Monday, November 29, 2010

MONDAY ....


CHAMPIONSHIP
LEICESTER CITY - NOTTINGHAM FOREST

These two local rivals were busy ahead of the loan deadline day, with City bringing in Chris Kirkland and Roman Bendnar and Forest adding Aaron Ramsey and Marcus Tudgay, four eyecatching signings which have got the locals buzzing and even with the distraction in Spain, plenty of eyes will be focused on this match, with both clubs looking to push for a playoff spot. Forest, sitting just three points off the pace are the better equipped of the two and if they could just clear up the injury room a little, they would be amongst the favourites for a post season place. We have talked before about how visiting boss Billy Davies normally improves his teams through the course of the season, making full use of his scouts and the video room, to learn as much as possible about opponents and in his six seasons as a Championship coach, he has the best record by far from November to January.

His Forest team went four months unbeaten at this stage last season and are again yet to lose this month, including a fine win at highflying Cardiff last time out. Very interesting stat here in that of the 16 goals that they have conceded this season, 12 have come in the first half, just four after, giving that City are the division's low opening half scorers, this might be the ideal match up for Forest who come on strong after the break, when they have a 8-8-2 record.
This is a good indication of ability with the other best second half teams being QPR ( league leaders), Cardiff (2nd) and Norwich (5th), as you might expect, the better teams get stronger later in the game and if Forest can keep this tight early, then they should have enough about them to go on and win this, or at least claim a draw and this is another game where I cannot agree with the oddsmakers. Ramsey and Tudgay will give them an extra touch of class and give Davies options for tonight, Earnshaw is rated 50-50, but he loves these games and I believe he will play some part and Nathan Tyson the forgotten front man at Forest , is also ready to stake his claim after missing out at Cardiff.

Nottingham Forest +1/2 ball 1.85 .


Good Luck.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

SUNDAY .... A FRIEND TO RANGERS ......


Leeds got themselves a hard earned point in a game of very few chances yesterday, neither keeper had a single save to make in the first half, although it did open up a little after the break. Reading were the better of the two and given their problems ahead of the game, which were outlined yesterday, this bodes very well for them in the coming months, especially when their treatment room has cleared a little. Having said all that, United have also tightened up considerably and they are certainly not the same team defensively who conceded ten at home to Cardiff City and Preston North End ( !!) and can also look forward to an exciting 2011.


Talking of Cardiff, I have just watched extended highlights of their top of the table clash with QPR, in a match that was full of quality and a fine advert for Championship football. City boss Dave Jones was livid after his side were denied just about as clear a penalty as you will ever see, when Jay Boothroyd was clearly tripped in the box and the defender left his foot there for several seconds ! It was impossible for anyone, let alone referee Kevin Friend, who was within touching distance, to have missed it and with just minutes to play, it would most likely have earned the visitors a point. Rangers were worthy of the win though and now have a five point lead over City, but more importantly, with their goal difference, effectively a nine point advantage over third placed Swansea, so a fantastic weekend for Neil Warnock and his troops. Still saw the hard to please Warnock complaining to match officials about something at the final whistle, when in reality, he should have been busy adding Mr Friend to his Christmas Card list !


Good Luck.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

SATURDAY ....


Really busy day for me today, so I am just posting the one preview on the blog, therefore, no need to check back later. I am hugely involved in the golf from Dubai, as those of you who got the midweek email know and we have a very exciting weekend in prospect with that. I have a ticket for a match today which is sold out and am 50-50 about whether I can use it or not, which is frustrating, but business first !


Weather is bad in the UK, lots of snow around and those that missed out still have frozen and icy conditions to contend with. Pitches are never really a problem at the bigger clubs, but games can still be in doubt with surrounding areas deemed "unsafe", we are still in the dark ages when it comes to winter in this country !


CHAMPIONSHIP

Huge day in the Championship, with a couple of massive match ups, two of which I am very interested in....

READING - LEEDS UNITED

I really do not agree with the odds in this one, where the home side look terribly short to me. Don't get me wrong, I like the Royals and do not think that they will be too far away from the top six come May, but they are not in the best shape physically at the moment. I got a report from training yesterday and a whole host of players were only doing minimal work and are clearly carrying knocks and also heard from a seperate source that only 15 of what is/was a large squad are fully fit. Mick Mills is suspended and with Ingimarsson already out and Harte one of those doubtful, they are going to have to reshuffle the back line. In midfield, players like Tabb with his tireless industry and Kebe who has unbelievable pace, will be less effective carrying knocks, as I understand it, at least one, maybe both will be risked, with home boss Brian Mc Dermott having so few options.

