Thursday, November 30, 2006


Starts 11.00 cet tomorrow morning, looking into the opening two rubbers now and it looks very likely that I will put a bet online in the morning.

Mixed bag today, one winner, one loser, one void, for the second week running our team had a player sent off in the Czech Republic, must be something in the water.

Good Night.


I thought long and hard before deciding upon my final selection today.

Had a short list of three and at one stage, was going to put up all of them, but have gone with the cautious approach. The two I decided to pass , because some of you will be curious and are bound to ask, were both "overs", the UEFA Cup tie between Wisla- Basle and tonight's sole NFL game Cincinnati-Baltimore (over 41.5) .

Anyway, I like PSG with the level ball option, think that they will be happier out of the French capital after recent events. Following last week's horror show at home to Hapoel Tel Aviv, a supporter was shot by a policeman, this was followed by supporters turning up at training, trying to administer some "justice" on players, they felt to be not trying.

There have also been some ugly rumours about the team's "commitment" in that HTV game.

Well PSG have travelled with their strongest available squad and will surely be trying 101%, otherwise things could get very ugly, at the Parc des Princes come Sunday.

Boleslav have a small squad, that has played an awful lot of fixtures, with very little squad rotation and they have looked very jaded in recent outings.

Defeat for either would mean elimination and I think the "motivation" factor for PSG is greater, they dare not lose. They love to get one over on Marseille, their big rivals, who lost to Boleslav earlier in the season, which is an added incentive, as is not getting your legs broken by your own supporters.

4 points PSG level ball asian line 1.93.

Good Luck.


I have one more selection for today, which will be online at 19.00 cet , just wating for a weather update and some team news.

Please check back.


Ajax met PSV Eindhoven just 18 days ago, on the back of a run of 11 straight wins, scoring 33 goals, at least 2 in each game.

Obviously, it goes without saying that they entered the match with great confidence and completely dominated the opening half, however, they somehow contrived to lose the game and left the pitch visably shell shocked.

They have paid for this defeat several times over, their four outings since have been a tale of woe, no wins and a player dismissed early, in each of the last two.

This doesn't suddenly make them a poor team, infact, coach Henk ten Cate, looks to be building a very good side indeed, one capable of challenging for major honours.

Ajax simply have to refind their confidence and can do that tonight, with victory over Espanyol in the Amsterdam Arena.

The Spanish side have little to play for and still have an easy looking home group match to come.
Their La Liga future must take precedence and what a difficult run of fixtures they have coming up. Next two homes games see Seville and Real Madrid visiting the Olimpic Stadium, sandwiched between a trip to Atletico Madrid.

I think there is little doubt where their priorities must lie and strongly favour the Dutch side to get their season back on track.

4 points Ajax -1/2 ball asian handicap 1.70.

Good Luck.


The Danish champions claim to be suffering the effects of a successful, but very long year and travel without 5 key regulars.

Despite not being able to progress from the group stage of the Champions League, they seem to be giving priority to their upcoming fixture with Celtic. That match is decidedly more high profile, sold out and with a large amount of prize money at stake, the experience gained from such games, will stand them in good stead for future campaigns, so it makes very good sense.

Lillestrom are strong at home and this will be just their second home game for new coach Tom Nordlie, who took charge on November 16, a win today will go a long way to ensuring advancement in the competition.

Few away wins in the competition to date, just 2 in 12 starts. Think we have to side with the Norwegians, who look to be the more motivated of the two.

3 points Lillestrom -1/4 asian line 2.03.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ............

Almost everyone I spoke to this week, said something similar, Lens must be a fantastic bet/ banker/ certainty to beat Parma.

Not being wise after the event, but my only reply was that yes, they looked good, but the odds were very short and they got shorter and then shorter still.

There is a line we should try to never cross, however sure we may be about a team/player winning, once the value has gone, leave it alone. If we miss the boat, wait for the next one.

So many UEFA Cup gambles have gone astray on Parma in the past twelve months, it is truly mind numbing, punters losses must run into millions.

Suspect that Parma will be the first name, on every bookmakers, Christmas card list.

Arsenal let us down yesterday, well Mr Wenger's idea of squad rotation did, nearly fell out of my chair when I saw his starting eleven. However, the other two bets obliged, that makes 7 winners and 1.5 losers from 9 selections this week. Definitely looking to add to the winning column today.

My first selection will be online before 12.30 cet.

Please check back.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006


I have to apologise about the quality of this and the previous post, very short of time this afternoon.

Taking the "over" 2.25 goals here, each team creates a lot of chances and I expect an open encounter tonight. Both are way above average for goals in their matches, County are 2.7 for their last 10 and Town, a massive 3.10.

History is on our side, last 5 h2h meetings have gone way, way," over" at an average of 4.8 per game.

4 points over 2.25 goals Derby-Ipswich asian line 1.75.

Good Luck.


I have to favour the "over" option in this match.

The draw has virtually no value to either side, so both will be forced forward in pursuit of the three points. Accordingly they look set to name attacking line ups.

All five group games involving these two have had 2 or more goals and have been creating and conceding plenty of chances.

I see very little downside with the line set @ 2.25, really cannot see there being less than two goals and it is my confident selection.

4 points over 2.25 goals Besiktas-Brugge asian line 1.80.

Back later.

Good Luck.


I am going to side with the Gunners, to return to winning form at Craven Cottage tonight.

In ten Premiership meetings between the two, they are 9-1-0, winning all five in West London.

Arsenal will have more cutting edge upfront, with the return of van Persie, Rosicky and Thiery Henry, who should all have benefitted from the break, the Frenchman should be looking forward to the match, having scored 5 goals in 3 starts against the Cottagers.

Fulham will be without key defender Ian Pearce who is suspended, which hardly helps the cause and are very goal shy at home, with only 5 goals in 7 starts.

4 points Arsenal -1/2 ball 1.57 general, a little higher on the exchanges.

Back later.

Good Luck.


