Tuesday, November 05, 2013

I just don't know what to do with the blog ?

Since moving to the clubgowi website, the GOWI blog has been largely redundant, however, as I
have said several times previously, it has a soft spot in my heart, after closing in on eight years and 4,100 + posts and I am loathe to just let it die a sad and lonely death. 

I have been trying to find a place for it in the clubgowi "empire", but am struggling. However, in the meantime I am going to put occasional newsletters on here, so that you can get to see what the newsletter service is all about , without the content completely clogging up the website and readers missing something current, as opposed to a day or two old material.

With this, you can kick off your shoes, pull up a chair and read at your leisure.

This is ONE day's clubgowi content, sent to subscribers across three separate newsletters last Sunday, it is not an untypical weekend day, that is what they pay the big bucks (2.7 euros per day) for !

Sunday November 3rd
Another bit of a roller coaster yesterday, but a decent profit on the day and elsewhere, there were good results for almost all of our long term selections.

I will round up the golf and our long term position on Monday.

The later football matches will be covered in the first follow up newsletter @ 12.30 UK time and the NFL in the final update @ 15.00.
Premier League:Cardiff City- Swansea City

This is big, the first ever South Wales, Premier League derby and it will have been drummed into both sets of players how important this match is (only a couple of Welsh players in each squad), but I think Cardiff with homefield advantage, talismatic team leader and fiercely patriotic Craig Bellamy back in the squad and who are better set up to play in matches like these, have the edge. The Bluebirds battle for every ball, are very disciplined and organised under Malky Mackay (as long as the owner stays out of things) and Bellamy, who was born in the city, can be key with his huge experience of derby games in Glasgow, Manchester, Liverpool and the North East, I expect him to be influential today.

Swansea are the better team, but have played far more football already this season, have looked short of their best and remain without Welsh left back Ben Davies whom we discussed in the preview of the Swans-Hammers match last weekend ....

City were not at their best on Thursday night in the Europa League and whilst they did rotate their squad a little, several key players will have played in both and they have not looked as fluid as for most of last season. The Michu/ Wilfried Bony partnership is not yet firing and I have my doubts about it, as the Ivorian striker thrives on a quickly played long ball and that is just not the City style, but time will tell. Swansea have won two of their four starts after playing in Europe, but they came against a poor Crystal Palace and out of form, at the time, West Bromwich Albion and I expect things to be tougher today and it will be very hard for City not to have at least one eye on next week's first ever Premier League South Wales derby, with arch rivals Cardiff City. It is tough to explain exactly how big a deal that is for both clubs and especially the two sets of supporters. The hosts seem likely to still be without much admired central defender Ashley Williams ( one win and nine goals conceded in the four PL matches he has missed in the last two seasons), he returned to trained this week, but will probably not be rushed back, out for sure is left back Ben Davies (8-2-0) he has not missed a match in over 14 months and with so much City play starting from the back, is a big loss. With West Ham playing with two very wide men, this looks good news for the visitors, especially Stewart Downing on the right flank.

That ended 0-0 and Neil Taylor, who replaced Davies, was targeted from the first minute by the Hammers and especially Downing and it is very likely to be a repeat today with surely Bellamy running at the left back early and maybe Odemwingie later. I do not see a hugely motivated home side losing this and the handicap start is a bonus. 1.5 units Cardiff City +0.25 ball 1.93 asian line/Ibramarket.
Serie A:Udinese-Internazionale

We are not even a third of the way through the season, but with Roma, Napoli and Juventus already pulling away from the pack, Fiorentina in between the big three and Inter and only three Champions League spots up for grabs, it is hard to see how the visitors can be looking for anything less than three points in any game, at least until that gap is closed. Settling for a point is not really the Inter way nowadays in any case and they have already scored a whopping 15 goals in five away starts.

I did write in similar terms about them in midweek ....Inter have performed really well in these midweek Serie A fixtures, winning five of the last six, with the loss coming in what was really a meaningless fixture for them. This match is far from that and already four points off Champions League pace, they need a maximum return to put pressure on the top three, who play later in midweek. They arrive without fringe striker Ishak Belfodil who is suspended, but have scored a (joint) league high 23 goals this season, with ten different players contributing and I feel they will see the return of veteran defender Walter Samuel to the line up, after six months out and keeper as fair exchange and he will offer a calming influence to a young flat back 3 which has been conceding too freely recently. An even bigger plus will be having top class goalkeeper Samir Handanovic back between the sticks, they have conceded a goal every 212 minutes this season when he plays, one every 25 without him !

