Monday, July 30, 2012



Sunday at least ended on a high with the wins for Portuguesa and Cruizero (see below), still not quite sure how Egypt didn't score at least six against New Zealand, they had some 30 attempts on goal, about five of which they performed miracles to miss, as it is very difficult to continually get the ball high or wide of an empty goal from five metres out !

A quiet day today, but I am briefly going to discuss two selections, one football game and an Olympic event, where I think there is a really good price available.

Tomorrow is hugely interesting and providing the odds hold up overnight, I will almost certainly have a maximum two point selection for later in the week then, just the fourth of 2012 ( first three have won @ odds of 2.29, 2.20 and 2.05).


I like the visitors getting a full ball handicap start in this always keenly fought Gothenburg derby, their need is great, sitting as they do at the foot of Allsvenskan, but a point would take them off the bottom and three to within two of the relegation playoff spot. Coach Alexander Axen resigned after the road loss to Malmo and we saw an immediate improvement from them in the return leg of the double header with the league leaders last Monday, they lost 3-2, but led twice and missed a penalty. GAIS are perennial strugglers and usually finish around 10th-11th place, but probably hoped for much more this time round ,after finishing in a giddy 5th spot last season. Key to that huge season, by their normal modest standards were the 24 goals from Mervan Celik and Francisco Wanderson, the pair had contributed just four between them before Celik left last week to join Pescara. Such is the way of things that having not scored in
five, they scored two against the best team in Allsvenskan without their coach and Celik. The visitors have a couple more options tonight, but Jakob Olsson is suspended ( 15 starts -3 goals -1 assist ) and Eric Bassombeng ( 10 starts)  injured. Still no new coaching appointment, but they have experienced duo Kjell Pettersson and Roland Nilsson in temporary charge and the players will certainly perform for them.

Hacken are without Daniel Forsell and Tom Soderberg, the latter might be a big loss from the centre of defence, the hosts have lost three of the four games he has missed this season, conceding nine goals in the process, given that they only allowed 12 goals against in the 12 matches he has started, that might be key.

The hosts need is not so great, but of course they will be up for a derby game, but I have to take a little on GAIS who have not lost in their last three derby games , five if you count the two they also played in pre season. GAIS +1 ball 1.96 aian line.

BRAZIL SERIE A : ( written Sunday)


Hosts are without Alex Silva, Leo and Sandro Silva today, but will have Charles back in the line up and are unbeaten when he has played at least an hour this season. Silva has been out for most of the year and they kept a cleansheet without his fellow central defender Leo last weekend and they have plenty of cover/ alternatives for Silva in the holding role.

Palmeiras are coming off a hugely disappointing home loss to struggling Bahia in midweek and are missing a lot of players today, left sided defender Juninho is suspended and they have lost just one in five when he has played 90 minutes. Also out are seven other players, many have played only minor roles this season, but Valdivia the offensive midfielder has played in both wins and Heleno and Ramos also in the 3-1 defeat of Figuerirense. The other win came against Nautico another very poor traveller and aside from in the cup, the visitors have played poorly against the stronger teams in general this campaign. Cruzeiro should win this, but any value in the odds is marginal, however, in running markets might be interesting, half of the goals Cruizeiro have conceded this season have come in the opening 30 minutes and 66% of goals scored in the last third of games, so it might pay to hold off with any bets until the 20-25 minute mark .


This is a huge match for Portuguesa, they are in the drop zone currently, but the next three starts begining today are very win-able and they will welcome the lower quality of opponent , given that they have faced a host of top clubs recently and put in two solid defensive performances in the last week to draw with Flamengo and Corinthians. Now they have to go for the three points and meet an opponent they know well and one really struggling on the road, these two both came up from B last season, hosts as champions 17 points ahead of Nautico, they have won the last three h2h meetings here scoring ten goals, including four unanswered last year. The visitors are 1-0-5 away from home this campaign and have conceded 16 goals. They arrive without suspended defender Alessandro, who got a red card in midweek, which meant that his team mates also played over 30 minutes with ten men and suffered the humilation of conceding four at home to another struggling team. Nautico have lost two key defensive players Auremir and Derley in the transfer window and are really struggling at the back now, seven allowed in last two, 22 in last ten, We should see goals in this, last three h2h have all gone "over" 3.5, but when the dust has settled , it should result in a home win, with Portuguesa remembering their superiority from last season. 1.25 units Portuguesa -0.75 ball 2.04 asian line. However, the visitors have conceded just one early ( first 15) and Portuguesa not scored any in that same period, so if you are brave and want to wait 10-12 minutes you will proably get a much better price.

Good Luck.


Thursday, July 26, 2012


The first record has been broken at the 2012 Olympics, just four hours in and still two days before the opening ceremony, the London organising committee have already made a major cock-up and hugely offended North Korea, which, to be honest is not hard to do. Ahead of their women's football international with Columbia, their players were introduced on the big screen alongside the flag of South Korea ! This was considered a major insult by the Democratic People's Republic, who are still technically at war with their neighbours from the South and have been so for over 60 years !

This must be the fastest "major" gaff in Olympic history !

BTW I heard from several people who went to the Opening Ceremony rehearsal this week and all said it was fantastic, which will surprise any cynics amongst us !


Atletico Mineiro won’t be able to call upon defensive midfielder Leandro Donizete and they have a 100% record in the six matches he has started this season. Otherwise, they are pretty much at full strength,

As we have discussed a couple of times recently, Santos are struggling for numbers and are low on offensive quality at the moment. I wrote about them on saturday  ......we opposed Santos in midweek, taking Botafogo with the handicap start ,  .....Hosts are without star player Neymar, Paulo Henrique Ganso  and Rafael , all on Olympic duty, Juan is suspended, Bernardo, Fucile, Leo, Edu Dracena and Galhardo are all injured. So, they are missing five starters including three defensive players and keeper from an already suspect backline, plus a couple of likely replacements and their two big names in Neymar and GansoSantos held out for a 0-0 draw, which was pretty good under the circumstances, they will have Juan back from suspension, but that shaky backline will again be missing several players and the big three are going to be in London for several weeks yet. It will definitely not be so easy for Santos to hold out on the road, especially at strong home side Vasco da Gama, who have won four of their five home starts and who could go top of Serie A with three points this evening.