We are spoilt for choice today, virtually a full round in the Premiership, 8 UEFA Cup ties and a sprinkling of other interesting matches.

So, plenty to sink our teeth into.

Two winners and just a half stake loser yesterday, nice week so far.

I will have my first selection online around 13.30 cet .

Please check back.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006


This will be brief, I like the "over" here.

Coventry are improving, but do not draw too many, only one stalemate in 19 outings and are claiming to be going for the 3 points tonight.

The PNE defence is a little weakened by injuries and we can expect some goals, as there usually are when these two clash.The last six h2h meetings have all produced at least 4 goals !

4 points over 2.25 goals Preston-Coventry 1.86.

Good Luck.


These two come into the match in very different form.

Dave Penney has got his Darlington side firing on all cylinders, riding on the back of five straight wins. He will rotate his side tonight, but is keen to keep the winning run going and those coming in, will be looking to stake a claim for a regular starting place. Division 2 superstar Julian Joachim looks likely to make his comeback.

Mansfield have lost 3 league games in a row and put in a very poor performance in the weekend loss to Rochdale, where their commitment to the cause was questioned .

Both have bigger cup ties at the weekend, but with the better quality squad and current form, Darlington should make home advantage tell. Only three games from Wembley!

3 points Darlington -1/2 ball asian line 1.88.

Back shortly with one more bet for today.

Good Luck.


When first looking at this game, I was a little concerned about the motivation of the hosts, having got back into contention in the league and with a FA Cup tie at the weekend, they could easily have done without this fixture.

However, that doesn't appear to be the case at all. This is the final scheduled night game ever at Belle Vue ( The Earth Stadium), Doncaster's home for 84 years, Rovers move into their brand new stadium on New Years Day.

Real feeling of optimism at the club, only Bristol City have beaten them in 90 minutes play in 11 starts since early October and half season ticket sales for the new stadium, have gone through the roof, not literally.

Boss Sean O'Driscoll, who has got the team buzzing again, has named a strong side for tonight and there is plenty of competition for places in a talented squad.

Accrington have woken up to the reality of Division 2 life and have lost 5 league games in a row, they are missing a host of players this evening and whilst they may see this as a welcome diversion, look to be in for a tough and ultimately fruitless battle.

The final of this competition is scheduled to be the first competitive fixture at the new Wembley Stadium (subject to the builders), which is a real incentive for clubs at this level.

4 points Doncaster -3/4 ball asian line 1.76.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY PLANS ..... and other important news

Firstly the good news, we are back on track with 3/3 winners yesterday, hope some of you made a little money.

Next, an apology, in my opening post yesterday, I said my first selection would be online later in the morning, that should have read afternoon and the more observant amongst you, certainly noticed, sorry.

BTW to anyone who has emailed me in the last 24 hours, I will get back to you today, it was not possible to respond yesterday.

Today looks interesting and my first selection will be online by 12.30 cet ..... this is not a misprint.

Please check back.

Monday, November 27, 2006


Burton Albion and 1860 both won earlier this evening, so we are going for the hat trick here.

Going to side with the Green Bay Packers, getting a hefty start from the Seahawks.

Both teams are pretty beat up and are coming off very poor performances, after doubts, it now looks likely that quarter backs Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck, will both be fit to play.

Favre has started 251 straight games and has looked sharp in recent practice sessions, the extra days rest looks to have done him some good. He is 3-1 against his former coach Mike Holmgren, winning the last three.

With so many doubts about key players, especially on the Seahawks side, the 10.5 points start looks very attractive and is my selection.

3 points Green Bay +10.5 points 1.91 general.

Good Luck.


Football is a funny game.

1860 are a big club, certainly in Bundesliga 2 terms and are probably very unhappy to be outside the top flight. They are based in the massive Allianz Arena and have some 20,000 club members.

Koblenz, who just a couple of years ago were in the 4th division and playing before tiny crowds, must be delighted with their elevated status. This is all a bit of a dream for them.

Three years outside the Bundesliga is plenty for the hosts, who are determined to be in the promotion hunt, come the Spring. A win tonight will take them to within a point of Duisburg and the coveted third place in the table.

Strong at home where they have conceded only two goals, 1860 are sure to get chances against the visitors, who have tended to throw caution to the wind away from home, where they are 3-0-3.

Home win for me.

3 points 1860 -1/2 ball asian line 1.75.

I have a NFL bet for tonight's late game, that will be online later.

Good Luck.


.... in their infinite wisdom, have chosen Burton-Exeter for our viewing pleasure this evening.

Certain that the visitors will welcome the cash windfall, but will surely travel with apprehension, being without a win in 12 televised fixtures over the last decade.

City look to be coming for a point, having named a defensive looking midfield including 62 yo Paul Buckle. He played for Brentford in the dark ages, well the early nineties and actually he is almost 37, but you get the idea.

They have struggled to break teams down this season, drawing 9 of 19 starts. Last time out they failed to see off a Kidderminster side reduced to 10 men after a dismissal and were actually outplayed for periods.

Nigel Clough's Burton Albion, will be looking to get their promotion challenge back on track, after the hefty defeat at Dagenham.

Think that they are a fine bet -1/4 ball, which means half stakes returned in the event of a stalemate.

Look out for the home team's Keith Gilroy, who is capable of turning any game at this level.

4 points Burton -1/4 ball asian line 2.0.

Back shortly.

Good Luck.


Good Morning !

After a very nice start to last week, all selections showed a loss of 12.77 points, not a lot of luck from Tuesday onwards and looking back, there are few recommendations I would change, maybe Roma on Wednesday. So no complaints.

To be honest, a poor week was coming, following the fantastic run two weeks ago and we are still over 40 points up for the past three weeks. I did give my normal warning in the "Happy Mondays" post and, as ever the aim is long term profits, which the site has managed to sustain over many months.

Pretty sure that we will be back on track this week, hopefully today, my next post will be online later this morning, please check back.

Good Luck.

