Saturday, October 31, 2009

SATURDAY ...........


After eight games unbeaten, I think it is safe to say that Swansea are finally back on track, it was always going to be hard after Roberto Martinez left, he was Mr Swansea and took his top striker with him, but Paulo Sousa is from the same mould and is now making his mark in South Wales. The Swans are only five points off the playoff spots and f they they can start turning draws into wins a promotion push is not completely out of the question. They have been playing well, not just getting results and most of those games have come against good, ball playing, inform teams, including Doncaster, QPR (where Swansea had 60% possession and won the shots on goal count 15-7), Blackpool and WBA (57% 18-6). They have had a full week to prepare for this game, whereas Scunny were busy getting thumped by Manchester City in midweek, no real shame in that, but it was hardly a confidence booster.

There is more than a little bad feeling left over from an earlier Carling Cup game this season, when the Scunthorpe tactics left Sousa upset and reading between the lines, this is a match which he and his players really want to win....... revenge time. Off level ball I really like the visitors.

6.5 points Swansea level ball 1.98 asian line.



Wrexham are my best bet of the day, they are a pretty big club at this level, but continue to underachieve. They have resources that few other teams have available and lower midtable, even with a couple of games in hand, is simply not good enough. Recent results have signalled an upturn and two cleansheets in as many starts, offer a platform to build on and they really should win with some ease today.

Fleet are heading nowhere fast and would be bottom of the BSP were it not for Chester's massive points deduction. The club is in a mess both on and off the pitch and boss Liam Daish spoke frankly this week saying "The club's rock bottom, we've got nowhere to train and I'm trying to turn this back to where we were. I'm not here to lay blame away from myself. I feel I've done the best I can with what has been given to me."

The club have no training facility and no funds available, to say they are goal shy is a huge understatement and they have failed to score in 67% of all competitive starts this season and just once in the last 650 minutes of football. Last week was a new low and they were comprehensively beaten 3-0 in the FA Cup by a lower league Bromley side.

The Wrexham board have again dug deep and allowed the team to travel south yesterday and stay overnight in a hotel, a rare luxury at this level and I expect the players to respond with three points and a very comfortable win.

7 points Wrexham -1/2 ball 1.94 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..........

I have not sent subscribers very many selections recently, but what I have despatched has been tip top information and I remain in fantastic form, including a clean sweep last saturday, with winners at odds of 2.875, 1.92, 1.67 and 1.97 . The last of those was clearly named as my best bet of the weekend and won easily by three goals.

It might be too much to ask for a repeat, but I do have another four bets today and am planning to post two of them on here. Remember, you do not receive all the selections, but what you do get is free and still excellent information, with 5 of the last 6 previews winning and the sixth losing to a 93rd minute goal !

Back later.

Thursday, October 22, 2009


Just a quickie, Benfica won very easilythis evening, which was pleasing. I am just in the process of sending subscribers six selections for the next three days, but will not be posting any of them on the blog. So, rather than wasting your time checking in over the weekend, please note I will not post anything further on here until next week.

Good Luck with your bets this weekend !




I am still not 100% convinced how interested Benfica are in this tournament, as a title challenge and Champions League place is absolutely essential after a poor 08/09 and spending so much in the summer, but they are saying the right things and could hardly be in better shape at present. They have won their last six, scoring an incredible 24 goals and do not have a league game until Monday night, they are fully refreshed after a lengthy break and are confident of three points tonight. The hosts expect Everton to come at them and not sit back, which should really suit Benfica, who are happy to try and outscore their opponents.

Everton have a massive injury list and a couple more not eligible to play, with six group points already in the bag and two home games up next, they do need the points tonight and certainly do not need to collect any more injuries. They have a big game at Bolton at the weekend, big that is if they are hoping to contest a top six place this season and a cup tie at Tottenham on tuesday, I do not expect them to be at their best this evening and feel the home side could run away with this one.

6 points Benfica -3/4 ball 2.17 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009



These are words that are likely to come back and bite me on the butt, but I really see little downside with the Gunners giving up one ball and make them my strongest bet of midweek.

