Tuesday, October 31, 2006


Just a few lines about two matches.

Bristol Rovers have been very poor in recent outings and have a number of injuries, they will once again have to field very much a makeshift defence, for the trip to Wycombe.

My first concern looking at this tie would be that the home team should have other targets for the season, but they seem to be approaching the match in the correct manner and should have too many options for the goal shy visitors, only botton side Macclesfield have scored fewer on the road. Going to suggest a token bet.

No bet on and no prizes for guessing the next match. Brentford put in a totally dismal display at the weekend, but do not take my word for it, the following was written on one of the fans site, by a loyal and dedicated supporter of the mighty Bees ........

As for the performance, the first half was abysmal. We were not in the game almost from the off, gave away an incredibly cheap goal early doors and didn't look for one minute like coming away with anything other than a loss from the moment the ball hit the back of the net.

We were lethargic at best, and it is a mark of how poor we are that imho, any hope of getting anything out of the game was gone when Callum Willock had to be replaced early on, with his replacement, Clyde putting in one of the worst performances by any Brentford player I have ever seen.

The defence was once again totally overworked - unaided by a non-existent midfield and resorted to hopeful lumps upfield in the absence of any midfield player offering themselves for the ball. In goal, Clarke made a couple of fine saves but looked very shakey when dealing with crosses and struggled positionally culminating in Oldham's first which appeared to be down to him from what I could see.

Having been booed off at half-time the team reappeared 3-4 minutes early for the second half, but in the absence of any management/coaching staff issueing instructions etc. simply stood around getting cold until Oldham reappeared. I simply do not believe that there is any benefit to sending your team out early, simply to stand around waiting for the other team to join you.

Overall, I honestly do not believe that I can remember a more spineless, more inept performance from a Brentford team in over 20 years of supporting the bees. Aside from the back four. we scarcely won a tackle or header the entire game - again. No matter what the opposing views are on our previous incumbent, I do not believe too many would disagree that, no matter how badly we played, you always came away after the game knowing that the team had given all they had. Not for the first time yesterday, I sat there and thought that several players had simply thrown in the towel and given up.

The reaction of the fans at the end said it all. If we are a poor team, that is one thing, but we are also totally spineless which fans simply will not tolerate. Having not missed a match in 5 years, I can honestly say that that performance was the worst I have seen in all that time - maybe ever.

Tough times at Griffin Park, not sure how Forest will approach the game tonight, guess they will rest as many as they can get away with, probably still good enough to win, the choice is up to you.

2.5 points Wycombe -1/2 ball asian line 1.81

Good Luck.


Chelsea, currently on 9 points, have all but qualified for the next stage and therefore the match tonight has far more importance for Barcelona.

Not that the London side will "roll over", there is little love lost between the two sides and Jose has once again angered the home side with his mind games.

However, his team is weakened and he could be without both Shevchenko and, more importantly on current form, Drogba.

Barcelona are desperate for the win, their very demanding fans are not pleased with recent performances in defeat, at Chelsea and Real Madrid. I think they will do enough to win, but it might take time, these two have gone in level at the break in their last 3 meetings and could do so again.

Bordeaux looked very poor and very physical in the home tie with Liverpool, they have struggled all season on the road, with very few goals and are yet to score in this group stage. It is very hard to see them getting much from tonight and Liverpool should eventually run out comfortable winners. The visitors will look to keep it tight early, they know no other way, but will be forced forward later in the game.

Anyone wanted a small interest in these two ties, could do worse than a wager on the double result market, with both selections to win, following a half time draw. That double pays circa 22.5 + with the bookies and has a real chance of producing a bumper payout. I am going to chance a little.

4 points Barcelona -1/4 ball asian line 1.76
5 points Liverpool -1/2 ball 1.47 betfair

1 point ht draw/ft barcelona 5.70 betfair
1 point ht draw/ft liverpool 5.0 betfair
1/2 point double 22.5 general (5.00/4.50)

Back later, hoping to get some concrete team news, as opposed to rumours, regarding the Johnstone's Paint Trophy ties tonight.

Good Luck.

Fully rested .........

Free scoring Burnley should arrive at Kenilworth Road, fully rested and in much better shape than their opponents Luton, who have faced a draining couple of days.

The visitors played on Friday night, which ensured a full 40 hours extra rest over Luton, who had to wait until Sunday to receive their 5-0 drubbing from Ipswich. They suffered the further stress of Sol Davis suffering a stroke on board the team bus and all in all, it was a very traumatic day for Mike Newell's side.

Burnley's weekend could hardly have gone better, they ended Preston's 11 match unbeaten run with a fine 3-2 win and are within touching distance of the top of the table. They took the points here last season, also in a 3-2 victory and goals could well be on the cards again tonight.

Something will have to give, the hosts being unbeaten at home, as are the visitors on their travels, well I suppose a draw will keep both runs going and that is why my selection is Burnley with a start on the asian line. They look to hold all the advantages here.

5 points Burnley +1/4 ball asian line 1.77.

Back shortly.

Good Luck.


I will have my first football post online at 15.30 cet.

Have heard some interesting news on the tennis today, not going to put these up as selections, time is too short, but feel it is worthwhile passing on.

Tomas Johansson has admitted to feeling a little tired and Spadea at circa 2.80 looks big.

Very suspicious betting in favour of Santoro to beat Benneteau, putting 2+ 2 together and maybe getting 5, "Benny"might not be 100%.

Back later.

Monday, October 30, 2006

STATS ......

In looking into today's events, I have "collected" a number of statistics which may be of interest to some of you.

SCOTLAND ... Aberdeen-Hibernian 12 meetings without a draw, only 2 of last 26 finished all square, remenber these two meet at least 3 times per season, so most are recent games.

ITALY ... Hellas Verona-Genoa Home side are the division's low scorers, only 2 in 8, these fixtures are averaging under a goal per game. League leaders Genoa's 8 games have produced 27 goals, strangely enough they have conceded twice as many as their 17th placed hosts.

PORTUGAL .... Pacos de Ferreira-Boavista The visitors have dominated this match up in recent years , losing only one of ten meetings.

