Ligue 2 betting preview : Chateauroux-Dijon and so much more besides ....

It is ages since I posted an active preview on the GOWI blog, but I have one for you today (see

below). Over an average week, clubgowi preview about 28-30 matches/events and about 10 % of them are free to view, so 2-3 at most, which is not much, but is only meant as a sample of the full daily newsletter service. Most of this free content is posted either on the clubgowi website, or the free newsletter, the other circa 25 previews are only ever available to subscribers.

In my opinion they get far more than just 28-30 "picks" all previews are similar to the one below and contain a lot of information for not very much money. Anyway please read it and if you find it interesting, I can also point you towards a few more recent (and one old) articles of note......

This explains how the match previews are set out and what they usually contain.
 

Big news about our sponsor and their exciting new product, including detailed screencasts.

Free to view content....what to expect. 

The most amusing person I know.

If this is your first visit to the clubgowi website.

My experience of Sportmarket Pro. 

Why bet asian handicap lines ? 

You bet, you need Sportmarket Pro.

 

Variance and a lesser known footballing hero. 

France Ligue 2:

Chateauroux- Dijon

The hosts have been proving tough to get right, ahead of their last home start, a relegation scrap with Istres I wrote ....

We seem to discuss Istres almost every week and have done pretty well in their games , the most recent preview is reproduced right at the foot of the page. This is a little similar, in that again, we have two struggling teams and even at this early stage of the campaign , it is hard to see this as anything but a relegation "six pointer". Both Chat and Istres have been in a relegation scrap, at least mentally, for 12 months and since the turn of the year, are 8-9-17 and 6-10-18 respectively, that would see them collect 37 and 31 points over the full season, 42 points is the least any team has totalled and survived in Ligue 2 ( 11 seasons), so you can see , both are up against it. Hosts are without suspended central defender Massamba Sambou (12-1-0) tonight and they have conceded 13 goals in the last five matches he has missed , including nine in three at home. His loss will be hard felt anyway, but especially so with fellow centre back Kévin Afougou out injured along with winger Christian Kinkela, they are short of options at the back, especially in the middle and have only named four defenders in their squad this evening, including two 20 year old left backs.

They won that reasonably comfortably 2-0, they might not have beaten much, but Istres have started scoring ( four in both a start before and since) and to keep them out, short of so many experienced defensive options was impressive and Istres have boosted the formline since with a win at Lens last night. Last week Chat equalised deep, deep in injury time away to Laval, where they remained without Sambou, Afougou and Kinkela (see all above), plus defensive midfielder Luis Ramos (13-0-0) , his cover in Elie Ehue and striker Kevin Dupuis (10-3-0).  That was the fifth road game running they had conceded two or more, including to lower league opposition in the cup, they are defensively suspect and even back at home, that remains a major concern IMO. They are a very decent 4-2-2 at home, but the wins have come against largely lowly opponents and in their two defeats they conceded six goals to Tours and Caen , teams on a similar level to tonight's visitors. They also conceded and trailed twice at home to Le Havre whom I also see as one of the stronger teams in Ligue 2 despite their slow start to the campaign and I can again see the hosts struggling this evening. They do get Afougou back today, but are still missing all the other players listed above and options remain very limited, last week two defenders were playing out of preferred position and there should be joy here for Dijon, who have scored two or more on their last four visits.

We have not previewed Dijon for some time, but ahead of a win over Auxerre I wrote...Dijon are unbeaten in five and have kept a cleansheet in four of those, which is impressive after conceding ten goals in their opening four competitive fixtures. Much of the credit for this goes down to two new keepers in Benjamin Lecomte (on loan from Lorient) and Florent Perraud, who was signed from Sedan, the pair have started the last five games between them, replacing Baptiste Reynet, who is clearly well thought of, as the youngster has moved up to Ligue 1, but defensively they look more solid and happier, with either of these two between the sticks. Coming into the season a shortage of midfield options to play alongside Sekou Baradji was identified as a problem and addressed with a couple of promising season long loans. It is hard to quantify how important Baradji is, he missed those first few games of the season, when Dijon were all at sea and they also conceded nine goals in the four matches he sat out last season, but they did beat Tours 2-0 here last Friday without him.Up front Florin Bérenguer, Julio Tavares, Koro Koné and Grégory Thil, give them as many alternatives as anyone at this level.