Leeds come here in very good form and seem to have got away from their up and down start to the campaign, settling into a higher and more reliable level of performance. They are on a 5 match unbeaten run and feel that they should have won all five of those having led in the Hull and Norwich games too. The draw at Carrow Road last week was a very good performance with coach Simon Grayson calling the opening 45 minutes as good as anything they have produced in his time at the club. He is happy with the squad and choose not to get active ahead of the loan transfer window, although he did extend the deal for Andy O'Brien until into the new year. O'Brien's arrival coincided with the upturn in results and the vastly experienced defender is said to be very good value both on and off the pitch and a very positive influence on the training pitch and in the dressing room. United, as always, sold their full allocation of 4,300 tickets for today and will definitely make the most noise in what can be a quiet stadium at times, the support has been fantastic and I read that several of the players stood outside Norwich last week listening to their fans still singing in the stadium long after the match had finished and were very moved and motivated by the experience. United are a big club, they deserve to be in the top flight and it is not impossible that they could manage it this season. I see them in the better shape ot the two clubs today, they might get the chance, given the home side's problems to boss the midfield and will definitely get opportunities to score, United have registered 121 attempts on target this season, second highest in the division and have hit the woodwork 13 times, with no other club in double figures, so still room for improvement, getting a half goal start is an unexpected bonus in my opinion.

Leeds United + 0.5 1.98 + .

Good Luck.

Friday, November 26, 2010

FRIDAY ......


Just in case you are wondering, I am still alive guys !

Been incredibly busy this week, am on my way to watch a training session at a local club at the moment and it is VERY cold. The weather is set to play havoc with the games in the UK this weekend, more of that tomorrow, when I will definitely post a preview or two on here, Jack Frost permitting.

It also looks set to play a part in mainland europe this evening, having said that, I have only really looked at the Ligue 2 games in France, where I have three selections, but some of the matches there will be played in sub zero conditions, with the wind chill factor making it seem much colder . Time for some of those soft, overpaid footballers to earn their money, said he heading out of the door wearing seven layers of clothing !

Good Luck.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

QUICK UPDATE .....


I sent all my notes today (some 1800 words) to many readers of the blog and for those that have already ploughed through it and written to advise me accordingly, yes, I know that Swindon play at the County Ground ! Do not know what I was thinking and it should be burned into my memory as it was at the County Ground that I was punched for the first and only time (touch wood) inside a football stadium .............. aah happy days !


These are not selections, more thinking out loud, but following on from the stats below, which were written more as an aid for those of you who like betting "in running". The following half time quotes did stand out a little....


Frankfurt -0.25 2.33

Schalke - Bremen "over" 1.25 goals 2.17

Hannover level ball 2.20

Motherwell -0.25 2.21


fun to follow these, but purely "paper trading" for me atm.


Good Luck.

STAT UPDATE ....



We are roughly a third of the way through most of the major leagues and I thought about time for a "stat update". Going to look at the Bundesliga and SPL here and
might cover some other leagues in the next couple of days.

SPL : Motherwell are the strongest first half team, with an 8-3-2 record in the opening 45 minutes, incredibly Rangers are 5-3-5 at the break, meaning that they have been losing in as many games as they have led, unsurprisingly they have managed to turn most of those around, with five wins from losing positions, but there is a clear case for waiting for the game to unfold a little before jumping on the league leaders. Celtic have won the most games in the second period (ten) and are a perfect six from six going in level at the break. Inverness CT are another side strong after their cuppa and are 5-0-0 when ahead at half time, better than both the big two in that regard and this is not a side you want to chase the game against.

BUNDESLIGA: Some stunners here worthy of note. Frankfurt are 6-6-0 at half time and yet to go into the break trailing, unlike Hamburg, who have yet to lead with a 0-9-3 record. Fairly incredibly given how well they have started their season, Mainz have only led at the half in one of their 12 starts, you might think that would make them the strongest in the second period, but that honour goes to leaders Dortmund who have won nine second period's. Borussia are a bit of a machine once they hit their stride and are a perfect 10-0-0 when either drawing or leading at the break, so, if you want to beat them, best to get in front early.

