
20) Gus Hansen 246k
Further down the field are Devilfish 195k, Isabelle Mercier 184k, Padraig Parkinson 184k and Daniel Negreanu 155k. Average stack is around 136, 250 and below that number we find superstar Phil Ivey 136k, Mike Sexton 135k, Barny Boatman 116k, Hevad Khan 113k, Barry Greenstein 111k , Tom "Durrr" Dwan and Andy Black 87k.
With 80k or less, are a host of star names, including Seidel, Seed, Juanda, Harrington, Fischman, Matusow, Brenes, Benyamine, Scotty and the biggest name of all Doyle Brunson.
Lots of poker still to be played and it will be fun to follow the action, which you can do at www.worldpokertour.com
Must say that I am really looking forward to this match, European nights at Anfield are very special and the atmosphere will be electric.
Cannot say that I am in the greatest of form, coming off maybe the worst 2-3 weeks of my (long) career. However, I think that the ship has been steadied, with a small, if unspectacular profit over the last three weeks and it gives us something to build on.
Looking at the blog selections, since December 19th, which is a shade over four months, I have given 189 selections, 105 winners (55.56%) and they have produced a profit of 142.3 points, on total stakes of 1073 points, that is a ROI of 13.26 %, a lot of fun and twelve times what you would get from a bank !
The only outstanding bet is 2 points Zenit St Petersburg in the UEFA Cup at circa 21.0, so good value with that selection also.
Those figures are pretty impressive anyway, but more so, when you consider that they include such a dismal sequence of results.
I am not sure that it will be possible to post anything on the blog today, one selection has already started. For various reasons, I do not want to reproduce the CL preview in a public forum and one of the other two selections, has already been well backed, so options are limited. However, I will try to do my best.
As always, the only way to receive all the selections is by subscribing to the email service, full details are on the website www.predictuwin.com .
Regular readers interested in joining the service, can send me an email via the "contact us" button on the site and receive a special introductory rate offer.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE NAC BREDA - NEC NIJMEGEN
Breda have had a wonderful end to their campaign and can look ahead and prepare for their Champions League play-off matches, they are going to finish third whatever happens today and have nothing to play for. Their coach is well aware of the situation and is paranoid about collecting any injuries. He is resting four key players in Lurling, Stam, ten Rouwelaar and Molhoek and others are under orders to take things easy.
NEC need a point to ensure a play-off spot of their own and are in fantastic form. They are unbeaten in eight, with seven wins, including in this sequence, games against PSV, Heerenveen and Feyenoord. Away from home they are looking for an amazing sixth straight win and against an unmotivated opponent, we have to back them to do so, even though the draw, is a concern. The away coach has pledged to go for the win, stating that playing for a draw, is not their forte.
6.5 points Nijmegen -1/2 ball 3.25 general quote.... 3.50 is avaiable in places.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
ENGLAND PREMIERSHIP FULHAM - LIVERPOOL
Fulham finally broke their away duck last week, in the 2-0 hammering of Reading, I say hammering because a four or five goal win, would not have been unfair. It gives them a chance of survival, they sit 4 points behind Birmingham, who they have still to host and who can expect few favours from their derby game, with big rivals, Aston Villa tomorrow.
Pool are 5 clear of Everton, who look to have given up the chase, with this game in hand.They only really have eyes for their Champions League tie with Chelsea on Tuesday and look sure to rest a host of key players, including Torres and Gerrard. Hosts are looking to complete a hat-trick of home wins over the Merseysiders and will ceratinly not lack motivation.
4.5 points Fulham level ball 2.39 asian line.
CHAMPIONSHIP QPR - CHARLTON ATHLETIC
Vistors are almost out of the race for a play-off spot, all they can do is try to win their three remaining fixtures and hope, that is enough. Rangers are a classy outfit and will probably be favourites to win the Championship next season and must go close. They will be happy to entertain their fans and have been involved in a few high scoring games, with 10 of their last 15 ending "over". Charlton have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 11. I feel that both will score and see plenty of value in the "over", in what should be a fun game to watch, so, 0-0 it is then !
5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line.... now 1.83 !
I have previewed six football matches on the email service today, five domestic games and one from mainland Europe. Also taken a look at the Verizon Heritage golf tournament from South Carolina, where I have given a selection at 34.0.
Going to post a couple of these on the blog later today and will have the first online within the next hour.Please check back.
Friday, April 18, 2008
STADE DE REIMS - STADE BRESTOIS
Two typical Ligue 2 sides here, both happier at home, than on their travels. Brest are secure in mid table and have very little to play for, we can expect them to save any extra effort for the benefit of their own supporters.