That ended 1-1, but the game was played in awful conditions and Inter lost Handanovic with injury at the break, but only the woodwork denied them the win, however, a draw was probably a fair result. Handanovic is in the squad and Javier Zanetti has travelled, the 40 yo has not played this season, but is looking for his 601st Serie A start after recovering from injury and just to have him in the group is probably a plus for Inter. Not much besides Rodrigo Palacios upfront, now they are without Mauro Icardi, who is replaced by 17 yo Romania George Puscas, who probably views Zanetti like his grandfather ! That leaves them looking very weak in the striking department, but they do pose a threat from midfield and we might see Fredy Guarin in the trequartista role.

Udinese are without suspended midfielder Giampiero Pinzi and injured right back Dusan Basta (9-0-1... who has been heavily courted by Inter) and have not looked so offensively threatening this season, as they did at the end of last, with just 11 goals from ten outings. It was a similar slow start last season, just three wins and 18 goals from 14 starts (1.28 per game), but then hit their stride with 1.71 goals per game over the rest of the campaign.

However, Udinese scored eight against Inter last season and it is hard to see them coming up short  today, the last four h2h meetings here have averaged 4.0 goals (all "over") and I once again see this likely to develop into something of a shoot out once that all important first goal comes. 1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.00 asian line/Ibramarket.
Udinese:Benussi, Brkic, Kelava;Bubnjic,  Danilo, Domizzi, Gabriel Silva, Heurtaux, Naldo, Widmer;Allan, Badu, Bruno Fernandes, Jadson, Lazzari, Merkel, Mlinar, Pereyra, Zielinski;Di Natale, Muriel, Nico Lopez, Ranegie.

Inter: 1 Samir Handanovic, 30 Juan Pablo Carrizo, 12 Luca Castellazzi, 2 Jonathan, 4 Javier Zanetti, 5 Juan Jesus, 6 Marco Andreolli, 18 Wallace, 23 Andrea Ranocchia, 25 Walter Samuel, 31 Alvaro Pereira, 35 Rolando, 55 Yuto Nagatomo; Mateo Kovacic, 11 Ricky Alvarez, 13 Fredy Guarin, 16 Gaby Mudingayi, 17 Zdravko Kuzmanovic, 19 Esteban Cambiasso, 21 Saphir Taider;  Rodrigo Palacio, 28 George Puscas.

Ligue 1 : Montpellier- FC Nantes

Nantes are the Ligue 1 surprise package this season, they will be no worse than 5th after this match regardless of result and a win could take them to within a point of a Champions League spot. They are a big club in France and are clearly looking to return to their rightful position challenging for honours, after four years in the Ligue 2 wilderness. They will want to keep the run going a slong as possible and arrive to face an opponent missing several key defensive players and with no real pressure on them, as they have clearly overachieved so far, in terms of what everyone else expected of them.

Hosts have been struggling for some time and won just twice (six draws ) this season and just four times in 22 starts over an eight month period, today they will be without ever present central defender Hilton ( 11-1-0..... Montpellier were 0-3-5 without him last season), left back Siaka Tiéné (6-2-0), defensive midfielder Joris Marveaux ( 7-0-0), long term injured right back Garry Bocaly and suspended midfielder Jonas Martin . They played pretty much a full squad in midweek and it backfired big time, with MHSC losing to Sochaux in extra time and picking up injuries and a red card and finishing the game, in gruelling conditions after 120 minutes, with eight men on the pitch ! That cranked up the pressure on boss Jean Fernandez, who has already been heavily criticised.

Nantes rested their key players in midweek and still managed to bounce back from a first league loss in five ( four wins previously) at home to Lille last week, to defeat Lorient in the cup.Key striker Djordjevic, winger Gakpe, both starting central defenders and midfielder Veretout, all sat out and now return refreshed and ready for action. 1.5 units Nantes +0.25 ball 1.93 asian line/Ibramarket.

Montpellier: Jourdren, Pionnier - Congré, Di Stefano, Mézague, El Kaoutari, Deplagne, Jebbour, Assoumin - Dabo, Sanson, Stambouli, Saihi, Cabella - Mounier, Herrera, Tinhan, Camara, Bakar, Montaño.

