Friday, December 20, 2013

Ligue 2 betting preview : Chateauroux-Dijon and so much more besides ....

It is ages since I posted an active preview on the GOWI blog, but I have one for you today (see
below). Over an average week, clubgowi preview about 28-30 matches/events and about 10 % of them are free to view, so 2-3 at most, which is not much, but is only meant as a sample of the full daily newsletter service. Most of this free content is posted either on the clubgowi website, or the free newsletter, the other circa 25 previews are only ever available to subscribers.
In my opinion they get far more than just 28-30 "picks" all previews are similar to the one below and contain a lot of information for not very much money. Anyway please read it and if you find it interesting, I can also point you towards a few more recent (and one old) articles of note......

France Ligue 2:
Chateauroux- Dijon
The hosts have been proving tough to get right, ahead of their last home start, a relegation scrap with Istres I wrote ....

We seem to discuss Istres almost every week and have done pretty well in their games , the most recent preview is reproduced right at the foot of the page. This is a little similar, in that again, we have two struggling teams and even at this early stage of the campaign , it is hard to see this as anything but a relegation "six pointer". Both Chat and Istres have been in a relegation scrap, at least mentally, for 12 months and since the turn of the year, are 8-9-17 and 6-10-18 respectively, that would see them collect 37 and 31 points over the full season, 42 points is the least any team has totalled and survived in Ligue 2 ( 11 seasons), so you can see , both are up against it. Hosts are without suspended central defender Massamba Sambou (12-1-0) tonight and they have conceded 13 goals in the last five matches he has missed , including nine in three at home. His loss will be hard felt anyway, but especially so with fellow centre back Kévin Afougou out injured along with winger Christian Kinkela, they are short of options at the back, especially in the middle and have only named four defenders in their squad this evening, including two 20 year old left backs.
They won that reasonably comfortably 2-0, they might not have beaten much, but Istres have started scoring ( four in both a start before and since) and to keep them out, short of so many experienced defensive options was impressive and Istres have boosted the formline since with a win at Lens last night. Last week Chat equalised deep, deep in injury time away to Laval, where they remained without Sambou, Afougou and Kinkela (see all above), plus defensive midfielder Luis Ramos (13-0-0) , his cover in Elie Ehue and striker Kevin Dupuis (10-3-0).  That was the fifth road game running they had conceded two or more, including to lower league opposition in the cup, they are defensively suspect and even back at home, that remains a major concern IMO. They are a very decent 4-2-2 at home, but the wins have come against largely lowly opponents and in their two defeats they conceded six goals to Tours and Caen , teams on a similar level to tonight's visitors. They also conceded and trailed twice at home to Le Havre whom I also see as one of the stronger teams in Ligue 2 despite their slow start to the campaign and I can again see the hosts struggling this evening. They do get Afougou back today, but are still missing all the other players listed above and options remain very limited, last week two defenders were playing out of preferred position and there should be joy here for Dijon, who have scored two or more on their last four visits.
We have not previewed Dijon for some time, but ahead of a win over Auxerre I wrote...Dijon are unbeaten in five and have kept a cleansheet in four of those, which is impressive after conceding ten goals in their opening four competitive fixtures. Much of the credit for this goes down to two new keepers in Benjamin Lecomte (on loan from Lorient) and Florent Perraud, who was signed from Sedan, the pair have started the last five games between them, replacing Baptiste Reynet, who is clearly well thought of, as the youngster has moved up to Ligue 1, but defensively they look more solid and happier, with either of these two between the sticks. Coming into the season a shortage of midfield options to play alongside Sekou Baradji was identified as a problem and addressed with a couple of promising season long loans. It is hard to quantify how important Baradji is, he missed those first few games of the season, when Dijon were all at sea and they also conceded nine goals in the four matches he sat out last season, but they did beat Tours 2-0 here last Friday without him.Up front Florin Bérenguer, Julio Tavares, Koro Koné and Grégory Thil, give them as many alternatives as anyone at this level.
They went on a bit of a run after that and were unbeaten in ten, with seven cleansheets before losing 2-0 at leaders Metz last month, getting straight back on track they have taken seven points from their last three starts and a win this evening might well see them enter the Christmas break inside the top three. The situation regarding Sekou Baradji (see above ) was odd, he appeared to fall out of favour and then got injured(?), maybe he always was, but returned after the defeat at Metz, which is a bit of a coincidence, anyway, IMO, they are much stronger with him in the line up. Now the bad news, Dijon played on Monday and we have made a habit of avoiding teams who have played in the televised fixture and then on Friday, as the quick turnaround has proved devilishly difficult to overcome, so, I am approaching this bet like a "dead man walking", but just cannot resist, as I feel they match up incredibly well with Chateauroux.
Rather than discuss who is missing for Dijon, I feel the players that the coach has left out of the squad by choice, tells us more about the options available, Florin Bérenguer (8-1-2), Florent Mollet (12-0-1)  and Jordan Marié (10-0-0) have all been left out of the 16, they made 37,36 and 15 (only joined in late January) appearances respectively last season. Three regulars who now cannot get into a 16 with 3-4 players missing through injury, the trio would walk into many other teams at this level and is a clear sign of the upgrade which has taken place at Dijon. 1.5 units Dijon -0.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Ibramarket.

Châteauroux : Bonnefoi, Milosavljevic - Nestor, Bain, Fournier, Obiang, Afougou - Tainmont, De Freitas, Guerriero, Filkor, Maboulou, Tait - Bourgeois, Makengo, Garita.

Dijon : Perraud, Basilio - Bamba, Diallo, Paye, Rémy, Souprayen - Cissé, Mulumba, Baradji, Gastien, Philippoteaux, Amalfitano - Koné, Tavares, Babit.

Good Luck.

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