TURKEY .... Trabsonspor-Rizenspor Hosts have won this Black Sea derby 5 straight years and the last 8 home and away.

TENNIS... Seppi-Mathieu Seppi has won just 1 from 9 matches played since mid July. Mathieu won only previous meeting in Indian Wells, earlier this year, after losing the first set, he took the next two comfortably, creating double the number of break points of his opponent.

I like the Trabsonspor-Matthieu double especially, it is available around the 2.12 mark.

Back tomorrow.

Good Luck.


I think we have a very good value bet on the tennis today.

The Beast of Belarus, Max Miryni, brings his massive serve to the city of love and can leave one of my favourites, Robbie Genepri, to play tourist for the rest of the week.

The American is in good form, but so is Mirnyi, who has fallen only to the eventual tournament winners in his last two events. The surface here is exceedingly fast, I think, the 3rd quickest on tour and the "bombs" will be past Ginepri, before he has moved.

Max reached the semis here in 2004, beating Arazi, Gonzalez, Roddick and Soderling, the first three without the loss of a set, before losing to eventual runner up Radek Stepanek. In the 12 sets he played, Mirnyi gave up just 13 break points, an incredible number. Only one (!) in the five sets with Roddick and Stepanek.

I make "the Beast" favourite to live up to his nickname and excellent value at the odds on offer.

4 points Mirnyi to beat Ginepri 2.22 betfair, you may even get a little higher nearer the start.

Good Luck.


I wanted to write a little about yesterday, firstly, we made a little profit which was fine on my first day back.

Molde lost 8-0 which seems and indeed is, terrible. However, that is why I suggested a small win bet, instead of thaking the asian line. It was a must win game for the visitors and the first goal was always going to be crucial, after conceding, they had no option but to push forward.

After writing the brief note about the NFL game, I realised it would have been beneficial to have offered more explanation about the effects of extreme weather conditions in the NFL. So, better late than never, high winds/snow/heavy rain etc usually mean that teams will keep the ball on the ground (not throw/pass), for as long as possible.

This takes more time "off the clock" and scoring should be and usually is , significantly lower. For example, yesterday the Eagles, who have averaged over 29 points per game, were restricted to just 6 and only half of their normal 400+ yards of offence. It always pays to check the local weather forecast.

I will be back later with some more news for today's action.

Good Luck.


AIK Stockholm have the Allsvenskan title within their grasp.

Currently trailing Elfsborg by two points, victory tonight will take them top and leave destiny within their own hands, with just one round of matches left to play.

They travel west to face GAIS who are now safe from any relegation worries, baring a 16 goal turnaround, a narrow AIK win will leave everyone happy, including me.

Odds are falling fast, Stan James have just cut them to 1.67, you may find 1.80 in a place, but I will recommend a bet at Betfair's current 1.78/ asian line 1.76.

Feel sure that these will continue to fall, I have a contact with very close connections to the club and can tell you that they are very confident. That, together with the obvious motivation factor makes them a very strong selection for me.

5 points AIK -1/2 ball 1.76 +.

Back a little later.

Good Luck.

Sunday, October 29, 2006


I was considering playing on the Eagles-Jacksonville match up, but have decided to pass, mainly because of weather concerns.

Should any of you be looking to get involved, please note that high winds are forecast for Philly, up to 50km ph.

So that will be it for today, back tomorrow.

Good Luck.


I will make this short, as they kick off in little over an hour.

Going to go for history repeating itself and Cagliari to kick start their season with a win over Sampdoria.

Last season, the two met with the home side on a run of draws, just like this year and victory over today's opponents, set them off on a long winning run.

The Cagliari coach has read the riot act to his players, after they threw away a two goal lead at Atlanta in midweek. With 3 of their next 4 matches away from home and clubs below them in Serie A having their "scandal" points deductions reduced, they see this as a must win game and it will be approached as such.

On the level ball option it looks a very strong wager.

4 points Cagliari level ball asian line 1.81.

Back later.

Good Luck.


Not sure how many of you are reading today, feels a little like I am talking to myself at the moment, need to get back into a routine.

However, I am back as promised and eager to find a few winners.

Going to start in Norway, where there are just two rounds to go in Tippeligaen and some very interesting match ups today.

Tromso finish with a very difficult looking trip to Valerenga next week and have a golden opportunity to collect 3 much needed points at home to Start. Who look to be winding down their season and have very little to play for.

After a fine run of six wins, the visitors Eliteserien future was secured and they can be excused for taking their foot off the gas. They have conceded two goals in each of their last 4 starts. collecting just one point. It will be tough to improve upon that, against a well motivated opponent.

Molde travel to Stabaek currently in bottom place, yet knowing that victory could give them a real chance of survival, especially with a winnable home fixture next weekend. The home side have gone off the rails defensively in recent weeks, conceding 20 in their last 10 and that is relegation level.

Finally, Ham Kam are worth a small interest for the trip to Brann, for whom the title is now firmly out of reach. They only have theirselves to blame, a total of 12 points from a possible 30, is clearly not Championship level. They may rest a few players today and even change their normal formation. Also heard a rumour that some former Ham Kam players in the Brann side, may not be fully motivated , but that is all they are, rumours.

HK still need to secure their safety, are unbeaten in 4 and have really tightened up defensively, conceding only 2 goals in that period.

So, we have 3 motivated sides fighting for their lives facing opponents, who, for various reasons MAY not be trying quite so hard. Sounds good.

4 points Tromso -1/2 ball asian line 1.98
2 points Molde 3.50 general ..... ladbrokes/interwetten/centrebet
3 points Ham Kam +1/2 ball asian line 2.05.

Back later.

Good Luck.

Friday, October 20, 2006


Sorry guys, I have decided to take a break for 7 days.

Under normal circumstances I would continue to post, but do not feel able to dedicate sufficient time and that would not be fair to either of us.

I shall return refreshed and ready for action.

Please note that there are two posts below, covering this weekend's events.

My next post will be online, Sunday October 29th, before 10.00 cet. Make sure you check back.

Good luck and good punting.


