I was originally very keen on the MLS fixture tonight and eager to oppose Sporting KC, but the Earthquakes are struggling with strikers coming into the game and Alan Gordon who will probably be asked to play up front on his own, has limited game time in 2012 and has fitness concerns ,he is far from certain to last 60 minutes, let alone 90, so I will let it pass, so just golf for this email, but one nice price and one very strong red type selection to go along with the League 2 playoff selection from earlier.






-5 ELS

We already have the top ten bet for Justin Rose ( see below) and that looks safe ( touch wood), given that has a seven stroke cushion over the two players who are in a tie for 11th. So, I think that we can look at the tournament completely fresh. Regular readers will know that I now consider Luke Donald the best Round 4 player out there, the progress he has made over the last 12-15 months in this part of his game ( closing out tournaments) has been astonishing. I spoke ahead of the sunday round at the Transitions Championship last month and wrote.... but a few words about Luke Donald , he is one of nine playes withing three strokes of the lead, the englishman is currently on -8, three strokes behing joint leaders Goosen and Furyk. Donald has extra incentive to win today as victory will see him return to the world number one ranking.He is a fine sunday player ranked #1 on tour last year, with a 68.06 average and his record in contention is even stronger, improving his position on six of the seven occasions he started Round 4 inside the top ten.Donald is a strong early season player, posting a win and runner up spot in his first five outings last year and a second place inside three starts in 2010. He showed his first form of the year with a 6th place finish in the WGC event last week and will be looking to follow up a win there for his countryman Justin Rose.
He is not quite firing yet, but a second week in contention should have him primed to go well today and given his R4 record, we can expect him to move up the leaderboard and put pressure on those above him.I can find minus points for all of the other golfers in contention and at circa 9.0/9.20 on the betting exchanges, we could risk a very small bet on Donald.

Donald shot a bogey free 67 that day to win the Transitions and it was the performance of a champion, which Donald now clearly is and the "bottler" accusations should never be repeated. He has since followed up with a 3rd place in the Zurich and 6th in the Players Championship and is no looking to repeat in this tournament he won in 2011 and finished runner up in 2010, he looks set to post a third straight top 2 placing in this prestigeous event and that is very impressive.

I think that Donald will ( probably) win today, but my odds, as always in a 100% book, were roughly 1.65 Donald, 3.20 Rose, 17 Lawrie and obviously I couldn't  take the favourite at circa 1.50 max, which is very much not my thing in any case. He only neds a top 8 place to retake the world number one ranking, which is changing hands on a weekly basis at the moment, so will only be looking at first place today, but the same applies to Rose, who would move up to 5th in the world, a career high ranking should he win this afternoon. We already know that Donald is solid in Round 4 and Rose has not been a slouch on sunday this year either, ranking 11th on the US tour and equalling or improving his position when starting the final round inside the top 5 ( in contention) on two occasions. He won the big money WGC Cadillac title at Doral in March holding off Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy, shooting -4 for the last ten holes after a shaky start and perhaps even more impressively,  shot -5 for the last seven holes at Augusta, after being level par for that stretch over the first three days, to finish 8th at the Masters.
 Both leaders will be comfortable playing together, they have a good relationship and were paired together for the first two days. I think Rose offers a little value at 4.0 + on the exchanges and with Pinnacle to win a title that he really wants , we talked in the week about the years he spent here as a kid watching his heroes and his playoff defeat in 2007 was very painful, he will be extremely focused and Luke will have to be at his best to hold on, if you are already on the top ten selection, I suggest you take a little of that likely profit on this win bet.

TOP TEN FINISH : JUSTIN ROSE ( sent Wednesday night)

Wentworth has been toughened up in recent years and with that has come a return to English winners, with the last three all being "locals", if we can still refer to Luke Donald as such. He was raised just 25 miles away from the course in High Wycombe, so is very much a local., pretty much like the other two most recent victors Simon Khan and Paul Casey

Another player who perfectly fits the profile, having grown up in the South East and now playing pretty much exclusively on the PGA Tour, like Donald, Casey and last year's runner up Lee Westwood, is Justin Rose, having attended this tournament as a spectator through his teens, he was second here in 2007 losing in a playoff, was tenth two years ago and arrives in arguably his best ever shape, having won a WGC event this year,also  finishing eigth in the Masters and top ten in 10 of his last 19 starts worldwide, including two wins in the US. He played in the Matchplay last week and despite losing out to eventual winner Nicolas Colsaerts, he was arguably the most impressive golfer, playing 40 holes in 15 under par . Seeing friends Donald, Westwood and McIlroy at the top of the world rankings has really got him focused and in interview yesterday he said ....
"It's a big inspiration and motivation for me to try and match or even better the likes of Rory, Lee and Luke," said Rose. "They are really setting the benchmark in the game right now and I honestly believe I could be up there with them.
"I am really happy with the consistency of my performances this year and this means I can work on just maintaining my game at a good level rather than searching for the answer to some problem or another. I certainly feel good about my chances."
"To win our flagship event against the cream of European golf and on a great course would be a wonderful launch-pad for the rest of the year as Luke showed in 2011.
"The course really suits my eye and my swing and I really like the changes they have made this year. Returning the 12th to a par-five is a really sensible move and the changes they have made to the 18th in taking out a bunker on the right and extending the landing area for the drive will make it a much more exciting hole.

I expect him to go close and will take 1.25 units Justin Rose top ten finish 2.875 + there is some 3.0 on offer.

Good Luck.