Sunday, November 26, 2006


It can only be Manchester United-Chelsea, which has been endlessly hyped in the media for weeks now.

No one needs me to tell them about these two, so straight into my bet, which is for the "over" 2 goal option. I would be very surprised if these two could not produce a couple of goals, in what is sure to be a tense and thrilling encounter.

Three of the last four h2h meetings have been "over" and 11 of 13 Old Trafford clashes have had 2 goals or more.

With so many attacking options on offer, I see very little downside on this bet.

5 points over 2 goals Manchester United-Chelsea 1.93 asian line.

Good Luck.


Gladbach have not won in 9 visits to the Gottlieb Daimler stadium, their last win coming in 1994 and that run looks set to continue today.

They travel without Keller, Daems, Jansen and top scorer Neuville and have yet to record an away win in the Bundesliga.

A win for Stuttgart will take them above Bayern and up into third place in the table and that is my confident selection.

4 points Stuttgart 1.55 expekt/ betfair.

Good Luck.


I have to stick with Sunday regulars Cagliari for the trip to Empoli.

The hosts are unbeaten in 7 and are very sound defensively, only conceding 9 in 12 starts, however, they are without 3 defenders today and that could be key.

Cagliari are equally tough to beat, with 5 draws in a row on the road. Infact, between them, these two sides have drawn 15 of 24 starts this season, so another stalemate would hardly surprise.

4 points Cagliari +1/4 ball asian line 1.83
1 point Empoli-Cagliari draw 2.90 general.

Good Luck.

GOOD MORNING ...........

Lots to go through today, will put up three selections in the next hour or so. One each in Italy, Germany and England.

Please check back.

Saturday, November 25, 2006


I am going to pass on two further selections for today's football and leave it at that.

Had a lot of ideas for the UK matches, but the weather, it is very wet and windy, has made me a little cautious.

First up , we can take Hamilton at home to Ross County. The visitors have played a lot of football recently and make the difficult trip without 6 regulars and with several other doubts.

Hamilton have some injury concerns of their own, but not to the same extent. They play on a plastic pitch, which gives them a big advantage and where they recently inflicted Gretna's first away defeat of the season.

My second choice is the "over" in the Bradford-Bournemouth Division 1 fixture, which is very attractively priced. Both create a host of chances and have hit the woodwork 17 times between them this season.

City must go for the win and are a potent attacking force on their day, equally, both are capable of "collapsing" once behind, expect goals here.

4 points Hamilton -3/4 ball asian line 2.12.
3 points Bradford-Bournemouth over 2.5 goals asian line 2.25.

Good Luck.


Maybe not the biggest game of the day, but one of the more interesting.

Alan Buckley has recently returned to Grimsby, for what I think is his third spell in charge. He is something of a legend there and expectation levels have increased. After coming so close to promotion last season, the current campaign has been a disaster, so much so, that survival is their one and only concern.

Town took a surprise point away to league highflyers Wycombe last week and will be greedily coveting a further three today. Buckley has signed three players on loan, all from Championship clubs, including the highly promising Martin Patterson, a 19 yo striker from Stoke who is averaging a goal every two games in the reserves. He is very well thought of at Stoke and could be a revelation at this level.

Accrington are in a very poor run, have lost 5/6, conceding 14 goals and have only one clean sheet in 12. They have lost their two best players in Roberts (Ipswich) and Craney(Swansea), who have scored half of Stanley's goals this season and today, will also be without their captain Cavanagh (injured) and Harris (suspended) .

Buckley to keep the locals happy.

4 points Grimsbly -1/2 ball 2.10 general, you may find bigger in places, shop around.

Good Luck.


No, that is not a spelling mistake, I am still trying to recover from the Cheltenham game last night, can't bring myself to mention their opponents by name.

I will be back in 30 minutes, with my first selection for today.

Good Luck.

Friday, November 24, 2006


After so long in the wilderness, Blackpool look to be finally heading in the right direction.

They are unbeaten in 9 and seem to be building a squad, capable of mounting a serious promotion challenge.

The goals have been flowing, with 14 in their last 6 starts and striker Ben Burgess, a player I know well and who is prolific at this level, is now fit and pushing for a recall. Which will make them even more potent up front.

Boss Simon Grayson, has strenthened the squad with three very nice loan signings this week and they travel to play a Tranmere side mising several players. Pool are bursting with confidence, sure to take a large away following and are creating 3 chances per game more, than the hosts.

They should be very capable of claiming at least a point, as they have on their last 3 visits to Prenton Park. Think a lay of the home team is the way to go.

lay 3 points Tranmere 2.36 betfair.

Good Luck.


Brentford reached a new low at 16.55 last Saturday, when they trooped off Griffin Park, having lost 4-0 at home to Crewe, in front of their first sub 5,000 attendance in almost two years.

So, as the final whistle blew and the Bees could boast just one win inside 9o minutes in 21 starts, the demonstations started.

Inevitably, the axe fell and Leroy Rosenior was dismissed after just 5 months in charge. Cannot say that this came as a huge surprise, the problems and situation he inherited, were almost insurmountable, as detailed in my post of July 10th ...

However, the players he brought in, admittedly on a very limited budget, were not up to scratch and worse of all, not committed enough. The first you can live with, but to see players in your club colours, seemingly not bothered, that is too much to bear. Leroy was too nice a guy and the wrong man for the job.

It is amazing the transformation that has taken place at the club this week.

Scott Fitzgerald has been appointed Caretaker Manager, a popular figure at Brentford, he wants the job on a permanent basis. Scott is very excited by this chance and his enthusiasm has rubbed off on others. More importantly he has tightened up on discipline, there were no "free days" this week and the players have trained hard every day.

I cannot overstate the change in attitude during these sessions, Fitzgerald said that " the mood (in the squad) had been gaining momentum throughout what had been a fantastic week".

Simon Cox has rejoined Brentford on loan from Premiership Reading, the 19 yo midfielder will be a major boost and should go straight into the side tonight.