They lost 2-0 at Vasco and now face another very difficult away start to the league leaders, the big 3 are still at the Olympics of course,  the defence is without three players again including the suspended Durval ( 21 Serie A and Copa starts) and Edu Dracena ( 18 starts). No goals in three matches for the visitors and it is hard to see that improving too much, with much of their offensive talent in London. Hosts have won six in a row and scored 13 in their last four, average league position of those six teams when they played AM was 9th, which makes the sequence even more impressive.Ronaldinho has made a big contribution to each of those wins, with three goals and four assists after a very slow start to his season and he, and his team mates will surely fancy this against a Santos side low on confidence and missing both starting central defenders.They collected just a single point from the three league games that  both missed this season and that came against 19th placed Bahia. However, it will be hard for us to get too fat on the odds offered about the hosts ( -1 ball 1.82), having said that the visitors make no appeal at present. I would like to say that it might be an option to wait a while and back the hosts "in running", but Santos have conceded an awful lot of early goals ( over 26% of their total allowed) in the first 15 minutes, more than in any other 15 minute period in their game(s), which is very odd, average time for a first goal scored in Brazilian football is 32nd minutes, so these stats are way out of line .

Good luck.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012


I have a free GOWI package available, lots of information, including a daily newsletter, maybe two on offer.

All you have to do is send me an email at ......   ..... with the subject title ..... GOWI PACKAGE and I will forward it after 17.00 this evening.

Good Luck

Saturday, July 21, 2012


Part of today's email is reproduced below, the meat in the daily notes sandwich is restricted to subscribers, but there is still some useful information in the content shown. I am biased, but the daily notes are now an amazing product and are invaluable to the regular punter.

Contact :

Both Irish bets were winners yesterday ( see below) Bray Wanderers drew 0-0 and whilst we were made to sweat for the third goal in the Shelbourne game, they all count and there were will be games over the season when late goals go against us, so no need to feel guilty about one in our favour ! To be honest, there were quite a few chances in this game and it would have been unjust had the match not gone "over".

Regular readers know how impressed I have been over the years with Mark Cavendish, but yesterday's stage win was the most impressive yet and he traded at an amazing 11.0 in running ...... that was tough to miss ! Team Sky have been totally dominant this year and that is not going to change today in the long time trial, 53 flat kilometres from Bonneval to Chartres against the clock with a slightly uphill finish. Surely we will see another Wiggins-Froome 1-2, but no big odds this time about Bradley who is a best priced 1.40, his team mate is 4.0 and Froome is capable of winning this anyway, but with a two minute advantage ( 2.05), maybe Wiggins can ease off and let Froome claim the spoils.

There are two things about the race, Wiggins might want to show his best today and end any lingering speculation about his worth as overall winner, with many believing Froome the better man.

There has been underlying tension over this and comments from Froome found their way into the French press, but generally, at least to the media, they have been the perfect team players. But this is a real opportunity for Froome to prove that he is the right man for 2013. In the Tour of Spain last year Froome beat Wiggins by 23 seconds in the 47km time trial and he definitely has the potential to win today.

Bonus is that Wiggins might let him, so, for me, the circa 4.0 for Froome to win today's time trial is much the best price on offer .

Onto Football now and lets start in Brazil, we opposed Santos in midweek, taking Botafogo with the handicap start , I wrote .....Hosts are without star player Neymar, Paulo Henrique Ganso  and Rafael , all on Olympic duty, Juan is suspended, Bernardo, Fucile, Leo, Edu Dracena and Galhardo are all injured. So, they are missing five starters including three defensive players and keeper from an already suspect backline, plus a couple of likely replacements and their two big names in Neymar and Ganso.  Santos held out for a 0-0 draw, which was pretty good under the circumstances, they will have Juan back from suspension, but that shaky backline will again be missing several players and the big three are going to be in London for several weeks yet. It will definitely not be so easy for Santos to hold out on the road, especially at strong home side Vasco da Gama, who have won four of their five home starts and who could go top of Serie A with three points this evening. Hosts are also something of a bogey side for the visitors winning the last four h2h meetings in Rio with a 10-1 goal difference. They are buoyed by a terrific midweek away win against Sao Paulo, who had a 100% home record before that match, they have added to their options with a couple of new signings this week and are only missing Rodolfo, Carlos Tenorio and Eduardo Costa, the last two named are fringe players and Rodlfo has missed the last four starts in any case. Vasco really should win this, but the asian quote of -0.75 1.92 is now a little skinny for me, it was ten clicks higher overnight and I would probably have taken that, as it is, I will pass. But if you are following the betting market or this match in running, you might find a better quote, although don't wait too long, as Santos have conceded an incredible 24% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, which is a very high percentage.

MLS up next, I can start with a word of caution about the New York Red Bulls who did us a big favour in midweek, this is their third home start inside six and a half days, New York City has been in the middle of a heatwave and they rather incredibly played at 13.00 in the heat of the day against Chicago on Wednesday, that is a gruelling schedule and apart from a friendly match with Aston Villa in midweek, fast improving Philadelphia Union have only played two home starts since July 4th and not left Philly for 17 days. They should be much the fitter of the two squads, anyway no bet for me, more a word of warning about Red Bulls. Union have a whole host of players facing late tests, but nearly all are expected to make it, Rafa Marquez will again miss out for the hosts, which ( sorry Rafa) is a plus for New York atm ! Quite a bit cooler in NY today, but baring in mind there might be a few tired bodies on the pitch, there could be late action in this one, which is often the case with Philly anyway , they have scored 28% of their goals and conceded an eyepopping 38% in the final 15 minutes of games.

I like the  .....


Good Luck.




We discussed two of these teams last week and reproducing those notes is probably a good place to begin....

Bray Wanderers will have four first teamers missing, defender Dave Webster who missed the trip to Sligo with a knee injury will miss out again, as will Sean Houston who was suspended for the Sligo game but a thigh injury forces him out of this one. Adam Mitchell who was sent off late on last Saturday following a second yellow card is suspended as is Club Captain Danny O'Connor .  The club are desperately trying to get some cover in on loan, the are going to sorely miss the four players, which give them limited options in defence and especially midfield, where Houston and O'Connor are amongst the first names on the team sheet. the team already have a limited amount to play for in the league. It is a very different story for Shelbourne, who have to win if they are to retain any euro hopes for this season, they have scored in their last seven visits here, two or more goals in 7 from 9, three + in four and not lost in nine meetings. Hard not to see goals, with the last 20 h2h meetings home and away averaging 3.5 per game and given the hosts problems at the back. Barry Clancy is suspended for the visitors, but he is very much replaceable, they had a big confidence boosting win over Dundalk last week and I expect them to follow up today, they look good off level ball , but those odds are too short for my taste. Several companies have 2.10 + for Shelbourne to score two or more and I think that is a terrific price and I would love to but that up as my bet, but it is not freely available, so I will have to opt for 1.25 units Shelbourne -0.5 ball 2.30 + , but the 2 goal bet is probably better if you can get that.