Tony Mowbray has made a glorious start to his career as the Baggies boss.

The run can continue in his first Black Country derby on Sunday, when Wolverhampton Wanderers visit the Hawthorns. He will be used to the special atmosphere and pressure derby games bring, from his time in the Scottish capital.

Albion have more quality than their opponents and should have Kevin Phillips, who has missed some training this week, available for selection, in the Championship match of the weekend. The midweek win at Palace was the first time WBA have recorded back to back wins in over 2 years and they are desperate for the hat trick.

They have 5 top strikers , Nathan Ellington, John Hartson, Zoltan Gera, Diomansy Kamara and Phillips at their disposal, talent which ensures this team, will always score goals.

Wolves have problems in this department and their lofty league position is due, in part , to having played 7 of their 12 fixtures at home. They have not won here in a decade and look unlikely to improve upon that record this weekend.

Next, I like the "over" in the match of the day, when Real Madrid host Barcelona.

The goal line is set at 2.25 and when you consider that one one of the last 20 h2h meetings have produced less than 2 goals, that is clearly a value bet, with so many attacking options available to both sides and each being happier going forward.

4 points WBA -1/4 ball asian line 1.70
5 points over 2.25 goals Real Madrid-Barcelona asian line 1.87.

Good Luck.


I am going to side with 3 "overs" today.

Will stick with the Bradford-Scunthorpe tie, which served us so well in midweek, when they met in the Mickey Mouse Cup (sorry). A the risk of repeating myself, these two create more chances than any other teams in Division1 and at odds against, the "over" looks real value. Key defenders missing from both teams.

In Division 2, Darlington-Barnet are two consistently, inconsistent teams, both create and concede plenty of chances/goals. Darlo's home and Barnet's away games have averaged exactly 3 goals. The visitors have conceded more , 28, than any team bar bottom club Macclesfied.

Barnet have gone 11 matches without a clean sheet and are "over" in 7 from 9. They are struggling with injuries in their defence and it is hard not to see plenty of goalmouth action here.

Finally, in the Bundesliga, where all matches are averaging 2.76 goals. We can side with history in the Hertha-Munchengladbach fixture, which has been "over" in the last 8 meetings.

Hertha's home and BMG's away games are both averaging 3.3 goals per game, so, no reason not to think the trend will continue.

3 points over 2.5 goals Bradford-Scunthorpe 2.085 asian line.
3 points over 2.5 goals Darlington-Barnet 1.96 asian line
4 points over 2.25 goals Hertha Berlin-BMG 1.71 asian line.

Good Luck


I have written a little in recent weeks about strong home side Niort, who have not lost at the Rene-Gaillard Stadium for 18 months.

Tonight they host defensively minded Montpellier, who will come for the point and have scored only 16 goals in their last 25 "road "games.

We can play Niort on the level ball handicap and that looks too good to pass.

On numerous occasions I have referred to the moves made in France, to make the domestic football more entertaining, especially the televised matches. Tonight, Le Havre-Reims is the offering available to French viewers.

The visitors will have one eye on their midweek cup match with Monaco, which is being eagerly anticipated.They are without several players tonight and it can be expected that a few more will have one eye on the cup tie. Le havre's total of 15 goals scored and 23 in total, in all home games is easily the division's highest. The "over" 2 goals looks a very nice option.

Victory for Grenoble could take them into the promotion places and opponents, Gueugnon, look to have "lower mid table" written all over them, as in every other season in living memory. You
can almost bank on them finishing 9th-16th and this year looks no different.

Grenoble have dropped only 2 points at the Lesdiguieres Stadium this season and hold a 4-2-0 record in h2h meetings.

Gueugnon's limitations were shown in a 6-1 hammering at Le Havre 2 rounds ago and whilst something similar is unlikely tonight, the home team should have enough about them to collect the points.

4 points Niort level ball asian line 1.72
4 points Le havre-Reims over 2 goals asian line 1.76
3 points Grenoble -3/4 ball asian line 1.83

Good Luck.


I will return a little later with some news for Ligue 2 in France, but for now ........

Regional derby in Germany when Dortmund host Bochum, in a series they have dominated. Having won the last 5 meetings and 8 of the last 9, six of those by 2 or more goals. Victory will take them to the top of the Bundesliga, at least until tomorrow afternoon, it is a real incentive for the sleeping giant.

Alexander Frei and Nelson Valdez have both recovered from injury and are available for selection and even goalkeeper Roman Weidenfeller, who has not trained all week, is hoping to make a surprise start.

Bochum will be keen to salvage some pride after the humilitating 6-0 home loss to Bremen, but have some injury concerns and this looks like the wrong fixture at the wrong time. Dortmund to lead the Bundesliga for the first time in ages and give their fanatical supporters something to dream about, at least for 24 hours.

In England, old "favourites" Hartlepool travel to goal shy Chester, who are desperately trying to sign a striker. City are just not creating enough chances, they are bottom of the attempts on goal table, with a measly 118 after 14 starts. Hartlepool are top with 189, which is over 5 per game more.

Danny Wilson's side have recovered after a poor start to the season and are definitely one of the best teams in Division 2, they should comfortably make the playoffs at least and should be on a long run without a loss. The defeat at Lincoln really came against the run of play. With the massive North East derby up next week against Darlington, they will want to take something from tonight and with a little luck in front of goal they will.

4 points Dortmund -3/4 ball asian line 1.70
4 points Hartlepool +1/4 ball asian line 1.76

Good Luck.


I have been following the Madrid Masters very closely this week and would like to pass on my views for today's action.

Tomas Berdych is a crazy price to beat Rafael Nadal, he can be backed around the 3.40 mark on Betfair and that is simply wrong. He leads the h2h 2-1, all matches have gone the distance, the Czech player winning the two hard court encounters, Rafa's victory coming on his beloved clay.

They know each others game well, having been practice partners for sometime. Berdych is well suited by the conditions in Madrid, at over 600m above sea level the ball is really flying through the air and he was averaging over 10 aces per set, in his win over Andy Roddick.

What I really like is in their last meeting, he restricted Nadal to just 3 break points in a long match. Going to play a little on the straight win and a larger bet on the LAY of Nadal to win 2-0 in sets.