The club have organised free travel to the game and 600-700 supporters should make the trip.

The situation at Cheltenham is just as bad, they have lost 10 from 11 starts. They have an extensive injury list, which is slowly easing, but have let star player Grant McGann go to Barnsley this week. He is/was easily their prize asset and will be sorely missed, they are also without suspended striker Steve Guinan.

Despite all that has gone before, I feel that the Bees will arrive with some new found spirit and maybe the more confident of the two teams. Do not think that they will return home empty handed and are my first selection of the day.

4 points Brentford +1/4 ball asian line 1.90.

Good Luck.

Thursday, November 23, 2006


To say that Brugge have turned their Jan Breydel Stadium into a fortress, would be something of an understatement.

They have lost just 3 of their last 76 home league games (winning 80%) and conceded just 44 goals in that period. A truly amazing record in a league where only around 50% of games are home wins and the average game produces over 2.7 goals.

Dinamo are the best team in Romania, but will be without most of their midfield tonight and do not travel too well.

Brugge played well enough in the opening draw with Leverkusen and for an hour, in the loss to Tottenham, only 3 points will do for them tonight, pretty sure that Dinamo will come for the point.

4 points Club Brugge -1/4 ball asian line 1.86.

Good Luck.


I must say that, having seen Rovers on several occasions recently, they have left me singularly unimpressed.

They have not won a league game in almost two months and look decidedly goal shy, having scored just twice in 6 starts.

UEFA Cup results have been better and their two group wins to date, mean that they do not NEED to win this evening. The 3-0 victory over Basle was particularly lucky and extremely flattering, goalkeeping heroics from Brad Friedel keeping them in the game.

Tonight they will be without two defensive kingpins in Neil and Henchoz.

Feyenoord have recovered after a poor start to the season and are on a five match winning run, including a fine 3-2 win over AZ, at the weekend.

Their extensive injury list, which has plagued them all season, is slowly easing and coach Erwin Koeman has more options at his disposal, than for many weeks.

The Rotterdam giants need the win, both to keep the run going and to further their european ambitions, they are a decent price to achieve it.

4 points Feyenoord -1/4 ball asian line 2.075.

Good Luck.


Miami Dolphins quarterback, Joey Harrington returns to former club Detroit, looking for his 4th win in a row, a run which sees his team's, albeit slim, play off hopes resurrected.

These wins have come against strong teams in, Chicago, Kansas and Minnesota.

Harrington, cousin of the golfer Padraig, was 18-37 as a starter in Detroit and never won 3, let alone 4 straight games for them. He is certain of a warm reception from the tough Detroit crowd, who were never slow to boo him when he was a Lion.

Detroit are 2-8 on the season and in their two most recent losses, only posted 13 points against San Francisco ( conceding 26.5 average) and 10 verses Arizona ( giving up 23.3 per game) .

They are banged up today and miss several key starters including Kevin Jones, who has scored 7 of their 20 touchdowns, has 636 yards rushing, the rest of the team have 188 yards between them and is their 3rd highest receiver.

I have to side with the Dolphins to inflict more Thanksgiving Day misery on Detroit.

All three of today's games are live on Sky TV.

4 points Miami Dolphins to beat Detroit 1.71 betfair.

Good Luck.


Two losers yesterday, no complaints about the Roma result, they went looking for the draw and paid the penalty. However, felt that Chelsea should at least have earned a point, anyway, all in the past now.

I am going to quickly discuss the two early kick offs today, both taking place in the Czech Republic.

My strongest selection is for Ajax to collect the three points. Sparta have very little chance to progress in the competition and will concentrate on the domestic league, where they face a three way battle with Liberec and Mlada.

Money tends to talk in these group fixtures and I think it is significant, that every Czech bookmaker slashed the odds on the visitors yesterday. There has been continued support on the asian handicap this morning and the 2.10 available on the exchanges might not last too long.

Ajax have been rebuilding, once again, they are close to being a very good team and are fielding their strongest available eleven tonight, looking for the win that should virtually seal their progress.

In the other tie, Slovan Liberec host Grasshoppers, given the group standings and the remaining fixtures, the draw will have very little benefit to either side. Under the circumstances the 2.16 available for the home win looks too big to pass.

Liberec are strong at home, losing only once in 24 league starts and even the potent Seville attack, could not score against them in the opening group tie. They have lost only a quarter of some 40+ european ties and came within 11 minutes of qualifying for the Champions League.

Following a very difficult run of fixtures, they may well see tonight as a welcome distraction and a relaxed Slovan can defeat the Swiss side, who are lacking in experience and conceded 5 goals at home to AZ in their earlier outing.

3 points Liberec -1/2 ball 2.16 betfair.
5 points Ajax -1/2 ball 2.10 betfair.

Back later.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006


A point will ensure Roma progress to the next stage, a win will give them the chance to win the group with victory over Valencia on matchday 6.

They could hardly be in better form with 4 straight wins, rattling in 14 goals in the process.

Donetsk have yet to claim a group stage win and are conceding at a rate of 2.5 per game, losing the reverse fixture 4-0. They are likely to be without 3-4 key players tonight and have lost four successive home games to Italian sides.

The Ukranian's still have a very small chance to qualify, that will force them forward, indeed they have looked to attack in all 4 group games and that has maybe been their undoing. It should certainly play into Roma's hands tonight.

Much has been written about the weather in Donetsk, but according to the sources I checked, it is like to be +1 or +2 degrees, a little colder than Rome, but nothing to really trouble the visitors.

4 points Roma -1/4 ball asian line 1.93.

Good Luck.


These two have already qualified for the next stage of the Champions League and most people are expecting a very tight affair at Anfield tonight.

However, I just have a feeling that, like the Lille-Anderlecht match up yesterday, we may well see an open encounter.

Liverpool seem much happier at home, where they have scored in every game, at least twice in 9/10 matches, averaging 2.5 goals per fixture, they have conceded in 6 of those 10. Pool are also creating many chances away from home, but without converting them.