Shelbourne won that by the odd goal in five, which was just about perfect for us and the Bray cause ( if indeed there is one at present) was further hindered by the sending off of Kieran Walters, he will be suspended tonight and is a big loss offensively, the attacking midfielder has played an average of 86 minutes per match across all league games and contributed five goals. However, overall, the squad is much stronger with Danny O'Connor and Adam Mitchell back from suspension and Webster and Houston available following injury. They also added to their options with the signings of youngsters Paul Moffatt and Ryan Dooney this week and both played in the friendly with Scunthorpe in midweek, which Bray lost 1-0.

At around the same time Rovers were being held 0-0 at home by Ekranas in the Champions League, that was a disappointing result for the Irish champions and is going to make things very difficult for the trip to Lithuania this coming midweek and they will surely have one eye on that game. Hosts will be without suspended Gary Twigg tonight, he has 15 goals in 18 starts, including one in the reverse fixture (a 2-2 draw ), no other Rovers striker has scored more than two goals and that is Aaron Greene who is also out injured. Key defender Craig Sives picked up a knock in midweek and is a doubt. Hosts are much the stronger team, but have problems and the goals have dried up, just two in four starts and they have a big match in midweek, this will be their 4th start in just 12 days and they look a little vunerable. Wanderers have played only two competitive matches in July and performed well in both, despite being without a host of players in the second, all of whom have now returned. I smell a bit of an upset here. Bray Wanderers +1.25 ball 1.95 + asian line will be my pick.

It is very hard not to see goals in the other match. Shelbourne have scored seven in winning their last two, Drogheda's last ten starts in all competitions have averaged 3.4 goals and they have scored 17 in their last six outings. The visitors have scored in their last five visits here, two or more in four of those games. Both seem far happier on the front foot and the hosts especially will be all out for the three points to stay in touch with the top two.

Home boss Alan Mathews was very unhappy about his teams defensive display at Bray last week and he remains without midfielders Barry Clancy and Glenn Cronin today.

Drogheda United produced arguably their finest performance of the season to overcome a second half sending-off and record a fantastic 2-0 win over Saint Patrick’s Athletic at Richmond Park on Sunday.
Manager Mick Cooke went with a defensively orientated 4-5-1 formation, with Alan Byrne, Philip Hand and Cathal Brady replacing the suspended duo of Stephen Quigley and Eric Foley and his tactics worked a treat. He will have those two back this evening, but Ryan Brennan, sent off at Sty Paddy's will miss out, along with central defender Brian Gannon. I could see this develop into a bit of a shoot out, the reverse fixture ended in a 3-1 win to Drogs, it could easily have been 5-4 and was an incredibly open game, you can watch extended highlights here LINK if you are so inclined. There must have been 40 attempts on goals and a host of defensive howlers, I think the woodwork was hit four times too, Shelbourne had a lot of joy with long throw ins and crosses into the box and with Gannon out at the back, that will surely be something the hosts will be looking to exploit again, hopefully for them, with more end product this time.  1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 1.88 asian line is my pick
Good Luck.

Friday, July 20, 2012

TGIF .....

The weekend always really starts with Friday's email and in today's, I have put up two football bets ( one strong) and a nice "suggestion" at a tasty looking 6.0 +. I also gave my views on how Ramadan might have a bearing on the major sporting events over the next month and discussed Round 2 at the Open Championship.

The weekend looks hugely promising and I am very excited by the MLS fixtures in particular, where I am planning four bets ( two strong). I also have a confident ( very strong) selection for the action elsewhere.

None of the selections ranked strong or better, will find their way onto the blog over the weekend, or anytime soon, but I will try to post a couple of the other previews in the next day or so. So, if you are happy with that, please check back, if not and you would like the opportunity to read all my previews, they send me an email at ............  and I will forward you details by return.

Good luck.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012



Quite a lot to get through today, but I have managed to get it all onto one email, so no need for a follow up.
Six selections , one at even money, the other five all at odds against, including two "strong" bets at odds of 2.64 and 2.05 and a "very strong" selection at a massive ( IMO) 2.27.






Red Bulls had to settle for a share of the spoils against Seattle at the weekend, they looked vunerable to the counter in that game, but really should have claimed the spoils. Rafa Marquez, not for the first time this season looked a liability and they were a better defensive unit after he left the field, he is doubtful tonight, which is a blessing in disguise, it is hard to see how he know fits into this squad and the big salary earner will surely not be on the books too much longer. Sebastien Le Toux scored on his debut and back up keeper Bill Gaudette from the LA Galaxy was not at fault for either goal and was nominated for "save of the week". With SLT, Cooper and Henry, New York have  a huge offensive threat and will fancy their chances today against the Fire backline missing Arne Friedrich through suspension and continuing to have to rely on new signing Alex in midfield, where Marco Pappa and Sebastian Grazzini remain doubts. NY remain unbeaten at home and will be out for revenge after losing in Chicago 3-1 last month, but no Henry that day and we discussed on Sunday how vital he is to things both as goalscorer and provider. The weather is a concern, a 13.00 kick off is hard to comprehend, given that the city is in the middle of a heatwave, actually, they are lucky, as game time temperature is forecast for 32 degrees ( it could have been much higher) but that was more by chance and it was an odd decision. Having said that ,Red Bulls have had a less gruelling recent schedule than Fire and their players should be fresher and they pose a far bigger offensive threat than the visitors, who have scored just once from open play in over 400 minutes of football. 1.25 units New York Red Bulls -0.5 ball 2.09 asian line.


Good Luck.

Monday, July 16, 2012


Email results last 15 weeks...

330 + events previewed....

270 official red type selections..... Stakes 327 units, Returns 424.44 units, ROI 129.8%, profit 97.44 units, $50 flat stake on each would have won $4,872, at an average of $325 per week.
I have also put up "suggestions" that have won at odds of 25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.
You can view five years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.
Also NOT included in those figures was a suggestion on Zach Johnson winner of the  John Deere Classic today , this was sent out on Friday @ 28-1 and he was put up as a red type bet this morning at 7.0 + ( see below)
Send me an email to get full details of the email service .....



Matteson -18
Stricker - 15
Johnson -14
Harman -14
Hurley III -13
Senden -13
Henry -13
Five golfers @ -12
Six golfers @ -11

Eighteen golfers within seven strokes of the lead, but I strongly feel it will be very difficult for anyone, but the seven named players to win this on a course where scoring is relatively easy, you are probably going to have to shoot sub 64 to come from out of the pack and win and even that might not be good enough !