They come here in very good shape, with seven straight wins and averaging three goals per game in every outing this season. Robin Van Persie and Thomas Vermaelen could hardly be in better form and will be ultra keen to impress returning to their homeland. RVP has scored in his last four games and has a lot ofcontacts at AZ, I suspect he will be very motivated to make it five from five tonight.

AZ have clearly regressed from last season and have already lost five times and the goals have dried up with just four in six starts, with only one point in the group games and facing a trip to the EmiratesStadium next, they will be forced to push forward here at some stage and that will play into the Gunners stength. Away win.

7.5 points Arsenal -1 ball 1.88 asian line.

Good Luck.

Saturday, October 17, 2009


Histon and Bournemouth both won, so that's four from four this week.

I am currently working on tomorrow's email for subscribers and will be previewing three matches for them, including, what seems likely to be a "maximum bet", my first in some considerable time. Obviously, I cannot post that on here and the other two bets do not offer much room for manoeuvre, so feel it is just easier to say that there will not be another blog post until next week.

Good Luck with your bets tomorrow !

SATURDAY ...........



Hosts are in a desperate financial position, players have apparently not received all their salaries and have had to play a number of friendly games, two already this week alone, in an attempt to raise funds. The first team started the match with Blackburn on Tuesday and some were again involved in some part last night (Thursday) when a low level US team came a calling. This is far from ideal preparation and I expect to see a somewhat jaded performance today.

Vistors are top of the table, but have a small squad and under a transfer embargo, they have no choice but to manage with what they have got. Their injury hit squad received a boost with the return to training of striker Jeff Goulding and they are looking to bounce back from a home defeat to Chesterfield last week. A free week and a little rest will have done them the power of good and if they can continue creating chances at the same level, 20 against Chesterfield, they will be fine. After a lack lustre opening 45 minutes in that game, they steeped up a gear in the second half and were unlucky not to turn things around. Twenty changes against a solid team like the Spirites is good going and they will surely get plenty today, against an opponent who play a very open style at home.

6.5 points Bournemouth level ball 1.87 asian line.



I listened to the Histon-Cambridge game live on the radio recently and was impressed with the home side, who created an awful lot of changes and showed tremendous heart to snatch a late late equaliser, which was well deserved. They built on that with a very nice win at Tamworth, coming from behind to record a comfortable win and now face a very limited Forest Green side, who have only beaten fellow strugglers Chester and Grays in 15 starts. The visitors remain without a couple of defenders today and arrive hot on the heels of conceding five at home to Wimbledon last week. Hosts are boosted by the return from suspension of Adam Tann and have not yet given up on a playoff place, now that they have refound their form, to fulfill those dreams they need all three points today, especially with 3 of their next 4 games on the road, the next two at Rushden and Mansfield, two very resilient home teams. Home win.

6.5 points Histon -3/4 ball 1.92 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009


Fantastic start to the week with two really nice winners, IFK were backed off the boards yesterday and eased home, Brighton did their part tonight with a 2-0 victory.

I have already sent subscribers two strong bets for tomorrow (wednesday) but will not be posting either on the blog, so no need to check back before Thursday.

Good Luck.




Hosts are very disappointed by their start to a season which promised so much. They have been unlucky with injury, which gives them an excuse of sorts, that situation is clearing up, boss Russell Slade has virtually a full squad to choose from now and results look set to improve. Last three games have shown promise, with a 1-1 draw at highflying Bristol Rovers where they led, followed by a 1-0 home loss to MK Dons, who are a very good team, in that game Brighton had the greater possession and goalscoring chances, before a dismissal turned the match on it's head. At the weekend they raced into a two goal lead at Yeovil, before losing a key player and allowing two points to slip.

That player was striker Liam Dickinson who had just scored, he is someone we have discussed in the past and he is very useful at this level, he has recovered to play tonight and I really like his pairing with the ancient, but still prolific Nicky Forster up front. Man for man, Slade has a better than average squad at this level and there can be no more excuses for him, or his playing staff. I fancy them to get a win tonight against a Gills team that really toil on their travels. You can look at results this year and argue that most of their away games, where they only have just one point from five starts, have come against strong teams, which is true, but they also shipped four at woeful Tranmere and few other teams will accomplish that feat this season.