BMG supporters have seen most second half goals, 34 in total, Bremen fans the most early doors, with 21 in the opening 45 minutes. Beware backing Kaiserslautern when leading, the Bundesliga newcomers have lost a massive 14 points from winning positions and need to learn how to close out matches fast. Now this is a very odd one, Bayern, Schalke and Bremen three of the big 4-5 clubs in Germany have each gone in level at the break in five matches, that's 15 games and have gone on to win .......... precisely none between them ! Bayern only scoring one goal in their five games.




Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....



CHAMPIONSHIP

QPR - PRESTON NORTH END

Going to start at Loftus Road, where highflying QPR entertain basement club Preston North End. Rangers remain unbetaen, but have been riding their luck a little recently with draws in six of their last seven starts, a couple of which they could, perhaps should have lost. The confidence level, which was through the roof 5-6 weeks ago, has dropped and boss Neil Warnock, who is never happy for too long, has been complaining about the size of his "small" squad, considering the resources at his disposal, he has little to moan about, but he will definitely be getting busy leading up to the transfer window. Hosts will be without Shaun Derry and Bradley Orr today, both of whom are suspended and I suspect that the highly aggressive Derry will be missed in midfield, especially given the business that visiting boss Darren Ferguson has done this week. He has been busy in the loan market, bringing in three players, Danny Pugh and Michael Tonge from Stoke City are two competitive midfielders, comfortable on the ball, with lots of experience at this level and above. This is what Preston, who have been very hard hit by injury all season, have been screaming out for, along with someone to shore up the left side of defence, come in Ritchie De Laet, who also joined from Manchester United, the 21yo Belgian international can play anywhere in the back four and was actively being chased by Leicester City, but Sir Alex preferred to let him join his son and stay in the North West, it is good to have contacts !

PNE have tended to perform with more freedom away from Deepdale this season, where there is less pressure from the fans, who have been quick to show their displeasure this season, they have won at Coventry and Leeds (scoring six !) and scored three and completely outplayed Burnley for 80 minutes, before somehow finding a way, against all odds, to lose a seven goal thriller. They have some talent in their ranks and can turn it on at times, the new additions will give them a greater combative edge and given Rangers inability to finish teams off at present, I like the visitors getting a full goal start.

Preston North End + 1 ball 2.19 .

Good Luck.

Friday, November 19, 2010

POINT OF SOME RETURN ......


2.BUNDESLIGA

OSNABRUCK - HERTHA BERLIN

I am keen on the straight draw in this game, it is not a bet I do too often, but do have a high strike rate with it and, of course, the odds are normally very attractive.These two clubs are polar opposites, Hertha are "big time charlies" at this level, they should never have been relegated last season, which was a major fall from grace after 13 seasons in the top flight, with the previous decade spent almost entirely in the top ten, with five top five placings. They play in the massive Olympiastadion, which holds almost 75,000 and the city desperately needs a team in the top division and the Bundesliga needs a side from the capital, so everything is geared up towards them making a speedy return. Much of the blame for relegation, rightly or wrongly, fell on the shoulders of coach Friedhelm Funkel, he was replaced in the summer with Markus Babbel, a big name looking to get his own career back on track, after things didn't work out for him at Stuttgart. He was given a massive playing budget, said to be circa 34m euros, with a remit to get promotion at any cost, this is/was the envy of all other clubs at this level and Babbel has used it well, Hertha are top of the table having lost just once in twelve starts, winning nine. That sole defeat came on the road at Paderborn last time out and whilst they got straight back on track with a 2-0 home defeat of Bochum on Monday, they will be wary away from home this evening, where, despite a fine 3-1-1 road record, they have only scored 5 goals, one per game on average. With a potential home six pointer with Duisburg a promotion rival next week, their priority tonight will be to avoid defeat and a point would see them extend their advantage over Duisburg to six points.

Osnabruck are also newcomers to the division, but did it the other way round, following promotion from 3.Liga last season, they did that on the back of a fantastic home record and it is again their record at their homely 16,000 capacity Osnatel stadium, which will decide their fate. They are 3-1-2 there this season and with a tough trip to strong home team Frankfurt next week, will be despearte not to lose this evening and for them even a single point will give them a cushion over the drop zone at least for 24 hours. However, one key point is that this match will be played under floodlights, which is when the home team and their noisy, passionate supporters really come alive. They have not lost a home fixture under lights for almost six years and are 3-1-0 here in night games this year, with a 9-3 goal difference, their two defeats coming in afternoon starts. They will also come into this game having had 56 hours more recovery time than Hertha and at this stage of the campaign, as we head towards the mid way point, that can be very valuable.