I really think that we are down to a three horse race and it is those I wish to concentrate on. Troy Matteson, has been wayward off the tee all week, but the rest of his game has been solid and he has putted really well, he has won two times previously on tour, the Open twice ( !) in 2006 and 2009. This is not the Frys Open of course,but he might argue that he wins every three years and this is his time ! This is his 22nd start of the year, he has missed 11 cuts and is yet to post a top 25 finish ! In fact, he has one top 15 placing in 42 outings and one top five finish since he last won, so this man is "in contention" rusty ! He is ranked 118th for Round 4 scoring this year and 127th in 2011, he last led going into the final round in the Puerto Rico Open early last year, after shooting -16 for his opening three rounds, he was level par on Sunday ( +2 for the final 16 holes) and blew a three stroke overnight lead ! The similarities to today are amazing and a similar outcome must be very likely with two such classy and hungry players breathing down his neck. He could win of course, but at circa 2.40 he would never carry any of my money.

Winner should come from Stricker, who as discussed earlier in the week is chasing his fourth straight win here and he has to be favourite and Zach Johnson, who has hardly put a foot wrong for the last 45 holes and played his best golf of the week yesterday.

On Friday I wrote ....At the John Deere Classic ,Zach Johnson came on very strong over the closing holes to tie with Nick Watney, their three ball was won by Ted Potter Jr, who is clearly still riding the wave of euphoria from last week. Steve Stricker shot -6 and he is clearly going to make  a strong defence of his title and that little piece of history.

We discussed the great course form of both players yesterday, Johnson is currently ranked 2nd on tour this year for R2 scoring, averaging 68.47 for his 15 Friday rounds which is unbelievable consistency. Strcker has been ranked 11-6-12-18 for R2 scoring over the last four seasons and it is very easy to make a case for him being the strongest Friday player on the planet.

Stricker is a skinny looking 5.0/5.10 on the exchanges to win outright, but given his course and R2 record it is hard to see how he could be any bigger and he will go very close. Zach Johnson is a far more appealling 27.0 /28.0 and as big as 29.0 in a couple of places, he is in a tie for 39th, but only three strokes off a tie for third place and I am sure he will trade significantly shorter overnight, if we see the best of him today.

In his post match interview, he said he hit a lot of quality shots and putts and he feels very comfortable on what is his home course, Johnson has been a member here for almost a decade and gets huge support from the galleries. He had a couple of putts lip out on his front nine ( he played the back nine first btw) and can go low today with a better start and little more luck.

Both Stricker and Johnson are very low prices to win any two ball match ups today, but the 27.0 + for Johnson with an eye on trading out is a possible way to get involved, it will be easier to find betting opportunities over the weekend here.

Johnson looked very relaxed in post round interview yesterday ....

THE MODERATOR: Okay, we'll jump right in. Third round, 5 under 66 here at the John Deere Classic. You find yourself in a great position heading into the final round tomorrow. Just a few comments about today's round and then we'll open it up for questions.
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, today was good. I mean, I think I hit it today as good as I have all week, if not better. Put myself in position to make a lot of birdies.
There was a lot of positives. Couple mishaps, but nothing significant. Good finish, too. That was nice. I mean, obviously a birdie on 17, but two good shots on 18 and a good putt; just didn't go in. A lot of things to build from and I think to carry me into Sunday.
Q. You mentioned the ball striking today was as good as it's been for a while. Maybe back to Colonial?
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, early on in Colonial.
Q. Not the final round.
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, certainly early on. A lot of good compressed shots, a lot of good start lines, and never really getting too ahead of myself.
It's really hard to elaborate on that, but I really put the ball in a place where -- with the exception of No. 4 where you just don't make that big a numbers.
Yeah, quality shots. I hit love of fairways. Felt like I hit more fairways today than I have the last couple days. So yeah, misjudged some lines out of the rough, but nothing significant.
Q. 15 straight rounds in the 60s; obviously this is a comfort zone course for you. Somebody is going to have to go pretty low again tomorrow it to win this thing, right?
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah. Well, that's what you anticipate here with these conditions. Minimal winds, pretty warm temperature, ball carries a long ways. You know, I don't really like expectations, but when it comes to elements, you know, that's fine.I just expect myself to go out there and have a good process, have good communication with Mike, and hit quality shots again.

Johnson has finished top two ( one win) in three of his last seven starts and we should see a third today, I really cannot see him out of major contention coming down the home straight.

Betting wise, this is more complicated, if you are already on Johnson at that circa 28-1 , I suggest you back Stricker at 3.50 ( 3.43 Pinnacle ) on the exchanges as a "saver", if you are not involved, I would suggest at least a minimal bet on Johnson to win at circa 7.0 + there is some 7.40 on offer.

Stricker and Johnson are a combined 2.40 to win at current top quotes and they have far more than a 42% chance to win in my book, so backing both is definitely an option too.
 Good Luck.

Contact :

Sunday, July 15, 2012


I have been on absolute fire with my bets on US football this summer. 23 bets, 19 winners, 4 losers, ROI 167.01 % !!!!

Full list ......


1.25 units Chicago Fire -0.5 ball 1.92 asian line.  WON 1-0


 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 1.91 + asian line WON 5-0


1.25 units Toronto -0.25 ball 1.96 asian line. WON 3-2


1.5 units Philadelphia Union -0.5 ball 1.96 asian line.  WON 3-0


I like the home win and the 3.25 for them to score three or more 1.25 units Real Salt Lake -1 ball 2.07 asian line.    WON 3-0


1.25 units Colorado Rapids -0.5 ball 1.98   LOST 0-1


1.5 units Sporting Kansas City level ball 1.83   WON 3-103/04 HOUSTON DYNAMO - CHICAGO FIREChicago Fire +0.25 ball 2.04 asian line HALF WON 0-0


 The "over" 2.5 goal line at 2.25 on the asian handicap looks very big indeed and I make that a 1.5 unit bet.   WON 2-1


I favour Galaxy to win and they would be my pick at circa 2.25 off level ball  LOST 3-4

1.25 units Philadelphia +0.25 ball 1.88 asian line  WON 4-0


 LA Galaxy -0.75 ball 1.91 + asian line, there is some 3.75 for LA to score 3+ which looks attractive, but not freely available.    WON 3-0


 1.25 units San Jose +0.5 ball 2.04 asian line    WON 2-1
 0.75 units @ 3.25 for SJE to score two or more   WON 2-1


1.5 units Houston Dynamo -1 ball 1.95 asian line LOST 3-3


1.25 units Chicago Fire -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line.  WON 3-1


 1.5 units DC United level ball 1.98 asian lineWON 1-0


 1.25 units Houston Dynamo -0.5 ball 1.91 asian line. WON 2-1


 1.25 units Chivas -0.25 ball 2.20 asian line.   WON 2-1


  "over" 2.5 goal line @ 1.90  ( 1.25 units)    LOST 2-0


1.25 units Columbus Crew level ball 1.80 asian line WON 2-1


Chivas +0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.  WON 1-0

1.75 units Colorado Rapids +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line.   WON 2-1
 Of the four losers, LA Galaxy led 2-0 against Earthquakes, Colorado were "all over" Vancouver and the "over"between the Revolution and Fire should have been easily covered, the woodwork saved the oddsmakers twice, together with some unbelievable saves. It really should be 22 from 23, but I am not complaining, well, not too much !
Contact  :

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

$250 PER WEEK !