Looking at the last two and a bit seasons, they are 11-10-30 on the road, which is borderline poor, especially considering they were promoted last campaign, but even worse when we consider that seven of those wins came in a golden 12 game spell late last season, take those away and we are looking at just 4 wins in 39 starts. They have slipped back into their old ways and this is clearly a team unhappy away from the garden county of Kent. They did manage a win by the odd goal in five at the weekend, but that was their first in five starts and came against a managerless and weak Wycombe outfit. I expect the home side to come good this evening and start a march up the table of sorts, otherwise Mr Slade had better get his c.v prepared ready for action.

5.5 points Brighton -1/2 ball 2.25 general quote.

Good Luck.

Monday, October 12, 2009

MONDAY ..............



Long time readers will know that this is a "good " league for me and whilst I have not got overly involved this season, when we have bet, it has normally worked out well. I am confident that IFK will not lose tonight.

Following relegation after one season in Allsvenskan, few expected them to struggle back in Superettan, a division they won with ease in 2008, but struggle they have. IFK current sit in the drop zone with just three matches remaining, a point would take them out of the bottom two, infact, it could take them above three teams and even out of the relegation playoff group, which is a fantastic incentive. They will be without the suspended Roth, but otherwise have named a strong enough squad (see below) and to be honest, at this stage of the season, motivation over rides team news. The visitors are in reasonable shape, at least from a "not losing" point of view, with four draws in five starts and have a solid record here winning on two of their last three visits.

Hosts are ideal opponents, they have let their season fizzle out into mid tabe mediocrity in each of the last two seasons and are going for the hat-trick. They are safe from relegation and have not won in four starts, conceding six in the last two games alone. They have struggled on home soil in recent seasons , winning just 9 from 28 (32%) in the last two years. For a committed team desperate to survive, this is about as good a place to visit as any at this stage of the campaign.


Nuredin Bakiu och Anton Fagerström (mv).

Kristoffer Arvhage, Daniel Bamberg, Eirik Dybendal, Gunnar Thor Gunnarsson, Andreas Hadenius, Andreas Haglund, Armando Ibrakovic, Imad Khalili, Russell Mwafulirwa, Petru Racu, Viktor Rönneklev. Christopher Telo, Stefan Thordarson och Anders Whass.

IFK +1/4 ball 1.75 asian line.

Good Luck.

Friday, October 09, 2009



We are in a very exciting position with the Sergio Garcia bet, where after just one round the 9.0 chance is now trading at circa 2.50 ! Profit is/was there (depending upon when you are reading this) to be taken, if that is the way you wish to go.

Two bets today, which I will discuss briefly and the next email will be with you tomorrow morning.



Brentford are going through a very "funny" spell at the moment, the central defence is really struggling, where Bennett who led by example last season is having a nightmare. Think Jamie Carragher at Liverpool, a team leader who the others look up to, who can do little right. Also, they are starting games very slowly and only waking up after the break, usually when they are a goal or two down. I have reproduced last saturday's match report from a Bees fan (GPG forum) below, it pretty much sums things up and I have highlighted a few points.

Bees will get things right soon, but have a very long trip North to face a team who at least offensively, I like and have discussed recently. Hard to see my beloved team keeping a clean sheet, but remember, they are likely to come on strong after the break, so the "over" looks the right way to go in a fixture that traditionally produces goals.

5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.05 asian line.



Shamrock beat Bohemians last week and now have a two point lead at the top of the table, with just a handful of games remaining. However, they can hardly afford to ease off, as Bohs have a superior goal difference and an "easy" home game tonight, so Rovers have to go to Derry and look for all three points. They have not conceded in two visits here (one win) and will be buoyed by the home side's injury list with Clive Delaney--Back. Stephen Gray--Ankle. Peter Hutton--Groin. Ger O'Brien--Ankle. Sammy Morrow--Ankle. Tommy Stewart--Knee. Mark Farren--Illness, all missing out, at least six of those seven can be termed regulars.

Huge game for the away side and given the team news, we can only lean one way.

7 points Shamrock Rovers -1/4 ball 1.86 asian line.

Good Luck.