FCN : Riou, Zelazny, Aristeguieta, Bangoura, Bedoya, Bessat, Cichero, Cissokho, Deaux, Djilobodji, Djordjevic, Gakpe, Nicolita, Pancrate, Touré B., Trebel, Veigneau, Veretout, Vizcarrondo.

Good Luck.

There is a second follow up email scheduled for 15.00, I will probably cover three games, but notes will be brief and will only focus on NFL , so, if brevity and American Football is not your thing, no need to wait !

MLS Cup Playoff: Houston Dynamo-New York Red Bulls
Operation recovery mission ! 

The headline is a little misleading, as Dynamo do not owe us anything and we already have the money back from their recent regular season season loss to Red Bulls, which I previewed in detail and which is reproduced at the foot of the email.

New York won that 3-0, but the margin of victory was meaningless, the visitors led inside seven seconds ( the fastest goal in MLS history) and that allowed them to sit back, the one option that they did not really have going into the match, so everything was off kilter. Dynamo made a decent fist of it, 61% possession and winning 20-5 in terms of attempts on goal and if they had found an equaliser, they would probably have gone on to win, as it was, New York scored on the break after another hour of home pressure and the match was effectively over.

Now we are in in a two match, home and way, knockout competition and that suits Dynamo who are old hands and very experienced at these playoffs and I expect some revenge. Of course New York can sit back today, they would be delighted to take a point back to the Big Apple, they are not really set up to play for a draw , but I feel they will try and will once again hand the initiative and a lot of the ball to Dynamo, who will have learned a lot from the last game and if they are not chasing from the first minute ( please not !), Houston can dictate the pace and tempo of the game a little better. Dynamo are 9-1 in playoff games at home since moving to Texas, I expect that to hit double digits and we get a better price now than two weeks ago! 1.5 units Houston Dynamo -0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Ibramarket.

Brazil Serie A:

I have REALLY had a good look at the Brazilian matches, including "in play" stats, but cannot come up with anything I am particularly keen on, or what looks over priced.
So I will have to pass.

La Liga : Malaga-Real Betis

Hosts have not scored in four starts, but were unfortunate not to win at Espanyol in midweek, where they enjoyed 61% possession and were denied twice by the woodwork and several more times by home keeper Francisco Casilla. They were motivated there to bounce back from that frightful 5-0 home humiliation by Celta Vigo last week and the desire to do so with be cranked up still further today, back in front of their own supporters. Malaga will be without striker Mounir El Hamdaoui (8-3-1), who missed out in midweek, but have no other new injuries. Centre back Sergio Sánchez (9-0-1) and winger Fabrice Olinga ( 5-0-0) returned against Espanyol and coach Bernd Schuster suddenly has a few more options and this is a huge game for him and his team.

Betis have not scored in two matches themselves, but missed a penalty at home to Levante on Thursday, which means they come into this not only disappointed, but with 48 hours less recovery time and having played an hour with ten men, after the first half dismissal of right back Francisco Javi Chica (10-0-0), who will miss out tonight along with a whole host of team mates. Which include centre backs Antonio Amaya (9-0-1) and Paulao (8-0-0), first choice keeper Guillermo Sara, striker Rubén Castro (34-18-8 last season), midfielders Nosa Igiebor (7-1-0) and Lolo Reyes (5-0-0), plus left back Dídac Vilà. That is eight players, all of whom would have been pushing for starts if fit/available. 1.5 units Malaga -0.5 ball 2.12 asian line/Ibramarket
Malaga: Kameni, Jesús Gámez, Weligton, Antunes, Camacho, Portillo, Santa Cruz, Anderson, Tissone, Willy, Angeleri, Duda, Eliseu, Sergio Sánchez, Samuel, Juanmi,
Fabrice, Sergi Darder.

Betis : Andersen, Javi Montoya, Caro, Jordi Figueras, Perquis, Nacho, Juanfran, Steinhöfer, Cedrick, Matilla, Nono, Verdú, Xavi Torres, Juan Carlos, Vadillo, Braian, Chuli , Jorge Molina.

Good Luck.

Very brief notes, but three selections and also a big odds suggestion which has a real chance of collecting.

Next newsletter will be at 10.00 UK time Monday morning.

1.75 units San Diego Chargers to beat Washington Redskins 1.952 Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line.