Three matches/ events to discuss today and a big week ahead, the weekend football looks really good !

A suggestion on the Brazilian game and two official red type selections, including one for the MLS our favourite league !


Two home games this week for new continental champions Corinthians and tonight is the first time all season we have see all their stars in domestic action. As I explained a couple of times previously, winning the Copa Libertadores was given total priority and that was achieved last midweek, they gave everyone the weekend off and stuck with the B team for the trip to Sport Recife, where they came back with a point, now it is time to start collecting league victories. They have four long term injuries, but won the Copa without them ,everyone else is available and they look set to go with their strongest possible eleven this evening. A win tonight would take them out of the "drop zone" and up to 13th , another at the weekend into lower mid table and with four of their next five at home, they could easily be back contending at the right end of the table in double quick time.

The visitors are very inconsistent, their record of 4-0-3 is a reflection of that and their supporters have seen a league high 30 goals already this season, at an average of 4.285 per game. Scoring the most and conceding the fourth highest total in the division, however, scoring wise they have yet to meet a backline as miserly as their hosts (just 47 goals conceded in 53 league games and four in winning the Copa). They will have Marcio Azevedo back from suspension, but Marcelo Mattos and new signing Clarence Seedorf are still not available, which robs them of a lot of midfield experience. Rafael Marques has also signed a contract this week and it will be interesting to see how he and Seedorf perform, but that is for the future.

Corinthians are the number one side in Brazil and the continent by some way, they are tough, uncompromising and highly efficent, not giving opponents a moments rest,  they were the first Copa champions since Boca in 1978 to pass through an entire Libertadores campaign undefeated. I suspect they will be very motivated tonight, Botafogo have conceded the first goal in five of their seven starts and if they do so again, it will probably be game over. My only concern is that Corinthians have a poor record in this series on home soil, but they really ought to win. Corinthians -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Now for the main bets ....




Good Luck.

Email results last 14 weeks...

320 + events previewed....

260 official red type selections..... Stakes 314 units, Returns 402.03 units, ROI 128.03%, profit 88.03 units, $40 flat stake on each would have won $3,520, at an average of over $250 per week.
I have also put up "suggestions" that have won at odds of 25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.

You can view five years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.

Contact :

Monday, July 09, 2012


MONDAY JULY 9th  ( written 10.00 Monday)

Andy Murray served four more aces than Roger Federer and also traded at odds on during the course of the second set set yesterday. Philadelphia Union won 3-0 and I believe that is the the 13th winner from 16 MLS selections, one of the others was a push (money back) and of the two losers, one blew a two goal lead in a match where I also favoured goals, so far from totally wrong and the other dominated, but their opponent scored the winner with their only shot on target !

The Football League clubs have returned to pre season training now and will be starting to play friendlies soon. Some of these teams are in a bad financial position, I have heard of one who are leaving it as late as possible to sign any players in an attempt to cut their wage bill and only six senior professionals were at the first session, where I assume they were playing three a side ! I already have a lot of information for the new domestic ( at least for me) football season and I am very pleased with that first outright bet at huge odds.

This week looks promising, I will probably take a first look at the European qualifiers, but want to try something different with them as limits are too low and the lines change too quickly. The US PGA tour event the John Deere Classic is one of my favourites, it is a real "horses for courses" event and I have done very well there in the past. On the European Tour a classy field heads up to Inverness for the Scottish Open to get used to some links golf, before next weeks Open Championship and I am sure that we can find something of interest there.There are also full rounds of J-League, Irish  and MLS football, all of which we will be involded in.

I am going to leave the football alone today, so just a few words about the Tour de France Individual Time Trial today, which will be raced over 41.5km between Arc-et-Senans and Besançon.

Fabian Cancellara has been made circa even money favourite and I am not sure that is correct. The Swiss rider won the prologue and I think he is 100% in those races, but doesn't perform as well once the rigors of the tour have taken it's toll later in the race and he was injured in the spring, which may affect him over the longer distances.

Bradley Wiggins finished second in the prologue , 7 seconds behind Cancellara but he did not go all out in the first half of that, he took ten seconds off his big rival for the overall win Cadel Evans and will be looking to really increase that today, which will enable him to continue riding defensively in the mountains. He is a three time Olympic individual( 2)  and team  pursuit(1) champion .

The British cyclist has been oozing confidence in interviews and hinted that he had something special to offer today, he started to say something whilst talking to the UK media yesterday and then stopped himself. His team has been ultra professional in the build up to every stage and have done all their homework on this one and I mean to a special degree. He did a lot of work on his upper body and core strength in the gym over the winter and as a result, his time trialling ability has improved yet again, he is unbeaten this season in longer time trials, taking the contre la montre in the Tour of Algarve in February, the hill climb up Mont Faron in Paris-Nice in March, the long uphill time trial in Tour of Romandie in May and finally the Dauphiné test. He made an error in one of these last year when he started too hard and learned from that mistake, hence the cautious opening section in the prologue.

I found something on a specialist website which said that the work done by Wiggins in the off season helped him because "improved core strength improves the transmission of power from his upper body to his legs, as well as making it more comfortable to hold the elongated, flattened aerodynamic position on his time trial bike." !

I think 3.0 for Bradley Wiggins is too big.

Good Luck.


Sunday, July 08, 2012



I was very pleased with the J-League previews yesterday, three goals in the Kashima game with Nagoya scoring two, Hiroshima won and Yokohama-Cerezo drew. Elsewhere, the Ladies final went "over" and in the MLS , Real Salt Lake landed the handicap bet and also scored those three goals (see below) and all in all, it was a very good day.

Today, I have two strong bets in the MLS games and a huge priced selection for the final round of the USPGA event, still waiting for all of those golf odds to come out, so will include that in the follow up email at midday.

That doesn't leave much for this email, just the Wimbledon final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray.

Murray leads the h2h 9-7 with every single meeeting being on hardcourts, either indoor or out, surprisingly, six of the last seven have been won in straight sets. In the last ten, which go back over four years, Murray has served more aces in eight, they tied once and Federer served more, just one more, in that straight sets Aussie final win in 2010. Given those stats and the fact that even the casual tennis observer will have noticed a huge improvement in the British player's serve over the last 12 months and he looks a decent quote @ around 1.80 + to serve the most aces, very little liquidity at present but there is up to 1.86 for tiny money on the exchanges and a couple of companies also offer Murray with a handicap start in this market, which even at low odds, cannot be right. If you watched Federer destroying Youzhny in the quarters, you might be amazed to know that he lost the "ace race "  2-3 in that, despite serving fantastically well, losing only five game and winning 88% of points on his first serve !