We've got to defend much, much better and stop gifting teams one, two and three goal headstarts. Three home games in a row now that we've fallen behind and we have got to put an end to it.

The first half was Bristol Rovers all over again. Opposition who did nothing special but broke forward into our box with pace, and took their chances. They make it look so simple but we don't pick them up. Neither Bennett or Phillips got close for the first and I think Bull could have reacted better. There were questions raised at the start of the season about our defence lacking pace, yet again players are running in behind our defence and this was typified by the second goal.

Swindon were another side who knew that if they were well organised and didn't make mistakes then we wouldn't really threaten, and they were right. Too often Charlie was asked to win headers against a centre back twice his size, perhaps Bull should not aim his kicks in his direction.

The wind was making a difference but again we were devoid of ideas, the balls through the middle were either over hit or misplaced whilst Amankwaah had the better of Wood all game.

Again second half we improved and Saunders upped his game and was able to run inside while Cort was able to hold it up or at least flick it on to Charlie. Turning point was Charlie's miss. Saunders curled a beauty that came off the post and fell to Charlie with an open goal but he hit it on the bounce and it flew over. It was head in hands stuff. Wood had a header at the back post that came off keeper and post and the improvement was there to see.

Then the goal, Cort showed good quality and touch and a finish into the bottom corner and we all thought game on. But three minutes later its poor again and we commited far too many forward. Phillips looked dead on his feet at the end and was beaten far too easily although a great finish. Not sure what happened for the third, did Charlie head it/ was it deflected? Seemed a little strange but again why do we have to wait til we've conceded to produce the goods. Last ten we huffed and puffed but it looked unlikely, one thing I noticed was fitness levels. I thought they looked tired and I wonder whether our fitness levels need to improve now that we've gone up a league. A lot of the players were blowing at the end, not a criticism just an observation and perhaps more fitness work is required.

It is the same old mistakes, poor defending and weaknesses to pace and movement. Bennett can hack it against League two strikers who are immobile and like a battle, but strikers with a bit of pace have really had the better of him. We've got to cut out the errors, we will get nowhere until we sort this out and I think Scott needs to brave and drop Bennett and put Wilson in the middle and Foster right back.

There were some positives though, Bean was again excellent and I thought him and Saunders drove the team forward in the second half. Cort had probabaly his best game, got a goal and linked with Mac well. Until Strevens is back this should be the partnership because Weston isn't a striker and I don't think Kabba is the answer.

Today showed that we aren't a bad side and we can play some decent stuff but until we cut out the errors and defend better we are going to be mid table. I'm sure the stats will show we had more possession and shots but Swindon took their chances and that is what counts and something has to change.




Here is a bet I am hoping will still be giving us a warm glow through the long dark winter months.

Sergio Garcia has had a stinker of a year, little has gone right for him on or off the golf course and he openly admits he was not in a good frame of mind after splitting with his girlfriend early in 2009.

We have seen recent signs that he might be about to hit top form and in four events since missing the cut in the USPGA , he has shot 15 from 16 rounds under par and recorded top 6 finishes in two tournaments. Since when he has had almost a three week break to recharge his batteries and will play this week refreshed and I believe, very hungry.

This is Sergio's time of year and last October he won the Castellon Masters in Spain and two weeks later the HSBC event in Shanghai. Actually the last named was officially a 2009 tournament ,so in five standard european events, in a year about as bad as it can get, he is has finished 1-8-7-11-13 ! He is clearly very comfortable this side of the Atlantic and especially in his homeland, where he is a multi winner.

The course at the Centro Nacional de Golf should suit Garcia and the spaniards tend to dominate events in their homeland filling 60% of the top ten places in recent tournaments. Forget King Carlos, Sergio rules Spanish golf and I favour him to put his subjects in their place this week.

5 points each way Sergio Garcia 9.0 Ladbrokes/Corals/Sportingbet outright 1/4 odds 12345 ...... 8.0 + is good IMO.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ...........

I am still alive ! I have not fallen off the edge of the world or anything, it is just that most of my limited output this week has been kept for subscribers.

I do have some information to pass on and will actually post today's email in full a little later, so please check back.

Good Luck.

Sunday, October 04, 2009

SUNDAY ...............