They went on a bit of a run after that and were unbeaten in ten, with seven cleansheets before losing 2-0 at leaders Metz last month, getting straight back on track they have taken seven points from their last three starts and a win this evening might well see them enter the Christmas break inside the top three. The situation regarding Sekou Baradji (see above ) was odd, he appeared to fall out of favour and then got injured(?), maybe he always was, but returned after the defeat at Metz, which is a bit of a coincidence, anyway, IMO, they are much stronger with him in the line up. Now the bad news, Dijon played on Monday and we have made a habit of avoiding teams who have played in the televised fixture and then on Friday, as the quick turnaround has proved devilishly difficult to overcome, so, I am approaching this bet like a "dead man walking", but just cannot resist, as I feel they match up incredibly well with Chateauroux.

Rather than discuss who is missing for Dijon, I feel the players that the coach has left out of the squad by choice, tells us more about the options available, Florin Bérenguer (8-1-2), Florent Mollet (12-0-1)  and Jordan Marié (10-0-0) have all been left out of the 16, they made 37,36 and 15 (only joined in late January) appearances respectively last season. Three regulars who now cannot get into a 16 with 3-4 players missing through injury, the trio would walk into many other teams at this level and is a clear sign of the upgrade which has taken place at Dijon. 1.5 units Dijon -0.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Ibramarket.

Châteauroux : Bonnefoi, Milosavljevic - Nestor, Bain, Fournier, Obiang, Afougou - Tainmont, De Freitas, Guerriero, Filkor, Maboulou, Tait - Bourgeois, Makengo, Garita.

Dijon : Perraud, Basilio - Bamba, Diallo, Paye, Rémy, Souprayen - Cissé, Mulumba, Baradji, Gastien, Philippoteaux, Amalfitano - Koné, Tavares, Babit.

Good Luck.

Yesterday's clubgowi newsletter ....

Most of the sample newsletters posted on here are from day's when results have gone

well, it doesn't really matter, it is more the actual preview as opposed to the results I am trying to promote in any case. However, in the interest of trying to give a true sample, I will also post a cross section of the bad and average days too, yesterday was one of the latter I suppose, as we had two winners and two losers.....

 

Thursday December 12th

The NFL game makes little appeal today, so just Europa League.

Next email will be at the later time of 10.45 UK time tomorrow, when there will be just one email, with the main focus as usual on Ligue 2, the schedule for the rest of the weekend is .....

Saturday 14/12

Email #1 @ 10.00 UK time with a look at Premier and Football League.

Email #2 @ 13.30 with all the evening/overnight action

There might also be a third email, I will update the situation when I send the Saturday morning notes.

Sunday 15/12

Email #1 @ 10.00 will focus on afternoon matches.

Email #2 @14.00 Everything else, including NFL.

UEFA Europa League:

Maribor-Wigan Athletic

This will be Uwe Rosler's first game in charge of Wigan, it will be difficult for his new team to progress to the knockout stage, as they would need to win and also hope that Rubin Kazan, who have nothing left to play for, do likewise away to Zulte. Regardless of that, Rosler will want to start on the front foot and perhaps a win and exiting the competition would be the perfect outcome, as it has been made clear to the German coach that at the very least, a playoff push is expected this season and a return to the Premier League within 18 months. No pressure there then, with Athletic currently languishing down in 14th place and facing a big derby game with Bolton Wanderers on Sunday. The Latics have lost their last five and conceded two or more in the last four and they need a result more than a performance at present. Further incentive is the 1,000 + group of travelling fans that the new regime will be looking to impress and get on their side from the off.

We discussed Maribor very briefly ahead of their home game with Zulte Waregem last month ....

I was originally keen on Maribor at home to Zulte Waregem who have played poorly in the competition and seem on their way out, but the losses of right back Martin Milec (18-3-4), left back Matic Crnic (15-3-5) and striker Jean-Philippe Mendy (22-11-1) for the hosts are huge , it will probably mean a key midfielder covering at the back, which will them weaken them in the middle too and it is hard to see them keeping the visitors out if the away team "try".