This is time for Murray to step up and if he can come out strong and by that I do not even mean he has to win the first set, just be competitive, I think he will put in a big showing. In that Aussie final, Murray stepped up from his performance in their previous grand slam final two years earlier and should have taken it into a fourth set, he made errors both times he held set points in that tie break.

The Brit's second serve is hugely improved, Federer is no longer as good a volleyer ( not much practice ?) and Murray will probably try and pull him into the net, physically Murray is much the stronger now and the longer this goes the better he will get. I think Murray will take at least two sets, so like the 2.80 on the exchanges for him to win outright, as firstly, I think it is too big anyway and secondly he seems sure to trade a lot lower at some stage, which will give opportunities to take  a profit.

Good Luck.


Time for RSL to get back to winning ways. I have been impressed by them at times this season, in particular a fairly recent 3-0 win at Chivas, that is the only game that their opponent has lost in ten starts and it came shortly after a couple of really solid performances from the hosts, whom you may recall, I had put up as a potential big improver ahead of their LAG derby game in late May. That was the only blip for Chivas since then , but to be honest, RSL could have won by five, they had a "good" goal disallowed with the score still 0-0 and it was 85 minutes before the hosts had an attempt on goal. Real have not won in four since then, they blew a 2-0 lead at home to Galaxy in the first and I think that really knocked their confidence. the next game they lost again to San Jose, a match they should have won easily, having 19 attempts on goal,including two headed off the line and two completely open goals missed.

They steadied the ship with a 0-0 draw with Seattle in midweek, when they introduced defender Kwame Watson-Siriboe and winger Kenny Mansally, again, they had chances enough to have won with ease and the goals are going to start to flow again shortly. They have a clean sheet to console themselves with and the overall performance was very solid. Sounders admitted they were outplayed and with the new additions , who will have had a little more training with the squad and they should have Tony Beltran back tonight, RSL are only going to get stronger. They are a whole host of post match interviews below and I have highlighted some of the more inportant comments in red type.

Portland are very poor travellers and although buoyed by the win over San Jose, they will have travelled Portland- Colorado-Portland- Salt Lake this week and whilst not huge distances by MLS standards it is still hour after hour in the air and transit and very little training ground prep for this match.I like the home win and the 3.25 for them to score three or more, as I think that when they get one this time, the others will flow, but will take 1.25 units Real salt Lake -1 ball 2.07 asian line. Real scored three in the reverse fixture back in March which they won by the odd goal in five, they had 17 attempts that day and were a little beat up and short of offensive options
going into the match.


Serena leads the h2h 2-0 and has yet to lose more than four games in any set to her opponent so far, however, those meetings were both in 2008, when Radwanska was still a teenager and she has made her big breakthrough this season. I do think that Radwanska is a totally lost cause, she has the poise on court to hang in with Serena, which is what you need to do and makes so few unforced errors that Williams will have to win every point, she will not be gifted too many, but it is hard to see how even a fully fit Radwanska is going to overly hurt her opponent and having withdrawn from the doubles citing a respiratory illness yesterday, we cannot be sure that she is even that.

Having said that, it might be that the Polish camp are trying to take some of the pressure off their girl by releasing this news now, as she says her throat has been bad for several days, but not troubling her on court and plenty of players have withdrawn from doubles previously, when going deep in the singles event. Radwanska, when she gets into a rally with Williams, will be returning a lot of balls and aside from power has all the other shots in her game. She will probably look to mix things up ,return some balls down the middle to cut out the angles for Williams who can be prone to overhit these, use the drop shot quite a bit to try and bring the US player in and then use her hard to read backhand pass to win the point. She has a really well placed first serve and is prepared to volley behind it, we will not see many outright aces from her, but she will get a few cheap service points of her own. I still feel that Serena is way too short and would not be surprised to see a long battle today, not a match to get involved in now, but my pick would still have to be "over" 19 games 1.885 with Pinnacle . You are not going to overpower Serena at this Wimbledon, but we have already seen her have a problem with guile and Radwanska has that in spades, she just needs to keep Williams on court long enough for it to take effect, in second sets against Zheng, Shevdova, Azaranka and even to a lesser degree Kvitova, she has shown a real vunerability.




FOR DETAILS ....... CONTACT ..........

Saturday, July 07, 2012


Roger Federer became the first man in history to reach eight Wimbledon Singles finals yesterday, but that goes almost without mention as every single UK newspape rhas the same tennis front page story and that is Andy Murray, the first Briton in the final since 1938, ending 74 years of hurt ! Goodness knows what the media attention will be like if he wins !

Last British player in the final was Bunny Austin, also the first man to wear shorts at Wimbledon !

I previewed three J-League games today, the Ladies Singles final and also looked at two of tonights MLS fixtures, where I have my strongest news of the day.

The J-League previews were .....



Hard not to see goals here and both making a contribution, hosts have scored in their last ten starts, 24 goals in total, Nagoya have scored in 9 from 10 J-League games, 16 in total and have scored six in their last three road games.
H2h record sees the last ten meetings averaging 3.1 goals and both have scored in eight of those.

Kashiwa Reysol defender Hiroki Sakai has now moved to Germany, no injury problems for them otherwise, hard to see how an already porous defence, no team outside the bottom five have conceded more, is going to be less so with the loss of such a key right sided defender.

The situation is unchanged at Nagoya, Keiji Tamada, Naoshi Nakamura and Ryota Isomura all remain out, but have been missing for some time, very experienced goalkeeper Seigo Narazaki had a small knee operation, but is still hopeful of playing, but his loss will not harm any bets on this game, which have to be of the goals variety.

Both teams look far happier on the front foot and will surely be looking for the three points that will keep them in the title hunt. The visitors will lose top scorer Kensuke Nagai (8 goals) to the Olympics after today and play the league leaders next week. I think they will be especially motivated today, they can score a couple and if the 2.30 for them to do so was freely available, that would be my pick. Instead I will have to opt for over 3 goals @ circa 1.95 on the asian market. 


Visistors stopped the rot with a win over FC Tokyo last week, but I have to feel that had more to do with their opponents form and it may just have papered over the cracks, Jubilo have conceded ten goals in their last four starts and will sorely miss Baek Sung Dong ( 2 goals - six assists) and as discussed last week, they have scored two or more goals in every match where he has played at least an hour. They will also be without keeper Naoki Hatta and his experienced back up, a long term injury still keeps striker Hidetaka Kanazono out.