David Nalbandian has disappointed many supporters recently with some very lack lustre displays and that is being kind, on occasion he has looked like he just doesn't care. He has shown a lot more fight this week, in coming back from losing situations against Benneteau and Henman, but played poorly to get in those situations in the first place.

Today he meets Marat Safin, who is completely bonkers, but a world class player, who will return to the top ten next year. Marat holds a 6-1 h2h record, his only loss coming on the clay of Roland Garros. They met in the five set final here a couple of years ago and the Argentine never got a look in, the Russian, who grew up in Spain, winning in 3 very easy sets. Serving 15 aces , earning 13 break points and dominating all stats.

Think we could chance a little on him to win in straight sets today, if the serve is working well, he should win comfortably.

2 points Safin to beat Nalbandian 2-0 sets 2.52 betfair
1 points Berdych to beat Nadal 3.40 betfair
lay 3 points Nadal to win 2-0 sets circa 2.16 betfair

Good Luck.

Thursday, October 19, 2006


Despite being UEFA Cup holders, I do not think Seville will see tonight's match as a must win game. The competition is now in the group stage, so plenty of time to recover from one upset and they have already stated that the league and especially, Champions League qualification, is their priority for this season.

They travel without Navas, Adriano and Puerta, as well as two, longer term injured players. My opinion is that they would be very happy not to make the trip and to accept one point.

Opponents, Slovan Liberec, look a very competent side. They have just lost their first domestic match of the season, after 10 starts, no doubt they had one eye on tonight's game. Slovan came within 11 minutes of qualifying for the group stage of the Champions League, losing out to Spartak Moscow.

They have performed well in Europe losing only 1 in 4, of over 40 starts. That record is even better against Spanish sides who they have met in 3 ties, progressing on each occasion, infact, they won 5 of the 6 matches.

Liberec will be up for this match and maybe we cannot say the same about the visitors. There is no doubt that Seville have the greater class, but they seem a very short price to me for a match they do not HAVE to win. Think the odds for the home win are huge at 4.50 on the exchanges, but feel a lay of the Spanish side or the +1/2 ball option (same thing), is the way to go.

4 points +1/2 ball Liberec 1.93 betfair.... or a lay of Seville circa 2.06/2.08.

Good Luck.


Helsingborgs IF-Osters.

Osters are bottom of Allsvenskan, but only two points from the, relative safety, of the relegation playoff place. With just 4 rounds to go they face two vital, yet winable, fixtures in the next six days, firstly a trip to fellow strugglers GAIS, at the weekend, followed by a home game with motiveless Malmo next midweek.

These fixtures can be their only concern and to that end, they are resting most of the first team tonight, it looks likely that a maximum of 4 regulars will start.

Helsingborgs have this as their major priority and will start with their strongest available eleven. Very strong at home, only Hacken have won at the Olympia Stadium in the league. This looks real banker material and despite the short quotes, I have to get involved.

6 points Helsingborgs -1/2 ball 1.36 paddy power/ 1.35 expekt/interwetten 1.37 betfair.

Back later.

Good Luck.


Just a quick post, Palermo are going to make a lot of changes for tonight's trip to Eintracht Frankfurt.

The only certain starters, are the three players that are suspended for this coming weekend's Serie A fixture.Palermo fancy their chances of qualifying for the Champions League this season and will give every priority to the league.

It is possible to qualify for the next stage of the UEFA Cup by just winning your home ties anyway, so there is a lot of value in taking the Germans, who remain unbeaten in the Bundesliga.

Back later.

5 points Eintracht Frankfurt -1/4 ball asian line 2.15

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Two short priced teams ........

.... Werder Bremen and Inter Milan, will be popular with punters around the world tonight.

Both have to win, Bremen to keep in touch with Barcelona and Chelsea in Group A and Inter to stop the fans burning the stadium down. Only joking ......... sort of joking.

Following losses to Bayern and Sporting Lisbon, only 3 points will appease the Inter faithful and keep their European hopes alive.

These do look like two winners, but at the combined odds of 1.66 ( if you are lucky), we can afford to pass.

Elsewhere, Valencia look to have plenty of goals in them and are prepared to "slug it out", not like the Valencia of old. They are averaging almost 3 per game in the league and both they and tonight's opponents Shakhtar Donetsk are over 4 per game in the CL group stages.

Donetsk are better than their results might indicate, they were unlucky to lose 4-0 to Roma, infact, they had the best of it for significant periods. However, once they concede their heads can drop and they are forced to look for the win in any case. There should be plenty of chances here and obviously, I like the "over".

4 points over 2.5 goals Valencia-Donetsk 1.83 general quote.

Good Luck.


These two know each other very well and there is not a lot of love lost between them.

They have met in each of the last two seasons in the Champions League, the four games have been very hard fought and produced 14 goals.

Chelsea's goalkeeping problems have been well documented and with Makelele and ballack joing Lampard and Essien in a very narrow looking midfield, Jose Mourinho will be looking to protect his 3rd choice keeper.

However, with so much attacking talent on show, Ronaldinho is finally showing signs of returning to his best and Drogba is in the form of his life, it is hard not to see a couple of goals at the very least.

If pushed for a straight selection, I would go for the score draw, but feel more confident about the "over" 2 goals option. the previous encounters all contained 2 or more and it would surprise me if we did not see something similar tonight.

4 points over 2 goals Chelsea-Barcelona 1.85 asian line.

I will be back with my thoughts and one more bet on the remaining Champions League fixtures at 17.30 cet.

Good Luck.

BORDEAUX .......

.... coach Ricardo Gomes is shouldering the blame for his side's poor start to the season.

They have already lost 4 times in Ligue 1, which is only one less than they suffered in the whole of last season. Without a goal and with just one point from their opening two group games they will be forced to go looking for the win at some stage tonight and Liverpool, with Pennant and Bellamy, have the pace to exploit them.

Both teams are weakened by injuries, but I am happier with the options available to Rafael Benitez, who seems far more confortable in Europe. He has already tasted victory at the Stade Chaban-Delmas, his Valencia side winning in the UEFA Cup quarter final of 2003-04.