Reims have lost just 3 of their 17 home starts, winning 9 and lying six points clear of the drop zone, need one more win to secure their safety. I feel that, if they take a look at their remaining fixtures, which of course they will, the hosts will want the three points this evening. They complete their campaign with four games against top 7 sides, including facing the top two teams in Ligue 2.
Reims have won the last two h2h meetings here at the Auguste -Delaune stadium, where they are traditionally strong and this looks a strong home selection to me.
5.5 points Reims -1/2 ball 2.20 general quote.
ADO den HAAG- FC VOLENDAM
Last round weekend in the Netherlands, with the Jupiler League concluding this evening.
Volendam tend to spend one season in Eeredivisie every 4-5 years and are just about bang on track, having been relegated in 2003-4. They are currently top of the table on goal difference, with Waalwijk directly competing with them for the sole automatic promotion spot, facing an "easy" looking home game against lowly Fortuna Sittard. Therefore, Volendam will have to look for the win, that will secure their return to the top flight.
They can hardly lack confidence, having won their last 7 matches, scoring 21 goals, they are also looking for a 5th straight road win, having registered 13 goals in winning the previous four.
ADO have secured a play-off spot, but could face one less post season round, if they win this evening and MVV lose. However, again MVV face a far easier task in hosting struggling Cambuur, so that seems unlikely and we can hardly compare the two motivations, or current form, with ADO not having won in three starts.It is all down to the visitors and they cannot ask for more, than to have the destiny of such a big prize, in their own hands.
6.5 points Volendam -1/2 ball 2.0 general quote.
I have previewed two matches today, they should really be kept exclusively for subscribers, but I will post them on here shortly before kick off, both start at 20.00 cet, they will mainly be for information only purposes, as each has already been well backed.
Will have plenty on the blog over the weekend , so please check back.
As always, Good Luck !
Thursday, April 17, 2008
EVERTON - CHELSEA
Chelsea's title hopes were dealt a devastating blow, with Emile Heskey's late equaliser for Wigan on Monday. However, despite what everyone is saying, the race is not yet over and four wins for the London side, will still leave Manchester United requiring seven points from three remaining fixtures, which is not a "given".
Everton have had a very long season and with their high work rate/ethic, appear to have run out of steam and were outplayed by Birmingham at the weekend. They have big doubts about Osman and Arteta, the last named would be sorely missed, as with Tim Cahill out for the season, the midfield would be almost totally bare of creativity.
They will be looking to end a real bogey, having not beaten Chelsea in 20 meetings, nine at Goodison Park.
The visitors will be without Lampard and Drogba, but came here for the League Cup second leg, without both, plus also Ballack and came away with a 1-0 win, in a game that Everton were very motivated to win. Joe Cole scored the winner that night and, at circa 4.50 to score anytime, looks decent value to do likewise this evening. However, I will stick with Chelsea to get a hard earned win and prolong the title race, they definitely do not want to see the trophy handed to United at Stamford Bridge, in their next league outing, that would be too tough to stomach.
6 points Chelsea -1/2 ball 2.20 asian line.
WESTON-SUPER-MARE - MAIDENHEAD UNITED
We backed Maidenhead recently and unfortunately, they let us down, of course, next time out they met a better side and won 5-0 ! I feel that we can take another chance on them this evening, in a vital "six pointer".
Hosts are 3rd from bottom and a win would take them out of the drop zone. However, they are have been in freefall for many months and without a good start to their season, would already be relegated. They have just a single win in 14 starts and two in 24 outings, if that was not enough, this is their 3rd start in just 6 days, which is an horrendous schedule for part time players.
United are two places above the relegation zone, but just one point above WSM, with a trip to high flying Havant at the weekend, this is a game Maidenhead cannot afford to lose. Yes, a draw would not be too bad and if, this is quoted on the asian line a little later, level ball would be a good choice, but as I write, this is not offered.
Having said that, now that the goals have come, I am happy to take a chance on them getting the three points that would almost ensure their safety for another season.
5 points Maidenhead -1/2 ball 3.0 Bet 365/ 2.80 + elsewhere.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
HUDDERSFIELD TOWN - LEEDS UNITED
This is a Yorkshire derby and the visitors cannot expect any favours from their near neighbours. Having said that, Town are not in the best of shape, are without a win in three and two key players in Frank Sinclair and Phil Jevons. For Leeds United this is a massive week, tomorrow they are expected to learn the ruling regarding their 15 point deduction appeal. They currently lie 12 points behind Carlisle, who hold second spot, which guarantees automatic promotion, with this game in hand. Therefore, they could close to nine with a win, my understanding is ,that they are very confident of getting at least 5 points back, which would reduce the deficit to just four. With a superior goal difference and their final three fixtures against teams in the bottom 8, this would give them a live chance of promotion, without suffering the play-off lottery. This scenario would put a lot of pressure on Carlisle, who entertain Southend, who are a team in great form, at the weekend. I expect a very motivated Leeds side to do their part this evening.