Hosts are without defender Hwang Seok Ho who has gone off with the Korean Olympic team already, midfielder Satoru Yamagishi is a big doubt. Plenty of goals when these two play, they both sit in the top three and are two of the top three scorers also, but defensively, Jubilo look far more vunerable at present and when they lose on the road, it is normally with the concession of quite a few goals. I like Hiroshima to win this at around the even money mark and feel they might score a few, 3.50 + for them to score three or more appeals.
Goals remain a huge problem for Marinos, just two in their last five league starts, however, they have gone unbeaten over that sequence with four draws and a 1-0 win over a flagging FCTokyo, but as I said last week that can only carry on for so long and sooner or later, they need to start scoring more freely They will again miss injured captain Shunsuke Nakamura today, he has made a big contribution to their tiny goals scored column and it is very hard to see the hosts scoring more than a single goal.

Cerezo Osaka have sold midfielder Hiroshi Kiyotake ( 2 goals - 4 assists) to FC Nuremberg and his hugely influential partner Kim Bo Kyung ( 7 goals - 2 assists) has joined the Korean Olympic team . They are big losses, but things will get worse for them shortly as Yamaguchi and Ogihari will also be off to the Olympics after today, so sitting just one place, albeit five points outside the drop zone, they really need a result today and to retain that security buffer.

Hard to see either scoring twice and when that is the case, the draw is the obvious option and makes most appeal here at odds of circa 3.60.

Three goals in the Kashima game, with Nagoya scoring two !

Hiroshima won 2-0 and Yokohama and Cerezo drew 1-1 !

These were the only three J- League matches previewed today !

They made up around one third of the content of one email, there are around 500 emails per year and they cost around , well basically, nothing each ! Probably an amount most of you would not bother to pick up if you dropped it in the street !

One "happy hour" tomorrow Sunday ( contact me .....  for details of that) , after that, no more opportunities to sign up cheaply to the service, that's it, last chance saloon, whatever you wish to call it, the ship will have sailed !

Good Luck.

Friday, July 06, 2012



Agnieszka Radwanska beat Angelique Kerber ( an official bet @ odds of 2.42) in straight sets, Webb Simpson shot a first round 65 and beat Tiger Woods by six strokes and Steve Sticker finished two ahead of Jim Furyk, although unfortunately that one was not freely available. The day would have been perfect had Victoria Azarenka been able to find a way past Serena Williams, she fought hard and the US superstar showed signs of getting a little "tight" towards the end of the second set, but her massive/incredible serve got her out of trouble each time.

Today, I have notes about three events, the Greenbrier Classic, the Men's Semi- Finals at Wimbledon and one Irish match tonight. Including a bet @ odds of 2.50 and two nice suggestions at even bigger odds.

The schedule for the weekend looks like this.....

SATURDAY: Email will be sent before 09.00UK time  and will contain notes on the late morning J-League games, the Women's Final from Wimbledon and a strong bet for one of the Scandinavian football matches.

SUNDAY : Email #1 @ 10.00 UK time Will look at the Men's Final, Round 4 of the Greenbrier Classic and probably an after football fixture.
Email #2 Will cover the MLS fixtures, where I have several strong ideas and am still considering upgraded one to maximum bet status, I will update that situation in the earlier notes. I will send this email at midday.


I am interested in the three ball containing..... PREVIEW RESTRICTED


I was interested in City tonight, they have a really good record in this fixture, being unbeaten in eight visits, with five wins and also scoring two or more goals in the last five, they are coming off two heavy defeats, but had scored two or more in five of six starts before that. UCD have one cleansheet in ten and have conceded at least two in six of those.Hosts are ...... PREVIEW RESTRICTED



Huge pressure on Murray, who is looking to become the first British male in a million years to reach the Wimbledon final. He has a very solid record against Tsonga and the Frenchman's big weapons do not appear to work agaist Murray, who has won the last four meetings, two of which came on grass, here in 2010 and at Queens last year......PREVIEW RESTRICTED


Federer leads the h2h 14-13, but Djokovic has taken the last four and seven of the last eight, three of those came in grand slam semis, all won by the Serbian and two came in straight set wins, the pendulum looks to have well and truly swung his way. But, they have never met on grass previously, which is odd and the Swiss master is 64-7 on the Wimbledon courts, if he is going to stop the hemorrhaging, it is as likely to be here as anywhere else. I suspect that .....PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Good Luck.

Yesterday you could read my daily notes in full ( see below), today, just the "blurb", which 90% of the time, is all you get to read on the blog, if you would like to receive the full notes every day, send me an email at .....   ALSO, GET NEWS OF A HAPPY HOUR OFFER THIS WEEKEND, THE LAST OF 2012.

Thursday, July 05, 2012



Ladies Singles semi-finals at Wimbledon today and the line up looks a lot like this....

Agnieszka Radwanska 9.20 - Angelique Kerber 6.50

Serena Williams 2.15 - Victoria Azarenka 3.75

Top available quotes are alongside each player. Most of us have a big interest in the outright markets, several of you a huge one !

Before the tournament started I sent the following preview ...


I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.

The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.

Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.

Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !

The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final her as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, at the very bottom of the draw, things look quite good for Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka and she should be able to ease her way into the second week. She has reached the last eight in two of the last three years, losing to the eventual champion both times, Serena in 09 and Kvitova last year. Actually she has lost to the Czech player in each of the last two years, but took the champion, who was in imperious form, to three sets and arrives here this time with the additional confidence of not only being a grand slam winner, but having thrashed Sharapova 3&0 in that final.

Azarenka is 38-5 for the year, but 26-1 on fast courts, Roland Garros was a disappointment to her, but I feel that much of that is down to the fact that now she expects to win, or go very deep in all the majors. She took time out afterwards and went home to Minsk, I would prefer that she had at least played some grass court tennis, but the Belarus superstar knows her body well and has tended to return fresher and ready to do herself justice from these self enforced breaks. She is still prone to losing it sometimes, but these concerns are offset by her outright odds of 9.0 +, which are almost double what I made her , my price being around 5.0 .

She added Amelie Mauresmo to her team as a consultant in April, this was on a week to week basis and whilst I am not certain that they will be in London together, it would seem odd in the extreme to add a Wimbledon champion to your camp through Roland Garros and then let the arrangement drop for the All England Championships. However, even if that was the case, I feel sure that the astute Mauresmo would already have passed on some useful information, if the pair are together, it would be a huge plus, extra bonus would be that Mauresmo is a very calmimg influence too.

Azarenka took Kvitova close last year, despite making a very sluggish start to their semi and in the quarters she gace Paszek a bit of a thumping, she had eight break points against the huge serving champion, which she didn't make the most of and played to a high level right through her six matches, averaging just eight unforced errors per start, I expect her to go well and love the price, she can be vunerable early, but the draw has been kinder to her than most and we have to bet. 1.25 units Victoria Azarenka outright 9.0 +... there is some 9.8 on the exchanges and 10.0 in a place.