Fantastic day of sport ahead, with a very attractive programme of action in the EPL. Just a few basic notes about three of today's games.....



I get the feeling that we will see the real West Ham today, apparently training has gone very well this week and they are fully focused on getting all three points from a fixture they traditionally do well in.

They have had a clear six days to prepare for this and the break has enabled Matthew Upson and Valon Behrami to return to the squad. Upson has been sorely missed and will help eliminate some of the basic defensive errors which have cost them dear recently. The Hammers have played well in bursts recently and it is only a matter of time before it all comes together. The visitors played on Thursday and have a gruelling recent schedule, this should be very entertaining and I take a narrow home win.

5.5 points West Ham United -1/4 ball 1.94 asian line.



I am very keen on Rochdale here, they have been one of the very best sides in Division 2 over the past two seasons and deserve promotion this time round. After a shaky start, they are unbeaten in six, scoring at least two goals in each , including winning their last four. I rate them no worse than third in the league and expect Dale to battle out the promotion places with Rotherham and County, confidence is sky high at the club and all believe that this is their year. They are battling for every point and have no plans to enter the playoff lottery a third time. A win today will take them second and given their proficiency upfront, they will fancy a trip to Burton, who's home starts have been very open affairs with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

7 points Rochdale -1/4 ball 1.97 asian line.



I have received very good reports about Bremen and they have been dominating recent starts after a slow start to this season. The visitors are unbeaten in eleven games in all competitions and have really tightened up defensively, with four clean sheets in five. It is not just that they are playing well, but allowing the opposition so little of the ball, with Bremen enjoying over 60% possession in their last five Bundesliga games, which included an away start at leader Leverkusen. A win today will take them in fourth spot in the table and that looks on the cards. Hosts are struggling to come to terms with the rigors of Champions League football and their players are struggling with the schedule, couple of key players are out today, including Alexander Hleb and at present, they look a shadow of the side which finished last season so strongly. Having discussed how tight Bremen are defensively, this is a fixture that normally produces goals, four or more in the last six, at an average of 5.50 per start. Therefore, i am going to cover with a small bet on this following suit and with a little luck, Bremen will edge a five goal thriller.......... you have to hope !

6.5 points Werder Bremen level ball 1.98 asian line.

2 points "over" 4.5 goals 4.70 exchanges.

Good Luck.

Thursday, October 01, 2009

EUROPA LEAGUE .............


Fulham rested pretty much an entire starting eleven for the first group game in Sofia and were still comfortable in earning a 1-1 draw. Boss Roy Hodgson has made it clear that was a one off and that he will name his strongest available team, with only minimal changes, for the remaining five games. With Roma home and away up next, if the Cottagers want to progress, they surely have to look for all three points this evening. The visit of the Italian giants to the south west London club will be a massive game in Fulham's history and very high profile, there will be far less media interest/pressure tonight and easier points to win.

Hodgson has vast knowledge of european football and probably knows as much as anybody in England about Swiss football having spent 6-7 years there coaching at domestic and national level and retaining his contacts. He rates Basle at a similar level to CSKA and whilst he doesn't underestimate them, he feels they will offer few surprises. The visitors opened with an eyecatching win over Roma, but I remain unconvinced about The Wolves motivation for this tournament and Basle home and away are two very different animals. Domestically they have conceded 39 goals in 24 road starts, that's an average of 1.625 per game and a big number is a league where usually, they are top three at worst and facing weaker opposition.

Fulham lost at home to Arsenal at the weekend, but earned almost universal plaudits for their performance, at times they out pased and out played the Gunners and few teams do that. Hodgson appears good to his word and has named the following squad : Schwarzer, Zuberuhler ,Pantsil, Baird, Kelly, Smalling, Hughes,Riise, Greening, Dempsey, Murphy, Gera,Nevland, Zamora, Kamara, and Johnson.

He might rotatae the front men and we could see Kamara and Nevland upfront, but these two are hungry and IMO the squad looks plenty strong enough with Gera and Dempsey also looking to get forward at every opportunity, to put two or more past Basle and I expect this bet to win with relative ease.

Fulham -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line......... 1.80 + is good IMO.

Good Luck.