These friday fixtures have also tended to be close this season, last ten weeks ( 30 matches) have seen just 7 away wins, with 19 games ending "under" and only three producing more than three goals. Hertha have the quality, but given Osnabruck's record under floodlights and with both teams probably "happy" with a point and massive odds available for a stalemate, I have to make that my fairly confident selection.

Draw 3.60 + .... 3.75 + on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

SUNDAY ....


Not much time today, so briefly ....

NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
AZ - AJAX

The Ajax squad also looks a lot stronger today, with the return of El Hamdaoui and van der Wiel and it is time for the Amsterdam giants to push on domestically. They have been struggling for goals recently and conceding far too freely, with just one clean sheet in eight Eredivisie starts, but a 3-0 cup win in midweek, albeit against weak opponents, has given them something to build on and even against a strong home side today, I think we will see them going all out for the win to close the gap on the top two.


Three points would see them trail PSV by the same margin and with the team from Eindhoven coming to the Amsterday Arena next weekend, that is a mighty incentive. Ajax got a mighty wake up call with the home loss to Den Haag last week and with most of the team away on international call up after today, the importance of today's game has become crystal clear.Luis Suarez finally ended his goal drought in midweek and I feel we might see him follow up in a stadium where the visitors tend to do well and there are often goals.


Ajax have lost just one of six h2h meetings, three of those have produced five or more goals (six twice), including a 4-2 win here last season, when the Uruguay international scored a brace and El Hamdaoui scored for the hosts. I can see something similar today and will split my double unit stakes between Ajax and for it to rain goals.

Ajax -0.5 2.19

0.7 units "over" 4.5 goals 4.80 + ... 5.0 in places
0.3 units "over" 5.5 goals 9.0

Good Luck.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

SATURDAY ....


DIVISION 1

CARLISLE UNITED - SOUTHAMPTON

Saints travel North in very confident mood and now that boss Nigel Adkins has his team firing on all cylinders, the "best squad in the division" is closing in on a top two spot and promotion back to the Championship. Adkins has got the fitness levels at the club, which we have discussed previously up to near where he wants them and this combined with the exceptional talent he has at his disposal, has seen the results flow, with six wins from seven starts. Level of expectation is now so high that Adkins was critical of his side after a recent 4-0 win, saying that they have to pass the ball better !

In Lee Barnard and Rickie Lambert he has two top line strikers at this level, Lambert, along with Jose Fonte was rested in midweek and both will be eager to play today, but this is a team full of potential match winners, 17 yo Alex Chamberlain seems sure to go down the Bale and Walcott route, players like Dickson, Jaidi and Puncheon are fringe players atm, who would walk into anyother League 1 team, but two things have been key to the recent upturn in fortune. The loan signing of ultra dependable Richard Chaplow, whose deal has been extended to the end of the year and the return from injury of Adam Lallana, who makes them tick and is WAY too good to play in the third tier, he will be playing his football at a higher level next season, either with or without Saints.

Forget the league table, this is the best team in Division 1 and they like the pitch at Carlisle where the playing surface suits their style of football, weather has been bad in the UK, but forecast is dry and sunny for Brunton Park today, with not too much wind, so I am seeing few problems. I understand via an Adkins interview that training has gone unbelievably well this week and with a 4-1 utter demolition of United at Wembley in April at the hands of Saints still playing on the home team's mind, I can only see this going one way.

Southampton -0.25 2.02

Good Luck.

Friday, November 12, 2010

FRIDAY ......


LIGUE 2

LE MANS - EVIAN

Few would have picked this out as a promotion "six pointer" a few weeks ago, at that time, Evian had seemingly lost their way after a very strong start Ligue 2 life following promotion last season and Le Mans were struggling, especially on home soil, where they went four opening games without a win, but with both sides unbeaten in seven starts and lying in second and fourth spot respectively, that is exactly what this has become.

For the visitors, this season has gone about as well as they could have hoped, pretty sure that they would have seen a lower mid table finish as great success and if they had not been so hard hit by injury a month or so into the season and thereafter unable to rotate the squad too much, they could even have a few more points on board. There have been a few blips along the way, like the 5-1 thumping at Dijon, but basically they have performed with great credit, not feared anyone and especially on the road, where they have scored in their last ten starts, taken the game to their opponents, a very rare event in Ligue 2. They have both scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 outings and away from home, their games have averaged 3.14 goals, over a goal per game above the division average. They are very unlikely to sit back tonight and with two attack minded inform teams there seem sure to be goals.