Bordeaux had little idea how to break down the resolute PSV defence in their last CL game and it is hard to see how they will find things any easier tonight. They have a dismal recent record in Europe and it is not about to get any better.

Probable teams....

Bordeaux: Ulrich Ramé; Franck Jurietti, Henrique, David Jemmali, Florian Marange; Geraldo Mauricio Wendel, Fernando Menegazzo, Johan Micoud, Rio Antonio Mavuba; Lilian Laslandes, Jean-Claude Darcheville.

Liverpool: Pepe Reina; Steve Finnan, Sami Hyypiä, Jamie Carragher, John Arne Riise; Luis García, Boudewijn Zenden, Xabi Alonso, Jermaine Pennant; Peter Crouch, Craig Bellamy.

4 points Liverpool level ball asian line 1.83.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006


Just a few words about two bets I like in the Championship.

West Bromwich Albion have made a very good appointment in new coach, Tony Mowbray, he will be a big success in England. WBA are rattling in the goals at present, 14 in their last 4 starts and can continue the run at Crystal Palace, who are struggling a little .

Albion are are averaging 50 % more attempts at goal than Palace in every game and that is a huge advantage. Infact, the home side have had the fewest attempts in the division, amazing given their current standing. Think the visitors should be favourites and like them at odds against on the level ball.

Think we will see goals in the big match of the day, when Cardiff host Southampton. Both create a host of chances and have both gone "over" in their last four starts. The Saints have amassed 145 attempts and hit the woodwork 8 times, things have not really gone their way yet and they seem sure to be involved at the business end of the season, there is a lot of quality in the team.

3 points WBA level ball asian line 2.05
4 points over 2.25 goals asian line 1.70.

Good Luck.


As ever, the Champions League matches are difficult to predict and we can expect some very close games tonight.

Manchester United seem terribly short for the visit of FC Copenhagen and I would not touch that price with a bargepole.

Arsenal face a difficult trip to Moscow to face CSKA, who are yet to concede in the tournament. They are difficult to break down and well coached by former Russian national boss, Valeri Gazzaev. The Gunners may have to settle for a point and with 6 already in the bag, that would not be the end of the world.

The "under" looks a very solid bet, but is priced accordingly, the best value bet to my eyes is the half time draw, quoted at odds against on the exchanges and a very acceptable 2.10 with Ladbrokes. That is my selection, but the "under"is a viable alternative. Temperature at kick off should be just below zero, winter wake up call for the Arsenal boys.

Celtic and Benfica meet in Glasgow and both have major injury concerns. Replacement wise, the visitors have far better options. Scottish domestic football seems to have regressed this season and whilst Celtic are obviously the best of a poor bunch, that is unlikely to be good enough.

Benfica cannot afford to lose tonight if they are to progress in the tournament and I feel defeat is unlikely. Celtic are bound to "have a go" and that will suit the Portugese side's counter attacking style. In Simao they have a player, deadly from free kicks, who can terrorise defences with his pace, he is sure to give the Celtic full backs a torrid time. Look for him in the first goalscorer market. However, I feel a LAY of Celtic is the right way to go.

Dynamo Kiev have conceded 12 goals in their last 3 Champions League games and they, along with Shakhtar Donetsk, their domestic rivals, have beeen huge disappointments in Europe this season. Tonight they host Lyon who have won 9 in a row and seem to score, almost at will.

I do expect an improved showing from the home side, a draw will be of little help to them, so they will be forced forward, should be goals and I see a little value in the "over".

LAY 3 points Celtic 2.42 Betfair ( max loss 4.26 points)
2.5 points half time draw CSKA-Arsenal ladbrokes
3 points over 2.25 goals Dynamo Kiev-Lyon 1.71 asian line.

Back later.

Good Luck.


Going to cover three matches in this one post, so will not go into the greatest of detail, but all are confident selections.

First up, I like Hartlepool at home to Rotherham. The visitors have done very well, starting the season on -10 points, they are already on +10. However, they are still 5 adrift of the pack and despite their financial problems, must give the league number one priority.

Reading between the lines, I am 100% sure that this is the case and that they would have rested most of the first team, if that had been an option. There is a new rule stating that sides must field at least six regulars.

Pool continue to create a MASSIVE number of chances, they boast a division high 189 attempts at goal, have hit the woodwork 8 times and missed a handful of penalties.

They are averaging a whopping 5 attempts more per game than Rotherham, half of which are on target. I really like them on the level ball asian line.

Next up, I have to take Northampton at home to Brentford, well, cannot back it myself, but the home side are my selection. The two met earlier in the season in the league and The Bees "stole"
the points, in a travesty of justice.

Town are still looking for their first home win, but are unbeaten on the road, this cannot continue indefinitely and they will not get many better opportunities to break their duck.

Brentford have one win inside 90 minutes in 14 starts and were very fortunate in that sole victory, the natives are getting very restless and there are already calls for Rosenior's head. Do not see what he has done so very wrong myself, small inexperienced squad, massive injury problems and no money. Wonder how Jose, Arsene or Sir Alex, would handle that ?

The Cobblers (yes, I know) are creating over 60% more attempts on target than the visitors, who face a "must win" home game with Gillingham at the weekend. Looks like a home win to me, Brentford will give a few youngsters some experience tonight, three key regulars, short of match practice, will start, with instructions not to get injured.

My final selection in this competition, is the over"in the Bradford-Scunthorpe fixture. These two will fancy their chances in the league this season , both are nicely placed in the top 5 and in good form. Neither will be too concerned with the result tonight and each creates chances for fun.

Bradford's total of 184 attempts at goal, is the highest in Division 1 and the visitors are just behind in second place with 172. Hard not to see plenty of goalmouth action and a few goals.

4 points Bradford-Scuntorpe over 2.5 goals asian line 2.075
4 points Northampton -1/4 ball asian line 1.91
4 points Hartlepool level ball asian line 1.73

Back later with the Champions League.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY PLANS ..............

I am really excited by the football today, think we can win some money.