PSV are equally at home on the road and have scored in 9/10 away ties, notching 2 or more on 7 occasions, at an average of 2.10 per game.

Both will want to win the group, but with several big teams looking booked for a runners up spot, it is debatable how valuable this will turn out to be. Anyway, I suspect we will see a more relaxed Liverpool tonight and hopefully PSV will follow suit. It COULD be quite entertaining.

4 points over 2 goals Liverpool-PSV asian line 1.98 .

Back later.

Good Luck.


Jose Mourinho has named his strongest possible squad for tonight's match in Germany.

The odds available for Chelsea, are pretty much the same as for their away game at Barcelona and that cannot be correct. They still need one point to ensure their progress as group winners and will not want to leave, even qualification in doubt, until the final match, however easy that may look on paper.

I do not buy into Chelsea doing what they can to put Barce out, the Spanish champions seem certain to get their 3 points tonight and whatever happens in Bremen, Werder are going to have to avoid defeat in their final match and most likely win.

Jose loves all these mind games and as his team face a titanic battle with Manchester United at the weekend, he would see first place in the group as giving his side a psycological edge, especially after the United debacle last night.

Regardless, I do not see Chelsea losing and suggest these odds will drop during the day and it is unlikely they will be seen this big again this season. Werder have looked a little tired in recent outings and are without a couple of regulars today, Lampard is unavailable and will be replaced by Ballack, which tells you all you need to know.

4 points Chelsea +1/4 ball asian line 1.80.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ...........

Another good day with 3 out of 4 winners and a very nice daily profit, we are already in double figures for the week.

Of course, it would have been 4/4 and 100%, if RVN had put away that 89th minute penalty, I thought he never missed.

I am looking at three bets for today and will be back with the first a little later this morning.

Please check back.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006


Final post of the day, just a few lines about these two matches.

Lyon do not seem at their best right now, they have struggled to beat two of the weaker teams in Ligue 1 in recent games. I can accept that motivation may be something of a problem for those matches, but they could have lost both.

Tonight they are without Fred, Govou, Wiltord and Benzema and you just get the impression that Real are out for revenge, the French champions having got much the better of three recent meetings.

I expect Real to win tonight and to continue their recent high scoring run.

Anderlecht are taking some 12,000 supporters with them to France, along with a team weakened by injuries to key players and with a 3rd choice goalkeeper.

They will be forced to "go for it" as only a win will realistically, keep their qualification hopes alive. Lille can seal a place in the last 16 with a win, should the other group result go their way.

Therefore, I expect the match to become more and more open and see some value in the "over", especially with the two goal option.

3 points Real Madrid -1/2 goal 2.0 betfair.
4 points over 2 goals Lille-Anderlecht asian line 1.75.

Good Luck.


The hosts had quite a roller coaster of a weekend, their coach lost his brother, who died in a tragic accident and CSKA clinched the domestic championship.

I am going to suggest that we oppose them today, that match on Saturday was played in Vladivostock, which, according to my schoolboy atlas, is a 15,000 km round trip, through 7 time zones and a 10 hour flight ! What an ordeal and hardly the ideal preparation for tonight's match.

Porto will have to look for the win, but a draw will not be too bad for CSKA, it will leave their fate in their own hands, with a trip to group whipping boys Hamburg, still to come.

It is hardly a trip into the unknown for Porto, the pair met two years ago, the Portugese champions winning 1-0 in Moscow, despite the temperature hitting -11 c. It will be a cosy zero degrees today at kick off, so shortsleeves for all.

BTW read that 10 crates of champagne were drunk on the plane trip back to Moscow, not sure how true that is.

lay 3 points CSKA to win 2.40 betfair.

Good Luck.


The Gunners create chances for fun, the problem comes in converting them.

I have never seen a side miss so many open goals as they did in the home tie with CSKA Moscow, it could easily have been 5-0 at half time.

It has been much the same story all season, wave after wave of attack went unrewarded against Newcastle at the weekend and the floodgates will open soon.

They have created more chances, over 17 per game, than any other team in the Premiership. In Europe, they have dominated possession, with 56% and 34 minutes of control, across all matches, easily the highest of the 32 clubs.

Tonight they face a Hamburg unit which has just pride and prize money to play for, being booked for the wooden spoon in Group G, following 4 losses and 10 goals conceded.

The visitors to the Emirates Stadium are in dire trouble in the Bundesliga and remain firmly rooted in the relegation zone, with just 11 points from 13 starts, some 17 less, than at the same stage last season.

They are missing a handful of regulars tonight and with Bayern Munich coming to the AOL Arena at the weekend, followed by a trip to fellow relegation fighters Bochum, their priorities must surely lie elsewhere.

Arsenal to cover the handicap, Henry to score a couple.

5 points Arsenal -1.5 goals 1.67 general ..... stan james/blue square.

Back shortly.

Good Luck.


4-4 !

Well, I missed all the excitement yesterday, was unable to follow the German game "in running" and only saw the final result.

4-4 was not quite the draw I envisaged, but they all count and a good start to the week.

Last week was another profitable one, not exactly at the halcyon levels of the previous one, but perfectly acceptable.

Looking at 3-4 bets today and also have some other information to pass on. Will put the first post online by 13.30 cet.

Good Luck.

Monday, November 20, 2006


Sorry guys, I wrote reviews of two matches tonight, both were lost due to a Blogger fault and then it was not possible to post anything at all.

It appears to be OK now, but is getting very late, so in a nutshell, my selections were .....

4 points Karlsruher SC-Hansa Rostock draw 3.25 unibet/betfair.

4 points Belenenses +1/4 ball asian line 1.80.

Two unbeaten sides in Bundesliga 2, best attack against best defence. Draw will leave them both 7 points clear of 4th placed team, with easy looking fixtures at the weekend.

Draws in this division (32%) are 10% higher than in each of last 3 seasons.