Young home coach Arnaud Cormier has a very talented crop of players at his disposal, with a perfect mixture of youth and experience, they are looking to book a speedy return to Ligue 1 after relegation last season and after a sluggish start, they are starting to crank up through the gears and show their quality. They will be looking to take all three points this evening, which might well see them go top and with a break for the cup next week, that is a big incentive. Their is some real quality (for Ligue 2) here, including Frederic Thomas who has 300 starts in midfield under his belt, most at the highest level and two international strikers at opposite ends of their career. Ronald Lamah is a very promising 22yo who already has a handful of appearances for Belgium and alongside him is 33yo Thorstein Helstad, who has just earned a recall to his national team, after a couple of MOTM performances for his club. Helstad made his name at Brann, with 89 goals in 147 appearances, is vastly experienced and a real handful.

Le Mans were a bit unlucky to be relegated last year, after yo-yoing between the top two divisions in the early part of the millenium, they looked to have established themselves in the top flight, with four fairly eventless seasons, before losing their way after Christmas and a coaching merry go round, with four changes at the top, did not help. Now they have some stability at the helm and it is paying off. I expect them to go up, probably as champions and see them as likely winners tonight, but much prefer the "over" option, with both teams likely to score.

"over" 2.25 goals 2.12

Good Luck.

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

JOHNSTONE'S PAINT TROPHY ...


ROTHERHAM UNITED- HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

I suspect both teams could do without involvement in this competition, with promotion from their respective leagues a priority. Home boss was furious that his team drew their FA Cup tie at the weekend, with the implication that they needed a replay like another hole in their head. Normally a Yorkshire derby against a bigger club would be something to look forward to for the Millers, but this time round, I believe they just want the match out of the way and to be able to concentrate on the weekend league fixture.Town have promised to field their strongest possible side throughout the competition and try to win it for their supporters who would welcome a trip to Wembley. Boss Lee Clark has just had his 100th match in charge and his away win rate of 40% is the highest in modern times for the Terriers and his team clearly know how to win on the road. He has a big squad at his disposal, far more options than his United counterpart, who will surely be loooking to get through this unscathed. Visitors will have Joe Garner and Lee Croft, who were cup-tied at the weekend, fresh and available this evening, they have dominated previous meeetings between the two clubs winning on their last five trips to South Yorkshire, including in this competition last season, when they raced into a very early 2-0 lead and coasted home. I have to take the better team, especially being fairly certain that they are the more motivated of the two clubs, playing in wet and windy conditions in a wide open stadium, this should be the deciding factor.

Huddersfield -0.5 2.28

Good Luck.

Sunday, November 07, 2010

A TALE OF TWO ROBERTO'S ............


EPL
WBA -MANCHESTER CITY

Albion showed terrific commitment despite being reduced to nine men at Blackpool on monday, created enough chances to have got back into the game and are hardly likely to sit back this afternoon, on home soil, with all eleven players. That is simply not their way and boss Roberto Di Matteo (who always looks as though he has just told himself a joke) doesn't have a negative bone in his body. His team have gone for broke at the Emirates, Old Trafford and away from home two goals down with nine players, they are unbeaten at home and created a huge number of chances against Bolton, Birmingham, Fulham and Tottenham, all of which were very "open" encounters. Their offensive options will be increased today with the return of Peter Odemwingie, who has missed the last three games, but has a goal every two games in his EPL starts. It is hard to say how much the exertions of Monday will have taken out of them, they did an awful lot of running in dreadful conditions, but have had almost a full week to recover and City arrive here on the back of a trip to Poland on Thursday, so I think that just about balances out.


I have discussed City's defensive woes, especially through the centre, several times in recent weeks and little has changed, if anything, the situation has got worse with another three goals conceded in Poznan, which will have done little for their confidence at the back. Offensively they have plenty about them of course and might be able to call upon returning Carlos Tevez but he seems likely to start on the bench at best. In terms of their season this is a massive game for them, defeat will leave them stranded in 4th spot, probably six points behind all of the top three and potentially eleven points adrift of Chelsea. That might cost Roberto Mancini his job, especially amid speculation that he cannot control his players.