Will be back at 13.00 with the Johnstone's Trophy, this was formerly the LDV and any number of other names. Just need to confirm a few things, but have some very strong ideas here.

I will then cover the Champions League and finally the Championship games, very busy day.

Just a few words about the tennis. Tim Henman looked very good yesterday, his serve was fantastic, the best I have seen it in several years and he hit a couple of truly unreal volley's. His confidence seems very high too, would not oppose him at present, favour him over Ferrer today.

Andy Roddick should comfortably beat Sebastian Grosjean, but you will not get fat on the odds available. he leads the h2h 7-1, winning the last 7, 5 of the last 6 have been in straight sets, infact he has only dropped sets on grass, Grosjean's best surface.

No suggested bets on the tennis, too much on the football today.

Back later.

Monday, October 16, 2006

That will be all for today ...........

...... I was planning to post a pick for the tennis tonight, but have opted to pass. Will be back in the morning, plenty of choice tomorrow.

Good Luck.


..... is the treat (!) that SKY have arranged for us this evening.

I expect the visitors to improve a little over the next few matches. They have had a very difficult run of fixtures, in their 7 starts todate they have played 5 of the top 6, plus Arsenal. They now start a sequence against sides at the opposite end of the table and HAVE to start collecting points.

In Darren Bent they have an ever dangerous striker and having spoken to a Charlton supporter recently, he told me that Dowie was close to getting things right and that their latest performances have shown promise. They are an optimistic bunch down at The Valley.

Considered taking them tonight, but decided to go with the "over", really feel that we will see a few goals. Charlton have kept only one clean sheet in 12 and have conceded 13 this season, at a rate of almost two per game.

They might not come too early, I have uncovered some interesting stats, which may be of particular value to anyone trading, or betting "in running". Charlton have conceded 77% of their goals in the second half and Fulham have scored more in the the last 10 minutes than any other side in the Premiership. So, if you play the "over", do not panic too soon.

The photograph is of Bent scoring against Brentford, during the Bees mighty cup exploits last season, yes, they do concede on occasion.

4 points over 2.25 goals Fulham-Charlton asian line 1.85.

Back later.

Good Luck.

ELFSBORG ........

... travel to the Fredriksskans Stadium and a meeting with Kalmar.

Victory for the visitors will take them 2 points clear at the top of Allsvenskan, with just 4 rounds to play. They visit free scoring Hammarby next and feel sure that they will see this, as the "easier" tie.

Kalmar have won only 40% of their home games and have been stronger and happier on the road, this season. They have a VERY important and winable, Swedish Cup semi final in just 3 days time and whatever team they field tonight, that match is sure to be at the back of their minds. It is a chance to win some silverware and earn a european spot.

Elfsborg are unbeaten away from home (5-5-0) and have only lost once all season.

History is very much on their side, being unbeaten in all recent meetings. The level ball asian handicap looks a very strong bet indeed and is my confident selection.

5 points Elfsborg level ball asian line 1.83.

Back later.

Good Luck.

Sunday, October 15, 2006


There should be goals in this game.

Both sides are "over" in 4 of their 5 starts this season, each averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Last 4 h2h meetings have been over and the Barcelona defensive cause has not been helped by the absence of Carles Puyol, the heart and soul of the team.

Would not put anyone off taking the away on the asian handicap, Barce are sure to be a little distracted by the Chelsea game in midweek and the Real Madrid derby next weekend. However, it's the "over" for me.

4 points Barcelona-Seville over 2.25 goals 1.74 asian line.

Good Luck.


..... are my pick in the live SKY TV offering.

Opponents Bolton, have ridden their luck at times this season and are never as strong away from their Reebok Stadium. Today they look set to be without Abdoulaye Faye and he will be a big loss.

Damien Duff showed a return to form for Ireland in midweek and he, along with the always dangerous and very speedy, Obafemi Martins, can give the Bolton defence all sorts of problems.

United have never lost at home to Bolton in the Premiership, with six wins and one draw and I feel they will extnd that sequence today. The level ball asian handicap looks the ideal option.

4 points Newcastle level ball 1.75 asian line.

Good Luck.

I strongly favour .......

Roma to win at Reggina today.

The 15 point deduction the home side suffered, meant their fate was sealed before the season began and they have already started to prepare for Serie B.

No new substantial contracts were renewed/extended, two key players were allowed to leave. The midfield is very weak and the defence a little slow, feel sure that Roma will exploit this and retain their position at the top of Serie A.

4 points Roma -1/2 ball 1.88 betfair.

Back later.

Good Luck.


..... too early, I have a small hangover and a tennis match in one hour !

Yesterday was frustrating, could have been very good indeed. My "long list", the matches I make my final selections from, looked pretty good, every match "eliminated" (4 of them) was a winner, still, it is always easier to pick winners when you do not bet.

I will post two quick selections here and be back at 14.00 cet.

To my mind Marat Safin should be favourite to beat Davydenko in Moscow, he will have the bulk of the support and despite their rankings, he is much the better player and will prove it next year and hopefully today. Marat has been writing a blog on the ATP site, as you might expect he is a little crazy and amusing, it makes a fun read, here is a link.....

In Superettan, Brommapojkarna simply have to and will beat relegated Qviding, victory will give them a fantastic chance of automatic promotion and they cannot let that slip against a team that seem to have given up.

3 points Safin to beat Davydenko Moscow tennis 2.02 betfair.
5 points Brommapojkarna 1.50 general .... unibet / bet 365. You should also find this on the exchanges a little later.

Good Luck.

Saturday, October 14, 2006


Steve Coppell can do, not only his club, but Manchester United, the team he spent much of his career as a player at, a big favour tonight, by taking something from Chelsea.

Nor sure that they can do that, but fancy them to keep the champions at bay, at least until half time.

Both sides have gone in level at the break in 3 of their 7 starts this season and under Jose Mourinho, the Blues are drawing 46% of all games at half time. Reading are well organised and it is sure that Coppell will have his tactics spot on.He is a first class coach and a gentleman.

