Friday, October 09, 2009



We are in a very exciting position with the Sergio Garcia bet, where after just one round the 9.0 chance is now trading at circa 2.50 ! Profit is/was there (depending upon when you are reading this) to be taken, if that is the way you wish to go.

Two bets today, which I will discuss briefly and the next email will be with you tomorrow morning.



Brentford are going through a very "funny" spell at the moment, the central defence is really struggling, where Bennett who led by example last season is having a nightmare. Think Jamie Carragher at Liverpool, a team leader who the others look up to, who can do little right. Also, they are starting games very slowly and only waking up after the break, usually when they are a goal or two down. I have reproduced last saturday's match report from a Bees fan (GPG forum) below, it pretty much sums things up and I have highlighted a few points.

Bees will get things right soon, but have a very long trip North to face a team who at least offensively, I like and have discussed recently. Hard to see my beloved team keeping a clean sheet, but remember, they are likely to come on strong after the break, so the "over" looks the right way to go in a fixture that traditionally produces goals.

5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.05 asian line.



Shamrock beat Bohemians last week and now have a two point lead at the top of the table, with just a handful of games remaining. However, they can hardly afford to ease off, as Bohs have a superior goal difference and an "easy" home game tonight, so Rovers have to go to Derry and look for all three points. They have not conceded in two visits here (one win) and will be buoyed by the home side's injury list with Clive Delaney--Back. Stephen Gray--Ankle. Peter Hutton--Groin. Ger O'Brien--Ankle. Sammy Morrow--Ankle. Tommy Stewart--Knee. Mark Farren--Illness, all missing out, at least six of those seven can be termed regulars.

Huge game for the away side and given the team news, we can only lean one way.

7 points Shamrock Rovers -1/4 ball 1.86 asian line.

Good Luck.

We've got to defend much, much better and stop gifting teams one, two and three goal headstarts. Three home games in a row now that we've fallen behind and we have got to put an end to it.

The first half was Bristol Rovers all over again. Opposition who did nothing special but broke forward into our box with pace, and took their chances. They make it look so simple but we don't pick them up. Neither Bennett or Phillips got close for the first and I think Bull could have reacted better. There were questions raised at the start of the season about our defence lacking pace, yet again players are running in behind our defence and this was typified by the second goal.

Swindon were another side who knew that if they were well organised and didn't make mistakes then we wouldn't really threaten, and they were right. Too often Charlie was asked to win headers against a centre back twice his size, perhaps Bull should not aim his kicks in his direction.

The wind was making a difference but again we were devoid of ideas, the balls through the middle were either over hit or misplaced whilst Amankwaah had the better of Wood all game.

Again second half we improved and Saunders upped his game and was able to run inside while Cort was able to hold it up or at least flick it on to Charlie. Turning point was Charlie's miss. Saunders curled a beauty that came off the post and fell to Charlie with an open goal but he hit it on the bounce and it flew over. It was head in hands stuff. Wood had a header at the back post that came off keeper and post and the improvement was there to see.

Then the goal, Cort showed good quality and touch and a finish into the bottom corner and we all thought game on. But three minutes later its poor again and we commited far too many forward. Phillips looked dead on his feet at the end and was beaten far too easily although a great finish. Not sure what happened for the third, did Charlie head it/ was it deflected? Seemed a little strange but again why do we have to wait til we've conceded to produce the goods. Last ten we huffed and puffed but it looked unlikely, one thing I noticed was fitness levels. I thought they looked tired and I wonder whether our fitness levels need to improve now that we've gone up a league. A lot of the players were blowing at the end, not a criticism just an observation and perhaps more fitness work is required.

It is the same old mistakes, poor defending and weaknesses to pace and movement. Bennett can hack it against League two strikers who are immobile and like a battle, but strikers with a bit of pace have really had the better of him. We've got to cut out the errors, we will get nowhere until we sort this out and I think Scott needs to brave and drop Bennett and put Wilson in the middle and Foster right back.

There were some positives though, Bean was again excellent and I thought him and Saunders drove the team forward in the second half. Cort had probabaly his best game, got a goal and linked with Mac well. Until Strevens is back this should be the partnership because Weston isn't a striker and I don't think Kabba is the answer.

Today showed that we aren't a bad side and we can play some decent stuff but until we cut out the errors and defend better we are going to be mid table. I'm sure the stats will show we had more possession and shots but Swindon took their chances and that is what counts and something has to change.




Here is a bet I am hoping will still be giving us a warm glow through the long dark winter months.

Sergio Garcia has had a stinker of a year, little has gone right for him on or off the golf course and he openly admits he was not in a good frame of mind after splitting with his girlfriend early in 2009.

We have seen recent signs that he might be about to hit top form and in four events since missing the cut in the USPGA , he has shot 15 from 16 rounds under par and recorded top 6 finishes in two tournaments. Since when he has had almost a three week break to recharge his batteries and will play this week refreshed and I believe, very hungry.

This is Sergio's time of year and last October he won the Castellon Masters in Spain and two weeks later the HSBC event in Shanghai. Actually the last named was officially a 2009 tournament ,so in five standard european events, in a year about as bad as it can get, he is has finished 1-8-7-11-13 ! He is clearly very comfortable this side of the Atlantic and especially in his homeland, where he is a multi winner.

The course at the Centro Nacional de Golf should suit Garcia and the spaniards tend to dominate events in their homeland filling 60% of the top ten places in recent tournaments. Forget King Carlos, Sergio rules Spanish golf and I favour him to put his subjects in their place this week.

5 points each way Sergio Garcia 9.0 Ladbrokes/Corals/Sportingbet outright 1/4 odds 12345 ...... 8.0 + is good IMO.

Good Luck.

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