I feel that at least offensively we might see City at their best today, I can see Johnson and Silva getting just a little more time on the ball today and plenty of chances will be created at both ends of the pitch. At present City need two goals minimum to claim the points, both teams should /will score and "over" for me looks the best value and at 1.95 yesterday, I made that a double stake bet. I also see value in the visitors at 2.0 giving up a quarter ball, they will be as motivated for this as any game so far this campaign, as it could effectively end their EPL season and for Albion, arguably their match at West Ham in midweek is more important, or will be come May 22nd. City do have the small matter of the Manchester derby on wednesday, but they will surely want to go into that with a confidence boosting win and not staring down the barrel of a 5th straight loss.

"over" 2.5 goals 1.95 ........... 1.90 +

Manchester City -0.25 2.0


Good Luck.

Saturday, November 06, 2010

SATURDAY ....


FA CUP

Stockport County - Peterborough United

This is a bit from the school of the blindingly obvious, but I feel the last thing that County need right now is a visit from free scoring Posh. Hosts have not scored in four and conceded ten in their last two, normally professional teams bounce back with a very committed display after one thumping, especially when it came on home soil to a relegation favourite, so to repeat the scoreline the very next week, albeit having played 82 minutes with ten men, means that something is very wrong. You would have expected damage limitation at least, they were never at the races and allowed Morecambe 25 attempts on goal, most on target. County are a team used to losing, having tasted defeat 31 times last season and those memories are flooding back after recent results. Just three wins at EdgeleyPark in 38 league outings (ouch !) and confidence is going to need to be dragged up off the floor after last week.

Boro got their league campaign back on track with a 3-1 win at Walsall in midweek and will not want to let the momentum drop today, they are League 1 high scorers averaging well over two per game and it is not inconceivable that these two could be three divisions apart next season. Captain Grant McCann will return today, I expect even if they rotate a little, the visitors to play with freedom and without fear, exactly the opposite of County, who will be fearful taking to the pitch and looking for somewhere to hide if falling behind.

Peterborough United -0.75 1.97

Good Luck.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

TUESDAY ....


DIVISION 1
BRENTFORD - BOURNEMOUTH

Not a huge amount of love between these two teams, with a lot of Brentford fans living in the M3 "corridor" and therefore, easy travel between the two clubs and "local" bragging rights up for grabs.Both teams are coming off strange results at the weekend, Cherries apparently played really well at home to Colchester, their play from box to box was as good as anything they have produced all season, but no luck in front of goal and they lost 2-1. Opposite for the Bees, who as strange as this might sound, were played off the park by Exeter at times, yet won 4-2, had a "goal" disallowed and missed two penalties, football is a funny old game !

Expect the visitors, who will have large travelling support behind them to come out all guns blazing for three points, there are normally goals in all their games, with 14 of their last 15, including the last ten, all producing two or more, in the league 10 of 14 starts have gone "over". My beloved Bees have opened up recently, with the last five all producing three or more at an average of 3.8, they have conceded three at Griffin Park to both Rochdale and Oldham and Bournemouth have far more offensive threat than either of those two.

Brentford though are finally playing with a degree of confidence, coming within a whisker of beating EPL side Birmingham last midweek and on the back of four road goals at the weekend, they will certainly fancy their chances against the visiting backline, who have only one fully fit central defender in Jason Pearce, he is likely to be partnered with someone less than 100% or playing out of position, neither of which is ideal against confident, in form, strikers. Neither side looks capable of keeping a cleansheet at present and at big odds, "over" looks the best value in the game.

"over" 2.5 goals 2.13

BRIGHTON - EXETER

Hosts are running away with Division 1 at the moment, little has gone wrong for them and they have an eight point lead over the chasing pack. However, they are probably no better than a handful of other teams in a very competitive league and I expect the early pace setters to hit "the wall" very soon. Their better performances have come away from the Withdean, which is a temporary stadium, built for athletics with almost no atmosphere. Given Brighton's recent success, teams have come with one intention, that is to shut up shop and try and frustrate the home team and that has worked to a degree with Albion usually labouring to a success by the minimum margin. City had their pride hurt at the weekend, see above, but played much better than the result would suggest, they are well organised under Paul Tisdale and alongside Bournemouth (1-1) are probably the best team Brighton have yet faced on home soil.

Home boss Gus Poyet have spent every home post match interview berating their opponent's negative approach, it is clear that his team prefer it when teams bring the game to them. In 22 home league games since he took charge almost exactly a year ago, his team have covered the one goal line on just four occasions at home and two of those came at the end of last season facing sides already mentally on holiday. I expect a very motivated City team to take to the field tonight and they have the potential to register the surprise result of the evening and getting a one goal handicap start, I have to take them.

Exeter City + 1 ball 2.04

Good Luck.