Chelsea tend to struggle a little after International games, so all things considered anything above 2.25, or 44% for the ht draw, can be considered acceptable and we can do much better than that.

The current quote is 2.44 on the exchanges and that is likely to increase, nearer to kick off.

You may even find higher with some traditional bookmakers.

3 points half time draw Reading-Chelsea 2.44 +.

Good Luck.


Just a quick word about ...... you guessed it.......... Brentford.

The mighty Bees are now almost at full strength, only long term injury Lloyd Owusu is still missing.

When they have everyone available, they can put out a pretty strong starting 11. They just do not have any strength in depth.

I am not going to put this up as a selection, but they are capable of getting a result at Rotherham today. The only problem is, my friend has gone and the last time he saw them win away Thatcher was still PM, so maybe a draw.

Back later.


Eintract Frankfurt are unbeaten this season and can continue that run, when they travel to face Hannover.

The home side are without their skipper today, but more importantly they have not won at home since March and may struggle to preserve their status in the top tier of German football.

The problem is they do not win enough matches, just 8 wins in 40 starts, or one in five, that is simply not good enough.

Have to take the visitors +1/2 ball, when these two draw so many matches, the away team is unbeaten and Hannover have forgotten how to win (almost).

4 points Eintracht Frankfurt +1/2 ball asian line 1.70.

Back Later.

Good Luck.


... are in terrific form and I am going to stick with them for the difficult trip to Stevenage.

Several league managers were at the midweek win over St Albans and all were impressed. Leyton Orient boss Martin Ling was moved to voice "they were absolutely outstanding".

Scoring for fun and on a long unbeaten run, they have closed the gap on Oxford to just 4 points and will want to keep the pressure on. They are scoring over 2.3 goals per game and Stevenage are conceding almost 2 per match.

Hard to see there not being goals today, I did consider the "over", but D&R are in such a rich vein of form, they have to be my choice.

Saturday's are a bit of a rush, so it is not possible to write too much, back shortly.

3 points Dagenham level ball asian line 2.25

Good Luck.


Firstly I can clear up some team news here.

Jonathan Woodgate is definitely out for Boro, which will be a major blow as Andy Johnson is fit to start.

The pressure is really starting to mount on Gareth Southgate, 3 losses in a row to Blackburn, Sheffield United and Notts County, do not look good on your cv. Typical of the competitive nature of the Premiership, is that their only win has come against Chelsea.

They have only mustered two goals in six starts and conceded six in three home games.

The visitors are one of only two unbeaten sides in the Premiership and have a very strong squad now, with a host of internationals sitting on the bench. AJ is raving about the quality of chances that are being created for him and he looks sure to get a few today, especially without a top class central defender in opposition.

Do not see verton losing this one and they are my selection. Back later.

4 points Everton +1/4 ball asian line 1.71.

Good Luck.

Friday, October 13, 2006


Battle of the Burgs !

The home side are plenty short enough for this Bundesliga 2 match up, especially as they are without both their goalkeeper and a key defender.

Many people have told me that Freiburg are much better than their league position would suggest, that may well be the case. I also remember everyone saying that Leeds were too good to be relegated from the Premiership.

I did consider taking the away on the "asian", but opted for the "over". Last 4 h2h meetings and 8 of the last 10, have had 3+ goals and given the home sides defensive problems, it seems the sensible option. Both teams are over the 2.5 average for their respective home and away games this season.

3 points over 2.5 goals Duisburg-Freiburg asian line 1.82.

Good Luck.


Something has to give sometime with these two, but lets hope it's not tonight.

Reims are 100% at home in the league and 7-0-0 in all competitions, Tours are 100% away, but that's all losses, not wins.

The visitors will do well to take a point, or three, they are without a number of players, including three who are suspended. They are already being talked of as relegation candidates and it is hard to argue with that at present.

Reims averaging 2 goals in each home game, Tours conceding 2.2 away, so it should be 2-0, but a one goal win will suffice.

3 points Reims -3/4 ball asian line 1.82

Good Luck.


I really like the "over" in this game.

Bastia's matches have produced a league high 34 goals this season, at an average of 3.4 per game, that rises slightly to 3.5 for home fixtures.

The visitors are 2.9 for all matches and again, a little higher, 3.0, on the road.

Bastia have struggled quite a lot with injuries, but have a couple of players returning tonight, including influential captain, Pierre Andre. They are my idea of the likely winners, but I think the "over" is the better bet, just cannot see there not being two goals in this game, so 0-0 it is then.

Only recent meeting produced 5 goals, something similar would be nice.

5 points Bastia-Chateauroux over 2 goals 1.73 asian line.

Good Luck.

Good Morning ! ........

I will concentrate on football this afternoon and will be back with some picks at 16.00 cet.

For now I would like to concentrate on the tennis and pass on two bets. Andy Roddick's all round game looks to have improved and he is prepared to take a little off the serve and not just depend on that side of his game.

He faces Melzer today, whom he leads 5-0 in h2h meetings and 11-0 in sets, he will win, probably in two, but I have backed him to win the tournament at 2.875, he holds winning records over all the leading contenders and looks in fine shape.

You can almost guarantee a roller coaster ride of the emotions, everytime Elena Dementieva takes to the court. She can win or lose a match from any position, it is always fun to watch, but not great for the heart, her mother, who seems omnipresent, must have regular medical check ups, or a heart the size of a lion's.

Today she faces Patty Schnyder and these two have had some real battles over the years, h2h is 5-5, the Swiss player having the upper hand in the two meetings this year. She has won both and Elena has really struggled to handle her opponents game.

I would not be able to split the two and have to back Schnyder at the odds on offer.

4 points Andy Roddick outright Vienna tennis 2.875 general stanjames/vc bet etc
3 points Schnyder to beat Dementieva 2.44 betfair, may be bigger later.

Back later.

Good Luck.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

I think the line for the Superettan .......

..... relegation "six pointer"tonight, between Sundsvall and Vasby, has been set too high and that the visitors should be backed on the asian handicap.

GIF have been playing well at home in recent outings and a win today and over relegated Umea at the weekend, would secure their status in Sweden's second division.