6.5 points Leeds United -1/2 ball asian line 2.20.
OLYMPIQUE LYON - METZ
The top team in Ligue 1 hosts the side, holding up the other 19 clubs, with a massive 50 points between them in the table. However, this is the cup and whilst Lyon are still battling for the title and face a tough trip to relegation threatened Strasbourg at the weekend, Metz are long since resigned to a return to Ligue 2 and are focused solely on the cup.
OL are not, by their very high standards in the best of form and have a poor history in this competition, which they have not won for 35 years. Metz have saved their best performances for the cup this season and can play without fear this evening. To be honest, their odds look huge and we have to chance a little on the straight win, as well as getting the big handicap start.
1 points Metz to win 15.0 exchanges
5 points Metz +1.5 goals asian line 2.08.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Goodness knows how PSG have got into such a mess once again this season. They are outside the drop zone on goal difference and have three "six pointers" coming up next, with games against Caen, Auxerre and Toulouse, where they can expect few favours. Nice, is about as good as it gets at present, they have won only once in eleven starts and have little to play for. Mario Yepes returns to the centre of the home defence and Pauleta is fit to start, in what is said to be an offensive line up.
5.5 points PSG -1/2 ball 1.95 general quote.
MANCHESTER UNITED - ARSENAL
Looking forward to this, on what promises to be a great day of sport. With Chelsea hosting Wigan tomorrow, United cannot afford to ease off and will be forced forward, with a trip to Stamford Bridge, still to come.
Arsenal will have to look for the win, that could extend their interest in the remaining fixtures. In the first twenty minutes or so at Anfield in midweek, they were unplayable and Liverpool were chasing shadows. Defensively, the problems were there for all to see and they are incapable of keeping a clean sheet at present. Without Vidic, United also look vunerable at the back and I expect to see goals, two previous meetings this season have both produced four and we can look forward to another thriller.
6 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.25 asian line.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE - ROCHDALE
Many Brentford fans, have to get a Bees namecheck in somewhere, consider Dale the best side in the division, considering that Peterborough put nine goals past us, that is quite a compliment !
They have not given up on an automatic promotion spot quite yet and are on fire, winning their last five, scoring 15 goals.
Dagenham are in danger of dropping into the bottom two, after a sequence of no wins in seven and just the one goal in six, that coming against Shrewsbury, another side in poor form. Their mid season rush of goals aside, still not sure where they came from (!), this is a very goal shy side, low on confidence, meeting a team scoring from every position on the pitch. Away win.
6 points Rochdale -1/2 ball 2.20 general quote.
MORECAMBE - CHESTERFIELD
Chesterfield have made a series of loan signings in the last month and the gamble has paid off. They have won their last two, scoring seven times and now lie two points behing Wycombe, who occupy the all important seventh place in the table. With Wanderers facing a daunting trip to MK Dons, this is a real chance to make up the gap.
Morecambe have continuing problems defensively and are looking at a new back four for next season.
5 points Chesterfield -1/2 ball 2.50 general quote.
PETERBOROUGH UNITED - STOCKPORT COUNTY
Boro are unbeaten in 18 games and are easing across the finish line, but with promotion almost within their grasp, they have started to draw a lot of matches. I see County, who are still looking at snatching third spot, as capable of causing an "upset". Quite how much of an upset that would be, is open to debate, as they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 8 of those, they have already won away at MK Dons (first) and Hereford (third), so why not the hat-trick at second placed Boro ? They look a very big price.
4 points Stockport -1/2 ball 4.0 + .... 4.33 available in places.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Thursday, April 10, 2008
ZENIT ST PETERSBURG- BAYER LEVERKUSEN
I rarely back teams carrying a big lead into the second leg of european cup ties, but have to make an exception this evening. Zenit looked so good in Germany, that Bayer, who have now lost four in a row, conceding two or more in each and have a huge Bundesliga match against Stuttgard at the weekend, will have limited ambitions from this game and might just be happy to keep the score respectable. Visiting boss Michael Skibbe admitted that the Russian side are on another level and that he may rest players, under the circumstances we can take a chance on the hosts , at what looks a very decent price. Andrei Arshavin will get another opportunity to show what all the fuss is about and to add another few million to his transfer fee !
5.5 points Zenit -1/2 ball 2.11 asian line.
US MASTERS GOLF
AUGUSTA NATIONAL G.C
I want to take an early look at the US Masters golf tournament, taking place in Augusta, Georgia, starting April 10th.
This is a favourite tournament of mine and one, where I have enjoyed great success in the past.