We discussed the Redskins on opening day when I wrote ... This is an incredibly interesting game. Redskins introduce a number of rookies in key areas and quarterback Robert Griffin III, who took the Skins from 5-11 in 2011, to 10-6 last season in his rookie year, returns to action after his ACL injury last January. RG3 has not taken a single snap in any game since then, which is over eight months and he starts having missed all of pre season, which is, if not kind of unheard of, very unusual. The injury/surgery to his right knee was similar to those which kept Tom Brady out of 2008 ( Brady started seriously dating Gisele Bundchen at this time, so did not waste his time !) and RG3 also missed his 2009 college season with his first such injury. Both underperformed slightly ( by their own very high standards) the first year back, but were better than ever the following season. So, we can expect RG3 to be rusty and short of match practice, to favour his knee slightly and to fall a little off his form of last season, at least for a week or two.

Skins will start with second-round draft pick David Amerson, at right cornerback and sixth-round pick Baccarri Rambo, at free safety. The speed of the Eagles and they are as quick as any team in the NFL, is going to give them a debut to remember and the pair will have their work cut out and the speed of play will also come from the tempo and pace that new Eagles coach Chip Kelly likes to play at.

They lost that, conceding 33 points and whilst they have won twice, they have allowed an average of exactly that per game ( ok, only 32.7) and have only kept the Raiders (see below) to under 27 points. Last week they not only took a heavy beating from the Broncos, but RG3 had a night he will not want to repeat, he suffered some real punishment and a late heavy tackle saw him leave the game with an injured left knee. We already (see above) know about his knee issues and all the talk this week has been almost exclusively about trying to give him extra protection and less about how to win a ball game. Chargers are coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare, Redskins just one, much of which was spent licking their wounds.
1.5 units Philadelphia Eagles +1 point (@ Oakland Raiders ) 1.96 Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line.

0.5 unit HT/FT double result Oakland Raiders HT/ Philadelphia Eagle FT 7.0-8.0

The Eagles quarterback merry-go-round ( see last Sunday's notes) continues and we have Nick Foles back at the helm. I was not going to "invest" in Philly and Chip Kelly this week, after the uncertainty over the team leader and two disappointing performances, but not much has gone their way in terms of luck and the more I looked at this match up, the more I came to the conclusion that they would end up the winner, albeit with a bit of a roller coaster ride along the way. I am not sure how Oakland beat a poor imitation of the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, with Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor posting only 10 completions, from 18 attempts, for 88 yards through the air, which will win you nothing, but he did also had a 93 yard run from scrimmage, the longest by a QB in NFL history, with the first play of the game !  The Raiders came blasting out of the blocks and led 21-3 at the half , but rode their luck to hold on to that lead, after being outscored 15-0 in the second half. Oakland are +39 points before the break -53 points after it, over their last four starts and have been held scoreless in the second half in three of those games. If Philly can stay close, they should end this one the stronger, especially as they outscored opponents 31-3 in the final quarter in their last two wins.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Case Keenum starts his second ever game for Houston, he is already a fan favourite after setting the NCAA all-time passing record at the University of Houston, he was true to those roots in his first game, with 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown, six completions of over 25 yards and all against unbeaten Kansas City.

They are going to be throwing the ball that's for sure, whereas Colts quarterback Andrew Luck likes to run and with Houston missing Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Cushing, that is likely to be the case today ( in three high scoring wins over the 49ers, Seattle and Broncos, they only averaged 191 yards of passing).Especially as the Texans have the best pass defense in the NFL, but are 28th against the run. So expect Trent Richardson, Donald Brown and Luck to be running from the backfield far more often than Houston. A really interesting match up.

Pinnacle have a prop bet, Luck +29.5 yards passing v Texan's QB's, so we need Keenum , or whomever replaces him ( and the crowd would riot unless he was injured) to throw 30 yards more than Luck, well two things, if it is close both are going to stick with their preferred game plan, Colts will only go solely through the air late if trailing and by then, we could be out of sight. If Colts are ahead, they will run even more to kill the clock, in that scenario ,Texans will pass more.

I doubt that all of you will get on , but I have to put this up, 1.25 units Texans QB's -29.5 passing yards 1.926 Pinnacle Sports and as an alternative, 1.25 units Houston to score over 21.5 points 1.91-1.95 general quote.

Good Luck.

Current Month
Total bets    24
EUR    13 200
Profit / Loss
EUR    +3 623
ROI    127.43%

Current Year
Total bets    1117
EUR    580 645
Profit / Loss
EUR    +95 443
ROI    116.43%

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