However, Vasby are also fighting for their Superettan life and have a fixture with Umea still upcoming.

A point each would not be a total disaster, that would take the home side level with and the visitors to within two points of Degerfors, all three clubs would have two rounds left to play. Both will expect to beat Umea, so could easily have their fate in their own hands. Last day of the season Degerfors-Sundsvall.

GIF will be without the suspended Mikael Dahlberg, Vasby have no reported problems and a new coach. This handicap "feels"wrong and I have to side with the away team.

4 points Vasby +3/4 ball asian line 1.90.

Good Luck.

Been giving a lot of thought to .......

...... the Roddick-Gasquet match and have managed to convince myself that the American will win in straight sets.

His mighty serve looked in good shape yesterday and even without the concerns about Gasquet's health, see the earlier post, there is a definite feeling that the Frenchman has peaked and maybe, done enough for the year.

Andy has just completed a week of intensive training with Jimmy Connors in California, which has left him fired up and ready to play some tournament tennis. He has taken things easy since the US Open, but has 4 huge weeks coming up and a lot of points left to defend/play for.

His straight win odds of circa 1.54 seem acceptable, but I feel there is greater value in the 2-0 victory.

3 points Roddick to beat Ggasquet 2-0 sets 2.375 stan james, you may find bigger on the exchanges later.

Good Luck.


I was considering taking Richard Gasquet to beat Andy Roddick, as the odds seemed a little too high.

However, heard that he may not be 100% and then read this from someone who watched his opening match ............ What worries me, though, Richard seems to have a cold. He coughed, blew his nose in almost every change-over and fought heavily for his breath in long ralleys.

Of course he can still win, but thought the news was worthwhile sharing.

Back later.

I have been caught out .......

...... by the start times in the tennis today, already cost us one winner.

Going to suggest a small bet on Julien Benneteau to defeat Max Mirnyi. The Frenchman likes these indoor courts and has played a lot more games than his opponent this summer.

Mirnyi has only played 12 matches since Wimbledon, winning just 5 of them. They have met just once and that was at Roland Garros two years ago, so has little meaning, but our selection did win.

Benneteau opened with a strong 3&0 win over Roitman and looks overpriced at the 2.66 on offer. Not going to write any more, so will keep the stakes minimal. The match should start in an hour or so.

2 points Benneteau to beat Mirnyi 2.66 betfair. Kremlin Cup .... Moscow.

Back later.

Good Luck.


I was planning to post something now, but have to rethink the bet, just got some new information.

Will be back at 13.30 cet.


Joachim Johansson beat Nadal in straight sets, serving 17 aces.

At the "off" he was available at 5.60 on Betfair and the 2-0 Nadal was available to lay at 1.66. It really pays to leave it as late as possible on the exchanges, at least when the event is televised live, what I really mean is, when there is reasonable liquidity. On some events turnover is very small and you have to take what you can, when you can.

Anyway, forget Roddick or anyone else, JJ has the best service in tennis, it is a lethal weapon. At the risk of repeating myself, if he stays fit, 2007 will be huge for Johansson.

I will have my first post online at 11.00 cet, please check back.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006


I can pass on a good word for Joachim Johansson, who continues his comeback tonight.

After 15 months out injured, the massive serving Swede, who once served 51 aces in a match, that's over two sets worth (!), is approaching full fitness. He recently won a Challenger event, has looked very good in practice and played well yesterday in a 4&4 win over Davide Sanguinetti. Serving 11 aces, he gave up no break points.

He is planning to come out all guns blazing in 2007 and will be one to keep on your side.

Tonight he meets Rafael Nadal, it is a shame it is not someone else, but then we would not get such a big price. "Pim-Pim" can be backed at 4.35/ 4.30 pinnacle/unibet, it is likely that bigger will be available on the exchanges, it seems a fair price. If the comeback continues to go well, he will never be that price again to beat the Spaniard, except on clay.

Think I will go with the lay of Nadal 2-0 in sets, it will not be easy for Rafa to break him twice.

LAY 3 points Nadal to beat Johansson 2-0 sets 1.74 betfair ( exposure 2.12 points).

That is it for today, I have decided to pass on the final bet, which was to have been Greece on the level ball handicap. Some late news caused me to swerve this game.

Good luck.

Austria and Switzerland .......

..... are to co host the 2008 European Championships and are looking to foster good will.

The two meet tonight in a friendly international, that I feel will be VERY friendly. The Swiss are very much draw specialists and Austria really need a run of results.

A draw, will leave everyone happy and has already come in for continued support throughout the day. OK, some of that was my money, but not all, the odds have fallen across the board.

Suggest you join in the gamble.

2 points Austria-Switzerland draw 3.20 stan james and the exchanges.

Good Luck.

I am going to put up .......

...... four selections very quickly, with minimal comment and small stakes.

There is not really time for much else now and I have already posted three items today. Hope you will bear with me, all are wortwhile passing on .

Croatia-England, this will be very tight and neither can afford to lose. It should be a very cagey opening. I do expect an improved display from Steve McClaren's side, or is it El Tel's ? But that would not be too hard.

Cannot see anything other than a low scoring encounter and feel the half time draw is very fairly priced on the exchanges. England have gone in level after 45 minutes in their last two and we are looking at the hat trick.

2 points Croatia-England half time draw 2.08 betfair.

Back soon.

Good Luck.

ITALIA ........

I have to stick with Italy for their trip to play, an injury ravaged Georgian squad.

Arveladze, Kobiashvili, Gogua, Asatiani, Demetradze and Mujiri are all missing for sure, maybe one or two others. These are important players and several are seen as team leaders.

Italy took a while to get on top of the Ukraine and are still a little way short of their very best, but should have too much for, what is basically, a Georgian "b" team.

They will be keen to keep within 2 points of France, who face an easy looking tie against group whipping boys, Faroe Islands.

No slip ups from the visitors, away win. I will stick with the asian handicap, but also like the 0-2 scoreline, which is quoted at around 7.0 on the exchanges. This is the most common score in international matches, giving a margin of error and a degree of comfort.

4 points Italy -1.25 goals asian line 1.85.

Good Luck.