It is the only major played on the same course every year and with a limited field, including a number of "old timers" and players that can no longer compete, let alone win, the number of potential champions are limited. With the very peculiar demands of Augusta, bringing out the best of the best, we get very few "lucky" winners here and the same names tend to do well, year after year.
Let me begin by saying, that I am very excited by the event this year and feel that there is terrific value to be had in my selection.
There are no guarantees in gambling, but it is a very long time, maybe seven years, since I have been so confident about a bet, everything feels right, including the odds, which are very juicy !
My choice is Retief Goosen, the South African superstar has had a rough old time of it over the last two years, but has returned to form with a vengence in recent weeks, he loves it at Augusta, where he is a winner waiting to happen and we could even argue, that he is "owed" a championship.
Goosen had eye surgery several years ago and developed complications resulting from this recently, he waited and waited for these to clear and his game suffered. Blurred vision was the final straw and he had further laser treatment earlier this year, the immediate improvement, has been remarkable.
In the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Goosen made a steady start, before closing with a weekend 68-68, a total beaten by only four players in the field and he finished in a promising 14th place.
Last week he went to the WGC CA Championship event, to take his place in what was probably the toughest field seen on tour, so far this year. After an opening 71, he played the business end of the tournament in 69-64-68, a total only bettered by Vijay Singh. Retief went very close, almost forced a play-off with all the way winner Geoff Ogilvy, eventually finishing in a tie for second, just a single stroke off the pace.
Under pressure, which he has not really faced for almost a year, Goosen showed all the composure that you would expect, from a two time US Open winner.
In similar conditions to what he is likely to face next week, Goosen bogeyed just one of his last 33 holes, producing 12 birdies. To put that in perspective, on a very demanding course, world number one, Tiger Woods bogeyed three in his final round alone and had "just" eight birdies in his final 38 holes. No golfer in the field made fewer errors and only Vijay more birdies, over the weekend.
On the back of two big finishes, he was bound to be a little tired, yet following a delayed, Monday finish to the WGC event, Goosen was contracted to play in the Tavistock Cup, a team event over the very next two days.
He then went directly to the Zurich Classic in New Orleans, for an early Thursday start, "Goose" was in one of the first groups out and shot a weary, but passable 73. This was a gruelling schedule for any golfer, let alone one that has not been in contention for a year or more. On Friday, he made a lethargic start and, after nine holes of his second round, with the toughest section of the course still to play, he needed three birdies to make the cut. So , what did he do ? What all great champions do, he rolled his sleeves up, hit every green in regulation and got the three strokes required, to play over the weekend.
This might have been his best performance of recent weeks and a sure sign that "the Goose" is back where he belongs.
He is not playing in the Shell Houston Open this coming week and will be resting, ahead of an early trip to Georgia to begin his preparations, this is ideal. Apart from anything else, I have been worried silly that he would win a tournament before The Masters !
What about his record at the Augusta National, well, since 2002, he has finished 2-T13-T13-T3-T3-T2, so, four top three finishes in six appearances, including in each of the last three years.
In 2007, he came into the event on the back of finishing 51st-18th and 58th in three strokeplay tournaments, this time round, he is playing at a much higher level and has recorded a 14th and 2nd place, in infinitely stronger events.Just as importantly, he is confident, fit, healthy and can see !
How he plays this weekend in New Orleans has little meaning, he has played competitive golf for eleven consecutive days, which is a lot. I would not mind if he "worked on his game" and finished with two par rounds, actually, as I type, he is one under after ten holes on Saturday, so, system going well.
I was going to leave it at that, but have decided to update this on Sunday afternoon (30/03). After looking at Retief's stats, he is obviously feeling in good shape, as he has decided to "open up" with the driver, finding an extra 20 metres, out hitting almost everyone on the course and still finding the fairway. This is a certain sign that he feels 100% comfortable with his game and fitness.
I find it hard to even think of a way that Goosen will not be competitive in the Masters, with a little luck, he could don the famous "green jacket" .
Conditions will not make me any less confident, he proved in the WGC event that he can handle and excel on rain sodden fairways and greens. However, if, as normal, we get lightening fast greens at Augusta, very few will be able to handle them as well as "our" man.
At 33-1 outright and especially at 20-1 each way, in the without Tiger Woods market, I think that Goosen is an absolutely sensational wager.
This is far and away the biggest bet I have ever suggested and, win or lose, make no apologies for doing so, this just feels right.
With the place terms, we will have a very nice return if Goosen is in the top six (including Tiger), remember, this is something he has done, with ease, in 67% of his appearances since 2002.
10 points each way Retief Goosen without Woods 21.0 1/4 odds a place 12345.... anything above 17.0 is certainly backable.