Friday, April 28, 2006

Money talks ........

Money talks in football, Real Madrid , argubly the richest club in the world, have won the European cup/ Champions League nine times.

Chelsea, with unlimited funds, are about to claim their second Premier League title in a row, 50 years after their only previous success. Manchester United, with their truly massive worldwide earnings in both sponsorship and shirt sales, had earlier dominated the league and are sure to continue to challenge. In an effort to compete, Arsenal have been forced to leave their beloved Highbury, move to the Emirates Stadium and even ditch the famous red and white shirts, at least for one year.

All this is fairly obvious, but in the lower leagues we can use this knowledge to our advantage. Look for "sleeping giants", clubs that have fallen on hard times but retained their supporter base and are showing signs of a revival.Most will eventually get back to their true position.

For example, Sheffield Wednesday, a premiership club in all but name, have managed to stabilize in the Championship and seem set to make a push to join "The Big Show" in the next year or two.

Carlise United, out of the football league twelve months ago, yet still getting gates approaching 10,000, are about to enter Division 1 and who knows what else is possible.

Nottingham Forest, european champions not too long ago, are now languishing in the 3rd tier of english football, but have started to get their act together. Able to spend £700k on a single player (more than the total yearly budget for some teams at this level) and with gates approaching 30,000, it was only a matter of time. If they manage to get into the playoffs this year, they should be strong favourites to win them. The final at Cardiff would see them with a 50,000 following, a huge advantage over Colchester or Brentford who would struggle to take 20% of that figure.

Hull City were struggling to retain their league status only a couple of years aago, now they are established in the Championship. The rightful place for a team from the 6th biggest city in England and who were commanding gates in excess of 20,000 in the lowest league.

Who else can we look out for ? Surely Leeds United will regain their place in the top teir eventually. Swansea with a new stadium and large supporter base seem sure to reach the Championship and sooner rather than later. Likewise, Bristol City, the west country giants, are far too big a club to lie dormant in Division 1 for too much longer. It may also pay to keep an eye on Blackpool, they appear to have new owners and funding and with the ambitious gaming plans for the area, they could be a team on the up.

Of course the same is true in reverse for the smaller clubs, teams like Crewe, Wimbledon and Swindon, that have over achieved in recent years, will, eventually, find their true level.

If we look at this years Football League, the Abramovich billions have secured the title for Chelsea. In the Championship, Reading , with the Madejski millions, fine stadium and large potential catchment area, have walked away with the title. At the other end, the two teams with the smallest crowds, Crewe and Brighton will be playing at a lower level next year.
OK , Forest have not won Division 1 but may yet earn promotion, it took time to adjust and every other team is "up" for a game against them. Carlisle are easily the biggest club in Division 2 and are going up, probably as champions, tiny Torquay are struggling.

You see the pattern, there will always be exceptions, but on the whole it pays to follow the money.


Two selections for today .............
2 points CLERMONT -1/2 goal asian line 2.175
3 points STADE LAVAL 2.25 william hill

both teams need the points to try and preserve their french division 2 status.

Good Luck.

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