We landed a nice bet at circa 3.20 there , with Zulte winning 1-0, Maribor are currently fourth in the group, but could still finish 2nd with a win, but would also need Rubin to win, if news comes through that the Belgian side are ahead, motivation might drop and their attention turn to a weekend match with Koper , who trail Maribor by two points in a close title race, with four clubs separated by just three points at the top of the table. Their last two home games have given cause for concern, with 7 goals conceded, but they have pledged to go all out for the win, feel they have progressed since they last met Wigan and have no major injory concerns coming into the match.But Jean-Philippe Mendy (see above) has played only 17 minutes in the last six weeks and is struggling to get rid of a viral infection. Wigan winger James McClean (22-0-0 all comps) is suspended and striker Grant Holt (18-2-1) is being rested, but on paper they have a squad superior on every level , I am not surprised that Holt was left at home, he is not really in the Rosler mould, at least at present and he will want the veteran from man to lose 5 kilos and quickly. It looks like a 4-3-3 for Athletic with McManaman, Fortune and Powell upfront and they should have too much pace and movement for Maribor. 1.25 Wigan Athletic -0.5 ball 2.31 asian line/Ibramarket.

 
Wigan: Carson, Nicholls, Crainey, Shotton, Rogne, Boyce, Perch, Barnett, McCann, Watson, Gomez, McManaman, McArthur, Espinoza, Powell, Beausejour, Fortune. 

Fiorentina- Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk

 

We discussed Dnipro ahead of their comfortable win at Pacos de Ferreira earlier in the group...

Dnipro are fighting for the title in Ukraine, where Shakhtar and Dynamo look a little weaker this year and seem particularly well suited to playing on the road, having won 7 of their last 9 away days, including a 1-0 win at Pandurii on matchday one. They expected to beat a weakened Fiorentina at home in their second group game, but La Viola battled to a 2-1 win and  Dnipro will now be looking for a win to get back on track. Experienced european campaigners nowadays, they came through a group containing PSV and Napoli last season and have a real touch of class with offensive players Evgen Konoplyanka (12-3-1 domestically this season), Evgen Seleznev (13-8-0), Ruslan Rotan (11-0-7) and Roman Zozulya (13-5-4), all regulars in the Ukranian national team. Coach Juande Ramos will be motivated back in his part of the world and his team should win this with a degree of comfort.

They have fallen off the pace a little domestically, in a very strong league, but are about to start their Winter break and have had eight days to prepare for this and will be on holiday afterwards, so I expect them to want to end on a high and no need to leave anything in "the bank". This match will decide the group winner, but one point will get the job done for Fiorentina, three things about that, winning a Europa League group is never quite as important as in the Champions League, we know that Italian teams can sometimes go through the motions in such situations and finally, that the hosts have an important league game on Sunday and are coming off a tough loss in Roma. We can expect rotation from the hosts and I have to take a little on Dnipro with the handicap start. 1.25 units Dnipro +0.5 ball 2.04 asian line/Ibramarket.

 
Fiorentina: Alonso, Ambrosini, Aquilani, Borja, Bakic, Compper, Cuadrado, Fernandez, Ilicic, Joaquin, Lezzerini, Munua, Neto, Pasqual, Pizarro, Rodriguez, Roncaglia, Rossi, Ryder, Savic, Tomovic, Yakovenko.

Dynamo Kiev- Rapid Wien

 

I previewed Kiev's trip to Genk on the last group Matchday ...

These two met on Matchday 1 with Genk winning 1-0 in the Ukraine, that was a wide open contest in no way reflected by the scoreline, 2-2 or 3-2 would have been fairer and quite how Dynamo did not score, will have to remain one of life's great mysteries. That doesn't change the fact that the Belgian side are very tough to beat and motivated to do well in this competition. They are unbeaten in ten group games, having gone 3-3-0 last season and 2-2-0 this, but I suspect it might be tough to extend that record this evening, Dynamo are starting to find their form after an uncharacteristically sluggish start to their season and they have won their last three, including a trip to Thun (2-0), by a combined 9-1. There are few teams more experienced in European terms over the last three decades than Kiev, with only the very biggest names in football having played more matches and we should see them relax and play their natural game tonight. The two clubs hold a five and four point lead respectively over the other teams in this section and Kiev are not going to be helped by a point too much, which will change little, so they have little to lose and plenty to gain by opening up and looking for the win. Genk have conceded to both Thun and Raid Wien here and having watched the first leg, I would be stunned if they kept the visitors from scoring at the very least one goal.