Belenenses are 4-5-0 on all visits to Amadora, who have only collected 4 points all season, +1/4 ball looks something of a gift, already regret writing that comment.

Hopefully everything will be back to normal tomorrow.

Good Luck.


Don't you just love them ?

It is looking like two selections for tonight's football, will have them both online between 16.00- 17.00 cet.

Please check back.

Sunday, November 19, 2006


I am interested in three matches in Spain today.

First up Atletico Madrid, who, following a disappointing sequence of results, got back on track last week, with a 3-1 win over Villarreal. Victory today could take them into one of the coveted Champions League spots.

Fernando Torres and Sergio Aguero will continue up front and could have plenty of joy against the hosts defence missing Alvaro and Alexis, who are both suspended.

Going to give one final chance to Real Sociedad to kick start their season, they face a Real Betis side, who are yet to register a point on the road.

With tough trips to Barcelona and Atletico up shortly, anything less than 3 points today, will leave them with a mountain to climb at the foot of the table.

Finally, I am going to oppose Barcelona, who travel to the island for a meeting with Mallorca, who boast the meanest defence in La Liga, having only conceded six goals all season.

The European champions have a vital Champions League tie in midweek and with a squad missing a host of star names, they can ill afford any further injuries.

5 points Atletico Madrid level ball asian line 1.75
4 points Real Sociedad -1/4 ball asian line 2.22
4 points Mallorca +3/4 ball asian line 2.02

Good Luck.


The hosts are really struggling this season and are still without a win in Serie A.

Today they must face free scoring Atalanta, who have registered 13 goals in their last six starts, which is double what Chievo have "amassed" in 11 matches. Infact, only once have their frustrated fans had a goal to cheer in their Verona home.

Team news hardly offers much comfort, the visitors have a fully fit squad to choose from, Chievo are missing 5 key players.

4 points Atalanta +1/4 ball asian line 1.81.

Good Luck.

ROUND UP .......

Saturday was quite pleasing, James Blake, Swindon and WBA won comfortably to ensure a nice profit.

"Rafa" threw the proverbial kitchen sink at Federer but could not snatch a set. Fed-ex delivered the goods everytime it really mattered.

Going to try a small bet on Blake to take a set, but Federer to win, so 3-1, 3-2. Combined odds are around 2.90 which seems value to me. At times the American can play blistering tennis and this can win him a set, but the trophy looks booked for Switzerland.

I will be back later today with the football.

2 points Federer to win 3-1 sets 4.0 ladbrokes
1 point Federer to win 3-2 sets 11.0 stan james

Good Luck.

Saturday, November 18, 2006


Tony Mowbray's WBA have a squad full of quality and are close to full strength today for the visit of fellow promotion hopefuls, Burnley.

Paul Robinson is back after his 3 game suspension and Chaplow, Quashie and Gera are all available and pushing for recalls.

One day soon the Baggies are going to hammer someone, they hit the woodwork 4 times in the first 70 minutes or so, in the loss at home to Norwich last week. Only Southampton have created more chances this season and their luck must surely be due to change.

Albion have two away games in the next 7 days and know that they must win today, 3 points will close them to within 7 points of Cardiff, at the top of the table and I think that will be the gap come 5 o'clock tonight.

5 points WBA -1/2 ball 1.91 general.

Good Luck.


A little news and two bets for the lower leagues.

The debacle that is Brentford FC continues and they have been further hampered by injuries today, that is all I really want to say, what has been allowed to happen at my club is a disgrace and it is too depressing to write any more.

Oldham's entire back four are missing today, when they host Bradford, the visitors create plenty of chances, only Swansea have had more attemps on goal in Division 1.

Now to the bets, Leyton Orient boss Martin Ling knows that he is on borrowed time, unless the O's can collect 3 points today. Performances have picked up of late, as has the injury situation and they can defeat high flying Yeovil at Brisbane Road.

The visitors have made the most of their chances this season, having totalled just 139 attempts on goal, a division low, yes, even 12 less than Brentford. These stats tend to catch up with you in the end and I feel Orient will win today, at decent odds.

Paul Sturrock has had time to steady the Swindon ship and can get their promotion push back on track when they visit Torquay this afternoon.

Sturrock will be sure of a warm welcome having coached Plymouth, but sure that he is man enough to handle that. Abuse from the crowd is worse, or better, at the lower levels because you can hear every word, that is the fun in going.

Torquay are in freefall, without a goal in 6 league starts and have only scored 5, in 7 home games all season.

Swindon have lost only once on the road and will be cheered on by a large travelling contingent, some 1500 Town fans are expected to make the trip.

3 points Leyton Orient 2.75 stan james ....... 2.60 is acceptable.
4 points Swindon -1/4 ball asian line 2.05.

Back later.

Good Luck.


OK, it's not the final, but everyone got the match they wanted, the sponsors, audience, television, Nadal, everyone, except maybe Roger Federer.

He will surely be a little wary as the top 2 in the world square up, for the 6th time this season in Shanghai.

Rafa leads the h2h 6-2, 4 wins on clay and 2-2 on faster surfaces, one of the losses came in their last meeting, when Roger held all the aces on his hallowed Wimbledon centre court. Nadal still took a set and snatched two of them in his other loss, a 5 set defeat in Miami.

See no reason why the young Spaniard cannot take at least one set today, he has managed it 8 times in 8 meetings.

In the second semi, I think that James Blake has far more chance than his odds of 2.20, which equate to 45.5 % would indicate, at worse, for me, he is 50/50.

Blake should get a lot of joy on the Argentine players serve and there will be plenty of break points here, the two have never met, so no previous history. You can never be sure which Nalbandian will turn up and my money can only go on the "outsider".

I will be back in an hour or so with my first football post. Going to stick with the UK action today and have several strong selections.

lay 4 points Federer to win 2-0 sets 1.75 betfair.
3 points James Blake to beat David Nalbandian 2.22 betfair.

Good Luck.