Later that same day, I sent this update ....

They have odds in their WTA Wimbledon Props page for "Who Will Win Wimbledon" odds are ...

Serena 3.86
Sharapova 3.55
Kvitova 7.10
The Field 2.65

I like "the field", Serena and Kvitova are in the same section, so only one can make the last four , so, "the field" will consist of at least two runners in the last four and Masha has a very tough draw , all of this was covered this morning btw and there is a good chance that only one of these three will be in the final four, no guarantee that any will, that, I accept is unlikely but regardless of 2,3 or 4 running for us, this looks a very good value bet unit on "The Field" to win Wimbledon @ 2.65 as a bet, 2.50 + is acceptable.

Those are the only outright positions we have taken.

So, "officially", we have circa 10.0 for Azarenka to win and 2.65 for Serena not to, in addition, several of you also picked up on the only other player I suggested was worth a look and took those circa 66-1 quotes for Radwanska.
If you have all three positions, you are obviously in an amazing position and could trade out all three bets for massive profits today, if you are in that situation, maybe the least you should do is cover yourself on Serena, but I will leave those decisions to the individual. For today, I will just take a brief look at both matches as though we had no involvement.

As I discussed yesterday, Angelique Kerber's body language in the quarter finals was terrible and in the third set, even when she was a break up early, she didn't believe that she could win, it was incredible to watch. Sabine Lisicki then took a 5-3 lead and served for the match, which was effectively over, there was no way that Kerber could win the match at that stage, but of course Lisicki could lose it and she did, throwing away four games in a row, well, at least the first three of those. AK was gifted the match by her countrywoman.

I saw at Eastbourne a similar inability to close matches out and win or lose today, the German is a player who I could never back at odds on against any quality opponent, infact, at the business end of tournaments, I would be looking to trade against her anytime she hit ultra low quotes "in running", as I think she will be "looking" for a way to lose, or at least make things very difficult for herself.

She has played Agnieszka Radwanska four times previously, with honours even, the last three of these all went the distance, Kerber won the biggie, at the US Open last year in what was her breakthrough tournament, but a couple of things about that match, it came when the level of expectation was low on her and the Polish girl went into the event having played a lot of tennis in the previous month and made a whole host of unforced errors in that match. That is not her modus operandi at all, her game is all about making as few errors as possible, she has averaged just eight in her last four matches here and it is hard to see her being as generous to her opponent this time. BTW Lisicki hit 50 unforced errors in the quarter and still should have won !

The Polish player varies her game and pace, she will not blast you off court, but can do just as much damage with her drop shots and angles and the former junior Wimbledon champion will come to the net if she has to, 41 times against Kirilenko in the quarters , she is also the better mover of the two on the surface IMO. I know that I have given Kerber a hard time here, at the end of the day she is a top ten player and should receive credit for that, but she is not going to carry any of my money. Radwanska is ready for the grand slam breakthrough now, Azarenka is the only top 20 player she has lost to in the last 11 months and I take her to win another close battle. 1.25 units Radwanska to win @ 2.42 on the exchanges...... my odds were much shorter, obviously this is only if you are not already involved in Radwanska outright.

Serena Williams has the indian sign over Victoria Azarenka and leads the h2h 7-1, which includes an easy win here in 2009, but the Belarus superstar has improved out of all recognition since then and really should have got some grand slam revenge already, the following year in the Australian Open quarters she took the first set and then lost the second in a tie break, difference today is that she comes into the match a grand slam winner, with all the confidence that brings with it and at 22 yo she is still improving. Serena has been and remains a great champion, but will shortly be 31 and is certainly not getting any better and for me, her all round game is not as good as it was. The serve is still awesome and she will get some cheap points today, but not as many as against a lacklustre Kvitova, she also hit a lot of winners and kept the unforced errors down, but still lost a set to Zheng and Shvedova and could have done the same against Kvitova in a match she dominated. My long wided point is that those good things cannot get any better and she is still not winning that easily. Her return is letting her down, she failed to return around 30 serves of Zheng and as I said at the time, about half of those were not fast enough to get a speeding ticket and delivered right into Serena's hitting zone. Williams is vunerable, if someone can just put some pressure on that amazing serve, Azarenka is, arguably, the best returner in the game , she is very aggressive, but not reckless and if things do not go so easy for Serena early, she might well struggle to get into such a good rhythm on serve today. Azarenka has a huge forehand, is not unwilling to come to the net and has improved her defensive game, her serve whilst not exactly a weakness, is not her strength, but she has been winning a lot of points behind it here. This could be a classic, it certainly has the potential, if Azarenka could fizz a winner or two early off that big Williams serve it might foce the US player out of her comfort zone and we could see that "perfect" Radwanska- Azarenka final....... a guy can dream ! No bet of course, but if we were not involved outright, I would take a little on the outsider at 2.50 +.

No football for me today, but I am interested in the Irish games tomorrow, the J-League on Saturday and probably one Scandinavian fixture and HUGELY looking forward to the MLS matches on Sunday, where I might well have  a fourth maximum bet of the year (the first three have won, all at odds against). More news of that on Saturday.

The PGA tour moves onto West Virginia for the Greenbrier Classic, just a few words about the event today, we will give it our full attention on Sunday, ahead of the final round. We spoke last week about how demanding the AT&T at Congressional was, it was played out in brutal conditions and anyone who was in contention for all four rounds, will surely be feeling drained this week and that must even include, the supremely fit Tiger Woods who did us such a big favour last weekend.

Two players, who along with Matt Kuchar ( not playing), have to be considered the best Round 1 golfers on Tour are new US Open champion Webb Simpson and prolific winner Steve Stricker. Both took last week off and should be thankful for that and should reap the benefits.

Simpson is ranked T7 for R1 scoring this year, 5th in 2011 and shot an opening 65 here last year, before finally finishing in 9th place. He is 22-1 + to lead the tournament after day one, which is a fun bet, if you want to waste a few euros. He is a very nice 2.52 to beat Tiger Woods in a match ( tie no bet) with Pinnacle Sports today, Tiger has won four of his last 13 starts, three this season, but prefers to ease his way into tournaments and is ranked 41st for R1 scoring this season.

Stricker is ranked 20th this year, was 4th in 2011 and 5th in 2010, he is ultra consistent and will be refreshed after a three week break. He is not as easy to back, Bet 365 have priced him at 1.91( tie no bet) to beat Jim Furyk who played all four rounds last week, which is ok, but hardly freely available. An option is to back him to win outright at up to 25.0 on the exchanges and look to trade out if he starts well.

Good Luck.