The visitors were delayed by three hours leaving Kiev, but claimed not to be affected by that and were in very bullish mood and were talking about revenge for the first leg, a defeat which still "hurt" the players and was still spoken of in the dressing room. They are without suspended front man Dieumerci Mbokani (21-9-7 all competitions), but in fellow striker Andriy Yarmolenko (22-14-4) have a player at the very top of his game. I expect a very open game much like the first and favour goals.

Kiev led early, but lost 3-1, good for us of course, but it has meant they need a point tonight, Rapid can progress with the win and Austrian teams never seem to need a second invitation to attack in these type of games and with Dynamo happy to go toe to toe with most, this should again be an open encounter. Kiev are without suspended striker Dieumerci Mbokani (22-10-7) which is a loss, but they still have Yarmolenko (see above), who scored again in Belgium and who  is having a season to remember.

Key here for me is that Rapid are without starting defenders and will have to push forward and not adopt tactics which teams coming to icy Kiev at this time of year normally do. They will have to gamble and I expect to see gaps appear and a comfortable home win. 1.25 units Dynamo Kiev -1.25 goals 2.07 asian line/Ibramarket.

 

Valencia- Kuban Krasnodar

 

We discussed Valencia most recently ahead of a trip to injury hit Elche ....

We spoke about Valencia ahead of their trip to St Gallen earlier this month .... "I was pretty impressed by the hosts ( St G)in their very unlucky loss at Swansea City and was a bit shocked when they lost the first of their two matches against a generally out of sorts Valencia 5-1. St Gallen have scored five goals in winning their last two domestic games to get back to winning ways and with no league game for 17 days ( Swiss Cup match at the weekend), I expect them to give this a real go. Only three points will help them, a match against a big European name is motivation in itself , but Valencia proved in the first meeting that they are fully capable of punishing the Swiss side when the gaps appear. Los Che arrive without a few big names, including keeper Diego Alves (just one cleansheet in five without him this season), left sided Andrés Guardado (10-0-0 all comps), right back João Pereira (11-0-3 all comps) and right winger Sofiane Feghouli (12-1-1), that leaves them vunerable on both flanks."

They won that 3-2 and eight goals against the Swiss side, including three on the road missing half their starting line up is a good haul and whilst they are clearly a team in transition and one which is going to blow hot and cold this season, I have to take them today against a opponent short of quality options in the centre of the pitch. They have Alves and Guardado (see both above) back and striker Jonas (10-5-1... missed the last two league games) also returns and they look in good shape for this and I expect them to boss the midfield. the visitors have looked more comfortable away from the pressure of Mestalla and three points will keep them in top 4 contention, which is always a minimum requirement for them, irrespective of whom they have sold.

They lost that 2-1, which will have to remain one of life's unsolved mysteries, that had 25 attempts, half of them "good" ones, on goal and on another day, would have won by 3-4 goals. we touched upon the pressure they are under at Mestalla where the crowd do not care about finances and the terrible position the coaching staff have been put under, the supporters are used to winning and quick to press the boo button.

Anyway, Valencia have already won the group, they travel to Atletico Madrid on Sunday and host Real Madrid next week, with a Copa del Rey match which is still in the balance, sandwiched inbetween, I would nominate this as the least important of the four matches they will play in the next ten days . No Juan Bernat(17-1-2 all comps) at left back, Sergio Canales(20-2-3) in midfield, or Jonas (14-8-1) up front for Valencia and we can expect further rotation.The Russian side can still qualify, but need help from St Gallen, however a trip to a famous club should be motivation enough , they have no league game to worry about and they created plenty of chances at Swansea without seeing much of the ball in an earlier group game and it might easily be more of the same this evening. 1.25 units Kuban Krasnodar +0.75 ball 1.98 asian line/Ibramarket.

 
Valencia:Guaita, Alves, Joao, R. Costa, V. Ruiz, Mathieu, Gayà, J. Fuego, Éver, Parejo, Oriol, Piatti, Fede, Feghouli, Míchel, Pabón, Alcácer, Postiga

Good Luck.

Wednesday December 4th....

Just a quick update.

There is an incredibly important, exciting and interesting article about our sponsor Ibramarket, which you can find on this link on the clubgowi website.

I will also be posting a preview of one of tonight's Premier League matches on the website later this afternoon, for anyone interested.

We will also be updating the clubgowi results page, to include the November figures sometime in the next 24 hours, so look out for that too.

Details of the full service and how previews are set out can be found on the subscriptions page of the hugely informative, clubgowi website.

Good Luck.