Friday, November 17, 2006


Following several very poor seasons, during which, the ever loyal Stockport County fans always kept the faith. There is finally light at the end of a very long dark tunnel.

Despite a poor start to this campaign, County have won 6 from the last 8 starts and are within touching distance of the play off places. Their faithful supporters have responded and over 2,000 are making the trip to Chester tonight.

City's crowds have struggled to creep above that figure, so it is likely to feel like a home fixture for the visitors.

Chester are struggling, especially up front, they have created the fewest attempts on goal in all of Division 2 and have scored in only one of their last 5 league games.

County to keep the dream alive.

4 points Stockport +1/4 ball asian line 1.80.

Good Luck.


Feel sure we will see plenty of action tonight, when the Championship leaders host free scoring and conceding, QPR.

Rangers away games have produced an average of 3.5 goals, which is slightly higher than their overall total of 3.47, every single one of their games this season has produced at least 2 goals. They are "over" in 7 of their last 8 starts

City are averaging 2.76 and they are scoring 2 per game at Ninian Park, in striker Michael Chopra, they have one of the Football League's hot properties and Newcastle supporters must be wondering why he was allowed to leave so cheaply. He will be looking to build on his total of 11 goals against the leaky R's defence.

4 points over 2.5 goals Cardiff-QPR 1.86 betfair.

Good Luck.


Going to cover both of today's remaining round robin matches, briefly, in this post.

Firstly, I strongly favour Nadal to defeat Davydenko, the Spaniard has improved with every minute on court and certainly looks the fresher of the two.

Davydenko has played over 40 matches since Wimbledon, twice as many as his opponent and to be honest, it looks it.

The winner will meet Federer in the semi-finals and Nadal lives for these matches, he is the only player in the tournament that WANTS to play the number one and I think that is key motivation for today .

In the remaining tie, Blake meets Robredo in a "dead rubber", however, should Blake win today and go on to take the tournament, he will be unbeaten. This means that his prize money will be doubled, so $1.52m instead of $700k, in addition, there are extra ranking points up for grabs.

So, plenty of incentive for the American, who will be keen to get things finished quickly and conserve his energy for the battles ahead. Robredo's head is already on the plane home and some well earned vacation. Like Blake in two.

4 points Nadal to beat Davydenko 1.57 general
3 points Blake to win 2-0 sets 2.22 betfair

Back later with some football selections for tonight.

Good Luck.

Thursday, November 16, 2006


Hoping that history will repeat here, last year Fed-Ex won all his round robin matches 2-1 in sets, one coming against today's opponent. He has won his first two here, by exactly the same score.

Think we can lay him to win 2-0, a bet that worked so well in the Federer-Roddick match, just two days ago.

Ljubicic was serving huge against Nalbandian and we all saw the problems the world number one, had with Roddick's "bombs".

H2h is, as you would expect firmly with Federer, he leads 10-3, but in their last meeting earlier this year in Miami, all three sets went to tie breaks. In fact, 6 of the last 10 sets they have played, went to a breaker, so I also see value in the 3.20 offer for the opening set to go beyond 10 games, therefore, we win if either player takes it 7-5 or 7-6.

lay 6 points Federer to win 2-0 sets 1.48 betfair ( exposure 2.88 points) up to 1.50 is fine.
1 point first set to go beyond 10 games 3.20 stan james.

Good Luck.


Wow ! Distinct shortage of football action today, we will have to reply on the tennis to provide our entertainment.

Nalbandian's only real chance to progress in the tournament is to win in straight sets, there are some other scenarios , but are so slim as to be almost nil.

Not sure how committed he will be to the cause and his state of mind will hardly have been helped by the news that his 9 yo cousin died in a freak accident yesterday, very tragic.

If Roddick takes the first set, the second could be very quick and I see value in the odds for him to win 2-0.

The Argentine player really struggled with Ljubicic's serve, the Croatian banging down 30 aces and it is hard to see him faring any better against A-Rod.

3 points Roddick to win 2-0 sets 1.95 betfair, you may find bigger in places 2.0 bet 365.

Back later with a strong bet on the Federer-Ljubicic match.

Good Luck.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006


Both tennis bets today won, that makes 8 in a row, at average odds of over 2.28.

I also mentioned two other bets on the tennis this week, but did not make them selections, both won at odds of 2.40+.

Good Luck.


I strongly favour the "over"option here, even though the goal line is set @ 3.5.

The Cypriot group games to date have provided an average of 6 goals per game and they have adopted a very gung-ho approach, which makes for fun viewing.

Germany's qualification matches have averaged 6.33 and the dour sides of old are long distant memories. Who would ever have dreamt of a German team 2-0 up away from home, pushing for a third and then a fourth goal !

The asian line has dropped, but shop around, bigger odds are still available.

3 points over 3.5 goals Cyprus-Germany 1.83 stan james.

Good luck.


Earlier in the week, Poland were going to be a very big bet for me, but they do have a lot of injuries. A Polish contact assures me that they will not lose (!), but I have slashed my stakes.

To be honest, this was as much an anti Belgium bet as a pro Poland one, the home country, both at international and domestic levels, seem to have gone backwards.

Poland and their huge travelling army of supporters, which may well form the bulk of the crowd tonight, will be very keen to build on the fine 2-1 win over Portugal, which put them back into contention after a very shakey start to their campaign.

2 points Poland +1/4 ball asian line 1.84

Good Luck.


I am going to put up 3 football bets this afternoon, but will not be writing much, got too involved with the tennis and have simply run out of time.

Regular readers will know that, I would not put anything online without doing my homework, even so, without any real analysis, stakes will be kept to a minimum.

Like the "under" here, both will play a cautious game and I feel the fear of defeat ,may be greater than the desire for victory. Seriously thought about backing the draw, but consider the"under", even at low odds, offers greater value.

Israel are unbeaten in 13 European Championship and World Cup qualification matches and have not lost in Tel Aviv for 7 years.

