The timing was right with the Premier League post as the RVP transfer went through yesterday and 3.25 is now the top quote, in Brazil, Palmeiras won 1-0 and Flamengo again conceded at the "usual" time, which was perfect for anyone betting "in play" ( see foot of email).

I have one more game in Brazil to discuss today, along with a few words about Championship and League 1 football, including a strong early bet for the weekend and a team of interest in League 2.


......, but that is not really an option with the hosts, who have scored a very high 46% of all their goals this season in the first half, with a massive 29% between the 15th-30th minute.


We already have those very early bets ( June 19th) on Watford at big odds 66-1 to win and 14-1 for promotion and they look solid , the Hornets might need time, but the Pozzo family have a blueprint for success and achieved it in double quick time at both Udinese and Granada. They have already begun to ship the players in from the other two clubs, although most are Udinese players anyway and I suspect that this will continue, until they find the right combination/ blend for Watford . Last year Watford finished 11th, just eleven points off the palyoffs, so we are not talking about them needing huge improvement to get involved at the business end. Players like Alex Geijo with 28 goals in 60 Granada starts, Daniel Pudil with Serie A and Champions League experience last season, Almen Abdi ( 33 starts for Udinese last season) etc are going to bring a lot to the Championship and they have been brought in along with some really promising young talent like 19 yo Leo Beleck who scored plenty of goals for the Udinese B team and played 25 matches for AEK in Greece last season. Anyway, the Hornets are now down to 33-1 and 9-1 respectively, we have good value and should get some fun for our money.

I spoke about ......  PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Just a few words about ...... PREVIEW RESTRICTED  ......He could definitely have a 20 goal season with a little luck and that would make his 33-1 quote in the top goalscorer market look big.




I have two teams that I think will go very well this season and both are big prices, but at this stage I am not backing either and want to keep quiet about one until they make the two signings, a forward and central defender , that I believe are imminent. The other is Aldershot Town, they have picked up a couple of injuries to key players coming into the season and I am going to hold off on them for the time being. Long term readers might recall that I was very keen on them to do well through the early part of last season, when I wrote ahead of their opener ....It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.The Shots did start pretty well, winning on that first day of the season and again at now PL side West Ham United in the Carling Cup, but they struggled for consistency and it was not until the second half of the campaign that they really came on strong, posting three separate five match plus unbeaten runs in 2012, collecting an average of 1.9 points from their last 20 matches, which over the full season, would have seen them finish in third place. The Shots also did the double over fourth placed Southend and lost only one in five against Swindon, Shrewsbury and Crewe Alexandra ( three wins) all of whom are now in League 1.

They lost Darren Jones ( 42 starts at centre back) and Anthony Straker ( 44 starts at left back) in the summer, which are big negatives and another reason I am biding my time, along with those couple of injuries. However, it is not all bad news, far from it,they managed to get right back and team leader on and off the pich, Ben Heard to sign a new contract and that was considered huge by Holdsworth, who claimed to have made Heard's life a misery hounding him to sign a new deal. Deano also managaged to bring in Anthony Tonkin ( Oxford), Olly Lancashire ( Walsall), Guy Branston ( Bradford) and Troy Brown ( Rotherham), four very experienced defenders, also in are holding midfield pair Craig Stanley ( Bristol Rovers) and Josh Payne ( Oxford) and striker Craig Reid ( Stevenage), what I like about these, is that all played 20 + starts last season and all, apart from Stanley and Branston at clubs which finished higher up the league ladder than Aldershot. They should definitely be an upgrade and I understand they have settled in well, but I would like to see them myself first and I am going to try and get some extended highlights from the Plymouth game at the weekend, or failing that, go and see them play at home to Exeter next Tuesday. Holdworth has also been enthusing about the number of quality youngsters he has at the club, all in all, it looks good for the Shots and it was great for them that Deano turned down the Crawley job which was offered . Anyway, more about these after I have seen them, either on Monday or Wednesday. However, if you wanted to waste a couple of euros on them at circa 41.0 to win, or 9.0 for promotion, I would not try to stop you !

Good Luck.


Hosts already have a trophy in the bag having won the Copa do Brasil, but that will be little consolation if they do not haul themselves away from the drop zone and quickly, they have had a tough run of matches, with their last four starts coming against teams with an average league placing of 5 and they will welcome the visit of Flamengo, a nice mid table opponent, any respite will be brief however, as after today, Palmeiras play three of their next four on the road. They will clearly be targeting maximum points today and have probably got a little luck with this fixture, as, not only did the visitors take six points last week, which relieves any pressure on them, they have the small matter of the Clássico dos Milhões at the weekend, the huge derby game with big rivals Vasco and they will surely have one eye on that, the biggest game of the season for them. The visitors will be without Marcos Gonzalez in central defence  (11 starts), he is on international duty and has been influential in the last two wins and also holding midfielder Airton ( 9-1-0). They are missing a couple of other fringe players, one of whom would have probably been asked to cover for Gonzalez, so a bit of a problem area for Flamengo.

The home side are without Valdivia and Daniel Carvalho in midfield which are important losses, but Carvalho has tended to play a limited amount of game time ( averaging 50 minutes in his 11 outings) and Valdiva just 90 minutes once in only six league starts, so maybe are not as huge as they first appear. Young striker Maikon Leite is also out, but fellow front man Hernan Barcos is in good form with four goals in his last six outings. I really like Palmeiras here, they desperately need the points, Flamengo might well be distracted and I am sure no players will want to miss out on the weekend fixture and the only negative is that both Carvalho and Valdiva miss out, that is not enough to put me off, but I will scale down stakes slightly 1.25 units Palmeiras -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

If betting in "running" Flamengo have been vunerable either side of the break, with 48% of all goals conceded coming between the 31st and 60th minutes.

Good Luck.

Over the last 19 weeks I have previewed  over 420 events and put up 345 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 418.25 units and returns 523.49 units, a ROI of 125.17 % and a profit of 105.24  units, a 50 euro unit flat stake would have won 5,262 euros at an average of 277 euros per week . I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.

You can view five years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.

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Good Luck.