Croatia have a very tight defence and have yet to concede in their group matches to date. Coach Slaven Bilic has openly stated that he would take a draw now.Both sides have a couple of starters missing.

Will be surprised if the "under" does not oblige, if those odds are too short for you, the half time stalemate at around 2.0 also looks tempting.

3 points under 2.5 goals Israel-Croatia 1.60 betfair.

Back shortly.

Good Luck.


This may surprise some of you, having sided with several outsiders to take a set recently, going to switch sides and take the world number 2, to win in double quick time.

Rafa leads the h2h 3-0, 7-0 in sets and 42-20 in games. In their meeting in Madrid last year, which many players have observed to be the closest surface to Shanghai, Robredo held just one break point against Nadal.

He seemed to run out of steam against Davydenko and glued to the baseline, or rather two metres behind it, he doesn't match up well with today's opponent, as he plays to Nadal's strengths.

Expect a reasonably quick win and the dream of the 6th meeting of the year, most peoples nightmare, with Federer still alive.

4 points Nadal to win 2-0 sets 1.73 betfair.

Good Luck.


Looking like 5 posts today, definitely got two bets for the action in China, where the tournament has been absolutely first class and some confident football wagers to follow.

The fantastic run continues, another profit yesterday, on a day of very limited choice.

Anyway, on with the tennis. In the opener it is James Blake for me, to continue his domination of Nickolay Davydenko. He leads the h2h 4-0, the last 3 wins coming in straight sets and in each, the American has had an incredible number of break points, he obviously has a very good read on the Russian's serve.

All of their previous meetings were on hard courts, but Blake looks very much at home here and is my strong selection. Davydenko appears a little weary to me, this is his 95th match of the year and no one on tour has played more, he made over 50 unforced errors in his win over Robredo and will have to pick up his game to win today.

4 points Blake to beat Davydenko 1.81 betfair.

Back shortly.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006


This friendly takes place at Loftus Road, the home of QPR, plenty of London based Aussies are sure to attend and will make up the bulk of the crowd.

However, this looks to be the only advantage Australia will have. Vidmar, Popovic, Tiatto and Lazaridis have all retired from international duty, Kewell, McDonald, Skoko, Neill, Cahill and Viduka are all missing, Emerton and Moore are carrying injuries and are not certain to start.

Very much a "b" team at best and those that are starting, are unhappy about the scheduling of this fixture.

Strong squad for Ghana and their superb midfield is intact, Essien, Appiah and Muntari all look likely to start.

The very big prices for a Ghana victory, have all disappeared, but the -1/4 ball asian line is still acceptable and is my selection.

If you are based in the UK and near a Ladbrokes betting shop, they are offering 2.75 on their coupon which they will lay for nominal stakes.

4 points Ghana -1/4 ball asian line 2.03 // similar odds available on the exchanges

Good Luck.


I was interested in Ljubicic here, the 2.42 looks big, but cannot find any updated information regarding the big serving Croatian's fitness. So have decided to pass.

Keep getting the feeling that Nalbandian will have one eye on the Davis Cup final and may not push himself too hard this week.

If he looks good in the opening exchanges, I may bet a little in running on Lubo, however, as far as the blog is concerned, no bet.

Back later with the football.

Good Luck.

Good start to the week .........

All three bets won yesterday, as did James Blake, I will not count him as a selection, as the post was put up quite late.

Outside of the tennis, there is not too much action today, think I have found something nice for the international football tonight and will post that this afternoon.

Going to start with the opening match in Shanghai, where Roger Federer takes on Andy Roddick. The world number one really owns this match up, leading the h2h 11-1, they last met in the US Open Final, where the American at least managed to take a set and earned a very respectable 8 break points.

Federer dropped a set in his opener with David Nalbandian, who is something of a bogeyman for the Swiss superstar. However, I see no reason why Roddick cannot do the same and take the match into a third set.

In this tournament last year Fedex dropped a set in each of his round robin matches, odds of 3.0 + for the #5 ranked player in the World to do the same, look perfectly acceptable.

lay 5 points Federer to win 2-0 sets 1.47 betfair ( max exposure 2.35 points) any price up to 1.50 is fine.

I will be back a little later with my views on the Ljubicic-Nalbandian match.

Good Luck.

Monday, November 13, 2006


.... travel to play Greuher Furth, knowing that a win will take them into the top 3, of Bundesliga 2.

Furth have been very sloppy at home conceding 10 goals in just 5 starts. Given that Kaiserslautern's recent away form stands up to close inspection, having taken a point at unbeaten Duisburg and all 3 at previously undefeated 1860, they should arrive in very confident mood.

Crowds at the Fritz-Walter stadium have held up well, just dipping for the last home game, money talks and this seemed to inspire them, strangely enough, to their biggest win of the season. They will want to build on that victory and with 4 of the next 6 away from home, their form on the road will have to continue to improve.

Lautern should be in the top division, with Karlsruhe and Rostock showing no signs of letting up and holding a healthy lead over the field, they will want to enter the winter break, no worse than 3rd. Think they will take something from tonight's match and stay in touch with the top two, who have still to travel to the "Fritz".

3 points Kaiserslautern +1/4 ball asian line 1.77.

I will be back early in the morning, there may be something for the tennis, Blake won over Nadal today, with Robredo taking a set.

Good Luck.


This match really does look nailed on to be "under".

The odds on offer, at first glance, seem a little low, however, upon reflection they appear to offer a little value.

Last 8 h2h meetings have been "under" and Bari have not even found the net, in the last 4 home meetings between the two.

The hosts are "under" in 5 of their last 6 starts, their home games are averaging 1.6 goals and they have a mean of 1.9 in all games this season.

Napoli are "under" in each of their last 6, are 1.4 in away ties and also 1.9 for all serie B fixtures.

Bari should be the fresher of the two, having not played for 9 days, this is Napoli's third tough games in the last 7 days.

4 points Bari-Napoli under 2.5 goals 1.50 stan james, similar odds available on betfair.

Good Luck.